Announcement

**Udog** · 10-18-2016, 09:45 AM

NFL opening line report: Patriots at Steelers headlines Week 7, but there's a catch

Ben Roethlisberger was diagnosed with a torn meniscus in his left knee and ruled out for Week 7 against the Patriots.

Week 7 of the NFL season includes a great AFC clash that looked like it would feature two of the best quarterbacks of this era. But that won’t happen now. We talk about a few key opening lines with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor for offshore site Sportsbook.ag.

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (no line)

Pittsburgh has looked Super Bowl-contender great in its four wins, but equally as awful in its two losses – a blowout at Philadelphia in Week 3, and Sunday’s setback at Miami. The Steelers (4-2 SU and ATS) had only eight points until late in the fourth quarter and lost to the Dolphins 30-15 laying 7.5 points.

But the bigger news came postgame. Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger injured his knee in the second quarter, but returned in the third quarter, though he didn’t play well. Afterward, he was diagnosed with a torn meniscus in his left knee and ruled out for this week’s game. He will have surgery this week, which will determine how much longer he’s out.

Meanwhile, Tom Brady’s return to action has been everything New England expected, and perhaps more. After throwing for 406 yards and three touchdowns in a rout at Cleveland, Brady was back at it Sunday, with 376 yards and three TD passes in a 35-17 dusting of Cincinnati as a 7.5-point home favorite. The Patriots are now 5-1 SU and ATS.

“Big Ben was initially listed as questionable, but is now out indefinitely,” Childs said. “The Steelers will be forced to start perennial journeyman Landry Jones, and I’m not sure we can open this line high enough. I really haven’t given the game much thought because of the Steelers’ quarterback situation, but the line will be well over a touchdown.”

New York Giants vs. Los Angeles Rams (+3)

Sunday morning will come a few hours earlier for NFL fans – 9:30 a.m. on the East Coast, and a wicked 6:30 a.m. here in Vegas. That’s when the Giants and Rams will square off for their game in London.

New York (3-3 SU, 2-3-1 ATS) got back to .500 on Sunday, thanks to the sometimes flighty Odell Beckham. The flashy wideout had eight catches for a whopping 222 yards and two TDs, including a 66-yard score that gave the Giants a 27-23 win over Baltimore as a 3.5-point home favorite.

Los Angeles (3-3 SU and ATS) has followed its three-game SU and ATS upswing by going 0-2 SU and ATS the past two weekends. On Sunday at Detroit, the Rams lost 31-28 as a 2.5-point pup.

“The Rams are going to be on the road for 10 days, having played in Detroit on Sunday, now going to travel straight to London,” Childs said. “While I believe that will help them get acclimated to the time and weather in London, that’s a long time to be away from home and family.

“This is truly a neutral-field game, and we have the Giants the higher power-rated team, so we opened them a solid 3-point favorite.”

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5)

Through six weeks, there’s only one unbeaten team left in the NFL, and it’s Minnesota. The Vikings are a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS and are coming off their bye week, following a 31-13 victory over Houston as a 6-point chalk on Oct. 9.

Meanwhile, rookie quarterback Carson Wentz and Philadelphia have cooled off from their 3-0 SU and ATS start, losing SU and ATS each of the past two weeks. The Eagles were a 3-point favorite Sunday at Washington, but lost outright 27-20.

“Man, how the mighty have fallen,” Childs said. “The Eagles were the people’s champ two weeks ago, but now after back-to-back losses, I have a feeling bettors are going to be very shy about backing this team. The Vikings are coming off a bye, playing some great, great football.

“I had this game in the pick-’em range before the Eagles took the field against the Redskins, but after that below-average performance, we decided to open Vikings -2.5, and all the early money is on them. It didn’t take us long to get to Vikings -3, our current number.”

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5)

NFC West rivals and playoff teams from last year collide in the Week 7 Sunday night game. Seattle (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) edged Atlanta 26-24 Sunday as a 7-point fave for its third consecutive SU win. Arizona (2-3 SU and ATS) still has some Week 6 work to do, hosting the New York Jets in the Monday nighter.

“A huge game and pretty much a must-win for the Cardinals if they want any chance to win their division,” Childs said. “The Cardinals play on Monday night, but we opened them a small 1.5-point home favorite, and a lot will depend how they look in their game against the Jets. The Seahawks are playing some really good football and are coming off a nice win over one of the hotter teams in the NFL.

“I have a feeling the public is going to back the Seahawks, but we’ll see.”

**Udog** · 10-18-2016, 09:46 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 7

Thursday, October 20

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CHICAGO (1 - 5) at GREEN BAY (3 - 2) - 10/20/2016, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 44-68 ATS (-30.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 102-75 ATS (+19.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, October 23

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NY GIANTS (3 - 3) vs. LA RAMS (3 - 3) - 10/23/2016, 9:30 AM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 174-216 ATS (-63.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 174-216 ATS (-63.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 80-110 ATS (-41.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 126-170 ATS (-61.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 18-34 ATS (-19.4 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 57-85 ATS (-36.5 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (5 - 0) at PHILADELPHIA (3 - 2) - 10/23/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-3 ATS (+15.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-3 ATS (+15.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ORLEANS (2 - 3) at KANSAS CITY (3 - 2) - 10/23/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 31-15 ATS (+14.5 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (4 - 2) at DETROIT (3 - 3) - 10/23/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 56-82 ATS (-34.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 127-164 ATS (-53.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CLEVELAND (0 - 6) at CINCINNATI (2 - 4) - 10/23/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 68-95 ATS (-36.5 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 36-55 ATS (-24.5 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 3-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (4 - 2) at MIAMI (2 - 4) - 10/23/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 67-95 ATS (-37.5 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 3-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 3-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (4 - 2) at JACKSONVILLE (2 - 3) - 10/23/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 42-77 ATS (-42.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 35-75 ATS (-47.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 4) at TENNESSEE (3 - 3) - 10/23/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-22 ATS (-18.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (3 - 3) at NY JETS (1 - 5) - 10/23/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN DIEGO (2 - 4) at ATLANTA (4 - 2) - 10/23/2016, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in dome games since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 44-26 ATS (+15.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
ATLANTA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (2 - 3) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 5) - 10/23/2016, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ENGLAND (5 - 1) at PITTSBURGH (4 - 2) - 10/23/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 87-59 ATS (+22.1 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 57-34 ATS (+19.6 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 65-40 ATS (+21.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 227-184 ATS (+24.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 227-184 ATS (+24.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 177-134 ATS (+29.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 108-80 ATS (+20.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 0-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (4 - 1) at ARIZONA (3 - 3) - 10/23/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 31-59 ATS (-33.9 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 39-64 ATS (-31.4 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, October 24

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HOUSTON (4 - 2) at DENVER (4 - 2) - 10/24/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 53-34 ATS (+15.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
DENVER is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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**Udog** · 10-18-2016, 09:47 AM

NFL

Week 7

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Trend Report
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Thursday, October 20

8:25 PM
CHICAGO vs. GREEN BAY
Chicago is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Green Bay is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Green Bay is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Chicago

Sunday, October 23

9:30 AM
NY GIANTS vs. LOS ANGELES
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Giants last 6 games when playing Los Angeles
NY Giants are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Los Angeles's last 18 games
Los Angeles is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing NY Giants

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing New Orleans

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. PHILADELPHIA
Minnesota is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Philadelphia is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Minnesota

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. JACKSONVILLE
Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games
Jacksonville is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
Jacksonville is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 7 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Indianapolis's last 22 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tennessee's last 9 games
Tennessee is 2-11-1 ATS in its last 14 games

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Washington's last 11 games
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 9 games on the road
Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. MIAMI
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami's last 10 games when playing at home against Buffalo
Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. NY JETS
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games
NY Jets are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing Baltimore
NY Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore

4:05 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
San Diego is 4-14 SU in its last 18 games
Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games

4:05 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Tampa Bay's last 17 games when playing San Francisco
Tampa Bay is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of San Francisco's last 17 games when playing Tampa Bay
San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

4:25 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. PITTSBURGH
New England is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
New England is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games

8:30 PM
SEATTLE vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Arizona is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Arizona's last 8 games at home

Monday, October 24

8:30 PM
HOUSTON vs. DENVER
Houston is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 9 games
Denver is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games

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**Udog** · 10-18-2016, 01:16 PM

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 7 NFL lines are going to move

Minnesota's defense is holding opponents to an NFL best 12.6 points per game and an impressive 287.6 yards per game (second in NFL).

Game to bet on now

Minnesota at Philadelphia (+2.5)

Maybe it’s time to starting taking these Vikings seriously. They’re 5-0 SU (and, more importantly, 5-0 ATS) less than two months after franchise QB Teddy Bridgewater was lost for the season after tearing up a knee in a practice. Many in the league ragged on Minnesota for giving up two high draft picks – including next year’s No. 1 – for retread Sam Bradford. But so far, so good. Bradford has a 109.7 passer rating and has thrown zero interceptions, letting the Vikings’ A-plus defense do the heavy lifting. Minnesota is holding opponents to under 13 points a game (best in the league). If they can get things done against the Eagles this Sunday, they could take complete charge of the NFC North real soon because Chicago and Detroit are up next. This could very easily be a field goal game, so giving 2.5 looks inviting.

Game to wait on

New England at Pittsburgh (+7)

It’s the Steelers’ bad luck that the schedule forces them to play their toughest opponent right after Ben Roethlisberger bangs up a knee. No. 7’s injury and meniscus surgery moved this game from close to a pick ‘em to Pittsburgh being a 7-point home dog, even though there were early-week rumblings that Roethlisberger might be able to go against the Patriots. Oddsmakers seem pretty certain that Roethlisberger will be sidelined, but on the off chance that he plays, the line could move several points in the Steelers’ direction. The Patriots have always played well in Pittsburgh, and are at close to full strength as they have been all season. Combined, the teams are 8-3 ATS.

Total to watch

Oakland at Jacksonville (48.5)

What gives with Oakland? After scoring a total of 62 points in wins over Baltimore and San Diego, the Raider offense threw up all over its cleats against the Chiefs – at home – in a statement game last Sunday. Oakland is now 1-2 at home and 3-0 (with three covers) on the road this season. Jacksonville, meanwhile, has taken advantage of a soft schedule and is back in the hunt in the weak AFC South. Given the inconsistency of Oakland’s offense and Jacksonville’s 8th-ranked defense, the under should get serious consideration here.

**Udog** · 10-18-2016, 10:40 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 7

Thurs – Oct. 20

Chicago at Green Bay, 8:25 PM ET
Chicago: 10-25 ATS in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5
Green Bay: 18-8 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49

Sun – Oct. 23

NY Giants at LA Rams, 9:30 AM ET
New York: 65-39 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins
Los Angeles: 28-55 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse

Minnesota at Philadelphia, 1:00 PM ET
Minnesota: 10-2 ATS as a favorite
Philadelphia: 46-26 UNDER in home games off a division game

New Orleans at Kansas City, 1:00 PM ET
New Orleans: 4-14 ATS in road games after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games
Kansas City: 15-5 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders

Washington at Detroit, 1:00 PM ET
Washington: 5-1 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points
Detroit: 14-29 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better

Cleveland at Cincinnati, 1:00 PM ET
Cleveland: 3-11 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread
Cincinnati: 20-7 ATS after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games

Buffalo at Miami, 1:00 PM ET
Buffalo: 6-0 ATS after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game
Miami: 4-13 ATS against conference opponents

Oakland at Jacksonville, 1:00 PM ET
Oakland: 9-2 ATS in road lined games
Jacksonville: 1-8 ATS off a non-conference game

Indianapolis at Tennessee, 1:00 PM ET
Indianapolis: 32-15 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games
Tennessee: 1-11 ATS versus division opponents

Baltimore at NY Jets, 1:00 PM ET
Baltimore: 7-0 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better
New York: 12-25 ATS off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more

San Diego at Atlanta, 4:05 PM ET
San Diego: 7-0 ATS off a division game
Atlanta: 1-9 ATS as a favorite

Tampa Bay at San Francisco, 4:05 PM ET
Tampa Bay: 18-6 ATS in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49
San Francisco: 6-16 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread

New England at Pittsburgh, 4:25 PM ET
New England: 11-3 ATS after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game
Pittsburgh: 13-5 UNDER against conference opponents

Seattle at Arizona, 8:30 PM ET
Seattle: 17-6 ATS in road games after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games
Arizona: 0-6 ATS after allowing 9 points or less last game

Mon – Oct. 24

Houston at Denver, 8:30 PM ET
Houston: 3-7 ATS off a close wins by 7 points or less over a division rival
Denver: 1-8 ATS off a division game

**Udog** · 10-18-2016, 10:43 PM

NFL Week 7 lines that make you go hmmm...

Brock Osweiler’s exit from Denver should add some extra flavor to the Houston Texans upcoming game vs. the Broncos.

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5, 40)

The Vikings are coming off a bye week, are well rested, physically sound, and riding a five-game winning streak. Philadelphia has now lost two straight after its week off. Quarterback Carson Wentz was a complete no-show against Washington and, although we do expect some sort of bounce-back game, he’ll have a tough time against a very strong Minnesota defense.

Sam Bradford is playing well enough to not lose games and has benefitted from a Viking stop unit that allowed 16 points in their opening game of the season and hasn’t allowed more than that since. Bradford isn’t throwing for big yardage but his six touchdowns and zero interceptions have kept the ship afloat as they tread through the 2016 season without Teddy Bridgewater.

Laying -2.5 at this point is a gift and there’s no foreseeable reason that money will be coming in on the home underdog by kickoff. Catch this at its lowest point and be confident in the fact that you took the better team.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (+2.5, 44)

I’ve always trashed historical results for more recent trends but the two combined can be a forceful argument. This week a hot Buffalo team travels to Miami. We get a nice kick with Miami beating an injury depleted Pittsburgh team this past weekend. Otherwise, I think this line should be -4 to -5. I’m rather shocked at the cheap price on this game.

Take away Miami’s win and you’re staring at a team that lost four of five entering the game and although the Dolphins seem to have been competitive, a closer look reveals the Seahawks started off very slow, the Patriots were without Brady, they beat Cleveland in OT (not impressive), then got beat by two upper-tier teams by a combined score of 52-24.

The Bills are hot and they don’t look to be slowing down. Not only are they carrying a four-game win streak, historically, they have been taking care of business when they play Miami. They’ve won five of the last six games the past three years. Marcel Dareus will be back soon, which only supplements a very strong Buffalo defense.

Buffalo’s is the NFL’s No. 1 rushing team that will be facing the NFL’s second-worst rushing defense. Buffalo could control the ball the entire game. I don’t see where there’s too much of a decision, especially if you can grab the -2.5 at your closest sportsbook early in the week.

San Diego Chargers at Atlanta Falcons (-6.5, 53)

I don’t like to have one game influence my decision making but I was most impressed with Atlanta’s play against Seattle. The Falcons hosts San Diego in Week 7 and was a penalty flag away from taking care of the Seahawks over the weekend.

I can’t put San Diego anywhere near the same class as Seattle and with this game at home, the differences are even more amplified. The Falcons will have something to prove this week as they not only have to look how their offense took apart Seattle’s revered defense but how they got robbed on the no-call on the game’s last play.

That all being said, the Chargers have played tough this year and lost a few doozies to date. Before their win against Denver’s tough defense, their scores totaled 65, 69, 48, 52 and 60. Similarly, Atlanta has been Over in five of its six games with the past two against the NFL’s two toughest defensive teams. The total is high for a reason and the winner of this game could come down to which team has the ball last.

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (-7.5, 40.5)

Monday’s game brings an interesting matchup between Houston at Denver (-7, 41). The Broncos slammed into two buzz saws their last two games and I’m pretty sure they will be hyped to halt that streak come kickoff. But more interestingly is the return of Brock Osweiler.

Osweiler’s exit from Denver should add some extra flavor to the Broncos game. The vaunted Denver defense will come up big here for sure. Not that Osweiler is lighting up NFL defenses (8 TDs, 8 INTs) with a QB rating of 74, but the incentive here isn’t the player leaving the team, it’s the team that was left behind.

This is Houston’s third away game against top-tier teams and its results have been a 27-0 loss at New England and a 31-13 loss at Minnesota. Let’s not read into the tea leaves any more than we have to. This line may hit -9 before it gets started, so grab this early in the week. Throw out statistics and records, the situation calls for a big Denver win at home. Not much to see here. Keep walking to the cashier’s cage.

**Udog** · 10-20-2016, 06:00 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 7

The Jets have forced just three turnovers in six games while coughing up the ball an unfathomable 15 times - good for a -12 differential that is easily the worst in the league.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (+3, 44)

Bills' red-zone D vs. Dolphins' touchdown woes

The Buffalo Bills have been one of the more impressive teams over the last month, rattling off four consecutive victories while entering Week 7 action tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers for the best touchdown differential in the league (+12). But it's the Buffalo defense that has been the real strength of the team, making it a modest favorite entering a divisional showdown with a Miami Dolphins team coming off an impressive win over visiting Pittsburgh.

The Bills have been their stoutest deep in their own territory, allowing foes to convert red-zone visits into touchdowns just 33.3 percent of the time - the best rate in the NFL, and well ahead of the 60-percent rate opponents scored red-zone TDs a season ago. Buffalo has allowed red-zone TDs just 14.3 percent of the time over its last three games, a major reason why the Bills are in the hunt for the AFC East lead despite opening the season with two straight losses.

They shouldn't face much red-zone resistance Sunday against the Dolphins, who rank a distant 26th in turning red-zone visits into touchdowns (47.1 percent); that rate dips to 37.5 percent over the last three. Settling for field goals over touchdowns could ultimately leave the Dolphins short on the scoreboard against a Buffalo defense that has overcome injury and a slow start to become one of the top units in the league.

Daily fantasy fade: WR Jarvis Landry

Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets (-1, 41.5)

Ravens' ball hawks vs. Jets' turnover problems

The Baltimore Ravens' defense is no longer the feared unit it was when linebacker Ray Lewis was patrolling the field. But while the 2015 edition of the Ravens D left fans wanting, this year's incarnation appears to be much better - at least where turnovers are concerned. Baltimore has bruised the opposition into coughing up the ball, and is looking at a sensational matchup in that regard Sunday afternoon against the turnover-prone New York Jets.

The 3-3 Ravens are riding a three-game losing skid into this week's encounter, but they probably deserved a better fate last time out as they dropped a 27-23 decision to the New York Giants despite forcing three turnovers. Baltimore ranks tied for fifth in average takeaways per game (1.8), and they're at +3 in turnover differential for the season - a significant improvement from 2015, when their -14 differential for the season ranked second-last in the league.

The Jets know how that goes; they've forced just three turnovers in six games while coughing up the ball an unfathomable 15 times - good for a -12 turnover differential that is easily the worst in the league. Ryan Fitzpatrick's six interceptions in a Sept. 25 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs certainly didn't help, but it's hardly the only major transgression - and now they have Geno Smith as their starting pivot. Look for Baltimore to hound the Jets into multiple turnovers, and to turn those free possessions into points.

Daily fantasy watch: Ravens D/ST

Washington Redskins at Detroit Lions (-1, 48.5)

Redskins' pitiful punting vs. Lions' league-leading leg

Both the Washington Redskins and the Detroit Lions should put their passing prowesses on display in what is expected to be one of the highest-scoring games of the week. But should these offenses struggle and be forced to play the field-position game, the Lions should find themselves with a significant advantage - and that could mean the difference between climbing back above .500 and scrambling to remain in the playoff hunt.

Punter Sam Martin has been a revelation for the Lions so far this season, leading the league in net yards per attempt (47.0) by nearly 1.5 yards over runner-up Thomas Morestead. He has pinned opponents inside the 20-yard line on 10 occasions - just outside the top-10 at his position, despite having fewer punt attempts than everyone ahead of him on the list. Simply put, he has helped the Lions dominate field position even when the offense isn't clicking.

The Redskins haven't been nearly as fortunate, which could be their undoing this weekend. Washington ranks fifth from the bottom in net yards per punt (37.3), with Tress way averaging a mediocre 44.6 gross yards per attempt. At nearly 10 fewer yards per punt attempt than the Lions, the Redskins are clearly better off converting their chances rather than getting into a kicking game with one of the best in the business in Martin.

Daily fantasy watch: Lions D/ST

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-2, 43.5)

Seahawks' stingy pass D vs. Cardinals' limp aerial assault

They may not be able to pull off the "Legion of Boom" monicker of years past, but the Seattle Seahawks still have a defense to be respected. Coming off a thrilling come-from-behind win over the visiting Atlanta Hawks, the Seahawks set their sights on Arizona in a divisional showdown with a Cardinals team that cruised past the New York Jets, but is still struggling to find consistency in the passing game - a weakness that could sink them on Sunday.

Despite getting torched by Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan in Week 6, the Seahawks come into this one having allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards per game (209.0) and only four passing touchdowns on the year - three of which came courtesy of Ryan. The opposing quarterback rating of 74.9 is the fourth-lowest in football, and is slightly better than the 79.6 rating opposing QBs posted against the Seahawks in 2015.

The Cardinals have been even stingier against opposing signal callers - allowing a minuscule 65.8 passer rating - but it's the Arizona offense that will be under the microscope this week. Arizona's 77.2 passer rating, compiled by Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton, ranks ahead of only four other teams - and it's miles below the 96.5 rating the Cardinals boasted last season. Look for Palmer to have difficulty moving the chains against a Seattle defensive unit that remains one of the most imposing in football.

Daily fantasy fade: WR Larry Fitzgerald

**Udog** · 10-20-2016, 06:08 AM

NFL

Thursday, October 20

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NFL Thursday Night Football betting preview: Bears at Packers
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Former two-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers hasn't struggled in his last four encounters with Chicago, throwing 14 touchdowns against one interception for a 127.0 passer rating.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-7.5, 46)

While there are many questions surrounding Aaron Rodgers' performance this season, the Green Bay Packers have a bigger issue on their hands heading into Thursday's home game against the Chicago Bears: health. Running back Eddie Lacy is nursing an ankle injury in a backfield that could be reduced to undrafted rookie practice squad member Don Jackson and newcomer Knile Davis, who was acquired from Kansas City for a conditional draft pick on Tuesday.

"It's part of the NFL landscape, and it's obviously a big challenge when you're on a short week," Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy said of Davis' task to hit the ground running. "But he's definitely a talented young player." McCarthy used wideout Ty Montgomery out of the backfield in Sunday's 30-16 loss to Dallas, with Rodgers overthrowing an open Randall Cobb in the end zone to underscore his issues with accuracy. Former two-time NFL MVP Rodgers hasn't struggled in his last four encounters with Chicago, throwing 14 touchdowns against one interception for a 127.0 passer rating. While Rodgers feels the Packers are "close" to righting the ship, the Bears are sinking despite rookie running back Jordan Howard rolling up 335 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns in his first three career starts.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The Packers opened as big 9-point home favorites over their NFC North rivals from down the road in Chicago. On Tuesday that -9 was dropped all the way down to -7.5 after news that Green Bay running back Eddie Lacy will likely be unavailable for Thursday's game. The total hit the board at 47 and was dropped a single point to 46. View complete line history here.

WEATHER REPORT: Partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-40's are in the forecast for Thursday night in Green Bay. Wind will not be a factor at 2-3 mph and it should be a perfect October night for football.

INJURIES:

Bears - LB L. Floyd (Prob Thurs, calf), LB J. Freeman (Prob Thurs, wrist), TE Z. Miller (Prob Thurs, ribs), RB K. Carey (Prob Thurs, hamstring), LB S. Acho (Ques Thurs, personal), CB T. Porter (Ques Thurs, knee), CB B. Callahan (Ques Thurs, hamstring), QB J. Cutler (Doub Thurs, thumb), NT E. Goldman (Doub Thurs, ankle), CB D. Hall (Early Nov, ankle), WR E. Royal (Out Thurs, toe), G J. Sitton (Early Nov, ankle), RB J. Langford (Early Nov, ankle), LB P. McPhee (Ques Thurs, knee), LB R. Robertson-Harris (Ques Thurs, illness), WR K. White (Elig Week 13, leg), LB L. Houston (I-R, knee), WR M. Wilson (Elig Week 8, foot), LB L. Barrow (I-R, foot), OL N. Becton (I-R, shoulder), DL E. Ferguson (I-R, shoulder), LB D. Mason (I-R, undisclosed), OL H. Grasu (I-R, knee), QB C. Shaw (I-R, leg), DB B. Boykin (I-R, undisclosed).

Packers - T B. Bulaga (Prob Thurs, back), WR R. Cobb (Prob Thurs, back), WR J. Abbrederis (Prob Thurs, thigh), RB K. Davis (Ques Thurs, concussion), S C. Banjo (Doub Thurs, hamstring), WR D. Adams (Doub Thurs, concussion), CB D. Randall (Out Thurs, groin), CB Q. Rollins (Out Thurs, groin), RB E. Lacy (Out Indefinitely, ankle), RB J. Starks (Mid Nov, knee), TE J. Cook (Early Nov, ankle), C C. Linsley (Doub Thurs, hamstring), CB S. Shields (Elig Week 15, concussion), DT T. Kuder (I-R, undisclosed), CB M. Dorleant (I-R, undisclosed), RB J. Crockett (I-R, shoulder).

ABOUT THE BEARS (1-5 SU, 1-5 ATS, 3-3 O/U): Brian Hoyer is the first quarterback in team history to record four consecutive 300-yard passing games and looks to exploit a Green Bay secondary that could be without three of its top cornerbacks -- Sam Shields (concussion, injured reserve), Damarious Randall (groin) and Quinten Rollins (groin). Cameron Meredith reeled in 11 receptions for 113 yards in a 17-16 loss to Jacksonville on Sunday and fellow wideout Alshon Jeffery added 93 yards receiving for the Bears, who are seventh in total offense and fourth in passing offense. Veteran Eddie Royal (toe) missed Tuesday's practice while tight end Zach Miller (team-leading 31 receptions) is nursing bruised ribs.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (3-2 SU, 2-2-1 ATS, 2-3 O/U): Wideout Jordy Nelson failed to reach the end zone for the first time this season on Sunday and has just 106 yards receiving over his last two games, but is averaging 140.3 yards in his last three meetings with Chicago. Fellow wideout Cobb reeled in a touchdown reception last week and has six scores in his past five games versus the Bears. Montgomery collected a career-high 10 receptions last week and could see plenty of action given the Packers' backfield woes and the expected absence of wide receiver Davante Adams (concussion).

TRENDS:

* Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Packers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Over is 4-1 in Bears last 5 road games.
* Under is 8-1 in Packers last 9 home games.
* Bears are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 56 percent of picks are on the Packers to cover at home while 56 percent of totals wagers are on the Over.

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**Udog** · 10-20-2016, 06:09 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 7

Thursday's game
Bears (1-5) @ Packers (3-2)— Red flag for Packers; five games, only two second half TDs, as Rodgers missed several open receivers in LW’s one-sided loss to Dallas- Pack has been outscored 53-32 in 2nd half this year. 4th straight home game for Green Bay; they’re 0-2-1 as home favorites, with both home wins by 7 points. Chicago blew 13-0 4th quarter lead in home loss to Jags LW; Bears had only one TD in four trips to red zone. Bears are 0-3 as road underdogs this year, losing away games by 9-14-6 points. Green Bay won 10 of last 12 series games, but Bears won two of last three visits here, in rivalry where home side lost six of last seven series games. Five of last six series totals were 47+. NFL-wide, home favorites are 4-11 vs spread in divisional games this year.

**Udog** · 10-20-2016, 06:36 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Some football trends to consider for Week 7………

— Chicago is 7-17-1 vs spread in last 25 NFC North games.

— Falcons covered seven of their last nine games.

— Patriots are 5-13 vs spread in last 18 games as a road favorite.

— Houston is 10-4-1 vs spread in its last fifteen games.

— Oakland covered its last six road games.

— Seattle is 10-5 vs spread in last fifteen NFC West games.

**********

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: NFL’s top 10 and bottom 3……

32) Browns— Jimmy Haslam owns the Browns; apparently his brother Bill is the governor of Tennessee. Wonder if they bet on last week’s game with the Titans and if so, did the governor give his brother seven points?

31) 49ers— San Francisco has allowed 42 pts/game in losing all three road games- they’ve been outscored 54-17 in second half of their last two games.

30) Jets— Geno Smith gets the nod under center for Gang Green this week; not sure why they have four QB’s, two who have never played in the NFL, but they do. Short week this week for their game with the Ravens.

10) Steelers— Ready to drop them out of top 10 until Big Ben returns, but there isn’t anyone better to put ahead of them this week. Landry Jones has started two NFL games but didn’t last long in the one Steelers won.

9) Raiders— Why are they getting points in Jacksonville this week? They’re 3-0 on the road.

8) Bills— So much for trying to have balance on offense. Rex Ryan wanted them to run the ball more, so he fired the OC and told the new guy to run it more, which they have, and very well.

7) Redskins— Jay Gruden was a head coach for 162 games in the Arena League and UFL before he got his chance in the NFL— he’s a really good coach who paid his dues.

6) Broncos— Not sold on either of their QBs, but their defense is really good and they’re still the defending champs.

5) Seahawks— They’ve slipped some but with 14 rookies and a veteran core, expect them to play better as the season rolls along.

4) Cowboys— Why would you replace Dak Prescott? Dallas won their last five games, they won easily at Green Bay, Cowboys have it rolling. Don’t mess with a winning streak.

3) Falcons— Was just as impressed with them in their loss in Seattle as I was by their wins. Atlanta gained 269 yards IN THE THIRD QUARTER at Seattle last week.

2) Patriots— Wonder if Microsoft stock will take a hit now that Belichick has disowned the tablets teams use on the sideline.

1) Vikings— Sam Bradford went thru training camp with the Eagles, now he goes back to Philly in Week 7 as the starting QB of the hottest team in the league.

**Udog** · 10-22-2016, 10:28 PM

NFL Underdogs: Week 7 pointspread picks and predictions

Even though they travel from west to east for an early Sunday start, Andrew Caley likes their chances against Jacksonville.

Coming back from a vacation is never fun, especially when you cross several time zones and are returning to a colder climate from a warmer one.

For those who read this column weekly, you know I was in San Diego last week watching the Chargers and I’ll be honest, I very much enjoyed West Coast living. There were warm sunny skies every day, tons of craft beer, and more fish tacos than I could imagine.

But the best part was sports earlier in the day. Waking up with a coffee and football, Thursday nighters over early enough that you're able to do something afterwards and still go to bed at a decent hour. It was awesome.

However, nothing is worse than traveling west to east. You essentially lose a whole day in transit and the time change does a number on your body.

That being said, I think the Oakland Raiders have what it takes to deal with those conditions.

They fly across the country to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 8 and they're comparable teams in many ways. Both led by young franchise quarterbacks, both dark-horse candidates heading into the season. But, it’s the Raiders who have the feel of a team ready to make the next step. Oakland boasts one of the most balanced and dynamic offenses in the NFL, led by quarterback Derek Carr.

The third-year signal caller out of Fresno State has been fantastic, throwing for 1,608 yards on 67 percent passing with 12 touchdowns and three interceptions.

Amari Cooper has hauled in a big chunk of those yards and ranks fourth in the NFL with 585 yards on 36 receptions. To make matters worse for the Jags, the Raiders get starting running back Latavius Murray back. He missed the last two games with a toe injury.

At the same time, Jacksonville’s offense has not met its potential, to say the least.

Blake Bortles ranks 26th in passer rating and the team ranks 29th in total yards per game. Bortles has also failed to find the chemistry with Allen Robinson, connecting on just 24 of 47 targets for 287 yards.

I know the Jaguars have a Top 5 defense, but I like the Raiders in this spot. Plus, they’re 6-0 ATS in their last six games away from home, with three of those games in the Eastern Time Zone.

Pick: Raiders +1.5

Baltimore Ravens (+2) at New York Jets

No big travel for the Ravens this week, but they could make the Jets want to take a little vacation of their own.

I was weary to pick this game at first due to Joe Flacco’s shoulder injury, but he practiced in full before the weekend and should be able to take advantage of the Jets’ 28th ranked pass defense.

The big thing here is the dumpster fire also known as the Jets' offense.

New York is mercifully taking out Ryan Fitzpatrick and his 11 interceptions, but replaces him with Geno Smith. The Jets rank dead last in the NFL at 15.8 points per game, they've lost Eric Decker for the season, and can’t get their run game rolling. Oh, and Smith’s first assignment has him going up against the sixth-ranked Baltimore defense that is second in the NFL in interceptions with eight.

So this may be more about fading the Jets than picking the Ravens.

Pick: Ravens +2

San Diego Chargers (+6) at Atlanta Falcons

Both the Chargers and the Falcons went west to east this week, with San Diego traveling to Atlanta and Atlanta coming home from taking on the Seahawks in Seattle last week.

Now, I don’t know if I’m riding high on the Chargers after seeing their big Thursday Night Football win in person last week, or I am just expecting them to get a nice lead only to cough it up at the end.

Either way I think that means the Chargers cover the 6 points. That, and they’re 8-1 ATS in their last eight road games.

Pick: Chargers +6

Last week: 2-1 ATS
Season: 11-7 ATS (61%)

**Udog** · 10-22-2016, 10:36 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 7

Sunday's games
Giants (3-3) vs Rams (3-3) (London)— Injuries to Rams’ DB’s (especially Johnson), leave them vulnerable here against WR Beckham, who caught 8 balls for 222 yards, two TDs in comeback win over Ravens last week. Detroit averaged 8.3 yards/pass attempt, scored four TDs on seven drives vs Rams LW. Keenum was 27-32/321 in Detroit, but on last two drives, was 1-4 with an INT that ended game, much like Buffalo game when he threw pick-6 in tie game late in third quarter. Gurley carried 14 times for 58 yards, but had 14 on first carry of game- they have to get him more involved. Giants won last six games against the Rams, five by 10+ points; Rams’ last series win was in 2001. NFC West teams are 4-8 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC East teams are 10-4.

Vikings (5-0) @ Eagles (3-2)— Sam Bradford returns to Philly here; Eagles traded him this summer after Bridgewater’s knee injury in August. Minnesota is on 18-2 spread run, 5-0 this year, but they’re 1-5 in last six post-bye games. Vikings won 25-16/22-10 in road games this year; they’re 3-1 as road favorites under Zimmer. Eagles lost post-bye games to Lions/Redskins after 3-0 start; they’re 2-0 at home this year, beating Browns/Steelers by 14-31 points. Philly is 1-8 in its last nine games as a home underdog, 1-0 this year. Vikings’ 24-14 win here in 2010 (their last visit) snapped a 6-game skid in Philly. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 3-6 vs spread; NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 5-2. How often does a team face a QB who was in their training camp all summer?

Saints (2-3) @ Chiefs (3-2)— New Orleans won its last two games but allowed 72 points in doing so; Chiefs are 3-0 this season scoring 24+ points. Four of five Saint games this year were decided by 3 or less points; they’re 7-3-1 in last 11 games as road underdog, 2-0 this season. Since 2008, KC is 14-24 as a home favorite, 1-1 this year. Seven of Chiefs’ 10 TDs this year came on drives of 62 or less yards- they’ve got only two TD drives of 75+ yards, and 25 is usual starting point for most drives, with new kickoff rules. Home side lost five of last seven series games; Saints won three of last four visits here. NFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 5-1 vs spread this season; AFC West teams are 9-6 outside the division. Reid is 12-4 vs spread in last 16 post-bye games, but is 5-10 vs spread in second week off those byes.

Redskins (4-2) @ Lions (3-3)— Washington won its last four games, Detroit its last two; Lions’ three home games were decided by total of five points. Redskins are 2-0 on road this year, with SU wins at Giants (29-27, +4), Ravens (16-10, +4). Underdogs are 6-0 vs spread in Detroit games this year; Lions are 8-4-2 as home favorites under Caldwell, 0-2 this year. Detroit won last three series games; Redskins lost 19-14/37-25 in last two visits here. Washington is 7-8 under Gruden in games with spread of 3 or less points (1-2 this year); favorites are 13-5-2 in Lions’ last 20 games where spread was 3 or less. NFC North teams are 7-9 vs spread outside their division; NFC East road teams are 4-2 outside the division. Over is 5-1 in Washington games 4-2 in Detroit games this year.

Browns (0-6) @ Bengals (2-4)— Cincy lost four of last five games, giving up 63 points in last two games, losses at Dallas (28-14), Foxboro (35-17), but those are two of best teams in NFL so far. Bengals are 0-4 if they allow more than six yards/pass attempt, 2-0 if they allow less. Browns have been over 6.0 in spa in four of last five games. Cincy is 11-4 in last 15 games in this in-state rivalry; they outscored Cleveland 68-13 in two meetings LY, outscoring them 34-0 in second half. Browns lost six of last seven visits here. 0-6 Cleveland is 2-2 as a road dog, losing on foreign soil by 19-6-11-2 points- this is their fifth road game in seven weeks- they’re 10-8-1 in last 19 games as a road dog. Bengals are 13-7-1 in their last 21 games as a home favorite, 1-1 this season.

Bills (4-2) @ Dolphins (2-4)— Buffalo is 4-0 since switching OCs and running ball more; they ran for 312 yards in win over 49ers LW, are averaging 211.8 RY/game since the change in OC. Bills are 7-5-1 in last 13 games as a road favorite, 1-0 this year- they outscored last three foes 45-9 in second half. Dolphins ran ball for 222 yards LW, after averaging 72.4 in first five games; since 2012, they’re 8-4-1 as home dogs. Bills won five of last six games with Miami, with four of five wins by 16+ points- they ran ball for 417 yards in 41-14/33-17 wins over Dolphins LY. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 9-2 vs spread in divisional games. Miami is 4-10 in last 14 games where spread was 3 or less points (0-0 this year); Buffalo is 15-12-1 in last 28 games with spread of 3 or less points. Bills’ best RB McCoy (hamstring) is out for this game.

Raiders (4-2) @ Jaguars (2-3)— Jax came back from dead in Chicago LW; they trailed 13-0 in 4th quarter, rallied for 17-16 win, their second win in row after an 0-3 start. Jaguars are 0-2 at home this year, with two losses by total of six points; they’re 6-10 under Bradley in games with spread of 3 or less points- they’re 9-4 in last 13 games as a home favorite, but that goes back six years. Underdogs are 5-1 vs spread in Oakland’s first six games; they’re 3-0 SU on road, all as an underdog- they’re 8-1 as road underdogs under Del Rio. Raiders are 4-6 under Del Rio in games with spread of 3 or less. Home side won last four series games; Raiders lost 49-11/38-31 in last two visits here. AFC South teams are 9-8 vs spread outside the division; AFC West teams are 9-6.

Colts (2-4) @ Titans (3-3)— Indy led 23-9 with 4:00 left at Houston LW, lost in OT, tough game to bounce back from; they’re 0-2 on road this year, losing 34-20 (+6) at Denver, 26-23 in OT at Houston (+3). Colts are 8-7-1 in last 16 games as a road underdog; they won last nine games with Tennessee, winning last four visits here, by 6-3-17-2 points- six of last eight series games were won by 8 or less points. Titans ran ball for 372 yards in winning last two games to even its record; Tennessee is 1-2 SU at home, with only win over 0-6 Browns- they’re 2-8-1 in last 11 games as a home favorite. Tennessee is 5-14-3 in last 22 games with spread of 3 or less points. Indy is 10-11 in last 21 games with spread of 3 or less. NFL-wide, home favorites are 4-11 vs spread in divisional games this season.

Ravens (3-3) @ Jets (1-5)— Ravens lost last three games after an 0-3 start; all six of their games were decided by six or less points. Baltimore is in Swamp Stadium for second week in row after losing to Giants 27-23 in last 2:00 LW- they had scored with 2:04 left to take lead. Jets were inept Monday night; Fitzpatrick has now thrown 10 INTs, no TDs in second half of games this year- will they switch to Smith at QB? Home crowd won’t be much help for Jets unless they get off to fast start. Baltimore won last eight series games, winning last three here by 1-3-14 points- last visit against Jets here was in 2010. NFC North non-divisional road teams are 4-8 vs spread. AFC East home teams are 6-3. Jets have been outscored 51-7 in second half of their last four games. Flacco didn’t practice Wed/Thurs (check status). His backup is former Pats/Texans QB Ryan Mallett.

Buccaneers (2-3) @ 49ers (1-5)— Tampa Bay averaged just 86.6 rushing yards/game in their 2-3 start, but both wins came on road, in Atlanta/Carolina. Bucs are road favorite for first time since 2013; since ’07 they’re 3-5-1 as road faves. Tampa is 3-8 in last 11 games where spread was 3 or less points. 49ers lost last five games, giving up 312 rushing yards in 45-16 loss at Buffalo LW. Niners are 13-8-3 in last 24 games with spread of 3 or less- they’re 17-5 in series, winning four of last five. Buccaneers are 2-12 here, losing last visit 48-3 five years ago. Tampa Bay lost four of last five post-bye games; NFC South non-divisional favorites are 1-4 vs spread; NFC West home teams are 1-5. Three of Bucs’ last four games stayed under total; four of 49ers’ last five games went over.

Chargers (2-4) @ Falcons (4-2)— San Diego had three extra days to rest/prep after beating the Broncos last Thursday. Chargers have frittered away games at the end; all four of their losses are by 4 or less points, or in OT- they’re 20-9-1 vs spread in last 30 games as a road underdog, and have yet to trail (5-0-1) at half this season. Atlanta gained 269 yards just in the third quarter in Seattle LW, losing 26-24 in last 2:00. Falcons won eight of nine meetings with Bolts, who are 1-2 in Atlanta but haven’t been here since ’04. Six of last seven series totals were 38 or less. San Diego allowed 26+ points in four losses, 14-13 in wins; Atlanta is scoring 33.2 pts/game- they were held to 24 in both losses. Over is 4-2 in Charger games, 5-1 in Falcon games. NFC South favorites are 1-4 vs spread in non-divisional games. AFC West underdogs are 5-3.

Patriots (5-1) @ Steelers (4-2)— Roethlisberger (knee) is out here; Landry Jones (1-1 as starter), gets nod here— he didn’t last too long (4 passes) in the one win (vs Browns). New England won 33-13/35-17 in Brady’s first two games this year; NE is 5-12 in last 17 games as a road favorite, 1-0 this year. Patriots won six of last eight games vs Steelers, winning three of last four visits here. Average total in last ten series games is 50.7. Pittsburgh is 7-22 on third down in their two losses, 27-52 in their wins; their defense has zero takeaways in last two games (-3). AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 2-5 vs spread. Since ’04, Steelers are 12-5 vs spread in game following a game when Pitt lost as a favorite. Four of last five Patriot games stayed under total; four of six Steeler games also stayed under.

Seahawks (4-1) @ Cardinals (3-3)— Seattle won its last three games since 9-3 loss in LA;, scoring 10 TDs on 32 drives after scoring one TD in 22 drives in first two games- they rallied back for 26-24 win over Falcons LW, after giving up 269 yards in third quarter alone to Atlanta. Short week for Redbirds after they waxed Jets 28-3 Monday; Arizona is +9 in turnovers in its three wins, -6 in its three losses (they were +2 in loss to NE). Cards are 15-3-1 under Arians in games where spread was 3 or less points; Seattle is 7-3-2 in last 12 such games. Cardinals are 5-4 in last nine series games, 3-2 in last five played here; Cardinals swept Seattle 39-32/36-6 LY, their first series sweep of Seahawks since 2009. Under is 4-2 in Arizona games; last three Seattle games went over the total.

Monday's game
Texans (4-2) @ Broncos (4-2)— Osweiler returns to Mile High City after bolting for Houston in free agency last winter; he rallied his new team back from down 23-9 with 4:00 left for dramatic win Sunday night, but Houston is 0-2 on road, losing 27-0 in Foxboro, 31-13 in Minnesota (Texans have one TD on 21 drives on road). Kubiak returns to sideline for Denver to face his former team; Broncos are 3-2 in last five series games, with average total of 48.2. Broncos lost last two games after 4-0 start, scoring two TDs on 24 drives after scoring 11 TDs on 41 drives in first four games. Home side won/covered all five Houston games this year; they lost 27-0/31-13 in ugly losses at Foxboro/Minnesota, but those might be two best teams in NFL. Last three Denver games stayed under the total; last three Houston games went over.

**Udog** · 10-22-2016, 10:39 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 7

Sunday, October 23

Seattle @ Arizona

Game 475-476
October 23, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
135.563
Arizona
140.135
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 4 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 1 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(-1 1/2); Under

New England @ Pittsburgh

Game 473-474
October 23, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
142.812
Pittsburgh
133.960
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 9
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 7
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-7); Over

Tampa Bay @ San Francisco

Game 471-472
October 23, 2016 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
125.932
San Francisco
127.358
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 1 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 2 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+2 1/2); Under

San Diego @ Atlanta

Game 469-470
October 23, 2016 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Diego
135.639
Atlanta
134.232
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 1 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 7
54
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(+7); Under

Baltimore @ NY Jets

Game 467-468
October 23, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
127.858
NY Jets
125.462
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 2 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Jets
by 1
40 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(+1); Over

Indianapolis @ Tennessee

Game 465-466
October 23, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
126.084
Tennessee
130.949
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 5
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 2 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(-2 1/2); Under

Oakland @ Jacksonville

Game 463-464
October 23, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
130.404
Jacksonville
127.468
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 3
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Jacksonville
by 1 1/2
49
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(+1 1/2); Under

Buffalo @ Miami

Game 461-462
October 23, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
133.521
Miami
132.278
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 1 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+3); Under

Cleveland @ Cincinnati

Game 459-460
October 23, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
122.142
Cincinnati
133.996
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 12
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 9 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(-9 1/2); Over

Washington @ Detroit

Game 457-458
October 23, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
133.278
Detroit
131.425
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 1 1/2
49
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+1 1/2); Over

New Orleans @ Kansas City

Game 455-456
October 23, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
128.349
Kansas City
139.178
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 11
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 6 1/2
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-6 1/2); Under

Minnesota @ Philadelphia

Game 453-454
October 23, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
141.519
Philadelphia
135.399
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 6
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 2 1/2
40
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-2 1/2); Under

NY Giants @ Los Angeles

Game 451-452
October 23, 2016 @ 9:30 am

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
129.094
Los Angeles
130.588
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Los Angeles
by 1 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Giants
by 3
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Los Angeles
(+3); Over

Monday, October 24

Houston @ Denver

Game 477-478
October 24, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
131.621
Denver
136.874
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 5
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 7 1/2
40 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+7 1/2); Over

**Udog** · 10-23-2016, 08:21 AM

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six most popular picks in Week 7 of the Westgate Super Contest:

Minnesota Vikings (751) -2.5

San Diego Chargers (599) +6.5

Tennessee Titans (562) -2.5

New England Patriots (506) -7

Miami Dolphins (489) +3

Oakland Raiders (413) +1

Season record: 11-24-1

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 7 (Thursday, October 20 - Monday, October 24)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 7 (Thursday, October 20 - Monday, October 24)

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