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NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 13 (Thursday, December 1 - Monday, December 5)

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  • #16
    NFL

    Sunday, December 4


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    Sunday Night Football betting preview: Panthers at Seahawks
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    Seattle will be looking for some payback when Carolina comes to town after the Panthers eliminated the Seahawks from the playoffs last season.

    Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-7, 44)

    The Carolina Panthers may have to run the table to have a chance to return to the postseason as they prepare to visit the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday night in a matchup of the past two Super Bowl losers. Carolina, which finished 15-1 last season. is coming off a 35-32 loss at Oakland last week to drop into last place in the AFC South with a 4-7 mark.

    "We'll just keep fighting, keep playing," Panthers coach Ron Rivera said. "Now we still have an opportunity. We'll see what happens." Carolina has won only once in five road games and will be trying to win at one of the league's toughest venues -- Seattle is a perfect 5-0 at CenturyLink Field. The Seahawks are coming off a 14-5 loss at Tampa Bay -- a division rival of the Panthers -- in which they failed to score a touchdown for the third time. Still, Seattle owns a comfortable three-game lead over Arizona atop the NFC West.

    TV:
    8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

    POWER RANKINGS:
    Panthers (+1.5) - Seahawks (-4) + home field (-3) = Seahawks -5.5

    LINE HISTORY:
    The Seahawks opened the week as 6.5-point home favorites against their NFC rivals from Carolina and that line has been growing all week up to 7.5. The total hit the board at 45 and has inched down during the week to 44. Check out the complete history here.

    WEATHER REPORT:
    The forecast for CenturyLink Field is calling for plenty of clouds with a passing shower or two, standard Seattle weather. There will be minimal winds from the southeast between 7-9 mph and temperatures in the mid-30’s at kickoff.

    WHAT SHARPS SAY:
    "The Panthers were on a 22-2 SU run entering Super Bowl 50, but have now gone just 4-8 SU in their past twelve games. An emotionally draining loss at Oakland last week as Carolina overcame a 7-24 halftime deficit with 25 straight points to take a 32-24 lead in the second half before a narrow 32-35 loss. Carolina was an underdog for the first time all season in that game and narrowly covered the closing line as a 3.5-point underdog."

    WHAT BOOKS SAY:
    "The Seahawks are coming off their worst offensive performance of the season scoring only 5 points last week against Tampa Bay. We opened the Seahawks as 6.5 point favorites at home to the Panthers and bounced between the -6.5 and -7 all week until it finally settled at our current number of Seahawks -7.5, where the Seahawks are getting 60% of the action to cover."

    INJURY REPORT:


    Carolina - WR Kelvin Benjamin (probable, shoulder), DT Kawann Short (questionable, back), WR Philly Brown (questionable, shoulder), DE Ryan Delaire (questionable, knee), OT Daryl Williams (questionable, ankle), DE Mario Addison (out, foot), S Kurt Coleman (out, concussion), LB Luke Kuechly (out indefinitely, concussion), C Ryan Kalil (IR, shoulder), C Gino Gradkowski (IR, knee)

    Seattle - RB Troymaine Pope (probable, ankle), DE Damonte Moore (probable, foot), S Earl Thomas (probable, hamstring), TE Jimmy Graham (probable, knee), DE Michael Bennett (probable, knee), C Justin Britt (probable, ankle), WR Paul Richardson (questionable, hamstring), LB Jordan Tripp (questionable, thigh), DB Deshawn Shead (questionable, hamstring), LB Brock Coyle (questionable, foot), TE Luke Wilson (doubtful, knee)

    ABOUT THE PANTHERS (4-7 SU, 3-7-1 ATS, 6-5 O/U):
    Carolina's last four games -- and six of the past seven -- have been decided by three points and it is 2-4 in those games, along with a one-point defeat at Denver in the season opener. Quarterback Cam Newton had a passer rating above 100 in half of his 16 games en route to winning league MVP honors last season, but he has reached triple digits once this year and has completed less than 60 percent of his passes in six of 10 games. Running back Jonathan Stewart finally broke out with 96 yards rushing and two touchdowns in last week's loss after averaging 2.7 yards per carry in his previous three games. Carolina ranks second against the run (79.5 yards) but 29th versus the pass (275.2).

    ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (7–3-1 SU, 6-5 ATS, 5-6 O/U):
    Seattle amassed 88 points during a three-game winning streak prior to last week's dud against the Buccaneers, in which quarterback Russell Wilson threw for a season-low 151 yards and was intercepted twice -- matching his season total from the first 10 games. Running back Thomas Rawls was limited to 38 yards on 12 carries in his second game back from a broken leg, although Wilson rushed for a season-high 80 yards. Star safety Earl Thomas was a full participant in practice Thursday after missing the first game of his career last week while defensive end Michael Bennett could return to the lineup for the first time since Week 7. The Seahawks are allowing a league-low 17 points per game.

    TRENDS:


    * Panthers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.
    * Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
    * Over is 7-1 in Panthers last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
    * Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Seattle.

    CONSENSUS:
    The road Panthers are getting 54 percent of the point spread action and the Over is getting 51 percent of the total action.


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    Comment


    • #17
      The Over is a white-hot wager when the snow blows into NFL betting

      Going back to 2004, NFL games with snow have finished with a 24-9-1 Over/Under record – topping the total 73 percent of the time.

      December isn’t wasting any time making its presence felt in Week 13 of the NFL season, with snow in the forecast for two games Sunday.

      Weather reports in Chicago are calling for three inches of the white stuff, just in time for the Bears’ home stand against the San Francisco 49ers (-2, 43). And in another NFC North venue, Lambeau Field will live up to its “frozen tundra” billing with similar weather expected for the Green Bay Packers’ game versus the Houston Texans (+6, 44.5).

      Snow is the most misunderstood element when it comes to its impact on the football game. While the knee-jerk reaction to less-than-ideal playing conditions it to bet the Under, history has shown that slippery field conditions favor the Over. And so they should, with the ball carrier having the advantage over the tackler, simply by knowing which way he’s going to go.

      Going back to 2004 (when we first started record game day weather), regular season games with snow have finished with a 24-9-1 Over/Under record – topping the total 73 percent of the time. Those games have featured an average total of 45.18 points versus a closing betting total of just 40.6, with the final score blowing away the number by more than 4.5 points.

      The Over in snow games has been even more profitable since 2009, with those wintery wonderlands producing a 14-3 Over/Under mark, for an 82 percent Over windfall. NFL teams posted an average of 53.59 total points against an average total of 42.6, soaring Over the total by nearly 11 points per game.

      As it pertains to the pointspread outcomes, you would think teams from cold climates would be more than used to playing in snow and inclement weather, therefor giving them an edge at the sportsbook. But it’s actually been the opposite, with road teams posting a 20-13-1 ATS record (17-17 SU) in snow games since 2004, winning by an average score of 23-22.18 against an average spread of +2.53 points.

      In fact, going back to the 2010 NFL season, home teams are a dismal 4-10 ATS in snow games, getting outscored by an average final of 30.78-24.57 while facing an average pointspread of -1.32.

      Sunday’s San Francisco-Chicago total opened at 42.5 and has moved to 43 points while the Houston-Green Bay number has dropped from 46.5 to 44.5. The Bears are 1-2 SU and ATS with a 2-1 O/U record at home in the snow, while the Packers are 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS and 3-1 O/U when winter weather comes to Lambeau.

      Comment


      • #18
        Light snow in Green Bay today and cold, light rain (maybe wet snow) in Chicago.
        Other than those 2 cities, conditions s/b dry w/light winds.

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