Announcement

**Udog** · 09-05-2016, 09:04 AM

NFL Week 1 Opening Line Report: Cowboys seeing sharp action of re-opening as home dogs

The Tony Romo injury caused books to reopen the Giants as 1.5-point road faves from 4-point dogs.

After months of anticipation, the NFL finally returns with real games as the regular season kicks off Thursday night. At some sportsbooks, the lines on Week 1 have been up for several weeks or more, with several significant shifts in those numbers.

We talk about four key season openers with Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology in Las Vegas, and Peter Childs, risk manager for offshore site Sportsbook.ag.

Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos – Open: Broncos -3; Move: Broncos -1.5, Panthers -1, Panthers -3

Right from the get-go, the 2016 season gets a Super Bowl rematch. The Broncos went in as 5-point underdogs in last season’s NFL title tilt and completely shut down Cam Newtown and Co. on the way to a 24-10 victory.

That marked Peyton Manning’s last game, and Brock Osweiler was expected to provide a steady transition following Manning’s retirement. But that narrative went out the window when Osweiler left for greener pastures with the Houston Texans, leading to a 180-degree swing in the line at CG’s books, including The Cosmopolitan, the M and the Venetian.

“Due to Denver’s Super Bowl win, the line opened at Broncos -3, with the assumption that Osweiler was going to start,” Simbal said. “Once the game opened (in mid-April), bets began coming in on the Panthers, and the line moved their way. Once Osweiler left, it shifted all the way to the Panthers.”

Denver went 15-4 SU and a more modest 10-8-1 ATS in 2015, while the Panthers won their first 14 games last year and finished 17-2 SU, 13-6 ATS.

Sportsbook.ag’s opening line was much tighter, at Broncos -1 as Childs gave Denver modest home-field respect while knowing quarterback could be an issue. But as with CG, that respect didn’t last for long.

“We quickly took on Panthers money, and we knew quite early that the public was going to be squarely behind the Panthers in this revenge game,” Childs said. “We quickly went to Panthers -1 and kept ticking up until just last week, when we eventually got to Panthers -3.5, our current number.”

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys – Open: Cowboys -4; Move: Giants -1.5, Giants -1

This NFC East rivalry gets renewed right away with a 4:25 p.m. Eastern start on Sunday. Unfortunately, the game lost a lot of its luster and the Cowboys lost their status as home favorites when quarterback Tony Romo went down with a back injury in Week 3 of the preseason.

Romo is expected to miss at least the first six weeks of the regular season for Dallas, which went 4-12 SU and 4-11-1 ATS last year without Romo almost the entire way. He broke his collarbone in Week 2, came back at Thanksgiving and reinjured it, then missed the rest of the season.

The Giants didn’t fare much better in 2015, going 6-10 SU, 8-7-1 ATS.

“Before the Romo injury, the Cowboys were a solid 4-point favorite. But once we learned he was out, we immediately closed the game and assessed the situation,” Childs said. “While everyone is in love with Romo’s backup, Dak Prescott, he’s still a rookie and hasn’t taken a regular-season NFL snap, so we have major reservations about his ability until proven otherwise.

“With a major downgrade at quarterback, we dropped the line a full 5 points, making the Giants a small 1.5-point favorite. We’ve written good action at that price, but we booked some sharp action on the Cowboys at +1.5 and moved it down a half-point to Giants -1.”

CG experienced similar movement, though the game is now rated a toss-up.

“In Week 1 last year, the same game opened Cowboys -7,” Simbal said of a contest Dallas won 27-26 at home. “After some of the Giants’ offseason moves, and the move toward the Giants in futures, the opener here was Cowboys -4.5. After the Romo injury, it went to a pick.”

New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals – Open: Cardinals -1; Move: Cardinals -4, Cardinals -6

It’s another game more about who’s not playing than who is, with Tom Brady not under center for the Patriots while he serves a four-game suspension over DeflateGate. Once that decision came down in late April, the line took off in favor of the host Cardinals.

“These are both very even and popular teams, so Arizona (initially) got the slight nod of being a 1-point favorite at home,” Simbal said. “Once the Brady suspension broke, it went all the way up to 6.”
New England was 13-5 SU, 8-8-2 ATS last year, bowing out in the AFC Championship Game, a 20-18 loss to Denver as a 3-point road favorite. Arizona (14-4 SU, 9-9 ATS in 2015) reached the NFC Championship Game but got torched at Carolina 49-15 as a 3-point underdog.

Childs said Sportsbook – which opened the Pats at -1 – took the game down even before the Brady news, based on chatter that the courts were going to uphold the suspension. After the decision came down, the game went back up with Arizona at -5.

“We saw real nice, two-way action,” Childs said. “More times than not, going from Brady to Jimmy Garoppolo would require a much bigger line move, in my opinion. But when considering Bill Belichick has had all summer to game-plan, we didn’t want to give more than 6 points to arguably the best coach in the NFL.

“That said, sharp money as well as some public money has pushed this line to 6. I believe that money represents Garoppolo’s struggles in the preseason. He flat-out didn’t look all that good.”

Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Redskins – Open: Steelers -3; Move: none

Both these teams made the playoffs last year, and Pittsburgh is among the shorter favorites this season to win the Super Bowl. Unlike the aforementioned three season openers, though, the line in this contest has been steady.

“The Steelers are about a touchdown better on a neutral field, so Washington got 3-4 points for being at home,” Simbal said. “The opener here of -3 was fine since there has been little movement.”

The Steelers went 11-7 SU, 9-6-3 ATS last season, bowing out in the divisional playoffs with a 23-16 loss as 7-point ‘dogs at Denver. The Redskins won a flagging NFC East with a 9-7 SU and ATS mark, then lost to Green Bay 35-18 as 2-point home chalk in the wild-card round.

Sportsbook bounced back and forth between its opener of 3 and 3.5 a couple times, with the three-game suspension of Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell weighing into a shift back to 3. But Pittsburgh continues to get the bulk of the action.

“The Bell suspension really hasn’t stopped support for the Steelers,” Childs said. “With more and more money coming in on the road favorite, we went back to 3.5 about a month ago and haven’t moved off that number.”

**Udog** · 09-05-2016, 09:06 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 1

Thursday, September 8

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CAROLINA (17 - 2) at DENVER (15 - 4) - 9/8/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 73-49 ATS (+19.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 1-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 1-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, September 11

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TAMPA BAY (6 - 10) at ATLANTA (8 - 8) - 9/11/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ATLANTA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 2-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 2-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (11 - 6) at TENNESSEE (3 - 13) - 9/11/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 45-25 ATS (+17.5 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 7-23 ATS (-18.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 7-23 ATS (-18.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CLEVELAND (3 - 13) at PHILADELPHIA (7 - 9) - 9/11/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (12 - 5) at NY JETS (10 - 6) - 9/11/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OAKLAND (7 - 9) at NEW ORLEANS (7 - 9) - 9/11/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 39-76 ATS (-44.6 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN DIEGO (4 - 12) at KANSAS CITY (12 - 6) - 9/11/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 37-21 ATS (+13.9 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 4-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (8 - 8) at BALTIMORE (5 - 11) - 9/11/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHICAGO (6 - 10) at HOUSTON (9 - 8) - 9/11/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GREEN BAY (11 - 7) at JACKSONVILLE (5 - 11) - 9/11/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 172-122 ATS (+37.8 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (6 - 10) at SEATTLE (11 - 7) - 9/11/2016, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY GIANTS (6 - 10) at DALLAS (4 - 12) - 9/11/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DETROIT (7 - 9) at INDIANAPOLIS (8 - 8) - 9/11/2016, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND (13 - 5) at ARIZONA (14 - 4) - 9/11/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 42-24 ATS (+15.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 86-49 ATS (+32.1 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, September 12

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (11 - 7) at WASHINGTON (9 - 8) - 9/12/2016, 7:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 79-108 ATS (-39.8 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 79-108 ATS (-39.8 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games when playing on Monday night since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 79-108 ATS (-39.8 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA RAMS (7 - 9) at SAN FRANCISCO (5 - 11) - 9/12/2016, 10:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 171-214 ATS (-64.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 171-214 ATS (-64.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 79-109 ATS (-40.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 123-169 ATS (-62.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 55-83 ATS (-36.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS is 31-51 ATS (-25.1 Units) in September games since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 30-10 ATS (+19.0 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-2 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-2 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 09-05-2016, 09:06 AM

NFL

Week 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, September 8

8:30 PM
CAROLINA vs. DENVER
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Carolina's last 17 games
Carolina is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games
Denver is 2-3-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina

Sunday, September 11

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. NEW ORLEANS
Oakland is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
New Orleans is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games at home

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. ATLANTA
Tampa Bay is 6-18 SU in its last 24 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Atlanta is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Houston is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. KANSAS CITY
San Diego is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
San Diego is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. TENNESSEE
Minnesota is 7-17-1 SU in its last 25 games ,on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Tennessee is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
GREEN BAY vs. JACKSONVILLE
Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Green Bay's last 15 games
Jacksonville is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Jacksonville is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. BALTIMORE
Buffalo is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing Buffalo

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. PHILADELPHIA
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. NY JETS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing NY Jets
Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
NY Jets are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games at home
NY Jets are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games when playing Cincinnati

4:05 PM
MIAMI vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games
Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Seattle is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games at home
Seattle is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Miami

4:25 PM
NY GIANTS vs. DALLAS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Giants last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Giants last 5 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games

4:25 PM
DETROIT vs. INDIANAPOLIS
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Detroit's last 18 games on the road
Detroit is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Indianapolis's last 23 games
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit

8:30 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. ARIZONA
New England is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
New England is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Arizona is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing New England
Arizona is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New England

Monday, September 12

7:10 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. WASHINGTON
Pittsburgh is 2-3-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Pittsburgh's last 11 games on the road
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh

10:20 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Los Angeles is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Los Angeles's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Francisco's last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing at home against Los Angeles

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 09-05-2016, 11:07 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 1

Thursday, September 8

Carolina @ Denver

Game 451-452
September 8, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
146.356
Denver
140.869
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 5 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 3
41 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-3); Over

Sunday, September 11

Green Bay @ Jacksonville

Game 469-470
September 11, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
137.550
Jacksonville
123.760
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 14
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 4 1/2
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-4 1/2); Under

Miami @ Seattle

Game 471-472
September 11, 2016 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
131.766
Seattle
138.698
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 7
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 10 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+10 1/2); Over

NY Giants @ Dallas

Game 473-474
September 11, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
126.935
Dallas
130.887
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 4
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
Pick
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
Under

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta

Game 453-454
September 11, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
127.877
Atlanta
126.458
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 1 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 3
48
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+3); Under

Detroit @ Indianapolis

Game 475-476
September 11, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
131.492
Indianapolis
128.295
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 3
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 4 1/2
51
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+4 1/2); Under

Minnesota @ Tennessee

Game 455-456
September 11, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
138.482
Tennessee
121.368
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 17
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 1
41
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-1); Over

New England @ Arizona

Game 477-478
September 11, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
130.223
Arizona
139.301
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 9
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 6
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(-6); Under

Cleveland @ Philadelphia

Game 457-458
September 11, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
126.703
Philadelphia
127.665
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 1
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 4
41 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+4); Under

Cincinnati @ NY Jets

Game 459-460
September 11, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
137.726
NY Jets
132.817
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 5
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 2 1/2
42
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(-2 1/2); Under

Oakland @ New Orleans

Game 461-462
September 11, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
131.627
New Orleans
129.309
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 2 1/2
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 1
51
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(+1); Over

San Diego @ Kansas City

Game 463-464
September 11, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Diego
131.044
Kansas City
134.112
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 3
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 7
45
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(+7); Under

Buffalo @ Baltimore

Game 465-466
September 11, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
130.829
Baltimore
136.717
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 6
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 3
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(-3); Over

Chicago @ Houston

Game 467-468
September 11, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
130.735
Houston
133.614
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 3
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 6
44
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+6); Over

Monday, September 12

Pittsburgh @ Washington

Game 479-480
September 12, 2016 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
133.002
Washington
136.544
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 3 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 3 1/2
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+3 1/2); Under

Los Angeles @ San Francisco

Game 481-482
September 12, 2016 @ 10:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Los Angeles
132.612
San Francisco
127.509
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Los Angeles
by 5
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Los Angeles
by 2 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Los Angeles
(-2 1/2); Over

**Udog** · 09-06-2016, 08:10 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 1

Carolina @ Denver– Super Bowl winners are 7-3-3 vs spread in Week 1 the following year; Super Bowl losers are 2-11 vs spread in season openers the following year. Broncos do look lot different, with Siemian at QB; they’re 15-1 SU in last 16 home openers, 18-8-1 vs spread in last 27, 5-3 vs spread in last eight season openers. Since ’12, Carolina is 5-9 vs spread as a road favorite; they lost 34-0/20-17 in only visits here, with last one in ’04- they’ve lost four of five overall vs Broncos. Panthers won last two road openers; they’re 10-5 vs spread in last 15 road openers, with three of last four staying under total. Denver is 5-7 vs spread as home underdog since 2010. This is the first Week 1 Super Bowl rematch since 1970.

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta– Bucs’ new DC is Mike Smith, the former Falcons’ head coach. Last three years, Falcons are 5-17 vs spread in games with spread of 3 or less points; they’re 4-11 in last 15 games as home favorite. Last two years, Bucs are 2-9 in games with spread of 3 or less points- they swept Falcons 23-20/23-19 LY; they’ve split last four visits to Georgia Dome. Tampa Bay is 3-7 in last 10 road openers, but 4-1 vs spread as a dpg in road openers. Under is 16-7 in their last 23 road openers. Atlanta won, covered its last eight home openers; they’re 14-3 vs spread in last 17 home openers. Falcons covered last eight times they opened season at home; three of its last four home openers went under the total.

Minnesota @ Tennessee– Hill gets start at QB for Minnesota, but Bradford will be starter soon. Hill was 3-5 for ’14 Rams, his only starts since ’10. Last four years, Minnesota is 20-7 vs spread in games that have a spread of 3 or less points; Vikings open on road for 8th time in last nine years; they open a new domed stadium next week. Last three years, Tennessee is 2-8-2 vs spread in games that have spread of 3 or less points; since ’11, they’re 6-14-2 as home dogs. Minnesota won five of last six series games, with last four wins over Tennessee by 10+ points; they split two visits to Nashville, with last one in ’08. Vikings are 3-5 in last eight season openers, 4-11 in last 15 road openers; under is 9-3 in their last 12 road openers. Titans are 7-3 last 10 times they opened season at home; four of their last five season openers stayed under total.

Cleveland @ Philadelphia– Rookie Wentz gets nod at QB for Eagles, despite hardly playing in preseason (ribs). Browns started season 1-0 once in last 17 years; they’re 2-8-1 vs spread in last 11 openers, 4-7-2 in last 13 road openers. Cleveland is on their sixth coach in nine years; they’re 0-4 vs Eagles, losing its last visit to Philly 30-10 in ’08. Eagles are on third coach in four years; since ’10, they’re 11-19 vs spread in non-divisional home games. With rookie Wentz red-shirting this year, Bradford gets nod at QB ; Iggles are 2-8 vs spread in last 10 home openers; 0-7 when favored by less than eight points. Browns are 13-15-2 as road dogs last four years. Under is 6-2-1 in Eagles’ last nine home openers, 8-5 in Cleveland’s last 13 season openers.

Cincinnati @ NJ Jets– Fitzpatrick didn’t sign until an hour before training camp started, but had full camp; Jets are 7-2 vs spread as home underdogs last three years. Bengals lost last nine games vs Jets in NY/NJ area, with last series win here in 1981. Jets are 9-2 in last 11 series games, but lost 49-9 at Cincinnati in 2013 in last series game. Gang Green won last five home openers (three by 5 or less points); they’re 7-1 in last eight season openers. Bengals split last six season openers, which were all on the road. Since 2011, Cincinnati is 11-6-1 as road favorite- they are 17-5-3 vs spread in last 25 non-divisional road tilts. Over is 6-1 in Cincy’s last seven road openers, 3-5 in Jets’ last eight openers at home.

Oakland @ New Orleans– Former Oakland coach Allen is Saints’ new DC. Since ’08, Saints is 24-10-3 as non-divisional home favorite. Last four years, Raiders are 4-15 vs spread in games with spread of 3 or less points, but they’re 9-4 in last 13 games as non-divisional road dogs. Saints won last three series games by average of 34-15– Raiders are 2-3-1 vs Saints on Bourbon Street. Oakland lost 12 of last 13 openers; since ’07, they’re 6-1-1 vs spread as an underdog in road openers. Over last eight years, Saints are 14-8-2 as favorite of 3 or less points; they lost four of last five openers; they’re 13-5 in last 18 home openers (5-2-1 vs spread when favored in HO’s). Over is 11-5-1 in last 17 Oakland road openers, 3-9 in last 12 Superdome openers.

Chargers @ Chiefs– San Diego didn’t score TD vs Chiefs LY, losing 33-3/10-3; they lost last two visits to Arrowhead, 19-7/10-3, as KC won last four series games. Chargers are 18-8-1 as a road underdog last four years, 7-3 in last 10 AFC West road games. Chiefs are 3-7 in last 10 season openers, 5-11 in last 16 home openers; they’re 2-9-1 vs spread as a fave in home openers. San Diego covered its last four openers; they’re 8-5-1 vs spread as an underdog in road openers. Since ’08, Kansas City is 13-23 as a home favorite (10-12 under Reid). Under is 19-4-2 in Chiefs’ last 25 home openers, 3-1 in Bolts’ last four road openers. Chiefs covered only eight of last 23 AFC West home games.

Buffalo @ Baltimore– Last four years, Ravens are 5-10-2 vs spread as favorite of 3 or less points. Home team won last five series games; Bills lost last three visits to Baltimore, by 14-12-3 points. Buffalo covered nine of last 11 openers; they’re 9-5 vs spread in last 14 road openers, winning three of last five SU. Ravens lost last two home openers after 9-0 streak prior to that- they’re 13-6 vs spread as a favorite in home openers. Rex Ryan became a HC because of success Raven defense had while he was there. Buffalo is 14-10-1 in last 25 games with spread of 3 or less points- they’re 6-16-2 vs spread in last 24 non-divisional road tilts. Over is 4-1 in Bills’ last five road openers, 5-2 in Baltimore’s last seven home openers.

Chicago @ Houston– Osweiler is 5-2 as an NFL starter; he makes his Houston debut here. Texans are 7-3 as home favorites in two years under O’Brien. Fox is 10-6-1 as a road dog last five years; Bears were 5-2-1 as road underdog LY. Chicago is opening on road for first time since ’09; they’re 3-5-1 vs spread in last nine openers, 10-8 in last 18 road openers. Houston won six of its last seven openers, five of last six home openers- they’re 4-4 as favorites in HOs. Texans won all three series games, by 19-7-7 points; Bears lost 31-24 in only visit here, in 2008. Under is 10-2 in Chicago’s last 12 road openers, 7-4 in Houston’s last 11 home openers. Bears covered seven of last ten non-conference road games.

Green Bay @ Jacksonville– Packers lost three of last four season openers, three of last four road openers (1-4 vs spread in last five); their last five openers went over, as did eight of last ten road openers. Jaguars are 2-7 in last nine home openers, losing last four by an average of 30-9. Jags are 4-6 as an underdog in HOs. Green Bay is 7-4 as road favorite last two years, since 2011, Pack is 9-16 vs spread in non-conference road games. Jags are 5-12-1 as a home underdog under Bradley; they’re 7-18 in last 25 non-divisional home games. Under is 8-3-1 in Jaguars’ last 12 home openers. Packers are 3-2 in series; three of last four meetings were decided by 7 or less points. Pack won two of three visits here, with last trip here in ’08.

Miami @ Seattle– Biggest spread of Week 1. Since 2008, Miami is 25-14-1 vs spread in its non-divisional road games- they’re 4-7 as road underdogs last two years, Seahawks won, covered 12 of last 13 home openers- they’re 10-1 as faves in HOs. Dolphins are 3-9 in last 12 road openers, 1-6-1 vs spread as an underdog. Miami is 3-0 in last three season openers; they were underdog in two of three. Long road trip to start season; Fish won five of last six series meetings, with four of six decided by 4 or less points. Dolphins won three of last four visits here, with last one in ’04. Under is 17-5 in Miami’s last 22 road openers, including last seven in row; under is 12-2-1 in Seattle’s last 15 HOs. Last six years, Seattle is 22-11 vs the spread as a home favorite.

NJ Giants @ Dallas– Rookie QB Prescott played well in preseason; how will he do when things speed up in regular season? Cowboys won five of last six series games, winning last three here by 5-1-10 points; average total in last seven series games, 53.7. Dallas covered one of last eight home openers; since ’93, they’re 7-13 as favorite in HOs. Six of its last eight home openers were decided by 4 or less points. Giants started 0-1 last five years; they lost five of last six road openers- since ’96, they’re 8-10 as an underdog in road openers. Over is 14-2 in Giants’ last 16 road openers, 6-3 in Cowboys’ last nine home openers. Since ’07, Giants are 9-5 as a non-divisional road dog; over is 11-5 in their road gmes last two years. Big Blue fired their Hall of Fame head coach, kept two coordinators; how does that make them better?

Detroit @ Indianapolis– Lion coach Caldwell led Colts to AFC title in 2009, losing Super Bowl to Saints; Detroit is 4-7 as road dog last two years. Indy drafted four offensive linemen last spring; that is where their problems lied LY, keeping QB Luck upright. Indy is 21-26-1 as home favorite the last eight years, 12-17 in non-division games. Lions are 3-12 SU in last 15 road openers (4-8 vs spread as a dog); they allowed 27.3 ppg in last four AOs. Indy is 1-5 as a favotite in home openers, going 2-3 SU in last five. Colts won last four series games, three by 10+ points; Lions lost 30-18/31-21 in two visits here, last of which was in 2008. Over is 7-3-1 in Detroit’s last 11 road openers, 1-4 in Colts’ last five openers.

New England @ Arizona– Garoppolo starting at QB for Patriots puts this into uncharted territory; Patriots are 11-5-1 in last 17 tries as a road underdog, 8-4-1 outside their division. Arizona is 10-7-1 as home favorite under Arians; they’re 10-4-1 in last 15 non-divisional home games. Pats won 11 of last 12 season openers, winning four of last five road openers, with three of last four decided by 3 or less points. Arizona won last six home openers, covering four of last five- they won five of last six series openers, but lost five of last six games vs Patriots, winning 20-18 in last meeting in Foxboro, in ’12. NE won last three visits here, by 2-24-11 points. Under is 3-1 in Patriots’ last four AO’s, Cardinals’ last four HOs.

Pittsburgh @ Washington– Steelers lost last five road openers (0-4-1 vs spread), all by 7+ points; they lost four of last five season openers (0-4-1 vs spread), but won last five games vs Washington, last four all by 9+ points. This is only third visit here for Steelers since ’68; they split last two. Pitt is 11-20-1 as road favorite last eight years, 6-14 in non-divisional games. Under is 10-5 in their road games last two years. Redskins are 5-4 as home dog under Gruden; since ’08, they’re 12-24-2 vs spread in non-divisional home games. Skins lost last three season openers, three of last four home openers. Under is 7-2 in Steelers’ last nine road openers, 1-4 in Washington’s last five home openers.

Los Angeles @ San Francisco– Rams are favored despite being 1-13 in last 14 road openers, with only win 19-17 (-4) at Tampa Bay couple years ago. LA is 1-3 as road fave in Fisher era. Keenum is 5-2 in last seven starts. Since 2000, Rams are 3-13 vs spread in Week 1. 49ers are 7-3-1 as home underdog since ’09, 1-3 in last four home openers, losing in Week 1 last three years. Niners are 4-2-1 in last seven series games; Rams are 1-6-1 in last eight visits here, with three of last four visits decided by 3 or less points; it is much shorter road trip now than it was in those eight trips. LA outrushed 49ers 330-146 in two meetings LY; wraps will get taken off Gurley here after he hardly played in preseason. Under is 7-3 in Rams’ last 10 road openers, 9-5-1 in 49ers’ last 15 HOs, 18-6 in 49ers home games the last three years.

**Udog** · 09-06-2016, 08:14 AM

Football lines that make you go hmmm: Short road faves are undervalued

Peter Korner, a long-time Las Vegas oddsmakers, is scratching his head when it comes to these NFL Week 1 lines and says books could be open for a beating.

As an oddsmaker, I have to be aware of the home-field advantage, no matter what the sport. The reason? Simple. Teams win more at home than they do on the road. But there are certain situations where I think the bettor has a distinct advantage playing that angle against the percentages: road favorites with a short price.

In the NFL, there seems to be a standard of three points (give or take the situation) for the home field. A six-point differential if we switch the home team. There are four situations in Week 1 of the NFL season where I believe, just because of the “automatic” home-field advantage, the line poses a weak chance of getting two-way action for bookmakers. And that’s where bettors may be aggressive with their betting.

We’re going to look at the opening game of the season, Thursday’s Carolina at Denver, Sunday’s Cincinnati at the NY Jets and both Monday games, Pittsburgh at Washington and Los Angeles at San Francisco.

Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos (+3, 42)

Carolina is a solid 3-point favorite over the Denver Broncos, who lost their top two quarterbacks to retirement and free agency, and that’s how the early money found its way to the Carolina side. So, as an oddsmaker, on a neutral site, Carolina would be a 6-point favorite and as a home team and they’d giving the Broncos nine points.

My feelings for years, has been if a team is a 9-point favorite at home, that difference in talent to be at that level should carry over to wherever they’re playing. Suddenly making a large favorite, a near pick’em game never made sense. My first thoughts would be that Carolina should be at the minimum, a 6-point favorite here.

The value right now is Carolina at the -3 level. This game already smells of a closing line of -4 or higher as everyone has been hit on the revenge-minded Panthers in the past few days and I don’t see tremendous buy back for bookmakers - even when the money on game day forces this off the key number of three.

Bookmakers will be taking three or four times their limits before moving the game off -3 and by that time, they’ll be swamped with one-sided action and then suddenly, this becomes a huge game to kick of Week 1.

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets (+2.5, 41.5)

The same goes with the Cincinnati Bengals. I believe they’re far more talented and incentivized team. Early money has moved this game from a pick’em to the current -2.5 on the road favorite, so early bettors who got the number at its lowest have great value.

The Bengals were 6-2 on the road last year and basically all bettors are asking is for this team is to win Sunday. Not that the Jets are a bad team, but this matchup clearly has a stronger, more aggressive team and the small spread should play no factor in the final score as Cincinnati is the value play in this spot.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Redskins (+3, 50), Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (+2.5, 44)

A double-dose of this comes on Monday where I truly believe both road teams are far superior to their home counterparts. Pittsburgh, sans Le'Veon Bell, is still attracting money and bookmakers are already starting to get overloaded with Steeler cash.

At -3 (minus money) already, this is about to leap to -3.5 on what should be a high-scoring shootout where the passing yards may overshadow Bell’s absence. Also, the Steelers have had plenty of time to adjust to his vacancy so it’s not like a sudden injury in which they are scrambling to replace in a week’s notice.

Yes, Kirk Cousins had an awesome year in 2015, but it’s not so hard to think he may fall back a bit this year. This is another one-way betting mess and I believe bettors will be a little ahead of the bookmakers with this line as it stands now.

The last game is a good example of how the home-field advantage is a non-factor – particularly because of who is playing. The 49ers will be lucky to win four or five games all season and this is not so much a pro-Los Angeles move as much as an anti-San Francisco play.

This game stands at L.A. -2.5 and we’re already starting to see threes dot the landscape. There’s very little hope that bookmakers will see any form of buy back on the Niners. The value is on the small road favorite at this level.

Los Angeles, the new kid on the block this year, should have no problem with this game which should be at -4 to -5 realistically. A far inferior team can’t exploit the home-field advantage if they’re just bad. San Francisco is just that bad. I only envision the public seeing this one way. Bookmakers will have a decision to sweat for sure.

**Udog** · 09-06-2016, 12:16 PM

NFL line watch: Can Patriots top total without Brady under center?

The Patriots will keep the offense simple around backup QB Jimmy Garappolo when they face the Cardinals' stout defense in Week 1.

Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Oakland Raiders at New Orleans Saints (-1)

One-point lines aren’t all that common, but this one hasn’t budged since early-bird oddsmakers weighed in when the schedule was first announced last spring. So, any late movement is unlikely.

This looks like the Raiders’ last in the Bay Area, and they would love to make the playoffs and give their move to Las Vegas a huge tailwind. They did get some bad news when they learned that DE Mario Edwards will be lost for at least six weeks after being injured in last week’s exhibition game. Ouch.

The Saints weren’t that impressive in the preseason (losing all four), but that doesn’t mean much. New Orleans hopes to take advantage of a soft start to the season with the first four against 2016 non-playoff teams (Raiders, Falcons, Giants, Chargers). Starting 1-3 or 0-4 would be devastating.

Spread to wait on

Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos (+3)

Books are loath to move off field goal lines, but the public is betting hard on the Panthers (72 percent on Carolina) and Broncos bettors should check back often to see if a +3.5 window opens up, even for a short amount of time.

Denver will be trying to defend its Super Bowl title without a top-flight quarterback, and that’s always a tricky thing to accomplish. But that defense should keep the Broncos in most games.

No one seriously thinks the Panthers can repeat last year’s 15-1 record, but they should be able to call the shots in the NFC South and return to the playoffs.

Total to watch

New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals (47.5)

This one opened at 51, but fell when Tom Brady’s suspension appeal was rejected. New England will try to survive until Week 5 (when Brady is back) with a possible Top-3 defense and a no-frills offense built around tight ends Rob Gronkowski and (newcomer) Martellus Bennett.

The usual suspects for the Pats’ offense are back – uncoverable Julian Edelman and earth-moving running back LeGarrette Blount. The Pats will keep things simple early on until they have a feel for QB placeholder Jimmy Garoppolo.

The Cardinals no doubt caught a break facing a Brady-less New England squad, and will be doing everything they can to intimidate Garoppolo with a solid defense of their own. It could be hard for both teams to get into the end zone in this one.

**Udog** · 09-06-2016, 01:22 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 1

Thurs – Sept. 8

Carolina at Denver, 8:30 PM ET
Carolina: 12-4 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3
Denver: 1-4 ATS in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points

Sun – Sept. 11

Tampa Bay at Atlanta, 1:00 PM ET
Tampa Bay: 16-6 ATS in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49
Atlanta: 1-8 ATS as a favorite

Minnesota at Tennessee, 1:00 PM ET
Minnesota: 14-3 ATS in all lined games
Tennessee: 7-20 ATS as an underdog

Cleveland at Philadelphia, 1:00 PM ET
Cleveland: 3-1 ATS in the first two weeks of the season
Philadelphia: 3-4 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points

Cincinnati at NY Jets, 1:00 PM ET
Cincinnati: 7-0 ATS in the first month of the season
New York: 6-7 ATS in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points

Oakland at New Orleans, 1:00 PM ET
Oakland: 5-17 ATS in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5
New Orleans: 51-45 ATS in non-conference games

San Diego at Kansas City, 1:00 PM ET
San Diego: 16-28 ATS in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points
Kansas City: 7-5 ATS versus division opponents

Buffalo at Baltimore, 1:00 PM ET
Buffalo: 30-16 ATS in the first two weeks of the season
Baltimore: 0-6 ATS as a favorite

Chicago at Houston, 1:00 PM ET
Chicago: 43-51 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less
Houston: 11-3 ATS as a favorite

Green Bay at Jacksonville, 1:00 PM ET
Green Bay: 16-6 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points
Jacksonville: 1-7 ATS in non-conference games

Miami at Seattle, 4:05 PM ET
Miami: 0-7 ATS in games played on turf
Seattle: 30-15 ATS in home games in non-conference games

NY Giants at Dallas, 4:25 PM ET
New York: 51-38 ATS in the first month of the season
Dallas: 1-8 ATS in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points

Detroit at Indianapolis, 4:25 PM ET
Detroit: 1-3 ATS in the first two weeks of the season
Indianapolis: 5-3 ATS in non-conference games

New England at Arizona, 8:30 PM ET
New England: 2-5 ATS in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points
Arizona: 5-1 ATS in September games

Mon – Sept. 12

Pittsburgh at Washington, 7:10 PM ET
Pittsburgh: 19-25 ATS in the first two weeks of the season
Washington: 5-1 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less

Los Angeles at San Francisco, 10:20 PM ET
Los Angeles: 55-83 ATS in games played on a grass field
San Francisco: 30-10 ATS when playing on Monday night

**Udog** · 09-08-2016, 05:08 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 1

Jimmy Garappolo could be in for a rough welcome in his NFL debut, as he goes up against two of the top DB's in the business in the Cards' Tyrann Mathieu and Patrick Peterson.

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 44.5)

Chargers' awful run D vs. Chiefs’ sensational rush attack

It’s a passing league, they say. The game is now all about quarterbacks and wideouts, or tight ends, or running backs who can catch the ball. Run-first approach? That’s so 2012. But apparently, nobody told the Kansas City Chiefs, who will run out the same philosophy they’ve used to decent success for years - smash the opposing defensive line into tiny pieces with a potent running attack.

Here’s why that should work to perfection this weekend: the Chargers are bad at defending the run. Downright miserable, in fact. Last season, San Diego allowed a whopping 4.8 yards per carry (second-worst in the NFL) and 17 touchdowns on the ground (fourth-most in the league). They were particularly susceptible to the big play, allowing 21 runs of 20 or more yards. And they forced just seven fumbles.

Contrast that with a Chiefs run attack that ranked third in the NFL in yards per carry (4.7), sixth in rushing yards per game (127.8), tied for first in rushing scores (19) and first in “rushing for a first down” percentage (26.6) and the Chargers are going to be in for a long day. That’s especially true if KC pounds the ball up the middle; the Chiefs had just seven negative runs and 19 carries of 10+ yards on center rushes in 2015, ranking among the league leaders in both categories.

Daily fantasy watch: RB Spencer Ware

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (PK, 46)

Giants’ up-tempo offense vs. Cowboys’ depleted defense

Occasionally, you can trust the previous year’s results sufficiently to make a judgment call the following season. And sometimes, you can take last year’s data and toss it in the nearest trash can. Bettors leaning toward the Giants shouldn’t just consider the potential dumpster fire facing the Cowboys and rookie quarterback Dak Prescott - they should also acknowledge that the Dallas defense is a wet paper towel.

“But Monty!” you cry out. “The Cowboys OWNED Eli Manning last year!” And you would be right - but this Dallas defense is far different from the one that made Manning look like an insurance salesman masquerading as a quarterback. No Randy Gregory. No DeMarcus Lawrence. No Rolando McClain. This Cowboys defense was expected to be subpar even with a full complement. Now? It’s going to have major issues keeping the Giants off the scoreboard.

Of particular concern is the Dallas pass rush, which generated just 31 sacks last season - tied for 25th league-wide - and forced only eight INTs, also ranking near the basement. And again, that was with better personnel than the Cowboys will boast in Week 1. Manning will have all the time in the world to set up, and with electrifying receivers like Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard to throw to, it could be a very, very big day for Peyton’s little brother.

Daily fantasy watch: QB Eli Manning

Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks (-10.5, 44)

Dolphins’ bad starting position vs. Seahawks’ LOS dominance

Football is a game of field position; if you consistently start your drives 75-80 yards from the end zone, you’re going to have a difficult time scoring points. The Miami Dolphins know this well - they had one of the worst average drive start positions in the league last season, and will open the 2016 campaign against a Seahawks team that held foes to the worst starting position in the NFL in 2015.

Per Football Outsiders, Miami ranked 27th in average starting point last season (25.54). That was compounded by terrible showings in average plays per drive (5.37, 30th), average time of possession per drive (2:22, 29th) and Drive Success Rate, which measures how often a team achieves a first down or a touchdown on a specific drive (.661, 29th). The result: A pitiful 1.54 points per drive, good for 28th in the NFL.

The Seahawks’ defense ain’t what she used to be, but it’s still one of the most formidable units in the league. Teams facing Seattle had an average starting position of 23.61, a tenth of a yard better than second-place New England. Forcing teams to start that deep means plenty of forgiveness with regard to drive length; even though teams managed 5.81 plays per drive against the Seahawks - good for 15th - their combined DSR of .658 was sixth-lowest. Look for a lot of fruitless drives by the Dolphins this Sunday.

Daily fantasy watch: Seahawks D/ST

New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals (-6, 47.5)

Patriots’ receiving corps vs. Cardinals’ 1-2 DB punch

Bettors have plenty of reasons to expect Arizona to prevail by more than a touchdown, but we’re not here to address all of them. The focus here is on the major disadvantage New England’s primary wide receivers will face against what might be the most daunting defensive back combo in the entire league. Welcome to the NFL, Jimmy Garoppolo! Remember, there’s no shame in starting your career 0-1.

Let’s start with the backfield, since everyone knows Bill Belichick loves to get his receiving backs involved. Arizona employs a blitz-heavy approach that negates the impact of those receiving backs, since they’re forced to pass block more. Teams threw to their RBs just over 16 percent of the time against Arizona last season, second-lowest in the NFL. Sorry, James White, but Sunday probably isn’t your day.

As for the rest of the non-Gronkowski targets, you might as well forget about them. Only six defenses saw more passes against thrown to WR1s than the Cardinals, thanks to stalwart cornerback Patrick Peterson. He grades at an 87.9 on ProFootballFocus, making him one of the top all-round cornerbacks in the game. And let’s not forget Tyrann Mathieu, a Swiss Army knife of a safety whose 94.1 PFF grade is the best in the league at his position. He’ll likely match up with Julian Edelman, which means a really long day for Julian Edelman.

Daily fantasy watch: Cardinals D/ST

**Udog** · 09-08-2016, 05:12 AM

NFL Opening Kickoff betting preview and odds: Panthers at Broncos

The Panthers look to avenge their Super Bowl loss to the Broncos in the NFL season opener.

Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos (+3, 41.5)

The 2016 season kicks off in earnest on Thursday with a rematch of Super Bowl 50, as the visiting Carolina Panthers look to exact revenge against the defending champion Denver Broncos. With future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning embracing retirement, second-year player Trevor Siemian won an impromptu quarterback competition with first-round pick Paxton Lynch and veteran Mark Sanchez to claim the starter's role for Denver in the season opener.

"Trevor is the guy," general manager John Elway said of Siemian, whose lone NFL action last season resulted in a kneel-down versus Pittsburgh. "We have a lot of confidence in Trevor and believe that he can do the job. It's Trevor's job, but he's not going to be looking over his shoulder." Super Bowl MVP Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware headline a top-ranked defense that silenced Cam Newton (45 total TDs in 2015) both on and off the field in February, but the reigning league MVP was quick to speak out against the notion of Thursday's tilt serving as a Super Bowl rematch. "A lot of people want to make it a rematch. It's just our next opponent," said Newton, who was stripped of the ball on two occasions and sacked a Super Bowl high-tying seven times in a 24-10 decision in February.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: The line has seen some major moves since it originally hit the board back in April. Books opened the Broncos as slight 1.5-point home faves, but then projected starter Brock Osweiler signed with Houston in free agency, causing the to reopen the line with the Panthers as 2-point road faves. Since then the Broncos named Trevor Siemian won the starting quarterback job and Carolina has moved to -3.

When it comes to the total, the action hasn't been as exciting. The number opened at 43 and has been slowly bet down a half-point at a time before setting at the current number of 41.5. Check out the complete line history here.

POWER RANKINGS: Panthers (-6) - Broncos (-2) + home field (-3) = Broncos +1

INJURY REPORT:

Panthers - LB A. Klein (probable Thursday, back), DT V. Butler (probable Thursday, hand), S D. Marlowe (questionable Thursday, hamstring), DE K. Ealy (questionable Thursday, concussion).

Broncos - LB D. Ware (probable Thursday, back), C J. Ferentz (questionable Thursday, knee), TE J. Heuerman (questionable Thursday, hamstring), WR C. Latimer (questionable Thursday, knee), WR B. Fowler (out Thursday, elbow).

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a beautiful night in Denver to kickoff the 2016 NFL season. The forecast calls for clear skies in the high 70's to start the game. There will be a slight five-to-six mile per hour wind gusting from wast to west across the field.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We obviously have a lot of liability on the Panthers. The wiseguys hit Carolina early and often when this spread opened up back in April. On the money handle 80 percent of the action is on Carolina, and that started when they were a 2.5-point dog. The ticket count is even greater with nearly 90 percent on the visitor. The revenge factor is large and the public loves to play it. The under has been adjusted down two points from the opener and we have 65 percent of the handle on the under. We'll be praying for a high-scoring, easy Broncos victory."

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "A rare situation where the defending Super Bowl champion enters the season with something to prove as an underdog. They still have a dominating defense that ranked 1st in the league in yards allowed (283) and passing yards allowed (200) per game last year. They also had the third best rush defense (83 yards per game)."

"However, there is no experience at quarterback. Denver cut veteran QB Mark Sanchez which means they enter the season with two quarterbacks, Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch, who have never started a regular season game. Siemian was mediocre in his three preseason games last month with a 70.4 QB rating and a 1/2 touchdown/interception ratio."

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (2015: 15-1, 11-5 ATS, 10-5-1 O/U): Kelvin Benjamin was a spectator throughout the 2015 season after tearing his ACL, but the 6-foot-5 wide receiver will be on the field for the opener - albeit for approximately 35 snaps, according to the Charlotte Observer. "I think that's the best guess," coach Ron Rivera told the newspaper of Benjamin, who has been working on his conditioning. "If it is more, great. I'd be really excited about it. He's done some really good things and you see him getting back into stride and that's probably the best thing." Tight end Greg Olsen, veteran Ted Ginn (team-high 10 touchdowns) and promising second-year wideout Devin Funchess return in the passing game, while rugged Jonathan Stewart (club-best 989 rushing) will look to aid in the ground attack.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2015: 12-4, 8-8 ATS, 6-9-1 O/U): Demaryius Thomas led the Broncos in receptions (105) and receiving yards (1.304) and tied Emmanuel Sanders in receiving touchdowns (six) last season, but was limited to just one catch for eight yards in the Super Bowl. Thomas will look for a better individual performance versus Carolina as he will likely be shadowed by rookie cornerbacks as opposed to Pro Bowler Josh Norman, who signed a five-year, $75 million deal with Washington in the offseason. Denver would love to get more out of its running game this season as C.J. Anderson (720 yards) struggled throughout the early stages before capping his tumultuous campaign with 90 yards and a touchdown in Super Bowl 50.

TRENDS:

* Super Bowl winners are 10-5-1 ATS in their last 16 home openers.
* Super Bowl losers are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home openers.
* Under is 4-0 in the Panthers' last four season openers.
* Over is 5-1 in the Broncos' last six season openers.

CONSENSUS: The public is strongly backing the favorite in this Super Bowl rematch, with a big 71 percent of wagers on the Panthers. As for the total, 64 percent of wagers are backing the Under.

**Udog** · 09-09-2016, 07:15 AM

NFL

Friday, September 9

With Panthers' loss, Super Bowl losers are 6-11 SU and 3-14 ATS in Week 1 of the following season.

Broncos improve to 16-1 SU and 11-4-2 ATS in home opener since 2000.

**Udog** · 09-09-2016, 07:40 AM

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

Submitted for your perusal, NFL trends for Week 1………..

— Ravens are 0-10-2 in last 12 games as a favorite.

— Dallas covered one of last eight home openers.

— Chargers are 3-10 in last 13 divisional games.

— Indianapolis covered one of last eight season openers.

— Falcons are 2-8 in last ten games as a home favorite.

— Green Bay is 9-4 in last 13 games as a road favorite.

**Udog** · 09-12-2016, 07:28 AM

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……..

Random thoughts on all of Sunday’s NFL games………

Buccaneers 31, Falcons 24– Three of Bucs’ four TDs came on plays of 23+ yards; former Atlanta HC Smith gets some revenge here- he is Tampa Bay’s new DC. Before the 2015 Draft, there was a lot of debate as to whether Winston/Mariota was better choice as the #1 pick. Not much debate now; Winston is very good.

Vikings 25, Titans 16– Minnesota won despite not scoring TD on offense; LY, that happened only two times in whole NFL, with Denver getting both wins. Titans led this game 10-0 at half; Vikings looked awful on offense, but then the Minnesota defense scored two TDs in second half to win the game. Three trips to red zone, only six points for Minnesota. Hard to believe Bradford won’t be the starting QB soon.

Eagles 29, Browns 10– Philly had 17-yard edge in average starting field position; Wentz was 22-37/270 passing as he won his first NFL start. Browns have 17 rookies on their squad and it showed. RGIII hurt his left arm late in game (check status). Cleveland had four plays of 20+ yards; all four came on 1st down plays (rest of NFL, 38 of 83 plays of 20+ yards came on first down plays).

Bengals 23, Jets 22– Jets had seven sacks, outrushed Cincy 152-57, but Dalton led Bengals 55 yards on nine plays on GW drive, with Nugent making 47-yard FG with 0:54 left for the win. Teams got to red zone a combined eight times, with only three TDs- they combined to go 7-23 on third down. This was a fun game to watch; Dalton threw for 366 yards for Bengals.

Game of the Day: Raiders 35, Saints 34– Old-style AFL game here, with total yardage 507-486. Jack Del Rio went for 2 points and the win with 0:47 here and got it- on their last three drives, Oakland ran 17 plays for 210 yards and three TDs. Brees threw for 419 yards including a 98-yard TD pass. Raiders survived 14 penalties for 141 yards.

Comeback of the Day: Chiefs 33, Chargers 27 OT– San Diego led this game 24-3 with 5:00 left in 3rd quarter; horrific loss. On their last six drives, Chiefs scored four TDs, kicked a FG, gaining 317 yards on 42 plays with one turnover. Alex Smith is now 69-52-1 as an NFL starter.

San Diego started three drives in KC territory, but scored only one TD, one FG on those drives and that wound up costing them.

Ravens 13, Bills 7– Bills ran only 48 plays for 160 yards. My one thought here is: thank God Rex Ryan doesn’t coach the Rams. Buffalo had a 9-yard edge in field position, which is pretty strong, but still lost.

NFL-wide this week, 16 of 67 TDs this week (so far) came on scoring plays on 20+ yards; 51 of those 67 TDs came on drives of 70+ yards. No TDs on defense/special teams (yet).

Texans 23, Bears 14– Houston converted 12 of 20 third down plays, ran 18 more plays than Chicago, outscoring Bears 13-0 in second half. On four drives that started 75+ yards from goal line, Texans did not score; on their other seven drives with better field position, they scored three TDs, kicked two FGs. Houston sacked Jay Cutler five times.

Packers 27, Jaguars 23– Green Bay led 21-17 at half, won despite scoring only six points in second half on a sweltering day in North Florida. Jacksonville was pretty impressive in defeat; they outgained Pack 348-294, averaged 7.1 yards/pass, but ran for only 48 yards.

Seahawks 12, Dolphins 10– After not scoring a TD the whole game, Russell Wilson led Seattle on a 14-play, 75-yard drive to win the game in last minute. Tough loss for Miami; they were +2 in turnovers and had 10-yard edge in field position, but were outgained 352-222 and had only 64 rushing yards. Dolphins had a 26-yard FG blocked and lost ball on downs in red zone early in game.

Giants 20, Cowboys 19– First time Giants beat Cowboys in eight Week 1 meetings. Not many teams go 10-17 on third down and score only one TD; only Dallas TD drive was 35 yards. Giants had three TDs, no FG tries; Dallas had one TD, four FG tries.

Lions 39, Colts 35– Watching last 2:00 of this game, with Luck/Stafford driving their teams in 2:00 drill for go-ahead scores; star QBs cannot be overpaid– really difficult to have good team without one. Detroit led this game 21-3, almost let it slip away.

Patriots 23, Cardinals 21– Garoppolo passed his first of four tests as Brady’s stand-in; Pats were 10-16 on 3rd down, averaged 7.3 yds/pass attempt. Arizona missed a 46-yard FG with 0:04 left that would’ve won it. Weird week; teams that were -2 or worse in turnovers are 3-1, very unusual.

Favorites are 4-10 vs spread so far this week, home teams 6-8; over is 6-8.

**Udog** · 09-12-2016, 08:03 AM

NFL

Monday, September 12

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Monday Night Football betting preview and odds: Steelers at Redskins, Rams at 49ers
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Los Angeles has an emerging superstar in second-year running back Todd Gurley, who introduced himself to the NFL by rushing for at least 125 yards in each of his first four starts.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Redskins (+2.5, 50)

Following their surprise run to the NFC East title in 2015, expectations are heightened for the Washington Redskins as they prepare to host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday night in the season opener for both teams. Washington is looking to build upon its closing run a year ago, when it finished the regular season with four consecutive victories.

"We have a great opportunity to go be effective and play well and that's exciting and something for our fans to be excited about," Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins said. "But, we've got to go out and prove it." Washington made a bold move to bolster its defense by signing Pro Bowl cornerback Josh Norman, setting up a marquee matchup with Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown. Pittsburgh will be without a pair of key weapons as running back Le'Veon Bell is serving a three-game suspension and wide receiver Martavis Bryant is out for the year for violations of the league's substance abuse policy. The offense should still be potent behind the leadership of two-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, but there are concerns over a defense that ranked 30th against the pass last season.

TV: 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Pittsburgh Steelers opened as three-point favorites back in April for this Monday night matchup with Washington. The point spread has stayed relatively steady throughout the summer with only a slight bump up to 3.5 back in mid-August. During the week leading up to the game, some money came back on Washington and the line was dropped down to 2.5.

The total opened at 51 in April but has come down slightly over the last few months and currently sits at 50. Check out the complete line history here.

POWER RANKINGS: Pittsburgh (-3) - Washington (-1) + home field (-3) = Washington -1

KEY INJURIES:

Pittsburgh - DE C. Heyward (Probable Monday, ankle), WR M. Wheaton (Out Monday, shoulder), RB L. Bell (Out Monday, suspension), CB S. Golson (Out Monday, foot), WR M. Bryant (Out Monday, suspension) QB B. Gradkowski (Out Monday, hamstring).

Washington - WR J. Doctson (Probable Monday, achilles), RB M. Jones (Probable Monday, shoulder), RB C. Thompson (Questionable Monday, shoulder), LB R. Kerrigan (Questionable Monday, groin), LB J. Galette (Out For Season, achilles).

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for Monday evening in D.C. is calling for clear skies and perfect September football conditions. Temperatures will be in the upper-70's with humidity at around 50 percent.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (2015: 10-6 SU, 9-6-1 ATS, 6-10 O/U): Once renowned for its Steel Curtain defense, Pittsburgh has evolved into an offensive juggernaut, with Roethlisberger leading the league with an average of 328.2 yards per game last season and Brown hauling in a mind-boggling 375 receptions and 31 touchdown catches in the past three years. "It starts and it ends with him," Norman said of Brown. "That's going to be a tall task to take on." DeAngelo Williams was more than a capable replacement last season while subbing for a suspended and injured Bell, rushing for 11 TDs and 907 yards. Defensive ends Stephon Tuitt and Cam Heyward and linebacker Ryan Shazier are top talents but the secondary remains suspect after yielding an average of 271.9 yards in 2015.

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (2015: 9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U): One knock against Washington last season, aside from being the only team to finish above .500 in its division, was not beating one opponent with a winning record. Nonetheless, Cousins thrived in his first full season as the starter, becoming the first quarterback in franchise history to throw for at least 4,000 yards (4,166) and 25 touchdowns (29), and has one of the league's top tight ends in Jordan Reed, who enjoyed a breakout season with 87 receptions and 11 scores. There are questions about a ground game headed by Matt Jones, who returned to practice Wednesday after missing much of the preseason with a shoulder injury, and a defense that ranked 28th last year despite 9.5 sacks from linebacker Ryan Kerrigan.

TRENDS:

* Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
* Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Under is 4-0 in Steelers last 4 road games.
* Over is 5-0 in Redskins last 5 games overall.
* Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is supporting the road favorite Steelers at a rate of 66 percent and the Under is picking up slightly more totals wagers with 52 percent.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (+2.5, 42.5)

Chip Kelly gets a second chance to find out if his revved-up offense can translate to the NFL when he guides the San Francisco 49ers into their season opener against the visiting Los Angeles Rams on Monday night. Kelly made a splashy entrance into the league with a pair of 10-win campaigns in Philadelphia but was released with one game left last season amid growing player discontent.

“I’m sure Chip’s heard the rumors,” 49ers veteran linebacker NaVorro Bowman told reporters, “and I’m sure he’s made a few changes so he doesn’t have the same comments at the end of this year.” Ironically, one of Kelly's first big decisions was choosing a starting quarterback, but backup Colin Kaepernick has garnered much of the headlines following his decision not to stand for the national anthem, setting off a wave of discourse nationally. The Rams hardly have had a quiet offseason of their own, relocating to Los Angeles after a 21-year run in St. Louis. The franchise then swung for the fences by sending a boatload of draft picks to Tennessee for the No. 1 pick overall -- used to select Jared Goff, who begins the season as the third-string quarterback.

TV: 10:20 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Los Angeles Rams opened Week 1 betting back in April as 2.5-point road favorites for their matchup against the 49ers. That 2.5 points has survived free agency, the draft, the preseason, and some surprising quarterback announcements and is currently holding steady.

The total hit the betting board at 46.5 and was gradually bet down all summer to it's current number of 42. Check out the complete line history here.

POWER RANKINGS: Los Angeles (+3) - San Francisco (+5.5) + home field (-3) = San Francisco -0.5

KEY INJURIES:

Rams - CB E. Gaines (Questionable Monday, quadricep), LB M. Barron (Questionable Monday, undisclosed), CB T. Johnson (Questionable Monday, concussion), WR P. Cooper (Out Monday, shoulder).

49ers - DL G. Dorsey (Probable Monday, knee), RB C. Hyde (Probable Monday, concussion), DL A. Armstead (Questionable Monday, shoulder), RB S. Draughn (Questionable Monday, back), LB N. Bellore (Out Monday, knee), WR E. Rogers (Out For Season, knee).

WEATHER REPORT: Much like the early game Monday night, perfect football conditions are being forecast in the Bay Area with clear skies and temperatures in the low 70's at kickoff. Wind will not be a factor and humidity levels will be at around 75 percent.

ABOUT THE RAMS (2015: 7-9 SU, 7-8-1 ATS, 4-12 O/U): Los Angeles has an emerging superstar in second-year running back Todd Gurley, who introduced himself to the NFL by rushing for at least 125 yards in each of his first four starts. A non-existent passing game allowed defenses to focus on Gurley as his rookie season progressed, leading to coach Jeff Fisher's decision to promote Case Keenum, who won three of his last four starts. There's still a dearth of talent at wide receiver for Los Angeles, which likes to line up former first-round pick Tavon Austin in the backfield with Gurley rather than stretch defenses with the deep ball. Tackle Aaron Donald is an unstoppable force on defense for the Rams, who must replace defensive end Chris Long and linebacker James Laurinaitis.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (2015: 5-11 SU, 7-9 ATS, 7-9 O/U): Blaine Gabbert started to resurrect his career after he was elevated to starter midway through last season and won the quarterback job in the preseason while Kaepernick was slow to recover from multiple surgeries. "He's a good fit for what we want to get accomplished, and I have a lot of confidence in what he can do for us offensively," Kelly said of Gabbert, who threw for 354 yards in a 19-16 win over the Rams to finish 3-5 last season. Like the Rams, San Francisco will have to cobble together a group of wide receivers, with Torrey Smith the de facto No. 1 after grabbing only 33 receptions in his first season with the 49ers. San Francisco held opponents to 20 points or fewer in seven of eight home games.

TRENDS:

* Rams are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games in Week 1.
* 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 1.
* Under is 6-1 in Rams last 7 games overall.
* Under is 8-2 in 49ers last 10 vs. NFC West.
* Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in San Francisco.

CONSENSUS: The public is supporting the road favorite Rams at a rate of 65 percent and the Under is picking up the majority of the totals wagers with 68 percent.

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Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 1 (Thursday, September 8 - Monday, September 12)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 1 (Thursday, September 8 - Monday, September 12)

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