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NFL Underdogs: Week 8 pointspread picks and predictions
Randall Cobb and the Packers look line a real treat at +3 in the candy craving eyes of Andrew Caley.
Trick or treat!
Yup, it’s the time of year when you get the young ones dressed up to go door-to-door on the only night of the year when it’s OK to accept candy from strangers. Then we raid our kids treat bags in the name of safety.
Or you can do what I do and just buy boxes of Halloween candy, shut off your lights like you’re not home, turn on the game and say goodbye to your self-respect. But, I digress.
Betting NFL underdogs can feel a lot like having a trick-or-treat option.
When you're looking at the upcoming NFL schedule for the week, sometimes you see a line or two and you can’t believe you’re getting points with a certain team and it can be a real treat, But if you aren’t careful, some lines seem almost too good to be true and you’re about to get tricked.
The point is betting underdogs will almost always make you feel like you’ve eaten too much Halloween candy: you won't feel very well at first and then you'll start questioning your life decisions before you know it.
Either way, whether it’s a treat or a trick, it’s sometimes just best to dive into that candy with no regrets.
That’s kind of the way I felt when I saw the Packers-Falcons line this week.
On the surface, Falcons -3 makes sense. They're the owners of the NFL’s best offense by a wide margin at 433.6 yards per game and are tops in scoring at 32.7 points per game. Matt Ryan is the league’s top rated quarterback (among those who have played every game this season) with his 2,348 yards passing, 16 touchdowns to just four interceptions. Atlanta even has a balanced offense with a decent run game. But, the Falcons still feel like a trick to me.
They have lost two in a row and are giving up 28.4 points per game this season. And while they are 5-2 against the spread, they are 0-2 ATS as favorites.
Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers come to town off a mini-bye and seem to have figured things out on offense. Rodgers finally went over 300 yards through the air and is finding real chemistry with receivers, Randall Cobb, DeVante Adams and Ty Montgomery, who all had over 10 receptions last week.
This will be a shootout, no doubt. But I think the Packers win by a field goal and getting three points - that’s a treat.
Pick: Packers +3
San Diego Chargers (+4) at Denver Broncos
I know, I know. I may be pressing my luck when it comes to reaching into the candy bag that is the San Diego Chargers one more time. But I just can’t help myself.
Ever since I saw the Chargers play these same Broncos in person just three weeks ago, there seems to be something fun about this team and Philip Rivers looks like a man on a mission. If they had any idea of how to close out games early in the season, they could easily be 7-0 straight up.
Even with the tough losses, the Chargers are still 5-2 ATS this season. They are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games on the road and are 6-0 ATS in their last six games versus the AFC West. The Chargers just show up for these games. Win or lose.
Additionally, I don’t think people are making a big enough deal about the Broncos losing starting running back C.J. Anderson. Anderson was the focal point of the offense and now all that responsibility lies with rookie Devonte Booker.
Look for the Chargers to force Trevor Seimian to throw the ball, while getting pressure from the outside. Can you say Joey Bosa? He has been a beast in his first two games with two sacks in each.
Like I said, I may be reaching into the candy bag one too many times, but I’ll probably do so until the Chargers make me sick.
Pick: Chargers +4
Arizona Cardinals (+3) at Carolina Panthers
Talk about seeing ghosts. At this point, these two teams look like shadows of the ones that faced off for the right to play in the Super Bowl last January.
The reigning MVP, Cam Newton, has struggled mightily this year. He is completing just 57.8 percent of his passes and ranks 27th in passing yards and 25th in passer rating.
Carson Palmer and the Cardinals' aerial attack haven’t looked much better, but they do have David Johnson. The second-year back has been fantastic, sitting second in the league in rushing and has given the Arizona offense balance.
Plus, the Cardinals still have one of the league’s top stop units, while Carolina’s defense has taken a major step back.
Arizona just looks like it still has something to play for, while Carolina looks disinterested and ready to plop on the couch, turn off the lights and dig in to that bag of candy.
Pick: Cardinals +3
Last week: 2-1 ATS
Season: 13-8 ATS
Randall Cobb and the Packers look line a real treat at +3 in the candy craving eyes of Andrew Caley.
Trick or treat!
Yup, it’s the time of year when you get the young ones dressed up to go door-to-door on the only night of the year when it’s OK to accept candy from strangers. Then we raid our kids treat bags in the name of safety.
Or you can do what I do and just buy boxes of Halloween candy, shut off your lights like you’re not home, turn on the game and say goodbye to your self-respect. But, I digress.
Betting NFL underdogs can feel a lot like having a trick-or-treat option.
When you're looking at the upcoming NFL schedule for the week, sometimes you see a line or two and you can’t believe you’re getting points with a certain team and it can be a real treat, But if you aren’t careful, some lines seem almost too good to be true and you’re about to get tricked.
The point is betting underdogs will almost always make you feel like you’ve eaten too much Halloween candy: you won't feel very well at first and then you'll start questioning your life decisions before you know it.
Either way, whether it’s a treat or a trick, it’s sometimes just best to dive into that candy with no regrets.
That’s kind of the way I felt when I saw the Packers-Falcons line this week.
On the surface, Falcons -3 makes sense. They're the owners of the NFL’s best offense by a wide margin at 433.6 yards per game and are tops in scoring at 32.7 points per game. Matt Ryan is the league’s top rated quarterback (among those who have played every game this season) with his 2,348 yards passing, 16 touchdowns to just four interceptions. Atlanta even has a balanced offense with a decent run game. But, the Falcons still feel like a trick to me.
They have lost two in a row and are giving up 28.4 points per game this season. And while they are 5-2 against the spread, they are 0-2 ATS as favorites.
Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers come to town off a mini-bye and seem to have figured things out on offense. Rodgers finally went over 300 yards through the air and is finding real chemistry with receivers, Randall Cobb, DeVante Adams and Ty Montgomery, who all had over 10 receptions last week.
This will be a shootout, no doubt. But I think the Packers win by a field goal and getting three points - that’s a treat.
Pick: Packers +3
San Diego Chargers (+4) at Denver Broncos
I know, I know. I may be pressing my luck when it comes to reaching into the candy bag that is the San Diego Chargers one more time. But I just can’t help myself.
Ever since I saw the Chargers play these same Broncos in person just three weeks ago, there seems to be something fun about this team and Philip Rivers looks like a man on a mission. If they had any idea of how to close out games early in the season, they could easily be 7-0 straight up.
Even with the tough losses, the Chargers are still 5-2 ATS this season. They are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games on the road and are 6-0 ATS in their last six games versus the AFC West. The Chargers just show up for these games. Win or lose.
Additionally, I don’t think people are making a big enough deal about the Broncos losing starting running back C.J. Anderson. Anderson was the focal point of the offense and now all that responsibility lies with rookie Devonte Booker.
Look for the Chargers to force Trevor Seimian to throw the ball, while getting pressure from the outside. Can you say Joey Bosa? He has been a beast in his first two games with two sacks in each.
Like I said, I may be reaching into the candy bag one too many times, but I’ll probably do so until the Chargers make me sick.
Pick: Chargers +4
Arizona Cardinals (+3) at Carolina Panthers
Talk about seeing ghosts. At this point, these two teams look like shadows of the ones that faced off for the right to play in the Super Bowl last January.
The reigning MVP, Cam Newton, has struggled mightily this year. He is completing just 57.8 percent of his passes and ranks 27th in passing yards and 25th in passer rating.
Carson Palmer and the Cardinals' aerial attack haven’t looked much better, but they do have David Johnson. The second-year back has been fantastic, sitting second in the league in rushing and has given the Arizona offense balance.
Plus, the Cardinals still have one of the league’s top stop units, while Carolina’s defense has taken a major step back.
Arizona just looks like it still has something to play for, while Carolina looks disinterested and ready to plop on the couch, turn off the lights and dig in to that bag of candy.
Pick: Cardinals +3
Last week: 2-1 ATS
Season: 13-8 ATS
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