NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 10 (Tuesday, November 1 - Saturday, November 4)

[Udog]

College football four-point stance: Week 10 pointspread picks and prediction

After 10 legendary encounters that included one showdown on the National Championship stage in 2012, the Les Miles-Nick Saban SEC West rivalry officially reached its conclusion in September when Miles was relieved of his head coaching duties at Louisiana State just after the commencement of his 11th year on the job.

Nine years of high-profile battles with Alabama’s master tactician has a way of doing that to a man.

Urban Meyer fled the University of Florida in 2010 for a brief hiatus before accepting an easier conference schedule at Ohio State. Steve Spurrier waved the white flag midway through the 2015 campaign at South Carolina and headed for the golf course. Butch Jones is head coach No. 4 at the University of Tennessee since Saban’s arrival in Tuscaloosa, Mark Richt was run out of Georgia and later signed on with Miami, Bobby Petrino couldn’t keep his composure at Arkansas, Auburn fired Gene Chizik two years after winning the national championship, and on and on we go.

This Saturday in Baton Rouge, the post-Miles era of the LSU-Alabama rivalry begins with interim head coach Ed Orgeron looking to cement his place as the Tigers’ new frontman. Orgeron has quietly righted the ship in Baton Rouge by guiding the new-look Tigers to a 3-0 SU and ATS record since taking charge. But a primetime date with Alabama is a different beast entirely when compared to matchups against Missouri, Southern Mississippi and Ole Miss.

Especially when you consider the fact that Saban has been on the warpath as of late, with convincing wins and covers at Arkansas (49-30, -14.5), at Tennessee (49-10, -14) and against previously unbeaten Texas A&M (33-14, -18) over his last three outings.

Bottom line? The Tide are 8-2 ATS over their last 10 road dates and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 trips to Baton Rouge.

Lay the lumber.

Pick: Alabama -7.5


TCU Horned Frogs at Baylor Bears

When: Saturday, November 5 at 3:30 p.m. ET
Spread: Baylor -8.5

Despite its recent ascension to the rank of “Most Deplorable Program in the Country,” Baylor’s roster and new head coach found a way to turn down the noise and race out to an impressive 6-0 start.

That was before the team’s championship dreams came crashing down last Saturday against a mediocre Texas program that will likely fire head coach Charlie Strong by the end of the year. Now, Baylor must pick up the pieces in a very troubling look-ahead situation, as a daunting trip to Norman against the Oklahoma Sooners resides in the on-deck circle.

At 4-4, Gary Patterson’s TCU squad is no prized pig at this year’s state fair, but the Horned Frogs have a habit of making life miserable for Baylor. Texas Christian is 8-1 ATS over its last nine showdowns against the Bears. In addition, Patterson himself is a bankable 16-4 ATS over his last 20 games as an underdog of seven or more points.

While TCU has covered the number in four of its last five trips to Waco, take note that Baylor is an abysmal 4-10 ATS over its last 14 games overall and 3-7 ATS over its last 10 Big 12 matchups. Expect a good deal of scoring in this one, with TCU eventually finding a way to notch a cover for the fifth straight year against Baylor.

Pick: TCU +8.5


Florida State Seminoles at North Carolina State Wolfpack

When: Saturday, November 5 at 7:00 p.m. ET
Spread: Florida State -5.5

Let’s begin with the fact that we have a reverse line movement situation in regards to this matchup. As of Thursday night, 75 percent of the wagers placed on this game favored Florida State, yet the pointspread has been adjusted from Seminoles -8 to Seminoles -5.5. This information tells us that while the ticket count favors Florida State, the big money is backing the Wolfpack… and for good reason.

This is a classic flat spot situation for Jimbo Fisher’s Seminoles, as FSU suffered their third defeat of the season last Saturday night in the form of a gut-wrenching 37-34 home loss to No. 2 Clemson. With all hope for a major bowl bid now dashed, there’s a real good chance we’ll see a lackadaisical effort on behalf of the Noles come Saturday afternoon.

Additionally, take note that North Carolina State is 4-1 ATS over its last five home games and an ultra-impressive 12-3-1 ATS over its last 16 showdowns with Florida State. Not only that, but FSU is a lousy 0-6-1 ATS over its last seven trips to Raleigh, so don’t be surprised if the Wolfpack find a way to win this game outright.

Pick: North Carolina State +5.5


Utah State Aggies at Wyoming Cowboys

When: Saturday, November 5 at 10:15 p.m. ET
Spread: Wyoming -4.5

Many will argue that Wyoming’s 30-28 upset win over Boise State last Saturday night as 14.5-point underdogs indicates that the Cowboys are headed for a major letdown due to a prolonged celebration and lack of focus attributable to what some refer to as the “Hangover Effect.”

Those naysayers, however, are making a critical error in underestimating Wyoming boss Craig Bohl, who is without question one of the top head coaches in the country.

After a 2-2 start to the season, Wyoming has ripped off four straight victories (and four straight pointspread covers) by an average of 10 points per game. But what’s really impressive is that the Cowboys have been underdogs in three of those four matchups. Based on the four closing lines in those aforementioned games, Wyoming is a ridiculous +66.0 against the spread since October 1.

As for Utah State, the Aggies are headed in the opposite direction from Wyoming, having dropped four of their last five games both SU and ATS. Utah State, on the other hand, is 1-5 ATS over its last six road dates and 1-7 ATS over its last eight conference showdowns.

But this game is all about exacting revenge for Wyoming, which has been soundly whipped by the Aggies in each of the past three seasons by an average of 25.3 points per game. Now that the Cowboys are on the rise, it’s time for a little payback.

Pick: Wyoming -4.5

Last week: 3-1 ATS
Season: 21-15 ATS

[Udog]

Saturday’s NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet and odds: Week 10

Both No. 6 Ohio State and No. 10 Nebraska need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive when they meet Saturday at the Horseshoe.

No. 5 Louisville at Boston College (+25, 55.5)

* Lamar Jackson, who has accounted for an FBS-high 38 touchdowns, is four yards away from becoming the first quarterback in school history to run for 1,000 in a season and still leads the nation with 16 rushing scores despite getting held out of the end zone against the Cavaliers. Jamari Staples (29 catches for a team-high 546 yards), James Quick (32 for 523) and Cole Hikutini (33 for 482) each rank inside the top 13 in the conference in receiving yards and have taken turns leading the team in that category in every game this season. Sophomore cornerback Jaire Alexander, who picked off two passes for the second time in four games, was named ACC Defensive Back of the Week and ranks second in the nation with five interceptions.

* The Eagles got unusual contributions from several players versus the Wolfpack, as leading receiver Jeff Smith rushed 60 yards for their first score and running back Davon Jones threw a short scoring pass to tight end Tommy Sweeney for the go-ahead TD with 4:43 remaining. Starting quarterback Patrick Towles (204 passing yards) and top rusher Jon Hilliman (20 carries for 74 yards) each returned from injury and recorded their second and third-best efforts of the season, respectively. Harold Landry continued to wreak havoc on opposing offenses with a sack and forced fumble to earn ACC co-Defensive Lineman of the Week honors; the junior defensive end is tied for national lead in sacks (nine) and forced fumbles (five).

LINE HISTORY: Louisville opened as 25-point road favorites and as of Friday morning that number hasn’t moved. The total opened at 55 and has gone up as high as 57 and since came back to 55.5. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.
* Cardinals are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Over is 7-0 in Cardinals last 7 games in November.
* Over is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Vanderbilt at No. 12 Auburn (-26.5, 45)

* Junior Ralph Webb is second in the SEC with 855 rushing yards - Auburn sophomore Kamryn Pettway has 933 - and needs 230 to break the school career record of 3,143 set by Zac Stacy (2009-12). Linebacker Zach Cunningham leads the SEC with 85 tackles and is second with 13.5 for losses, which remarkably do not include a sack. Vanderbilt boasts a special-teams threat in senior Darrius Sims, who is third in nation at 32.1 yards per kickoff return and needs 17 to break the school record of 2,263 set by Mark Johnson (1986-90).

* The Tigers are the only team in the nation to average better than 300 yards rushing and 200 passing, with Kerryon Johnson (580 yards, eight touchdowns) a heavy contributor. Pettway (seven TDs) rushed for a career-high 236 yards and a score in last week's 40-29 victory at Ole Miss and has averaged 199 yards with six TDs in his last three games. Lineman Carl Lawson is third in the SEC and tied for 14th nationally with 7.5 sacks.

LINE HISTORY: Auburn opened as 24.5-point road favorites and as of Thursday night that point spread has risen to 26.5. The total opened at 45 and remains at that number on Thursday evening. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
* Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
* Under is 5-1-1 in Commodores last 7 games following a straight up win.
* Under is 9-2-1 in Commodores last 12 road games.

No. 7 Texas A&M at Mississippi State (13.5, 61.5)

* The Aggies lead the nation in tackles for loss with 77 and are tied for 10th in sacks (3.25 per game) behind a defense led by ends Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall. The two combine for 7.5 sacks, and their consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks helps the Texas A&M defense lead the SEC with 19 takeaways. Sophomore wide receiver Christian Kirk hauled in a TD reception for the third straight game last week and gave the special teams a big boost by running a pair of punts back for touchdowns to push his school-record total to four punt return TDs.

* The Bulldogs won their SEC opener the second week of the season against South Carolina but dropped four of the next five before Nick Fitzgerald worked his way into the record books in a win over Samford last week. Fitzgerald passed for 417 yards and five touchdowns and rushed for 119 yards and two scores to join Archie Manning and Johnny Manziel as the only quarterbacks in SEC history to record at least 400 yards through the air and 100 on the ground in the same game. Fitzgerald tying the school record for single-game TDs helped overshadow another struggle for the defense, which surrendered 627 yards to a FCS team.

LINE HISTORY: Texas A&M opened as 13.5-point faves and that number is fine with the betting public and has held all week. The total opened at 60.5 and went up a full point to 61.5. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Aggies are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Under is 8-0 in Aggies last 8 road games.
* Under is 20-5-1 in Bulldogs last 26 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.

No. 8 Wisconsin at Northwestern (7, 41)

* With leading rusher Corey Clement bottled up for most of the day (exactly half of his 82 yards rushing on 19 carries came on one late rush), Dare Ogunbowale erupted for a season-high 120 yards, including the eventual game-winning touchdown in overtime. Ryan Connelly started in place of injured leading tackler Jack Cichy at inside linebacker and earned Big Ten co-Defensive Player of the Week honors after recording a career-high 11 tackles (two for loss) and two pass breakups. Wisconsin is one of four FBS teams to boast a pair of players with at least 10 pass breakups (Derrick Tindal has 12 and Sojourn Shelton has 10), helping the Badgers post the best touchdown-to-interception ratio in the country (0.4) and tie LSU for fewest TD passes allowed (four).

* Clayton Thorson ranks third in the league in passing yards (1,942), yards per game (242.8) and touchdowns (15) - the last of which is the most ever by a sophomore quarterback in school history. Favorite target Austin Carr was held out of the end zone for the first time in seven games versus Ohio State, but the senior receiver collected a career-high 158 yards on eight catches and still leads the conference in receptions (58), receiving yards (878), receiving yards per game (109.8) and touchdowns (9). Defensive end Ifeadi Odenigbo did not record a sack for the first time in four games, but he remains the Big Ten leader with eight and needs 6.5 more before the end of the season to tie the school record.

LINE HISTORY: Wisconsin opened as 5.5-point faves and throughout the week that line continued to rise and on Friday morning was 7. The total opened at 41, quickly dropped to 40.5, then rose to 42, before settling at 41 as of Friday morning. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Badgers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games
* Badgers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
* Under is 6-1 in Badgers last 7 games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 4-1 in Badgers last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.

Georgia Tech at No. 17 North Carolina (-10.5, 61.5)

* The Yellow Jackets begin a difficult month in which they will play three of four games on the road, including back-to-back away matchups against ranked teams (North Carolina on Saturday; No. 21 Virginia Tech on Nov. 12). Thomas’ big day, the third-highest single-game yardage total in school history, helped Georgia Tech pile up 605 yards of total offense against Duke. The Yellow Jackets have struggled defensively of late, allowing 35 or more points in three of their past four games.

* The Tar Heels surrendered 31.5 points per game during their first six contests but have improved of late, limiting Virginia to 93 total yards in the second half of a 35-14 victory on Oct. 22. Trubisky passed for 310 yards and three touchdowns against the Cavaliers, and has three of the top 11 single-game passing performances in school history this season. Running back Elijah Hood averages five yards per carry and rushed for 107 yards and a touchdown against Virginia.

LINE HISTORY: The Tar Heels opened as 11-point home favorites and by Thursday evening has dropped to 10.5. The total opened at 58 and jumped as high as 62, before ending up at 61.5 by the end of the week. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Tar Heels are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
* Tar Heels are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
* Over is 4-0 in Yellow Jackets last 4 games overall.
* Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

Syracuse at No. 2 Clemson (-26.5, 66.5)

* The Orange boast one of the nation’s most improved offenses, averaging 487 total yards behind the prolific passing duo of quarterback Eric Dungey and receiver Amba Etta-Tawo. Syracuse averages 45 pass attempts per game, with Dungey completing 65 percent of his passes for an average of 329 yards per game and Etta-Tawo ranking third nationally with 134 receiving yards per contest. The defense has improved recently, allowing 18.5 points per game over the past two contests after giving up an average of 36 in the first six games of the season..

* The Tigers have been somewhat inconsistent in their ability to run the ball, though Wayne Gallman put up 82 yards and two touchdowns in a solid effort at Florida State. Gallman, Watson and Co. should be able to exploit a Syracuse defense that gives up 450.8 yards per game and hasn’t had much success stopping the run or the pass. Clemson’s defense will have its work cut out against the Orange’s up-tempo offense but has been up to the task all season, ranking in the top 15 nationally in total defense and scoring defense.

LINE HISTORY: Clemson opened the week as monster 26 point home favorites and as of Thursday night that spread was up to 26.5. The total opened at 61.5 and exploded to 68 by Friday morning. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Orange are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
* Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
* Under is 4-0 in Orange last 4 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
* Under is 4-0 in Orange last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.

No. 21 Virginia Tech at Duke (11.5, 53)

* Evans sprained his ankle in the win over Pittsburgh but has been able to practice fully as he looks to follow up a performance in which he compiled 439 total yards, the most ever for a Hokies quarterback in ACC play. Junior wide receiver Cam Phillips was the team's leading rusher with 43 yards and also hauled in six catches for a career-high 109 yards. Travon McMillian, who was held to minus-3 yards on six carries last week, had a career-high 142 in last year's 45-43 quadruple-overtime loss to the Blue Devils.

* Duncan's injury is the latest blow for a team that also lost quarterback Thomas Sirk to the same injury and top cornerback DeVon Edwards to torn ligaments in his left knee. Junior Shaun Wilson, who had 109 yards on 10 carries versus the Yellow Jackets, is next up in the rushing department, while quarterback Daniel Jones ranks third with 276 yards on 82 carries. Jones became the first Duke freshman with three 300-yard passing games when he had 305 last week.

LINE HISTORY: The Hokies began the betting week at 11.5-point road favorites and by the time this cheat sheet was put together that number was down to 10.5-point faves. The total hit the board at 52.5 and has risen to 53. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Hokies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
* Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
* Under is 4-0 in Hokies last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Under is 4-0 in Blue Devils last 4 home games.
* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Texas Christian at No. 13 Baylor (7.5, 68.5)

* Starting quarterback Kenny Hill was pulled in favor of sophomore Foster Sawyer during last Saturday's 27-24 double-overtime loss to Texas Tech -- the Horned Frogs' third setback in four games -- after throwing his 10th interception of the season but the Texas A&M transfer is still expected to start this week. Running back Kyle Hicks, who injured his left ankle in the loss to Texas Tech and leads the team with 597 rushing yards and is tied for the team lead with 31 catches, was listed as probable by head coach Gary Patterson. The Horned Frogs are tied with Texas for the Big 12 lead in sacks (31) with end Mat Boesen (6) leading the way while junior linebacker Travis Howard leads the conference in tackles (88).

* Quarterback Seth Russell, who missed the last six games of the 2015 season with a neck injury and took numerous hard hits from the Texas defense, is expected to start but will continue to be monitored for potential concussion-like symptoms throughout the week after feeling nauseous and groggy about 90 minutes after the loss. Russell has thrown 52 touchdown passes and only 11 interceptions while compiling a 14-1 record in 15 career starts with junior wide receiver KD Cannon, who ranks fourth in the Big 12 in both receptions (5.8) and receiving yards (88.5) his No. 1 target. Baylor's defense, which is second in the Big 12 in takeaways (16) and first in passing yards allowed (179.4), is led by returning all-Big 12 linebacker Taylor Young (53 tackles, 4 sacks, 8.5 tackles for loss) and junior defensive back Travon Blanchard, a Jim Thorpe Award semifinalist who has 34 tackles and four pass breakups.

LINE HISTORY: Baylor opened as 10-point faves and throughout the week that line was dropped like a rock before settling at 7.5. The total opened at 69 and the line went down to 68.5. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Horned Frogs are 13-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Bears are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
* Under is 4-0 in Horned Frogs last 4 road games.
* Horned Frogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
* Underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

No. 9 Florida at Arkansas (3.5, 47)

* The Gators gave up 38 points in their lone loss to Tennessee and 44 combined during six victories, standing second in the nation in total defense (239.9 yards). Sophomore quarterback Luke Del Rio threw for 131 yards in the 24-10 victory over Georgia last week and has three receivers with at least 25 catches, but junior tight end DeAndre Goolsby (hand) is questionable. Sophomore Jordan Scarlett rushed for 194 yards combined the last two games and the Gators get fellow running back Mark Thompson back after a one-game suspension.

* Allen is third in the SEC in passing yards per game (256) and boasts 18 touchdown passes as opposed to seven interceptions with a trio of talented veteran receivers as weapons. Seniors Drew Morgan (41 catches, 420 yards, two TDs) and Keon Hatcher (28, 435, five), along with junior Jared Cornelius (24, 465, four), are all dangerous through the air. Sophomore Rawleigh Williams III has also had a big year on the ground, totaling 807 yards and five touchdowns, but will have to rebound after registering a season-low 22 yards against Auburn.

LINE HISTORY: The Gators opened as 5.5-points favorites and as of Thursday night it had dropped 2 full points. The total opened at 47 and remains at that number on Thursday. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Gators are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Razorbacks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Under is 4-1 in Razorbacks last 5 home games.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

No. 22 Oklahoma State at Kansas State (-3, 57)

* Junior quarterback Mason Rudolph has stepped things up over the last month, throwing for 1,273 yards and 11 touchdowns without an interception, including a 273-yard, three-TD outing against the Mountaineers. Wideouts James Washington (43 receptions-857 yards-six TDs) and Jalen McCleskey (49-602-5) are Rudolph’s top targets, but the ground game has struggled to find consistent traction behind leading rusher Justice Hill (128 carries-619 yards-four scores). Defensively, the Cowboys are allowing 26.5 points and 445.2 total yards per game, and their strength is a formidable defensive line, led by defensive tackle Vincent Taylor (4.5 sacks, 6.5 tackles for loss), that has accounted for 18.5 of the team’s 22 sacks.

* Quarterback Jesse Ertz only has thrown for 1,078 yards and seven touchdowns this season but has emerged as a dangerous running threat, capped by last week’s career-high 106 yards on nine carries against Iowa State. Senior tailback Charles Jones ranks second to Ertz on the team with 439 yards and two TDs on 88 attempts, but Snyder will ride the “hot hand” in games, and against Iowa State, sophomores Justin Silmon (9-54-1) and freshman Alex Barnes (5-37-1) stepped forward to complement Ertz. On the other side of the ball, linebacker Elijah Lee (8.6 tackles per game) and defensive end Jordan Willis (Big 12-most eight sacks) anchor a defense which has been the best in the conference against the run (102.9 yards per game) and is allowing only 21.6 points and 363.5 yards per game.

LINE HISTORY: The Cowboys opened the betting week as 1.5-point road favorites and the public decided that wasn’t enough - betting the line up to 3-point faves. The total hit the board at 58.5 and had been bet down to 56. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Cowboys are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
* Over is 9-2 in Cowboys last 11 conference games.
* Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

Maryland at No. 2 Michigan (-31, 54)

* Ty Johnson racked up 142 yards on 13 carries in the loss to Indiana for his second straight 100-yard game and can become the first running back since Lance Ball in 2005 to reach the century mark in three consecutive contests. Running back Lorenzo Harrison has been a revelation in the backfield for the Terrapins and needs 115 yards to break LaMont Jordan's freshman record (689) set in 1997. Sophomore wide receiver D.J. Moore caught five passes for 81 yards and a touchdown against the Hoosiers - his third straight game with a score - to extend his streak of games with at least one reception to 16.

* Kenny Allen was named the Big Ten's Special Teams Player of the Week after kicking field goals of 23, 23 and a season-long 45 yards in the win over Michigan State. Heisman Trophy candidate Jabrill Peppers, who registered a rushing touchdown, seven tackles and a sack against the Spartans, has been named a semifinalist for the Maxwell Award, which is given to the most outstanding player in college football. Nose tackle Bryan Mone limped off with an apparent leg injury but Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh expects him to play on Saturday but Harbaugh was mum when asked about slot receiver Grant Perry, who has missed the last three games for undisclosed reasons.

LINE HISTORY: Michigan opened as 30.5-point home favorites and inched up a half point to 31. The total opened at 54 and has yet to move. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Terrapins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
* Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
* Over is 5-0 in Wolverines last 5 games in November.
* Over is 7-0 in Wolverines last 7 games following a ATS loss.

Arizona at No. 25 Washington State (-17, 65.5)

* With running back Nick Wilson out for several more games, the Wildcats have turned to converted receiver Samajie Grant, who finished with 64 yards on 19 carries in last week’s loss to Stanford. Grant could receive a heavier workload Saturday after Dawkins and Solomon each struggled to establish a rhythm at quarterback last week. Safety Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles has a team-high 51 tackles while linebackers Paul Magloire Jr., Michael Barton and Jake Matthews combined for 2.5 sacks against Stanford, but Barton could miss this Saturday’s contest with a knee injury.

* The Cougars’ surge has featured a surprisingly balanced offense highlighted by receivers Gabe Marks and River Cracraft along with Falk, who has thrown 16 touchdown passes and three interceptions during the team’s six-game winning streak. Running backs Jamal Morrow, Gerard Wicks and James Williams have scored 23 total touchdowns and averaged 198 all-purpose yards per game. Linebacker Peyton Pelluer has a team-high 49 tackles to lead the defense, which is aiming for a more complete effort after Oregon State’s Ryan Nall rushed for 131 yards and scored three times last week.

LINE HISTORY: Washington State opened the week as 15.5-point home favorites and by Thursday number was up to 17. The total hit the board at 66 and has dropped by a half point to 65.5. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
* Cougars are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
* Under is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Under is 4-0 in Cougars last 4 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

No. 19 Florida State at North Carolina State (5.5, 58)

* Junior running back Dalvin Cook hopes to extend his streak of 100-yard rushing games to six and boasts 1,069 overall with 11 touchdowns on the ground. Freshman quarterback Deondre Francois has had a productive year (2,162 yards passing, 11 TD passes, 60.5 completion percentage), but has been sacked 25 times – six last week. Senior receiver Jesus Wilson (foot) is questionable after missing last Saturday’s game and safety Trey Marshall must sit out the first half against N.C. State due to a targeting call last week.

* Sophomore quarterback Ryan Finley threw for a career-high 307 yards last week, but had two interceptions for the third consecutive game. Junior tight end Jaylen Samuels (seven total touchdowns) is the top threat through the air with 34 catches for 325 yards, but was held to one reception last week, and sophomore Stephen Louis has hauled in 21 for 422 yards. Senior Matthew Dayes, who leads the ground attack with 727 yards and four scores, was held to 58 combined by Louisville and Boston College the last two contests.

LINE HISTORY: The Seminoles opened as 7.5-point road favorites and throughout the week that spread was reduced to 5.5. The total opened at 58 and hasn’t moved. View complete line history here.

TRENDS

* Seminoles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.
* Seminoles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November.
* Under is 8-1 in Seminoles last 9 games in November.
* Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Kansas at No. 15 West Virginia (34.5, 53.5)

* The Jayhawks look to pin West Virginia with its first home loss in five games this season as they face their third ranked team (Baylor, Oklahoma) on the road in four weeks. Some kind of spark is needed to jump start an offense that averages only 19.4 points for a team tied for last in the Big 12. Running back Ke’aun Kinner (427 rushing yards) leads a ground game that averages only 102.8 yards and scored six touchdowns this season.

* The Mountaineers rank 18th nationally in averaging 497.3 yards per game, but the offense turned the ball over three times inside their own 15-yard line against Oklahoma State. Top rusher Rushel Shell III has gained 503 yards and five touchdowns, but did not return after suffering a leg injury during the second quarter last week. Quarterback Skyler Howard threw for 212 yards last week and has 2,033 yards and 13 touchdowns for the season.

LINE HISTORY: West Virginia opened the betting week as 34.5-point home favorites and the number has remained the same all week. The total opened at 55 and has slowly been dropping all week - all the way down to 53.5. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
* Under is 5-0 in Jayhawks last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Under is 7-1 in Jayhawks last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 7-1 in Mountaineers last 8 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

Iowa at No. 23 Penn State (7.5, 53)

* Senior quarterback C.J. Beathard has thrown for 1,380 yards with 11 TDs and four interceptions but his numbers are down across the board from last season when the Hawkeyes opened the season with 11 straight wins. Backs Akrum Wadley (636 yards) and LeShun Daniels Jr. (624), who rank seventh and eighth, respectively, in the Big Ten rushing chase, will look to exploit a run defense that surrenders 183 yards per game. Cornerback Desmond King (the only Big Ten Player in the last 20 years with 12 career interceptions and 1,500 kickoff/punt return yards), linebacker Josey Jewell (16 tackles against Wisconsin) and defensive tackle Jaleel Johnson (tied for fourth in Big Ten with 5.5 sacks) lead a defense that yields 154 yards per game on the ground.

* Barkley has a conference-high 888 yards rushing, averaging six yards per carry, and he leads the Big Ten with 111 rush yards per game to go with 11 total TDs. McSorley (55.2 completion rate, 12 TDs, three interceptions), who threw a career-high three touchdowns last week, is averaging over 15 yards a completion in each of the last four games. The defense, led by safety Marcus Allen as well as linebackers Brandon Bell and Jason Cabinda (both playing their third game back after missing several games with injuries), has allowed just 81 points after halftime and has held two teams scoreless.

LINE HISTORY: Penn State opened as 5.5-home favourite and, despite the spread going as high as 8 at one point on Tuesday, they currently sit as 7-point favorites. The total opened at 53 and went up by half point to 53.5. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Hawkeyes are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Nittany Lions are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
* Over is 5-0-1 in Hawkeyes last 6 games on grass.
* Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Penn State.

No. 10 Nebraska at No. 6 Ohio State (17, 52.5)

* The Cornhuskers overcame a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter last week but ultimately fell in overtime as they were not able to stop the running game all night. Nebraska allowed 5.9 yards per carry and two rushing touchdowns but still has the 18th-ranked defense in the country, allowing 18.4 points entering this weekend's action. Quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. became the 11th player in Big Ten history to go over 10,000 career yards and comes into this matchup hoping to take better care of the ball, as he has six interceptions in the last four games after totaling one in the first four games.

* The Buckeyes ran for 208 yards last week in the victory against Northwestern, getting a team-high 87 yards and two TDs from Mike Weber. Malik Hooker had 14 tackles to lead the Ohio State defense, which has given up only three rushing TDs this season and ranks sixth in the nation in yards allowed per game (295.5) and points allowed per game (15.1). Offensively, Weber provides a nice balance to quarterback J.T. Barrett, who has accounted for 90 career touchdowns - tops in Ohio State history - but has thrown only three touchdowns in the last four games after passing for 14 scores in the season's first four outings.

LINE HISTORY: Ohio State opened the betting week as 12.5-home favorites and that number was definitely not enough for the betting public. Plenty of Ohio State money bumped that number up to 17 by Friday morning. The total opened at 52.5 and has stayed there all week. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Cornhuskers are 4-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Cornhuskers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
* Under is 6-0 in Cornhuskers last 6 games overall.
* Under is 4-0 in Buckeyes last 4 home games.

No. 4 Washington at California (17, 77.5)

* The Huskies average 46.1 points per game and sophomore quarterback Jake Browning has joined has the Heisman race by throwing 28 touchdowns passes against only three interceptions. Junior wideouts John Ross (11) and Pettis (eight) have combined for 19 touchdown receptions while sophomore running back Myles Gaskin has rushed for 878 yards and seven touchdowns. Washington leads the nation in turnover margin (plus 1.63 per game) and fumble recoveries (12) - junior inside linebacker Keishawn Bierria is the nation's individual leader with five – and ranks seventh in scoring defense at 15.8 points per game.

* The Golden Bears can score rapidly (41.3 average) but give up points just as fast (41.8) and the pass-first offense hinges on senior quarterback Davis Webb, who has passed for 2,914 yards and 29 touchdowns. Senior running back Khalfani Muhammad has a team-best 614 rushing yards while freshman receiver Demetris Robertson is helping make up for the absence of Hansen with six scoring receptions. Cal is a woeful 124th in total defense (505.9 yards per game) despite the opportunistic nature of junior free safety Luke Rubenzer, who has four takeaways (two interceptions, two fumble recoveries).

LINE HISTORY: Washington opened as 15.5-point road favorites and throughout the week that spread grew to 17 Friday morning. The total opened at 78.5 and dropped two full points to 76.5. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Golden Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
* Golden Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
* Over is 5-0 in Huskies last 5 road games.
* Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in California.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Thursday, November 3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NCAAF Game of the Day: Alabama at Louisiana State
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Can LSU shake up the playoff picture and upset No. 1 Alabama as 7.5-point home dogs this Saturday?

Alabama Crimson Tide at Louisiana State Tigers (+7.5, 45)

Top-ranked Alabama is soaring toward the College Football Playoff and seeks its 21st consecutive victory when it visits No. 14 LSU on Saturday. The Crimson Tide also are atop the first CFP poll of the season but will have to overcome the loss of senior star safety Eddie Jackson (broken leg) down the stretch.

Alabama has scored a stunning 12 non-offensive touchdowns (nine on defense, three on punt returns) during its dominating campaign but is certainly wary of the Tigers, who are 3-0 since interim coach Ed Orgeron replaced Les Miles. “This is a tremendous challenge for us to play what is arguably an undefeated team since they have been undefeated since new coach Ed Orgeron took over,” Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban said at a press conference. “They have a very good team. They are playing very well right now with a new energy and new enthusiasm.” LSU junior running back Leonard Fournette is back on his game after dealing with an ankle injury earlier this season and set a school record with 284 rushing yards in a victory over Ole Miss. "He's probably the most motivated guy on the team, to be honest with you," Orgeron told reporters of Fournette. "I've heard him this week. He has spoken to the team; he will speak to the team again. His 'want to' to have success against Alabama is as high as any other player I've seen and so is our team.”

TV: 8 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened at Louisiana State +7 and has been bet up as high as 8.5, and settled at 7.5 Thursday night. The total opened at 47 and has been driven down as low as 44.5 - rising back to 45. Follow the complete line history, here.

INJURY REPORT:

Alabama - RB Bo Scarbrough (illness, questionable), WR Calvin Ridley (knee, questionable), OL Alphonse Taylor (concussion, questionable), RB B.J. Emmons (foot, out indefinitely), DB Eddie Jackson (leg, out for season)

Louisiana State - T Toby Weathersby (ankle, probable), Rickey Jefferson (leg, out for season), S Corey Thompson (knee, out for season), OL Donvaughn Campbell (suspension, out indefinitely), DE Isaiah Washington (knee, out for season), DT Christian LaCouture (knee, out for season)

WEATHER REPORT: Sunny skies are expected for kickoff at Tiger Stadium, with a 1 percent chance of rain and temperatures in the mid-60s at kickoff.

ABOUT ALABAMA (8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS, 4-4 OU): Jackson has scored three of the Crimson Tide’s 12 non-offensive touchdowns and losing his 23.0 average on punt returns will also cost the squad some of the field-position advantages it has enjoyed. The defense’s other major star is still around and senior defensive end Jonathan Allen has six sacks to raise his career total to 24, one behind second-place Kindal Moorehead (1998-2002) on Alabama’s all-time list. Freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts has accounted for 20 touchdowns (11 passing, nine rushing), sophomore running back Damien Harris has a team-leading 697 rushing yards and sophomore wideout Calvin Ridley has 43 receptions for 504 yards and five scores.

ABOUT LSU (5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS, 0-5-2 OU): Fournette has rushed for 670 yards and five touchdowns despite a three-game absence and will hasn’t forgotten that his 2015 Heisman hopes were squashed against the Crimson Tide when he had just 31 yards on 19 carries. Sophomore Derrius Grice is also running well with 621 yards and seven scores while junior quarterback Danny Etling has thrown for 1,129 yards and seven touchdowns against three interceptions. The Tigers are allowing just 15 points per game – which ranks fifth nationally – with sophomore outside linebacker Arden Key (team-high eight sacks) and senior middle linebacker Kendell Beckwith (team-leading 69 tackles) enjoying solid campaigns.

TRENDS:

Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Crimson Tide are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The Crimson Tide are the popular team in this one, with 62% of users taking Alabama - 7.5, while 60% of users taking the over.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 10

Sat – Nov. 5

first post

Navy at Notre Dame, 11:30 AM ET
Navy: 41-22 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses
Notre Dame: 1-5 ATS after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game

Texas State at Appalachian State, 3:30 PM ET
Texas St: 5-1 off a home loss by 14 or more points
Appalachian St: 1-5 ATS after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games

BYU at Cincinnati, 3:30 PM ET
BYU: 32-17 UNDER off 2 or more consecutive unders
Cincinnati: 30-16 ATS after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game

Air Force at Army, 12:00 PM ET
Air Force: 15-6 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins
Army: 76-103 ATS in non-conference games

Louisville at Boston College, 12:00 PM ET
Louisville: 7-3 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56
Boston College: 0-6 ATS in home games after playing a conference game

Purdue at Minnesota, 3:30 PM ET
Purdue: 8-1 ATS in road games after playing a conference game
Minnesota: 34-18 OVER in home games after playing 2 straight conference games

Virginia Tech at Duke, 3:30 PM ET
Virginia Tech: 13-4 ATS in road games off a close win by 7 points or less over a conference rival
Duke: 9-1 UNDER in home lined games

Syracuse at Clemson, 3:30 PM ET
Syracuse: 32-17 ATS after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game
Clemson: 3-11 ATS off 2 straight wins against conference rivals

Kansas at West Virginia, 7:00 PM ET
Kansas: 2-10 ATS in road games against conference opponents
West Virginia: 9-2 UNDER as a home favorite

[Udog]

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 10

Sat – Nov. 5

first update

Indiana at Rutgers, 12:00 PM ET
Indiana: 6-17 ATS after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game
Rutgers: 5-2 ATS after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers

Michigan State at Illinois, 12:00 PM ET
Michigan St: 23-9 OVER in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49
Illinois: 14-30 ATS in home games after having lost 2 out of their last 3

Florida State at North Carolina State, 7:00 PM ET
Florida St: 11-25 ATS in road games after playing 3 straight conference games
N Carolina St: 20-6 ATS after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games

Maryland at Michigan, 3:30 PM ET
Maryland: 6-0 ATS in road games after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game
Michigan: 3-12 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in 3 straight games

Virginia at Wake Forest, 3:00 PM ET
Virginia: 7-0 ATS in road lined games
Wake Forest: 29-15 UNDER after scoring 14 points or less last game

Oklahoma State at Kansas State, 3:30 PM ET
Oklahoma St: 14-4 OVER off an upset win as an underdog
Kansas St: 8-1 ATS in home games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers

East Carolina at Tulsa, 8:00 PM ET
East Carolina: 4-16 ATS against conference opponents
Tulsa: 19-8 ATS after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game

Tex San Antonio at Mid Tennessee State, 2:30 PM ET
Tex San Antonio: 3-10 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games
Mid Tennessee St: 7-5 ATS as a home favorite

Charlotte at Southern Miss, 3:30 PM ET
Charlotte: 3-1 ATS against conference opponents
S Miss: 3-12 ATS in home games after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game

TCU at Baylor, 3:30 PM ET
TCU: 1-7 ATS in all lined games
Baylor: 18-4 ATS in home games after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games

Pittsburgh at Miami FL, 12:30 PM ET
Pittsburgh: 22-10 ATS in road games after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers
Miami FL: 65-41 UNDER in home lined games

Georgia Tech at North Carolina, 12:30 PM ET
Georgia Tech: 2-10 ATS against conference opponents
North Carolina: 41-24 ATS after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers

Vanderbilt at Auburn, 12:00 PM ET
Vanderbilt: 12-2 ATS off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite
Auburn: 1-8 ATS after playing their last game on the road

Georgia at Kentucky, 7:30 PM ET
Georgia: 16-5 ATS after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses
Kentucky: 5-17 ATS after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7

Florida at Arkansas, 3:30 PM ET
Florida: 70-46 ATS in road games against conference opponents
Arkansas: 7-18 ATS in home games after a game where they forced no turnovers

[Udog]

Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a college football Saturday

13) Alabama 10, LSU 0— Old-time football. Can’t blame Les Miles for this one. Two QBs were badly overmatched by speedy defenses in this game. This was first time in nine years (Florida State, ’07) that Crimson Tide didn’t score in first half.

Since Nick Saban has been at Alabama (2007) every other SEC team has changed coaches. I’m totally baffled as to what LSU will do for a head coach.

12) Florida State 24, NC State 20— Gutty road win for the Seminoles, making Tuesday night’s Showtime episode another good one. I have a feeling FSU is going to win their bowl game by a lot- it’ll be a lesser bowl and they’ll be lot healthier, especially on defense. NC State had 31 first downs in this game, but lost.

11) Wisconsin 21, Northwestern 7— Evanston is a suburb of Chicago; no way was this a normal week in the Windy City, with the Cubs winning the World Series late Wednesday night, then the parade with five million people Friday afternoon. Did the World Series mess up Northwestern’s prep for this game, or is it a simple case of the better team winning?

10) Mississippi State 35, Texas A&M 28— People get all bent out of shape about the rankings for the playoffs, but these things tend to play themselves out in November. Now Aggies are out of the top 4 so people can stop complaining about A&M and start complaining again Tuesday night, when they’re replaced in the top 4 by someone else.

9) Minnesota 44, Purdue 31— Coaching 101— Gophers led 37-31 with under 2:00 left, score TD with 1:30 left to go up 43-31. It didn’t matter in this game, but you have to to go for 2 points in this spot. Being up 43-31 is the same as 44-31, but 45-31 means if you do give up two TDs, you still get OT to win the game. Minnesota kicked the PAT, which was a mistake.

8) Upset of the Day: Tex-San Antonio 45, Middle Tennessee 25— Roadrunners were a 20-point underdog- they ran ball for 270 yards and only need one more win to become bowl eligible.

Upset of the Day, #2— Charlotte 38, Southern Miss 27— 49ers were a 19.5-point underdog and got a big win for their young program.

7) Illinois 31, Michigan State 27— Spartans were 36-5 the last three years; they’re 2-7 this year and now have lost seven games in a row.

6) Navy 28, Notre Dame 27— Fighting Irish are now 3-6 as they head to San Antonio to play Army next week; they still have to play Virginia Tech and USC. If I was a college football coach, I’d never schedule Navy- they’re too good and no one is impressed if you beat them.

5) TCU 62, Baylor 22— Two straight losses for the Bears; TCU ran 90 plays for 688 yards in an easy win (was 38-14 at the half). Curious to see how the coaching situation at Baylor plays out; doubtful Kendall Briles can stay there, with his dad having been fired. Could be wholesale changes, but they have lot of talented kids who could transfer out, so tough decisions need to be made. they need to keep as many of those players as possible.

4) South Carolina 31, Missouri 21— Gamecocks coach Will Muschamp put mousetraps all over the Carolina football facility this week, to remind players/coaches “not to take the cheese” and think the Gamecocks were bigger than life.

The ploy worked, Carolina won and is now 5-4- they need one more win to go bowling.

3) Oklahoma State 43, Kansas State 37— This was a fun game to watch; OSU ran 64 plays for 637 yards- only six of those 64 plays came on third down, thats how well they moved the ball, passing for 457 yards. K-State had the ball inside the 5-yard line in the last 0:30, before time ran out on them.

2) Georgia 27, Kentucky 24— SEC title game is going to be awful, Alabama favored by 20+ over Tennessee or Florida or some other mediocre team from the SEC East. Kentucky would have been atop East had they won this game. Dawgs kicked FG at the gun for the road win.

1— This is where I advise you to be careful taking big point spreads against teams who are trying to impress pollsters. Coaches won’t think twice about hanging huge scores up so they don’t get bypassed in this playoff system they have now. Consider yourself warned.

[Udog]

NCAAF opening line report: Alabama massive faves over scrappy Mississippi State

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are coming off an impressive 35-28 home win over Texas A&M as a 10-point ‘dog.

The college football season plows into Week 11 with some key matchups as the BCS standings and the College Football Playoff possibilities continue taking shape. We talk about opening lines on a few games with John Lester, senior lines manager for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

No. 3 Michigan Wolverines at Iowa Hawkeyes (+17.5)

Michigan hasn’t broken too much of a sweat all season, and certainly didn’t need to worry much during Week 10. The Wolverines (9-0 SU, 5-4 ATS) hammered Maryland 59-3 Saturday as a 29.5-point home favorite, stemming a 1-3 ATS in the process.

Iowa (5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS) looks more like Michigan’s next victim than the next opponent. The Hawkeyes had a bye week to prepare for Penn State, but still got shellacked 41-14 as a 6.5-point road underdog Saturday. But Lester warned against discounting the Hawkeyes.

“This may not be the week, but it seems like Kirk Ferentz and his kids pull off a big upset every year,” Lester said. “Everybody is going to give the undefeateds their best shots from here on out, so Michigan must be focused here. The Wolverines are facing another three-score spread, and they’ve been Jekyll-and-Hyde covering those.”

This will be Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh’s first meeting with Iowa, as the two schools last squared off in the 2013 season, a 24-21 Iowa victory in which the Wolverines cashed as a 6-point road pup.

No. 25 Baylor Bears at No. 9 Oklahoma Sooners (-14)

Two weeks ago. Baylor was undefeated, ranked sixth and thoroughly in the hunt for a CFP playoff berth. Not anymore. After tumbling at Texas 35-34 laying 4 points in Week 9, the Bears (6-2 SU, 2-6 ATS) got blasted Saturday by Texas Christian, losing 62-22 as a 7-point home chalk.

Conversely, Oklahoma has won six in a row after a bump 1-2 start. The Sooners (7-2 SU, 3-6 ATS) held off Iowa State last Thursday 34-24, falling well short as a 21-point fave. Oklahoma beat Baylor 44-34 catching 1.5 points on the road last year, ending a 4-0 ATS surge by the Bears in this rivalry (3-1 SU).

“We saw Baylor unravel at the seams last weekend, and this could be a tough one to get up for now that the losing skid is rolling,” Lester said. “That said, Oklahoma has been winning, but it hasn’t looked unbeatable against some suspect competition of late.”

Southern California Trojans at No. 4 Washington Huskies (-8)

Washington aims to keep its perfect record, along with its Pac-12 and CFP hopes, rolling along in Week 11. The Huskies (9-0 SU, 5-4 ATS) boatraced California 66-27 Saturday night giving 19 points on the road.

Southern Cal has seemingly righted its ship after a rocky 1-3 SU and ATS start. The Trojans (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) have peeled off five consecutive victories (4-1 ATS), including Saturday’s 45-20 rout of Oregon as a hefty 17-point home chalk.

Last year, Washington edged USC 17-12, falling well short as a 17-point road favorite.

“USC is going to have to play a perfect game to pull off the upset in Washington,” Lester said. “The BCS committee isn’t giving the Huskies much respect, but from what we’ve see, they are on an even playing field with a team like Michigan. The Trojans have been rolling, but Washington is a competitive and complete team, so the big spread is warranted.”

Mississippi State Bulldogs at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-29)

Alabama hasn’t lost a game since Sept. 19, 2015, a stretch in which it has gone 21-0 SU and 14-7 ATS. On Saturday night, the Crimson Tide got one of their toughest tests of that streak, as they were locked in a 0-0 tie at Louisiana State into the fourth quarter. But ‘Bama (9-0 SU, 7-2 ATS) came away with a 10-0 win and cover as a 7-point favorite.

A couple of weeks ago, Mississippi State was 2-5 SU and looked like it would be little more than a footnote for Alabama. That might still be the case, but the Bulldogs are coming off an impressive 35-28 home win over Texas A&M as a 10-point ‘dog.

“Both teams are coming off emotionally draining wins, but it’s safe to say the Tide are better equipped to regroup,” Lester said. “Last week was the first in a while that we didn’t see heavy Alabama action, but the underdog bettors didn’t collect, so we don’t expect a lot of favorite fading again this week, despite the massive spread.”

The Tide had little trouble with the Bulldogs last year, rolling 31-6 as a 7-point road chalk.