The Bum's 2016 NFL Regular Season Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

[StarDust Bum]

NFL notebook: Romo expected to play Sunday
December 30, 2016

Quarterback Tony Romo, who missed the entire season after suffering a back injury in the preseason and then was demoted in favor of rookie sensation Dak Prescott, is expected to play in Sunday's game against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Prescott will start and Romo and Mark Sanchez are expected to play but it has not been determined how long they will do so, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter.

The rotation appears to be a change in plans for the Cowboys, who previously indicated they would not risk an injury to Romo in a meaningless Week 17 game on the road to end the regular season.

The Cowboys, who previously wrapped up the NFC East title and the top seed for the NFC playoffs, are expected to limit Prescott's playing time. Coach Jason Garrett would not confirm whether Romo would play or not Sunday. Garrett said the coaches will meet later Friday and finalize the plans Saturday night and Sunday morning in Philadelphia.

--Indianapolis Colts outside linebacker Robert Mathis announced he will retire after Sunday's game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, ending 14 years with the organization.

The 35-year-old Mathis spent his entire career with the Colts after being selected in the fifth round out of Alabama A&M in 2003. He has 122 career sacks -- tied for 18th place all-time in the NFL.

"I want to walk away, not limp away. The rest of my body goes to my kids," Mathis told reporters Friday. "Put a cap on a blessed career."

The 6-foot-2, 245-pound Mathis has been in 191 career games (120 starts) and totaled 601 tackles, 18 passes defensed, 51 forced fumbles, 16 fumble recoveries (three returned for touchdowns), one interception and 15 special teams stops. He was in 18 postseason contests (11 starts) and tallied 48 tackles, 6.5 sacks, two passes defensed, five forced fumbles and one fumble recovery. He has four sacks in 13 games this season.

--The NFL decided not to reinstate Oakland Raiders linebacker Aldon Smith from his yearlong suspension, the league announced.

Smith, 27, applied for reinstatement following a one-year suspension for multiple violations of the NFL's substance-abuse policy. He has been suspended for the last 22 games, and Sunday's regular-season finale against the Denver Broncos will be his 23rd.

Smith's suspension was due to end Nov. 17 and he applied for reinstatement Oct. 3. His case will not be revisited by the league until March 15.

The 6-foot-4, 265-pound embattled pass rusher met with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell on Dec. 9 in an effort to state his case for reinstatement from suspension.

--The Seattle Seahawks and Pro Bowl defensive end Michael Bennett agreed to a three-year contract extension.

The deal will kick in for the 2018 season and keep Bennett under contract through the 2020 campaign, Jason LaCanfora of CBS Sports reported.

The new deal is worth $31.5 million, with $17.5 million in guarantees, a source told NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.

Bennett, 31, already was signed through 2017 and was set to become a free agent in 2018.

--The Minnesota Vikings, no longer in playoff contention, ruled out running back Adrian Peterson for Sunday's season finale against the Chicago Bears.

The 31-year-old Peterson has been slowed with knee and groin injuries for the second straight week after he returned from a torn meniscus in Week 15 against the Indianapolis Colts on Dec. 18. The 2012 NFL MVP has not practiced since the Colts game, and will finish the season with 37 carries for 72 yards and no touchdowns in three games.

Peterson suffered a torn meniscus against the Green Bay Packers in Week 2 on Sept. 18. He underwent surgery four days later.

The Vikings, who have an option on Peterson for the 2017 that includes a $6 million roster bonus on the third day of the league year, likely will request a restructured contract for next season.

--Detroit Lions running back Theo Riddick has been ruled out of Sunday night's NFC North Division showdown with the Green Bay Packers due to a wrist injury.

It will be the fourth consecutive game that Riddick misses. He leads the team with a modest 357 rushing yards.

Zach Zenner, who rushed for a career-best 67 yards last week against the Dallas Cowboys, will handle most of the ball-carrying duties.

Center Travis Swanson (concussion) is listed as doubtful and appears likely to miss his fourth straight game.

--San Diego Chargers running back Melvin Gordon will miss his third consecutive game due to leg and hip injuries.

The decision to hold Gordon out of Sunday's game against the Kansas City Chiefs will leave Gordon three yards shy of his first 1,000-yard rushing season.

Gordon suffered his injuries during a loss to the Carolina Panthers on Dec. 11. He rushed for 10 touchdowns in a strong second season after being a huge disappointment as a rookie.

Gordon lobbied lard to play against the Chiefs but coach Mike McCoy and general manager Tom Telesco told him on Friday that he would be withheld from the contest.

--The New York Jets placed running back Matt Forte on injured reserve after he was ruled out of Sunday's game with the Buffalo Bills due to a knee injury.

Forte has been playing with a torn meniscus in his right knee as well as a sore shoulder.

The 31-year-old rushed for a career-low 813 yards this season. It was his second straight season below 1,000 yards after he reached the milestone in five of his first seven NFL seasons as a member of the Chicago Bears.

Forte has two seasons remaining on a three-year contract and stated he plans to play at least one more season.

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, JANUARY 1

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

DAL at PHI 01:00 PM

DAL +5.5 **********

O 42.5

BAL at CIN 01:00 PM

CIN +1.0 *****

U 41.5

BUF at NYJ 01:00 PM

BUF -3.5 *****

U 42.5

CLE at PIT 01:00 PM

CLE +6.0

U 42.5

CHI at MIN 01:00 PM

MIN -6.5 *****

U 43.0

JAC at IND 01:00 PM

IND -4.5

O 47.0

HOU at TEN 01:00 PM

TEN -3.0 *****

U 40.5 *****

CAR at TB 01:00 PM

CAR +4.0 *****

O 46.0

NE at MIA 01:00 PM

MIA +9.5 *****

O 44.5 *****

ARI at LA 04:25 PM

ARI -6.5 *****

U 40.5

KC at SD 04:25 PM

KC -4.5

O 44.5

NO at ATL 04:25 PM

NO +7.0 *****

U 56.5 **********

OAK at DEN 04:25 PM

OAK +1.5 *****

O 40.5

SEA at SF 04:25 PM

SEA -9.0

O 42.5 *****

NYG at WAS 04:25 PM

WAS -7.5

U 44.5

GB at DET 08:30 PM

DET +3.0 **********

O 49.5 *****

[StarDust Bum]

SNF - Packers at Lions
December 29, 2016

The NFL has selected us a fantastic Sunday Night Football matchup where there's a winner-take-all situation when the Green Bay Packers (9-6 straight up, 8-6-1 against the spread) visit the Detroit Lions (9-6 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) at Ford Field. The winner wins the NFC North which carries a home date in next week's Wild Card round in the playoffs. The loser, depending on results of the Giants-Redskins and Buccaneers-Panthers, might have its season end.

Detroit had control of its own destiny as the NFC North leader, but lost its last two and the game before that they needed quarterback Matt Stafford's eighth fourth-quarter comeback to beat the lowly Bears 20-17. That's three-straight non-covers after being on a 6-1-1 ATS run. The critical link to the Lions not playing as well has been the absence of do-everything running back Theo Riddick (wrist) the last three games, and he didn't practice this week which likely means he's out again.

Meanwhile, the Packers have been winning while the Lions are losing to pull up even at 9-6 in the NFC North. Green Bay has won its last five games (4-1 ATS) and have scored at least 30-points in its last three (all three 'over' winners). They've been in playoff mode the last five weeks because they knew a loss at any juncture after being 4-6 would make this Week 17 game meaningless.

One team is rolling, and the other is one the skids. This one is for all the marbles, with Stafford having his best chance to finally win a division title. But Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers definitely has more big game experience.

The one thing for certain is if betting with the current hot team, you're laying a terribly inflated number that has Green Bay as a 3.5-point road favorite.

LINE MOVEMENT

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Packers -3 prior to the Lions 42-21 loss at Dallas Monday night. After the game started they took it off the board and then re-opened Packers -3.5 on Tuesday. On two instances they have moved the Lions to +3.5 (-120) showing there has been support taking the hook with the home 'dog at a flat price. The total has been bet up from 48 to 49.5. Briefly, before Monday night the total was 46.5

CAPTAIN COMEBACK

Stafford has led a Lions offense to eight fourth-quarter come from behind victories this season, which is an all-time record. It's incredible to think that the Lions have won only nine times this season, which brings to question how good the Lions really are if they're always down late in games. Since Jim Bob Cooter became the offensive coordinator halfway through last season, Stafford has been a changed QB with a short passing game, and he's also been aided by not trying to force passes into the now retired wide receiver Calvin Johnson.

RECENT HISTORY

In the Week 3 meeting at Lambeau Field, the Packers had a 31-10 lead at halftime, and while Detroit outscored them 17-3 in the second-half, Matt Stafford fell short of a comeback in a 34-27 loss. Depending on when betting that game, it fell on the number at +7. Aaron Rodgers tossed four TDs (no picks) and Stafford threw for 385 yards and three TDs (one pick). The favorite has covered eight of the past nine meetings, and most of those have been the Packers who are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 clashes. Green Bay has stayed 'under' in seven of its last 10 games at Detroit.

A TIE IS GOOD

In a season of multiple tied games, this would be a good spot for one as far as the Packers and Lions are concerned because a tie would get both teams into the playoffs. Green Bay would win the division and Detroit would get the wild card. It wouldn't matter what the Redskins did at home against the Giants earlier in the day. If the Redskins win against New York, the loser of this game goes home.

NELSON ALMOST 100 PERCENT?

Jordy Nelson may never be the speedy player he once was before tearing his ACL last season, but he's shown over the Packers five-game winning streak to be as close to his old-self as possible. How does 38 receptions for 524 yards and five TDs over his last five? He's looking almost like the 2014 version of Nelson and currently leads NFL receivers with 14 TDs. He may not be blowing by cornerbacks any more, but he might be a little craftier with his route running to make him at times better than the younger, pre-injury version.

KEY INJURIES

The Lions got some good news this week when cornerback Darius Slay and center Travis Swanson both returned to practice which is a great indication they'll play. The Lions secondary looked lost without Slay last week at Dallas. WR Anquan Boldin practiced as well. but was favoring his injured finger which had a splint on it. The bad news for Detroit was that Riddick and returner Andre Roberts have not practiced through Thursday. The Packers are still likely to be without WR Randall Cobb who is nursing an ankle.

ROBERTS' RATING

I have Green Bay 1-point better than Detroit on a neutral field and I give Ford Field 2.5-points for Detroit, so my raw number on the game is the Lions -1.5. Public perception is worth about 1.5-points for the Packers. However, the public has already shown that they feel Green Bay -3 was too cheap.

TRENDS

-- Green Bay is 9-4 ATS in last 13 January games.
-- Green Bay is 23-11 ATS in last 34 against NFC North teams.
-- Green Bay has seen the 'over' go 7-2 in last nine games.

-- Detroit is 5-1 ATS in past six home games.
-- Detroit is 6-19-1 ATS in last 26 games after allowed 30+ points in previous game.
-- Detroit has watched the 'under' go 8-1 in its last nine games.

SUPER BOWL

The Lions are currently 50/1 odds at the Westgate, which sounds fair considering they have to win their next five games and do it mostly as underdogs. The Packers are 12/1, but the best value right now if liking Green Bay is to roll over a money-line bet on the Packers the next five games.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 17
December 31, 2016

The scoreboard operators put in some work during the holiday weekend as 25 of 32 teams put up 20-plus points and the New York Jets were the only team not to score a touchdown. That offensive effort helped the ‘over’ post an eye-opening 12-3-1 record in Week 15 and that was the best result for the high side this season. Through 16 weeks, the ‘over’ has gone 124-111-2 this season.

Handicapping Week 17

The last week of the regular season is often the most difficult to handicap for both sides and totals. With that being said, I’d urge you to tread lightly on the meaningless matchups.

WEEK 17 TOTAL RESULTS (2011-2015)
Year Over/Under
2015 5-11
2014 6-10
2013 6-10
2012 8-8
2011 9-7

I dug up the numbers from the last five seasons and looking above, you can see that the ‘under’ has produced better overall numbers in Week 17 and that includes an 11-5 mark last season.

Based on playoff implications, there are nine meaningless matchups in Week 17 and I’m including the Tampa Bay-Carolina matchup because the Buccaneers can only earn a spot if they win, the Redskins and Giants end in a tie and a quartet of other teams need to win too.

Houston at Tennessee: The ‘over’ has cashed in seven of the past 10 in this series.

Buffalo at N.Y. Jets: Five of the last six played in New York have gone to the high side, with the Jets averaging 30.6 PPG at home during this span.

Baltimore at Cincinnati: The Ravens have seen the ‘over’ connect in their last four but the Cincy defense (16.6 PPG) has helped the team close with a 6-1 ‘under’ run over its last seven.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis: High total (47) and Colts have put up some serious offensive numbers (30.7 PPG) off a loss this season but the last five played in Indy between the pair have all gone ‘under.’

Dallas at Philadelphia: The Eagles have seen the ‘over’ go 2-0 in their last two at Lincoln Financial Field before the first five went ‘under.’

Chicago at Minnesota: The ‘under’ is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the pair and Minnesota has watched the ‘under’ go 15-9 at home since Mike Zimmer took over in 2014.

Carolina at Tampa Bay: The Panthers and Bucs have posted identical total records (7-7-1) this season. The ‘over’ is 2-1 in the last three played at Raymond James Stadium between the pair, with Carolina averaging 29.3 points per game.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh: The ‘under’ is 5-0 in the last five games Pittsburgh lined up without Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback. Browns have seen the ‘under’ go 6-1 in the second-half.

Arizona at Los Angeles: The Cardinals have seen the ‘over’ go 7-0 on the road this season.

Meaningful Matchups

Hopefully you’ll be able to survive the first wave of action on Sunday and still be alive for the meaningful matchups in Week 17.

New England at Miami: This game kicks at 1:00 p.m. ET and something has to give here with New England 6-1 to the ‘under’ on the road and Miami 6-1 to the ‘over’ at home. As I wrote about last week, the Dolphins offense is all about big plays but they’ll be facing the top scoring defense in New England, who is allowing 15.7 PPG. The first meeting between the pair at Foxboro went ‘over’ but three of the last four encounters in South Florida have stayed ‘under’ the number.

N.Y. Giants at Washington: This is another ‘over’ vs. ‘under’ matchup with Washington leaning to the high side (12-3) while the Giants have been the best ‘under’ (11-4) wager in the league. Washington beat New York 29-27 on the road in Week 3 and the ‘over’ (47) connected but the number for the rematch is 45. Knowing Washington needs a win to stay alive for a playoff spot, the tempo of the game will be determined by the score. Despite being in the playoffs, the Giants announced that their regulars are going to start.

Green Bay at Detroit: (See Below)

New Orleans at Atlanta: This total (56 ½) is the highest number we’ve seen all season and even though it’s inflated, it’s hard to make a case for the ‘under.’ Atlanta owns the best ‘over’ record (12-2-1) and that includes a 7-0 mark at the Georgia Dome. New Orleans enters this game off 48 and 31-point performances from its offense nd the Falcons defense (24.9 PPG) doesn’t have the horses to slow them down. This series was on a good ‘under’ run (5-1-1) but the pair squashed that trend in late September when Atlanta defeated New Orleans 45-32 in a Week 4 matchup on Monday Night Football. I expect both teams to get at least five scores and barring a ton of field goals, the high side will be threatened.

Kansas City at San Diego: The ‘under’ is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the pair and the one ‘over’ occurred this season when the Chiefs rallied past the Chargers for a 33-27 overtime victory in Week 1. San Diego led 21-3 at halftime before collapsing in the second-half, which burnt ‘under’ bettors. The Chiefs remain a solid ‘under’ bet (10-5) behind their defense (18.9 PPG) and that unit will be facing a San Diego offense that’s run out of gas the last three weeks (16.3 PPG) and that’s resulted in three ‘under’ tickets.

Seattle at San Francisco: This total opened as high as 44 ½ and is as low as 42 as of Saturday afternoon. The Seahawks defense was embarrassed at home last week (34-31) against the Cardinals and most would expect a big rebound. Seattle blasted San Francisco 37-18 in Week 3 at home and the 49ers defense is ranked last in total defense (408 yards per game) and scoring (30.3 PPG). Before you back Seattle and the ‘over’ on Sunday make a note that the ‘under’ has gone 4-0 in the last four meetings between the pair in San Francisco and the average combined score is just 25 PPPG.

Oakland at Denver: There will be plenty of backup quarterbacks on the field for this one as Oakland starts Matt McGloin for the injured Derek Carr. He hasn’t started a game since 2003 but in six career appearances, he’s helped his club average 23.6 PPG. Denver announced that it’s going with two quarterbacks in the finale and that’s never a good thing, especially for an offense averaging 10.8 PPG over its last four games.

Under the Lights

Even though bookmakers haven’t been pleased with this year’s NFL betting results as a whole, I’m guessing they’re relieved that the ‘under’ went 27-23-1 in the primetime games. As we head into Week 17’s matchup, the guys behind the betting counter will be cheering for another ticket to the low side.

Oddsmakers sent out a total of 46 ½ between the Packers and Lions last Sunday and that number has jumped up to 49 ½ six days later.

The Green Bay-Over combination is receiving an enormous amount of support and the books are hoping the Lions can pull off the upset in an ugly game. The Packers have covered and gone ‘over’ in five of their first 15 games this season and that includes their 34-27 win over Detroit on Sept. 25 as 6 ½-point home favorites.

The Packers have gone 5-2 to the ‘over’ on the road this season and their defense (28.9 PPG) has helped the cause. Make a note that Green Bay has played in five night games this season and it’s seen the ‘under’ go 4-1.

Prior to last Monday’s 42-21 blowout loss at Dallas, the Lions had seen the ‘under’ cash in eight straight games and the defense held seven of those opponents under 20 points. Detroit’s secondary could be missing two starters including corner back Darius Slay (hamstring).

The ‘over’ is on a 3-1 run in this series and that includes last year’s 27-23 win by Green Bay over Detroit at Ford Field that ended with the infamous Hail Mary touchdown from the Pack.

For bettors that lean on historical angles, listed below are the Week 17 SNF matchups dating back to 2008.

2015 - Minnesota 20 at Green Bay 13 (Under 44)
2014 – Pittsburgh 27 vs. Cincinnati 17 (Under 49)
2013 – Philadelphia 24 at Dallas 22 (Under 54 ½)
2012 – Washington 28 vs. Dallas 18 (Under 48)
2011 – N.Y. Giants 31 vs. Dallas 14 (Under 48)
2010 – Seattle 16 vs. St. Louis 6 (Under 42 ½)
2009 – N.Y. Jets 37 vs. Cincinnati 0 (Over 33 ½)
2008 – San Diego 52 vs. Denver 21 (Over 50)

The ‘under’ has cashed in six straight SNF finales and six of the last eight games that have been flexed to the Sunday Night spot have been decided by double digits.

Only two road teams managed to win this game during this span. The Vikings stopped the Packers last season and the Eagles barely defeated the Tony Romo-less Cowboys in 2013.

Coincidentally, both Minnesota and Philadelphia earned home playoff games with those wins and they both lost in the postseason by a combined three points to Seattle (10-9) and New Orleans (26-24) respectively.

Fearless Predictions

We turned a solid profit ($190) last week and even though the bankroll sits slightly in the red ($300) through 16 weeks, I’m feeling good headed into the finale. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck and Happy New Year to you and yours!

Best Over: Oakland-Denver 40 ½

Best Under: Seattle-San Francisco 43

Best Team Total: Over Detroit 23 ½

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 47 New Orleans-Atlanta
Over 31 ½ Oakland-Denver
Over 35 ½ New England-Miami

[StarDust Bum]

Pick Six - Week 17
December 31, 2016

Week 16 Record: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS

Overall Record: 45-47 SU, 42-50-2 ATS

Panthers at Buccaneers (-4 ½, 46) – 1:00 PM EST

Carolina
Record: 6-9 SU, 5-9-1 ATS

The Panthers finished last season without a home loss in 10 tries, but suffered their fourth home defeat last week in a 33-16 setback to the Falcons. Carolina stumbled to a 2-5 record away from Bank of America Stadium as only one of those victories came in the underdog role at Washington in Week 15. The Panthers look to avenge a 17-14 home defeat to the Buccaneers back in Week 5 as Cam Newton missed that loss due to injury. Carolina has won straight visits to Raymond James Stadium, while holding Tampa Bay to 17 points or less in each victory.

Tampa Bay
Record: 8-7 SU, 9-6 ATS

Two weeks ago, the Buccaneers were right in the mix of the NFC playoff picture, but back-to-back road losses at New Orleans and Dallas have put Tampa Bay on the brink of elimination. The Bucs need to win on Sunday plus have a multitude scenarios work in their favor, as Tampa Bay has covered in six of its past seven games. After starting the season at 0-4 at Raymond James Stadium, the Bucs are riding a three-game home winning streak, while allowing a total of 26 points in those victories.

Best Bet: Carolina +4 ½

Patriots (-9 ½, 45) at Dolphins – 1:00 PM EST

New England
Record: 13-2 SU, 12-3 ATS

The Patriots control their own destiny for home-field advantage in the AFC playoff by picking up a victory over the Dolphins. If New England loses, the Patriots need the Raiders to lose at Denver to still capture the top AFC seed. The Pats picked up their sixth consecutive win in last Saturday’s 41-3 rout of the Jets as 17-point favorites. New England has cashed in five of six opportunities in the road favorite role this season, but the Patriots have lost three straight visits to Hard Rock Stadium, including a 20-10 defeat in last season’s Week 17 contest.

Miami
Record: 10-5 SU, 9-6 ATS

The Dolphins held off the Bills in overtime last Saturday, 34-31 to wrap up their first playoff appearance since 2008. Miami won in spite of allowing 589 yards to Buffalo, but the Dolphins picked up its first sweep of Buffalo and New York in the same season since 2003. Matt Moore will start once again in place of the injured Ryan Tannehill at quarterback as the Dolphins have scored 34 points in each of his first two appearances. Miami is currently on an 8-1 run to the OVER, including four straight OVERS at Hard Rock Stadium.

Best Bet: Miami +9 ½

Saints at Falcons (-8, 56 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

New Orleans
Record: 7-8 SU, 10-5 ATS

The Saints have been the best underdog in the NFL this season by compiling a 7-1 ATS mark when receiving points. New Orleans is riding a two-game winning streak following a 31-24 home victory over Tampa Bay last Saturday as three-point favorites. The Saints have scored 79 points the past two weeks, while putting up at least 31 points in six of seven wins this season. New Orleans posted 32 points in its last meeting with Atlanta at the Superdome in Week 3, but the Saints fell to the Falcons, 45-32.

Atlanta
Record: 10-5 SU, 10-5 ATS

The Falcons picked up their third straight win to wrap up the NFC South title in last week’s 33-16 blowout of the Panthers as three-point favorites. Atlanta owns a 2-4 ATS mark in the home favorite role this season, while sailing OVER the total in all seven games at the Georgia Dome. The favorite has struggled in this series recently by going 0-6 ATS since 2013, as the last three meetings in Atlanta have been decided by four points or less.

Best Bet: New Orleans +8

Giants at Redskins (-7 ½, 44 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

New York
Record: 10-5 SU, 8-6-1 ATS

The Giants have wrapped up a playoff spot and are looking to get through Week 17 without any injuries. New York fell behind early at Philadelphia and came up short in a 24-19 setback last Thursday night to lose its second consecutive road contest. The Giants are playing with revenge after blowing an early 14-3 lead in a 29-27 home defeat to the Redskins in Week 3 as 3 ½-point favorites. New York owns a 1-3-1 ATS mark as a road underdog this season, while going 6-1 to the UNDER away from Met Life Stadium.

Washington
Record: 8-6-1 SU, 10-5 ATS

The Redskins control their own destiny for the final playoff berth in the NFC by picking up a victory on Sunday. Washington helped itself with a 41-21 rout of Chicago last Saturday as three-point road favorites, while intercepting Matt Barkley five times. The Redskins moved to 7-1 to the OVER in their past eight games, while owning a 6-1 OVER mark in six contests at FedEx Field. Washington has won and covered six of its last eight December contests, as the Redskins go for their first home favorite win over the Giants since 2005.

Best Bet: Washington -7 ½

Chiefs (-4 ½, 44 ½) at Chargers – 4:25 PM EST

Kansas City
Record: 11-4 SU, 8-7 ATS

The Chiefs have an excellent opportunity to capture their first AFC West title since 2010 with a win at San Diego plus an Oakland loss. Kansas City rebounded from a last-second loss to Tennessee by pounding Denver last Sunday night, 33-10 as 3 ½-point favorites. The Chiefs are seeking a perfect 6-0 record inside the AFC West as Kansas City erased a 24-3 deficit to San Diego in a 33-27 overtime triumph back in Week 1 at Arrowhead Stadium.

San Diego
Record: 5-10 SU, 7-8 ATS

The Lightning Bolts are losing their charge late in the season by dropping four consecutive games, including a humiliating 20-17 setback to the previously winless Browns. San Diego hasn’t scored more than 21 points in any of its past four losses, while dropping three consecutive games at Qualcomm Stadium. The Chargers are 1-1 SU/ATS as a home underdog this season, as San Diego goes for its second division win in its past 14 tries.

Best Bet: San Diego +4 ½

Raiders at Broncos (-1 ½, 40 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

Oakland
Record: 12-3 SU, 10-5 ATS

The Raiders took a major hit in last Saturday’s 33-25 home victory over the Colts as quarterback Derek Carr suffered a broken fibula and will be out for the rest of the season. Matt McGloin takes over for Carr as the former Penn State standout will make his first NFL start since 2013. Oakland has fared well on the road by compiling a 6-1 SU/ATS mark away from the Black Hole, as the Raiders go for the sweep of the Broncos following a 30-20 home triumph back in November.

Denver
Record: 8-7 SU, 8-7 ATS

The defending champion Broncos won’t return to the postseason as Denver has stumbled down the stretch by losing three straight games. The offense has been non-existent by scoring a total of 23 points, while getting outgained in last week’s loss at Kansas City, 484-246. The Broncos will shake things up the season finale as both Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch will see time under center as Denver tries to avoid losing four home games in a season for the first time since 2011.

Best Bet: Oakland +1 ½

[StarDust Bum]

SuperContest Picks - Week 17
December 31, 2016

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,854 entries, which is an all-time record.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9

Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12 | Week 13 | Week 14 | Week 15 | Week 16


Week 17

1) Green Bay -3.5 (538)

2) Miami +9.5 (417)

3) Detroit +3.5 (405)

4) Baltimore +2 (389)

5) Denver -1 (374)

SUPERCONTEST WEEK 17 MATCHUPS & ODDS

Away Team Selections Home Team Selections

Houston (+3.5) 244 Tennessee (-3.5) 155

Buffalo (-3.5) 196 N.Y. Jets (+3.5) 178

Baltimore (+2) 389 Cincinnati (-2) 147

N.Y. Giants (+7.5) 318 Washington (-7.5) 226

Green Bay (-3.5) 538 Detroit (+3.5) 405

Jacksonville (+4.5) 184 Indianapolis (-4.5) 318

Dallas (+4) 168 Philadelphia (-4) 240

Chicago (+5) 180 Minnesota (-5) 189

Carolina (+6) 350 Tampa Bay (-6) 134

Cleveland (+6) 140 Pittsburgh (-6) 251

New Orleans (+6.5) 313 Atlanta (-6.5) 318

New England (-9.5) 172 Miami (+9.5) 417

Arizona (-6) 244 Los Angeles (+6) 101

Kansas City (-6) 320 San Diego (+6) 271

Seattle (-9.5) 272 San Francisco (+9.5) 102

Oakland (+1) 221 Denver (-1) 374


WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS

Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage

1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 0-5 3-7 30%
3 0-5 3-12 20%
4 1-4 4-16 20%
5 3-2 7-18 28%
6 1-3-1 8-21-1 28%
7 3-2 11-23-1 32%
8 3-2 14-25-1 35%
9 2-3 16-28-1 36%
10 0-5 16-33-1 32%
11 3-2 19-35-1 35%
12 5-0 24-35-1 40%
13 3-2 27-37-1 42%
14 4-0-1 31-37-2 46%
15 2-2-1 33-39-3 46%
16 4-1 37-40-3 48%

[StarDust Bum]

Packers, Lions hook up
December 30, 2016

SNF Betting Preview
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions

Sportsbook.ag Odds: Green Bay (-3.5); Total set at 50.5

While there may be a flood of unimportant games on the Week 17 schedule, the NFL got the one division showdown they were hoping for as the Packers and Lions battle for the NFC North crown. The winner of this game will host a wildcard game, while the loser will have to hope they get some help from the Giants and Panthers by beating the Redskins and Buccaneers respectively. If that were to happen then there is a chance we see these two NFC North rivals meet again next week, but for now it's all about this contest with everything on the line.

When the Green Bay Packers were 4-6 SU after Week 11, Aaron Rodgers came out and said he and his teammates were very confident they could win out and get to the playoffs. Green Bay is one win away from making that statement become a reality and there is no denying they've played their best football of the season the past month and a half.

Unsurprisingly, it's the Packers who have gotten all the early support from bettors when you look at VegasInsider.com's betting percentage numbers (75%) as many expect them to live up to Rodgers' proclaimation and win the division. Green Bay is always going to be a favorite of recreational bettors every year, but with the run they've been on and the Lions looking awful in the 2nd half of MNF vs. Dallas a week ago, it's almost become a perfect storm for bettors to flock to the Packers this week. After all, Green Bay did beat the Lions 34-27 in the first meeting and the game wasn't nearly as close as the final score suggests.

But with the sportsbooks clearly rooting for at least a Detroit cover in this contest, the game turn out to be a bit different. Green Bay may be undefeated since Rodgers made that statement, but the schedule has also worked in their favor. Three of their five wins have come at home, and only two of those five wins came against playoff teams.

It's been on the road where we've seen a significant worse Packers team all year long and their two road wins during this stretch came against Philadelphia and Chicago; not exactly the best of the best in the league. It was also in that trip to Chicago where Green Bay watched the Bears storm back from a 17-point deficit in the fourth quarter to tie the game and the Packers needed a Hail Mary and FG with no time left on the clock to escape with a victory. With all the momentum clearly on the Bears side at the time, going to OT could have been disastrous for Green Bay.

The Lions aren't likely to make the same mistakes Chicago did, and it's actually been Detroit who have been a phenomenal fourth quarter team all year long. Should a similar scenario arise this week, Green Bay's luck may actually run out.

Furthermore, when the Packers have been on the road against playoff bound, or teams that were/are in the playoff hunt, they've really struggled aside from one game in Atlanta. Green Bay suffered blow out losses to Washington and Tennessee prior to this five-game winning streak, and lost in Minnesota by three points in Week 2. The game in Atlanta was only a one-point defeat, but Green Bay still allowed 33 points that day in the dome and their 28.9 points allowed per road game this year is cause for concern.

Meanwhile, Detroit has only lost once at home all year long and that was all the way back in Week 2. The 16-15 loss vs. Tennessee was a touch embarrassing at the time for the Lions as it sparked a three-game losing streak, but since then they are a perfect 6-0 SU at home and have gone 8-3 SU (7-4 ATS) overall. Losing two straight on the road to the Giants and Cowboys is nothing to be extremely frustrated over and I know if you told the Lions that they'd have a home game in Week 17 to win the division they'd gladly take it. The fact that everyone is already counting them out here only adds fuel to the fire.

So with the Lions 7-3 ATS after losing by 14+ points, and 5-1 ATS in their last six at home, we could see that 'hook' on +3.5 come very much into play here. The number could even reach +4 or higher by kickoff with plenty more Green Bay money on the horizon, and with the stakes as high as they are, Green Bay's struggles on the road, and the Lions prowess late in games, this game should be decided by three points or less.

Best Bet: Take Detroit +3.5