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Friday's NFL Week 1 preseason betting primer and odds

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  • Friday's NFL Week 1 preseason betting primer and odds

    Friday's NFL Week 1 preseason betting primer and odds

    Robert Griffin III makes his Browns debut Friday in their preseason opener vs. the Packers, but will do so without two of his top receiving targets.

    Week 1 of the NFL preseason continues Friday, with five more games on the schedule for you to sink your teeth in. We break down the best betting tidbits from each game to help you 'cap the preseason like a pro.

    Miami Dolphins at New York Giants (-2.5, 36.5)

    * According to reports, the Dolphins haven't worked on their run game much during training camp, so look for the 'Phins that to change in their preseason opener versus the Giants. Newly signed Arian Foster won't suit up, (essentially just to keep the injury prone back fresh), so expect second-year runner Jay Ajayi to get a healthy amount of touches Friday.

    * Expect fourth year quarterback Ryan Nassib to get most of the snaps when the Giants host the Dolphins Friday night. That has been the norm since being drafted by the G-Men. In three preseasons, Nassib completed 105 of 196 passes (53.6 percent) for 1,313 yards, seven touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 86.5.


    Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 34.5)

    * If quarterback Matthew Stafford and wide receiver Marvin Jones both suit up for Friday's game, look for the new battery mates to work on their chemistry early in this contest. Reports out of camp are that Jones has emerged as Stafford's "go-to guy" since coming over as a free agent from Cincinnati this offseason, especially in joint practices with the Steelers this week. That's exactly what the Lions need with Calvin Johnson retiring.

    * Steelers coach Mike Tomlin told reporters Wednesday, that most of his key starters will not play in Friday's preseason opener. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, wide receiver Antonio Brown, running backs Le'Veon Bell and center Maurkice Pouncey are all expected to sit out the game. Expect backup Landry Jones to play into the second half.


    Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5, 35)

    * The Vikings will have a fairly healthy and in attendance lineup for this road game to open their preseason schedule. Most of their offensive starters will get some first quarter time. They will, however, be missing starting corner Terence Newman, linebacker Eric Kendricks and defensive tackle Sharif Floyd. As with most teams in preseason Week 1, Teddy Bridgewater and the starting offense will play a series or two before putting their helmets away.

    * Not many in the media are giving the Bengals much respect for this upcoming season, despite the fact that they've won 52 games over the past five years and made the playoffs in each of those five. Perhaps it has something to do with the way they exited the postseason back in January - respect is something that may have to be earned back. Andy Dalton and A.J. Green will play a series or two and A.J. McCarron will take over for the rest of the opening half.


    Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers (-3.5, 34.5)

    * Two Browns wide receivers will miss Friday's game versus the Packers due to hamstring injuries, including their first round pick. Both Corey Coleman and Andrew Hawkins will be sidelined after failing to get on the practice field this week. Look for newly named starter Robert Griffin III to build some chemistry with former quarterback, now receiver Terrelle Pryor, but head coach Hue Jackson has not said how long his starters will stay in the game.

    * As was the case heading into the Hall of Fame Game, star quarterback Aaron Rodgers is not expected to suit up for the Packers preseason opener against the Browns. The problem is, it's looking like backup Brett Hundley may also be sidelined for the game with an ankle injury.


    Oakland Raiders at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5, 37.5)

    * Latavious Murray is expected to be the Raiders bell cow running back this season, so that probably means you won't see too much of him Friday. However, the job as his top backup is up for grabs. Look for fifth round draft pick DeAndré Washington to get plenty of carries with fellow rookie Jalen Richard's status unknown after missing practice Wednesday.

    * Cardinals offensive coordinator Harold Goodwin will be calling plays in three of four preseason games, including Friday night's preseason opener against the Raiders. Head coach Bruce Arians calls the plays during the regular season and should the same in the third preseason game when starters play the most minutes. The main piece of advice Arians has given Goodwin when it comes to play-calling has been "take more shots."

  • #2
    Best and worst NFL preseason bets of the past 21 years

    Over the course of two decades the Seahawks are the best NFL preseason bet, including going 15-5 ATS since 2011.

    You’ve heard all the warnings when it comes to betting on NFL preseason football. But like smoking, drinking and eating fast food, you still do it anyway.

    If you’re going to wager on these whacky-ass exhibition games, in which no one but the head coaches have any clue as to what the hell will happen, at least you should know which NFL teams have consistently cashed in during the preseason and which ones wane in the warm-ups.

    Here are the two best and two worst NFL teams to bet during the preseason since 1995:

    BEST PRESEASON BETS

    Seattle Seahawks (49-31 SU, 47-30-3 ATS)


    It doesn’t matter if it’s the preseason or the Super Bowl, the Seahawks are kicking ass and taking names. Seattle has been perfect in two of the past four – going 12-4 SU and ATS – and is 15-5 ATS going back to the 2011 tune-up tilts.

    Expectations remain high for a team looking to make its third Super Bowl appearance in the past four seasons – which could mean so are the preseason spreads - but that didn’t stop the Seahawks from cashing in during the regular season. Winners win – something Seattle backers have done at a 62 percent clip in the preseason since 1995.

    New York Jets (50-30 SU, 46-33-1 ATS)

    Looking for value come the preseason? Gang Green is your one-stop shop for postseason profits. However, New York has been inconsistent the past four summers going 3-1, 1-3, 3-1, and 0-4 ATS in the past four preseasons, but opened this preseason covering the 3-point chalk versus Jacksonville.

    This year, the Jets finally have Ryan Fitzpatrick signed and planted at the top of the QB depth chart, but Geno Smith has reportedly shown progress in camp, while youngsters Bryce Petty and Christian Hackenberg are expected to duke it out for the No. 3 spot. Their remaining schedule features Washington, the Giants and Philadelphia all division rivals. Look for Smith to try to put on a show, in at least an audition for next year, and the battle of the kids to light a fire under the J-E-T-S in the preseason.


    WORST PRESEASON BETS

    Kansas City Chiefs (29-51 SU, 25-52-3 ATS)


    Andy Reid cares about the preseason about as much as he does for counting carbs and hot yoga. But while the public consensus is “fade Reid in the preseason”, his recent teams haven’t been that bad.

    Kansas City is 7-5 SU and 6-6 ATS in its first three preseasons with Reid at the helm, including going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS last preseason. Overall, however, the Chiefs have been a terrible play in August – covering just 30 percent of the time.

    Oakland Raiders (36-43 SU, 31-46-2 ATS)

    Misery loves company, and preseason bettors have suffered in the AFC West. Oakland joins Kansas City as the worst of the worst in exhibition play. The Silver and Black can’t seem to cover – no matter the time of year. Oakland is a dismal 5-11 SU and ATS the last four preseasons.

    However, there may actually be hope for the black hole, maybe even more than the preseason is concerned. The Raiders have a rising stars at QB and WR in Derek Carr and Amari Cooper, and a retooled defense led by All-Pro Khalil Mack - given they survive the preseason.

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    • #3
      Bettors fading the Steelers as Week 1 of the NFL preseason continues Friday

      The Steelers are expected to rest all their key veterans Friday night, the result has been money coming in on the Lions.

      The first full weekend of NFL preseason play continues tonight, and bettors are certainly engaged, even though these games don’t count for the teams involved.

      We talk about the five-game slate with Chris Andrews, sportsbook director at the South Point in Las Vegas, and with an oddsmaker for online site BetNow.

      Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers – Open: Steelers -4; Move: Steelers -3

      Detroit plays its first game without superstar wide receiver Calvin Johnson, who surprisingly retired following the 2015 season. Pittsburgh, a playoff team last year, had no such shock to its system and is among the favorites to win the Super Bowl. But none of that really matters in a preseason game.

      “Probably the biggest mover has been money showing for Detroit, which I really think is money showing against the Steelers,” Andrews told Covers. “You’ve got to assume the Steelers aren’t really going to play anybody. They’re in a good position with a good veteran team, so why risk getting anybody hurt?”

      That would certainly explain the full point of line movement, from Steelers -4 to -3 at SouthPoint.

      “Any (Pittsburgh) starters who play will be on a short leash,” Andrews said. “But the Lions are going to take this game a little more seriously.”

      The Steelers opened -3.5 at BetNow and have been bet down to -3, which helped draw more Pittsburgh supporters.

      “Most of the money is on the -3, and customers are betting more on the Steelers and the total going under,” BetNow’s oddsmaker said, noting the total dropped a half-point from 35.5 to 35.


      Cleveland Browns vs. Green Bay Packers – Open: Packers -3.5; Move: Packers -2

      This contest has seen significant line movement at SouthPoint, for pretty much the same reason Andrews outlined in the Lions-Steelers contest.

      “I don’t think Aaron Rodgers will play at all,” he said. “We’ve had some money on the Browns, a team trying to get into contention. We’ve gotten really no Green Bay money at all.”

      In fact, after moving the Pack to -2.5 this morning, Andrews had to follow up a short time later with the move to -2. Similarly, at BetNow the line went from 4 to 2.5, with much of the action on parlays.


      Oakland Raiders at Arizona Cardinals – Open: Cardinals -3; Move: None

      The lone late game tonight, with a 10 p.m. Eastern kickoff, features an Arizona team coming off a solid season against an Oakland team that many feel is on the rise and could be a playoff contender this year. Some Raiders money came in early, but has since been balanced out.

      “We went to -2.5 very briefly, but now we’re back at 3,” Andrews said. “I think we’ll see some more play on that closer to game time.”

      The line has been stuck on 3 at BetNow, with the home team drawing the most interest.

      “Customers are all over the Cardinals and the under,” BetNow’s oddsmaker said, adding the total is 38.

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