The Bum's 2016 College Football Best Bets,Trends,Stat, News !!

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's best
September 3, 2016

STARS

-Nick Chubb, Georgia, ran for 222 yards in his return from a gruesome knee injury and scored on a 55-yard touchdown run late in the fourth quarter to clinch the No. 18 Bulldogs' 33-24 victory over No. 22 North Carolina.

-J.T. Barrett, Ohio State, accounted for a school-record seven TDs - six passing - and 379 yards in the sixth-ranked Buckeyes' 77-10 win over Bowling Green.

-Trevor Knight, Texas A&M, threw for 239 yards and accounted for three TDs, including a 1-yard run in overtime to lead the Aggies to a 31-24 victory over No. 16 UCLA in his debut.

-Tim Barnes, Georgetown, threw four TD passes to help the Hoyas handle Davidson 38-14.

-Brad Kaaya, Miami, threw for four TDs on his 21st birthday, the Hurricanes scored a school-record 42 points in the third quarter and the Mark Richt era began with an easy 70-3 win over Florida A&M.

-Brett Rypien, Boise State, threw for 347 yards and two TDs to help the Broncos cruise to a 45-10 season opening win over Louisiana Lafayette.

-Tyler Jones, Texas State, threw for 418 yards and four TDs in a 56-54 triple-overtime victory over Ohio.

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EARLY UPSETS

The first weekend of college football featured some nice upsets.

No. 15 Houston looked every bit ready to compete in the Big 12 - or any other conference for that matter - in a 33-22 victory against No. 3 Oklahoma.

Wisconsin followed with an upset of its own, staving off No. 5 LSU's desperate last-ditch drive for a 16-14 win in a game that dealt an early blow to the fifth-ranked Tigers' national title hopes.

South Alabama had the biggest upset of the day, holding off Mississippi State 21-20 when Westin Graves' 28-yard field goal try smacked off the upright in the final seconds.

A four-touchdown underdog, the Jaguars took down an SEC team for the first time in school history.

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CONNER'S RETURN

James Conner had an emotional return to the field, scoring a pair of touchdowns in his first game since battling cancer to lead Pittsburgh to a 28-7 win over Villanova.

The 2014 ACC Player of the Year sprinted onto the Heinz Field turf in front of a crowd that included his family, the doctors that treated him during his seven-month tussle with Hodgkin's lymphoma and more than 300 friends and family from his hometown of Erie, Pennsylvania.

Conner's first official carry in 364 days went for minus-1 yard but was met by a standing ovation.

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NUMBERS

41-Years since Michigan had beaten a team worse than its 63-3 victory over Hawaii.

72-Years since Richmond had beaten Virginia before a 37-20 victory over the Cavaliers.

776-Total yards by No. 6 Ohio State in its 77-10 win over Bowling Green, breaking the school record of 718 set against Mount Union in 1930.

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REPLACEMENT FROM THE STANDS

Malcolm Perry marched into the stadium wearing his Navy dress whites. Plucked from the stands at halftime, he wound up in a much different uniform.

Navy found an unlikely replacement after starter Tago Smith was injured, with Perry leading the Midshipmen to a 52-16 win over Fordham.

Listed down on the depth chart, Perry had been sick most of the week. The freshman was OK to play in the junior varsity game Friday.

Perry was sitting with his classmates when Smith went down with a knee injury in the second quarter.

Perry made his debut with 38 seconds left in the third quarter. He later put together a 90-yard drive in the fourth quarter that led to a field goal.

[StarDust Bum]

Notre Dame at Texas
September 3, 2016

Two of the country’s most storied programs will take center stage Sunday night when Texas plays host to Notre Dame at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC.

As of Saturday afternoon, most betting shops had Notre Dame installed as a 3.5-point road favorite. The total for ‘over/under’ wagers was 59.5 points, while the Longhorns were +145 on the money line (risk $100 to win $145). For first-half bets, the Fighting Irish were favored by 2.5 points with a total of 30.5.

These schools met in last season’s season opener as well. Brian Kelly’s squad coasted to a 38-3 win as a nine-point home ‘chalk.’ The 41 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 48-point total. Notre Dame dominated from start to finish, enjoying a 527-163 advantage in total offense and a 30-8 margin in first downs.

Malik Zaire completed 19-of-22 passes for 313 yards and three TDs without an interception. Josh Adams ran for 49 yards and a pair of scores on just five carries.

Since Charlie Strong took over in 2014, Texas has compiled a 2-3-1 spread record in six games as a home underdog. Meanwhile, Notre Dame owns a 5-9 spread record in 14 games as a road favorite on Kelly’s watch.

Strong enters the season on a boiling hot seat. He has an abysmal 11-14 record since arriving in Austin, going 6-7 and 5-7. The Longhorns started 1-4 last season and went into the Red River Rivalry showdown as a 16.5-point underdog to Oklahoma. However, they put together their best performance of the year and captured a 24-17 win over the previously-unbeaten and 10th-ranked Sooners.

Following a 23-9 home win over Kansas State in its next outing, Texas appeared poised to finished strong. But that notion went out the window in Ames, where the Longhorns fell to 3-5 after taking a 24-0 shellacking at Iowa St.

With a 4-6 record, Texas hosted Texas Tech needing a win to remain bowl eligible. It wasn’t to be, though, as Patrick Mahomes led the Red Raiders to a 48-45 win as one-point road underdogs. In the regular-season finale, the Longhorns went to Waco and shocked 12th-ranked Baylor by a 23-17 count as 21.5-point underdogs. We should note that the Bears were playing their fourth-string QB due to injuries.

Strong’s third team brings back seven starters on offense and eight on defense. The main issue during Strong’s tenure has been inadequate play at the QB position. Tyrone Swoopes and Jerrod Heard are still around, but all indications are that true freshman Shane Buechele is going to be the starter. He left high school early in order to participate in spring practice and get comfortable in new offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilber’s system. Gilber takes over as OC after guiding Tulsa’s offense last year.

Texas was deplorable on defense last year, especially for a unit being directed by Strong, who was a defensive whiz in various defensive coordinator roles across the SEC for two decades before landing his first head-coaching gig at Louisville. The Longhorns gave up 30.3 points per game last season, but it has seven of its top nine tacklers back.

This unit will be led by sophomore LB Malik Jefferson, who garnered Big Defensive Freshman of the Year honors in ’15. Jefferson recorded 61 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, three passes broken up and six QB hurries.

Notre Dame endured a horrible rash of season-ending injuries to key players last year. Nevertheless, the Irish went into the regular-season finale at Stanford ranked fourth in the nation and clearly in the mix for a College Football Playoff berth. It wasn’t to be, however, as the Cardinal won a 38-36 decision.

Then at the Fiesta Bowl, Ohio State beat Notre Dame by a 44-28 count as a 6.5-point favorite. It was a disappointing end to the year but considering the circumstances (injuries), there was no shame whatsoever in a 10-3 SU record and a 8-5 ATS ledger. The Irish return four starters on offense and five on defense.

The QB situation is unsettled, but that’s a good thing in this instance. Zaire went down with a season-ending injury one week after looking so sharp in the easy win over Texas. DeShone Kizer stepped in as a freshman and played well. He completed 211-of-335 passes (63.0%) for 2,884 yards with a 21/10 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The dual-threat QB also rushed for 520 yards and 10 TDs.

Zaire led the Irish to a 31-28 win over LSU at the Music City Bowl two seasons ago. Then before getting injured at Virginia in Week 2 of last year, he had connected on 26-of-40 throws (65.0%) for 428 yards and four TDs without an interception.

Kelly has yet to announce a starter. Obviously, Kelly is confident in both players and I would expect both to see playing time.

Most of the WR group has departed, including Will Fuller and Chris Brown. Torii Hunter Jr. is the leading returning receiver after catching 28 balls for 363 yards and two TDs. Leading rusher C.J. Prosise is also gone, but Josh Adams is back following a year in which he ran for 835 yards and six TDs while averaging 7.1 YPC.

Notre Dame took a big hit a few weeks ago when senior free safety Max Redfield was dismissed from the program following an arrest on felony charges. Redfield was the team’s leading returning tackler after making 64 stops in ’15. Without him, the Irish only has one of its top eight returning tacklers.

Also, second-string cornerback Devin Butler is out due to a suspension. He had 11 tackles and a pair of passes broken up in ’15. Starting sophomore TE Alize Jones is done for the year due to academic issues. Jones had 13 receptions for 190 yards in ’15.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Toledo QB Logan Woodside sparked his team to an impressive 31-10 win at Arkansas State as a 3.5-point underdog Friday night in Jonesboro. Woodside connected on 23-of-31 passes for 371 yards and three TDs without an interception.

-- Mississippi State has to take Week 1 honors for the most pathetic performance. The Bulldogs lost outright at home to South Alabama, 21-20. A chip-shot field goal attempt with nine seconds left hit the cross bar, allowing the Jaguars to win outright as 28-point underdogs. Money-line backers at 5Dimes.eu cashed a monster 30/1 ticket.

-- Is Houston the hottest program in the country? The Cougars captured a 33-23 win over Oklahoma as 13.5-point underdogs, hooking up money-line supporters with a beautiful +450 payout (risk $100 to win $450). They are now an instant contender for a berth in the CFP if they can run the table. Tom Herman’s team certainly has a number of tests in an underrated AAC, but it also gets a Nov. 17 home game against a Louisville squad that I expect to be a Top-15 type of team this year. As long as Oklahoma has a 10-win season and Louisville is an 8-or-9-win squad, Houston will be in the CFP if it goes 13-0 and wins the AAC. Trust me.

-- Another nice money-line winner came Friday when Army went to Philadelphia and pulled a 28-13 upset over Temple as a 14.5-point underdog. The Black Knights delivered a +475 payout to their supporters.

[StarDust Bum]

Betting Recap - Week 1
September 4, 2016

Overall Notes

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 1 RESULTS

WAGER Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up 68-15

Against the Spread 38-43-2

WAGER Home-Away

Straight Up 61-16

Against the Spread 33-43-1

WAGER Totals (O/U)

Over-Under 27-42-3

WAGER Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up (neutral site) 4-2

Against the Spread (neutral site) 2-3-1

Over-Under (neutral site) 2-4

The largest underdogs to win straight up
South Alabama (+28, ML +3000) at Mississippi State, 21-20
Eastern Washington (+27.5, ML +2750) at Washington State, 45-42
Albany (+21, ML +1125) at Buffalo, 22-16

The largest favorites to cover
Miami-Florida (-52) vs. Florida A&M, 70-3
Oklahoma State (-49) vs. SE Louisiana, 61-7
Middle Tennessee (-47.5) vs. Alabama A&M, 55-0

Top 25 Notes

-- The first full weekend of college football was tremendously exciting, as the marquee games mostly lived up to their billing. Top-ranked Alabama was expected to get a much bigger test from Southern California, but that game turned out to be a laugher. The Trojans outscored the Crimson Tide 3-0 after the first quarter, but then the Tide took over and blasted USC 52-6. ... No. 2 Clemson ended up getting a much bigger challenge than expected at Auburn, winning 19-13. See the 'bad beat' section for more on how this one played out. ... At Lambeau Field in Green Bay it was defensive slog and great game between Louisiana State and Wisconsin, although the result was overshadowed by an ugly cheap shot by LSU's Josh Boutte. The Badgers weren't ranked in the Top 25, but after toppling the No. 6 team in the nation it appears Wisconsin is headed for the rankings. ... Top 25 teams went 17-5 SU through Saturday's action, but finished 9-13 ATS with two of the games featuring ranked teams on each side.

-- In Thursday's action, Appalachian State came over the Great Smoky Mountains to face Tennessee, losing 20-13 in overtime. The Volunteers have high expectations, but they started the season on a sour note with a near upset.

-- Houston was invited to the party last season, upending Florida State in the Peach Bowl. This season, they're the favorite from the Group of Five to crash the New Year's Day bowls again. Their bid got off to a great start with a 33-23 win over Oklahoma at NRG Field in Houston, which was technically a neutral-site game.

-- North Carolina and Georgia had a classic battle in the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. It appeared the ACC underdog was going to win, but then a strange safety seemed to turn the tide and get the Bulldogs rolling. Speaking of rolling, Nick Chubb showed why he is in the early Heisman conversation with a stellar perhaps to trample the Tar Heels and help the Dawgs cover.

Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

-- The Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) is off to an impressive start, as Clemson won 19-13 at Auburn, and Louisville looked the part of Top 25 team with a 70-14 thrashing and cover against Charlotte. ... Wake Forest's offense appeared to be stuck in neutral yet again, mustering just seven points in Thursday's game against Tulane. The good news is that they had a suffocating defense on display in a 7-3 win. ... North Carolina State picked up a win over William & Mary, and fellow Triangle team Duke pushed North Carolina Central aside in the Bull City Battle, covering a big number in the process. ... It wasn't all good, as Virginia tasted defeat at home against Richmond of the FCS, a team which led 30-7 at hone point before a couple of late scores made it look semi-respectable.

-- Ohio State and Michigan looked strong in the opening weekend, pushing aside inferior opponents while racking up plenty of points in the process. The Buckeyes (-27.5) easily covered against Bowling Green of the MAC, 77-10. Ohio State is 32-1 against the MAC all-time, losing to Akron back in 1894. The Wolverines spanked Hawaii 63-3, as the Rainbow Warriors slipped to 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS. ... Michigan State was rather sluggish, beating FCS Furman by a 28-13 count, never comin close to cover as 37 1/2-point favorites. ... Northwestern had high hopes entering the season, but P.J. Fleck's Western Michigan squad had other ideas in a 22-21 victory in Evanston.

-- Kansas State was on the short end of a 26-13 loss at Stanford Friday night. Depending on the time of your wager, you either covered, lost or pushed, with the line fluctuating from 12 to 15 during the week. ... Disaster struck in Houston for the Sooners, and to make matters worse they have to share the state with Oklahoma State, who pounded FCS Southeast Louisiana 61-7 to look mighty impressive in their opener. ... One Big 12 team which did not have good luck against an FCS squad was Iowa State, as they were shocked at home by Northern Iowa, 25-20. ... Texas Christian had their hands full with South Dakota State, as they were tied 24-24 at halftime, and they were tied 31-31 midway through the third quarter before the light went off for the Horned Frogs.

-- USC's loss was a black eye for the Pac-12, and UCLA was unable to come away from Texas A&M with a victory, although they certainly were scrappy. The Bruins erased a 24-9 Aggies' lead in the fourth quarter, forcing overtime. However, UCLA ended up losing 31-24 for the non-cover. ... Oregon usually starts off slow in these cupcake games against FCS teams, and Saturday was no different. UC-Davis easily covered a 48-point number in their 53-28 loss in Eugene. ... For the second straight season, Washington State was dumped by an FCS team in the opening weekend. Last year it was Portland State, this time it was Eastern Washington doing the honors.

-- The SEC had a difficult time this weekend, as LSU lost its marquee battle, while Mississippi State started off the post-Dak Prescott Era with a 21-20 setback to South Alabama of the Sun Belt. ... Arkansas didn't look particularly sharp, slipping by Louisiana Tech by a 21-20 score. ... Kentucky held a 35-10 lead at one point, but they were outscored 34-0 since the end of the second quarter against Southern Mississippi in a 44-35 stunner at Commonwealth Stadium. ... Missouri opened with a loss and non-cover at West Virginia, slipping 26-11. The offensive woes which plagued the Tigers last season reared their ugly head in Morgantown.

Mid-Major Report

-- Temple didn't get off to a very impressive start, falling 28-13 to Army. The Owls lost just three games all season before their bowl loss, and they only suffered one setback at home all of last year. ... Tulsa was favored by just four points, but they thrashed San Jose State by a 45-10 score thanks to Dane Evans, Keevan Lucas and friends. ... Cincinnati was sluggish in a 28-7 win against Tennessee-Martin of the FCS. The Bearcats will look for better results at Purdue next Saturday. ... Southern Methodist looked sharp, winning 34-21 at North Texas as touchdown favorites.

-- Outside of the Southern Mississippi comeback, Conference USA didn't have a whole lot to crow about in the opening stanza. Louisiana Tech also had a signature win at Arkansas, but the Razorbacks fought back for a 21-20 win thanks to a touchdown with 6:37 remaining. ... App State also scored a big upset in Knoxville against a Top 10 team, but they came up just short in overtime against the Vols.

-- The Mid-America Conference went 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS against the Big Ten. Western Michigan stunned Northwestern 22-21 to cover a 3 1/2-point spread, while Kent State held on for the cover as a 24-point underdog. ... The game of the day might have been in Athens, as Ohio slipped against visiting Texas State in triple-overtime, 56-54. ... Akron was a bit rusty to start, leading just 26-24 through three quarters against VMI. The Zips outscored the Keydets 21-0 in the final quarter to score a 47-24 victory.

-- It was ugly in Denver for the Mountain West, as Colorado State was spanked 44-7 by rival Colorado at Mile High. The underdog had been 3-0-1 ATS in the past four meetings, but this one wasn't close. ... Boise State looks ready to return to prominence, and they kicked off their sseason with a 45-10 shellacking of Louisiana-Lafayette on the road. ... Nevada got all it could handle against Cal Poly SLO, winning 30-27 in double-overtime. ... UNLV covered a 40-point number against FCS Jackson State, treating Walter Payton's alma mater rather rudely.

Bad Beats

-- Clemson was covering 19-6 midway through the fourth quarter at Auburn. On 3rd and 10, Auburn threw incomplete for what should have been a fourth down play. However, senior Ben Boulware had a roughing the passer call to give Auburn a chance. They cashed in on the very next play to go up 19-13. After a failed onside kick attempt and favorable situation with timeouts, it appeared Clemson would cover with a field goal in the final minute. But head coach Dabo Swinney elected to go for it on fourth down, stunning bettors of Clemson everywhere.

-- If you were laying the 3 1/2 points with Kentucky, then you need a drink. They were up 35-10 and there looked like no way Southern Mississippi could get back into the game. But they closed to 35-17 by halftime, and outscored the Wildcats 27-0 in the second half for the amazing 44-35 victory.

-- It was like losing twice for UCLA side bettors. The Bruins fought back from a 24-9 deficit in the final 4:19 to force overtime at 24. But A&M scored a touchdown, and the Bruins were unable to answer. If you had the 'under' (55), it was also a bad beat. Therew were just 33 points in the first 55:41 of regulation, and 22 points in the final 4:19 of regulation and overtime.

[StarDust Bum]

CFB RECORD BEST BETS:

09/03/2016 33-21-2 61.11% +4950

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 39-28-2 58.21% +4100

O/U Picks 9-8-0 52.94% +100

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, September 4

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NOTRE DAME (10 - 3) at TEXAS (5 - 7) - 9/4/2016, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NOTRE DAME is 1-0 against the spread versus TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
NOTRE DAME is 1-0 straight up against TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, September 4

7:30 PM
NOTRE DAME vs. TEXAS
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Notre Dame's last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Notre Dame's last 21 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Texas's last 9 games

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Sunday, September 4

Notre Dame @ Texas

Game 209-210
September 4, 2016 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Notre Dame
104.282
Texas
98.200
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Notre Dame
by 6
64
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Notre Dame
by 3
60
Dunkel Pick:
Notre Dame
(-3); Over

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No. 9 Notre Dame (-3) at Texas

It’s a Sunday evening showdown of traditional college football powers deep in the heart of Texas, where Notre Dame will look to put behind it the arrests of several players in two separate incidents earlier this month. The Fighting Irish were in the hunt for one of the four playoff spots last year before a 38-36 loss at Stanford catching 4 points in the regular-season finale.

Notre Dame then got blitzed by Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl, losing 44-28 as a 4.5-point pup to complete a 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS season.

Meanwhile, Texas hasn’t sniffed national championship contention since losing the title game to Alabama after the 2009 regular season. Last year, the Longhorns went 5-7 SU and ATS, though they capped the season with a 23-17 upset of host Baylor as a 21-point underdog.

“Our business couldn’t ask for a better Week 1 Sunday night matchup, as bankrolls are full and we have two teams with massive followings,” Lester said of the 7:30 p.m. Eastern kickoff. “In the first week of June, we opened this game at Irish -4.5, and early, sharp action came in on Texas. Earlier this month, the line moved as high as -5, but during the past week, more Longhorn money from smart players pushed it down to a field goal.”



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NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 1

Sun – Sept. 4

Notre Dame at Texas, 7:30 PM ET
Notre Dame: 10-3 ATS in the first half of the season
Texas: 6-9 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less




NCAAF

Sunday, September 4

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NCAAF Game of the Day: Notre Dame at Texas
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Notre Dame crushed Texas 38-3 last season, this year the Irish are slight 3.5-point favorites.

No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Texas Longhorns (+3.5, 59)

Notre Dame is heading into another season with National Championship aspirations and has a pair of quarterbacks leading what should be an explosive offense. Texas, which hosts the ninth-ranked Fighting Irish in the season opener on Sunday, is hoping to bounce back from a losing season and is motivated to improve.

Notre Dame’s two regular-season losses last year came by a total of four points, and the team still had a chance to go to the College Football Playoff until falling 38-36 to Stanford in the regular-season finale. The Fighting Irish began 2015 with Malik Zaire under center but watched him go down with a fractured ankle in Week 2, leading to a strong effort from DeShone Kizer the rest of the way and a battle throughout camp that has yet to resolve itself. The Longhorns opened up their own competition at quarterback in camp and declared a winner between senior Tyrone Swoopes and freshman Shane Buechele, though they don’t plan on letting the rest of the world know until Sunday. “It's just about being consistent and being progressive, and be able to know and execute,” Texas offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert told reporters of the quarterback battle. “It's like any offense - if you execute it at a high level, if you do your job at a high level, then the majority of the time you're the guy.”

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC.

LINE HISTORY: The Irish opened as 4.5-point road favorites for their season opener, but since then the line has moved slightly in the Longhorns favor. The current number is Notre Dame -3.5. As for the total, it has been bet down slightly since opening at 60 and is currently sitting at 59. Check out the complete line history here.

WEATHER REPORT: There is a 20 percent chance of rain and a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast during the game. There will also be a five-to-six mile per hour wind gusting towards the northwest corner of the stadium.

INJURY REPORT:

Notre Dame - DL J. Haynes (questionable Sunday, ankle), CB A. White (questionable Sunday, possible suspension), LB T. Coney (questionable Sunday, possible suspension), WR K. Stepherson (questionable Sunday, possible suspension), RB D. Williams (questionable Sunday, possible suspension), RB J. Brent (out Sunday, foot), CB D. Butler (out Saturday, suspension), TE A. Jones (out Sunday, Academics).

Texas - OL Z. Shackelford (probable Sunday, undisclosed), RB C. Warren III (probable Sunday, ankle), RB D. Foreman (questionable Sunday, hamstring), OL B. Major (out Sunday, finger), RB R. Benard (out Sunday, knee), WR L. Joe (out Saturday, hamstring), WR D. McNeal (out Sunday, suspension).

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Embarrassing 38-3 season-opening loss last year to the Irish figures to have the Longhorns fully focused in this re-match. The fact that freshmen made a total of 77 starts for Texas last season brings an influx of youthful experience in 2016. With head coach Charlie Strorg just 11-14 in his first two seasons with UT, expect a big effort from the Steers tonight."

ABOUT NOTRE DAME (2015: 10-3): Zaire’s lone full game last season was the opener at home against Texas, during which he completed 19-of-22 passes for 313 yards and three touchdowns in a 38-3 thrashing. Kizer ended up with 21 passing TDs and 10 rushing scores in a breakout campaign and both quarterbacks are expected to go in Week 1, though the team has yet to decide which will take the first snap. “Haven't figured that out yet,” Fighting Irish coach Brian Kelly told reporters. “I mean, they’re both doing the same things that we've been asking them to do, and that may be something that we discuss in the locker room. It's not really an issue for us right now. It's not something that we've contemplated.”

ABOUT TEXAS (2015: 5-7): The Longhorns look like an improved team after closing the 2015 campaign with a win at Baylor and bringing in another top recruiting class. “The attitude of the team right now *– offense, defense, special teams – is something we didn't have last year, in my opinion,” Texas defensive coordinator Vance Bedford told reporters. “Guys are focused, ready to go. They're ready to prove that last year was a fluke.” Swoopes got the start last season at Notre Dame and went 7-of-22 for 93 yards as the Longhorns were outgained 527-163.

TRENDS:

* Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS in its last five games in September.
* Texas is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games versus Independent opponents.
* Over is 8-2 in Notre Dame's last 10 road games.
* Under is 23-10 in Texas' last 33 games overall.

CONSENSUS: The public is laying the points with the favorite, with 58 percent of wagers on Notre Dame. When it comes to the total, bettors are on the under with 62 percent of wagers on it.

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NCAAF

Sunday, September 4


Under went 31-23 in Saturday's NCAAF action. It's cashing at 61.7% very early on in the season.

[StarDust Bum]

Texas beats No. 10 Notre Dame 50-47 in 2OT thriller
September 4, 2016

AUSTIN, Texas (AP) Tyrone Swoopes scored on a lunging 6-yard touchdown run in the second overtime, giving Texas a 50-47 victory over No. 10 Notre Dame on Sunday night.

The Texas quarterback broke a tackle, burst up the middle and stretched the ball across the line as the Longhorns earned a huge victory for embattled coach Charlie Strong after two losing seasons.

Freshman Shane Buechele got the start over Swoopes, but the senior played a huge role in Texas' running game with two scores and big runs that punished Notre Dame defenders in overtime.

Buechele, the first freshman quarterback to start a Longhorns season opener since Bobby Layne in 1944, was impressive, with 280 yards passing and two long touchdown throws.

''I said a year ago we probably would have lost that football game because we didn't know how to finish,'' Strong said. ''You knew (Buechele) could handle it. You knew the stage wouldn't be too big.''

Notre Dame quarterback DeShone Kizer rallied the Irish from a 31-17 deficit in the third quarter and finished with 215 yards passing and five touchdowns.

Texas went ahead 37-35 on D'Onte Foreman's 18-yard touchdown run before Notre Dame blocked the extra point and Shaun Crawford returned it for 2-point score that tied it at 37 with just under 4 minutes left.

THE TAKEAWAY

Notre Dame: Coach Brian Kelly will have to consider scrapping the quarterback rotation between Kizer and Malik Zaire that sapped all momentum and helped dig the Irish into a big hole. Kizer was the only quarterback to move the Irish whether it was passing or throwing and Zaire played only one series of the second half.

''No final decision has been made,'' Kelly said. ''It's never easy playing two quarterbacks.''

Texas: A huge win for Strong, who is fighting for his job with a new quarterback and a new offense.

''We needed tonight to get this program back in the spotlight,'' Strong said. ''I know one game does not make a season. We have many more to go. But it's a great start.''

It's been said time and again in recent years, but the Longhorns sure look as if they've got their quarterback, despite a sputtering second half. Buechele was deadly accurate on his deep throws early, and had the presence to speed the snap when the Notre Dame defense was struggling, and had the poise the throw away to avoid sacks.

His only big mistake was a third quarter interception that set up a Kizer touchdown run in the Notre Dame rally.

UP NEXT

Notre Dame: The Irish play their home opener against Nevada on Saturday. The Wolf Pack beat Cal-Poly 30-27 in overtime in their first game.

Texas: Texas hosts Texas-El Paso, which beat New Mexico State 38-22.

[StarDust Bum]

ULL assistant fired after loss in opener
September 4, 2016

LAFAYETTE, La. (AP) Louisiana-Lafayette fired defensive coordinator Melvin Smith on Sunday, a day after a season-opening 45-10 loss to Boise State.

Ragin' Cajuns coach Mark Hudspeth said linebackers coach Mike Lucas will be the defensive coordinator for the remainder of the season.

Hudspeth said in a statement that ''we appreciate everything that Melvin has done for us since coming here, and we wish he and his family nothing but the best in the future.'' Hudspeth added that ''making a change is never easy, but we feel this was the necessary thing to do for the success of our program.''

Smith came to Louisiana-Lafayette last year after two seasons as Auburn's cornerbacks coach. He also has been an assistant at Mississippi State, Alabama and Texas A&M.

Louisiana-Lafayette hosts McNeese State on Saturday.

[StarDust Bum]

Monday, September 5

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OLE MISS (10 - 3) vs. FLORIDA ST (10 - 3) - 9/5/2016, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, September 5

8:00 PM
MISSISSIPPI vs. FLORIDA STATE
Mississippi is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Mississippi is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Florida State's last 12 games
Florida State is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games

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Monday, September 5

Mississippi @ Florida State

Game 211-212
September 5, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Mississippi
108.973
Florida State
102.203
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Mississippi
by 7
61
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Florida State
by 4 1/2
56 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Mississippi
(+4 1/2); Over

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Florida State QB Maguire (foot) is out here; redshirt freshman Francois is likely starter here. Seminoles have 16 starters back, with 10 back on offense- they’re 36-28-1 as favorites under Fisher. Ole Miss is 14-5-1 vs spread in last 20 non-SEC games, 11-4 in last 15 tries as an underdog, 6-1 in neutral field games; Rebels lost 6 starters on both sides of ball- their senior QB has 13 starts.

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No. 12 Mississippi vs. No. 4 Florida State (-4)

A Monday night contest caps the first full week of college football, with an 8 p.m. Eastern kickoff.

Florida State has consistently been in the national championship chase lately, winning it all in the 2013 season and making the first-ever playoff in 2014 – where it lost to Oregon in one semifinal – before dropping off just a bit last year. The Seminoles went 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS in 2015, including a 38-24 loss to Houston as a 7.5-point chalk in the Peach Bowl.

Mississippi has been on the rise the past few years under Hugh Freeze, going 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS in a 2015 campaign capped by a 48-20 shellacking of Oklahoma State laying 7.5 points in the Sugar Bowl.

“It’s been a roller coaster of line movement for this Monday night matchup,” Lester said. “For the first month and a half, the money was heavy on Florida State, sending the spread to as high as -6.5. Once it hit that peak, we started seeing some sharper money on Ole Miss. The number dropped to -3.5 a couple of weeks ago. We’ve seen both sides of the betting spectrum.”

[StarDust Bum]

Ole Miss, FSU meet in showdown
September 4, 2016

Mississippi coach Hugh Freeze has been joking for months about how neutral his team's neutral-site game against Florida State in Orlando, Florida really is.

After all, Camping World Stadium is right in the backyard of many Florida State fans. For most Ole Miss fans, it's at least a 10-hour car ride to central Florida.

Not that Freeze is complaining. When No. 11 Ole Miss meets No. 4 Florida State on Monday night, it will cap off an opening week of marquee matchups and the showdown will be the focal point of the college football world.

And that's exactly what the Rebels have wanted.

''It is a difficult task, but we relish this opportunity,'' Freeze said. ''It gives our football team a chance to play on a national stage against one of the top teams in America. That's the kind of games we want to be in and we have an opportunity to expand our brand.''

Both teams expect to have a prolific offense this season, but for very different reasons.

Ole Miss will lean on senior quarterback Chad Kelly, who threw for 4,042 yards and ran for 500 more last season. He has experienced receivers around him, including Damore'ea Stringfellow, Quincy Adeboyejo and tight end Evan Engram.

Florida State quarterback Deondre Francois will be making his first career start, so expect the Seminoles to rely on star running back Dalvin Cook, who starts the year among the favorites to win the Heisman Trophy.

The Seminoles also have an experienced defense led by safety Derwin James, who was second on the team as a freshman last season with 91 tackles. He also added 9+ tackles for a loss.

''We're ready to showcase what we've been putting in the work for all year,'' James said. ''I'm very excited. Everyone is excited. We're anxious. I feel like it's going to be a great game. Two great teams.''

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Here are some things to watch when Ole Miss faces Florida State on Monday:

BLIND SIDE: Ole Miss junior Rod Taylor was the surprise winner of the left tackle job during preseason camp. The 6-foot-3, 329-pounder has always been talented, it's just that his body type is more suited for guard, which is where he spent most of his time in previous seasons. Now, he'll be charged with protecting quarterback Chad Kelly's blindside.

KELLY'S ENCORE: Kelly was an unknown at this time last year, but led the Rebels to a 10-win season in 2015. Now he'll try for a repeat performance without former stars, including left tackle Laremy Tunsil and receiver Laquon Treadwell, who are now in the NFL.

COOK'S CAMPAIGN: Cook begins his Heisman campaign in a stadium where he helped lead Miami Central to a state title. Cook has eight straight 100-yard games when they take place in the state of Florida and is averaging 159.8 yards (180 carries, 1,278 yards and 15 touchdowns) during that span. Last year's offensive line, led by left tackle Rod Johnson, also returns intact.

KEEP AN EYE ON: Florida State junior outside linebacker Matthew Thomas. He missed all of last season due to a shoulder injury and team issues. Thomas' quickness and ability to play both the run and pass could free up defensive linemen DeMarcus Walker and Josh Sweat from double teams.

HERMINE HANGOVER? With power out in 80 percent of Tallahassee and much of Florida State's campus due to Hurricane Hermine, the Seminoles had to improvise during their final two days of practice. Fisher went through two hurricanes while he was an assistant at LSU - Katrina and Rita - and said balancing personal and football priorities in the aftermath of storms is always challenging. ''That's the way life is sometimes,'' Fisher said. ''Hopefully that's a good lesson for life.''

[StarDust Bum]

Ole Miss vs. Florida State
September 4, 2016

Ole Miss and Florida State will collide Monday night at the Florida Citrus Bowl in Orlando. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

As of early Sunday night, most betting shops had FSU installed as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 59 points. The Rebels were +180 on the money line (risk $100 to win $180). For first-half wagers, the Seminoles were favored by three with a total of 29.5.

FSU returns 11 starters on offense and six on defense. However, one of those starters, QB Sean Maguire, is listed as ‘doubtful’ due to a foot injury sustained in early August. Therefore, redshirt freshman Deondre Francois will get the starting nod at QB.

Francois has one of the nation’s top offensive lines in front of him one of the country’s premier running backs behind him. Dalvin Cook garnered first-team All-American honors last season despite dealing with a nagging hamstring injury for a decent chunk of the year. Cook produced 1,691 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns while averaging 7.4 yards per carry. Cook added 24 receptions for 224 yards and one TD.

All of the WRs are back, including the trio of Travis Rudolph, Kermit Whitfield and Jesus Wilson. Rudolph is the best of the bunch, hauling in 59 receptions for 916 yards and seven TDs. Whitfield had 57 catches for 798 yards and six TDs last year, while Wilson brought down 58 balls for 622 yards and three TDs.

FSU’s defense gave up 17.5 points per game in ’15. This unit is led by sophomore strong safety Derwin James, who was selected to the Freshman All-American team after recording 91 tackles, 4.5 sacks, five tackles behind the line and three QB hurries. Senior DE DeMarcus Walker was a first-team All-ACC selection last year when he had 58 tackles, 10.5 sacks, five tackles behind the line, five passes broken up, four QB hurries and one interception.

Jimbo Fisher’s team went 10-3 straight up and 8-5 against the spread in ’15. After racing out to a 6-0 start, the ‘Noles dropped a 22-16 decision at Ga. Tech. The Yellow Jackets blocked a potential game-winning field goal by FSU on the final play of regulation. The kick still went about 20 yards down the field, but a Ga. Tech player scooped it up, caught a couple of good blocks and took it the house for a walk-off TD.

FSU lost again a few weeks later at Clemson, 23-13. Fisher’s squad won its last three regular-season games, which included a 27-2 win at Florida. That run earned the ‘Noles an invite to the Peach Bowl in Atlanta at the Ga. Dome. The result was a 38-24 loss to Houston as a seven-point ‘chalk.’

Ole Miss also finished ’15 with a 10-3 record, going 9-4 ATS. The Rebels started 4-0, including a second straight win over Alabama. They were ranked third in the nation going into Gainesville to face an undefeated Florida team that was ranked No. 25. The Gators jumped all over Ole Miss and dominated from start to finish in a 38-10 victory as 6.5-point home underdogs.

Despite taking another loss to Memphis, Hugh Freeze’s club remained in control of its destiny to win the SEC West and earn a trip to the SEC Championship Game for the first time in school history. But then Arkansas came to Oxford in November.

Ole Miss appeared poised to win the game when Arkansas TE Hunter Henry was going down short of the first-down marker on a 4th-and-25 play in overtime. However, Henry lateraled the ball back and across the field before his knee hit the ground. The ball took a perfect bounce and landed in RB Alex Collins’s hands. He broke a tackle and got a block and then wisely waited for another block before getting the first down in miraculous fashion. Moments later, a face mask penalty kept the Razorbacks’ drive alive and they eventually scored and Brandon Allen’s three-yard run on the two-point conversion gave the Hogs a remarkable 53-52 win.

But Ole Miss would respond with two outstanding wins vs. LSU (38-17) at home and at Mississippi State (38-27) to earn its first Sugar Bowl berth in decades. The Rebels blasted Oklahoma State 48-20 as 8.5-point favorites in New Orleans.

Then on the night of the NFL Draft’s first round, an event that should’ve been a celebration of the accomplishments of Freeze’s tenure while three Rebels were selected instead turned into an embarrassing fiasco. Just minutes before the draft started, Laramy Tunsil’s Instagram account was hacked and a video of Tunsil smoking weed with a gas mask on appeared. Then a text-message exchange between Tunsil and a member of Freeze’s staff was posted to Tunsil’s social-media accounts. The content of the texts revolved around cash payments to Tunsil.

Then during the post-draft interview live on national television, Tunsil was asked about the social-media posts and if it was true that Ole Miss coaches paid him. To this he responded, “I would have to say yes.”

Since then, an NCAA investigation has hovered over the program and all of Oxford. The investigation isn’t complete, so it doesn’t appear any potential sanctions will harm this 2016 team. But it has been a major distraction and incredible public-relations nightmare.

With that said, I would think the Ole Miss players are thrilled to just get on the field and be able to put a tumultuous offseason in the rearview mirror. Although Tunsil, WR Laquon Treadwell and DE Robert Nkemdiche are all gone after being first-round picks, there’s still plenty of talent remaining on the roster.

Chad ‘Swag’ Kelly is back for his senior year after producing a record-breaking season in ’15. Kelly completed 65.1 percent of his passes for 4,042 yards with a 31/13 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also rushed for 500 yards and 10 TDs.

Kelly has one of the SEC’s best TEs in Evan Engram, who had 38 catches for 464 yards and two TDs last season. He has two other veterans to target in Quincy Adeboyejo and Damore’ea Stringfellow. Adeboyejo had 38 receptions for 604 yards and seven TDs in ’15, while Stringfellow had 36 grabs for 503 yards and five TDs.

Leading rusher Jaylen Walton is gone, but the Rebels are set at RB with a pair of experienced players in Akeem Judd and Eugene Brazley. Judd and Brazley had YPC averages of 5.5 and 10.1, respectively.

Ole Miss returns five starters on offense and five on defense. The ’15 ‘D’ allowed 22.6 PPG. Three of the top four tacklers have departed, but the leading tackler is back. That would be LB DeMarquis Gates, who had 76 tackles. Marquis Haynes was a second-team All-SEC selection thanks to 43 tackles, 10 sacks, 6.5 tackles behind the line and eight QB hurries. DBs Tony Bridges and Tony[ Conner are other notable playmakers for this unit.

Senior starting DE Fadol Brown is listed as ‘questionable vs. FSU due to a foot injury. Brown had 32 tackles, one sack, 3.5 tackles behind the line and 10 QB hurries in ’15.

Ole Miss played a neutral-field game for its opener two seasons ago. The Rebels beat Boise State by a 35-13 count as a 10-point favorite at the Ga. Dome in Atlanta.

FSU did the same for its opener in ’14, capturing a 37-31 win over Oklahoma State as an 18.5-point ‘chalk’ at Jerry World in Arlington, TX. Since 1991, the ‘Noles are 7-0 in season opener played at neutral sites.

During Fisher’s six-year tenure, FSU has won eight of 11 games on a neutral field, but it has limped to a 4-7 spread record. In fact, the ‘Noles have failed to cover the number in four consecutive neutral-site contests.

Meanwhile, Ole Miss owns a 4-1 record both SU and ATS in five games at a neutral venue during Freeze’s five-year tenure.

FSU’s starting center Alec Eberle is ‘questionable’ due to recent issues with migraine headaches.

[StarDust Bum]

Monday’s college football game

Florida State QB Maguire (foot) is out here; redshirt freshman Francois is likely starter here. Seminoles have 16 starters back, with 10 back on offense- they’re 36-28-1 as favorites under Fisher. Ole Miss is 14-5-1 vs spread in last 20 non-SEC games, 11-4 in last 15 tries as an underdog, 6-1 in neutral field games; Rebels lost 6 starters on both sides of ball- their senior QB has 13 starts. Last 5+ years, SEC teams are 27-19 vs spread when facing an ACC squad. SEC teams are 4-7 vs spread this weekend; ACC teams are 1-3.

[StarDust Bum]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS:

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 39-28-2 58.21% +4100

O/U Picks 9-8-0 52.94% +100


MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 5

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MISS at FSU 08:00 PM

FSU -5.0

U 58.0

[StarDust Bum]

Francois, FSU rally past Ole Miss 45-34
September 5, 2016

ORLANDO, Fla. (AP) Redshirt freshman quarterback Deondre Francois completed 33 of 52 passes for 419 yards and two touchdowns while running for another 59 yards in leading No.4 Florida State to a 45-34 win over No.11 Mississippi on Monday night.

Francois, the fourth freshman to start the season at quarterback in FSU history, led the largest comeback in Seminoles history - 22 points - after a shaky start in the classic SEC-ACC showdown at Camping World Stadium.

Francois and the Seminoles, on the verge of becoming the third top-5 team to lose in the opening week, scored 33 consecutive points during a stretch from late in the second quarter until early in the fourth to overcome a 28-6 deficit late in the second quarter.

With Ole Miss daring Francois to pass by stacking the run to stop Heisman Trophy hopeful Dalvin Cook, the freshman showed poise by making critical throws with his arm and also picking up big yards with his legs.

Ricky Aguayo, another freshman, converting an FSU-record six field goals on six attempts - breaking a mark shared by his brother Roberto.

Ole Miss quarterback Chad Kelly had a strong first half but FSU defensive end DeMarcus Walker and the rest of the defense started getting to him after halftime to slow the no-huddle offense down. The Seminoles forced Kelly into back-to-back turnovers early in the third quarter on an interception and a fumble on a hit by Walker. Both turnovers resulted in FSU touchdowns as the Seminoles took a 29-28 lead and never looked back while scoring on nine straight possessions between late in the first half and into the fourth quarter.

THE TAKEAWAY

Ole Miss: The Rebels' up-tempo offense is potent but big mistakes by Kelly under pressure took away any momentum. Kelly had three touchdown passes in fourth quarter but his turnovers (four) brought the offense to a standstill.

Florida State: Francois is definitely the real deal. His arm talent is impressive and his willingness to stay in the pocket to take the big hit on release was uncanny for a first time starter. Running back Dalvin Cook found little running room early but he contributed big as a receiver with a career-high seven catches for 101 yards while rushing for 91 yards on 23 carries for the night.

UP NEXT

Ole Miss: The Rebels return home to host Wofford of the FCS on Saturday. Terriers (1-0) are coming off a 21-7 win over Tennessee Tech.

Florida State: The Seminoles will host Charleston Southern of the FCS on Saturday. The Buccaneers (1-1) are coming off a 57-7 win over Kentucky State.

[StarDust Bum]

Books smiling after Week 1
September 5, 2016

It was all smiles in Las Vegas for the first weekend of college football, or least for those on one side of the counter as results started posting with underdogs coming through in some of the most bet games of the weekend.

Bettors who took straight bet value with the 'dogs did well, but the majority of bettors are recreational parlay players who love the favorites and top ranked teams and that's who the books made their big win off of over the weekend.

"We did well each of the first three days starting with Tennessee failing to cover on Thursday as our big game and then Army winning outright on Friday," said MGM Resorts sports book hub manager Jeff Stoneback. "We got crushed with Bama rolling Saturday, but almost got all those losses back when Clemson failed to cover."

In a prelude to all the upsets that were about to happen, No. 9 Tennessee got taken to overtime Thursday night at home by 20-point underdog Appalachian State, before winning 20-13.

And then the first big favorite fell on Friday as Temple, who returned all their key offensive players from a 10-4 team last year, got manhandled, 28-13, in a loss to Army who won only two games last year. Sharp bettors had been on Army from the moment numbers were posted two months ago taking +21.5 and by kickoff it was as low as +15.5.

Through Friday's games on the regular board (not including extra board games) the favorites had gone 4-8 against the spread and the 'under' was 11-1. The recreational parlay bettors love betting the favorites and OVER as well and it helped the books come into Saturday's games with a huge cushion of cash.

"Covers by Appalachian State, Kansas State, Auburn, West Virginia and outright wins by Wisconsin and Houston paved the way for a solid opening week," said Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick.

"The public still cashed in heavily on Alabama. Western Michigan, Army, Southern Miss and Georgia were also tickets that players cashed in on."

No. 3 Oklahoma got the books' Saturday house party started by being upset 33-23 by No. 15 Houston who didn't need the points (+13.5). The books would get another bonus when No. 5 LSU (-12) would lose 16-14 to unranked Wisconsin at Lambeau Field.

"Wisconsin, Auburn and Houston were our best games, in that order," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal, who was also able to overcome the one-sided Alabama wagering late.

"Yeah, everyone bet Alabama and Clemson parlays so we would have given a lot of Wisconsin money back if Clemson kicked that late field goal. We had 84 percent of the tickets and 80 percent of the money bet on Clemson."

No. 1 Alabama (-10.5) crushed USC 52-6, while No. 2 Clemson (-8) looked sluggish in a 19-13 win at Auburn.

There were nine underdogs winning outright on the regular board which included 28-point favorite Mississippi State losing 21-20 at home to South Alabama and 18-point favorite Ohio losing at home to Texas State, 56-54. On the extra board, Washington State was a 27.5-point home favorite and lost 45-42 to Eastern Washington.

Through Sunday's regular board games, the favorites went 17-21-1 ATS and the 'under' went 28-11, which is the perfect recipe for success for the sports books.

"It was sure nice to see football back because we got roughed up in baseball last month," said Stoneback.

"Saturday was much busier than anticipated; the room was full, continuous lines at the windows, people were ready for football. The only thing we really did poorly on was totals, which is an on-going weekly trend with college football."

CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS

The Westgate SuperBook updated their college football championship odds on Sunday and while Alabama is still the favorite at 9/2 odds after their thrashing of USC, teams with one loss already had their odds raised.

Oklahoma is now 20/1, LSU 15/1, USC 100/1 and UCLA 200/1.

Clemson, Ohio State and Florida State are all 6/1 with Michigan at 8/1.

EARLY NUMBERS AT SOUTH POINT DO WELL

South Point sports book director Chris Andrews posted week 1 college football numbers in mid-May, the earliest ever seen in Las Vegas, and when other books started posting numbers later his started to merge closer to the market as wagers pushed him.

The one game that stood out like a sore thumb with a major difference of opinion was Andrews opening Ball State as a 5.5-point road favorite at Georgia State. The market was set the other way with Georgia State as a 3-point favorite and it was bet higher to -5 by kickoff Friday night. Ball State won 31-21. "The early numbers we're very successful," Andrews said, "some good, some bad, but that one (Ball State) was real good."

[StarDust Bum]

Opening Line Report - Week 2
September 5, 2016

Analyzing the Bounce-back Factor

After a thrilling opening weekend of college football, replete with marque matchups, major upsets and fantastic finishes, Week 2 doesn’t offer much of an encore. Mismatches abound, and there are a gulf-like point spreads to be found all over the betting board.

The biggest number on the card is Oklahoma laying about 45 points to Louisiana-Monroe. The Sooners, of course, were knocked from their No. 3 national ranking via a 33-23 loss to Houston to get the upset train started.

Notre Dame, UCLA and LSU also face severely overmatched opponents in Week 2 after losing unexpectedly in their season openers.

Handicappers who prescribe to the bounce-back theory better be prepared to pay a premium on these teams. The fact that they’re coming off a loss and in desperate need of a win to avoid going 0-2 and watching their national championship hopes obliterated is factored into the betting lines, said John Avello, vice president of race and sports at The Wynn.

"What I see this week is rebounding," Avello said. "I think you’ll see some teams this week that maybe played a quality team last week and had trouble but will expect to bounce back this week."

The bounce-back factor is indeed built into Avello’s numbers, the first posted each week in Las Vegas on college football.

"It’s in my LSU number, it’s in my Notre Dame number, it’s in my UCLA number," Avello said.

Futures Adjustments

In no sport is a season-opening loss more damaging to a team’s national title chances than college football. With a second loss, it becomes very difficult to make a case for an invitation to the four-team playoff.

There have been significant adjustments, therefore, to the futures odds of LSU (8/1 to 15/1) Oklahoma (12/1 to 20/1), Notre Dame (20/1 to 30/1) and UCL A (60/1 to 100/1) at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

LSU is an interesting case. Playing in the SEC, there are scenarios by which a two-loss Tigers team can get into the playoffs.

To SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons, though, nearly doubling LSU’s futures price was less about these viable scenarios and more about how LSU looked against the Badgers.

"LSU took on a ton of future book money – the most money of any team," Salmons said. "They were talkin’ em up like they’re an NFL team, but you watch them, and it’s the same old LSU offense . They just run the ball, they have no quarterback, they play football like it’s 1965.

"It’s hard to believe that team could beat Alabama, playing that kind of style. That’s not the kind of team that beats Alabama. Playing slow, running the ball and all that."

Salmons added, "Realistically, they probably should be a little bit higher (than 15/1). The Wisconsin game is not the game you’d figure they’d lose."

Early Week 2 Line Moves

Here are spreads that moved 2 points or more in the favorite’s direction in the first 24 hours of wagering at The Wynn.

Penn State at Pittsburgh
Opening line: Pitt -4
After 24 hours: Pitt -6

Bookmaker’s take: "Interesting game. It used to be a huge rivalry, and they haven’t played in 16 years," said Salmons. "Penn State has a good chance to beat Pittsburgh. Penn State is being underrated right now."

Tulsa at Ohio State
Opening line: Ohio State -27
After 24 hours: Ohio State -29

UT-San Antonio at Colorado State
Opening line: Colorado State -9.5
After 24 hours: Colorado State -11.5

Idaho at Washington
Opening line: Washington -35
After 24 hours: Washington -37

Middle Tennessee State at Vanderbilt
Opening line: Vanderbilt -3
After 24 hours: Vanderbilt -5.5

Washington State at Boise State
Opening line: Boise State -9.5
After 24 hours: Boise State -12.5

Here are spreads that moved 2 points or more in the underdog’s direction in the first 24 hours of wagering at The Wynn.

Arkansas at TCU
Opening line: TCU -9.5
After 24 hours: TCU -7.5

Central Florida at Michigan
Opening line: Michigan -38
After 24 hours: Michigan -35

UConn at Navy
Opening line: Navy -8
After 24 hours: Navy -5

BYU at Utah
Opening line: Utah -5
After 24 hours: Utah -3

Bookmaker’s take: "BYU owes Utah from (last season’s Las Vegas Bowl), when they were down 35-0 in the first quarter," Salmons said. The Cougars scored 28 straight after that but came up short in the 35-28 loss.

Texas Tech at Arizona State
Opening line: Arizona State -5.5
After 24 hours: Arizona State -3

Bookmaker’s take: Salmons agrees with this move on the Red Raiders. "I think Texas Tech can beat Arizona State," he said.