NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 1 (Friday, August 26 - Monday, September 5)

[Udog]

NCAAF

Friday, September 2

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Friday's NCAAF Game of the Day: Kansas State at Stanford
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Star running back Christian McCaffrey returns for his junior season to lead Stanford, which captured last year’s Pac-12 and Rose Bowl titles.

Kansas State Wildcats at (7) Stanford Cardinal (-14.5, 48.5)

After suffering a costly season-opening loss a year ago, No. 7 Stanford looks to avoid a similar misstep Friday as the Cardinal welcomes Kansas State to Palo Alto. Star running back Christian McCaffrey returns for his junior season to lead Stanford, which captured last year’s Pac-12 and Rose Bowl titles but was kept out of the College Football Playoff due largely to its early loss to Northwestern.

The game features two unproven quarterbacks in Stanford senior Ryan Burns and Kansas State junior Jesse Ertz, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in last year’s opener against South Dakota. In addition to the two signal-callers, all eyes will be on McCaffrey, who broke Barry Sanders’ record for all-purpose yards in a season (3,864) and will receive another heavy workload this season after finishing second in last year’s Heisman Trophy race. “I’m going to start giving him some of my responsibilities,” coach David Shaw told reporters. “The guy has handled everything else. We’re going to push him harder, push him further, and see if there’s more he can do.” McCaffrey will look to launch Stanford’s national title push with a big game against Kansas State, which was picked to finish eighth in the Big 12 preseason media poll.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1.

LINE HISTORY: Stanford opened this game favored by 16-points over visiting Kansas State, but since then money has come back on the Wildcats, with the Cardinal now favored by two converted touchdowns.

The total has also seen quite a bit of movement. Since opening at the nice round number of 50, it was quickly bet down to 48.5 and then as low as 47.5. Money has come back on the Over since then, with the total back at 48.5 heading into Friday. Check out the complete line history here.

INJURY REPORT:

Kansas State - No injuries to report.

Stanford - RB B. Love (out Friday, lower body).

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a beautiful night for football at Stanford Stadium. The forecast is clear and will be in the low 70's at kickoff. There will be a 10 mph wind blowing from the west at kickoff but that will quickly diminish to 5 mph.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We have seen some sharp action come in on Stanford this morning (Thursday) moving our line from Stanford -14 to -14.5, with 62% of the action on Stanford to cover. Our 48 point total on this game is seeing just over 75% of the action on the OVER."

ABOUT KANSAS STATE (2015: 6-7 SU, 6-7 ATS, 8-5 O/U): Ertz hasn’t attempted a pass in a college football game but coach Bill Snyder said his consistency in camp gave him the edge over Joe Hubener and Alex Delton, adding that all three could see time against Stanford. There are plenty of question marks surrounding the inexperienced receiving corps, but junior college transfer Byron Pringle shined in the spring game and could make an immediate impact. Kansas State’s defense allowed 452.2 yards and 31.5 points per game last season but could improve dramatically behind linebacker Elijah Lee, preseason All-Big 12 defensive end Jordan Willis and senior safety Dante Barnett, who missed nearly all of last season due to injury.

ABOUT STANFORD (2015: 12-2 SU, 10-4 ATS, 8-6 O/U): Burns is a 6-foot-5 senior who has thrown one college pass but won the starting quarterback job over junior Keller Chryst after both battled to replace four-year starter Kevin Hogan in the fall. Besides McCaffrey, Burns has plenty of help on the offensive side, including wide receivers Michael Rector and Trenton Irwin along with tight end Dalton Schultz, who caught 10 passes for 121 yards last season. Stanford forced just 14 turnovers last season, but the physical defense returns six starters, including junior end Solomon Thomas, who had 10 1/2 tackles for loss last season

TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Pac-12.
* Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Friday games.
* Over is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Cardinal last 5 games overall.


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[Udog]

College football four-point stance: Week 1 pointspread picks and predictions

Inside information. Those are the two words that every sports bettor on the planet finds himself in consistent search of, yet they are the two words that routinely prove to be the most difficult to obtain, save for a select few plugged-in individuals.

Inside information can change the game. It has the ability to both put you ahead of the masses of casual public bettors who wander up to the counter just moments before kickoff while simultaneously eliminating any personal bias you may experience toward jerseys, players and coaches. Knowledge is power, as they say, and if you happen to find yourself "in the know" when it comes to a critical piece of previously unknown information, you also happen to find yourself with the power to better your position.

I don’t possess any inside information when it comes to Saturday’s 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff between the No. 5 LSU Tigers and unranked Wisconsin Badgers at Lambeau Field in Wisconsin. But I’m willing to bet that Dave Aranda does.

If you haven’t heard of Aranda before today, he’s the 39-year-old defensive coordinator of the LSU Tigers who utilizes an attacking 3-4 base defense complete with exotic blitz schemes courtesy of the linebacker position.

Aranda will play an integral role in Saturday’s marquee showdown between the Tigers and the Badgers because prior to his arrival in Baton Rouge before the start of this season, he spent three years serving as the defensive coordinator of the very same Wisconsin team that LSU will look to pummel this weekend.

That’s right. Aranda has inside information as to both the personnel and playbook that the Badgers will be working with Saturday, which puts his new program in an extremely favorable position entering their season opener.

In addition to Aranda’s unique knowledge of the Wisconsin roster and playbook, the Tigers return 17 starters from last year’s 9-3 team, which includes Heisman hopeful running back Leonard Fournette (1,953 yards, third in NCAA) and junior signal-caller Brandon Harris, who now weighs 220 pounds after arriving in Baton Rouge three years ago as a skinny 175-pounder.

The Badgers will counter with a roster that returns just four starters on offense and a quarterback in Bart Houston who has attempted just 51 career passes during his three seasons in Madison.

Starting quarterback experience, an elite rushing attack, a fly-to-the-football defensive unit and a defensive coordinator with intimate knowledge of his opponent. That sounds like a play worth making to me.

Pick: LSU -10.5

No. 18 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 22 North Carolina Tar Heels

*Game will be played at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta.

When: Saturday, September 3 at 5:30pm eastern
Spread: Georgia -3

Analysis: UNC head coach Larry Fedora guided the Tar Heels to their first 11-win season since 1997 last year thanks to an offense that averaged an ACC-best 40.7 points per game. Fourteen starters, including six of the program’s Top 7 receivers from last year, return to try and claim the university’s first back-to-back string of double-digit winning seasons in nearly two decades.

The Bulldogs enter Year 1 of the Kirby Smart era with ineffective deep-ball quarterback Greyson Lambert under center and a Heisman candidate at running back in 5-foot-10, 220-pound beast Nick Chubb.

But the key matchup here comes down to a battle between underrated North Carolina running back Elijah Hood and a shaky Georgia front seven. Give the edge to the Tar Heels.

Pick: North Carolina +3

New Mexico State Aggies at UTEP Miners

When: Saturday, September 3 at 8:00pm eastern
Spread: UTEP -9

Analysis: The Aggies enter their season opener in El Paso down top linebacker Derek Ibekwe and stud running back Larry Rose III, the centerpiece of a New Mexico State offensive attack who rushed for 1,651 yards (6.9 YPC) and 14 touchdowns a year ago.

As for UTEP, running back Aaron Jones returns to the field this season after missing almost all of the 2015 campaign due to an ankle injury. Jones amassed 1,614 total yards and 14 scores on 272 touches two years ago and is widely regarded as one of Conference USA’s most exciting players.

Note that New Mexico State is 0-5 ATS over its last five matchups with C-USA opposition and 1-4 ATS over its last five non-conference games, while UTEP is 10-3 ATS over its last 13 home dates.

Pick: UTEP -9

No. 2 Clemson Tigers at Auburn Tigers

When: Saturday, September 3 at 9:00pm eastern
Spread: Clemson -7

Analysis: My, how the mighty have fallen, as the Auburn Tigers went from the BCS Championship game in 2013 to a program that has notched just 15 total victories over the last two seasons.

Gus Malzahn is working with both a depleted defensive unit and a dicey quarterback situation that features pedestrian Sean White under center, while Clemson rolls into town with Heisman frontrunner Deshaun Watson leading the charge.

Note that Auburn starting free safety Stephen Roberts is suspended for the season opener due to misdemeanor charges levied for carrying an unlicensed firearm and attempting to elude a police officer. In addition, Clemson is 6-2 ATS over its last eight non-conference games while Auburn is an abysmal 1-10 ATS over its last 11 home contests.

Pick: Clemson -7

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 1


Saturday 7:30am game– If you get up this early to watch a game, you deserve info on it:

Boston College vs Georgia Tech (Ireland)– Teams are meeting for first time in four years; Tech won last two meetings- underdogs won three of last four SU. BC was 0-8 SU in ACC LY; they’re 10-7-1 vs spread as underdogs under Addazio. Eagles have 15 starters back, plus grad transfer QB who started 22 games at Kentucky. Tech is 6-10 vs spread when favored the last two years; they have 11 starters back, plus senior QB who has started 26 games. Jackets were 1-7 SU in ACC LY. Under was 10-2 in BC games LY, but now they have a competent QB.

[Udog]

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 1


Sat – Sept. 3

Georgia Tech at Boston College, 7:30 AM ET
Georgia Tech: 24-8 ATS in the first two weeks of the season
Boston College: 38-41 ATS in the first month of the season

[Udog]

Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet and odds

Nick Chubb returns to action as Georgia meets North Carolina in a "neutral site" game in Atlanta. The Bulldogs are currently 3-point faves.

The first college football Saturday of the season is finally here and the full slate of games can be tough to navigate for bettors. So we bring you our Top 25 betting cheat sheet to handicap the best games of the day.

No. 3 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 13 Houston Cougars (+12.5, 68)

* Baker Mayfield returns for the Sooners, who averaged 43.5 points last year, after throwing for 3,700 yards and 36 touchdowns with seven interceptions in his first season after transferring from Texas Tech. Mayfield will be joined in the backfield by Samaje Perine (1,349 yards, league-high 16 rushing TDs) and Joe Mixon (753 yards, 11 total TDs), who helped the Sooners to a 300-yard rushing average over the last six regular-season games in 2015. Oklahoma is 18-2 straight up and 14-6 ATS in regular-season games away from home over the last four seasons, including 5-0 SU/ATS last season.

* Houston will hope to build on the momentum for last season. Senior quarterback Greg Ward Jr. is back. He threw for 2,828 yards, rushed for 1,100 more and recorded 38 total touchdowns to lead the Cougars to 13 wins - including a 38-24 upset of Florida State in the Peach Bowl. Senior linebacker Steven Taylor (92 tackles, team-high 10 sacks) leads an experienced defense that led the country in turnovers (35) and allowed 108.9 rushing yards last year.

LINE HISTORY:

Oklahoma and their high-powered offense opened as 10-point road chalk, but that hasn't stopped bettors from backing the Sooners, who have pushed the number all the way to -12.5.

Meanwhile, the total has seen less movement. The number opened at a high 68, was bet down to 67.5, but has since bounced back to the opening number.

TRENDS:

* Oklahoma is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games in September.
* Houston is 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games.
* Under is 5-1 in Oklahoma's last six non-conference games.
* Over is 4-1-1 in Houston's last six non-conference games.

Bowling Green Falcons at No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes (-27.5, 67)

* A 31-point setback in the GoDaddy Bowl left a sour taste in the mouths of the Falcons, but it did not ruin a quality year in which the team averaged 42.2 points and 546.8 yards per game. Mike Jinks, formerly of Texas Tech, takes over on the sideline for Bowling Green, which lost coach Dino Babers to Syracuse last winter.

* The Buckeyes return only six starters - three on each side of the ball - which is the fewest among all FBS schools , but two of those are junior quarterback J.T. Barrett and senior center Pat Elflein. So the offense should be in good hands. Additionally Urban Meyer led teams are 14-0 SU in opening games and 8-3 ATS (There was no line in three openers).

LINE HISTORY:

The Buckeyes opened as heavy 27.5-point favorites against the Falcons of Bowling Green, but even that much chalk didn't scare away bettors. The line moved up a point to Ohio State -28.5, before finally coming back down a bit to settle at -28.

As for the total, bettors are hammering the over. The number opened at a fairly high 62.5, but has shot up since, moving to 63.5 earlier in the week and then jumping to 65 and finally 67 over the last two days.

TRENDS:

* Bowling Green finished last season going 7-2 ATS in its last nine games.
* Ohio State is 2-6 ATS in itd last eight home games.
* The Under went 6-0 in Falcons final six road games last season.
* The Under is 9-3 in Buckeyes last 12 games overall.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at No. 8 Michigan Wolverines (-40, 54.5)

* The Rainbow Warriors face a tall order in Ann Arbour on Saturday. Not are they clearly outmatched against the Wolverines, the travel they have had to endure has been brutal. Hawaii flew over 5,000 miles to Sydney, Australia to open the college football season against California but suffered a 51-31 defeat just last Thursday and had to turn around and travel another 4,442 miles to Ann Arbor.

* Michigan boasts 14 returning starters, including Sports Illustrated pre-season All Americans Jabrill Peppers, Jourdan Lewis and Jake Butt, but will have to replace quarterback Jake Rudock, who was selected in the sixth round of the 2016 NFL Draft by the Detroit Lions. Wilton Speight and John O'Korn are locked in a tight battle for the starting quarterback job; the winner will have standout senior wideouts Jehu Chesson and Amara Darboh at their disposal.

LINE HISTORY:

Michigan opened this game as a massive 42-point favorite, but bettors actually think that may be a little too much chalk, even with all the travel Hawaii has to deal with. The number has moved down two points to currently sit at Michigan -40.

The total has seen some movement since opening at 54.5. It got bumped up one point to 55.5, before coming back down to the current number of 55.

TRENDS:

* Hawaii is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games dating back to last season.
* Michigan is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games in September.
* Over is 6-0 in Hawaii's last six games dating back to last season.
* The Over went 8-0 in Michigan's final eight games last season.

Rutgers Scarlett Knights at No. 18 Washington Huskies (-26.5, 54)

* Rutgers is coming off a four-win season - matching its fewest over the past 13 seasons - and is starting over under first-year coach Chris Ash, the former defensive coordinator at Ohio State. A shaky Rutgers defense allowed 46 or more points on five occasions last season but has two standouts in senior defensive tackle Darius Hamilton (24.5 career tackles for losses) and senior strong safety Anthony Cioffi (four interceptions in 2015).

* No. 18 Washington enters a season ranked for the first time since 2003, mostly due to the potential of sophomore quarterback Jake Browning. Browning passed for 2,955 yards and 16 touchdowns last season and finished the campaign strong as Washington averaged 47 points over its last three games. Sophomore running back Myles Gaskin rushed for 1,302 yards last season - eighth most in school history - and had eight 100-yard outings while rushing for 14 touchdowns.

LINE HISTORY:

The Huskies opened as heavy 25-point chalk against the Scarlett Knights and bettors didn't think that was enough, moving the line as high as -27. Since then it has come back down slightly to sit currently at 26.5. The total hasn't seen much movement. The number opened at 55, was bet down to 54.5 and then to the current number of 54.

TRENDS:

* Rutgers ended last season going 1-5 ATS in its last six games.
* Washington is 4-0 ATS in its last four non-conference games.
* Under is 5-2 in Rutgers last seven non-conference games.
* The Over went 4-1 in Washington's last five games at the end of last season.

Miami (OH) Redhawks at No. 15 Iowa Hawekeyes (-27.5, 51)

* The Redhawks return 10 starters on offense, including four linemen that should help sophomore quarterback Billy Bahl progress. Bahl completed just 44.8 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and 13 interceptions but has senior Rokeem Williams (33 catches, 543 yards) and junior Sam Martin (29, 542) back among an experienced receiving group.

* Iowa returns many of the key performers from a team that lost by three to Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship game, including senior quarterback C.J. Beathard and senior All-American defensive back Desmond King. Iowa looks to win its 15th season opener in the last 16 years and extend its overall home winning streak to eight games.

LINE HISTORY:

Iowa opened this game as big 28.5 point chalk in their season opener and quickly moved down to -27.5, where it currently remains. The total also hasn't moved much since opening at 52. It has been bet down to 51.5 and then to its current number of 51.

TRENDS:

* Miami(OH) ended last season going 4-1 ATS in its last five games.
* Iowa went 0-5-1 ATS in its final six home games last season.
* Under went 4-0 in Miami's(OH) final four road games last season.
* Over is 3-0-1 in Iowa's last four non-conference games.

No. 6 LSU Tigers vs. Wisconsin Badgers (+10.5, 44.5)

Game to be played at Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin

* Leonard Fournette is 13 yards shy of 3,000 for his career and won't be limited, according to coach Les Miles, after tweaking his ankle in practice two weeks ago. Junior QB Brandon Harris returns under center for the Tigers after throwing all six of his interceptions in the final five games last season.

* The Badgers are taking aim at a 10-win season for the sixth time in eight years despite having just 13 seniors (among the fewest of any BCS schools). Fifth-year senior Bart Houston, who has 51 career pass attempts, is expected to start at quarterback.The Badgers have lost two straight season openers but hope to snap that skid behind senior running back Corey Clement, who has eight career games of 100 rushing yards, leading Wisconsin to an 8-0 record in those outings.

LINE HISTORY:

The Tigers opened as 10-point favorites at the so-called "neutral site" game against the Badgers. Since then the number has bounced around a bit, going down to 9.5 and then up to the current number of 10.5. Meanwhile, the total has remained at the opening number of 44.5.

TRENDS:

* LSU is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games on natural grass.
* Wisconsin is 1-4 ATS in its last five games versus SEC opponents.
* Over is 6-0 in LSU's last six non-conference games.
* Over is 3-0-1 in Wisconsin's last four games versus SEC opponents.

UMass Minutemen at No. 25 Florida Gators (-37, 50)

* Ross Comis, a redshirt sophomore, will be making his first collegiate start for the Minutemen. After two years with a pass-oriented attack behind quarterback Blake Frohnapfel, Florida is likely to get a different look from Comis, who is more of a dual threat as he passed for 1,688 yards and rushed for 1,942 as a high school senior in West Virginia.

* There's no doubt that all eyes in The Swamp on Saturday will be glued on new signal caller Luke Del Rio, a transfer from Oregon State who sat out last year and won the starting job over Austin Appleby, a graduate transfer from Purdue. Florida's defense should once again be one of the nation's best.

LINE HISTORY:

The Gators opened as 36.5-point home chalk and while early money came on the Minutemen, it has since come back on Florida. The line went as low as Florida -35, but has now surpassed the opening number and currently sits at Florida -37. The total opened at 48.5 and was quickly bet up to the current number of 50.

TRENDS:

* UMass ended last season going 2-6 ATS in its last eight games overall.
* Florida is 0-4 ATS in its last four non-conference games.
* The Under is 4-1 in UMass' last five non-conference games.
* The Under went 4-1 in Florida's final five home games last season.

No. 16 Georgia Bulldogs at No. 20 North Carolina Tar Heels (+3, 57)

Game to be played at Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia

* A return to health for running backs Nick Chubb and Sony Michel could push Georgia toward the top of the SEC East, but the Tar Heels pose a stiff opening challenge in Kirby Smart’s head coaching debut. Chubb is coming back from a ghastly knee injury, during last season where he had rushed for 747 yards, 8.1 per carry and Michel from a broken arm suffered last month are critical.

* The Tar Heels finished unbeaten in ACC play last season, winning 11 games in a row before falling to eventual national runner-up Clemson in the ACC championship game. Tailback Elijah Hood leads a host of returners but the big question rests at quarterback, where Mitch Trubisky takes over for the graduated Marquise Williams. Trubisky completed 40-of-47 passes in 2015 and has thrown 11 touchdowns while spelling Williams the past two seasons.

LINE HISTORY:

The Tar Heels opened as three-point pups in another so-called "neutral site" game, where Georgia will cleary have he crowd on their side. North Carolina quickly moved to +2.5 and spent most of the week there, before moving back to the opening number. The total opened at 56 and has since been bet up one point to sit at the current number of 57.

TRENDS:

* Georgia is 4-1 ATS in its last five games versus ACC opponents.
* North Carolina is 0-4 ATS in its last four neutral site games.
* The Under went 7-0 in Georgia's final seven games last season.
* The Over went 5-1 in North Carolina's final six games last season.

No. 17 USC Trojans vs. No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-12, 52.5)

Game to be played at AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas

* USC has won 17 consecutive season openers and head into the season with junior Max Browne as the team's new signal caller. The Trojans feature one of the nation's top receivers in junior JuJu Smith-Schuster -- who caught 89 passes for 1,454 yards and 10 touchdowns last season -- and that should help Browne gain his footing as a starter.

* The Crimson Tide have won 14 consecutive season openers and are looking to win their fifth national crown in the past eight seasons. The uncertainty at quarterback isn't a concern to Saban, who eliminated freshman Jalen Hurts from the derby earlier this week and said he has the big picture in mind. "We want to play the guy that's the most ready to give us the best chance," Saban said at Monday's press conference. "We also want to continue to develop guys that can compete at this position in the future. That's kind of where it is right now. There's really nothing else to talk about."

LINE HISTORY:

The defending champs opened this game as double digit favorites (-10), but that number did not last long with bettors jumping on Alabama. The number quickly moved to Alabama -10.5, then right to -11.5 and has since settled at -12.

As for the total, bettors are thinking Alabama's renowned defense will have the advantage in an early season matchup. The number opened at 54 and has been steadily bet down to the current number of 52.5.

TRENDS:

* USC went 1-5 ATS in their final 6 games at the end of last season.
* Alabama is 3-11-1 ATS in its last 15 non-conference games.
* Over is 8-3-1 in USC's last 12 neutral site games.
* Over is 16-4-1 in Alabama's last 21 neutral site games.

No. 2 Clemson Tigers at Auburn Tigers (+8, 63.5)

* Everyone knows Clemson is a title fave once again with Heisman candidate DeShaun Watsonat the helm, but the biggest question for Clemson rests on defense, where seven starters will make their debut. Watson dazzled as a sophomore, becoming the first FBS quarterback to pass for more than 4,000 yards and rush for 1,000-plus yards en route to finishing third in the Heisman voting.

* Auburn coach Gus Malzahn has named sophomore Sean White the starting quarterback but hinted both Jeremy Johnson and John Franklin III could play this season. White took over for Johnson early last season and completed 58 percent of his passes, but the Tigers feature a mostly inexperienced running back and receiving corps entering the opener.

LINE HISTORY:

Clemson opened as 7.5-point road faves for their opener against Auburn. Early on Clemson was bet down to a converted touchdown, but since then bettors have backed the defending ACC champs, with the line moving all the way to Clemson -8.5.

When it comes to the total, the Over has seen all the hot action. The line opened at 59 and bettors were all over that number, which quickly made its way up to 62. It didn't stop there, as the number continued to climb all the way to the current number of 63.5.

TRENDS:

* Clemson is 6-2 ATS in its last eight non-conference games.
* Auburn is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games.
* The Over went 4-0 in Clemson's final four road games last season.
* The Under is 7-1-1 in Auburn's last nine home games.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, September 3

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NCAAF Game of the Day: USC vs. Alabama
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No. 17 USC Trojans vs. No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-12, 52.5)

Game to be played at AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas

Defending national champion Alabama hasn't decided on a starting quarterback, but the lack of an incumbent at the pivotal position hasn't stopped the Crimson Tide from drawing the nation's No. 1 ranking as they enter Saturday's opener against No. 17 USC at Arlington, Texas. Alabama coach Nick Saban said that junior Cooper Bateman and redshirt freshman Blake Barnett are his squad's top two quarterbacks, while the Trojans previously settled on junior Max Browne to replace three-year starter Cody Kessler.

The Crimson Tide have won 14 consecutive season openers -- USC has an even longer streak at 17 -- and are looking to win their fifth national crown in the past eight seasons. The uncertainty at quarterback isn't a concern to Saban, who eliminated freshman Jalen Hurts from the derby earlier this week and said he has the big picture in mind. "We want to play the guy that's the most ready to give us the best chance," Saban said at Monday's press conference. "We also want to continue to develop guys that can compete at this position in the future. That's kind of where it is right now. There's really nothing else to talk about." Browne has thrown 19 career passes for USC, which is beginning its first full season under coach Clay Helton.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ABC. LINE: Alabama -11.5.

LINE HISTORY: The defending champs opened this game as double digit favorites (-10), but that number did not last long with bettors jumping on Alabama. The number quickly moved to Alabama -10.5, then right to -11.5 and has since settled at -12.

As for the total, bettors are thinking Alabama's renowned defense will have the advantage in an early season matchup. The number opened at 54 and has been steadily bet down to the current number of 52.5. Check out the complete line history here.

INJURY REPORT:

USC - S M. Tell III (probable Saturday, hamstring), CB J. Plattenburg (questionable Saturday, concussion), T C. Wheeler (out Saturday, foot), DE O. Masina (out Satuday, suspension), CB I. Langley (out Saturday, suspension).

Alabama - LB R. Evans (probable Saturday, undisclosed), DL R. Davis (questionable Saturday, eligibility), OL A. Taylor (out Saturday, suspension), DB T. Brown (out Satuday, suspension).

WEATHER REPORT: Indoors.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Alabama is one of the few teams that just reloads each year, instead of rebuilding. They return just 5 defensive starters for the third time in the past five seasons, but it will not matter as they still have plenty of NFL caliber players and have routinely allowed less than two touchdowns per game every recent season. Alabama will be tested by a veteran USC offense that returns all their key players from last year, except QB Kessler."

"Alabama returns 6 starters on offense, but they are unproven at QB and RB. They do benefit from facing an unproven USC defense that returns only 5 starters from a unit that has struggled the past two years, allowing 25.7 points and 401 yards per game last season, and 25.2 points and 408 yards per game the year before."

ABOUT USC (2015: 8-6): The Trojans feature one of the nation's top receivers in junior JuJu Smith-Schuster -- who caught 89 passes for 1,454 yards and 10 touchdowns last season -- and that should help Browne gain his footing as a starter. Sophomore Ronald Jones II set a school freshman rushing record with 987 yards -- surpassing school legend Charles White (1976) -- in his first college season and will share the workload with senior Justin Davis (902 yards in 2015) behind a solid offensive line led by senior right tackle Zach Banner. Junior cornerback Adoree' Jackson - who also returned two punts for scores and caught 27 passes on offense in 2015 - is the big name on the defense but sophomore inside linebacker Cameron Smith (78 tackles, three interceptions) and sophomore cornerback Iman Marshall (three interceptions) are emerging stars.

ABOUT ALABAMA (2015: 14-1): Bateman threw 52 passes and started one game last season when now-departed Jake Coker was helping the Crimson Tide win the national crown. Replacing Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry is another chore - sophomores Bo Scarbrough and Damien Harris will share carries against USC -- but the Crimson Tide remain well-stocked at receiver with sophomore Calvin Ridley (SEC-freshman record 89 receptions for 1,045 yards in 2015) and junior ArDarius Stewart (63 catches) leading the way. Alabama is reloading on defense but returns a quartet of senior standouts in strong safety Eddie Jackson (six interceptions for 230 yards and two touchdowns), defensive end Jonathan Allen (12 sacks), and linebackers Reuben Foster (73 tackles) and Tim Williams (10.5 sacks).

TRENDS:

* USC went 1-5 ATS in their final 6 games at the end of last season.
* Alabama is 3-11-1 ATS in its last 15 non-conference games.
* Over is 8-3-1 in USC's last 12 neutral site games.
* Over is 16-4-1 in Alabama's last 21 neutral site games.

CONSENSUS: Bettors are taking the points with Alabama, with 65 percent of wagers backing the defending champs. As for the total, bettors are almost split down the middle, with 51 percent of wagers on the Under.


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[Udog]

Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: College football knowledge…….

13) Of all the college football teams in the country, the teams with the most returning starts on the offensive line:

140- Bowling Green
131- Western Kentucky, North Carolina, USC
123- Eastern Michigan
109- Arkansas State

12) New Mexico, BYU have 16 senior starters, most in the country. Ohio State has only two senior starters, Texas 3.

11) According to Phil Steele’s great magazine, the five toughest schedules in the country: USC-Ole Miss-Alabama-Cal-Auburn

10) Army lost seven games by a TD or less last season; no one else lost more than five.

9) TCU/Michigan State both won six games by a TD or less LY; Georgia, Florida and Northwestern all won five.

8) Best turnover ratios LY: San Diego State +22, Houston +21, Navy +19. No one else had a turnover ratio better than +14.

7) Worst turnover ratios LY: Hawai’i -23, Central Florida -20, Cincinnati -19.

6) Last three years, Houston is +54 in turnovers; they covered seven of last eight as a road favorite, beat ACC teams in last two bowls.

5) NC State was 0-6 vs bowl eligible teams LY, 7-0 vs everyone else. Wolfpack is 5-1 as road favorites under Doeren; they were 0-7 in the seven years prior to Doeren coming to Raleigh.

4) Average total in Texas Tech’s last five bowl games: 72.6. Since 2007, Tech is 14-5-1 as a road favorite.

3) Penn State is 7-17 vs spread in its last 24 Big 14 games; since 2013, they’re 0-5 as road favorites- under James Franklin, they’re 2-9 vs spread coming off a loss. Nittany Lions have 9 starters back on offense, but break in a new quarterback this year.

2) Kentucky is 1-9-2 as a home underdog under Mike Stoops. Wildcats have their top 4 rushers back, their top 10 receivers, but the QB bolted for Boston College. Kentucky is 1-8 SU in last 9 games that were decided by less than 7 points.

1) Boise State scored 40 ppg in winning four of last five bowl games; three of those wins were against Pac-12 teams- they’re 9-3 vs spread coming off a loss. Since 2008, Broncos are 29-13 as road favorites.

[Udog]

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 1

This report has been hung at this point for two days. If they do ever bother with the remainder of today's schedule, I'll add the info.

Sat – Sept. 3

Hawaii at Michigan, 12:00 PM ET
Hawaii: 2-8 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56
Michigan: 10-8 ATS in a home game where the total is between 52.5 and 56

Miami Ohio at Iowa, 3:30 PM ET
Miami OH: 38-40 ATS as a road underdog
Iowa: 15-5 ATS as a home favorite of 21.5 or more points

W Michigan at Northwestern, 12:00 PM ET
W Michigan: 18-8 ATS in all lined games
Northwestern: 2-12 ATS in home games against MAC opponents

Bowling Green at Ohio State, 12:00 PM ET
Bowling Green: 2-4 ATS as a road underdog of 21.5 to 28 points
Ohio State: 7-4 ATS in non-conference games

Kent State at Penn State, 3:30 PM ET
Kent St: 2-10 ATS against Big 10 conference opponents
Penn St: 14-10 ATS as a home favorite of 21.5 to 28 points

Missouri at W Virginia, 12:00 PM ET
Missouri: 2-6 ATS in the first month of the season
W Virginia: 5-3 ATS in non-conference games

New Mexico State at Utep, 8:00 PM ET
New Mexico St: 17-35 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63
Utep: 8-2 ATS in home lined games

SMU at North Texas, 7:00 PM ET
SMU: 1-4 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 70
N Texas: 6-1 ATS as a home underdog of 7.5 to 14 points

S Alabama at Mississippi State, 12:00 PM ET
S Alabama: 4-10 ATS as an underdog
Mississippi St: 5-3 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56

Texas State at Ohio, 3:30 PM ET
Texas St: 4-6 ATS as a road underdog
Ohio: 6-1 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63

Southern Miss at Kentucky, 7:30 PM ET
Southern Miss: 9-4 ATS in road lined games
Kentucky: 1-5 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63

Louisiana Tech at Arkansas, 4:00 PM ET
Louisiana Tech: 4-9 ATS as a road underdog of 21.5 to 28 points
Arkansas: 8-2 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56

Massachusetts at Florida, 7:30 PM ET
Massachusetts: 1-6 ATS in the first two weeks of the season
Florida: 7-3 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56

Clemson at Auburn, 9:00 PM ET
Clemson: 7-4 ATS in non-conference games
Auburn: 3-10 ATS in home lined games

UCLA at Texas AM, 3:30 PM ET
UCLA: 7-0 ATS against SEC opponents
Texas AM: 5-14 ATS in games played on a grass field

[Udog]

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 1

San Jose State at Tulsa, 7:00 PM ET
San Jose St: 2-11 ATS as an underdog
Tulsa: 29-22 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 63

Rutgers at Washington, 2:00 PM ET
Rutgers: 2-11 ATS as a road underdog of 21.5 to 28 points
Washington: 11-3 ATS as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points

LSU at Wisconsin, 3:30 PM ET
LSU: 14-8 ATS in games played on a grass field
Wisconsin: 3-10 ATS in the first half of the season

North Carolina at Georgia, 5:30 PM ET
N Carolina: 3-7 ATS in non-conference games
Georgia: 25-10 ATS against ACC opponents

Oklahoma at Houston, 12:00 PM ET
Oklahoma: 4-7 ATS as a neutral field favorite of 7.5 to 14 points
Houston: 6-0 ATS as an underdog

Fresno State at Nebraska, 8:00 PM ET
Fresno St: 1-7 ATS in non-conference games
Nebraska: 6-3 ATS in non-conference games

USC at Alabama, 8:00 PM ET
USC: 2-5 ATS as an underdog
Alabama: 13-9 ATS as a neutral field favorite

Boise State at UL Lafayette, 12:00 PM ET
Boise St: 6-4 ATS as a road favorite
UL Lafayette: 5-7 ATS in home lined games

BYU at Arizona, 10:30 PM ET
BYU: 4-3 ATS when the line is +3 to -3
Arizona: 2-4 ATS in games played on a grass field

Northern Illinois at Wyoming, 10:30 PM ET
N Illinois: 10-3 ATS in road lined games
Wyoming: 1-5 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points

[Udog]

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 1

Sun – Sept. 4

Notre Dame at Texas, 7:30 PM ET
Notre Dame: 10-3 ATS in the first half of the season
Texas: 6-9 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less




NCAAF

Sunday, September 4

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NCAAF Game of the Day: Notre Dame at Texas
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Notre Dame crushed Texas 38-3 last season, this year the Irish are slight 3.5-point favorites.

No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Texas Longhorns (+3.5, 59)

Notre Dame is heading into another season with National Championship aspirations and has a pair of quarterbacks leading what should be an explosive offense. Texas, which hosts the ninth-ranked Fighting Irish in the season opener on Sunday, is hoping to bounce back from a losing season and is motivated to improve.

Notre Dame’s two regular-season losses last year came by a total of four points, and the team still had a chance to go to the College Football Playoff until falling 38-36 to Stanford in the regular-season finale. The Fighting Irish began 2015 with Malik Zaire under center but watched him go down with a fractured ankle in Week 2, leading to a strong effort from DeShone Kizer the rest of the way and a battle throughout camp that has yet to resolve itself. The Longhorns opened up their own competition at quarterback in camp and declared a winner between senior Tyrone Swoopes and freshman Shane Buechele, though they don’t plan on letting the rest of the world know until Sunday. “It's just about being consistent and being progressive, and be able to know and execute,” Texas offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert told reporters of the quarterback battle. “It's like any offense - if you execute it at a high level, if you do your job at a high level, then the majority of the time you're the guy.”

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC.

LINE HISTORY: The Irish opened as 4.5-point road favorites for their season opener, but since then the line has moved slightly in the Longhorns favor. The current number is Notre Dame -3.5. As for the total, it has been bet down slightly since opening at 60 and is currently sitting at 59. Check out the complete line history here.

WEATHER REPORT: There is a 20 percent chance of rain and a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast during the game. There will also be a five-to-six mile per hour wind gusting towards the northwest corner of the stadium.

INJURY REPORT:

Notre Dame - DL J. Haynes (questionable Sunday, ankle), CB A. White (questionable Sunday, possible suspension), LB T. Coney (questionable Sunday, possible suspension), WR K. Stepherson (questionable Sunday, possible suspension), RB D. Williams (questionable Sunday, possible suspension), RB J. Brent (out Sunday, foot), CB D. Butler (out Saturday, suspension), TE A. Jones (out Sunday, Academics).

Texas - OL Z. Shackelford (probable Sunday, undisclosed), RB C. Warren III (probable Sunday, ankle), RB D. Foreman (questionable Sunday, hamstring), OL B. Major (out Sunday, finger), RB R. Benard (out Sunday, knee), WR L. Joe (out Saturday, hamstring), WR D. McNeal (out Sunday, suspension).

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Embarrassing 38-3 season-opening loss last year to the Irish figures to have the Longhorns fully focused in this re-match. The fact that freshmen made a total of 77 starts for Texas last season brings an influx of youthful experience in 2016. With head coach Charlie Strorg just 11-14 in his first two seasons with UT, expect a big effort from the Steers tonight."

ABOUT NOTRE DAME (2015: 10-3): Zaire’s lone full game last season was the opener at home against Texas, during which he completed 19-of-22 passes for 313 yards and three touchdowns in a 38-3 thrashing. Kizer ended up with 21 passing TDs and 10 rushing scores in a breakout campaign and both quarterbacks are expected to go in Week 1, though the team has yet to decide which will take the first snap. “Haven't figured that out yet,” Fighting Irish coach Brian Kelly told reporters. “I mean, they’re both doing the same things that we've been asking them to do, and that may be something that we discuss in the locker room. It's not really an issue for us right now. It's not something that we've contemplated.”

ABOUT TEXAS (2015: 5-7): The Longhorns look like an improved team after closing the 2015 campaign with a win at Baylor and bringing in another top recruiting class. “The attitude of the team right now *– offense, defense, special teams – is something we didn't have last year, in my opinion,” Texas defensive coordinator Vance Bedford told reporters. “Guys are focused, ready to go. They're ready to prove that last year was a fluke.” Swoopes got the start last season at Notre Dame and went 7-of-22 for 93 yards as the Longhorns were outgained 527-163.

TRENDS:

* Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS in its last five games in September.
* Texas is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games versus Independent opponents.
* Over is 8-2 in Notre Dame's last 10 road games.
* Under is 23-10 in Texas' last 33 games overall.

CONSENSUS: The public is laying the points with the favorite, with 58 percent of wagers on Notre Dame. When it comes to the total, bettors are on the under with 62 percent of wagers on it.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Sunday, September 4


Under went 31-23 in Saturday's NCAAF action. It's cashing at 61.7% very early on in the season.

[Udog]

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 1


Mon – Sept. 5

OLE Miss at Florida State, 8:00 PM ET
Old Miss: 6-1 ATS in the first month of the season
Florida St: 1-4 ATS on a neutral field where the total is between 56.5 and 63




NCAAF

Monday, September 5

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NCAAF Game of the Day: Ole Miss vs. Florida State
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Dalvin Cook rushed for a school-record 1,691 yards and 19 touchdowns last year for the Seminoles.
No. 12 Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 4 Florida State Seminoles (-4.5, 60)

A pair of Heisman Trophy candidates and two ranked teams will be on display when Ole Miss takes on Florida State in their season opener at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Fla., on Monday. Fourth-ranked Florida State returns a talented group on both sides of the ball led by junior running back Dalvin Cook, and senior quarterback Chad Kelly is the key to unlock a successful season for No. 12 Ole Miss.

Cook rushed for a school-record 1,691 yards and 19 touchdowns last year for the Seminoles, who introduce a new starting quarterback in freshman and Orlando native Deondre Francois. Both will have the support of an experienced offensive line and all-ACC tackle Roderick Johnson told the Tampa Bay Times of Cook: “His attitude’s the same as last year and that’s to be the greatest of all time.” Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher calls Kelly “a competitor” and the 6-2, 224-pounder comes to Orlando after a breakout season in which he threw for 4,042 yards and 31 touchdowns while rushing for another 500 and 10 scores. Kelly has the weapons around him to match those numbers and will be tested by one of top defenses the Rebels will face all season.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Florida State opened this matchup of ranked teams as 6.5-point chalk, but early on the betting action was on Ole Miss. The line moved to FSU -6 and got as low as -4, before money started coming back on the Seminoles, bringing the line back to the current number of FSU -4.5.

The total has also seen a fair amount of action. The number opened at 57 and since then bettors have been hammering the Over, bringing the number all the way up to 60. Check out the complete line history here.

WEATHER REPORT: It will be partly cloudy with a very slight 10 percent chance of rain during the game. There will also be a seven to nine mile per hour wind blowing towards the southwest corner of the stadium.

INJURY REPORT:

Ole Miss - DE F. Brown (probable Monday, foot), WR M. Pack (questionable Monday, thumb), OL J. Liggins (out Monday).

Florida State - QB S. Maguire (probable Monday, foot), DB D. James (probable Monday, foot), WR J. Wilson (probable Monday, foot), DB L. Taylor (probable Monday, thigh), OL A. Eberle (probable Monday, concussion), WR N. Muray (probable Monday, concussion), WR T. Rudolph (probable Monday, hamstring), WR G. Campbell (questionable Monday, groin), DB N. Andrews (questionable Monday, hamstring), DT A. Torres (doubtful Monday, foot), OL K. Are (doutbful Monday, concussion), DT D. Taylor II (doubtful Monday, shoulder).

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We had Florida State at -4.5 Friday afternoon and with the public backing the favorite, we have since moved to Florida St. -6 with 78 percent of the action to cover (as of Sunday afternoon). The Total has also moved on this game, going from 58.5 to 59, with just under 60 percent of the action on the Over.

ABOUT OLE MISS (2015: 10-3): One concern for the Rebels this season is on their offensive line, which is expected to include three sophomore starters. Senior Akeem Judd and freshman Eric Swinney lead the rushing attack with Jordan Wilkins (academics) lost for the season and Kelly has a deep receiving corps with wideouts Quincy Adeboyejo and Damore’ea Stringfellow along with tight end Evan Engram owning the most experience. Defensive end Marquis Haynes (10 sacks last year) and safety Tony Conner key the other side of the ball where Ole Miss returns five starters.

ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (2015: 10-3): Francois becomes the fourth freshman to start an opener at quarterback for the Seminoles in their history, after incumbent Sean Maguire (foot) was lost for 4-to-6 weeks, and will make it in his home town. Francois has an offensive line group with a combined 66 starts, one of the nation’s top running backs and an experienced receiving corps that is led by Travis Rudolph (59 catches, 916 yards, seven touchdowns) to help. Defensive end DeMarcus Walker (10½ sacks in 2015) and safety Derwin James (91 tackles, 4½ sacks) are stalwarts for what could be one of the country’s top defenses.

TRENDS:

* Ole Miss is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games in September.
* Florida State ended last season going 5-1 ATS in its final six games.
* Under is 22-6 in Ole Miss' last 28 games overall.
* Under is 15-5 in Florida State's last 22 versus SEC opponents.

CONSENSUS: Bettors are strongly backing the favorite in this matchup, with 68 percent of wagers on Florida State. The action on the total is much more even, with 51 percent of bettors giving the slight edge to the Over.


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[Udog]

NCAAF Opening Line Report: After impressive start Michigan faces more big chalk in Week 2

After easily handling Hawaii as 38-point chalk with a large public backing, the Wolverines open as 34.5-point faves in Week 2 vs. UCF.

Week 2 of the college football season doesn’t look anything like Week 1. There are no huge matchups of highly rated teams or traditional powers. Many Top 25 games have giant pointspreads. We talk about a few of the opening lines with John Lester, senior lines manager for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

No. 10 Tennessee Volunteers (-10) at Virginia Tech Hokies

The Vols were being talked about as potential dark-horse threats to make the College Football Playoff and perhaps make a national title run this year. They sure didn’t look the part in Week 1, needing overtime to nab a 20-13 victory Thursday as a 21.5-point home favorite against Appalachian State of the Sun Belt Conference.

Virginia Tech had an easier time with FCS outfit Liberty, but also failed to cash in a 36-13 home victory Saturday giving 31.5 points.

“I don’t think anyone was impressed with either of these teams in their openers,” Lester said. “This is going to be a bad spot for Tennessee, and I’m sure we’ll see some sharp spread and moneyline plays on the Hokies.”

Arkansas Razorbacks at No. 14 Texas Christian Horned Frogs (-7)

TCU was underwhelming Saturday in its opener against FCS challenger South Dakota State, trailing 17-7 in the second quarter and ending up in a shootout well into the fourth quarter. The Frogs ultimately prevailed 59-41 as massive 34.5-point home faves.

Arkansas also struggled in Week 1, barely fending off Louisiana Tech 21-20 laying 21 points at home.

“Again, two underwhelming showings from these two in their openers,” Lester said. “But there’s always something to be said for knocking off the rust. If the Razorbacks can control the trenches like they’re supposed to, they could come away with a big victory here.”

Central Florida Knights at No. 8 Michigan Wolverines (-34.5)

The Wolverines, who drew a fair amount of futures action to win this year’s national title, got the 2016 campaign off to a strong start with a 63-3 wipeout of visiting Hawaii on Saturday, easily cashing as a 38-point chalk.

They aren’t favored by quite as much this week, but it’s still another lopsided home affair, this time against Central Florida. The Knights opened the season with a 38-0 victory over FCS squad South Carolina State laying 26 points at home.

“After the utter domination by Michigan in the opener, this is a number we had to be generous with,” Lester said. “Central Florida is certainly a step up from Hawaii, but the square support for Michigan was insane through one week. They’ll bet them here at any number.”

Nevada Wolf Pack at No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (no line)

Bookmaker.eu had to hold off on the opening line for this game, since Notre Dame was playing at Texas late into Sunday night. In that contest, the Fighting Irish rallied from a 31-14 third-quarter deficit but ultimately lost 50-47 in a double-overtime thriller as a 3.5-point road favorite.

Nevada got all it could handle from FCS foe Cal Poly-SLO on Friday night, needing overtime to notch a 30-27 victory while falling miles short as 27.5-point home chalk. So look for a steamed Notre Dame squad to be a hefty chalk in its home opener.

“Again, this will be an inflated number due to the matchup of a marquee program versus a poor team,” Cooley said. “And the public will overreact to Nevada’s struggle against an FCS team in Week 1. We’ll have to see how Notre Dame looks Monday to assess how this number will go.”