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**Udog** · 01-26-2016, 10:53 AM

NFL oddsmakers have Panthers favored for Super Bowl 50 after impressive win

Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers have opened as clear favorites for Super Bowl 50 after a 49-15 drubbing of Arizona in the NFC title game.

The Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos, both No. 1 seeds, have made it to historic Super Bowl 50. But it sure feels like that old bit on “Sesame Street,” doesn’t it?

“One of these things is not like the other. One of these things just doesn’t belong.”

Carolina, the top team all season long in the NFC, sure looked like all that and more on a Sunday that couldn’t have featured a larger dichotomy of conference championship games. One game was an absolute blowout, the other an ugly nailbiter right down to the wire.

The Panthers led No. 2 seed Arizona 17-0 by the end of the first quarter and never let off the accelerator, boatracing the Cardinals 49-15 as a 3-point home chalk in the NFC title game. Carolina is now a robust 17-1 SU, with a stout 13-5 ATS mark to go with it heading into the Super Bowl on Feb. 7 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif.

Waiting for the Panthers will be the Denver Broncos, who slogged to a 20-18 victory over No. 2 seed New England, getting the outright win as a 3-point home underdog in AFC final. After leading 17-9 at halftime and looking somewhat capable on offense behind Peyton Manning, Denver mustered just three second-half points, yet somehow managed to beat the defending Super Bowl champions.

The Pats got a late TD to make it 20-18, but the 2-point try failed, as a missed extra point early in the game came back to haunt New England big time. The Broncos, riding a defense that has been as amazing as the offense has been dismal, are 14-4 SU and 10-8 ATS.

John Lester, senior lines manager for Bookmaker.eu, set the line at Panthers -4.

“You’ve got the top-ranked defense in the league against the most dazzling offense we’ve seen in years. Hopefully, this matchup will live up to the Super Bowl 50 aura,” Lester said. “Bettors have been down on Denver all year, so we felt comfortable making Carolina a favorite higher than -3.

“It’s likely we’ll see many of the very recreational bettors backing Denver because of the Peyton Manning legacy. Everyone wants to see him ride off into the sunset.”

Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas, didn’t let Carolina’s performance sway him quite as much, opening the Panthers as 3.5-point chalk.

“I was thinking 3 at halftime of the Carolina game, but the Panthers’ play has elevated my and the bettors’ appreciation of them,” Avello said. “It’s a neutral site, and Peyton Manning is the opponent, along with the top defense, so I didn’t want to get too carried away. But the Panthers have been fast starters in their games as of late and difficult to slow down.”

Jay Kornegay, executive vice president of race and sports for the Westgate’s Superbook, said his shop got an early jump by posting a line well before the Carolina-Arizona game ended.

“We put Carolina up at -5.5, and it was quickly bet down,” Kornegay said. “We took some larger plays on Denver, and now Carolina is down to -4.”

The Wynn posted a total of 45.5, while the Superbook was at 44.5. Up next for those shops and many others: Super Bowl proposition bets.

“The line’s up, and it’s on to the props,” Avello said.

**Udog** · 01-26-2016, 10:54 AM

Sharps share best plan of attack for betting the Super Bowl 50 odds

Books moved fast to set the line Sunday night, and while four seemed to be the consensus number, savvy line shoppers could find the number a half-point lower or a half-point higher.

Super Bowl 50: Denver Broncos vs. Carolina Panthers (-4, 45)

How to navigate spread

Denver’s game plan for the Super Bowl is simple: knock Cam Newton silly by sending him to the ground 20 or more times. What, wrong game? The Broncos are likely to find a completely different opponent from the wounded group of wildebeests that the New England Patriots imitated on Sunday in the AFC Championship Game.

While Carolina’s plans are not yet completely formed, it is rumored that unlike the Patriots, the Panthers actually plan to include some offensive linemen on their active roster when the game takes place on Feb. 7 in Santa Clara, California.

Books moved fast to set the line Sunday night, and while four seemed to be the consensus number, savvy line shoppers could find the number a half-point lower or a half-point higher, depending on where they wanted to place their money. Early money was down on the Panthers by a wide margin, bettors obviously impressed by their dominating 49-15 victory over the Cardinals in which Carolina jumped out early and then played with Arizona the way a cat would play with a dead mouse.

Peyton Manning was as good as he had to be against the Patriots, but will that be good enough against a young, strong and “running against the wind” Panthers team that has the best player in the league, a real offensive line and momentum that 31 other teams can only dream about?

How to navigate total

So it comes down to this: can the Broncos turn this into a field position game in which the teams give up first downs grudgingly? Or will the Panthers strike early like they did against both the Seahawks and Cardinals, put a few scores on the board in the early going and then dare Manning to start throwing the ball?

Manning was as good as could be expected against a pretty good New England defense, but against Carolina he may be forced to do what may be impossible given his age and the wear and tear on his body – namely, bring his game to an even higher level. The Broncos sent Brady to the turf 20 times in the AFC title game. If Carolina has its act together early and can let its defensive linemen loose, it might be Manning’s turn in the barrel.

**Udog** · 01-26-2016, 10:54 AM

Six mistakes Super Bowl bettors make

Two weeks is plenty of time for football bettors to make some of these common mistakes when wagering on "The Big Game".

Betting the Big Game?

Of course you are. It’s the Super Bowl. What a stupid question.

But massive matchups like the Super Bowl breed stupidity, especially when it comes to sports bettors. It doesn’t matter if you’re a first-time gambler or a seasoned sharp: the Super Bowl can make even the most disciplined bettor lose their mind.

There’s a little less than two weeks before the Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers showdown in Santa Clara on February 7. That’s more than enough time to completely tank your Super Bowl bets. It’s also plenty of time to heed these warnings.

Here are six mistakes Super Bowl bettors can make:

You bet too early/too late

If you’ve been paying attention to the early line moves for Super Bowl 50, you’ve seen the Panthers go off at anything from -5.5 to -2.5, after kicking the snot out of the Cardinals in the NFC title game.

If you’re a Panthers backer and you didn’t get down on that small spread, you may have missed your chance. Maybe you jumped the gun and took Denver +3 and watched two free points pass you by.

First off, let those odds go, ‘cause man they’re gone. Second, breathe. Third, realize that there are two weeks of wagering to be had on this game and that 95 percent of the money doesn’t come in until the 48 hours before game time. That means movement is coming. Fourth, get an opinion and plan of attack. Know what you realistically want for a line and how much you want to pay for it.

Denver fans, you may want to grab the points on your beloved Broncos now. Books could see action on Denver and Peyton Manning’s storybook ending before it closes, so value could be shrinking as you read this. Panthers backers, you may want to wait out that movement and see if you can get this game back down to -3.5 or even a field goal before showtime.

Last year, the line jumped back and forth between the Patriots and Seahawks in the days before kickoff. That said, don’t let a solid number pass you by.

Waiting out a line move (I think that's a Bob Seger song...) that may never come could have you scrambling on Super Sunday and playing an over-juiced number or grabbing a spread you’re not crazy about.

Prop contradictions

The best plan of attack for wagering on Super Bowl props is to start with the spread and total, and then work backwards. Figure out how the game will play out. If you have Carolina to cover, then who and what will get them there.

If you like the Under, make sure your prop plays coincide with those wagers. That means taking the Under in passing props, leaning toward the Over in rushing props and having a few more “No” than “Yes” bets.

The worst thing you can do is have props that go against each other in the Super Bowl.

If you think Manning finds the Fountain of Youth passes for 300-plus yards, then don’t load up on the Over in the Broncos' rushing yard props.

Believe Cam Newton dominates on the ground? You may want to shy away from Ted Ginn’s Over on total receptions prop and jump on how many football’s Superman hands out to youngsters in the end zone.

Didn’t pay attention to prices

One of the worst rookie mistakes a new bettor can muff is not paying attention to the juice attached to each wager. And especially come Super Bowl time, when you’re not just limited to a side and total, bettors can easily overpay for props and alternative wagers.

Certain props can hold a hefty price tag, either set that way to draw action or adjusted after the betting market has had its say. Professional handicappers are always wary of high-priced moneyline favorites, setting a limit to just how much they’ll put down. Some pros won’t pay more than -150 for a bet and it may be a rule you integrate into your Super Bowl capping.

On top of some extremely juiced prop prices, books limit the amount you can wager on these alternative bets. So, throwing down $20 on a -170 prop bet is only going to net you like $12 in profit. And playing vig-heavy props can turn a winning record into a loss. Nothing stings like going 5-3 on your bets and still ending up in the red.

Halftime lines/chasing

In a game as big as the Super Bowl, bettors can panic if things aren’t going according to plan by the time they start setting up the halftime show stage. That can often lead to people chasing their first-half prop losses and going against what they so intensely handicapped for the past two weeks.

Halftime lines hold value, if you have a strong opinion. Many times, when a game didn’t play to the oddsmakers’ expectations in the first two quarters – high total had low-scoring first half or favorite underperformed – things will correct themselves in the second half.

But, when faced with the shame of a Super Bowl loss, some bettors will go against their existing bets just to have some black ink on the board. If they took the Over, and the halftime score is 10-7, they pull the trigger on the second-half Under. If they laid the favorite, and the chalk is getting beat up through two frames, then side with the underdog.

As mentioned, these abnormalities often even out and bettors can quickly wipe out a winning bet – that was perfectly handicapped – with a horrific halftime wager made in sheer panic.

Too much media

Trust your instincts when it comes to the Super Bowl line. If you’ve watched the NFL intensely each week since the preseason and haven’t missed a minute of playoff action, you already have a firm grip on the two Super Bowl teams and how things should shake down.

If your knee-jerk reaction was “Denver +4 is easy money”, then it probably is. But for the next two weeks, the media is going to break down this game and put it back together 100 times. You will second guess your wager probably just as much.

Like a promoter hyping up a title fight, the Super Bowl will be sold as the matchup of all matchups. Both sides will present excellent reasons why they’ll win. The public consensus will flip flop like fish back and forth. Sharps will be on the Panthers one day and the Broncos the next. Stat heads will throw trends and numbers at you that go all the way to the invention of the forward pass.

And in the end, what was supposed to be a tightly-contested game with a near-FG spread is a 22-0 wash at halftime. So much for all the media hype.

Stick to your guns. First instincts are usually the right ones. Don’t over-soak your brain in two weeks’ worth of media mush. Pick and choose who you listen to, or get your bets down and tune out the Big Game buzz until kickoff like avoiding Star Wars spoilers.

You sucked all the fun out of it

If you’re a fan of the Panthers or Broncos – you’ve earned the right to be a little uptight for this game. I would be if my team was playing in the Super Bowl. But for the rest of us losers, who are left to just bet on the Big Game, don’t ruin what is the final football game that matters until Week 1.

Some guys think “Big Game” equals big bets. If you’ve been stashing your nickels away for a big-ass betting bonanza on Super Bowl Sunday, then have at it – but only if it’s within your means. Nothing takes the fun out of watching the Super Bowl like wondering how you’ll pay the rent after a disastrous interception in the end zone.

And if you’re watching the game with friends or even in a sports bar around strangers, keep your rage in check. There’s no need to start dropping f-bombs and getting your Super-Cam Underoos in a bunch because you didn’t nail that coin flip bet.

Sports betting is entertainment. And there’s no bigger show that the Super Bowl. Enjoy the game, win or lose.

**Udog** · 01-26-2016, 10:55 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Sunday, February 7

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CAROLINA (17 - 1) vs. DENVER (14 - 4) - 2/7/2016, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
DENVER is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games this season.
CAROLINA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games this season.
CAROLINA is 73-48 ATS (+20.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NFL

Super Bowl

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Trend Report
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Sunday, February 7

6:30 PM
CAROLINA vs. DENVER
Carolina is 17-1 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games
Denver is 1-3-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

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**Udog** · 01-26-2016, 04:15 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Tuesday, January 26

Carolina @ Denver

Game 101-102
February 7, 2016 @ 6:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
145.314
Denver
137.712
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 7 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 4
45
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-4); Over

NFL
Short Sheet

Tuesday, January 26

Carolina vs Denver, 6:30 ET
Carolina: 7-1 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored
Denver: 80-53 OVER after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game

**Udog** · 01-28-2016, 01:31 PM

'Disrespected' Panthers could be most undervalued Super Bowl team ever

In the past 30 Super Bowls, the team with the better ATS record is 18-9-2 (66%) ATS and 19-10 (65.5%) SU, with one Super Bowl played with identical ATS marks.

One common adjective being thrown around to describe the Carolina Panthers during the Super Bowl bye week is "disrespected".

Part of this feeling stems from the fact that they opened as only 4-point favorites versus the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 50, but it also comes from earlier in the season when the Panthers seem to have surpassed all doubters.

Their record against the spread is 13-5 - the third highest percentage ATS in the league - suggesting that they did much better than all the haters expected them to do this year. Not only did they surpass all expectations, but they also finished the regular season 15- 1 SU, and are now 17-1 after a pair of easy playoff victories.

There’s only one team with an equal or higher winning percentage both ATS and straight up to appear in the Super Bowl. That team was the 1985 Chicago Bears team, which won the Super Bowl in a 46-10 bloodbath over New England. But at least the Bears were projected to win the Super Bowl by a decent amount. They were 10-point favorites - more than double what Carolina opened as.

No team with an equal or better record has been less of a favorite than the Panthers are. To be fair though, there are only two teams with an equal or better record. But even if we look at teams that had one less loss going into the Super Bowl, only one of them was less of a favorite. And that was Atlanta in the 1998 season, when it played Denver, which had the same record as the Falcons.

So what happens when you factor in who the opponent is. This year, Carolina (17-1) is playing Denver (14-4). That means that Carolina’s winning percentage is 16.67 percent higher than their opponents.

There’s only one team with a larger difference in winning percentage and who was expected to do worse, that being the 2011 New England Patriots, who actually ended up losing by four points. And among all teams with at least a 10 percent edge in winning percentage, there was only one other team who opened as less than a 4-point favorite – the 1989 Cincinnati Bengals, who were actually 7-point underdogs (and ending up covering, but still lost by four).

Of course, as mentioned before, what sets the Carolina Panther apart from some teams that have a great record is that they also have a great record against the spread – much better than the Broncos 9-8-1 record ATS.

If we look at the difference in record ATS, this proves to be a pretty significant predictor of which team covers the spread. In the past 30 Super Bowls, the team that has had the better season against the spread is 18-9-2 (66%) ATS and 19-10 (65.5%) straight up in the Big Game.

Note: the reason there are only 29 games, not 30, in the sample is that in one year both teams had the same record against the spread.

In addition, there have been 16 Super Bowls of the past 30 in which one team had a better record both straight up and against the spread. Those 16 teams managed to finish 9-6-1 (60%) ATS and 11-5 (68.75%) straight up on Super Sunday.

Judging by those numbers, Carolina might be one of the most disrespected and undervalued Super Bowl teams of all time. The Panthers record both straight up and against the spread points to them not only winning but also covering, and them being favored by only four points is a massive slight. But are their opponents, Denver, also disrespected by the betting market?

Denver, as the No. 1 seed in the AFC, was a 3-point underdog in the conference championship – if that doesn’t show some signs of disrespect, we don’t know what does. So how do teams that won as underdogs in their conference championship end up doing in the Super Bowl?

In the past 30 Super Bowls, there have been 17 teams who were underdogs in the conference championship but won. Those 17 teams went 11-5-1 ATS (68.75%) and 9-8 (52.9%) straight up in the Super Bowl. However, there have only been two home team underdogs that won in the conference finals. Those two teams (the 2000 Giants and 2008 Steelers) both ended up losing the game, although the Steelers did manage to cover.

So clearly both teams have been disrespected by the betting markets: Denver because they were projected to lose, Carolina because they were projected to win by too little. The stats seem to say that Carolina is both more disrespected and a better bet to win and cover in the Big Game, although, as shown, an argument can be made for both teams.

**Udog** · 01-28-2016, 01:35 PM

Super Bowl betting could be a nightmare decision for sportsbooks

Sharp money on Broncos +5 hasn't been able to stop the betting public from steaming the Super Bowl 50 spread to Carolina -6 at some sportsbooks.

Super Bowl 50 doesn’t kick off for another week and a half, and already sportsbooks are starting to get nervous.

After a dominating display in the NFC Championship, blowing out Arizona by 34 points, and handling Seattle with relative ease in the Divisional Round, the Carolina Panthers have made believers out of early football bettors garnering as much as 90 percent of the Super Bowl betting action at some sportsbooks.

The Panthers have moved from as low as 3-point favorites to as high as -6 against the Denver Broncos on February 7, with most markets opening Carolina -4 and dealing -5.5 as of Wednesday afternoon.

“We don’t mind a decision but not the decision to end all decisions,” Nick Bogdanovich, U.S. director of trading for William Hill sportsbooks in Nevada, tells Covers. “I always thought there would be Denver money, since I thought the number was a little high, but it looks like any Denver money is going to have to come from the professionals.”

Bogdanovich is referring to the growing Super Bowl pointspread around the sports betting industry, and sharp bettors buying back Denver as those extra points are tacked on. A few online markets have flirted with Broncos +6, in order to drum up some Denver money, and a couple Las Vegas properties have mulled over the move as well.

“It’s funny, because we has that conversation about 20 minutes ago,” Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at The Mirage in Las Vegas, tells Covers. “We have a feeling it could get up to six and we contemplated it but decided to lay off for now.”

In Stoneback’s 30 years behind the counter on the Vegas scene, he can’t recall having such a lopsided decision this early into Super Bowl betting. MGM sportsbooks opened Carolina -4 and took instant action from the sharps who pushed the line to -5, which was bet hard by the public and tacked on a half-point hook.

As for the moneyline, Stoneback was surprised by how little money was coming in on Denver to win straight up, with Super Bowl underdogs being a popular moneyline play. MGM is dealing Carolina -220/Denver +180, and some other markets have gone as high as Broncos +190.

“If you’re going to bet Denver, there’s no reason to bet right now,” he says. “See how long the line will go.”

At the Southpoint Las Vegas sportsbook, which caters to more of a local crowd than the tourists, Panthers and Over has been a popular parlay and teaser in the days since opening the Super Bowl odds. Veteran sportsbook director Bert Osborne has been busy juggling his other odds to offset that one-sided money.

“I could see us testing six and getting some quick buyback at six,” Osborne tells Covers. “We’re high right now at -5.5 (-110), and we’ve been there since (Tuesday) morning. I’m usually about a half point ahead of some of the other places, because of our local business. I’m moving the line based on my business, if it’s pushing it there.”

Osborne says his smarter action took Denver +5 and he believes they’re waiting for the six to show on the board before hitting the Broncos again. So far, at +5.5, there hasn’t been anything from wiseguys.

“They’re not going to dabble in the +5.5, they’re sitting on the sidelines waiting for that six,” he says. “They know some of the local places will test the water at six, and it will be quickly eaten up.”

It’s the same song coming from the online sportsbooks as the Super Bowl odds reach four days old. According to Peter Childs, supervisor of risk management for Sportsbook.ag, they opened Carolina -4.5 at halftime of the NFC Championship Game and outside of some sharp money on Denver at +5, the public steamed this line all the way to Panthers -6.

“I would say of the first 500 bets we wrote, 400 of them were on the Panthers,” Childs tells Covers. “While we do respect the sharp action that hit the +5 on the Broncos, the public is just overwhelmingly betting the Panthers and I really can’t blame them.”

Fellow offshore shop Bookmaker.eu, which is dealing a 5-point spread, has been overrun with Panthers plays, according to lines manager John Lester, who tells Covers that 83 percent of the current Super Bowl 50 ticket count is on the favorite while 69 percent of the handle rests on the Panthers.

Greg Sindall, of SportsInteraction.com, reports nearly identical betting patterns, with his linemakers moving Carolina from -4 to -5 after juggling the vig at 4.5, hoping to drum up Denver action. “Everybody keeps piling on Carolina so we moved out to -5,” Sindall tells Covers. “It looks like bettors are thinking that Carolina’s offense will be too much for the Broncos defense to handle.”

So what happens if people keep piling on the Panthers – could the Super Bowl spread sit six, 6.5 or even get to a touchdown by February 7? It’s unlikely sportsbooks would open themselves up to that exposure, vulnerable to a middle (betting both sides and hitting in the middle of those numbers), and they do see Denver money coming from sharps and Broncos backers alike if six hits the board.

However, there’s a lot of time between now and kickoff on Super Sunday, and any sports bettor that’s been around the Big Game will tell you anything can happen when it comes to the betting frenzy that is Super Bowl. An estimated 95 percent of the total betting handle will come in the two days – Saturday and Sunday – before the game.

“I can’t see us getting much higher than -6, but we still have 10 more days before this game kicks so you never know,” admits Childs. “If there happens to be any kind of weather on Super Bowl Sunday, this thing could get to -7 because Manning can’t throw the ball if there’s any kind of wind or a heavy rain. So we’re definitely keep our eyes on the 10-day forecast.”

As for the Super Bowl total, the number fluctuates depending on the book being offered as low as 45 and as high as 46.5.

Public money has taken the Over, as will likely be the case when tourists roll into Nevada books and log into their online accounts in the 48 hours before game time. And with some books moving up to 45.5, 46 and 46.5, sharp action has shown up on the Under in a battle between two strong defenses: Broncos ranked No. 1 and the Panthers ranked No. 6 in total yards allowed.

The Over has cashed in three straight Super Bowls and four of the last five while the betting underdog has covered in 10 of the last 14 Super Bowls. Last year, the Patriots closed as 1-point favorites and beat Seattle 28-24, playing Over the 47.5-point total.

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Super Bowl (Sunday, February 7)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Super Bowl (Sunday, February 7)

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