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Thursday's NFL Week 1 preseason betting primer

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  • Thursday's NFL Week 1 preseason betting primer

    Thursday's NFL Week 1 preseason betting primer

    As usual with the Patriots, they aren't sharing much in the way of how much time the starters will see on the field or who will be the actual starting quarterback Thursday.

    The opening week of the NFL preseason kicks off with six games on the board Thursday. Here's a look at some betting notes for the six matchups:

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 37)

    * Expectations are high for a slimmed down Jameis Winston and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2016. Vincent Jackson is expected to miss Thursday's game which will mean plenty of No. 1 reps for wide receiver Mike Evans. The Bucs are going to give opposing defenses problems with their skill at the tight end position - Cameron Brate, Austin Saferian-Jenkins, Dan Vitale and Luke Stocker will rotate in and out for most of the game.

    * The Doug Pederson era gets underway in Philadelphia without 8-time Pro Bowler Jason Peters at left tackle to protect the blind side of second overall draft pick Carson Wentz and Sam Bradford. Matt "Turnstile" Tobin will attempt to fill in by moving from guard to starting left tackle for Thursday's game. Right tackle Lane Johnson will be on the field at his usual position despite the looming threat of a potential 10-game PED suspension. The Eagles will also be without wide receiver Jordan Matthews who is dealing with a bruised knee. QB rotation - Bradford and Chase Daniel to split first half, Wentz "will play the majority of the second half."


    Washington Redskins at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 37)

    * The Redskins have won six of their eight preseason games over the last two seasons under Jay Gruden. Gruden will go with starting quarterback Kirk Cousins for a series or two, Colt McCoy for the remainder of the opening half, and rookie Nate Sudfeld for most, if not all, of the second half. The Skins will be without starting tight end Jordan Reed (thumb) so Vernon Davis, Niles Paul, Logan Paulsen, and Marcel Jensen will all move up a slot on the depth chart.

    * The Falcons open their preseason schedule at home and it is expected that head coach Dan Quinn will attempt to vastly improve his club's play on the defensive side of the ball in his second season at the helm. The key additions to their defense are first round draft pick, and now starting safety, Keanu Neal out of Florida and WILL Sean Weatherspoon - who is returning home after one season in Arizona with the Cardinals.


    New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots (-3, 39.5)

    * Saints quarterback Drew Brees has been told he will be playing "a series or so" at the beginning of Thursday's game at New England. Typically, if they go three-and-out he will come back out for the second possession. Either way, backups Luke McCown and Garrett Grayson will see plenty of work. Saints' running back Mark Ingram (who has missed a couple of practices recently so it's unknown how much he will play - if at all) expects the offense to establish the run with a stiff running back competition for the No. 2 and No. 3 spots (Tim Hightower, Marcus Murphy, C.J. Spiller, and Travaris Cadet).

    * As usual with the Patriots, they aren't sharing much in the way of how much time the starters will see on the field or who will be the actual starting quarterback in this game. Coach Belichick did offer that their main, "priority now is to get Jimmy ready for the start of the season." It is expected that Brady will sit this one out and Garropolo will get the starter's reps in the first quarter. The Pats got a scare Tuesday when star wide receiver Julian Edelman threw his helmet and left practice with, what appeared to be, a knee injury. Edelman, however, was back at practice Wednesday in a limited role and is Questionable to play Thursday night.


    Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens (-1.5, 36.5)

    * The post-Josh Norman era begins in Carolina with three rookie cornerbacks listed as the top three on the Panthers' depth chart. James Bradberry, Daryl Worley, and Zack Sanchez are all expected to be leaned on heavily in 2016, and play significant minutes in order to get their feet wet Thursday night. Cam Newton didn't have his big weapon, wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin, for the entire 2015 season. The pair are expected to be a dynamic duo in 2016 but will only be on the field for a series or two in Baltimore.

    * Ravens head coach John Harbaugh is basically calling this one a game to test out the rookies and depth players. Terrell Suggs, Elvis Dumervil, Steve Smith Sr., Crockett Gillmore, Dennis Pitta, Breshad Perriman, starting left tackle Ronnie Stanley and Joe Flacco are all expect to sit this contest out entirely. Ryan Mallett, Josh Johnson and Jerrod Johnson will all share quarterback time, although no word yet on order or length of play. The fact that AT&T Stadium is going to air Michael Phelps' 200-meter individual medley from Rio 2016 on the video boards during the game says all you need to know about this one.


    Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets (-2.5, 36.5)

    * The Jaguars are expected to be competitive in the AFC South this season. They have publically stated that one of their preseason goals is to "start fast". That'll mean the pressure will be on starting quarterback Blake Bortles in his limited playing time Thurday night to put up some points. Chad Henne will likely finish off the opening half, once Bortles is done, and be followed by rookies Brandon Allen and Max Wittek.

    * Newly acquired running back Matt Forte will sit this one out with a sore hamstring and the Ryan Fitzpatrick-led first team offense will see limited reps in the opening quarter before putting their helmets aside for the evening. The Jets have four quarterbacks clogging their roster at the moment, so games like this will be critical for Geno Smith, Christian Hackenberg and Bryce Petty to make some big impressions on head coach Todd Bowles and his staff.


    Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears (-1, 35)

    * The uncertain Broncos quarterback situation is certainly no secret. The plan, announced by head coach Gary Kubiak, is for the co-No. 1 quarterbacks to split the first half - Mark Sanchez will play the first quarter and Trevor Siemian will play the second quarter. Rookie Paxton Lynch will see plenty of playing time in the second half and everyone in Denver will be watching his performance very closely. If Lynch has any hope of starting Week 1, he will have to light up the Bears' third string defense.

    * Bears fans, and backers, are excited to see the debuts of the team's last two first round draft picks. Wide receiver Kevin White will debut after missing the 2015 season with a stress fracture in his shin and pass rusher Leonard Floyd will be looking to get to Mark Sanchez early and often in order to make a good first impression. The other big storylines for John Fox's team will be another re-tooled offensive line and a vastly improving defense that has Bears fans salivating and fantasizing about classic "Bears football".

  • #2
    Panthers-Ravens line has jumped fence as NFL preseason gets underway Thursday night

    The Ravens have moved from slight home faves to slight home dogs in their preseason opener against the Panthers.

    Provided there are no crazy happenings with football fields turning into tar pits – a la Sunday’s Hall of Fame Game, which had to be canceled – we’re finally going to kick off NFL preseason play tonight.

    There’s a six-game slate, and we talk about where the action is with Aaron Kessler, supervisor of the Golden Nugget sportsbook in downtown Las Vegas; Phil Hayden, sportsbook supervisor at Treasure Island on the Strip; and an oddsmaker for online site BetNow.

    Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens – Open: Ravens -1; Move: Panthers -1

    The defending NFC champion Panthers take the field for the first time since their stinging Super Bowl loss to the Broncos. Kessler said preseason action, particularly in Week 1, is pretty light, but this game is besting that trend.

    “That one’s actually gotten a decent amount on it,” Kessler said. “We opened it at Ravens -1, now it’s Panthers -1, so it’s flipped.”

    A similar scenario, though with larger line movement, occurred at Treasure Island, where news this morning that Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco might not play at all seemed to spark Carolina backers.

    “We opened at Ravens -1.5, then took some bets and went to Ravens -2 early,” Hayden said. “This morning, it was more Carolina, and now it’s flipped over to Panthers -1.”


    Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears – Open: Bears -1.5; Move: Bears -1

    Super Bowl champion Denver begins trying to sort out its quarterback situation tonight in the Windy City. Betnow’s oddsmaker said this game has bounced around a good bit throughout the week, and perhaps there’s more to come before kickoff.

    “The action is landing on the Broncos and the total (34.5) to stay under,” the oddsmaker said. “The line moved from 1.5 down to pick ‘em, and then landed on 1. Most of the money is on pick ‘em.”

    At the Golden Nugget, the line has stuck on Bears -1, though the action has been prevalent to one side.

    “What we’ve gotten the most action on is the Bears and the Panthers,” Kessler said.


    Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets – Open: Jets -1.5; Move: Jets -2.5

    New York nearly made the playoffs last season, going 10-6 SU, while Jacksonville is coming off a dismal 5-11 SU campaign. And although Jets starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick won’t see much time – like most starters in Week 1 of the preseason – bettors are still intrigued by New York.

    “When the line moved, it went straight from -1.5 to -2.5,” BetNow’s oddsmaker said. “The customers are betting more on the Jets and on the total (36.5) going under. And most of the action is on parlays.”

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