NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 8 (Thursday, October 20 - Saturday, October 22)

[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, October 22

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NCAAF Game of the Day: Texas A&M at Alabama
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Alabama looks for its 12th straight victory over ranked programs when it hosts No. 6 Texas A&M in Saturday's SEC showdown.

Texas A&M Aggies at Alabama Crimson Tide (-18.5, 58.5)

Even the tougher opponents are finding it hard to compete with top-ranked Alabama, which looks for its 12th straight victory over ranked programs when it hosts No. 6 Texas A&M in Saturday's SEC showdown. The Crimson Tide are looking for their 20th consecutive overall win and are coming off a complete dismantling of then-No. 11 Tennessee as they delivered a 49-10 shellacking.

Alabama has scored an amazing 11 non-offensive touchdowns (eight on defense, three on punt returns) and even hard-to-please Nick Saban had to acknowledge his squad played superb football against Tennessee. "Well, after watching the last game, we probably approached playing the most complete game all year," Saban said at a press conference. "There are obviously many things we can improve on. I think the question is: Do you rest on your laurels, or do you stay hungry to try to improve on the things you did correctly and fix the ones that you didn't? You can either build on it or rest on it." Unbeaten Texas A&M is Alabama's lone remaining challenger in the SEC West and coach Kevin Sumlin hears the chatter about his team being huge underdogs and refuses to get caught up in it. "This team has done a great job of blocking out the noise and going on about it and trying to be one game better," Sumlin said at a press conference. "We haven't played our best football yet. Comes a time where maybe you go into situations and you just play. That's where we are right now."

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE HISTORY: How impressive is Alabama this season? They're going up against the No. 6 team in the contry and oddsmakers opened them as 17-point favorites. Since then, bettors have moved the line to Crimson Tide -18.5. As for the total, it has yet to move off the opening number of 58.5. Check out the complete line history here.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened Alabama as 16.5 point favourites in this game and it was bet up to -18 with some sharp action. With the spread that high the action has been coming in on Texas A&M moving us back to Alabama -17.5 with over 75 percent of the action on Texas A&M to cover the spread."

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Battle of undefeated Top 10 ranked SEC foes finds both team having just faced Tennessee in each of their last contests. The Tide trounced the injury depleted Vols, 49-10, at Rocky Top while the Aggies slipped past Tennessee in overtime, 45-38, two weeks ago in College Station. While the common opponent edge goes the Bama, revenge incentive is strong in A&M’s favor as they’ve taken it on the chops three straight times in this series, including a 59-0 whitewash in their last visit here in 2014. Winner here assumes the pole position in the rugged SEC West."

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a beautiful day for football in Tuscaloosa, Alamaba on Saturday. The forecast is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the high 60's for the game. There will be a five-to-seven mile per hour wind gusting towards the southern endzone.

INJURY REPORT:

Texas A&M - WR R. Seals-Jones (questionable Saturday, leg), DL M. Garrett (questionable Saturday, ankle).

Alabama - OL A. Taylor (questionable Saturday, concussion).

ABOUT TEXAS A&M (6-0, 4-2 ATS, 2-3-1 O/U): The Aggies lead the SEC in total offense (532.8 yards per game) and rushing offense (274.3) and will be trying to penetrate an Alabama unit that leads the nation in rushing defense (69.2) and allows just 2.2 yards per carry. Standout freshman running back Trayveon Williams (SEC-leading 704 rushing yards, five touchdowns) has been superb with an 8.6 average per carry while senior quarterback Travis Knight has been effective as both a runner (502 yards, nine scores) and a passer (1,500 yards, nine touchdowns). Junior defensive end Myles Garrett (28 career sacks, team-leading four this season) is getting closer to full strength from an ankle injury and senior strong safety Justin Evans leads Texas A&M with 48 tackles and three interceptions.

ABOUT ALABAMA (7-0, 5-2 ATS, 4-3 O/U): Freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts has become a big-time star and has accounted for 17 touchdowns (nine passing, eight rushing) while passing for 1,385 yards and rushing for 428. Sophomore running back Damien Harris (572 yards) averages an impressive 8.3 yards per carry while sophomore wideout Calvin Ridley has 39 receptions for 477 yards and four touchdowns. Senior defensive end Jonathan Allen has five sacks to raise his career total to 23, two behind second-place Kindal Moorehead (1998-2002) on the Crimson Tide's all-time list while senior safety Eddie Jackson has a superb 25.8 punt-return average and has scored three total touchdowns (two on punt returns, one on an interception).

TRENDS:

* Texas A&M is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss.
* Alabama is 10-2 ATS versus a team with a winning record.
* Under is 7-0 in Texas A&M's last seven road games.
* Under is 4-1 in Alabama's last last home games.

CONSENSUS: Even though the line has moved in Alabama's favor, the public is siding with Texas A&M, as 63 percent of wagers are on the Aggies. As for the total, bettors are hammering the Over, with 71 percent of wagers backing it.


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[Udog]

Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday

13) Cleveland Indians haven’t been to the World Series since 1997, haven’t won one since 1948. Chicago Cubs are in World Series for first time since 1945; they last won one in 1908.

Two very happy fanbases; congrats to both. Should be a very good World Series.

12) Penn State 24, Ohio State 21— 19.5-point home dog Nittany Lions blocked FG for a TD, also blocked a punt that set up a FG, as they rallied back from down 21-7 in 4th quarter to post a big upset, ending Buckeyes’ 20-game road win streak.

11) Other big upsets Saturday: Hawai’i (+17) won in OT at Air Force. North Texas (+18) won at West Point. SMU (+21.5) stunned Houston 38-16 in Dallas. Been a rough couple weeks for the Cougars, who lost 46-40 to Navy two weeks ago.

10) Oklahoma 66, Texas Tech 59— Both teams gained exactly 854 yards in this outdoor tribute to the Arena League. Next February on Signing Day, I’m going to report here as to how many defensive players Texas Tech signs, because their defense sucks- they lost 68-55 at Arizona State last month. If you score 55 or 59 points, you should win.

Tech deserves mention for converting 20-25 third down plays. Unheard of numbers.

9) Wisconsin 17, Iowa 9— Hawkeyes’ coach Kirk Ferentz took a ton of heat on social media for kicking FG when Iowa trailed 17-6 with 0:43 left. Maybe it was gamblers who took Iowa plus the 4 points, but the Hawkeyes were outgained 423-236; he passed up a 4th-and-2 to kick the FG. I’m guessing he was skeptical Iowa could get the first down so they kicked a FG.

8) Charlotte 27, Marshall 24— Thundering Herd opened at -18.5, wound up at -8 and lost SU. Marshall didn’t score in the second half after leading 24-17 at the half.

7) LSU 38, Ole Miss 21— At one point in this game, Leonard Fournette had seven carries for 241 yards; he wound up with 16 carries for 284 yards. LSU outscored the Rebels 17-0 in second half. The new OC has made LSU’s offense more balanced.

6) Utah 52, UCLA 45— Best part of this game was when UCLA was lining up to kick a 39-yard FG when they were down 10 points. Sideline mike caught UCLA coach Mora f-bombing one of his assistants for sending out the wrong kicker. Kid made the FG, gestured towards the bench (he had to have heard his coach), which was a little funny, but Bruins have lost four of last five games, are 3-5 and things are not real rosy in Westwood right now.

5) Cal 52, Oregon 49 OT— Late Friday night/early Saturday, this marathon took place, Golden Bears ran 118 plays (a record) for 636 yards, blew a 31-14 halftime lead, endured 14 penalties for 145 yards (Oregon had 14 for 134) in handing the Ducks their fifth loss in a row.

A note to the officials in this game: No one pays to watch you ref. Throw fewer flags.

4) Colorado 10, Stanford 5— Either Stanford or Oregon won last seven Pac-12 titles; those two teams are a combined 0-6 this season vs Colorado and the two Washington schools. Cardinal is 1-3 in its last four games, with the one win at Notre Dame. This has been a strange season.

3) Auburn 56, Arkansas 3— In 2010, when he was at Wisconsin, Bret Bielema’s Badgers beat Indiana 83-20, two weeks before they beat Northwestern 70-23. Was surprised when Bielema bolted to the SEC, because there are no Indianas/Rutgers in the SEC. Tigers ran ball 57 times for 543 yards here as they crushed Arkansas, outgaining the Hogs 632-215. Bielema is 8-20 in SEC games, 1-3 this year. The SEC is a hell of a lot more of a grind than the Big 14.

2) Texas-El Paso 52, Tex-San Antonio 49 (5 OTs)— There were 45 points scored in the OT’s, after a scoreless 4th quarter. Miners (+9.5) are now 1-7; bad loss for UTSA, which I’m sure was counting on this game to get to six wins and bowl eligibility.

1) Navy 42, Memphis 28— Midshipmen ran ball for 447 yards and their five passes averaged 21.2 yards/attempt, with two TDs. Navy has a senior QB who sat the bench for three years but boy does he run the option well. They have to be very difficult to prepare for.

[Udog]

NCAAF opening line report: Clemson at Florida State highlights Week 9

“My best guess is that this spread will come down due to sharp action, but who knows? The line feels right.”

College football barrels into Week 9 with several teams in contention for the four-team College Football Playoff. Covers talks about opening lines on a few key games this week with John Lester, lines manager for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

No. 3 Clemson Tigers at No. 14 Florida State Seminoles (+2.5)

Clemson made it all the way to the championship game last year, losing a thriller to Alabama. The Tigers (7-0 SU, 4-3 ATS) are coming off their bye and have a spotless record this year, but just barely. In Week 7, Clemson topped North Carolina State 24-17 in overtime as a hefty 20-point home favorite.

Florida State (5-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) is pretty much out of the playoff chase, but would love to damage Clemson’s hopes. The Seminoles are also coming off a bye, after fending off Duke 17-6 laying 23.5 points at home.

“Both teams had an extra week to get healthy and game-plan, and this should end up being the best game on the college football board for Week 9,” Lester said. “My best guess is that this spread will come down due to sharp action, but who knows? The line feels right.”

No. 2 Michigan Wolverines at Michigan State Spartans (+20)

With Ohio State losing to Penn State on Saturday, Michigan has the inside track in the Big Ten. The Wolverines (7-0 SU, 4-3 ATS) coasted past Illinois 41-8 on Saturday, though they failed to cover as a massive 39.5-point home fave.

Michigan State, which lost to Alabama in the College Football Playoff semifinals last year, has completely fallen apart this season. The Spartans (2-5 SU, 1-6 ATS) have dumped five in a row SU and ATS, including Saturday’s 28-17 loss at Maryland giving 3 points.

“A far cry from what we’ve come to expect in this storied rivalry,” Lester said. “Michigan State just can’t seem to snap out of its funk, while the Wolverines plod along, doing nothing overly impressive, but winning football games. Like the Ohio State-Penn State matchup this past week, we’re expecting to see some sharp value players on the Spartans.”

No. 6 Nebraska Cornhuskers at No. 11 Wisconsin Badgers (-8)

The Cornhuskers have the unblemished record and the higher ranking, but are more than a touchdown underdog in Madison this week. Nebraska (7-0 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) held off Purdue 27-14 on Saturday, falling well short as a 24-point road chalk.

Wisconsin (5-2 SU, 6-1 ATS) bounced back from losses at Michigan and to Ohio State, beating Iowa 17-9 as a 3.5-point road fave Saturday.

“Is this the week the Cornhuskers finally get caught snoozing?” Lester queried. “We will be watching that offense intently to see if it can move the ball against Wisconsin’s stout defense. Still, having points in your back pocket of what should be a low-scoring affair might be a prudent play.”

No. 4 Washington Huskies at No. 16 Utah Utes (+10.5)

Washington is the class of the Pac-12 at this point, aided by a rout of Stanford last month that began a stunning drop-off by the Cardinal. This past weekend, the Huskies (7-0 SU, 4-3 ATS) dumped Oregon State 41-17 as a huge 36.5-point home favorite.

Utah (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS) is no slouch, either, aiming to stay atop the Pac-12 South. The Utes outlasted UCLA in a shootout Saturday, 52-45 as a 3.5-point road pup.

“This game and the Pac-12 championship are potentially the only road blocks left in Washington’s route to the College Football Playoff,” Lester said. “Salt Lake City can be a scary place to play, but the Huskies have looked so complete that we felt comfortable making them two-score chalk on the road.”