NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 10 (Thursday, November 10 - Monday, November 12)

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, November 13

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Sunday Night Football betting preview: Seahawks at Patriots
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The Patriots are 4-0 SU/ATS since Tom Brady has returned to the lineup and are 7.5-pt faves in this Super Bowl 49 rematch.

Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots (-7.5, 49)

It's appropriate that the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks will occupy a prime-time slot on the NFL's schedule this weekend, since their last meeting produced one of the most dramatic finishes in league history. With both teams sitting atop their respective divisions, the Seahawks pay a visit to New England on Sunday night in their first matchup since Super Bowl XLIX.

The Seahawks were on the verge of winning back-to-back Super Bowls when they last saw the Patriots, perched at the 1-yard line with 20 seconds to play. Instead of running the ball, Seattle elected to pass and Russell Wilson was picked off by Malcolm Butler at the goal line in a stunning finish. “It’s a terrible memory," Seahawks offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell said Wednesday. “Every time it comes up it sticks in your gut. But it’s a new season." New England is looking every bit like a Super Bowl favorite, tied for the best record in the NFL and winning four straight by an average of 16.3 points since Tom Brady returned from a four-game suspension.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened as 7.5-point home favorites and, despite a brief drop to -7 on Friday, remain at the opening figure of -7.5 on Sunday night. The total hit the betting board at 48.5 and was bet up to 49.5 before ending up at 49. Check out the complete history here.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The Seattle Seahawks anxiously look to avenge a loss to the New England Patriots in Super Bowl 49 when they invade Foxborough Sunday night in what should be the top rated game NBC-TV this season to date. The question is whether Seattle's Super Bowl revenge outweighs Tom Brady’s revenge on the league since his return for the Deflategate suspension. It all comes down to QB Russell WIlson’s well documented success in games against former Super Bowl winning quarterbacks and Brady’s penchant for delivering in prime time games."

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for Gillette Stadium is calling for clear skies with temperature in the low 40’s with winds blowing west at 7mph.

INJURY REPORT:

Seahawks - TE Jimmy Graham (probable, knee), S Kam Chancellor (probable, groin), RB Christine Michael (questionable, hamstring), TE Luke Willson (questionable, knee) T Bradley Sowell (questionable, knee), CB DeAndre Elliott (questionable, hamstring), LB Cassius Marsh (questionable, foot), RB Thomas Rawls (out, shin)

Patriots - WR Malcolm Mitchell (probable, hamstring), TE Martellus Bennett (probable, leg), WR Julian Edelman (probable, foot), DL Alan Branch (questionable, back), DL Woodrow Hamilton (questionable, leg), RB Dion Lewis (probable, knee), G Tre Jackson (questionable, knee)

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (5–2-1 SU, 4-4 ATS, 4-4 O/U) Seattle is 3-0 against AFC East opponents, holding off Buffalo 31-25 on Monday night after winning at the New York Jets (27-17) in Week 4 and squeezing past Miami (12-10) in the season opener. Tight end Jimmy Graham is coming off his best game of the season as he prepares to resume a rivalry against Patriots stud Rob Gronkowski, hauling in a season-high eight catches for 103 yards and a pair of touchdowns. With the Seahawks limited to only 33 yards rushing on 12 attempts against Buffalo, running back Christine Michael could yield carries to rookie C.J. Prosise. Safety Kam Chancellor is expected back in the lineup to bolster a defense that has allowed 25 points in each of the past two games.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (7-1 SU, 7-1 ATS, 3-5 O/U) New England is coming off a bye week, leaving coach Bill Belichick to address questions on why he sent a letter of support to President-elect Donald Trump. The Patriots are averaging 34 points since the return of Brady, who has thrown for 1,319 yards with 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions while 73.1 percent of his passes and posting a quarterback rating of 133.9. Gronkowski, who had one reception through four weeks due to injury, has taken off with Brady back under center, reeling in 21 catches for 473 yards while reaching the end zone in each of the last three games. The Patriots, who won at Buffalo 41-25 before their bye, allowed 16.5 points per game -- just ahead of the Seahawks (16.8).

TRENDS:

Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.
Over is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 games on fieldturf.
Over is 5-0 in Patriots last 5 games in Week 10.
Over is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games following a bye week.
Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The bettors love the line for this game as users are split 50/50 on the line. As for the total, another 50/50 split.


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[Udog]

NFL

Monday, November 14

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Monday Night Football betting preview: Bengals at Giants
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The Giants have rebounded from a three-game skid by sandwiching a pair of home wins around a "road" victory at London.

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants (+1, 47)

Trying to keep pace with the surprising Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East, the New York Giants go for their fourth consecutive victory when they host the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday night. The Giants have rebounded from a three-game skid by sandwiching a pair of home wins around a "road" victory at London to remain two games off the division lead.

New York is coming off a 28-23 victory over Philadelphia, continuing a trend of being able to win the close games -- all five victories have come by a margin of 20 points. "We're getting better day by day," Giants star wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. said. "Right now we're in a good spot. Just got to keep winning." Prior to last week's bye, Cincinnati played in London and came away with a 27-27 tie with Washington, which posted a 29-27 win at New York in Week 3. The Bengals, who are looking up at first-place Baltimore (5-4) in the AFC North, have been held to 17 points or fewer in each of its losses.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Giants opened the betting week as 2.5-point home favorites but early action on the Bengals flipped that line to the Bengals as one-point road faves. The total opened at 47 and remains at that number as of Sunday evening. Check out the complete history here.

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast is calling for partly cloudy skies for opening kickoff, increasing cloud as the opening half progresses and a 60 percent chance of rain as the game moves into the second half. Temperatures will be around 50 degrees with barely a whisper of wind (1-2 mph).

INJURY REPORT:

Bengals - DE W. Gilberry (probable, personal), LB V. Burfict (probable, knee), WR J. Wright (questionable, hamstring), DE M. Johnson (questionable, calf), DT P. Sims (questionable, ribs), DT B. Thompson (questionable, knee), HB C. Peerman (questionable, arm), LB R. Maualuga (out, leg), CB W. Jackson III (I-R, pectoral), DT M. Hardison (I-R, shoulder), DT A. Billings (I-R, knee).

Giants - S A. Adams (questionable, shoulder), QB R. Nassib (questionable, elbow), DE K. Wynn (questionable, concussion), WR V. Cruz (doubful, ankle), G J. Pugh (early Dec, knee), S D. Thompson (I-R, foot), RB S. Vereen (elig week 12, tricep), S M. Thompson (I-R, knee), FB N. Whitlock (I-R, foot), LB J. Thomas (I-R, knee), FB W. Johnson (I-R, stinger), TE M. LaCosse (I-R, knee).

ABOUT THE BENGALS (3-4-1 SU, 3-5 ATS, 5-3 O/U): Quarterback Andy Dalton has a streak of four straight games with a 100-plus passer rating snapped in London, but he has thrown for 2,349 yards with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions. Star wide receiver A.J. Green is second in the NFL with 896 yards, including three games with at least 169 yards, and the offense received an added boost with the return of tight end Tyler Eifert against the Redskins. Eifert had 13 touchdowns last season and showed what a difference-maker he can be in his first start with nine catches for 102 yards and a score. Cincinnati's defense has been vulnerable through the air, allowing an average of 262.4 yards.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS, 3-5 O/U): Quarterback Eli Manning is coming off a four-touchdown performance against Philadelphia, the third time he has tossed at least three scoring passes in a game this season, but he also was picked off twice for the third time. Like Cincinnati, the Giants have a stud wideout in Beckham, who caught a pair of scoring passes against the Eagles to give him five in the past four games. The biggest problem for the Giants has been a stagnant running game led by Rashad Jennings that ranks last in the league with a meager average of 68.3 yards per game. Rookie Paul Perkins could see more time this week to help work the clock and protect a defense that yields 277.4 yards passing.

TRENDS:

Bengals are 0-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Giants are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Under is 8-1 in Bengals last 9 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Giants last 6 home games.
Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The home team New York Giants are picking up 59 percent of the point spread action and Over is grabbing 68 percent of the totals wagers.


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[Udog]

NFL opening line report: Cowboys heavily favored over visiting Ravens in Week 11

Rookie quarterback Dak Prescott and rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott just keep getting it done for Dallas, and Week 10 was no exception.

Through 10 weeks of the NFL season, the team with the best record in the land is the one that lost its starting quarterback in the preseason. We talk about the Week 11 opening lines with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor for offshore site Sportsbook.ag.

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys (-7)

Rookie quarterback Dak Prescott and rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott just keep getting it done for Dallas, and Week 10 was no exception. The Cowboys (8-1 SU and ATS) scored two touchdowns in the final two minutes – on Elliott runs of 14 and 32 runs, sandwiched between a Pittsburgh TD – to pull out a riveting 35-30 victory as a 3-point road underdog.

Since dropping their season opener against the visiting New York Giants, the Cowboys are a perfect 8-0 SU and ATS, sitting not only atop the NFC, but the rest of the league after New England lost to Seattle on Sunday night.

Baltimore (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) has posted back-to-back wins, both in division play, and now actually leads the muddled AFC North. The Ravens drubbed league doormat Cleveland 28-7 laying 7.5 points in the Week 10 Thursday nighter.

“The Cowboys are the hottest team in football, and they’re going to attract a ton of money in this game,” Childs said. “The Ravens, having played Thursday night, have what I like to call a ‘mini bye,’ giving them three days for extra rest and extra prep time. We opened the Cowboys a full touchdown favorite, and as expected, we’ve seen our fair share of Cowboys money. But not enough to move off the key number of 7, so we added 5 more cents of juice, going to -7 (-115).”

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks (-6)

Seattle just might be in its back-to-back Super Bowl seasons form. The Seahawks (6-2-1 SU, 5-4 ATS) went into New England on Sunday night as a 7.5-point pup and came out with a 31-24 victory after making a goal-line stand in the final minute.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia might be recapturing some of its early-season magic. The Eagles (5-4 SU and ATS) snapped a 1-4 SU and ATS slide by handcuffing Atlanta’s potent offense in a 24-15 win laying 2 points at home.

“After a very impressive Sunday night win, we opened the Seahawks -6,” Childs said. “While the Eagles have played solid football this season, they’re a disappointing 1-4 both straight up and against the spread on the road. Seattle is arguably the loudest and toughest place to play for road teams. Throw in the Seahawks’ impressive win on the road against one of the best teams in the NFL on national TV, and I can see this line only going up.”

Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins (-3)

Green Bay beat Washington in the wild-card round of the playoffs last year, but Aaron Rodgers and Co. return to D.C. looking nothing like the team that posted a 35-18 win getting 2 points. On Sunday at Tennessee, the Packers (4-5 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) gave up 35 first-half points in a 47-25 loss as a 3-point favorite.

Washington is trying to get in gear in the NFC playoff chase. The Redskins (5-3-1 SU, 6-3 ATS) topped Minnesota 26-20 as a 2.5-point home fave Sunday.

“No question, the Packers are the most disappointing team this season. For a team that had Super Bowl aspirations, they’re in a dogfight just to make the playoffs,” Childs said. “That said, they’ve been a bookmaker’s dream, because week in and week out, they’re taking action from the public and not getting the money. But this is flat out must win game for the Packers, against a team they dominated last year in the playoffs.

“The Redskins are off a very nice win over the Vikings, but playing in the ultra-competitive NFC East, this game is huge for them to keep pace for a wild-card spot. Throw in the fact that the ‘Skins face three straight road games after this game, and it’s almost a must-win home game for them.”

Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders (-5.5)

Oakland is in unfamiliar territory for this time of year, tied atop the AFC West with Kansas City, and both those teams share the conference’s best record with New England. The Raiders (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) will be well-rested, coming off their bye week after stuffing defending Super Bowl champion Denver 30-20 as a 1-point chalk in Week 9.

Houston (6-3 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) maintained its lead in the lackluster AFC South by beating Jacksonville 24-21 catching 3 points on the road Sunday.

“The Raiders are coming off arguably their biggest win in franchise history in the past 10 years,” Childs said. “They beat the defending Super Bowl champs at home in a Sunday night prime-time game. They are playing with a ton of confidence, having won three straight and six of their last seven games.

“But the Texans are off a solid win on the road, albeit against a very bad Jags teams. It was Houston’s first road win of the season. We opened Raiders -5.5, and all the early action is on the Raiders, so we just went to -6 this morning.”