Announcement

**Udog** · 11-07-2016, 12:33 PM

NFL opening line report: Steelers open as three-point faves over Cowboys for Week 10

“I don’t like this spot at all for the Cowboys. This team is very fat and happy, winning seven straight and off their most dominating win of the year."

Week 10 of the NFL season features a showdown of traditional powerhouses. We talk about the opening line for that matchup and three others this week with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor for offshore site Sportsbook.ag.

Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

Dallas continues to roll behind rookie quarterback Dak Prescott and rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott, winning seven in a row SU and ATS after losing its regular-season opener. The Cowboys (7-1 SU and ATS) rolled league doormat Cleveland 35-10 Sunday as a 7-point road chalk.

Pittsburgh got Ben Roethlisberger back for Sunday’s game at Baltimore, but it sure didn’t help much. The Steelers (4-4 SU and ATS) trailed 21-0 early in the fourth quarter before getting a couple late TDs to make a 21-14 loss look more respectable than it was. Pittsburgh, which went off as a 3.5-point favorite, has now dropped three in a row SU and ATS.

“The Steelers are coming off a brutal performance,” Childs said. “They scored two fourth-quarter TDs to make the score respectable, but their play certainly wasn’t. They will need a monster effort here against the Cowboys, a team playing at a high level and off a very dominating win against the Browns.”

That said, if there’s a letdown looming, Childs thinks it could be this week.

“I don’t like this spot at all for the Cowboys,” he said. “This team is very fat and happy, winning seven straight and off their most dominating win of the year. This is their second of back-to-back road games, going into Steel Country, playing a very upset Steelers team. No question, the Steelers will bring 100 percent focus and effort against the Cowboys. I’m not that sure you can say the same about the Cowboys.”

Dallas’ current run, and all the public support that surge has brought at the betting window, made this a tough line to set.

“I wanted to open the Steelers a 3.5-point home favorite, but was convinced that bettors would support the Cowboys at just 3, and boy did they ever,” he said. “We hung 3 and got hammered with Cowboys money. We quickly went to 2.5, and they’re still hammering the Cowboys. At 2.5, we’re not going to be too quick to move the number. The Steelers are a very good team coming off a horrific effort, so I’m more than happy going into this game needing them for a decent decision.”

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-1)

Philadelphia’s 3-0 SU and ATS start behind new coach Doug Pederson and rookie QB Carson Wentz seems like a distant memory. The Eagles (4-4 SU and ATS) have dropped four of five SU and ATS, including Sunday’s 28-23 loss at the New York Giants as a 3-point pup.

Atlanta (6-3 SU and ATS) played in the Week 9 Thursday nighter, topping Tampa Bay 43-28 laying 4.5 points on the highway. Childs said bettors already like the Falcons this week.

“We opened Eagles -1, and most of the early money is on the road team,” he said. “The Eagles are off a disappointing loss, actually back-to-back disappointing losses, losing last week in overtime against the Cowboys in a game they absolutely should have won in regulation.

“The Falcons are off a very nice, convincing win over the Bucs, so they come into this game with extra rest and prep time. At the rate the action is coming in on the Falcons, I see us getting to pick ’em at some point Monday. For now, we’re fine dealing Eagles -1.”

Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots (-7.5)

New England is coming off its bye week, so a team running red-hot will also be well-rested for this Sunday night prime-time tilt. In Week 10, the Patriots (7-1 SU and ATS) avenged their lone loss of the year, dumping Buffalo 41-25 as a 7.5-point road fave. New England is 4-0 SU and ATS since the return of Tom Brady, who has 12 TD passes and no interceptions in that stretch.

Seattle still has work to do in Week 9, hosting Buffalo in the Monday nighter. The Seahawks (4-2-1 SU, 3-4 ATS) are in the midst of an up-and-down year, with the past two weeks a microcosm of that: a 6-6 tie at Arizona, followed by a 25-20 loss at New Orleans giving 1 point.

The current form of these two teams forced Sportsbook.ag to be generous to the Pats this week.

“The Patriots have been crushing bookies all season, so this line is a tad inflated,” Childs said. “I wanted to hang -7, but we opened -7.5, and sure enough, we’re seeing mostly all Patriots money. We went to -7.5 (-115) on the Patriots, charging some extra juice in hopes of discouraging more Pats money.

“But with the Seahawks playing on Monday night, so much will depend on how they perform in front of a national TV audience, because we’ll reopen this game Tuesday morning. Whatever happens in that game, we’ll open the Patriots as high as possible (Tuesday), because they’ve single-handedly cost us a small fortune this season.”

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants (-3, even)

Cincinnati probably got its bye week at an opportune time this weekend, as a playoff team from last year is struggling to tread water this season. In Week 8, the Bengals (3-4-1 SU, 3-5 ATS) settled for a 27-27 tie with Washington.

Meanwhile, New York has put a three-game losing streak behind it by winning two in a row. The Giants (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) fended off Philadelphia 28-23 Sunday laying 3 points at home.

New York and Cincy will be under the Monday night spotlight, wrapping up Week 10.

“We opened the Giants -3 even money, Bengals +3 (-120), and so far, it’s very split, even action,” Childs said. “It’s a great Monday night matchup, but I don’t see this game getting lopsided in either direction. This will be a nice, two-way write for us, and unless a sharp group comes in on a side, we won’t be moving this number all that much.”

**Udog** · 11-07-2016, 12:34 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 10

Thursday, November 10

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CLEVELAND (0 - 9) at BALTIMORE (4 - 4) - 11/10/2016, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 3-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 4-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, November 13

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HOUSTON (5 - 3) at JACKSONVILLE (2 - 6) - 11/13/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-1 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 4-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS CITY (6 - 2) at CAROLINA (3 - 5) - 11/13/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 155-121 ATS (+21.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DENVER (6 - 3) at NEW ORLEANS (4 - 4) - 11/13/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LA RAMS (3 - 5) at NY JETS (3 - 6) - 11/13/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 174-217 ATS (-64.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 174-217 ATS (-64.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NY JETS are 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (6 - 3) at PHILADELPHIA (4 - 4) - 11/13/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (5 - 3) at WASHINGTON (4 - 3 - 1) - 11/13/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 55-90 ATS (-44.0 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 81-110 ATS (-40.0 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 81-110 ATS (-40.0 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 81-110 ATS (-40.0 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (4 - 4) at TENNESSEE (4 - 5) - 11/13/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 46-26 ATS (+17.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 7-23 ATS (-18.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CHICAGO (2 - 6) at TAMPA BAY (3 - 5) - 11/13/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 2-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 2-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (4 - 4) at SAN DIEGO (4 - 5) - 11/13/2016, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 51-78 ATS (-34.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
MIAMI is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 39-17 ATS (+20.3 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 1-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 1-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 7) at ARIZONA (3 - 4 - 1) - 11/13/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 4-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 4-1 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (7 - 1) at PITTSBURGH (4 - 4) - 11/13/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 87-60 ATS (+21.0 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DALLAS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games this season.
DALLAS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
DALLAS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
DALLAS is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SEATTLE (4 - 2 - 1) at NEW ENGLAND (7 - 1) - 11/13/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 110-80 ATS (+22.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, November 14

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CINCINNATI (3 - 4 - 1) at NY GIANTS (5 - 3) - 11/14/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 52-33 ATS (+15.7 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 34-60 ATS (-32.0 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 31-55 ATS (-29.5 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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**Udog** · 11-07-2016, 12:34 PM

NFL

Week 10

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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 10

8:25 PM
CLEVELAND vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cleveland's last 8 games
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games when playing Cleveland
Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Cleveland

Sunday, November 13

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 9 games when playing Tampa Bay
Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Tampa Bay is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games

1:00 PM
DENVER vs. NEW ORLEANS
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
Denver is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New Orleans's last 9 games at home

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. PHILADELPHIA
Atlanta is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Atlanta is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. WASHINGTON
Minnesota is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Washington's last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. CAROLINA
Kansas City is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games
Kansas City is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Carolina's last 25 games
Carolina is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. NY JETS
Los Angeles is 7-2 SU in their last 9 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Los Angeles's last 10 games on the road
NY Jets are 2-7 SU in their last 9 games when playing Los Angeles
NY Jets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games when playing Los Angeles

1:00 PM
GREEN BAY vs. TENNESSEE
Green Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Green Bay's last 23 games
Tennessee is 3-13-1 ATS in its last 17 games
Tennessee is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 10 games
Houston is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Jacksonville is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Jacksonville's last 23 games

4:05 PM
MIAMI vs. SAN DIEGO
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games
San Diego is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Miami

4:25 PM
DALLAS vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Dallas's last 9 games on the road
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Pittsburgh is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Dallas

4:25 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. ARIZONA
San Francisco is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Arizona's last 12 games when playing at home against San Francisco
Arizona is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games

8:30 PM
SEATTLE vs. NEW ENGLAND
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing Seattle

Monday, November 14

8:30 PM
CINCINNATI vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games
Cincinnati is 2-6-2 ATS in its last 10 games
NY Giants are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Giants last 7 games when playing Cincinnati

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**Udog** · 11-08-2016, 10:29 AM

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 10 NFL lines are going to move

Early betting favors the Giants, so NY backers might want to pounce before heavy action out of the Northeast moves the line.

Game to bet on now

Cincinnati at New York Giants (-2.5)

Three straight losses (Washington, Minnesota, Green Bay) resulted in some analysts leaving the streaky Giants for road kill early last month, but things are peachy again in Gotham after three consecutive victories. And now New York (5-3 and two games behind the Cowboys in the NFC East) begins a stretch of three very winnable games against sub-.500 competition, starting with the enigmatic Bengals at home. The Bengals have four losses against what passes as the iron of the league in today’s NFL (New England, Dallas, Pittsburgh and Denver), but could have their hands full on Sunday. Early betting favors the Giants, so NY backers might want to pounce before heavy action out of the Northeast moves the line to 3.

Game to wait on

Los Angeles at New York Jets (-2.5)

It’s a little too early to throw in the towel, but Jets fans have a right to ask just what the heck is going on with their team. Matt Forte was supposed to power a strong running game that made up for Ryan Fitzpatrick’s QB deficiencies, and the defense was supposed to be rock solid. Instead, the Jets are 3-6 SU and have given up the most points (and scored the fewest) in the AFC East. More bad news – the Jets have two games left against the Patriots. Miami and Buffalo have “catapulted” the Jets by playing .500 ball. NY is not sure about Fitzpatrick this weekend, but reportedly he’ll play if his ailing knee responds to treatment. Bettors might want to hang on a bit, because backup Bryce Petty has taken only a few snaps in his career.

Total to watch

San Francisco at Arizona (48)

Over players need to be careful here. Arizona has struggled to find any kind of consistent offense this season, but somehow the Cardinals have put together the league’s No. 1 defense (statistically, anyway). San Francisco’s offense, meanwhile, too often seems like it’s moving uphill. The 49ers’ best shot in this one is to establish a ground attack and shorten the game, then try to make a few plays in the fourth quarter. The total has already been bet down from 49, and could go even a bit lower.

**Udog** · 11-08-2016, 02:31 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 10

Thurs – Nov. 10

Cleveland at Baltimore, 8:25 PM ET
Cleveland: 5-15 ATS as an underdog
Baltimore: 16-5 ATS off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog

Sun – Nov. 13

Houston at Jacksonville, 1:00 PM ET
Houston: 8-1 ATS as a favorite
Jacksonville: 7-19 ATS after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game

Kansas City at Carolina, 1:00 PM ET
Kansas City: 11-24 ATS in road games after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7
Carolina: 14-5 ATS after playing their last game on the road

Denver at New Orleans, 1:00 PM ET
Denver: 17-4 OVER after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game
New Orleans: 4-14 ATS in home games after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7

Los Angeles at NY Jets, 1:00 PM ET
Los Angeles: 7-22 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games
New York: 8-2 ATS after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games

Atlanta at Philadelphia, 1:00 PM ET
Atlanta: 37-57 ATS after scoring 30 points or more last game
Philadelphia: 47-29 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs

Minnesota at Washington, 1:00 PM ET
Minnesota: 9-1 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less
Washington: 6-17 ATS in home games after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game

Green Bay at Tennessee, 1:00 PM ET
Green Bay: 32-16 ATS in road games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games
Tennessee: 1-9 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games

Chicago at Tampa Bay, 1:00 PM ET
Chicago: 1-5 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game
Tampa Bay: 6-0 ATS after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored

Miami at San Diego, 4:05 PM ET
Miami: 17-5 ATS in road games off in 2 straight division games
San Diego: 4-16 ATS in home games after allowing 35 points or more last game

San Francisco at Arizona, 4:25 PM ET
San Francisco: 0-6 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs
Arizona: 23-10 ATS in home games after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game

Dallas at Pittsburgh, 4:25 PM ET
Dallas: 6-17 ATS in road games after a win by 21 or more points
Pittsburgh: 15-2 ATS in home games off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite

Seattle at New England, 8:30 PM ET
Seattle: 19-27 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
New England: 15-6 ATS off 1 or more straight overs

Mon – Nov. 14

Cincinnati at NY Giants, 8:30 PM ET
Cincinnati: 6-0 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored
New York: 62-39 UNDER off a home win

**Udog** · 11-09-2016, 10:33 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

NFL trends with Week 10 hovering on the horizon……

— Cleveland is 6-15-1 in its last 22 games as an underdog.

— Dallas Cowboys won/covered their last seven games.

— Washington covered nine of its last 12 games.

— Buccaneers are 3-9 vs spread in their last 12 games.

— Jaguars are 6-13-1 in last 20 games as a home underdog.

— Cincinnati is 21-10-3 vs NFC teams; Giants are 5-1 vs the AFC.

**Udog** · 11-09-2016, 11:28 AM

NFL Week 10 lines that make you go hmmm...

Dallas is at Pittsburgh in Week 10, getting 2.5 points from sportsbooks. Find out why this number is making this Vegas oddsmaker go "hmmm..."

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-10, 45)

The total in this game caught my eye for this AFC North rivalry on Thursday Night Football. As a 10-point favorite, one may assume the game will be controlled by the dominating team. Baltimore showed quite well versus Pittsburgh this past week, particularly its defense scheme. I don’t see how the Ravens won’t continue that trend against Cleveland.

They’re averaging less than 40 points per game and with the abbreviated work week, we don’t really see the teams trying to run up the score in this intra-divisional contest. Cleveland doesn’t have the firepower to suddenly chalk up too many points against a premier defensive unit. I can’t envision this game producing six touchdowns and a field goal just to tie the total. Any scoreless quarter will make it that much tougher to achieve.

Thursday nights haven’t produced the kind of excitement we usually feel for weekday games. At this point, we see both teams thinking about the extended time off after the game is over than playing full-tilt football. Go with the Under and watch your favorite hockey team instead on another channel.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1, 42.5)

On the surface, this game looks like a first place team facing a last place team at near pick ‘em – an easy play on the small favorite. But there are some red flags with that assumption that has us going with the home dog in this one.

First, Houston has had a favorable schedule to this point and it’s been all or nothing when it comes to where it plays. At 5-3, all five wins came at home and all three losses on the road. In those three losses, Houston has been outscored 85-22. Conversely, Jacksonville has played a much tougher schedule and has been competitive in its home losses to Green Bay and Baltimore and took a tough loss from Oakland besides the one lone win over Indianapolis.

No one outside of WR DeAndre Hopkins scares me offensively for Houston. And although, the Jaguars are missing that big-play threat, the team has enough results to read between the lines in this game. I also feel the Jaguars will have the incentive on their side. One win here against the division leader and that tightens things up significantly. It’s the perfect storm for the underdogs to prevail this weekend.

Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers (-3.5, 48)

The Dolphins head into this game off two good wins against divisional rivals Buffalo and New York. And after a disastrous start, the Chargers are winning with some regularity and have played a tougher schedule than Miami. I made the Chargers closer to -6 which makes this an attractive take on the home favorite.

The Dolphins just completed a four-game home stretch with solid results but have not fared well on the road this season. Their losses to Seattle (second game of the season when they weren’t playing well) and a Brady-less Patriots team was followed by a collapse in Cincinnati in their last road game.

San Diego has found its rhythm with three wins in the past four games against the likes of Denver, Atlanta, and Tennessee. The Bolts stand 3-1 at home and they’ve gone toe-to-toe with the most explosive offenses in the league in both wins and losses.

This one won’t be a runaway by any means but the angles of success and failure favor the Chargers. San Diego also can look ahead to a weekend off after this game’s completion with their bye week coming up so they can really let it all hang out in this one. The incentive is with the home team here and we like that angle the best.

Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5, 50)

I’m not quite sure what the stronger play is: taking Dallas or taking the Under in this game? All of this focuses on the Steelers lack of scoring the past three games (14, 15 and 16 points) and the terrific defense by Dallas this season. I made this closer to pick with a total of 45 to 46 at best. I’m more inclined to take the Under here as both teams can bring the defense and I find it hard that this game will see more than seven touchdowns and a field goal in the allotted possessions.

Pittsburgh has only gone over 50 twice this season and has been Under in six of its last seven games. Dallas has been over 50 once (and it took overtime to do it) so far this season. Any possessions ending in field goals will take that many more possessions and scoring results to push this Over the total. Not that it can’t be done, but the way the teams are playing at this time, 50 points seems like an awful high total to achieve Sunday.

A big game for both teams, the hype for such a contest usually will bring out the best in defensive play early. That will dictate the rest of the game’s flow. If it’s a close contest throughout, expect time management to devour a ton of clock with field goals being the premium score. I’m not sure how this one got out there so high for the opener but I just don’t see it happening. Stick with the Under.

**Udog** · 11-09-2016, 10:39 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 10

Thursday's game

Cleveland (0-9) @ Baltimore (4-4)- Ravens (-6.5) trailed 20-0 in Cleveland in Week 2, rallied to win 25-20; they’re 15-2 in last 17 series games, 7-1 in last eight played here- Browns lost 33-30 in OT here LY. Baltimore ended 4-game skid with win over Steelers LW, are atop NFC North despite 4-4 record; they are 1-6-1 in last eight games as a home favorite, 1-2 this year. Winless Browns have been outscored 148-51 in second half of games; they’re 2-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 19-6-11-2-14 points. Ravens have only four offensive TDs in last four games; their only score LW was on 95-yard pass in 1st quarter. Browns allowed 610 yards on ground in last three games. Over is 6-2 in last eight Cleveland games, 3-1 in Ravens’ last four. Home side is 4-0 vs spread in AFC North divisional games.

Sunday's games
Houston (5-3) @ Jacksonville (2-6)— Texans are 0-3 on road, 5-0 at home, losing on foreign soil by combined score of 84-22, albeit vs Pats-Denver-Vikings, all winning teams; they’ve had only two takeaways in last six games (-8). Home side is 7-0-1 vs spread in their games. Jaguars ran ball for 205 yards LW in Arrowhead under their new OC, after averaging 73.9 rushing yards/game under old OC. Jax was -4 in turnovers LW or they might’ve upset Chiefs (outgained KC 449-231)— they’re 0-3 at home, losing by 4-2-17 points. Jaguars have zero takeaways in their last four games (-10). Texans are 9-7-1 under O’Brien in games with spread of 3 or less points; Jaguars are 6-12 under Bradley in such games, 2-2 this year. Houston is 9-2 in last 11 series games, winning last four, three by 11+ points- they won four of last five visits here. Texans won four of last five post-bye games.

Kansas City (6-2) @ Carolina (3-5)— Panthers are 2-0 since bye week, allowing only 83 rushing yards on 27 carries; they’re 12-29 on 3rd down last two games, after being 4-19 in two games before that. KC struggled in red zone LW (16 points on 4 drives) wit backup QB Foles playing, but is 4-0 since bye; they’re 4-8 in last 12 games as a home favorite, 1-3 this year, winning home games by 6-21-6-5 points. Chiefs are 3-2 in series; home side won three of last four meetings. Teams split two meetings here, with last visit in ’08. NFC South non-divisional home favorites are 2-5 vs spread. AFC West road underdogs are 6-3. Six of last seven KC games stayed under total; over is 5-3 in Carolina games. Chiefs’ last three games were all decided by 6 or less points; three of last four Carolina games were decided by exactly three points.

Denver (6-3) @ New Orleans (4-4)— Saints rallied to 4-4 after an 0-3 start; they’re 2-2 at home, with dogs covering all four games (average total, 67.5). NO has 15 TDs on 42 drives at home; unless Denver comes up with turnovers and creates short field for their defense, tough to imagine Siemian matching points with Brees here. Broncos are 2-3 in last five games after a 6-0 start; they had only 90 rushing yards in last two games combined. In last three games, Denver is 11-37 on third down (29.7%), after being 29-77 (37.7%) in first six games- they won only previous game on artificial turf, in Week 3 at Cincy. Broncos’ average starting field position LW was their own 19, worst in NFL- they are 8-2 vs New Orleans, winning last four meetings, three by 15+ points. NFL teams are 16-9 vs spread this season in their pre-bye games.

Rams (3-5) @ Jets (3-6)— Two teams with QB issues. LA lost its last four games, scoring one TD on its last 22 drives; Rams are 4-12-1 vs spread in last 17 games where number was 3 or less points. Not sure if Fitzpatrick (knee) or Petty (would be 1st start) gets nod at QB for Jets, who scored 26 pts/game the last three weeks. New York scored to go ahead LW in Miami with under 6:00 left, looked ready to win 3rd game in row, but Dolphins ran kick back for game-winning TD. Neither team has led at halftime since Week 2. Jets won last two meetings 47-3/27-13; Rams are 4-2 vs Jets in last six visits here, but last visit was 2008. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 2-7 vs spread, 2-3 on road. AFC East favorites are 6-2, 3-2 at home. Under is 5-3 in Rams’ games, 4-1 in Jets’ last five.

Falcons (6-3) @ Eagles (4-4)— Atlanta is 4-1 on road, with only road loss 26-24 in Seattle- they scored nine TDs on 17 drives in last two games. Philly lost four of last five games after 3-0 start; Wentz threw picks on first two drives LW, as Giants led 14-0 5:07 into game- their late rally fell just short. Eagles are 3-0 at home, winning by 14-31-11 points; they’ve allowed only two TDs on 31 drives at home this year (under 3-0). Atlanta won last three series games, by 4-13-2 points; they’ve lost six of last seven visits here, but won last one, in 2012. Over is 7-1 in Falcon games, 4-1 in last five Philly games. NFL teams are 16-9 vs spread this season in their pre-bye games. NFC East non-divisional home teams are 7-2 vs spread; NFC South road teams are 8-2. Atlanta has 11 TD plays of 20+ plays this season, most in the league.

Vikings (5-3) @ Redskins (4-3-1)— Minnesota is 0-3 since its bye, its OC quit, its starting OT’s are hurt; Vikings scored 4 TD’s on 29 drives in last three games, scoring 26 points on last ten red zone drives- they were outscored 34-9 in first half last three games, with no TDs. Minnesota is +12 in turnovers for season but has only one takeaway in last couple games. Washington is 2-2 at home, with all four games going over total; average total in those games is 50.5. Redskins are 8-8 vs spread under Gruden, in games with spread of 3 or less points; Vikings are 14-6 in such games under Zimmer. NFL teams coming off a bye this year are 9-5-2 vs spread this season, but Washington is 1-7 in last eight post-bye games, losing last three by 15-20-17 points. Zimmer/Gruden spent time together as coordinators in Cincinnati.

Packers (4-4) @ Titans (4-5)— Tennessee has allowed seven TDs on offense/special teams this year, two more than anyone else in NFL (Jets). Titans are 2-3 at home, with last three home games going over; they scored 32.3 pts/game the last three weeks but lost two of three. Green Bay scored 58 points in last two games but lost both of them, getting drilled at home by Colts LW. Packers are 1-2 on road this year, with only win in opener at Jax (27-23, -4.5); Pack is 7-6 in last 13 games as road favorites, 0-2 this year. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 4-8 vs spread, 1-2 on road; AFC South underdogs are 5-8, 1-3 at home. Tennessee is 4-12-1 vs spread in last 17 games where spread was 3 or less points; Packers are 6-10 in last 16. Last six Tennessee games went over total; over is 2-1 in Green Bay games.

Bears (2-6) @ Buccaneers (3-5)— Tampa Bay got whacked at home LW, is now 17-43 in its last 60 home games, 0-4 this year. Bucs allowed 34.3 pts/game at home this year, gave up 140 rushing yards/game their last four games. Bears are 0-4 as road underdogs this year, losing on foreign soil by 9-14-6-16 points. Chicago is 7-3 in last ten post-bye games, but lost last two, by 55-14/23-20 scores. Bears won five of last six series games, winning last three by 6-8-5 points; Bears won three of last four visits here. Five of last six series games were decided by 6 or less points. NFC South non-divisional home teams are 3-6 vs spread this season; NFC North road teams are 5-6. Last three Tampa Bay games went over total; four of last five Chicago games stayed under. Bucs were outscored in second half in 6 of last 7 games, 27-14/23-14 in last two.

Dolphins (4-4) @ Chargers (4-5)— Miami won its last three games, running ball for 205 yds/game with no turnovers (+4); Fish were -7 in turnovers their first five games- this is their first road game since Sept 29. Dolphins are 0-3 on road this year, losing by 2-7-15 points; they’re 5-9 in last 14 games as a road underdog, 1-2 this year. Chargers won three of last four games, covered four of last five; they converted 21-41 third down plays in last three games. SD is 12-16 in last 28 games as a home favorite, 2-1 this year. Home side won last six series games; Miami lost last three visits here, by 10-10-16 points. AFC West non-divisional home favorites are 5-5 vs spread; AFC East road underdogs are 3-5. Five of last six San Diego games went over the total.

49ers (1-7) @ Cardinals (3-4-1)— Arizona (-3.5) won first meeting this year 33-21 in Santa Clara, with first two TDs coming on drives of 21-14 yards. Redbirds won four of last five series games, winning 23-14/47-7 in last two played here- they’re 2-2-1 SU at home this year, 2-3 as a home favorite, with only wins 40-7/28-3 over Bucs/Jets. 49ers lost last seven games, allowing 33+ points in six of them; they’re 0-3 as a road underdog this year, losing away games by 19-19-29 points. Niners allowed 100+-yard rusher in each of last seven games, good news for Arizona RB Johnson’s fantasy owners. Cardinals are 2-4 in last six post-bye games, but were a dog in five of those six games. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 13-13-1 vs spread. Six of 49ers’ last seven games went over total.

Cowboys (7-1) @ Steelers (4-4)— Dallas won/covered its last seven games, scoring 30.5 pts/game in last four; Cowboys are 4-0 on road, with last three of those games staying under total. Dallas ran ball for 186.5 yards/game in last six games, taking heat off rookie QB Prescott, who averaged 8+ yards/pass attempt in five of last seven games. Steelers lost last three games, scoring 15 pts/game; they were outscored 40-18 in first half of those games. Big Ben was rusty in his return in Baltimore LW. Pitt is 3-1 at home, with only loss to Pantriots, when Jones played QB. NFC East non-divisional road teams are 5-3 vs spread; AFC North home teams are 4-6. Romo is healthy again, but why would you take out a QB who is 7-1? Four of last five Cowboy games, six of last seven Steeler games stayed under total.

Seahawks (5-2-1) @ Patriots (7-1)— New England is 4-0 since Brady came back, with all four wins by 11+ points. Seattle scored total of one offensive TD in its tie/losses- they scored 15 in five wins. First meeting since Super Bowl two years ago, game lost by Seahawks when they threw from 1-yard line in last 1:00 and ball was picked. Consider that Carroll was fired so Patriots could hire Belichick- this game has to have extra meaning for him. New England won 47-20/30-6 in last two post-bye games; long trip east on short week for Seahawks after beating Bills in tough Monday night home game. Seahawks won four of last five visits here, but last visit was 12 years ago- last three series games were decided by 4 or less points. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 6-2 vs spread; NFC West underdogs are 2-7.

Monday's game
Bengals (3-4-1) @ Giants (5-3)— Giants won/covered last three games; they’re 3-1 at home, 2-2 as home favorite, winning by 3-4-5 points, with 29-27 loss to Redskins. Four of NY’s last six TDs came on drives of less than 40 yards or were scored by defense. Bengals lost last three road games, by 8-14-18 points; their only road win was here in Week 1 vs Jets, after they had been 1-12 in Swamp Stadium, 1-3 vs Jets, 0-9 vs Giants. Home side won last nine series games. Cincy is 0-2 as an underdog this year, after being 7-2-1 as road dog last two years- they’re 5-3 vs spread in last eight post-bye games. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 6-2 vs spread; AFC North underdogs are 2-8. Last three Bengal games went over total, as did three of four Giant home games.

**Udog** · 11-10-2016, 08:42 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 10

Thursday, November 10

Cleveland @ Baltimore

Game 109-110
November 10, 2016 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
125.067
Baltimore
126.864
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 10
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+10); Over

Sunday, November 13

Seattle @ New England

Game 273-274
November 13, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
141.159
New England
140.540
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 1
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 7 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(+7 1/2); Over

Dallas @ Pittsburgh

Game 271-272
November 13, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
134.262
Pittsburgh
140.069
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 6
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 2
50
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-2); Under

San Francisco @ Arizona

Game 269-270
November 13, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
124.391
Arizona
130.911
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 6 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 13 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+13 1/2); Over

Miami @ San Diego

Game 267-268
November 13, 2016 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
131.357
San Diego
137.197
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 6
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego
by 3 1/2
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(-3 1/2); Over

Chicago @ Tampa Bay

Game 265-266
November 13, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
130.191
Tampa Bay
127.390
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 3
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 1
46
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+1); Under

Green Bay @ Tennessee

Game 263-264
November 13, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
135.441
Tennessee
125.811
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 9 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 2 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-2 1/2); Over

Minnesota @ Washington

Game 261-262
November 13, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
128.926
Washington
135.580
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 6 1/2
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 3
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-3); Under

Atlanta @ Philadelphia

Game 259-260
November 13, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
136.090
Philadelphia
138.693
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 2 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
Pick
50
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
Over

Los Angeles @ NY Jets

Game 257-258
November 13, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Los Angeles
129.964
NY Jets
128.823
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Los Angeles
by 1
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Jets
by 2
40
Dunkel Pick:
Los Angeles
(+2); Under

Denver @ New Orleans

Game 255-256
November 13, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
132.710
New Orleans
137.209
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 4 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 2 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-2 1/2); Under

Kansas City @ Carolina

Game 253-254
November 13, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
136.593
Carolina
134.084
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 2 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(+3); Over

Houston @ Jacksonville

Game 251-252
November 13, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
126.105
Jacksonville
129.862
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 4
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 1 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(+1 1/2); Under

Monday, November 14

Cincinnati @ NY Giants

Game 275-276
November 14, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
130.585
NY Giants
136.261
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Giants
by 5 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Giants
by 2
47
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(-2); Under

**Udog** · 11-10-2016, 08:45 AM

NFL

Thursday, November 10

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football betting preview: Browns at Ravens
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ravens' quarterback Joe Flacco has more interceptions (seven) than TD passes (six) and a paltry 76.0 passer rating.

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-10, 45)

The Cleveland Browns will be looking to avoid moving one step closer to a dubious league record when they visit the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday night. The Browns not only are attempting to avoid matching the worst start in franchise history, but also end the chances of joining the Detroit Lions as the only team to finish 0-16.

"We're not going to go 0-16. That's for a fact," Cleveland linebacker Chris Kirksey said following Sunday's 35-10 home drubbing by Dallas. "We're not going to be winless". One of the reasons the Browns are in this predicament is a 25-20 loss to Baltimore in Week 2, when they blew a 20-2 first-quarter lead. The Ravens were mired in a slide of their own heading into their bye, but snapped a four-game skid with a 21-14 win over visiting Pittsburgh on Sunday. That victory moved Baltimore back to the .500 mark and, more importantly, into a tie with the Steelers atop the AFC North.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The Baltimore Ravens opened as big 10.5-point home favorite over the winless Cleveland Browns and by Wednesday night that number was down to -10. The total opened at 45.5 and came down slightly to 45. View the complete line history here.

WEATHER: Conditions are expected to be clear with temperatures at around 50 degrees at kickoff. It's not expected to rain (POP 1-2 percent) and winds will be light (5 mph) and not a factor on the field.

INJURIES:

Browns - WR R. Louis (probable, hamstring), OL J. Thomas (probable, knee), DL J. Meder (probable, knee), DL C. Nassib (probable, eye), QB C. Kessler (probable, leg), WR T. Pryor Sr. (probable, hamstring), LB N. Orchard (questionable, ankle), DB J. Haden (questionable, groin), DB J. Taylor (out, groin), WR J. Gordon (out indefinitely, suspension), QB R. Griffin III (questionable, shoulder).

Ravens - RB K. Dixon (probable, chest), CB S. Wright (questionable, hamstring), TE C. Gilmore (questionable, thigh), LB K. Correa (questionable, thigh), G M. Yanda (doubtful, shoulder), LB E. Dumervil (out indefinitely, foot).

ABOUT THE BROWNS (0-9 SU, 2-7 ATS, 6-3 O/U): Cleveland has had a revolving door at quarterback, losing starter Robert Griffin III in the season opener and watching Josh McCown suffer a broken collarbone against the Ravens. While McCown returned to the lineup in a narrow loss to the New York Jets in Week 8, coach Hue Jackson went back to Cody Kessler on Sunday and will stick with the rookie Thursday despite a nondescript effort against the Cowboys. The Browns managed only 45 yards rushing versus Dallas, including four on six carries by Isaiah Crowell, who ran for a season-high 133 yards and a touchdown in Week 2. The Browns are yielding 421.7 yards and 30.3 points per game, each ranking 31st in the league.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS, 3-4-1 O/U): Baltimore's defense came up big in the win over bitter rival Pittsburgh, holding the Steelers to 277 total yards and 36 on the ground to build a 21-0 lead in the third quarter. There remain plenty of concerns over the offense, which produced one touchdown -- a 95-yard scoring pass to wideout Mike Wallace -- and also labored on the ground, rushing for 50 yards on 29 carries. Baltimore ranks 28th in the league with 81.8 yards rushing per game and is averaging 2.2 yards per carry over the past three contests -- a full two yards less than in the first five games. Quarterback Joe Flacco has more interceptions (seven) than TD passes (six) and a paltry 76.0 passer rating.

TRENDS:

* Browns are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC North.
* Ravens are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
* Over is 6-0 in Browns last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
* Under is 4-1 in Ravens last 5 home games.
* Road team is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The bettors are backing the Browns with 63 percent of the wagers on the road underdogs. As for the total, 51 percent of bettors are taking the Over.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 11-11-2016, 08:37 AM

Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Bottom 5, Top 8 in the NFL

32) Browns— Cleveland is 0-10, but not the only team that has trailed all its games in 4th quarter. 5-4 Lions have trailed all nine of their games in 4th quarter- they easily could be 0-9, or 8-1.

31) 49ers— Allowed a 100-yard rusher in each of their last seven games, which doesn’t happen very often.

30) Jaguars— Ran ball better last week than they have all season but teams that turn ball over four times almost never win. Host a Houston team this week that is 0-3 on the road.

29) Bears— They should start playing better with Cutler back at QB and Bucs-Titans-49ers on schedule in next month. For what it is worth, Jay Cutler grew up in a town called Santa Claus, IN; wonder what the high school’s mascot is?

28) Rams— I let this slide Monday because there were so many other things to be annoyed about, but Rams’ only TD against the Panthers came on a 4th-and-goal play from the 10 in last 0:40 when LA trailed 13-3. Going for it on 4th-and-goal from the 10, when you had an easy FG and you needed 10 points, was coaching malpractice.

Just because the play worked doesn’t make it a good decision; in a lot of ways, this ticked me off more than losing the damn game.

8) Broncos— Wade Phillips feels better, may be back on sidelines for this week’s game; if his defense doesn’t create opportunities for the Denver offense, it’ll be a long second half of the season— Broncos’ offense isn’t very good.

7) Giants— One of three teams (Cards, Jags) that haven’t scored a point yet on their first drive of the game. Wentz threw INTs on Eagles’ first two drives, so Giants got TDs on drives of 31-30 yards on their 2nd/3rd drives of the game, but when the coach is also the playcaller, shouldn’t they do better on their first drive?

6) Seahawks— Long trip east to Foxboro on a short week Sunday nite; they play Patriots for first time since their Super Bowl loss to New England. Seahawks’ rushing attempts in last three games: 19-17-12- they need more balance on offense. They also need a more mobile Wilson.

5) Chiefs— Have NFL’s best record (17-3) in their last 20 games, but only one of those wins was a playoff game. Alex Smith is back at QB this week, which should improve their play in red zone.

4) Falcons— 6-3 with bye week in Week 11, so they should be well-rested for stretch run, with little bit of a soft schedule, other than the KC game. Will Kyle Shanahan be a head coach elsewhere in ’17?

3) Raiders— Last time they were in the playoffs was 2002, when they lost Super Bowl to Tampa Bay. They’ll be there this year. First game after their bye is against the Texans on a Monday night in Mexico City.

2) Cowboys— If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it; at 7-1, no reason for Dallas to change QBs; they seem to be set there for the next 10-12 years. Interesting game in Pittsburgh this week, against the banged-up Steelers.

1— Patriots— After playing Seattle this week, their next three games are against 49ers-Jets-Rams; they’ll have to guard against boredom, playing those three stiffs in a row.

I’m not kidding; closest game they’ve had since Brady came back is 11 points- you need to play in close games during season to tighten up for the playoffs, when games will be close.

**Udog** · 11-11-2016, 10:37 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 10

Things are positively rosy in Atlanta, where the Falcons' offense continues to steamroll opponents.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5, 42.5)

Houston's red-zone follies vs. Jaguars' clutch defense

The Texans are the toast of a mediocre AFC South division, entering Week 10 action at 5-3 - but with a 5-0 record at home and an 0-3 mark away from Houston, they'll need to figure things out on the road if they hope to fend off Indianapolis and Tennessee. And that won't happen if the Texans continue to struggle in the red zone, as they have for most of the season. Correcting that might prove tricky this week as Houston visits a Jacksonville defense that has been particularly stingy inside the 20.

With Lamar Miller struggling to be the No. 1 back Houston needs, and quarterback Brock Osweiler showing major growing pains in his first year as a starter, the Texans have turned red-zone visits into touchdowns on a league-worst 38.1 percent of their drives so far this season. That rate dips to an abysmal 33.3 percent in three road games, and is miles below the 56.5-percent red zone success rate the Texans posted en route to last year's division crown.

The Jaguars' defense has been maligned as a disappointment following preseason vows that it would be a vastly improved unit - but it has flexed its muscles in the red zone, limiting opponents to a 48.4-percent touchdown rate. Only four teams have been more effective at limiting red-zone touchdowns, and the Jaguars pitched a shutout last time out, holding Kansas City without a red-zone touchdown despite dropping a 19-14 decision. Don't trust the Houston offense this week.

Daily fantasy fade: RB Lamar Miller

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (PK, 50)

Falcons' outstanding O-line vs. Eagles' right-side D-line deficiencies

Things are positively rosy in Atlanta, where the Falcons' offense continues to steamroll opponents on the strength of the best season of quarterback Matt Ryan's career. But he isn't the only reason why Atlanta is the runaway NFL leader in scoring; the Falcons' offensive line has been one of the team's biggest bright spots, and is in line for more success this weekend against a Philadelphia defensive line that hasn't been nearly as good as advertised.

Anyone who follows the Falcons with regularity knows that center Alex Mack is the engine of the offensive line, evidenced by his ProFootballFocus grade of 86.2 - the third-best mark at his position. RT Ryan Schraeder (82.6), LG Andy Levitre (82.1) and LT Jake Matthews (74.4) have also excelled, giving Ryan clean pockets all season long while opening up big holes for the running back tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman.

They'll match up Sunday afternoon against the host Eagles, who have stars of their own on the defensive end but might struggle to contain the Atlanta rush attack, particularly on the right side. DRE Connor Barwin (49.2) is ranked 77th at the position according to PFF, while DRT Beau Allen (41.3) is 108th. A mismatch that significant is sure to make a difference come Sunday, so look for the Falcons to exploit it all afternoon long.

Daily fantasy watch: RB Devonta Freeman

Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers (-3, 44)

Chiefs' extra possessions vs. Panthers' turnover troubles

Opponents beware: The Chiefs' already impressive defense is starting to gain momentum heading into the second half of the season. And that doesn't even include the pivotal return of LB Justin Houston, who was activated off the PUP list on Wednesday and could be in the lineup this weekend. His presence can only bolster a Kansas City defensive unit that has forced a whole lot of turnovers lately - and is primed to keep that run going against clumsy Carolina.

The Chiefs have fashioned a plus-8 turnover differential over their previous three games - far and away the best total in the league over that span, and a major reason why Kansas City enters Week 10 on a four-game winning streak. It leads the NFL in overall turnover differential per game (plus-1.6), and is no stranger to the rarefied air; the Chiefs led the league with a 0.9 per-game turnover differential in 2015 en route to an impressive 11-5 showing.

The Panthers aren't as bad as they were earlier this season, but they still have to overcome a barrage of turnovers that has them at minus-0.8 per game on the season, the fifth-worst rate in the league entering Week 10. That average inexplicably balloons to minus-1.8 per game at home, tied for the worst in the league. Cam Newton might find himself running for his life Sunday - and if that happens, the Chiefs are a good bet to rack up more turnovers.

Daily fantasy fade: QB Cam Newton

Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots (-7.5, 49.5)

Seahawks' third-down struggles vs. Patriots' drive extension skills

The Seattle defense has been mostly good this season, but it would look even better if it could find a way to limit opponents' third-down conversions. Teams have extended drives against the Seahawks at an alarming rate - and that bodes poorly for the visitors this weekend as they take on the powerhouse Patriots, who look to extend their winning streak to five games. New England does many thing well - and converting third downs is one of them.

Seattle pulled out a 31-25 win over the plucky Buffalo Bills last weekend, but the game probably shouldn't have been so close. The Bills were a stunning 12-for-17 on third downs, its best showing of the season. The Seahawks have allowed teams to turn third downs into first downs on 58.5 percent of their opportunities over the last three weeks, and at a 42.9-percent rate for the season; only six teams - including minnows San Francisco and Cleveland - have been worse.

That generosity could be the Seahawks' undoing this weekend, particularly against a New England team that has been nearly unbeatable at home with Tom Brady under center. The Patriots have converted 57.1 percent of their third downs over the previous three games to improve to 47.2 percent for the season - the fourth-best mark in football. If Seattle gives Brady that much more time, this game could be over by halftime.

Daily fantasy watch: TE Rob Gronkowski

**Udog** · 11-12-2016, 09:27 PM

NFL Underdogs: Week 10 pointspread picks and predictions

The Dallas Cowboys have become the NFL's best bet at 7-1 SU and ATS. How can you pass on the points when the 'Boys take on the Steelers in Week 10?

So the shock is wearing off. The results from this past Tuesday are real and the world is still (currently) rotating.

Donald Trump is President Elect of the United States and since this is an underdog column, it must be noted that Trump pulled off one of the bigger upsets in recent memory when he defeated Hillary Clinton.

Even as polls were closing on Election Night, Trump was as much as a 7/1 underdog, compared to Clinton’s -1,500. But that didn’t matter, as the numbers poured in and the reality that the former reality TV star would be the next President set in.

Now we get to see what “Make America Great Again” is really all about.

Luckily for us, America is already pretty great and we have to look no further than some of the Week 10 NFL matchups as an example.

This week features the classic matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers, and is made even better now that both teams are relevant again. However, unlike the election, it feels like the wrong side is favored heading into this All-American showdown.

The Cowboys are heading into Pittsburgh as 2.5-point road pups, which seems like a reasonable line on the surface. But if you dig into the numbers, that spread looks better and better for our purposes.

First of all, let’s state the obvious. The Cowboys have passed every test since Week 1, going 7-0 SU and ATS in the last seven games to not only sit atop the NFC standings, but also become the NFL’s best bet.

The Cowboys are, of course, led by their dynamic duo of rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot, and match up very well with the Steelers, even on the road.

Elliot and the Cowboys' fantastic offensive line (maybe the best position group in the whole NFL), lead the league in rushing at 165.2 yards per game, but it could be Dak who's the key this week. Prescott is completing 66 percent of his passes for 2,020 yards 12 touchdowns and just two interceptions.

Meanwhile, the Steelers secondary ranks 24th in passing yards against per game, so look for Dallas to try to keep Pittsburgh’s defense off balance with the run game and then attack down field with playaction and roll outs.

Additionally, Ben Roethlisberger didn’t look anywhere near 100 percent in his return to the Steelers lineup, completing just 23 of 45 passes for 264 yards in last week’s loss to Baltimore.

My gut reaction is to just let the streak ride (which I’m sure my boss and diehard Cowboys fan loves to hear), even without looking further into this game. But when you do, Cowboys fans should be cautiously optimistic their red-hot run can continue.

Pick: Cowboys +2.5

Houston Texans (+2.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

When the line opened at pick'em for this AFC South matchup, I hoped the Texans would eventually be faded down to betting underdogs. I just didn’t think the move would be this drastic.

Obviously, the Texans have struggled on the road this season, going 0-3 SU and ATS away from home, but a matchup with the Jaguars could be all Houston needs to change that. Also, it should be noted, Jacksonville is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS at home on the year.

Houston’s third-ranked defense should pose problems for a struggling Jags offense, that has committed eight turnovers during the team's current three-game losing streak. More specifically, Houston ranks second in passing defense and will look to put pressure on Jacksonville quarterback Blake Bortles, who is completing just 59.2 percent of his passes and has 10 interceptions this season.

As inconsistent as Houston’s offense has been (*cough* Brock Osweiler) I can see the Texans putting a stranglehold on the division.

Pick: Houston +2.5

Seattle Seahawks (+7.5) at New England Patriots

This may seem like I’m jumping on the Seahawks bandwagon a little early, but the way Seattle’s offense looked last week has to be encouraging.

Russell Wilson is finally healthy, Jimmy Graham played like the beast he was in New Orleans (plus with no Jamie Collins in New England, who will cover him?), and the defense is as tough as ever.

I know the Patriots are rolling, going 4-0 SU and ATS since the return of the Golden Boy (and potential Trump endorser?) Tom Brady, but this seems like too many points.

Pick: Seahawks +7.5

Last Week: 1-1-1 ATS
Season: 15-11-1 ATS

**Udog** · 11-12-2016, 09:31 PM

Essential Week 10 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

Can Big Ben, Antonio Brown and the Steelers halt the Cowboys' win streak? Pittsburgh is currently 2.5-pt chalk.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5, 42)

* Houston has failed to record 300 total yards of offense in three of its last four games and four of its last six. The ground game has been effective enough with Lamar Miller and Alfred Blue sharing the load, but Brock Osweiler has been inconsistent and has hurt the Texans with nine interceptions. The defense is outstanding against the pass but has had a tough time stopping the run and has recorded just six takeaways – second-fewest in the league.

* Jacksonville is coming off its best offensive output of the year thanks to a season-high 205 rushing yards against the Chiefs. Chris Ivory led the resurgent ground game and could continue to see a greater share of the work than T.J. Yeldon, while quarterback Blake Bortles racked up 54 rushing yards last week but remains inconsistent in the passing game. The Jaguars also turned in their best defensive effort of the year against Kansas City and boast a top-five pass defense, but they haven’t forced a turnover since Week 4 against Indianapolis.

LINE HISTORY: This AFC South battle opened as a pick, early action was on the visiting Texas up as high as 1.5-points, since the line has flipped to -2.5 Saturday morning. The total opened at 42.5 and has dropped to 42. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS

Texans are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC South.
Texans are 4-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
Over is 5-1 in Texans last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Over is 6-1 in Jaguars last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Jacksonville.

Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints (-3, 49)

* While Denver is yielding a league-low 183.3 passing yards per contest, its own aerial attack is not faring well, as Trevor Siemian is completing only 59.8 percent of his attempts and has thrown for just 10 touchdowns, tying him for 16th in the league, with five interceptions. He has performed well on the road, however, recording eight TDs while being picked off only once in four contests. Devontae Booker has rushed for a touchdown in two of his last three games and ranks third among NFL rookies with 320 yards on the ground.

* Brees continues to etch his name in the record book after recording his 55th career game with at least 300 passing yards and three touchdowns - the most in history - and became the first player to register 30 performances of 300 yards, three TDs and no interceptions. The 37-year-old is one scoring pass away from joining Peyton Manning (539) and Brett Favre (508) as the only quarterbacks to throw for 450 in their careers. Mark Ingram is coming off a 158-yard rushing effort that included a career-best 75-yard touchdown run, which also was the second-longest in franchise history.

LINE HISTORY: New Orleans opened as 1.5-point home favorites and the line has been bet up to 3. The total opened at 48 and has risen one full point to 49.
Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS

Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Broncos are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 6-1 in Broncos last 7 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Saints last 4 games in Week 10.
Over is 8-1-1 in Saints last 10 home games.

Los Angeles Rams at N.Y. Jets (-1, 40)

* Keenum has two touchdowns against five interceptions in his last two games and coach Jeff Fisher said it was time to give running back Todd Gurley more touches. What has he been waiting for? Gurley, who has carried the ball just five times combined in the fourth quarter of his last three games, emerged as one of the game's rising stars last season by rushing for 1,106 yards and 10 touchdowns on the way to Rookie of the Year honors, but he may find things rough facing New York's fifth-ranked rushing defense. Led by Aaron Donald, who sacked Cam Newton twice last week, the Rams are allowing 20.9 points a game and got back the services of top cornerback Trumaine Johnson last week, who is sure to shadow Jets wideout Brandon Marshall

* Bowles benched star defenders Mo Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson for the first quarter of last week's loss at Miami due to team violations and continued the upheaval this week, waiving defensive lineman Jarvis Jenkins and placing left tackle Ryan Clady (shoulder) on injured reserve on Wednesday. The turmoil seems to be a sign that Bowles' days may be numbered. “I haven’t done a good job,” he said. “We’re 3-6. It speaks for itself. I’ve got to do a lot better job coaching.” After a brutal schedule left them 1-5 to start the season, the Jets responded with a two-game winning streak, but their three wins have come against teams with a combined eight wins and last week's disappointing 27-23 loss to the Dolphins appears to be the end of their playoff hopes.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened with the Jets as 2.5-point home favorites and has been getting bet down all week to 1. The total opened 41 and was quickly dropped to 40, where it has remained all week. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS

Rams are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Under is 8-0 in Rams last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Under is 8-1 in Rams last 9 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 3-0-1 in Jets last 4 home games.
Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (1, 50)

* Ryan's success routinely hinges on the electric Julio Jones (NFL-best 970 yards), and the stud wide receiver hasn't been shy about giving Philadelphia fits in his career - highlighted by a nine-catch, 141-yard, two-touchdown performance in last season's opener. The 27-year-old Jones also found the end zone versus the Buccaneers on a 3-yard fade and faces an Eagles' secondary that yielded four touchdowns to the Giants' wideouts. While Jones has excelled, running back Devonta Freeman was limited to just 112 yards rushing during the two-game absence of Tevin Coleman (hamstring), who expects to be back on Sunday.

* Although Ryan Mathews has scored in back-to-back contests, fellow running back Darren Sproles has assumed the lead role in the backfield. "By stats and by what you're seeing, I would say that Darren is the No. 1 back right now," coach Doug Pederson said of the 5-foot-6 Sproles. "Obviously we haven't hung our hat on one guy, but we tend to lean more toward Darren Sproles. It's hard to take him off the field right now." The 33-year-old Sproles, who is averaging nearly five yards a carry and 10 yards per catch in eight games, rolled up 126 scrimmage yards (76 receiving, 50 rushing) in the last encounter with Atlanta.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened with Eagles a 1-point home favorite and bettors jumped all over the road team bumping that line as high as Falcons +2, before it settled at 1. The total opened at 49.5 and rose as high as 50.5 before settling at 50. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS

Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Falcons are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Over is 6-0 in Falcons last 6 vs. NFC.
Over is 11-1 in Eagles last 12 vs. NFC.

Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers (-3, 44)

* Kansas City’s offense doesn’t put up flashy numbers, but Smith takes care of the ball and Ware has been a workhorse when healthy. Getting Houston back in the mix would add another pass-rushing element to a stout defense that already includes linebacker Dee Ford, who is tied for third in the league with nine sacks – eight of which have come in the last five games. The Chiefs’ biggest weakness is stopping the run, which could be an issue against a strong Carolina ground attack.

* Carolina’s offense sputtered to a season-low 244 total yards against the Rams, but the Panthers did not commit a turnover for the first time this season. The running game hasn’t been as effective as last season, but quarterback Cam Newton and running back Jonathan Stewart still form a formidable duo for any defense to stop. The Panthers have stifled the run but struggled against the pass despite leading the NFC with 24 sacks.

LINE HISTORY: The Panthers opened as 3-point home favorites and the total at 44. Bettors appear to be happy with both numbers as neither has moved as of Saturday. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS

Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Panthers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Under is 5-0 in Chiefs last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 11-2 in Panthers last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.
Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2.5, 45.5)

* The best news from Chicago coming out of the bye week was on the injury report, where nose tackle Eddie Goldman (ankle), guards Kyle Long (triceps) and Josh Sitton (ankle) and wide receiver Eddie Royal (toe) all were listed as limited but participated in practice. The returns of Long and Sitton should help an offensive line that dominated the Vikings and gave Jordan Howard enough room to run for 153 yards. Royal's return would open the outside for Cutler, who spent more time cutting up the middle of the field with tight end Zach Miller and running backs Howard and Jeremy Langford in his return than he did throwing wide to Alshon Jeffery (four catches, 63 yards).

* Tampa Bay is allowing an average of 29 points - 29th in the NFL - and 398.9 yards (28th), and was carved up for 344 yards and four TDs by Matt Ryan in a 43-28 home loss to Atlanta last week. Winston threw three scoring passes without an interception in the setback and finished the game on the bench after suffering a knee injury but insists he is physically ready to go this week. Winston could get some help in the running game this week from Doug Martin (hamstring), who returned to practice for the first time since Week 2 and is questionable.

LINE HISTORY: The Bears opened as 1-point road favorites coming off the bye week and has been rising to 2.5. The total opened at 45.5 and has remained there all week. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS

Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November.
Buccaneers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Over is 10-2 in Bears last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Over is 4-1 in Buccaneers last 5 home games.
Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans (3, 49.5)

* Green Bay has been forced to use wide receiver Ty Montgomery in the backfield since Eddie Lacy suffered a season-ending injury in Week 6, but running back James Starks practiced on a limited basis Thursday and could rejoin the lineup for the first time since Week 5. The Packers also could get another weapon back on offense as tight end Jared Cook, sidelined since Week 3, also practiced Thursday. Wideout Jordy Nelson admitted his surgically repaired knee is not 100 percent, but he has seven touchdowns on the season. Linebacker Clay Matthews (hamstring) missed practice Thursday and could sit out his third straight game.

* Tennessee features the league's second-leading rusher in DeMarco Murray, who has an AFC-best 807 yards but was limited in practice Thursday. With backup Derrick Henry unable to practice due to a calf injury, the Titans need Murray as they pit their third-ranked running attack against a Green Bay defense that is allowing a league-low 75.8 yards on the ground. Quarterback Marcus Mariota, accounted for four touchdowns and threw for a season-high 313 yards at San Diego, has connected on five scoring passes to Rishard Matthews in the last five games. Tennessee is the only team in the league that has yet to force a fumble.

LINE HISTORY: The Packers opened as 2.5-point road favorites and they have been bet up slightly to the current number of 3. The total opened as 48.5 and has been bet up to 49.5 as of Saturday morning. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS

Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Over is 6-0 in Titans last 6 games overall.
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins (-2.5, 42)

* Quarterback Sam Bradford has nine touchdowns against only one interception, but he has been limited to one scoring pass in five of his seven starts and doesn't have the luxury of leaning on the running game without Adrian Peterson. Bradford went to the air 40 times in last week's 22-16 overtime loss against visiting Detroit while Minnesota managed 78 yards rushing on 25 attempts. Stefon Diggs had a season-high 13 catches last week while Cordarrelle Patterson is averaging five receptions over the last five games. Nose tackle Linval Joseph and cornerbacks Captain Munnerlyn and Marcus Sherels did not practice Wednesday or Thursday.

* Cousins threw for two scores and a season-high 458 yards in the draw with Cincinnati, but he will face the league's top-ranked scoring defense without his Pro Bowl left tackle. Trent Williams will serve the first of his four-game suspension for violating the league's substance abuse policy. Rookie Robert Kelley rushed for 87 yards against the Bengals in his first career start and will get the nod against Minnesota's rugged defense. Deep threat DeSean Jackson missed practice against Thursday, but tight end Jordan Reed and Jamison Crowder each had nine receptions and a touchdown in London.

LINE HISTORY: The Redskins opened the week as 2.5-point home favorites and were bet up slightly to 3 midweek, before the number faded back to 2.5 Saturday morning. The total opened at 42.5 and dropped a half point to the current number of 42. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS

Vikings are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.
Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Under is 13-3 in Vikings last 16 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 5-0 in Redskins last 5 games following a bye week.
Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers (-4.5, 48)

* With Ajayi's workload at an all-time high, quarterback Ryan Tannehill is averaging 201.7 yards per contest during Miami's three-game winning streak -- with just 149 coming against the Jets. "Whatever it takes," Tannehill said. "Obviously, (149 yards) was plenty last week. If we need 300 this week, then that's what we need. It's just a matter of game by game (doing) whatever it takes to move the chains and put points on the board." Jarvis Landry, who has a team-leading 49 receptions, sat out Thursday's practice with a shoulder injury and Kenny Stills did the same with an ailing calf, but both wideouts are expected to play on Sunday.

* Buoyed by Gordon's presence in the backfield, Philip Rivers continued his strong season by throwing for two touchdowns and a 117.6 rating last week. The veteran Rivers had an easy time of it in his last meeting with Miami, amassing 311 passing yards and three scores in a 30-14 victory on Dec. 20. Trusted target Antonio Gates has reeled in a touchdown pass in consecutive outings, increasing his total to a team-high four and career tally to 108. Tyrell Williams also had a touchdown reception last week and leads the club with 595 yards receiving.

LINE HISTORY: The Chargers opened as 3.5-home favorites and have been bet up a full point to 4.5. The total opened up at 47.5 and was quickly bet up to 48.5 before fading late in the week to the current number 48. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS

Chargers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC.
Under is 13-3 in Dolphins last 16 games in Week 10.
Over is 7-1 in Chargers last 8 games on grass.
Under is 12-0 in the last 12 meetings.
Home team is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-14, 48)

* Kaepernick showed signs of his former self last week, passing for 398 yards and two touchdowns in a losing effort. He also ran for 23 yards, raising his career total of 2,005 to join Steve Young as the only quarterbacks in franchise history to reach the 2,000-yard plateau. Vance McDonald has registered two touchdowns of at least 65 yards this year, making him the fourth NFL tight end since 1970 and first since Shannon Sharpe in 1997 to do so in the one season.

* The injury bug continues to bite Arizona as it lost tackle Jared Veldheer to a torn biceps tendon and safety Tyrann Mathieu to a shoulder subluxation in its loss to Carolina in Week 8. The Cardinals, who hope to have Mathieu back in a week or two, also have 10 players on season-ending injured reserve. Johnson leads the NFC with eight rushing touchdowns and ranks first in the entire league with 1,112 yards from scrimmage, including a franchise-record streak of eight straight games with at least 100.

LINE HISTORY: The Cards opened as massive 13-point home favorites and has been steadily rising to 14. The total opened at 49 and dropped to 48 that day and has remained at that number all week. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS

Over is 15-3 in 49ers last 18 games following a bye week.
Over is 8-2 in 49ers last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Under is 10-1 in Cardinals last 11 home games.
Over is 7-1 in Cardinals last 8 games in Week 10.
Over is 7-0 in 49ers last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5, 49.5)

* Slot receiver Cole Beasley leads the team in catches (43) and receiving yards (499) and touchdowns, with his club-best fourth score in the last four games coming on Sunday. Fellow wideout Dez Bryant has caught 16 of 41 passes thrown his way, with only one for 19 yards against the battered Browns' secondary last week. "We're chasing something. It's not a one-man show,” Bryant said of Dallas' winning ways. Veteran tight end Jason Witten was the target of choice last week for Prescott, reeling in eight receptions for 134 yards and a touchdown.

* Pittsburgh's potent offense was asleep through three quarters last week as it mustered just 69 yards before Roethlisberger woke up and tossed a touchdown pass to Antonio Brown and rushed for another. While electric Le'Veon Bell is a trusted option out of the backfield, Pittsburgh has struggled to find a consistency in the passing game - outside of Brown - with Martavis Bryant suspended for the season. Sammie Coates has followed a strong start with just four yards in his last three games and fellow wideouts Markus Wheaton (shoulder) and Darrius Heyward-Bey (foot) are nursing injuries. Eli Rogers recorded a team-leading 103 receiving yards - all in the fourth quarter - to show promise after his development had been slowed by both turf toe and a reported disciplinary decision in Week 7 (he was inactive).

LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened as 2.5-point favorites and has remained there all week. The total opened at 51 and has been bet down a point and a half to the current number of 49.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS

Cowboys are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.
Under is 8-1 in Cowboys last 9 road games.
Under is 5-1 in Steelers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-0 in Steelers last 4 games in Week 10.

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NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 10 (Thursday, November 10 - Monday, November 12)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 10 (Thursday, November 10 - Monday, November 12)

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