NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 1 (Thursday, September 8 - Monday, September 12)

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, September 12


Notable NFL trends after 1st Sunday:
Road teams: 10-4 ATS (71.4%)
Underdogs: 9-5 ATS (64.3%)
Road Dogs: 8-3 ATS (72.7%)

[Udog]

NFL Week 2 Opening Line Report: Packers will help open Vikings' new stadium as road faves

These NFC North rivals are both coming off season-opening victories and will next square off under the Sunday night spotlight at the Vikings’ brand-spanking new U.S. Bank Stadium.

Week 1 of the NFL season is almost in the books, save for the two Monday night contests. We discuss the Week 2 opening lines with Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology, and Peter Childs, risk management supervisor for offshore site Sportsbook.ag.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+2.5)

These NFC North rivals are both coming off season-opening victories and will next square off under the Sunday night spotlight at the Vikings’ brand-spanking new U.S. Bank Stadium. Green Bay edged a game Jacksonville squad 27-23 laying 3.5 points on the road Sunday, while Minnesota bested host Tennessee 25-16 as 2.5-point chalk.

“We opened Packers -2.5 as they travel on back-to-back weeks,” Childs said. “The Packers weren’t at all impressive in their game against the Jags and easily could have lost. That said, the Vikings did all their scoring on defense, and regardless of who’s starting at quarterback against Green Bay, we see them struggling big time to score.

“The Packers, especially Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson, looked a bit rusty. I believe they’ll work that out and play a much better game in Week 2. And they’d better, as the Vikings have arguably the best defense in the NFL this year.”

CG Technology also opened the Packers at -2.5.

“Green Bay is close to a touchdown better, but the Vikings’ prowess at home gives them the benefit of 3.5 points,” Simbal said.

Childs added a few other factors to note for this contest.

“It’s a rivalry game, Sunday night game, first regular-season game in the Vikings’ new stadium, so the place is going to be nuts,” he said. “The public will be squarely on the Packers here, so unless the sharps get in line to back the Vikings, this line could easily get to Packers -3.”

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-4)

New England is already 1-0 SU and ATS without the suspended Tom Brady, against likely the toughest opponent it will see while its star quarterback sits out a four-game suspension. On Sunday night at Arizona, the Patriots went off as 9-point underdogs and came away with a suspenseful 23-21 outright victory.

Miami also went on the road and played a very good opponent to nearly a standstill, but didn’t get the better end of the score. The Dolphins lost to Seattle 12-10 as a hefty 10.5-point underdog.

It doesn’t get easier for Miami in New England’s home opener.

“Without Brady and Gronkowski, the Pats are about 0.5 to 1 point better,” Simbal said. “Add in a field goal for home field to get to the opening number.”

With the Pats playing Sunday night, Sportsbook.ag held off on the opening line.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)

Pittsburgh is in one of two games today that wrap up Week 1, traveling to D.C to take on the Washington Redskins. Cincinnati, meanwhile, snuck out of MetLife Stadium with a 23-22 victory over the New York Jets on Sunday, with a last-minute field goal providing a win and cover for the 1-point underdog.

“These teams are about even, so the Steelers get the nod for the home-field advantage,” Simbal said of the opener at CG books in Las Vegas, including The Cosmopolitan, Venetian and the M.

Since the Steelers haven’t played yet, Sportsbook.ag opted to wait on its opening line.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (-3)

But for bad late clock management, the Cowboys could very well have started out 1-0 under rookie quarterback Dak Prescott, subbing for the injured Tony Romo. Alas, Dallas lost to the New York Giants 20-19 as a 1-point home fave.

Now, the Pokes hit the road for another NFC East Division matchup. Washington hasn’t yet taken the field in Week 1, hosting Pittsburgh in one of the two Monday night matchups.

“The Cowboys looked good with Prescott,” Simbal said. “On a neutral field, these teams are even, so the Redskins get a field goal for home-field advantage.”

Childs said Sportsbook.ag will wait on its opening number, since Washington is playing tonight.