Announcement

**Udog** · 01-09-2016, 10:09 AM

NCAAF
Dunkel

National Championship

Alabama @ Clemson

Game 151-152
January 11, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Alabama
119.203
Clemson
109.311
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Alabama
by 10
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Alabama
by 7
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Alabama
(-7); Under

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Monday, January 11

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ALABAMA (13 - 1) vs. CLEMSON (14 - 0) - 1/11/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEMSON is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
CLEMSON is 56-35 ATS (+17.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
ALABAMA is 49-26 ATS (+20.4 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NCAAF
Short Sheet

National Championship

Alabama at Clemson, 8:30 ET
Alabama: 9-1 ATS on road after 5 games where they committed 1 or less turnovers
Clemson: 0-6 ATS after gaining 300 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games

NCAAF

National Championship

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Trend Report
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8:30 PM
ALABAMA vs. CLEMSON
Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Clemson is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Clemson is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

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**Udog** · 01-09-2016, 11:47 PM

Clemson has the one weapon that can expose Alabama in the National Championship

Alabama and Clemson meet for the National Championship in Arizona Monday night. Sportsbooks have the Crimson Tide set as 6.5-point favorites.

Despite what any die-hard Michigan State supporter will tell you in the wake of their program’s 38-0 shellacking at the hands of Alabama just over a week ago, the Crimson Tide are, in fact, beatable.

The major problem incurred by the Spartans during their December 31 Cotton Bowl appearance in Dallas was that they lacked the personnel necessary to exploit Alabama’s most significant point of vulnerability.

But where Michigan State failed, the Tigers should find plenty of success because Clemson’s roster doesn’t contain the same personnel deficiencies that cost the Spartans yet another chance at a National Championship.

With just 15 regular season defeats suffered since Nick Saban’s 2007 arrival in Tuscaloosa, there are very few instances of failure demonstrated by the Crimson Tide with which an opponent can garner usable intelligence. Hell, the Tide have dropped just five regular season matchups over the last five seasons, shrinking the pool even further.

But if you study and analyze each of those five aforementioned losses, a glaring flaw becomes apparent. It’s the type of imperfection that a team like Michigan State could never hope to take advantage of, but a deficiency that a squad such as Clemson is more than capable of exploiting.

If you want to beat the Alabama Crimson Tide, you’re going to need an elusive, mobile quarterback who can make plays with his feet for 60 minutes.

Not exactly the Da Vinci Code-style of revelation capable of sending Tom Hanks scrambling forth to the next clue, but valuable information nonetheless. To begin, let’s take a look at what the opposing quarterback produced with his legs during each of Alabama’s last five regular season losses:

11/5/2011 vs. LSU and Jordan Jefferson: 11 carries, 43 yards
11/10/2012 vs. Texas A&M and Johnny Manziel: 18 carries, 92 yards
11/30/2013 at Auburn and Nick Marshall: 17 carries, 99 yards, 1 touchdown
10/4/2014 at Ole Miss and Bo Wallace: 11 carries, 32 yards
9/19/2015 vs. Ole Miss and Chad Kelly: 8 carries, 21 yards, 1 touchdown

In Alabama’s 58 regular season wins recorded since the start of 2011, the Crimson Tide defense surrendered an average of just 78.8 rushing yards per game. But in those five aforementioned defeats, Alabama permitted an average of 57.4 rushing yards per game to the opposing quarterbacks alone.

And what’s not included in those above totals are the successful downfield passing plays that came as a direct result of the opposing quarterback’s ability to avoid the rush, extend the play and buy a few extra seconds for his receivers to get open down the field.

To further this point, take note that Alabama has recorded at least one interception in 47 of its last 68 regular season games with an average of 1.04 interceptions registered per game over the last five years. But in those five aforementioned losses, the Crimson Tide recorded just two interceptions total for an average of 0.40 INTs per game.

Alabama’s interception totals plummet during losses to mobile quarterbacks because the Crimson Tide’s pass rush is far less effective than it is against statuesque pocket passers like Michigan State’s Connor Cook, who threw two interceptions in last week’s Cotton Bowl.

Enter Clemson quarterback and Heisman Trophy finalist Deshaun Watson.

Watson, the 6-foot-2, 210-pound sophomore signal-caller out of Gainesville, Georgia, has rushed for over 105 yards in five of his last six contests and absolutely decimated the Oklahoma Sooners on the ground in the Orange Bowl last week with 145 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries while sustaining just one sack in the process.

In addition, Watson has tossed just five interceptions over his last eight outings entering Monday night’s National Championship matchup and has completed a staggering 68.2 percent of his passes through 14 games this season.

And while those numbers may not be enough to tickle your fancy, rest assured that Watson understands exactly what it takes to find success against this Alabama defense, as the Clemson quarterback has spent the last week watching tape of former Texas A&M signal-caller Johnny Manziel’s two outrageously successful performances against Nick Saban’s defensive unit.

Whether or not an elite performance from Watson will be enough to defeat the Crimson Tide won’t be known until late Monday night, but the fact remains that Clemson, unlike Michigan State, boasts the personnel necessary to accomplish such a rare feat.

CURRENT LINES FOR THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Side: Alabama Crimson Tide -7 (with some Alabama -6.5s out there)

Total: 50.5

Percentages: 66% on Alabama, 57% on the OVER

CONVERSATIONS WITH A BOOKMAKER

We spoke with Jeff Sherman, assistant manager of the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, this past week in an effort to gain a better understanding of what has been taking place in the market ever since the opening numbers hit the board.

Where did the Westgate open this game at?

Alabama -7 with a total of 53.5.

Did you take any sharp action early?

We didn’t take anything of note shortly after opening, but the first position the sharps supported was the Under, which forced us to move from 53.5 to its current position of 50.5.

Where do you see these lines closing?

I would think the numbers close in the vicinity of where they currently are, with Alabama -6.5 and some Alabama -7s out there. I also think the total has been driven to its low point and that the public may push it back up to the neighborhood of 51.5.

Which position is the public supporting?

Alabama -6.5.

Which position are the sharps supporting?

Clemson +7.5.

Who do you think wins and covers?

I would have to side with Clemson at +7 or higher. I don’t think there is any value in laying Alabama at its current price.

CONVERSATIONS WITH A SHARP

We spoke with Chris Andrews, a former bookmaker and current handicapper, this past week in an effort to gain an additional perspective of the college football betting market for Monday night’s National Championship showdown between Alabama and Clemson.

Which positions will the sharps be supporting?

Lots of public money, and some sharp money as well, has come in on Alabama, but some pretty big outfit made a play on Clemson at +7 and some additional support has come in on that side as well. I believe that the sharper money will wind up on the underdog, but it will be close. Alabama has plenty of sharp bettors that like them and it’s easy to see why.

Which side do you see the public supporting?

The public will definitely be supporting Alabama.

What’s the key for Clemson to win this game?

Deshaun Watson will have to play huge for Clemson to win. I think the SEC was a bit weak at quarterback this season and Alabama has yet to face a quarterback with Watson’s ability. When Bama faced Ole Miss, Chad Kelly had a pretty solid day against the Crimson Tide defense. I realize that Alabama also had five turnovers in that contest, but Kelly was fantastic. I’m not sure how fair that comparison is, but it is something to hang your hat on if you like Clemson.

What’s the key for Alabama to win this game?

Alabama has to run the ball like they have all year and stop the run on defense. I like to use ratios to evaluate differentials and Bama’s is one of the best I have on record. If the Crimson Tide can maintain that, they will probably win.

Where do you see the side closing at?

I think it closes at Alabama -6.5.

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP PROPOSITIONS

Courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, here are some National Championship game propositions that caught our attention:

Total rushing yards by Deshaun Watson: 47.5 (-110 both ways)

Watson averaged 73.7 rushing yards per game this season and topped 48 rushing yards in nine of 14 contests. Granted, the Alabama defense is much faster and more disciplined than anything the Heisman finalist has faced this season, but given the Crimson Tide’s recent history against mobile quarterbacks, we’ll side with the Over here.

Total points scored by Clemson: 22.0 (-110 both ways)

The Tigers averaged 38.4 points per game this season and topped 22 points in every contest but one (20-17 win at Louisville on September 17). And yes, while Alabama’s defense is, again, better than anything Clemson has faced to date, take note that in the Crimson Tide’s last five regular season losses to mobile quarterbacks, Bama surrendered 23 or more points four times. We’ll back the Over in this spot.

Longest touchdown of the game: 49.5 yards (-110 both ways)

Just for fun, we’ll side with the Under here, as only two of the last seven National Championship games have featured a touchdown of 50 or more yards.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT SEASON

While the city of Las Vegas has yet to release futures prices on next year’s college football championship, we asked Chris Andrews for some insight as to which teams may offer some value once those numbers hit the board.

“Everyone is already high on the Tennessee Volunteers and I can see why. But many of us, myself included, thought the Vols would be a little better this year. Stanford should be right in the mix again with Christian McCaffrey coming back and Alabama will probably be right there as well, but there’s money to be made on them. Plus, Ohio State and Michigan will be worth a look. If you are looking for a sleeper, Washington might be one. They have a long way to go, of course, but Petersen won with nothing this year. If you were buying stock, Washington would be a buy and hold. Oklahoma State might be one to watch, too, but I don’t know if they would have the ability to win it all.”

**Udog** · 01-11-2016, 09:04 AM

NCAAF

National Championship

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CFP National Championship Game betting preview: Alabama vs. Clemson
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No. 1 Clemson meets No. 2 Alabama in Arizona with the National Championship on the line. 'Bama is currently a 6.5-point fave.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Clemson Tigers (+6.5, 50.5)

Game to be played at University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona

Second-ranked Alabama is looking for its fourth national title in the past seven seasons when it faces top-ranked Clemson in the College Football Playoff national championship game at Glendale, Ariz. on Monday. The Crimson Tide reached the title game with a resounding 38-0 victory over Michigan State in the semifinals for their 11th straight victory. The Tigers have won 17 consecutive games dating back to last season and throttled Oklahoma in the second half of their semifinal en route to a 37-17 victory.

Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry of Alabama has rushed for an SEC-record 2,061 yards to go with a conference-tying 25 rushing touchdowns while cementing himself as one of the top running backs in school and SEC history. Clemson sophomore quarterback Deshaun Watson finished third in the Heisman Trophy balloting and his multidimensional skills - 3,699 passing yards and 31 touchdowns, 1,032 rushing yards and 12 scores - concern Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban. "Really is probably as fine a dual-threat quarterback as we've played against for a long, long time and certainly does an outstanding job of executing their offense, and there's no question about the fact that he's an outstanding leader as well, because you can see the way the players sort of rally around him," Saban told reporters.

The status of Clemson junior defensive end Shaq Lawson remains unclear after he suffered a sprained MCL in his left knee during the semifinal victory over Oklahoma. Tigers coach Dabo Swinney has stated that he is hopeful that Lawson (team-best 23.5 tackles for losses, including 10.5 sacks) would be able to play, but the NFL-bound Lawson didn't sound as sure when he met with reporters Tuesday. "I probably wouldn't be able to say I can play right now," Lawson said. "I've just got to get comfortable with it. I'm not comfortable with it right now."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Alabama opened the national championship game favored by a converted touchdown. They have then bounced back and forth between -6.5 and -7 since. They are currently 6.5-pooint favorites. The total has been bet down three points since opening at 53.5 and now sits at 50.5. Check out the complete line history here.

INJURY REPORT:

Alabama - DB T. Brown (out Monday, suspension).

Clemson - S. Lawson (probable Monday, knee), WR D. Cain (out Monday, suspension), PK A. Lakip (out Monday, suspension), TE J. McCullough (out Monday, suspension).

WEATHER REPORT: Indoors.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Sharps and squares are on both sides of spread, but there has been a tad bit more smart money on the underdog than the favorite. Currently, we have about 60 percent of the wagers on Alabama but the money handle is almost dead even. I don’t anticipate us moving off the -7 as kickoff approaches.The under has been hit extremely hard by the steam as we’re down a full three points from the open of 53. This might creep back up to 51 as the public gets more involved on Monday, but it won’t move past that."

ABOUT ALABAMA (13-1, 8-6 ATS, 5-9 O/U): Henry topped 100 yards nine times - and 200 on four occasions - and senior Kenyan Drake (407 yards) is back from a broken arm to provide a nice duo to help take pressure off senior quarterback Jake Coker (2,775 yards, 19 touchdowns). Freshman receiver Calvin Ridley pumped life into the passing game with 83 receptions with 1,031 yards and defensive stalwarts such as junior strong safety Eddie Jackson (team-high five interceptions, two returned for touchdowns), senior middle linebacker Reggie Ragland (team-best 97 tackles) and junior defensive Jonathan Allen (team-high 12 sacks) were among the players that pushed for a higher standard when the Crimson Tide were staggering in September. "I think the early loss to Ole Miss probably did a lot to jilt the attitude of this team in helping them do the things they needed to do, to be what they could be and follow and do the things that were necessary for them to be a good football team," Saban said.

ABOUT CLEMSON (14-0, 7-7 ATS, 5-9 O/U): Swinney grew up in Alabama and played and coached for the Crimson Tide before finding his way to Clemson and finds humor in the irony that he must beat his beloved alma mater to win his first national crown as a head coach. "You go on with your life, and I've been at Clemson 13 years, and I've been trying to get back to the National Championship as a coach for 20-plus years now," Swinney said on a teleconference call. "You know, to have the opportunity to be in my first national championship game as a coach, and it comes against Alabama, I just have to smile at God on that one." Sophomore running back Wayne Gallman set a school-rushing mark with 1,482 yards to go with 12 touchdowns while the Lawson-led defense also features standouts in senior middle linebacker B.J. Goodson (team-best 98 tackles), junior cornerback Cordrea Tankersley (team-leading five interceptions) and junior defensive end Kevin Dodd (nine sacks).

TRENDS:

* Alabama is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. ACC.
* Clemson is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
* Over is 8-2 in Alabama's last 10 bowl games.
* Under is 10-3 in Tigers last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.

CONSENSUS: The public is giving the slight edge to the dog here, with 56 percent of wagers on Clemson. As for the total, 62 percent of wagers are on the over.

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**Udog** · 01-11-2016, 09:07 AM

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

National Championship

Alabama won three of last six national titles; they lost 43-37 back on Sept 19 at home to Ole Miss. Clemson hasn't lost; I'm not a fan of giving points to an unbeaten team. SEC teams are 8-2 SU/ATS in bowls this year; over last five years, SEC teams are 8-4 vs ACC teams in bowls, 1-1 this year. Alabama is 4-2 in last six bowls; five of the six games were decided by 14+. Clemson won its last four bowls, all as an underdog, scoring 39.0 ppg in last three- their last national title was in '81, when Bama graduate Ford was the coach. Swinney is also a Crimson Tide alum. Bama allowed 10 ppg in its last seven games, covering five of last six. ACC teams are 4-5 in bowl games this year, 13-18 the last three years.

Announcement

NCAAF Trends and Indexes - National Championship (Monday, January 11)

NCAAF Trends and Indexes - National Championship (Monday, January 11)

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