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Big 12 conference college football betting preview: Sooners are clear favorites
The league is losing some excellent quarterbacks this season, but the Sooners have a great one back in Heisman candidate Baker Mayfield.
AAA Sports breaks down the Big 12 giving his advice on season win totals and odds on winning one of the most competitive conferences in college football and it appears to be the Oklahoma Sooners' conference to lose in 2016.
Oklahoma Sooners (2015: 11-2 SU, 9-4 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: -140
Season win total: 10.0
Why to bet the Sooners: The stars and planets are all aligned properly for Oklahoma, and barring a rash of injuries or a variety of strange things happening in the conference, the Sooners should make a return trip to the College Football Playoffs. The league is losing some excellent quarterbacks this season, but the Sooners have a great one back in Heisman candidate Baker Mayfield. RBs Joe Mixon and Damaje Perine also return. And don’t forget the defense, which allowed the fewest points in the conference last season.
Why not to bet the Sooners: Mayfield loves to run the ball, and running quarterbacks often get nicked up. If he goes down, coach Bob Stoops could have a few sleepless night because the backups aren’t all that much to write home about. Bettors who lay the points and back the Sooners could have some concerns late in games as Oklahoma decides whether to pour it on or keep Mayfield off the field and healthy. Defense? Very good but perhaps not great.
Season win total pick: 11
Oklahoma State Cowboys (2015: 10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +500
Season win total: 8.5
Why to bet the Cowboys: It’s all about the offense in Stillwater, where the air assault is led by QB Mason Rudolph, who will get the job full-time this year after sharing it last season. Marcell Ateman and James Washington are two top-flight wideouts, and with the entire offensive line returning they should have plenty of time to get into their routes. The defense was banged up last season, but seven starters return. On top of all that, six of the first eight games are at home.
Why not to bet the Cowboys: If the passing game doesn’t click right from the get-go, the offensive engine could stall because the running game could be a problem. OSU had trouble running the ball last season, and it kept the defense on the field too long. The RBs don’t need to rush for 200 a game, but a first down here and there to open up the passing attack would get the job done.
Season win total pick: 10
Texas Christian Horned Frogs (2015: 11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +500
Season win total: 8.0
Why to bet the Horned Frogs: TCU has turned into a national power under coach Gary Patterson, and some even like the team to leap-frog Oklahoma State and challenge Oklahoma for the league title. (Note: TCU gets both Oklahoma teams at home this year.) That may be a little ambitious, but the Frogs do enter the season with momentum after their triple-overtime bowl win over Oregon last season. Josh Carraway (nine sacks last year) leads a solid defense.
Why not to bet the Horned Frogs: It might be a bit of a slog early on for the offense, especially until transfer Kenny Hill (coming over from Texas A&M) figures things out. If Hill can’t get the job done, Patterson will turn to Forest Sawyer. “We will judge quarterbacks like we always have, whoever makes the offense better and who can lead the team and make less mistakes.”
Season win total pick: 9
Baylor Bears (2015: 10-3 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +800
Season win total: 9.5
Why to bet the Bears: The firing of veteran coach Art Briles in the wake of allegations of player sexual assaults could create an “Us against the world” attitude that could actually help the Bears. And there is plenty of talent still on the field for interim HC Jim Grobe, led by QB Seth Russell. It doesn’t hurt that the Bears should get off to a good start with non-leaguers against Northwestern State, Southern Methodist and Rice.
Why not to bet the Bears: Lots of off-season turmoil led to some players leaving, so who knows what the team’s state of mind will be when the rubber hits the road and conference games start? The Bears will have to stack the box and take their chances in the secondary because they have to re-build their entire front four.
Season win total pick: 8
West Virginia Mountaineers (2015: 8-5 SU, 5-8 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +1200
Season win total: 6.5
Why to bet the Mountaineers: Putting points on the board should not be an issue in Morgantown. The Mountaineers have a quality quarterback in Skyler Howard and three other AAA players at skill positions – wideouts Shelton Gibson and Jovon Durante, plus running back Rushell Shell. The offensive line has both talent and experience. WVU should improve on what was an average offense last season.
Why not to bet the Mountaineers: Bettors might want to take a wait-and-see attitude as WVU’s offense transitions from a ground game to an air attack. WVU got off to a horrendous (0-4) start in the conference last season, and this season there are no gimmee games until November.
Season win total pick: 8
Texas Tech Red Raiders (2015: 7-6 SU, 7-5-1 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +2000
Season win total: 7.0
Why to bet the Red Raiders: If you know one thing about Tech, it’s that the Red Raiders can find the end zone. TT was second in the country in scoring, passing and total yards last season, scoring 45 points a game and padding the stat sheet with 580 yards per. QB Pat Mahomes is back for another run and hopes to inch himself into the Heisman race with a quick start.
Why not to bet the Red Raiders: Simply put, the offensive line is a major concern. There wasn’t a lot of depth last season, and now it needs a complete re-build. If Mahomes has to run for his life, everything changes for Tech. Plus, the defense is a problem again this season after ranking 127th in the country in passing yards allowed in 2015.
Season win total pick: 7
Texas Longhorns (2015: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +750
Season win total: 6.5
Why to bet the Longhorns: There is some experience. Eleven starters are back – five on offense, six of defense – and word out of Austin is that coach Charlie Strong has some top-flight recruits who will be good enough to challenge for starting jobs.
Why not to bet the Longhorns: Texas hasn’t yet settled on a QB starter (Tyrone Swoopes or freshman Shane Beuchele), and that’s never a good thing. Could be unsettled without a definitive No. 1. The Longhorns gave up a lot of big plays on special teams last season, and that could be a recurring issue again this season.
Season win total pick: 5
Kansas State Wildcats (2015: 6-7 SU, 6-7 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +4000
Season win total: 5.5
Why to bet the Wildcats: Expectations are not all that high at K-State, so this could be a case of buying low. The Wildcats were a middle-of-the road team last season, don’t have a lot of big names returning, and oddsmakers don’t much like their chances of having any kind of impact in the conference. Might be a good buying opportunity, especially if they get hammered in their opener at Stanford.
Why not to bet the Wildcats: Stay away from K-State on the road. In addition to the trip west to play Stanford, the Wildcats are at West Virginia, at Oklahoma, at Iowa State, at Baylor and at TCU.
Season win total pick: 5
Iowa State Cyclones (3-9 SU, 6-5-1 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +10000
Season win total: 3.5
Why to bet the Cyclones: The offense under-performed last season (300 total points), so they hired a head coach (Matt Campbell, from Toledo) with a rep for knowing how to move the ball. Iowa State has some experienced skills position players (QB Joe Lanning, WR Allen Lazard and RB) Mike Warren. They should score more than they did last season.
Why not to bet the Cyclones: The Cyclones really need to win on opening day, at home against Northern Iowa, because things get real difficult real fast after that (at Iowa, at TCU). If the defense doesn’t step up, it could be a tough year.
Season win total pick: 4
Kansas Jayhawks (2015: 0-12 SU, 3-9 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +25000
Season win total: 1.5
Why to bet the Jayhawks: The good news is that a lot of players return. The bad news is that those players went 0-12 last year. But Week 1 (home vs. Rhode Island) looks doable.
Why not to bet the Jayhawks: Isn’t it obvious?
Season win total pick: 1 -
SEC conference college football betting preview: Alabama are favorites again
Alabama won the FBS National Championship in 2016, its fourth title since 2009, and the Crimson Tide are loaded once again.
Matt Fargo breaks down the SEC giving his advice on season win totals and odds on winning the toughest conference in college football and, once again, Alabama are the favorites heading in to the regular season.
Alabama Crimson Tide (2015: 14-1 SU, 8-7 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +150
Season win total: 10
Why to bet the Crimson Tide: After a two-year hiatus, Alabama won the FBS National Championship in 2016 which was its fourth title since 2009 and the Crimson Tide are loaded once again. The defense lost a ton of talent to the NFL but as is the case most years, Alabama does not rebuild its defense, it simply reloads. The Tide posted a winning ATS record last year for the first time since 2011-12 and being billed as the top team in the nation could lead to more winning tickets.
Why not to bet the Crimson Tide: When expectations are high, the linesmakers adjust accordingly and Alabama will be overvalued throughout the season. For a second straight season, the Tide has to replace their starting quarterback and for the first time in a decade, they will not have either of their top two running backs returning. The schedule is never easy in the SEC and for Alabama it is even more difficult with road games at LSU, Tennessee and Mississippi.
Season win total pick: Over 10
LSU Tigers (2015: 9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +350
Season win total: 10
Why to bet the Tigers: LSU had a rollercoaster season last year as it opened 7-0 but a loss at Alabama sent the Tigers into a tailspin and they finished just 9-3. There is only one way to go but up and motivation should be at its highest level this season. LSU returns 18 starters including 10 on defense and after covering half of their 12 games last season, the Tigers will be better overall. An 8-0 start before the Alabama game is a very good possibility.
Why not to bet the Tigers: The quarterback position is a big question mark for LSU as Brandon Harris has the starting job locked down but after completing just 54 percent of his passes last year, he needs to improve quite a bit. Opposing defenses will key on Leonard Fournette so Harris could see things open up. This is another case where expectations are so high (preseason top ten) that there may be no value on the Tigers, especially early in the season.
Season win total pick: Under 10
Tennessee Volunteers (2015: 9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +450
Season win total: 9.5
Why to bet the Volunteers: This is the best Tennessee team in the Butch Davis era and while it is only his fourth season, the Volunteers have not been relevant since 2007 which was the last time they won the SEC East. They are the favorites to win it this year as they return 18 starters and are one of only two teams in the SEC with a true leader at quarterback, in the case of Tennessee, that is Joshua Dobbs. Tennessee has been average for so long, it may get overlooked in spots which can create value.
Why not to bet the Volunteers: Dobbs is the leader of the team but he has yet to develop into the true passing quarterback the Volunteers had hoped for. If he cannot improve, the one-dimensional offense could struggle. While the defense returns nine starters, Tennessee has a new defensive coordinator so there could be early transition issues. Playing in the relatively easy SEC East will have the Volunteers heavily favored in many of their games.
Season win total pick: Over 9.5
Auburn Tigers (2015: 7-6 SU, 4-9 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +800
Season win total: 6.5
Why to bet the Tigers: Last year was a disaster as Auburn went just 7-6 after coming with hopes to win the SEC. A near loss against Jacksonville St.
in its second game set the tone and the Tigers dropped their first five games against the spread, finishing with just four covers in 13 games. That tends to reverse itself the following season so we should see Auburn cover more often than not. The offense was dreadful but will improve and the defense will be stronger as well.
Why not to bet the Tigers: Was last year just an aberration or was it a sign of where the program is heading? Auburn has produced fewer wins in each of the last two seasons and while that should change this year, playing in the brutal SEC West does not help matters. Three of the first four games are against Clemson, Texas A&M and LSU so a 1-3 start is more than possible and could send the Tigers reeling. The best bet could be to wait and see what happens in September before playing on this team.
Season win total pick: Over 6.5
Georgia Bulldogs (2015: 10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +850
Season win total: 8.5
Why to bet the Bulldogs: It is not too often that a 10-win team shows their head coach the door but that was the case at Georgia as Mark Richt was let go and in comes former Alabama assistant Kirby Smart. The Bulldogs have won
10 games in four of the last five years so winning was not an issue but getting over the hump was. The winning will continue and Georgia should challenge Tennessee in the SEC East and once again be good enough to cash some tickets in the right spots.
Why not to bet the Bulldogs: The decision to let Richt go will be questioned early in the season with three of the first four games coming on the road and then the showdown with Tennessee at home. Starting quarterback Greyson Lambert is back but his job is far from 100 percent secure while the defense has a very inexperienced front seven. Change can be good but that may not be the case here as early growing pains with a whole new coaching staff could take place.
Season win total pick: Under 8.5
Mississippi Rebels (2015: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +1000
Season win total: 8.5
Why to bet the Rebels: Mississippi has gotten better in each season under head coach Hugh Freeze and while it lost three first round picks to the NFL, the Rebels are loaded once again to make a run at Alabama in the SEC West.
They possess the best quarterback in the conference in Chad Kelly, have enormous depth at wide receiver and the defense should again be stout.
Mississippi has had a winning ATS record each of the last four years so why not continue that trend.
Why not to bet the Rebels: Mississippi is no longer going to be sneaking up on anyone and that includes the linesmakers which have been behind the curveball the last few years. With lofty expectations once again, more adjustments will be made so this is a team to tread lightly. The schedule is not easy with a neutral game against Florida St. to open the season and then the Rebels host Alabama two weeks later. Beating Alabama for a third straight year will be a daunting task.
Season win total pick: Under 8.5
Arkansas Razorbacks (2015: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +1300
Season win total: 7.5
Why to bet the Razorbacks: Arkansas has gotten better in each of the first three seasons under head coach Bret Bielema and there is more optimism in Fayetteville heading into this campaign. The offense needs to replace quarterback Brandon Allen but they already have a replacement in his younger brother Austin. Defensively, nine starters are back so this will be another bowl bound team. While it will not win the SEC West, the schedule sets up well with the toughest games taking place at home.
Why not to bet the Razorbacks: A new quarterback never helps but add to that a new running back and a revamped offensive line and that spells trouble for an offense that was very solid last year. While the majority of tough games are at home, that does not mean they are all winnable. The Razorbacks won three close games last season while also losing three close games so if this trend continues, betting Arkansas as a chalk will be a stressful experience.
Season win total pick: Over 7.5
Florida Gators (2015: 10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +1300
Season win total: 7.5
Why to bet the Gators: Head coach Jim McElwain brought new life into the Gators in his first season, leading them to a 10-win season and the SEC East title. While things may not be as smooth this season, there is still plenty for Florida to look forward to and should be able to challenge again in the SEC East. The defense will again be one of the best in the conference and the young offensive line is a year older. The Gators may still fly under the
radar, giving bettors good opportunities for some wins.
Why not to bet the Gators: Like a lot of teams in the SEC, the Gators have to break in a new quarterback and they struggled last season after Will Grier was suspended. While the offensive line is a year older, they are still pretty raw and allowed the most sacks in the country. Florida ended the season on a three-game losing streak and that is not ideal heading into a new season. Of their five games away from home, they will be the underdog in four which all could result in losses.
Season win total pick: Under 7.5
Texas A&M Aggies (2015: 8-5 SU, 5-8 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +1500
Season win total: 6
Why to bet the Aggies: Because of all the offseason turmoil and the quarterback carousel over the last couple years, the pressure is on head coach Kevin Sumlin but the pieces are in place for what could turn out to be a surprisingly good season for the Aggies. They have a solid defense and one of the best receiving corps in the conference and if transfer quarterback Trevor Knight can come through, Texas A&M could pull off some upsets. A 1-7
ATS run to end last season should give the Aggies early value.
Why not to bet the Aggies: After going 11-2 in the first season under Sumlin, the Aggies have won 9, 8 and 8 games the last three years and looking at what they have, surpassing those win totals could be a challenge.
The offense was not very good last year and if Knight is not the answer considering he was passed over at Oklahoma, there could be serious issues on that side of the ball. Texas A&M has covered only five games in each of the last three seasons which is not ideal for our betting purposes.
Season win total pick: Over 6
Missouri Tigers (2015: 5-7 SU, 3-9 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +2000
Season win total: 5.5
Why to bet the Tigers: Missouri was horrific on offense last season, averaging just 13.6 ppg which was 127th in the country so there is nowhere to go but up on that side of the ball. The defense allowed just 16.2 ppg, good for 5th in the nation and most of the pieces are back so it will be a stingy unit again. Barry Odom takes over as the head coach so a new face could bring good things. By covering only three games last season, the public will not be flocking to the Tigers which should present excellent value early on.
Why not to bet the Tigers: The offense was so bad that even a decent improvement may not be enough. The issue was the offensive line as it struggled all season despite being a veteran unit and now only one starter returns. That is a real problem for both the running and passing games.
Missouri won 12 and 11 games the previous two years so it was an epic fall to just five wins last season and there is nothing in place to show a big bounce back effort in 2016.
Season win total pick: Over 5.5
Kentucky Wildcats (2015: 5-7 SU, 3-9 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +3500
Season win total: 5
Why to bet the Wildcats: Offensively, the Wildcats could make huge strides as they bring back nine starters, the most in the SEC, while leaning on new co-offensive coordinators Eddie Gran and Darin Hinshaw who came over from Cincinnati. Kentucky has gotten off to 5-1 and 4-1 starts the last two seasons so if it can sustain that in the second half behind the offense, the first bowl game under head coach Mark Stoops could be in order. Six of seven home games are very winnable.
Why not to bet the Wildcats: While the offense looks to get much better, there is very little optimism on the other side of the ball. The front seven returns only two starters and of the entire unit, only 6.5 sacks from players last season are back. The secondary is strong but teams should be able to have their way before reaching that level. Stoops was brought in to take the team to the next level and he has not been able to do so thus far and it will not be happening again this season.
Season win total pick: Over 5
Mississippi St. Bulldogs (2015: 9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +3500
Season win total: 6.5
Why to bet the Bulldogs: Head coach Dan Mullin has done wonders at Mississippi St. as he has had only one losing season and the 19 wins over the last two years are the most wins in a two-year stretch in the history of the program. The Bulldogs were decent on defense last season and while they lost a lot of talent, there is enough in the hopper to be solid again.
Mississippi St. has had three straight winning seasons against the number and those were with higher expectations.
Why not to bet the Bulldogs: The loss of quarteback Dak Prescott is the biggest of all SEC teams and there were some key departures. He was one of the best players in the history of the program so he cannot be replaced.
Obviously the quarterback position will be the biggest to fill and while the defense brings back some big time talent, the Bulldogs will have their third different defensive coordinator in three years. Mississippi St. has just six home games and four extremely tough road games.
Season win total pick: Over 6.5
South Carolina Gamecocks (2015: 3-9 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +7500
Season win total: 5
Why to bet the Gamecocks: Things were getting pretty stale under the Ole Ball Coach so the hiring of head coach Will Muschamp should breathe some new life into a program that has underachieved the last two seasons. After winning 11 games for three straight years, South Carolina won only 10 games combined the last two. Expectations are very low this time around so we can expect South Carolina to be an underdog in at least nine of its 11 FBS games.
Why not to bet the Gamecocks: This is a huge rebuilding project for Muschamp who inherits little offense and does not have much depth on defense. He is a solid defensive coach but he very well could have a freshman starting at quarterback which could make for a very long season. Three of their first four games are on the road and all of those are SEC games. While they do avoid both Alabama and LSU, life in the SEC is never fun for a young team.
Season win total pick: Under 5
Vanderbilt Commodores (2015: 4-8 SU, 7-5 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +7500
Season win total: 5
Why to bet the Commodores: Similar to Missouri, the Commodores offense was dreadful, averaging just 15.2 ppg which was 125th in the country so it can only improve. Quarterback Kyle Shurmur progressed nicely as a freshman and the offensive line that was ravaged with injuries will be much more solid.
The defense kept them competitive, allowing 21 ppg which was 22nd in the nation and they will be a tight group again. Vanderbilt has the easiest schedule in the SEC heading into the season.
Why not to bet the Commodores: Vanderbilt has not recorded a double-digit win season since, well, never. While no one is expecting that to begin with, taking a big step up from four wins will still be difficult. The Commodores were competitive last season as three losses were by single digits but at the same time, only one of their four wins came by more than seven points and that came against Austin Peay of the FCS. This is a wait and see team for the first few weeks.
Season win total pick: Over 5Comment
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Pac-12 conference college football betting preview: Parody reigns in the West
Stanford's Christian McCaffrey not only accounted for more than 2700 total yards rushing and receiving, but also another 1,070 in kick return yardage.
Will Rogers breaks down the Pac-12 giving his advice on season win totals and odds on winning, perhaps, the most competitive conference in the country. There is a dog-pile of five or six teams that could potentially take down this conference championship.
Stanford Cardinal (2015: 12-2 SU, 10-4 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +320
Season Win Total: 8.5
Why to bet the Cardinal: Stanford enters 2016 as the favorite to win the conference. Last year saw them win 12 games, including a 45-16 dismantling of Iowa in the Rose Bowl, and finish #3 in the final AP Poll. They have a Heisman frontrunner in RB Christian McCaffrey, who not only accounted for more than 2700 total yards rushing and receiving, but also another 1,070 in kick return yardage.
Why not to bet the Cardinal: They have to replace four-year starter at quarterback, Kevin Hogan, who finished with a school record 35 wins. The schedule is not kind either, calling for road games against UCLA, Washington, Notre Dame and Oregon. Three of those games come in a four-week span early in the season. Playing 11 straight weeks won’t do the team any favors either.
Season Win Total Bet: Over 8.5
Washington Huskies (2015: 7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +350
Season Win Total: 8.5
Why to bet the Huskies: Many are saying that the third year will be the charm for Chris Petersen in Seattle as he has 15 starters back from a team that was much better than its 7-6 record. Three of their losses were by six points or less. QB Jake Browning now has a full year of experience under his belt, Myles Gaskin ran for nearly 1400 yards last year and the defense is believed to be the best in the Pac 12.
Why not to bet the Huskies: They haven’t had better than a third place finish in the conference dating back to 2001 with 5-4 being their best record in Pac 12 play. There is a lot of hype surrounding this team, so you can expect them to be overvalued on a game by game basis. For the season opener, the Huskies are big 24-point favorites against Rutgers. They are 2-9 SU L11 games vs. Stanford and 0-12 SU L12 vs. Oregon, their main competition in the North Division.
Season Win Total Bet: Over 8.5
UCLA Bruins (2015: 8-5 SU, 5-8 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +400
Season Win Total: 8.5
Why to bet the Bruins: Last year’s team featured a returning starter at every offensive position but quarterback. This year, sophomore signal-caller Josh Rosen is set to explode. He’s the best QB in the conference and one of the best in the entire country. On defense, they have nine returning starters back. Do not be surprised if UCLA finishes the regular season with the most wins in the Pac 12.
Why not to bet the Bruins: They have two tricky non-conference road games vs. Texas A&M and BYU. They have also lost eight straight times to Stanford, who is the opponent in the Pac 12 opener. So September could be a struggle at the betting window. Jim Mora’s team has gone just 5-8 ATS overall each of the last two seasons.
Season Win Total Bet: Over 8.5
USC Trojans (2015: 8-6 SU, 6-8 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +450
Season Win Total: 7.5
Reason to bet the Trojans: They have 10 starters back on offense, including a 1,000 yard rusher (Ronald Jones) and near-1500 yard receiver (Juju Smith-Schuster). It appears as if the program has finally gotten past all the sanctions that had been holding it down the past several seasons. When the Trojans take the field on September 3rd, they will have 81 scholarship players on the roster, which is basically a full compliment.
Reason not to bet the Trojans: Have you seen this schedule? In addition to five challenging Pac 12 road games, which include trips to Stanford, Washington and UCLA, the Trojans play both Alabama and Notre Dame! The one starter they have to replace on offense is QB Cody Kessler, so it’s a similar situation to what rival UCLA faced in 2015. USC has lost at least four games four straight years as well as six of the past seven. I’m unconvinced that retaining Clay Helton as the head coach was a wise decision.
Season Win Total Bet: Over 7.5
Oregon Ducks (2015: 9-2 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +500
Season Win Total: 8.5
Reason to bet the Ducks: For a program that’s used to high expectations, this season offers a chance to really buy low on Oregon. They are coming off a four-loss season (first since 2007) and are being picked for fifth overall in the conference, third in their own division. That’s almost unheard of in Eugene. The Ducks get both Stanford and Washington at home where they’ve gone 44-5 SU the past seven years.
Reason not to bet the Ducks: Mark Helfrich is in danger of running Chip Kelly’s once proud program back to the land of mediocrity. Helfrich was fortunate to inherit QB Marcus Mariota for his first two years, but lost as many games last year as he did in the two with Mariota. The rest of the Pac 12 has been waiting for years to get back at Oregon and 2016 may be their chance. This looks to be a program on the descent.
Season Win Total Bet: Under
Utah Utes (10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +1000
Season Win Total: 7.5
Reason to bet the Utes: At one point, this team was 6-0 last season and ranked #3 in the country. Now, Kyle Whittingham’s team is essentially being written off. That could be a huge mistake seeing as the program has gone 94-46 in 12 years under Whittingham. The schedule, while calling for five Pac 12 road games, isn’t all that daunting. The Utes will be favorites in six of their first seven games. Whittingham is 8-1 (straight up) in bowl games.
Reason not to bet the Utes: Here’s another team that must replace a four-year starter at quarterback. Not only that, but they lose RB Devontae Booker and their top two receivers as well. Last year’s 6-3 record vs. Pac 12 opponents was a high-water mark since joining the conference. The 2015 season also saw them benefit from a +13 turnover margin, which will be tough to duplicate.
Season Win Total Bet: Under 7.5
Washington State Cougars (2015: 9-4 SU, 10-3 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +1600
Season Win Total: 7.5
Reason to bet the Cougars: As long as Mike Leake is the head coach, Wazzu will continue to put up impressive numbers. QB Luke Falk is back as are seven other offensive starters from a group that averaged 486 yards per game last season. Leach’s offenses have basically averaged 31 points per game each of the last three seasons, but should blow by that number this year.
Reason not to bet the Cougars: It had been eight straight losing seasons in Pullman prior to the last one. It will be difficult to go 10-3 again against the spread and did I mention that they lost outright to Portland State in last year’s opener? They open Pac 12 play with Oregon, Stanford and UCLA in three consecutive weeks. They’ve lost three years in a row to rival Washington by an average of 21 PPG.
Season Win Total Bet: Under 7.5
Arizona Wildcats (2015: 7-6 SU, 5-8 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +1600
Season Win Total: 6.5
Reason to bet the Wildcats: Rich Rod’s team is a little under the radar, especially compared to this time a year ago. Under Rodriguez (5th year here), the Wildcats have upset at least one Top 10 team every year. I think it was very big that Rodriguez didn’t bolt for South Carolina as he’s the perfect head coach for this program. Arizona has been to seven bowl games since 2008, something only two other Pac 12 schools (Oregon and Stanford) can claim.
Reason not to bet the Wildcats: Other than a 10-4 season in 2014, there hasn’t been better than an 8-win campaign in Tucson in the last decade. A number of the Pac 12’s best teams will be coming here during the course of this season, including Washington, USC and Stanford. Rodriguez has just one winning season in the Pac 12 since coming here (2014).
Season Win Total Bet: Over 6.5
Arizona State Sun Devils (2015: 6-7 SU, 6-7 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +2000
Season Win Total: 5
Reason to bet the Sun Devils: Like their rivals in Tucson, ASU seems to be flying under the radar right now. Head coach Todd Graham had guided the program to back to back 10-win seasons in 2013 and 2014. Under Graham, the Sun Devils have won 14 of 20 Pac 12 South games. If they are able to start 4-0, which is not out of the realm of possibility, this team could have a ton of confidence moving forward.
Reason not to bet the Sun Devils: Unlike rival Arizona, Graham only has 10 starters back. He also only gets four conference home games. They will travel to USC, Oregon and Washington. Both the quarterback position and offensive line are question marks and those are arguably the two most important parts of the team. The defense has gotten progressively worse each year during Graham’s tenure.
Season Win Total Bet: Over 5.0
California Golden Bears (2015: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +2200
Season Win Total: 4.5
Reason to bet the Bears: Everyone is going to be writing this team off because they lost QB Jared Goff to the NFL. They do bring in a transfer, Davis Webb from Texas Tech, to possibly fill that position. They are just two years removed from going 5-0 ATS as a road dog in 2013. Sonny Dykes is a good head coach that has improved the win total in Berkeley each of the last two seasons.
Reason not to bet the Bears: Um, they lost Goff and his top six receivers. This looks like a clear rebuilding year. The nine returning starters are fewest in the conference. Also, top defensive player Damariay Drew tore his ACL in the Spring game. LB Hardy Nickerson transferred to Illinois. Overall, the top six tacklers from 2015 are all gone. The defense was bad in Dykes’ first two seasons. The schedule is not kind either. They play Texas out of conference and have to face both UCLA and USC as well.
Season Win Total Bet: Under 4.5
Colorado Buffaloes (2015: 4-9 SU, 7-5-1 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +6600
Season Win Total: 4.5
Reason to bet the Buffaloes: This will clearly be Mike MacIntyre’s best team. Granted, that’s not saying much considering a 10-27 record here in Boulder, but they could surpass their Pac 12 win total (2) from those three seasons this year. In the last two years, the CU has eight conference losses by a touchdown or more, so they’ve been more competitive than you think. The 18 returning starters make them the most experienced team in the conference.
Reason not to bet the Buffaloes: Again, they are just 2-25 straight up in conference play under MacIntyre. The two that they did win came against teams (Cal ’13, Oregon St ’15) that wound up going winless themselves against the rest of the Pac 12 those years. Five road games in the first eight weeks of the season not only include Oregon, USC and Stanford, but Michigan out of conference as well.
Season Win Total: Over 4.5
Oregon State Beavers (2015: 2-10 SU, 3-9 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +12,500
Season Win Total: 3.5
Reason to bet the Beavers: There’s only one way to go in year two under Gary Andersen and that’s up. Last year was not good as they lost every Pac 12 game and were outgained by more than 200 yards per game! So they’ll be a huge underdog more often than not, which means value. This year’s team is way more experienced than last year’s and will get much better play at the quarterback position.
Reason not to bet on the Beavers: Again, OSU was outgained by more than 200 YPG in Pac 12 play and didn’t win a single game last year. There is a lot of ground to make up on the rest of the conference. As you can tell, as far as the total number of wins go, the bar is still really low. Over the last two years, the Beavers have covered just five out of a possible 24 games.
Season Win Total Bet: Under 3.5Comment
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Mountain West Conference college football betting preview: Boise State ready to make some noise
It looks like the Boise State Broncos have outgrown the Mountain West, but can they make some noise on the national stage.
AAA Sports breaks down the Mountain West giving his advice on season win totals and odds on winning, in a conference that Boise State hope to use as a stepping stone to the national stage once again.
Mountain Division
Air Force (2015: 8-6 SU, 9-5 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: 15/2
Why to bet the Falcons: Quite simply, they are getting the max from this program right now. There are plenty of recruiting limitations, but the Falcons seem to have overcome the traditional roadblocks that handicap other military programs. Troy Calhoun has somehow established a talent pipeline, and once the players get to Colorado Springs they get the job done. Once again AF will feature an attacking defense that gets after opposing QBs.
Why not to bet the Falcons: That same attacking D that spends a lot of time in opposing teams’ backfields also is prone to giving up big plays – usually more than one a game. And the Falcons have had their share of hiccups – as unexpected losses to Navy and Colorado State last year attest.
Predicted win total: 9
New Mexico (2015: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: 18/1
Why to bet the Lobos: After wandering around in the wilderness for years, New Mexico is finally back on its feet. The Lobos are counting heavily on continued improvement from QB Lamar Jordan, who split time last season and had five TD passes (eight interceptions) while completing just 51 percent of his passes. He’ll get plenty of help, because NM should be able to run the ball behind a solid offensive line and veteran RBs.
Why not to bet the Lobos: Getting the defense off the field could be a problem. Over the last four years the NM defense has allowed 35 or more points 24 times. Coach Bob Davie (yes, the Notre Dame guy) simply has to figure out how to put together a decent secondary to give the Lobos a shot at contending. The front seven is decent.
Predicted win total: 7
Utah State (2015: 6-7 SU, 5-8 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: 10/1
Why to bet the Aggies: When you have a solid QB, the coaching staff can spend some time developing other areas of need – and they have a good one in Kent Myers. Myers had 1,593 passing yards and 16 TDs in less than a full season in 2015, and if he can cut down his sack total (14) Utah State will be in business. The line has some experience, and all systems are go.
Why not to bet the Aggies: The biggest losses were at the linebacker spot and in the coaching staff. In fact, there will be new offensive and defensive coordinators for the third time in three seasons, and HC Matt Wells will have to sort through all that while everyone gets into the swing of things.
Predicted win total: 8
Boise State (9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: 5/4
Why to bet the Broncos: Why not? Boise State has the look and feel of a team ready to again make some noise on a level beyond the Mountain West. They have a rising quarterback in Brett Rypien, who completed 64 percent of his passes as a freshman last season, the receiving corps returns almost intact, and they play at a pace that is too fast for most teams on their schedule. They seem to have outgrown the conference, yet they remain.
Why not to bet the Broncos: BSU was a strong team last year, but three terrible games (Utah State, New Mexico and Air Force) cost them the league title before they got things together and crushed Northern Illinois in the Poinsettia Bowl. The team will have to maintain its concentration again against inferior competition to regain its national stature.
Predicted win total: 11
Colorado State (2015: 7-6 SU, 6-6-1 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: 12/1
Why to bet the Rams: CSU is clearly on the upswing as the program gets ready to begin play in a new on-campus stadium in 2017. The Rams finished last season a much better team than they started it (despite a bowl loss to Nevada), giving them lots of confidence entering this year. An effective ground game should help them overcome a questionable air attack.
Why not to bet the Rams: Coach Mike Bobo has by all accounts pretty much nailed things as a recruiter, but the newcomers will take a while to gel as they get their feet wet. There are pockets of inexperience which will be exposed, especially on the defensive line and at skill positions.
Predicted win total: 5
Wyoming (2015: 2-10 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: 50/1
Why to bet the Cowboys: Amid a sea of inexperience, Wyoming has two solid skill position players in RB Brian Hill and WR Tanner Gentry. Bettors with a fondness for the Cowboys might be able to cash early because they play hard. In one stretch last season they covered four straight and five out of six before depth problems caught up with them.
Why not to bet the Cowboys: There is some talent on board, but not a lot of it. It’s just hard to get top-level players to come to Laramie, and the state is so small (less than 600,000 total population) that it just doesn’t produce much home-grown high school talent.
Predicted win total: 3
West Division
San Diego State (2015: 11-3 SU, 8-5-1 ATS)
Odds to win conference: 11/4
Why to bet the Aztecs: If you believe in momentum, SDSU has it. The Aztecs finished the 2015 season on the mother of all runs, their 10 straight wins culminating in a dominating 35-point victory over Cincinnati in the Hawaii Bowl. That streak included eight covers and a push as SDSU erased any memories of an early three-game losing streak. The defending league champs have enough talent to seriously contend for back-to-back titles.
Why not to bet the Aztecs: There is concern about the passing game, and they’re not really sure what they have in sophomore Christian Chapman. Complicating matters is the fact that just about every wideout of note has moved on, and the coaches need to repair that part of the offense or things could get sketchy.
Predicted win total: 9
Nevada (2015: 7-6 SU, 8-4-1 ATS)
Odds to win conference: 12/1
Why to bet the Wolf Pack: If nothing else, Nevada should be able to run the football effectively. James Butler and transfer Akeel Lynch figure to be two of the better backs in the Mountain West, and in a mid-major conference having two quality backs is sometimes enough – especially when there is so much experience returning at the non-skills offensive positions.
Why not to bet the Wolf Pack: The defensive line and linebacking corps will be undergoing a complete makeover this season, so Nevada should have plenty of difficulties against teams with legitimate offenses. This might be a step-back year after a half-decade of 7-6 seasons.
Predicted win total: 6
Fresno State (2015: 3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS)
Odds to win conference: 33/1
Why to bet the Bulldogs: The bad taste from last season’s uncomfortable 3-9 record is slowly evaporating as talent seems to be replenishing the cupboard. There is young talent up and down the roster, and if it develops at any kind of pace the Bulldogs could a team no one wants to face in October and November.
Why not to bet the Bulldogs: Fresno State has spent the last two years trying to get back on its feet after the departure of QB Derek Carr, and right now the puzzle is still incomplete. Lots of uncertainty here, and bettors will have to pay close attention to how quickly things come together.
Predicted win total: 4
San Jose State (2015: 6-7 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to win conference: 10/1
Why to bet the Spartans: The talent continues to flood to northern California, and if the planets align properly, SJSU might turns some heads in the conference. At minimum the Spartans figure to cause lots of trouble in the West Division. Senior QB Kenny Potter is a good one – 15 TDs and a 67 percent completion percentage in 2015, and those numbers only figure to get better this time around.
Why not to bet the Spartans: The foundation of the team is sturdy, but there are some areas of concern (secondary being the No. 1 problem spot). SJSU might be a year away, and bettors could get stung by buying in on this group too early.
Predicted win total: 6
UNLV (2015: 3-9 SU, 5-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: 33/1
Why to bet the Rebels: All is not lost, despite the fact that the program seems to be running in quicksand. UNLV will have three solid running backs this season, plus some talent a wideout and an offensive line that has some experience. The Rebels were actually knocking on the .500 door at mid-season in 2015 before a home overtime loss to San Jose State took the steam out of the club.
Why not to bet the Rebels: When there is uncertainty at the QB position, things can go south quickly. UNLV is not sure what is has there. Kurt Palendech completed less than half his passes last year, and spent a lot of time getting off the ground.
Predicted win total: 5
Hawaii (2015: 3-10 SU, 3-10 ATS)
Odds to win conference: 50/1
Why to bet the Rainbow Warriors: There are lots of problems, but offensive line isn’t one of them. If the front five can stay healthy, it could keep Hawaii afloat.
Why not to bet the Rainbow Warriors: Bettors need to stay away for bit, until Hawaii can shake off the effect of an insane early schedule in which it plays Cal in Australia and at Michigan in a span of eight days in an obvious money-guarantee grab. After that it’s anyone’s guess, but the program seems to be treading water.
Predicted win total: 3Comment
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AAC college football betting preview: Can Houston live up to title as "team to beat"
After a 13-1 season and a win over Florida State in the Peach Bowl, the Cougard hope to take the next step as the AAC favorites.
Will Rogers breaks down the Pac-12 giving his advice on season win totals and odds on winning, in a conference where the Houston Cougars are expected to come out on top after a 13-1 season. Can they live up to the pressure?
Houston Cougars (2015: 13-1 SU, 9-5 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +100
Season Win Total: 9.5
Why to bet the Cougars: Tom Herman’s first year at Houston was an unqualified success, with Houston winning the AAC title game and beating FSU 38-24 in the Peach Bowl to finish 13-1 off back-to-back 8-5 seasons (ranked No. 8 in the final AP poll). Balanced offense averaged 40.4 PPG (236 rush / 248 pass) led by dual-threat QB Ward (21 rush TDs / 17 passing TDs) who returns. Defense has allowed 21.8, 20.6 and 20.7 PPG each of the last three seasons, so it looks as if that side of the ball has settled in.
Why not to bet the Cougars: Just 11 starters return from last year and the Cougars open with Oklahoma on September 3. Houston also plays at Cincy (Thursday night), Navy and Memphis (Friday after Thanksgiving), three of the AAC’s best teams. Houston is “the team to beat” in 2016 and that means a HUGE target on its back.
Season Win Total Bet: Over 9.5. Oklahoma is a tough way to start but the game is at NRG Stadium (home of the Houston Texans), just FIVE miles from the Houston campus. That makes just five true road games and while three are tough (see above), the Cougars will likely go unbeaten at home (8-0 last year) and will play a minimum of 13 games. Houston could play 14 (if it wins AAC West), so getting to 10 wins is hardly a stretch.
USF Bulls (2015: 8-5 SU, 9-3-1 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +300
Season Win Total: 8.5
Why to bet the Bulls: Despite a 1-3 start to 2015, the “third year was a charm” for head coach Willie Taggert, as his Bulls won seven of their last eight regular season games (lone loss at Navy). A loss in the Miami Beach Bowl to Western Ky was disappointing but after season of 2-10 and 4-8, who’s complaining? Seven starters return on both offense and defense, including most of the team's best players. QB Flowers ran for more than 1,000 yards while throwing for almost 2300 plus RB Mack (1418 yards) is also back.
Why not to bet the Bulls: USF goes from being a ‘hunter’ to being ‘the hunted’ after last year’s strong finish and while Houston is not on the schedule, road trips to Cincy, Temple and Memphis are tough assignments. Winning eight games, after winning a total of just nine in the previous three seasons, was quite a turnaround. USF is a solid team but repeating last year’s success may be asking too much.
Season Win Total Bet: Under 8.5. I mentioned the team’s three tough conference road games (see above) plus the team hosts Navy in conference play. Two non-conference home games will be no picnic, as Northern Illinois visits Tampa on September 10 and Florida St comes to town on September 24. The Bulls will be lucky to be 2-2 after September (also play at Syracuse and note that USF is just 7-15 SU on the road the last four years), so reaching nine wins seems like ‘a bridge too far.’
Cincinnati Bearcats (2015: 7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +500
Season Win Total: 6.5
Why to bet the Bearcats: After winning 10, 10, 9 and 9 games the previous four years, the Bearcats finished 7-6 last year after losing badly (42-7) to San Diego St in the Hawaii Bowl. QB Gunner Kiel is a quality performer when healthy and while Cincy was just 4-4 in AAC play in 2015, the team was plus-167.4 YPG in conference games, the best of any team. “Home is where the heart is,” as the Bearcats are 51-12 SU on their home field the last 10 years, including 26-5 the last five seasons.
Why not to bet the Bearcats: QB Kiel may be healthy but his top five receivers from last season are all gone. Eight starters return on defense but that’s not a good thing, as Cincy allowed 31.2 PPG. The Bearcats were plagued with inconsistent play in 2015. They ranked 125th in TO margin (-1.46 per game) and 123rd in penalty yardage (72.9 per). Will that change?
Season Win Total Bet: Over 6.5. The Bearcats are no longer the ‘national player’ they were under Brian Kelly but a favorable schedule features SEVEN home games (see team’s home record above) and the only team the Bearcats face on the road that had a winning record last year is Temple. Topping last year’s win total seems highly doable.
Temple Owls (2015: 10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +700
Season Win Total: 8.5
Reason to bet the Owls: Head coach Matt Ruhle decided to stay in Philly and Temple fans are thrilled. Last year’s team opened 7-0 for the first time in school history but a 24-13 loss to Houston in the AAC title game was followed by a 32-17 loss to Toledo in the Boca Raton Bowl. Senior QB Walker managed games well last season and RB Thomas (1262 yards) is back. The defense suffered many losses form last year’s excellent unit but Temple still figures to own the conference’s best unit.
Reason not to bet the Owls: 2015 was a special year. A 7-0 start, including a win over Penn St for the first time since 1941. Temple led Notre Dame late before losing a 24-20 heartbreaker and now the team will have to deal with lofty expectations. Key losses on the defensive side of the ball make things tough and I’m not so sure QB Walker is up to the challenge, if the defense needs to get bailed out once in awhile.
Season Win Total Bet: Over 8.5. Can’t see Temple winning at Penn St on September 17 but the rest of the team’s non-conference games are manageable. Temple draws its two-toughest league games at home, hosting USF and Cincy in back-to-back games. A 2-0 sweep there means Temple has a great shot to win the AAC East, giving them 14 chances to win nine game. ‘Shaky’ vote for the over.
Memphis Tigers (2015: 9-4 SU, 6-6-1 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +1000
Season Win Total: 6.5
Reason to bet the Tigers: Memphis is off back-to-back 10-3 and 9-4 seasons but last year’s team was 8-0 before finishing just 1-4. Maybe most importantly, the Tigers lost head coach Justin Fuente to Va Tech. However, former Arizona St assistant Mike Norvell has learned under Todd Graham and Gus Malzahn. Memphis owns a reasonably soft non-conference slate plus in PK Jake Elliot (AAC’s special team p-o-y) and punter Spencer Smith (47.2 per last year), the team's kicking game is the best in the AAC.
Reason not to bet the Tigers: A new coaching staff means new systems on both offense and defense, which may mean time for a learning curve. Losing QB Paxton Lynch is YUGE and whoever wins the starting job this year will be very inexperienced (the top two candidates have never taken a snap on the FBS level).
Season Win Total Bet: Under 6.5. Memphis should open 2-0 (SE Missouri St and Kansas at home) but Bowling Green is no gimme and a trip to Oxford, where Ole Miss will have revenge on their minds, looks like a sure ‘L.’ Prior to the last two seasons, Memphis had won a total of 11 games the previous five seasons. A winning record in 2016 is not likely.
Navy Midshipmen (11-2 SU, 9-4 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +1000
Season Win Total: 6.5
Reason to bet the Midshipmen: Navy won a school-record 11 games last season and the school dodged a bullet when head coach Ken Niumatalolo resisted the lure of coaching BYU in Provo. Sure, QB Reynolds is gone but backup Tago Smith has played in 18 games in his career, including a pair of starts in 2014. An amazing 16 players had at least one carry last season and does anyone think Navy’s triple-option won’t be a major weapon again this year? Navy’s defense made excellent strides last year and should improve in 2016.
Reason not to bet the Midshipmen: Replacing Keenan Reynolds, CFB’s all-time TD leader, speaks for itself. Add to that the fact that just ONE starter returns on offense and it’s easy to make the case that Navy will not match last year’s record. Visits to Air Force and USF will test the Middies plus beating Notre Dame in Jacksonville is likely a stretch.
Season Win Total Bet: Over 6.5. No way Navy earns double digit wins in 2016 but consistency has become Navy’s ‘middle name.’ After all, Navy has posted winning seasons capped by a bowl berth in 12 of the last 13 years. Navy will open the year on a 10-game home winnings streak and a 34-9 home mark the last eight years. Things will NOT change too much in 2016.
UConn Huskies (2015: 6-7 SU, 5-8 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +2000
Season Win Total: 5.0
Reason to bet the Huskies: Bob Diaco took over a 3-9 UConn team and went 2-10 in his first season. However, last year’s team was 6-7 (including a bowl loss), with its marquee win being a 20-17 upset of Houston, handing the cougars their only loss of 2015. UConn’s offense has been awful under Diaco, averaging 15.5 and 17.2 PPG but this year’s team returns 10 starters. Diaco is known for defense (he was DSC at Notre Dame) and UConn ranked 15th in scoring D and 15th in TO margin in 2015. Not all key players return in 2016 but most do.
Reason not to bet the Huskies: Even having UConn’s best offense in years, still won’t say much. QB Shirreffs will never be more than mediocre and the rushing game averaged just 125 YPG on 3.4 YPC last season. A massive swing in offense would be needed for UConn to compete for an AAC title and that’s not likely.
Season Win Total Bet: Over 5.0. UConn has three Power 5 schools on the schedule but two are at home and none of those schools had a winning record in 2015. Trips to Navy, USF and particularly to Houston seem unlikely to yield wins but the Huskies should get to six wins, enough to earn another bowl bid.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane (2015: 6-7 SU, 7-5-1 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +1600
Season Win Total: 6.5
Reason to bet the Golden Hurricane: Tulsa had 10-win (or more) seasons four times from 2007-2012 but then imploded by going 3-9 and 2-10 the next two years. However, in his first season at Tulsa (the school with the lowest enrollment of any FBS school), Philip Montgomery led them to a 6-6 regular season and only a 55-52 shootout loss to Va Tech (Beamer’s final game) in the Independence Bowl kept them from a winning season. QB Evans (4332 passing yards and 25 TDs) returns to lead an offense which averaged 37.2 PPG. He has more than enough ‘weapons’ to work with and Tulsa’s offense will keep it in most games.
Reason not to bet the Golden Hurricane: The team’s defense however, will likely be Tulsa’s undoing. When a team allows 39.8 PPG on 536.6 yards (Tulsa allowed 89 plays of 20-plus yards, the most of any school), it’s hard to keep matching an opponent score-for-score. Montgomery will need more than just one season to get this team’s defense turned around.
Season Win Total Bet: Under 6.5. More bad news comes in that the AAC’s top-three West teams (Houston, Navy and Memphis), all get Tulsa at home. Throw in a visit to Columbus vs. Ohio St and that’s likely an 0-4 stretch, meaning Tulsa would need to win seven of its other eight games to reach seven wins. You do the math.
East Carolina Pirates (2015: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +3500
Season Win Total: 5.5
Reason to bet the Pirates: Even including last year’s 5-7 team, East Carolina has been to eight bowls in the last 10 seasons. There’s something to be said about a winning attitude. A new head coach (Scottie Montgomery) has a new QB (Minnesota transfer Nelson) and a new “go-to” RB in Tennessee transfer Derrell Scott plus a talented group of WRs returning. The team returns a modest 11 starters but 75% of its letterman, so a .500 season could be unattainable
Reason not to bet the Sun Pirates: What is troublesome is that after averaging 40.2 PPG on 468 YPG in 2013 and 35.8 PPG on 533 YPG in 2014, ECU fell to 27.4 PPG on 415 YPG last season. ECU opens with a home game vs. Western Carolina but then it’s NC St (home) plus trips to South Carolina and Va Tech next.
Season Win Total Bet: Under 5.5. When conference play begins, ECU will play road games at USF, Cincinnati, Tulsa and Temple. The Pirates won’t be favored in a single road game all year plus face tough conference home tests vs. USF and Navy. Six wins is starting to seem like “Mission Impossible.”
SMU Mustangs (2015: 2-10 SU, 5-7 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +7500
Season Win Total: 3.5
Reason to bet the Mustangs: Off 1-11 and 2-10 seasons, there’s no joy in Mudville (Dallas), as the bowl teams of 2009 through 2011 seem ‘light years’ in the past. However, the good news would be that nine starters return on an offense that averaged 27.8 PPG and while the defense was a ‘horror show’ (allowed 45.7 PPG on 502 YPG), seven starters are back. The team’s 5-7 ATS record revealed that SMU was more competitive than its SU record but let’s not get carried away with too much optimism. That said, QB Davis is a solid dual-threat (761 rushing / 2263 passing) plus plus two young RBs, Jones (634 yards) and West (326 yards) showed promise as freshman.
Reason not to bet the Mustangs: But oh that defense! It’s reasonable to assume it will get better (it CAN’T get worse!) but how much better? Head coach Chad Morris has is work cut out for him in his second season. The team’s schedule is not favorable either, as SMU gets TCU and Baylor from the Big 12
Season Win Total Bet: Under 3.5. A closer look at the schedule reveals that all four conference home games are against the AAC’s top-tier (Houston, Memphis, USF and Navy). TCU comes to Dallas, leaving Liberty as SMU’s only probable home win. It’s tough to get to four wins with this year’s schedule.
UCF Knights (2015: 0-12 SU, 2-10 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +10000
Season Win Total: 5.0
Reason to bet the Knights: It’s obviously rare when a program goes from 31 wins over a three-year span with three bowl appearances (including a shocking 52-42 win over Baylor as a 16-point dog in the Fiesta Bowl two years ago), to a winless 0-12 campaign. However, that is the story of UCF football in 2015, after a brilliant three-year run from 2012-14. That said, new head coach Scott Frost may be stepping into a good situation, as the 2015 season was plagued by inexperience and injuries. Ten starters return on offense and seven on defense and don’t things almost HAVE to improve?
Reason not to bet the Knights: However, a word of caution is needed, as UCF not only matched Kansas as the nation’s only winless programs among FBS schools but also the team’s 2-10 ATS record was an FBS-worst! Clearly, the Knights will be better in 0-12 (couldn’t be worse) but the question remains; how much better?
Season Win Total: Under 5.0. QB Holman did lead this team to a conference title back in 2014 and he’s got a number of playmakers on offense, while the defense is a veteran unit. A jump to four or five wins is not out of the question but getting back to .500 (which is needed to cash this ticket), seems like a stretch.
Tulane Green Wave (2015: 3-9 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +20000
Season Win Total: 3.5
Reason to bet the Green Wave: Willie Fritz takes over in New Orleans after leading Georgia Southern to a 9-3 season in 2015, including a 58-27 rout of Bowling Green in the GoDaddy.com Bowl. He inherits a talented and deep group of RBs, perfectly suited for his style (Ga. Southern led the nation in rushing in each of his two seasons at the helm). The defense MUST improve but eight starters do return.
Reason not to bet on the Green Wave: Tulane has had just one winning season (7-6 in 2013) over the last decade and new head coach Willie Fritz comes from Georgia Southern, a team which ran 1370 times last year and passed just 292. He inherited that type of offense at his previous stop but he will need to re-tool here in New Orleans. Clearly, that will take time.
Season Win Total Bet: Under 3.5. Tulane’s won just 11 road games over the last 10 years (even in 2013 the team won just two road games) and more than one road win would be a real shocker. That means Tulane would need three home wins and don’t expect Navy, Memphis or Temple to comply. That means Tulane must sweep Southern, UL Lafayette and SMU. Possible, but I wouldn’t bet on it.Comment
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Sun Belt Conference college football betting preview: Could be wide open all season
Appalachian St. Mountaineers led the Sun Belt in offense last season and bring back one of the best quarterbacks in the conference in Taylor Lamb.
Matt Fargo breaks down the Sun Belt, giving his advice on season win totals and odds on winning this always entertaining conference. It appears to be a three-horse race for the title with Appalachian State, Arkansas State, and Georgia Southern all very close in talent - and futures odds.
Appalachian St. Mountaineers (2015: 11-2 SU, 6-7 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +225
Season win total: 8.5
Why to bet the Mountaineers: It was another solid season for Appalachian St. which won 11 games overall including a 7-1 record in the Sun Belt. The Mountaineers have gone 13-3 since joining the FBS and they should be just as strong this season with 16 starters returning and they do not have to play Arkansas St. which is another team projected to challenge for the championship.
Why not to bet the Mountaineers: Expectations are high once again in Boone which can make the Mountaineers a very overvalued team once again. They led the Sun Belt in offense last season and bring back one of the best quarterbacks in the conference in Taylor Lamb but three of his top four receivers are gone. They closed the season on a 1-5 ATS run after a 9-3-1 ATS streak prior to that going back to 2015.
Season win total pick: Under 8.5
Arkansas St. Red Wolves (2015: 9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +225
Season win total: 7.5
Why to bet the Red Wolves: Arkansas St. is in the mix every year despite head coaches and coordinators being scooped up by bigger schools and last year was no exception. Head coach Blake Anderson patched together all of the holes for the Red Wolves to go undefeated in the conference. The defense will lead the way in what should be a chance to make it to a sixth straight bowl game.
Why not to bet the Red Wolves: The offense has plenty of holes to fill including replacing quarterback Fredi Knighten as well as learning a new system after offensive coordinator Walt Bell left for the same position at Maryland. Maybe there was luck involved last season as the Red Wolves led the FBS with eight defensive touchdowns and tied for second in the nation with 34 turnovers gained.
Season win total pick: Over 7.5
Georgia Southern Eagles (2015: 9-4 SU, 9-4 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +250
Season win total: 8
Why to bet the Eagles: Georgia Southern is the third team predicted to contend for the Sun Belt title following consecutive nine-win seasons and going to its first ever bowl game in 2015. The offense will be explosive once again with its option attack that led the nation in rushing last season and is a tough one to defend. The defense, which was second last season, returns most of the pieces from its front seven.
Why not to bet the Eagles: There could be some transition issues as head coach Willie Fitz left for Tulane and is replaced by Tyson Summers who has never been a head coach at any level. His strength is defense and he will need to make some magic in the secondary that has to replace everybody. The Eagles have to play both Appalachian St. and Arkansas St.
Season win total pick: Over 8
UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (2015: 4-8 SU, 4-7-1 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +800
Season win total: 6.5
Why to bet the Cajuns: Last season was a major disappointment as the Cajuns failed to possess a winning record for the first time under head coach Mark Hudspeth so there should be a big rebound in Lafayette. The offense, despite having to replace its starting quarterback, should be better with All American candidate Elijah McGuire at running back while the defense has nowhere to go but up.
Why not to bet the Cajuns: While last year is considered an aberration by most, this could be a team on the decline and void of the talent to compete with the top three. It will be up to the defense to turn things around but it was so bad last season that a big step up may not even be enough. The Cajuns had just 11 takeaways last season. Defenses will key on McGuire so a passing game has to emerge.
Season win total pick: Under 6.5
Troy Trojans (2015: 4-8 SU, 7-5 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +1000
Season win total: 6
Why to bet the Trojans: It does not seem that long ago when Troy used to dominate the Sun Belt but in reality, it has been a long time. The Trojans have not had a winning season since 2010 but things should be on the rise this year as head coach Neal Brown enters his second season. They lost three games by a total of 12 points and welcome back the one of the top quarterbacks in the conference in Brandon Silvers.
Why not to bet the Trojans: While being called a dynasty in the past may be an overstatement, Troy has fallen on hard times and it may take more to get back up than most people may think. While Silvers is solid, there is little around him as far as playmakers and the defense lost its best player. While not quite in rebuild mode, it will be tough for the Trojans to keep up in the top half of the Sun Belt.
Season win total pick: Under 6
Georgia St. Panthers (2015: 6-7 SU, 8-4-1 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +1400
Season win total: 4.5
Why to bet the Panthers: Georgia St. was the story of the Sun Belt last season as after going a combined 1-23 in 2013 and 2014, it closed the regular season on a four-game winning streak to finish 6-6 to earn its first ever bowl berth. That momentum can carry forward for the Panthers which will be led by a defense that was solid last season and brings back nine starters so it should be even stronger.
Why not to bet the Panthers: Georgia St. is no longer a pushover which means it will not be sneaking up on any team this season. The Panthers lost the SBC Offensive Player of the Year in quarterback Nick Arbuckle and he will be impossible to replace. The Panthers cashed at the betting window frequently last season but the linesmakers will be making their adjustments this year.
Season win total pick: Over 4.5
Idaho Vandals (2015: 4-8 SU, 7-5 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +2500
Season win total: 3.5
Why to bet the Vandals: Going 4-8 last season may not sound very promising but considering the Vandals won three games in the previous three seasons combined, last year was a huge success. Taking another big step forward will be tough but the offense has the potential to become explosive and bottom half of the conference is so bad that Idaho could sneak into a bowl game for the first time since 2009.
Why not to bet the Vandals: While last season may be considered a success, it can also be considered what could have been as the Vandals blew big leads against New Mexico St. and South Alabama to miss out on a bowl game. The results in 2016 will largely come from how the defense performs as it has to improve immensely from its 123rd ranking in scoring defense from last season.
Season win total pick: Over 3.5
South Alabama Jaguars (2015: 5-7 SU, 4-8 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +2500
Season win total: 3
Why to bet the Jaguars: South Alabama has been a .500 or so team the last three seasons so it knows how to win but has not been able to get over the hump. A three-game losing skid to end last season denied it a second straight bowl game so that should provide plenty of motivation going into this season. But an upset along the way could mean plenty of opportunities in the second half of the season.
Why not to bet the Jaguars: South Alabama has a very strong chance of starting the season 1-5 before the schedule eases up but by then, the towel could already be tossed in. Defense could be an issue for the Jaguars, who return only five starters from a unit that gave up 35.8 ppg in Sun Belt games while allowing 45 or more points five times and had a conference-low eight sacks.
Season win total pick: Over 3
New Mexico St. Aggies (2015: 3-9 SU, 5-7 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +3300
Season win total: 3
Why to bet the Aggies: The three victories last season were the most for the Aggies since 2011 and three of their nine losses were by a touchdown or less so things could be looking up in Las Cruces. New Mexico St. will have a very strong rushing attack and while the defense was horrible, the hiring of former Boston College head coach Frank Spaziani as defensive coordinator should provide a big lift.
Why not to bet the Aggies: New Mexico St. has not had a winning season since 2002, has surpassed four wins only once since 2003 and has not been to a bowl game since 1960 so backing this team may seem lethal. While Spaziani is a great hire, it takes players and talent to greatly upgrade the defense and the Aggies just do not have that. A 1-8 start to the season is not out of the question.
Season win total pick: Over 3
UL-Monroe Warhawks (2015: 2-11 SU, 5-7-1 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +4000
Season win total: 3.5
Why to bet the Warhawks: After seeing its win total drop in each of the last three years, UL-Monroe fired head coach Todd Berry and hired McNeese St.
head coach Matt Viator so change could be good. Only two of the Warhawks 11 losses were by single digits while only one win came against a team from the FBS so there will be plenty of value early in the season as the public will want nothing to do with them.
Why not to bet the Warhawks: The Warhawks bring back most of their offense but that offense was inept at times last season so it will be hard to gauge how much improvement there will be. Defensively, they were good at times and atrocious in others and 2016 is a complete unknown as the whole unit is rebuilding. It does not help that the Warhawks have to play on the road against the top three teams in the conference.
Season win total pick: Under 3.5
Texas St. Bobcats (2015: 3-9 SU, 3-9 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +10000
Season win total: 3
Why to bet the Bobcats: Texas St. improved its win total in each of its first three years at the FBS level but dropped to just three wins last season so there is plenty of room for improvement. A new head coach in Everett Withers could breathe new life into the program. All but one loss last season was by double-digits so we will be seeing some big underdog numbers to take advantage of.
Why not to bet the Bobcats: While it was a surprisingly bad season last year, it would be more surprising if the Bobcats show much improvement this season. Every position on the offense is up for grabs in the fall and Withers stated that 45 percent of the roster has been turned over in the offseason. It will be a tough early part of the season with a first FBS win likely not coming until November.
Season win total pick: Under 3Comment
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ACC college football betting preview: Can anyone stop Clemson's offense?
Clemson QB Deshaun Watson returns as do most of the skill players from last year’s offense that averaged 38.5 points and 515 yards per game.
Matt Fargo breaks down the ACC with the Clemson Tigers and the Florida State Seminoles expected to battle it out all season long for the conference crown.
Atlantic Division
Boston College Eagles (2015: 3-9 SU, 4-7-1 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +7500
Season win total: 6
Why bet the Eagles: Boston College went just 3-9 in 2015, but five of their nine losses came by 4 points or less. The Eagles had the best defense in the country based on yards allowed per game (254), and with 7 returning starters on that side of the ball, expectations are quite high. The stop unit will be the strength of this team in 2016.
Why not bet the Eagles: The Eagles’ offense was atrocious last season as they only averaged 17.2 points on 276 yards per game. Eight starters return, and former Kentucky quarterback Patrick Towles is likely to be under center for the Eagles. Boston College must answer major questions on offense in order to have a winning season in 2016.
Season win total pick: Over 6
Clemson Tigers (2015: 14-1 SU, 8-6-1 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +160
Season win total: 10.5
Why bet the Tigers: Clemson’s offense is dynamic and virtually unstoppable. QB Deshaun Watson returns as do most of the skill players from last year’s offense that averaged 38.5 points and 515 yards per game. Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney has led the Tigers to a 56-12 record over the last five seasons.
Why not bet the Tigers: Defense. Clemson’s stop unit regressed last season, allowing 5 points and 52 yards per game more than they did in 2014. They only gave up 16.7 points and 261 yards per game the season before last. They need to replace six starters who left for the NFL. That’s way too much talent to replace in one season, and enough reason to expect some slippage in 2016.
Season win total pick: Under 10.5
Florida State Seminoles (2015: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +215
Season win total: 10
Why bet the Seminoles: Florida State returns 17 total starters; the most they’ve had in 20 years. The defense made big strides last season by limiting opponents to just 4.7 yards per play, so expect the Seminoles to have one of the best stop units in the country. Clemson is the preseason favorite in the ACC, but we’ll give the nod to Florida State, especially since the Seminoles will host the Tigers at home this season.
Why not bet the Seminoles: The quarterback position is a concern. However, the Seminoles have an excellent running back in Dalvin Cook who will take the pressure off the signal caller. But Cook can’t carry the offense on his own, so whoever wins the QB job will play a major role in determining Florida State’s outcome in 2016.
Season win total pick: Over 10
Louisville Cardinals (2015: 8-5 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +1050
Season win total: 9
Why bet the Cardinals: Louisville has a lot of momentum after winning six of their last seven games to closeout last season. The Cardinals will have a potent offense with QB Lamar Jackson and all of the playmakers returning. Bobby Petrino rarely gets out-coached, and with Louisville under the radar this season, the Cardinals will surprise some opponents.
Why not bet the Cardinals: The Cardinals play a tough schedule in 2016. Louisville will host Florida State and then play at Clemson over a three-week span. They’ll also close the season by playing three of five games on the road, including a difficult out-of-conference game at Houston in mid-November.
Season win total pick: Under 9
NC State Wolfpack (2015: 7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +4500
Season win total: 6
Why bet the Wolfpack: NC State has had back-to-back good seasons after going just 3-9 in head coach Dave Doeren’s first year back in 2013. The Wolfpack have a strong rushing attack that has averaged over 200 yards per game the last two seasons. Top rusher, Matthew Dayes, returns, and that makes NC State a dangerous team in 2016.
Why not bet the Wolfpack: The team returns just 6 total starters on offense, and they lost quarterback Jacoby Brissett to the NFL. Their road schedule is brutal in conference play. Trips to Clemson and Louisville in back-to-back weeks plus a game at North Carolina will prove to be too much for the Wolfpack.
Season win total pick: Over 6
Syracuse Orange (2015: 4-8 SU, 8-4 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +16000
Season win total: 5.5
Why bet the Orange: Syracuse returns 16 starters overall in 2016. The Orange offense returns eight starters from a unit that improved by 10.2 points per game in 2015. Syracuse’s offense will be even better this season with experience. Despite eight losses in 2015, the Orange were somewhat competitive as four of their losses came by 10 points or less.
Why not bet the Orange: Syracuse’s program is going thru changes once again. The Orange will run a new system under new head coach Dino Babers. He wants to speed things up with an up-tempo attack, but implementing new systems takes time. Syracuse’s season hinges on how quickly they adapt to Babers and his schemes.
Season win total pick: Under 5.5
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (2015: 3-9 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +14000
Season win total: 6
Why bet the Demon Deacons: Head coach Dave Clawson will be in his third year at Wake Forest, and after improving on both sides of the ball last year, the Demon Deacons may be poised for their first winning season since 2008. Wake Forest returns 16 starters overall, including nine on offense. The Demon Deacons have low expectations, but they have a chance to surprise in 2016.
Why not bet the Demon Deacons: Wake Forest closed the 2015 season by losing six straight games and eight of their last nine games overall. The team is low on the confidence meter, so getting a couple of wins early will be of utmost importance. The Demon Deacons need to improve significantly on offense; they’ve averaged just 14.8 and 17.4 points per game over the last two seasons.
Season win total pick: Under 6
Coastal Division
Duke Blue Devils (2015: 8-5 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +6000
Season win total: 5.5
Why bet the Blue Devils: Head coach David Cutcliffe’s ability to coach quarterbacks and run high-scoring offenses has been evident for Duke over the last four years. The Blue Devils have averaged 31.5 points per game or more since 2012. Things should be the same in 2016 with an experienced quarterback and six offensive starters returning.
Why not bet the Blue Devils: Duke plays a very tough road schedule this season, and it’s going to be extremely difficult for them to finish with a winning record. The Blue Devils will play at Northwestern and at Notre Dame in out-of-conference games in September. Duke also won four games by 6 points or less last season, and close wins tend to reverse themselves the following season.
Season win total pick: Under 5.5
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (2015: 3-9 SU, 3-9 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +3000
Season win total: 6.5
Why bet the Yellow Jackets: Georgia Tech has a lot of positives working in their favor for 2016. Expectations are extremely low in Atlanta for the first time in awhile, so the Yellow Jackets may catch some teams by surprise. Six of Georgia Tech’s nine losses last season came by 8 points or less.
Why not bet the Yellow Jackets: The Yellow Jackets have leveled off under head coach Paul Johnson. In his first two years, Georgia Tech went 20-7 but they have only averaged 7 wins per season since. They bottomed out at 3-9 in 2015. Three of their last four games of the season will be on the road, so they must win at home early or another losing season will be had for Georgia Tech in 2016.
Season win total pick: Over 6.5
Miami Hurricanes (2015: 8-5 SU, 8-4-1 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +1050
Season win total: 7.5
Why bet the Hurricanes: Miami has a new head coach for 2016, former Georgia coach Mark Richt. He steps into a terrific situation in South Florida. The Hurricanes’ offense will be much improved under Richt, especially returning quarterback Brad Kaaya. He has all the tools to be an excellent college QB. Overall, Miami’s offense returns nearly intact, including all five starters along the offensive line.
Why not bet the Hurricanes: Miami’s defense was awful last season while giving up 5.8 yards per play. New defensive coordinator Manny Diaz has plenty of experience returning, but Diaz will be running new schemes. The ACC has some strong offensive teams, and Miami’s defense needs to improve dramatically in 2016.
Season win total pick: Over 7.5
North Carolina Tar Heels (2015: 11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +1050
Season win total: 8.5
Why bet the Tar Heels: North Carolina returns 14 starters from their 11-3 team in 2015. Head coach Larry Fedora has an explosive offensive scheme that is difficult to stop; the Tar Heels have averaged 36.8 points and 457.3 yards per game in his four years. A repeat of their 2015 season isn’t out of the question, especially with an experienced team.
Why not bet the Tar Heels: Even though Fedora’s system is ‘plug-and-play’ to an extent, North Carolina will miss quarterback Marquis Williams. His ability to make plays with his legs will be a dimension missing from North Carolina’s offense this season. There is also concern for serious regression in 2016 after the Tar Heels had their best season in decades.
Season win total pick: Over 8.5
Pittsburgh Panthers (2015: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +2200
Season win total: 7.5
Why bet the Panthers: The Panthers will welcome back 16 starters for head coach Pat Narduzzi’s second season. Pittsburgh went 8-5 in 2015 with three of their five losses coming by 7 points or less. And with a year’s experience of Narduzzi’s schemes under their belts, expectations are actually high in Pittsburgh for the 2016 season.
Why not bet the Panthers: Pittsburgh won eight games for the first time since 2008. Off such a turnaround, there’s potential for regression, especially since five of those wins came by 8 points or less. The Panthers will also play a brutal road schedule with games at Oklahoma State and at North Carolina in back-to-back weeks. Pittsburgh will also play at Miami and at Clemson in consecutive weeks in November.
Season win total pick: Under 7.5
Virginia Cavaliers (2015: 4-8 SU, 8-4 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +14000
Season win total: 5
Why bet the Cavaliers: Former BYU head coach Bronco Mendenhall takes the same position in Virginia in 2016. Mendenhall is a huge upgrade from Mike London, and the Cavaliers were not as bad as their 4-8 record last season indicates. Five of their eight losses came by 7 points or less and they return six starters on both sides of the ball. Close losses tend to reverse the next season, and with Mendenhall’s superior coaching, the Cavaliers can surprise in 2016.
Why not bet the Cavaliers: Virginia’s program was a disaster under London the last few seasons. Mendenhall has his work cut out for him, and you never know how the London recruits will take to a new voice. The Cavaliers’ defense also needs major improvement; they gave up 32.2 points on 412 yards per game last season. Virginia’s schedule is also difficult, so wins won’t come easy in 2016.
Season win total pick: Over 5
Virginia Tech Hokies (2015: 7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +1900
Season win total: 7
Why bet the Hokies: Justin Fuente is the new head coach at Virginia Tech. Fuente is known for his offensive prowess, and that’s exactly what the Hokies need. Fuente made a wise decision in keeping defensive coordinator Bud Foster on board. Fuente looks like the perfect hire for Virginia Tech, especially since he has 15 returning starters from a winning team.
Why not bet the Hokies: Legendary Virginia Tech coach Frank Beamer retired after 29 years at the helm. His overall record was 238–121–2 (.663), and he made 23 consecutive bowl-appearances from 1993-2015. That’s a lot of success and a lot of wins to replace for new head coach Justin Fuente. While the hiring of Fuente is a positive, it may take a year or two for him to take Virginia Tech to the next level.
Season win total pick: Under 7Comment
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Big Ten Conference college football betting preview: The East Division is a three-headed monster
Ohio State is 31-1 in conference play in four years under Urban Meyer, so the conference certainly goes thru the Buckeyes.
Steve Merril breaks down the Big Ten giving his advice on season win totals and odds on winning. In a conference where all of the power lies in the East Division, can a team like Iowa sneak in a big win in the championship game on December 3rd?
Big Ten East
Indiana Hoosiers (2015: 6-7 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +12000
Season win total: 6
Why bet the Hoosiers: Indiana played in their first bowl game in eight years last season, so they come into this year with some momentum. Head coach Kevin Wilson is a terrific offensive mind, and his system simply racks up points and yards in bunches. The Hoosiers return 7 starters on defense, and that unit might be much improved under new coordinator Tom Allen.
Why not bet the Hoosiers: They won more than 5 games for the first time since 2007, and they did so because of their potent offense that averaged 36.5 points on 504 yards per game. However, Indiana lost QB Nate Sudfeld and running back Jordan Howard to the NFL. The Hoosier’s defense needs major improvement; they’ve allowed 36.4 points per game since Wilson took over.
Season win total pick: Under 6
Maryland Terrapins (2015: 3-9 SU, 7-5 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +22500
Season win total: 6
Why bet the Terrapins: Maryland cleaned house on the coaching staff, and in steps new head coach DJ Durkin who cut his teeth under Urban Meyer and Jim Harbaugh. The young Durkin (38 years old) has plenty of coaching experience to work with, so the Terrapins are in good hands. Maryland returns 7 starters on offense, including two senior quarterbacks. The early schedule is quite easy, so expect Maryland to get off to a fast start.
Why not bet the Terrapins: The Terrapins still lack much talent, and their defense has regressed in three consecutive years. And even though the coaching change was a positive, it’s still going to take time for Durkin to implement his schemes on both sides of the ball. Maryland’s late season schedule is brutal, so the season may tailspin down once the calendar turns to November.
Season win total pick: Under 6
Michigan Wolverines (2015: 10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +240
Season win total: 9.5
Why bet the Wolverines: Michigan is ultra talented and experienced. Jim Harbaugh is one of the best coaches in college football. Harbaugh increased Michigan’s scoring average 10.5 points per game in his first season; the Wolverines went from averaging 20.9 points per game in 2014 to 31.4 points per game in 2015. Michigan will have one of the best defenses in the country even with new coordinator Don Brown calling the shots.
Why not bet the Wolverines: The secret is out on Michigan and Harbaugh. There will likely be very little value on the Wolverines this season. Michigan will play their first five games at home, and in fact six of their first seven games will be at home. The problem is all six of those opponents should be easy wins which means their toughest games will all be on the road, including a trip to Ohio State in their season finale.
Season win total pick: Over 9.5
Michigan State Spartans (2015: 12-2 SU, 5-9 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +850
Season win total: 8
Why bet the Spartans: Head coach Mark Dantonio is one of the most underrated coaches in the country. Dantonio has orchestrated outstanding defenses, and that shouldn’t change this season. The Spartans have held their opponents to just 21.7 points per game or less in five straight seasons. Michigan State will rely on their defense to win games once again in 2016, and since that formula has worked well for the Spartans in recent years, there’s no reason it won’t be effective this season.
Why not bet the Spartans: Michigan State only returns 10 starters from last year’s 12-2 team that played in the College Football Playoff. The Spartans are much more inexperienced than they’ve been in the past, so that may cause them to regress some this season. Michigan State’s offense must replace QB Connor Cook who is now in the NFL. The quarterback position is the biggest question mark for the Spartans heading into the 2016 season.
Season win total pick: Over 8
Ohio State Buckeyes (2015: 12-1 SU, 6-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +170
Season win total: 9.5
Why bet the Buckeyes: Ohio State is 31-1 in conference play in four years under Urban Meyer, so the conference certainly goes thru the Buckeyes. Ohio State will host Michigan after thumping the Wolverines 42-13 in Ann Arbor last season, so it’s easy to see why the Buckeyes are the clear-cut favorites to win the Big Ten.
Why not bet the Buckeyes: Head coach Urban Meyer was quoted that last year’s Ohio State team would be his best. They came up short in a loss to Michigan State, and the Buckeyes now have to replace 16 outgoing starters. While it’s true they simply reload, the inexperience will likely get them at some point this season. Ohio State will be overpriced in just about every game, so be careful when backing the Buckeyes in 2016.
Season win total pick: Over 9.5
Penn State Nittany Lions (2015: 7-6 SU, 4-9 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +2300
Season win total: 7
Why bet the Nittany Lions: Penn State will play their third season under head coach James Franklin, and with 14 starters returning, expect a breakout season in State College. Running back Saquon Barkley leads an offense that returns nine starters for new offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead. His play-calling should spark an offense that has averaged less than 24 points per game in Franklin’s first two seasons.
Why not bet the Nittany Lions: The biggest concern coming into 2016 for Penn State is their inexperienced defense. The Nittany Lions only return 5 starters on that side of the ball, and they lost coordinator Bob Shoop to Auburn. Defense has been Penn State’s team strength over the last few seasons, but their are signs that indicate the stop unit will regress some in 2016.
Season win total pick: Over 7
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2015: 4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +50000
Season win total: 6
Why bet the Scarlet Knights: Rutgers was a complete and utter mess last season. The team had no direction from their head coach who was suspended for three games, and they were simply decimated by injuries. Chris Ash is the new head coach, and he has a lot of work to do. But the good news is Rutgers returns 16 starters, and off a disappointing 4-8 season in 2015, there’s plenty of motivation for the Scarlet Knights.
Why not bet the Scarlet Knights: The program was in free fall last season, so it’s not like Rutgers will be able to just flip a switch in 2016. Their road schedule is absolutely brutal with games at Washington, at Ohio State, and at Michigan State. The Scarlet Knights will play a brutal 3-game set against Iowa, the aforementioned Buckeyes, and Michigan. There’s optimism for Rutgers, but taking a wait and see approach may be the best thing to do early on.
Season win total pick: Over 6
Big Ten West
Illinois Fighting Illini (2015: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +15000
Season win total: 6
Why bet the Fighting Illini: Illinois suffered thru another losing season after going 5-7 in 2015. The Illini haven’t had a winning season since 2011, so there’s nowhere to go but up for new head coach Lovie Smith. Expectations are extremely low in Champaign, so the Illini may be able to surprise some teams this year. Illinois only returns 11 starters, but with a former NFL coach, the team may take to Smith sooner than expected.
Why not bet the Fighting Illini: The program has been in steady decline over the last decade, and the talent has dropped off significantly. Losing teams are hard to back, especially when they are just 17-32 over the last four seasons. Lovie Smith has been in the NFL for the past 20 years, having last coached a college team in 1995. The game has dramatically changed over that time, so the hiring of Smith is somewhat puzzling. The schedule is also very difficult, so expect another losing season for Illinois in 2016.
Season win total pick: Under 6
Iowa Hawkeyes (2015: 12-2 SU, 8-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +850
Season win total: 8.5
Why bet the Hawkeyes: Iowa was one of the surprises in the Big 10 last season after going 12-2 overall, and a perfect 8-0 in the conference. Quarterback C.J. Beathard returns after throwing for over 2,800 yards with 17 touchdown passes in 2015. The Hawkeyes are terrific at controlling the ball with their rushing attack, and then turning to their stout defense to close games out late. Iowa’s defense will once again be one of the best in the entire conference.
Why not bet the Hawkeyes: Normally when a team comes out of nowhere to win as many games as Iowa did last year, they often regress the following season. That’s the concern with the Hawkeyes in 2016. Iowa’s defense will have the spotlight on them, and it’s probably a stretch to think the Hawkeyes’ offense can match last year’s numbers when they averaged 30.9 points per game on just 386 yards per game.
Season win total pick: Over 8.5
Minnesota Golden Gophers (2015: 6-7 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +6500
Season win total: 6.5
Why bet the Golden Gophers: Minnesota had back-to-back 8-5 seasons prior to going just 6-7 in 2015. But the Golden Gophers lost their coach midway thru the year, and their 5-2 start to the season went up in smoke. With 13 returning starters, 2016 should be a bounce back season for Minnesota. The Golden Gophers play a favorable schedule this season as they avoid the Big Three: Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State.
Why not bet the Golden Gophers: The Golden Gophers regressed on both sides of the ball last season, so they’ll need to bounce back strong if they want to have a winning record. Minnesota also needs significant improvement on both lines as they only ran for 144 yards per game while giving up 166 yards per game to their opponents.
Season win total pick: Over 6.5
Nebraska Cornhuskers (2015: 6-7 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +1000
Season win total: 8.5
Why bet the Cornhuskers: Nebraska will be in their second season under head coach Mike Riley, and significant improvement is quite possible. The Cornhuskers lost five games last season with just seconds left to play; six of their seven losses came by single digits. Nebraska returns 13 starters, including seven on an offense that averaged 32.8 points per game.
Why not bet the Cornhuskers: Even though Nebraska returns quarterback Tommy Armstrong, that may not be a good thing. Armstrong is mistake prone, especially late in ball games. The Cornhuskers’ defense was a similar story to Armstrong; that unit gave up 400 yards per game. Nebraska also plays a very tough schedule late in the season with three of their final five games coming on the road.
Season win total pick: Over 8.5
Northwestern Wildcats (2015: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +4200
Season win total: 7
Why bet the Wildcats: Northwestern gets little respect in the markets, but the Wildcats have proven to be a scrappy team under head coach Pat Fitzgerald. They were underdogs in six games last season, and they finished with a 10-3 SU record. Nothing is likely to change in 2016, so there will be plenty of opportunities to back Northwestern as underdogs.
Why not bet the Wildcats: Northwestern was a phony 10-win team in 2015. The Wildcats only averaged 19.5 points on just 327 yards of total offense. Northwestern was out-gained by 39.3 in conference play last season despite going 6-2 in those games. There’s plenty of reasons to expect major regression from Northwestern in 2016.
Season win total pick: Under 7
Purdue Boilermakers (2015: 2-10 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +20000
Season win total: 6
Why bet the Boilermakers: Expectations are extremely low for Purdue coming into 2016. The Boilermakers went just 2-10 last season, and they are just 6-30 over the last three seasons. Purdue will likely be big underdogs in just about every one of their games this season. With expectations so low, playing the Boilermakers will take courage, but the abundance of points will be plentiful.
Why not bet the Boilermakers: As alluded to above, Purdue will be a terrible team. The Boilermakers will be in their fourth year under head coach Darrell Hazell, and they do return 16 starters. But that still won’t be enough as the talent on hand is just not that good. Purdue is simply a bad team, so be careful when backing the Boilermakers in 2016.
Season win total pick: Under 6
Wisconsin Badgers (2015: 10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +1600
Season win total: 7
Why bet the Badgers: Wisconsin will be in their second year under head coach Paul Chryst. The Badgers went 10-3 last season because of their defense. The stop unit allowed just 13.7 points on 269 yards per game. Wisconsin has a history of winning games by controlling the ball with their running game and their stout defense; that always makes them dangerous as an underdog.
Why not bet the Badgers: The Badgers’ offense regressed by 7.8 points per game and by 90 yards per game last season. They did so despite playing an extremely easy schedule. They won’t have that luxury this season with away games against LSU, Michigan State, Michigan, and Iowa. Their strong defense also lost coordinator Dave Aranda to LSU. Overall, with just 12 returning starters, Wisconsin will fall in 2016.
Season win total pick: Over 7Comment
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C-USA college football betting preview: Thundering Herd should make some noise in 2016
Marshall isn't the favorite to win the C-USA at +350, but don't be surprised if the Thundering Herd make some noise this season.
Matt Fargo breaks down C-USA, giving his advice on season win totals and odds on winning this always entertaining conference. While it appears to be a three-horse race for the title which includes Southern Miss and Western Kentucky, it is Marshall who is becoming the power house of this mid-major conference.
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (2015: 9-5 SU, 10-4 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +260
Season win total: 8
Why to bet the Golden Eagles: After winning just three games from 2012-2014, the Golden Eagles got back to prominence as they took the C-USA West and won nine games overall. Of the other four top teams in C-USA, Southern Miss only has to play two of them, Marshall and Louisiana Tech, and both of those are at home. This team is equally solid on both sides of the ball and brings back 12 starters.
Why not to bet the Golden Eagles: Southern Miss broke school records last season on offense for both yardage and points but the architects for that offense have left as head coach Todd Monken and offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey departed. Additionally, the quarterback, leading receiver and top rusher have to be replaced so production should go down. The Golden Eagles are no longer a pushover and will not sneak up on anyone.
Season win total pick: Under 8
Marshall Thundering Herd (2015: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +350
Season win total: 8.5
Why to bet the Thundering Herd: After some very average years upon entering C-USA, Marshall is building a powerhouse. The Thundering Herd have won 33 games the last three years including three bowl wins and Doc Holiday should have his team poised to make another run in the East Division. While the conference schedule is no cakewalk, two of the three toughest games are at home.
Why not to bet the Thundering Herd: Marshall did lose a ton of talent on both sides of the ball. Offensively, it has to replace the top two receivers and two top running backs so sophomore quarterback Chase Litton could struggle early on to move the ball. On the other side, C-USA Defensive Player of the Year Evan McKelvey is gone along with other key players on defense so there are a lot of missing pieces.
Season win total pick: Over 8.5
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (2015: 12-2 SU, 8-5-1 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +385
Season win total: 8.5
Why to bet the Hilltoppers: Western Kentucky is coming off its fifth straight winning season and last year was the best of them all at 12-2. The Hilltoppers went undefeated in C-USA and after a win over South Florida in the Miami Beach Bowl, they finished No. 24 in the final AP Poll, the first time they have ever cracked the top 25. Jeff Brohm is 20-7 as the head coach at Western Kentucky but likely will not be here much longer.
Why not to bet the Hilltoppers: Even coming close to the success from last season will be difficult as there will be a lot of revenge minded teams taking aim at the Hilltoppers. It will be a tough task having to replace quarterback Brandon Doughty who won the C-USA Most Valuable Player Award.
While the Hilltoppers miss Southern Miss, the three toughest conference games this season are all on the road.
Season win total pick: Under 8.5
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (2015: 7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +625
Season win total: 7.5
Why to bet the Blue Raiders: Middle Tennessee is pegged by many to win the C-USA Championship and it certainly has the pieces in place to do so. The Blue Raiders won their last four regular season games last year and while they lost to Western Michigan in the Bahamas Bowl, they have solid momentum heading into the season. The offense should be great again and has an added edge with offensive coordinator Tony Franklin back.
Why not to bet the Blue Raiders: While Middle Tennessee has not had a losing season in four years, it has not been able to make a huge jump as they are just 29-21 over this stretch. The offense will have to carry the load as the defense has to rebuild nearly from scratch with the loss of six valuable starters. The Blue Raiders have just five home games and two of those are against Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech.
Season win total pick: Under 7.5
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (2015: 9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +800
Season win total: 7.5
Why to bet the Bulldogs: Head coach Skip Holtz has done a great job taking over for Sonny Dykes and Louisiana Tech has four winning records over the last five seasons. The Bulldogs are one of five teams to likely bring home the C-USA Championship and they may sneak up on the teams above them. An extremely tough September will prepare them well for the last two months of the season.
Why not to bet the Bulldogs: The opening month will be even tougher because of how young this team is. Louisiana Tech brings back just nine starters, the fewest in the conference, including only three on defense. While the offense is a little more experienced, a new quarterback has to replace Jeff Driskel while running back Kenneth Dixon was drafted in the fourth round showing how good he was.
Season win total pick: Under 7.5
Florida Atlantic Owls (2015: 3-9 SU, 5-7 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +2500
Season win total: 4.5
Why to bet the Owls: Florida Atlantic could be the surprise of the conference this season. The Owls have not had a winning season in three years in C-USA and have not had a winning season since 2008. This means they will again be taken lightly but that could turn into a mistake. They have 14 starters back, they are very athletic and they are bringing in a new high-powered offense which should have most teams caught off guard.
Why not to bet the Owls: Despite what looks like a good chance to turn things around, this is only on paper. The Owls have to have someone emerge at quarterback and while they have a good number of returning starters, most are very young returning starters. The home slate looks very good with plenty of wins but the road schedule is brutal with games at FIU and Rice being the only possible winnable contests.
Season win total pick: Over 4.5
Rice Owls (2015: 5-7 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +2500
Season win total: 6
Why to bet the Owls: After three straight winning seasons and three straight bowl appearances, which was a first for the program, the Owls slipped to 5-7 last season after a 4-3 start. There should be plenty of motivation to get back to a bowl game and with 16 returning starters, third most in C-USA, Rice has the ability to succeed. Rice finished 119th in turnover margin last season so that area should improve.
Why not to bet the Owls: Motivation can only take a team so far. The Owls are going to have to show dramatic improvement to get back to a bowl game as the schedule is its greatest enemy this season. They have to travel to Western Kentucky opening night and two other big challenges in the conference are also on the road. The non-conference schedule includes games against Baylor and Stanford.
Season win total pick: Under 6
UTEP Miners (2015: 5-7 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +3600
Season win total: 5
Why to bet the Miners: The Miners went to a bowl game in 2014 and had high expectations last season but injuries derailed them. They nearly became bowl eligible but because of the injuries, other players got experience which will pay huge dividends this season. The schedule sets up well as a trip to Texas is the only non-conference hurdle while UTEP closes the season with seven straight winnable games.
Why not to bet the Miners: While change can be good depending on what it entails, too much change can cause problems. The Miners are breaking in new coordinators on both sides of the ball and both are making significant changes to schemes. Things could get ugly early with that game against Texas and back-to-back games against conference contenders Southern Mississippi and Louisiana Tech in Week 4 and 5.
Season win total pick: Over 5
Old Dominion Monarchs (2015: 5-7 SU, 3-8-1 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +4000
Season win total: 5
Why to bet the Monarchs: In just two years as a full member at the FBS level, Old Dominion has gone 11-13 so there is a lot of excitement for the future of this program. And that future could start this season as the Monarchs bring back 17 starters, tied for most in the conference, so the disappointment from last season is present in many players in 2016 which can make them even more hungry.
Why not to bet the Monarchs: Old Dominion lost its season finale by two points last season which denied it a bowl berth but it would have been a fortunate one. The Monarchs won three of their games by five points or less while six of seven losses came by 20 points or more. The 5-7 record was certainly skewed and with big questions at quarterback, those close wins may not be on the horizon.
Season win total pick: Under 5
Florida International Golden Panthers (2015: 5-7 SU, 6-5-1 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +5000
Season win total: 6.5
Why to bet the Golden Panthers: Things have improved in each of the three years under head coach Ron Turner, going from one win to four wins to five wins. There is room for an even bigger jump this season thanks to nine returning starters on offense, a unit that struggled last season but should get a lot better. The schedule is ranked as one of the easier ones in the conference but it will still take an upset or two to make it to a bowl.
Why not to bet the Golden Panthers: While the front end of the schedule is light, the Golden Panthers play a stretch of four straight games against contenders so any early slip up and they could be toast. The defense was a bad unit last season and if the offense does not take a big step forward, the stop unit does not have what it takes to make up for it. FIU has only two winning seasons in the history of the program.
Season win total pick: Under 6.5
UTSA Roadrunners (2015: 3-9 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +15000
Season win total: 4
Why to bet the Roadrunners: Things have been going in the wrong direction for UTSA since entering the FBS in 2013, so in this case, change could be good. Larry Coker is no longer the head coach as Frank Wilson takes over after leaving his assistant job at LSU. The Roadrunners have a solid running game and that is the specialty of White so grinding out some wins could lead the turnaround of the program.
Why not to bet the Roadrunners: Back in 2013, the Roadrunners were the most experienced team in the country and it showed with a 7-5 record but they have not been nearly as experienced since then including this season as they return just 10 starters, second fewest in the conference. As is the case with a lot of teams in C-USA, defense is the weak point and that is an understatement for UTSA.
Season win total pick: Under 4
North Texas Mean Green (2015: 1-11 SU, 4-8 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +20000
Season win total: 2
Why to bet the Mean Green: North Texas will be doing a complete overhaul with a new head coach as well as new coordinators so teams will not be prepared for what to expect. The Mean Green bring back nine of 11 starters on defense so it will be up to that unit to hold the team together until the offense comes around. A 2-0 start is not out of the question as North Texas hosts SMU and Bethune Cookman out of the gate.
Why not to bet the Mean Green: The defense may have to carry the team all season because the offense may not come around at all. The scheme is being completely replaced and with players not recruited at some of those spots, another season of finishing 124th in scoring offense could be in store. 10 of 11 losses last season were by at least 14 points, five of which came by
30 points. It could be another long one in Denton.
Season win total pick: Over 2
Charlotte 49ers (2015: 2-10 SU, 2-7-2 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: +21000
Season win total: 2.5
Why to bet the 49ers: Despite their first season as an FBS member, the 49ers did not finish last in the conference. Not much went right last year but that was expected for a team making the jump up a level. Charlotte returns
17 starters, tied with Old Dominion for most in the conference, so while the scoreboard may not reflect many additional wins, the 49ers will be a lot more competitive
Why not to bet the 49ers: While the 49ers did not finish last, they closed the season on a 10-game losing streak and are picked to finish last this season. Experience is a good thing to have but sometimes that experience is a bad fit and that could be the case here, especially on defense. Charlotte plays three of the top five teams in the conference and has non-conference games at Louisville and Temple so the slate is a rough one.
Season win total pick: Under 2.5Comment
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Mid-American Conference college football betting preview: Can Bowling Green repeat as MAC champs?
Bowling Green quarterback James Knapke is a senior who with plenty of past starting experience, so the conference’s best offense may continue to roll on.
Steve Merril breaks down the MAC giving his advice on season win totals and odds on winning the conference championship. The oddsmakers firmly believe there will be a changing of the guard this season.
East Division
Akron Zips (2015: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +925
Season win total: 5
Why bet the Zips: Akron won a bowl game last year, so the program comes into 2016 with confidence. The Zips will be led by their defense once again; they held opponents to just 21.5 points and 332 yards per game in 2015. Their toughest conference games all come at home as well, so Akron could pose some problems in 2016.
Why not bet the Zips: The Zips only return 7 starters overall this season, and off their best season in a over a decade, there’s reason to expect regression. Akron’s offense also needs improvement as they’ve only averaged 22.2 points per game over the last three seasons.
Season win total pick: Under 5
Bowling Green Falcons (2015: 10-4 SU, 9-4-1 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +645
Season win total: 7
Why bet the Falcons: Bowling Green is the favorite to win the East on paper. The Falcons have won 28 games over the last three years, so the program has developed a winning tradition. Quarterback James Knapke is a senior who with plenty of past starting experience, so the conference’s best offense may continue to roll on.
Why not bet the Falcons: The Falcons return just 11 starters, and they lost coach Dino Babers to Syracuse. Replacing Babers is Mike Jinks who cut his teeth at the high school level in Texas. Jinks will run a high-tempo offensive attack at Bowling Green, but college is another level, so Jinks’ inexperience may hurt the Falcons some this season.
Season win total pick: Over 7
Buffalo Bulls (2015: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +1700
Season win total: 5
Why bet the Bulls: Buffalo will be in the second year of head coach Lance Leipold’s system, so more improvement should be forthcoming. The Bulls’ defense improved by 3.9 points per game in 2015, and with 8 returning starters on that side of the ball, Buffalo may be tough to beat by margin.
Why not bet the Bulls: The Bulls will have the least experienced team in the conference, and their offense is starting all over with just 3 players back on that side of the ball. Pair that with a brutal road schedule, and it appears that matching their five wins from last year will a tough task to duplicate.
Season win total pick: Under 5
Kent State Golden Flashes (2015: 3-9 SU, 4-7-1 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +1550
Season win total: 4.5
Why bet the Golden Flashes: Kent State returns 18 starters in 2016, so they are set for their best season in quite some time. The Golden Flashes have the most experienced team in the entire country. Their defense was strong last season despite the nine losses; they held opponents to just 26.1 points and 350 yards per game.
Why not bet the Golden Flashes: The Golden Flashes’ offense was downright pathetic last year while averaging just 13.1 points and 271 yards per game. Kent State will also play a very difficult schedule with trips to Penn State and Alabama preceding conference road tilts at Central Michigan and Bowling Green.
Season win total pick: Over 4.5
Miami Redhawks (2015: 3-9 SU, 7-5 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +1900
Season win total: 4
Why bet the Redhawks: Miami will be in their third year under head coach Chuck Martin. He returns 16 starters, including 10 on the offensive side of the ball. The Redhawks had four losses by 9 points or less, so they were a competitive bunch despite their terrible record. With more improvement, Miami has potential to improve once again in 2016.
Why not bet the Redhawks: The team simply lacks much talent. Overall, Miami has been out-scored by 11.8 points per game under Martin. The experience is mainly sophomores, so the Redhawks are still another year away from making noise in the MAC. The tough road schedule does Miami no favors either, so expect a max of about 5 wins in 2016.
Season win total pick: Over 4
Ohio Bobcats (2015: 8-5 SU, 9-4 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +850
Season win total: 7.5
Why bet the Bobcats: The Bobcats went 8-5 last season after three consecutive losing years. The down years were expected as Ohio was a young and inexperienced team learning head coach Frank Solich’s system. The payoff is forthcoming as the Bobcats return quarterback JD Sprague who gained valuable experience when filling in for injured quarterback Derrius Vick last season. Sprague is a dual threat QB which is a key component in Solich’s offensive schemes.
Why not bet the Bobcats: Ohio has been hit hard by the injury bug over the last few seasons, and it just seems as if the team can’t avoid the injuries. Ohio’s defense also tends to get overwhelmed by strong offenses, and if that’s the case once again this season, their high expectations will be tossed by the wayside.
Season win total pick: Over 7.5
West Division
Ball State Cardinals (2015: 3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +5000
Season win total: 4.5
Why bet the Cardinals: Ball State went 19-7 under Pete Lembo in 2012 and 2013, but the Cardinals went just 8-16 over the last two years. Things got stale in Muncie under Lembo. He left for Maryland and in steps Mike Neu. A fresh voice may be just what Ball St needs right now, and since he’s a former Ball State player, the team may respond well to him in his first year on the job.
Why not bet the Cardinals: The Cardinals went 3-9 in 2015, and they’ll be hard-pressed to have a better record in 2016. Ball State is an experienced team with 15 returning starters, but Neu is inexperienced as a head coach. The schedule consists of seven road games with five of those coming before mid-October. A bad start could see their whole season spiral out of control.
Season win total pick: Under 4.5
Central Michigan Chippewas (2015: 7-6 SU, 9-4 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +725
Season win total: 7
Why bet the Chippewas: Central Michigan should improve in their second year under head coach John Bonamego. The Chippewas return 16 starters from last year’s team that went 7-6. The stop unit projects to be very good this year, and that makes Central Michigan a sleeper in the MAC.
Why not bet the Chippewas: Central Michigan’s offense must become more consistent. The Chippewas scored 14 points or less in four games, and they scored 31 points or more in four other games last season. That puts too much pressure on their defense. The early schedule is brutal with out of conference road trips to Oklahoma State and Virginia.
Season win total pick: Over 7
Eastern Michigan (2015: 1-11 SU, 4-8 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +15000
Season win total: 3.5
Why bet the Eagles: Eastern Michigan is in their third season under head coach Chris Creighton. The Eagles return 16 starters, and after going just 3-21 over the last two years, there’s nowhere to go but up for Eastern Michigan. Expectations are extremely low in Ypsilanti, so the Eagles may be able to surprise a couple of opponents in 2016.
Why not bet the Eagles: The Eagles lack serious talent as evident by getting out-scored by 16.7 points per game in 2015. Eastern Michigan also owns a terrible defense that needs major improvement to become a competitive team. Over the last two seasons, Eastern Michigan has allowed an average of 41.5 points and 509 yards of offense per game.
Season win total pick: Under 3.5
Northern Illinois Huskies (2015: 8-6 SU, 9-5 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +565
Season win total: 8.5
Why bet the Huskies: Northern Illinois is a yearly contender in the MAC. The Huskies return 13 starters in 2016, and they’ll be in the fourth year of head coach Rod Carey’s system. The team is built to be a physical running team, and with a senior-laden roster, Northern Illinois will be a formidable team once again this season.
Why not bet the Huskies: There’s still work ahead of Northern Illinois, especially on defense. They gave up 418 yards per game last season; they allowed 89 total points in their last two games. The defensive line lost two key contributors to graduation, and the Huskies are only returning six starters overall on that side of the ball.
Season win total pick: Under 8.5
Toledo Rockets (2015: 10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +620
Season win total: 7.5
Why bet the Rockets: Toledo has won 9 games or more in four of the last five seasons. The program has a winning tradition. The Rockets return 7 starters from an offense that averaged 35 points on 461 yards of offense per game in 2015. Toledo has only lost 5 home games over the last four years, so they will be in contention as long as they maintain their dominance at home.
Why not bet the Rockets: Head coach Matt Campbell left for Iowa State, so in steps Jason Candle who has been on the staff since 2009. Toledo’s defense was terrific last season as they only gave up 20.8 points per game. But the Rockets only return 4 starters on that side of the ball, so regression is almost a certainty in 2016.
Season win total pick: Under 7.5
Western Michigan Broncos (2015: 8-5 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Odds to win conference: +295
Season win total: 8.5
Why bet the Broncos: The Broncos haven’t won a conference title since 1988, but the door is wide open for Western Michigan in 2016. Western’s offense will once again be carried by running backs Jarvion Franklin and Jamauri Bogan. QB Zach Terrell will be the best passing quarterback in the MAC. He finished third in passing last season in the MAC with 3,510 yards and 29 touchdowns.
Why not bet the Broncos: Western Michigan’s defense regressed last season despite returning 7 starters from a unit that only gave up 24.9 points per game the season before. Now with only 5 starters returning in 2016, the Broncos’ defense must improve or this season will be a major disappointment in Kalamazoo.
Season win total pick: Over 8.5Comment
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Independents college football betting preview: Can Kizer put Notre Dame in playoff conversation?
DeShone Kizer and Notre Dame should be favored in every game leading up to their season finale at USC.
We are getting closer to the kickoff of a new college football season and we have Will Rogers breaking down the Independent teams, which of course starts with the Golden Domers. Notre Dame is returning just nine starters from last year's team, but doesn't lack for experience and wants to be in the playoff conversation.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2015: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: N/A
Season Win Total: 9.5
Why to bet the Irish: Brian Kelly did one of his best coaching jobs last year, as despite numerous key injuries, Notre Dame was in the hunt for a playoff berth all the way until its 38-36 loss at Stanford on Nov. 28. QB DeShone Kizer rescued Notre Dame’s 2015 season with a last-second game-winning TD pass in the team's second game of the year at Virginia and went on to have a much better season than anyone expected, throwing for 2884 yards (21 TDs) and rushing for 520 yards (10 TDs). He’ll only get better as a sophomore. This year’s team returns a modest nine starters but doesn’t lack for experience, due to last year’s many injuries.
Why not to bet the Irish: Bottom line is just nine starters return and that’s never great. While QB Kizer figures to improve, he’ll really miss WR Fuller, who caught 62 passes with a 20.3 average and 14 TDs. ND’s top returning receiver had just 28 catches in 2015. Kelly seems to have his offense figured out at South Bend but the team’s defense remains a question mark. Improvements were made in 2015, as after allowing just over 400 YPG and 29.2 PPG in 2014, ND allowed cut five point off its scoring defense (down to 24.1 per). Another similar drop is likely asking too much with just five starters back.
Season Win Total Bet: Over 9.5. Notre Dame plays just three true road games in 2016, getting neutral-site games with Syracuse in New Jersey, Navy in Jacksonville and Army in San Antonio. A check of the power ratings reveals that the Irish will more than likely be favored in every game until their season-ender Nov. 26th at USC. If last year’s injury-plagued team could reach 10 wins, this year’s team should do at least as well.
BYU Cougars (2015: 9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: N/A
Season Win Total: 8.0
Why to bet the Cougars: BYU owns two quality QBs in Taysom Hill and Tanner Mangum. The return of RB Jayson Williams for his senior season (he redshirted last year) is a big plus (he had 1233 yards as a sophomore), as is the addition of Washington St. transfer Squally Canada (great name with a huge upside). The Cougars own solid play on the DL, from their LBs and in the secondary, with eight starters returning on the defensive side of the ball. BYU has been ‘bowling’ every season since 2005. Why should that change in 2016?
Why not to bet the Cougars: The Cougars face a brutally tough schedule. BYU will play six Power 5 schools plus must visit Boise St. and Cincinnati. The Cougars also open the season with former head coach Bronco Mendenhall (now at Virginia), who led them to bowl berths in each of his 11 years at the school. New head coach Salani Sitake enters his first-ever season as a head coach and faces a ‘killer’ schedule.
Season Win Total Bet: Under 8.0. BYU’s first nine games a come against six Power 5 schools plus quality Group of 5 foes like Toledo, Boise St. and Cincy. Just three of those games come at home, with four on the road and two more at neutral sites. BYU closes with home games against Southern Utah, UMass and Utah St but by then, it may be too late. Nine wins seems like a ‘bridge too far.’
Army Black Knights (2015: 2-10 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: N/A
Season Win Total: 4.5
Why to bet the Black Knights: Head coach Jeff Monken made a big name for himself at Georgia Southern and in 2016 (his third year at Army) returns 16 starters. His first recruiting class now enters its third season and it’s possible that Army may be ready for a breakout season. After all, last year’s team lost seven games by seven points or less. Getting back to Army’s defense, after allowing more than 400 yards and from 31-to-36 PPG the last three seasons, last year’s unit held opponents to 376 yards and 27.8 PPG. With nine starts back, this unit will be Army’s best in over five years.
Why not to bet the Black Knights: As always, the Black Knight will be undersized and will have matchup problems with too many of their opponents. Army’s inability to win on the road (just 1-24 SU the last last five years), makes if very difficult for this team to reach .500, something its done just once in the last 19 seasons.
Season Win Total Bet: Over 4.5. Yes, the Cadets have just one winning season in their last 19 (7-6 back in 2010) but this year’s team has a workable schedule. Army hosts two FCS schools (both at home) and four of its Group of 5 opponents finished under .500 in 2015. Army’s tired of being the outlier among service academies and this could be the year that changes.
UMass Minutemen (2015: 3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS)
Odds to win the conference: N/A
Season Win Total: 2.5
Reason to bet the Minutemen: The Minutemen will play as an Independent in 2016, after spending three seasons in the MAC. After consecutive 1-11 seasons in 2012 and 2013, UMass has posted back-to-back 3-9 years in 2014 and 2015 under head coach Mark Whipple, who is in his second go-around at the school. UMass returned 19 starters last year but the Minutemen fell way short of expectations, including three losses by less than seven points. This year’s team is much less experienced but expectations are more reasonable in 2016.
Reason not to bet the Minutemen: A return to Independent status means a much more difficult schedule. It’s hardly a bonus that UMass plays some home games at Gillette Stadium and others at McGuirk. It’s a positive that after averaging only 12.7 and 11.7 PPG in 2012 and 2013, UMass averaged 27.3 and 22.2 PPG under Whipple. However, the defense allowed 33.0 and 31.4 PPG these last two years, which won’t get the job done.
Season Win Total Bet: Over 2.5. This is a low total and while UMass plays road games (six in all) over four different time zones, finishing in Hawaii on Nov. 26, the team's home schedule offers a number of winning opportunities, including contests with FIU, Tulane and Wagner. Reaching last year’s win total let’s us cash this ticket in 2016.Comment
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