The Bum's 2016 NFL Sept. Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

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NFL

Thursday, September 15

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Thursday Night NFL betting preview: Jets at Bills
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The Jets hope to turn things around against the Bills, who they've lost 5 in a row to SU & ATS.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (+1, 40)

The Buffalo Bills' offense looked anemic in a season-opening loss and is in need of a jolt as the club hosts coach Rex Ryan's former team in the AFC East-rival New York Jets on Thursday night. Buffalo recorded just 11 first downs, 48 plays behind center and 160 yards of total offense in a 13-7 setback to Baltimore on Sunday.

"Tape doesn't lie,” Ryan told the New York Post on Monday. "We really struggled and we clearly have to get better in a hurry ... and, oh by the way, we're playing against even a better defense (in the Jets)." While New York's aggressive front recorded seven sacks in its 23-22 season-opening loss to Cincinnati, veteran cornerback Darrelle Revis granted A.J. Green a cushy stay on Revis Island and could receive the call to shadow Sammy Watkins. The third-year wideout, who insisted to ESPN that he'll "definitely play" on Thursday despite nursing a sore left foot, reeled in 11 receptions for 136 yards as the Bills posted a 22-17 victory over the Jets in January for their fifth straight win in the series. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw three fourth-quarter interceptions versus his former team as New York was derailed in its bid to clinch its first playoff berth since 2010.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The Bills opened this game favored by a field goal at home, but since then bettors and injury concerns has caused the line to jump the fence to Jets -1.

As for the total, it has come down a fair amount since opening at 42.5 with the current total sitting at 40. Check out the complete line history here.

POWER RANKINGS: Jets (-1) - Bills (+1.5) + home field (-3) = Bills +0.5

INJURY REPORT:

Jets - WR Q. Enuwa (probable Thursday, ribs), LB B. Carter (questionable Thursday, shoulder), S C. Pryor (questionable Thursday, undisclosed), DE M. Wilkerson (questionable Thursday, toe), TE K. Davis (questionable Thursday, ribs), LB D. Harris (questionable Thursday, shoulder), CB D. Roberts (doubtful Thursday, foot), DL J. Jenkins (doubtful Thursday, calf).

Bills - WR S. Watkins (questionable Thursday, foot), RB J. Williams (questionable Thursday, ribs), CB K. Seymour (questionable Thursday, hamstring), WR W. Powell (questinable Thursday, undisclosed), Qb C. Jones (questionable Sunday, shoulder), TE J. Dray (questionable Thursday, ankle), DT J. Worthy (questionable Thursday, knee), TE C. Clay (questionable Thursday, knee), T C. Glenn (out Thursday, ankle), S C. Anderson (out Thursday, foot).

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a beautiful night for football at Orchard Park. The forecast calls for clear skies with temperatures in the low 60's during the game. There could be a six to seven mil per hour wind gusting from east to west, towards the northwestern endzzone.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "On Monday morning we were sitting at Bills -2.5, but were taking all Jets action at that number (over 90 percent) forcing us to go move all the way to the Jets -1, where we were still seeing over 80 percent of the action on the Jets. We are now Jets -1.5 with just under 85 percent of the action on the Jets We have also moved the total down from 42.5 to 40.5 where we are seeing just under 75 percent on the Over."

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "For the second consecutive season the Bills and Jets meet on a Thursday night. Both teams are coming off shaky week one performances. Buffalo's simplistic road game plan at Baltimore back-fired as penalties ruined their chances. Meanwhile, the Jets could not avoid big mistakes on their home field against the powerful Bengals."

"With a short week in a division game Vegas has this setup with a common resulting number of one-point in the Jets favor (four games decided by a point week one)." - Covers Expert Zack Cimini.

ABOUT THE JETS (0-1, 0-1 ATS, 1-0 O/U): New York's offense received mixed reviews in the opener as versatile veteran Matt Forte (96 rushing, 59 receiving) amassed 155 yards from scrimmage in his debut, but former Chicago Bears teammate Brandon Marshall was limited to just three catches and committed a costly drop in the fourth quarter. The 32-year-old Marshall downplayed any residual issues with an ailing hip and looks to get back on track versus Buffalo, against which he has reeled in a touchdown pass in each of his last four meetings. Leonard Williams recorded 2 1/2 sacks in the opener, fellow defensive tackle Steve McLendon added two and defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson had 1 1/2 for the Jets, who will see Sheldon Richardson make his 2016 debut after serving a one-game suspension for violating the personal-conduct policy.

ABOUT THE BILLS (0-1, 0-1 ATS, 0-1 O/U): Ryan dismissed the possibility of shutting down Watkins after the New York Daily News reported that the move could be done as a precaution following the wideout's admission that his surgically repaired foot was sore. Watkins had four catches for a team-high 43 yards against the Ravens, but Tyrod Taylor only connected on 15 of 22 tosses for 111 yards in the game. LeSean McCoy, who recorded his 60th career touchdown in the opener, gashed the Jets for 112 yards rushing and five catches for 47 yards receiving in Buffalo's 22-17 win on Nov. 12.

TRENDS:

* Jets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games in Buffalo.
* Bills finished last season 4-0 ATS in their final four home games.
* Under is 5-1 in the Bills' last six Thursday games.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five games in Buffalo.

CONSENSUS: The public is backing the shot road fave in this spot, with 60 percent of wagers backing the Jets. As for the total, 56 percent of wagers are on the Under.

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Updated NFL Best Bets:

Monday Night Results: ATS 0 - 2, O/U 2 - 0

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks.......7 - 7 - 1...........50.00%..........- 0.70

O/U Picks.......10 - 5 - 0...........66.00%.........+4.00

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THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 15

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

NYJ at BUF 08:25 PM

BUF -1.0

U 40.5

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Forte scores 3 TDs, Jets outlast Bills
September 15, 2016

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. (AP) Matt Forte scored three touchdown runs and Ryan Fitzpatrick finally solved Rex Ryan's defense, leading the New York Jets to a 37-31 victory over the Buffalo Bills on Thursday night.

Forte's 3-yard run put New York ahead 27-24 with 2:12 left in the third quarter. He sealed the win by patiently waiting for a seam to open before scampering into the end zone from 12 yards to put New York up 37-24 with 4:02 left in the fourth quarter.

Forte finished with 100 yards rushing, and the offseason free-agent addition became the 13th New York player to score three rushing touchdowns in a game.

The Jets (1-1) bounced back from a season-opening loss to Cincinnati and snapped a five-game skid against their AFC East rivals.

Fitzpatrick finished 24 of 34 for 374 yards and a 5-yard touchdown pass to Eric Decker.

In beating one of his former teams, Fitzpatrick also overcame the stinging memories of last year's season finale, a 22-17 loss at Buffalo that eliminated the Jets from playoff contention. Fitzpatrick closed the loss by throwing interceptions on each of the Jets final three possessions.

''I think it means a little bit more than a regular game because this was my life for four years being here,'' Fitzpatrick said about spending 2009-12 with the Bills. ''But I'm more excited about our team and the way we responded in the second half.''

The Bills (0-2) are suddenly reeling in Ryan's second season as coach , and two years after he has fired by the Jets.

''Obviously, we never expected this,'' Ryan said. ''The Jets were a much better team than we were today, especially their offense against our defense looked like a mismatch today. You look for a difference in the game and that was the difference in the game.''

The Bills' offense sputtered in a 13-7 loss at Baltimore on Sunday, and now it was their defense that showed cracks against the Jets.

New York finished with 493 yards offense, 28 first downs and had seven drives cross midfield.

Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor rebounded five days after he was limited to 111 yards passing against the Ravens.

He went 18 of 30 for 298 yards and three touchdowns and an interception. Marquise Goodwin scored on an 84-yarder catch, Greg Salas scored on a 71-yard catch and running back Mike Gillislee made it close, by catching an 18-yard touchdown pass with 1:17 remaining.

The Jets scored on each of their first four possessions to build a 20-7 lead.

The Bills responded by scoring on three straight possessions spanning halftime to go up 24-20. Safety Nickell Robey-Coleman capped the run by returning Jalin Marshall's fumble 36 yards for a touchdown.

GOING DEEP

Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis got off to another tough start. After having difficulty covering Bengals receiver A.J. Green on Sunday, Revis was burned by Goodwin on his 84-yard touchdown catch. Goodwin burst past Revis up the right sideline at midfield and had two steps on him when he caught Tyrod Taylor's pass in stride at the Jets 35 and ran it in.

It was Buffalo's longest touchdown pass at home in team history, and longest since Fitzpatrick hit Terrell Owens for a 98-yard touchdown strike at Tennessee on Nov. 15, 2009.

Adding in Salas' 71-yard TD catch and Taylor became Buffalo's fifth quarterback to throw two 70-plus yard touchdown passes in the same game, and first since J.P. Losman did it in 2006.

FOURTH DOWN

Forte's final touchdown came after the Jets defense stopped the Bills twice for no gain at midfield, including run up the middle by LeSean McCoy on fourth-and-1. The Bills converted 3 of 10 third-down chances and were 1-for-2 on fourth down.

QUICK HEALER

Jets receiver Brandon Marshall proved to be a quick healer. It appeared as if he sustained a serious injury when his left knee twisted beneath him while cornerback Stephon Gilmore brought him down by the facemask in the second quarter. Marshall immediately grabbed his knee and lay on the field for a few minutes before getting up on his own.

Marshall returned for the next series and made a 21-yard catch after having his knee examined. The catch helped set up Decker's 5-yard touchdown catch that put the Jets up 20-7.

INJURIES

Jets: Coach Todd Bowles said Marshall had a slight sprain. WR Quincy Enunwa continued playing despite sore ribs. LB Erin Henderson did not return because of a foot injury. OG James Carpenter injured a calf.

Bills: Goodwin left the game late and was being for a potential concussion.

THEY SAID IT:

Fitzpatrick on Marshall returning to field: ''I thought he was down for the count, for sure.''

Bills LB Jerry Hughes: ''We just didn't play good football today. Just bad ball all around. ... We just didn't show up today.''

RETIRING NO. 78

The Bills honored NFL career sacks leader and Hall of Famer Bruce Smith by retiring his No. 78 during a halftime ceremony.

''I don't know if I'm worthy or lucky enough for all this,'' Smith told reporters before the game. He joins Hall of Fame quarterback Jim Kelly, whose No. 12, is the only number the Bills have retired.

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Updated NFL Best Bets:

Thursday Night Results: ATS 0 - 1, O/U 0 - 1

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks.......7 - 8 - 1.............46.66%..........- 1.80

O/U Picks.......10 - 6 - 0...........62.50%..........+ 2.90

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Vegas Money Moves - Week 2
September 16, 2016

Week 1 action gave bettors a lot to think about and the consensus from most heading into Week 2 is that they hate the Rams and Browns. CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal kindly offered some of his time Friday afternoon to review games they have the biggest exposure on so far.

So let's take a look at what's been happening during the week.

CG Tech books opened Detroit as 5.5-point home favorites over Tennessee on Sunday night and were bet to -6 on Thursday. The only -5.5 remaining in the city is at Station Casinos. CG books opened the Lions -5 in April when they posted numbers on every game for the first 16 weeks. The total rose from an opener of 46.5 to 47 on Wednesday.

The Chiefs ended the Texans 2015 season with a 30-0 playoff win at NRG Stadium and they also beat them there, 27-20, in Week 1. Kansas City was favored in both games. But when Houston signed Brock Osweiler, it immediately upgraded the Chiefs rating and CG books early line in April had this Week 2 match-up as a pick 'em. On Sunday night they opened Houston as a 1.5-point home favorite.

"Respected money came in on the Texans laying -1.5, -2 and -2.5 and were watching that one carefully," said Simbal, who is still sitting at -2.5 not wanting to move to -3. The total has stayed put at 43.5 the entire week. The come into this game having covered eight of their last 10 regular season games and the two-team, side-to-total parlay tied to the UNDER has cashed six times during the run.

Prior to the Patriots big win at Arizona with Jimmy Garappolo looking very comfortable, the Patriots were opened as 4-point home favorites against Miami. When the number was re-posted on Monday, CG books hung -6.5. That's quite an endorsement for Garoppolo. When the early lines were posted in April with Tom Brady in the mix, the Patriots were -9. The total has dropped from 42.5 to 42. The home team has covered the last eight meetings and Miami has gone 1-8 ATS in its last nine against AFC East opponents. The lone cover was a critical Week 17 game for the Pats at Miami where the Dolphins won 20-10 as 10-point underdogs.

Baltimore opened Sunday night as 4-point favorites at Cleveland and as news starting filtering in about how severe Robert Griffin's injury was, the line quickly went to -5. With Griffin confirmed out and Josh McCown in, it went to -5.5 on Monday all the way up to -7 until settling back at -6.5 where it hasn't moved since. Baltimore was originally -3 in April. The total dropped from 43.5 to 42.5 on Wednesday. Cleveland has covered only two of its past 11 games, but Baltimore has gone 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 against losing teams.

The best bet of the week is that tempers will flare at Pittsburgh when the Bengals visit Sunday. They met three times last season with the Steelers winning and covering the last two -- both at Cincinnati, but the Bengals won the November match-up 16-10 at Pittsburgh. None of those spreads were higher than -2. The Steelers opened as 3.5-point home favorites on Sunday and there have been a few Bengals backers moving the number to +3.5 (-120). "We took a limit bet on the Bengals at +3.5 and we also took one on OVER 48," said Simbal, who is now at 49. "We don't want to go to -3, but no one is taking the -3.5 (EV)." Cincinnati is on a run of covering its last nine road games.

With Tony Romo expected to play, Dallas at Washington was a pick 'em game. With Dak Prescott running the Cowboys show, Washington opened -3 (-120) and some Dallas money dropped it to -3 (-105). "This is the Square versus Sharp game of the week," said Simbal. We took a limit wager on Washington -3, but have taken tons of public action on the Cowboys. It's one of our biggest parlay risks of the week so far." The total opened at 46.5 and got as low as 45.5, but was moved up to 46 on Thursday. The road team has covered the last five meetings.

The four-team parlay that would hurt Simbal's nine sports books across the city the most is Dallas, New England, Baltimore and Seattle. "They're all over any team playing the Browns and Rams," he said.

The Giants opened as 6-point home favorites against the Saints and the number has steadily dropped down the ladder to -4.5 with Saints action -- it doesn't take much action to slide through dead numbers of 5 and 5.5. "Our biggest bets this week have come on the Saints at +6, +5.5, and +5," Simbal said. The Giants -4.5 is the same number CG opened with in April. The total has gone from 51.5 to 52.5. Six Las Vegas sports books have the total at a high of 53.5. The last four meetings have gone OVER, as in waaaay OVER with the winning team almost taking care of the number themselves. The Saints won 52-49 at home last season.

Carolina was installed as a 14-point home favorite against San Francisco on Sunday night. After Chip Kelly's 49ers beat the Rams 28-0 on Monday night, CG books respected the Niners efforts and re-opened the game -13.5. The total moved from 44.5 to 45 on Tuesday.

The opening number in April had Arizona as 9-point home favorites against Tampa Bay. Before Sunday's home loss against the Patriots, Arizona was posted at -7.5. Even before the game started, bettors drove Arizona down to -6.5. When re-posting Monday morning they started at -6.5 and Arizona money has driven it back up to -7. The total moved from 50 to 50.5 on Friday.

With the uncertainty of Russell Wilson's status (ankle), most sports books didn't post a number on Seattle at Los Angeles, but CG stuck their necks out there. "We actually posted Seattle -3 before the Monday night game -- boy were we off on that one," chuckled Simbal. After the Rams MNF burial, CG posted Seattle -3.5 Tuesday and quickly raised it all the way to -6. On Friday, they went to -6.5. The total has dropped from 39.5 to 38.5. The Rams have covered six of the last eight in the series, including winning outright in both games last season.

Denver opened as 4.5-point home favorites over Indianapolis Sunday night and within 30 minutes it was up to -5.5. Monday afternoon CG moved to -6 and Thursday they went to -6.5. The total has been bet up from 45 to 46.5. The Colts have covered the past eight meetings, the last four engineered by Andrew Luck.

Oakland opened as a 6-point home favorite over Atlanta and it took only 20 minutes before Falcons money said hello and dropped the number to -5.5. On Monday bettors took some at +5.5 and on Thursday they took some +5 dropping it down to 4.5 where it sits now. The total has been bet up from 48 to 49.

San Diego opened as a 2.5-point favorite over Jacksonville and within 10 minutes, it was bet up to -3 and soon after CG attached money to the side and they currently sit -3 (-120) The total has dropped from 48 down to 47.5.

The Packers opened at pick 'em in April for this road contest at Minnesota's new stadium when Teddy Bridgewater was expected to play. When they re-opened the game on Sunday night the Packers were -2.5 and Tuesday it ran up the money ladder a couple times until hitting -3 (EV) where Vikings buy-back came and they're back at -2.5-flat. Simbal said this has been a very evenly bet game so far. The total opened at 44.5 and has been bet down to 43. Sam Bradford is expected to make his Vikings debut.

The Bears opened as a 2.5-point favorite over the Eagles in April and despite recent changes with Philly's QB situation, the Bears were opened Sunday night at basically the same number at -2.5 (-120). Within 20 minutes Bears money pushed it -3-flat and on Wednesday it moved to -3 (-120). The total of 42.5 hasn't moved all week through Friday.

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Total Talk - Week 2
September 16, 2016

Sixteen of the first 256 games are in the books and bettors watched Week 1 produce a stalemate (8-8) but your record could differ depending when and where you shopped. If you bet totals on a regular basis in all sports, then you’re well aware of the close calls that occur.

For example, the ‘over’ could’ve easily went 10-6 in Week 1 if kickers for Carolina and Arizona were able to connect late. Bettors on the ‘under’ in the Vikings-Titans (40) could also have a gripe, especially with a 10-0 score at halftime but defensive touchdowns always hurt the high side and this game had two of them.

Quick Observations

The Rams were shutout on Monday Night and that’s very rare, considering we’ve only saw two bagels posted all of last season and just 29 in the last decade. I did a quick data mine for the last five seasons and teams are just 7-14 after getting shutout and the offense has averaged 16.6 points per game during this span.

We had seven teams score 30 or more points last week and a lot of people tend to overreact to those numbers. Solid efforts by Oakland and Tampa Bay last week, but I don’t expect those clubs to maintain consistent numbers.

The “Thursday Night Football” total system took a step back last season but if you believe it will rebound then take a look at the ‘over’ in Denver-Indianapolis this Sunday. The Colts defense is very banged up and that should help the Broncos and their young quarterback. Meanwhile, Indy has averaged 28.5 in four games versus Denver with Andrew Luck under center.

Nifty Fifty

The two highest closing totals in Week 1 also saw the most points posted on the scoreboard.

Oakland 35 at New Orleans 34 (Over – 50 ½)
Detroit 39 at Indianapolis 35 (Over 51 ½)

The Saints and Colts tend to have higher totals due to their offensive abilities, defensive weakness and venues but per reports, Indy had its roof opened this past Sunday.

In Week 2, we have two more games with totals listed at 50 or higher as of Friday evening.

New Orleans at N.Y. Giants: This total opened 52 and was quickly bumped up to 53 ½. It’s hard to argue to the low side knowing the recent history between this pair. In the last four encounters between the pair, the winning team has scored 48, 49, 52 and 52 points. Last year, the Saints nipped the Giants 52-49 at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome as Drew Brees (505 yards, 7 TDs) went off for New Orleans. For those looking for an ‘under’ lean, it should be noted that the Giants defense had a solid effort in Week 1 and you shouldn’t ignore the fact that the Saints only averaged 18.6 PPG on the road last season.

Tampa Bay at Arizona: I feel this number is inflated but the oddsmakers are buying Tampa Bay early and it’s no secret that Arizona has the ability to score at home. However, I’m hesitant to go high with the Buccaneers just yet. In the previous five seasons, T-Bay has had three totals listed at 50 or above and the ‘under’ cashed in all of them. This is also a back-to-back road game for the Bucs and last year they averaged 14.6 PPG in the second game, compared to 33.7 PPG in the first game. Last week they put up 31 on Atlanta. Coincidence? Since I’m sticking with tendencies, here’s one on Arizona from 2015. The Cardinals allowed 17, 18, 20 points off losses last season.

Divisional Matchups

The Bills and Jets kicked off Week 2 with a good old fashioned shootout as New York captured a 37-31 road victory. The ‘over’ (40 ½) cashed midway through the third quarter and was never in doubt. We have six more divisional contests remaining.

Miami at New England: This is a tough matchup to handicap due to the QB factor and because it’s hard to gauge the recent meetings. The pair usually play one meaningful game early and one late in the season where New England has rested starters because of its playoff standing. Coincidentally, the rematch this season is in Week 17 from Miami. For what it’s worth, the ‘under’ is on a 6-2 run here and Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill has been beaten up at Foxboro while the club has scored a total of 37 points (9.3 PPG) in four blowout losses.

Baltimore at Cleveland: Three of the last four in this series have gone ‘over’ and that includes a pair of shootouts (33-27, 33-30) last season. Neither team scored in Week 1 but Josh McCown is an upgrade at QB for the Browns and he torched Baltimore in 1 ½ games for 669 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions while suffering a broken collarbone in the home loss.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: The ‘under’ is on a 3-1 run in this series and while many believe another divisional slugfest is expected, the oddsmakers have sent out a high opener (48 ½) based on Pittsburgh’s high-scoring ability. Since QB Andy Dalton has taken over in Cincinnati, the offense has been held to 14.6 PPG in five games from Heinz Field.

Dallas at Washington: The ‘under’ has gone 6-4 the last 10 encounters and outside of 2013, the pair have seen the total results split each season. Washington’s defense was diced up on Monday and while many believe Dallas has the similar weapons, let’s not insult Ben Roethlisberger and compare Dak Prescott to him. Make a note that the Cowboys saw the ‘under’ go 7-1 on the road last season with Tony Romo missing two of those games.

Seattle at Los Angeles: Seven of the last 10 in this series have seen the ‘under’ connect and the early line (38 ½) is leaning that way again. Even with a healthy Russell Wilson, Seattle’s offensive line is expected to have trouble with the defensive front of the Rams. I don’t expect Los Angeles to get shut out again, but bouncing back in a strong way is not likely (see above).

Green Bay at Minnesota: (See Below)

Under the Lights

Including the result from this past Thursday, the ‘over’ has gone 3-2 in the first five primetime games this season.

Green Bay at Minnesota: The ‘under’ is on a 3-0 run this series and the visitor has come out on top during this span as well. Both clubs saw the ‘over’ connect in their Week 1 wins but they were tight and the Vikings defense helped their cause with two scores. The total has moved from 44 ½ to 43 ½ at most books as of Friday. The Packers will be playing their second straight road game and they were exposed in the back-to-back spots last season. Green Bay went 0-3 while allowing 37, 38 and 26. Do you believe Sam Bradford, who is expected to get the nod at QB, can keep that trend rolling for Minnesota on SNF?

Philadelphia at Chicago: Very tough total to handicap on Monday because we really don’t know what we’re getting in this matchup. Chicago lost to a strong Texans team on the road while Philadelphia dominated the inexperienced Browns at home in Week 1. The best play could be a pass until you get a better pulse on both clubs but for what it’s worth, the ‘over’ has gone 3-0 in the last three meetings between the pair as they combined for 57, 54 and 65 points.

Fearless Predictions

Decent start to the season (+200) and hoping we can carry the momentum into Week 2. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Green Bay-Minnesota 43 ½

Best Under: Miami-New England 42

Best Team Total: Over 29 Carolina

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Under 59 ½ Tampa Bay-Arizona
Under 62 ½ New Orleans-N.Y. Giants
Under 56 ½ Jacksonville-San Diego

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Pick Six - Week 2
September 16, 2016

Week 1 Record: 5-1 SU, 2-4 ATS
Overall Record: 5-1 SU, 2-4 ATS

Review: The Bengals and Packers failed to cover as road favorites in victories, while the Vikings and Raiders grabbed away wins. Seattle didn’t cash in its comeback win over Miami, while the Cowboys fell short against the Giants in a one-point defeat.

Chiefs at Texans (-2 ½, 43 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Kansas City
Record: 1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS, 1-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 18/1

The Chiefs pulled off the biggest rally in franchise history last Sunday by erasing a 21-point deficit in a 33-27 overtime triumph over the Chargers. Although Kansas City didn’t cover as 6 ½-point favorites, the Chiefs extended their regular season winning streak to 11. The Chiefs swept both matchups from the Texans last season at NRG Stadium, including a 30-0 shutout in the Wild Card round as three-point favorites. However, Kansas City posted a 1-4 SU/ATS record as a road underdog in 2015, while three of those games eclipsed the OVER.

Houston
Record: 1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, 1-0 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 30/1

The Texans won Brock Osweiler’s debut at quarterback in a 23-14 triumph over the Bears in Week 1 to improve to 4-1 SU/ATS against NFC opponents at home since 2014. Osweiler threw for 231 yards and a two touchdowns, while newly signed running back Lamar Miller rushed for 106 yards in the victory. Since starting last season at 2-5, Houston owns an 8-2 SU/ATS mark in its past 10 regular season contests, including a 5-1 SU/ATS ledger at home. Houston hopes to avoid a letdown (and a third straight loss to Kansas City) before traveling to New England next Thursday night to kick off Week 3.

Best Bet: Houston -2 ½

Bengals at Steelers (-3 ½, 48 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Cincinnati
Record: 1-0 SU, 0-0-1 ATS, 1-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

The Bengals went back and forth with the Jets last week, but Cincinnati held off New York, 23-22 to win its third straight opener on the road. Cincinnati’s offense gained nearly 400 yards, as Andy Dalton torched the Jets’ defense for 366 yards, including a 54-yard touchdown strike to A.J. Green. The Bengals lost two of three meetings with the Steelers last season, including an 18-16 defeat in the Wild Card with Dalton sidelined. Since the start of 2015, Cincinnati has covered eight of its last nine road contests.

Pittsburgh
Record: 1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, 1-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 15/2

The Steelers dominated the Redskins following a slow start last Monday in a 38-16 rout as 2 ½-point road favorites. Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown connected on a pair of touchdowns, while DeAngelo Williams rushed for 143 yards and two scores as Pittsburgh improved to 2-4 in its past six season openers. Pittsburgh is a coin-toss proposition as a home favorite the last two seasons by amassing a 7-7 ATS mark, but the Steelers have won seven of their last nine games at Heinz Field against AFC North foes.

Best Bet: Cincinnati +3 ½

Cowboys at Redskins (-2 ½, 45 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Dallas
Record: 0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 1-0 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 35/1

The professional debut of Dak Prescott showed some hope for the Cowboys, but they ultimately lost to the rival Giants, 20-19 in Week 1. Prescott, who played in place of the injured Tony Romo, completed 25-of-45 passes for 227 yards, but Dallas was limited to one touchdown and four field goals. The good news for Dallas is it didn’t turn the ball over and had possession for nearly 37 minutes. The bad news is the Cowboys dropped to 1-7-1 ATS in the past nine home contests since the start of 2015. Dallas heads to Washington owning a 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS mark in the last five trips to FedEx Field, but all three of those ATS losses came in the favorite role.

Washington
Record: 0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 1-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 65/1

One of the worst performances turned in from the opening week belonged to the defending NFC East champion Redskins, who were pulverized by Pittsburgh, 38-16. Washington’s five-game winning streak as an underdog came to an end in that defeat as Jay Gruden enters Week 2 owning a 1-6 ATS mark as a home favorite in his two seasons as head coach. Last season, the Redskins put together a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS record off a double-digit loss with all four of those victories coming at home.

Best Bet: Dallas +2 ½

Buccaneers at Cardinals (-6 ½, 50) – 4:05 PM EST

Tampa Bay
Record: 1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, 1-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

One of the most impressive efforts turned in last Sunday came from the Buccaneers, who captured their first opening day win since 2012 in a 31-24 triumph at Atlanta as 2 ½-point underdogs. Jameis Winston tossed four touchdown passes for Tampa Bay, as the Bucs broke the 30-point mark for the fourth time since the start of 2015. In three opportunities last season playing the second of a back-to-back road set, the Bucs compiled a 1-2 SU/ATS mark, which included double-digit losses at Houston and Indianapolis.

Arizona
Record: 0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 1-0 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 15/1

Nine months ago, the Cardinals were one win away from making their second Super Bowl in franchise history. However, Arizona went through a rough preseason at 1-3, while dropping its season opener as nearly double-digit favorites against short-handed New England, 23-21. The Cardinals allowed 363 yards to the Patriots, while New England held the ball for 34 minutes. Dating back to the start of 2015, the Cardinals own a 3-7 ATS record in the role of a home favorite, as Arizona is hosting Tampa Bay for the first time since a 38-35 defeat to the Bucs in 2010.

Best Bet: Arizona -6 ½

Colts at Broncos (-6, 46) – 4:25 PM EST

Indianapolis
Record: 0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 1-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

The Colts were able to erase a 21-3 deficit against the Lions in Week 1 to take a late 35-34 lead. Detroit kicked a field goal in the final minute then picked up two points on a safety on the last play of the game for a 39-35 triumph. Andrew Luck can’t be blamed for the Colts’ loss, as the former top pick threw for 385 yards and four touchdowns in his first start since last November against Denver. Luck has performed well against the Broncos in his career, going 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS, including that 27-24 win as a three-point home underdog.

Denver
Record: 1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, 1-0 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 13/1

The defending Super Bowl champions rallied to stun the Panthers, 21-20 in the season opener, overcoming a 17-7 hole as three-point home underdogs. Trevor Siemian won in his NFL debut in spite of being intercepted twice and throwing for 178 yards, while C.J. Anderson found the end zone twice for Denver. The Broncos limped to a 1-5-1 ATS mark as a home favorite last season, while six of their home victories came by six points or less. Denver has done an excellent job with UNDERS in the Mile High City since the start of 2015 by finishing UNDER the total in eight of the past 11 games at Sports Authority Field.

Best Bet: Indianapolis +6

Falcons at Raiders (-4 ½, 49 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

Atlanta
Record: 0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 1-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 100/1

The Falcons travel to the Black Hole for the first time since shutting out the Raiders, 28-0 in 2008. Atlanta is in bounce-back mode following a 31-24 home setback to Tampa Bay last Sunday as the Falcons fell to 1-6 ATS as a home favorite under Dan Quinn. However, the Falcons have performed better in Quinn’s short tenure in the role of an underdog by covering in five of seven opportunities. Atlanta finished last season cashing the UNDER in 10 straight games, but easily hit the OVER in Week 1 against Tampa Bay.

Oakland
Record: 1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, 1-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 30/1

The most dramatic finish in Week 1 happened at the Superdome as the Raiders rallied from a double-digit fourth quarter deficit to stun the Saints, 35-34. Oakland scored a touchdown in the final minute then rolled the dice and converted the two-point conversion on a Derek Carr to Michael Crabtree connection. The Raiders return to the Coliseum where they struggled last season by posting a 2-6 ATS mark, while Oakland failed to cover in all four favorite opportunities in 2015. Oakland needs to sure up its defense at home after giving up at least 30 points in five home games last season.

Best Bet: Atlanta +4 ½

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Week 2 NFL

Titans (0-1) @ Lions (1-0)– Detroit is 8-2-2 as home favorite under Caldwell. Tennessee led Vikings 10-0 at half LW, but offense gave up two TDs in second half of demoralizing loss. Only two teams lost LY when they didn’t allow a TD on offense. Detroit blew 21-3 lead, rallied late for win in Indy; they had five TD drives of 71+ yards. Titans won last four series games, three by 5 or less points; they won last three visits to Motor City. Titans are 6-3 (7-2 vs spread) in last nine road openers; they’re 9-17 as road dogs the last four years. Lions won four of last five home openers; they’re 8-1-1 as a favorite in HOs, but just 6-10-1 in last 17 games vs AFC teams. Under is 15-4 in Titans’ last 19 road openers, 1-5 in Detroit’s last six home openers. Titans’ DC LeBeau played his whole 14-year career for the Lions.

Chiefs (1-0) @ Texans (1-0)– KC rallied back from down 24-3 with 21:00 left for OT win in its opener; Chiefs are 7-6 as road underdogs last three years, 11-6 in last 17 games with spread of 3 or less points. Houston is 8-3 as home favorites under O’Brien; they’re 14-11-1 in last 26 games with spread of 3 or less. Texans shut Chicago out in second half LW; they were 12-20 on 3rd down, ran 18 more plays, had 8-yard edge in field position. Road team won four of seven series games; KC is 3-2 here, with 27-20 win in LY’s opener. Chiefs lost six of last nine road openers but are 10-5 vs spread in last 15 AOs (under 7-4 in last 11). Texans’ DC Crennel was once HC of Chiefs (2012).

Dolphins (0-1) @ Patriots (1-0)– Interim QB Garoppolo passed his first test with flying colors in Arizona, he passed for 257 yards, Pats converted 10-16 on 3rd down and won 23-21- they’re 12-6-3 as home favorite last three years. Miami didn’t allow TD until last minute 12-10 loss at Seattle; last four years, Dolphins are 2-8 as divisional road dogs. Miami gained 222 yards LW, 2nd-least in NFL, gaining 4.8 yds/pass attempt- they lost despite 10-yard edge in field position. Home side won last seven series games; Miami lost seven in a row in Foxboro, last four by 10+ points (three of four by 28+). Patriots are 13-1 in last 14 home openers (2-5-1 vs spread in last eight); their last four HOs stayed under the total.

Ravens (1-0) @ Browns (0-1)– 37-year old McCown gets start at QB for Browns after RGII broke his shoulder; he is 2-17 as a starter last two years (Bucs/Browns). Cleveland may be 1-17 in its season openers, but they’re 8-9 in Week 2 games, 5-2 at home. Baltimore is 14-2 in last 16 series games, going 7-1 in last eight visits to their old home, but Ravens lost four of last five road openers (win was here). Browns are 1-5 vs spread in AFC North games last two years; they were outgained 403-288 LW- they lost field position by 17 yards. Ravens held Buffalo to 160 yards in 13-7 win LW; Bills averaged only 4.0 yards/pass attempt. Over is 6-2-1 in Ravens’ last nine AOs, 5-8 in Cleveland’s last 13 HOs.

Bengals (1-0) @ Steelers (1-0)– Pitt knocked Cincy out of playoffs LY with 18-16 win in Cincy. Bengals drove 55 yards in nine plays to kick GW FG with 0:54 left in its opener in Jersey Swamp. Cincy is 13-4-3 as road underdog last five years; over last seven years, they’re 30-15-2 as single-digit dog. Steelers won 12 of last 13 home openers; they are 7-3 vs spread as favorite in HOs. Last three years, Pitt is 11-6 as home favrotie- they won four of last five games vs Bengals; teams split last four here. Steelers were 9-14 on 3rd down in Monday night win- they gained 147 yards on ground, 288 thru air in a well-balanced attack with Big Ben calling plays. Four of last five series totals were 44+. Five of their last seven home openers stayed under total.

Cowboys (0-1) @ Redskins (0-1)– First road start for rookie QB Prescott (25-45/227 vs Giants last week). Dallas had one TD, two FGs in three visits to red zone; they tried FGs on four of six drives that started 75+ yards from end zone- their only TD drive was 35 yards. Teams split last eight series games; Dallas won last three in Maryland, winning 24-23/44-17/19-16. Skins had only 12 carries for 55 yards in home loss vs Steelers Monday; former Redskin RB Morris had 35 rushing yards in backup role for Dallas. Divisional underdogs were 4-0 vs spread last week. Cowboys are 18-8 vs spread in last 26 road openers, winning six of last nine SU. Washington was in Steeler territory seven times Monday, scored only one TD.

Saints (0-1) @ Giants (1-0)– Brees had 511 passing yards in 52-49 win over Giants LY; home side won nine of last ten series games, Saints losing five of last six visits here, with its one win in ’06. Saints gave up TD/2-point conversion in last minute LW, losing at home to Raiders in game New Orleans led 24-10 in 3rd quarter. Giants won first opener in six years LW, but Cowboys were 10-17 on 3rd down with rookie QB. Big Blue lost last four home openers, allowing 28.8 ppg; they’re9-7 as home favorite last three years. Saints are 7-3-1 in last 11 games as an underdog, 1-7 vs spread in last eight road openers (0-6 in last six). Seven of Saints’ last eight AOs went over total; under is 10-6 in Giants’ last 16 HOs.

49ers (1-0) @ Panthers (0-1)– Long travel on short week for 49ers, who opened Monday night at home with a shutout win; they’re 6-3 in last nine road openers, 3-8 in last 11 series games, with last meeting in ’13 playoffs. Under is 4-2-1 in last seven AOs. Carolina had extra days to prep after Thursday nite loss in Denver; they’re 2-4-1 as a favorite in home openers (under 14-6-1 in lsst 21). Panthers are 19-11-1 vs spread under Rivera coming off a loss; 49ers are 3-8 coming off a win the last two years; they pulled MNF upset at home LY, then went to Pittsburgh and lost 43-18 six days later- similar travel situation here. Carolina is 16-8-2 as a home favorite under Rivera; 49ers are 3-8 as road underdogs the last two seasons.

Bucs (1-0) @ Cardinals (1-0)– Tampa Bay averaged 8.5 yds/pass attempt LW; three of their four TDs came on plays of 23+ yards. Bucs are 10-7 as road underdogs last 2+ years- they are 5-7 vs spread off a win. Arizona lost at home to Patriots’ backup QB LW, got ripped by GM next day; Arizona was +2 in turnovers but allowed Pats to convert 10-16 on 3rd down. Cardinals are 8-3 coming off a loss under Arians, 3-6 in last nine games as a home favorite. Teams split last six series games; Tampa Bay is 3-2 in five visits here, with last one in ’10. Eight of last nine series totals were 37 or less. Non-divisional favorites were 5-7 vs spread in Week 1, 3-4 at home. Over is 19-6 in Cardinals’ last 25 home games.

Seahawks (1-0) @ Rams (0-1)– LA coaches already on hot seat after ugly Monday loss to rival 49ers. Keenum will start again at QB; doesn’t matter if Bob Waterfield plays, if they don’t block up front for him. First home game in Coliseum for Rams since 1979, against team coached by former USC coach Carroll, who also knows Coliseum well. Rams are 3-1 in last four series games; Seahawks lost last two visits to St Louis 28-26/34-31- they are 1-8 in last nine road openers (1-10 vs spread in last 11). Rams won three of last four home openers (over 5-2-1 in last eight). Under is 21-7 in Seahawks’ last 28 road openers. Seahawks didn’t score TD LW until last 0:31; Wilson has sprained ankle which appeared bad near end of Miami game, but he still led game-winning drive.

Colts (0-1) @ Broncos (1-0)– Denver had three extra days to prep after they beat Carolina in opener, in Siemian’s first NFL start; Broncos are 1-4-1 as home favorites under Kubiak. Denver had three turnovers (-2), allowed 157 yards, still upset Panthers. Colts were down 21-3 in home opener LW, rallied to lead 35-34 with 0:37 left, but gave up GW FG at end. . Indy is 7-6 as road underdogs under Pagano; 13-6 vs spread coming off a loss- they won eight of last nine series games; average total in last four, 53.8. Colts are 3-2 in last five visits here, with last win in 2010. Indy lost five of last six road openers; they’re 3-10-1 as an underdog in AOs, with eight of last 11 staying under the total. Last 5+ years, Denver is 31-21-2 vs spread coming off a win.

Falcons (0-1) @ Raiders (1-0)– Raiders won opener despite giving up 419 passing yards to Brees; Oakland ran ball for 167 yards, averaged 8.4 yards/pass. Last 8 years, Oakland is 6-13 as home favorite; they’ve been favored in just 4 of last 24 home games. Falcons are 10-6 as underdogs last two years, 5-4 on road; they gave up three TD plays of 23+ yards vs Bucs LW, scored only 16 points in four visits to red zone. Atlanta won last three series games by combined 82-20; Raiders’ last series win was in 2000. Falcons lost three of four visits here, winning 24-0 in ’08- they lost seven of last nine road openers (3-9 vs spread in last 12, under 10-2). Oakland is 3-8 in last 11 home openers; six of last nine went over.

Jaguars (0-1) @ Chargers (0-1)– Bolts blew 24-3 lead with 21:00 to play LW; they ran ball for 155 yards but KC threw for 330 against them- tough loss to bounce back from. Jaguars had ball in Packer territory in last minute with chance to win game; they held Rodgers to 5.7 yds/pass, but an ball for only 48 yards themselves. San Diego won last five series games (four by 18+); they won 31-25 (+5) at Gator Bowl LY. Jaguars lost last three visits here by 13-25-19 points. Jags lost seven of last eight road openers (1-5 vs spread in last six); under is 8-4 in last 12. Bolts won five of last six home openers- they’re 7-4 vs spread as favorite in HOs (under 11-2 in last 13). San Diego is 13-11 vs spread off a loss under coach McCoy.

Packers (1-0) @ Vikings (1-0)– Minnesota’s new dome opens here; they’re 2-10-1 in last 13 vs Green Bay- road team is 4-1-1 in last six series games. Pack won by 13-3-17 points in last three visits to Twin Cities. Bradford got first team reps in practice Wednesday; he probably gets his first Viking start here (25-37-1 career W-L record). Minnesota is 10-3 SU in last 13 regular season games, 14-2 vs spread in last 16. Last four years, Packers are 6-13 vs spread on artificial turf- they were outgained by 48 yards in win at Jacksonville LW; they averaged just 5.7 yds/pass. Minnesota is 9-3 as home dog last four years. Green Bay is 7-5 in last 12 games as a road favorite. Vikings lost five of last eight home openers, going 1-7 vs spread- under is 7-4-1 in their last 12 HOs.

Eagles (1-0) @ Bears (0-1)– Rookie QB Wentz gets first road start on national TV; LW he threw for 270 yards with no turnovers in his pro debut. Eagles are 19-12 as road underdogs the last 8 years. Bears are 14-22-3 as home favorite last 8 years; they were held scoreless in 2nd half in Houston LW, after leading 14-10 at half. Chicago won four of last six series games, losing 54-11 at Philly in last meeting three years ago. Eagles won five of last seven visits here, with last one in 2010. Philly won six of last seven road openers- they’re 5-1 as a dog in AOs– over is 5-2-1 in their last eight AOs. Chicago lost last two home openers after winning eight of nine before that; four of their last five HOs went over.

Week 2 NFL pointspreads

Jets (W37-31) @ Bills (-1, 41)……………Titans @ Lions (-5.5, 47)
Chiefs @ Texans (-2, 43.5)………….Dolphins @ Patriots (-6.5, 41.5)
Ravens (-6.5, 43) @ Browns…………Bengals @ Steelers (-3.5, 47.5)
Cowboys @ Redskins (-3.5, 44.5)…………Saints @ Giants (-5, 52.5)
49ers @ Panthers (-14, 48.5)…………Bucs @ Cardinals (6.5, 50)
Seahawks (NL) @ Rams…………Colts @ Broncos (-6, 45)
Falcons @ Raiders (-5.5, 48.5)…………Jaguars @ Chargers (-3, 48)
Packers (-2.5), 44.5 @ Vikings………..Eagles @ Bears (-3, 43)

Week 1 NFL pointspreads

Carolina (-3, 40.5) @ Denver (W21-20)……………Chicago @ Houston (-6, 44) (W23-14)
Tampa Bay (W31-24)@ Atlanta (-3, 47.5)……..Green Bay (-5, 48) (W27-23) @ Jacksonville
Minnesota (-2.5, 40.5) (W25-16) @ Tennessee ………..Miami @ Seattle (-10, 44) (W12-10)
Cleveland @ Philadelphia (-4, 41) (29-10)……….NJ Giants (W20-19) @ Dallas (-1, 46)
Cincinnati (-2.5, 42) (W23-22) @ NJ Jets………..Detroit (W39-35) @ Indianapolis (-3.5, 51)
Oakland (W35-34) @ New Orleans (-1.5, 51)….New England (W23-21) @ Arizona (-6, 46.5)
San Diego @ Kansas City (W33-27 OT) (-7, 44)………….Pittsburgh (-3, 50) @ Washington
Buffalo @ Baltimore (-3, 44.5) (W13-7)……………….Los Angeles (-2.5, 43) @ San Francisco

2016 week-by-week results

Home Favorites Totals AFC-NFC
1) 7-9 5-11 7-9 5-3N
2) 0-1 0-1 1-0 x

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Gridiron Angles - Week 2
September 17, 2016


NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Packers are 12-0 ATS since Sep 29, 2003 off a game as a road favorite of more than three points where they did not cover.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Titans are 0-10 ATS since Dec 22, 2013 on the road after they allowed at least 24 points last game.

NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Bengals are 7-0 ats since Sep 30, 2012 coming off a road win where Andy Dalton threw for at least 250 yards.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Titans are 11-0-1 OU since Sep 22, 2002 coming off a loss where they allowed less than 80 rushing yards.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Browns are 0-10 OU since Dec 29, 2013 after a loss where they gained less than 300 total yards.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Rams are 11-0 ATS when hosting a team that has at least 2/3 of their first downs through the air season-to-date.

[StarDust Bum]

SuperContest Picks - Week 2
September 17, 2016

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,854 entries, which is an all-time record.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.


Week 2

1) Seattle -4.5 (541)
2) Green Bay -2.5 (507)
3) Jacksonville +3 (426)
4) Kansas City +3 (419)
5) Cincinnati +3.5 (401)


SUPERCONTEST WEEK 2 MATCHUPS & ODDS

Away Team Selections Home Team Selections

N.Y. Jets (-1) 141 Buffalo (+1) 94

Tennessee (+6) 395 Detroit (-6) 191

Kansas City (+3) 419 Houston (-3) 304

Miami (+6.5) 329 New England (-6.5) 242

Baltimore (-6.5) 208 Cleveland (+6.5) 350

Cincinnati (+3.5) 401 Pittsburgh (-3.5) 222

Dallas (+2.5) 207 Washington (-2.5) 329

New Orleans (+4.5) 224 N.Y. Giants (-4.5) 277

San Francisco (+13.5) 144 Carolina (-13.5) 397

Tampa Bay (+7) 332 Arizona (-7) 229

Seattle (-4.5) 541 Los Angeles (+4.5) 133

Indianapolis (+6) 303 Denver (-6) 277

Atlanta (+5) 258 Oakland (-5) 284

Jacksonville (+3) 426 San Diego (-3) 239

Green Bay (-2.5) 507 Minnesota (+2.5) 319

Philadelphia (+3.5) 252 Chicago (-3.5) 296

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SNF - Packers at Vikings
September 17, 2016

The Vikings have a new home and a new quarterback they get to show off Sunday night as the Packers visit as 2.5-point favorites. The $1.1 billion U.S. Bank Stadium makes its regular season debut and Sam Bradford is expected to also debut as the starting QB, which will be the 10th different Minnesota starter Packers coach Mike McCarthy has seen over his tenure. Green Bay has gone 15-5-1 straight-up in those meetings behind him.

Minnesota's last home win against the Packers was in 2012, a 37-34 win engineered by Christian Ponder. However, the last time the two teams met the Vikings won 20-13 in Week 17 last season at Green Bay.

The key for Minnesota winning will be getting Adrian Peterson going much better than last week and more to what he's done over his 17 meetings with Green Bay over his career where he's averaged 109 yards per game. They'll also need its stellar defense to slow Aaron Rodgers and create turnovers, which is much easier said than done.

Even though Vikings coach Mike Zimmer hasn't named a starter for a supposed competitive advantage of forcing the Packers to game plan for both Bradford and Shaun Hill, Bradford took most of the snaps with the first string during practices this week. The Vikings offensive game plan is simple and its success basically stems from the quarterback being conservative and not making turnovers. Hill wasn't all that great last week, but he didn't turn the ball over.

Minnesota has covered the spread in three of the past five meetings with Green Bay with the last three staying UNDER the total. Since Week 2 of last season, the Vikings have gone an amazing 15-2 ATS.

LINE MOVEMENT

CG Technology sports books opened the number at pick 'em in April when they released spreads on all games. That was when Teddy Bridgewater was expected to play. When they re-opened the game on Sunday night the Packers were -2.5 and Tuesday it ran up the money ladder a couple times until hitting -3 (EV) where Vikings buy-back came and they're back at -2.5-flat. The total opened at 44.5 and has been bet down to 43.

"We've had really good two-way action on the Packers-Vikings, even with the uncertainty of the Vikings quarterback," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "The only area we're extended on is with a couple limit plays on the UNDER."

William Hill's 105 sports books across Nevada reported that while they had 89 percent of the tickets written on the public Packers, 55 percent of the actual cash on the game was on Minnesota.

LAST WEEK

The sports books got middled last week with the Packers 27-23 win at Jacksonville. Sharp money took the Jaguars at +5, +4.5 and +4, which forced the number to -3.5 on game day and the majority of the public parlays played laid -3.5. The result was also an all-way 4-0 teaser win with both sides and both totals covering. The books took a bath on the game. Jacksonville actually won the yardage battle over Green Bay, 348-to-294.

The Vikings offense sputtered at Tennessee last week, and were down 10-0 at the half, but just like last season the defense and special teams brought them back to win 25-16 as 2.5-point favorites. Minnesota's defense scored two second-half TD's and won the turnover battle, 3-0. The offense managed to put up 301 yards of offense with Adrian Peterson gaining only 31 yards on 19 carries. The books got middled on the total as bettors drove the number down from 43 to 39.5 by kickoff.

WHERE IS THE NUMBER GOING?

The Sunday night isolated games are tricky for the sports books because they have to react a little differently with all the risk from 14 earlier games calculating up into one giant figure. They know exactly how much they're going to lose with that game that has several eight-team parlays ready to cash. The books want to book the game straight-up with line movement justified only by straight-bet action, but if some of the public games hit early in the day the risk for the popular side at a $500,000 loss makes it hard to follow basic booking policy. A bookmaker's job is to limit risk and protect the house at all times. If they don't react with some kind of maneuvering to get action on the other side, either by the spread or money-line, they're not booking, they're gambling.

With the Packers being the popular public side, if you like the Vikings, your best bet is to wait for +3 to show up on game day as some of those early results are posted and the Packers risk gets larger. Some books don't want to move to +3 and will offer extreme value on the money-line instead, so you should be able to wait for +130 or higher on that end if liking them to win straight up. If liking the Packers, bet it now laying -2.5 or with the low money-line at -130.

FUTURES

After the Seahawks lackluster Week 1 performance against the Dolphins, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook moved Green Bay from 5-to-1 odds to win the NFC down to the 3-to-1 favorite. They also dropped the Pack from 10-to-1 down to 6-to-1 to win the Super Bowl. The only team with lower odds is the Patriots (5/1). Yes, Las Vegas likes the Packers and the betting public likes them too. Minnesota is still holding steady and respected at 10-to-1 to win the NFC and 20/1 to win the Super Bowl.

NEXT UP

The Westgate posts the following weeks spreads on Tuesday and for Week 3 the Packers are 7.5-point home favorites against the Lions (Detroit won there last year). The Vikings are getting +5.5 at Carolina.

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Packers rule CB Sam Shields out for Vikings game
September 17, 2016

GREEN BAY, Wis. (AP) The Green Bay Packers say Sam Shields won't play in Sunday night's game against the Minnesota Vikings after the cornerback was evaluated for a concussion this week.

The Packers initially listed Shields as doubtful on the injury report before ruling him out on Saturday. He missed practice this week while going through the NFL's concussion protocol .

Shields got hurt late in last week's season-opening win at Jacksonville. He also missed four games late last season because of a concussion.

Reserve Josh Hawkins will also miss the Vikings game with a hamstring injury. The Packers were down to three healthy cornerbacks on their active roster in Damarious Randall, Quinten Rollins and LaDarius Gunter. Micah Hyde, who plays throughout the secondary, can also slot in at cornerback.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 2

Odell Beckham Jr. hauled in a ridiculous 8 receptions for 150 yards and 3 TDs last time he played the Saints.

New Orleans Saints at New York Giants (-4.5, 52.5)

Giants’ elite receivers vs. Saints’ dreadful secondary

This game has the highest Vegas total of the week, and with good reason: when these two teams met at the Mercedes Benz Superdome last season, they combined for 101 points. Drew Brees and Eli Manning combined to throw an absurd 13 touchdown passes - and while it would be unreasonable to expect a carbon copy this weekend, don’t be surprised if the two gunslingers come close to combining for double-digit passing scores yet again.

The focus in this one will be on the Saints’ unproven secondary, which is expected to include a pair of undrafted free-agent cornerbacks in Ken Crawley and De’Vante Harris. None of New Orleans’ three CBs had played an NFL snap prior to last weekend’s 35-34 loss to visiting Oakland; Crawley, who replaced Delvin Breaux after the veteran suffered a broken leg, posted the lowest ProFootballFocus score of any defensive back in Week 1 after getting roasted for six catches and a score on seven targets.

This game should see a boatload of points, given the potency of both offenses and that New Orleans will likely find themselves in catch-up mode for the entire game. Look for Eli Manning to punish the Saints' secondary, with all of his receiving options healthy and set to contribute. Odell Beckham posted an 8-150-3 line in their previous meeting, and that was with Breaux on the field. It’s going to be ugly for fans of defense - and heaven on earth for fans who love scoring.

Daily fantasy watch: Odell Beckham Jr.


San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (-13.5, 45.5)

Panthers’ clock control vs. 49ers’ possession struggles

There’s a lot to like about Carolina this week, even though the Panthers are giving away nearly two touchdowns to visiting San Franciso. The 49ers are facing a short week in which they’ll cross the country to play a 10 am PT game against a defending Super Bowl finalist playing on nine days’ rest. And if that isn’t enough to convince you, consider that the two teams couldn’t be further apart when it comes to ball control.

The Panthers are coming off a sensational season buoyed at least in part by terrific possession metrics. Carolina led the league in time of possession in 2015 at 32:12 per game - one second better than the runner-up and division rival Atlanta Falcons. By comparison, San Francisco ranked 31st out of 32 teams at 26:23. “But Monty!” you say. “They run a Chip Kelly offense now!” That’s true - and the Kelly-led Eagles were the only team to have the ball less (25:51). Kelly finished last in TOP in each of his three seasons in Philadelphia.

Look for the Panthers to use a stout ground game and a dynamic-enough passing approach to keep the offense on the field and wear down the 49ers defense. And despite losing Josh Norman in the offseason, the Carolina defense should be plenty good enough to choke San Francisco’s meager offense into submission. It’s difficult to score points if you don’t have the ball - and the 49ers should find that out in a big way this weekend against a team that controlled the clock like no other last season.

Daily fantasy watch: Carolina D/ST


Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-6, 45)

Broncos’ impressive offense vs. Colts’ dreadful D

Much has been made about how this year’s incarnation of the Broncos can’t hope to compete for the Super Bowl title with an unproven QB at the helm. And while it remains to be seen whether Trevor Siemian can lead Denver back to the title game, fans and bettors alike have to love what they saw out of the Broncos in a Week 1 win over Carolina. And the best part is, things should get a whole lot better in Week 2 against an Indianapolis defense that looked putrid in its opener.

Let’s start with the Denver base three-wide offense, which featured seven players that posted PFF grades above 75 in Week 1. Center Matt Paradis (89.6) was particularly effective, creating plenty of room for running back C.J. Anderson to roam. Contrast that to what we saw from Indianapolis against visiting Detroit - eight members of the Colts’ base defense posted PFF ratings below 50, which is difficult for a professional football team to do in any given week.

The Broncos should easily carve up the Indianapolis defense on all levels. Siemian is in for a big game here, as are Demaryius Thomas - if he plays - and Emmanuel Sanders. The star of this one, however, should be Anderson, whose offensive line has a major advantage over the Colts’ offensive unit - particularly on the right side, where he’ll encounter three players who graded lower than 41.

Daily fantasy watch: C.J. Anderson


Atlanta Falcons at Oakland Raiders (-4.5, 49.5)

Raiders’ undisciplined play vs. Falcons’ measured approach

“Moxie” is an under-utilized word these days, but it’s hard to find a better term to describe Raiders head coach Jack Del Rio’s decision to go for two with his Raiders trailing by a single point late in New Orleans. Yet, while the decision proved to be the right one, it masked what was an otherwise mediocre performance from a Raiders team that had better figure out how to be more disciplined. Hope for a turnaround begins at home in Week 2 against a relatively measured Falcons team.

Oakland was one of the most undisciplined units in football last season, ranking third in the league in accepted penalties (138) and sixth in accepted yards (1,102). That pattern continued with emphasis in the Raiders’ Week 1 triumph over the Saints, as they incurred 14 penalties for a whopping 141 yards - including five offensive holding calls on five different players. D.J. Hayden was the worst offender on the defense, picking up two pass interference penalties and a holding call.

The Raiders might get away with it against weaker defensive teams like New Orleans, but a continued rash of penalties could torpedo what is set up to be a solid season. The Falcons were the fifth-least penalized team in the league in 2015 (100), and that disparity could result in major field position shifts Sunday afternoon. Oakland has a shot at a playoff berth this season, but if it can’t keep the flags in the referees’ pockets, it could be in for a rude awakening.

Daily fantasy watch: Julio Jones

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 18

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

TEN at DET 01:00 PM

DET -6.5

O 47.5

NO at NYG 01:00 PM

NYG -3.5

O 54.0

KC at HOU 01:00 PM

KC +1.0

U 42.0

CIN at PIT 01:00 PM

CIN +3.0

O 48.5

MIA at NE 01:00 PM

MIA +5.5

U 42.0

SF at CAR 01:00 PM

SF +12.0

U 44.0

DAL at WAS 01:00 PM

DAL +3.5

U 47.0

BAL at CLE 01:00 PM

CLE +4.5

U 42.0

TB at ARI 04:05 PM

ARI -7.5

SEA at LA 04:05 PM

LA +5.0

U 37.5

ATL at OAK 04:25 PM

ATL +4.5

O 48.0

IND at DEN 04:25 PM

IND +6.0

O 46.5

JAC at SD 04:25 PM

JAC +3.0

O 47.5



Posting all games now......will post sunday night game later
Heading to the tailgate in Oakland......Go Atlanta my straight up Upset of the day....
Good luck !