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NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 9 (Thursday, October 27 - Saturday, October 29)

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  • #16
    Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet and odds: Week 9

    Texas A&M quarterback Trevor Knight completed a season-low 45.2 percent of his passes and rushed for a season-low 24 yards last week vs Alabama.

    Central Florida Knights at No. 24 Houston Cougars (-9, 60)

    * Freshman McKenzie Milton (960 passing yards, eight touchdowns, two interceptions) improved to 2-2 as the Knights' starter after throwing a career-high 317 yards and three touchdowns at Connecticut. Senior Dontravious Wilson has rushed for 371 yards and seven touchdowns, while Milton has plenty of options in the passing game. Tre'Quan Smith leads the team with 23 catches for 360 yards and three scores, tight end Jordan Akins (15 catches, 278 yards, two TDs) is a steady target and freshman Dredrick Snelson (eight catches, 107 yards, TD) is emerging as a threat.

    * Greg Ward Jr. has thrown for 2,179 yards, 13 touchdowns and five interceptions, and he ranks fourth nationally with 370.9 yards per game, but the Houston offense has eight turnovers in its past three games. Running back Duke Catalon (279 rushing yards, TD) had 120 total yards versus the Mustangs after missing three games with a concussion. The Cougars are still ranked 13th nationally in total defense (312.1 yards) despite giving up 115 points and 1,247 yards in the past three weeks.

    LINE HISTORY: Houston opened as 10-point home favorites and as of Thursday night that point spread was down to -9. The total opened at 56 and has gone up all week - all the way up to 60.5. View complete line history here.

    TRENDS:

    * Knights are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on turf.
    * Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
    * Over is 4-1 in Knights last 5 road games.
    * Over is 5-0 in Cougars last 5 games following a straight up loss.


    No. 9 West Virginia Mountaineers at Oklahoma State Cowboys (+3.5, 65)

    * The Mountaineers are off to their first 6-0 start since 2006 and have three of the league’s four worst teams - Kansas, Texas and Iowa State - still on the schedule. Quarterback Skyler Howard threw four touchdowns passes against TCU and has completed 66.5 percent of his passes this season for 1,821 yards and 12 scores. Running back Rushel Shell (465 yards, five touchdowns) seeks his third straight 100-yard rushing game, while Justin Crawford (371, three) is expected to play despite an ankle injury.

    * The Cowboys’ offense averages 41.1 points per game, good for 14th-best in the nation, on the strength of quarterback Mason Rudolph and a receiving corps that has 10 players averaging 10-plus yards per catch. Rudolph has completed 62.1 percent of his passes for 2,256 yards and 14 touchdowns against only two interceptions. Freshman running back Justice Hill (565 rushing yards, four touchdowns) averages 119 yards in conference play and his next 100-yard game would be a program record fourth for first-year players.

    LINE HISTORY: West Virginia opened as 3-point road favorite and, despite the spread going as high as 4.5 at one point on Tuesday, they currently sit at 3.5-point favorites. The total opened at 65 and remains at that number on Thursday evening. View complete line history here.

    TRENDS:

    * Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
    * Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
    * Under is 5-1 in Mountaineers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
    * Over is 9-1 in Cowboys last 10 conference games.


    No. 2 Michigan Wolverines at Michigan State Spartans (+24.5, 55)

    * Jourdan Lewis and Jabrill Peppers were among 16 semifinalists for the Jim Thorpe Award, which is given annually to the best defensive back in college football. Freshman Chris Evans, who leads the Wolverines with 416 rushing yards, is likely to miss Saturday's contest after suffering a concussion in the first quarter of the win against Illinois. Fullback Khalid Hill scored his ninth touchdown of the season before leaving the game in the third quarter with an undisclosed injury but is expected to play Saturday - as is Tyree Kinnel, who also exited that contest early.

    * Freshman Brian Lewerke completed only 11-of-24 passes for 156 yards with an interception in the loss to Maryland, and Dantonio revealed Tyler O'Connor - who has started five games this season - was "nicked up" but hopes to have him back in time to face Michigan. Linebacker Riley Bullough was ejected for targeting - his third personal foul of the first 11 minutes - last week but can play from the opening kickoff on Saturday since the infraction took place in the first half. LJ Scott ran for 128 yards against the Terrapins to register his second 100-yard rushing performance of the season and the third of his career.

    LINE HISTORY: Michigan opened as 21-point faves and throughout the week that line continued to rise and on Thursday night was at 24.5. The total opened at 54 and went up a full point to 55. View complete line history here.

    TRENDS:

    * Wolverines are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
    * Spartans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
    * Over is 9-0 in Wolverines last 9 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
    * Under is 5-0 in Spartans last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.


    No. 5 Louisville Cardinals at Virginia Cavaliers (+33, 70)

    * Jackson is 92 yards shy of becoming the 15th player - and first quarterback - in school history to run for 1,000 yards; he leads all quarterbacks with 138.7 rushing yards per game and has run and passed for at least one score in a FBS-best 10 straight contests. Senior tight end Cole Hikutini posted a career-high 118 yards receiving on six catches versus the Wolfpack and has managed to accumulate at least 84 yards in three of his last four games. Sophomore Blanton Creque tied a school record with four field goals and set another by scoring 18 points as a kicker - marks good enough to net him ACC Specialist and Co-Rookie of the Week honors.

    * Taquan Mizzell was one of the few bright spots in an otherwise listless performance for the Cavaliers against North Carolina, posting his second career 100-yard rushing effort while accounting for 131 of the team's 253 total yards in the 35-14 defeat. Kurt Benkert, who threw for a school-record 421 yards passing against Central Michigan last month, was held to a season-low 126 and has only one passing TD over his last two games after throwing for 13 over his first five outings. Linebacker Micah Kiser (11) and safety Quin Blanding (10.7) lead the ACC in tackles per game - one of only two defensive duos from the same school to rank first and second for their respective conference.

    LINE HISTORY: Louisville is one of the country's top public teams right now and their opening advantage of 27.5 was nowhere near high enough for the betting public. Books were forced to raise the line twice per day all week long - eventually settling in as 33-point favorites on Thursday night. The total opened at 69 and went up a full point to 70. View complete line history here.

    TRENDS:

    * Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in October.
    * Cavaliers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
    * Over is 7-1 in Cardinals last 8 conference games.
    * Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.


    No. 4 Washington Huskies at No. 16 Utah Utes (+10, 53.5)

    * Sophomore quarterback Jake Browning has joined the Heisman Trophy race due to his stellar play and the Huskies' rise and he has thrown 26 touchdown passes against just two interceptions. Sophomore running back Myles Gaskin has rushed for a team-best 727 yards while junior wideouts John Ross (34 receptions for 486 yards and nine touchdowns) and Dante Pettis (27 for 457 with eight scores) are enjoying solid seasons. Washington leads the nation with 12 fumble recoveries - junior inside linebacker Keishawn Bierria is the nation's individual leader with five -- behind a sturdy defense allowing just 14.6 points per game but will be without senior outside linebacker Joe Mathis (team-high five sacks) due to a foot injury.

    * Junior quarterback Troy Williams has accounted for 12 touchdowns (seven passing, five rushing) while passing for 1,725 yards and has heavy motivation to play well against the Huskies. Williams began his college career at Washington and played in five games (one start) in 2014 but wasn't a recruit of current coach Chris Petersen and transferred after the campaign to a junior college before performing well enough to catch Utah's attention and then win the starting job. The defense will be missing injured junior free safety Marcus Williams (three interceptions, two fumble recoveries) but also has been receiving solid contributions from senior cornerback Brian Allen (team-best four interceptions), sophomore strong safety Chase Hansen (team-high 49 tackles) and senior defensive end Hunter Dimich (team-leading six sacks).

    LINE HISTORY: Washington opened as 10.5-point road favorites and by Thursday night that point spread was down to 10. The total opened at 51 and shot all of the way up to 53.5 by the end of the week. View complete line history here.

    TRENDS:

    * Huskies are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
    * Utes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
    * Over is 9-0 in Huskies last 9 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
    * Under is 6-1 in Utes last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.


    No. 6 Baylor Bears at Texas Longhorns (+3.5, 72)

    * Quarterback Seth Russell has completed 101-of-177 passes for 1,470 yards and 16 touchdowns this season and is the school's career leader in pass efficiency (169.2). His top target is junior wide receiver KD Cannon who returned from a groin injury against Kansas to catch three passes for 75 yards, including a 59-yard catch-and-run touchdown, while senior Shock Linwood -- who is the school's all-time leading rusher with 3,962 yards -- anchors a strong running attack that rolled up 246 rushing yards in the win over Kansas. Baylor leads the Big 12 in scoring defense (17.2) and total defense (320.3 yards per game) and is led by junior linebacker Taylor Young, who has a team best 46 tackles and three sacks, and safety Travon Blanchard, a Jim Thorpe Award semifinalist who has 29 tackles and three pass breakups.

    * The Longhorns have excellent offensive balance and are led by freshman quarterback Shane Buechele, who has passed for 1,722 yards and 15 touchdowns, and junior running back D'Onta Foreman, who leads the Big 12 with 855 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. "When I watch him play, I'm just amazed that a young guy is that mature.," Grobe said of Buechele. "He'll be a great challenge for our defense." The Longhorns' defense, which gave up 45 or more points in four of its first five games, has allowed a total of 30 points in its last two games and is lead by sophomore linebackers Anthony Wheeler (team best 50 tackles) and Malik Jefferson (40 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss).

    LINE HISTORY: Baylor began the betting week as 2.5-point road favorites and by the time this cheat sheet was put together they were up a full point to 3.5-point faves. The total hit the board at 69 (hehe...Gronk) and jumped all of the way up to 72. View complete line history here.

    TRENDS:

    * Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
    * Longhorns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
    * Under is 6-1 in Bears last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
    * Under is 5-1 in Longhorns last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
    * Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Texas.


    No. 12 Florida Gators vs Georgia Bulldogs (+7.5, 43.5)

    * Del Rio returned from a sprained left knee with an uneven performance against Missouri, going 18-for-38 for 236 yards as the Gators used two interception returns for touchdowns to build a 20-0 lead. Several running backs have combined to drive the Florida offense, as the Gators average 4.8 yards per carry and 181 yards per contest. Cornerbacks Jalen Tabor and Quincy Wilson have combined for seven interceptions on the season, while the Gators lead the SEC and are second in the nation in scoring defense (12 points per game).

    * The Bulldogs have played better on defense in their past two games, allowing 31 points total after giving up 24 or more in each of their first five games. Georgia continues to seek consistency on offense, where under freshman quarterback Jacob Eason and a stable of productive running backs the Bulldogs nonetheless rank 12th in the SEC in scoring offense (25.1 points per game). Eason threw for 346 yards against Vanderbilt, with freshmen Riley Ridley and Issac Nauta emerging as go-to threats (the duo combining for 10 catches for 141 yards).

    LINE HISTORY: Florida opened at 6.5-point road favorites and rose a full point to 7.5-point faves. The total opened at 43.5 and hasn't moved all week. View complete line history here.

    TRENDS:

    * Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
    * Bulldogs are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a bye week.
    * Under is 7-1 in Gators last 8 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
    * Under is 9-1 in Bulldogs last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.


    Northwestern Wildcats at No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes (-27, 53.5)

    * Clayton Thorson passed for 285 yards and three touchdowns in last week's victory over Indiana, giving him nine touchdowns and one interception (and two rushing scores) in the last three games. Justin Jackson has accounted for 82 percent of the team's rushing yardage this season and fell just short of his third straight 100-yard effort versus the Hoosiers. Austin Carr, meanwhile, has gone over 100 yards receiving in four of the last five outings and has scored nine touchdowns, all of them coming in the last six games.

    * The Buckeyes have given up 47 points in the last two games after yielding a total of 54 points in the first five games, although the unit still boasts some impressive stats. Ohio State's defense has given up eight touchdowns all year (while scoring four of their own) and has allowed only two rushing scores all season. Curtis Samuel was a bright spot against Penn State with eight catches for 68 yards - both team highs - and a 74-yard touchdown run that helped Ohio State build a 21-7 lead before a disastrous fourth quarter.

    LINE HISTORY: Ohio state opened the betting week as 21-point home favorites and that number was definitely not enough for the betting public. Plenty of early Ohio State action bumped that advantage all of the way up to -27. The total opened at 52.5 and went up a point to 53.5 by Thursday. View complete line history here.

    TRENDS:

    * Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
    * Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
    * Over is 5-1 in Wildcats last 6 games in October.
    * Under is 8-2 in Buckeyes last 10 conference games.


    No. 13 Boise State Broncos at Wyoming Cowboys (+13.5, 63.5)

    * Sophomore quarterback Brett Rypien has passed for 2,064 yards and 15 touchdowns, but his 442-yard outing against BYU was soured by throwing two pick-sixes. Senior receiver Thomas Sperbeck is enjoying a stellar season with 47 receptions for 810 yards and seven touchdowns and his 3,139 career receiving yards are tops in school history after he passed Titus Young (3,063 from 2007-10) during the BYU game. Sophomore nose tackle David Moa has a team-best 6 1/2 sacks and saved the game by blocking BYU's 44-yard field goal with 10 seconds remaining.

    * Hill, who is the school's all-time leading rusher with 3,437 yards, often carries the Cowboys on his back and the 289-yard performance was the second-highest showing in Wyoming history. Sophomore quarterback Josh Allen has accounted for 15 touchdowns (10 passing, five rushing) while senior receiver Tanner Gentry has been solid with 38 receptions for 612 yards and five scores. The Cowboys allow 30.3 points per game and feature a solid player in sophomore free safety Andrew Wingard (team-best 75 tackles), while sophomore strong safety Marcus Epps and sophomore cornerback Antonio Hull each have three interceptions.

    LINE HISTORY: Boise State opened as 14.5-point road favorites and throughout the week that spread was reduced to 13.5. The total opened at 61.5 and jumped two full points to 63.5. View complete line history here.

    TRENDS:

    * Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
    * Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games in October.
    * Over is 9-2 in Broncos last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
    * Over is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 conference games.


    Kansas Jayhawks at No. 15 Oklahoma Sooners (-40, 67.5)

    * The Jayhawks opened the season with a 55-6 rout of Rhode Island of the FCS, but have since dropped six straight, with the closest being a near-miss home loss (24-23) to TCU on Oct. 8. Kansas has used a pair of quarterbacks this season, but redshirt-junior Montell Cozart – who started last week’s 44-20 loss to visiting Oklahoma State after not playing the previous two contests – has been the most effective, throwing for 831 yards and seven touchdowns in five games. As aforementioned, the Jayhawks rank ninth in the Big 12, allowing 36.9 points per contest, but defensive end Dorance Armstrong Jr. ranks ninth nationally with seven sacks and Kansas ranks eighth nationally with 8.4 tackles for loss per outing.

    * In just the opposite of the Big 12 defensive stats, the Sooners rank in the FBS top eight in scoring (43.9 points per game) and total offense (572.3 yards) and amazingly matched Texas Tech with 854 total yards. Baker Mayfield threw for 545 yards and set a school single-game record with seven passing TDs in the contest while tailback Joe Mixon, filling in for the injured Samaje Perine, became the first Oklahoma player to top 200 rushing yards (263) and 100 receiving yards (114) in a game and sizzling wide receiver Dede Westbrook hauled in nine passes for 202 yards and a pair of TDs. Outside linebacker Ogbonnia Okoronkwo has seven sacks and inside linebacker Jordan Evans ranks fourth in the conference with 7.7 tackles per game for the Sooners, who to their credit, have faced five top-34 total offenses to date in Texas Tech, Ohio State, TCU, Houston and Texas.

    LINE HISTORY: Oklahoma opened as massive 40.5-point home favorites over the visiting Jayhawks and by Thursday that spread was down to -40. The total opened at 67 and went up by a half point to 67.5. View complete line history here.

    TRENDS:

    * Jayhawks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
    * Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
    * Under is 6-1 in Jayhawks last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
    * Over is 10-2 in Sooners last 12 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.


    No. 6 Nebraska Cornhuskers at No. 11 Wisconsin Badgers (-9, 43)

    * Armstrong, who can move into sole possession of third place in school history for career wins by a quarterback this weekend (tied with three others at 29), needs 11 yards to become the 11th player in conference history to reach 10,000 yards of total offense, and he's also 245 yards away from breaking the school's career total offense record. Jordan Westerkamp (back) will return from a two-game absence and tie Nebraska legend Johnny Rodgers (143) for third place in school annals with his next catch. Leading rusher Terrell Newby is 129 yards shy of becoming the 29th Cornhusker to run for 2,000 career yards and has amassed 235 of his 324 rushing yards over the last three contests in the fourth quarter.

    * The Badgers will be without linebacker Jack Cichy (team-high 60 tackles) after he suffered a torn pectoral muscle against Iowa, making him the latest injury casualty to a unit that already lost inside linebacker Chris Orr for the season. They will also be without nose tackle Olive Sagapolu and possibly even cornerbacks Derrick Tindal and Natrell Jamerson. Corey Clement is the Big Ten's second-leading rusher (102.8 yards) and has compiled 298 yards on 60 carries over the last two games. Senior quarterback Bart Houston, who lost his job to freshman Alex Hornibrook in mid-September, saw his first action in four games versus the Hawkeyes, throwing for Wisconsin's only passing touchdown on the team's first possession.

    LINE HISTORY: Wisconsin opened the betting week as 7.5-point home favorites and by Thursday that number was up to -9. The total opened at 43 and did not move all week. View complete line history here.

    TRENDS:

    * Cornhuskers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games.
    * Badgers are 6-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
    * Under is 6-0 in Cornhuskers last 6 conference games.
    * Under is 13-3 in Badgers last 16 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.


    No. 17 Auburn Tigers at Mississippi Rebels (+4, 63)

    * Sophomore running back Kerryon Johnson (ankle) could return to the lineup to add another major threat to a rushing attack that ranks third in the nation at 302.9 yards per contest. Sophomore Kamryn Pettway has recorded 361 of his 697 rushing yards and five of his six touchdowns on the ground the past two games for the Tigers. Sophomore quarterback Sean White has been very efficient, completing 68.5 percent of his passes with seven TD strikes and two interceptions while senior Tony Stevens has a team-high 24 receptions.

    * Kelly threw for 381 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the 27-19 victory over Auburn last year and is completing 62.2 percent of his passes this season with 15 TDs and seven interceptions. Kelly has plenty of weapons but his main target is senior Evan Engram, who leads all tight ends in the nation in receiving yards with 605 on 40 receptions with five scores. Senior Akeem Judd leads the ground attack with 382 yards and four TDs, although he has reached 100 in a game just once this season and Kelly is second on the team in rushing (269).

    LINE HISTORY: Auburn opened the week as 2.5-point road favorites and by Thursday that number was up to 4 points. The total hit the betting board at 63 and hasn't moved all week. View complete line history here.

    TRENDS:

    * Tigers are 8-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
    * Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
    * Under is 7-1 in Tigers last 8 conference games.
    * Under is 8-0 in Rebels last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
    * Over is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings in Mississippi.


    No. 18 Tennessee Volunteers at South Carolina Gamecocks (+13.5, 50.5)

    * The Volunteers' hopes for a spot in the College Football Playoff are now a big longshot, though if they manage to win out and Florida loses another game they will get another shot at Alabama in the SEC championship game. Tennessee is fighting through a slew of injuries but still has quarterback Joshua Dobbs, who is looking to bounce back after throwing a pair of interceptions in the loss at Texas A&M and being held to 92 yards and no touchdowns through the air by Alabama. Dobbs passed for 255 yards and two touchdowns in a 27-24 win over South Carolina last season that was part of a six-game winning streak to end the season following a loss to Alabama.

    * The Gamecocks spent the first half of the season trying to settle on one quarterback and may have finally found their man in Jake Bentley. The freshman made his first appearance against Massachusetts last week and completed 17-of-26 for 201 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions in the win as South Carolina managed more than 20 points for the first time this season. Perry Orth and Brandon McIlwain each started three games before the Gamecocks abandoned their plans to redshirt Bentley.

    LINE HISTORY: Tennessee opened as 13-point road favorites and edged up a half point to 13.5. The total opened at 50.5 and has yet to move. View complete line history here.

    TRENDS:

    * Volunteers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
    * Gamecocks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
    * Over is 6-0 in Volunteers last 6 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
    * Under is 6-1 in Gamecocks last 7 conference games.
    * Volunteers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings in South Carolina.


    New Mexico State Aggies at No. 10 Texas A&M Aggies (-43.5, 71)

    * The Aggies held an opponent under 31 points for the first time this season against Georgia Southern last week but still could not come out with a win in a 22-19 setback. Senior quarterback Tyler Rogers threw five interceptions in a 52-6 loss at Troy on Sept. 24 but is steadily improving and passed for a total of four touchdowns and one interception over the last two contests. Running back Larry Rose rushed for 14 touchdowns last season but missed the first three games recovering from a sports hernia and found the end zone once in four games since his return.

    * The Aggies defense got a major boost against Alabama with increased playing time for defensive end Myles Garrett, who recorded 3.5 tackles for loss despite still not being 100 percent due to a leg injury suffered last month. The offense was not able to hold up its end of the bargain as quarterback Trevor Knight completed a season-low 45.2 percent of his passes and rushed for a season-low 24 yards. Garrett and Knight will be tasked with keeping their teammates focused on Saturday's matchup instead of looking ahead to a closing stretch that includes dates with Ole Miss, Mississippi State and LSU.

    LINE HISTORY: Texas A&M opened as 41.4-point home favorites and the public decided that massive number wasn't enough and bet the -41.5 up to -43.5. The total opened at 69.5 and quickly rose to 71. View complete line history here.

    TRENDS:

    * NMS Aggies are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. SEC.
    * TAM Aggies are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.
    * Over is 21-5 in New Mexico State's last 26 non-conference games.
    * Under is 8-1-1 in Texas A&M's last 10 games on grass.


    No. 3 Clemson Tigers at No. 14 Florida State Seminoles (+4.5, 60)

    * Watson gives the Tigers a flashy star on offense — and Clemson ranks 18th nationally with 304.9 passing yards per game — but a dominant defense has carried the Tigers at times. Clemson ranks in the top 10 in the nation in total defense, scoring defense and passing defense, and the Tigers average a whopping nine tackles for loss per game. If there is a weakness its the run defense, which will have its hands full trying to slow down Cook.

    * Cook ranks ninth in the nation in rushing yards (900), but the Seminoles have displayed decent balance with Deondre Francois under center. The redshirt freshman quarterback threw two touchdowns in a road win at Miami and passed for 319 yards and a score in last week’s win over Wake Forest. The Seminoles’ downfall against quality opponents has been their defense, allowing 530 total yards or more in losses to Louisville and North Carolina.

    LINE HISTORY: Clemson opened this betting week as 3-point road favorites and the public decided that wasn't high enough - betting the Tigers up to 4.5-point faves. The total hit the betting board at 60 and hasn't moved all week. View complete line history here.

    TRENDS:

    * Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
    * Seminoles are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
    * Over is 6-1 in Tigers last 7 games in October.
    * Under is 8-2 in Seminoles last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
    * Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

    Comment


    • #17
      Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

      Some college football trends to ponder…….

      — Underdogs are 5-2-1 vs spread in last 8 Kansas State-Iowa State games.

      — Favorites covered four of last five Stanford-Arizona games.

      — Home side won eight of last nine Clemson-Florida State games.

      — Georgia is 2-7-1 vs spread in last 10 games as an underdog.

      — Ohio State is 11-4 vs spread in games off a SU loss.

      — Underdogs covered five of last six Tennessee-South Carolina games.

      Comment


      • #18
        Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday…..

        13) Wyoming 30, Boise State 28— Wyoming coach Craig Bohl won three consecutive I-AA national titles at North Dakota State; this is his third year in Laramie- he went 4-8/2-10 in his first two years, but behind the terrific soph QB Allen, Cowboys are 6-2 and on a serious roll. This is a great, great win for Wyoming, which trailed 21-7 early.

        12) Clemson 37, Florida State 34— This was a great college football game.

        Showtime will have tough time whittling highlights of this game into their Tuesday night reality show on the Seminoles. I said this once before this year and I’ll say it again; Dalvin Cook is the best college RB in the country. He is a beast and he plays every game.

        Trivia: Rex Ryan’s son is Clemson’s long snapper.

        Florida State QB Francois got pummeled in this game; he was like the QB in the movie Friday Night Lights in the climactic state championship game— he got crushed, but that was a movie and this was very real. Young Francois is a freshman and a damn tough kid.

        11) Temple 34, Cincinnati 13— Why hasn’t Temple coach Matt Rhule gotten a better job? Guy is 21-13 in his last 34 games at Temple, where winning one game used to be a big deal. Owls outgained Cincy 474-186 in this one- they’ve won five of their last six games.

        10) Auburn 40, Ole Miss 29— Brent Musburger is 77 years old; if I’m lucky enough to live that long, I pray to God that I have Brent’s enthusiasm and energy for what he does. He is still the best at his job. This wasn’t an easy game to call, with not many huddles and lot of scoring, but Brent and analyst Jesse Palmer are a great team and a pleasure to listen to.

        9) Texas 35, Baylor 34— Bears lost a fumble inside the Texas 10 and kicked FGs of 24 and 27 years, meaning they failed in the red zone and that cost them this game.

        8) Notre Dame 30, Miami 27— Hurricanes are now 4-4 after a 4-0 start; they stormed back from down 20-0 to lead 27-20, but couldn’t finish the job. There was a time when this was THE GAME of the regular season in college football; that seems like a long time ago, because it was.

        7) Texas Tech 27, TCU 24 OT— Last year, Horned Frogs beat Tech 55-52; two years ago, it was 82-28, so you know Kliff Kingsbury has to be a happy man today.

        6) South Carolina 24, Tennessee 21— I was at this game in 2008; what a great day. Sat all day in a folding chair in a field next to a Winnebago, watching a flatscreen TV that was in the luggage compartment of the Winnebago and attached to a satellite dish. Ate Church’s fried chicken, the best fried chicken ever and talked football for 6 or 7 hours before going across the street to the stadium. It was 75-80 degrees in late October; good stuff.

        5) Houston 31, Central Florida 24— UCF led this game 21-3 at the half; Knights were winless last year, but are 4-4 and will be very good soon if they can keep coach Frost in Orlando. As for Houston, they’ve lost their confidence/swagger with two losses- maybe this will help them get it back.

        4) Thursday night was Upset Night in the MAC this week; 16.5-point dog Ohio U won 31-26 at Toledo, 18-point underdog Buffalo won at home over the Akron Zips.

        3) Michigan 32, Michigan State 23— Spartans had bedeviled Michigan for most of the last decade and gave them fits here, but Wolverines held on and State is 0-5 in the Big 14 for the first time since 1982.

        2) Washington 31, Utah 24— Huskies are 8-0 but because they play in the northwest, no one in the media cares too much. Washington coach Chris Petersen was the Boise State coach who won that bowl game against Oklahoma with a trick play- he is building a powerhouse in the Pac-12. Their Apple Cup game with Washington State will be a huge game nationally.

        1— Kent State 27, Central Michigan 24— Golden Flashes kicked a FG at the gun to win it; their kicker wears #57 but doesn’t look like a LB or a center. Didn’t have lot of faith in him to make the kick but he did, so tonight, he is big man on campus, which must be a happy campus with the nearby Indians leading the World Series 3-1.

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        • #19
          NCAAF opening line report: It's crunch time in college football

          The Crimson Tide (8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS) dispatched previously unbeaten Texas A&M, 33-14, as an 18-point home favorite on Oct. 22.

          The college football season goes headlong into November, with the first BCS standings due out this week, as well. We talk about the opening lines on four key Week 9 games with John Lester, senior lines manager for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

          No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 14 Louisiana State Tigers (+7.5)

          Alabama is coming off its bye week and looks as untouchable as ever. The Crimson Tide (8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS) dispatched previously unbeaten Texas A&M, 33-14, as an 18-point home favorite on Oct. 22. Seven of the Tide’s eight victories have come by at least that 19-point margin.

          LSU (5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS) has seemingly gotten it together since firing coach Les Miles, with interim coach Ed Orgeron leading the Tigers on a 3-0 SU and ATS run. On Saturday, as an 8.5-point home chalk, LSU dropped Mississippi 38-21.

          “We’re expecting to take more action on this game than any game since Week 1. It’s going to be huge,” Lester said. “As I’ve mentioned before, the Tide look like world-beaters, and we can’t garner any action on their opponents. That said, the LSU hype bus has been full-speed since Orgeron took over. Hopefully we’ll see some big Tigers bets here.”

          Alabama has won the last five in this SEC rivalry, going 4-1 ATS in that stretch.

          No. 10 Nebraska Cornhuskers at No. 6 Ohio State Buckeyes (-13.5)

          A pair of one-loss teams hoping to stay in the conversation for the College Football Playoff square off in the Horseshoe. Ohio State (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS) appeared to still be hung over from its stunning Week 7 road loss to Penn State, barely holding off Northwestern 24-20 Saturday as a hefty 25.5-point home fave. That marked the Buckeyes’ fourth straight ATS setback.

          Meanwhile, Nebraska nearly kept its unbeaten mark intact at Wisconsin, forcing the Badgers to overtime. But the Huskers (7-1 SU, 5-2-1 ATS) ultimately fell 23-17 while cashing as a 9-point underdog.

          “Despite losing, Nebraska opened our eyes a bit on Saturday,” Lester said. “Coach Mike Riley has really put his thumbprint on that program. The Buckeyes have been a bit up and down the last couple weeks, so we’re not sure what to expect from them going forward. My guess is that this line goes down before it goes up.”

          Maryland Terrapins at No. 2 Michigan Wolverines (-30.5)

          Even with Michigan coming off a less-than-impressive win, the oddsmakers still feel compelled to make the Wolverines (8-0 SU, 4-4 ATS) a massive favorite this week. Jim Harbaugh’s troops were pushed a bit at Michigan State on Saturday, going off as 24.5-point chalk but winning by just a 32-23 count.

          Maryland (5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS) won its first four games of the season, but has struggled since then. On Saturday at Indiana, the Terrapins came up 42-36 losers catching 3.5 points.

          “You can’t forget about the coaching connection here, as Maryland’s D.J. Durkin was under Harbaugh at Michigan (last year) and Stanford for three years,” Lester said. “Will knowing each other’s tendencies lead to a closer game than expected? Regardless, another 30-something spread for the Wolverines, as the competition has been pathetic the last month.”

          Texas Christian Horned Frogs at No. 13 Baylor Bears (-10)

          Baylor saw its hopes of making the four-team playoff take a big dent this past weekend, losing outright at Texas 35-34 giving 4 points. That marked the Bears’ first loss of the year, as they fell to 6-1 SU and 2-5 ATS.

          TCU is having its worst season in some time, at just 4-4 SU and a dismal 1-7 ATS. The Horned Frogs were 9.5-point home faves Saturday against Texas Tech, but lost 27-24 in overtime.

          “Well, we got to see how overrated those undefeated Big 12 really were this weekend,” Lester said, alluding to Baylor and West Virginia, which tumbled at Oklahoma State. “The TCU quarterback situation is muddled and ugly, and Baylor’s defense looks like a sieve. It’s anyone’s guess which team will come out on top here. Points in your pocket may not be a bad move.”

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