NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 7 (Thursday, October 20 - Monday, October 24)

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, October 24

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NFL Monday Night Football betting preview: Texans at Broncos
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Defense carried Denver to the Super Bowl title last season and it ranks No. 1 in yards against the pass (182.3) and in sacks (21).

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (-7.5, 40.5)

Brock Osweiler was instrumental in the Denver Broncos' run to a Super Bowl championship, but he was still allowed to walk via free agency in the offseason despite an obvious need at quarterback. Osweiler returns to the Mile High City off his best performance of the season when the Houston Texans visit the Denver Broncos on Monday night.

Osweiler went 5-2 in place of an injured Peyton Manning last season, but Denver was unwilling to meet the asking price -- a four-year, $72 million contract -- to keep him. "Bottom line I'm going to treat this game no different than any other game," Osweiler said. I'm going to go out and have a great week of practice and I'm going to understand the challenge ahead of us, but I'll look forward to that challenge." The move not to pursue Osweiler has looked brilliant as former seventh-round draft pick Trevor Siemian guided the Broncos to a 4-0 start. However, Siemian missed one game to injury and Denver's has sputtered in back-to-back losses to Atlanta and San Diego, scoring a combined 29 points.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The spread for this Monday night grudge match hit the board with the Broncos pegged as 7.5-point home favorites and the line has not moved all week. The total opened at 40.5 and has also been stable as of Sunday night. View complete line history here.

WEATHER REPORT: Weather conditions for Sunday night in Denver are forecast to be mostly cloudy with temperatures in the mid-60's at kickoff (dropping to low-50's in the second half). There is only a 5 percent change of rain with virtually no wind to impact the game.

INJURIES:

Texans - CB K. Jackson (Prob Mon, hamstring), QB B. Osweiler (Prob Mon, foot), WR D. Hopkins (Prob Mon, hamstring), CB J. Joseph (Prob Mon, forearm), WR W. Fuller (Prob Mon, hamstring), S L. Ballentine (Ques Mon, knee), TE S. Anderson (Ques Mon, hamstring), G J. Allen (Ques Mon, concussion), LB B. Peters (Ques Mon, quadricep), RB J. Grimes (Out Mon, leg), S Q. Demps (Out Mon, calf), CB K. Johnson (I-R, foot), LB B. Scarlett (I-R, hamstring), S K. Dillon (I-R, knee), DE D. Still (Elig Week 13, undisclosed), DE J. Watt (I-R, back), LB G. Rivers (I-R, undisclosed), LB T. Washington Jr. (I-R, undisclosed), S K. Drummond (I-R, leg), K K. Fairbairn (I-R, quadricep), C N. Martin (I-R, ankle).

Broncos - WR E. Sanders (Prob Mon, hip), S J. Simmons (Ques Mon, wrist), T R. Okung (Ques Mon, concussion), T D. Stephenson (Ques Mon, concussion), LB D. Ware (Out Mon, forearm), WR C. Latimer (Out Indefinitely, concussion), DE V. Walker (I-R, knee), C S. Brenner (I-R, concussion).

ABOUT THE TEXANS (4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS, 3-3 O/U): Osweiler's numbers were nondescript at best through much of the first six games, but he tossed a pair of touchdowns in the final 2:37 of regulation to spark a comeback in Houston's 26-23 overtime win over Indianapolis last weekend. Running back Lamar Miller, also a marquee free-agent signing in the offseason, is coming off his best game by rushing for 149 yards and scoring his first two touchdowns -- one on the ground and one receiving. Star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins had a season-high nine receptions against the Colts, but his longest catch went for only 12 yards.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS, 3-3 O/U): Defense carried Denver to the Super Bowl title last season and it ranks No. 1 in yards against the pass (182.3) and in sacks (21), but the running game is struggling to get untracked. Lead back C.J. Anderson has failed to rush for 50 yards in four consecutive games and is starting to lose touches to rookie Devontae Booker. Siemian, who suffered a shoulder injury in Week 4 that caused him to miss one game, has not been picked off since Week 2 and has a pair of top wideouts in Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas, who have combined for 67 receptions and six touchdowns.

TRENDS:

* Texans are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Monday games.
* Broncos are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 Monday games.
* Over is 13-3 in Texans' last 16 games in October.
* Under is 5-0 in Broncos' last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.

CONSENESUS: 55 percent of picks are on the Broncos to cover as road favorites while 55 percent of totals wagers are on the Over.


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[Udog]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Six most popular picks in Week 7 of the Westgate Super Contest:

1) Minnesota Vikings (751) -2.5- L

2) San Diego Chargers (599) +6.5- W

3) Tennessee Titans (562) -2.5- L

4) New England Patriots (506) -7- W

5) Miami Dolphins (489) +3- W

6) Oakland Raiders (413) +1- W

Season record: 15-26-1

[Udog]

NFL opening line report: Patriots are out for revenge at Buffalo in Week 8

"We decided on Pats -6.5, with the Bills off a loss and in pretty much a must-win spot at home."

All 32 NFL teams will hit the season’s midway point over the next two weeks, with contenders beginning to separate from pretenders. We talk about a few Week 8 opening lines with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor for offshore site Sportsbook.ag.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+6.5)

New England gets an opportunity to avenge its only loss this season, and this time, the Patriots will have Tom Brady on hand. The Pats (6-1 SU and ATS) are now 3-0 SU and ATS with Brady back under center, including Sunday’s 27-16 win laying 7.5 points at Pittsburgh, which was without Ben Roethlisberger.

Buffalo shut out New England 16-0 getting 3.5 points on the road Oct. 2, the second win of a four-game SU and ATS surge. But the Bills (4-3 SU and ATS) lost to Miami 28-25 on Sunday as a 2.5-point road favorite.

“The betting public has been on the Patriots in all three of Brady’s games,” Childs said Sunday night. “In fact, the last time the Pats failed to cover and win outright was against these Bills, an embarrassing shutout at home. So with the Patriots having a bit of revenge in this spot, taking on a very beat-up Bills team with a questionable LeSean McCoy and leading receiver Robert Woods also questionable, we really wanted to hang a full touchdown on the Patriots.

“But we decided on Pats -6.5, with the Bills off a loss and in pretty much a must-win spot at home. We figured 7 was just too much for the Pats to lay on the road. That said, every bet we’ve written so far has been on the Patriots, so don’t be surprised if this game gets to -7.”

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-3)

Atlanta had a nice four-game SU and ATS streak that included beating both participants in last year’s Super Bowl, back-to-back. But the Falcons (4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS) have come down to earth with two straight setbacks, including a 33-30 overtime loss to San Diego as a 4.5-point home chalk Sunday.

Green Bay (4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS) rebounded from its home loss to Dallas by besting Chicago 26-10 as a 7.5-point home fave in the Thursday night game.

“The Falcons are coming off back-to-back losses, but easily could have won both games outright,” Childs said. “The Packers come into this game off a solid win at home on Thursday night, so they have some added rest and prep time for this game. I personally had this game power-rated at Falcons -3.5, but the Packers always garner public support. Knowing the public will have the Pack here in this game, we opened a solid 3, and we’ve seen real nice two-way action at that number.”

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5)

Dallas has a rookie quarterback (Dak Prescott), a rookie running back (Ezekiel Elliott) – and is tied for the best record in the NFC. The Cowboys (5-1 SU and ATS) are coming off their bye week, which followed a road upset of Green Bay, 30-16 catching 5 points in Week 6.

Philadelphia (4-2 SU and ATS) halted its two-game SU and ATS skid with a 21-10 victory Sunday as a 3-point home ‘dog against previously unbeaten Minnesota.

“A monster game for both teams. If the Eagles want any chance at contending for the NFC East, they have to win this game, or else they fall a full two games behind the Cowboys,” Childs said. “The Eagles are off a very nice win at home as a 3-point ‘dog, when the entire betting world went against them. The Cowboys come into this game off a bye, but I’m not sure that helps, as they were red-hot, winning and covering five straight games.

“We opened Cowboys -4.5 and really haven’t see any early action so far, which tells me that the line is solid and won’t move much off the opener.”

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers, no line

The two contestants in last season’s NFC Championship Game have fallen far from that form. Defending NFC champ Carolina (1-5 SU and ATS) is coming off a much-needed bye week, having lost four in a row SU and ATS. That includes a 41-38 setback at New Orleans giving 2.5 points in Week 6.

Meanwhile, Arizona (3-3-1 SU, 3-4 ATS) dominated the clock and total yards against Seattle, but couldn’t put up points, settling for a 6-6 tie as a 1.5-point home favorite. Since that came in the Sunday night game, Childs said Sportsbook.ag had to hold off on posting the Cards-Panthers line until Monday.

In that NFC title tilt. Carolina rolled 49-15 laying 3 points at home.