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Saturday's college action report: Louisville continues to be the public darlings of 2016
“Interestingly enough, this line opened with Clemson a 3-point favorite, (now) all the way to a 2-point favorite with Louisville, the biggest public darling so far this year.”
Week 5 of the college football season has seen several games make significant line movements, including two of the biggest contests on Saturday’s schedule. We talk about the action with Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports at Wynn Las Vegas, and Matthew Holt, vice president of business development at CG Technology in Las Vegas.
No. 4 Louisville Cardinals at No. 3 Clemson Tigers – Open: -3; Move: +2, +1.5
The Atlantic Coast Conference takes center stage this week in a battle of unbeatens at 8 p.m. Eastern. Louisville, behind Heisman Trophy favorite quarterback Lamar Jackson, is 4-0 SU and nearly the same ATS (3-0-1), whipping Marshall 59-38 last weekend to push as 31-point chalk. Clemson (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) rolled at Georgia Tech in Week 4, 26-7 as a 10-point favorite.
The Tigers reached the national title game last year, losing a thriller to Alabama, and have a great QB of their own in DeShaun Watson. And Clemson won 20-17 at Louisville last year laying 5 points. But bettors are plowing their money into Louisville.
“Interestingly enough, this line opened with Clemson a 3-point favorite, (now) all the way to a 2-point favorite with Louisville, the biggest public darling so far this year,” Holt said. “Just an example of how much public support Louisville’s getting: Quarterback Lamar Jackson started the preseason at 100/1 right here (at CG) to win the Heisman Trophy. All of a sudden, he’s -300 to win the Heisman.”
The Cardinals’ 63-20 wipeout of Florida State in Week 3 remains firmly in many bettors’ minds.
“Everybody saw what they did to Florida State. This line, the public is gonna be all over Louisville,” Holt said. “The difference here, I do think we’re gonna get some sharp buyback. Just before the season, this was gonna be a line that was double-digit favorites for Clemson.
“All of a sudden, with no injuries, both teams healthy, and a Clemson team that’s also undefeated and looked really good last Thursday night against Georgia Tech, with extra rest, I think we’ll see two-way action on this. (The) public all over the Louisville Cardinals, sharp guys all over the home team Clemson Tigers.”
Oklahoma Sooners at No. 19 Texas Christian Horned Frogs – Open: +1; Move: +3.5
Oklahoma, considered a national championship contender before the season opened, is coming off a much-needed bye after going 1-2 SU (0-3 ATS) in its first three games. The Sooners fell at Houston 33-23 giving 13 points in Week 1, then got boatraced 45-24 at home by Ohio State as a 2-point pup in Week 3.
TCU (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS) rolled past Southern Methodist 33-3 laying 21.5 points last week. The Horned Frogs have also cashed the last three in this rivalry, though Oklahoma is 2-1 SU, including a 30-29 win as a hefty 18-point favorite last year.
The Sooners drew the early action at the Wynn for this 5 p.m. Eastern kickoff, with the line jumping from the -1 opener Sunday night to -3.5 by Monday afternoon.
“There still are some believers out there in Oklahoma,” Avello said. “TCU has struggled a little bit this year, especially defensively.”
No. 8 Wisconsin Badgers at No. 5 Michigan Wolverines – Open: -9; Move: -10.5
Wisconsin (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) has been nothing short of impressive this season, yet finds itself a double-digit chalk at Michigan. The Badgers were just in the Great Lakes State a week ago, drubbing another top-10 team in Michigan State 30-6 as a 3.5-point underdog. The Wolverines (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS), meanwhile, have scored 45 points or more in all four of their starts, including a 49-10 Week 4 wipeout of Penn State giving 15.5 points at home.
“While Louisville’s getting all this love for their winning streak, Wisconsin’s not,” Holt said of action for this 3:30 p.m. Eastern start. “Wisconsin really put a stranglehold on Leonard Fournette and LSU, then last week, they hammered Michigan State in East Lansing, which nobody does. Just an absolute blowout on the road, and yet they’re not getting any love.
“This line opened Michigan -9, (now) all the way up to Wolverines a 10.5-point favorite, a lot of love for the Wolverines. They were the most highly bet team before the season started, they continue to be one of the most highly bet teams week in and week out. This one’s gonna be a really good one.”
Missouri Tigers at Louisiana State Tigers – Open: -14.5; Move: -12.5
LSU fired coach Les Miles last Sunday, a day after the Tigers lost 18-13 at Auburn when what appeared to be a game-winning touchdown was overruled on replay because LSU didn’t get the play off on time. That left LSU, a 3.5-point road fave in that contest, 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS. Missouri (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) is coming off a 79-0 ripping of FCS foe Delaware State as a massive 48-point fave.
Although LSU, with Ed Orgeron now the interim head coach, may seem in disarray, Avello said he’s not sold on those who are betting the line downward for this 7:30 p.m. Eastern kickoff.
“The players bet the ‘dog in this game, feeling that maybe emotionally the air was let out of LSU with that coach being fired,” Avello said. “But I don’t believe so, because the defensive line coach is now the new coach, he’s been around. I think they fire them up pretty good, and I really don’t think Missouri’s that good of a team. So I look for this line to go back up again.”
Other games that have seen sizable moves at Wynn Las Vegas, which posts college lines each Sunday, earlier than most Las Vegas books:
• Notre Dame opened as 13-point road chalk against Syracuse, but was bet down to a 10-point fave by Friday afternoon.
• New Mexico is up to a 10.5-point home fave against San Jose State, after opening at -8.5.
• UCLA, which suffered a heartbreaking loss to Stanford last week (along with a terrible beat for its bettors), has been bet from an 11.5-point home favorite up to a 14-point chalk against Arizona.
• Southern California, which opened -7.5 against visiting Arizona State, is now at -10.
“Interestingly enough, this line opened with Clemson a 3-point favorite, (now) all the way to a 2-point favorite with Louisville, the biggest public darling so far this year.”
Week 5 of the college football season has seen several games make significant line movements, including two of the biggest contests on Saturday’s schedule. We talk about the action with Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports at Wynn Las Vegas, and Matthew Holt, vice president of business development at CG Technology in Las Vegas.
No. 4 Louisville Cardinals at No. 3 Clemson Tigers – Open: -3; Move: +2, +1.5
The Atlantic Coast Conference takes center stage this week in a battle of unbeatens at 8 p.m. Eastern. Louisville, behind Heisman Trophy favorite quarterback Lamar Jackson, is 4-0 SU and nearly the same ATS (3-0-1), whipping Marshall 59-38 last weekend to push as 31-point chalk. Clemson (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) rolled at Georgia Tech in Week 4, 26-7 as a 10-point favorite.
The Tigers reached the national title game last year, losing a thriller to Alabama, and have a great QB of their own in DeShaun Watson. And Clemson won 20-17 at Louisville last year laying 5 points. But bettors are plowing their money into Louisville.
“Interestingly enough, this line opened with Clemson a 3-point favorite, (now) all the way to a 2-point favorite with Louisville, the biggest public darling so far this year,” Holt said. “Just an example of how much public support Louisville’s getting: Quarterback Lamar Jackson started the preseason at 100/1 right here (at CG) to win the Heisman Trophy. All of a sudden, he’s -300 to win the Heisman.”
The Cardinals’ 63-20 wipeout of Florida State in Week 3 remains firmly in many bettors’ minds.
“Everybody saw what they did to Florida State. This line, the public is gonna be all over Louisville,” Holt said. “The difference here, I do think we’re gonna get some sharp buyback. Just before the season, this was gonna be a line that was double-digit favorites for Clemson.
“All of a sudden, with no injuries, both teams healthy, and a Clemson team that’s also undefeated and looked really good last Thursday night against Georgia Tech, with extra rest, I think we’ll see two-way action on this. (The) public all over the Louisville Cardinals, sharp guys all over the home team Clemson Tigers.”
Oklahoma Sooners at No. 19 Texas Christian Horned Frogs – Open: +1; Move: +3.5
Oklahoma, considered a national championship contender before the season opened, is coming off a much-needed bye after going 1-2 SU (0-3 ATS) in its first three games. The Sooners fell at Houston 33-23 giving 13 points in Week 1, then got boatraced 45-24 at home by Ohio State as a 2-point pup in Week 3.
TCU (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS) rolled past Southern Methodist 33-3 laying 21.5 points last week. The Horned Frogs have also cashed the last three in this rivalry, though Oklahoma is 2-1 SU, including a 30-29 win as a hefty 18-point favorite last year.
The Sooners drew the early action at the Wynn for this 5 p.m. Eastern kickoff, with the line jumping from the -1 opener Sunday night to -3.5 by Monday afternoon.
“There still are some believers out there in Oklahoma,” Avello said. “TCU has struggled a little bit this year, especially defensively.”
No. 8 Wisconsin Badgers at No. 5 Michigan Wolverines – Open: -9; Move: -10.5
Wisconsin (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) has been nothing short of impressive this season, yet finds itself a double-digit chalk at Michigan. The Badgers were just in the Great Lakes State a week ago, drubbing another top-10 team in Michigan State 30-6 as a 3.5-point underdog. The Wolverines (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS), meanwhile, have scored 45 points or more in all four of their starts, including a 49-10 Week 4 wipeout of Penn State giving 15.5 points at home.
“While Louisville’s getting all this love for their winning streak, Wisconsin’s not,” Holt said of action for this 3:30 p.m. Eastern start. “Wisconsin really put a stranglehold on Leonard Fournette and LSU, then last week, they hammered Michigan State in East Lansing, which nobody does. Just an absolute blowout on the road, and yet they’re not getting any love.
“This line opened Michigan -9, (now) all the way up to Wolverines a 10.5-point favorite, a lot of love for the Wolverines. They were the most highly bet team before the season started, they continue to be one of the most highly bet teams week in and week out. This one’s gonna be a really good one.”
Missouri Tigers at Louisiana State Tigers – Open: -14.5; Move: -12.5
LSU fired coach Les Miles last Sunday, a day after the Tigers lost 18-13 at Auburn when what appeared to be a game-winning touchdown was overruled on replay because LSU didn’t get the play off on time. That left LSU, a 3.5-point road fave in that contest, 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS. Missouri (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) is coming off a 79-0 ripping of FCS foe Delaware State as a massive 48-point fave.
Although LSU, with Ed Orgeron now the interim head coach, may seem in disarray, Avello said he’s not sold on those who are betting the line downward for this 7:30 p.m. Eastern kickoff.
“The players bet the ‘dog in this game, feeling that maybe emotionally the air was let out of LSU with that coach being fired,” Avello said. “But I don’t believe so, because the defensive line coach is now the new coach, he’s been around. I think they fire them up pretty good, and I really don’t think Missouri’s that good of a team. So I look for this line to go back up again.”
Other games that have seen sizable moves at Wynn Las Vegas, which posts college lines each Sunday, earlier than most Las Vegas books:
• Notre Dame opened as 13-point road chalk against Syracuse, but was bet down to a 10-point fave by Friday afternoon.
• New Mexico is up to a 10.5-point home fave against San Jose State, after opening at -8.5.
• UCLA, which suffered a heartbreaking loss to Stanford last week (along with a terrible beat for its bettors), has been bet from an 11.5-point home favorite up to a 14-point chalk against Arizona.
• Southern California, which opened -7.5 against visiting Arizona State, is now at -10.
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