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**Udog** · 09-13-2016, 10:41 AM

NFL Week 2 Opening Line Report: Packers will help open Vikings' new stadium as road faves

These NFC North rivals are both coming off season-opening victories and will next square off under the Sunday night spotlight at the Vikings’ brand-spanking new U.S. Bank Stadium.

Week 1 of the NFL season is almost in the books, save for the two Monday night contests. We discuss the Week 2 opening lines with Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology, and Peter Childs, risk management supervisor for offshore site Sportsbook.ag.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+2.5)

These NFC North rivals are both coming off season-opening victories and will next square off under the Sunday night spotlight at the Vikings’ brand-spanking new U.S. Bank Stadium. Green Bay edged a game Jacksonville squad 27-23 laying 3.5 points on the road Sunday, while Minnesota bested host Tennessee 25-16 as 2.5-point chalk.

“We opened Packers -2.5 as they travel on back-to-back weeks,” Childs said. “The Packers weren’t at all impressive in their game against the Jags and easily could have lost. That said, the Vikings did all their scoring on defense, and regardless of who’s starting at quarterback against Green Bay, we see them struggling big time to score.

“The Packers, especially Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson, looked a bit rusty. I believe they’ll work that out and play a much better game in Week 2. And they’d better, as the Vikings have arguably the best defense in the NFL this year.”

CG Technology also opened the Packers at -2.5.

“Green Bay is close to a touchdown better, but the Vikings’ prowess at home gives them the benefit of 3.5 points,” Simbal said.

Childs added a few other factors to note for this contest.

“It’s a rivalry game, Sunday night game, first regular-season game in the Vikings’ new stadium, so the place is going to be nuts,” he said. “The public will be squarely on the Packers here, so unless the sharps get in line to back the Vikings, this line could easily get to Packers -3.”

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-4)

New England is already 1-0 SU and ATS without the suspended Tom Brady, against likely the toughest opponent it will see while its star quarterback sits out a four-game suspension. On Sunday night at Arizona, the Patriots went off as 9-point underdogs and came away with a suspenseful 23-21 outright victory.

Miami also went on the road and played a very good opponent to nearly a standstill, but didn’t get the better end of the score. The Dolphins lost to Seattle 12-10 as a hefty 10.5-point underdog.

It doesn’t get easier for Miami in New England’s home opener.

“Without Brady and Gronkowski, the Pats are about 0.5 to 1 point better,” Simbal said. “Add in a field goal for home field to get to the opening number.”

With the Pats playing Sunday night, Sportsbook.ag held off on the opening line.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)

Pittsburgh is in one of two games today that wrap up Week 1, traveling to D.C to take on the Washington Redskins. Cincinnati, meanwhile, snuck out of MetLife Stadium with a 23-22 victory over the New York Jets on Sunday, with a last-minute field goal providing a win and cover for the 1-point underdog.

“These teams are about even, so the Steelers get the nod for the home-field advantage,” Simbal said of the opener at CG books in Las Vegas, including The Cosmopolitan, Venetian and the M.

Since the Steelers haven’t played yet, Sportsbook.ag opted to wait on its opening line.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (-3)

But for bad late clock management, the Cowboys could very well have started out 1-0 under rookie quarterback Dak Prescott, subbing for the injured Tony Romo. Alas, Dallas lost to the New York Giants 20-19 as a 1-point home fave.

Now, the Pokes hit the road for another NFC East Division matchup. Washington hasn’t yet taken the field in Week 1, hosting Pittsburgh in one of the two Monday night matchups.

“The Cowboys looked good with Prescott,” Simbal said. “On a neutral field, these teams are even, so the Redskins get a field goal for home-field advantage.”

Childs said Sportsbook.ag will wait on its opening number, since Washington is playing tonight.

**Udog** · 09-13-2016, 10:46 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 2

Thursday, September 15

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NY JETS (0 - 1) at BUFFALO (0 - 1) - 9/15/2016, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 41-23 ATS (+15.7 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
NY JETS are 49-30 ATS (+16.0 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 4-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 4-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, September 18

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TENNESSEE (0 - 1) at DETROIT (1 - 0) - 9/18/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 4-19 ATS (-16.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 45-26 ATS (+16.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
DETROIT is 27-48 ATS (-25.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 56-80 ATS (-32.0 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 126-161 ATS (-51.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KANSAS CITY (1 - 0) at HOUSTON (1 - 0) - 9/18/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 2-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 2-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (0 - 1) at NEW ENGLAND (1 - 0) - 9/18/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 91-66 ATS (+18.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 173-133 ATS (+26.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-2 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 2-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (1 - 0) at CLEVELAND (0 - 1) - 9/18/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 2-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (1 - 0) at PITTSBURGH (1 - 0) - 9/18/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 68-94 ATS (-35.4 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 96-67 ATS (+22.3 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 48-28 ATS (+17.2 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 84-59 ATS (+19.1 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-1 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (0 - 1) at WASHINGTON (0 - 1) - 9/18/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 30-50 ATS (-25.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 54-88 ATS (-42.8 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 79-109 ATS (-40.9 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 79-109 ATS (-40.9 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 79-109 ATS (-40.9 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 2-2 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 2-2 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (0 - 1) at NY GIANTS (1 - 0) - 9/18/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 52-32 ATS (+16.8 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 0-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 0) at CAROLINA (0 - 1) - 9/18/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (1 - 0) at ARIZONA (0 - 1) - 9/18/2016, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SEATTLE (11 - 7) at LA RAMS (7 - 9) - 9/18/2016, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 50-73 ATS (-30.3 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 171-214 ATS (-64.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 171-214 ATS (-64.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 123-169 ATS (-62.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 55-83 ATS (-36.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS is 31-51 ATS (-25.1 Units) in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 3-1 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 3-1 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (8 - 8) at DENVER (15 - 4) - 9/18/2016, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (8 - 8) at OAKLAND (7 - 9) - 9/18/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 70-97 ATS (-36.7 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 70-97 ATS (-36.7 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 54-77 ATS (-30.7 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
OAKLAND is 70-97 ATS (-36.7 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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JACKSONVILLE (5 - 11) at SAN DIEGO (4 - 12) - 9/18/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 25-3 ATS (+21.7 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 2-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 2-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (11 - 7) at MINNESOTA (11 - 6) - 9/18/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 2-2 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, September 19

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PHILADELPHIA (7 - 9) at CHICAGO (6 - 10) - 9/19/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 43-64 ATS (-27.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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**Udog** · 09-13-2016, 10:47 AM

NFL

Week 2

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Trend Report
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Thursday, September 15

8:25 PM
NY JETS vs. BUFFALO
NY Jets are 1-3-2 ATS in their last 6 games on the road
NY Jets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games

Sunday, September 18

1:00 PM
DALLAS vs. WASHINGTON
Dallas is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington4-1-1 SU in its last 6 games
Washington6-2-1 SU in its last 9 games at home

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. CAROLINA
San Francisco is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Carolina's last 16 games when playing San Francisco
Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Giants
NY Giants are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing New Orleans
NY Giants are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing New Orleans

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. DETROIT
Tennessee is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. HOUSTON
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Houston
Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Houston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. NEW ENGLAND
Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Miami is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
New England is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games
New England is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing Miami

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. PITTSBURGH
Cincinnati is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 10 games when playing Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. CLEVELAND
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Cleveland is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games

4:05 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. ARIZONA
Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games at home
Arizona is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games at home

4:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. LOS ANGELES
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 8 games when playing Los Angeles
Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
Los Angeles is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
Los Angeles is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle

4:25 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. SAN DIEGO
Jacksonville is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Jacksonville is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games
San Diego is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home

4:25 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. DENVER
Indianapolis is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Indianapolis's last 11 games when playing Denver
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Denver is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing Indianapolis

4:25 PM
ATLANTA vs. OAKLAND
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Oakland is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games at home

8:30 PM
GREEN BAY vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 6 games on the road
Green Bay is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Minnesota's last 16 games when playing at home against Green Bay

Monday, September 19

8:30 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games

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**Udog** · 09-13-2016, 05:10 PM

NFL Week 2 lines that make you go hmmm...

Though the Patriots proved their worth in the first week, we see money on the healthy road team at this level and that’s where the value is.

With a week of NFL action under our belts and first impressions across the board, we’ll venture into Week 2 of the season with a little more confidence. Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up the schedule and picks out some of the lines making him go “hmmmm…” in Week 2:

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-6.5, 41.5)

When making the odds on teams that can be severely impacted by key injuries, we often see those teams perform well under the initial pressure in that first game. However, more times than not, those teams will not have that same success in the weeks after for a couple of good reasons.

First, those options are still not available and they mean a lot more to teams over the long haul than just one game. And two, opposing teams can concentrate on the fewer, less talented options that teams are forced to play and study the strategy of the first game with a solid game plan of their own. We’re looking at you Patriots.

This series has split the past three seasons with each team taking care of business when they were at home. This year, with the circumstances as they are (Brady suspended, Gronkowski on the mend), we liken the underdogs to make a statement this week. The game opened at New England -5.5 and quickly moved to -6.5.

We see a spirited Dolphin team taking its close loss in Seattle and using that as fodder to roll over another quality game here in New England. The Patriots, and all concerned, won in Arizona but we see a regression in the Patriots play with a first home opener for Jimmy Garoppolo and a red flag for a possible letdown game. He’s going to have a tough time repeating his first performance and Miami will have time to study what the Pats did and be ready for the challenge.

Bettors didn’t like New England and they paid for that opinion mightily in Week 1. Though the Patriots proved their worth in the first week, we see money on the healthy road team at this level and that’s where the value is. If this game goes to -7, even better. But waiting too long you may miss the high point before wise money comes on the dog Sunday.

New Orleans Saints at New York Giants (-5, 52.5)

When it comes to the line for Saints at Giants, the early move is typical of a dilemma often faced by oddsmakers when trying to establish a good sendout.

This game opened New York -3.5 and quickly balloon to -5 in no time. Often we look at a football matchup and we know the line should either be -3.5 or -6. Not -3.5 or -4, but -3.5 or -6. It’s weird but it is what it is. This is one of those games.

New Orleans is a notoriously slow starting team on the road every year it seems. That would give pause for the -6 but the Saints played well enough where I can see why the number came out so low. That obviously fooled no one betting this one out of the gate.

Standing on -5, or as the layman would say, a dead number (as a 5-point difference in a football score is not a common result) the value was at the lower -3.5, that most bettors missed. However, I feel this number will go up even more before you see any Saints money trying to equal out the ledger for the bookmaker.

So in that reference and framework, you still have good value at -5. We always like a team with incentive and between these two, the Giants had a great road win against their hated rivals and come home to an appreciative fan base. The Saints fell on a dramatic last-second, game-ending play and have to climb back on the horse on the road. With that all said, if you’re going to grab the Giants, do it now at the lowest number you’ll get in this game from here on out.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+2.5, 44.5)

Unlike other sports, football doesn’t see a lot of key players moving to other teams in the offseason due to trades and the like. For that reason, both bettors and bookmakers have a good understanding of what to expect from most teams from year to year. So how much do you factor in history compared to recent performances of two teams playing each other that have many of the same elements as games before?

As an oddsmaker, I have to look at those factors as both bettor and oddsmaker before sending out just any old number. We know handicappers look at numbers, lots of them and all are from historical viewpoints. I think current trends are more important but we only have one game to look at.

Green Bay is at Minnesota this week and these two have been battling it out forever. In the past few years, the Packers have held a distinct advantage. This line came out at Green Bay -3 (Even) to -2.5. Again, you know me by now, I like those low road favorites, particularly in this game.

Green Bay picked up a nice win at Jacksonville. It was a fun game and it ended up right on the closing number so all the results were pretty much anticipated. Minnesota’s win, however, had a lot of red flags.

With a second-tier quarterback, the Vikings showed well statistically in the air but that was a result from a dismal ground game against a Tennessee team not known for its defense. Both of Minnesota’s touchdowns came about defensively. Zero paydirt from the offense. Nada. My guess would have been this number would have opened in the -3 to-3.5 range and gone up from there. Be it as it may, we are handed a Packers -2.5 number that can’t be overlooked with what each team will bring into this game.

I don’t think the Vikings can keep up with the Packers offense. This -2.5 seems like a take and if you feel like me, you’ll grab this early in the week and laugh at those who take the -3 late. If you think the home dog is a play, you may want to wait until game day when you’ll get the most bang for your buck.

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears (-3, 42.5)

Monday’s contest between the Eagles and Bears wraps up Week 2 with a puzzling number. I would have insisted this game be a near pick’em or at the worst, what the offshores put out at Chicago -1. I thought that was a pretty solid number. But that -1 already jumped to Chicago -3.

I’m not sure what I’m missing but if the sportsbooks need Philly by kickoff Monday night, I’ll tip my hat to the bettors in this one. Chicago showed nothing in the preseason and came up flat against Houston in Week 1.

Philadelphia has some bite through four meaningless preseason wins and a season-opening victory at dismal Cleveland. The Eagles defense looks strong and should take care of business. Not only do I think the Eagles are the better team, but bettors can get three points (and more) at this time. I’m not sure how one could look at this game and think Chicago is the value unless you’re playing the “due factor”, which has stung many a bettor in the past. I don’t hang with that. I think this number was good with the opening line at worst but if you can get +3 points and the Eagles, swoop it up.

**Udog** · 09-13-2016, 05:21 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 2

Thurs – Sept. 15

NY Jets at Buffalo, 8:25 PM ET
New York: 1-5 ATS after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game
Buffalo: 7-4 ATS after playing their last game on the road

Sun – Sept. 18

Tennessee at Detroit, 1:00 PM ET
Tennessee: 1-11 ATS off a home loss
Detroit: 5-3 ATS off a non-conference game

Kansas City at Houston, 1:00 PM ET
Kansas City: 4-12 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
Houston: 8-2 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less

Miami at New England, 1:00 PM ET
Miami: 0-7 ATS in road games versus division opponents
New England: 8-1 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game

Baltimore at Cleveland, 1:00 PM ET
Baltimore: 4-2 ATS after a win by 6 or less points
Cleveland: 2-4 ATS as a home underdog

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, 1:00 PM ET
Cincinnati: 6-1 ATS after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game
Pittsburgh: 17-19 ATS after playing on Monday night football

Dallas at Washington, 1:00 PM ET
Dallas: 9-2 ATS in games played on a grass field
Washington: 1-6 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less

New Orleans at NY Giants, 1:00 PM ET
New Orleans: 32-55 ATS after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game
New York: 25-11 ATS off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog

San Francisco at Carolina, 1:00 PM ET
San Francisco: 3-8 ATS as a road underdog
Carolina: 5-1 ATS against NFC West division opponents

Tampa Bay at Arizona, 4:05 PM ET
Tampa Bay: 32-14 ATS after scoring 30 points or more last game
Arizona: 13-26 ATS in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better

Seattle at Los Angeles, 4:05 PM ET
Seattle: 6-2 ATS off a non-conference game
Los Angeles: 17-27 ATS in the first two weeks of the season

Indianapolis at Denver, 4:25 PM ET
Indianapolis: 37-46 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game
Denver: 7-1 ATS after a win by 6 or less points

Atlanta at Oakland, 4:25 PM ET
Atlanta: 45-24 ATS in road games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game
Oakland: 19-38 ATS off a upset win as an underdog

Jacksonville at San Diego, 4:25 PM ET
Jacksonville: 1-7 ATS off a non-conference game
San Diego: 25-3 ATS against AFC South division opponents

Green Bay at Minnesota, 8:30 PM ET
Green Bay: 3-5 ATS off a non-conference game
Minnesota: 17-6 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread

Mon – Sept. 19

Philadelphia at Chicago, 8:30 PM ET
Philadelphia: 0-3 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game
Chicago: 27-24 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less

**Udog** · 09-14-2016, 08:09 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Some thoughts on this week’s NFL card……..

— Only three games this week between 1-0 teams: Chiefs-Texans, Packers-Vikings, Bengals-Steelers.

— Jets @ Bills– Rex Ryan against his old team. Ryan Fitzpatrick started 53 games for Buffalo, most he has played for any of his many teams.

— Cowboys @ Redskins– Guess Dez Bryant stays on left side of the field.

— Seahawks @ Rams– Rams’ last home game in Coliseum was in 1979.

— Packers @ Vikings– Minnesota’s new dome is christened.

— Rookie QBs Wentz/Prescott each get their first road start, Wentz in Chicago Monday night, Prescott against the Redskins.

**Udog** · 09-14-2016, 08:26 AM

NFL line watch: Can the Raiders continue to live up to their lofty expectations?

Oakland QB Derek Carr was very impressive in Week 1 vs. the Saints, throwing for 319 yards and no interceptions – with completions to nine different receivers.

Game to bet on now

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-3)

Seems like every game between AFC North teams (except for the Browns) has a field goal line, and this one is no different. Both teams are coming off impressive victories – the Bengals sorting things out after a slow start and beating the Jets in New York; and the Steelers breaking open a moderately tight game and winning in Washington. Cincinnati is the defending division champions (12-4), but the smart money seems to be on the Steelers to get the title back this season. In fact, many bettors like the Steelers as the second-best team in the conference, behind New England. This line opened at 3, has stayed at 3 and is unlikely to move.

Game to wait on

Atlanta at Oakland (-4.5)

This one has already been bet down from 5.5, and with heavy money (2/3 of wagering) on the Raiders, there is a chance it could move again. The Raiders opened a lot of eyes by going for two and beating the Saints in New Orleans this past Sunday, but equally as impressive was Oakland QB Derek Carr, who threw for 319 yards and no interceptions – with completions to nine different receivers. The Raiders also outrushed the Saints 2-1 (167-88) and served notice that, what is expected to be, their final year in the Bay Area before a move to Las Vegas will be successful. Four of Atlanta’s next five games are on the road, with two of the games on the West Coast and another to Denver in as brutal a stretch as any team has this season.

Total to watch

Tampa Bay at Arizona (50)

The Cardinals will no doubt be spending a lot of time in practice this week to locate their long passing game - which the Patriots neutralized on Sunday night. Carson Palmer completed only three passes for more than 20 yards in the game, New England forcing them to settle for underneath tosses. Zona needs to connect on a few early vs. the Bucs to get the feeling back. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is still feeling its oats after putting up 31 points at Atlanta, and feels it has a future MVP in QB Jameis Winston (28 for 33 and four TDs) vs. the Falcons. 50 might be a low number for these two teams in what has all the makings of a shootout.

**Udog** · 09-14-2016, 03:51 PM

NFL

Wednesday, September 14

Bills WR Sammy Watkins listed as questionable and LT Cordy Glenn ruled OUT for Thursday's game vs Jets. BUF +1

**Udog** · 09-15-2016, 08:45 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 2

Thursday, September 15

NY Jets @ Buffalo

Game 101-102
September 15, 2016 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
133.968
Buffalo
130.921
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Jets
by 3
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Jets
Pick
40
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
Over

Sunday, September 18

Tennessee @ Detroit

Game 261-262
September 18, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
125.301
Detroit
127.930
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 2 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 6
47
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+6); Over

Atlanta @ Oakland

Game 283-284
September 18, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
125.034
Oakland
133.592
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 8 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
by 4 1/2
50
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(-4 1/2); Under

Kansas City @ Houston

Game 263-264
September 18, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
137.011
Houston
133.903
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 3
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 3
43
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(+3); Over

Jacksonville @ San Diego

Game 285-286
September 18, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
132.516
San Diego
130.356
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 2
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego
by 3
47
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(+3); Over

Miami @ New England

Game 265-266
September 18, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
128.913
New England
139.720
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 11
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 6 1/2
41 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-6 1/2); Over

Green Bay @ Minnesota

Game 287-288
September 18, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
134.309
Minnesota
135.811
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 1 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 2 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(+2 1/2); Under

Baltimore @ Cleveland

Game 267-268
September 18, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
131.457
Cleveland
123.018
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 8 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 6 1/2
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(-6 1/2); Over

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh

Game 269-270
September 18, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
139.575
Pittsburgh
137.389
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 3 1/2
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(+3 1/2); Over

Dallas @ Washington

Game 271-272
September 18, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
130.797
Washington
129.374
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 1 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 3
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+3); Under

New Orleans @ NY Giants

Game 273-274
September 18, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
126.828
NY Giants
133.971
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Giants
by 7
60
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Giants
by 4 1/2
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(-4 1/2); Over

San Francisco @ Carolina

Game 275-276
September 18, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
125.352
Carolina
142.710
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 17 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 13
45
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-13); Over

Tampa Bay @ Arizona

Game 277-278
September 18, 2016 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
131.811
Arizona
135.965
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 4
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 7
50
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+7); Over

Seattle @ Los Angeles

Game 279-280
September 18, 2016 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
136.657
Los Angeles
126.279
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 10
33
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 7
38 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-7); Under

Indianapolis @ Denver

Game 281-282
September 18, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
132.260
Denver
135.399
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 3
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 6 1/2
46
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(+6 1/2); Under

Monday, September 19

Philadelphia @ Chicago

Game 289-290
September 19, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
131.278
Chicago
129.341
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 2
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 3
43
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+3); Under

**Udog** · 09-15-2016, 08:47 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 2

Thursday's Game
NJ Jets (0-1) @ Buffalo (0-1)– Buffalo ran only 48 plays for 160 yards in 13-7 loss at Baltimore; they are 15-8 vs spread in last 23 home games; they won last five series games (both 22-17 LY); home side won six of last eight series games. Jets lost last three visits here, by 19-23-5 points. Bills are 6-2 in last eight home openers (7-2 vs spread in last nine); they’re 4-1 as a favorite in HOs. Jets are 14-5 vs spread in last 19 road openers, covering last three in spite of going 1-4 SU in last five. Jets covered seven of last eight as an underdog in AO’s- since 2011, they’re 10-14-3 as road dogs. Gang Green lost last week despite seven sacks, 52 rushing yards. Bills are 13-8 in last 21 games with spread of 3 or less; Jets are 5-8-1 in last 14. Last three Buffalo home openers stayed under, as did six of Jets’ last nine road openers.

**Udog** · 09-15-2016, 08:51 AM

NFL

Thursday, September 15

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night NFL betting preview: Jets at Bills
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Jets hope to turn things around against the Bills, who they've lost 5 in a row to SU & ATS.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (+1, 40)

The Buffalo Bills' offense looked anemic in a season-opening loss and is in need of a jolt as the club hosts coach Rex Ryan's former team in the AFC East-rival New York Jets on Thursday night. Buffalo recorded just 11 first downs, 48 plays behind center and 160 yards of total offense in a 13-7 setback to Baltimore on Sunday.

"Tape doesn't lie,” Ryan told the New York Post on Monday. "We really struggled and we clearly have to get better in a hurry ... and, oh by the way, we're playing against even a better defense (in the Jets)." While New York's aggressive front recorded seven sacks in its 23-22 season-opening loss to Cincinnati, veteran cornerback Darrelle Revis granted A.J. Green a cushy stay on Revis Island and could receive the call to shadow Sammy Watkins. The third-year wideout, who insisted to ESPN that he'll "definitely play" on Thursday despite nursing a sore left foot, reeled in 11 receptions for 136 yards as the Bills posted a 22-17 victory over the Jets in January for their fifth straight win in the series. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw three fourth-quarter interceptions versus his former team as New York was derailed in its bid to clinch its first playoff berth since 2010.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The Bills opened this game favored by a field goal at home, but since then bettors and injury concerns has caused the line to jump the fence to Jets -1.

As for the total, it has come down a fair amount since opening at 42.5 with the current total sitting at 40. Check out the complete line history here.

POWER RANKINGS: Jets (-1) - Bills (+1.5) + home field (-3) = Bills +0.5

INJURY REPORT:

Jets - WR Q. Enuwa (probable Thursday, ribs), LB B. Carter (questionable Thursday, shoulder), S C. Pryor (questionable Thursday, undisclosed), DE M. Wilkerson (questionable Thursday, toe), TE K. Davis (questionable Thursday, ribs), LB D. Harris (questionable Thursday, shoulder), CB D. Roberts (doubtful Thursday, foot), DL J. Jenkins (doubtful Thursday, calf).

Bills - WR S. Watkins (questionable Thursday, foot), RB J. Williams (questionable Thursday, ribs), CB K. Seymour (questionable Thursday, hamstring), WR W. Powell (questinable Thursday, undisclosed), Qb C. Jones (questionable Sunday, shoulder), TE J. Dray (questionable Thursday, ankle), DT J. Worthy (questionable Thursday, knee), TE C. Clay (questionable Thursday, knee), T C. Glenn (out Thursday, ankle), S C. Anderson (out Thursday, foot).

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a beautiful night for football at Orchard Park. The forecast calls for clear skies with temperatures in the low 60's during the game. There could be a six to seven mil per hour wind gusting from east to west, towards the northwestern endzzone.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "On Monday morning we were sitting at Bills -2.5, but were taking all Jets action at that number (over 90 percent) forcing us to go move all the way to the Jets -1, where we were still seeing over 80 percent of the action on the Jets. We are now Jets -1.5 with just under 85 percent of the action on the Jets We have also moved the total down from 42.5 to 40.5 where we are seeing just under 75 percent on the Over."

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "For the second consecutive season the Bills and Jets meet on a Thursday night. Both teams are coming off shaky week one performances. Buffalo's simplistic road game plan at Baltimore back-fired as penalties ruined their chances. Meanwhile, the Jets could not avoid big mistakes on their home field against the powerful Bengals."

"With a short week in a division game Vegas has this setup with a common resulting number of one-point in the Jets favor (four games decided by a point week one)." - Covers Expert Zack Cimini.

ABOUT THE JETS (0-1, 0-1 ATS, 1-0 O/U): New York's offense received mixed reviews in the opener as versatile veteran Matt Forte (96 rushing, 59 receiving) amassed 155 yards from scrimmage in his debut, but former Chicago Bears teammate Brandon Marshall was limited to just three catches and committed a costly drop in the fourth quarter. The 32-year-old Marshall downplayed any residual issues with an ailing hip and looks to get back on track versus Buffalo, against which he has reeled in a touchdown pass in each of his last four meetings. Leonard Williams recorded 2 1/2 sacks in the opener, fellow defensive tackle Steve McLendon added two and defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson had 1 1/2 for the Jets, who will see Sheldon Richardson make his 2016 debut after serving a one-game suspension for violating the personal-conduct policy.

ABOUT THE BILLS (0-1, 0-1 ATS, 0-1 O/U): Ryan dismissed the possibility of shutting down Watkins after the New York Daily News reported that the move could be done as a precaution following the wideout's admission that his surgically repaired foot was sore. Watkins had four catches for a team-high 43 yards against the Ravens, but Tyrod Taylor only connected on 15 of 22 tosses for 111 yards in the game. LeSean McCoy, who recorded his 60th career touchdown in the opener, gashed the Jets for 112 yards rushing and five catches for 47 yards receiving in Buffalo's 22-17 win on Nov. 12.

TRENDS:

* Jets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games in Buffalo.
* Bills finished last season 4-0 ATS in their final four home games.
* Under is 5-1 in the Bills' last six Thursday games.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five games in Buffalo.

CONSENSUS: The public is backing the shot road fave in this spot, with 60 percent of wagers backing the Jets. As for the total, 56 percent of wagers are on the Under.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 09-16-2016, 08:27 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 2

Odell Beckham Jr. hauled in a ridiculous 8 receptions for 150 yards and 3 TDs last time he played the Saints.

New Orleans Saints at New York Giants (-4.5, 52.5)

Giants’ elite receivers vs. Saints’ dreadful secondary

This game has the highest Vegas total of the week, and with good reason: when these two teams met at the Mercedes Benz Superdome last season, they combined for 101 points. Drew Brees and Eli Manning combined to throw an absurd 13 touchdown passes - and while it would be unreasonable to expect a carbon copy this weekend, don’t be surprised if the two gunslingers come close to combining for double-digit passing scores yet again.

The focus in this one will be on the Saints’ unproven secondary, which is expected to include a pair of undrafted free-agent cornerbacks in Ken Crawley and De’Vante Harris. None of New Orleans’ three CBs had played an NFL snap prior to last weekend’s 35-34 loss to visiting Oakland; Crawley, who replaced Delvin Breaux after the veteran suffered a broken leg, posted the lowest ProFootballFocus score of any defensive back in Week 1 after getting roasted for six catches and a score on seven targets.

This game should see a boatload of points, given the potency of both offenses and that New Orleans will likely find themselves in catch-up mode for the entire game. Look for Eli Manning to punish the Saints' secondary, with all of his receiving options healthy and set to contribute. Odell Beckham posted an 8-150-3 line in their previous meeting, and that was with Breaux on the field. It’s going to be ugly for fans of defense - and heaven on earth for fans who love scoring.

Daily fantasy watch: Odell Beckham Jr.

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (-13.5, 45.5)

Panthers’ clock control vs. 49ers’ possession struggles

There’s a lot to like about Carolina this week, even though the Panthers are giving away nearly two touchdowns to visiting San Franciso. The 49ers are facing a short week in which they’ll cross the country to play a 10 am PT game against a defending Super Bowl finalist playing on nine days’ rest. And if that isn’t enough to convince you, consider that the two teams couldn’t be further apart when it comes to ball control.

The Panthers are coming off a sensational season buoyed at least in part by terrific possession metrics. Carolina led the league in time of possession in 2015 at 32:12 per game - one second better than the runner-up and division rival Atlanta Falcons. By comparison, San Francisco ranked 31st out of 32 teams at 26:23. “But Monty!” you say. “They run a Chip Kelly offense now!” That’s true - and the Kelly-led Eagles were the only team to have the ball less (25:51). Kelly finished last in TOP in each of his three seasons in Philadelphia.

Look for the Panthers to use a stout ground game and a dynamic-enough passing approach to keep the offense on the field and wear down the 49ers defense. And despite losing Josh Norman in the offseason, the Carolina defense should be plenty good enough to choke San Francisco’s meager offense into submission. It’s difficult to score points if you don’t have the ball - and the 49ers should find that out in a big way this weekend against a team that controlled the clock like no other last season.

Daily fantasy watch: Carolina D/ST

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-6, 45)

Broncos’ impressive offense vs. Colts’ dreadful D

Much has been made about how this year’s incarnation of the Broncos can’t hope to compete for the Super Bowl title with an unproven QB at the helm. And while it remains to be seen whether Trevor Siemian can lead Denver back to the title game, fans and bettors alike have to love what they saw out of the Broncos in a Week 1 win over Carolina. And the best part is, things should get a whole lot better in Week 2 against an Indianapolis defense that looked putrid in its opener.

Let’s start with the Denver base three-wide offense, which featured seven players that posted PFF grades above 75 in Week 1. Center Matt Paradis (89.6) was particularly effective, creating plenty of room for running back C.J. Anderson to roam. Contrast that to what we saw from Indianapolis against visiting Detroit - eight members of the Colts’ base defense posted PFF ratings below 50, which is difficult for a professional football team to do in any given week.

The Broncos should easily carve up the Indianapolis defense on all levels. Siemian is in for a big game here, as are Demaryius Thomas - if he plays - and Emmanuel Sanders. The star of this one, however, should be Anderson, whose offensive line has a major advantage over the Colts’ offensive unit - particularly on the right side, where he’ll encounter three players who graded lower than 41.

Daily fantasy watch: C.J. Anderson

Atlanta Falcons at Oakland Raiders (-4.5, 49.5)

Raiders’ undisciplined play vs. Falcons’ measured approach

“Moxie” is an under-utilized word these days, but it’s hard to find a better term to describe Raiders head coach Jack Del Rio’s decision to go for two with his Raiders trailing by a single point late in New Orleans. Yet, while the decision proved to be the right one, it masked what was an otherwise mediocre performance from a Raiders team that had better figure out how to be more disciplined. Hope for a turnaround begins at home in Week 2 against a relatively measured Falcons team.

Oakland was one of the most undisciplined units in football last season, ranking third in the league in accepted penalties (138) and sixth in accepted yards (1,102). That pattern continued with emphasis in the Raiders’ Week 1 triumph over the Saints, as they incurred 14 penalties for a whopping 141 yards - including five offensive holding calls on five different players. D.J. Hayden was the worst offender on the defense, picking up two pass interference penalties and a holding call.

The Raiders might get away with it against weaker defensive teams like New Orleans, but a continued rash of penalties could torpedo what is set up to be a solid season. The Falcons were the fifth-least penalized team in the league in 2015 (100), and that disparity could result in major field position shifts Sunday afternoon. Oakland has a shot at a playoff berth this season, but if it can’t keep the flags in the referees’ pockets, it could be in for a rude awakening.

Daily fantasy watch: Julio Jones

**Udog** · 09-19-2016, 07:02 AM

NFL

Monday, September 19

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday Night Football betting preview and odds: Eagles at Bears
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Carson Wentz, the No. 2 overall pick overall pick out of North Dakota State, earned raved reviews nationally after guiding Philadelphia to a 29-10 win over Cleveland in its season opener.

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears (-3.5, 42)

Carson Wentz showed he could handle the big stage in his much-ballyhooed NFL debut, but the lights will be even brighter when he leads the Philadelphia Eagles on the road to face the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football. Wentz, the No. 2 overall pick overall pick out of North Dakota State, earned raved reviews nationally after guiding Philadelphia to a 29-10 win over Cleveland in its season opener.

Wentz was expected to open the season on the bench but was thrust into the starter's role following the abrupt trade of Sam Bradford to the Minnesota Vikings and responded with 278 yards passing and a pair of touchdowns against the Browns. "It looks like Philadelphia's going to be very well rewarded for the risk they took on draft day, giving up a lot of stuff to get this guy," Bears defensive coordinator Vic Fangio said of Wentz. "The guy's very impressive." Chicago was not that impressive in its season opener, failing to score in the second half in a 23-14 loss at Houston. Playing at home is not necessarily an advantage for the Bears, who won only once at Soldier Field en route to a 5-11 record last season.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Bears opened the week at -2.5 and throughout the week the spread took a couple of half point jumps to leapfrog the key number of -3. The Bears went from -2.5 to -3 late Sunday night (just after the line was released) and moved from -3 to -3.5 on Thursday afternoon.

The total hit the board at 42.5 and was steady for the early part of the week before being dropped to the current number of 42 on Thursday evening. Check out the complete line history here.

POWER RANKINGS: Philadelphia (+3.5) - Chicago (+2.5) + home field (-3) = Chicago -4

KEY INJURIES:

Eagles - WR B. Treggs (Probable Monday, knee), TE T. Burton (Probable Monday, calf), T L. Johnson (Probable Monday, suspension), CB L. McKelvin (Out Monday, hamstring), TE Z. Ertz (Out Monday, collarbone).

Bears - CB K. Fuller (Questionable Monday, knee), S D. Bush (Questionable Monday, hamstring), S H. Jones-Quartey (Questionable Monday, leg), WR M. Wilson (Out Monday, foot).

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for the Soldier Field area of Chicago is calling for clear skies all day until right around kickoff when there is a slight (15-20 percent) chance of some thunderstorms developing. The temperatures will be seasonal (high 70's) and humidity levels will be high (70-70 percent). Wind will not be a factor at only 5 mph.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, 0-1 O/U): While Wentz is the new darling of Philadelphia -- his jersey was the No. 1 seller nationally -- after his starry debut, there are major injury concerns on both sides of the ball for the Eagles. Tight end Zach Ertz, who had six catches for 58 yards, suffered a rib displacement under his collarbone and did not practice again Friday, likely robbing Wentz of a safety valve that hauled in 75 receptions in 2015. Cornerback Leodis McKelvin also did not practice with a strained hamstring, putting further stress on a position where Philadelphia lacked depth after trading Eric Rowe to New England. Jordan Matthews had a big first game with seven catches for 114 yards and a TD.

ABOUT THE BEARS (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 0-1 O/U): Chicago's offensive line struggled to protect quarterback Jay Cutler, who was sacked five times and pressured repeatedly while throwing for 216 yards with one touchdown and a costly interception. Speedy wide receiver Kevin White, the No. 7 overall pick in 2015 who missed his entire rookie campaign with a shin injury, had three receptions for 34 yards in his NFL debut and accepted the blame for running the incorrect route on Cutler's pick. The Bears' defense, which ranked in the bottom third of the league against the rush (120.9 yards per game) last season, allowed Houston to control the ball for more than 36 minutes. Alshon Jeffery led the offense with four catches for 105 yards.

TRENDS:

* Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 2.
* Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
* Under is 8-1 in Eagles last 9 games following a straight up win.
* Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is supporting the road underdog Eagles at a rate of 63 percent and the Over is picking up the majority of the totals wagers with 68 percent.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 09-19-2016, 07:13 AM

NFL Opening Line Report: Key injuries are the main factor heading into Week 3

"(Jacoby Brissett) looked awful coming off the bench, and now he has to face a very good Texans defense led by J.J. Watt. Good luck, Jacoby!"

Injuries are clearly going to be a factor for oddsmakers in Week 3 of the NFL season. We talk about a few of this week’s opening lines with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor for offshore site Sportsbook.ag, and Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology in Las Vegas.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (+2.5)

The injury bug bit New England at the worst possible position – quarterback. Jimmy Garoppolo, subbing while Tom Brady serves his four-game Deflategate suspension, suffered an injury to his right (throwing) shoulder in Sunday’s 31-24 home victory over Miami as a 5.5-point favorite.

Worse still, the Patriots (2-0 SU and ATS) are working on a short week, playing in the Thursday night contest. The Pats had to finish Sunday’s win with rookie Jacoby Brissett at QB, and wideout Julian Edelman was the emergency QB.

Meanwhile, Houston (2-0 SU and ATS) held off visiting Kansas City 19-12 Sunday as a 1-point underdog.

Because of New England’s QB situation, Childs opened Houston at -2.5 and expects that number might head up.

“Wow. This is the line we had to adjust the most, with Garoppolo going down and third-stringer Jacoby Brissett making his first start,” Childs said. “He looked awful coming off the bench, and now he has to face a very good Texans defense led by J.J. Watt. Good luck, Jacoby!

“We opened Texans -2.5, and I have a feeling we’ll be getting to them as a solid 3-point favorite sooner rather than later.”

CG also hung a line of Texans -2.5 at its sportsbooks, including The Cosmopolitan, M and Venetian.

“With the Patriots having questions at quarterback and likely no Rob Gronkowski, they are home ‘dogs,” Simbal said.

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (-6.5)

Defending NFC champion Carolina (1-1 SU and ATS) rebounded from its season-opening loss at Denver by rolling past San Francisco 46-27 laying 12 points at home Sunday. Meanwhile, Minnesota knocked off Green Bay 17-14 catching 1 point at home, but lost Adrian Peterson to a knee injury.

“The Panthers are slightly more than a field goal better than the Vikings, and Carolina takes on an extra 3 points for playing at home,” Simbal said.

Sportsbook.ag held off on its opening number because of Minnesota playing Sunday night.

Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)

The defending Super Bowl champion Broncos have picked up where they left off last year, with a dominant defense keying a 2-0 SU and ATS start. On Sunday, Denver had a pick-six and a fumble recovery for a touchdown that put away Indianapolis in a 34-20 win as a 6-point home fave.

Cincinnati (1-1 SU and ATS) fell at Pittsburgh 24-16 Sunday as a 3-point pup.

Sportsbook.ag installed Cincy as a 3.5-point chalk, but news later came out that Bengals QB Andy Dalton is questionable with an apparent ankle injury. So Childs took the game down late Sunday evening.

“It’s one of the better games, featuring two teams that were in the playoffs last year and with playoff expectations this year,” Childs said. “I’m certain the public will support the Broncos here, and the sharps are going to back the favorite (pending Dalton’s status).

“Most sharp bettors love fading rookie quarterbacks making their first road start, and that’s what the Broncos will be doing on Sunday. While Trevor Siemian isn’t a rookie, it’s his first road start, and I see him struggling here in this spot.”

Added Simbal, who also opened Cincinnati at -3.5: “It’s two very evenly matched teams, so the home team gets the home-field advantage edge.”

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-4)

The Giants are out of the gate 2-0 SU (1-1 ATS) with a second tight victory in as many weeks. New York held off New Orleans 16-13, failing to cash as a 3.5-point favorite. Meanwhile, Washington (0-2 SU and ATS) is still seeking its first win after Sunday’s 27-23 setback to Dallas as a 3.5-point home chalk.

“The ‘Skins are in a must, must-win spot, starting the season 0-2, with both those losses at home,” Childs said. “The Giants made a ton of offseason moves to improve their defense, and so far it’s paid off, holding their two opponents this season to just 19 and 13 points. Eli Manning really hasn’t lit the world on fire so far, and that’s a bit surprising, because he has weapons galore, especially at wide receiver.

“That said, it’s a heated NFC East rivalry game, and we hung the Giants -4. I suspect the public will fade the 0-2 ‘Skins and back the undefeated Giants. I see this game closing at 4.5.”

At CG books, the number opened at Giants -3.5.

“The Giants closed -4.5 (at CG books) against New Orleans,” Simbal said. “Washington is a point better than the Saints right now, so 3.5 is the result.”

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NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 2 (Thursday, September 15 - Monday, September 19)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 2 (Thursday, September 15 - Monday, September 19)

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