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Ca$hClub Inc had a decent year in football. Not good enough to charge tons of money 
, but good enough to make some. Right now we stand at 61-54, Plus 9.91 Units in NFL wagers. Combined with our college football, we are at 12.10 Units won for the year. Here is my $uper Bowl release......
Carolina +7.5 (-120) -- 2X -- There is value to be had here. If this game were AT NEW ENGLAND, the line would be 7. So a neutral site means we STILL get 7? Give me a break. The problem with value in the Super Bowl is that value only gets realized if the dog wins outright, because it is rare that the favorite wins but loses ATS. How rare? Well, it's only happened 3 times in 37 Super Bowls! Pitt beat Dallas but didn't win ATS in SB X, Same with SF against Cincy in SB XXIII, and Dallas did the same against Pitt in SB ***. There have been 2 other occasions, however, where the favorite has won but didn't win OR lose ATS. Those being GB against NE in January of '98 (won 35-21, laying 14), and of course the Rams beating the Titans in Jan 2000 (23-16, laying 7). You'll notice that key numbers do hit in the Super Bowl, thus the value of buying the half.
This points out a couple of things. While the competition is getting keener in the NFL with the advent of parity, the spreads are still pretty big. You're telling me that if Green Bay played the Pats in the regular season ANYWHERE, the line would have been more than 11? Yeah, right. But the Super Bowl still has this grip over America, making fans think that the better team will CRUSH the lesser team because it's a championship game. And in some respects, they are right! Coaches coach differently in playoff and championship games. They go for the throat, and don't dare let up and give the other team an opportunity to come back. Makes one wonder why they don't try harder to put teams away in other games.
Now the task before us is to ask the question, Is New England better than Carolina? Well, of course they are. They have proven to be the better team because we trust them more, given that they have done this longer. They have the better QB and talent that people just don't give much credit to. So if you think they're better and therefore will probably win the game, how can you bet on the panthers? Well.....
I truly feel this will be a field goal game. The Pats don't have an offense that I think will push Carolina all over the place. Nor do I think Brady will have time to throw where he wants. Those of you following the CA$HCLUB know I've been riding the Panthers throughout the playoffs. I said they would get a bullshit play somewhere along the line in all 3 games. I was wrong, because they really only got it in the Rams game (OL recovering a fumble in the EZ) that really mattered, unless you count that broken play Steve Smith made on their first drive against Dallas. They have been able to run, and while I hold Belichick in high esteem, I feel that's one thing that will be difficult for NE to stop with schemes. It's hard trusting Delhomme with my money against a team that might just stack the line and dare him to beat NE. But I will because of the better receivers that Carolina has. Steve Smith makes big play after big play. Muhsin Muhammad is steady and WILL get open. The refs will call a different game after what I think happened last week. I believe Tagliabue read the officials the riot act given the circumstances of NE's win over Indy. The DBs will not be allowed to grab and clutch all they want in this game.
Both teams have GREAT kickers. I am not picking Carolina to win because Fox plays for the FG, the same way Jim Mora did with Morten Andersen and Mike Vanderjagt. Anybody watch this dolt against Dallas kick the FG while trailing by 7? Belichick used to be the same way because he felt he had to be in Cleveland. NO MORE! He is more like Jimmy Johnson and Bill Parcells and Denny Green and Dick Vermiel in that he plays for TOUCHDOWNS. That's a big plus. I do feel that Fox will keep it close with his Field Goal Bullshit, and New England wins, 20-16. Since my pick is only 3 points off the spread, it's a small wager. But it's a good one.
The value is there to be had, unless the panthers treat this game differently than a regular game. It says here that the predictability of John Fox and the running game and the kicker works in my favor!
Good luck guys.
, but good enough to make some. Right now we stand at 61-54, Plus 9.91 Units in NFL wagers. Combined with our college football, we are at 12.10 Units won for the year. Here is my $uper Bowl release......Carolina +7.5 (-120) -- 2X -- There is value to be had here. If this game were AT NEW ENGLAND, the line would be 7. So a neutral site means we STILL get 7? Give me a break. The problem with value in the Super Bowl is that value only gets realized if the dog wins outright, because it is rare that the favorite wins but loses ATS. How rare? Well, it's only happened 3 times in 37 Super Bowls! Pitt beat Dallas but didn't win ATS in SB X, Same with SF against Cincy in SB XXIII, and Dallas did the same against Pitt in SB ***. There have been 2 other occasions, however, where the favorite has won but didn't win OR lose ATS. Those being GB against NE in January of '98 (won 35-21, laying 14), and of course the Rams beating the Titans in Jan 2000 (23-16, laying 7). You'll notice that key numbers do hit in the Super Bowl, thus the value of buying the half.
This points out a couple of things. While the competition is getting keener in the NFL with the advent of parity, the spreads are still pretty big. You're telling me that if Green Bay played the Pats in the regular season ANYWHERE, the line would have been more than 11? Yeah, right. But the Super Bowl still has this grip over America, making fans think that the better team will CRUSH the lesser team because it's a championship game. And in some respects, they are right! Coaches coach differently in playoff and championship games. They go for the throat, and don't dare let up and give the other team an opportunity to come back. Makes one wonder why they don't try harder to put teams away in other games.
Now the task before us is to ask the question, Is New England better than Carolina? Well, of course they are. They have proven to be the better team because we trust them more, given that they have done this longer. They have the better QB and talent that people just don't give much credit to. So if you think they're better and therefore will probably win the game, how can you bet on the panthers? Well.....
I truly feel this will be a field goal game. The Pats don't have an offense that I think will push Carolina all over the place. Nor do I think Brady will have time to throw where he wants. Those of you following the CA$HCLUB know I've been riding the Panthers throughout the playoffs. I said they would get a bullshit play somewhere along the line in all 3 games. I was wrong, because they really only got it in the Rams game (OL recovering a fumble in the EZ) that really mattered, unless you count that broken play Steve Smith made on their first drive against Dallas. They have been able to run, and while I hold Belichick in high esteem, I feel that's one thing that will be difficult for NE to stop with schemes. It's hard trusting Delhomme with my money against a team that might just stack the line and dare him to beat NE. But I will because of the better receivers that Carolina has. Steve Smith makes big play after big play. Muhsin Muhammad is steady and WILL get open. The refs will call a different game after what I think happened last week. I believe Tagliabue read the officials the riot act given the circumstances of NE's win over Indy. The DBs will not be allowed to grab and clutch all they want in this game.
Both teams have GREAT kickers. I am not picking Carolina to win because Fox plays for the FG, the same way Jim Mora did with Morten Andersen and Mike Vanderjagt. Anybody watch this dolt against Dallas kick the FG while trailing by 7? Belichick used to be the same way because he felt he had to be in Cleveland. NO MORE! He is more like Jimmy Johnson and Bill Parcells and Denny Green and Dick Vermiel in that he plays for TOUCHDOWNS. That's a big plus. I do feel that Fox will keep it close with his Field Goal Bullshit, and New England wins, 20-16. Since my pick is only 3 points off the spread, it's a small wager. But it's a good one.
The value is there to be had, unless the panthers treat this game differently than a regular game. It says here that the predictability of John Fox and the running game and the kicker works in my favor!
Good luck guys.
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