Announcement

**Udog** · 12-01-2016, 08:44 AM

NFL Week 13 opening line report: Early Cowboys action moving line

“We had the Cowboys power-rated as a 3 point favorite, but knowing what the bettors are going to do here, we added the hook and opened Cowboys -3.5."

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (+3.5)

For the second straight week, these teams will play on Thursday, this time against each other after both played on Thanksgiving.

Dallas, behind rookies Dak Prescott at quarterback and Ezekiel Elliott at running back, has been nothing short of completely impressive during a 10-game winning streak. On Thursday, the Cowboys (10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS) held off Washington 31-26 as a 5.5-point home favorite, the first time since Week 1 that they haven’t cashed.

Minnesota (6-5 SU and ATS) has pretty much squandered all of its 5-0 SU and ATS start. For the second time this month, the Vikings fell to Detroit, this time 16-13 as a 1.5-point road underdog on Thursday.

“The Cowboys finally didn’t cover, showing that the spread and the betting markets finally caught up with them,” Childs said. “That said, they closed a 6-point favorite last Thursday and won by 5, so they were pretty damn close to cashing tickets for their backers. No question, bettors are going to back them again, especially considering how poorly the Vikings played on Thanksgiving.

“The Vikings’ offense is virtually nonexistent. They’re ranked dead last rushing the ball in the NFL, and it’s not just bad, but historically bad. They face the best rushing team and one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL.

Sportsbook.ag had to keep all that and more in mind when setting the opening number.

“We had the Cowboys power-rated as a 3 point favorite, but knowing what the bettors are going to do here, we added the hook and opened Cowboys -3.5. So far, all the early action is on them, and we’ve already gone to -4.”

New York Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6)

As Dallas grabs all the headlines, New York – the only team to beat the Cowboys this year – has quietly run its record to 8-3 SU and 6-4-1 ATS. The Giants beat winless Cleveland 27-13 as a 6.5-point road fave Sunday.

Pittsburgh got itself back above .500 on Thanksgiving night, dumping Indianapolis 28-7 as an 8-point chalk to improve to 6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS. That kept the Steelers tied with Baltimore atop the AFC North.

“The Steelers come into this game plenty rested, and it’s a great spot for them,” Childs said. “That extra three days is big considering the Giants will be playing their second consecutive road game. Both teams have plenty of weapons on offense, but the Giants grade out better on the defensive side of the ball. That said, the Giants really haven’t beaten a quality team, in my opinion.

“We grade out the Steelers as the better team, playing with extra rest and playing at home against a team we have serious questions about. We opened the Steelers a solid 6-point favorite, and so far, money and bet count is dead equal on this game.”

Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons, no line

Atlanta has won three of its last four, which in the NFC South is considered blazing hot. The Falcons (7-4 SU and ATS) coasted past Arizona 38-19 laying 4 points at home Sunday.

Kansas City kept itself just a game behind AFC West-leading Oakland by pulling out a riveting overtime win in Denver on Sunday night. The Chiefs (8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS) got a final-seconds TD and 2-point conversion to tie the game, then won 30-27 on a field goal as time expired in OT, cashing as a 3.5-point road pup.

“We didn’t open this game yet, as the Chiefs were playing Sunday night,” Childs said. “But I see us opening this game roughly Falcons -3.5.”

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)

Just when Seattle seemed to be rounding into their Super Bowl form, Pete Carroll’s troops laid a complete egg Sunday. The Seahawks (7-3-1 SU, 6-5 ATS), 5-point favorites at Tampa Bay, only scored that many points in a 14-5 loss.

Meanwhile, defending NFC champion Carolina can just about mail it in on this season. The Panthers (4-7 SU, 3-7-1 ATS) made a stirring comeback from a 24-7 deficit at Oakland, ultimately taking a 32-24 lead, but they fell short 35-32 getting 3.5 points.

“This is a tough game, because we’re not sure of the Panthers’ mindset,” Childs said. “They’re off a devastating loss against the Raiders, a loss that essentially eliminates them from serious playoff contention. They travel to arguably the toughest place to play, in Seattle, and they take on a team off a very disappointing loss to the Bucs. It was an embarrassing offensive showing for the Seahawks, and we fully expect them to bring their ‘A’ game in this prime-time contest.

“We opened the Seahawks -6.5. Again, we know the type of effort we’ll see from Seattle. If they play their best game, they can beat anyone by over a touchdown at home, especially if that team comes in flat, which the Panthers could be. We’ll see what the betting market does with this game and go from there.”

**Udog** · 12-01-2016, 08:45 AM

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 13 NFL lines are going to move

The New York Giants have won six straight (5-1 ATS in that stretch) and now stand at 8-3.

Game to bet now

New York Giants at Pittsburgh (-5.5)

Here come the Giants. The New Yorkers have won six straight (5-1 ATS in that stretch) and now stand at 8-3. The Giants have a puncher’s chance at catching the Cowboys in the NFC East (they have Dallas at home on Dec. 11), and even if they fall short, they are in prime position for a wild-card spot. They aren’t overpowering anyone on either side of the ball, but they are just good enough on both offense and defense to get the job done. Whether the Giants can stay hot as the competition gets tougher is anyone’s guess, though. None of their final five opponents have a losing record, and the next three games (Steelers, Cowboys, Lions) are division leaders who will have lots on the line. Early money is spread equally on this game, suggesting no line movement.

Game to wait on

Dallas at Minnesota (+3.5) (Thursday)

Heavy money on the Cowboys forced books to move this one from Vikings +2.5 to +3.5, unusual in that it could enable early bettors to middle it and win on both ends if the Cowboys win by a field goal. What is clear is that the Vikings’ loss – their 5th in the last 6 games – last Thursday at Detroit exposed some serious offensive problems. With Adrian Peterson out, Minnesota doesn’t have much of a run game (RBs had only 58 yards vs. the Lions). Dallas has scored at least 24 points in every game since the opener (a 20-19 loss to the Giants; the Cowboys are only two points away from a perfect season). Minnesota is banged up quite a bit, so it might be worthwhile to wait until the injury report to see who will be a go in this one.

Total to watch

Los Angeles at New England (45)

There are lots of moving parts in this one, including Rob Gronkowski’s back injury, the New England weather in December, and chaos in the Rams’ defense. The number has been bet down from its 46 opening, possibly based on the questionable status of Gronkowski, but NE seems to find a way to score at home. The Patriots have played only two home games since Tom Brady’s return from suspension, and in those two they scorched the Bengals for 35 and put 24 on the board against the Seahawks. Toss in the fact that NE’s own defense has been worse than expected, and the over could fall rather easily in this one.

**Udog** · 12-01-2016, 08:45 AM

NFL Week 13 lines that make you go hmmm...

The Miami Dolphins are getting 3.5 points from books in Baltimore for Week 13, despite winning six straight games.

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5, 44)

The Thursday night game is a clash in styles. Dallas has been playing at an unbelievable level on offense but their defense has been the difference when talking bottom line in respect to their Over/Under results.

The Cowboys have now gone Under in five of their past eight games despite their offensive prowess and now they’re battling the Vikings, who have gone Under in seven of their last 10 games. Minnesota’s strength has been its defense as the offense has sputtered throughout the season.

This was a tough total to make but the signs for this one point to a slower paced game (set by Minnesota). The strategy here may be to hold off until game day to pounce on this one. As a standalone, marquee matchup, the masses always like to bet these favorite and Over. The current total of 44 represents the highest total set to a Viking game to date.

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-5, 53.5)

Five points is kind of a dead number in this business but takes on even less significance the higher the game total. We like the home favorite here as the Saints seemed to have recuperated after their season-opening three game losing streak.

A closer look at New Orleans’ losses show it has taken on a tough schedule so far. Oakland, the Giants, Atlanta, Kansas City, Denver and Carolina are nothing to sneeze at.

Detroit has been nothing less than terrific in recent games but where its weakness lies is on the road. Losers of three of their past four away from their friendly confines, the Lions may be stepping into someone else’s den this week.

I really thought the opening number put out by the offshores was way low and that’s been backed up by the early money so far. The line has nestled in at -5 and I think with the high-scoring nature of this game, that difference has less effect on the bottom line of the final score.

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 41)

Because there are -3’s around, Fins fans may want to take Miami and the hook as quickly as they can.

Though we had confidence in Baltimore this past week, we definitely did not like what we saw. The Ravens sputtered throughout the game offensively and were consistently jeered by the home crowd due to their ineptness against an injury-riddled Cincinnati team. A broad look at Baltimore’s season reflects an on-going issue with its offensive scheme which has translated into six of its games totaling less than 20 points.

Conversely, Miami is red-hot, winners of six in a row as its offense has clicked at a rate of 27 or more points in five of the past six games. I had this game around 1.5 to 2.5, so the addition of the hook, on top of the three, makes this even more inviting. What’s not to like with a team that could easily win this straight up?

Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders (-3, 50)

This is one of the late games which looks like a must-win for the Bills. After getting back a healthy RB LeSean McCoy, the Bills added WR Sammy Watkins to the mix and their offense seemed energized.

Oakland has been earning every victory this year and look like solid contenders heading to the home stretch.

What first hit me was the total. I pinned this at 54 for numerous reasons. First, the Bills’ secondary has been very suspect and can be exploited easily, particularly from the high-scoring offense of the Raiders.

Second, the Bills are always in jeopardy of the yellow flags being thrown their way. Oakland’s receiving corps should easily exploit the Bills secondary. Whether they get the big plays via completions, which will be many, or the penalties being racked up in the secondary, the Raiders will be moving the ball with relative ease.

When it comes to the Bills, having their star players back on the field should provide for a consistent serving of up-tempo offensive sets and plenty of possessions from both sides. Considering this game is being played on the West Coast and the forecast for Sunday looks like perfect football weather, this has all the ingredients for a fast-paced, high-scoring game.

**Udog** · 12-01-2016, 08:45 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Submitted for your perusal: Week 13 NFL trends…….

— Cowboys covered nine of their last ten games.

— Arizona covered three of its last twelve games.

— Jaguars are 5-12 vs spread in their last 17 games.

— 49ers are 5-11 in last 16 games as a road underdog.

— Eagles are 0-5 vs spread in their last five road games.

— Washington is 12-3 vs spread in its last 15 games.

**********

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Our bottom 3, top 10 in NFL

32) Browns— On their bye this week; get RGIII back from injury next week against the Bengals.

31) 49ers- Oregon job is open; Chip Kelly says he isn’t interested.

30) Jaguars— Supposedly playing Ravens in London next year. Baltimore is one of eight NFL teams that hasn’t played an international game.

10) Lions— Have trailed all 11 games in 4th quarter, meaning this 7-4 team could realistically be 0-11. Weird that they’ll play only three outdoor games in regular season.

9) Redskins— Play three of next four games on the road; their last road win was October 9.

8) Chiefs— Last four games were all decided by 5 or less points.

7) Falcons— Over is 9-2 in their games this year; fun team to watch.

6) Dolphins— Won last six games (5-1 vs spread); they’re +10 in turnovers in those games.

5) Giants— Won their last six games. Under is 6-2 in their last eight games.

4) Seahawks— 7-1 this season when they score 12+ points; they’ve been held to 3-5-6 points by three teams who probably won’t make the playoffs.

3) Raiders— David Carr dislocated pinky on his throwing hand LW; played 4th quarter with glove on his hand. Will he wear the glove this week?

2) Patriots— Won six of their last seven games- they’re a 13-point favorite this week.

1) Cowboys— Won ten games in row (9-1 vs spread); good ballgame Thursday in Minnesota.

**Udog** · 12-01-2016, 08:49 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 13

Thursday, December 1

Dallas @ Minnesota

Game 301-302
December 1, 2016 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
134.601
Minnesota
138.558
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 4
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 3 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(+3 1/2); Under

Sunday, December 4

Carolina @ Seattle

Game 375-376
December 4, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
131.896
Seattle
141.476
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 9 1/2
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 6 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-6 1/2); Under

NY Giants @ Pittsburgh

Game 373-374
December 4, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
137.157
Pittsburgh
133.718
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Giants
by 3 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 6
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(+6); Under

Washington @ Arizona

Game 371-372
December 4, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
134.329
Arizona
130.114
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 4
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 3
49
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+3); Over

Tampa Bay @ San Diego

Game 369-370
December 4, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
132.069
San Diego
140.505
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 8 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego
by 3 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(-3 1/2); Over

Buffalo @ Oakland

Game 367-368
December 4, 2016 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
132.942
Oakland
139.162
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 6
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
by 3
49
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(-3); Under

Miami @ Baltimore

Game 365-366
December 4, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
134.094
Baltimore
131.678
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 2 1/2
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 3 1/2
41
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+3 1/2); Under

Los Angeles @ New England

Game 363-364
December 4, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Los Angeles
130.961
New England
134.929
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 4
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 13 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Los Angeles
(+13 1/2); Under

San Francisco @ Chicago

Game 361-362
December 4, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
127.405
Chicago
131.779
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 4 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 1
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(-1); Under

Detroit @ New Orleans

Game 359-360
December 4, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
131.052
New Orleans
139.296
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 8
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 5 1/2
53 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-5 1/2); Over

Philadelphia @ Cincinnati

Game 357-358
December 4, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
134.547
Cincinnati
127.678
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 7
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
Pick
42
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
Over

Houston @ Green Bay

Game 355-356
December 4, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
122.970
Green Bay
137.764
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 15
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 6 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-6 1/2); Over

Kansas City @ Atlanta

Game 353-354
December 4, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
139.682
Atlanta
134.509
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 5
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 4
49
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(+4); Over

Denver @ Jacksonville

Game 351-352
December 4, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
134.039
Jacksonville
126.608
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 7 1/2
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 4
40 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-4); Under

Monday, December 5

Indianapolis @ NY Jets

Game 377-378
December 5, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
131.989
NY Jets
125.419
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 6 1/2
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 1 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(-1 1/2); Over

**Udog** · 12-01-2016, 09:27 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 13

Thursday, December 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS (10 - 1) at MINNESOTA (6 - 5) - 12/1/2016, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
DALLAS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
DALLAS is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
DALLAS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
DALLAS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, December 4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DENVER (7 - 4) at JACKSONVILLE (2 - 9) - 12/4/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS CITY (8 - 3) at ATLANTA (7 - 4) - 12/4/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (6 - 5) at GREEN BAY (5 - 6) - 12/4/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 103-76 ATS (+19.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 177-126 ATS (+38.4 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 62-37 ATS (+21.3 Units) in December games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 66-41 ATS (+20.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
HOUSTON is 43-25 ATS (+15.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (5 - 6) at CINCINNATI (3 - 7 - 1) - 12/4/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.
CINCINNATI is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
CINCINNATI is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DETROIT (7 - 4) at NEW ORLEANS (5 - 6) - 12/4/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 62-87 ATS (-33.7 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
DETROIT is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in road games off a win against a division rival since 1992.
DETROIT is 8-26 ATS (-20.6 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
DETROIT is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 2-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 10) at CHICAGO (2 - 9) - 12/4/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 37-21 ATS (+13.9 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
CHICAGO is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 1-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 1-1 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA RAMS (4 - 7) at NEW ENGLAND (9 - 2) - 12/4/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 175-219 ATS (-65.9 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 175-219 ATS (-65.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 80-112 ATS (-43.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 137-173 ATS (-53.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 64-92 ATS (-37.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 230-186 ATS (+25.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 230-186 ATS (+25.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 103-76 ATS (+19.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (7 - 4) at BALTIMORE (6 - 5) - 12/4/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BUFFALO (6 - 5) at OAKLAND (9 - 2) - 12/4/2016, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 45-77 ATS (-39.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
OAKLAND is 71-101 ATS (-40.1 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 71-101 ATS (-40.1 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 55-81 ATS (-34.1 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
OAKLAND is 71-101 ATS (-40.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
OAKLAND is 30-57 ATS (-32.7 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (6 - 5) at SAN DIEGO (5 - 6) - 12/4/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (6 - 4 - 1) at ARIZONA (4 - 6 - 1) - 12/4/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 41-22 ATS (+16.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY GIANTS (8 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (6 - 5) - 12/4/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 33-56 ATS (-28.6 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 99-69 ATS (+23.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 48-28 ATS (+17.2 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 40-19 ATS (+19.1 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CAROLINA (4 - 7) at SEATTLE (7 - 3 - 1) - 12/4/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 64-35 ATS (+25.5 Units) in December games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 76-53 ATS (+17.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 54-32 ATS (+18.8 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-1 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 2-2 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, December 5

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 6) at NY JETS (3 - 8) - 12/5/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 12-01-2016, 09:30 AM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 13

Thurs – Dec. 1

Dallas at Minnesota, 8:25 PM ET
Dallas: 8-1 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points
Minnesota: 0-2 ATS after scoring 14 points or less last game

Sun – Dec. 4

Denver at Jacksonville, 1:00 PM ET
Denver: 3-9 ATS off a division game
Jacksonville: 4-2 ATS off 2 consecutive road losses by 7 points or less

Kansas City at Atlanta, 1:00 PM ET
Kansas City: 9-1 ATS in road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games
Atlanta: 2-14 ATS in home games off a home win by 10 points or more

Houston at Green Bay, 1:00 PM ET
Houston: 1-3 ATS as a road underdog
Green Bay: 60-39 ATS off a road win

Philadelphia at Cincinnati, 1:00 PM ET
Philadelphia: 9-1 ATS in non-conference games
Cincinnati: 2-8 ATS in all lined games

Detroit at New Orleans, 1:00 PM ET
Detroit: 1-11 ATS in road games after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8
New Orleans: 5-1 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games

San Francisco at Chicago, 1:00 PM ET
San Francisco: 7-20 ATS after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games
Chicago: 7-0 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses

LA Rams at New England, 1:00 PM ET
Los Angeles: 6-0 UNDER off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more
New England: 11-1 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game

Miami at Baltimore, 1:00 PM ET
Miami: 2-10 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game
Baltimore: 30-16 ATS in home games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game

Buffalo at Oakland, 4:05 PM ET
Buffalo: 11-3 UNDER as a road underdog of 7 points or less
Oakland: 1-10 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5

Tampa Bay at San Diego, 4:25 PM ET
Tampa Bay: 18-6 ATS in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49
San Diego: 9-1 UNDER in home games after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games

Washington at Arizona, 4:25 PM ET
Washington: 6-0 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games
Arizona: 0-6 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game

NY Giants at Pittsburgh, 4:25 PM ET
New York: 33-56 ATS in weeks 10 through 13
Pittsburgh: 8-1 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game

Carolina at Seattle, 8:30 PM ET
Carolina: 54-34 ATS off a road loss
Seattle: 13-4 OVER in home games after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less point

Mon – Dec. 5

Indianapolis at NY Jets, 8:30 PM ET
Indianapolis: 36-60 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games
New York: 7-3 ATS off 2 or more consecutive unders

**Udog** · 12-01-2016, 09:33 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 13

Thursday's game
Cowboys (5-6) @ Vikings (6-5)— Minnesota coach Zimmer had emergency eye surgery Wednesday nite, his status for this game is unclear. Dallas won its last 10 games (9-1 vs spread); they’re 5-0 on road, 2-0 as road favorites- they scored 27+ points in last seven games, averaged 7.9+ yds/pass attempt in last four. Dallas has zero takeaways (-1) in last four games. Minnesota lost five of last six games after a 5-0 start; they’re 4-1 at home, with only loss inn OT to Detroit. Vikings are 2-2 as an underdog this year. Home side won last five Cowboy-Viking games; teams last met in 2013. Dallas lost last five visits here, with four of five losses by 10+ points- their last win here was 21 years ago. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 10-3 vs spread, 3-1 on road. NFC North underdogs are 6-7 vs spread, 1-1 at home. Under is 8-3 in Minnesota games, 3-1 in last four Cowboy road games.

Sunday's games
Broncos (7-4) @ Jaguars (2-9)— Denver is 3-4 in last seven games after 4-0 start; they’re 3-2 on road, 1-1 as road favorite. Broncos are +6 in turnovers in their wins, -3 in losses. Jax lost its last six games (2-4 vs spread); they’re 0-4 at home- they were favored in last two home games. Jacksonville is -13 in turnovers in its last seven games, with only two takeaways- they have only seven TA’s for whole season. Broncos are 20-39 on 3rd down the last two games, but they lost tough OT game to Chiefs last week, a pivotal game. Jaguars won three of last four games with Denver; teams last met in ’13. Broncos lost three of last four visits here, with last win in ’05. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 9-8 vs spread, 3-0 on road. AFC South underdogs are 7-11, 2-5 at home.

Chiefs (8-3) @ Falcons (7-4)— KC won six of its last seven games, is 4-2 on road this year, 2-2 as a road underdog. Chiefs’ last four games were all decided by 5 or less points- they converted 20 of last 36 3rd down plays. Atlanta is 3-2 at home this year, 1-3 as home favorite, with losses to Bucs/Chargers- only nine of their 67 plays vs Arizona LW came on third down, thats how well they moved ball. Chiefs are in Denver/Oakland sandwich; they host Raiders next Thursday. Falcons won 38-14/40-24 in last two series games; teams split last four meetings played here. AFC West non-divisional road underdogs are 8-3 vs spread this season; NFC South favorites are 6-9 vs spread, 4-7 at home. Under is 6-1 in last seven Chief games, 2-9 in Atlanta games this year.

Texans (6-5) @ Packers (5-6)— Houston is 3-0 in division games, 3-5 outside division; they’re 1-4 on road, 1-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 27-18-18-7 points, with win at Jacksonville. Texans are -10 in turnovers in their losses, +1 in wins. Short week for Pack after they snapped 4-game skid with Monday win in Philly; Green Bay is 3-2 at home, 1-3-1 as home favorite, with home wins by 7-7-16 points. Home side lost all three series games; Texans won 24-21 in only visit here, in ’08. AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 7-11 vs spread, 5-6 on road. NFC North favorites are 6-10 vs spread, 5-6 at home. Over is 5-3 in last eight Houston games, 4-1 in last five Green Bay games. December on frozen tundra can be dicey for a dome team from Texas- Osweiler is from Montana, but played in college at Arizona State.

Eagles (5-6) @ Bengals (3-7-1)— This is two sliding teams who desperately need a win. Philly lost six of last eight games after its 3-0 start; Eagles lost last five road games, are 1-3 as road underdog this year, losing away games by 1-7-6-5-11 points- this is short week for them after Monday loss to Packers. Bengals are 0-3 since their bye, losing by 1-4-5 points; they’re 2-2 at home, and were favored in all four. Since ’08, Cincy is 14-6-1 vs spread as a home underdog (4-0 since ’13). Cincy is 8-3-1 in this series, 2-0-1 in last three meetings; Eagles are 0-3-1 here, with a 13-all tie in last visit, 8 years ago. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 10-3 vs spread, 3-1 on road; AFC North underdogs are 2-10 vs spread, 0-4 at home. Bengals are 1-5-1 in last seven games, with only win against the Browns.

Lions (7-4) @ Saints (5-6)— Detroit has trailed all 11 games in 4th quarter; all 11 games were decided by 7 or less points. Lions are 2-3 on road, 3-1 as road underdogs, with wins at Indy/Minnesota. Detroit has only 7 offensive TD’s in last five games; they had 16 in first six games. Saints won three of last four home games, are 1-3 as home favorites this year; they outscored opponent in second half of last six games (38-3 in last two games). Lions beat New Orleans 24-23/35-27 in last two meetings; Detroit is 3-9 on Bourbon Street, but won here by 8 LY. NFC North non-divisional underdogs are 6-7 vs spread, 5-6 on road NFC South favorites are 6-9 vs spread, 4-7 at home. Under is 5-0 in last five Detroit games, 4-2 in Saints’ last six games.

49ers (1-10) @ Bears (2-9)— Niners lost last ten games (2-8 vs spread); they’re 0-5 on road, 2-3 as road underdog, losing away games by 19-19-29-3-7 points- they allowed 30+ points in six of last seven games. Chicago is 0-3 since its bye, losing by 26-6-6 points; they’re 2-3 at home, 0-2 as home favorite, beating Lions/Vikings. Barkley was 28-54/316 in his first NFL start, 27-21 loss to Titans LW. Bears are -6 in turnovers last three games; they have one takeaway in last four games. 49ers won three of last four series games, winning 26-20 in OT here LY, their first win in last five visits to Soldier Field. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 4-11 vs spread, 4-6 on road. NFC North favorites are 6-10 vs spread, 5-6 at home. Over is 5-2 in 49ers’ last seven games, 1-3-1 in Chicago home games.

Rams (4-7) @ Patriots (9-2)— LA got crushed in Superdome LW, has now lost six of last seven games- they appeared to quit late in game vs Saints. Rams are 3-3 in true road games, 4-1 as road underdog, with losses by 28-3-28 points in true road games. New England is 6-1 since Brady is back; they’re 2-2 as home favorite, winning home games by 7-27-18 points. Patriots won last four series games, winning last meeting 45-7 in London in ’12. Rams won three of last four visits here. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 4-11 vs spread, 4-6 on road. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 7-5 vs spread, 3-5 at home. Under is 4-1 in Rams’ last five games, 6-3 in last nine Patriot games. Cal native Goff playing in Foxboro in December could be dicey; check the weather forecast.

Dolphins (7-4) @ Ravens (6-5)— Miami won/covered its last six games; they’re 2-3 on road, winning last two away games, at Chargers/Rams- they’re 2-2 as road underdogs. Baltimore is 3-1 since its bye, allowing 12.8 pts/game in last four home games. Ravens are 4-2 at home, 3-2 as home favorite- they lost at home to Raiders/Redskins. Ravens won five of last six series games; Dolphins lost 30-23/26-10 in last two visits here, last of which was in ’10. AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 9-7 vs spread, 5-5 on road. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 7-9 vs spread, 4-5 at home. Under is 3-2 in Miami games, 5-0 in last five Baltimore games. Miami is tied with Denver for second Wild Card spot; Ravens are tied with Steelers atop NFC North.

Bills (6-5) @ Raiders (9-2)— Buffalo won the two games since its bye by 4-7 points; they’re 3-3 on road, 3-1 as road underdog, with losses on foreign soil by 6-3-6 points- they won in Foxboro when Brady was out. Bills have only two giveaways, two takeaways in last five games. Oakland won its last five games (4-1 vs spread); they’re 3-2 at home, 1-3 as home favorites- they play Chiefs on Thursday better not look past this game. Raiders won five of last seven series games; Bills lost last six visits to Oakland- their last win here was in 1966 (they beat Raiders in LA in ’91). AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 9-7 vs spread, 5-5 on road. AFC West favorites are 9-8 vs spread, 5-8 at home. Over is 9-2 in Oakland games, 8-3 in Buffalo games.

Buccaneers (6-5) @ Chargers (5-6)— Tampa Bay won/covered last three games, allowing 10.7 pts/game; they allowed only three offensive TD’s on last 31 drives. Bucs are 4-1 on road, with only loss in Week 2 at Arizona- they’re 3-1 as road underdogs. San Diego won four of last six games, is 3-2 at home, 2-2 as home favorite, losing to Saints/Dolphins. Chargers are 8-2 in last ten series games; they split last four. Average total in last three series games is 59.3. Buccaneers lost three of four visits here, with last win in ’96. Tampa Bay San Diego NFC South non-divisional underdogs are 11-2 vs spread, 8-1 on road; AFC West favorites are 9-8 vs spread, 5-8 at home. Under is 4-2 in Tampa Bay’s last six games, 8-3 in Charger games this season.

Redskins (6-4-1) @ Cardinals (4-6-1)— Washington is 6-2-1 in its last nine games; they’re 2-2 in true road games, 3-1 vs spread as road underdogs, with losses by 3 at Detroit, 5 at Dallas. Redskins are 47-91 on 3rd down in their last six games. Arizona lost three of last four games, is 3-2-1 at home, with losses to Pats/Rams- they’re 2-4 as home favorites, have turned ball over nine times in last four games (-5). Redskins won eight of last nine series games; they lost 30-20 in last meeting couple years ago. Washington is 4-8 in its last dozen trips to the desert. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 8-4 vs spread, 4-3 on road. NFC West favorites are 5-7 vs spread, 3-4 at home. Over is 9-2 in Washington games, 0-6 in Arizona home games. Arizona was outscored 41-16 in second half of its last three games.

Giants (8-3) @ Steelers (6-5)— New York won its last six games (5-1 vs spread) but last week in Cleveland was only true road game in that span- they beat Rams in London. Giants are 2-2 in true road games, losing by 14 in Minnesota, 7 in Green Bay; they also won in Dallas. Pittsburgh won last two games, allowing total of 16 points; Steelers lost last two home games, to Pats/Cowboys- they’re 3-1 as home favorites this year. Home side lost last three Giant-Steeler games; Pitt is 3-2 in last five series games. This is only 2nd time Giants have been in Steel City since 1991. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 8-4 vs spread, 4-3 on road. AFC North favorites are 7-9 vs spread, 3-4 at home. Under is 6-2 in last eight Giant games, 8-2 in last ten Steeler games.

Panthers (4-7) @ Seahawks (7-3-1)— Last four Carolina games were all decided by exactly three points; Panthers are 1-4 on road- they were favored in four of the five games- they’re 1-0 as an underdog this year. Carolina is 2-5 this season in games decided by three or less points. Seahawks are 6-2-1 in last nine games, 5-0 at home, 2-3 vs spread as a home favorite, with home wins by 2-19-2-6-11 points. Carolina-Seattle met in playoffs last two years; Panthers won 27-23/31-24 in two meetings with Seahawks LY. Carolina lost four of last five visits here. NFC South non-divisional underdogs are 11-2 vs spread, 8-1 on road; NFC West favorites are 5-7 vs spread, 3-4 at home. Under is 3-1 in last four Carolina games, 4-2 in last six Seattle games. Seahawks new 1-3-1 this season when scoring less than 26 points.

Monday's game
Colts (5-6) @ Jets (3-8)— Indy is 5-2 this season when scoring 24+ points, 0-4 when they do not; Colts are 2-2 in true road games, 2-1-1 as road underdogs, with losses by 14 at Denver, 3 in Houston. Jets lost last three games by 4-3-5 points; they’re 1-4 at home, 2-1 as home underdogs, with home losses by 1-10-3-5 points- they beat Baltimore 24-16 for only home win. Colts lost by 1-26-13 points in last three games with Jets, scoring only 10.7 pts/game; teams split last eight visits here. Three of last eight series meetings came in playoffs. AFC South non-divisional road teams are 7-8 vs spread, 2-1 as favorites. AFC East home teams are 7-7 vs spread, 4-2 as underdogs. Under is 3-1 in last four Indy games, 6-1 in Jets’ last seven games.

**Udog** · 12-01-2016, 09:44 AM

NFL

Week 13

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, December 1

8:25 PM
DALLAS vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas's last 8 games when playing Minnesota
Dallas is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games

Sunday, December 4

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. BALTIMORE
Miami is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games
Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Miami

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games
Detroit is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Detroit
New Orleans is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Detroit

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. GREEN BAY
Houston is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games on the road
Green Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games at home

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
Cincinnati is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. CHICAGO
San Francisco is 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 games
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games at home
Chicago is 3-13 SU in its last 16 games at home

1:00 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. NEW ENGLAND
Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
Los Angeles is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New England's last 9 games

1:00 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games on the road
Kansas City is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games
Atlanta is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games at home

1:00 PM
DENVER vs. JACKSONVILLE
Denver is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games
Denver is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Denver
Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

4:05 PM
BUFFALO vs. OAKLAND
Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Buffalo is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing at home against Buffalo

4:25 PM
NY GIANTS vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 5 games on the road
NY Giants are 2-2-2 ATS in their last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

4:25 PM
WASHINGTON vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Washington's last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing Washington
Arizona is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games ,

4:25 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. SAN DIEGO
Tampa Bay is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games
San Diego is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay

8:30 PM
CAROLINA vs. SEATTLE
Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
Seattle is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Monday, December 5

8:30 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. NY JETS
Indianapolis is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
Indianapolis is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing NY Jets
NY Jets are 7-13-1 ATS in their last 21 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
NY Jets are 2-7 SU in their last 9 games

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 12-01-2016, 09:48 AM

NFL

Thursday, December 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football betting preview: Cowboys at Vikings
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Cowboys are trying to navigate through their most rugged stretch of the season, with Thursday's matchup marking their third game in 12 days.

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (+3, 44)

The Dallas Cowboys have not lost since the season opener but cannot afford to take their foot off the pedal as they prepare to visit the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday night. Riding a 10-game winning streak and leading the New York Giants by two games in the NFC East, Dallas has a chance to clinch a playoff spot with a win over Minnesota and some help.

The Cowboys are trying to navigate through their most rugged stretch of the season, with Thursday's matchup marking their third game in 12 days. “They throw these schedules at you and it’s part of the game,” Dallas cornerback Brandon Carr told reporters. "You get through this one, get through the storm ... you can look back and tell stories about it. It’s something that makes us bond and become closer.” Minnesota, which also will be playing for the third time in 12 days, has been in a spiral since sprinting out to a 5-0 start. The Vikings have dropped five of their last six, including a 16-13 loss at Detroit on Thanksgiving Day to fall one game behind the Lions in the NFC Central.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NBC, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The Dallas Cowboys opened as 2.5-point road favorites and by Monday morning the point spread was all of the way up to the current number of 3.5. The total has wobbled between 43.5 and, the current number, 44 all week. Check out the complete history here.

WEATHER REPORT: Dome.

INJURY REPORT:

Cowboys - DE D. Lawrence (Probable, back), T T. Smith (Probable, back), LB S. Lee (Probable, illness), S B. Church (probable, forearm), DL D. Irving (Probable, illness), DE J. Crawford (Questionable, foot), DT T. McClain (Questionable, thigh), LB J. Durant (Out, hamstring), S J. Wilcox (Out, leg), OL C. Green (Out Indefinitely, foot), CB M. Claiborne (Out Indefinitely, hernia), DE R. Gregory (Elig Week 15, suspension), LB R. McClain (I-R, suspension), RB D. McFadden (Questionable, elbow), OL L. Collins (Questionable, toe), TE J. Hanna (I-R, knee), TE G. Swaim (I-R, pectoral), DE C. Tapper (I-R, back), LB J. Smith (I-R, knee), QB K. Moore (I-R, ankle).

Vikings - WR S. Diggs (Probable, knee), TE K. Rudolph (Probable, shoulder), S H. Smith (Probable, ankle), LB E. Kendricks (Probable, hip), CB T. Newman (Probable, neck), G J. Sirles (Probable, hip), QB S. Bradford (Probable, ankle), WR A. Thielen (Probable, shoulder), QB T. Heinicke (Questionable, foot), CB C. Munnerlyn (Questionable, ankle), DE E. Griffen (Questionable, shoulder), CB M. Alexander (Doubtful, groin), DT S. Floyd (Out, knee), CB M. Sherels (Out, ribs), G J. Berger (Out Indefinitely, concussion), G M. Harris (Questionable, illness), RB A. Peterson (Mid Dec, knee), T J. Long (I-R, achilles), T A. Smith (I-R, tricep), T M. Kalil (I-R, hip), QB T. Bridgewater (I-R, knee), DT S. Crichton (I-R, undisclosed), CB J. Price (I-R, knee), S A. Exum Jr. (I-R, leg).

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS, 5-6 O/U): Dallas owner Jerry Jones is adopting the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" philosophy and sees no reason to deviate from the formula of riding the legs of rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott, the league's leading rusher with 1,199 yards. "The more we give Ezekiel the ball, then I think the better," Jones said of Elliott, who also has rushed for 11 touchdowns. "We're winning with that. We're wearing them down on defense." Elliott has thrust himself into the MVP conversation, and one of his competitors may be fellow rookie Dak Prescott, who has 18 TD passes against only two interceptions and has posted a passer rating of at least 100 in nine of the last 10 games. Dallas ranks 31st in pass defense (280.4 yards) and has made only four interceptions.

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS, 4-7 O/U): Minnesota cornerback Xavier Rhodes has as many interceptions as the Cowboys and is part of a defense that ranks second in the league with 17.5 points allowed and paces the NFC with a plus-12 turnover differential. With a stagnant running game and an offense that has been limited to 16 points of fewer four times in the last six games, quarterback Sam Bradford is pushing for the coaches to open the playbook and take shots downfield. Bradford (ankle) has been limited in practice this week but hopes to have the services of leading wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who had 40 receptions over a four-game stretch prior to sitting out last week's loss against the Lions with a knee injury. "I think we've got to find a way to create more explosive plays," Bradford acknowledged.

TRENDS:

* Cowboys are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
* Vikings are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Under is 8-2 in Cowboys last 10 road games.
* Under is 14-2 in Vikings last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Cowboys are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The road favorite Dallas Cowboys are picking up 70 percent of the point spread action and the Over is getting 59 percent of the Over/Under wagers.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 12-01-2016, 09:53 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 13

New Orleans has consistently produced when it gets deep into opposition territory, coming into Week 13 ranked third overall in touchdown success rate in the red zone (70.21 percent).

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 40.5)

Dolphins' weak O-line vs. Ravens' formidable front line

The Dolphins are making waves in the AFC playoff race, reeling off six consecutive victories after opening the season 1-4. The defense has been garnering the majority of the headlines, but the offense has been equally as impressive, reaching the 30-point plateau three times during the run. But look for things to get a lot more difficult in Week 13, as Miami visits Baltimore to face a Ravens team that boasts one of the most impressive defensive lines in football.

The 2016 Baltimore defense may not harken back to the dominant Ray Lewis-led units that propelled the Ravens to a pair of Super Bowls, but it has been impressive nonetheless. All four starting defensive lineman have Pro Football Focus grades of 73 or better, led by Terrell Suggs (81.5). The Ravens have allowed the fewest rushing yards in the NFL entering Week 13 (824), and have surrendered just four touchdowns on the ground to date.

Miami appears to be in good position to challenge the Baltimore defensive line given the Dolphins' recent scoring barrage, but a closer look at the numbers reveals some major red flags. Four of the five members of Miami's base offensive line formation have PFF grades below 58, highlighted by RG Jermon Bushrod (40.1), who will likely match up against Baltimore LE Timmy Jernigan (77.1). The Miami offense could be in for a long afternoon this weekend.

Daily fantasy fade: RB Jay Ajayi

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-6, 53.5)

Lions' defensive generosity vs. Saints' red-zone success

By most measures, the Saints have one of the top offenses in the game; this is particularly true at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, where New Orleans is averaging a staggering 34 points per contest. You don't light up the scoreboard that often without being proficient in the red zone - and the Saints certainly fit the bill. That bodes poorly for the Detroit Lions, who travel to the Big Easy this weekend hoping they can find a way to shut down the Saints inside their own 20.

New Orleans has consistently produced when it gets deep into opposition territory, coming into Week 13 ranked third overall in touchdown success rate in the red zone (70.21 percent). Only the Tennessee Titans (72.50) and the Carolina Panthers (70.59) have been more proficient. The Saints are over 70 percent both at home and on the road, and have improved dramatically over last season, when they were ninth in the NFL with a 60.34-percent red zone success rate.

The Lions are in no position to stem New Orleans' red-zone success. They come into this one ranked 26th in opponent red zone touchdown rate (64.10 percent), with a similar rate at home and on the road. With Drew Brees playing as well as he has all season, and the Saints armed with one of the best home-field advantages in the league, the Lions could struggle mightily to keep New Orleans out of the end zone once it marches down the field.

Daily fantasy watch: QB Drew Brees

Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders (-3, 49)

Raiders OLB Khalil Mack vs. Bills RT Jordan Mills

The Buffalo Bills haven't won in Oakland in 50 years. A lot of things have happened since then, most recently the Raiders surging to the top of the AFC West standings with a 9-2 record. Oakland has a lot of players to thank for its stunning resurgence, but one in particular has made a significant impact on the defensive side of the ball. And he's facing a whale of a mismatch this weekend, one that could have singlehandedly decide the outcome of the game

Raiders OLB Khalil Mack has been nothing short of spectacular over the past three seasons, boasting Pro Football Focus grades of 94.6, 95.9 and 92.6, respectively. He's the top-graded player at his position, and with good reason: He has nine sacks and an interception through 11 games, along with the only touchdown of his career. And if that weren't enough, he has also forced three fumbles so far this season, recovering a pair.

This week's victim: Bills RT Jordan Mills, whose PFF rating of 46.1 ranks him 65th among his peers. It's by far one of the biggest mismatches at any position in any game in Week 13 - and if Mack performs as expected, Buffalo QB Tyrod Taylor could find himself scrambling for his life. In a game where the visiting Bills are expected to keep things close, Mack could mean the difference between the Raiders going 10-2 or 9-3.

Daily fantasy watch: Raiders D/ST

Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (+2, 49)

Jets' punting problems vs. Colts' elite kicking game

Vegas is expecting the Monday nighter between the Jets and Colts to be a close one, with the Jets boasting a solid run defense, the Colts featuring a high-octane pass attack and neither team all that proficient at preventing points through the air. Much of the focus in this one will be on whether Andrew Luck can thrive after missing last week due to injury - but if field position winds up playing a role, the biggest factor could be the significant advantage Indianapolis has in the kicking department.

The Jets and Arizona Cardinals boasted the worst average yards per punt a season ago (36.2), and New York hasn't shown much of an improvement in 2016. It enters Week 13 ranked 29th in yards per punt (38.1), ahead of only the Jacksonville Jaguars (37.8), Washington Redskins (37.4) and Cardinals (36.4). Seventh-round pick Lachlan Edwards has pinned foes inside their own 20-yard line just 16 times in 52 punts this season, a rate that ranks among the league's worst.

Indianapolis punter Pat McAfee has been considerably better. The 29-year-old social media dynamo is averaging an absurd 50.1 yards per attempt, easily the best mark in the NFL. He's a major reason the Colts rank third league-wide in net yards per punt attempt at 43.1, nearly 1 1/2 yards better than the mark they posted in 2015. All those extra yards could have a major impact on what is anticipated to be one of the closest contests of the week.

Daily fantasy watch: QB Andrew Luck

**Udog** · 12-04-2016, 10:49 AM

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six most popular picks for Week 13 in the Westgate Super Contest

— Detroit Lions +6 (564)

— Atlanta Falcons -4 (516)

— New Jersey Giants +6.5 (515)

— Green Bay Packers -6.5 (447)

— Seattle Seahawks -6.5 (417)

— Washington Redskins +2.5 (408)

**Udog** · 12-04-2016, 11:31 AM

Essential Week 13 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

The Giants have won 6 in a row, going 5-1 ATS in the process. Big Blue is currently a 6-point road dog in Pittsburgh in Week 13.

Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons (-5.5, 49)

* Kansas City has survived despite a mediocre offense that has topped 300 total yards just once in the last four games. The Chiefs have missed star receiver Jeremy Maclin, who has been sidelined for three straight games with a groin injury, but his absence has helped open up more playing time for rookie speedster Tyreek Hill, who last week became the first player since Gale Sayers in 1965 to record rushing, receiving and return touchdowns in the same game. Kansas City’s saving grace has been a defense that leads the league in takeaways (24) and features dynamic pass rushers Justin Houston and Dee Ford.

* Atlanta’s offense is one of the best in the league and features a prolific duo in quarterback Matt Ryan and receiver Julio Jones, who leads the league in receiving yards (1,140) and recorded 108 and two touchdowns in Atlanta’s 40-24 win at Kansas City in 2012. The backfield combination of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman gives the Falcons decent balance and will need to be effective to keep the Chiefs’ defense honest. The Falcons’ most glaring weakness is their pass defense, which ranks last in the league but has held three of its last four opponents under 300 passing yards.

LINE HISTORY: The Falcons opened the week as 3.5-home favorites and that number has been steadily going up, as of Friday afternoon the line has grown to 5.5. The total opened at 49 and has remained there all week. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Chiefs are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
* Falcons are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 games overall.
* Under is 7-1 in Falcons last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 40.5)

* Tannehill likely will be without one of his weapons on Sunday in Parker, who missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a back injury. "Right now, this moment, we got to make sure we have a plan in place if he doesn't make it," offensive coordinator Clyde Christensen said of 23-year-old Parker, who has 16 receptions for 246 yards in his last three games. "If he does make it, it's going to be at the last hour. That would be awesome. We're hoping so, but right now we're preparing for the worst." Jarvis Landry leads Miami in receptions (64) and receiving yards (733) while fellow wideout Kenny Stills has three of his team-best five touchdowns in his last five games.

* Baltimore's second-ranked defense (297.8 yards per game) is led by linebacker Terrell Suggs, who recorded two sacks and two forced fumbles last week and three of each in the last three contests. Suggs hasn't been shy against the Dolphins, collecting at least one sack in each of his seven career encounters. Top cornerback Jimmy Smith is in line to return after a two-game absence due to a back injury and will likely shadow Landry.

LINE HISTORY: The Ravens opened the week as 3.5-point home favorites and that line has dropped to 3. The total opened at 41.5 and has faded one full point to 40.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC.
* Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Ravens last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Dolphins are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears (PK, 43.5)

* Kaepernick tried to take the game into his own hands last week and nearly succeeded but the quarterback, who has surged into the national limelight for anything but football recently, was stopped just shy of the goal line on the game's final play in the 31-24 loss. Still, it was his best day as a quarterback since 2014 when he was entrenched as a dual threat viewed as one off the game's top playmakers. The Niners' lone win of the season was a 28-0 whitewashing of the Rams on opening day and they rank 29th in the NFL in scoring (20.7 points) and 30th in passing (198 yards a game)

* Sunday will be a chance for Barkley to see if he can build on his solid second half of last week despite the Bears' vast shortcomings in the receiving game. Chicago, which is still without top receiver Alshon Jeffery (suspension) for two more weeks and placed tight end Zach Miller (foot) on injured reserve a week ago, could also be missing Eddie Royal due to a toe injury. Regardless, look for Jordan Howard to carry the ball a lot as the Niners have allowed an NFL-worst 171.8 rushing yards per game and Howard ranks second to Ezekiel Elliott in rushing for rookies with 766 yards and two touchdowns.

LINE HISTORY: The Bears opened as 2.5-home favorites and the public has driven that line down to a PK. The total opened at 42.5 and that has been bet up to 43.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* 49ers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
* Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
* Over is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5, 42)

* Wide receiver Jordan Matthews was limited in Thursday's practice as he attempts to work his way back from a right ankle injury that hampered him against the Packers. Matthews' availability is key for Wentz, as the former leads the team in receptions (57), targets (90), receiving yards (686) and receiving touchdowns (three). Tight end Zach Ertz has stepped up in the passing game, reeling in 23 receptions in the last four weeks. Running back Ryan Mathews (team-leading 427 yards, seven TDs) did not practice on Thursday due to a knee injury and is in jeopardy of missing his second straight game.

* Cincinnati has won only one of its last seven games to put its streak of five consecutive playoff appearances on life support, and losing the electric Gio Bernard and Green hasn't helped matters. Running back Jeremy Hill has been limited to just 83 yards in the last two contests, but added an unexpected boost in the passing game on Sunday with six catches for 61 yards in a 19-14 loss to Baltimore. Veteran wideout Brandon LaFell has struggled to pick up the slack in the absence of Green, who was spotted working on the team's rehab field during Thursday's practice.

LINE HISTORY: The Bengals opened this game as 1-point home dogs, but were bet all the way to Bengals -2. The total opened at 42 and hasn’t moved all week. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Eagles are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Bengals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
* Over is 9-1 in Eagles last 10 road games.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
* Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers (-6.5, 44.5)

* Osweiler is under heavy criticism after throwing three interceptions in the loss to the Chargers, and his average of 5.77 yards per attempt is the worst among qualifying quarterbacks in the NFL. "Our job as an offensive unit is to score touchdowns and put together multiple drives that result in touchdowns every single week," Osweiler told reporters. "And we've struggled with that this year. And I can't quite put my thumb on that, but I will certainly always stand up and point the finger at myself." Coach Bill O'Brien dismissed the idea of replacing Osweiler, who signed a $72 million free-agent deal in the offseason, with backup Tom Savage.

* Green Bay came out of its victory on Monday night banged up at key positions, with Rodgers battling a hamstring strain and linebacker Clay Matthews suffering a separated shoulder. Coach Mike McCarthy gave the team the day off from practice on Wednesday to let everyone rest and does not see the team making big adjustments offensively to accommodate for Rodgers' decreased mobility. "We'll see how he is, movement-wise," McCarthy told reporters. "But with that, you've got to make sure he's got more answers for later in the time clock of the play then he did when he can't move out of the pocket."

LINE HISTORY: The Packers opened as 6-point home favorites and were pumped up to 7, but has since settled at 6.5. The total opened at 45.5 and has been bet down to 44.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Texans are 5-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
* Over is 4-0 in Texans last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 games overall.

Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars (3.5, 40)

* After picking up Super Bowl MVP honors in February, Von Miller could add another prestigious title should he continue on his impressive path: NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Miller recorded a career high-tying three of his league-best 12.5 sacks versus the Chiefs and is inching closer to his personal best of 18.5 (2012). Rookie running back Devontae Booker has proven to be a workhorse over the last two weeks, recording 24 carries in each contest while totaling 155 yards. He'll look to exploit a Jaguars' defense that is being gouged for 116 yards on the ground.

* Defensive tackle Malik Jackson made no bones about looking forward to his Rocky Mountain reunion. "This is the game," said Jackson, who signed with Jacksonville in March after spending four seasons in Denver. "When I first signed here, I realized we were playing Denver this year and I just looked forward to it, the old team, to show those guys who I am on another team." Jackson recorded two sacks last week versus the Bills and his 4.5 on the season are just 1.5 shy of the career he he set in 2013.

LINE HISTORY: The Broncos opened up as 4.5-point road favorites and was quickly bet up to 5, before fading late in the week to 3.5. The total opened a 42 and has been bet down to 40.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Broncos are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 13.
* Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games following a ATS loss.
* Over is 5-1 in Jaguars last 6 vs. AFC.
* Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
* Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots (-13, 44)

* Los Angeles went four straight games scoring 10 points or fewer prior to last week's 49-21 loss in New Orleans, a game in which it did all its scoring in the first half behind three scoring passes from Goff. The No. 1 overall pick in this year's draft has 348 yards in his first two games and is not getting much help from running back Todd Gurley, who is averaging 3.1 yards per carry and has rushed for only two touchdowns in his last eight games. Kenny Britt has been the top receiving target by a wide margin with 54 receptions for 788 yards and four scores. The Rams' defense features a standout defensive tackle in Aaron Donald and ranked seventh against the pass at 227.5 yards per game.

* Brady battled an ailing knee to beat the New York Jets last week on a late touchdown pass, but he told a radio station on Thursday night that "I'll be feeling a lot better than I was feeling last week." The loss of Gronkowski is impossible to replace -- he had three 100-yard games and 21 catches for touchdowns in Brady's first four games after the quarterback returned from a four-game suspension. The Patriots have a nice backup play in tight end Martellus Bennett, who has three 100-yard games, while rookie Malcolm Mitchell and the return of running back Dion Lewis have added a spark to the passing game. New England ranks third with an average of 17.9 points permitted.

LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened the week as 13-point favorites and were briefly up to 13.5 mid-week before returning to 13. The total opened at 45.5 and has dropped down to 44. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Rams are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 7-0 in Rams last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games following a ATS loss.
* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-6, 53.5)

* Detroit has survived a lackluster ground game thanks to the maturation of Matthew Stafford, who has completed 66.8 percent of his passes for 19 touchdowns and just five interceptions. Stafford has thrown scoring passes to seven different targets - including leading receiver Golden Tate, who caught two in last year’s win over the Saints. Detroit’s defense has stepped up its effort of late, allowed fewer than 300 total yards on average over the last four games and holding three straight opponents under 90 yards rushing.

* New Orleans again possesses one of the league’s most prolific offenses but hasn’t been able to consistently make stops on defense. Veteran Drew Brees leads the league in passing yards (3,587) and touchdown passes (30) and has led three game-winning drives in the fourth quarter, while Mark Ingram and Tim Hightower give the Saints a viable running game. The defense has turned it up the last two games, holding Carolina and Los Angeles under 250 total yards after failing to keep an opponent under 325 in the first nine contests.

LINE HISTORY: The Saints opened the week as 4-point home favorites and that number has grown two full points over the week to 6. The total opened the week at 53.5 and has remained there all week. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Saints are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
* Under is 5-0 in Lions last 5 games overall.
* Under is 5-0 in Saints last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders (-3, 48.5)

* Buffalo hopes to have Marcell Dareus on the field Sunday after the defensive tackle sat out the latter stages of last week's victory over Jacksonville with an abdominal strain and has been limited at practice. "I think he's going to be OK," coach Rex Ryan told the team's website. "I'm no doctor, so I can't tell you the issue that he had, but he feels confident that he's going to be ready to roll, and I feel the same way." The Bills will be without Seantrel Henderson, however, as the offensive tackle received a 10-game suspension from the NFL for violating the league's Policy and Program for Substances of Abuse. Buffalo placed wide receiver Walt Powell and defensive tackle Corbin Bryant (shoulder) on injured reserve, signing Dez Lewis and DeAndre Coleman from the practice squad to respectively replace them, and also inked tight end Logan Thomas from Detroit's practice squad to fill Henderson's roster spot.

* Carr has put himself in the conversation for the MVP award this season thanks in part to the five fourth-quarter comebacks he has orchestrated. He has led nine game-winning drives in the final period or overtime since 2015, which puts him one behind Detroit's Matthew Stafford for the most in the league in that span. Oakland may have another player in the running for MVP in Khalil Mack, who was named both the AFC Defensive Player of the Month for November and the conference's Defensive Player of the Week - for the second time this season - after becoming the first player to record a sack, interception-return touchdown, forced fumble and fumble recovery in the same game since Charles Woodson accomplished the feat in 2009.

LINE HISTORY: The Raiders open this game as 3.5-home favorites, that was bet down to 3 early in the week and that number has held firm. The total opened at 49.5 and has been dropped to 48. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Raiders are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 6-1 in Bills last 7 games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Raiders last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5, 48.5)

* Kirk Cousins is playing out the season under the franchise tag and continues to give the team reasons to sign him to a long-term extension. Cousins threw for 449 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions in the 31-26 loss at Dallas - the second time in the last four games he went over 440 yards and his third contest in a row without an interception. "Much like any other job, as you perform it longer in the same role, you're going to get comfortable and say, 'OK, I've been here, I've done this, I can do this,'" Cousins explained to reporters.

* Arizona surrendered a total of 68 points in losses at Minnesota and Atlanta in its last two games, and Arians hinted at selfishness as the cause. "I thought, defensively, we had some guys get out of their lane again and try to do too much," he told reporters, "tried to get on the stat sheet instead of just doing their job." Safety Tyrann Mathieu played against the Falcons last week but described himself as "limited" due to a shoulder injury while cornerback Marcus Cooper recorded a career-high nine tackles.

LINE HISTORY: The Cardinals opened this NFC showdown as 2.5 home favorites and the public seems happy with it, as the line hasn’t moved yet. The total opened at 49.5 and has dropped a point and half to 48. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Redskins are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Cardinals are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Over is 10-1 in Redskins last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 games following a ATS loss.

New York Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6, 48.5)

* New York's defense was among the worst in the league while going 6-10 last season, but one of the biggest reasons for the turnaround is safety Landon Collins, who was named the NFC Defensive Player of the Month on Thursday. Collins had three of his five interceptions in four games in November to earn the Giants' first monthly honor since Jason Pierre-Paul in 2011. Pierre-Paul is re-emerging as a force with 5.5 sacks over the past two weeks for New York, which has recorded 21 sacks during the winning streak. Beckham has multiple touchdowns receptions in three of the past six games while Manning has 15 scoring passes and six interceptions in that span.

* Pittsburgh stopped a four-game skid with back-to-back road wins at Cleveland and Indianapolis, but each victory came against an opponent with an untested quarterback. Brown, who is two yards shy of his fourth consecutive 1,000-yard season, leads the NFL with 82 receptions and caught three touchdown passes last week to match his total from his previous six games combined. Running back Le'Veon Bell has scored in each of the last three games and has rushed for 266 yards in the past two while Roethlisberger is coming off his sixth game with at least three touchdown passes. Pittsburgh's defense allows 263.5 yards per game and will be tested by New York's passing attack.

LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened the week at 5.5-home favorites and have been bet up to 6. The total opened at an even 50 and has been slowly moving down all week, settling at 48.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Giants are 0-6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Steelers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
* Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games following a straight up win.
* Under is 6-0 in Steelers last 6 games following a ATS win.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Diego Chargers (-3.5, 47.5)

* Tampa Bay's defense likely is salivating at the prospect of facing San Diego, as it has recorded 18 takeaways in its last seven games while the Chargers enter Week 13 leading the league with 23 turnovers. The team ranks 24th in total defense (369.3 yards per game) but is tied for 13th in scoring defense (264 points) as it has clamped down during its winning streak, allowing a total of 32 points in the three games after yielding 73 over the previous two contests. Jameis Winston has been on fire of late, throwing for 1,573 yards and 13 touchdowns in his last six games with only three interceptions, while Mike Evans is tied for the league lead with 10 TD receptions and has hauled in five scoring passes in his last five road contests.

* Despite its turnover total, San Diego will provide a challenge to Tampa Bay's defense as it possesses the fifth-best passing offense (271.5 yards) and fourth-ranked scoring offense (313 points) in the league. Philip Rivers is fourth in the NFL with 3,128 passing yards and tied for fifth with 23 touchdown passes but also is one interception off the league lead of 13. The veteran has eclipsed the 3,000-yard plateau for the 11th consecutive season, which has him tied for the fourth-longest such streak in NFL history.

LINE HISTORY: The Chargers opened as 3.5-home favorites and were briefly bet up to 4, before fading back to the opening number. The total started the week at 46.5 and has risen a full point to 47.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
* Chargers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.
* Over is 4-1 in Buccaneers last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
* Over is 4-1 in Chargers last 5 games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

**Udog** · 12-04-2016, 11:33 AM

NFL Underdogs: Week 13 pointspread picks and predictions

Andrew Caley would like an early Christmas present and have his pup picks go a perfect 3-0 ATS after going 2-1 ATS last week.

Thanksgiving has come and gone and the calendar has rolled over to December.

That means it’s time to start dragging out the boxes with lights, pull out the ugly Christmas sweaters, and start buying gifts for loved ones.

Few things are more stressful than trying to find the perfect gift for that special someone, or your parents, or even your friends. Hours are spent searching up and down malls or scrolling through page after page online, until you're exhausted and need to sit down in front of the couch with a beer, without checking anyone off your list.

But every now and then you come across something and exclaim, “Ah Ha!” and the exact gift you were looking for just smacks you in the face.

That’s what happened, while scouring the NFL schedule for live underdogs this week. On the surface, Week 13 didn’t seem to offer much value at first and then BOOM!

There are three road teams this week who will face a team with a worse record and get at least 5.5 points from oddsmakers. All three are firmly holding playoff spots, including a division leader and combine for a 23-10 SU record with a collective 18-15 mark against the spread.

So let’s start with the division leader, the Detroit Lions.

The Lions have won six of seven SU and ATS and are trying to win their first NFC North title since 1993. So while the Vikings already lost this week, they don’t want to give any hope to the Packers, who are starting to heat up and host a struggling Texans squad at Lambeau Sunday.

Everybody knows by now the Lions have trailed in the fourth quarter in each of their games this season. So many seem to think, this so called “luck” will run out and it may - just not this week when they visit the New Orleans Saints as 6-point pups.

The more interesting part of that stat is that they've never lost a game by more than a touchdown and their average margin of defeat is just 4.5 points. That's thanks in large part to a sneaky defense and an uber-efficient Matthew Stafford. Stafford has 19 touchdown passes to just five interceptions this season while completing almost 67 percent of his passes. In fact, the Lions have the third fewest turnovers this season with eight.

While the Saints are actually a better bet over the last eight games at 7-1 ATS, but they were only favored twice in those games and were 8-point faves against a much worse Rams team last week. New Orleans chucks around the ball better than anyone, but Stafford has looked good enough that the Lions can keep up in a track meet, especially against a suspect Saints pass defense.

New Orleans may win this game, but it won’t be by more than by a field goal.

Pick: Lions +6

Kansas City Chiefs (+5.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Next up is the Chiefs.

Kansas City sits at 8-3 this season and is a NFL-best 18-3 over its last 21 regular season games, but are still a game behind the Oakland Raiders for first place in the drum-tight AFC West.

On paper this looks like a bit of a mismatch: Kansas City’s 28th-ranked total defense against the Falcons third-ranked total offense. But the Chiefs pass the eye test (if you overlook that weird home loss to Tampa Bay two weeks ago).

The defense, while giving up a fair number of yards, locks it down in the red zone allowing just 19.5 points per game and the return of Justin Houston is a game changer. Houston already has three sacks, 12 tackles (five for a loss) and a forced fumbled in his first two games back.

The Chiefs defense will have its hands full with a high-flying Falcons offense, but should cause enough problems while getting serviceable work out of Alex Smith, Tyreke Hill & Co. on offense to keep this game competitive to the end.

Pick: Chiefs +5.5

New York Giants (+6) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Let’s end with the Giants.

This game has a ton of narratives. A matchup of super-elite receivers in Odell Beckham Jr. and Antonio Brown. The matchup of two Super Bowl winning quarterbacks taken from the same draft class, in Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger. Two teams getting hot at the right time. So much is comparable between these two teams and from from just that alone, six points feels like too many.

The Giants are one of the hottest teams in the NFL, winners of six in a row, going 5-1 ATS in the process and sit at 8-3 SU for the season. The competition hasn’t been great, but it’s been better than the Steelers, who have back-to-back wins over the Browns and an Andrew Luck-less Colts.

The difference maker here is Big Blue’s defense. The remake for this stop unit has worked. Safety Landon Collins is in the conversation for Defensive Player of the Year and Jason Pierre Paul is looking like his old self. The Steelers don’t have the player makers on defense like the Giants do.

Pick: Giants +6

Last Week: 2-1 ATS
Season: 20-15-1 ATS

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 13 (Thursday, December 1 - Monday, December 5)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 13 (Thursday, December 1 - Monday, December 5)

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment