The Bum's 2016 NFL Betting Preview:

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Win Total Outlook - AFC
July 20, 2016


The 2016 NFL regular season begins on Thursday Sept. 8 and our staff has taken a look at Win Total tendencies for all 16 teams in the AFC for the past five seasons.

Be sure to check out all the results and take a look at VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson’s in-depth Schedule Analysis for each division as well.

AFC East - Schedule Analysis

2016 Non-Divisional Opponents (AFC North, NFC West)

New England (2016 Win Total per Las Vegas Westgate – 10 ½, Over -150)
Since Bill Belichick arrived in in 2000, the Patriots have won 11 games or more in 12 of the 16 seasons he's been head coach. Most would’ve expected that run of dominance to continue this fall but not having quarterback Tom Brady for the first four games certainly puts things up in the air. This year’s first-place opponents doesn’t appear as intimidating with the Texans and Broncos both boasting new faces at quarterback. However, the AFC North returns two playoff teams in Pittsburgh and Cincinnati plus Baltimore should rebound with QB Joe Flacco being healthy.

Buffalo (8, Over -110)
The Bills have seen the ‘under’ cash in their win total three of the last four seasons. It appears the oddsmakers have given up on the Rex Ryan talk, lowering the win total from 8 ½ to 8 this season. He talks a good game but he’s only won more than eight games twice in seven seasons as a head coach in the NFL. Buffalo closes the season with three of its final four games played at Ralph Wilson Stadium but three trips to the West Coast (Rams, Seahawks, Raiders) is tough for any club.

N.Y. Jets (8, Under -150)
Head coach Todd Bowles and the Jets surprised the oddsmakers last year with a 10-6 record, easily surpassing their win total of 7 ½ games. The quarterback position is still up in the air and having to play consecutive road games three times throughout the season is difficult to prepare for. New York closes the season with four divisional games in its last six, which includes a home-and-home against New England.

Miami (7, Over -110)
Once a proud franchise, the Dolphins have become an afterthought with only one posting winning season the last 10 years. They did go 8-8 in 2013 and 2014, which is an ‘over’ winner with this year’s number. Adam Gase becomes the new head coach and his reputation is on the offensive side of the ball, where the Dolphins ranked 26th in total yards last season. Miami opens the season with three of the first four on the road but they do miss Brady in Week 2.

AFC EAST WIN TOTAL RESULTS (2011-2015)

Team 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Buffalo Bills 6-10 6-10 6-10 9-7 8-8
Win Total 5.5 8 6.5 6.5 8.5
Result

Miami Dolphins 6-10 7-9 8-8 8-8 6-10
Win Total 7.5 7 8 8 9
Result

New England Patriots 13-3 12-4 12-4 12-4 12-4
Win Total 11.5 12 11 10.5 10.5
Result

New York Jets 8-8 6-10 8-8 4-12 10-6
Win Total 10 8.5 6.5 7 7.5
Result


AFC North - Schedule Analysis

2016 Non-Divisional Opponents (AFC East, NFC East)

Pittsburgh (10 ½, Over -110)
The Steelers have cashed ‘over’ tickets the last two seasons but there are higher expectations in Western Pennsylvania in 2016. Winning 11 games has only happened once in the last four years in Pittsburgh but knowing they haven’t had a losing season since 2003 provides confidence. There is a stretch in November where the Steelers play three games in 11 days and two are on the road. Closing with home games versus the Ravens and Browns could be the deciding outcomes for this wager.

Cincinnati (9 ½, Over -140)
The Bengals have exceed the expectations of the oddsmakers the last five seasons by cashing ‘over’ winners. This year Cincinnati’s number has jumped from 8 ½ to 9 ½ and the worst record the club has had with Andy Dalton was 9-7, which came in his rookie season (2011). The Bengals have gone 19-4-1 at home in the regular season over the last four years but they lose a game this season with a scheduled game set in London versus the Redskins.

Baltimore (8 ½, Under -130)
The Ravens finally threw up a clunker (5-11) last season, the first losing record under the John Harbaugh tenure. QB Joe Flacco was also lost late in the season to a knee injury and is expected to be ready this fall. Baltimore plays 15 of 16 games in the Eastern Time Zone with the outlier being a trip to Dallas in November. The Ravens do play back-to-back road games three times this season, which includes tough trips to Cincinnati and Pittsburgh in Week 16 and 17 respectively.

Cleveland (4 ½, Over -130)
Cleveland has the lowest win total in the NFL and they’ve been a great ‘under’ wager the last five years. Hue Jackson, who is familiar with this division, becomes the fourth coach in the last five years for the Browns and the early slate doesn’t set up well. Cleveland plays three of its first four on the road before hosting Tom Brady and the Patriots in his first game back from suspension. Good Luck!

AFC NORTH WIN TOTAL RESULTS (2011-2015)

Team 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Baltimore Ravens 12-4 10-6 8-8 10-6 5-11
Win Total 10.5 10 8.5 8.5 9
Result

Cincinnati Bengals 9-7 10-6 11-5 10-5-1 12-4
Win Total 5.5 8 8.5 9 8.5
Result

Cleveland Browns 4-12 5-11 4-12 7-9 3-13
Win Total 6.5 5.5 6.5 6.5 6.5
Result

Pittsburgh Steelers 12-4 8-8 8-8 11-5 10-6
Win Total 10.5 10 9 8.5 8.5
Result


AFC South - Schedule Analysis

2016 Non-Divisional Opponents (AFC West, NFC Central)

Indianapolis (9, Over -120) The Colts have seen their win total go from 5 ½ in 2012 up to 10 ½ wins last season. The ‘over’ went 3-0 in the first three seasons with QB Andrew Luck at the helm but came back to earth with an 8-8 last fall in an injury riddled season. Knowing Indianapolis has gone 20-4 in the division the last four years, a 5-1 or 6-0 record seems doable again in 2016. Getting five more wins could be tough knowing the Colts visit the Broncos, Packers, Vikings and Raiders.

Houston (8 ½, Under -120) The Texans have posted a pair of 9-7 records in their first two years under head coach Bill O’Brien and that mark is expected again this season. Achieving a 9-7 record won’t come easy in the Lone Star State especially with first-place games versus the Patriots (No Brady) and Bengals on tap. Houston has gone 10-6 at home under O’Brien and he might need his team to go 8-0 this season knowing four road games this season are against playoff teams. Houston also meets a surging Oakland team in Mexico City in Week 11 as part of the league’s international series.

Jacksonville (7 ½, Over -120) The Jaguars have seen their win total go ‘under’ each of the last five seasons yet this year’s number has ballooned to 7 ½ victories. It’s certainly hard to expect the ‘over’ to come in considering Jacksonville has won eight games once in the last eight years and they’re coming off a 5-11 season with four of the wins coming by six points or less. Jacksonville has gone 4-20 the last four seasons on the road and this year’s non-divisional home slate is arguably the toughest in the NFL with the Packers, Ravens, Raiders, Broncos and Vikings visiting the Sunshine State. The Jaguars also lose a home game in London again as they play the Colts in Week 4 overseas.

Tennessee (5 ½, Over -160) It’s rare to see a team double their win total from the previous season but the oddsmakers are buying the Titans. Tennessee went 3-13 last season and six of the losses came by six points or less and four by three or less. Marcus Mariota missed four games but he went 3-9 in 12 starts during his rookie season and should only get better with a running game, which was beefed up. Head coach Mike Mularkey took over the coaching duties from Ken Whisenhunt last season and while six wins doesn’t seem like much, bettors should be aware that he’s gone 5-11 (2005 Bills) and 2-14 (2012 Jaguars) in his last two head coaching stints.


AFC SOUTH WIN TOTAL RESULTS (2011-2015)

Team 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Houston Texans 10-6 12-4 2-14 9-7 9-7
Win Total 9 10 10.5 7.5 8.5
Result

Indianapolis Colts 2-14 11-5 11-5 11-5 8-8
Win Total 9.5 5.5 8.5 9.5 10.5
Result

Jacksonville Jaguars 5-11 2-14 4-12 3-13 5-11
Win Total 6.5 5.5 5 5 5.5
Result

Tennessee Titans 9-7 6-10 7-9 2-14 3-13
Win Total 6.5 7 6.5 7 5.5
Result


AFC West - Schedule Analysis

2016 Non-Divisional Opponents (AFC South, NFC South)

Kansas City (9 ½, Over -130)
The Chiefs started 2015 with a 1-5 record before winning their final10 games, which helped the team go ‘over’ their win total (8 ½) for the third straight season. This year’s number is boosted up a bit and another slow start would hamper their ‘over’ run. Matching up with the South divisions doesn’t hurt but they face the top teams (Panthers, Falcons, Colts, Texans) from those groups on the road. Knowing Andy Reid has posted winning marks in 12 of his 17 head coaching seasons makes you believe you have a chance at this number to go high.

Denver (9 ½, Under -150)
Despite being one of the best win total ‘over’ teams in the NFL the last five seasons, oddsmakers are selling Denver in 2016. The Broncos won 12 games behind the league’s best defense but a shaky quarterback situation won’t help an offense that was lacking a punch to begin with. A lot of Denver’s success came versus the AFC West. They went 21-3 versus divisional opponents the last four regular seasons with signal callers Peyton Manning and Brock Oswelier, who are both long gone.

Oakland (8 ½, Over -110)
After winning a combined 11 games from 2012 through 2014, the Raiders finished last season with a 7-9 record and cashed ‘over’ tickets (5 ½). Outside of defeating the Broncos (15-12) on the road, the Raiders didn’t have an impressive win on their resume. There’s no doubt that Oakland has a solid young nucleus and this year’s win total appears to be based on their matchups vs. the AFC & NFC South clubs. The Raiders only play two playoff teams on the road (Chiefs, Broncos) and have a mid-season stretch of hosting three games at home and another in Mexico City, which has a strong Oakland fan base.

San Diego (7, Over -140)
The Chargers posted their worst record (4-12) in the last 12 years in 2015. During that same span, San Diego has never had less than seven wins which could have bettors leaning ‘over’ this season. Head coach Mike McCoy went 9-7 in each of his first two seasons and the return of offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt should help an offense that declined since he left after 2013. The bye week comes late for the Chargers and four of the final five are against non-playoff teams from last season, three being played at home.

AFC WEST WIN TOTAL RESULTS (2011-2015)

Team 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Denver Broncos 8-8 13-3 13-3 12-4 12-4
Win Total 6 8.5 11.5 11.5 10
Result

Kansas City Chiefs 7-9 2-14 11-5 9-7 11-5
Win Total 7.5 8 7.5 8 8.5
Result

Oakland Raiders 8-8 4-12 4-12 3-13 7-9
Win Total 6.5 7 5.5 5 5.5
Result

San Diego Chargers 8-8 7-9 9-7 9-7 4-12
Win Total 11 9 7.5 8 8
Result

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Season Win Total Predictions

July 24, 2016

By Mark Franco

Lions - Under 7 (-105 at Stations)

Losing your best player to early retirement in WR Calvin Johnson does not bode well for a team that had its problems on offense the last couple of years. The Lions offense ranked 20th last season and their running game was almost not existence ranked dead last in the league. Third-down conversion percentage for the Lions offense was just 37% in the NFL a year ago.

The Lions have a tough road schedule with games at the Colts, Packers, Texans, Vikings, Saints, Giants and Cowboys. I don’t see them getting to 7 wins on the season.

Texans - Over 8 ½ (-105 at South Point)

The new-look Houston Texans have added pieces on offense starting with QB Brock Osweiler. The Texans drafted Wide receiver Will Fuller, Center Nick Martin, Wide receiver Braxton Miller and Running back Tyler Ervin with their first four picks and I expect all of them to have an impact on the offense.

The Texans road schedule is manageable with their only tough games being at New England with no Tom Brady in week 3, at the Vikings, at the Broncos and at the Packers.

Raiders - Over 8 ½ (-115 at South Point)

The Silver and Black and back after finally not having a losing season last year at 8-8. I see no reason why they can’t at least get one more win this year. Head Coach Jack Del Rio has made a big impact on this team and with the weapons they have on offense I’m looking for the Raider to even have a shot at the playoffs.

They have very winnable out of division road games at the Titans, Ravens, Jaguars, and Bucs. Nine wins seems attainable.

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AFC South Outlook
August 1, 2016

West It is a bit hard to believe that the Colts from the AFC South opened the 2015 season as the AFC favorites. This season, the expectations are grounded for the division as a whole with relatively difficult schedules outside of the division and 9-7 being enough to take the title in 2015. Here is a look at some of the staff changes and key position battles for the AFC South for 2016.

HOUSTON TEXANS
Over/Under Win Total: 8.5 (-130 OVER, EVEN UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC South: 2/1
Odds to win the AFC: 18/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 33/1

STAFF CHANGES: Despite winning the AFC South last season, the Texans made a few coaching moves, firing Bob Ligashesky as special teams coordinator, a holdover from Gary Kubiak’s staff. Wide receivers coach Stan Hixton followed Bill O’Brien from Penn State, but was released after last season. Mike Vrabel was allegedly offered the defensive coordinator position in San Francisco, but he opted to stay put as linebackers coach while Sean Ryan and Anthony Weaver are new position coach hires. Larry Izzo is the new special teams coordinator, having spent the last five seasons with the Giants.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Running Back
Arian Foster is no longer with the Texans as the incredibly productive but often-injured running back has moved on and signed with Miami. Ironically, Houston is replacing Foster with Lamar Miller, who was the main running back for the Dolphins last season. Alfred Blue had several strong fill-in performances last season, but he may wind up being a career back-up. Seeking more of a change-of-pace back, the Texans will hope to see improvement from Jonathan Grimes who had 282 yards last season but isn’t a lock to make the roster. A more dynamic option might be rookie Tyler Ervin, who was a fourth round pick out of San Jose State, while Akeem Hunt will also see some preseason snaps after bouncing between three teams as an undrafted rookie out of Purdue last season.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: There should be a true competition in the kicking game for the Texans as while Nick Novak was adequate last season, rookie Ka’imi Fairbairn was a prolific college kicker for UCLA and figures to have greater range. If J.J. Watt misses time, defensive end will be a position with questions as Jared Crick signed with Denver and there is an open starting spot opposite Watt. Christian Covington may be moved from the interior while Jeoffrey Pagan remains on the roster. Devon Still and Brandon Dunn are also new additions that will compete for a rotation spot.

SEASON OUTLOOK: Winning the AFC South was a great accomplishment for the Texans last season in Bill O’Brien’s second season, but a 30-0 home loss in the playoffs was a sour finish to the season. The success of Houston will hinge on new quarterback Brock Osweiler, the latest attempt to solidify the position that the franchise has struggled to find stability at in its entire existence. Houston was just 9-7 last season and in the AFC South, that might again be enough for a division title with a grouping that figures to be a bit more balanced with improvement from Tennessee and Jacksonville very possible. The draws of the NFC North and AFC West will make for a tough overall schedule for Houston and as has been the case in recent years the matchups with the Colts may decide the division.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Over/Under Win Total: 9.5 (EVEN OVER, -130 UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC South: 7/5
Odds to win the AFC: 12/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 28/1

STAFF CHANGES: There was some speculation that Chuck Pagano could be fired after the Colts opened the season as the AFC favorites last year and finished just 8-8. Big changes were made on defense as Greg Manusky was fired as defensive coordinator along with several position coaches. Recall that in the middle of the season offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton was fired, as under Pagano the 2016 season will start with almost a completely new set of assistants. Former Ravens assistant Ted Monachino is the new defensive coordinator and will run Pagano’s scheme. Higher profile assistants are joining the team on offense with former Dolphins head coach Joe Philbin coaching the offensive line and Brian Schottenheimer coaching the quarterbacks while former Browns head coach Rob Chudzinski the new offensive coordinator.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Right Guard
Hugh Thornton started at right guard last season and injuries have plagued him heading into his fourth season with the team. Thornton will have an opportunity to retain the starting spot and likely get a hefty contract after the season or he could fall out of favor. Denzelle Good played at tackle last season, but was impressive in his rookie season and the team sees him as a potential replacement at guard, though an injury has kept him out of action in the early summer. Jonotthan Harrison has been the team’s center in recent years, but Ryan Kelly is taking that spot leaving Harrison as a potential replacement at guard. Joe Haeg was a fifth round pick as a tackle but has mostly been working as a guard since joining the Colts.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: Jerrell Freeman signed with the Bears to leave an opening at inside linebacker. Nate Irving was next in line on the roster last season, starting two games while starting significantly for the Broncos in 2014. Sio Moore was acquired just before the start of last season, but he did not earn consistent playing time and figures to be in a clear competition for the spot. Antonio Morrison was picked up in the fourth round of the draft, but an injury has kept him from realistically joining the competition at this point. The defensive line and receiver depth will also have some sorting out to do for the Colts, who will have five preseason games as they are in the early August Hall of Fame game to open the season.

SEASON OUTLOOK: While the Colts were just 8-8 last season, the expectations will be in line with the previous three 11-5 seasons under Andrew Luck and Pagano. Owner Jim Irsay is known for the potential for bold decisions and if the season does not start out strong, changes could be made. Indianapolis has a favorable early slate with many of the toughest games in the second half as that scenario doesn’t seem likely, but Luck has to prove he is healthy and ready to take a leap after the step backwards last season while being injured. The South remains one of the weaker divisions in the league as it won’t likely take a great season to win the division, but after an AFC Championship appearance two seasons ago the bar is set high for a team that had a lot of problems last season and turned over most of the staff.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Over/Under Win Total: 7.5 (-125 OVER, -105 UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC South: 3/1
Odds to win the AFC: 22/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 40/1

STAFF CHANGES: Gus Bradley is just 12-36 in three seasons leading the Jaguars, but ownership has been patient although this figures to be a critical season for the team to show improvement even with Bradley getting an extension through 2017. Jacksonville did make a major change on defense with Todd Wash replacing Bob Babich as the defensive coordinator. Wash has been with the team all three seasons under Bradley as the defensive line coach as it won’t likely be a major transition. There were some other minor moves for in assistant roles for position coaches, but much of the staff from last season is in place.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Left Tackle
The key position on the offensive line will be under the microscope for the Jaguars in August. Luke Joeckel was the #2 pick in the 2013 draft, but he missed most of that season with an ankle injury. His 2014 season was forgettable and while he made 14 starts at left tackle last season, his starting spot may be in jeopardy. Kelvin Beachum is the best candidate to unseat as a free agent signing from the Steelers, working his way from being a seventh round pick out of SMU into 39 starts the past three years. Veteran Mackenzy Bernadeau was also picked up by the Jaguars with eight years of experience and versatility at the line positions.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: T.J. Yeldon had a solid rookie season and figures to be coveted fantasy running back this summer, but veteran Chris Ivory might still wind up as the starter based on his experience and red zone success. Both will play significantly but Yeldon may not get the touches many will expect in his second season. The Jacksonville offense also features a pair of college wide receiver stars in play for the slot position with Marqise Lee and Rashad Greene in a head-to-head battle. Lee has been hurt for portions of his first two seasons and while Greene made a few dynamic plays in his rookie season he ultimately had just 19 receptions plus a punt return touchdown. The defensive line rotation and the strong safety positions also have some question marks at this point for the Jaguars.

SEASON OUTLOOK: On paper, Jacksonville is starting to look like a team that can seriously compete in the AFC South despite a long stretch of losing for the franchise. Blake Bortles will be in his third season as the starting quarterback and there is a lot of young talent on both sides of the ball. Expectations are definitely elevated and while Jacksonville likely doesn’t need a playoff run for 2016 to be considered a success, getting close to .500 is reasonable goal and the opportunity should be there for this squad.

TENNESSEE TITANS
Over/Under Win Total: 5.5 (-155 OVER, +125 UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC South: 10/1
Odds to win the AFC: 40/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 66/1

STAFF CHANGES: Ken Whisenhunt was fired mid-season and his replacement Mike Mularkey had the interim tag removed as he will lead the Titans in 2016, his third stint as a head coach as he coached the Bills for two seasons in 2004 and 2005 as well as the Jaguars in 2012. His career record is just 18-39 and he promoted long-time Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau to that position moving forward as well as retaining his distinction as assistant head coach. Terry Robiskie was twice an interim head coach before settling in as a wide receivers coach the last decade, mainly with the Falcons. Robiskie will be the offensive coordinator for the Titans this season while there is a change at special teams as well with Bobby April taking over having held that role for the Rams, Bills, Eagles, Raiders, and Jets the last 15 years.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Running Back
DeMarco Murray is presumably the starter after the Titans struck a deal to acquire the 2014 season’s leading rusher. Alabama star Derrick Henry was also the team’s second round pick and the Heisman Trophy winner will certainly be watched closely. Bishop Sankey was the team’s second round pick in 2014 and while he has underwhelmed with just 762 yards in two seasons, he still has some potential and is likely more comfortable in the passing game. David Cobb was also a prolific college rusher for Minnesota and while he was injured much of his rookie season, he did have some positive production late in the season when given an opportunity. Taking pressure of Marcus Mariota will be critical for Tennessee as the team will need to get strong running back play to have success.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: The Titans have several veterans with experience at wide receiver, but the pecking order isn’t particularly clear. Harry Douglas, Kendall Wright, and Justin Hunter figure to be the top three receivers but Dorial Green-Beckham had a productive rookie season and Rishard Matthews had 43 catches for the Dolphins last season. It is a deep group but perhaps lacking a standout leader. Brian Orakpo leads the linebacker corps but rookie Kevin Dodd joins Davis Bass and Derrick Morgan on the depth chart in what will be a key spot for the defense.

SEASON OUTLOOK: The Titans are projected to finish at the bottom of the AFC after finishing just 3-13 last season, but the offense had a handful of big games last season and improvement on the defense seems likely. The AFC South would be one the most likely divisions to produce an unexpected winner and the Titans lost six games by a touchdown or less last season despite all the changes and injuries. Tennessee is probably a year or two away from a serious push for the division, but the Titans are also a candidate to surprise especially with a pretty favorable first half schedule.

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NFC South Outlook
July 30, 2016


An NFC South team has been the NFC’s top seed in four of the last seven seasons and the possibility for a strong season from this group is there in 2016. Here is a look at preseason storylines and personnel changes for the NFC South, led by the 2015 NFC Champion Carolina Panthers.

ATLANTA FALCONS
Over/Under Win Total: 7.5 (+105 OVER, -135 UNDER)
Odds to win the NFC South: 5/1
Odds to win the NFC: 28/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 50/1

STAFF CHANGES: With a major overhaul before the 2015 season Atlanta wound up 8-8 and only minor changes took place over the winter under Dan Quinn. Former Buccaneers head coach Raheem Morris is switching to offense for the Falcons as an assistant head coach and wide receivers coach. Former Patriots cornerback Jerome Henderson was hired to be the passing game coordinator on defense after working with Dallas in recent seasons.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Defensive End
The Falcons surprised some by not drafting a pass rusher in April and a key position battle this summer will be at defensive end. Veterans Adrian Clayborn, Vic Beasley, Malliciah Goodman, and Derrick Shelby are likely fighting for spots with Tyson Jackson likely the only lock to start after starting 28 games the past two seasons for the Falcons. In late July the Falcons also picked up Efe Obada after he was released by the Chiefs.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: There appears to be an opening for the team in nickel sets with Akramm King, Jalen Collins, and DeMarcus Van Dyke likely in a preseason battle at cornerback. Collins is suspended the first four weeks as he may be at a disadvantage. Starting with 2nd round pick Deion Jones the Falcons have three rookie linebackers in camp. Veterans Paul Worrilow, Tyler Starr, Brooks Reed, and Phillip Wheeler will need to prove they belong in the mix. The offensive line looks mostly set but depth and primary back-up assignments may still be in flux as well.

SEASON OUTLOOK: The rest of the division was overwhelmed by the Panthers last season but Atlanta was the only team to beat Carolina in the regular season. Going 8-8 with a new staff and featuring a clearly improved defense was a solid step forward for the Falcons but Atlanta won just once in the division and went just 4-4 at home as a once-strong home field has softened. This is a team that could go either way, making a playoff push or sinking in a division that could be tightly packed.

CAROLINA PANTHERS
Over/Under Win Total: 10.5 (-115 OVER, -115 UNDER)
Odds to win the NFC South: 1/2
Odds to win the NFC: 6/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 12/1

STAFF CHANGES: A lot of Super Bowl teams lose assistants but Carolina will keep most of its staff in place under Ron Rivera. Mike Shula has been the offensive coordinator since 2013 while Sean McDermott has led the defense since 2011 and both are back in 2016. The scouting department had a bit of a shake-up in the summer but overall the staff remains mostly the same as in last season’s very successful campaign.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Wide Receiver
A Panthers team that made the Super Bowl will get back Kelvin Benjamin and Stephen Hill from injury to bolster the receiving corps. Corey Brown and Ted Ginn were significant contributors last season but may be battling for similar roles this season with both in contract seasons. Second-year receiver Devin Funchess could also be fighting for an expanded role in the offense as well.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: With Josh Norman gone a cornerback spot is open and it could be a serious battle this August with veteran Robert McClain joined by three rookie draft picks in Daryl Worley, James Bradberry, and Zack Sanchez as the Panthers made three consecutive picks at the position. Punter Brad Nortman signed with Jacksonville and it appears that Mike Scifres and former CFL kicker Swayze Waters will be in for a preseason battle for kicking duties.

SEASON OUTLOOK: After going 15-1 but suffering a disappointing Super Bowl loss Carolina remains one of the top threats in the NFC. A lot went right for the Panthers last season with a +192 point differential and some big breaks with defensive touchdowns as repeating a 15-1 mark would be a great challenge but a big fall in the standings would be as much of a surprise.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Over/Under Win Total: 7 (-105 OVER, -125 UNDER)
Odds to win the NFC South: 6/1
Odds to win the NFC: 33/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 66/1

STAFF CHANGES: Dan Campbell was the interim head coach for the Dolphins last season and he was brought on to the Saints staff as an assistant, focusing on tight ends. Joe Lombardi was fired mid-season by the Lions as offensive coordinator and he was re-hired by the Saints as quarterbacks coach, a role he held from 2009-2013 with the team. Former Raiders head coach Dennis Allen is returning as the defensive coordinator after taking over late last season after Rob Ryan was fired. Aaron Glenn is the new secondary coach while Dan Roushar is the offensive line coach.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Defensive End
The Saints have a strong pass rusher in Cameron Jordan but finding a complement on the other side looks like a major priority this summer. Hau’oli Kikaha was the favorite to take the spot but he may be lost for the season. Bobby Richardson was a successful undrafted free agent pick-up last season and he has some versatility on the line. Kasim Edebali, Obum Gwacham, and Davis Tull will be in the mix for the starting spot with Edebali posting five sacks last season as the most proven player. Sheldon Rankins was also the team’s #1 pick out of Louisville but he looks likely to be slotted in as an interior player in his first season.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: Slot cornerback will be a key position in NFC South and Damian Swann and P.J. Williams figure to be fighting for a lead role, although the starting spots of Delvin Breaux and Keenan Lewis are not set in stone. Wide Receiver depth looks limited for the Saints behind Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead, and rookie 2nd round pick Michael Thomas. Brandon Coleman will get the first look after taking over for Marques Colston last season but the team also likes R.J. Harris to compete for a spot. Kai Forbath and Connor Barth will have a kicking battle as well and the offensive line has some question marks in the guard rotation.

SEASON OUTLOOK: The Saints are still handcuffed by the contract of Drew Brees with a monster cap number this season and while negotiations to adjust that figure could happen, it seems the team will have a hard time getting something major done. New Orleans looks likely to improve defensively this season, albeit that won’t be a huge accomplishment having allowed nearly 30 points per game last season. New Orleans did win three of the final four games last season and has the offensive scheme to put up big numbers on occasion but it would be a surprise if the Saints challenge Carolina for the top spot in the South.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Over/Under Win Total: 7.5 (+110 OVER, -140 UNDER)
Odds to win the NFC South: 13/2
Odds to win the NFC: 40/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 100/1

STAFF CHANGES: The Buccaneers were impressed with the work offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter did with rookie Jameis Winston and they decided he was right to take over the team as Lovie Smith was somewhat surprisingly released after two seasons in Tampa. Koetter is the fourth head coach for the team since 2009 and he has hired former Falcons head coach Mike Smith and several of his former assistants on the defensive staff. Nate Kaczor is leading special teams and while Koetter plans to continue to call offensive plays he was able to pry Todd Monken from the college ranks to be his coordinator and wide receivers coach with Monken leading a great turnaround season at Southern Miss last year.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Wide Receiver
The Buccaneers have veteran Vincent Jackson and rising star Mike Evans to lead the receiving corps but there appears to be six other players at the position on the roster. Louis Murphy’s timetable isn’t clear yet but Kenny Bell and Russell Shepard figure to be fighting for targets. Andre Davis, Adam Humphries, and Donteea Dye all should see looks as the team looks for a slot player and a clear pecking order on the roster.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: The Buccaneers don’t have a clear #1 tight end that can cover all the roles of the position. Austin Seferian-Jenkins has had a few big games but continues to fight injuries. Luke Stocker is a great blocking player but hasn’t done much as a receiver while Cameron Brate hasn’t met the call yet. Veteran Brandon Myers was brought back in but isn’t a lock to last on the roster. 6th round pick Dan Vitale was mostly a fullback in college but he could prove to fill a variety of roles on the team and might deem one of the other tight ends unnecessary. Rounding out the defensive end rotation with free agent pick-up Robert Ayers and rookie Noah Spence will be an area to watch this summer while cornerback depth is also going to have some battles in play.

SEASON OUTLOOK: The case can be made for the Buccaneers to be a candidate for a rise to playoff contention this season. Tampa Bay was just 6-10 last season but the coaching transition should be relatively smooth and there is a great deal of young talent supporting Jameis Winston after a solid rookie season at quarterback. The early season schedule is brutally tough facing both 2015 NFC championship teams on the road plus a home date with the Super Bowl champion Broncos in the first five weeks and the Buccaneers may need to weather an early storm to have success.

[StarDust Bum]

AFC West Outlook
July 30, 2016

The AFC West will be one of the 2016 season’s most interesting and most competitive divisions. Here is a look at some of the summer storylines as the preseason approaches for the defending Super Bowl champions and three other West squads aiming for the playoffs.

DENVER BRONCOS
Over/Under Win Total: 9 (-125 OVER, -105 UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC West: 2/1
Odds to win the AFC: 8/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 18/1

STAFF CHANGES: After a Super Bowl championship season, the Denver Broncos don’t have any major staff changes to report as Gary Kubiak’s staff will be led by Rick Dennison as the offensive coordinator for the second straight season and his 26th (non-consecutive) season with the team. Veteran coach Wade Phillips is back to lead the defense as well as a coaching staff that won it all in year one will try to do it again

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Quarterback
The Broncos didn’t need spectacular quarterback play last season, but they will be a rare example of a Super Bowl champion not returning with their quarterback, the first since Trent Dilfer wasn’t re-signed by the Ravens for the 2001 season. It is assumed that Mark Sanchez will be leading the Broncos, but Trevor Siemian could be a wild card and the Broncos also drafted Paxton Lynch late in the first round. Siemian impressed the team last season as a seventh round pick and his arm strength and athleticism could keep him in the mix if Sanchez fails to take a firm hold of the spot.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: The success of the defense last season led to some departures and while the starting secondary looks locked in, there will be some battles for depth, particularly at cornerback with a casualty likely among Keyvon Webster, Tarurean Nixon, and Lorenzo Doss. Keeping Von Miller grabbed the headlines this summer for the Broncos, but the team lost Danny Trevathan to the Bears to open up a linebacker spot. Nose tackle also should feature a battle between Sylvester Williams and Darius Kilgo who both contributed last season.

SEASON OUTLOOK: Denver has some risk to be a Super Bowl champion that fails to make the playoffs the next season. Denver was the AFC’s top seed, but they weren’t far from missing the playoffs entirely heading into the final weeks last season. Five AFC teams had a superior point differential to the Broncos last season and while Peyton Manning didn’t have a great statistical season, his leadership proved pivotal in the many narrow wins the team had. Add that the competition in the West looks steep with the Raiders and Chargers likely to improve and the Chiefs still formidable, a fall for the Broncos looks possible if the defense is unable to carry the team again.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Over/Under Win Total: 9.5 (-115 OVER, -115 UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC West: 2/1
Odds to win the AFC: 12/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 28/1

STAFF CHANGES: The Chiefs made 10 coaching changes this off-season although few were headline-grabbing moves. Primary among those moves for Andy Reid’s staff was Britt Reid promoted to defensive line coach and Al Harris taking over coaching the secondary. A handful of college coaches have also been added to the staff including two former UCLA assistants.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Cornerback
The Chiefs would not pay Sean Smith a big contract and he left for division rival Oakland to open up a starting cornerback spot. It will be a young group led by Marcus Peters who had a great rookie season, but the replacement options for Smith include less proven options like Phillip Gaines and Steven Nelson. Marcus Cooper is also an option with some experience and the Chiefs addressed the position heavily in the draft picking three corners, led by KeiVarae Russell in the third round out of Notre Dame.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: Alex Smith is certainly entrenched as the starter for the Chiefs, but they lost back-up Chase Daniel, who went to Philadelphia with hopes of competing for a starting role. Daniel impressed in the preseason in three years behind Smith but never got a significant opportunity. Three young quarterbacks are on the roster with no clear leader in the battle between Tyler Bray, Aaron Murray, and rookie Kevin Hogan. Bray has the most experience and the strongest arm, but this will be a key battle that will be given time to work out in the preseason. The Chiefs also may have a battle at right guard as well as some competition with wide receiver depth.

SEASON OUTLOOK: The Chiefs went 11-5 last season while posting twice the point differential of the Broncos, but the slow start to the season left Denver with the division title and favorable playoff seed. Kansas City won a playoff game last season and the Chiefs have the pieces to be a viable AFC contender, although the AFC West looks like a difficult division. No team did better in the AFC last season with a 10-2 record in conference games and with the years continuing to add up for Alex Smith and Andy Reid, this figures to be a critical season in Kansas City to take the next step.

OAKLAND RAIDERS
Over/Under Win Total: 8.5 (-130 OVER, EVEN UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC West: 5/2
Odds to win the AFC: 12/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 25/1

STAFF CHANGES: It was a competitive first season for Jack Del Rio’s staff with the Raiders going 7-9, the best finish for the franchise since 2011. Oakland has not made the playoffs since losing the Super Bowl after the 2002 season and the staff has mostly been held together for the 2016 season. The offense under Bill Musgrave had a great start to the season before slipping late in the year while Ken Norton’s defense struggled early and came on late. This season, the team will look for more complete and consistent performances while also facing elevated expectations.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Right Tackle
After a great battle last season, Austin Howard won the spot last season as Menelik Watson was injured before the season opener. Howard was passable in 13 starts last season, but Watson figures to make a push for the starting spot again this season. The Raiders did not address the position in the draft of free agency as they fell they feel they have what they need on the roster.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: Connor Cook was picked up in the draft and he may push Matt McGloin in a battle for the backup spot at quarterback behind Derek Carr. At safety, Karl Joseph will be under a close watch as he is recovering from a knee injury, but still was deemed worthy of the team’s first round pick. Running back depth will also be of interest behind Latavius Murray with a complementary back needed to step up. Rookie DeAndre Washington out of Texas Tech will get looks while speedster Taiwan Jones is still on the roster.

SEASON OUTLOOK: The competitive 7-9 season was a step forward for the Raiders last season, but the team was once 4-3 before the offense started to struggle late in the season. Oakland did win at Denver last December, but it was an ugly 15-12 win with Brock Osweiler starting for the Broncos and Denver had nearly a 3:1 yardage edge. That was the only win vs. a playoff team for the Raiders last season and the schedule is loaded with long travel miles and few easy games in a very competitive division. The expectations are elevated and handling the added pressure of the first significant meaningful games for the franchise in a long time will be a challenge.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Over/Under Win Total: 7 (-115 OVER, -115 UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC West: 13/2
Odds to win the AFC: 33/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 66/1

STAFF CHANGES: Mike McCoy’s spot leading the Chargers was certainly a question mark after a very disappointing 2015 season. McCoy was retained and the big move is bringing back Ken Whisenhunt as the offensive coordinator. Whisenhunt had a great 2013 season with the Chargers in that role before taking the Tennessee head coaching position. John McNulty is following Whisenhunt from Tennessee as the new tight ends coach, while former Patriots offensive line coach Dave DeGuglielmo was also added to the staff although Jeff Davidson will be the new offensive line coach. Craig Aukerman was promoted to special teams coordinator and former All-Pro Chris Harris will be an assistant with the defensive backs. Former Jacksonville defensive coordinator Bob Babich was also added to coach the linebackers as there were many changes to piece together a staff in what will be a critical year for McCoy though his contract does now run through 2017.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Center
After going through five different starting centers last season, this spot is the most important of the summer for San Diego. Trevor Robinson ended the season as the team’s center but they added former Bears center Matt Slauson and drafted Max Tuerk in the third round out of USC. Former starter Chris Watt is also still on the roster and while Slauson is the presumed starter, the team added four lineman and two new offensive line coaches since last season as there is a lot to be sorted out.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: With Joey Bosa still unsigned, the defensive line has some question marks. Locked into spots should be Corey Liuget and free agent addition Brandon Mebane, but after that there will be battles in August with eight other defensive lineman on the roster, not counting Bosa. Safety is another area on defense with reasonable depth, but lacking standout proven starters. Rookie Adrian McDonald has shown a lot of promise in camp and Darrel Stuckey will likely keep a spot for his excellent special teams abilities. Depth at wide receiver and tight end should also feature some competition on offense while backup quarterback could be a true one-on-one battle between Zach Mettenberger and Kellen Clemens.

SEASON OUTLOOK: Last season, the Los Angeles cloud hung over the Chargers all season and while that prospect isn’t going away, the team should enter 2016 with a bit more stability with McCoy extended and with a team that lost nine games by eight or fewer points. Getting a few of those games to go the other way could dramatically change the season for San Diego with the Chargers featuring a defense that was formidable down the stretch last season. The offensive line should be much more stable this season and that should lead to improvement throughout the offense and a worst-to-first scenario isn’t all that unrealistic even though it is a difficult division with three other teams that expect to be playoff teams. The Chargers still look like the #4 team in the West to most, but they are a team that could surprise.

[StarDust Bum]

NFC West Outlook
August 2, 2016

NFC West The West has been one of the strongest divisions in the NFL with three of the last four NFC Super Bowl representatives from the West and a wild card out of the division each of the last four years as the division has 12 postseason wins in that four-year span. Most expect Arizona and Seattle to be serious contenders in 2015 while the NFL is finally back in Los Angeles in the return season for the Rams.

ARIZONA CARDINALS

Over/Under Win Total: 9.5 (-165 OVER, +135 UNDER)
Odds to win the NFC West: 7/5
Odds to win the NFC: 6/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 12/1

STAFF CHANGES: The Cardinals promoted James Bettcher before the 2015 season to defensive coordinator and he had a strong season replacing Todd Bowles. Head Coach Bruce Arians has retained assistants Tom Moore and Harold Goodwin to lead the offense again in 2016 as most of the staff has returned after the team lost in the NFC Championship last season.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Center
The Cardinals expect A.Q. Shipley to be the starting center but 4th round draft pick Evan Boehm has put a lot of pressure on in camp, impressing after a strong career at Missouri. Earl Watford is another versatile lineman that will get looks at center. Shipley’s job looks safe but the team will be excited to see Boehm in live game action.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: There is a lot of sorting out to do in the secondary with three starting spots potentially open at corner and safety and solid groups of players competing. There will also be special teams tests done to organize those groups. The defensive line will also be under watch for the Cardinals in the preseason.

SEASON OUTLOOK: The season ended poorly with an ugly loss to Carolina in the NFC Championship but it was a great season for the Cardinals with a 13-3 record and a dominant point differential on the season. Arizona figures to be on the short list of NFC favorites and they have a very favorable early season as the Cardinals could be the pace-setters in September and October.


LOS ANGELES RAMS

Over/Under Win Total: 7.5 (+120 OVER, -150 UNDER)
Odds to win the NFC West: 15/2
Odds to win the NFC: 33/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 66/1

STAFF CHANGES: Some expected a change after the announcement that the team was moving from St. Louis to Los Angeles but Jeff Fisher is a native to the area and played his college ball at USC, looking like a great candidate to lead the renewal of the NFL in the area despite four straight losing seasons with the Rams. Five assistants were released in January however including changes on special teams, running backs, and wide receivers positions. Rob Boras is the team’s new offensive coordinator, promoted from leading the tight ends while Gregg Williams is the defensive coordinator

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Quarterback
The Rams traded to get the #1 pick in April’s draft and selected Jared Goff out of California. He may get a chance to start right away as Nick Foles was recently released. Case Keenum has some NFL experience and looks like the main option if Goff is not deemed ready to start from Week 1. Sean Mannion is also on the roster after briefly appearing once last season in his first season out of Oregon State.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: Cory Harkey and Lance Kendricks are holdover tight ends with the departure of Jared Cook to Green Bay. The Rams also drafted both Tyler Higbee and Temarrick Hemingway as the position could turn over significantly. The Rams could be without both of last season’s starting safeties as Rodney McLeod signed with the Eagles and T.J. McDonald had an off-season incident that may leave his role in question. Kenny Britt and Brian Quick could be pushed by rookie Pharoh Cooper at wide receiver as well.

SEASON OUTLOOK: Enthusiasm will be high with the move to Los Angeles but the Rams reside in a tough division and the move will increase the travel demand significantly in a year where the Rams will also give up a home game to play in London. Los Angeles has some talented pieces on defense and at times the unit shined last season but getting consistent results from the offense has been an ongoing problem throughout Fisher’s tenure with the franchise.


SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Over/Under Win Total: 5.5 (-115 OVER, -115 UNDER)
Odds to win the NFC West: 20/1
Odds to win the NFC: 40/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 100/1

STAFF CHANGES: Chip Kelly was fired before last season ended in Philadelphia and while the Eagles were a big disappointment last season Kelly has a winning NFL record in three seasons. He inherits a challenging situation in San Francisco as Jim Tomasula was released after just one season. Kelly brought on former Lions assistant and Curtis Modkins as his offensive coordinator, a role he had with the Bills from 2010-12. Leading the defense is Jim O’Neil who was the defensive coordinator with the Browns the past two seasons. A handful of 2015 assistants were retained on the staff including former 49ers fullback Tom Rathman who has been an assistant on the team through four coaching changes.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Quarterback
The 49ers mostly had better success behind Blaine Gabbert last season, touting a much more accurate arm but lacking the dynamic ground presence of Colin Kaerpernick. Kaepernick led the 49ers to the Super Bowl just a few years ago and remains the face of the franchise but he is recovering from off-season surgery and the quarterback decision will be the biggest decision Kelly will need to make for 2016. San Francisco did pick up Jeff Driskel in the 6th round of the draft and he will get some snaps in August as well.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: Cornerback features a group with limited experience but a lot of draft picks have been used on the position in recent years as there should be suitable options. Tramaine Brock started last season and is the most established in the group while Kenneth Acker also saw some productive time last season. Jimmie Ward and Dontae Johnson will be in the mix along with three rookie draft picks led by Will Redmond from Mississippi State who was picked in the 3rd round.

SEASON OUTLOOK: Not much was expected when Chip Kelly took over the Eagles but in year one a division title was delivered, led by unheralded quarterback Nick Foles. Kelly will hope to work similar magic on a 49ers roster that has turned over significantly in recent seasons after the fallout from Jim Harbaugh’s departure two years ago. Delivering a division title with this group in year one would be a remarkable accomplishment as the West appears to have a pair of serious contenders and by most accounts the 49ers were one of the league’s worst teams last season.


SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Over/Under Win Total: 10.5 (-140 OVER, +110 UNDER)
Odds to win the NFC West: 10/11
Odds to win the NFC: 9/2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 9/1

STAFF CHANGES: Seattle made a few minor changes under Pete Carroll as he enters just his sixth season with the franchise, leading a great run of success. Kris Richard will be in his second season as defensive coordinator and Darrell Bevell remains the offensive coordinator despite annually being in the rumor mill as a potential head coaching hire elsewhere.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Offensive Line
While the retirement of Marshawn Lynch made the biggest waves the Seahawks also lost Russell Okung and J.R. Sweezy in free agency and the running game could suffer greatly. It is a young group and with the team having to pay Russell Wilson and some of the defensive stars the offensive line was not the priority. Garry Gilliam and Bradley Sowell will be in the mix at left tackle while rookie Rees Odhiambo could push Mark Glowinski at right guard. Justin Britt and Patrick Lewis also figure to have a head-to-head battle at center.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: Running back is assumed to be led by Thomas Rawls but Christine Michael is also back with the team after finding some success late last season after bouncing around with three teams. Three running backs were picked up in the draft led by C.J. Prosise in the 3rd round. A new back-up quarterback will also be on the roster for the Seahawks with free agent Jake Heaps and rookie Trevone Boykin in play for that spot but a veteran could also be signed at some point. The defense figures to remain fierce but the biggest question mark could be at linebacker on the strong side, needing to replace Bruce Irvin. Mike Morgan is a solid option but from other positions Cassius Marsh and Eric Pinkins could get a look in that role.

SEASON OUTLOOK: The Seahawks should remain on the shortlist of NFC contenders. The 2015 team was relegated to a wild card with a handful of narrow losses and with a favorable early season schedule the West could be Seattle’s to reclaim. It would be a surprise if the Seahawks didn’t return to the playoffs but the line and running game will need to hold up once the schedule stiffens in the second half. Now paying their star quarterback a real quarterback salary the Seahawks have had to pinch the numbers in other areas and that could start to show up this season.

[StarDust Bum]

2016 NFL Betting Preview: Baltimore Ravens

The Baltimore Ravens were 5-11 last season, and it was the worst season of the John Harbaugh tenure. The Ravens were very aggressive in the offseason with the additions of Mike Wallace, Benjamin Watson and Eric Weddle.

The Ravens grabbed 11 quality players in the 2016 NFL Draft, and those guys will go along with quality veterans such as Joe Flacco, Steve Smith Sr and running back Justin Forsett. The Ravens did not stay healthy a season ago, and that’s what they are hoping for this season.

Baltimore Offense in 2016
Joe Flacco just keeps on ticking as the quarterback of the Baltimore Ravens. The one guy that has pretty much been through all the emotions with the organization would be Mr. Flacco. He will turn to Steve Smith Sr, if he can finally remain healthy is his older age. The other weapons for the Ravens are Kamar Aiken, and Mike Wallace.

Justin Forsett will get the first chance at running back, with Javorius Allen behind. The tight end position is a great fight in the preseason with guys like Benjamin Watson, Dennis Pitta and Crockett Gillmore all fighting for the position.

Ravens on Defense
Dean Pees is the defensive coordinator for the Baltimore Ravens. Pees looks to lean on guys like Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil, who both have a ton of experience in the league. The Ravens also will turn to free safety LaDarius Webb, with Jimmy Smith and Eric Weddle as members of the fearsome defense.

Baltimore will have a special teams weapon this season with Keenan Reynolds, who was quite the star in college. Look for him to play in several situations for Coach Harbaugh and the Baltimore Ravens.

Ravens 2016 Schedule
The Baltimore Ravens start the 2016 season with a home game against the Buffalo Bills. That’s the lone home game in the first month, as they then head to Cleveland and Jacksonville. Following that, the Ravens start October with back to back home games against the Raiders and the Redskins, and end the month with back to back games in New York, against the Giants and Jets.

In November, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns come to town. The final two games of November for the Ravens start in Dallas, and then end just after Thanksgiving against the Cincinnati Bengals.

The final five games of the season for Baltimore start with the Miami Dolphins at home, a road trip to New England, home game against the Eagles, a road trip to Pittsburgh, and then the final game of the season for the Baltimore Ravens is on the road at the Cincinnati Bengals.

Betting on Baltimore
The Baltimore Ravens could be a trendy pick this season. With Pittsburgh as the sexy pick, and Cincinnati as a little bit of an older pick, the Ravens could be there. If you want to bet on the Baltimore Ravens, you can start wagering them with the win total.

MyBookie has placed the total win total for the Ravens at 8.5 wins. That’s third place in their own division. The Baltimore Ravens odds to win the Super Bowl are interesting. The odds to win the Super Bowl for the Baltimore Ravens come in at 32-1. There is a look at the betting odds over at MyBookie for the Baltimore Ravens, out of the AFC North.

[StarDust Bum]

2016 NFL Betting Preview: Los Angeles Rams

The first season for the Rams in Los Angeles is upon us. While the Rams left St. Louis irritating the fan base, they will have a great crowd awaiting them when they play their home games at the Coliseum. Jeff Fisher remains the head coach for the Rams, but he may have his quarterback.

Will Fisher really go with Case Keenum to start the season, or will they go with their rookie right away in Jared Goff. Goff is coming into the league from California, where he was fantastic. The Rams may have the best running back in all of football in Todd Gurley. Things will be interesting for the 2016 Los Angeles Rams.

Rams Offensively
It’s the same cast of characters for the Rams, with the exception of maybe the quarterback. Maybe. Will Case Keenum get the first chance to start, or will they go right with their rookie Jared Goff? Todd Gurley was better than many projected a season ago, winning the offensive rookie of the year award. Can Gurley get on the field for 16 games is the big question this season.

The offensive line should be better, after last season seeing Greg Robinson have a poor season, and Rodger Safford missed games. The receiving core for the Rams has added fourth round pick Pharoh Cooper to go along with Kenny Britt, Brian Quick and Tavon Austin.

Los Angeles on Defense
The Los Angeles Rams have shown flashes of greatness over the last couple seasons. This will be the third season under Gregg Williams. The Rams made some changes to their defense, letting Janoris Jenkins, Rodney McLeod, James Laurinaitis and Chris Long gone.

The Rams will look to Alec Ogletree, Robert Quinn, Michael Brockers and Aaron Donald to lead the charge. Los Angeles signed Dominqiue Easley, who was released from the New England Patriots.

Rams 2016 Schedule
The Los Angeles Rams start their 2016 season on the road at the San Francisco 49ers in a divisional rivalry. Then, the Rams get their first game in Los Angeles, as they take on the Seattle Seahawks. The Rams finish September with a road trip to Tampa Bay. Once October arrives, the Rams head out on the road at the Arizona Cardinals, before a home game with the Buffalo Bills.

The final two games in October are on the road at Detroit, and at home against the New York Giants. In November, the Rams start the month at home with the Carolina Panthers, before heading out East to take on the New York Jets. The Miami Dolphins come to town, before they go on the road to New Orleans.

The first of the final five games for the Rams are at New England, at home with Atlanta, on the road at Seattle, and then they finish at home with the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals.

Betting on Los Angeles
The Los Angeles Rams are one of those teams that if they are going to put things together and make a deep postseason run, this could be it. The first season in Los Angeles will be interesting. How can they adapt will be the biggest question mark.

The win total at MyBookie for the Los Angeles Rams indicates what they do about every season under Jeff Fisher. The Rams are listed at 7.5 wins. That’s third in the NFC West, behind the Seahawks and Cardinals, and only ahead of the San Francisco 49ers. If you are thinking about the Los Angeles Rams to do the unthinkable, and win the Super Bowl, you can grab them at 60-1 odds at MyBookie.

[StarDust Bum]

Buying the Browns
August 9, 2016

Are the Cleveland Browns really the worst team in the NFL?

If looking at odds board all along the Las Vegas strip, the answer is yes. And there's lots of recent history to support the notion.

The Browns haven't had a winning record since 2007 (10-6) and they haven't made the playoffs since losing a Wild Card game in 2002. They come off an awful 3-13 season finishing dead last in the AFC North for the fifth consecutive year.

So it's not hard to understand why the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has them listed as the longest shot to win the Super Bowl at 200/1 -- double the next longest odds -- and also the lowest season win total at 4.5 (Over -155) -- the next lowest is Tennessee and San Francisco at 5.5 victories.

The crew at the CG Technology sport book hub office inside M Resort also don't have a high rating on the 2016 version of the Browns. They posted the first 16 weeks of spreads for every team in April and the Browns weren't favored in any of them. Not even one home game. The smallest spread placed upon them is a Week 16 game where the Chargers are 2-point road favorites.

CG has the Browns as their lowest rated team, just a point worse than Tennessee who are 3.5-point favorites in a Week 6 matchup in Nashville. If going by last year's awful numbers, the rating is hard to argue against as their average score was 17-27. They couldn't stop the run or pass on defense and their offense was almost as bad.

But action for Week 1 has actually come in on the Browns.

"One of the biggest moves we've had in Week 1 has seen the Browns drop from +8.5 to +6.5 at Philadelphia," said CG Technology's VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "But I don't think those wagers on the Browns were necessarily because of bettors liking them as much as they don't like the Eagles. There's a lot of anti-Eagles sentiment with smart money. One (respected) bettor bet against the Eagles in 13 of their 16 games we have have posted. And it doesn't just stop there with weekly games.

To make the playoffs, the NO on Philly opened -170 and it's now -240 and the season win total went from 7.5 UNDER -115 to -155."

As for the Browns, Simbal said they have seen action on them to win the AFC North with the number dropping from 35/1 down to 20/1 odds, citing a lot of small action with the largest wager being $200 at 30/1. But bettors also laid -1000 for Cleveland not to make the playoffs (again) and it's now -1200 with the YES at +750.

The Westgate also has seen some action on the Browns to win the division where its odds have dropped from 35/1 down to 25/1. Pittsburgh is the 6/5 favorite, followed by last years division winner Cincinnati at 3/2 and Baltimore at 7/2. Just like CG, the action has been small, but the risk builds up quickly at large numbers like that.

Could there just be some sentimental believing in Believe-land lately with the Cavs winning a title in the city for the first time since 1964 and the first-place Indians looking at a postseason birth? Is it possible the winning vibe soaking up the city could help the initial mindset of the Browns?

One thing for sure is this years Browns have a much different look than 2015. They have a new head coach, the offensive-minded Hue Jackson, and they also got a new QB in Robert Griffin III, who was just named the starter on Monday.

Rookie first-round pick Corey Coleman out of Baylor has been impressing in camp to the point he's been listed as the starter along side converted QB Terrell Pryor who is proving to have great hands and has been a beast to cover. Griffin's Baylor teammate, WR Josh Gordon, will also be back after serving a four-game suspension to start the season. All-Pro CB Joe Haden, who only played five games last season, has been cleared to practice and will be ready for Week 1 at Philadelphia.

"I think they have a good infrastructure in place with Hue Jackson and an improved roster to be good, or at least better than expected," Simbal said.

Obviously the key is Griffin at QB. The Browns will only go as far as he can take them and the hope is that he'll be healthy enough to have a re-birth in Cleveland after being immature at times and showing a lack of leadership in Washington that helped make the decision to bench him easy. Sometimes a change of scenery is the best thing that can happen to a player and Griffin is still young and athletic enough to make special plays. In 1980 the Oakland Raiders were coming off two straight seasons of not making the playoffs and former Heisman Trophy winner Jim Plunkett led the them to a Super Bowl win when getting his chance to start again.

"Throughout the offseason program and training camp, Robert (Griffin) has shown improvement every day," Hue Jackson said in a press release Monday, "and we expect him to continue to ascend as he becomes more and more acclimated to the offensive system we will employ this season. I've been crystal clear on what we expect from Robert. He fully understands the responsibility and I feel he is ready to handle this role."

I'm looking for Griffin to be better than most are expecting and I also expect the team to get better along the way. They play six of their last nine games at home and could be vying for a playoff position, or dare I say, a division title.

I'm believing in Cleveland this season which has me thinking 9-7 is a strong possibility making all their final six home games currently posted at CG having nice value, as well as OVER 4.5 wins.

Getting +4 against the Jets in Week 8 is attractive, so is +5 against Dallas in Week 9, +8.5 against Pittsburgh in Week 11, +3.5 against the Giants in Week 12, +7.5 against Cincinnati in Week 14 and +2 against the Chargers in Week 16. They should have the most rapidly adjusted rating by Week 7 when things start to really jell.

Still, it's hard to change old habits and grasp reality sometimes. Cleveland has averaged only 4.6 wins a year the past eight seasons. I could be way off, but I'm definitely a believer this year.

[StarDust Bum]

Coaching often key to preseason success

No, we didn’t really miss much. However, the first opportunity to cash an NFL ticket was wasted, especially if you got in on fading Green Bay before the line moved to Indianapolis -3 at many spots. The combination of Scott Tolzien and Stephen Morris was going to offer the Colts a major edge in experience alone, and you have to take any advantage you can get when it comes to betting pro football’s preseason.

There’s certainly a level of tooting my own horn to the following, but it’s just to establish credibility. Over the past six NFL preseasons, the below are my ATS records at VegasInsider.com:

2010: 29-24-2 (54.7 +227)

2011: 44-35 (55.7 +550)

2012: 35-13-1 (72.9 +1992)

2013: 26-25 (51.0 -196)

2014: 27-15 (64.3 +950)

2015: 31-13-1 (70.5 +1672)

Between sides and totals, there are always going to be opportunities to take advantage of legwork that needs to be done to consistently turn a profit in the preseason.

Personnel comes first and foremost. Who is playing? How long are they going to go? Because coaches are badgered by media during these dog days of summer on a daily basis and they often have little concrete to say, most will at least be forthcoming with that information.

There are some who simply put no effort into wanting to win these games and others who seem to relish in seeing their team be successful when they’re out there between the lines and there’s someone operating a scoreboard.

Seattle’s Pete Carroll had a ridiculous nine-game winning streak that stretched from the final game of the 2011 preseason into the 2014 opener. Carroll’s Seahawks then won the next two games by a combined margin of 75-20 to make it 11-for-12. Obviously, Seattle has been one of the NFL’s best franchises throughout his tenure, but a lot of its preseason dominance can simply be tied to a desire to be their best at all times while others are content going through the motions.

Chip Kelly’s Eagles put on a show last preseason, outscoring their first three opponents by 115-53 count as they looked for a quarterback and attempted to give all the combatants, Tim Tebow included, equal opportunities to play at a faster tempo. It will be interesting to see how Kelly handles things in his first preseason with the 49ers, but there’s a QB controversy there too.

Minnesota’s Mike Zimmer won all four of his preseason contests in his first year as head coach and then went 4-0 last year before losing a fifth preseason contest the Vikings were only playing due to their appearance in the Hall of Fame game. Even though he’s downplayed the Vikes success in these exhibitions, it’s clear that how we and his staff coach them produces results.

New England's Bill Belichick has never put much emphasis on what transpires in August, but saw Deflategate interfere with his handling of Tom Brady and Jimmy Garoppolo affect last year. This year will yield more of the same now that it’s certain that Brady will be unavailable for the regular season’s first four games, which means Belichick will have to walk the line of preparing Garoppolo to start while also making sure he keeps him upright until the lights come on.

Kansas City's Andy Reid has never been big on preseason results, but fellow QB gurus turned head coaches like Sean Payton and Gary Kubiak seem to have more success than most. It’s not a quarterback thing, either. Jason Garrett has had little success with the Cowboys this time of year, while Ken Whisenhunt, now offensive coordinator in San Diego, mostly struggled in August while with Tennessee and Arizona.

Although we’ve most talked coaches, that’s not the end-all, be-all with what you need to know to take advantage of a time where spreads aren’t bloated and uncertainly prevails due to playing time concerns involved with giving everyone a fair look.

There’s definitely a level of nuance to it, but anyone who tells you that you can’t consistently bank on the NFL preseason because it’s too difficult to predict simply doesn’t know where to look. It’s too bad that overlooking the field conditions in Canton until it was too late to prevent the Hall of Fame game’s cancellation kept us from one additional chance to capitalize.

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Preseason Coaching Records
August 9, 2016

If you’re looking to make a quick score before the start of the 2016 NFL season then look no further than the coaches and their preseason tendencies.

It appears coaches like Jason Garrett, Hue Jackson and Chuck Pagano don’t appear to put much stock in exhibition play, as evidenced by their collective 13-28 SU and 13-27-1 collective ATS career marks during the preseason.

The same, however, cannot be said for Pete Carroll, John Harbaugh and Mike Zimmer who together are 53-29 SU and 53-28-1 ATS throughout the preseason.

Then there’s Mike McCarthy and Bill O’Brien, the epitomes of consistency throughout their NFL career during the preseason, sporting 20-20 and 4-4 SU, and 20-20 ATS and 4-4 ATS marks, respectively.

And if Totals (O/U) are your cup of tea, take a look at the defensive priorities of Bill O’Brien and Gus Bradley who have played 4-16 to the UNDER combined in their preseason games.

While on the other side of the coin Chip Kelly and Gary Kubiak seem more interested in fine tuning their offenses, going 33-13-2 OVER the total collectively in their exhibition games.

Please Note: O/U records are since 1999. O/U records with an asterisk (*) represent the coaches’ totals performance in preseason games since 1999 only.

All other results are as an NFL head coach throughout his career.

With that we present another PLAYBOOK exclusive, the 2016 NFL Preseason Coaches records.

Enjoy…

PRESEASON RECORDS (1999-2015)

Team-Coach SU ATS O/U

Arizona – Bruce Arians 6-6 7-4-1 6-6

Atlanta – Dan Quinn 2-2 2-2 3-1

Baltimore - John Harbaugh 20-12 19-13 17-15

Buffalo – Rex Ryan 13-15 13-15 19-9

Carolina - Ron Rivera 11-9 11-9 10-10

Chicago – John Fox 31-25 27-28-1 27-28-1

Cincinnati - Marvin Lewis 28-25 28-24-1 26-27

Cleveland – Hue Jackson 0-4 0-4 2-2

Dallas - Jason Garrett 8-13 6-14-1 8-12-1

Denver – Gary Kubiak 22-14 22-12-2 23-11-2

Detroit - Jim Caldwell 8-12 10-10 9-11

Green Bay - Mike McCarthy 20-20 20-20 26-14

Houston – Bill O’Brien 4-4 4-4 1-7

Indianapolis – Chuck Pagano 5-11 7-9 6-9

Jacksonville – Gus Bradley 4-8 6-6 3-9

Kansas City - Andy Reid* 32-36 30-34-4 39-27-2

Los Angeles - Jeff Fisher 38-42 37-41-2 38-28

Miami - Adam Gase - - -

Minnesota – Mike Zimmer 8-1 7-2 4-5

New England - Bill Belichick* 46-39 42-36-7 31-33-1

New Orleans – Sean Payton 19-18 21-16 19-15-3

New York Giants - Ben McAdoo - - -

New York Jets – Todd Bowles 3-1 3-1 2-2

Oakland – Jack Del Rio 22-18 21-17-2 22-18

Philadelphia - Doug Pederson - - -

Pittsburgh - Mike Tomlin 21-17 16-21-1 15-22-1

San Diego – Mike McCoy 5-7 7-4-1 5-7

San Francisco – Chip Kelly 7-5 7-5 10-2

Seattle - Pete Carroll* 25-16 27-13-1 17-11

Tampa Bay - Dirk Koetter - - -

Tennessee - Mike Mularkey 6-6 7-5 5-6-1

Washington - Jay Gruden 6-2 5-3 2-6

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Thursday's Preseason Tips
August 9, 2016

Redskins at Falcons (-3, 37) – 7:00 PM EST

Washington
Head Coach: Jay Gruden (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Kirk Cousins, Colt McCoy, Nate Sudfeld (Rookie)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Rick Snider

The Redskins have succeeded in the preseason in Gruden’s two seasons at the helm by winning six of eight games. Washington limited all four opponents last exhibition season to 17 points or less, while winning both of its road games at Cleveland and Baltimore. Gruden is unbeaten in two exhibition openers, while the Redskins own a 6-2 mark to the ‘under’ in their last eight preseason contests.

Atlanta
Head Coach: Dan Quinn (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Sean Renfree, Matt Simms
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: D. Orlando Ledbetter

The Falcons split their four preseason games in Quinn’s first season, as both victories came at home against the Titans and Ravens. Since 2011, Atlanta has compiled a 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS at the Georgia Dome in the preseason, while winning two straight exhibition openers since losing the first preseason game from 2011 through 2013. The Falcons last played the Redskins in the preseason back in 2004 as Washington grabbed a 24-0 shutout.

Buccaneers at Eagles (-3, 37) – 7:00 PM EST

Tampa Bay
Head Coach: Dirk Koetter (No preseason record)
Quarterback Rotation: Jameis Winston, Mike Glennon, Ryan Griffin
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Scott Smith

Tampa Bay posted a 2-2 SU/ATS record in Winston’s rookie exhibition season. The Buccaneers dropped their opener at Minnesota, 26-16 in 2015, their third straight Week 1 exhibition setback. Winston failed to throw a touchdown pass in three games, but did rush for two scores.

Philadelphia
Head Coach: Doug Pederson (No preseason record)
Quarterback Rotation: Sam Bradford, Chase Daniel, Carson Wentz (Rookie), McLeod Bethel-Thompson
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Jeff McLane

The Carson Wentz era begins in Philadelphia, although the second overall pick in May’s draft won’t be starting in the preseason opener. Chip Kelly’s final preseason with the Eagles ended with a solid 3-1 SU/ATS record, while scoring at least 36 points in all three victories. With Pederson at the helm, there is no early indication on how he will treat the preseason, but the Eagles have fared well at home in exhibition action by posting a 9-1 SU and 8-1-1 ATS since 2011 at Lincoln Financial Field.

Jaguars at Jets (-2 ½, 36 ½) – 7:30 PM EST

Jacksonville
Head Coach: Gus Bradley (4-8 SU, 6-6 ATS preseason record)
Quarterback Rotation: Blake Bortles, Chad Henne, Brandon Allen (Rookie), Max Wittek (Rookie)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Ryan O’Halloran

The Jaguars won more than one preseason game for the first time in Bradley’s three seasons with a 2-2 SU/ATS record in 2015. Jacksonville is riding a two-game winning streak in preseason openers, including a 23-21 home victory over Pittsburgh last August to barely cash as one-point favorites. The Jags have been a terrific ‘under’ team in the last two preseasons by going 7-1 to the ‘under,’ including a 4-0 mark on the road.

New York
Head Coach: Todd Bowles (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS preseason record)
Quarterback Rotation: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Geno Smith, Bryce Petty, Christian Hackenberg (Rookie)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Rich Cimini

Following a 23-3 drubbing at Detroit in Bowles’ preseason debut in 2015, the Jets won their final three exhibition contests to close at 3-1 SU/ATS. New York won both home games against the Falcons and Eagles, while also picking up a “road” win against the rival Giants at Met Life Stadium. The Jets are riding a seven-game losing streak in preseason openers with their last victory in Week 1 coming back in 2008.

Panthers at Ravens (-1 ½, 36 ½) – 7:30 PM EST

Carolina
Head Coach: Ron Rivera (11-9 SU, 11-9 ATS preseason record)
Quarterback Rotation: Cam Newton, Derek Anderson, Joe Webb
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Joe Person

The defending NFC champions started strong in the preseason prior to a 15-1 regular season by putting together a 3-1 SU/ATS mark in exhibition play. The Panthers won each of their two road contests, including the opener at Buffalo as three-point underdogs, 25-24. Carolina owns a solid 5-2 ATS record as a preseason road underdog since 2012, while sailing ‘over’ the total in four consecutive exhibition openers.

Baltimore
Head Coach: John Harbaugh (20-12 SU, 19-13 ATS preseason record)
Quarterback Rotation: Joe Flacco, Ryan Mallett, Josh Johnson, Jerrod Johnson
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Jamison Hensley

The Ravens posted a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS record in the 2014 preseason, but dropped to 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS in the 2015 preseason. Last season, Baltimore captured its exhibition opener against New Orleans, but the offense didn’t score more than 19 points in any of its final three losses. Under Harbaugh, the Ravens have won four straight preseason openers, while scoring at least 30 points or more three times.

Saints at Patriots (-3 ½, 39 ½) – 7:30 PM EST

New Orleans
Head Coach: Sean Payton (19-18 SU, 21-16 ATS preseason record)
Quarterback Rotation: Drew Brees, Luke McCown, Garrett Grayson
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Larry Holder

Since Payton took over as coach of the Saints in 2006, New Orleans never put together a winless preseason. Until 2015. The Saints slumped to an 0-4 SU/ATS mark last August, while the defense allowed at least 26 points in all four defeats. New Orleans had won four consecutive preseason openers prior to a 30-27 defeat at Baltimore last August, while the Saints are winless in their last two preseason matchups against the Patriots with the two losses coming by a combined three points.

New England
Head Coach: Bill Belichick (46-39 SU, 42-36-7 ATS preseason record)
Quarterback Rotation: Tom Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo, Jacoby Brissett
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Ben Volin

The Patriots haven’t put much stock in their last two preseason openers by scoring a combined 17 points in losses to the Redskins (’14) and Packers (’15). Brady played two series in last year’s opening loss to Green Bay, while the New England star will see action in the preseason prior to serving his four-game regular season suspension. The Patriots won all four home games from 2013-14, but dropped each of their two contests at Gillette Stadium last preseason.

Broncos at Bears (-1, 35) – 8:00 PM EST

Denver
Head Coach: Gary Kubiak (22-14 SU, 22-12-2 ATS preseason record)
Quarterback Rotation: Mark Sanchez, Trevor Siemian, Paxton Lynch (Rookie)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Cameron Wolfe

The Broncos begin their title defense in the post-Peyton Manning era with questions at the quarterback position. Defending Super Bowl champions have struggled in their first preseason game the following season, owning a 1-4 SU/ATS record the last five seasons (Giants only winner in 2012). The Broncos won each of their two preseason road games in Kubiak’s first season as coach, beating the Seahawks and Texans last August. Since 2012, Denver has won seven of its past eight exhibition contests away from the Mile High City, which includes a 6-1 ATS mark as a road underdog.

Chicago
Head Coach: John Fox (31-25 SU, 27-28-1 ATS preseason record)
Quarterback Rotation: Jay Cutler, Brian Hoyer, David Fales, Connor Shaw
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Zach Zaidman

All three of Chicago’s wins last preseason came by double-digits, including a 27-10 rout of Miami in the opener. The Bears’ defense stepped up by allowing 11 points or less three times, while the ‘under’ went 3-0-1 in Fox’s first exhibition campaign. Chicago has won six of its previous seven home exhibition games, but were blown out the last time it faced Denver in the preseason, 31-3 in Manning’s Broncos’ debut in 2012.

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NFC East Preview
August 10, 2016

Teams are listed in predicted order of finish, with 2015 striaght-up, spread, and over/under results listed...

Considering some of the dramatic year-to-year fluctuations in the history of the New York Giants (2015 SUR 6-10. PSR 9-7, O/U 10-6), bouncing back from last year’s 6-10 disappointment is nothing out of the ordinary. Bback in the ‘60s, the annual G-Men rollercoaster ride resembled that of the old “Cyclone” at Coney Island. After winning a third straight Eastern Conference title in 1963, New York sagged to 2-10-2 the following season, prompting the retirement of key vets such as Y.A. Tittle and Frank Gifford. The Giants recovered to 7-7 the next season before completely collapsing in 1966, when the defense recorded one of the worst marks in NFL history (a then-record 501 points allowed in a 14-game schedule!). By the next season, however, the G-Men were competitive again at 7-7 in ‘67, the year QB Fran Tarkenton arrived at old Yankee Stadium.

In later decades, New York would be fluctuating wildly once more, following up its initial Super Bowl title in the 1986 season for Bill Parcells by falling under .500 in the subsequent ‘87 campaign. There is precedent, then, for New York’s form to hardly bear resemblance from one year to the next.

Which is all good for Giants fans who would rather forget last season’s 6-10 mark that could have, and should have, been so much better. Five leads were lost late in fourth quarters of games, and there were eight losses by six points or fewer. Hardly the way the Tom Coughlin era deserved to end at Met Life Stadium. Yet it was time to turn the page as the G-Men have failed to reach the playoffs since their Super Bowl XLVI win over the Patriots almost five years ago in what turned out to be the last high note of the Coughlin era.

Still, the Giants didn’t exactly clean house after last season, promoting o.c. Ben McAdoo, who had imported the West Coast offense from Green Bay two years earlier, to succeed Coughlin. The move was wholeheartedly endorsed by QB Eli Manning, whose input was apparently impactful. Thus, the new slogan at Met Life is “Evolution, not Revolution” as McAdoo would only turn over about half of the staff, with QB coach Mike Sullivan now inheriting the o.c. and play-calling duties. Also, GM Jerry Reese has been retained by owners John Mara and Steve Tisch, though with a win-now edict for 2016. More than McAdoo, Reese is on the hot seat this fall.

While McAdoo’s offense needed less upgrading in the offseason, the “D” was a different matter after contributing mightily to the many blown leads while falling to the bottom of NFL total defense stats a year ago. Thus, Reese would spend over $200 million in free agency to improve the stop unit while using two of New York’s top three picks on defense in the draft.

Another on the hot seat at the Meadowlands, d.c. Steve Spagnuolo, will have several new pieces at his disposal as he, like Reese, tries to save his job this fall. Retained by McAdoo, Spagnuolo and his platoon have been fortified by pass rush specialist Olivier Vernon (via the Dolphins), DT Damon Harrison (via the Jets), and CB Janoris Jenkins (via the Rams) as well as touted rookie DBs Eli Apple (first round, Ohio State) and Darian Thompson (third round, Boise State). Along with DE Jason Pierre-Paul hopefully having recovered from the fireworks injury that blew off part of his fingers last summer, and inked to a one-year deal after offseason surgery on the injured hand, the defense appears to have at least been somewhat fortified following the injury-plagued 2015 campaign.

Though it is not lost upon many Giants backers that Spagnuolo’s platoons have not overachieved in nearly a decade, or since during his first stint as Coughlin’s d.c. (including the 2007 Super Bowl season).

The addition of Vernon and full recovery of Pierre-Paul are crucial, as Spagnuolo’s schemes work best when he can bring pressure with his four linemen. Spagnuolo’s blitz packages have often lacked bite, as was the case a year ago when they could not generate consistent pressure. If ex-UCLA DE Owa Odighizuwa can also stay healthy after an injury-plagued rookie campaign, Spagnuolo’s new-look DL should be able to bring some heat. The addition of the mountainous, 350-lb. “Snacks” Harrison as a two-down, run-stuffing tackle to fit nicely with holdover Jonathan Hankins should hold down the middle.

The inconsistencies in the pass rush were partly to blame for a pass defense that finished bottom of the pile last fall when it performed in a ghastly manner and allowed nearly 300 ypg (ouch!). Ex-Rams CB Jenkins was a big FA score at one of the corners; along with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, the G-Men should have plenty of firepower at the edges. Late signee Leon Hall, a longtime Bengal, provides more depth. Rookies Apple and Thompson also figure somewhere into the mix, with Apple likely to see early work in nickel packages as he learns to cover the slot.

The offense certainly has fewer questions after ranking 8th overall a year ago and with Eli posting his second straight big statistical season (4436 YP, 35 TDP and just 14 picks, the latter far below some past Eli mistake-filled campaigns, as well as a career-best 93.6 passer rating) in the McAdoo offense. Of course, it can be argued that wondrous third-year WR Odell Beckham, Jr. has kept Eli relevant; no one in NFL history recorded more receiving yards in his first 25 games than did Beckham, who, thru only 27 games already has 187 reception for 2755 yards and 25 TDs, many of the circus-catch variety. But the offense needs better balance and another wideout to take some pressure off of Beckham, who overheated late last season (in particular vs. the Panthers’ Josh Norman, now an opponent in the NFC East with the Redskins). It appears less likely that one-time homerun threat Victor Cruz, brought back on an incentive-laden one-year deal after a spate of injuries, will be that guy. Perhaps Oklahoma rookie Sterling Shepard, the G-Men’s second-round pick, fills that role. A return to top form by TE Larry Donnell, a key cog not long ago but slowed by neck injuries, would be a welcome development.

After rotating a 4-RB committee for much of last season, the McAdoo offense landed on Rashad Jennings as the feature back in the last month, and he responded by gaining 108 ypg in the last four, and enters 2016 as the top run option, though Shane Vereen and Orleans Darkwa and perhaps UCLA rookie Paul Perkins still figure to get some carries. Last year’s renovation project along the OL was stalled by injuries, though pieces of a potentially dominant forward wall are in place, pivoting around C Weston Richburg. Second-year ex-Florida State thumper Bobby Hart showed lots of promise as a rookie and McAdoo is hoping he can step in at either the guard or tackle spot on the right side.

As last year, we don’t expect to get much company in this projection of the Giants to win the East. Still, with Eli apparently still capable of a big year (at least with Beckham’s help), what appears to be an improved defense, and a potential spark from the new McAdoo regime, the G-Men could emerge. Remember, no team has repeated as East winner since 2004, and the Giants appear more than capable of usurping the Redskins atop the division.

At this time last year, the war drums were beating in D.C., as HC Jay Gruden looked to be another of the many short-term coaching hires that have marked the ownership regime of Dan Snyder since the late ‘90s with the Washington Redskins (2015 SUR 9-8; PSR 9-8; O/U 10-7). Lo and behold, however, collapses elsewhere in the division opened an unlikely lane on the rail for the Skins, who caught fire in December and in a stretch run reminiscent of Billy Mills in the 10,000 meter run at the 1964 Tokyo Olympics would overtake the floundering Giants and Eagles to steal the NFC East.

Still, the division was so submerged in 2015 that a mere 9-7 record was good enough to win, hardly a reminder of past East glory eras when coaching giants such as Tom Landry, Joe Gibbs, and Bill Parcells once prowled the sidelines. Last year, however, no recollections of greatness were necessary to win the division, as merely getting to .500 would have been enough to qualify for the postseason. Many suspected the Redskins were not a legitimate playoff team, which was confirmed when they were whipped at home by the Packers, who had been limping down the stretch, by a 35-18 count in the wild card round.

No matter, for the first time in a while at FedEx Field, there is some stability, with no outflow on the coaching staff and GM Scot McCloughan now firmly entrenched in his role. (Though we warn that impulsive owner Snyder is still lurking not far away.) McCloughan, however, cannot rest on his laurels, as several upgrades can be used, especially on defense for a platoon that ranked rather low both vs. the pass (25th) and run (26th) in 2015. The expected release of QB Robert Griffin III opened some salary cap room, and defense got most of the FA attention, as McCloughan jumped at the chance to add Panthers All-Pro CB Josh Norman, who surprisingly became available after the FA period began. McCloughan also brought in S David Bruton, signed away from Denver where he was also a special teams ace.

Another big personnel story, however, involved QB Kirk Cousins, who flourished as the starter in a breakout 2015. Yet McCloughan might need a bit more convincing, as Cousins was given a franchise tag (though worth almost $20 million, a huge upgrade for Cousins, who made $600K while still on his rookie contract) for 2016, asking the former Michigan State man to prove himself again before getting a long-term deal.

Cousins appears to be comfy with the situation, as he has said repeatedly that he didn’t have a problem with having to prove himself all over again and then revisiting the contract situation in the offseason, a lot easier now that he will be making $19.95 million this fall.

Still, despite the fact that Cousins put up impressive numbers (4,166 yards, 29 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, while leading the NFL with a completion percentage of 69.8), sources said the Redskins had reservations about overpaying for a player with such a limited body of work.

Meanwhile, confident in his potential and ability to only further drive up his value through strong play in a second straight season, Cousins and his agent Mike McCartney felt no pressure to settle for less than what they perceived as the fair market value for a starting quarterback.

If he can produce statistics similar to 2015 or better, Cousins positions himself for either a 20 percent raise (which is what he would earn if Washington has to use the franchise tag to keep him a second straight offseason), or more (if the sides can agree to a multi-year deal). There’s also the possibility that Cousins gets an opportunity to test free agency. But if he plays well and Washington contends for the NFC East title for a second straight season, it’s hard to imagine team brass letting Cousins walk.

Of course, if Cousins doesn’t play as well as he did last season, he could see his value drop. But given the steady improvement he made down the stretch of 2015, and the massive contracts quarterbacks have received in recent years, this gamble of passing on a long-term deal and sticking with the franchise-tag deal for 2016 proved worth the risk in the eyes of Cousins and his advisers.

McCloughan and Gruden (the o.c. at Cincinnati before taking the Washington gig in 2014) kept the offense mostly untouched in the offseason save letting RB Alfred Morris walk (to Dallas) in free agency. Gruden believes ex-Florida RB Matt Jones is prepared to handle a heavier workload as the featured back.

Still, how far Cousins can take the Skins remains a legit question, as he beat the teams he should have beaten last season, but has yet to ascend to the elite level. Some in D.C. wonder if he is bound to be the NFL version of the Bengals’ Andy Dalton. He appears to have the needed weapons around him, with vet wideouts DeSean Jackson (in another contract year) and Pierre Garcon established threats, and TE Jordan Reed was one of the breakout stars of 2015 with a team-best 87 catches and 11 TDs. A new face to watch at WR is that of TCU rookie Josh Doctson, the Skins’ first-round pick, though he began camp on the PUP list due to Achilles tendinitis and might miss the entirety of the preseason. Considering Jackson’s and Garcon’s history of injuries, getting Doctson healthy for the regular season will be an important development in August.

Meanwhile, the OL, which shifted away from zone-blocking last season under new position coach Bill Callahan, still needs to upgrade, especially with the run, though star LT Trent Williams believes the forward wall can become “Hogs 2.0,” an ode to the legendary OLs of the Gibbs era.

As mentioned, the stop unit did not have stellar stats last season, but did rank a respectable 17th in points allowed despite placing 28th overall. Now, the addition of the aforementioned Josh Norman adds a new dynamite element to the secondary which already had a top CB in Bashaud Breeland. The addition of Norman means Will Blackmon likely becomes the nickel back, a role in which he should excel. The addition of ex-Bronco Bruton at SS, and with longtime CB DeAngelo Hall having transitioned to FS, suggests the Skins might have the best secondary in the division, if not the entire NFC. More help might come from second-round pick Su’a Cravens, a hybrid LB/S from Southern Cal who figures to come in handy somewhere for d.c. Joe Barry, who will be tempted to unleash the pass rushers and blitzers more often this season with Norman making the Skins less vulnerable in single coverage.

Free agency, however, did cost Washington run-stopper deluxe DT Terrance Knighton, once of Bridgestone Tire commercial fame but now with the Patriots, potentially leaving the Skins a bit vulnerable in the middle. The move of OLB Trent Murphy to DE has been put on hold with another Achilles tendon injury to pass-rush specialist OLB Junior Galette, who missed all of last season with a torn left Achilles before tearing his right Achilles just before training camp. For the time being, Murphy moves back to OLB, where depth became an issue after the Galette injury.

Along with Murphy, Ryan Kerrigan and Preston Smith should provide QB pressure from their OLB spots, while Chris Baker has emerged as an impactful DE. There is plenty of depth along the DL, most of it power rushers, which concurrently also leaves the Skins a bit vulnerable vs. the run.

While schedule forecasting in the NFL can be tricky, it is safe to say that Washington would be advised to have some cushion heading into late November when it embarks upon a key 3-game road trip to Dallas, Arizona, and Carolina. If the Skins can get through that gauntlet relatively unscathed they should have a decent shot at a return to the playoffs, and the division might be decided by the season-ender at home vs. the Giants on New Year’s Day.

Will the real Dallas Cowboys (2015 SUR 4-12; PSR 5-11; O/U 6-10) please stand up? Are they more like the 2014 version when a whisker away from qualifying for the NFC title game? Or like a year ago in an injury-fueled collapse to the franchise’s worst record since 1-15 in 1989, the first season with Jerry Jones as the owner?

True, we can give Jones and his boys a mulligan for last season because of the myriad QB problems that began with Tony Romo limited to four games due to twice breaking his collarbone. Without Romo, the Cowboys were 1-11 SU a year ago. The cracks in the foundation, however, went deeper than injuries to Romo, key WR Dez Bryant (who played barely half of the season), and others, as the defense also leaked too much. There were off-field issues that will carry into this season, too, with LB Randy Gregory and DE Demarcus Lawrence each looking at four-game suspensions and MLB Rolando McClain docked a big ten games to start the new season due to violations of the NFL’s substance-abuse policy. (McClain is a candidate to be released, though it would cause Jones a mild cap hit of near $1 million.)

Indeed, the latter types of personnel issues continue to haunt the organization, which has had six players suspended in the last three seasons. Moreover, top draft pick RB Ezekiel Elliott from Ohio State could be looking at a domestic abuse charge that might cloud his availability. Hardly the sorts of examples that Jones and HC Jason Garrett like to preach about character and getting the right types of guys in the Cowboy locker room.

Back to the topic of mulligans, the QB issues a year ago apparently granted another of those to Garrett, whose SU record over the past five seasons is only 40-40, with a mere one playoff win. The notoriously impatient Jones, who at an earlier stage went through coaches as fast as George Steinbrenner once went through managers with the Yankees, has apparently mellowed with age and willing to give Garrett a lot more rope than with his previous mentors such as Chan Gailey and Dave Campo. Some sources believe Jones sees Garrett as something of an extension of himself and views the ex-Ivy Leaguer as his own coaching discovery, hence the patience. Many of the same sources also said that Jones was nonetheless very exasperated last fall after other teams, such as the Texans, were able to function and even make the playoffs with their backup QBs, while the Cowboys faltered sans Romo.

If the same thing happens at the QB spot this fall, however, Jones will have himself to blame for not providing proper cover to the injury-prone Romo, who hasn’t played a full season since 2012. Jones was slow on the draw in the FA market and was recently beaten to the punch for potential backup QB Nick Foles (ex-Rams) by the Chiefs. Former Boise State lefty Kellen Moore, who was only borderline serviceable late last season when he took his turn in place of Romo after Brandon Weeden and Matt Cassel had flopped, appeared to be the backup by default before he broke a leg in camp. For the moment, Jones continues to look for a veteran reliever (perhaps the Browns’ Josh McCown now that RG III has apparently won the starting job in Cleveland) while likely taking long looks at fourth-round pick Dak Prescott (Mississippi State) and ex-UTEP Jameill Showers (who played last preseason) in the exhibition slate as Romo likely gets exposed to few snaps in August.

The plan, however, is to have a healthy Romo (with a 78-49 SU record in the regular season) in the saddle this fall, but at 36 years of age and unquestionably fragile, Jones is courting disaster without proper depth at the position. Getting WR Bryant healthy, after he was effectively hurt all season despite playing in nine games, will also be key after he emerged as one of the NFL’s top targets in 2014. Without Bryant to draw double teams a year ago, the production of fellow wideouts Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley both dropped. There is always reliable TE Jason Witten, heroic again last season when catching 77 passes, but now at 34 years of age, how long he can continue to produce at that level remains a question.

It is also hoped that ex-Buckeye Elliott can revive the infantry that sagged last season after DeMarco Murray high-tailed it to Philadelphia (and subsequently Tennessee) following his huge 2014 season of nearly 1900 YR. With Murray in the fold, the Pokes ranked second in red-zone scoring in 2014; without him in 2015, they fell to 28th. Running behind what is still considered one of the top OLs in football, Elliott could post big numbers, though his off-field issues and upright running style, which could shorten his NFL shelf life considerably, are concerns. Last year’s starter Darren McFadden (elbow injury likely rendering him out for the preseason) is now being counted upon for depth, as is ex-Redskin Alfred Morris, a FA whose numbers have dropped considerably the past few seasons.

It is no secret that Jones believes Elliott, picked in the first round instead of the expected reinforcements for the defense, is a key to a quick turnaround. Which is why Elliott’s potential off-field issues have them worried in Big D.

While keeping Romo and Bryant healthy, and Elliott out of court, are immediate concerns for Jones and Garrett, at least they have reliable PK Dan Bailey, whose 90.566 % accuracy on his FG tries is an all-time NFL best.

As for the defense, plenty of questions remain entering the fall. On top of those aforementioned suspensions, CB Orlando Scandrick is recovering from a torn Achilles tendon, second-round pick LB Jaylon Smith from Notre Dame is not likely to be ready until 2017 as he continues to rehab from serious knee surgery suffered in the Fiesta Bowl vs. Ohio State, and third-round pick DT Maliek Collins (Nebraska) is recovering from a broken foot and likely won’t be ready for the start of the regular season. At the outset, DT Tyrone Crawford is likely to be moved outside to DE until the Lawrence and Gregory suspensions are complete.

The pass rush questions, exacerbated for the first month of the season by the suspensions, have not likely been solved, nor were they addressed in free agency by Jones, who seemed to think that Lawrence was the answer after his seven sacks in the final eight games of last season. But on top of his 4-game suspension, Lawrence is also returning from offseason back surgery. Moreover, key LB Sean Lee, who has had injury problems in the past but managed to play in 14 games a season ago and mostly flourished switching to the weakside in d.c. Rod Marinelli’s Tampa 2 scheme, is off of his own knee surgery in May.

While the DL is in chaos in training camp due to the injuries and suspensions, and the LB corps crosses its fingers that it has a healthy Lee in the fall, the secondary also has question marks. After Jones bypassed several cornerbacks in free agency and skipped Florida State CB Jalen Ramsey (whom many considered the proper pick at the fourth spot in the first round for Dallas) in favor of RB Elliott on draft night in Chicago, the Dallas defensive backfield has a familiar look, not necessarily a good thing, with CB Brandon Carr taking a pay cut to stay, fellow CB Morris Claiborne inked to a one-year extension. Both have been mild disappointments from past Jones-influenced drafts, not quite the playmakers once envisioned.

Though d.c. Marinelli has brought some structure to the platoon, Dallas has not had a top ten defense since 2009, and that does not figure to change much in the fall.

While Jones doesn’t want to hear this, the Cowboys’ mostly-floundering ways since the mid ‘90s can be traced to ol’ Jer himself, who has been pushing all of the personnel buttons since moving out Jimmy Johnson in an ego move following the Super Bowl XXVIII win over the Bills. Dallas has won all of three playoff games in the 20 seasons since the Super Bowl *** win over the Steelers in Tempe, and has not reached a conference title game in that span. Without adequately addressing the QB, pass rush, or secondary issues in the offseason, and spending the first-round pick on a boutique selection such as Elliott, the offseason pretty much encapsulated the last 20+ years of the Jones regime.

There are no elections for Cowboys ownership; unlike Ted Cruz, Jones cannot get voted out of office by the support base. Which has been an unfortunate fate for Dallas fans, whose last glory era came during the first term of Bill Clinton, a long time and more than two decades ago.

If you think we’ve had trouble trying to figure out what the Philadelphia Eagles (2015 SUR 7-9; PSR 7-9; O/U 8-8) have been doing in the offseason, try listening to venerable WIP radio, where the ruffled Bird fan base in the Delaware Valley has been blasting away, led in chorus by Angelo Cataldi, Howard Eskin and others.

And there was a lot to talk about after owner Jeffrey Lurie pulled the plug on the Chip Kelly regime after a penultimate-week loss to the Redskins knocked Philly from the playoff picture in late December. Shortly thereafter, defrocked GM Howie Roseman, who had lost a personnel tug-o-war with Kelly the previous year, was reinstated as personnel boss and proceeded to wipe away most of Kelly’s major roster moves (save QB Sam Bradford–more on him in a moment) in a matter of weeks, trading away RB DeMarco Murray, CB Byron Maxwell, and LB Kiko Alonso.

First-time HC Doug Pederson, the Birds’ starting QB for a very short while in 1999 at the beginning of the Donovan McNabb era, and a longtime backup QB in the league before moving to the sidelines and most recently a stint as Andy Reid’s o.c. with the Chiefs, at least knows what he is getting into with the often-delusional Birds fan base.

As for Bradford, he was the center-piece of some of the curious personnel moves by Roseman, who signed the former Heisman winner to a pricey, though shorter-term, contract extension after he stayed healthy for a full season for the first time in his pro career and set franchise records for completions (346) and completion percentage (65%) in the Kelly offense a year ago. That was before Roseman signed FA Chase Daniel, who worked in the Andy Reid/Pederson system with the Chiefs, to an expensive FA deal, ostensibly to be the backup. And all of that before trading up with the Browns for the second pick in the first round, used to take QB Carson Wentz from North Dakota State.

The plan, at least at the outset, appears for Bradford (who at one point in the spring requested a trade after the Eagles traded up for the shot at Wentz or Cal QB Jared Goff, taken first by the Rams), to keep the seat warm for Wentz, though for this season at least, Daniel would appear to be the more-likely to step into the breach should Bradford suffer a familiar injury. Most NFC East observers believe this will be Bradford’s last year with the Birds, but others believe the situation will remain fluid until at least 2017, as the timetable for Wentz, who hails from an FCS program that rarely played FBS competition, is hardly etched in granite. Stay tuned for further developments.

Meanwhile, the Birds are holding their breath that their OL can stay in tact, which was looking increasingly doubtful as preseason approached. Starting RT Lane Johnson is reportedly looking at a 10-game ban as a second-time offender of the league’s banned substance rules. At the same time, oft-injured LT Jason Peters, an eight-time Pro Bowl pick, was dealing with quad issues that were likely to keep him out of early preseason action and could jeopardize his availability in the regular season after he missed nearly 400 snaps a year ago with back and similar quad injuries.

Other changes are in store with the Pederson regime, which will junk Kelly’s high-tempo offense and zone-blocking schemes and focus more on power blocking after Chip’s offense posted progressively-worse rushing stats each of his three seasons in charge as foes got keen to the minimal number of run plays. Key FA additions were Gs Steven Wisniewski (via Jacksonville) and Brandon Brooks (via Houston) who will help shift the infantry focus to more off-guard runs. Expect more work for RB Ryan Mathews, a FA signee last season from San Diego who carried the ball just 106 times in 2015 but did gain 5.1 ypc. The slashing Mathews and still-effective scat-back Darren Sproles should be decent fits for the Pederson version of the West Coast offense.

Pederson will also adjust roles in the passing game, with Jordan Matthews likely to be used more on the outside after Kelly preferred to deploy him in the slot, from where Matthews caught 85 passes a year ago. Matthews will need some help, however, and since Pederson and Roseman are not sure second-year ex-Southern Cal star Nelson Agholor can become a proper diversion, WRs Reuben Randle (via Giants) and Chris Givens (via Ravens) were added as reinforcements in free agency. Ex-Andrew Luck Stanford target Zach Ertz should stay productive at TE after last year’s 75 catches.

The change theme continues on defense where Pederson has enlisted the well-respected former Lions HC and recent Bills d.c. Jim Schwartz to coordinate the platoon. Which needs some help after raking a poor 30th overall, including dead last vs. the rush and 28th vs. the pass, in 2015. That’s equal-opportunity bad.

Schwartz wasted no time junking the previous 3-4 preferred by predecessor Bill Davis and will reintroduce the 4-3 alignments to the Philly defense for the first time in four years. The Schwartz pet “Wide 9" will attempt to install an attack-minded identity, though the Schwartz style relies on intense pressure from four-man rushes, not extra-man pressure.

Fletcher Cox, an active DT who lined up all over the place in Davis’ 2-gap scheme, should be a load inside of the Schwartz Wide-9. Brandon Graham and Connor Barwin, who were the starting OLBs in the Davis 3-4, will move up and become DEs in the Schwartz stop unit. An x-factor will be second-year LB Jordan Hicks, who flashed plenty of upside as a rookie and will take over for DeMeco Ryans in the middle.

The questions for the Eagles are probably going to be in the secondary, where their corners like to press but are not elite athletes and were often burned deep a year ago, hastening Maxwell’s exit. Improvement from second-year ex-Utah CB Eric Rowe, who started five games last season, will be imperative for any upgrades. Nolan Carroll also showed promise at the other corner in 2015 before breaking an ankle. Ex-Ram Rodney McLeod arrived as a high-profile FA to team with holdover Malcolm Jenkins at the safety spots, but things must tighten considerably after the Birds allowed a franchise-record 36 TD passes last fall.

Given the number of changes and the fact this appears to be a potentially-awkward transition year at QB, the Eagles seem to have more questions than any team in the division. On the plus side, the Redskins looked a less-likely contender a year ago, and we know what happened last season. These days, with the league’s power base having temporarily abandoned the NFC East, we suppose anything is possible, though we aren't holding our breath for the Eagles to make the playoffs.

[StarDust Bum]

AFC Betting Outlook
August 13, 2016


AFC East

Buffalo Bills – The Bills had a rather quiet off-season after making a lot of noise heading into the 2015 season. It didn’t help a lot as Buffalo went from 9-7 in 2014 to 8-8 in 2015. Buffalo looks poised for a similar mediocre performance this season. One thing to keep in mind about the Bills is that they have been much better at home than on the road in terms of their ATS (Against-the-Spread) records the past three seasons. Buffalo has gone 16-8 ATS at home and only 9-13-2 on the road.

Miami Dolphins – The Dolphins should improve after a disappointing 6-10 record last season. Miami certainly could be a bit undervalued early on as many bettors likely felt the burn of the Dolphins last season as they compiled a 5-11 ATS record. The loss of RB Lamar Miller is significant even though Miami did have a decent draft. The Dolphins did have some significant roster turnover on defense but head coach Adam Gase is a former offensive coordinator so the Dolphins may surprise some teams early this season. With a tough early season schedule, there could be some ATS value being offered early with the Fish in 2016.

New England Patriots – The Patriots have gone 15-6-3 ATS at home the past three seasons combined while only going 8-16 ATS (33%) on the road during this same stretch. That is certainly something to be wary of as you evaluate lines this coming season. Keep in mind this could result in some over-inflated spreads on the Pats at home. Of course the Tom Brady suspension (first four games of the season) will mean we see plenty of Jimmy Garoppolo under center early this season and that will certainly have an impact on the early lines involving the Patriots. Once Brady is back, keep in mind that the Pats have enjoyed a lot of success for many years thanks to beating up on a relatively weak AFC East division. This season, the Patriots will be facing the AFC North and NFC West as part of the non-divisional action and that means some tough match-ups for the Pats. Look for value in fading the Pats, especially if the Brady early season suspension has a carry-over effect when he returns.

New York Jets – The Jets look to be in similar shape on offense this season based on losing a couple of key players but also adding some key personnel in the off-season. The defense is where there is concern as the Jets did lose a handful of starters there. Replacing that production will take time and that is why the totals may be a good place to pay attention to in terms of Jets games early this season. The offensive production should at least be on par with last season but we could see the defense slip up some and that will be especially true early this season until the jell. The Jets record is likely to see a drop-off this season but the production on offense should remain at a respectable level. Keep an eye on the early season totals in Jets games.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens – The Ravens had a solid draft that really helps their depth coming into this season. The offensive line has been bolstered and Baltimore suffered so much in the way of the “injury bug” last season that I expect a complete reversal this season. The Ravens only covered five of their 16 games last season and I expect to see a lot of value with Baltimore early this season as the markets may be slow to adjust to just how solid this team is when they aren’t bogged down with injuries. The Ravens look to be improved on both sides of the ball as they also did well in the draft on the defensive side of the ball plus the acquisition of safety Eric Weddle in free agency bolsters the secondary. Experience, talent, and some added depth through the draft combine to make the Ravens a likely team on the rise this year. Remember that Baltimore was a 10-6 team in 2014. They’ll respond after the 2015 debacle.

Cincinnati Bengals – The Bengals were a stellar ATS team in 2015 and, of course, these trends have a way of quickly reversing. The ball bounced the way of Cincinnati last year to put it mildly. While this is certainly still going to be a strong Bengals team in 2016 there will have to be some drop-off at the cashiers’ window. The loss of receiving talent – in the form of Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu – is going to affect Cincy this year. This defense looks solid again and the Bengals have gone 19-13 to the 'under' the past two seasons and there could be some value again in the 'under' department this year. A tough early season schedule is going to test the moxie of this team and I will likely look for value in going against them early this season after they covered an insane 11 of their 16 games last season.

Cleveland Browns – The Browns have some excitement with Robert Griffin III on board but of course it is tough to get too excited when you’re off of a 3-13 season and have struggled for so many years. Cleveland is unlikely to see much of a change in success level this season because their defense lost a ton of starting talent. Still, off of a season where they covered just five of their 16 games, we may see some early line value spots with the Browns. The best value however is likely to be with the totals. The defense lost so much (in terms of starters) that I expect it to be a problem and this will be especially true early on in the new season. Look for the Browns to have solid potential for being an 'over' team early this season as it takes time for the new personnel to jell on defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers – If Cincinnati does drop off a little it is likely that the Steelers will be there to gladly take their place. My only problem with the Steelers from an ATS perspective is that it could be tough to find spots where there is line value with them. They had one of the top offenses in the league last year and that tremendous production should continue this season (even without wide receiver Martavis Bryant) as they already proved last year that they could move the ball very well even when key guys like Le'Veon Bell are sidelined. On defense, the Steelers secondary should be improved but it is important to evaluate early on how some of the new talent is developing. If they struggle at the NFL level the Steelers could be in for some shootouts as the secondary must come together quickly. Better health in the running back department and a better schedule (face AFC East and NFC East this season) equates to a solid season for the Steelers but it will be a “pick your spots” situation for value as some of the lines could be inflated.

AFC South

Houston Texans – Good draft on the offensive side of the ball but how quickly will those guys be key contributors is going to be the important factor for Houston early this season. Of course the offense was the focus for Texans in the off-season and they picked up some key pieces via free agency. However, the defense did lose a few pieces and has to have some drop-off after a fantastic season last year. Houston could be a play against early on as they have some tough match-ups in the first six weeks of the season. Also, if the offense takes some time to jell with a new QB then there could be more trouble looming.

Indianapolis Colts – Strengthened the offensive line in the off-season as they want better protection for QB Andrew Luck who is hopeful of more time on the field this season! The Colts have plenty of motivation after last season was impacted by the Luck injury situation and Indianapolis dropped to 8-8 after back-to-back 11-5 seasons. The Colts defense could be standing in the way of the Colts making a run at the AFC South this season. It will depend on how well the new faces integrate because Indianapolis did lose some key cogs from last season’s defense and the defense was already a liability for the Colts last year. With the Jaguars and Titans on the way up and the Texans likely having another solid season, Indianapolis will have their hands full in this division. That statement holds true even with a healthy Luck. The D must step up and that will likely prove to again be an area of concern for the Colts.

Jacksonville Jaguars – You can look at the stats for the Jaguars offense from last season (and now add in the fact that they added RB Chris Ivory from the Jets) and there is reason to believe Jacksonville will be strong on that side of the ball again. Some changes on the offensive line could result in a little uncertainty early in the season but eventually the Jags offense should be firing on all cylinders. That means the Jaguars could definitely be on their continued upward trajectory this season as the defense looks much improved coming into this season. Held back by the D last season, this season the defense should make big strides toward improvement thanks to some key free agent pick-ups as well as some solid draft picks in the early rounds that can contribute right away. Jacksonville should be a team on your ATS watch list!

Tennessee Titans – Like Jacksonville, Tennessee is likely to be on the way up this season. The Titans have been a money-burner the past two seasons with an 8-24 ATS (25%) mark! That means value should be available playing on Tennessee early this season before many realize how much improvement there truly is with this Titans team. Tennessee’s defense, in terms of yardage allowed per game, was actually respectable last season. The problem for the Titans was on offense but they are making strides in the right direction. Tennessee made big pick-ups in the running game through both the draft and free agency. Also, QB Marcus Mariota should show improvement in his 2nd year and should face less pressure with some fortification to the offensive line for this season. On the defensive side of the ball, I like the additions the Titans have for the secondary and, though the SU record may not improve drastically this season I do expect the ATS record to improve substantially for the Titans. They should prove to be a dangerous dog this season!

AFC West

Denver Broncos – After going 12-4 each of the prior two seasons and 13-3 three years ago, the Broncos are in for quite a drop this year as I don’t expect them to reach double digits in victories. The offense was certainly not the strength for Denver last season but it quickly has gone from “middle of the pack” to “significant concern” as Peyton Manning has retired and Brock Osweiler is now in Houston. The Broncos have a “question mark” with Mark Sanchez at QB and rookie Paxton Lynch is certainly going to take time to develop. On defense the Broncos will still be solid but, even there; some drop-off is expected as they lost a couple of key starters in free agency. After going 27-19-2 ATS in regular season action the last three seasons, I expect to see some solid ATS value in going against the Broncos early and often this season.

Kansas City Chiefs – The Chiefs now “have their shot” after playing 'second-fiddle' to the Broncos in the AFC West each of the last three seasons. However, Kansas City is not without some concerns of their own. KC lost not just one, not even just two, but three starters from the offensive line in the off-season. Continuity on the offensive line is so important that this could certainly be an early-season “issue” for Kansas City. Certainly it will be something to keep an eye on early in the schedule. One thing that could help KC is a relatively favorable early season schedule but even if they get some SU wins and I expect to see some spots with ATS value in going against them. The adds they made on defense in the draft will take some time to contribute and they did lose quite a lot of depth on the defensive side of the ball. The Chiefs were plus-14 in turnovers (29-15) last year so they had some “good fortune” to say the least and that has a way of turning around from year to year! The ball is likely to bounce the “other way” this season.

Oakland Raiders – With Derek Carr at QB the Raiders are “dangerous” on offense and it often gives them that chance at “back door cover” potential. Coming into this season, with some upgrades on defense, the Raiders could jump up a little again after improving from 3-13 two seasons ago to 7-9 last year. Getting to .500 is certainly in Oakland’s sights after improving their secondary and linebacking corps through free agency and strengthening the overall depth on defense through the draft. In particular, I would look for the Raiders to improve their ATS results at home this season after a dismal 2-6 ATS showing on their home turf last year.

San Diego Chargers – The Chargers are a team that I could be looking at more in terms of value with their O/U’s than with their spreads this season. San Diego has been an 'under' team in terms of totals in recent seasons but with the offense staying solid (led by Phillip Rivers) and the defense in for a drop-off (departure of Eric Weddle and other significant starters), this team could be in for some explosive, high-scoring games. This could be particularly true early this season as there will most certainly be an “adjustment phase” on the defensive side of the ball. It is likely to be another tough season in San Diego (4-12 last year) but at least their games should be very entertaining if you like offense.