The Bum's 2016 College Football Best Bets,Trends,Stat, News !!

[StarDust Bum]

FCS playoffs projection
November 15, 2016

(STATS) - It will be easy to pay attention to North Carolina A&T and North Carolina Central on Saturday when the two nationally ranked teams meet for the MEAC championship.

Question is, will there be reason to pay attention on Sunday?

Starting last season, the MEAC relinquished its automatic bid to the FCS playoffs to send its champion to the Celebration Bowl. Everybody else in the conference remains eligible for an at-large bid, although in most seasons - like last year - none will get one.

While a representative from the MEAC is no longer on the NCAA Division I FCS selection committee to champion for the teams, N.C. A&T (9-1) and N.C. Central (8-2) hope the losing team on Saturday will have done enough to earn an at-large bid.

An N.C. A&T team with a 9-2 record and an FBS win (Kent State) would have a stronger chance for a bid than N.C. Central at 8-3.

It's a bit awkward for the committee, of course, but these two teams will get a long look. Their three combined losses entering Saturday are to FBS teams. Plus, the MEAC has sent an at-large team to the playoffs before.

The playoff bubble will be filled with playoff contenders for the last couple bids, so they have to get the job done Saturday to be in the conversation Sunday morning. The 24-team pairings will be announced at 11 a.m. ET on ESPNU.

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PROJECTED BIDS BY CONFERENCE=

Prior to Nov. 17-19 games

*- automatic qualifier

Big Sky (3): Cal Poly (6-4), *Eastern Washington (9-1), North Dakota (9-2)

Big South (2): Charleston Southern (6-3), *Liberty (6-4)

CAA (4): *James Madison (9-1), Maine (6-4), Richmond (8-2), Villanova (7-3)

MEAC (1): North Carolina A&T (9-1)/North Carolina Central (8-2) loser

Missouri Valley (4): North Dakota State (9-1), *South Dakota State (7-3), Western Illinois (6-4), Youngstown State (7-3)

NEC (1): *Saint Francis (7-3)

OVC (1): *Jacksonville State (9-1)

Patriot (1): *Lehigh (8-2)

Pioneer (1): *San Diego (8-1)

Southern (4): Chattanooga (8-2), Samford (7-3), *The Citadel (10-0), Wofford (7-3)

Southland (2): *Sam Houston State (10-0), Central Arkansas (9-1)

Moved In: Maine (6-4), Wofford (7-3)

Dropped Out: Montana (6-4), New Hampshire (6-4)

On the Bubble: Fordham (7-3), Illinois State (6-5), Montana (6-4), New Hampshire (6-4), Weber State (6-4)

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STATS PROJECTED PAIRINGS=

Top 8 seeds have first-round byes

Saint Francis-Lehigh winner at No. 1 seed North Dakota State

Maine-Chattanooga winner at No. 8 seed North Dakota

Western Illinois-Cal Poly winner at No. 5 seed Sam Houston State

Samford-Liberty winner at No. 4 seed James Madison

Villanova-Youngstown State winner at No. 7 seed Central Arkansas

San Diego-South Dakota State winner at No. 2 seed Eastern Washington

North Carolina A&T/North Carolina Central-Richmond winner at No. 3 seed Jacksonville State

Charleston Southern-Wofford winner at No. 6 seed The Citadel

[StarDust Bum]

Badgers rolling with Chryst
November 14, 2016


2016 Coach of the Year Candidates

1) Paul Chryst (Wisconsin) - Back in August, I said there was a chance Wisconsin could start 2-5. I had the Badgers finishing 7-5, but I felt like they would have trouble getting wins vs. LSU (at Lambeau in Green Bay), at Michigan State, at Michigan, vs. Ohio State and at Iowa. As it turned out, Chryst’s team beat LSU, routed the Spartans 30-6 in East Lansing, lost by a 14-7 count at Michigan, lost in overtime to Ohio State in a game it led most of the way and then won at Iowa. Instead of being 2-5, UW was 5-2 with narrow defeats against a pair of top-five teams. Since the OT loss to the Buckeyes, the Badgers have won four in a row, handing Nebraska its first loss and winning by double digits at Northwestern. After the all the upsets this past weekend, Wisconsin is 8-2 both straight up and against the spread with a pair of double-digit ‘chalk’ spots ahead to close the regular season. In other words, the Badgers are going to the College Football Playoffs if they win their next three (the third would be a win over the Michigan-Ohio State winner or Penn State at the Big Ten Championship Game).

2) Mike MacIntyre (Colorado) - Since joining the Pac-12 in 2011, Colorado had won five league games coming into the 2016 campaign, MacIntyre’s fourth at CU since coming to Boulder from San Jose State. MacIntyre has led the Buffaloes to six Pac-12 wins this year, including four by double-digit margins. CU’s only defeats came at Michigan (when its starting QB went down with an injury while the team held the lead at The Big House) and at Southern Cal (21-17). The Buffs, who are 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS, share the nation’s best ATS record with Temple. They finish the year with home games vs. Washington State and Utah and will go to the Pac-12 Championship game with two more victories.

3) Nick Saban (Alabama) - Sure, he has the best talent but that’s a credit to his recruiting. And the Crimson Tide has won nine of its 10 games by double-digit margins. Hell, they’re 8-2 ATS and have covered six in a row despite being favored by at least 11 in nine games.

4) Jim Harbaugh (Michigan) - Even with the loss at Iowa, Michigan will be in the CFP if it wins out. Remember, Harbaugh has won 19 of 23 games since taking over a program that went 12-13 combined in the two seasons prior to his arrival.

5) Bobby Petrino (Louisville) - Petrino is orchestrating the best offense in the nation. He has U of L in the mix for a CFP berth in just his third season at the helm. Like I’ve always said, the dude is a terrible human being but a helluva football coach.

6) P.J. Fleck (Western Michigan) - Fleck has the Broncos unbeaten and ESPN’s GameDay is heading to Kalamazoo this weekend. He’s in line to field offers galore from Power Five programs next month.

7) Neal Brown (Troy) - Troy’s program is no stranger to success. The Trojans enjoyed wins galore and produced plenty of NFL players in a two-decade stretch starting in 1991 with Larry Blakeney. However, Blakeney’s last four years were a struggle with three losing years, including a pair of 3-9 campaigns. But in just his second season, Brown has the Trojans with an 8-1 record and a No. 25 spot in this week’s AP Rankings. Troy’s lone loss? It came up on the wrong end of a 30-24 decision at Clemson.

8) Ken Nuimatalolo (Navy) - Navy lost its all-time leading rusher in Keenan Reynolds and returned just one starter on offense. Then the Midshipmen lost its new starting QB Tago Smith to a season-ending injury in early September. They had to play at Air Force and vs. Notre Dame in Jacksonville in non-conference play. So all Niumatalolo’s team has done is produce a 7-2 SU record and a 5-3-1 ATS mark. The Middies are 5-1 in AAC play and they’ll go to the AAC Championship Game with wins at East Carolina and at SMU.

9) Chris Petersen (Washington) - Petersen has UW in the CFP mix despite taking its first loss of the year at home to red-hot USC in Week 11. The Huskies are legit contenders and will remain so as long as Petersen stays in Seattle.

10) Urban Meyer (Ohio State) - This isn’t Meyer’s best team by any means, but it’ll be in the CFP again if its wins out. The Buckeyes brought back just six total starters (three on offense, three on defense) from last year’s 12-1 squad.

11) Mike Leach (Washington State)

12) Dana Hologorsen (West Virginia)

13) Kyle Whittingham (Utah)

14) James Franklin (Penn State)

15) Will Muschamp (South Carolina)

HONORABLE MENTION: Mike Riley (Nebraska), Clay Helton (USC), Dabo Swinney (Clemson), Mike Gundy (Oklahoma State), Justin Fuente (Va. Tech), Matt Rhule (Temple) and Willie Taggart (USF).

[StarDust Bum]

AP HEISMAN WATCH: Westbrook catching up to contenders
November 15, 2016

Wide receivers have rarely won the Heisman Trophy.

Desmond Howard of Michigan was the last in 1991. Tim Brown of Notre Dame did it in 1987. And that is the complete list.

A receiver will not be winning the Heisman Trophy this season either. Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson has all but wrapped up the award, but Oklahoma's Dede Westbrook is starting to get some attention.

Westbrook began the season slowly, with 17 catches for 154 yards in the first three games. Since then he has been all but unstoppable. He had six straight 100-yard games before last week against Baylor when he had four catches for 88 yards and two touchdowns in a rout of the Bears.

Alabama's Amari Cooper was the last receiver to be a Heisman finalist back in 2014. He finished third in the voting. The last receiver to do better than that was Pitt's Larry Fitzgerald, who finished second to Oklahoma's Jason White in 2003.

The AP's Heisman panel is still locked in on Lamar Jackson at the top of the charts, but more players are getting attention down-ballot:

Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville (21 points)

Numbers to know: Jackson is sixth in the nation in rushing (133.4 yards per game), leads in touchdowns with 19 and is averaging 7.25 yards per carry. If he never threw a pass, he would be a Heisman contender.

Next: at Houston, Thursday night. The Cougars have the best defense in the American Athletic Conference at 4.64 yards allowed per play.

Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson (10 points)

Numbers to know: Watson ran for 1,105 yards last season. This season he's at 378.

Next: at Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons gave Jackson and the Cardinals trouble for three quarters last week.

Donnel Pumphrey, RB, San Diego State (3 points)

Numbers to know: Pumphrey is 221 yards away from becoming the 27th player in FBS history to run for 2,000 yards in a season. He is also No. 4 on the career rushing list with 6,051 yards.

Next: at Wyoming. The Cowboys are sixth in the Mountain West in run defense at 4.43 yards per carry allowed.

Jonathan Allen, DL, Alabama (2 points)

Numbers to know: Allen is second on the team with 7.5 sacks and leads with 13 quarterback hurries.

Next: Chattanooga. Allen probably won't play much this week.

D'Onta Foreman, RB, Texas (2 points)

Numbers to know: Foreman tied a Texas record with his 11th straight 100-yard rushing game last week, matching 1977 Heisman winner Earl Campbell.

Next: at Kansas. The Jayhawks allow 5.27 yards per carry, second-worst in the Big 12.

Dede Westbrook, WR, Oklahoma (2 points)

Numbers to know: Westbrook is tied for second in the country in yards receiving per game at 125.4 and in touchdown catches with 14.

Next: at No. 10 West Virginia. The Mountaineers have allowed the fewest yards per pass attempt (6.5) in the Big 12.

Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma (1 point)

Numbers to know: Mayfield is leading the nation in passer efficiency rating (195.7) and yards per pass (10.9).

Next: at No. 10 West Virginia. The Mountaineers are eighth in the Big 12 in sacks with 17.

Jake Browning, QB, Washington (1 point)

Numbers to know: Browning is coming off by far his worst game of the season at USC. He completed 47 percent of his passes and was picked off multiple times in a game for the first time.

Next: Arizona State. The Sun Devils are last in the Pac-12 in pretty much every pass defense statistical category.

[StarDust Bum]

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 15

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

OHIO at CMU 07:00 PM

OHIO -1.0 *****

KENT at BGSU 07:00 PM

BGSU +2.5 *****

[StarDust Bum]

Central Michigan denies Ohio MAC East
November 15, 2016

MOUNT PLEASANT, Mich. (AP) Cooper Rush threw two touchdown passes to Tyler Conklin and Sean Bunting intercepted a pass in the end zone with 34 seconds left as Central Michigan beat Ohio 27-20 on Tuesday night to become bowl eligible.

Conklin made a one-handed grab from 8 yards out for the go-ahead touchdown with 5:51 remaining and Ohio had a fumble and an interception on its final two possessions.

Ohio trailed 17-0 after Conklin's first touchdown, but the Bobcats scored on three straight possessions to open the second half to tie it at 20-all. Papi White caught a 16-yard touchdown pass, Louie Zervos kicked a 34-yard field goal and Dorian Brown scored on a 1-yard run - one play after Quinton Maxwell had a 53-yard connection with Sebastian Smith.

Corey Willis had eight catches for 109 yards for Central Michigan (6-5, 3-4 Mid-American). Conklin finished with two grabs for 21 yards.

Maxwell was just 16 of 36 for 208 yards with one touchdown and one interception for Ohio (7-4, 5-2). Dorian Brown carried it 12 times for 91 yards and one touchdown.

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Bowling Green runs for 420 yards in 42-7 win over Kent St.
November 15, 2016

BOWLING GREEN, Ohio (AP) Donovan Wilson, Josh Cleveland and Fred Coppet each had least 100 yards rushing and combined for four touchdowns to help Bowling Green run past Kent State for a 42-7 win on Tuesday night.

It was the first time since 1978 that Bowling Green had three 100-yard rushers in the same game.

Wilson, who came in with 250 yards rushing this season, finished with a career-high 146 yards and two touchdowns. Cleveland added 131 yards and Coppet ran for 105.

BGSU (3-8, 2-5 Mid-American) had the ball for 40 minutes, 30 seconds - including two 16-play touchdown drives that helped the Falcons open a 21-0 lead.

Nick Holley hit Ernest Calhoun for a 56-yard touchdown to pull Kent State (3-8, 2-5) within 14 late in the first half, but Cleveland's 85-yard touchdown run - Bowling Green's longest play this season - provided the first of 21-straight point to close the game.

The Falcons finished with 597 total yards - including 420 yards rushing, their most since 1998. Kent State ran 22 times for nine yards.

[StarDust Bum]

Ohio St up; Michigan, Clemson still top 4
November 15, 2016

Ohio State moved into second in the College Football Playoff rankings behind Alabama, with Michigan and Clemson still in the top four after losing for the first time this season.

Louisville was fifth and Washington dropped from fourth to sixth after its first loss.

''The margin of separation between teams two and six was very small,'' selection committee chairman Kirby Hocutt, who is also the athletic director at Texas Tech, said.

Clemson, Michigan and Washington - the Nos. 2, 3 and 4 teams in last week's rankings - all lost to unranked teams on Saturday. The Wolverines, who have three victories against teams in the selection committee's top 10, did not move after losing to Iowa. The Tigers ended up dropping two spots to No. 4 after losing to Pittsburgh.

Wisconsin was seventh and Penn State eighth, giving the Big Ten four teams in the top 10. Oklahoma was the highest rated Big 12 team at nine and Colorado was 10th.

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THE OHIO STATE PROBLEM

Michigan's loss to Iowa created a potential predicament for the selection committee with the Buckeyes. Because Ohio State lost at eighth-ranked Penn State, the Nittany Lions would win a tiebreaker for the Big Ten East if both finish 8-1 in the conference, shutting out the Buckeyes from the conference championship game.

In two years of the playoff, all the participants have been conference champions and the committee is instructed to give some preference to league champs and head-to-head results when teams are similar.

There is little question that Ohio State would have the best overall resume in the Big Ten, and maybe one of the best resume's in the country, if it wins out. But would not winning the conference keep the Buckeyes out the way it did last season?

''We do not look forward and anticipate what may happen in the future,'' Hocutt said.

A Penn State loss in the next couple of weeks would clear things up, but the Nittany Lions play Rutgers on Saturday and finish at home against Michigan State. They will be heavy favorites in both games.

A possible solution for the Buckeyes and the selection committee: If Oklahoma wins the Big 12 and Wisconsin wins the Big Ten, the Buckeyes would have a victory over both. Problem solved.

If Penn State wins the Big Ten and the other Power Five conferences have champions with one-loss or less (i.e. Clemson in the ACC, Washington in the Pac-12, West Virginia in the Big 12 and Alabama in the SEC) we'll see just how much that conference championship is worth.

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THE LOUISVILLE PROBLEM

The Cardinals' hurdle could be even more difficult to clear than the Buckeyes'. Without a Clemson loss at Wake Forest on Saturday, Louisville can't get to the ACC championship game because of its loss to the Tigers in early October.

Unlike the Buckeyes, who could have wins over Oklahoma, Wisconsin and Michigan, Louisville will put forth a resume that would include one marquee victory: a demolition of Florida State in September that might have been the most impressive performance of any team this season.

And having the likely Heisman Trophy winner in quarterback Lamar Jackson doesn't provide Louisville any bonus points from the committee.

We don't talk about individual players in that regard,'' Hocutt said.

A possible path the Cardinals: The Pac-12 picks itself apart and produces a champion with at least two losses and the Big 12 does the same. Even then Louisville might have to make a case against a Wisconsin team with a Big Ten championship and a victory against 16th-ranked LSU.

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GROUP OF FIVE

No. 20 Boise State moved ahead of No. 21 Western Michigan in the rankings for the first time.

It is becoming fairly apparent that if there are no upsets in the next couple of weeks in the Mountain West, a championship game between two 11-1 teams, Boise State and San Diego State, could produce the team that earns the Cotton Bowl bid that will go to the best champion out of the Group of Five no matter what Western Michigan does.

If the Broncos stay unbeaten they would have a better chance to edge past the Aztecs, but they are not going to bump the Broncos from Boise.

Hocutt pointed out that Western Michigan has only one victory against an FBS team with a winning record while Boise State has a victory against No. 22 Washington State.

[StarDust Bum]

Boilermakers looking to stun Wisconsin
November 15, 2016

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. (AP) With its losing skid at five and any hope for a bowl game eliminated, Purdue is seeking motivation with No. 6 Wisconsin coming to visit on Saturday and then a season-ending Nov. 26 date at rival Indiana.

Interim head coach Gerad Parker has seen his team (3-7, 1-6 Big Ten) play well during the first half against Nebraska, Penn State, Minnesota and Northwestern, only to be outscored 114-17 the rest of the way against those teams.

With lots of uncertainty about the program's future, primarily who will be coaching Purdue in 2017, it would be easy for some players and coaches to go through the motions these final two weeks.

Parker believes there's plenty of reason to be motivated, starting with the Badgers (8-2, 5-2).

''This week is fully and completely about our seniors,'' Parker said Tuesday. ''The staff has continued to work our tails off. The players have as well, and this week is about our seniors playing their last game in Ross-Ade Stadium. It's a chance for those seniors to play an unbelievable football team in Wisconsin. Those guys want to go out the right way.''

Purdue has won only one Big Ten home game - Nebraska in 2015 - during the seniors' careers and is 3-28 overall in conference play since 2013.

''It's been hard,'' Parker said, ''Sadly, the reason we are in this position is because of our past. Everything is contagious. Winning is contagious and losing is contagious. I've wanted to approach this week by week.''

Senior wide receiver Bilal Marshall said the opportunity to stun a top 10 team in his final home game would wipe away some of the frustrations of a four-year career in which Purdue has gone 9-37.

''We have to stick together and not be selfish,'' Marshall said. ''For us seniors, it's our last two weeks, and our last week in Ross-Ade against a big opponent and obviously, we haven't seen the Old Oaken Bucket in forever. For our younger guys, we want to finish strong because no one knows what's going to happen after these last two weeks.''

Sophomore quarterback David Blough leads the Big Ten in passing yards per game at 292.1, but he has been intercepted 16 times, one of the reasons the Boilermakers are tied for 126th among the 128 FBS programs in turnover margin at minus-16. Blough's three interceptions against Northwestern this past Saturday set up 17 Wildcats points in their 45-17 victory.

''We have been in position to succeed and have been coached well, but we haven't executed, especially on my behalf,'' Blough said.

NOTES: Purdue ranks last in Big Ten scoring defense (38.4), last in total defense (466.9 yards), 13th in rushing defense (248.8 yards) and 11th in pass defense (218.1 yards) ... Parker indicated Tuesday that DT Lorenzo Neal, OT Mike Mendez and RB Richie Worship likely will miss the Wisconsin game because of injuries ... Purdue has not beaten Wisconsin in Ross-Ade Stadium since 1997 ... Purdue has not won a game in November since beating Indiana in 2012.

[StarDust Bum]

Auburn RB Pettway out for Saturday
November 15, 2016

AUBURN, Ala. (AP) Auburn's injury problems continue to deplete an offense that produced only one touchdown against Georgia, with the biggest playmaker still sidelined and quarterback Sean White questionable.

Coach Gus Malzahn said Tuesday that the Southeastern Conference's leading rusher Kamryn Pettway will miss his second straight game Saturday for the 18th-ranked Tigers against FCS opponent Alabama A&M with a left leg injury. He said he's hoping Pettway will be able to return for the regular season finale against No. 1 Alabama.

Malzahn is taking a wait-and-see approach before determining White's status against Alabama A&M.

White played in the 13-7 loss to Georgia and the second half against Vanderbilt despite an injury to his right, throwing shoulder and struggled badly against the Bulldogs. He said Sunday night that he aggravated the injury during the Georgia game.

''It'll be a kind of day to day, week to week deal,'' Malzahn said. ''Not ready to make a call one way or the other with him. We'll play him when he's healthy.''

White sat out the first half against Vanderbilt because of the injury before coming in and leading the Tigers to the win. He came into the Georgia game as the SEC's top-rated passer. Auburn trailed 13-10 at the half against Vandy without him.

Against Georgia, White was 6-of-20 passing for 27 yards and had an interception returned for a touchdown while the offense produced just 164 total yards. Those numbers include a handful of dropped passes, too, but his first nine attempts after halftime were either intercepted or incomplete.

White's only completions in the second half were two 4-yarders on the final drive. Backup John Franklin III didn't play in the half.

Malzahn said Auburn coaches talked to White at halftime and he could tell by '' that look in his eye'' that the quarterback wanted to play.

''I would have liked to have known if he was worse,'' Malzahn said. ''It would have been good to know. Moving forward, he'll communicate better. He's a tough guy and he's trying to win the game. It's a one-score game, and he felt like he could do it or he'd have said something.''

Those are just the two biggest of a litany of injuries to offensive players.

No. 2 rusher Kerryon Johnson has been nursing an ankle injury, but still gained 99 yards and scored the only offensive touchdown against Georgia. Freshman Malik Miller has missed the last five games with a knee injury, but Malzahn said he is practicing this week.

Safety Johnathan Ford is working at running back, where he started his college career.

Running back Stanton Truitt hurt an ankle early in the Georgia game and will also miss the Alabama A&M game. Malzahn said he's hoping he'll be able to return against Alabama.

H-back Chandler Cox will miss the Alabama A&M game with a leg injury. Receiver/punt returner Marcus Davis is out for the final two regular season games with a shoulder injury.

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday’s games

Ball State lost its last three games, allowing 561 yards, 45 pts/game, but all three of those games were on road- they’re 3-2 SU on road, 3-0 vs spread as road underdogs, with losses on road 30-20 at Indiana, 24-21 at Central Michigan. Cardinals lost five of last seven games with Toledo; favorites are 6-3 vs spread in last nine series games. Toledo is 2-2 as a home favorite this year, winning home games by 35-7-14 points- they lost to Ohio at home. Rockets could be looking ahead to next week’s game with unbeaten Western Michigan. MAC home favorites are 6-15 vs spread this season.

Eastern Michigan became bowl eligible LW after going 7-41 the last four years; Eagles allowed 38 pts/game the last three weeks, but lost last two home games by 15-13 points. EMU covered six of last seven games, is 5-1 as an underdog this year. Northern Illinois won its last eight games with Eagles (6-2 vs spread), running ball for 327.3 yds/game the last three years. NIU is playing first road game in 39 days; they scored 89 points in winning last two games after starting season 1-6. NIU is 2-1 as a favorite this season. MAC home underdogs are 6-10 vs spread.

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday’s six-pack


— Kentucky 69, Michigan State 48— Spartans start out 0-2.


— Baylor 66, Oregon 49— Ducks’ best player didn’t play.


— Indiana State 80, Ball State 74 OT— Good win for Larry Bird’s alma mater


— Dayton 77, Alabama 72— Crimson Tide is lot better than they were last year.


— South Carolina 70, Monmouth 69 OT— Will games like this serve the Hawks well at MAAC tourney in March?


— George Washington 77, Siena 75— Rough day/night for the MAAC, going 1-6, with only win against Dartmouth.


Wednesday’s List of 13: Mid-week musings…….


13) Jared Goff gets his long-awaited first start for the Rams this week against the Dolphins. LA scored one TD on its last 32 drives, so the bar has been set low for improvement over his predecessor.


12) 30 years ago today was November 16, 1986, Jim Everett’s debut with the Rams. He didn’t start, but rallied the Rams back from down 13-0 to lead New England 28-16, but the day didn’t have a happy ending. Patriots scored on a Hail Mary on the last play of the game to win 30-28.


I hope this Sunday has a happier ending.


11) Trivia: Steve Dils started that ’86 game at QB for the Rams, one of only nine games he started for LA.


10) ESPN’s college basketball marathon was last couple nights; very difficult to keep a normal sleep schedule this week. The best games were oddly enough, the 4:15am/6:30am games, from Hawai’i and Hartford.


Long time ago, maybe 25 years ago, friend of mine and I used to joke that “….if ESPN wanted teams to play at 3am, they would”, then it turned out to be true, for at least one night a year.


9) Northeastern 64, UConn 61— Huskies are 0-2 for first time since 1968.


8) New Hampshire 57, Temple 52— Owls lost two players to injuries during the summer, are down this year, but losing to New Hampshire is especially ominous.


7) Gonzaga 69, San Diego State 48— Been long time since the Aztecs got spanked like this; they’ve got lot of injuries right now, and maybe Gonzaga is really good, but this was a bad game.


6) Underdogs were 9-3 vs spread in NFL Sunday, making it a very good day for Las Vegas sportsbooks. Public bets favorites and with eight underdogs winning SU, they had a rough day Sunday.


5) Seattle-New England game on NBC Sunday night was highest-rated Week 10 game since 1998.


4) Giants’ six wins are by a total of 21 points; they’re 3-1 this year in games decided by 3 or less points, after being 2-10 in such games from 2012-15.


3) Minnesota Vikings cut kicker Blair Walsh, who missed eight kicks this year and also a big kick in their playoff loss to the Seahawks last year. He is expected to be replaced by former Redskins’ kicker Kai Forbath.


2) Maryland 76, Georgetown 75— Epic gag job by Hoyas, who led by 5 with 0:20 left. Big win for Mark Turgeon; I saw their first game against American and they didn’t look that good. This was an intense game.


1) Bengals/Falcons are only NFL teams who’ve started the same five offensive linemen in every game this season.

[StarDust Bum]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS:

11/01/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100
11/02/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
11/03/2016 3-3-0 50.00% -150
11/04/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100
11/05/2016 26-34-0 43.33% -5700
11/08/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100
11/09/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100
11/10/2016 1-5-0 16.67% -2250
11/11/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
11/12/2016 23-28-1 45.10% -3900
11/15/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50

TRIPLE PLAYS RECORD: 78 - 701- 7 *****

BIG TEN GOY................0 - 1 ( IOWA BIG LOSER TO WISCONSIN )
MT. WEST GOY..............1 - 0 ( WYOMING ROLLS BIG OVER UTAH ST. )
MAC UNDERDOG GOY.....1 - 0 ( KENT ST. + 21 W.MICHIGAN 37 )
ACC BLOW OUT.............0 - 1 ( CLEMSON -21.5 42 - 43 PITT )
MAC FAVORITE .............1 - 0 ( MIA-OHIO - 10 OVER BUFFALO 35 -24)
SEC BLOW OUT..............1 - 0 ( BAMA -28.5 OVER MISS ST. 51 - 3 )
PAC 12 GOY...................0 - 1 ( USC UPSETS WASHINGTON 26-13 )
BIG 10 DOG..................0 - 1 ( MINNESOTA + 6 LOSES TO NEBRASKA 17 -24 )
PAC 12 BLOW OUT .........1 - 0 ( COLORADO - 17.5 CRUSHES ARIZONA 49 - 24 )

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 287-285-12 50.17% -13250

O/U Picks 100-108-4 48.08% -9400

[StarDust Bum]

Sharps are closely monitoring these Week 12 college football games

Illinois is averaging 27.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play at home this year.

Spread to bet now:

Illinois (+10) vs. Iowa

This line opened at +11.5 and was quickly bet down to the key number of +10. This is a major flat spot for Iowa as they just won straight-up 14-13 as a +24 point home underdog versus Michigan, and now the Hawkeyes are laying points on the road. Iowa has only won once by more than 7 points on the road this season.

Illinois is coming off a blowout loss at Wisconsin last week, but the Illini played well in their previous home game, winning outright 31-27 versus Michigan State as a +9.5 point home dog. Illinois is averaging 27.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play at home this year. The Illini also have a solid rushing attack that averages 5.2 yards per carry in all games this season (versus opponents that allow just 4.7 ypr).

Spread to wait on:

Arizona State (+26.5) at Washington

This line opened at +25 and was quickly bet higher to +26.5. The public will likely play the big favorite, so wait for the possibility of the key numbers of +27 or +28 appearing. Many will expect Washington to bounce back after their first loss of the season, but historically teams that lose their first game this late in the season suffer a letdown. The Huskies might have eliminated themselves from the national playoff picture with their 26-13 home loss versus USC last weekend.

Arizona State has dominated this series, going a perfect 10-0 SU/ATS versus Washington since 2002, and the Sun Devils are catching the Huskies at a good time this week. Despite just a 2-5 SU conference record this season, Arizona State has not lost any game by more than 24 points.

Total to watch:

Oregon at Utah (70.5)

Oregon is just 3-7 SU this season and a terrible 1-8 ATS, but they are 7-3 to the Over. The Ducks have a solid offense that is averaging 37.1 points per game on 6.6 yards per play (versus opponents that allow just 28.9 ppg and 5.9 yppl). However, Oregon's defense has been horrendous, allowing 43.5 points per game on 6.5 yards per play (versus opponents that average just 32.9 ppg and 5.8 yppl).

Utah enters this game on a 3-0 Over run, scoring 49 points or more in two of their past three games. Overall, the Utes are averaging 31.2 points per game (versus opponents that allow just 30.8 ppg). Utah should have continued offensive success against an Oregon defense that has allowed 45.7 points per game on the road this season. The Over is a perfect 3-0 the past three years in this head-to-head series with an average of 75 total points scored per game.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 12

Wednesday, November 16

Northern Illinois @ Eastern Michigan

Game 307-308
November 16, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Northern Illinois
76.539
Eastern Michigan
81.092
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Eastern Michigan
by 4 1/2
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Northern Illinois
by 3
63.5
Dunkel Pick:
Eastern Michigan
(+3); Under

Ball State @ Toledo

Game 305-306
November 16, 2016 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Ball State
73.458
Toledo
84.920
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toledo
by 11 1/2
68
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toledo
by 21
63 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Ball State
(+21); Over




NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 12

Wed – Nov. 16

Ball State at Toledo, 7:00 PM ET
Ball St: 0-7 ATS after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games
Toledo: 76-51 ATS as a favorite

Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan, 8:00 PM ET
N Illinois: 67-41 ATS in road lined games
E Michigan: 17-33 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins




NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 12

Wednesday’s games

Ball State lost its last three games, allowing 561 yards, 45 pts/game, but all three of those games were on road- they’re 3-2 SU on road, 3-0 vs spread as road underdogs, with losses on road 30-20 at Indiana, 24-21 at Central Michigan. Cardinals lost five of last seven games with Toledo; favorites are 6-3 vs spread in last nine series games. Toledo is 2-2 as a home favorite this year, winning home games by 35-7-14 points- they lost to Ohio at home. Rockets could be looking ahead to next week’s game with unbeaten Western Michigan. MAC home favorites are 6-15 vs spread this season.

Eastern Michigan became bowl eligible LW after going 7-41 the last four years; Eagles allowed 38 pts/game the last three weeks, but lost last two home games by 15-13 points. EMU covered six of last seven games, is 5-1 as an underdog this year. Northern Illinois won its last eight games with Eagles (6-2 vs spread), running ball for 327.3 yds/game the last three years. NIU is playing first road game in 39 days; they scored 89 points in winning last two games after starting season 1-6. NIU is 2-1 as a favorite this season. MAC home underdogs are 6-10 vs spread.

[StarDust Bum]

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 16

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

BALL at TOL 07:00 PM

[I]BALL +20.0 *****

O 69.0 *****/I]

NIU at EMU 08:00 PM

NIU -1.0 *****

U 63.0 *****

[StarDust Bum]

ACC Report - Week 12
November 15, 2016


2016 ACC STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Boston College 4-6 1-6 3-6-1 4-6

Clemson 9-1 6-1 5-5 4-6

Duke 4-6 1-5 7-3 2-8

Florida State 7-3 4-3 5-4 5-4

Georgia Tech 6-4 3-4 4-4-1 5-3-1

Louisville 9-1 7-1 5-4-1 7-3

Miami (Fla.) 6-4 3-3 6-4 5-5

North Carolina 7-3 5-2 6-4 4-6

North Carolina State 5-5 2-4 7-3 4-5-1

Pittsburgh 6-4 3-3 4-6 9-1

Syracuse 4-6 2-4 4-6 2-8

Virginia 2-8 1-5 4-5-1 3-6-1

Virginia Tech 7-3 5-2 4-6 5-5

Wake Forest 6-4 3-3 6-4 4-6

Louisville at Houston (Thurs. - ESPN, 8:00 p.m. ET)

Louisville, newly ranked No. 6 in the College Football Playoff rankings, steps out of conference to face Houston. Remember earlier in the season many figured this would be a huge game for Louisville, as Houston was expected to be ranked and perhaps unbeaten by this point? Well, Houston failed to live up to their end of the bargain with losses at Navy and at SMU. The Cougars have failed to cover in five straight entering this contest, and this game could get away from them if they play like they did in their past two wins against UCF and Tulane. Louisville might have been caught looking ahead last week against Wake Forest, as they looked very sluggish until the fourth quarter when they came alive and outscored Wake 34-0 to win 44-12. But the score is certainly not indicative of how close the game was for about 45-50 minutes. Louisville is 1-2-1 ATS in their past four road outings, and 2-4 ATS in their past six games overall.
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Virginia at Georgia Tech (ACC Network, 12:30 p.m. ET)

Virginia has eight losses and they're already thinking about next season. Meanwhille, the Ramblin' Wreck tossed a monkey wrench into the Coastal Division standings with an upset of Virginia Tech last weekend, and they become bowl eligible as a result. Now, they look to improve their bowl situation with a win over a team they are favored to beat by 10 1/2 as of Wednesday morning. The Cavaliers are 6-1-2 ATS in their past nine road games dating back to last season. More importantly, though, and more recently, they're 1-4 ATS in their past five conference battles, 1-4 ATS in their past five overall and 1-4 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning overall mark. Something's gotta give, as the Yellow Jackets are 2-5 ATS in their past seven at home and 3-11-1 ATS in their past 15 conference tilts while going 1-4 ATS in their past five aginst teams with a losing overall mark. The favorite is 9-4-1 ATS in the past 14 meetings in this series, the home team is 16-4-1 ATS in the past 21 battles and the Cavs are 2-8 ATS in their past 10 trips to Bobby Dodd Stadium in the ATL.

Miami-Florida at North Carolina State (ACC Network, 12:30 p.m. ET)

The Hurricanes look to continue their rebound, taking on a Jekyll and Hyde N.C. State team in Raleigh. The Hurricanes started out 4-0 SU/ATS, went 0-4 SU/ATS in their next four, and now they have won and covered their past two. That includes an impressive 51-28 win against Pittsburgh, the team that knocked Clemson from the ranks of the unbeaten last week. Miami has the tools to be a very dangerous team on any given week, but consistency has been key, and complacency when things do not go their way. N.C. State is just one win away from bowl eligibility after a win at Syracuse last weekend, stopping a three-game losing streak which included a loss to a bad Boston College team. Yet, this is also a Wolfpack team which just missed at Clemson, and was sunk late by Florida State two weeks ago. N.C. State can also play with most teams in the nation on any day, but they can be awfully bad some weeks, too. The Wolfpack enter 5-1 ATS in their past six at home, while the 'under' is 5-1 over their past six games.

Connecticut at Boston College (ACC Network, 1:00 p.m.)

Believe it or not, Boston College can still become bowl eligible, and they're favored by a touchdown this weekend in their quest for a fifth victory. UConn has already waved bye-bye to bowl eligibility and all of the vital extra practices that come with that postseason game. Connecticut has been terrible in their past 27 non-conference games, going 6-18-3 ATS, and they're 6-17-3 AST in their past 26 against teams with a losing record and 6-19-1 ATS in their past 26 on the road. The Huskies are also 4-17 ATS in their past 21 on fieldturf. B.C. has covered just one of their past five overall, and they're 1-8-2 ATS in their past 11 at home. However, they are an impressive 4-1-1 ATS in their past six non-conference battles.

Duke at Pittsburgh (ACC Network, 3:00 p.m.)

Duke picked up a huge win last week against North Carolina, securing the Victory Bell trophy from their rivals from Chapel Hill. Duke still has a lot of work to do if they want to become bowl eligible, and they face a big hurdle in Pittsburgh against a Panthers team which upended Clemson last week. Duke heads into this game 4-0 ATS in their past four ACC games, and 5-0 ATS in their past five overall. They're also 4-1 ATS in their past five away from Wallace Wade Stadium. Meanwhile, Pitt, an eight-point favorite, is just 5-16 ATS in their past 21 at home and 0-5 ATS in their past five home games against a team with a losing road record. Pitt steamrolled Duke 31-13 in Durham last season, lost a 51-48 2 OT thriller in the Steel City in 2014 and lost 58-55 at home Sept. 21, 2013. These teams are very familiar with each other, but Pitt is trending a bit more upward this season

Florida State at Syracuse (ABC or ESPN2, 3:30 p.m.)

Florida State heads to the Carrier Dome looking for their eighth victory of the season. The Seminoles have bounced back with two wins at N.C. State and at home against Boston College after their narrow loss to Clemson Oct. 29. They'll get the best from the Orange, who need to win their final two games to become bowl eligible. Syracuse is 4-0 ATS in their past four at home against teams with a winning road record. Florida State is 5-2-1 ATS in their past eight road outings against a team with a losing home record, however, and 5-1 ATS in their past six games in the month of November.

Virginia Tech at Notre Dame (NBC, 3:30 p.m.)

The Hokies step out of conference after a frustrating and costly loss to Georgia Tech last weekend. Meanwhile, Notre Dame got well by humping up on Army in San Antonio last weekend by a 44-6 count. The Irish kept their slim bowl hopes alive with the win. The Irish have shown flashes of brilliance on offense this season, posting 27 or more points in each of their past three, and eight of their 10 games this season. However, they're 2-5 ATS in their past seven non-conference games. They are 4-0 ATS in their past four home games against a team with a winning road record, though. Va. Tech is a dismal 1-4 ATS in their past five road outings, 1-4 ATS in their past five non-conference tilts and 0-7 ATS in their past seven on the road against a team with a losing home record. The Irish are favored by just one point as of Wednesday morning. They are just 1-3 SU in their past four games in the shadow of Touchdown Jesus, and 1-3 ATS in those four true home games.

The Citadel at North Carolina (ACC Network, 3:30 p.m.)

North Carolina steps out of conference, and out of FBS, to take on a good team from The Citadel which is 10-0 overall and 8-0 in the Southern Conference. The Bulldogs have run the football well this season, and that is one area the Tar Heels have had difficulty this season. UNC struggled defensively against James Madison, another run-heavy FCS team, earlier in the season. While UNC is not expected to lose, they might struggle to cover a big number, too. There is no line on the game currently, but check back Saturday AM.

Clemson at Wake Forest (ESPN, 7:00 p.m.)

Clemson suffered its first loss of the season last weekend, losing 43-42 to unranked Pittsburgh in Death Valley. But as luck has it, Michigan and Washington also suffered setbacks, and the loss wasn't as costly to the Tigers. Clemson is still ranked No. 4 in the CFP, but cannot afford any additional slip ups. Wake Forest has been one of the biggest surprises in the ACC, already bowl eligible at 6-4. They are more than a three-touchdown underdog at home despite the fact Clemson is a dismal 2-5-1 ATS in their past eight trips to Winston-Salem. The 'under' is 4-1 in the past five meetings at Wake, and 6-2 in the past eight meetings overall in this series.