The Bum's 2016 College Football Best Bets,Trends,Stat, News !!

[StarDust Bum]

Pac-12 Report - Week 4
September 21, 2016

2016 PAC-12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Arizona 2-1 0-0 0-3 1-2

Arizona State 3-0 0-0 2-1 2-1

California 2-1 0-0 2-1 3-0

Colorado 2-1 0-0 3-0 2-1

Oregon 2-1 0-0 0-2-1 1-2

Oregon State 1-1 0-0 1-1 0-2

Southern California 1-2 0-1 1-2 1-2

Stanford 2-0 1-0 2-0 0-2

UCLA 2-1 1-0 0-3 1-1-1

Utah 3-0 0-0 1-2 1-2

Washington 3-0 0-0 2-1 2-1

Washington State 1-2 0-0 2-1 1-2


Southern California at Utah (Fri. - FS1, 9:00 p.m. ET)
The Trojans head to Rice-Eccles in Salt Lake City trying to avoid a complete disaster to start their season. They were abused by Alabama, and pushed around by Stanford last weekend on 'The Farm'. They can keep their season afloat with a win over the 23rd-ranked team in the nation, but it won't be easy. Utah opened as a 1 1/2-point favorite and the line quickly climbed to three. Neither of these teams have been very good against the number lately, with USC 7-20 ATS in their past 27 away from home, and Utah 1-5 ATS in their past six at home. Both teams are also 1-5 ATS in their past six conference tilts. The 'under' might be the play in this one, going 9-3 in USC's past 12 road games and 10-4-1 ATS in their past 15 conference battles including last week. The under is 5-1 in Utah's past six home games, and 6-1 in the past seven for the Utes at home against a team with a losing road record.

Boise State at Oregon State (FOX Sports 1, 3:30 p.m.)
The Beavers of OSU host a good Boise State team which appears poised for a return to the spotlight after a couple of down years by their standards. The Beavers lost on the road to open their season in Minnesota, and came home after 16 days off to beat up on FCS Idaho State, 37-7. The 'under' has hit in both games for Oregon State. The 'under' is 2-0 in two games for Boise State, too, incuding a 31-28 win over Washington State two weeks ago. The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their past five non-conference games, although just 1-5 ATS in their past six against the Pac-12, including a non-cover against Washington State two weeks ago. The Beavs are 4-9 ATS in their past 13 outside of the conference, 7-19 ATS in their past 26 overall and 5-17 ATS in their past 22 at home.

Colorado at Oregon (Pac-12 Network, 5:30 p.m. ET)
Colorado keeps it on the road for a second straight weekend against a difficult opponent. They fired out to a lead last weekend in Ann Arbor, but ended up falling in the Big House by a 45-28 score. However, the Buffaloes have covered all three of their games to date. For Oregon, they tasted bitter defeat in Lincoln against a Nebraska team headed by former Oregon State leader Mike Riley. The Ducks are 14-3 ATS in their past 17 conference tilts, but will have to get by without one of their weapons, as Olympic hurdler and return man Devon Allen (knee) is done for the season with a torn anterior cruciate ligament. The Ducks are 2-8 ATS in their past 10 at home, while the Buffaloes are 4-1 ATS in their past five on the road. The favorite has cashed in five straight in this series, while the Buffs are 0-5 ATS in the past five meetings.

Stanford at UCLA (ABC, 8:00 p.m.)
The Cardinal head to the Rose Bowl as field goal favorites against the Bruins in a key Pac-12 battle. They beat L.A.'s other team, USC, by a 27-10 count last weekend. The Bruins have already lost in excruciating fashion this season, falling in overtime at Texas A&M in the season opener. They rebounded nicely with wins over UNLV and at BYU over the past two weeks. However, the Bruins have yet to cover in three tries. Stanford is 2-0 ATS in their two games this season and will be a popular choice for the public in their first foray from 'The Farm'. The 'under' is a perfect 2-0 for the Cardinal so far this season, too. Stanford has dominated in his series against the number, going 7-1 ATS in the past eight meetings and 7-3 ATS in their past 10 at UCLA. The favorite is also 6-2 ATS in the past eight, while the 'under' is 6-1 in the past seven meetings in Pasadena.

California at Arizona State (ESPN2, 10:00 p.m.)
The total for this game opener at 82 1/2, and they might be a little bit on the low side if each of these teams play to their capabilities on offense. Cal has scored 40 or more points in all three of their games, while allowing 31 or more points in each of their three games, including 44.0 PPG allowed over the past two. Needless to say, the 'over' is 3-0 in Cal's three games to date. Arizona State is averaging 48.0 PPG through three outings, including 68 against Texas Tech two weeks ago. The 'over' has hit in each of the past two for the Sun Devils. These sides met Nov. 28 last season, and it was Cal coming away with a 48-46 win in Berkeley. The home team is 11-5 ATS in the past 16 meetings in this series.

Washington at Arizona (Pac-12 Network, 10:30 p.m.)
The Huskies hit the road for the first time this season, and they hope to roll Arizona like they did in the last meeting on Halloween in 2015. The Huskies trick or treated all over the field against the Wildcats, coming away with a 49-3 victory. Arizona would like nothing more than to return the favor and derail a Washington team with legitimate playoff aspirations. The Wildcats could catch the Huskies peeking ahead to next week's home game in Seattle against Stanford, too. Arizona hasn't been very good at home lately, going 4-11 ATS in their past 15 on home turf while going 2-5 ATS in their past seven against winning teams. The Huskies are 7-3 ATS in their past 10 on the road, and 4-1 ATS in their past five against teams with a winning overall mark. Washington is 4-1 ATS in the past five in this series, but the home team is 7-1 ATS in the past eight with the favorite going 5-1 ATS in the past six.

Team on a bye
Washington State

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 4

Thursday, September 22

Clemson @ Georgia Tech

Game 303-304
September 22, 2016 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Clemson
103.578
Georgia Tech
86.981
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Clemson
by 16 1/2
63
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Clemson
by 9 1/2
57
Dunkel Pick:
Clemson
(-9 1/2); Over


Friday, September 23

USC @ Utah

Game 309-310
September 23, 2016 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
USC
98.082
Utah
103.197
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Utah
by 5
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Utah
by 3
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Utah
(-3); Over

Wyoming @ Eastern Michigan

Game 307-308
September 23, 2016 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Wyoming
72.552
Eastern Michigan
64.487
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Wyoming
by 8
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Wyoming
by 2 1/2
64
Dunkel Pick:
Wyoming
(-2 1/2); Under

TCU @ SMU

Game 305-306
September 23, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
TCU
102.239
SMU
76.463
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
TCU
by 26
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
TCU
by 20 1/2
63 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
TCU
(-20 1/2); Under




NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 4

Thursday’s games

Home team won last seven Clemson-Georgia Tech games; Tigers lost last five visits here, with last win at Tech in 2003. Jackets had only 71 rushing yards in LY’s loss at Clemson, after having 242+ in previous seven series games. Clemson won its two I-A games this year by 6 points each, with 19-13 win at Auburn; they’re 2-7 in last nine games as a road favorite. Tech ran for 289 yards in big win over Vanderbilt LW after struggling to beat BC in Ireland. Jackets are 6-6 as home underdogs under Johnson.

Friday’s games

TCU won nine of its last 10 games with SMU (4-3 vs spread in last seven); Horned Frogs won last four series games by average of 46-17. Mustangs are 2-8 in last 10 games as home underdog; they lost 40-13 at Baylor two weeks ago, its only game this year vs a good team. TCU plays Oklahoma next; they’re 3-4 vs spread when laying 20+ to SMU- this is local rivalry. Frogs are 4-12 vs spread in last 16 games as a road favorite

Eastern Michigan is 2-1 this year after going 7-41 the last four years; EMU (+13) went to Laramie, upset Wyoming 48-29 in LY’s meeting; Eagles had 352 TY at half, lading 38-14 Cowboys allowed 741 passing yards in its two games against I-A teams; they’re favoried on road for first time in three years (3-6 as road fave since 2007). EMU is 6-12 in last 18 games as a home underdog.

USC is 1-2 and switching to freshman QB Darnold, who makes his first start here. Trojans won four of last five games vs Utah, going 1-1 in last two visits here; favorites covered four of last five series games. USC is 2-8 in its last ten games as a road underdog. Utah beat rival BYU 20-19 despite being -2 in turnovers; Utes lost two good players LW, still won easily at San Jose. Utes are 2-6 in last eight games as a home favorite.

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 4
September 21, 2016


THURSDAY, SEPT. 22

Matchup Skinny Edge

CLEMSON at GEORGIA TECH...GT 2-10 vs. spread last 21 on board since early 2015. Paul Johnson was 6-0 as dog in 2014 but only 1-2 in role LY. Dabo no covers first two TY and 2-6 last 8 vs. line in reg season, also 2-7 as visiting chalk since 2014.
Slight to Georgia Tech, based on extended trends.

FRIDAY, SEPT. 23

Matchup Skinny Edge

TCU at SMU...Metroplex war! Patterson only 2-5 last 7 vs. line against SMU, and TCU just 4-12 as visiting chalk since 2011. Frogs are 10-5 as DD chalk since 2014, however.
Slight to SMU, based on series trends.

WYOMING at EASTERN MICHIGAN...Rare revenge against EMU after Eagles won in Laramie LY! Not much home edge in Ypsilanti, as EMU 1-5 vs. line as host LY, and 13-30 vs. number at Rynearson since 2008! Bohl 6-4 vs. line last 10 away.
Wyoming, based on extended EMU home negatives.

SOUTHERN CAL at UTAH...Home team has covered all five meetings since Utes entered Pac in 2011. Trojans no covers last five away from Coliseum and 3-11 last 14 away from home. SC no covers last six as dog.
Slight Utah, based on series home and team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

USC at Utah
September 21, 2016

When I wrote my column about the 14 coaching changes at FBS programs going into the 2016 campaign, I ranked Southern Cal’s hire of Clay Helton at a nearly last-place No. 13. To date, I haven’t seen anything to deter that notion.

USC (1-2 straight up, 1-2 against the spread) is off to a dreadful start and now has to go on the road on a short week to face Utah on Friday night at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City. As of Tuesday, most books had Utah (3-0 SU, ATS) installed as a three-point home favorite with a total of 46.5 points. The Trojans were +135 on the money line at most spots (risk $100 to win $135).

USC is off a 27-10 loss at Stanford as a 7.5-point underdog. The 37 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 48.5-point total. Max Browne completed 18-of-28 passes for 191 yards, but he was yanked in favor of redshirt freshman Sam Darnold in the second half. Darnold connected on 5-of-7 throws for 45 yards without a touchdown pass and one interception.

Stanford raced out to a 17-3 advantage at intermission behind the play of All-American RB Christian McCaffrey, who finished with 260 all-purpose yards. USC responded with a nine-play, 75-yard drive capped by a one-yard TD run from Ronald Jones to trim the deficit to seven.

However, the Trojans would get no closer. They committed seven of their eight penalties in the first half to stymie otherwise successful drives. Five of those flags were for false starts. Jones and Justin Davis both rushed for 63 yards apiece. JuJu Smith-Schuster, a second-team All-American in 2015, was limited to just three receptions for 34 yards.

For the season, Browne has connected on 55-of-87 passes (63.2%) for 474 yards with a 2/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The true junior who is a former five-star recruit had a pair of TD passes in Week 2 when USC thumped Utah State by a 45-7 count as a 16.5-point home favorite. Darnold also saw playing time against the Aggies and it wasn’t just snaps at garbage time.

Darnold found Deontay Burnett for a 13-yard scoring strike to push the Trojans’ lead to 14-0 over Utah State early in the third quarter. He also had a 15-yard TD pass to Smith-Schuster early in the fourth quarter. For the year, Darnold has completed 14-of-22 attempts (63.6%) for 136 yards with a 2/1 TD-INT ratio. Helton has decided to give Darnold his first career start at Utah.

This is the third time USC has had to travel in a four-week stretch. It took a 52-6 shellacking from top-ranked Alabama in the season opener at Jerry World in Arlington, TX. The 1-2 start has Helton now sporting a 7-6 record as a head coach. In four road underdog spots on Helton’s watch, the Trojans are 0-4 both SU and ATS with double-digit defeats in each situation.

The offense has to find more touches for Smith-Schuster, who has only 11 receptions for 99 yards and two TDs. He had 89 catches for 1,454 yards and 10 TDs last season. The offensive line was touted as one of the best in the country coming into the year, but Justin Davis’s team-high 135 rushing yards have come at a meager 3.6 yards-per-carry average.

The USC offense is averaging only 323.0 yards per game, which ranks No. 114 among FBS teams. The Troajns’ 20.3 points-per-game average ranks No. 109.

Utah has collected wins vs. Southern Utah (24-0), vs. BYU (20-19) and at San Jose State (34-17). Kyle Whittingham’s squad covered the number as 13.5-point road favorites in the win over the Spartans. The 51 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 46-point tally thanks to a 46-yard TD pass for San Jose State with 3:45 remaining in the fourth quarter.

Troy Williams completed 20-of-28 passes for 257 yards with one TD and one interception. Tim Patrick had six receptions for 121 yards and one TD, while Cory Butler-Byrd snared five balls for 66 yards. Zach Moss rushed for 95 yards and one TD on 12 attempts, while Armand Shyne ran for 92 yards and one score on 12 carries. Troy McCormick added 61 rushing yards on just seven totes, including a 16-yard TD scamper that put the Utes ahead to stay at 13-10 early in the second quarter.

Utah’s defense smothered the San Jose State ground attack, limiting the Spartans to 56 rushing yards on 32 carries for a 1.8 YPC average. Junior safety Marcus Williams, the team’s leading returning tackler who had 66 stops and five interceptions on his way to earning first-team All Pac-12 honors in 2015, had six tackles and one interception. Senior DE Hunter Dimick had five tackles and two sacks to bring his career sack total to 18.

Utah’s defense was playing without junior DE Kylie Fitts for the first time against San Jose State. Fitts sustained a season-ending injury in the victory over BYU. He already had four tackles, three tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks through two games. The transfer from UCLA saw his first playing time for the Utes last season when he tallied 41 tackles, seven sacks, one TFL and 10 passes broken up. Also in the injury front, the Utes’ leading returning rusher Joe Williams chose to retire last week. Williams rushed for 477 yards and three TDs in ’15.

Utah currently ranks 13th in the nation in total defense, holding foes to 263.7 yards per game. The Utes are 12th in scoring ‘D,’ giving up only 12.0 PPG.

Williams, the prized juco signee who began his career at Washington, threw three interceptions in the 20-19 win over BYU. The defense picked him up, however, making a stop on the Cougars’ two-point conversion attempt with 18 seconds remaining. Junior LB Sunia Tauteoli was the hero with a pair of interceptions, including a 41-yard pick-six on Taysom Hill in the first half.

For the season, Williams has completed 54-of-86 passes (62.8%) for 723 yards with a 4/4 TD-INT ratio. Patrick has been his favorite target, hauling in 14 receptions for 285 yards and four TDs. McCormick has rushed for a team-best 178 yards and two TDs on 29 carries for a 6.1 YPC average. Moss (6.4 YPC) and Shyne (5.5 YPC) have rushed for 153 and 111 yards, respectively.

Utah is 2-6 in its last eight games as a home favorite, but it is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 outings as single-digit home ‘chalk.’ This is the Pac-12 opener for the Utes, who have a road game at California on deck in Week 5.

When these teams met last year The Coliseum, USC captured a 42-24 win as a 4.5-point home favorite. Jones rushed for 73 yards and one TD, while Smith-Schuster had eight catches for 143 yards and one TD. Cameron Smith, the Pac-12 Freshman Defensive Player of the Year and a second-team All Pac-12 selection, had three interceptions for 122 return yards, including a 54-yard pick-six. The ‘under’ had gone 5-1 in the six previous head-to-head meetings, but the 66 combined points soared ‘over’ the 57-point total.

Since Utah joined the Pac-12 in 2011, USC has won four of five encounters except for the 2014 game in Salt Lake City, where the Utes won a 24-21 decision as one-point home underdogs.

The ‘under’ is 2-1 overall for USC, 1-0 in its lone true road assignment. Meanwhile, Utah has seen the ‘under’ go 2-1, cashing in both of its home contests.

USC won’t have two starters and could be without another one. OG Toa Lobendahn is out for the season with a knee injury, while LB Osa Masina has been suspended for the rest of the year. DT Noah Jefferson is listed as ‘questionable’ with a shoulder injury.

Two starters for Utah, senior CB Dominique Hatfield and WR Tyrone Smith, both missed the San Jose State game with undisclosed injuries and remain ‘questionable’ this week. Hatfield had four interceptions in ’15, while Smith had 18 catches for 193 yards.

Kickoff is scheduled for Fox Sports 1 at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- There are two other games on tap for Friday night. Southern Methodist is poised to host TCU at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. As of early Wednesday, most books had the Horned Frogs listed as 21-point road favorites with a total of 63.5 points. Gary Patterson’s team is 2-1 SU but winless for our purposes with a 0-3 ATS mark. TCU failed to cover in last week’s 41-20 home win over Iowa State as a 24.5-point home favorite. ISU scored 10 points in the final 6:41 to hit the backdoor cover for its supporters. The ‘over’ improved to 3-0 for the Frogs when the 61 combined points stretched ‘over’ the 60.5-point total thanks to a 30-yard field goal by the Cyclones with 1:29 remaining.

-- TCU’s new starting QB Kenny Hill, a transfer from Texas A&M who at one point in late September of 2014 was considered the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, has rushed for 166 yards and six TD while averaging 6.1 YPC. Hill, the Dallas Southlake Carroll High School product, has completed 65.2 percent of his passes for 1,035 with a 4/3 TD-INT ratio.

-- TCU has limped to a 4-12 spread record in its last 16 games as a road favorite.

-- SMU (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) has wins at North Texas (34-21) and vs. Liberty (29-14). In the Mustangs’ lone loss at Baylor (40-13) in Week 2, the game was tied at 6-6 at halftime. The Bears pulled away to win easily in the second half, but they failed to cover as 34.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Chad Morris’s squad lost its starting QB Matt Davis to a season-ending ACL tear following the season opener. Davis, who had a 16/7 TD-INT ratio last year, threw a pair of TD passes and one interception against the Mean Green. Redshirt freshman Ben Hicks has taken over as the starter, but he’s been intercepted five times compared to two TD passes in his two starts.

-- SMU is 1-3 ATS as a home underdog on Morris’s watch to date.

-- In the other Friday game, Wyoming makes a long trip on a short week to take on Eastern Michigan (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) in Ypsilanti at 7:30 p.m. Eastern on the CBS Sports College Network. As of early Wednesday, the Eagles were three-point home underdogs, while the total was at 63. During Chris Creighton’s three-year tenure at Eastern Michigan, it has compiled a 3-6 spread record in nine games as a home ‘dog. The Eagles bounced back from a 61-21 loss at Missouri to win 37-19 at Charlotte last weekend as 1.5-point road favorites.

-- Wyoming (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) is led by junior RB Brian Hill, a second-team All Mtn. West selection last year when he rushed for 1,631 yards and six TDs while averaging 5.8 YPC. Hill has run for 381 yards and five TDs through the first three games this season. The Cowboys are in their first road ‘chalk’ spot of Craig Bohl’s three-year tenure in this contest.

-- The following teams are 3-0 ATS: Army, Central Michigan, Louisville, Miami, Ohio State, South Florida, Texas A&M, Toledo, Western Michigan, Ball State, Colorado, SMU, BYU and ULM. Stanford is 2-0 ATS, while Navy, Nebraska and Tulane are 2-0-1 versus the number.

-- Texas Tech junior QB Patrick Mahomes leads the nation with 1,493 passing yards. Who is second in the country? That would be Cal’s Davis Webb (1,359), a transfer from Texas Tech. Mahomes and Webb are also 1-2 in the nation in TD passes with 14 and 13, respectively. Webb’s favorite target Chad Hansen paces the country in receiving yards with 546.

-- New Mexico State RB Larry Rose is finally set to make his season debut Saturday at Troy. Rose, the Sun Belt’s Offensive Player of the Year last season when he rushed for 1,651 yards and 14 TDs while averaging 6.9 YPC, has recovering from sports hernia surgery. He also had 30 catches for 283 yards and two TDs in ’15.

-- Colorado LB Derek McCartney is done for the year with a torn ACL. McCartney had 49 tackles, five sacks, 6.5 TFL’s and one interception last season.

-- Oregon starting OT Tyrell Crosby is out for the season with an undisclosed injury. The junior had 24 career starts under his belt. The Ducks will also be without speedy WR Devon Allen for the rest of the season.

-- How fun would it be to drink beers with Jerome from Birmingham from the Finebaum Show? Sign me up.

[StarDust Bum]

SATURDAY, SEPT. 24

Matchup Skinny Edge

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at VIRGINIA...If CMU chalk note 8-1 road in role as visitor since 2012! Chips 13-4 last 17 on board since late 2014. If ‘Hoos a dog note 14-7 mark in role for Bronco Mendenhall since 2011 at BYU. Cavs were 10-4 vs. line past two seasons at home though Bronco lost opener TY.
Slight to Central Michigan, based on team trends.

BALL STATE at FLORIDA ATLANTIC... Ball 2-0 vs. line TY, both as road dog for Neu, upping mark to 24-11 since 2009 (including 1-4 LY). Cards 7-3 vs. spread last 10 as non-MAC visitor. Owls no covers first three TY and now on 3-10-1 spread skid since early 2015.
Ball State, based on team trends.

UCF at FIU...Ron Turner won in upset LY in opener 17-15. FIU on 1-6-1 spread skid since late LY. Turner now just 6-10 as home dog since taking over in 2013.
UCF, based on team trends.

ARMY at BUFFALO...West Point now 6-0-2 vs. line away from Michie since LY. Leipold only 5-9 vs. spread since taking over Bulls LY.
Army, based on team trends.

EAST CAROLINA at VIRGINIA TECH... ECU beat Beamer SU past two years and has covered last three years vs. VPI. Pirates 6-2 vs. line in series since 2006. ECU 8-4 as dog since 2013. Fuente 1-0 vs. line at home TY but Hokies were just 8-17-1 as home chalk for Beamer from 2011-15.
ECU, based on team trends.

SYRACUSE at UCONN...Note UConn 0-8 chalk mark for Diaco since 2014 and 0-14 in role back to 2012 and Pasqualoni era! Dino 10-5-1 vs. line since LY with BGSU & Cuse.
Syracuse, based on UConn spread woes.

PENN STATE at MICHIGAN...James Franklin 0-6 SU last six away and 2-9 vs. number away from Happy Valley under Franklin. Franklin 0-2 SU and vs. line against Michigan. Harbaugh 2-1 vs. line TY and now 6-3 as Ann Arbor chalk since LY.
Michigan, based on team and series trends.

IOWA at RUTGERS...Ferentz 5-0 vs. line as visitor LY and 9-0 as visiting chalk since 2013! ‘Gers 2-6 as dog since LY (0-1 for Ash).
Iowa, based on team trends.

WAKE FOREST at INDIANA...Wake on 7-3 spread uptick since mid 2015 and has covered last three on road, all as dog. Deacs also “under” 5-1 last six since late 2014. Hoosiers now 2-4 last six as home chalk since late 2013.
Wake Forest and slight to “under”, based on recent team and “totals” trends.

SAN JOSE STATE at IOWA STATE...Spartans not traveling well lately, 0-1 vs. line away TY, 1-10 in role since 2014 for Caragher. SJSU also 2-14 overall as dog since 2014. Matt Campbell has started slow at ISU but Cyclones were 2-0 as home chalk LY and Campbell was 11-3-1 last 15 on line with Toledo.
Iowa State, based on SJSU negatives.

MISSISSIPPI STATE at UMASS...Dan Mullen 9-5 vs. line as visiting chalk since 2009. Mullen on 22-11-1 spread run since late 2013.
Mississippi State, based on team trends.

COLORADO STATE at MINNESOTA...Bobo 0-2-1 as dog away from home with Rams, also 5-8 last 13 overall vs. spread. CSU 2-5 last seven as dog dating to late 2014. Gophers 8-1 “over” last nine in reg season though only 2-4 last six as home chalk.
Slight to Minnesota and "over" based on team and "totals" trends.

BYU vs. WEST VIRGINIA (at FedEx Field, Landover, Md)...Cougs 11-5 vs. line since last season, 14-7 as dog since 2011. WVU 12-22 as chalk since 2012 (1-1 TY).
BYU, based on team trends.

NORTH TEXAS at RICE...Rice has won and covered last two meetings but Owls 3-8-1 spread skid since early 2015. Note Bailiff 11-2-1 as chalk since 2014. Mean Green 3-11 as road dog since 2014.
Rice, based on team and recent series trends.

APP STATE at AKRON...Bowden just 3-9 as home dog since 2012. App 8-1 vs. line last nine as visitor.
App State, based on team trends.

GEORGIA SOUTHERN at WESTERN MICHIGAN... Eagles 6-2 vs. line away from Statesboro since 2015. WMU 19-10 vs. line since 2014, though only 2-3 as Waldo chalk since LY.
Slight to Georgia Southern, based on team trends.

CHARLOTTE at TEMPLE... 49ers 3-8-2 as dog since LY. Rhule 13-5 last 18 vs. line, 5-3 last 14 laying DD.
Temple, based on team trends.

PITT at NORTH CAROLINA...Heels have won and covered last three years in series. Panthers just 6-12 last 18 vs. spread (6-11 for Narduzzi). Heels 9-4 as chalk since LY, 6-2 laying points at Chapel Hill.
North Carolina, based on new trends.

SOUTHERN MISS at UTEP...USM 11-6 vs. line since LY and 6-2 vs. spread as visitor since 2015. Golden Eagles 7-1 as chalk since LY, though Miners 9-3 vs. spread at Sun Bowl since 2014.
Slight to USM, based on team trends.

OKLAHOMA STATE at BAYLOR...OSU has covered 2 of last 3 meetings but did lose and no cover at home LY vs. Bears. Gundy only 8-7 as dog since 2012. Baylor 1-8 last 9 vs. spread in reg season (0-3 for Grobe) and only 2-6 as Waco chalk since 2015.
Oklahoma State, based on recent trends.

LOUISVILLE at MARSHALL...Cards 1-1- vs. line last two years after Noles. Petrino 7-3 last 10 vs. line as visitor, and has covered last five sicne late 2015. Herd rare dog, 1-1-1 in role since 2-13, but 13-5-1 vs. points at Huntington since 2013 and 10-4-3 last 17 against points vs. non-CUSA.
Slight to Louisville, based on recent trends.

KENT STATE at ALABAMA...Nick vs. alma mater! Tide however only 2-5-1 as home chalk since LY. But Golden Flashes just 4-6-1 as dog since LY and 2-5 last 7 as DD dog.
Slight to Alabama, based on team trends.

DUKE at NOTRE DAME...Cutcliffe 12-6 last 18 as dog, 9-3 last 12 vs. number away. Blue Devils haven’t been a DD dog since 2013. Brian Kelly 5-2 as South Bend chalk since LY but only 5-12 last 17 as DD chalk.
Duke, based on team trends.

NEW MEXICO STATE at TROY...Ags improved to 4-2 as road dog LY (0-1 TY) after 4-13-1 mark in role 2012-14. Troy won big 52-7 LY at Las Cruces. Trojans 0-2-1 laying DD since 2014.
Slight to NMSU, based on team trends.

VANDERBILT at WESTERN KENTUCKY...Derek Mason 4-3 last 7 vs. spread non-SEC, also 11-8 as dog since 2014. Dores are 22-14 as dog since 2011. WKU 13-7-1 last 21 on board since late 2014.
Slight to Vandy, based on team trends.

WISCONSIN at MICHIGAN STATE...Teams haven’t met since 2012. Badgers 5-1 as dog since 2014 (1-0 TY; 3-1 for Chryst). Dantonio covered last three as home chalk LY but just 11-17 as East Lansing favorite since 2012 (0-6 mark that year).
Slight to Wisconsin, based on team trends.

ARKANSAS vs. TEXAS A&M (at Jerry Jones AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX)...Ags have won last four SU in series (last two in OT) that commenced before A&M moved into SEC. If dog note Ags 0-4 in role LY. Bielema has covered five straight away from home.
Slight to Texas A&M, based on recent series trends.

NEVADA at PURDUE...Purdue 2-0 as home chalk since LY, both vs. FCS. Otherwise no covers last four vs. non-Big Ten BCS foes. Pack was 5-0 as dog away from home LY before narrow non-cover at ND.
Nevada, based on team trends.

UL-LAFAYETTE at TULANE...Willie Fritz 10-4 vs. line since LY at Ga So. ULL on 4-8-1 spread skid, 1-3-1 last five away.
Tulane, based on recent trends.

COLORADO at OREGON...Ducks have won and covered big all five meetings since Buffs entered Pac-12 in 2011. Though OU 0-2 vs. line at home TY and 2-7 at Eugene vs. spread since 2015. MacIntyre 10-5-1 vs. line since LY and 6-2 last eight as dog.
Slight to Colorado, based on recent trends.

WASHINGTON at ARIZONA...U-Dub destroyed Cats 49-3 LY. Huskies have won and covered 5 of 6 since late LY, and U-Dub has covered last three in series. Rich-Rod only 2-6 last 8 as dog.
Washington, based on team and series trends.

GEORGIA at OLE MISS...Richt was only 5-11-1 as dog from 2009-15, and UGa only 6-8 vs. spread last 13 away. Freeze 44-22-1 vs. line since 2011 and 34-20-1 with Ole Miss sicne 2012.
Slight to Ole Miss, based on team trends.

MIAMI-OHIO at CINCINNATI...Old rivalry between these nearby foes. Miami hasn’t beaten Cincy since 2005 but has covered last three meetings. Chuck Martin 9-4 as road dog since 2014 with RedHawks. Tuberville 3-6 last 9 as chalk.
Miami-Ohio, based on team and recent series trends.

LA TECH at MIDDLE TENNESSEE...Skip rolled 45-16 LY and if dog in this one note 7-1 mark in role on road since 2014. Skip 19-11 vs. points overall since 2014. MTSU is 16-3 SU at Murfreesboro since 2013.
La Tech, based on team trends.

UTSA at OLD DOMINION...If ODU chalk note 1-6 mark in role since 2014. Though Monarchs did win at Alamodome LY.
UTSA, based on team trends.

SOUTH CAROLINA at KENTUCKY...Stoops has covered last three vs. Cocks and won last two outright. Muschamp 9-4-1 as dog e since 2012 (Gators & SC). Stoops on 1-9 spread skid and 2-7-1 vs. line last 10 as SEC host.
South Carolina, based on team trends.

FLORIDA at TENNESSEE...Still the bogey game for Vols, losers by 1 each of last two seasons vs. Gators. Florida has won last 11 SU vs. UT! McElwain 9-5 last 14 as dog. Butch Jones 7-11 as home chalk with Vols and UT 8-18 last 26 in role dating to 2012.
Florida, based on team and series trends.

BOWLING GREEN at MEMPHIS...Jinks 0-3 vs. line at BGSU, which has yet to cover in 4 since Dino left before bowl LY. Falcs 8-2 last 10 vs. line as visitor but 0-1 TY and be careful with the Babers marks.
Memphis, based on recent BG woes.

FLORIDA STATE at SOUTH FLORIDA...Jimbo could not cover vs. USF LY and only 4-7 as chalk away from home since 2014. Bulls on 11-1 reg season spread surge and 5-2 last seven as dog. USF covers last 8 at Tampa!
USF, based on team trends.

NEBRASKA at NORTHWESTERN...Huskers have won last four SU in series and crushed Cats last two years. Fitz just 7-16 vs. spread since 2013 at Evanston, 3-4 last seven as home dog. Huskers 5-1-1 vs. line last seven since late LY. Riley 1-2 as road chalk LY.
Nebraska, based on recent series trends and Cat home negatives.

HOUSTON at TEXAS STATE...Bobcats were 6-3 as home dog 2012-15. UH 11-5 vs. line since LY, 6-1 vs. line away from home.
Houston, based on recent trends.

LSU at AUBURN...Take the Tigers! Auburn 3-1 vs. line last four meetings, the loss coming LY. Miles 0-5 vs. spread as visitor since 2015 (counts Wiscy as visitor in Green Bay). LSU 5-10-1 last 16 vs. line. But Malzahn still just 5-16 last 21 on board. If dog note Malzahn 3-7 since 2014 after 5-0 in 2013 debut. Lots of negatives here.
Slight to Auburn, based on LSU negatives.

BOISE STATE at OREGON STATE...Boise 9-4 last 13 as chalk away from home but most of that was vs. non-Power 5 opposition. Broncos no covers last two vs. Pac-12 since LY. Beavs might be improved TY and 1-0 vs. line but just 5-19 vs. line past two seasons. .
Slight to Boise State, based on recent trends.

AIR FORCE at UTAH STATE...Force on 14-7-1 spread uptick since early 2014, beat USU at Falc Stadium LY. If Utags dog note 5-9 mark in role since 2013.
Air Force, based on recent trends.

IDAHO at UNLV...UNLV 3-0 as home chalk since LY for Sanchez. Idaho no covers first three TY.
UNLV, based on recent trends.

CAL at ARIZONA STATE...Dykes 7-3 as road dog since 2014, 8-4 last 12 as visitor. Sun Devils just 6-7 last 13 as Tempe chalk.
Cal, based on team trends.

STANFORD at UCLA...Tree has brutalized Bruins lately, won last 8 SU and 7-1 vs. line in those games. Tree has won and covered last three at Pasadena vs. Bruins by 24.7 ppg. Mora 0-4 as dog since 2014. Tree 8-2 vs. line last 10 away from Farm.
Stanford, based on series and team trends.

TULSA at FRESNO STATE...FSU 3-13 vs. line last 16 vs. non-MW, covers only vs. FCS and Idaho. Fresno 6-15 last 21 as dog, 8-11 last 19 vs. line at home. Tulsa covered all 7 away form home LY (7-1 last 8 after Ohio State).
Tulsa, based on team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

*NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 4*


*Thurs – Sept. 22

Clemson at Georgia Tech, 7:30 PM ET*
Clemson: 20-8 ATS after a win by 35 or more points
Georgia Tech: 19-8 UNDER after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games


*Fri – Sept. 23

TCU at SMU, 8:00 PM ET*
TCU: 69-46 ATS off a win against a conference rival
SMU: 5-15 ATS in home games after playing 2 straight non-conference games

*Wyoming at E Michigan, 7:30 PM ET*
Wyoming: 24-8 ATS after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game
E Michigan: 1-9 ATS after a win by 17 or more points

*USC at Utah, 9:00 PM ET*
USC: 55-36 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses
Utah: 8-1 UNDER in home lined games
***************

[StarDust Bum]

Clemson faces Georgia Tech "trap" game
September 21, 2016

ATLANTA (AP) With an ACC showdown looming, Clemson is still lacking the sort of performance that would show it's capable of making another run at the national championship.

The No. 5 Tigers get a chance to sharpen their credentials when they take on unbeaten Georgia Tech in a prime-time game Thursday.

This would be a good time for Clemson (3-0) to step up its game, facing a team it hasn't beaten on the road since 2003 and with an even bigger contest coming up on the first day of October against third-ranked Louisville.

''All I know is we've been treating every game as if it was the national championship,'' running back Wayne Gallman said.

It sure hasn't looked that way.

Clemson went down to the final play at Auburn before holding on for a 19-13 victory, and the Tigers had a surprisingly tough time in a 30-24 win over Troy. Last week, they blew out lower-division and South Carolina State 59-0 in what looked more like a scrimmage.

Georgia Tech (3-0, 1-0 Atlantic Coast Conference) has yet to face a team of Clemson's caliber, but the Yellow Jackets should get a boost of confidence from their success at Bobby Dodd Stadium. They've won five straight over the Tigers in Atlanta, including a 28-6 victory two years ago when quarterback Deshaun Watson went down with a knee injury.

''We haven't won down there in a while,'' Gallman said. ''It's time to change that.''

Watson, who grew up in the sprawling suburbs north of Atlanta, bounced back from his injury to become one of college football's most dynamic players last season, leading Clemson to 14 straight wins before a heartbreaking 45-40 loss to Alabama in the national championship games.

Then there's Georgia Tech, which struggled to a 3-9 mark a year ago.

The Yellow Jackets are eager to show they've turned things around. A victory over one of the nation's top teams would certainly accomplish that.

''I look at this as a great opportunity,'' coach Paul Johnson said. ''If we play as hard as we can and execute, we'll be in the game. We can play with them. We've played with them before.''

---

Some other things to watch for when Clemson takes on Georgia Tech:

FAST VS. SLOW: Clemson runs a hurry-up scheme that is designed to keep defenses off balance and get as many plays as possible for an offense with a plethora of dynamic weapons. The Tigers are averaging about 80 plays per game - nearly 20 more than Georgia Tech's run-oriented scheme. The Yellow Jackets will do their best to slow the game to a crawl. ''The offense needs to be able to run the ball consistently, control the clock and keep them off the field,'' Johnson said.

NEW QUARTERBACK? If Clemson shuts down Georgia Tech's triple-option offense, give credit to Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables - and not just because of what he does on game day. Venables likes running the scout team and acting the part of Yellow Jackets quarterback Justin Thomas, no easy task given the uniqueness of the triple-option offense. Linebacker Ben Boulware said seeing Venables on the opposite side of the line usually means a couple of hard shoves. ''I think he likes when we do that,'' Boulware said.

THURSDAY NIGHT LIGHTS: Georgia Tech has struggled to sell out 55,000-seat Bobby Dodd Stadium, which often diminishes the team's home-field advantage. But the place comes alive under the lights, creating the sort of atmosphere that has produced some of the Yellow Jackets' most memorable performances. None more so than last year's stunning 22-16 upset of Florida State, which was Tech's lone ACC win.

HANDS ON THE BALL: Clemson will be without clutch receiver Hunter Renfrow, who had TD catches in the first two games. He is out for about a month with a broken hand. The receiving corps played well last Saturday, but there were eight drops the previous week against Troy. The Tigers can't afford that sort of sloppy play.

BAD MEMORIES: Clemson co-offensive coordinator Tony Elliott has his share of memories, good and bad, at Georgia Tech. He caught a 9-yard TD pass from Charlie Whitehurst in 2003 to put Clemson ahead 10-0 in a game it would go on to win 39-3 - its last victory against the Yellow Jackets in Atlanta. Don't mention the 2001 game, though, even though it was also a Clemson win. Elliott went down with a broken wrist covering the opening kickoff.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Thursday, September 22

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NCAAF Game of the Day: Clemson at Georgia Tech
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Clemson has won 18-consecutive regular season games, but are just 8-10 ATS in those games.

No. 3 Clemson Tigers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+9.5, 58)

Third-ranked Clemson survived two weeks of underachieving before returning to its dominant ways last week, and the Tigers can’t afford another subpar effort when they travel to Georgia Tech for an ACC showdown Thursday night. The Tigers put their 18-game regular-season winning streak on the line as they aim for their first victory at Georgia Tech since 2003.

No coach relishes a short week – Clemson coach Dabo Swinney and Georgia Tech’s Paul Johnson lamented the lost days of preparation – but it could be especially tough on the Tigers as they prepare to face the Yellow Jackets’ option attack. “It’s a difficult turnaround for us – and them. It’s hard for both teams to get ready really in three days,” Swinney told reporters. “Georgia Tech is always an incredibly difficult team to prepare for, but even more so when you’ve got a short week to get ready.” Clemson rolled up 537 total yards in a 43-24 home victory over Georgia Tech a year ago, a game the Yellow Jackets would like to forget. “We don’t talk about last year, other than the fact that they beat the fool out of us,” Johnson told reporters. “We just have to play better. I think we’re a little better than we were a year ago. We’ll see if they’re better or the same.”

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Clemson opened this game as double digit road faves at -10, but early action came in on Georgia Tech, moving the line to Clemson -8.5. Since then the line has bounced back to the Tigers, sitting currently at Clemson -9.5.

Meanwhile, the total opened at 57 and has been bet up one point to sit at the current number of 58. Check out the complete line history here.

INJURY REPORT:

Clemson - DE A. Bryant (questionable Thursday, foot), LB B. Boulware (questionable Thursday, ankle), CB A. Baker (questionable Thursday, knee), DB B. Dawkins (questionable Thursday, knee), OL C. Reeves (questionable Thursday, knee), WR H. Renfrow (out Thursday, hand).

Georgia Tech - DL J. Woods (questionable Thursday, upper body), OL T. Klock (questionable Thursday, ankle), OL J. Stickler (questionable Thursday, undisclosed).

WEATHER REPORT: Weather shouldn't be much of a factor for this ACC showdown. The forecast is calling for partly cloudy skies, with a very slight 12 percent chane of rain and a five to six mile per hour wind blowing across the field from east to west.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney will have his hands full trying to keep his Tigers focused on Georgia Tech Thursday night with a showdown with Louisville on tap next week. Meanwhile, the Yellow Jackets hope to improve on a dismal 1-3 SU and ATS record in their last four games in this series. Swinney will remind his team that Clemson’s last road loss was here in a 28-6 defeat in 2014."

ABOUT CLEMSON (3-0, 1-2 ATS, 0-3 O/U): After squeaking out six-point wins in their first two games, the Tigers routed South Carolina State 59-0 last week and put up predictably impressive numbers in the process, outgaining the Bulldogs 555-102. Heisman Trophy candidate quarterback Deshaun Watson (692 passing yards, seven touchdowns, three interceptions) hasn’t done much damage on the ground thus far, and running back Wayne Gallman (197 rushing yards, two TDs) has managed 74 yards over the past two games after rushing for 123 in the opener against Auburn. Clemson’s defense has picked up where it left off last year and ranks eighth nationally in total defense (250 yards per game) and 11th in scoring defense (12.3 points per game).

ABOUT GEORGIA TECH (3-0, 1-0-1 ATS, 0-1-1 O/U): Following a defensive struggle in a 17-14 victory over Boston College to open the season, the Yellow Jackets’ option attack has been in high gear the past two games, rolling up 955 yards in lopsided wins over Mercer and Vanderbilt. Quarterback Justin Thomas (169 rushing yards, one touchdown; 335 passing yards, one TD) is the catalyst for the offense, though running back Dedrick Mills (126 yards, four TDs) also has done some damage and Clinton Lynch (116 yards on nine carries) is a big-play threat. The Yellow Jackets have allowed 305 total yards per game but have been a bend-don’t-break unit, giving up only 10.3 points per game – seventh-fewest in the nation.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Georgia Tech is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games versus a team with a winning record.
* Under is 5-0 in Clemson's last five games in September.
* Under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings at Georgia Tech.

CONSENSUS: Bettors are laying the chalk in this ACC matchup, with 62 percent of wagers on Clemson. When it comes to the total, 59 percent of wagers are on the Over.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 4


Saturday’s best 13 games

Michigan is 11-4 in last 15 games with Penn State, winning 28-16, 18-13 in last two; favorites are 7-5 vs spread in series. Lions lost six of last seven visits here (dogs 4-3 vs spread); they scored 33+ points in all three games this month- they were -4 in turnovers last two games. PSU is 6-14 as road dog last 10+ years, 1-4 in Franklin era. Wolverines scored 53 ppg in winning first three games (2-1 vs spread)- they’re 7-3 as a home favorite under Harbaugh.

West Virginia is 5-3 in last 8 games as home favorite, 10-15 overall in Holgorsen era; Mountaineers covered only I-A game this year, but did give up 462 TY (282 PY) in 26-11 win over Mizzou. BYU is 11-4 as an underdog the last 4+ years; their three games this year were decided by total of six points, losing 20-19/17-14 last couple weeks. Being an independent, their schedule is front-loaded; this is their 4th tough game in row. Game is at Redskins Park, so long trip for Cougars, too.

Pitt ran ball for 631 yards last two games, scoring 80 points while splitting pair vs tough foes. Panthers gave up 872 PY, bad news vs North Carolina squad that scored 36 ppg in splitting its two games vs I-A teams. UNC won last three games with Pittsburgh by 7-5-7 points; UNC had 444/502 TY in last two meetings. Pitt lost last two visits to Chapel Hill 40-35/29-10. Tar Heels are 15-9 as home favorites under Fedora. Pitt is 4-2 as road underdogs under Narduzzi.

Baylor steps up in class here after winning by 27-28 over inferior foes last two weeks. Bears won three of last four games with Oklahoma State, with an average total of 79.5. Underdogs covered last three in series. OSU lost 49-28 in last visit to Waco. Baylor ran ball for 617 yards in last two meetings; they’re 2-5 vs spread in last seven games as a home favorite. Cowboys are 8-5 as road underdog last 8+ years; this is their first road game this year.

Underdogs covered seven of last eight Michigan St.-Wisconsin games; teams last met in 2012. Badgers lost last four visits here, by 6-10-1-35 points. Dogs won three of last four series games SU. Badgers switched QBs LW in 23-17 struggle over Georgia State; Wisconsin is 5-2 as road underdog last 6+ years- this is their first road game of year. Spatans had big win over Notre Dame LW, running ball for 260 yards; they’re 11-16 as home favorites last four years.

Texas A&M ran ball for 434 yards in wins over UCLA/Auburn; they’ve won last four games with Arkansas; underdogs are 3-1-1 in last five meetings. Hogs ran ball for 718 yards in last three series games, but are also -7 in turnovers in last four games. A&M is 10-14 as home favorite under Sumlin. Arkansas covered its last eight games as an underdog; they already have road win at TCU this month. Hogs won first two games by total of 4 points before pummeling Texas State 42-3 LW.

Washington is 3-1 as home favorite under Petersen; this is their first road game after whacking three stiffs. Huskies crushed Arizona 49-3 in Seattle LY, but home side is 8-0 in last eight series games; U-Dub lost last four trips to Tucson- their last win here was in ’06. Five of last six series games were decided by 11+ points. Huskies ran ball for 690 yards in last three vs Arizona. Wildcats are 12-4 as home dogs last decade, 5-1 under RichRod.

Ole Miss led Florida State 28-6, Alabama 24-3, but lost both, bad way to start year. Rebels are 13-7-1 as home faves under Freeze. Georgia won its last two games by total of 3 points, surviving trip to Mizzou LW after 26-24 win over I-AA team week before. Ole Miss lost its last ten games with Dawgs (last meeting in ’12); six of last seven were by 10+ points. Georgia won last its five visits to Oxford; Dawgs are 1-5 in last six games as a road underdog.

Tennessee lost its last 11 games with Florida; immense pressure on them to win this game, especially with Gators starting Appleby (backup) at QB with Del Rio hurt. Dogs covered last three series games. Tennessee is 6-11 as home favorite under Jones; Vols are 3-0 but looked shaky in wins over Appalachian St, Ohio U. Purdue transfer Appleby started 11 games for Boilers; Florida is 6-2-1 in its last nine games as a road underdog.

Florida State lost 63-20 LW, worst loss for FSU in decades; how do they bounce back here, in another road game with a frosh QB? USF (+28) lost 34-14 at Florida State LY; Seminoles ran ball for 278 yards. Bulls covered all three series games. FSU is 8-6 as road favorite last 3+ years; they completed only 8-24 passes LW- this game is more about them than USF. Bulls ran ball for 532 yards in winning last two games- they covered last three as a home dog.

LSU found a competent QB LW with Etling taking over- they led Miss State 23-3 at half. LSU is 3-8 in last 11 games as road faves. Favorites are 6-2 vs spread in last eight LSU-Auburn games; LSU is 2-6 in last eight visits here, winning by 2-5 points. LSU is 2-2 as a road favorite at Auburn- they ran ball for 411 yards in LY’s home win (LSU is 7-2 in last nine games vs Auburn). Auburn is playing 4th home game in row; they were held to 13-16 points in losses to Clemson/Tex A&M. Auburn is 3-2 as home dog under Malzahn.

Cal won 50-43 LW, lost 45-40 the week before; Bears allowed 889 rushing yards in three games- not good. Cal won nine of last 11 games with Arizona State; favorites are 6-3 vs spread last nine years. Bears won four of last five visits here- Goff had 542 passing yards vs ASU LY. Sun Devils are 4-5 vs spread as a series favorite, ASU is 3-0 but was life/death to win at UTSA LW and allowed I-AA team to pass for 369 yards in their opener. Sun Devils are 15-9 as home favorite under Graham.

Stanford won its last eight games (7-1 vs spread) vs UCLA, with three straight wins here, all by 18+ points. Cardinal allowed total of 23 points in winning first two games- they threw for only 109 wins in 27-10 win over USC LW. Stanford is 5-8 in last 13 games as a road favorite. Bruins had good road win at BYU LW; UCLA is 0-4 vs spread in last four games as an underdog. Nation-wide, home underdogs are 2-3 vs spread in conference games.

[StarDust Bum]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS:


WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 86-75-5 53.42% +1750

O/U Picks 26-35-1 42.62% -6250

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 22

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

CLEM at GT 07:30 PM

GT +10.5

U 58.0

[StarDust Bum]

Clemson dominates Georgia Tech 26-7
September 22, 2016

ATLANTA (AP) The halftime stats were almost comical. Clemson looked as though it was going against the scout team, not a fellow Atlantic Coast Conference school.

Finally, the sort of performance everyone has been expecting from the No. 5 Tigers.

Deshaun Watson threw for 304 yards, including a pair of touchdowns during a dominant first half that carried Clemson to a 26-7 victory over Georgia Tech on Thursday night.

After sluggish wins over Auburn and Troy, and a practice-like rout of FCS school South Carolina State that meant nothing, the Tigers (4-0, 1-0 ACC) won at Georgia Tech for the first time since 2003 to set up a huge showdown with No. 3 Louisville.

''We came in focused that first half,'' Watson said. ''We just wanted to finish the deal.''

Watson threw a 4-yard touchdown pass to Mike Williams and a 9-yarder to Jordan Leggett with just 4 seconds left before halftime to complete a stunningly lopsided showing that wasn't entirely reflected in the 23-0 lead. Wayne Gallman added a 1-yard TD run.

At halftime, Clemson was up 347-22 lead in total yards and 19-3 in first downs, having run 56 plays to only 21 for the home team. Georgia Tech (3-1, 1-1) was outgained 442-124 overall.

''It's been a long time since we've won here,'' Clemson coach Dabo Swinney said. ''We'll take it.''

This was a virtual repeat of last year's meeting at Clemson, where the Tigers raced to a 33-10 halftime lead on the way to a 43-24 victory. Both times, they totally dominated the line of scrimmage.

''They've done it to us two years in a row up front,'' Georgia Tech coach Paul Johnson said. ''They kicked our butts.''

Clemson backed off over the final two quarters, and the Yellow Jackets avoided their first home shutout since 1957 when Dedrick Mills scored on a 2-yard run with 13:21 remaining.

Even when Georgia Tech came up with a big play, it wound up costing points. Lance Austin intercepted a pass in the end zone and tried to bring it out - only to be whacked inadvertently by teammate Corey Griffin, knocking the ball loose.

Austin fell on it in the end zone, but that was a safety for Clemson. It was a far cry from a prime-time game last season, when the defensive back returned a blocked field goal 78 yards for a touchdown on the final play to give Georgia Tech a stunning victory of Florida State.

There wouldn't be an upset on this night.

THE TAKEAWAY

Clemson: Don't read too much into the sluggish showing in the second half. It was only natural that the Tigers let down a bit after dominating the first two quarters. For sure, this was just the sort of confidence-boosting performance that Clemson needed heading into their game against Louisville.

Georgia Tech: After opening with three straight wins over mediocre opposition, the Yellow Jackets don't seem to have made much improvement over last year's 3-9 debacle. Johnson's triple-option offense was totally manhandled and increasingly looks like a gimmick that other teams have figured out. Poor recruiting seems to have caught up with the Yellow Jackets when they face elite competition.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS

Clemson ran more plays in the first half than Georgia Tech did in the entire game (52). Even more troubling for the Yellow Jackets, 19 of their plays failed to gain or lost yards. The Tigers finished with 82 plays.

RARE CHEERS

The home crowd did get a chance to cheer a couple of times in the first half. It didn't have anything to do with the game.

New athletic director Todd Stansbury , a former Georgia Tech football player whose hiring was announced earlier in the day, was introduced during the first quarter. Another alum, pro golfer Matt Kuchar, received loud applause when he came out during a break wearing his Olympic bronze medal.

POLL IMPLICATIONS

After slipping a bit in the rankings off their first two wins, the Tigers should stay right where they are - maybe even move up a spot or two - when the Associated Press poll comes out next week.

UP NEXT

Clemson: When Louisville visits Death Valley on Oct. 1, it will have all the makings of a national playoff game. Assuming the Cardinals (3-0) get by Marshall on Saturday night, two unbeaten powerhouses will meet to establish the pecking order atop the ACC.

Georgia Tech: No. 15 Miami (3-0) and longtime nemesis Mark Richt visit Bobby Dodd Stadium on Oct. 1. Richt is in his first season as the Hurricanes coach after 15 years at Georgia, where he went 13-2 against the Yellow Jackets.

[StarDust Bum]

CFB BEST BETS:

YESTERDAY'S RESULTS: 1 - 1

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 86-76-5 53.09% +1200

O/U Picks 28-35-1 43.55% -5750

[StarDust Bum]

Friday’s games

TCU won nine of its last 10 games with SMU (4-3 vs spread in last seven); Horned Frogs won last four series games by average of 46-17. Mustangs are 2-8 in last 10 games as home underdog; they lost 40-13 at Baylor two weeks ago, its only game this year vs a good team. TCU plays Oklahoma next; they’re 3-4 vs spread when laying 20+ to SMU- this is local rivalry. Frogs are 4-12 vs spread in last 16 games as a road favorite

Eastern Michigan is 2-1 this year after going 7-41 the last four years; EMU (+13) went to Laramie, upset Wyoming 48-29 in LY’s meeting; Eagles had 352 TY at half, lading 38-14 Cowboys allowed 741 passing yards in its two games against I-A teams; they’re favoried on road for first time in three years (3-6 as road fave since 2007). EMU is 6-12 in last 18 games as a home underdog.

USC is 1-2 and switching to freshman QB Darnold, who makes his first start here. Trojans won four of last five games vs Utah, going 1-1 in last two visits here; favorites covered four of last five series games. USC is 2-8 in its last ten games as a road underdog. Utah beat rival BYU 20-19 despite being -2 in turnovers; Utes lost two good players LW, still won easily at San Jose. Utes are 2-6 in last eight games as a home favorite.

[StarDust Bum]

Best Bets - Week 4
September 22, 2016


The best bets from last week's college football feature proved to be good ones as Oklahoma State and California both got to the window. Cal even won that wild shootout with Texas outright, and those of you that passed up the points there and took the Golden Bears on the money line you ended Saturday on a high note.

This week I'm looking to duplicate those results as we've got plenty of great games on the board, but two situations really stand out.

Best Bet #1: Florida State/South Florida Under 61

Florida State got beat down brutally in every aspect of the game in their big showdown with Louisville last week. That loss definitely put a big damper on the Seminoles hopes of getting back to the College Football Playoff and it will be interesting to see how they respond on the road once again this week. However, one thing that we should see is that Florida State defense come out with a lot of intensity.

Last week's beating in Louisville was notable because the 63 points QB Lamar Jackson and Louisville hung on Florida State was the most a Seminoles team has ever given up in the history of the program. That's particularity embarrassing for a school that prides itself on great defense, and there is no doubt that HC Jimbo Fisher and the rest of his coaching staff have been preaching better defensive play all week. They'll be tested against a South Florida squad that has scored 45 or more in each of their three games so far (all wins), but look for the Seminoles defense to be flying around all over the place and keep the Bulls in check.

The last thing this Seminoles team wants to happen is another horrific defensive performance and they'll right the ship here. They held this same South Florida team to just 14 points a year ago, and before last week's blowout, five straight FSU road tilts had stayed 'under' the number.

South Florida will do their part to keep this one below the 61 total as they'll want to sustain long drives to keep Florida State's offense off the field for as much as possible. The Bulls have yet to allow more than 20 points in any of their games this year, and while they have been against inferior opponents, this game could end up being a defensive battle.

Best Bet #2: Marshall (+26.5)

For those of you that like to look for situational spots like look ahead games and sandwich spots, this is definitely one of the biggest sandwich spots you'll find all year. Marshall is getting nearly 4 TD's against Louisville and this is a very tough sandwich spot for the Cardinals to be in laying that many points on the road. Early money has bumped this line up a bit after opening at -25.5 as bettors firmly believe in Lamar Jackson and Louisville now after they dismantled Florida State, but this simply way too many points here.

Louisville is coming off that huge Top-10 beatdown over the Seminoles to vault themselves in the CFB Playoff conversation. It was a great win, but on deck after this Marshall game is another huge conference matchup with top-five ranked Clemson. It's going to be nearly impossible for the Cardinals to bring the same kind of focus and energy they had vs. Florida State to this road affair with Marshall, especially with one eye looking ahead to Clemson. After all, Marshall is coming their own embarrassing blowout defeat a week ago.

Marshall was shell-shocked against Akron last week as the Thundering Herd were 17-point favorites and lost outright by 27 points. Four turnovers killed Marshall last week as they might have been caught looking ahead themselves to this big match with Louisville. If that was the case, this is tremendous value on a Marshall team that can score with Louisville here, and are getting about a touchdown or more here on the spread compared to what the number would have been had Marshall won and covered the -17.5 points with ease last week.

[StarDust Bum]

USC at Utah
September 21, 2016


When I wrote my column about the 14 coaching changes at FBS programs going into the 2016 campaign, I ranked Southern Cal’s hire of Clay Helton at a nearly last-place No. 13. To date, I haven’t seen anything to deter that notion.

USC (1-2 straight up, 1-2 against the spread) is off to a dreadful start and now has to go on the road on a short week to face Utah on Friday night at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City. As of Tuesday, most books had Utah (3-0 SU, ATS) installed as a three-point home favorite with a total of 46.5 points. The Trojans were +135 on the money line at most spots (risk $100 to win $135).

USC is off a 27-10 loss at Stanford as a 7.5-point underdog. The 37 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 48.5-point total. Max Browne completed 18-of-28 passes for 191 yards, but he was yanked in favor of redshirt freshman Sam Darnold in the second half. Darnold connected on 5-of-7 throws for 45 yards without a touchdown pass and one interception.

Stanford raced out to a 17-3 advantage at intermission behind the play of All-American RB Christian McCaffrey, who finished with 260 all-purpose yards. USC responded with a nine-play, 75-yard drive capped by a one-yard TD run from Ronald Jones to trim the deficit to seven.

However, the Trojans would get no closer. They committed seven of their eight penalties in the first half to stymie otherwise successful drives. Five of those flags were for false starts. Jones and Justin Davis both rushed for 63 yards apiece. JuJu Smith-Schuster, a second-team All-American in 2015, was limited to just three receptions for 34 yards.

For the season, Browne has connected on 55-of-87 passes (63.2%) for 474 yards with a 2/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The true junior who is a former five-star recruit had a pair of TD passes in Week 2 when USC thumped Utah State by a 45-7 count as a 16.5-point home favorite. Darnold also saw playing time against the Aggies and it wasn’t just snaps at garbage time.

Darnold found Deontay Burnett for a 13-yard scoring strike to push the Trojans’ lead to 14-0 over Utah State early in the third quarter. He also had a 15-yard TD pass to Smith-Schuster early in the fourth quarter. For the year, Darnold has completed 14-of-22 attempts (63.6%) for 136 yards with a 2/1 TD-INT ratio. Helton has decided to give Darnold his first career start at Utah.

This is the third time USC has had to travel in a four-week stretch. It took a 52-6 shellacking from top-ranked Alabama in the season opener at Jerry World in Arlington, TX. The 1-2 start has Helton now sporting a 7-6 record as a head coach. In four road underdog spots on Helton’s watch, the Trojans are 0-4 both SU and ATS with double-digit defeats in each situation.

The offense has to find more touches for Smith-Schuster, who has only 11 receptions for 99 yards and two TDs. He had 89 catches for 1,454 yards and 10 TDs last season. The offensive line was touted as one of the best in the country coming into the year, but Justin Davis’s team-high 135 rushing yards have come at a meager 3.6 yards-per-carry average.

The USC offense is averaging only 323.0 yards per game, which ranks No. 114 among FBS teams. The Troajns’ 20.3 points-per-game average ranks No. 109.

Utah has collected wins vs. Southern Utah (24-0), vs. BYU (20-19) and at San Jose State (34-17). Kyle Whittingham’s squad covered the number as 13.5-point road favorites in the win over the Spartans. The 51 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 46-point tally thanks to a 46-yard TD pass for San Jose State with 3:45 remaining in the fourth quarter.

Troy Williams completed 20-of-28 passes for 257 yards with one TD and one interception. Tim Patrick had six receptions for 121 yards and one TD, while Cory Butler-Byrd snared five balls for 66 yards. Zach Moss rushed for 95 yards and one TD on 12 attempts, while Armand Shyne ran for 92 yards and one score on 12 carries. Troy McCormick added 61 rushing yards on just seven totes, including a 16-yard TD scamper that put the Utes ahead to stay at 13-10 early in the second quarter.

Utah’s defense smothered the San Jose State ground attack, limiting the Spartans to 56 rushing yards on 32 carries for a 1.8 YPC average. Junior safety Marcus Williams, the team’s leading returning tackler who had 66 stops and five interceptions on his way to earning first-team All Pac-12 honors in 2015, had six tackles and one interception. Senior DE Hunter Dimick had five tackles and two sacks to bring his career sack total to 18.

Utah’s defense was playing without junior DE Kylie Fitts for the first time against San Jose State. Fitts sustained a season-ending injury in the victory over BYU. He already had four tackles, three tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks through two games. The transfer from UCLA saw his first playing time for the Utes last season when he tallied 41 tackles, seven sacks, one TFL and 10 passes broken up. Also in the injury front, the Utes’ leading returning rusher Joe Williams chose to retire last week. Williams rushed for 477 yards and three TDs in ’15.

Utah currently ranks 13th in the nation in total defense, holding foes to 263.7 yards per game. The Utes are 12th in scoring ‘D,’ giving up only 12.0 PPG.

Williams, the prized juco signee who began his career at Washington, threw three interceptions in the 20-19 win over BYU. The defense picked him up, however, making a stop on the Cougars’ two-point conversion attempt with 18 seconds remaining. Junior LB Sunia Tauteoli was the hero with a pair of interceptions, including a 41-yard pick-six on Taysom Hill in the first half.

For the season, Williams has completed 54-of-86 passes (62.8%) for 723 yards with a 4/4 TD-INT ratio. Patrick has been his favorite target, hauling in 14 receptions for 285 yards and four TDs. McCormick has rushed for a team-best 178 yards and two TDs on 29 carries for a 6.1 YPC average. Moss (6.4 YPC) and Shyne (5.5 YPC) have rushed for 153 and 111 yards, respectively.

Utah is 2-6 in its last eight games as a home favorite, but it is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 outings as single-digit home ‘chalk.’ This is the Pac-12 opener for the Utes, who have a road game at California on deck in Week 5.

When these teams met last year The Coliseum, USC captured a 42-24 win as a 4.5-point home favorite. Jones rushed for 73 yards and one TD, while Smith-Schuster had eight catches for 143 yards and one TD. Cameron Smith, the Pac-12 Freshman Defensive Player of the Year and a second-team All Pac-12 selection, had three interceptions for 122 return yards, including a 54-yard pick-six. The ‘under’ had gone 5-1 in the six previous head-to-head meetings, but the 66 combined points soared ‘over’ the 57-point total.

Since Utah joined the Pac-12 in 2011, USC has won four of five encounters except for the 2014 game in Salt Lake City, where the Utes won a 24-21 decision as one-point home underdogs.

The ‘under’ is 2-1 overall for USC, 1-0 in its lone true road assignment. Meanwhile, Utah has seen the ‘under’ go 2-1, cashing in both of its home contests.

USC won’t have two starters and could be without another one. OG Toa Lobendahn is out for the season with a knee injury, while LB Osa Masina has been suspended for the rest of the year. DT Noah Jefferson is listed as ‘questionable’ with a shoulder injury.

Two starters for Utah, senior CB Dominique Hatfield and WR Tyrone Smith, both missed the San Jose State game with undisclosed injuries and remain ‘questionable’ this week. Hatfield had four interceptions in ’15, while Smith had 18 catches for 193 yards.

Kickoff is scheduled for Fox Sports 1 at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- There are two other games on tap for Friday night. Southern Methodist is poised to host TCU at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. As of early Wednesday, most books had the Horned Frogs listed as 21-point road favorites with a total of 63.5 points. Gary Patterson’s team is 2-1 SU but winless for our purposes with a 0-3 ATS mark. TCU failed to cover in last week’s 41-20 home win over Iowa State as a 24.5-point home favorite. ISU scored 10 points in the final 6:41 to hit the backdoor cover for its supporters. The ‘over’ improved to 3-0 for the Frogs when the 61 combined points stretched ‘over’ the 60.5-point total thanks to a 30-yard field goal by the Cyclones with 1:29 remaining.

-- TCU’s new starting QB Kenny Hill, a transfer from Texas A&M who at one point in late September of 2014 was considered the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, has rushed for 166 yards and six TD while averaging 6.1 YPC. Hill, the Dallas Southlake Carroll High School product, has completed 65.2 percent of his passes for 1,035 with a 4/3 TD-INT ratio.

-- TCU has limped to a 4-12 spread record in its last 16 games as a road favorite.

-- SMU (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) has wins at North Texas (34-21) and vs. Liberty (29-14). In the Mustangs’ lone loss at Baylor (40-13) in Week 2, the game was tied at 6-6 at halftime. The Bears pulled away to win easily in the second half, but they failed to cover as 34.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Chad Morris’s squad lost its starting QB Matt Davis to a season-ending ACL tear following the season opener. Davis, who had a 16/7 TD-INT ratio last year, threw a pair of TD passes and one interception against the Mean Green. Redshirt freshman Ben Hicks has taken over as the starter, but he’s been intercepted five times compared to two TD passes in his two starts.

-- SMU is 1-3 ATS as a home underdog on Morris’s watch to date.

-- In the other Friday game, Wyoming makes a long trip on a short week to take on Eastern Michigan (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) in Ypsilanti at 7:30 p.m. Eastern on the CBS Sports College Network. As of early Wednesday, the Eagles were three-point home underdogs, while the total was at 63. During Chris Creighton’s three-year tenure at Eastern Michigan, it has compiled a 3-6 spread record in nine games as a home ‘dog. The Eagles bounced back from a 61-21 loss at Missouri to win 37-19 at Charlotte last weekend as 1.5-point road favorites.

-- Wyoming (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) is led by junior RB Brian Hill, a second-team All Mtn. West selection last year when he rushed for 1,631 yards and six TDs while averaging 5.8 YPC. Hill has run for 381 yards and five TDs through the first three games this season. The Cowboys are in their first road ‘chalk’ spot of Craig Bohl’s three-year tenure in this contest.

-- The following teams are 3-0 ATS: Army, Central Michigan, Louisville, Miami, Ohio State, South Florida, Texas A&M, Toledo, Western Michigan, Ball State, Colorado, SMU, BYU and ULM. Stanford is 2-0 ATS, while Navy, Nebraska and Tulane are 2-0-1 versus the number.

-- Texas Tech junior QB Patrick Mahomes leads the nation with 1,493 passing yards. Who is second in the country? That would be Cal’s Davis Webb (1,359), a transfer from Texas Tech. Mahomes and Webb are also 1-2 in the nation in TD passes with 14 and 13, respectively. Webb’s favorite target Chad Hansen paces the country in receiving yards with 546.

-- New Mexico State RB Larry Rose is finally set to make his season debut Saturday at Troy. Rose, the Sun Belt’s Offensive Player of the Year last season when he rushed for 1,651 yards and 14 TDs while averaging 6.9 YPC, has recovering from sports hernia surgery. He also had 30 catches for 283 yards and two TDs in ’15.

-- Colorado LB Derek McCartney is done for the year with a torn ACL. McCartney had 49 tackles, five sacks, 6.5 TFL’s and one interception last season.

-- Oregon starting OT Tyrell Crosby is out for the season with an undisclosed injury. The junior had 24 career starts under his belt. The Ducks will also be without speedy WR Devon Allen for the rest of the season.

-- How fun would it be to drink beers with Jerome from Birmingham from the Finebaum Show? Sign me up.