CFL Trends and Indexes - Week 16 (Fri., October 7 - Mon., October 10)

[Udog]

Trends and Indexes

Friday, October 7 - Monday, October 10

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

CFL Betting Notes - Week 16

Last week’s CFL action started out with Edmonton’s 40-26 victory against Winnipeg as a three-point road favorite to improve its playoff position in the West Division.

In the first of two Saturday games, Calgary extended its straight-up winning streak to 11 games with a 36-17 win on the road against Hamilton as a 2 ½-point favorite.

Later that day, British Columbia outpaced Ottawa 40-33 as a five-point favorite at home to move into second place in the West.

Sunday’s lone contest was a stunning 38-11 Montreal victory over Toronto as a three-point home favorite to snap a SU four-game losing streak.

Friday, Oct. 7

Saskatchewan Roughriders (3-10, 7-6 ATS) vs. Ottawa RedBlacks (6-6-1 SU, 5-8 ATS)
Point-spread: Ottawa -6 ½
Total: 53 ½

Game Overview

The Roughriders went into last week bye riding a SU two-game winning streak and following a tight 20-18 victory against Hamilton in Week 14 as 5 ½-point home favorites, they have now covered against the spread in their last five games. This late-season burst has been fueled by a defense that has given up an average of 19.3 points in its last three games as opposed to a season average of 31.2 points allowed.

Ottawa has just two SU wins it its last six games and this past Saturday’s setback to BC dropped the RedBlacks to 2-7 ATS in their last nine games. The total went OVER 53 against the Lions after staying UNDER in five of their previous seven contests. Trevor Harris put the ball up 45 times in the losing effort and he completed 32 passes for 485 yards and two touchdowns, but the RedBlacks’ defense was torched for 461 yards of total offense.

Betting Trends

Saskatchewan has a slight 3-2 SU edge in the last five meetings after beating Ottawa 30-29 on July 22 as a six-point underdog at home. The total went OVER 54 in that game and it has gone OVER in four of the five games.


Saturday, Oct. 8

British Columbia Lions (9-4 SU, 10-3 ATS) vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers (8-6 SU, 7-6-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Winnipeg -1 ½
Total: 55 ½

Game Overview

The Lions have won five of seven road games this season SU and they are 6-1 ATS on the road. Jonathan Jennings’s 348 yards passing against Ottawa last week raised his season total to 3,656 yards, which is the third-most in the CFL. He also tossed three touchdowns to move into third place on that list as well with 18 scoring strikes on the year. Anthony Allen paced the running game last week with 82 yards on 12 carries.

Winnipeg’s impressive seven-game SU winning streak has now turned into a two-game skid with back-to-back losses to Calgary on the road and to Edmonton at home. The total went OVER in both of those games and it has now gone OVER in six of the Blue Bombers’ last seven games. The defense has now allowed an average of 35 points in their last three games after giving up just 104 total points in the first six games of that winning streak.

Betting Trends

This will be the first meeting this season and Winnipeg comes in with the SU 3-2 edge in the last five games while going 3-1-1 ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in six of the last nine meetings in this West Division clash.


Monday, Oct. 10

Edmonton Eskimos (7-7SU, 5-8-1 ATS) vs. Montreal Alouettes (4-9 SU, 5-8 ATS)
Point-spread: Edmonton -3 ½
Total: 52 ½

Game Overview

The Eskimos have been able to climb back to .500 with a better effort on defense over their last three games. After holding Winnipeg to 26 points in last Friday’s win, this unit is still allowing an average of 28.6 points a game to go along with an offense that has basically matched that scoring average through 14 games. Mike Reilly added 355 passing yards to his CFL-high 4,708 yards on the year and John White added 104 yards on the ground to help pace last week’s much-needed win.

Montreal finally showed some signs on life on an offense that is averaging 22.1 points through 13 games. Cato Rakeem only put the ball up 23 times in Sunday’s win, but four of his 18 completions made their way into the end zone. The Alouettes also got a big effort on the ground behind Tyrell Sutton’s 83 yards on just 10 carries. All told, this offense gained 139 yards on 20 rushing attempts against Toronto.

Betting Trends

Edmonton failed to cover as a seven-point home favorite in early August in its 23-12 victory against Montreal in the first meeting this season. The total stayed under the closing 51 ½-point line in that game after going OVER in five of the previous six meetings in this inter-division tilt.

Calgary Stampeders (12-1-1 SU, 11-3 ATS) vs. Toronto Argonauts (5-9 SU, 5-9 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary -7 ½
Total: 54

Game Overview

There has been no stopping the Stampeders during this extended winning streak. Led by quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell with 293 passing yards and two touchdown throws, they opened up a 22-9 lead at halftime against Hamilton last week and cruised from there. DaVaris Daniels was the biggest target in the passing games with five receptions for 123 yards and two scores and Jerome Messam added 59 yards on the ground. He continues to lead the league in rushing with 869 yards.

Toronto has watched its season completely slip away following a SU 4-2 start with just one SU win in its last eight games. It has also failed to cover in seven of those eight losses with the total going OVER or ending as a PUSH seven times as well. In Sunday’s loss, the Argonauts gave up 14 points on turnovers in a game that was never really close. Drew Willy made his first start at quarterback and while he did complete 68.6 percent of his 35 attempts he also turned the ball over twice.

Betting Trends

Calgary has dominated this matchup in recent years with five SU wins in six games, but the series is tied at 3-3 ATS. This will be the first meeting this season and the total has stayed UNDER in four of the previous six games between these two inter-division foes.

[Udog]

CFL
Long Sheet

Week 16

Friday, October 7

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SASKATCHEWAN (3 - 10) at OTTAWA (6 - 6 - 1) - 10/7/2016, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
OTTAWA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 77-53 ATS (+18.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 126-91 ATS (+25.9 Units) as an underdog since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
OTTAWA is 3-2 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-2 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, October 8

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BRITISH COLUMBIA (9 - 4) at WINNIPEG (8 - 6) - 10/8/2016, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all games this season.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 91-62 ATS (+22.8 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 3-2 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 3-2 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, October 10

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EDMONTON (7 - 7) at MONTREAL (4 - 9) - 10/10/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 35-56 ATS (-26.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1996.
MONTREAL is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) in home games in October games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 5-0 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 5-0 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CALGARY (12 - 1 - 1) at TORONTO (5 - 9) - 10/10/2016, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games this season.
CALGARY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
CALGARY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 52 over the last 3 seasons.
CALGARY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 52.5 and 56 over the last 3 seasons.
CALGARY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins this season.
TORONTO is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 52 since 1996.
TORONTO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 2-2 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 4-0 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[Udog]

CFL

Week 16

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Trend Report
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Friday, October 7

7:00 PM
SASKATCHEWAN vs. OTTAWA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Saskatchewan's last 7 games when playing Ottawa
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Saskatchewan's last 9 games
Ottawa is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games ,at home
Ottawa is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games


Saturday, October 8

4:00 PM
BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. WINNIPEG
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of British Columbia's last 6 games
British Columbia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Winnipeg's last 23 games when playing British Columbia
Winnipeg is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing British Columbia


Monday, October 10

1:00 PM
EDMONTON vs. MONTREAL
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Edmonton's last 6 games when playing on the road against Montreal
Edmonton is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Montreal
Montreal is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Edmonton
Montreal is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Edmonton

4:00 PM
CALGARY vs. TORONTO
Calgary is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Calgary's last 5 games
Toronto is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
Toronto is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games


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[Udog]

CFL
Short Sheet

Week 16

Fri – Oct. 7

Saskatchewan at Ottawa, 7:00 PM ET
Saskatchewan: 24-9 ATS after gaining 350 or more passing yards in last game
Ottawa: 11-2 UNDER off a road loss


Sat – Oct. 8

British Columbia at Winnipeg, 4:00 PM ET
British Columbia: 10-3 ATS in all lined games
Winnipeg: 12-3 UNDER off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a home favorite


Mon – Oct. 10

Edmonton at Montreal, 1:00 PM ET
Edmonton: 7-5 ATS off 3 straight division games
Montreal: 0-6 ATS after playing a game at home

Calgary at Toronto, 4:00 PM ET
Calgary: 6-0 ATS in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 52
Toronto: 2-11 ATS after outgaining opp by 70 or more total yards in their previous game

[Udog]

CFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 16


Saskatchewan (3-10) @ Ottawa (6-6-1)— Roughriders (+6) kicked FG with 1:09 left to upset Ottawa 30-29 at home July 22; Riders won last two games by total of five points after their 1-10 start- they’re 0-7 SU on road, 3-4 as a road underdog. Saskatchewan is 3-2 overall vs Ottawa, losing 35-13 (+3) here LY, winning 38-14 (-6) in ’14. Four of five series games went over total. Ottawa is 3-6 in its last nine games after its 3-0-1 start; they’re 2-3-1 SU at home, 1-5 as home favorites, beating Toronto 29-12 in last home games. Under is 6-3-1 in their last 10 games, 3-0 in Roughriders’ last three games.

British Columbia (9-4) @ Winnipeg (8-6)— Blue Bombers swept BC 23-15 (+3), 29-26 (+6) LY, after losing seven of previous eight games vs Lions, who won three of last four visits here. BC is 5-2 on road, with losses by 4-3 points; they’re 5-0 vs spread as an underdog this year. Four of their last six games stayed under the total; under is 17-6 in last 23 series games. Winnipeg allowed 76 points in losing its last two games that followed a 7-game win streak. Bombers are 3-4 SU at home, 1-3 as a home favorite- six of their last seven games went over the total.

Edmonton (7-7) @ Montreal (4-9)— Eskimos won/covered last five series games, winning 23-12 (-7) at home August 11; they won here last two years, 15-12 (+1) LY, 33-23 (-5.5) year before. Over is 7-2-1 in last ten series games. Edmonton scored 67 points in winning its last two games; they’re 3-3 SU on road, 2-1 as a road favorite- five of their last seven games went over. total Montreal snapped 4-game skid with 38-11 win over Toronto LW; Alouettes are 2-5 SU at home, 0-2 vs spread as a home dog, with only home wins over Riders/Argos- they’re 1-9 this season scoring less than 38 points.

Calgary (12-1-1) @ Toronto (5-9)— Calgary won its last 11 games (9-1-1 vs spread); they’re 4-1 vs spread as road favorite, with only road loss in season opener in Vancouver. Four of Stamps’ last five games went over. Toronto lost three in row, seven of last eight games; they’re 2-5 SU at home, 1-3 as a home underdog- over is 4-2-2 in their last eight games. Stampeders won last four series games, winning last three visits here, by 35-14/34-15/27-15 scores; three of last four series games stayed under the total. Underdogs covered 10 of last 11 series games, going 8-3 SU in last 12, with one pick ‘em game.

— Underdogs 32-25-1, home teams 24-35-2 vs spread…….Over: 28-30-3

[Udog]

CFL
Dunkel

Week 16

Friday, October 7

Saskatchewan @ Ottawa

Game 477-478
October 7, 2016 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Saskatchewan
109.035
Ottawa
113.108
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Ottawa
by 4
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Ottawa
by 7
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Saskatchewan
(+7); Over


Saturday, October 8

BC Lions @ Winnipeg

Game 479-480
October 8, 2016 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
BC Lions
113.182
Winnipeg
116.599
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Winnipeg
by 3 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Winnipeg
by 1 1/2
55
Dunkel Pick:
Winnipeg
(-1 1/2); Under


Monday, October 10

Calgary @ Toronto

Game 483-484
October 10, 2016 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Calgary
116.815
Toronto
111.054
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Calgary
by 6
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Calgary
by 9
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(+9); Over

Edmonton @ Montreal

Game 481-482
October 10, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Edmonton
118.185
Montreal
113.184
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Edmonton
by 5
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Edmonton
by 3
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Edmonton
(-3); Over