The Bum's National Football League Week # 17 Rated Plays - Trends - News Etc. !!

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Sunday, January 3

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NY JETS (10 - 5) at BUFFALO (7 - 8) - 1/3/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 49-29 ATS (+17.1 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.
NY JETS are 36-20 ATS (+14.0 Units) in road games revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
NY JETS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 4-1 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 4-1 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (6 - 9) at CAROLINA (14 - 1) - 1/3/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 71-48 ATS (+18.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
CAROLINA is 79-45 ATS (+29.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 53-27 ATS (+23.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 4-1 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 5-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (12 - 3) at MIAMI (5 - 10) - 1/3/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 172-131 ATS (+27.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 56-35 ATS (+17.5 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
MIAMI is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
MIAMI is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
MIAMI is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.
MIAMI is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
MIAMI is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (5 - 10) at CINCINNATI (11 - 4) - 1/3/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games this season.
CINCINNATI is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
CINCINNATI is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
CINCINNATI is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
CINCINNATI is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
CINCINNATI is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CINCINNATI is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 4-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 4-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (6 - 9) at ATLANTA (8 - 7) - 1/3/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
ATLANTA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (5 - 10) at HOUSTON (8 - 7) - 1/3/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-2 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (9 - 6) at CLEVELAND (3 - 12) - 1/3/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 96-67 ATS (+22.3 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (7 - 8) at KANSAS CITY (10 - 5) - 1/3/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 29-54 ATS (-30.4 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 4-1 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 4-1 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (3 - 12) at INDIANAPOLIS (7 - 8) - 1/3/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 5-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (8 - 7) at DALLAS (4 - 11) - 1/3/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 4-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (6 - 9) at CHICAGO (6 - 9) - 1/3/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 60-85 ATS (-33.5 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
DETROIT is 12-24 ATS (-14.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 3-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 5-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (6 - 9) at NY GIANTS (6 - 9) - 1/3/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 4-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 4-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (10 - 5) at GREEN BAY (10 - 5) - 1/3/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 64-39 ATS (+21.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 58-34 ATS (+20.6 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games this season.
MINNESOTA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
MINNESOTA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
MINNESOTA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 4-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO (4 - 11) at DENVER (11 - 4) - 1/3/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
DENVER is 24-42 ATS (-22.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 4-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 5-1 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ST LOUIS (7 - 8) at SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 11) - 1/3/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 108-147 ATS (-53.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 116-149 ATS (-47.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (9 - 6) at ARIZONA (13 - 2) - 1/3/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 30-17 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 30-17 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-2 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 17

NY Jets at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
New York: 19-7 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss against opponent
Buffalo: 12-4 UNDER as an underdog

Tampa Bay at Carolina, 4:25 ET
Tampa Bay: 35-16 UNDER revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more
Carolina: 8-2 ATS in games played on a grass field

New England at Miami, 1:00 ET
New England: 8-1 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs
Miami: 2-8 ATS as an underdog

Baltimore at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 26-11 UNDER in the last 2 weeks of the regular season
Cincinnati: 8-2 ATS as a favorite

New Orleans at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
New Orleans: 62-41 OVER after scoring 30 points or more last game
Atlanta: 0-6 ATS off a win against a division rival

Jacksonville at Houston, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 9-6 ATS versus division opponents
Houston: 1-6 ATS after scoring 30 points or more last game

Pittsburgh at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Pittsburgh: 96-67 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5
Cleveland: 21-39 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6

Oakland at Kansas City, 4:25 ET
Oakland: 29-54 ATS in the last 4 weeks of the regular season
Kansas City: 13-2 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders

Tennessee at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 3-10 ATS revenging a loss against opponent
Indianapolis: 6-1 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games

Washington at Dallas, 1:00 ET
Washington: 5-3 ATS off an upset win by 14 points or more as a road underdog
Dallas: 1-5 ATS after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games

Detroit at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 5-16 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
Chicago: 73-48 OVER as a home favorite

Philadelphia at NY Giants, 1:00 ET
Philadelphia: 11-2 OVER after 1 or more consecutive losses
New York: 19-8 ATS revenging a loss where team scored less than 9 points

Minnesota at Green Bay, 8:30 ET
Minnesota: 11-3 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49
Green Bay: 35-18 OVER after a loss by 10 or more points

San Diego at Denver, 4:25 ET
San Diego: 81-57 ATS as a road underdog
Denver: 9-21 ATS at home after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 games

St Louis at San Francisco, 4:25 ET
St Louis: 0-7 ATS in road games off a division game
San Francisco: 6-0 UNDER in home games after a loss by 14 or more points

Seattle at Arizona, 4:25 ET
Seattle: 7-0 ATS after having won 4 out of their last 5 games
Arizona: 9-22 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 17

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Trend Report
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1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. MIAMI
New England is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games
Miami is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home
Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. ATLANTA
New Orleans is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 8 games
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Pittsburgh is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Cleveland is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Cleveland is 3-21 SU in its last 24 games when playing Pittsburgh

1:00 PM
NY JETS vs. BUFFALO
NY Jets are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games
NY Jets are 8-17 SU in their last 25 games on the road
Buffalo is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Buffalo is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Jets

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. CINCINNATI
Baltimore is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Baltimore is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 9 games when playing Baltimore
Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Tennessee is 3-22 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Indianapolis's last 10 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. NY GIANTS
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
NY Giants are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
NY Giants are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Philadelphia

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
Houston is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Jacksonville

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. DALLAS
Washington is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Washington is 3-18 SU in its last 21 games on the road
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Dallas is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home

4:25 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. CAROLINA
Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games at home

4:25 PM
OAKLAND vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Oakland is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Oakland
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

4:25 PM
SEATTLE vs. ARIZONA
Seattle is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Seattle is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games at home
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

4:25 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing San Francisco
St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing at home against St. Louis

4:25 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. DENVER
San Diego is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Denver
San Diego is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver
Denver is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing San Diego
Denver is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games at home

8:30 PM
MINNESOTA vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Minnesota's last 16 games when playing Green Bay
Minnesota is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games ,when playing Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay's last 8 games when playing at home against Minnesota

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 17

Jets (10-5) @ Bills (7-8)-- Jets make playoffs with a win, but they've lost five of last six games with Buffalo, losing last three visits here by 19-23-35 points. Jets lost at home to Bills 22-17 (-2.5) in Week 10, thanks to -4 turnover ratio that included a TD on a fumbled kick return. Jets are +18 in turnovers in their wins, -13 in losses; they won/covered last five games, including OT win over Patriots LW. Jets lost three of five true road games (played "at" Giants, vs Miami in London); they're 6-5 as faves, 1-2 on road. Buffalo lost four of last six games but has won three in row at home, by 16-9-10 points; they're 3-2-1 as underdogs, 1-1 t home. Five of last seven Jet games stayed under total.

Buccaneers (6-9) @ Panthers (14-1)-- Carolina lost first game LW, has next week off thanks to its bye; unsure how many starters they'll rest here. Panthers (-3) scored two defensive TDs in 37-23 (-3) win at Tampa Bay in Week 4, its 7th win in last nine game vs Bucs, who have lost five of last seven visits here, last two by 19-2 points. Tampa lost four of its last five games (-7 turnover ratio); they're 4-3 as road dogs, but lost 25-12/31-23 in last two road games. Bucs' defense has one takeaway in its last five games. Carolina gave up 30+ points in three of last four games; they're 4-2 as home faves- four of their last five games were on road. Six of last nine Carolina games went over the total.

Patriots (12-3) @ Dolphins (5-10)-- New England is 2-3 in last five games after 10-0 start; they need win here for bye next week, home field thru AFC playoffs. Patriots (-8) pounded Miami 36-7 back in Week 8, outgaining Fish 437-270 in game that was 19-0 at half. Dolphins lost seven of last nine games (1-8 vs spread), losing its last three games by 7-16-6 points- they're 2-4 at home, losing by 27-10-7-6 points. Now the wife of a defensive player is ripping QB Taneyhill on Twitter- not good. Home side won last six series games; Patriots lost 24-20/33-20 in last two visits here- they are 9-2 in last 11 series games overall. Under is 5-2 in last seven Miami games, 1-4 in last four Patriot games.

Ravens (5-10) @ Bengals (11-4)-- McCarron sprained left wrist Monday nite on last play, is expected to play; Bengals could still get bye next week, so they need to win this game, against team they beat 28-24 (+2.5) in Week 3. Bengals led 14-0 at half, averaged 10.9 ypa, had 15-yard edge in field position. Ravens lost five of last six in series, losing last three visits here by 6-17-3 points. Baltimore got boost from new QB Mallett LW, 4th QB they started in last six games. Ravens covered last three on road; their only two SU road wins were division games at Pitt/Cleveland. Under is 7-2 in last nine Bengal games, 4-2-1 in last seven Baltimore games. Bengals lost two of last three at home, but are 4-2-1 as home favorites.

Saints (6-9) @ Falcons (8-7)-- Atlanta won last two games, allowing 15 ppg but 1-7 skid doomed their season, a skid that started with 31-21 (-3) loss to Saints at home in Week 6, when Falcons lost three fumbles and had punt blocked for TD. Saints are 15-5 in last 20 games in this rivalry, 6-3 in last nine visits here; they've allowed 43 TD passes this year, three more than any team, ever. NO is 2-5 on road, 3-3 as a road underdog- they won two of last three games, covered three of last four. Over is 8-3 in last 11 Saint games, 0-9 in Falcons' last nine. Falcons failed to cover seven games in row as a favorite- they're 1-4 as home favorites. Atlanta converted 15 of 29 on third down in last two games. This is an underrated rivalry game.

Jaguars (5-10) @ Texans (8-7)-- Houston makes playoffs unless nine things happen Sunday; they've won six of last eight games after a 2-5 start, winning last two with #5 QB Weeden playing (33-54/352 in two games). Texans (+2) won 31-20 in Week 6 at Jacksonville, picking off three passes (+3) one of which was run back for TD. Jax lost four of last five games, are 4-3 as road underdogs. Texans are 3-3 as favorites this year; they ran ball for 283 yards last two weeks- they're +10 in turnovers in last ten games, after being -8 in first five games. Over is 4-1 in last five Jaguar games, 1-7 in last eight Houston games. Jags lost four of last five visits here; last three were all decided by 7 or less points. Hoyer is healthy again, will start at QB for Texans.

Steelers (9-6) @ Browns (3-12)-- Pitt needs win here and Bills win to make playoffs; they beat Browns 30-9 (-4.5) in Week 10, throwing for 399 yards (10.5 yp) in game that was 21-3 at half. Steelers are 27-5 vs Cleveland, but lost two of last three here; they lost three of last four road games, are 5-2 as favorite this year, 1-1 on foreign soil. Browns lost nine of last ten games, covered two of last three; they covered once in last seven games as an underdog- their only recent win was 24-10 vs 49ers. Browns have two TDs on 25 drives last three losses, by 34-17-4 points. Four of last five Steeler games went over total; six of last seven Cleveland games stayed under. Manziel is in concussion protocol; Austin Davis likely to start at QB for Browns.

Raiders (7-8) @ Chiefs (10-5)-- KC is in playoffs, can still win AFC West, Oakland has shot for a .500 season- this is a big rivalry. Chiefs won last nine games (7-2 vs spread) after 1-5 start- they're 2-4 as home favorites- failing to cover last two home games despite allowing one TD on 18 drives. Raiders are 4-0 as road dogs, losing away games by 2-3-5 points (4-3SU). Four of Chiefs' last five home games stayed under total. Chiefs (-3) won 34-20 at Oakland in Week 13, picking off three passes in 4th quarter that led to TD drives of 13-2 yards as well as a defensive TD. Chiefs won four of last five series games, winning 24-7/31-13 in last two here-- Raiders had won six in row at Arrowhead before Reid became Chiefs' coach.

Titans (3-12) @ Colts (7-8)-- Indy still has (small) shot at division title, they signed Freeman/Lindley off street Monday, but Hasselbeck says he feels better and could start. Colts (-3) won 35-33 at Tennessee in Week 3, scoring a defensive TD- they're 13-1 last 14 series games, winning last eight in row. Titans lost last seven visits to Indy, with five of seven losses by 8+ pts. Tennessee lost six of last seven games (0-6-1 vs spread); they're 2-4 as underdogs on road, losing last three on foreign soil by 6-22-17 points. Under is 6-3-1 in last ten Titan games, 4-2 in last six Indy games. Indy was outscored 85-6 in second half of its last four games. I cannot think of one good reason to wager on this game.

Redskins (8-7) @ Cowboys (4-11)-- Washington is locked into #4 seed/home field in playoff game next week; will they rest starters? Dallas is 1-10 in games started by backup QBs- Moore makes second career start here. Cowboys scored 9.7 ppg in losing last three games since 19-16 (+3.5) win in Maryland four weeks ago, winning despite losing three fumbles (-2), converting 1-9 on third down. Redskins won two of last three visits here, won/covered last three weeks, scoring 73 points in last two games. Washington won last two road games after losing first five; they're 3-4 as a road underdog. Dallas hasn't won a home game since Opening Night. Over is 5-2 in last seven Redskin games, 1-6 in last seven Dallas games.

Lions (6-9) @ Bears (6-9)-- Detroit got first win of year in Week 6, beating Bears in OT, 37-34; Lions outgained Bears 546-444, were -2 in turnovers, won despite losing field position by 15 yards- both teams scored in last 0:21 of regulation. Detroit won five of seven games since 1-7 start; they scored 67 points in last two games, with eight TDs on last 20 drives. Lions are 1-9 vs spread when they allow more than 17 points. Chicago lost three of last four games; they're 1-6 at home, losing last four- their only home win was 22-20 over Raiders in Week 4. Detroit won last five series games, winning 21-19/20-14 in last two visits here. Four of last five Detroit games, last four Chicago games went over total.

Eagles (6-9) @ Giants (6-9)-- Philly fired Kelly Monday; Lord knows how players will react here, with Giants coach Coughlin also on hot seat. Philly (-4) won 27-7 in first meeting in Week 6, running for 155 yards- they're 12-3 in last 15 games against Giants, winning seven of last eight played here. Both teams were eliminated when Redskins won last week; Eagles beat Jets 24-17 on this field in Week 3- they're 3-4 on road, beating Patriots in last road game. Giants lost five of last six games, giving up 87 points last two weeks; Big Blue lost last three home games by total of seven points. Five of last six Philly games, last three Giant games went over total. Giants have only three takeaways (-7) in last five games.

More Armadillo to come....

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 17

Vikings (10-5) @ Packers (10-5)-- Winner takes NFC North title, gets home tilt in playoffs next week. Green Bay (+1) won first meeting 30-13 in Twin Cities; they're 10-1-1 in last dozen series games, 5-0-1 in last six played here- four of five wins were by 9+ points. Minnesota scored 87 points in winning last two games; they're 12-3 vs spread this year, covering last six on road- they're 5-1 as an underdog. Green Bay was crushed in Arizona LW; Rodgers was sacked nine times in Pack's first loss in four games- they're 4-3 as home favorite this year. Three of last four Viking games went over total; five of last seven Packer games stayed under. Lows for this game expected to be in mid-teens.

Chargers (4-11) @ Broncos (11-4)-- Denver needs win for division title if KC won its 1:00 game, home field/bye either way. Broncos (-6) beat Chargers 17-3 four weeks ago, scoring a defensive TD and holding Bolts to 272 yards, in its 8th win in last nine series games. Chargers split last four visits here, losing by 7-14 points. San Diego has been out of it for long time but they covered four of last five games- they're still competing. Chargers are covered their last five road games. Denver rallied from 14-0 down LW to beat Bengals and stay in first place; they're 1-4 as home favorites. Under is 6-1 in last seven San Diego games, 3-1 in last four Bronco games. Manning will be Denver's backup QB.

Rams (7-8) @ 49ers (4-11)-- Both teams are out of it but this is rivalry; St Louis won 27-6 (-8) in first meeting, outrushing Niners 197-38, holding SF to 3.4 ypa. Rams are 1-1-1 in last three visits here, 4-10-1 in last 15 overall but they're now better team. St Louis won its last three games, scoring 25 ppg after five-game that ruined their season- their win/cover LW was their first in six outdoor tilts this year. 49ers lost last three games by 14-10-15 points; they're 3-4 at home, with all four losses to top teams. SF is 4-3 as home underdog- they were dog in every game this season. Under is 9-2 in Rams' last 11 games, 6-3 in 49ers' last nine games. This is Rams' first game on grass since October 11.

Seahawks (9-6) @ Cardinals (13-2)-- Arizona won its last nine games (5-4 vs spread); only games they lost this year they were -3 in turnovers both games. Cardinals (+3) won 39-32 at Seattle in Week 10, despite turning ball over three times (-2)- they converted 8-17 on third down. Redbirds are 3-4 as favorites at home- they scored three defensive TDs in last two games. Seattle had 5-game win streak snapped LW; they've 4-2 in last six games with Arizona, winning 34-22/35-6 in last two visits here- their last four series wins were by 12+ pts. Seattle can move up to #5 seed and face Redskins instead of Packers/Vikings next week. Four of last five Arizona games stayed under the total.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Some NFL trends to ponder with Week 17 upon us..........

-- Tennessee is 7-21-2 vs spread in last 30 games as an underdog.

-- Chicago covered twice in its last ten home games.

-- Miami covered once in its last nine games.

-- 49ers covered once in their last eleven divisional games.

-- Chiefs covered seven of their last nine games.

-- Minnesota covered its last six road games.

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Public Fades - Week 17
December 31, 2015

The final week of the NFL regular season is here as all six playoff spots in the NFC have been spoken for. The last postseason berth is still up in the air in the AFC between the Steelers and Jets, while the Patriots are looking to wrap up home-field advantage with a victory at Miami. Plenty of games involve teams not headed to the playoffs, with the biggest story centering around the firing of head coach Chip Kelly in Philadelphia.

In this week’s edition of “Public Fades,” we’ll focus on going against the Patriots and Giants.

Patriots (-10 ½, 47) at Dolphins – 1:00 PM EST

New England suffered an embarrassing loss last week, even though they fell in overtime to the Jets, 26-20. Bill Belichick’s decision to kick off to start overtime in spite of winning the coin toss went under much scrutiny around the country as the Patriots could have clinched home-field advantage by beating New York. Instead, they left the door open for Denver, who rallied past Cincinnati on Monday night to move within one game of New England for the top spot in the AFC, as the Broncos own the tie-breaker over the Patriots.

The Dolphins are just waiting for this disastrous season to end following their third straight loss last Sunday, falling to the Colts, 18-12 at home. Miami’s offense has scored 20 points or less in eight of the last nine games since putting up 44 on the Texans in late October, while posting a 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS record the previous nine contests. The Dolphins have won each of the past two home meetings with the Patriots, but lost a 36-7 decision at Foxboro two months ago in their first matchup this season.

So why back the Dolphins?

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson points out that the Patriots’ offense has taken a dip the last few games, “New England has some of the best offensive numbers in the league, but the numbers have slipped in recent weeks with just over 25 points per game the last six weeks with the team going 3-3 in that span. New England has been handed defensive touchdowns each of the past two games to boost those numbers as well. After scoring 28 or more points in each of the first seven games of the season, New England has hit that mark just twice since. New England is just 2-4-1 ATS in the last seven games and they were pretty fortunate to cover against Tennessee in Week 15 as this is a not a team that will enter the playoffs playing its best.”

Nelson says that the Dolphins have some strong numbers going in their favor, “Miami has failed to cover in each of the last six games, sitting at 4-11 ATS on the season, but that creates a huge spread that is currently three points higher than the number when New England hosted Miami in October. Since December of 2009, NFL double-digit road favorites are on a 6-22 ATS run and Miami has won two of the last five home games with none of the losses coming by more than 10 points.”

Eagles at Giants (-3 ½, 51 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

The tumultuous three-year run of Chip Kelly on the Philadelphia sidelines is over with, even though there is still one game remaining on the schedule. The Eagles managed a pair of 10-6 records in Kelly’s first two seasons, but a 6-9 mark in 2015 to go along with running several key offensive weapons out of town prior to the season sealed his fate. Philadelphia is coming off a pair of double-digit home losses to division champions Arizona and Washington the last two weeks, while losing five of seven games down the stretch.

Things haven’t been much better for the Giants, who own the exact same record as their division rivals at 6-9. New York threw away five games when leading in the fourth quarter, as this team is likely in the playoffs if they won even two of those contests. Odell Beckham, Jr. returns from his one-game suspension for the Giants, who were blown out at Minnesota last Sunday night, 49-17, as the New York defense has allowed 87 points the last two weeks.

So why back the Eagles?

Earlier this season, Philadelphia dominated New York at home on a Monday night. Nelson says the firing of Kelly could be a rallying cry for this team, “The Eagles did beat the Giants 27-7 in Week 6 and it seemed like Kelly had fallen out of favor with many of the players. The team might be able to rally together for the final game under Pat Shurmur and this is a team headed for another major overhaul as everyone will be fighting for a job here or elsewhere.”

This series has been pretty one-sided over the years as Nelson analyzes the way Philadelphia has handled New York, “This is still a great rivalry game and the Giants are not in a much different situation than the Eagles as many assume this may be Tom Coughlin’s last game with major changes potentially ahead. The Eagles are 12-3 SU and ATS in the last 15 meetings in this series with wins and covers in seven of the last eight meetings at New York. The Giants have allowed at least 20 points in six consecutive games with a 1-5 finish to the season as the defense will certainly be vulnerable against Sam Bradford and a still capable Eagles offense that may actually feel some relief to have Kelly let go.”

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday's Top Action
December 31, 2015


NEW YORK JETS (10-5) at BUFFALO BILLS (7-8)

Sportsbook.ag Line: New York -3.0, Total: 42.5

Rex Ryan will be looking to keep his former team out of the playoffs when the Bills host the Jets on Sunday.

New York has caught fire recently; winning five straight games after defeating the Patriots 26-20 at home in Week 16. The Jets have allowed 20 or less points in five straight games and they are clicking on both sides of the ball entering this meeting with the Bills. New York has also gone 3-0-2 ATS over the past five weeks, so its last loss ATS was Nov. 22 against Houston. Buffalo won-and-covered in its Week 16 meeting with Dallas and the victory prevented a three-game losing skid for the Bills. The team will be playing for pride in this one, as an 8-8 finish is in reach and the team can also prevent the division rival Jets from making the playoffs.

The Bills won when these teams met on Nov. 12, defeating New York 22-17 as 2.5-point road underdogs. The trends in this game seriously favor New York, as the Jets are an impressive 8-1 ATS in the last four weeks of the regular season over the past three seasons. They are also 19-7 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss against an opponent since 1992.

RB Chris Ivory (Knee) is probable for the Jets in this one and RB LeSean McCoy (Knee) is doubtful for the Bills, who are also without TE Charles Clay (Back).

The Jets are playing some incredible football heading into this game and one more win will get them into the playoffs. Darrelle Revis has found his game for New York in recent weeks, as he has now had a pick in back-to-back games. He’ll be there to make Tyrod Taylor pay for any mistakes he makes throwing the ball downfield.

New York would be wise to throw the football in Brandon Marshall’s direction on the offensive side of the field. Marshall torched New England for 115 yards and two touchdowns last week. He is enjoying playing with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Eric Decker is enjoying the attention that Marshall commands opposite of him. Decker has caught a touchdown pass in three straight games and had six catches for 85 yards and a touchdown the last time he faced Buffalo.

Ryan Fitzpatrick will be looking to both of them to make plays in this one. As long as he avoids throwing picks then the Jets should be able to win this one and that has not been a problem for him lately with just one interception in the past three games.

The Bills have had a disappointing season, but they’ll be looking to play the role of spoiler on Sunday against the Jets. If Buffalo is going to beat New York then Tyrod Taylor will need to get something going in the passing game. Taylor has had a very good season for the Bills, throwing for 2,853 yards with 20 touchdowns and just six picks. He did, however, put up a dud against Dallas last week. He had just 179 passing yards with no touchdowns and one interception in that one. He has to take care of the ball against the Jets and also find a way to get the ball into Sammy Watkins’ hands.

Defensively, the Bills need to find a way to stop Brandon Marshall. Marshall has been on fire over the past few weeks and nobody has had an answer for him. If the Bills can find a way to take him out of the game then they’ll have a good shot of pulling off the upset in this one.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (12-3) at MIAMI DOLPHINS (5-10)

Sportsbook.ag Line: New England -10.0, Total: 47.0

The Patriots will be looking to head into the playoffs with some momentum by beating the Dolphins in Miami on Sunday.

New England had won-and-covered in two straight games before losing 26-20 in overtime in New York last week. The Patriots were two-point road favorites in that game and made the questionable decision to defend first in overtime. That decision ended up losing them the game, as the Jets drove down the field and won on a touchdown pass from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Eric Decker.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, have been atrocious recently. Miami comes into this one after losing its third straight game after an 18-12 home loss against Indianapolis. The Dolphins have also lost five of their past six and they have not covered since a 20-19 win-and-cover against Philadelphia on Nov. 15. When these teams met on Oct. 29, the Patriots dominated in a 36-7 home victory. New England was an eight-point home favorite, but Miami has won-and-covered in two straight home games against the Patriots.

There are some favorable trends in New England’s favor heading into this one, as the Patriots are 7-0 ATS after allowing six or more yards per play in their previous game over the past two seasons and 19-7 ATS in road games after a loss by six or less since 1992.

WR Julian Edelman (Foot) is doubtful for New England and WR Danny Amendola (Knee) is questionable for the team. S Patrick Chung (Hip), DE Rob Ninkovich (Ankle) and S Devin McCourty (Ankle) are also questionable for the Patriots, who are likely to be missing T Sebastian Vollmer (Leg). Miami, meanwhile, could be without WR Rishard Matthews (Ribs) and Ryan Tannehill (Foot), who are both listed as questionable.

The Patriots are not in dire need of a victory on Sunday, but they’d likely prefer not to enter the postseason after having lost two straight games. Tom Brady will be looking forward to this meeting with the Dolphins, as he was unstoppable when the teams met earlier in the season. Brady completed 26-of-38 passes for 356 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. If he can come close to repeating that performance then it’ll be tough for the Dolphins to win, as the team has not been good offensively recently.

One guy that the Dolphins will want to keep an eye on is James White. White has been a serious weapon in the passing game recently, catching 26 passes for 252 yards and three touchdowns over the past four weeks. Tom Brady will be looking in White’s direction plenty on Sunday.

The Dolphins will be playing for pride when they host the Patriots on Sunday. Ryan Tannehill is questionable for this one and it may be better off for the team if he sits out. Tannehill has been lousy the past few weeks, throwing for no touchdowns with one interception in the past two games. He has not been effective as a passer this season and what was supposed to be his breakout year has been extremely disappointing. Miami will need to establish the run game against New England in this one.

Lamar Miller has rushed for 812 yards with eight touchdowns on just 175 carries this season. He has gotten just 12 carries per game over the past three weeks and that is not enough for a runner as talented as him. The Dolphins would be wise to let him run the ball at least 20 times in this game.

Defensively, the Dolphins need to find a way to slow down Tom Brady. He lit them up earlier in the season and they cannot win if he is able to just throw all over them on Sunday.

[StarDust Bum]

HILTON CONTEST REPOT

Every week during the NFL season, we post the top five consensus
selections (by number of handicappers) from the Super Contest
(formerly knows as the Hilton Super Contest) the most prestigious
handicapping tourney in Las Vegas

This weeks top five

5. Steelers -3 1/2 317 Handicappers

4. Giants -3 327 Handicappers

3. Jets -3 328 Handicappers

2. Packers -3 392 Handicappers

1. Bills +3 403 Handicappers

Yes both the Bills and the Jets are in the top five, it doesn't happen
often but it shows the interest in this game.

The least favorite team in this week contest is Tennessee +2 1/2
with a season low 42 handicappers on the Titans

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SUNDAY'S NFL TRENDS

NY Jets at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
New York: 19-7 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss against opponent
Buffalo: 12-4 UNDER as an underdog

Tampa Bay at Carolina, 4:25 ET
Tampa Bay: 35-16 UNDER revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more
Carolina: 8-2 ATS in games played on a grass field

New England at Miami, 1:00 ET
New England: 8-1 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs
Miami: 2-8 ATS as an underdog

Baltimore at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 26-11 UNDER in the last 2 weeks of the regular season
Cincinnati: 8-2 ATS as a favorite

New Orleans at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
New Orleans: 62-41 OVER after scoring 30 points or more last game
Atlanta: 0-6 ATS off a win against a division rival

Jacksonville at Houston, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 9-6 ATS versus division opponents
Houston: 1-6 ATS after scoring 30 points or more last game

Pittsburgh at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Pittsburgh: 96-67 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5
Cleveland: 21-39 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6

Oakland at Kansas City, 4:25 ET
Oakland: 29-54 ATS in the last 4 weeks of the regular season
Kansas City: 13-2 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders

Tennessee at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 3-10 ATS revenging a loss against opponent
Indianapolis: 6-1 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games

Washington at Dallas, 1:00 ET
Washington: 5-3 ATS off an upset win by 14 points or more as a road underdog
Dallas: 1-5 ATS after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games

Detroit at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 5-16 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
Chicago: 73-48 OVER as a home favorite

Philadelphia at NY Giants, 1:00 ET
Philadelphia: 11-2 OVER after 1 or more consecutive losses
New York: 19-8 ATS revenging a loss where team scored less than 9 points

Minnesota at Green Bay, 8:30 ET
Minnesota: 11-3 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49
Green Bay: 35-18 OVER after a loss by 10 or more points

San Diego at Denver, 4:25 ET
San Diego: 81-57 ATS as a road underdog
Denver: 9-21 ATS at home after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 games

St Louis at San Francisco, 4:25 ET
St Louis: 0-7 ATS in road games off a division game
San Francisco: 6-0 UNDER in home games after a loss by 14 or more points

Seattle at Arizona, 4:25 ET
Seattle: 7-0 ATS after having won 4 out of their last 5 games
Arizona: 9-22 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games

[StarDust Bum]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 17
January 1, 2016

Information is always the key to making a number in any sport, but probably none is more important than the NFL just because of the high limits and volume handled. The NFL lines are the most sound of any sport, but when Week 17 rolls around it puts bookmakers in an uncomfortable situation because they’re waiting for information on how long starters will play for popular teams that already have a date in the playoffs set. And then comes the dilemma of determining how much that information received is worth to the number.

In most cases, it’s the bettors that do the deciding on what the proper number is when getting the information which is why it’s not unusual to see rapid line movements similar to the pre-season.

A perfect example of how cautious the sports books are being this week is at Station Casinos where nine of the 16 games are circled -- $2,000 limit instead of the normal $20,000. If you know you’re going to get beat to the punch or aren't confident a sound number is being posted, there’s no need to give full limits.

Below is a look at the Early Week 17 opening numbers posted last Wednesday at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and where the line has been moved to based on playoff situation, injuries, rating adjustment following Week 16 results, market adjustments on Sunday night and then of course actual cash wagered.

NY Jets at Buffalo: The Bills opened -1.5 and then was re-opened with the Jets -1.5 on Sunday night because of the importance of the game for New York and Bills running back LeSean McCoy being listed as 'doubtful.' Bettors laid New York up to -3 because of ’having to win’ to make the playoffs, but Buffalo money has showed up pushing it back down to -2.5. From a power ratings perspective, N.Y. is only about 1.5-points better than Buffalo, and when factoring in McCoy, it’s about a 2-point differential. Buffalo's home field is worth 2.5, so it would seem the Westgate’s early number is closer to what the proper line should be. Is the Jets playoff situation really worth 4-points? The betting public and their early parlay leans apparently think it is, so the Jets -2.5 is the proper number because most laid it. But larger money grabbed the value with +3 at home. The Jets have won their past five games (4-0-1 ATS) while the Bills have won and covered the past four meetings versus New York.

Tampa Bay at Carolina: The Panthers opened -10 and were re-opened at -9.5 Sunday night before being bet up to -10.5 on Monday. Tampa Bay has failed to cover its past three games while Carolina is 1-3 ATS in its last four. Carolina needs to win this game to ensure home field advantage throughout, or have Arizona lose at home to Seattle.

New England at Miami: The Patriots opened -3.5 and were re-opened -8 Sunday night and it’s currently -10. Last week it looked like this could be a game where New England rested players, but following the loss at the New York Jets and Denver's MNF win, home field throughout the playoffs isn’t clinched yet. Miami has gone 0-8 ATS in its last eight against AFC East teams, including a 37-10 average loss to New England in its past two meetings.

Baltimore at Cincinnati: The Bengals opened -10 and it’s now -9. Baltimore comes off a huge win over Pittsburgh last week behind newly signed QB Ryan Mallett. Cincinnati can become the No. 2 seed even with a loss if Denver loses and Kansas City wins because then the Chiefs would be AFC West champs and Cincy beat them head-to-head this season. The Bengals are an amazing 12-2-1 ATS this season.

New Orleans at Atlanta: No early line posted due to QB Drew Brees status, but he‘s expected to play and Atlanta was opened -4 on Monday and the line shot up to -5.5 on Thursday. The home team is 7-1 ATS in the past eight meetings.

Jacksonville at Houston: No early line posted due to Houston's QB situation, but Brian Hoyer is expected to start. Houston opened -6 and it’s currently -6.5. The Texans need to win this game to clinch NFC South to avoid all kinds of odd tie-breaking procedures issues should Indianapolis win against Tennessee.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland: The Steelers opened -9.5 and it’s currently -10.5. Pittsburgh needs to win and hope Buffalo beats the N.Y. Jets to make playoffs. Austin Davis will start at QB for Cleveland.

Oakland at Kansas City: Kansas City opened -7 and it’s now -7 (-120). KC can win the AFC West with a win and a loss by Denver. Oakland is looking for its first .500 season since 2011 while the Chiefs ride a nine game winning streak (7-2 ATS).

Tennessee at Indianapolis: The Colts opened -3, but with QB Matt Hasselbeck likely out, no line has been posted. Indy has a slim chance of making playoffs with a Houston loss, but those chances appear to be even slimmer since QB duties will be in the hands of Ryan Lindley or Josh Freeman who were both signed early in the week with each getting first string reps in practice.

Washington at Dallas: Opened Pick ‘em and it’s now DAL -4 due to WASH expecting to rest starters after clinching the NFC East following its season-high three game win streak. Kellen Moore will start at QB for Dallas and QBs not named Romo for Dallas have gone 1-10 this season. The Redskins are 7-1 ATS in last eight games at Dallas including last season behind QB Colt McCoy who is expected to get most of the snaps on Sunday.

Detroit at Chicago: The Bears opened -1.5 and its currently -1. Detroit has won the past five meetings.

Philadelphia at NY Giants: The Giants opened -2.5 (-120) and its currently -3.5 (EVEN) with none of the movement having to do with Chip Kelly being fired.

Minnesota at Green Bay: The Packers opened -5.5 and was re-opened Sunday night at -3 following GB getting blasted 38-8 at Arizona and Minnesota blowing out its past two opponents by a 43-17 average score. On Friday morning Green Bay was moved to -3.5 (EVEN). Whoever wins this game will be NFC North champions and get the No. 3 seed. Minnesota has gone 12-3 ATS this season.

San Diego at Denver: The Broncos opened -9.5 and it’s currently -9. If Denver wins they get the No. 2 seed and have an outside shot at being No. 1 if Miami can somehow pull off a miracle against New England. Although San Diego is only 1-6 on the road this season, they have covered its last three games overall and last five on the road.

St. Louis at San Francisco: The Rams opened -2.5 and was re-opened -3.5 on Sunday and hasn’t moved all week. St. Louis has won and covered its last three games while San Francisco lost and failed to cover its last three.

Seattle at Arizona: The Seahawks opened -2.5 and was re-adjusted to Arizona -3.5 on Sunday night following Week 16 results which included Carolina losing to Atlanta, making the No. 1 seed still a possibility for the Cardinals. On Monday the number was bet up to -4.5. On Tuesday, it was quickly moved past the dead numbers of -5 and -5.5 up to -6 and finally -6.5 where it still sits. It’s possible with nothing to gain that Seattle could rest some starters while Arizona coach Bruce Arians has said he’ll rest no one.

Happy New Year everyone!

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 17
January 2, 2016


NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Patriots are 13-0 ATS (15.27 ppg) since Nov 03, 2002 on the road after a loss where they allowed at least 22 first downs.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Bears are 0-12-2 ATS (-9.36 ppg) since Dec 18, 2011 at home after a game with a rushing touchdown.

TOP NFL PLAYER ATS TREND:

-- The Seahawks are 6-0 ATS (11.17 ppg) since Sep 27, 2015 after a game in which Doug Baldwin had at least 5 receptions.

NFL CHOICE TRENDS:

-- The Dolphins are 0-13 ATS (-16.50 ppg) since Jan 03, 2010 off a game as a favorite where they threw for at least 250 yards.

-- The Eagles are 11-0 OU (10.27 ppg) since Sep 29, 2013 after a loss where they allowed more points than expected.

TOP NFL PLAYER OU TREND:

-- Teams are 0-7 OU since October 2011 coming off a home game where Darren Sproles had at least 40 receiving yards.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Bears are 10-0 OU (9.55 ppg) since Nov 20, 2011 after a win in which they were outgained by their opponent.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Panthers are 0-10 OU (-7.65 ppg) since October 2006 as a home favorite off a game as a favorite where they allowed more points than expected.

SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:

-- Teams that have thrown at least 3 TD passes in back-to-back games are 149-116-5 OU. Active on Washington and New Orleans.

NFL BIBLE ATS ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Lions are 0-11 ATS on grass when the line is within 3 of pick and they are off a multiple-point win.

NFL BIBLE O/U ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Rams are 0-8 OU when one game under 500 after Week 8.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 17
January 2, 2016

The ‘under’ produced a 9-7 record last weekend and that record could’ve been better if it wasn’t for some meaningless scores. For those who had the ‘over’ in the Chicago-Tampa Bay and Houston-Tennessee games, we’re glad to see you received some belated holiday gifts this past Sunday. And for those on the other side of those results, we apologize and hope you keep grinding. On the season, the ‘under’ stands at 119-117-4.

Week 17 Approach

Handicapping the final week of the regular season is often a toss-up for both sides and totals.

WEEK 17 TOTAL RESULTS (2010-2014)
Year Over/Under
2014 6-10
2013 6-10
2012 8-8
2011 9-7
2010 7-9

Based on the above, you can see that the ‘under’ has gone 44-36 (55%) that past five seasons and that includes a 20-12 (63%) mark the last two years. Based on playoff implications, you have five meaningless matchups on tap for Week 17 and it’s fair to say it’s six.

New Orleans at Atlanta
Washington at Dallas
Detroit at Chicago
Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants
St. Louis at San Francisco
Tennessee at Indianapolis (Colts have an outside shot to make the playoffs)

My thinking with these games is that most coaches will just roll the ball out and let the teams go after it offensively.

Last Sunday, we had three meaningless games and the ‘over’ went 3-0 albeit the Bears-Bucs winner was fortunate:
Detroit 32 San Francisco 17 (Over 49)
New Orleans 38 Jacksonville 27 (Over 53)
Chicago 25 Tampa Bay 21 (Over 44)

Based on the numbers for Week 17, I’d probably toss out any leans on the Redskins-Cowboys and Rams-49ers, but the three other games all have two things in common. They have capable quarterbacks and defensive units that are suspect, which is why two of the totals are listed in the fifties.

Divisional Angles

Here is my quick handicap on nine of the 10 other meaningful matchups for Week 17.

N.Y. Jets at Buffalo: The Bills dropped the Jets 22-17 in the first meeting and the ‘under’ (41 ½) connected due to miscues by the New York offense. This total opened 44 and has dropped to 41. The Jets defense has played better and faces a short-handed attack for the Bills.

New England at Miami: The ‘under’ is 5-2 the last seven in this series and both clubs enter this game banged up. The Patriots have seen the ‘over’ go 4-1 in their last five but Miami (19.3 PPG) can’t score lately and I don’t expect that to change Sunday.

Tampa Bay at Carolina: The Panthers blasted the Buccaneers 37-23 in Week 4 and the ‘over’ (40 ½) hit easily. This week’s total (47) seems inflated and hard to imagine Carolina pressing the issue once they get the lead against an inconsistent Tampa Bay offense (22.1 PPG).

Baltimore at Cincinnati: The ‘over’ is 3-1 the last four in this series but those results should be overlooked with backup quarterbacks on display this week. Bengals are 2-0 to the ‘under’ with A.J. McCarron under center while the Ravens haven’t are averaging 13.3 PPG their last four.

Jacksonville at Houston: Possible shootout here based on the defensive numbers for the Jaguars (27.9 PPG) and Houston does get Brian Hoyer back at QB. These teams haven’t seen a total this high since 2011 and that also tells me to lean to the high side.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland: Prior to last week’s lackluster effort and Baltimore, the Steelers offense was rolling. They should get back on track this weekend versus the Cleveland secondary but can the Browns do enough with Austin Davis? The ‘under’ has cashed in five of the last six encounters between the pair.

Oakland at Kansas City: This series was once a great ‘under’ bet but the ‘over’ has cashed in four straight meetings. The Chiefs quietly own the second best scoring defense (18 PPG) in the league and the Raiders have been surprisingly better defensively on the road (22.9 PPG) than at home (27 PPG).

San Diego at Denver: Low total (41) for this series and hard to lean high based on the ‘under’ results (5-1-1) for Denver at home this season and their style under backup QB Brock Osweiler. The ‘under’ is 5-1 in the last six head-to-head battles and that includes Denver’s 17-3 win at San Diego in Week 13.

Seattle at Arizona: The Cardinals ripped the Seahawks 39-32 in mid-November and that total closed at 43 ½. This week’s number is 47 and many believe Seattle could lay up in this game knowing that it’s in the playoffs already and will be on the road next weekend regardless of this outcome. Arizona’s defense has only surrendered 12.2 PPG in its last five, which has helped the ‘under’ go 4-1.

Under the Lights

We’ve reached the final primetime game of the regular season as the Vikings and Packers square off for the NFC North division. The ‘under’ has gone 29-21 (58%) in night games this season and both Minnesota (2-1) and Green Bay (3-2) have helped that cause.

This game opened at 48 ½ and has dropped down to 45 ½ as of Saturday morning. In the first meeting between the pair, Green Bay ran past Minnesota 30-13 on the road and the ‘under’ (45) connected.

The Packers were known to be a great ‘over’ bet in recent seasons but the club has watched the ‘under’ go 10-5 this season and that includes a 6-1 mark at Lambeau Field. Minnesota has also leaned to the ‘under’ (10-4-1) this season but as I noted in last week’s piece, the Vikings have put up some crooked numbers on offense under Zimmer towards the end of the season and the ‘over’ is on a 3-1 run entering this game.

The last two games between the pair at Lambeau Field have both went ‘over’ the number and Green Bay has put up 23-plus points in nine straight home meetings against the Vikings.

For those looking for seasonal angles on the last game of the regular season, listed below are the matchups dating back to 2008.

2014 – Pittsburgh 27 vs. Cincinnati 17 (Under 49)
2013 – Philadelphia 24 at Dallas 22 (Under 54 ½)
2012 – Washington 28 vs. Dallas 18 (Under 48)
2011 – N.Y. Giants 31 vs. Dallas 14 (Under 48)
2010 – Seattle 16 vs. St. Louis 6 (Under 42 ½)
2009 – N.Y. Jets 37 vs. Cincinnati 0 (Over 33 ½)
2008 – San Diego 52 vs. Denver 21 (Over 50)

The ‘under’ has cashed in five straight SNF Finales and six of the last seven games that have been flexed to the Sunday Night spot have been decided by double digits.

Only one road team has manage to win this game and the Eagles barely defeated the Tony Romo-less Cowboys.

Fearless Predictions

The holiday weekend cost us $220 and the Bears-Buccaneers loss was tough to stomach plus the Falcons didn’t help the cause -- again. It wasn’t a disaster of a season but certainly not profitable ($1,020) after 16 weeks. Let’s finish strong and head to the playoffs. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck and Happy New Year!

Best Over: Jacksonville-Houston 45 ½

Best Under: Baltimore-Cincinnati 41 ½

Best Team Total: Over 29 Steelers

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 44 New Orleans-Atlanta
Under 56 New England-Miami
Under 46 ½ St. Louis-San Francisco

[StarDust Bum]

Week 17 Tip Sheet
January 2, 2016

Jets (-3, 41 ½) at Bills – 1:00 PM EST

One year ago, Rex Ryan led the Jets to a 4-12 record and last place in the AFC East. Ryan was let go and one season later, New York is one victory away from clinching its first playoff berth since 2010. The former Jets’ coach crossed over inside the division to patrol the Bills’ sideline in 2015, as Buffalo looks to play the role of spoiler. The Bills (7-8 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) go for back-to-back wins for just the second time this season after holding off the Cowboys last Sunday, 16-6 as 6 ½-point favorites. Buffalo knocked off New York in its first meeting at Met Life Stadium, 22-17, as the Bills built a 22-3 lead prior to a pair of Jets’ second half touchdowns.

Following a 5-5 start to the season, New York (10-5 SU, 8-5-2 ATS) has run off five straight victories, capped off by a 26-20 overtime triumph over New England last Sunday. The Jets have stepped up defensively during this winning streak, allowing 20 points or less in each of these victories, while cashing the ‘under’ in each of their past two road games. New York has lost the previous two visits to Ralph Wilson Stadium, as the Jets were blown out by the Bills in Detroit last November with the game moved out of Buffalo due to poor weather.

Jaguars at Texans (-6 ½, 45 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

The AFC South race has been a fight to the finish, but Houston (8-7 SU, 8-7 ATS) controls its own destiny heading into Week 17. The Texans attempt to sweep the Jaguars after winning at Jacksonville in mid-October, 31-20 as 2 ½-point underdogs. Quarterback Brian Hoyer made his first start of the season for Houston in that win, throwing for 293 yards and three touchdowns. Hoyer returns to the starting lineup after missing the last two games with a concussion, as Houston picked up a pair of road divisional victories at Indianapolis and Tennessee.

For the fifth consecutive season, Jacksonville (5-10 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) has lost at least 10 games, coming off a 38-27 at New Orleans. The game wasn’t as close as the final score indicated as the Jaguars fell behind, 24-6 at halftime to suffer their sixth road loss in seven tries. Jacksonville has drilled the ‘over’ in four of the previous five contests, while hitting the ‘over’ in five of seven games away from Everbank Field. Gus Bradley’s team has lost six consecutive road games against AFC South foes with the last away divisional victory coming at Houston in 2013.

Steelers (-11, 47) at Browns – 1:00 PM EST

Pittsburgh (9-6 SU, 8-6-1 ATS) had the inside track at a Wild Card berth heading into Week 16 at lowly Baltimore. However, the banged-up Ravens stunned the Steelers as 11-point home underdogs, 20-17, limiting Pittsburgh to its lowest point total since a Week 8 home loss to Cincinnati (16-10). Pittsburgh’s four-game ‘over’ streak came to an end in Week 16, as Mike Tomlin’s team looks to bust out of a 1-3 SU/ATS road slump dating back to October. The Steelers routed the Browns in their first meeting at Heinz Field by a 30-9 count in November, as Ben Roethlisberger threw three touchdown passes off the bench.

The Browns (3-12 SU, 6-9 ATS) are tied with the Titans for the worst record in football, as a Cleveland loss coupled with a Tennessee victory will give the Browns the top pick in May’s NFL Draft. Former first round pick Johnny Manziel won’t play in the season finale as he is sidelined with a concussion, opening the door for Austin Davis to start at quarterback. Mike Pettine’s squad has won just twice at home this season, beating Tennessee and San Francisco, while allowing 70 points in two divisional home losses to Baltimore and Cincinnati.

Raiders at Chiefs (-7, 43 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

The best turnaround story in the NFL this season comes out of Kansas City (10-5 SU, 8-7 ATS) as the Chiefs go for their 10th straight win following a 1-5 start. Andy Reid’s club has allowed 14 points or less seven times in this span, but the Chiefs have failed in their last two home wins over the Browns and Chargers as a double-digit favorite. Kansas City has dominated in the role of a single-digit favorite, cashing in seven of eight opportunities, including in a 34-20 triumph at Oakland last month as three-point chalk.

The Raiders (7-8 SU, 7-8 ATS) have made plenty of strides in Jack Del Rio’s first season as head coach by winning four games away from the Black Hole. Oakland has alternated wins and losses in each of the past six contests, coming off a 23-20 overtime victory over San Diego on Christmas Eve, but failed to cash as four-point favorites. The Raiders own a solid 4-1 ATS record in its past five road contests, while looking to finish off a three-game road sweep inside the division after winning at San Diego and Denver this season.

Seahawks at Cardinals (-6, 47) – 4:25 PM EST

The top two teams in the NFC West are heading to the playoffs, as this matchup only has seeding ramifications. Arizona (13-2 SU, 9-6 ATS) has an outside chance of grabbing home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs, needing a victory along with a Carolina loss to Tampa Bay. The Cardinals topped the 31-point mark for the ninth time this season in last Sunday’s 38-8 rout of the Packers as six-point favorites. Bruce Arians’ squad covered at home for the first time since Week 3 against San Francisco, while the Cardinals have gone ‘under’ the total in three of the past four games at University of Phoenix Stadium.

The two-time defending NFC champion Seahawks (9-6 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) could end up finishing with the sixth seed if they lose at Arizona. Seattle won both meetings last season with Arizona, but the Cardinals knocked off the Seahawks at CenturyLink Field in mid-November, 39-32 as three-point underdogs. Pete Carroll’s team had its five-game winning streak snapped in last Sunday’s 23-17 home loss to the Rams as 11 ½-point favorites. The Seahawks have won four consecutive away games, while limiting each opponent to 12 points or less.

[StarDust Bum]

Vikings, Packers meet in GB
January 1, 2015


MINNESOTA VIKINGS (10-5) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (10-5)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Green Bay -3, Total: 45.5

The Vikings and Packers will be battling for the NFC North when the two teams meet in Green Bay on Sunday.

The Vikings have looked unstoppable over the past two weeks, winning 38-17 at home against the Bears and following it up with a 49-17 victory over the Giants in Minnesota a week later. The team has won three of its past five games SU and has covered in three straight contests and four of its past five. It does, however, face a Packers team that won the last meeting between these teams 30-13.

Green Bay is not the same team it was in that Nov. 22 game, though. The Packers looked miserable in a 38-8 loss against the Cardinals in Week 16, turning the ball over four times and throwing for just 155 yards. Still, Green Bay has gone 8-1-1 in its past 10 meetings with Minnesota and will be feeling confident against a team it has dominated over the years.

There are trends that favor both teams in this one, as the Vikings are 7-0 ATS after playing a game at home this season. The Packers, meanwhile, are 16-7 ATS in games played on a grass field over the past two seasons. The Vikings are on fire recently and it has been their play on both sides of the ball that is allowing the team to win games so convincingly. Minnesota has allowed just 34 points over the past two weeks and will need to find a way to limit a Packers team that is struggling offensively coming into this one. If the Vikings can keep Aaron Rodgers in line then they should have a very good shot to win this one.

Offensively, Teddy Bridgewater has been avoiding mistakes over the past few weeks, throwing for six touchdowns with no picks in the past three games. He’ll need to keep playing smart football against a Packers defense that held the Vikings to just 13 last meeting. Adrian Peterson struggled in that game, rushing for just 45 yards on 13 carries. He did find score a touchdown, but he also lost a fumble. He’ll need to be a lot more effective on the ground on Sunday.

Green Bay was completely embarrassed in Arizona last week and Aaron Rodgers played one of the worst games of his career. He was just 15-for-28 with 151 yards and threw for just one touchdown with one interception. He also lost two fumbles in the game and just cannot afford to turn the ball over so much for his team. A lot of it wasn’t Rodgers’ fault, though. His offensive line did not provide much protection and it will need to be a lot better on Sunday.

Defensively, the team will need to be a lot better as well. The Packers allowed 121 rushing yards and a touchdown on just 26 carries in Week 16. They’ll be going up against the best running back in football in this division-deciding contest, so they will need to figure out a way to stop the rushing attack. If Adrian Peterson runs all over Green Bay then the team will have a tough time of defeating a Vikings group that has not been beating itself lately.