The Bum's 2016 NFL Sept. Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

[StarDust Bum]

SNF - Patriots at Cardinals
September 10, 2016

Only six teams have season win totals posted at 10 wins or more and Sunday night's matchup features two of them as the Tom Brady-less New England Patriots visit the Arizona Cardinals in the most interesting, and maybe most important, game of Week 1 action.

Both teams made the final four last season and both come in this year as conference favorites to make the Super Bowl.

Some of the pressing questions that will be answered is whether or not backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo can prove to be an adequate replacement as Brady serves his ridiculous four-game Deflategate suspension.

Also, can the Cardinals regroup after its no. 1 ranked offense got blown out in the NFC title game at Carolina?

Arizona Cardinals
Season win total: 10 (Over -170)
Odds to win NFC West: 6/5
Odds to win NFC: 4/1 (co-favorite)
Odds to win Super Bowl: 8/1

New England Patriots
Season win total: 10.5 (Over -120)
Odds to win AFC East: 4/9
Odds to win AFC: 11/4 (favorite)
Odds to win Super Bowl: 6/1 (favorite)

LINE MOVEMENT

When the Westgate SuperBook opened Week 1 numbers April 20, this was a pick 'em game showing that their early ratings on a neutral field with Brady starting had the Patriots 3-points better than the Cardinals. Within five days, bettors didn't think so and slightly pushed Arizona to -1, albeit with just a $5,000 limit at the time.

Shortly after, news broke that Brady's petition would be denied and the four-game suspension would stand. The Westgate reposted the number July 13 with Arizona installed as a 5.5-point favorite and on Sept. 2 it was pushed up -6. Through the same process, the total has also been adjusted down from an opener of 51 in April all the way down to 47.

BRADY EFFECT

Just how important is Tom Brady to the number? It's relative to who the back-up is, and apparently Garoppolo has some respect from Las Vegas even though he's never started a game and made only 31 attempts in two seasons since picked in the second round of the 2014 draft out of Eastern Illinois.

Aaron Rodgers is considered the most important player in the league worth up to 8-points in some oddsmakers minds, and his back-ups have proven to be disastrous when forced to pilot Green Bay's scheme. The initial reaction to the ratings by the Westgate is that Brady is worth 5.5-points, in part because the Bill Belichick way of doing things annually using interchangeable parts.

Remember, Matt Cassell went 11-4 when Brady got hurt in 2008. The Westgate also didn't budge much with the future odds, despite Brady missing the first four games. They're still favored to win the AFC East, AFC and Super Bowl, meaning they're still expecting the Patriots to get home field in the playoffs.

HONEY BADGER RETURNS

Tyrann Mathieu was the heart and soul of a Cardinals defense that helped the team get to a 13-2 start, including winning in his last eight starts. Late in the 15th game at Philadelphia, where he recorded his fifth interception of the season, he tore his ACL for the second time in his career and his season was over. While the injury wasn't reflected much in Arizona's rating, the defense's level of play the next three games without him was evident.

Arizona would go on to lose 36-6 at home to Seattle in Week 17, need overtime to beat the Packers 26-20 in the divisional playoff and then get embarrassed 49-15 in the NFC title game at Carolina. They didn't cover the number in any of those games, either.

He didn't play any pre-season games as precaution, but he's completely healthy and expected to be on the field for every defensive play against the Patriots. There aren't many defensive players that have an effect on a spread, but Mathieu's all-purpose ability make him the Cardinals most important defensive player.

NEW DEFENSIVE FORCE IN ARIZONA

Chandler Jones had 12.5 sacks in 15 regular season games for the Patriots last season, but New England decided to trade him to Arizona in March for offensive line help in Jonathan Cooper and the Cards second-round pick. Arizona's sack leader last season was Dwight Freeney with eight in 11 games. The trade immediately upgrades the Cards' defense that was No. 20 in the league last year with 36 sacks.

While Arizona got better, the Pats defense is downgraded, especially since Rob Ninkovich is suspended for the first four games for using a banned substance. Arizona also may have got one of the steals of the draft with speedy defensive lineman Robert Nkemdiche out of Ole Miss.

RECENT MEETINGS (New England 5-1 both SU & ATS last six)

9/16/12 - Arizona 20-18 at New England (NE -13, 47)
12/21/08 - Arizona at New England 47-7 (NE -9, 43.5)
9/19/04 - New England 23-12 at Arizona (NE -7.5, 41.5)

PATS RECENT ROAD WOES

The Patriots have lost their last their last three road games outright as favorites (-3 at DEN, -10 at MIA, -2.5 at NYJ). The Week 16 and 17 losses last season cost them home field for the playoffs which forced them to eventually play in Denver for the AFC Championship game, where they barely lost, 20-18.

Despite playing well below their rating going 4-6-2 ATS in their final 12 regular season games, the Patriots had the top Las Vegas rating -- just slightly above the Cardinals -- heading into the playoffs.

PATRIOTS AS A DOG

New England was an underdog only once last season, +2 at Buffalo, and won 40-32. Over the past three seasons the Pats are 6-1 both SU and ATS in the seven games where they got points and the total also has gone 'over' in six of those games. However, none were without Brady starting.

2015 ARIZONA-TO-OVER PARLAY

Arizona has stayed 'under' the total in six of its last eight games, but if you blindly played an Arizona-Over parlay for $100 every week of the 2015 regular season you would have come out $920 ahead as it cashed seven times. The Cardinals' top-ranked offense came out of the gate swinging early going 'over' the total in their first five games and covering four of them.

ROBERTS' PARLAY ADVICE

Most parlays aren't recommended because that is how the sports books make all their money, but a case can be made for playing the two-team 13-to-5 parlay (Bet $100 to win $260) because it actually offers true odds unlike the rest of the payouts on the books' parlay chart.

The side-to-total two-team parlay of the same game offers even more value because you're not dealing with outcomes in two different games. If you've handicapped a side you like well, then you probably have an idea how the flow of the game will be. If one thing happens, the other is more likely. And if you're wrong about the side, the parlay is dead anyways.

As an example, last season the Minnesota-to-Under parlay cashed in 11 of their 17 games.

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 2 has the Patriots 5.5-point home favorites over the Dolphins and the Cardinals -8.5 at home against the Buccaneers.

The Patriots number could move by as much as 1.5-point each way when re-posted Monday morning depending on how Garoppolo looks against the Cardinals.

[StarDust Bum]

Line Moves - Week 1
September 9, 2016


Las Vegas sports books kicked off the 2016 NFL season to proportions maybe never seen before with massive handle and a big 21-20 Broncos home win over the favored Panthers. Bettors came strong and hard on the Panthers to exact revenge from the Super Bowl loss pushing the line from Denver -3 in April to Carolina -3.

"We had a ton of handle last night, over seven-figures," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "It might be the most action we'll see on a regular season game all year. It was double what the Steelers-Patriots kickoff game was last season and also way more than the next most handled game of Week 1 in the Sunday night game (Giants-Cowboys) last season.

"We needed the Broncos to win outright and the Panthers missing that last field goal was huge for us. It was our best scenario."

On Friday afternoon, Simbal discussed all CG Technology's major line moves since posting Week 1 numbers on April 15 to where they're at now. So far, they've only had three big wise guy plays and four games are stacked large with massive public parlay plays. Let's take a look at how all the numbers have shaped up over the long summer of waiting for NFL action.

CG Tech books opened Atlanta as a 3-point home favorite over Tampa Bay in April with a total 48, and the number has been spot on with no big takers on either side as the Falcons now sit -3 (EV) and 47.5. The Bucs swept both games last season and the Falcons went on a 2-10 ATS slide after covering their first four games. The Falcons were also the best UNDER team last season going 13-2-1.

Minnesota opened as a 2-point road favorite at Tennessee on the basis of Teddy Bridgewater starting and the games was bet up -3 (-120) in early August. But when Bridgewater went out with a season-ending injury the line was readjusted to -1.5 and then moved to -2 with either Sam Bradford or Shaun Hill in as the replacement (no announcement from coach Mike Zimmer as of Friday). The opening total of 43 has dropped down to 41. The Vikings went to 12-4-1 to the UNDER last season.

The largest line move from April's early numbers to now, aside from Thursday night's game that moved six points, has been Philadelphia dropping from an 8.5-point favorite over Cleveland all the way down to -3.5. A lot has happened since then, most notably the Eagles deciding to trade Sam Bradford and not start Chase Daniel, who followed new coach from Kansas City, and opt to build for the future and start rookie first-round pick Carson Wentz. The Browns went 0-4 in the preseason while the Eagles were 4-0.

"It's been all straight bets moving the number," said Simbal. "The smart guys have been taking the Browns all the way. We have 25-times more money on the Browns and can't find many takers on the Eagles, who we are going to need as one of our biggest decisions on Sunday."

Cincinnati opened a 1-point road favorite at the Jets and by August the number had moved to -2 and earlier this week it went to -2.5. The total has dropped from 43 down to 41. The Bengals went 12-3-2 ATS last season, including a perfect 8-0 ATS on the road. The Jets have covered eight of its last 11 home games.

New Orleans opened pick 'em at home against Oakland with a total set at 50 and for over a onth now the Saints have been -1 and 51. The Raiders went 6-2 ATS on the road last season while the Saints lost four of eight at home where they allowed opponents to average 31.6 ppg. The Saints have gone OVER in five of six games the last three seasons when set as home favorite of -3 or less.

Kansas City opened as 7-point home favorites over San Diego and the number dropped this week down to -6.5 with the total also moving, jumping up from 43 to 44.5. The Chiefs have won the last four meetings -- all UNDER total -- and have covered four of the last five. The Chargers went 6-2 ATS on the road last season, three of them coming against AFC West opponents which ended a 0-9 ATS run against division foes.

"This is one of the three sharp plays we've had this week," Simbal said. "They like the Chargers."

Baltimore has been a strong 3-point home favorite throughout against Buffalo with the total moving from 43.5 to 44. The Ravens were one of the most disappointing teams last season covering just once at home last season.

Houston opened as a 6-point home favorite against Chicago and that's where it's at now, but not before the number dropped to -4.5 and then got as high as -6.5 earlier this week. The total has been bumped up from 44 to 44.5. "The Texans are one of the most bet public parlay games of the week," said Simbal.

Green Bay opened as a 3-point favorite at Jacksonville and it was quickly bet to -4.5 and moved to -5 this week. The total rose from 47 to a high of 48, but has settled at 47.5 this week. The Packers have gone UNDER in 11 of its last 15 games, but are 9-2 to the OVER in their last 11 September games.

"Tons of public action on the Packers making it one of our biggest liabilities of the week," Simbal said. "There aren't many large bets, but tons of small action adding up quickly."

Seattle's number has been gradually moving higher for their home game against Miami, opening at -8.5 to -9 in July, then to -10 in August and to -10.5 on Saturday. The total dropped from 44.5 to 44 in August. The Dolphins have covered the number only five times in its last 21 games. "This is another one of those big parlay games for us; one-sided action on Seattle," said Simbal.

Dallas opened as 4.5-point home favorites against the Giants when Tony Romo was expected play, and bettors took the points dropping it to -3 (-120) in early August. When Romo hurt his back on his third snap of his preseason, all books took the game off the board and regrouped. Because rookie QB Dak Prescott looked so good in preseason, there wasn't too big an adjustment with the Cowboys being reposted at pick 'em. The 3-point move also occurred on the total with the number dropping from 50 down to 46.5. The Giants have covered the last three meetings and the OVER has happened in their last seven.

Indianapolis opened as 4-point home favorites against Detroit and got as high as -4.5, but it's been steadily dropping this week. A few books in Las Vegas are at -3-flat, while CG has moved from -3.5-flat to -3.5 (-105) to -3.5 (EV). The total has remained steady at 50. Detroit won and covered its final three games last season and have stayed UNDER in 14 of their last 18 road games. "Yeah, the sharps like the Lions this week," said Simbal.

Arizona was posted as 1-point home favorites over New England when Tom Brady was expected to play, but then his Deflategate suspension was upheld and he's miss the first four games. CG immediately moved the number to -6 and then Patriots money pushed them to -4.5. By May 28, the number got as low as -3.5, but it's been on a steady climb upward since getting to a high of -6.5 on Thursday until going back to -6 a few minutes later. The total has taken a dive as well going from 51.5 all the way down to 46.

"We found that Patriots money is there at +6.5, which is why we're down to -6 now, but we were bet all the way up with Arizona bets, and we've also got Arizona as one of the big public favorites on parlays," said Simbal.

In the early Monday night game, Pittsburgh has been a steady 3-point favorite at Washington throughout. The total has dropped from 50.5 to 49.5. The Steelers stayed UNDER in eight of 10 road games last season.

The west coast Monday night game has seen Los Angeles -- love saying that in the NFL again -- go from a 1-point favorite at San Francisco up to -2.5. The total has dropped from 46 down to 43. The 49ers have stayed UNDER in eight of their last 10 games against NFC West opponents. "We just don't want this game to land 44, because our only OVER bet was at 43," Simbal said. "Every other limit bet we took was on the UNDER."

So for a quick recap, the sharps betting at CG Tech books like Cleveland, Kansas City and Detroit. The dreaded four-team parlay cashing they fear the most is Green Bay hooked up to Arizona, Seattle and Houston. Prior to Thursday's result, it was a dreaded five-teamer that included the Panthers.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL ACTION TRENDS

ATS

10:20 pm 9/12/2016
(481) LA RAMS @(482) SAN FRANCISCO
Play ON SAN FRANCISCO against the spread in All games when playing on Monday night.
The record is 30 Wins and 10 Losses since 1992 (+19 units)
BET NOW!
4:25 pm 9/11/2016
(473) NY GIANTS @(474) DALLAS
Play AGAINST DALLAS against the spread in All games in games played on turf.
The record is 1 Wins and 9 Losses for the last two seasons (-8.9 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 9/11/2016
(455) MINNESOTA @(456) TENNESSEE
Play ON MINNESOTA against the spread in All games in all games.
The record is 14 Wins and 3 Losses for the last two seasons (+10.7 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 9/11/2016
(455) MINNESOTA @(456) TENNESSEE
Play ON MINNESOTA against the spread in All games in all lined games.
The record is 14 Wins and 3 Losses for the last two seasons (+10.7 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 9/11/2016
(459) CINCINNATI @(460) NY JETS
Play ON CINCINNATI against the spread in All games in road lined games.
The record is 8 Wins and 0 Losses for the last two seasons (+8 units)
BET NOW!

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NFL MONEYLINE




10:20 pm 9/12/2016
(481) LA RAMS @(482) SAN FRANCISCO
Play AGAINST LA RAMS using the money line in Road games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 35 Wins and 79 Losses since 1992 (-49.2 units)
BET NOW!
7:10 pm 9/12/2016
(479) PITTSBURGH @(480) WASHINGTON
Play AGAINST WASHINGTON using the money line in Home games when playing on Monday night.
The record is 4 Wins and 14 Losses since 1992 (-16.65 units)
BET NOW!
7:10 pm 9/12/2016
(479) PITTSBURGH @(480) WASHINGTON
Play ON PITTSBURGH using the money line in All games when playing on Monday night.
The record is 27 Wins and 10 Losses since 1992 (+21 units)
BET NOW!
4:25 pm 9/11/2016
(475) DETROIT @(476) INDIANAPOLIS
Play AGAINST DETROIT using the money line in Road games in dome games.
The record is 9 Wins and 34 Losses since 1992 (-25.55 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 9/11/2016
(463) SAN DIEGO @(464) KANSAS CITY
Play AGAINST SAN DIEGO using the money line in All games in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points.
The record is 14 Wins and 30 Losses since 1992 (-25.25 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 9/11/2016
(467) CHICAGO @(468) HOUSTON
Play ON CHICAGO using the money line in Road games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 4 Wins and 0 Losses for the last two seasons (+8.3 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 9/11/2016
(461) OAKLAND @(462) NEW ORLEANS
Play AGAINST NEW ORLEANS using the money line in All games in September games.
The record is 1 Wins and 6 Losses for the last three seasons (-10.4 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 9/11/2016
(461) OAKLAND @(462) NEW ORLEANS
Play AGAINST OAKLAND using the money line in All games in games where the money line is +130 to -150.
The record is 40 Wins and 80 Losses since 1992 (-51.2 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 9/11/2016
(459) CINCINNATI @(460) NY JETS
Play AGAINST CINCINNATI using the money line in All games against AFC East division opponents.
The record is 13 Wins and 35 Losses since 1992 (-32.75 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 9/11/2016
(465) BUFFALO @(466) BALTIMORE
Play ON BALTIMORE using the money line in Home games in September games.
The record is 27 Wins and 7 Losses since 1992 (+21.7 units)
BET NOW!

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NFL TOTALS

10:20 pm 9/12/2016
(481) LA RAMS @(482) SAN FRANCISCO
Play UNDER SAN FRANCISCO on the total in Home games against conference opponents.
The record is 1 Overs and 11 Unders for the last three seasons (+9.9 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 9/11/2016
(453) TAMPA BAY @(454) ATLANTA
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the total in All games in all lined games.
The record is 2 Overs and 14 Unders for the last two seasons (+11.8 units)
BET NOW!
1:00 pm 9/11/2016
(453) TAMPA BAY @(454) ATLANTA
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the total in All games in all games.
The record is 2 Overs and 14 Unders for the last two seasons (+11.8 units)
BET NOW!

[StarDust Bum]

NFL POWER LINES

1:00 pm 9/11/2016
(463) SAN DIEGO @(464) KANSAS CITY
Play Line: KANSAS CITY -6.5
BTB PowerLine: KANSAS CITY -16
Edge On: KANSAS CITY 9.5

1:00 pm 9/11/2016
(455) MINNESOTA @(456) TENNESSEE
Play Line: MINNESOTA -2.5
BTB PowerLine: MINNESOTA -17
Edge On: MINNESOTA 14.5

1:00 pm 9/11/2016
(461) OAKLAND @(462) NEW ORLEANS
Play Line: OAKLAND 3
BTB PowerLine: OAKLAND -1
Edge On: OAKLAND 4

1:00 pm 9/11/2016
(465) BUFFALO @(466) BALTIMORE
Play Line: BUFFALO 3
BTB PowerLine: BUFFALO -1
Edge On: BUFFALO 4

1:00 pm 9/11/2016
(453) TAMPA BAY @(454) ATLANTA
Play Line: ATLANTA -2.5
BTB PowerLine: ATLANTA -7
Edge On: ATLANTA 4.5

1:00 pm 9/11/2016
(469) GREEN BAY @(470) JACKSONVILLE
Play Line: GREEN BAY -3.5
BTB PowerLine: GREEN BAY -10
Edge On: GREEN BAY 6.5

4:05 pm 9/11/2016
(471) MIAMI @(472) SEATTLE
Play Line: SEATTLE -10.5
BTB PowerLine: SEATTLE -20
Edge On: SEATTLE 9.5

4:25 pm 9/11/2016
(475) DETROIT @(476) INDIANAPOLIS
Play Line: DETROIT 2.5
BTB PowerLine: DETROIT -3
Edge On: DETROIT 5.5

4:25 pm 9/11/2016
(473) NY GIANTS @(474) DALLAS
Play Line: DALLAS 1
BTB PowerLine: DALLAS -5
Edge On: DALLAS 6

8:30 pm 9/11/2016
(477) NEW ENGLAND @(478) ARIZONA
Play Line: NEW ENGLAND 9.5
BTB PowerLine: NEW ENGLAND +2
Edge On: NEW ENGLAND 7.5

[StarDust Bum]

NFL BEST BETS:

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks...........0 - 0 - 0

O/U Picks...........0 - 0 - 0


SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 11

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

CLE at PHI 01:00 PM

PHI -4.0

O 41.0

BUF at BAL 01:00 PM

BAL -3.0

U 44.5


CHI at HOU 01:00 PM

CHI +5.5

U 42.0


OAK at NO 01:00 PM

OAK +2.5

O 50.0


CIN at NYJ 01:00 PM

CIN -1.0

U 42.0


SD at KC 01:00 PM

SD +6.5

U 45.5


MIN at TEN 01:00 PM

TEN +2.5

U 40.5


GB at JAC 01:00 PM

JAC +3.5

O 47.0


TB at ATL 01:00 PM

TB +2.5

U 45.5

[StarDust Bum]

AFTERNOON GAMES

MIA at SEA 04:05 PM

MIA +10.5

U 43.5


DET at IND 04:25 PM

IND -2.5

O 50.5


NYG at DAL 04:25 PM

NYG -1.0

O 47.5

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

NE at ARI 08:30 PM

ARI -9.5

U 44.5

[StarDust Bum]

Monday’s six-pack

Six most popular picks in the Westgate Super Contest in Las Vegas:

6) Jets +2.5– 403– W

5) Ravens -3– 411– W

4) Texans -6– 419– W

3) Giants -1.5– 428– L

2) Cardinals -6– 452– L

1) Lions +3.5– 465– W (4-2 in Week 1)


Monday’s List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……..

Random thoughts on all of Sunday’s NFL games………

Buccaneers 31, Falcons 24– Three of Bucs’ four TDs came on plays of 23+ yards; former Atlanta HC Smith gets some revenge here- he is Tampa Bay’s new DC. Before the 2015 Draft, there was a lot of debate as to whether Winston/Mariota was better choice as the #1 pick. Not much debate now; Winston is very good.

Vikings 25, Titans 16– Minnesota won despite not scoring TD on offense; LY, that happened only two times in whole NFL, with Denver getting both wins. Titans led this game 10-0 at half; Vikings looked awful on offense, but then the Minnesota defense scored two TDs in second half to win the game. Three trips to red zone, only six points for Minnesota. Hard to believe Bradford won’t be the starting QB soon.

Eagles 29, Browns 10– Philly had 17-yard edge in average starting field position; Wentz was 22-37/270 passing as he won his first NFL start. Browns have 17 rookies on their squad and it showed. RGIII hurt his left arm late in game (check status). Cleveland had four plays of 20+ yards; all four came on 1st down plays (rest of NFL, 38 of 83 plays of 20+ yards came on first down plays).

Bengals 23, Jets 22– Jets had seven sacks, outrushed Cincy 152-57, but Dalton led Bengals 55 yards on nine plays on GW drive, with Nugent making 47-yard FG with 0:54 left for the win. Teams got to red zone a combined eight times, with only three TDs- they combined to go 7-23 on third down. This was a fun game to watch; Dalton threw for 366 yards for Bengals.

Game of the Day: Raiders 35, Saints 34– Old-style AFL game here, with total yardage 507-486. Jack Del Rio went for 2 points and the win with 0:47 here and got it- on their last three drives, Oakland ran 17 plays for 210 yards and three TDs. Brees threw for 419 yards including a 98-yard TD pass. Raiders survived 14 penalties for 141 yards.

Comeback of the Day: Chiefs 33, Chargers 27 OT– San Diego led this game 24-3 with 5:00 left in 3rd quarter; horrific loss. On their last six drives, Chiefs scored four TDs, kicked a FG, gaining 317 yards on 42 plays with one turnover. Alex Smith is now 69-52-1 as an NFL starter.

San Diego started three drives in KC territory, but scored only one TD, one FG on those drives and that wound up costing them.

Ravens 13, Bills 7– Bills ran only 48 plays for 160 yards. My one thought here is: thank God Rex Ryan doesn’t coach the Rams. Buffalo had a 9-yard edge in field position, which is pretty strong, but still lost.

NFL-wide this week, 16 of 67 TDs this week (so far) came on scoring plays on 20+ yards; 51 of those 67 TDs came on drives of 70+ yards. No TDs on defense/special teams (yet).

Texans 23, Bears 14– Houston converted 12 of 20 third down plays, ran 18 more plays than Chicago, outscoring Bears 13-0 in second half. On four drives that started 75+ yards from goal line, Texans did not score; on their other seven drives with better field position, they scored three TDs, kicked two FGs. Houston sacked Jay Cutler five times.

Packers 27, Jaguars 23– Green Bay led 21-17 at half, won despite scoring only six points in second half on a sweltering day in North Florida. Jacksonville was pretty impressive in defeat; they outgained Pack 348-294, averaged 7.1 yards/pass, but ran for only 48 yards.

Seahawks 12, Dolphins 10– After not scoring a TD the whole game, Russell Wilson led Seattle on a 14-play, 75-yard drive to win the game in last minute. Tough loss for Miami; they were +2 in turnovers and had 10-yard edge in field position, but were outgained 352-222 and had only 64 rushing yards. Dolphins had a 26-yard FG blocked and lost ball on downs in red zone early in game.

Giants 20, Cowboys 19– First time Giants beat Cowboys in eight Week 1 meetings. Not many teams go 10-17 on third down and score only one TD; only Dallas TD drive was 35 yards. Giants had three TDs, no FG tries; Dallas had one TD, four FG tries.

Lions 39, Colts 35– Watching last 2:00 of this game, with Luck/Stafford driving their teams in 2:00 drill for go-ahead scores; star QBs cannot be overpaid– really difficult to have good team without one. Detroit led this game 21-3, almost let it slip away.

Patriots 23, Cardinals 21– Garoppolo passed his first of four tests as Brady’s stand-in; Pats were 10-16 on 3rd down, averaged 7.3 yds/pass attempt. Arizona missed a 46-yard FG with 0:04 left that would’ve won it. Weird week; teams that were -2 or worse in turnovers are 3-1, very unusual.

Favorites are 4-10 vs spread so far this week, home teams 6-8; over is 6-8.

[StarDust Bum]

Steelers head to D.C.
September 9, 2016

NFL Week 1 MNF Betting Preview

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Washington Redskins

Sportsbook.ag Lines: Pittsburgh (-3.5); Total Set at 50.5

Two playoff teams from the 2015 season meet in the first game of the annual Week 1 MNF double header and the perception of these two teams is very different coming into 2016. On one hand we've got the Pittsburgh Steelers and a WR in Antonio Brown who fantasy gurus have been raving about all summer. Brown is even being mentioned as a potential NFL MVP candidate – a rarity for WR's – and he's just one of the many weapons the Steelers have. There are plenty of bettors out there who've also got Super Bowl futures tickets in their pocket on the Steelers as they expect this organization to go all the way in 2016.

On the other hand we've got a Washington team who won their division a season ago and almost everyone believes it was a bit of a fluke. They did catch an enormous amount of breaks in that Tony Romo went down for Dallas, the Eagles absolutely stunk and hated their head coach, and the Giants couldn't get out of their own way and cost themselves multiple games late. But you've still got to be a quality team to win your division in this league and Washington could surprise many this season by proving 2015 wasn't as “fluky” as some are led to believe.

So based on those two underlying perceptions, is this -3.5 spread a trap game for Pittsburgh backers? Is the number way too low? Or is their value in the total?

It's tough to consider any Week 1 game a “trap game” as every player across the league is amped up to get a new season started. But while some will lean that way because the Steelers have a rematch with Cincinnati on deck (after how the Wildcard game between those two rivals finished), I wouldn't be so quick to subscribe to that belief. Pittsburgh will be a very good team this year and while they could have an eye on the Bengals, there is no way they want to enter that Week 2 game with an 0-1 record.

That being said, running to the betting window and laying the points with Pittsburgh is something I'm not looking to do either, as the spread was set at this number for a reason and that nasty hook on -3 could very well come into play. Washington's got their own team to worry about and clearly they are eager to prove all their doubters wrong this year.

Therefore, it's the total I'm looking at here as the bulk of the action so far has come in on the high side of this number, yet it's moved down off the key number of 51. That's a pretty big sign to me that while everyone in the NFL betting or fantasy worlds believe Pittsburgh's offense will be one of the best in 2016, it might take them a week or two to fully get going and reach their potential. Remember, most of these starters had limited snaps over the preseason and conditioning and being in “football shape” will still take some time. It's not like Washington's defense is atrocious either and all that time to prepare for Antonio Brown and Big Ben has to help out Washington's defense here.

So rather than wrestle with the idea of this being a short spread or some type of trap game, I'm going to go ahead and follow the move here on the total and take the 'under' 50.5 points. Both of these teams will be working out the cobwebs early on, and with Pittsburgh on a 0-4 O/U run on the road and Washington on a 0-4 O/U under the Monday night lights, this game won't surpass that number.

Take Under 50.5 points.

[StarDust Bum]

Monday's Tip Sheet
September 11, 2016

Steelers (-3, 49 ½) at Redskins – 7:10 PM EST – ESPN

Pittsburgh
Preseason Record: 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS
2015 Record: 10-6 SU, 9-6-1 ATS
Season Win Total: 10 ½ (Under -130)

Washington
Preseason Record: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS
2015 Record: 9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS
Season Win Total: 7 ½ (Over -120)

LINE MOVEMENT

There hasn’t been much change to this line when openers were released on April 15 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. Pittsburgh opened up as 2 ½-point road favorites, but have moved slightly up to a field goal favorite. The total has taken a bit of a drop from its opener of 51 five months ago, falling to 50 at several books and even down to 49 ½ at others.

ROAD OPENER WOES

The Steelers haven’t fared well in their opening road game of the season, losing five consecutive times in this situation. Last season, Pittsburgh lost a 28-21 decision at New England, but managed a cover as 7 ½-point underdogs thanks to a touchdown pass from Ben Roethlisberger to Antonio Brown with two seconds left. In three of those losses in this span, the Steelers’ defense has allowed 28, 31, and 35 points in openers away from Heinz Field.

YOU LIKE THAT?

The Redskins were profitable in the underdog role in 2015, covering in nine of 14 opportunities when receiving points. Kirk Cousins stepped up late in the season for Washington by throwing 19 touchdown passes and two interceptions, while leading the ‘Skins to a 6-2 SU/ATS record in the final eight games and the NFC East title.

SILENT BELL

The Steelers will be without top running back Le’Veon Bell, who is suspended three games by the NFL for missing a drug test. Bell played in only six games last season before suffering a season-ending knee injury, averaged a career-high 4.9 yards a carry. DeAngelo Williams is expected to carry the load in the Pittsburgh backfield in Bell’s absence, as the veteran running back tallied 907 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2015.

O FOR GRUDEN

The Redskins have yet to win a season opener under head coach Jay Gruden, losing to the Texans in 2014 and the Dolphins in 2015. In both of those interconference matchups, Washington cashed the UNDER, while scoring a total of 16 points in those losses. However, Washington has performed well at home against AFC opponents in Gruden’s tenure by posting a 3-1 SU/ATS record.

MONDAY NIGHT MIKE

Playing under the Monday night lights hasn’t fazed Mike Tomlin and the Steelers, who have won four of their last five in this situation. Pittsburgh won in its lone Monday appearance last season, rallying past San Diego on a Bell touchdown in the final seconds of a 24-20 triumph as four-point underdogs. The Steelers are 2-3 ATS in this span, with a pair of wins in the favorite role by three points apiece at Tennessee (2014) and against Kansas City at home in overtime (2012).

RECENT MEETINGS (Steelers 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS the last three matchups)

10/28/12 – Pittsburgh 27-12 vs. Washington (Pit -4 ½, 44)
11/3/08 – Pittsburgh 23-6 at Washington (Pit +1, 37 ½)
11/28/04 – Pittsburgh 17-6 vs. Washington (Wsh +10, 34 ½)

Rams (-2 ½, 42 ½) at 49ers – 10:20 PM EST - ESPN

Los Angeles
Preseason Record: 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS
2015 Record: 7-9 SU, 7-8-1 ATS
Season Win Total: 7 ½ (Under -200)

San Francisco
Preseason Record: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS
2015 Record: 5-11 SU, 7-9 ATS
Season Win Total: 5 ½ (Under -130)

LINE MOVEMENT

The Rams have held steady as 2 ½ point favorites since the opening numbers were released in April. The total has seen the most movement, starting at 47 and falling all the way to 42 ½ at a majority of books.

LA LA LAND

The Rams are making their return to Los Angeles this season following a 21-year stint in St. Louis. Although the Rams won’t open the season in Southern California, they travel to the northern part of the state as part of their west coast return. Top pick Jared Goff heads back to the area where he played his college football at California, but he will not start the opener for Los Angeles, as Case Keenum will make the start for the Rams. Los Angeles has not tasted a winning season since 2003, while not qualifying for the postseason since 2004.

CHIP’S SHOT

The 49ers took a major step back following Jim Harbaugh’s tenure as head coach, as San Francisco posted a disappointing 5-11 record in Jim Tomsula’s lone season as head coach. Following Tomsula’s abrupt firing, former Eagles’ head man Chip Kelly came on to bring San Francisco’s offense around, even though the quarterback situation is unsettled. Blaine Gabbert will start Monday’s opener ahead of Colin Kaepernick, as this Niners’ offense tries to improve after scoring 20 points or less 13 times in 2015.

UNDER THUNDER

San Francisco was nearly automatic when it came to low-scoring affairs at Levi’s Stadium. In 2015, the 49ers finished UNDER the total in seven of eight home contests, while posting more than 21 points only once in Santa Clara. Both meetings against the Rams last season went UNDER, including San Francisco’s 19-16 overtime victory to close out the campaign in Week 17 on 39 total.

RAM ROUGH

The highway wasn’t friendly to the Rams last season, compiling a 2-6 SU and 2-5-1 ATS record. Coincidentally, their two road victories came at Arizona as seven-point underdogs, 24-22 and at Seattle as 11 ½-point ‘dogs, 23-17. Four of the Rams’ six away losses came to playoff squads, which included defeats at Green Bay, Washington, Minnesota, and Cincinnati. In two opportunities as a road favorites, the Rams lost each time, as Los Angeles is listed as away chalk for the fourth time since 2011.

GOLDEN NUGGETS

The 49ers haven’t been strong inside NFC West play the last two seasons, putting together a 3-9 SU and 3-8-1 ATS mark in this span. However, San Francisco has performed well in season openers recently by winning and covering five consecutive times in Week 1. The 49ers were in a similar spot last season as a home underdog on Monday night, shutting down the Vikings, 20-3 as three-point ‘dogs.

RECENT MEETINGS (49ers 4-2 SU and ATS the last six matchups)

1/3/16 – San Francisco 19-16 (OT) vs. St. Louis (SF +3, 39)
11/1/15 – St. Louis 27-6 vs. San Francisco (STL -7 ½, 41)
11/2/14 – St. Louis 13-10 at San Francisco (STL +10 ½, 44)
10/13/14 – San Francisco 31-17 at St. Louis (SF -3 ½, 44)

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Today, Week 1
September 12, 2016

SCOREBOARD


Monday, Sept. 12

Pittsburgh at Washington, 7:10 p.m. EDT. Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown will be without running back Le'Veon Bell, suspended the first three games for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy. The matchup to watch is Brown vs. All-Pro cornerback Josh Norman. This is the first time they're facing each other since 2014, when Norman was in Carolina and before he became a star and signed a $75 million, five-year deal with the Redskins.

LA Rams at San Francisco, 10:20 p.m. EDT. Case Keenum will start at quarterback for Los Angeles and Blaine Gabbert will go for San Francisco. Rams running back Todd Gurley was the 2015 Offensive Rookie of the Year. San Francisco RB Carlos Hyde has shown bursts of stardom while battling injuries his first two seasons.

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STARS

Passing

-Drew Brees, Saints, was 28 for 42 for 423 yards and four touchdowns in New Orleans' 35-34 loss to Oakland. It was Brees' 14th game with at least 400 yards passing, tying Peyton Manning for the most in NFL history.

-Alex Smith, Chiefs, finished 34 for 48 for 363 yards with two touchdown passes and an interception, and added a 2-yard rushing TD in overtime in Kansas City's 33-27 win over San Diego.

-Jameis Winston, Buccaneers, was 23 for 33 for 281 yards and four touchdown passes and an interception in Tampa Bay's 31-24 victory over Atlanta.

-Carson Wentz, Eagles, finished 22 for 37 for 278 yards and two touchdown passes in his first regular-season start in Philadelphia's 29-10 win over Cleveland. He is the first Eagles rookie to start at quarterback in a season opener since Davey O'Brien in 1939.

-Matthew Stafford, Lions, finished 31 for 39 for 340 yards and three touchdowns in Detroit's 39-35 win over Indianapolis.

-Andy Dalton, Bengals, was 23 for 30 for 366 yards with a touchdown and an interception in Cincinnati's 23-22 win over the New York Jets.

-Andrew Luck, Colts, was 31 for 47 for 385 yards and four touchdowns in Indianapolis' 39-35 loss to Detroit.

-Jimmy Garoppolo, Patriots, went 24 for 33 for 264 yards and a TD in his first NFL start, a 23-21 win at Arizona.

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Rushing

-Matt Forte, Jets, had 22 carries for 96 yards and five receptions for 59 yards in New York's 23-22 loss to Cincinnati.

-Spencer Ware, Chiefs, had 11 carries for 70 yards and a touchdown, and seven receptions for 129 yards in Kansas City's 33-27 overtime win over San Diego.

-Lamar Miller, Texans, had 28 carries for 106 yards in Houston's 23-14 win over Chicago.

-Melvin Gordon, Chargers, had 14 carries for 57 yards and two touchdowns in San Diego's 33-27 overtime loss to Kansas City.

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Receiving

-A.J. Green, Bengals, had 12 catches for 180 yards, including a 54-yard touchdown, in Cincinnati's 23-22 win over the New York Jets.

-Willie Snead and Brandin Cooks, Saints. Snead had nine receptions for 172 yards and a touchdown, while Cooks had six catches for 143 yards and two touchdowns, including a 98-yard TD which was the longest scoring play in Saints history. However, Oakland rallied for a 35-34 win, and Amari Cooper had six receptions for 137 yards.

-Jordan Matthews, Eagles, finished with seven receptions for 114 yards and a touchdown in Philadelphia's 29-10 victory over Cleveland.

-Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals, made eight catches for 81 yards and two TDs in a 23-21 loss to New England. Fitzgerald's second touchdown reception was the 100th of his career.

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Special Teams

-Dan Bailey, Cowboys, was 4 for 4 on field goals, including a 56-yarder and 54-yarder in Dallas' 20-19 loss to the New York Giants.

-Blair Walsh, Vikings, was 4 of 6 on field goals in Minnesota's 25-16 win over Tennessee.

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Defense

-Eric Kendricks and Danielle Hunter, Vikings. Kendricks returned an interception 77 yards for a touchdown and Hunter returned a fumble 24 yards for a TD in Minnesota's 25-16 win over Tennessee.

-Leonard Williams and Steve McLendon, Jets. Williams had 2+ sacks and McLendon added two of New York's seven sacks of the Bengals' Andy Dalton in New York's 23-22 loss.

-Whitney Mercilus, Texans, had two sacks and a forced fumble in Houston's 23-14 win over Chicago.

-Jerry Hughes, Bills, had two sacks in Buffalo's 13-7 loss to Baltimore.

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BIG PLAY IN THE BAYOU

Drew Brees and Brandin Cooks, Saints, connected for a franchise record 98-yard scoring play against the Raiders. Seeing the speedy Cooks in single coverage on first down from his 2-yard line, Brees lofted a pinpoint pass down the left sideline that hit Cooks in stride. Cooks easily sped away from cornerback Sean Smith and free safety Reggie Nelson. The play also was Brees' longest career completion. The previous longest scoring play in Saints history was a 90-yard pass from Billy Joe Hobert to Eddie Kennison against Atlanta on Oct. 10, 1999. The Saints' previous longest play from scrimmage was as 96-yard passing play - not for a TD - from Billy Kilmer to Walter Roberts on Nov. 19, 1967, the franchise's inaugural season.

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JUST FOR KICKS

Five teams saw their kickers miss extra points Sunday, with only one being costly. The New York Jets lost 23-22 to Cincinnati, with Nick Folk missing an extra point kick for the first time in his 10-year NFL career. It ended a streak of 312 straight made PATs; he had also set the NFL record for most extra points without a miss with 322 overall, including the playoffs. Other who missed but saw their teams win were Blair Walsh of the Vikings, Randy Bullock of the Giants, Steven Hauschka of the Seahawks, and Matt Prater of the Lions.

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WORTH NOTING

Four games have been decided by exactly one point in Week 1, the most on NFL kickoff weekend. ... Houston's Will Fuller became the first player in franchise history to have 100 yards receiving in a debut with 107 yards and a touchdown in Houston's 23-14 win over the Bears. Brock Osweiler threw for 231 yards and two touchdowns in his debut with Houston after the Texans lured him from Denver with a $72 million contract. ... The Cowboys fell to 1-12 without Tony Romo since the first of two broken collarbones last season in Week 2. Because of Romo's back injury, Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott were the first rookie quarterback-running back combo to start an opener for the Cowboys since Roger Staubach and Calvin Hill in 1969. New York beat Dallas in an opener for the first time in nine tries. ... Tennessee is 2-15 since the start of the 2014 season on its home field, with both wins coming against Jacksonville. The Titans lost to Minnesota 25-16. ... Oakland rookie running back Jalen Richard had a 75-yard rushing touchdown on his first career carry in the Raiders' victory. Richard is the fourth player in NFL history with a rushing touchdown of at least 75 yards in his NFL debut. He joined Oran Pape (78 yards, Sept. 28, 1930), Alan Ameche (79 yards, Sept. 25, 1955) and Ottis Anderson (76 yards, Sept. 2, 1979). ... The Bengals beat the Jets for the first time in 10 meetings in New Jersey with a 23-22 win.

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INJURIES

Houston middle linebacker Brian Cushing and San Diego wide receiver Keenan Allen left their respective games with injuries. Allen left the field on a cart after suffering what looked like a serious right knee injury with less than two minutes left in the first half. Cushing's diagnosis was only slightly more optimistic. He also hurt one of his knees but walked off the field under his own power. Cushing also missed significant playing time with a range of injuries in 2012 and 2013, but started every game last season. ... Giants linebacker J.T. Thomas III was also carted off the field, after spraining a knee on a kickoff return on the final play of the first half against Dallas. ... Bucs defensive end Jacquies Smith was carted off the field with a right knee injury against Atlanta. Indianapolis defenders T.J. Green (sprained knee) and Patrick Robinson (medical evaluation) went down in the same series in the first half, and stayed out for the rest of the game against Detroit.

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QUOTABLE

''Everyone knew about our strategy. I didn't really ask for any feedback there. I said, `When we score here, we are going to go for two and win it right here.''' - Raiders coach Jack Del Rio on the decision to go for a 2-point conversion in the final minute of Oakland's 35-34 win over New Orleans.

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QUOTABLE II

''Joe is as tough as a $2 steak. What's a $2 steak nowadays?'' - Ravens coach John Harbaugh on quarterback Joe Flacco.

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY'S BEST BETS ALL BETS BASED ON 100.00.....AS WEEKS GO BY I'LL RATE THEM WITH *****.....WITH STARS RATING EACH GAME.........GOOD LUCK !

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks.......7 - 5 - 1...........58.33%..........+150

O/U Picks.......8 - 5 - 0...........61.53%..........+200

[StarDust Bum]

Books produce Week 1 win
September 12, 2016

The Las Vegas sports books came into the Sunday night game having experienced a decent win on the first week of NFL action, but needed the Patriots with Jimmy Garoppolo quarterbacking to come up big as 9.5-point underdogs at Arizona to keep all their chips. They got their wish in the Patriots 23-21 win as the smallest player on the field, Cardinals kicker Chandler Catanzaro, missed a 47-yard field goal in the final minute.

But the events that happened earlier Sunday morning had more of an effect on the win for the day. When underdogs go 8-5-1 against-the-spread in the first 14 games of the week, it should be a monster win for the house coming into the isolated late game -- not a lot of risk, but that wasn't the case. The books needed the Patriots to save their day, in part because of teaser risk.

"We needed that," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal of Catanzaro's missed field goal which also kept the game UNDER 46 (closed 44.5).

Every sports book in the city needed that in a game that many had posted the Cardinals as 1-point favorites in mid-April when Tom Brady was expected to play to the point of kickoff where the some books were as high as -9.5. The spread up until late Saturday night had the Cardinals -6.5. That's a big move and tight end Rob Gronkowski being out wasn't even worth a full point.

The teaser risk on the day saw eight of the 14 games, beginning with Thursday's 21-20 Broncos win, have both sides win. That's an awesome proposition for bettors where they can take the most reliable spreads or odds among all sports where an additional 6-points is offered. There aren't many bettor deals in the casino where there's an option that the house can't win when both sides of options win when results occur. But there was a savior for the house on teasers when a safety was called in the Lions 39-35 win at Indianapolis as time expired.

"The Lions safety at end of the game helped us with the teasers," said MGM Resorts VP of race and sports Jay Rood. "But our pricing with teasers doesn't get us the type of action other places might, so it's never really that big of a risk for us."

The Colts were four-point favorites heading into the week and on Sunday it dropped to -2.5 by kickoff. The Lions were one of five underdogs on the week that won outright.

The wise guys had a few big plays on Sunday morning that had a ripple effect on the final posted results. Because of large wagers from respected money, the line moved and the books found themselves eventually getting sided or middled because of it.

The most one-sided bet game of the week on parlay action was the Packers at whatever number at Jacksonville.

William Hill sports books had 84 percent of their tickets written on the week on the Packers, but the sharps moved in Sunday morning and took a spread from +5.5 down to 3.5. It was a wild turn of events from the game being lopsided on Green Bay to needing the Jaguars to win straight bets. Sharps got the money on the game in a Packers 27-23 win while a large percentage game day bettors got to lay the Pack -3.5 on their parlays.

"I'd say about 40 percent of our overall action comes on game day," said Boyd Gaming sports book director Bob Scucci when explaining how much action comes through at the last minute. That's a big chunk of the pie, and also a big thank you from cheese-head bettors laying -3.5.

That type of situation happened on a few games such as the Giants closing as a 1-point favorite in their 20-19 win at Dallas after being +1 or pick 'em for most of the week (Dallas -3.5 before Tony Romo got hurt).

"It was a pretty good day," Rood said. "We would have done better if Dallas held on to win. That was the only afternoon game that got away from us."

And then there was the Chiefs come-from-behind 33-27 overtime home win after the Chargers jumped out to a 21-3 lead. The wise guys loved +7 and +6.5 over the weekend, while the public liked the Chiefs at any number. So when they laid KC -6 on game day, they got a push and it extended more risk for the books.

"The Chargers outright win would have been huge for us," said Rood who was looking to beat out large money-line parlays tied to the Chiefs.

Seattle helped the books by not covering the 10.5-point spread at home against Miami in their 12-10 win. It also knocked out a bunch of parlays risk and was one of the few games that both sides didn't cover on teasers.

Simbal said his CG Tech books had their biggest parlay risk coming into the week on the Texans, Seahawks, Packers and Cardinals. Two-out-of-four isn't bad, but Houston's 23-14 come-from-behind win was the gateway to parlay and teaser success at most books.

"We would have had a great morning, but we needed the Bears," said Rood.

Rood was also excited about his additional money handled this week due to MGM Resorts first NFL season with mobile phone wagering.

"It (handle) was helped by a big first weekend of mobile wagering," said Rood. "We broke even on the phones, but were happy with the increase in action."

Rood says his regular limits are cut in half for the phones. The percentage of straight bets and wise guy plays are much more increased over the phones than over the counter. Those over the counter parlay card bettors this week is what saved a lot of the books, especially those games with stale numbers left open for wagering, such as the Packers (-4.5) and Cardinals (-6.5).

"The parlay cards were the strength of our day" Scucci said prior to the Cardinals kickoff. "Without them, we'd be losing."

There have been better Week 1 NFL Sundays in years past, but the books got bamboozled a little bit by the sharps following their lead on games even though they had risk with on the other side.

"It was an okay day, but I'm little disappointed based on the results of the games that we didn't do better," Scucci said. "The teasers took away what could have been a great day."

[StarDust Bum]

Betting Recap - Week 1
September 12, 2016

Overall Notes

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 1 RESULTS

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-5
Against the Spread 5-7-2

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 6-8
Against the Spread 4-8-2

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 8-6

The largest underdog to win straight up

Patriots (+9, +330 ML) at Cardinals, 23-21

The largest favorites to cover

Texans (-5.5) vs. Bears, 23-14
Eagles (-3.5) vs. Browns, 29-10
Packers (-3.5) at Jaguars, 27-23

Giant Road Win

-- The New York Giants opened the Ben McAdoo Era with a road victory over the rival Dallas Cowboys, 20-19. Moneyline bettors can send a thank you note to Cowboys WR Terrance Williams, who made the unfortunate decision to stay in bounds with no timeouts remaining and the clock winding down. Dallas did not have enough time to run another play as a result, as fans of Big Blue and bettors everywhere celebrated the veteran's ill-advised decision. New York improved to 5-3 SU/6-2 ATS in their past eight regular season trips to Dallas. The Giants host the New Orleans Saints in Week 2, opening as a five-point favorite.
Winning Some Bucs

-- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers held on for an NFC South Division road victory against the Atlanta Falcons by 31-24 count, as Jameis Winston tossed four touchdowns to lead them. In the Winston Era the Bucs are 3-0 SU/ATS against the Falcons, including 2-0 SU/ATS in the Georgia Dome. The Bucs head to the desert to face an angry Arizona Cardinals team which fell at home to the New England Patriots.

Total Recall

-- The 'over' cashed in eight of 14 games heading into Monday night's doubleheader. In games featuring two AFC teams, the 'over' went 2-1. In games featuring two NFC teams, the 'over/under' split 1-1, while AFC vs. NFC games ended up 5-4 in favor of the 'over'.

-- Two games featured lines with total of 50 or more points, and each of those games still saw the 'over' connect. The Detroit Lions-Indianapolis Colts (51) game had the highest total, and saw the highest total output with 74 total points. The Oakland Raiders-New Orleans Saints (50) game was also a shootout, featuring a total of 69 points.

-- The two games with the lowest totals on the board also had 'over' results. The Minnesota Vikings-Tennessee Titans contest (40) was the lowest total on the Week 1 board, but managed to inch over. It actually a bad beat , as the Vikings defense posted two touchdowns to pick up the anemic offense. The offenses in this game accounted for just 27 total points, while the Vikings D was good for 14. The opening game Thursday between the Carolina Panthers-Denver Broncos (40.5) also just went 'over' by the narrowest of margins.

-- The 'over/under' went 1-1 in the first two primetime games in Week 1. Officially, the 'over/under' is 1-1 (50.0%) through 2 games under the lights. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Browns QB Robert Griffin III (shoulder) and WR Terrelle Pryor (shoulder) each suffered shoulder injuries in their loss at Philadelphia. RG3 will be re-evaluated Monday, while Pryor was icing his shoulder and reportedly suffered just a bruise.

-- Chargers WR Keenan Allen (knee) suffered what is feared to be a torn anterior cruciate ligament in the Week 1 game at Kansas City and he is likely to miss the remainder of the season.

-- Dolphins DE Mario Williams (concussion) is in the league's concussion protocol after being shaken up in the Week 1 loss at Seattle.

-- Saints CB Delvin Breaux (leg) fractured his fibula in the loss against Oakland. It's bad news for an already depleted and inexperienced Saints secondary which was picked apart in their 35-34 Week 1 loss.

-- Seahawks QB Russell Wilson (ankle) injured his ankle in the Week 1 win against Miami, although he was able to finish the game. Still, he reported being sore after the game and will be re-evaluated Monday.

Looking Ahead

-- The Bills host the Jets on Thursday night. Buffalo has won and covered five straight meetings against the Jets, and they have won and covered in four straight home games against Gang Green, last losing at home to New York back on Nov. 6, 2011. Buffalo opened as a field goal favorite against their AFC East rivals.

-- The Browns will host the Ravens in their home opener in Week 2. Cleveland is a dismal 2-14 SU in their past 16 meetings against Baltimore, including 1-7 SU/1-6-1 ATS in their past eight home meetings with Baltimore since Sept. 30, 2007. Cleveland lost and failed to cover in their Week 1 loss at Philadelphia, while Baltimore won and covered in their opener against Buffalo.

-- The Patriots host the Dolphins in Week 2, looking to drop their rivals two games back after just two games played. New England has won seven straight meetings in Foxboro dating back to Sept. 21, 2008, and they have covered four straight home meetings against the Dolphins, and five of the past six. Miami opened with a 12-10 road loss at Seattle, but they were able to cover as double-digit underdogs. The Patriots won on the road against the Cardinals despite entering as nine-point underdogs, cashing as +330 ML 'dogs.

-- Pittsburgh welcomes Cincinnati to 'Steelers Country' in Week 2, and normally that doesn't end well for the Bengals. The Steelers are 5-3 SU/ATS in their past eight home meetings against the Bengals, and they're 12-5 SU and 11-5-1 ATS in the past 17 meetings overall between the regular season and playoffs. Pittsburgh is also 12-1 SU and 9-4 ATS in its past 13 home openers since the start of the 2003 regular season.

-- The Vikings will christen their new stadium next Sunday night againt the rival Packers, hoping their new building has a lot more luck than their previous homes. Minnesota has dropped three straight home meetings against the Packers, and they're 1-5 SU and 3-3 ATS in their past six home games againt Green Bay. In the past 12 meetings with the Packers, Minnesota is just 2-10 SU and 5-7 ATS.

[StarDust Bum]

Opening Line Report - Week 2
September 11, 2016

While bettors and bookmakers alike must be careful not to overreact to what they saw in the opening week of a football season, certainly there are lessons to be learned from finally getting to watch each team in action.

John Avello, vice president of race and sports at the Wynn Las Vegas, said while “everything pretty much played to form” on Sunday, there are a few teams’ ratings that warrant adjustments based on Week 1 performances.

“The Lions are a little better than I thought, Tampa Bay’s pretty good, too,” Avello offered as examples.

He also mentioned the Cowboys’ Dak Prescott and the Vikings’ Shaun Hill as quarterbacks who impressed him Sunday.

Here’s a look at early lines for Week 2 of the 2016 NFL season. Number are current as of 10 p.m. ET, with opening numbers and early movement noted as well.

Thursday, Sept. 15

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-3 even, 42.5)

While the opening number of Bills -3 was given the slightest of adjustments in the Jets’ direction, it’s unlikely we’ll see this line stray too far from the key number ‘3’. The last eight meetings between these AFC East foes have featured point spreads of 2.5 to 3.5. “3’s the right number. That’s where it’s got to be,” said Avello.

Sunday, Sept. 18

Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions (-5.5/-110, 47)

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Detroit -4 and was pushed to -5, but multiple other Las Vegas bet shops posted -5.5 as their original numbers. The Lions were listed at -3.5 on the Westgate’s advanced Week 2 lines (issued last Tuesday), so, as Avello suggested, the market seems to be pleased with the Lions’ win in Indianapolis.

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (-2/-115, 43.5)

The Westgate bounced between Houston -2 and -1.5 on Sunday night, as most shops were dealing -1.5. It’s hard not to like the resilience the Chiefs displayed in their come-from-behind win at home vs. the Chargers on Sunday. “They’re gonna be a tough team all year long,” Avello said of Andy Reid’s men.

Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots (-4.5/-110)

The Westgate opened New England -5 and moved to -4.5 on Sunday night, while CG Technology hung -4. Other shops waited as Jimmy Garoppolo made his debut as a starter at Arizona in primetime.

Baltimore Ravens (-6/-110, 43.5) at Cleveland Browns

Bettors faded the Browns early at The Wynn, as the Ravens were bet from -4 to -6 in one flash.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5/-110)

Big revenge spot for the Bengals, who surely haven’t gone a day without thinking about blowing last season’s playoff game against their division rival. There was an even mix of 3s and 3.5s for next week’s contest, and if the number closes at a field goal plus the hook, it will be the largest in the last seven meetings between these AFC North clubs.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (-3/even)

The Westgate remained at Washington -3.5 through the first few hours of betting Sunday night, while other shops dealt 3s. Despite taking the loss at home to the Giants, nothing we saw from rookie Dak Prescott will prompt bets against Dallas in this spot.

New Orleans Saints at New York Giants (-5/-105)

This line opened as high as -6 at CG, and it ranged from -4.5 and -5.5 around Vegas as of this writing.

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (-14/-110)

For the second season in a row, the schedule makers are not being kind to San Francisco. After playing the late game Monday night, they travel to the east coast for an early Sunday kickoff to face a quality team off nine days of rest. The 49ers were put in the same position last year, when they were waxed at Pittsburgh in Week 2 (43-18 as 6-point dogs) after beating Minnesota in Monday night’s second time slot.

Avello said while the unfavorable scheduling would be a bigger factor later in the season, he added of the 49ers, “The problem is they’re playing a team coming off a loss that lost just one game last year. So, no, it’s not a particularly great spot for them.”

Early bettors agree, pushing the opening line at the Westgate from Carolina -13.5 to -14.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals (-7/-110)

Avello is not the only one who liked what he saw from Jameis Winston and Co. The Westgate listed Tampa Bay +8.5 on its advanced Week 2 lines and reopened the Bucs +7.5 after their win in Atlanta on Sunday. There was a further adjustment to +7 as the Cardinals played the Patriots on Sunday evening.

Seattle Seahawks (-3.5/-110) at Los Angeles Rams

The Seahawks squeaked out a win as 10.5-point home favorites against Miami on Sunday, and the Westgate opened them -3.5 for the Rams’ L.A. premier next week. That’s down from the -4.5 listed on the SuperBook’s advanced lines.

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-6/-110, 45))

There was a significant early move from the Westgate’s opening number of -4 on this AFC clash, and based on these teams’ Week 1 showings, it’s easy to see why.

Atlanta Falcons at Oakland Raiders (-5.5/-110, 48)

The Westgate opened Oakland -6.5, moved to -7 about 15 minutes later, but shifted down to -5.5 as the nigh went on. The Raiders could be had for as cheap as -4.5 at the Stratosphere on Sunday night.

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers (-3/-105, 48)

Bettors laid the -2.5 with the Chargers on the earliest Vegas lines, with the number settling at -3 throughout town Sunday night.

Green Bay Packers (-2/-105, 45) at Minnesota Vikings

The Westgate opened Green Bay -1.5 and moved to -2; The Wynn opened -2 and went to -2.5. Interesting to note Green Bay was -1 in a 30-13 win at Minnesota (with a healthy Teddy Bridgewater) last November. According to Avello, there won’t be an adjustment to next week’s price if Vikings coach Mike Zimmer makes the move from Shaun Hill to Sam Bradford.

“Hill played well (Sunday),” Avello said. “The Vikings played a good game, so there’s no reason for Bradford to even being playing now.”

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears (-3/even, 43)

The Westgate opened Chicago -2.5, moved to -2 less than 40 minutes later, before moving back up the ladder to -3, where most shops landed Sunday night. While Carson Wentz played well in his Philly debut, oddsmakers aren’t dismissing the Bears.

“The Bears had a decent game (Sunday), Avello said. “Houston isn’t an easy place to go down and win, and they did have the lead in that game. They won’t be downgraded in their rating (because of Sunday’s loss).”