The Bum's 2016 College Football Best Bets,Trends,Stat, News !!

[StarDust Bum]

Pac-12 Report - Week 5
September 28, 2016

2016 PAC-12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Arizona 2-2 0-1 1-3 2-2

Arizona State 4-0 1-0 3-1 3-1

California 2-2 0-1 2-2 3-1

Colorado 3-1 1-0 4-0 3-1

Oregon 2-2 0-1 0-3-1 2-2

Oregon State 1-2 0-0 2-1 1-2

Southern California 1-3 0-2 1-3 2-2

Stanford 3-0 2-0 3-0 0-3

UCLA 2-2 0-1 0-4 1-2-1

Utah 4-0 1-0 2-2 2-2

Washington 4-0 1-0 2-2 3-1

Washington State 1-2 0-0 2-1 1-2


Stanford at Washington (Fri. - ESPN, 9:00 p.m. ET)

It's a battle of Top 10 teams when Stanford pays a visit to Seattle Friday night. Head coach Chris Petersen has the Huskies back to the pinnacle in the Pac-12, but can they take a step further with a big win over the Cardinal? Heisman hopeful Christian McCaffrey looks to keep Stanford on track for its first playoff berth. He ranks second in the country with 145.3 rushing yards per game, but might need a much bigger performance against Washington if his team is to remain unbeaten. The Cardinals stayed unbeaten against the number, but it was a bad beat of epic proportions for UCLA bettors last week. A strip sack, fumble, scoop and score with zeroes on the clock helped Stanford to a miraculous cover. The Cardinal are 5-0 ATS in their past five Friday appearances, 6-1 ATS in their past seven road games against a team with a winning home record and 38-16-1 ATS in their past 55 conference battles.Washington is 5-2 ATS in their past seven overall, but 2-6 ATS in their past eight at home against a team with a winning road record. In this series the home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five, and the under is 5-1 in the past six in Seattle and 9-3 in the past 12 meetings overall. The Huskies are favored by three with a total of 44.

Oregon State at Colorado (Pac-12 Network, 2:30 p.m.)

Is Colorado back? Well, they won at Oregon to move to 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS on the season, serving notice to the rest of the conference that the Buffaloes are no longer pushovers. Now, they need to win a game they're supposed to against visiting Oregon State. The Buffaloes opened as a 16 1/2 point favorite and it has been bet up to 18 1/2. Oregon State is just 3-13 ATS in the past 16 inside the Pac-12, and 4-10 ATS in their past 14 against teams with a winning record. The Buffaloes are 5-2 ATS in their past seven inside the league, and 5-2 ATS in their past seven against losing teams. However, they're just 2-6 ATS in their past eight at Folsom against teams with a losing road record.

Utah at California (Pac-12 Network, 6:00 p.m. ET)

The Utes moved to 4-0 with a miraculous last-second victory against USC last weekend. Now, they hit the road and look to remain unblemished at Cal. The Bears are favored by two points, which might appear to be a rather curious line given the fact the Golden Bears are 1-6 ATS in their past seven Pac-12 battles. They're also just 8-20 ATS in their past 28 home games. Utah is 10-3 ATS in their past 13 road games, but 2-5 ATS inside the past seven conference tilts. Bettors might lean to the 'over', too. The over is 6-0 in Utah's past six on the road, and 7-1 ATS in their past eight following a straight up win. The over is also 6-0 in Cal's past six overall, and 5-0 in their past five contests against teams with an overall winning mark. The under is 9-3 in Cal's past 12 inside the conference, however.

Arizona State at Southern California (FOX, 8:30 p.m.)

Two teams going in opposite directions hook up at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum Saturday night, as Arizona State heads in 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, while USC enters 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS. So naturally the Trojans opened as eight-point favorites and have been bet up into the double digits, right? The Sun Devils have covered seven of their past eight overall, and they're 7-1 ATS in their past eight against teams with a losing overall record. They're also 4-0 ATS in their past four conference tilts. Of course they shouldn't have covered last week, but a kickoff return for touchdown on an onside kick helped them to the miraculous backdoor cover. Arizona State has struggled against the number on the road, going 2-7 ATS in their past nine away from the desert. USC is 1-4 ATS in their past five against teams with a inning record, and 1-5 ATS in their past six overall. They're also 1-6 ATS in their past seven inside the league. The Sun Devils have dominated this series against the number, going 4-1 ATS in their past five trips to USC, and 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings overall.

Oregon at Washington State (Pac-12 Network, 9:30 p.m.)

Two of the most disappointing teams in the Pac-12 do battle on the Palouse as the Ducks invade Pullman to square off with the Cougars. Oregon enters as slight road favorites at -1 1/2, looking to avoid a three-game losing streak. Oregon lost to WaZu last season in overtime, snapping an eight-game win streak against the Cougs. The last time the Ducks had a losing streak to a Pacific Northwest school from the Pac-12 was back in 2006-07. Oregon enters 22-5-1 ATS in their past 28 road games, but these Ducks are a shell of their former selves. They're 0-5-1 ATS over their past six games, and that trend paints a more accurate picture. The Cougs are short 'dogs at home, a place they're 6-1 ATS over the past seven. They're also 11-2 ATS in their past 13 games overall. In this series Oregon has failed to cover in six in a row, and they're 1-5 ATS in their past six at Pullman. The over is 4-1 in the past five meetings, and 5-2 in the past seven meetings at Washington State.

Arizona at UCLA (ESPN, 10:30 p.m.)

Arizona came oh so close to stunning Washington in the desert last weekend, but they were unable to finish off the upset in overtime, falling 35-28. The Wildcats have re-discovered their offense after a slow start, averaging 37.5 PPG over the past tow outings. Of course their defense has allowed more points than the previous weekend in each of the past three affairs. UCLA was winning and covering against Stanford for nearly the entire game last week, but the Bruins blew it in the fourth quarter and allowed Stanford to steal one. Now, Arizona and UCLA battle in what amounts to an elimination game, as a second conference loss this early likely means no chance at a trip to the Pac-12 championship game. Arizona is 1-4 ATS in their past five road games, and 1-5 ATS in the past six overall. UCLA is 0-4 ATS in the past four at home, and 0-6 ATS in their past is overall. In this series the favorite is 8-1 ATS in the past nine, with the home team 9-4 ATS in the past 13. The Wildcats have failed to cover in four straight meetings. UCLA is a 13 1/2-point favorite as of Wednesday morning.

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 5
September 28, 2016

THURSDAY, SEPT. 29

Matchup Skinny Edge

KANSAS at TEXAS TECH... Jayhawks 8-19-1 as road dog since 2011, 3-9 as DD dog since LY, 1-8 last nine getting 20 or more. Though KU is 2-1-1 vs. line last four vs. TT. Red Raiders 2-0 as DD chalk TY after 4-6-1 in role for Kingsbury the previous three years.
Texas Tech, based on KU negatives.

UCONN at HOUSTON...Big revenge for UH after loss LY! Diaco only 3-7-1 as dog away from home since 2014, 7-21-1 overall vs. spread since 2014.
Slight to Houston, based on UConn negatives.

FRIDAY, SEPT. 30

Matchup Skinny Edge

TOLEDO at BYU...BYU 4-0 vs. line despite only 1-3 SU mark in 2016. Cougs now 7-1 vs. spread last 8 at Provo. But Rockets 4-0 as dog since LY, also 15-3-1 last 19 on board.
Slight to Toledo, based on team trends.

STANFORD at WASHINGTON...Tree on 15-5 spread run since late 2014. But Huskies have covered 3 of last 4 meetings. Stanford 7-1-1 as dog under David Shaw.
Stanford, based on team trends.

SATURDAY, OCT. 1

Matchup Skinny Edge

BUFFALO at BOSTON COLLEGE...Bulls only 1-7 vs. line since mid 2015. BC 7-2 as home chalk 2012-14 prior to 1-3 mark in role LY.
Boston College, based on team trends.

MARSHALL at PITT... Herd 1-1-1 in rare dog role since 2013. Herd also 9-4-2 vs. line last 13 away from Huntington. Pitt on 5-11 spread skid for Narduzzi since LY, and 1-5 last six as Heinz Field chalk.
Marshall, based on team trends.

MEMPHIS at OLE MISS...Big revenge for Rebs after loss at Liberty Bowl LY. Home team has won and covered handily as teams split games the past two years. Hugh Freeze 35-20-1 overall vs. spread with Rebs. Tigers 4-1 as dog past two seasons but only 7-7-1 overall vs. number since 2015.
Slight to Ole Miss, based on team trends.

TULANE at UMASS...Mass 3-1 vs. line TY but 7-11 last 19 on board. Willie Fritz on 11-6 spread run at Ga So and Tulane since 2015. Only second Wave road chalk in past decade!
Tulane, based on Fritz marks.

MINNESOTA at PENN STATE...Gophers 8-3 last 11 as visiting dog. James Franklin on 9-17 spread skid since early 2014.
Minnesota, based on team trends.

NORTHWESTERN at IOWA...Iowa rolled 40-10 LY and has won and covered last three vs. NU, but Hawkeyes only 1-2 as Nile Kinnick chalk TY and 9-19 in role since 2012. Cats 6-3 as road dog since 2014.
Slight to Northwestern, based on team trends.

RUTGERS at OHIO STATE...Buckeyes have covered five straight since late last season, though Urban was 1-6 as Big Horseshoe chalk LY (2-0 TY). Bucks have rolled past 'gers past two years by combined 105-24.
Ohio State, based on team trends.

KANSAS STATE at WEST VIRGINIA...Bill Snyder has punished Holgorsen, as K-State 4-0 SU and vs. line last four meetings. Snyder dog marks have flattened a bit lately but still 20-11 as dog since 2011. WVU 6-6 as Morgantown chalk since 2013 but Mounties 8-15 last 23 in role for Holgorsen.
Kansas State, based on Snyder series marks.

VIRGINIA at DUKE...Cavs now 12-4 as dog since 2014. Bronco Mendenhall dog mark 15-7 last 22 at BYU & UVa. Duke's only covers last seven as home chalk have been twice against NC Central.
Virginia, based on team trends.

NOTRE DAME vs. SYRACUSE (at East Rutherford, NJ)...Brian Kelly only 20-23 vs. line since 2013, 3-9 last 12 laying points away from South Bend. Orange HC Dino Babers 11-5-1 vs. line since LY at BGSU & 'Cuse.
Syracuse, based on recent Irish road chalk woes.

SOUTH FLORIDA at CINCINNATI...USF destroyed Cincy LY 65-27. Bulls on 11-2 spread surge last 13 in reg season games. If USF a dog, note Taggart 9-4 as road dog with USF, 17-4 in role since 2011 with WKU. Tuberville just 7-11-1 last 19 overall vs. points since late 2014.
USF, based on recent trends.

SMU at TEMPLE...Owls only 5-5- as chalk since LY but Rhule 25-16 vs. spread since 2013. SMU only 4-7 as dog since LY.
Temple, based on team trends.

ODU at CHARLOTTE...ODU only 2-7 as chalk since 2014 and failed to cover vs. Charlotte LY. But 49ers only 1-4-1 as home dog since LY.
Slight to ODU, based on team trends.

MTSU at NORTH TEXAS...Littrell now 3-1 vs. line TY and Mean Green 7-4 last 11 vs. spread since getting rid of Dan McCarney LY.
North Texas, based on recent trends.

UTEP at LA TECH...UTEP 2-7 vs. spread last nine away from Sun Bowl (0-1 TY). Skip 7-3 as Ruston chalk vs. FBS foes since 2014.
La Tech, based on team trends.

FAU at FIU...Shula Bowl! FAU punished FIU physically LY. Note home team has won SU in last six Shula Bowls. But local rivals are combined 0-8 vs. spread thus far in 2016. Owls on 3-11-1 spread skid since early 2015.
FIU, based on series home trend.

WESTERN MICHIGAN at CENTRAL MICHIGAN...Road team has covered last four in this MAC rivalry. If CMU a dog note 10-4 mark in role since 2014. Broncs have covered 6 in row since late 2015.
Slight to Western Michigan, based on series road trends.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS at BALL STATE...NIU has won last seven SU in series and 5-2 vs. line in those games. If Huskies favored note 14-5 mark as visiting chalk since 2012 (0-1 TY). But Ball 4-0 vs. line for Neu, improving from recent Lembo marks when Cards were 3-9 vs. spread at Muncie in 2014-15.
Ball State, based on recent trends.

EASTERN MICHIGAN at BOWLING GREEN...BGSU thus far jinxed by Jinks, 0-4 vs. line, and now no covers in four since Dino Babers left before LY's Camellia Bowl.
Slight to Eastern Michigan, based on recent BGSU woes.

OHIO at MIAMI-OHIO... Solich 8-1 SU last nine vs. Miami, covered last three. Solich has covered last four away since late 2015.
Ohio, based on team trends.

UCF at EAST CAROLINA...Scott Frost might be forging a mild turnaround at UCF, now 3-1 vs. line TY. ECU 2-0 vs. line as host after 0-5 Greenville chalk mark LY.
UCF, based on recent trends.

AKRON at KENT STATE... Home team has won outright last four in neighbor series, covered last three. But Zips 6-3 vs. line away since LY, and Kent only three covers in eight at home since LY.
Slight to Akron, based on team trends.

PURDUE at MARYLAND...Hazell actually 8-2 as road dog since 2014. Durkin 3-0 SU and 2-1 vs. line for Terps, who are 5-4 vs. spread as College Park chalk since 2014.
Slight to Purdue, based on recent Hazell road dog marks.

MIAMI-FLA. at GEORGIA TECH...Richt very familiar with GT and was 8-0 SU and vs. line at Bobby Dodd Stadium/Grant Field with Georgia Bulldogs! Canes have also matched up well lately vs. Jackets, as Miami 6-1 SU and vs. line last seven vs. Paul Johnson.
Miami, based on series and Richt trends.

ILLINOIS at NEBRASKA...Riley 3-0 SU, 2-0-1 vs. line at Lincoln TY, turning around recent home chalk woes with Huskers and OSU Beavers. Illini 4-14 as dog away from home since 2012.
Nebraska, based on recent trends.

WISCONSIN at MICHIGAN...Badgers 6-1 as dog since 2014 (2-0 TY; 4-1 for Chryst). Harbaugh 7-3 as Big House chalk since LY. Teams haven't played since 2010!
Slight to Wisconsin, based on team trends.

LOUISVILLE at CLEMSON...'Ville has won and covered six straight since late 2015. Close games past two years both won SU by Clemson but covers for Cards. Petrino 6-3 last nine as dog.
Slight to Louisville, based on series and team trends.

NORTH CAROLINA at FLORIDA STATE...Fedora only 5-11 as dog since arriving at Heels in 2012. Noles 5-3 as Doak Campbell chalk sine LY, but it drops to 6-9 if including poor 2014.
Slight to Florida State, based on subpar UNC dog mark.

ULM at AUBURN...Malzahn now 1-9 last 10 as Jordan-Hare chalk, 6-16 last 22 on board overall.
ULM, based on recent Malzahn woes.

NAVY at AIR FORCE...Teams have split last six SU though Navy 10-2-1 last 13 vs. spread in this arm of Commander-in-Chief. Force 10-3-1 vs. spread at home since 2014. Mids 21-10 last 31 as dog.
Navy, based on team and series trends.

RICE at SOUTHERN MISS...USM dropped a 65-10 bomb on Rice LY. Owls 2-10-1 last 13 on board. Golden Eagles no covers first two at home TY but still 13-6 vs. spread since 2015.
USM, based on recent Rice negatives.

WYOMING at COLORADO STATE...Border War! Road team has actually covered last three in series, though it was CSU romping in Laramie LY. Bobo 3-4-1 vs. line at Hughes Stadium since LY, Bohl 7-5 as dog since LY.
Wyoming, based on recent trends.

KENTUCKY at ALABAMA...Nick only 3-6 vs. spread as home chalk since LY. But Stoops on 5-16-1 spread skid since mid 2014.
Alabama, based on UK woes.

TENNESSEE at GEORGIA...Butch Jones only 1-2 SU against UGa but has covered all three of those, and UT has covered last four in series. Bulldogs 2-5 vs. line last seven at Athens, Vols 7-1 vs. spread last 8 away.
Tennessee, based on team trends.

GEORGIA STATE at APP STATE...GSU 16-5 as away dog since 2012 but has been routed combined 81-3 past two years by App. Mounties only 5-9 vs. spread at Boone since 2014.
Slight to Georgia State, based on team trends.

FLORIDA at VANDERBILT...Road team has covered last eight in this series! Derek Mason 4-1 last five as home dog, however. McElwain 2-6 last eight vs. spread but was 4-0 as road chalk LY.
Slight to Florida, based on series road and team trends.

UTAH at CAL...Cal just 4-7 last ten on board and 4-9 as home chalk since 2012. Whittingham 6-1 as road dog since 2014.
Utah, based on team trends.
at
TEXAS at OKLAHOMA STATE...OSU 4-2 SU last six vs. Horns, but just 6-5 as Stillwater chalk since 2014. Charlie only 7-8-1 as dog with Texas since 2014, Horns 1-4 as visiting dog that span.
Slight to OSU, based on team and series trends.

OREGON STATE at COLORADO...Buffs have covered last two vs. OSU and 12-3 last 15 vs. line at home. MacIntyre 9-2 last 11 vs. line.
Colorado, based on recent trends.

WAKE FOREST at NC STATE...Deacs 5-1 last six as dog, but host has covered last nine in series! Pack 5-2 last seven as home chalk.
NC State, based on series trends.

TEXAS A&M at SOUTH CAROLINA...Road team has covered last two years, though A&M won both outright. Sumlin 4-0 SU and vs. line in 2016. Muschamp 9-4-1 last 14 as dog with UF & SC.
Slight to South Carolina, based on Muschamp extended dog marks.

ARIZONA at UCLA...Mora has owned Rich-Rod, wins and covers the past four years. Though UCLA no covers last six since late 2015, and 1-7 last eight as Rose Bowl chalk. Cats just 2-8 last ten away from Tucson.
UCLA, based on series trends.

ARIZONA STATE at USC...Todd Graham only 4-7 as visiting dog with Devils but did win at SC in 2014. Helton on 2-8 spread skid since mid 2015. Also 1-5 SU and vs. line since named full-time HC.
Arizona State, based on team trends.

BAYLOR at IOWA STATE...Bears only 1-2-1 vs. line last four vs. Cyclones. Bears 4-7-1 vs. spread last 12 as visitor (0-1 for Grobe). Matt Campbell was 12-6 as dog with Toledo, 1-1 in role with ISU.
Slight to Iowa State, based on team trends.

MICHIGAN STATE at INDIANA...Dantonio has won and covered big the past three years vs. Hoosiers. Though Spartans 0-3 as visiting chalk LY, Dantonio was 12-2 in role previous five years.
Michigan State, based on series and extended team trends.

OKLAHOMA at TCU...Frogs have covered last three in series but TCU has started 2016 0-3 vs. spread. TCU was 11-2 vs. spread as host 2014-15. Sooners did cover all five as true visitor LY.
TCU, based on series and team trends.

MISSOURI at LSU...LSU 0-4 vs. line TY, and 5-11-1 last 167since late 2014. Mizzou has covered last two TY for Barry "Jerry Quarry" Odom and 12-6 as visiting dog since 2011. Oregeron debut as LSU interim HC .
Mizzou, based on recent LSU negatives.

SAN DIEGO STATE at SOUTH ALABAMA...SDSU has a 13-game SU win streak and has covered six in a row away from Qualcomm. Jags just 3-8 as home dog since 2012.
SDSU, based on team trends.

ULL at NEW MEXICO STATE...NMS pulled the upset at ULL LY and 7-5-1 last 13 as dog. ULL has covered last three TY but was just 4-7-1 vs. spread in 2014, 2-4-1 as chalk.
Slight to NMSU, based on recent trends.

TROY at IDAHO...Trojans were upset at home by Idaho LY but Trojans 8-2 vs. spread last ten as visitor. Idaho 0-3 as home dog LY.
Troy, based on recent trends.

SAN JOSE STATE at NEW MEXICO...Lobos 1-3 as home chalk LY but 7-4 vs. spread last 11 at Albuquerque. Caragher 2-15 as dog since 2014, 1-11 as visiting dog that span.
New Mexico, based on SJSU dog woes.

UTAH STATE at BOISE STATE...Big revenge for Boise after getting bounced 52-26 at Logan LY. Matt Wells just 5-10 as dog for Utags. Harsin however only 2-6 vs. spread last eight as blue carpet chalk.
Slight to Boise State, based on team trends.

OREGON at WASHINGTON STATE...Revenge for Ducks after home loss LY. But Webfoots 9-0-1 vs. line last ten as visitor. Leach has covered all four vs. UO since arriving at Pullman in 2012, and Cougs on hard-to-believe 6-game cover streak in series Leach 7-1 as dog since last season.
Washington State, based on series trends.

FRESNO STATE at UNLV...Home team has won and covered last two in series. FSU on 1-8 spread skid as road dog since late 2014.
UNLV, based on team trends.

NEVADA at HAWAII...Pack 11-5 vs. line away from Reno since 2015 and has beaten Hawaii last 5 SU. Polian also 3-0 vs. spread against UH. Bows 1-10 vs. spread last 11 at Aloha Stadium (0-1 for Rolovich).[/B]
Nevada, based on team and series trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 4
September 28, 2016


THURSDAY, SEPT. 29

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
MIAMI at CINCINNATI (NFL Network, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Miami 6-18 last 24 on board but only 1-2 with Gase. Marvin Lewis just 6-7-1 as home chalk past two seasons but 12-7-1 in role back to 2013.
Tech Edge: Slight to Bengals, based on team trends.

SUNDAY, OCT. 2

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
INDIANAPOLIS vs. JACKSONVILLE from London (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
After losing six in a row SU vs. Colts, Jags won 51-16 last December. Colts "over" 7-3 last 10 away, Jags "over" 13-7 last 19.
Tech Edge: "Over," based on "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CLEVELAND at WASHINGTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Browns have covered last two but 4-9-1 last 14 on board. Skins 0-3 as chalk since LY and also 11-21 vs. line for Jay Gruden save the last four games of 2105 reg season when Skins surged late. Skins now "over" last eight since late 2015.
Tech Edge: "Over," based on "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
BUFFALO at NEW ENGLAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Rex Ryan 0-1-1 vs. line against Belichick LY, but was 5-1 vs. spread against Pats in previous six with Jets. Bills no covers first two TY while Belichick has covered first three. Belichick 36-16 "over" at home since 2010.
Tech Edge: Slight to "over" and Patriots, based on "totals" and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SEATTLE at NY JETS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Seattle "under" 5-1-1 "under" last seven reg season. Jets 10-6-2 vs. line for Bowles since LY.
Tech Edge: "Under," based on recent "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CAROLINA at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Falcs dealt Panthers their only reg.-season loss of 2015 at Georgia Dome LY. But that has been Atlanta's only cover last seven at home (1-6). Carolina 6-2 vs. line last eight meetings. Last six meetings "under" as well.
Tech Edge: Panthers and "under," based on series trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DETROIT at CHICAGO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bears are 1-8 SU and vs. line at home since LY for Fox. Chicago 1-7 last eight on board since late 2015. Lions on 8-3 spread uptick since mid 2015 and have won last three SU at Soldier Field.
Tech Edge: Lions, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
TENNESSEE at HOUSTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Titans only 9-29-3 vs. line since late 2013. Houston has owned this series with five covers in a row and 9-1 last ten. O'Brien 6-1 as home chalk since 2015, also "under" 7-2 last nine at NRG and "under" 7-1 last eight since late 2015.
Tech Edge: Texans and "under," based on series and "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
OAKLAND at BALTIMORE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Raiders have covered five straight on road. Tempted to toss Ravens 2015 numbers when injured and 1-6-1 at home vs. line, already 1-0 in 2016 at M&T Bank Stadium.
Tech Edge: Raiders, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DENVER at TAMPA BAY (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Kubiak was 7-1-2 vs. line away since LY and 4-1-1 as road chalk. Bucs only 3-6 vs. line as host since LY and on 1-6 spread slide since late 2015.
Tech Edge: Broncos, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DALLAS at SAN FRANCISCO (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Niners "under" 9-1 last ten at Santa Clara, Dallas "under" 12-8 last 20.
Tech Edge: "Under," based on "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NEW ORLEANS at SAN DIEGO (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Bolts only 3-11 vs. line last 14 at home though did clock the Jags in 2016 Qualcomm opener. Brees however 8-3-1 last 12 as dog.
Tech Edge: Saints, based on Brees dog marks.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
LOS ANGELES at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Arians 5-1 vs. line against Fisher since 2013, though game he lost came at home LY. Rams under" 14-5-1 last 20 since late 2014, also 3-7-1 last 11 away vs. points.
Tech Edge: Cards and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
KANSAS CITY at PITTSBURGH (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Chiefs only 1-5 as dog since 2015. Steel 8-2-1 vs. spread at home last 10 in reg season.
Tech Edge: Steelers, based on team trends.

MONDAY, OCT. 3

NY GIANTS at MINNESOTA (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
G-Men 2-6-1 vs. line since late 2015. Zimmer 17-3 vs. line since 2015!
Tech Edge: Vikings, based on team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

T-Tech made heavy 'chalk'
September 28, 2016


Week 5 - Thursday Night Preview

Week 5 of the college football season opens up with two big favorites, as the 6th ranked Houston Cougars host Connecticut as -28.5 point favorites, while Texas Tech is favored by the same number in a home game vs. Kansas.

These aren't the most intriguing games college football could open up Week 5 with as conference play hits full swing across the land, but these two heavy favorites will be a popular bet on Thursday night.

Will both of them cover, or will one of these ugly underdogs get to the betting window as a winner? That will all be determined late Thursday night, but for now let's break down the Big 12 matchup in Texas.

Sportsbook.ag Odds: Texas Tech (-28.5); Total set at 81

At 2-1 SU and ATS to start the 2016 campaign, Texas Tech has to be pleased with their start. They look to have the best offense in the entire Big 12 Conference, scoring 55 or more points in all three of their games so far. The problem is, their defense gives up plenty of points themselves with 113 points allowed over their last two games – the only two vs. FBS competition.

Those defensive issues will have to be somewhat fixed by the time the Red Raiders reach the meat of their schedule later on with games vs. West Virginia, Oklaoma, and TCU to close out October, but it shouldn't be a huge concern here vs. Kansas. The Jayhawks simply don't have nearly enough weapons to match Texas Tech on the scoreboard if this game becomes a shootout. That's not the style of play Kansas will be looking to employ here and that should be of note to astute bettors.

If Kansas wants any chance of pulling off the huge upset, they'll need to shorten the game. That means staying ahead of the chains, bleeding the clock with long, extended drives full of running plays to keep Texas Tech's offense on the sidelines.

That method should be possible with Texas Tech allowing 206.7 yards on the ground per game this year, so look for the Jayhawks to run the ball more often than they have so far. It likely won't work too well as this game should be a SU loss for Kansas, but the point spread is always the great equalizer. That hook on the four TD line might very well come into play for side bettors.

Yet, it's the total that is more attractive to me as it's tough to see this number of 81 get surpassed, even with the Red Raiders 55+ points per game. The fact is, the only other time Texas Tech was laying more than two TD's this year, was in their opener against FCS school Stephen F. Austin when they won 69-17. The 86 points put up was a lot, but it still snuck 'under' the 87 total and I believe we see a similar result in terms of the total here.

For one, even though they love to play fast, Texas Tech will eventually take their foot off the gas when they get up big and bleed the clock away. Combine that with Kansas' likely strategy of shortening the game with their own rushing attack and bettors might not have enough time left in the game to get 82+ points.

The last two meetings between these two programs have been relatively tight 10 and 13-point games, but both also didn't have more than 55 points scored. In fact, although there have been some recent 'overs' in this rivalry, only once since they started playing every year back in 2008 have there been more than 81 points scored and that was a 63-21 Texas Tech win in '08 when WR Michael Crabtree was tearing up the Big 12.

Kansas is on a 4-14 O/U run in their last 18 games away from home, and have a 9-23 O/U run going after failing to cover a spread. The last thing the Jayhawks want this game to be is a back-and-forth shootout between the two offenses because Kansas will lose that game every single time. But with a strong likelihood of Texas Tech establishing that big lead early on and then running out clock, this contest will not see more than 80 points scored.

Take Under 81 points.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Thursday, September 29

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NCAAF Game of the Day: Connecticut at Houston
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

QB Greg Ward Jr. (936 passing yards, five touchdowns and 113 rushing yards, three TDs) leads a balanced offense that's averaging 44.8 points.

Connecticut Huskies at No. 7 Houston Cougars (-28, 51)

Seventh-ranked Houston gets a chance to avenge its only loss from last year when it hosts Connecticut in an American Athletic Conference game Thursday night. Both starting quarterbacks missed the majority of last year's meeting - a 20-17 UConn home victory- but return healthy for the rematch.

Houston's Greg Ward Jr., who didn't play at UConn because of an ankle injury until backup Kyle Postma was injured late in the fourth quarter, has won 17 straight as the Cougars' starter. The Cougars, looking to begin 5-0 in back-to-back seasons for the first time in program history, recorded at least 40 points and 500 total yards in three straight games. Bryant Shirreffs, who left last year's game with a concussion on the second series, helped the Huskies overcome slow starts in all four games. UConn has been outscored 31-0 in the first quarter this season before having all four games decided by seven or fewer points.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Houston has drawn heavy chalk in this AAC matchup, hitting the board as 27.5-point home favorites and have been bet up to -28 since then. The total has also been bet up, going from its opening number of 50.5 to the current number of 51. Check out the complete line history here.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "The majority of action on Houston, where we have almost 80 percent of the wagers, is from the square contingent. But we've had a couple of sharps hit the Cougars as well, which prompted the bump two points to -30. It feels like this could come down before it goes up."

INJURY REPORT:

Connecticut - RB N. Hopkins (probable Thursday, leg), OL B. Vechery (probable Thursday, leg), OL T. Rutherford (probable Thursday, undisclosed), LB J. Hicks (questionable Thursday, leg), OL T. Hopkins (questionable Thursday, leg), LB O. Stephens (questionable Thursday, leg), OL D. Oak (out Thursday, undisclosed).

Houston - CB B. Wilson (questionable Thursday, leg), OL M. Long (questionable Thursday, undisclosed), OL A. Fontana (questionable Thursday, elbow), RB M. Car (out Thursday, knee).

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a beautiful night for football in Houston. The forecast is calling for clear skies with temperatures in the mid to low 70's for the game. There could be a seven to eight mile per hour wind blowing across the field from north to south.

ABOUT CONNECTICUT (2-2, 0-3-1 ATS, 2-2 O/U): Shirreffs threw for 819 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions and rushed for another score. Noel Thomas Jr. (40 receptions, 388 yards, one TD) has nearly half of UConn's catches (81) and receiving yards (861) after a 14-catch performance against Syracuse. The Huskies were stopped at the goal line in losses to Navy (as time expired) and Syracuse (late in the fourth quarter), and got late game-winning field goals from Bobby Puyol (5-of-5 in field goals and 10-of-10 on extra points) in their two wins.

ABOUT HOUSTON (4-0, 3-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U): Ward (936 passing yards, five touchdowns and 113 rushing yards, three TDs) leads a balanced offense that's averaging 44.8 points. Senior linebacker Steven Taylor (tied for second nationally with 5.5 total sacks) leads a unit that is ranked first in the nation in rushing defense (37 yards), fourth in scoring defense (10.5 points) and fifth in total defense (228.8 yards). The Cougars held six straight opponents to fewer than 100 rushing yards, including three straight (Texas State, 33; Cincinnati, 30; Lamar, 15) to 33 or fewer.

TRENDS:

* Connecticut is 1-4 ATS in its last five games versus a team with a winning record.
* Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.
* Under is 4-0 in Connecticut's last four games following a SU loss.
* Under is 6-1 in Houston's last seven home games.

CONSENSUS: Bettors are having no problem laying all those points with the home team, as a whopping 76 percent of wagers are backing Houston. As for the total, an even bigger majority is backing the Over, with 81 percent of wagers on it.

[StarDust Bum]

CFB BEST BETS:

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 105-101-6 50.97% -3050

O/U Picks 38-39-2 49.35% -2450


THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

CONN at HOU 08:00 PM

CONN +28.5

O 49.0


KU at TTU 08:30 PM

TTU -28.0

U 79.0

[StarDust Bum]

Best Bets - Week 5
September 29, 2016


Conference play is in full swing now that the college football season has reached October, and that means that we will see significant moves in the Top 25 from here on out.

We've got some huge games between Top 10 teams this week, and other ranked foes in tough elsewhere across the country, but it's one of those few Top 10 games that has caught my eye as a great best bet spot.

Sportsbook.ag Odds: #8 Wisconsin (+10) vs. #5 Michigan (-10); Total set at 45

There weren't many that though this Wisconsin team was for real prior to last week's drubbing of Michigan State in East Lansing, but now it appears as though the Badgers bandwagon got loaded up with supporters after that huge W. Wisconsin thoroughly beat Michigan State last week in all aspects of the game (30-6 victory) and made believers out of many because of it.

In fact, as double digit underdogs this week against another highly touted team from Michigan, it's actually the Badgers who are getting nearly 60% of the support ATS and almost 90% of ML wagers coming in so far.

ML bets on quality dogs like Wisconsin will tend to have a skewed percentage, but the fact that one solid win over a Michigan State team – that might not be as good as we've grown to expect this year – has bettors firmly believing in the Badgers right now, might turn out to be a mistake.

See, this week is the middle of an absolutely brutal three-game stretch for Wisconsin as they go to the Big House to face Michigan, before returning home next week to take on Ohio State.

Badgers fans (and players/coaches) will say that this brutal stretch is a huge opportunity to take advantage of if they can come away with victories, but the reality is eventually they'll run out of gas continually banging heads with college football's elite.

Yes, last week's win in East Lansing was huge for the Badgers and solidified their place on the map, but the competition level takes another step up this week vs. Michigan and I'm not so sure all those Wisconsin bandwagoners won't leave Ann Arbor very disappointed.

Michigan is 4-0 SU as well and have yet to really be tested. All four of their wins have come by at least 17 points, and all four of them were at home. This week's game against Wisconsin is actually the fifth straight home game for the Wolverines as they were gifted a very nice stretch to start the year and have to be extremely comfortable right now playing in front of their fans.

They also have the advantage of not questioning the idea of if Wisconsin is for real or not like Michigan State may have, and that's another positive note favoring Michigan here.

Finally, Michigan's defense has been superb already this year, but digging deeper into the numbers shows even more doom for Wisconsin this week. All four of Michigan's opponents have had a season low in yardage totals when they faced the Wolverines and I would not be surprised to see Michigan up that streak to five this week.

Wisconsin isn't exactly an explosive offensive team in their own right, but if you can't move the ball on Michigan and cause a little bit of doubt for their defense, it's going to be a long afternoon for you.

Michigan is on a 4-1 ATS run after scoring 40+ points last time out and the Badgers are just 1-5 ATS after winning by 20+. Wisconsin's bandwagon might be near capacity, but don't count me as one of those on board.

Take Michigan -10

[StarDust Bum]

'Dogs to Watch - Week 5
September 28, 2016


College Football Week 5 Ranked Underdogs with a Chance

Now that conference play has fully arrived, we will see some great weekly mathcups between ranked opponents. That means that there will be some ranked underdogs out there on the board and many of them will win the game outright.

This week we've got six ranked teams catching points this week, with two of them (Wisconsin, Clemson) being featured in Top-10 matchups.

Three others (Utah, TCU, Texas) are getting points against unranked foes (always a concern), while the final game is the Tennessee/Georgia game in a battle of Top-25 foes.

None of these underdogs are getting more than the +10.5 points Wisconsin is on the road against #4 Michigan, so expect some very entertaining, tight affairs.

That being said, here are two games that college football bettors should be willing to take a little longer look at the underdog when they are breaking down the games this weekend.

Sportsbook.ag Odds: #11 Tennessee (-4) vs. #25 Georgia (+4); Total set at 53

It was a tail of two halves for Tennessee last week as they finally were able to stop the losing streak against rival Florida with 38 unanswered points between the late stages of the 2nd quarter and final five minutes of the game.

Much has been made about that Tennessee/Florida rivalry and how the Gators have owned it this century, but the Vols were able to snap it in dramatic fashion a week ago.

Now the Vols head out on the road to face a Georgia team that looked absolutely awful in a 45-14 loss to Ole Miss a week ago. It's unlikely that bettors who had viewed those two SEC contests would have any faith in Georgia this week, yet the spread is only a single score.

That fact alone has be believing that the odds makers believe Georgia will have a strong bounce back effort this week, win or lose. The Bulldogs catch Tennessee off a huge emotional high in this spot and that could hurt the plethora of bettors looking to lay the points with the road side here.

Tennessee may be 4-0 SU, but they've yet to play a complete 60 minutes of sound football and eventually that will catch up with them. Considering Tennessee is on a 7-18-1 ATS run after covering the spread, Georgia is 5-2 ATS after a loss, and the underdog in this rivalry is a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four years, taking a long hard look at grabbing the points with the Georgia Bulldogs this week could very well be rewarded.

Sportsbook.ag Odds: #22 Texas (+3) vs. Oklahoma State (-3); Total set at 72

Texas had a week off to regroup after suffering their first loss @Cal two weeks ago and now many are hesitant to back them against the typical powerhouses in the Big 12. After all, Oklahoma State comes into this one unranked after losing their last game themselves; falling to 2-2 SU in the process.

While taking unranked or lower ranked home favorites in college football is a solid strategy overall, this Texas team is for real and the time off to mourn their first defeat and get hungry to rebound had to have served them well.

It also doesn't hurt Texas' chances here knowing that the road team has gone 7-0 SU and ATS the last seven times these two teams have hooked up, including a 30-27 win by OK State last year as -2.5 point favorites. These two have alternated wins since the start of the 2011 season and this year's Longhorns squad is very capable of keeping that streak alive.

[StarDust Bum]

Big 12 Future Outlook
September 29, 2016


Handicapping the Big 12 Expanstion Derby

Though the past couple of years have been relatively quiet, we've still seen more upheaval in the college conference landscape over the past six years than we have the sixty years preceding. The next movement of those tectonic plates could be just around the corner, as a once covert process has become unabashedly overt as the Big 12 has not only announced it is considering expanding beyond its current 10-school membership, but is openly soliciting applicants.

At times over the past few months the process has more resembled the IOC evaluating bids from interested cities for the Summer and Winter Olympics, or FIFA for future World Cups. Only there has been no need for under-the-table dealings, as most of the candidate schools have been open about what they will be bringing to the conference table.

We mention Big 12 expansion because the next marker in this process is supposed to be coming soon, on October 17, when the league conducts its next meetings. The expansion topic is likely to be addressed, with even a possibility of invitations being extended. With the Big 12's top football contenders struggling on the field in September, and the league looking unlikely to place a team in the football Final Four, the October meetings could provide the Big 12's highlight for the autumn.

There are more angles and topics to be discussed about the conference that will be covered later this season in other installments that will likely stretch into TGS Basketball issues this winter. In the meantime, a look at the eleven remaining schools that reportedly made the "first cut" as expansion candidates.

Houston...UH is certainly the "it" candidate right now thanks to current football prowess, though just a few years ago the Cougars were floundering, and didn't even get bowl-eligible in 2012. UH intrigues mostly because of its potential impact in the lucrative Houston TV market, which has been overrun by the SEC (featuring nearby Texas A&M, and LSU not too far away) in recent years. TV execs, though, are reportedly a bit lukewarm to that angle, maintaining that they already have figured the Houston market into the Big 12 calculations, especially with its large concentration of Texas Longhorns backers. Texas, however, could figure prominently in any decision regarding the Cougs, as UT has a 300-acre parcel of land in Houston that it would like to develop into a new satellite campus. Which has met some resistance from UH. To placate the Cougs, might UT endorse a vote for UH to enter the league in exchange for a blessing on its new satellite campus in the area?

Cincinnati...The Bearcats have been angling for something better than the American ever since the dissolution of the football Big East. In recent years, Cincy has openly campaigned for a spot in the ACC as well as in the Big 12. Adding the Bearcats would allow the Big 12 to extend its footprint into the Midwest. But how much clout Cincy has with TV execs remains a bit cloudy, because the Cincinnati area is already aligned with the Big Ten, as Ohio State is not too far to the east and Indiana not too far to the west, while the Queen City abuts the Ohio River and Kentucky, which is the northernmost SEC outpost. The Bearcats, however, would placate West Virginia, which is clamoring for at least one other semi-nearby school to be admitted to give it a regional rival and a travel partner in hoops. Cincy has also just completed some extensive refurbishing on its on-campus Nippert Stadium, though some sources maintain the Bearcats might have been better served by making a permanent move to the NFL Bengals' Paul Brown Stadium, similar to what Pitt did early in the last decade with the Steelers' Heinz Field.

BYU...Earlier in the summer, the Cougars might have been the favored team to gain admittance. BYU has a lot to offer, namely a national following and the clout to make its own deal with ESPN. Plenty of prestige and top-notch facilities in Provo, too. But the politically-correct element of society and the current educational system is suddenly throwing a lot of cold water on the Cougs' candidacy, as BYU's strict LDS code runs afoul of the LGBT movement as well as some Title IX considerations. Already, there has been a resolution from the Iowa State student government that opposed a Cougar invite. More than a few conference insiders consider the BYU candidacy to now be a "toxic" one. But this one is hard to read, because the Cougs bring a lot to the table both financially and football-wise. Yet in these days of the tail wagging the dog in college sport (more on that in a few weeks on these pages), it is also a plausible scenario to envision BYU effectively eliminating itself.

South Florida...The Bulls, along with UCF, could hold the key to a new region for the TV concerns, though network execs again wonder how much impact the Big 12 can make in Florida, which is already heavy SEC and ACC territory. The dynamics of the state and the growing population bases of Tampa/St. Pete and Orlando mean that logistically, USF probably has to be taken seriously. The Bulls do play in an NFL facility (the Bucs' Raymond James Stadium) and their SunDome is a functional hoops arena. Still, USF's appeal is based mostly upon its potential to open a new TV region.

UCF...Ditto the USF appeal for UCF, which also has the potential to bring a dynamic and expanding metro area (Orlando) and region into the camp of the Big 12, which has to consider the Knights as well as USF if serious about exploring Sunshine State possibilities. UCF has opened a 50,000-seat on-campus stadium within the last decade and has an acceptable hoops facility. But the Knights, though with a couple of highlights on the field in recent years, do not add much prestige-wise to the league. Like USF, the potential appeal of more TV sets is the Knights' primary attraction.

UConn...If the Big 12 wants to make a footprint in another entirely new region, UConn would be more than happy to provide the entree into the Northeast. TV execs, however, are not quite sure how much clout the Huskies have outside the Constitution State, which has never been a college football hotbed, though UConn does indeed introduce the league to a new territory. The Huskies are also much like Cincinnati, having expended a lot of energy in hopes the ACC might come calling after the dissolution of Big East football. While the Huskies have quite a recent basketball tradition, their football pedigree is spotty at best. And much of the current Big 12 membership might not be thrilled with adding such a far-away locale into the league; indeed, the distance between Texas Tech and UConn is nearly 2000 miles. Safe to say the Huskies would probably not be the Red Raiders' first choice.

Tulane...If the Big 12 wants to push its boundaries eastward, but not all of the way to Florida and collar a nice new TV market in the process, Tulane could be a nice fall-back option. Though New Orleans proper has lost population since Hurricane Katrina, it is still the focal point of the region, and the Green Wave candidacy is mostly centered upon bringing the vibrant city and Gulf centerpiece into the mix. Tulane's TV clout, however, is considered a bit dubious, because New Orleans, even with its prominence in Louisiana, is not one of the nation's bigger TV markets, and the Green Wave has only occasionally been a factor on the gridiron in the past fifty years. Tulane has recently made investments in new football and basketball stadiums, but they would be the smallest venues (by a good margin) in the current Big 12 lineup.

Colorado State...It might surprise some that CSU, and not Boise State, has made the Big 12's first round of cuts out of the Mountain West. In Boise's case, the Broncos were not offering much besides their recent football prowess and occasional basketball trips to the Big Dance, as the Boise area is not a major TV market. Moreover, Boise's academic rating is decidedly low, which did not endear the Broncos to the Big 12 bigwigs, either. CSU, with its hefty 32,000 enrollment, rates more highly in that regard and has other possible bonuses, such as an entree into the Denver TV market (ranked 17th) and access to a major airport, with nearby DIA ranking fourth nationally in traffic. Once again, however, the TV execs are not exactly gushing over these favorables, as Ft. Collins sits at the edge of Denver metro, and the University of Colorado, closer to Denver, has more clout in the region. Besides, Denver TV means the Broncos and their fan base, much more than CU or CSU. Still, the Rams can at least semi-check the TV box (remember, Denver was also Big 12 territory for years when Colorado was a member), and they have made a major commitment to facilities in recent years, with a new, on-campus stadium ready top open next year, a football indoor training facility having opened within the past four years, and noisy Moby Arena having undergone upgrades. CSU's location is also not a problem for the rest of the current Big 12 lineup.

Air Force...There is plenty of cachet' attached to a service academy these days, and Air Force has made the first round of cuts because of its national fan base as well as USAF facilities in Texas, still the central area of the Big 12. The Colorado Springs locale is also not too inconvenient for the rest of the league. Some consider it rather ambitious of the Academy to court the Big 12 as it has. But the service academies want in on the college football loot, too, and the Force would like to include itself for a bigger piece of the pie than the current Mountain West provides.

SMU...Using its "Big D" location as its main selling point, SMU has made the first round of cuts in the expansion derby. The Mustangs bring plenty of history and prestige and lots of Dallas-area money into the equation, though the glory-day gridiron exploits of SMU are now generations ago. And while the school's facilities are either rather new (football Ford Stadium) or recently upgraded (venerable Moody Coliseum for hoops), they would both be by far the smallest venues in the current Big 12 lineup. TV execs are also said to be cool on the SMU candidacy, figuring the Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex is already Big 12 territory, and SMU would only minimally impact the current TV calculations.

Rice...The fact the Owls have even made the first cut suggests the Big 12 must be serious about the Houston market; why else even talk to Rice? (Indeed, this might indicate real strength for the UH bid, based on logistics). Rice is currently the second-smallest enrollment (behind only Tulsa) of current FBS members, and while the academics are rated highly and there is a much distinguished alumni, there is not a lot of the latter, as the alum base is small compared to other schools in Texas and candidates for expansion. Rice does not bring much to the table in the major sports, in which it has long struggled, though the Owls have fared well in other sports, even winning the College World Series back in 2003.

[StarDust Bum]

Stanford at Washington
September 29, 2016

Washington and Stanford will take their unbeaten records into Husky Stadium on Friday night for a crucial Pac-12 North showdown between the division’s two best teams. As of Wednesday, most books had Washington installed as a three-point home favorite with a total of 44 points.

However, by Thursday morning, most spots had adjusted the Huskies to -3.5, but with a -105 price tag. The Cardinal was +155 on the money line (risk $100 to win $155). Meanwhile, for first-half wagers, Washington was favored by 2.5 with a 22-point tally.

Stanford (3-0 straight up, 3-0 against the spread) kept its ledger unscathed in Week 4 by rallying past UCLA for a 22-13 win as a 2.5-point road favorite. The Cardinal trailed for most of the game but outscored the Bruins 16-3 in the final stanza.

Trailing 13-9 with 24 seconds remaining, Ryan Burns put perfect touch on a lob pass to the corner of the end zone for JJ Arcega-Whiteside, who hauled it in for an eight-yard TD grab in traffic. Some gamblers might have been on Stanford at -3 or UCLA at +3 (if they placed their bet earlier in the week) and were likely looking at a push until the game’s final play.

UCLA’s Josh Rosen was attempting to roll to his right and get rid of a Hail Mary pass to the end zone. But as he was winding up to launch the long throw, a Stanford defender came from behind and knocked the ball loose. Solomon Thomas grabbed the ball and raced 42 yards for a scoop and score to give Stanford -3 backers a miracle win and simultaneously hand UCLA +3 supporters an unfathomably bad beat. The 35 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 47-point total.

Christian McCaffrey rushed for 138 yards on 26 carries, while Bryce Love contributed 51 rushing yards on just five attempts. Burns completed 13-of-25 passes for 137 yards with one TD and one interception. Trenton Irwin made seven catches for 81 yards.

McCaffrey has 635 all-purpose yards through three games. The first-team All-American in 2015 appears poised to collect those same honors again. McCaffrey has rushed for 429 yards and three TDs, averaging 5.5 yards per carry. He also has 13 receptions for 126 yards and one TD.

Burns, a true junior, beat out sophomore Keller Chryst for the starting QB job in August Burns has connected on 36-of-58 passes (62.1%) for 402 yards with a 3/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Stanford is ranked eighth nationally in scoring defense, allowing just 12.0 PPG. This unit is led by senior safety Zach Hoffpauir, who has successfully returned to the gridiron after taking a year off to play minor-league baseball. Hoffpauir has a team-best 16 tackles. Thomas has recorded 10 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks and three QB hurries. Senior LB Peter Kalambayi has 12 tackles, four TFL, 2.5 sacks and one QB hurry.

Washington (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) gave up a tying TD at Arizona with 17 seconds remaining last week, but the Huskies remained unbeaten nonetheless by capturing a 35-28 win over the Wildcats in overtime. Chris Petersen’s squad never threatened to cover the number as a 17-point road favorite, while the 63 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 58.5-point total thanks to OT.

Arizona was playing without starting QB Anu Solomon and RB Nick Wilson, but Rich Rodriguez’s team still produced 475 yards of total offense. However, Washington was able to force three turnovers.

Lavon Coleman needed only 11 carries to produce 181 rushing yards and one TD. Jake Browning found Dante Pettis for a four-yard scoring strike to put the Huskies in front on the first possession of the extra session. After Arizona moved to UW’s 11, its drive stalled and a bad snap on a fourth-and-10 play resulted in a stop and the end of the game.

Browning completed 14-of-21 passes for 160 yards and two TDs with one interception. He also scored a TD on a three-yard run. Myles Gaskin rushed for 85 yards on 24 carries.

Browning, a true sophomore who now has 16 career starts to his credit, has completed 67-of-95 passes (70.5%) for 904 yards with a 14/2 TD-INT ratio. Chico McClatcher has 12 receptions for 269 yards and four TDs, while John Ross has 17 catches for 195 yards and five TDs. Pettis has brought down 11 balls for 151 yards and three scores.

Gaskin has rushed for 302 yards and a pair of TDs while averaging 4.7 YPC. Coleman has produced 261 rushing yards and one TD on just 27 carries for an eye-popping 9.7 YPC average.

Washington owns an 8-5 spread record in 13 games as a home favorite during Petersen’s three-year tenure. As for Stanford, it has compiled a 4-1-1 spread record with four outright victories in its six games as a road underdog on David Shaw’s watch.

Stanford has won three in a row and seven of the last eight in this rivalry, but Washington is 3-1 ATS in the last four encounters. The ‘under’ is 9-3 in the last 12 head-to-head meetings.

When these teams squared off in Palo Alto last season, Stanford thumped UW by a 31-14 count to take the cash as a 15.5-point home ‘chalk.’ The 45 combined points slithered ‘under’ the 47.5-point total. Shaw’s team went to intermission with a 17-0 advantage and extended the lead to 31-7 by the end of the third quarter.

McCaffrey rushed 23 times for 109 yards and one TD while also making five catches for 112 yards and another score. Gaskin was UW’s only bright spot, rushing for 108 yards and one TD on 18 carries.

Stanford WR Francis Owusu is out with a concussion, but he has only made two catches for 15 yards so far this year. Both of the Cardinal’s starting CBs, Quenton Meeks and Alijah Holder, are out with unspecified injuries. Holder has nine tackles, one tackle for loss, one forced fumble and five passes broken up. Meeks has six tackles, one interception and two PBU.

Another Stanford starter was added to the injury list on Wednesday. Sophomore offensive guard Brandon Fanaika is ‘questionable’ with an undisclosed injury.

The ‘over’ is 3-1 overall for UW, going 2-1 in its home games. Meanwhile, Stanford has watched the ‘under’ go 3-0 with its combined scores averaging 37.0 points per game.

Stanford has a home game against Washington State on deck next week, while the Huskies will travel to Eugene to take on a slumping Oregon squad that could be 0-2 in league play if it loses in Pullman on Saturday.

Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- In the latest odds to win the College Football Playoff at the Westgate SuperBook, Washington and Stanford had future odds of 12/1 and 20/1, respectively. As for odds to win the Pac-12 at Sportsbook.ag, Washington was the +160 ‘chalk,’ while the Cardinal had the second-shortest odds (+180, risk $100 to win $180).

-- The Westgate had McCaffrey with the third-shortest odds to win the Heisman (10/1). Louisville’s Lamar Jackson was the huge favorite (4/11) and Ohio State QB J.T. Barrett had 8/1 odds.

-- There’s a second game on Friday’s card – Toledo at BYU. As of Thursday morning, most spots had the Cougars installed as 3.5-point home favorites with a total of 52. The Rockets are undefeated and have had two weeks to prep for their trip to Lavell Edwards Stadium in Provo. However, their three opponents have yet to register a victory over an FBS foe. Toledo beat up on Arkansas State, Maine and Fresno State On the flip side, BYU has lost three in a row after beating Arizona in Glendale by an 18-16 in the season opener. But the Cougars have lost those three contests by seven combined points, and those defeats have come at Utah, at home vs. UCLA and vs. West Virginia in Landover, MY.

-- BYU senior QB Taysom Hill might be on a short leash this week. You can’t measure Hill’s impact strictly by his passing numbers because he’s a poor man’s Tim Tebow with his bulldog running skills. Even with that said, it’s hard to ignore Hill’s abysmal 4/7 TD-INT ratio when Tanner Mangum is on the sidelines. When Hill was injured in Week 1 at Nebraska last year, the then-freshman Mangum led the Cougars to a comeback win. He proceeded to throw for 3,377 yards with a 23/10 TD-INT ratio the rest of the season. BYU running back Jamaal Williams, who was suspended for all of 2015, broke out for 169 rushing yards and a pair of TDs against the Mountaineers last week. BYU-Toledo will kick at 10:15 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

-- After struggling in a season-opening loss to Georgia in Atlanta at the Georgia Dome, North Carolina QB Mitch Trubisky is lighting up opponents. In four games this year, he has completed 74.5 percent of his passes for 1,306 yards and 10 TDs without an interception. Trubisky also has three rushing TDs.

-- Brian Kelly isn’t a happy camper after his team lost at home to Duke 38-35 to fall to 1-3 on the season. He took it out on defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder, who was fired on Monday. The Fighting Irish face Syracuse this week in East Rutherford, N.J.

-- Duke owns an 18-11-1 spread record as a home favorite during David Cutcliffe’s nine-year tenure. The Blue Devils, who are fresh off the upset win in South Bend as 19.5-point underdogs, host Virginia as 3.5-point home ‘chalk.’ They have won six of the last eight head-to-head meetings with the Cavaliers. Cutcliffe’s team will be playing without its leading returning tackler and special-teams ace DeVon Edwards, who went down with a season-ending injury against the Fighting Irish.

-- Iowa star WR Matt VandeBerg is out indefinitely after suffering a foot injury at Monday’s practice. VandeBerg paces the Hawkeyes in receptions (19), receiving yards (284) and TD catches (three). They host Northwestern as 13.5-point home favorites.

-- Rutgers dropped a 14-7 decision to Iowa at home last week and in the process lost two of its best players. Senior WR and special-teams ace Janarion Grant was lost to a season-ending ankle injury. Grant was the Scarlet Knights’ best offensive playmaker with 655 all-purpose yards and five TDs. He had four special-teams TDs in 2015 and had already scored on both a punt and kick return through four games this year. Grant was leading RU in catches (20) and receiving yards (210) and had also rushed 16 times for 138 yards and three TDs with an 8.6 YPC average. Making matters worse, senior DE Quanzell Lambert was also lost for the season with a leg injury. Lambert had 16 tackles, four QB hurries, 1.5 TFL’s and 0.5 sacks. He recorded 43 tackles, 2.5 sacks, five TFL’s, seven QB hurries and two PBU in 2015.

[StarDust Bum]

Louisville-Clemson headlines ACC's Week 5
September 29, 2016

Here are some things to watch in the Atlantic Coast Conference for Week 5:

GAME OF THE WEEK: No. 3 Louisville at No. 5 Clemson. For the second time in three weeks, a pair of top-10 Atlantic Division teams who have legitimate national championship hopes face each other. This one matches the league's top two Heisman Trophy contenders in Louisville's Lamar Jackson and Clemson's Deshaun Watson. The Cardinals, who routed Florida State two weeks ago, can gain some separation in the division race with what would be the biggest road win in school history. ''This is what we tell our players they come (to Louisville) for,'' coach Bobby Petrino said, ''to play in games like this.''

BEST MATCHUP: Wake Forest's defense vs. North Carolina State's offense. No ACC team completes a higher percentage of its passes than the Wolfpack. Behind Boise State transfer Ryan Finley, N.C. State connects on nearly 76 percent of its throws. ''I don't care how many screens you're throwing, 76 percent is impressive,'' Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson said. Up next is a test from a Demon Deacons defense that has been the strength of the team in recent years, allows just 16.5 points per game and is coming off a five-interception performance in a win at Indiana.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: Louisville's offense has been historically productive through four weeks. The Cardinals are only the fourth FBS team since 1920 to score at least 59 points in four straight games. Baylor's 2013 team is the only other one to score that many in the first four games of a season.

LONG SHOT: Maybe Syracuse will become the next ACC team to spring an upset on Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish are coming off a 38-35 loss to a Duke team as 20-point favorites, and now take on the Orange - 10-point underdogs - at Metlife Stadium in New Jersey. Syracuse QB Eric Dungey averages an ACC-best 341.6 yards passing - bad news for a Notre Dame team that fired defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder the day after the Duke loss.

IMPACT PLAYER: North Carolina QB Mitch Trubisky will look to keep rolling in a visit to No. 12 Florida State. Trubisky threw for career bests of 453 yards and five touchdowns in a come-from-behind victory over Pittsburgh, completed an ACC-record 30 consecutive passes over a two-week span and now will look to light up a Seminoles defense that has yet to hold an FBS opponent to fewer than 34 points.

[StarDust Bum]

Badgers looking for big win at Big House
September 29, 2016

Some things to watch in the Big Ten in Week 5 of the season:

GAME OF THE WEEK

No. 8 Wisconsin at No. 4 Michigan. It's the first time in 65 all-time meetings that these teams have played when both were in the top 10, and each will play with an eye on strengthening its resume for the College Football Playoff. Even after a convincing win at Michigan State last week, the Badgers believe they're due more national respect. That won't be an issue if they get a second straight strong road performance from redshirt freshman quarterback Alex Hornibrook. Michigan has scored 45 or more points in four straight games for the first time since 1947. The Badgers have allowed just three offensive touchdowns through four games.

BEST MATCHUP

Northwestern at Iowa. This game could determine each team's direction for the balance of the season. Northwestern, winner of 10 games in 2015, is 1-3 and coming off a home loss to Nebraska. The defending West Division champion Hawkeyes followed a loss to FCS North Dakota State with an uninspired performance in a win at Rutgers, and now they are reeling from the loss of top receiver Matt VandeBerg to a broken foot.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS

The Ohio State defense's nine interceptions are the Buckeyes' most through three games since 1942. Ohio State, which hosts Rutgers, is the only FBS team to not allow a rushing TD this season. ... Rutgers leads the nation in red zone defense, having allowed points on three of its opponents' eight trips inside the 20-yard line. ... Nebraska, which hosts Illinois, is a model of balance. The Cornhuskers average 242 yards rushing and 243 yards passing. ... Illinois' Hardy Nickerson is averaging 9.7 tackles to lead the Big Ten. ... Maryland's 123 points are second-most in program history through three games behind the 130 by the 1951 team. ... David Blough enters Purdue's game at Maryland looking to tie a program record with three consecutive 300-yard passing games. ... Saquon Barkley's 77 receiving yards against Michigan last week were the most by a Penn State running back since 2008. ... Minnesota, which visits Penn State, has 119 points through three games, its most since 2005.

LONG SHOT

Indiana is a seven-point underdog at home against Michigan State and has lost seven straight to the Spartans since last winning the Old Brass Spittoon in 2006. The Hoosiers probably would be unbeaten entering their Big Ten opener if Richard Lagow hadn't been intercepted five times in a home loss to Wake Forest last week. Michigan State is looking to bounce back from a 24-point loss to Wisconsin that was its worse at home since 2009.

PLAYER TO WATCH

Wisconsin LB T.J. Watt, younger brother of three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year and ex-Badger J.J. Watt, broke out with 2.5 sacks, 3.5 tackles for loss and a total of six stops last week against Michigan State. Another performance similar to that will make for a long afternoon for Michigan QB Wilton Speight.

[StarDust Bum]

Wisconsin kicker Gaglianone out for season after surgery
September 29, 2016

MADISON, Wis. (AP) Wisconsin kicker Rafael Gaglianone is out for the season after undergoing surgery for a back injury.

Gaglianone missed the Badgers' 30-6 win at Michigan State last Saturday due to his injury. The team said in a statement his condition appeared to improve Sunday but then worsened so he underwent surgery Thursday. No. 8 Wisconsin plays at No. 4 Michigan on Saturday.

The junior was off to a strong start this season, converting seven of eight attempts before being sidelined. He missed spring practice in 2015 due to a similar injury.

The Badgers say that since Gaglianone played in only three games, he's eligible to apply for a medical hardship waiver from the NCAA to play an additional season.

[StarDust Bum]

Gators ready to shake off hangovers
September 29, 2016

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) The Florida Gators have an opportunity Saturday to prove they can shake off not just one, but two ugly hangovers.

The 23rd-ranked Gators visit Vanderbilt on Saturday, a week after blowing a 21-point lead in being routed 38-28 by the Tennessee Volunteers. If any Gators need a reminder to focus on a team they've beaten nine of the past 10 seasons, coach Jim McElwain can point to Vanderbilt nearly ruining homecoming last year before Florida pulled out a 9-7 win clinching the Southeastern Conference Eastern Division title.

Safety Marcus Maye says the Gators have learned their humbling lesson and know they can't let that happen again.

''We know it takes four quarters, we can't get down on ourselves if we're down,'' Maye said. ''We can't relax if we're up. It's definitely a learning process.''

The Gators (3-1, 1-1) aren't giving up on defending their SEC East title this early in the season. Vanderbilt coach Derek Mason, who's known McElwain a long time, isn't expecting a team based on what's happened in the last two quarters played.

''Sometimes you find yourself in a landslide and you can't escape it, and when that happens it can be rough,'' Mason said. ''Coach McElwain's got to get that group to rebound, and he will. He's been doing this a long time.''

Mason's Commodores (2-2, 0-1) want to build on a 31-30 overtime win at Western Kentucky last week. And yes, they remember coming up short in the Swamp last November.

''To come so close and not come up with the win, it's unacceptable,'' Vanderbilt linebacker-safety Oren Burks said. ''There's something personal about this game.''

Here are some things to watch Saturday when the Gators visit Music City:

WAKE UP: Kickoff is at 11 a.m. local time, but McElwain is keeping his Gators on Eastern time to help them be ready for their earliest kickoff this season. McElwain has reason to worry about his Gators kicking off at noon after struggling in three such games last season.

''I don't know what it is with noon starts a year ago, we were FAU, Vanderbilt and the bowl game, which none of those results were very good,'' McElwain said. ''So I think let's talk about the obvious, I've got no problem with that. We've got to make sure we're ready to go play against a team that obviously has some weapons.''

STOPPING WEBB: Ralph Webb has been Vanderbilt's biggest offensive threat since getting on the field, and now the junior ranks second in the SEC averaging 118 yards per game. Webb leads the SEC with five TDs rushing, and now sophomore quarterback Kyle Shurmur is coming off his best game throwing the ball with a career-high 279 yards in rallying Vandy to a win last week.

DON'T LOOK AHEAD: The Gators can't dwell on last week's game, and they can't afford to look ahead either. LSU visits Gainesville on Oct. 8, giving Florida a chance to avenge last year's 35-28 loss. ''Just go out and focus on what we have to focus on,'' Maye said.

STINGY D: As bad as the Gators looked giving up five TDs in six possessions last week, they've been so good defensively that they hardly budged in the early rankings. Florida still leads the SEC averaging 4.25 sacks per game, which is fourth nationally. The Gators are the only team with five different players with at least two sacks, and they rank second in the SEC giving up just 76.5 yards rushing.

BALL SECURITY: The Gators have intercepted six passes in the past three games, and Vanderbilt has forced at least one turnover in each game this season. But the Commodores have protected the ball very well so far and lead the SEC in turnover differential at plus-5.

[StarDust Bum]

Top-10 matchup highlights Pac-12
September 29, 2016

A matchup between top-10 teams and a few games that could make or break teams' seasons highlight this week in Pac-12 football.

Here's what to look for:

GAME OF THE WEEK: No. 7 Stanford at No. 10 Washington. The weekend kicks off Friday night with a prime-time game between marquee teams. The Cardinal (3-0) have already passed two big tests, knocking off Southern California and UCLA in consecutive weeks. The Huskies breezed through their first three games against overmatched opponents before outlasting Arizona in overtime in their conference opener last week. Washington (4-0) has a talent-laden defense that could have as many as seven future NFL players, but they will be trying to stop arguably the best running back in the country in Christian McCaffrey. He had his way with the Huskies last season, racking up 300 all-purpose yards in the Cardinal's 31-14 win.

BEST MATCHUP: Arizona State at USC. The Trojans (1-3) may be off to their worst start since 2001, but there is still plenty of talent on this team and they're playing at home. Arizona State (4-0) has had its share of deficiencies - struggles on defense, slow starts - but keeps finding ways to win. The Sun Devils showed off their offensive explosiveness last week, scoring 31 points in the fourth quarter to rally for a 51-41 victory over California. The 31 points were more than 54 teams scored in their entire games last weekend.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: Utah's Mitch Wishnowsky is leading the nation in punting average at 52.1 yards per kick. ... Washington State is looking to beat Oregon in consecutive games for the first time since 2002-03. ... Arizona's Brandon Dawkins is ninth nationally with 130.3 yards rushing per game and is second among quarterbacks, behind Louisville's Lamar Jackson (131.5).

IMPACT PLAYER: Colorado QB Steven Montez. The Buffaloes appeared to be in trouble, having to face Oregon with quarterback Sefo Liufau out with an ankle injury. Montez filled in quite nicely, accounting for 448 yards of total offense while becoming the first player in school history with 300 yards passing and 100 rushing in the same game. Liufau is still not 100 percent, so Montez may get the call again this week against Oregon State.