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**Udog** · 01-19-2016, 02:24 PM

Patriots, Panthers open faves as Conference Championship odds hit board

Tom Brady and the Patriots opened as 3-point favorites against Peyton Manning and the Broncos, despite being on the road.

Well the NFL got the AFC Championship matchup it wanted as Peyton Manning and Tom Brady will meet one more time.

But what is interesting about this matchup from a betting perspective, is the fact the No. 2 seeded Patriots have opened as 3-point road favorites against the No. 1 seeded Broncos. The total opened at 44.5. This is a case of Manning clearly being on the decline and Brady looking like the same old Brady.

Brady was his usual self this season, throwing for 4,770 yards, with 36 touchdowns to just seven interceptions, leading the Patriots to a 12-4 record straight up and 7-7-2 against the spread.

Meanwhile Manning, who made his first start since Nov. 15 after battling a foot injury in the second half of the year, passed for just 2,249 yards with nine touchdowns to 17 interceptions. The Broncos were 5-4 SU/ATS in Manning's nine starts.

This will be the 17th time Brady and Manning will face off during their illustrious careers and the fourth time for the AFC Championship. Brady leads the all time matchup 11-5 SU and 8-6-2 ATS. The over/under record in their 16 meetings is 10-6 O/U.

Meanwhile in the NFC, the No. 1 seeded Carolina Panthers opened as 3-point home favorites against the No. 2 seeded Arizona Cardinals. The total opened at 47.

The Panthers, lead by sure-fire MVP Cam Newton, are the best bet remaining in the playoffs. They went 11-5 ATS in the regular season and followed that up by covering the 2.5 chalk in their Divisional matchup with Seattle. Carolina was also a great over bet this season, going 11-5-1 including playoffs.

The Cardinals, led by their own MVP candidate Carson Palmer, went 9-7 ATS this season, and while they managed a 26-20 OT over Green Bay they were unable to cover as 7-point home favorites. They are 9-8 O/U this season including playoffs.

**Udog** · 01-19-2016, 02:24 PM

Cashing in your NFL Conference Championship bets takes perfect timing

Oddsmakers are basically making the NFC Championship a push, giving the visiting Cardinals three points at Carolina.

Spread to bet now

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-3)

What to make of the Panthers? Carolina was driving a Ferrari in the first half against the Seahawks, but came out in the third period behind the wheel of a VW Beetle. It got just a little bit dicey in the late going as the Panthers went into a four-corner Dean Smith-type offense in the second half. Expected league MVP Cam Newton wound up throwing the ball only 22 times as the Panthers burned clock after going up big early.

The Panthers are unlikely to have their way in the late game against a Cardinals team that is ranked in the Top 10 in the NFL against the run, against the pass and overall. Books figure that this game is a push, giving the field goal to Arizona as the road team. There appear to be no major injuries or other factors that could alter that line, though early money is on Carolina to cover.

Spread to wait on

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+3)

The Patriots are now paying the price for that debacle at Miami in the final game of the season in which they played much of the game to protect the health of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. A win over the pathetic Dolphins would have likely meant that the AFC title game would be played in Gillette Stadium (though the divisional round matchup would have been different), and New England would have been a solid touchdown favorite.

As it is, the Patriots are giving the three, based on New England’s bounce-back effort against white-hot Kansas City last week. New England’s defense is a notch better than Pittsburgh and no one can occupy Peyton Manning’s skull more effectively than Bill Belichick can. Bettors like New England two to one in the early going, but bear in mind that the Patriots and Brady have not ever fared well in Denver since the teams started going at it back in the 1960s.

Totals to watch

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (47)

Both the Cardinals (9-7) and the Panthers (10-5-1) have been Over teams this season, led by MVP-candidate quarterbacks. More importantly, both teams have coaches who are now afraid to let the ball fly - even with the stakes so high.

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (44.5)

Interesting number, considering that when the teams played in late November, they put 48 points on the board in regulation. The Patriots offense is healthier now than it was two months ago and the Broncos have turned back to Manning, even though they had 433 total yards behind Osweiler in November.

**Udog** · 01-19-2016, 02:29 PM

Six ways NFL Championship Sunday is better than Super Bowl Sunday

Simple math tells us that two is better than one. That's just one reason why NFL Championship Sunday is superior to Super Bowl Sunday for football bettors.

The world comes to a screeching halt for one Sunday in February: Super Bowl Sunday. But, while the Big Game may come with all the glitz and glam, football bettors can find all that and more - and a little less - in the NFL Conference Championship Games.

Everyone knows about March Madness. But not everyone pays attention to the conference tournaments the week before the Big Dance.

The same goes for the Super Bowl. Everyone and their dog watches the Big Game – even if you’re not a follower of football – but not everyone takes in the conference championship games that precede the Super Bowl.

For sports bettors, going against the public grain is often times the path to profits. And, much like finding more betting enjoyment wagering on college basketball’s conference tournaments than the NCAA tournament, NFL bettors may gravitate toward the conference championships rather than living and dying for the Super Bowl.

Sure, Super Bowl has all the pageantry and hoopla surrounding it but when it comes to turning a profit and having a little fun while doing it, NFL Conference Championship Sunday takes the cake.

Here are six reasons why NFL Championship Sunday is better than Super Bowl Sunday:

TWO GAMES, MAN

The basic math says NFL Championship Sunday is twice as good as Sunday Bowl Sunday. The fact that there are two games means more options for sports bettors, but it also serves as a safety net – or merciless pit of quicksand with rusty razorblades at the bottom – for football bettors.

With kickoffs at 3:05 p.m. ET and 6:40 p.m. ET Sunday, Championship Sunday offers those bettors coming off losing wagers in the first game a chance to redeem themselves – the infamous “Get Even, or Get Even Deeper” late game.

While plenty of money will be played on the early game – New England at Denver – a lot of that action will funnel into the late game – Arizona at Carolina - with winners looking to double up and losers trying to save their shirts.

Some people like the Divisional Round or Wild Card Weekend, due to the fact there are four games on the slate. But I find NFL Championship Sunday has the perfect balance between big-game buzz and betting options.

SMALLER CROWDS

Try finding a nice seat to watch the Super Bowl on Feb. 7. If you’re in Las Vegas, you better have called ahead – and by ahead we mean like six months ago.

Sportsbooks and sports bar are packed to the gills on Super Sunday, which means simple tasks like taking a pee or getting a refill on your beer will take at least 10 minutes. And those luxuries may not come with a clear view of a TV.

A few years ago, my kid and I took in a matinee NBA game on NFL Championship Sunday and then casually walked into a sports bar following the basketball game and got a premium seat in a booth, right in front of the TV midway through the second quarter of the early kickoff (Yeah, I take my kids to bars. WHAT?!).

Try something like that on Super Bowl Sunday and you’ll find reserved seats on the frozen sidewalk, scanning through the window at a sea of warm drunken heads just to get a glimpse of the 9 a.m. pregame show.

The smaller crowds also translate to the sportsbook on NFL Championship Sunday. This weekend will be a busy day for bookmakers in Nevada, but you won’t need to camp out for a spot in line like you’re trying to get Rolling Stones farewell tour tickets.

Waiting until minutes before kickoff to place your bet is always a little risky, even on a regular NFL Sunday, but you can wait out line moves and grab the spread you want late on Championship Sunday – something that Super Sunday just doesn’t allow.

Depending on where you wager in the Silver State, be prepared to stand in line like the DMV to get down on the Big Game – well ahead of kickoff.

NO BYE WEEK

The bye week before Super Bowl is the Christmas Eve of sports betting: a painfully long period to wait before the grand finale, that always seems longer than time and space will allow.

And for what? The extra week between conference title games and Super Bowl Sunday is more time to second guess your handicapping, twist your brain around the media machine’s bullshit, and cloud your judgement on what is – when stripped down – just another football game.

You don’t have to deal with that crap during NFL Championship Sunday. The odds hit the board immediately following the Divisional Round matchups and whether you jumped on the early numbers or you’re waiting it out, those lines have one week – and one week only – to move around before game time.

Plus, nothing is worse than having that free Sunday before the Super Bowl. The downstairs toilet that you’ve abused and neglected all football season, yeah, your wife wants you to give it a good clean because she knows you’ve got nothing better to do.

“Make it a real ‘super bowl’”, she says with a smile.

Could be worse. You could watch the Pro Bowl…

BETTER LINE VALUE

NFL odds this time of the year are tighter than that Roger Goodell’s butthole every time a player is carted off with a concussion. However, finding an edge in the conference title odds is easier than finding the same value with the Super Bowl numbers.

Books don’t need to drastically move the odds for the Super Bowl so quickly because they have two weeks to try and even out the action and they know the majority of money is going to come on Saturday and Sunday. So, if you’re waiting for the Big Game spread or total to budge a week and a half before game day, you may want to bring a book or better yet write one – you’ll have some open space on your daily planner.

The lines for the conference championships are a little more liberal. Books and bettors have a pretty good idea of what these teams are made of at this point in the postseason, but you will see more movement, more often simply because of the limited window of time. You’ll get those half-point hiccups that make the difference between winning and losing bets at this time of the season.

NO HALFTIME SHOW

If you’re like me, halftime is a chance to get some shit done before the game picks up again.

Gotta poo? Dump out during halftime.

Want some nachos? Bake them bad boys during the break.

Got some household chores to tend to? Take out the trash or toss a load of laundry in while the teams take a breather.

The lack of a must-see halftime spectacular during the conference championships allows football bettors to multitask. Lay some second-half lines while also giving yourself a little break from the action. Clear your head. Acknowledge the existence of your kids for the first time today.

Super Bowl Sunday, on the other hand, is a relentless heavyweight of entertainment that keeps you glued to your seat with haymaker after haymaker, even when the teams aren’t even on the field. Besides the onslaught of great commercials and blockbuster movie trailers, the halftime show itself is something you just can’t risk missing. Especially this year.

What if I get up to put out a grease fire in my kitchen and Beyonce’s boob pops out? And don’t say it doesn’t happen, because we all know it does…

MODERATE MEDIA BLITZ/NO NON-FOOTBALL FANS

Working in sports media can leave you with a Super Bowl hangover well before game day. I recall my days as a content editor on shift work, watching the news wires in the two weeks before a Super Bowl many moons ago.

The stories were interesting in the first week before the game, but quickly deteriorated in quality and topic as the game drew closer. By the time Friday rolled around, reporters were filing in-depth profiles on the kickers and long snappers. At that point, I just wanted the Super Bowl to be over with so I could once again sleep at night.

Even if you’re not in sports media, the two-week ramp up to the big game - that builds ever so slowly like a Rush song - is a lot to ******. The ESPNs and Fox Sports of the industry are constantly cranking out content like some infinite Play-Doh Mop Top Hair Shop, and then you have the non-sports hacks taking their best swing at an entertaining twist on the Big Game: "Twenty dollars for a hot dog?! That’s a great deal! Ha Ha Ha!” BARF!

And while we’re on the subject of Super Bowl newbies, how about those people your girlfriend invited over from her work to your Super Bowl party. The ones who’ve never sat through an entire football game in their lives and thought they should announce that upon arrival, like they're doing something sooooo daring for the first time.

I haven’t had my first prostate exam yet but I’m sure as hell not going to blab all over the waiting room about it when the time comes to bend over and take a deep breath.

Oh, and there’s always this guy, usually some random girl’s boyfriend who decided it would be ironically insulting to sports fans everywhere to wear a shirt and skinny tie to your “Super Bowl Soiree”. This guy doesn’t exist during Championship Sunday. He’s off rock climbing or buying old vinyl records at a flea market. I hate this guy…

Don't get me wrong. As a football fan, I love Super Bowl Sunday (more so when my Dallas Cowboys get to play in it). It's just behind Christmas and Halloween in the holiday pecking order at my house (Sorry, Easter). But, as a sports bettor, NFL Championship Sunday seems made for me.

**Udog** · 01-19-2016, 02:31 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Conference Championships

New England @ Denver

Game 311-312
January 24, 2016 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
140.851
Denver
135.084
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 6
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-3); Over

Arizona @ Carolina

Game 313-314
January 24, 2016 @ 6:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
139.505
Carolina
144.981
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 5 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 3
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-3); Over

NFL
Long Sheet

Sunday, January 24

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NEW ENGLAND (13 - 4) at DENVER (12 - 4) - 1/24/2016, 3:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 52-33 ATS (+15.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 173-132 ATS (+27.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 57-34 ATS (+19.6 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 108-79 ATS (+21.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 76-51 ATS (+19.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 2-2 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 2-2 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA (14 - 3) at CAROLINA (15 - 1) - 1/24/2016, 6:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.
CAROLINA is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all games this season.
CAROLINA is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all lined games this season.
CAROLINA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 72-48 ATS (+19.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
ARIZONA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NFL
Short Sheet

Conference Championships

New England at Denver, 3:00 ET
New England: 11-2 ATS revenging an upset loss against opponent as a road favorite
Denver: 24-8 OVER after allowing 7 or more yards/play in their previous game

Arizona at Carolina, 6:40 ET
Arizona: 3-7 ATS after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games
Carolina: 7-0 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3

NFL

Conference Championships

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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Sunday, January 24

3:05 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. DENVER
New England is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
New England is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New England
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New England

6:40 PM
ARIZONA vs. CAROLINA
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona's last 9 games on the road
Carolina is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games at home

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 01-21-2016, 07:31 AM

NFL's top seeds battle in rare - and profitable - spot on Championship Sunday

In 19 of the 29 instances in which a No. 1 seed played a No. 2 in the conference championship, the No. 1 seed progresses to the Super Bowl. But what about the betting outcome?

Since 1985, there have been 29 (out of a possible 60) instances when the No. 1 seed met the No. 2 seed in the NFL Conference Championship, so it’s far from a rare event.

However, the last time both conferences featured the top two seeds in the AFC and NFC, which is what football bettors have this Championship Sunday, was way back in 2004. It seems that the NFL has featured more parity over the past few years and therefore, reduced the likeliness of this happening.

So what happens when the No. 1 seed plays the No. 2 seed? Well, in short, the No. 1 seed wins more often than not.

In 19 of the 29 instances, the No. 1 seed progresses to the Super Bowl. This is, of course, not unexpected. Not only does the No. 1 seed get home-field advantage for the game, but they are presumably also the better team during the regular season.

This seems to suggest that Carolina and Denver will be the teams to progress, right? Not so fast.

Denver finds itself in the somewhat weird position of being an underdog at home against New England, with only five previous No. 1 seeds being tagged as the pup. And the line does a better job of predicting the outcome than seeding.

Although during the regular season, the lines only predict the correct outcome around 65 percent of the time, during the conference finals when the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds play, they correctly predict it 76 percent of the time (22 of 29). So it’s actually more likely for New England to progress this weekend (as a 3-point favorite).

So, more importantly, who wins the betting matchups when the No. 1 seed plays the No. 2 seed? Unfortunately, it seems like there is no advantage to be gleaned from the lines – the No. 1 has covered the spread 14 of 29 times - nearly exactly 50 percent.

However, one interesting trend has been that the team expected to win has also covered the spread more often than not. Teams projected to win by the oddsmakers have covered the spread 17 times and lost 12 only times.

This isn’t that large of a discrepancy, but it’s more pronounced when you look at cases where the home team (and No. 1 seed) is the betting underdog (as Denver is).

In these cases, of which there have only been five among the entire No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchups, the home underdog has covered only once, the other four times the away favorite has covered the spread. Not a large sample size to be sure, but one that suggests taking New England nonetheless.

We can also look at totals, and see how often a game goes Over the number. In all No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchups, it has gone Over 18 times and Under 10 times (with a push one time) – going Over the total 64 percent of the time. That’s not large enough to be statistically significant (given the small sample size) but definitely large enough to be practically significant.

One thing to notice, however, is that when the home No. 1 seed is a betting underdog to the away No. 2 seed, the games actually lean to the Under more often (2-3 Over/Under).

That means that when the No. 1 seed is favored, as Carolina is, the game goes Over nearly 70 percent of the time. So rather than betting both Overs Sunday, the NFC Championship may hold some extra historic No. 1-versus-No. 2 value in terms of a high-scoring finish.

**Udog** · 01-22-2016, 07:35 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Conference Championships

Could the poor field conditions at Bank of American Stadium slow down the Cardinals speedy defense against the Panthers Sunday?

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+3, 44.5)

Patriots’ red-zone defense vs. Broncos’ red-zone troubles

Offense has been an issue for the Broncos ever since Father Time sacked Peyton Manning sometime around Week 9 of the 2014 season, which so happened to be a 43-21 loss to the Patriots in Foxborough in mid-November. That poor finish to the 2014 campaign snowballed into 2015, with Denver’s offense scoring just over 22 points per game this year.

Finding the end zone has been challenging, especially when the Broncos venture inside their opponents’ 20-yard lines. Denver has scored touchdowns on just under 48 percent of its red-zone trips – which sits sixth lowest in the entire league – and in the past three games, the Broncos have found pay dirt in just 43 percent of those attempts. With Manning back under center, scoring has seen an uptick since his triumphant return in Week 17, but Denver has settled for seven field goals and scored only three touchdowns.

New England has been a “bend but don’t break” defense for a while now. The Patriots did give up big plays throughout the year but turned up the intensity when foes were able to crack the red zone. On the season, the Pats limited opponents to just under three red-zone visits per game and allowed a touchdown in half of those attempts.

Against the Chiefs in the Divisional Round, the New England defense forced Kansas City to settle for two first-half field goals and while it did give up two touchdowns, one was a garbage time score with 1:13 left in the one-sided win. Heading into that game, the Chiefs were dominating in the red zone, scoring touchdowns at a 66 percent clip inside the twenty during their 11-game winning streak.

Daily fantasy watch: New England D/ST

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-3, 47.5)

Cardinals’ speedy defense vs. Panthers’ slow field

One complaint coming out of last weekend’s battle between the Seahawks and Panthers was the field conditions at Bank of America Stadium. Early in the game, Seattle’s defense was having troubles with traction, forcing them to switch to longer studs in their cleats. However, the sloppy surface continued to plague the visitor – or at least scorned Seahawks players made it seem so in their postgame comments.

Bank of America Stadium saw a lot of traffic as well as a lot of rain heading into that Divisional Round contest, including two Panthers games and the Belk Bowl on Dec. 30. The grounds crew had re-sodded the surface but that was softened by rain and snow on game day. The forecast in Charlotte this week is calling for ice and rain Friday and snow again Saturday before giving way to sunny skies Sunday.

To the Panthers’ defense, as coach Ron Rivera told reporters, “Both teams played on it”. But slick field conditions can impact some teams more than others. Arizona, much like Seattle, has a very aggressive defense that relies on speed to overwhelm opposing offenses. The Cardinals are used to playing on grass inside University of Phoenix Stadium, but that’s grown outside and brought in for optimal playing conditions. A slick track, whether it be snow or mud, seems to benefit the ball carrier more than the defense simply because the runner knows which way they're going and the would-be tackler does not.

On offense, pushing through the pile or making a quick cut could be like running on banana peels Sunday. Arizona running back David Johnson told reporters he may have to change his running style, “running downfield a little bit more, not trying to juke as much.” The Cardinals and Panthers met on a similar battle field in the Wild Card Round last year, with Carolina winning 27-16 against an injury-depleted Arizona offense. The Cards managed only 27 yards on 15 rushing attempts and sacked Cam Newton only once in that postseason clash.

Daily fantasy watch: Carolina D/ST

**Udog** · 01-23-2016, 10:11 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Conference Championships

Patriots (13-4) @ Broncos (13-4)-- Denver (+2.5) upset Patriots 30-24 in OT in Week 11, handing NE its first loss of year. Broncos ran ball for 179 yards; two of Patriots' three TDs came on drives of less than 50 yards. Home side won 10 of last 12 series games, including all three playoff games. Patriots lost three of last four road games. four of last five visits here, but are 6-3 in AFC title games with Brady at QB, 2-2 on road, with both wins in Pittsburgh. In last ten years, home dogs are 1-2-1 vs spread in conference title games; home side is 8-1 in last nine AFC title games. Denver is only NFL team to win game this year wthout scoring an offensive TD-- they did it twice- 10 of their 13 wins are by 7 or less points. New England is 3-4 in its last seven games; if they stop run game, can Manning beat them thru air? There is 50-70% chance of rain/snow showers during game.

Cardinals (14-3) @ Panthers (16-1)-- Arizona lost 27-16 here in playoffs LY, but 3rd-string QB Lindley played for Redbirds- they had no chance. Cardinals are 5-9 vs Carolina, 1-4 last five visits here, with only win in '08 playoffs. Arizona won 10 of last 11 games, with only loss in (mostly) meaningless season finale with Seattle- they won last five road tilts, scoring 31.8 ppg. Underdogs are 4-2-1 vs spread in last seven NFC title games; road team is 4-4 SU in last eight. Over last six years, underdogs are 3-1-1 vs spread in conference title games that have #1-2 seeds playing. Carolina is 9-0 at home this year; they scored 31+ points in seven of last eight games; they're 12-0 on grass, but how much did sleet/rain in Carolinas disrupt the Panthers' preparation for this? Weather forecast for Sunday night is cold but dry, with two warm weather teams playing.

**Udog** · 01-24-2016, 08:34 AM

NFL

Sunday, January 24

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NFL Conference Championships betting preview: Patriots at Broncos, Cardinals at Panthers
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Who will punch their ticket to Super Bowl 50 Sunday? The Patriots, Broncos, Cardinals or Panthers?

AFC Championship Game - New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+3, 44.5)

Future Hall-of-Famers Peyton Manning and Tom Brady could be squaring off for the last time and, appropriately, a Super Bowl berth is on the line when the Denver Broncos host the New England Patriots on Sunday. Brady carries an 11-5 advantage into the 17th career meeting between the two best quarterbacks of their generation, but Manning won the last postseason matchup in January 2014.

The second-seeded Patriots lost at Denver in overtime in Week 12 and dropped their final two regular-season games to give the Broncos home-field advantage, but they rebounded to end Kansas City's 11-game winning streak with a 27-20 victory last week. "It's pretty hard to get to this point," Brady said. "There's only four teams standing. Two of these teams have to go home. Hope we're not one of them." Denver capitalized on a late turnover to score 11 points in the final three-plus minutes for a 23-16 victory over sixth-seeded Pittsburgh last week. Manning, who did not play in the earlier meeting with New England, made his first start since Nov. 15 in last week's victory.

TV: 3:05 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened as a rare 3-point road favorite visiting the No. 1 ranked team and can still be found at that number at most books, but there are some Patriots -3.5 popping up at some places. The total has held steady at 44.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Patriots - WR M. Slater (probable Sunday, shin), T S. Vollmer (probable Sunday, ankle), QB T. Brady (probable Sunday, ankle), WR B. LaFell (probable Sunday, foot), TE R. Gronkowski (probble Sunday, knee), WR J. Edelman (probable Sunday, foot), WR D. Amendola (probable Sunday, knee), LB J. Collins (probable Sunday, back), LB D. Fleming (questionable Sunday, back), LB J. Freeny (questionable Sunday, hand), LB D. Hightower (questionable Sunday, knee), DE C. Jones (questionable Sunday, abdominal), DE R. Ninkovich (questionable Sunday, shin), TE S. Chandler (questionable Sunday, knee), DB N. Ebner (questionable Sunday, hand), OL L. Waddle (questionable Sunday, shoulder), G T. Jackson (out Sunday, knee).

Broncos - CB C. Harris (probable Sunday, shoulder), TE O. Daniels (probable Sunday, knee), QB P. Manning (probable Sunday, foot).

WEATHER REPORT: There is a 44 percent chance of rain at kickoff that can turn to snow as the game moves along. Temperatures will be in the low 40's and will drop throughout the game. There will be a slight 3-5 mile per hour wind gusting towards the southern end zone.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The look-ahead line last Sunday morning was going to be Patriots -1.5 (at Broncos). However, after Denver's lackluster win over Pittsburgh, the oddsmakers opened New England -3. The line has gone back and forth from -3 to -3 -120 during the week with a few sportsbooks moving to -3.5. This is a very key number as NFL favorites win by exactly a field goal 10% of the time. Denver won the earlier meeting this season in overtime as a +2.5 home underdog. The Broncos held a 433-301 total yards edge (5.6-4.9 yppl), including a dominating 179-39 rushing edge. However, New England was short-handed on offense in that game as WR Julian Edelman did not play due to injury."

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (13-4, 8-7-2 ATS, 10-7 O/U): Slot receiver Julian Edelman, who missed the last game in Denver, returned from a two-month injury absence and provided an immediate spark to New England's offense with 10 receptions for 100 yards. Tight end Rob Gronkowski shook off knee and back ailments to grab seven passes for 83 yards and a pair of touchdowns as New England had just seven rushing attempts from its running backs. Brady threw for 280 yards and three touchdowns in November but was missing both Edelman and Danny Amendola while Gronkowski was carted off the field with just under three minutes to play in regulation. The Patriots were second to Denver in the regular season with 49 sacks but lost starting linebacker Jerod Mayo to a shoulder injury.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (13-4, 8-8-1 ATS, 6-10-1 O/U): Manning, who threw only nine touchdown passes versus 17 interceptions during the regular season, finished 21-of-37 for 222 yards in last week's win for Denver, which was limited to four field goals before finally getting in the end zone with 3:04 to play. C.J. Anderson has come alive down the stretch, rushing for 240 yards over his last three games while averaging a healthy 6.2 yards per carry. Emmanuel Sanders, who had five receptions for 85 yards last week, made nine catches for 113 yards in the first matchup with New England. The Broncos led the league with 52 sacks and also ranked No. 1 in passing yards (199.6) and total yards against (283.1).

TRENDS:

* Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Broncos are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
* Over is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 playoff games.
* Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 playoff games.

CONSENSUS: The public is backing the Patriots in Brady-Manning 17, with 61 percent of wagers on New England. As for the total, 61 percent of the wagers are on the over.

NFC Championship Game - Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-3, 47)

The Carolina Panthers are perfect at home this season and hope to ride that advantage to the second Super Bowl appearance in franchise history when they host the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday night in a matchup of the top two seeds in the NFC. The Panthers rolled to the best record in the league behind an unblemished home record that remained intact with last weekend's 31-24 victory over Seattle.

“They say to get something that you’ve never had, you have to do something you’ve never done,” Carolina quarterback Cam Newton said. “For us, we’ve never had that vibe in the streets of Charlotte and I expect nothing less than what we saw on Sunday.” The No. 2-seeded Cardinals also are seeking to reach their second Super Bowl and will have a bit of added motivation against the Panthers. Playing with their third-string quarterback, Arizona dropped a 27-16 decision at Carolina a year ago and was held to an NFL playoff record-low 78 yards. The Cardinals, who outlasted Green Bay 26-20 in overtime last week, boast the league's No. 2 scoring offense at 30.6 points per game - behind only the Panthers (31.3).

TV: 6:40 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE HISTORY: The line for the NFC title tilt has held steady at the opening number of Panthers -3 with just the juice getting adjusted. The total opened at 47 and spent some time at 47.5, before getting bet back down to the opening number.

INJURY REPORT:

Cardinals - RB D. Johnson (probable Sunday, toe), QB C. Palmer (probable Sunday, finger), WR J. Brown (probable Sunday, shoulder).

Panthers - RB F. Whittaker (probable Sunday, ankle), RB J. Stewart (probable Sunday, ankle), TE G. Olsen (probable Sunday, stinger), DE J. Allen (out Sunday, foot).

WEATHER REPORT: Plenty of snow hit Charlotte this weekend, but it should be clear, albeit chilly for kickoff. Temperatures will hover around freezing for the game and there will be minimal wind.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The look-ahead line before last week for this possible matchup was Carolina -3 and that is exactly where the oddsmakers opened the real line. It appears the public is backing the Panthers, so this line might rise to -3.5 by kickoff. Last week, heavy money came in on Carolina (vs. Seattle) near game time as the Panthers went from -1 to -2.5/-3. It will be interesting to see if the public money pushes this line higher once again this week."

ABOUT THE CARDINALS (14-3, 9-8 ATS, 9-8 O/U): Arizona's high-powered offense has stalled of late, managing only six points in a loss to Seattle in the regular-season finale and 10 through three quarters in last week's matchup versus Green Bay. Quarterback Carson Palmer admitted to being "tentative" in the first half against Green Bay before throwing for 275 of his 349 yards after halftime. Larry Fitzgerald had eight receptions for 176 yards and the winning touchdown, but rookie running back David Johnson struggled for the second straight game as he was limited to 35 yards on 15 carries. Arizona's defense sacked Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers eight times in Week 16 but got to him only once last weekend.

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (16-1, 12-5 ATS, 11-5-1 O/U): Carolina delivered an early knockout punch to the Seahawks, bolting to a 31-0 halftime lead before holding off a late comeback for its 12th straight home victory. Jonathan Stewart returned from a three-game injury absence to rush for 106 yards and a pair of touchdowns, alleviating the pressure on Newton, who threw for only 161 yards and a score. Tight end Greg Olsen is the top target of Newton, going over 1,000 yards in each of the last two seasons while hauling in seven passes for 77 yards and a TD against Seattle. Carolina's defense dominated the Seahawks up front and recorded five sacks, but defensive end Jared Allen may be unavailable due to a fractured foot.

TRENDS:

* Panthers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 versus NFC.
* Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last seven versus a team with a winning record.
* Under is 6-1 in Cardinals last seven games overall.
* Over is 5-1 in Panthers last six home games.

CONSENSUS: The public likes the home side with the NFC title on the line with 62 percent of wagers on the Panthers. As for the total, 66 percent of wagers are on the over.

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NFL Trends and Indexes - Conference Championships (Sunday, January 24)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Conference Championships (Sunday, January 24)

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