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Well I barely won yesterdays game as I had under 49.5 and it landed on 49. Ill take it. Here is my take on today's Poinsettia Bowl between Northern Illinois and Boise State.
The Boise State Broncos come in off a four loss season, which is not something that they are used to. They struggled down the stretch losing two of their last three games with the two losses coming at home vs New Mexico and Air Force. Heck, they didn’t even reach the Mountain West Conference Title game this year. This is really uncharted territory for this team. The biggest issue for the for the Broncos during their 3-3 stretch to end the year was a defense that really struggled. In their 5-1 start to the year the Broncos allowed just 12 ppg, but in their last 6 game they have given up 30.7 ppg. The one thing they did do good all year was stopping the run, ranking 12th in that department, giving up just 117.7 ypg on the ground for the year. That is key as the Huskies are a running team. Offensively, they have had little troubles this year as they come in ranked 18th in in the nation in total yards and 16th in scoring, putting up 37.8 ppg.
The Northern Illinois Huskies had a decent year as they come in at 8-5 overall, but they did finish 0-2 down the stretch, which included a 34-14 loss to Bowling Green in the MAC Title game. They were 14 point dogs in that game, yet couldn’t cover the spread. The should have QB Ryan Graham back for this game after he missed the MAC Title game. Still the offense goes through mostly Joel Bouagnon, who ran for 1270 yards and 18 TDs this year. Therein lies the problem for the Huskies as the strength of their offense will be going up against the strength of the Broncos defense. The Huskies are 29th in rushing but just 64th in passing. On defense they have been very average this year as they check in at 66th overall and 54th in points allowed, giving up 25.5. They do struggle vs the pass, allowing 233.4 ypg, which is 78th in the nation. That weakness goes up against the strength of the Boise offense.
Strength on strength vs strength on weakness. That will be the theme of this game. The Northern Illinois Huskies are a running team. They average 47.2 rushes per game and that plays into the strength of the Broncos as they come in ranked 12th in the nation in rushing yards allowed, giving up just 117 ypg on the ground so far. If the Huskies can’t run then they will be put in many longdown situations and they don’t have the passing game to get them out of it. Now on the other side of the ball we have a Boise State offense that ranks 20th in the nation in passing (304 ypg), going up against a Huskie defense that ranks 78th in the nation vs the pass (233.4 ypg). The Broncos have clear edges on both sides of the ball, plus let’s also note that the Broncos were +70 ypg vs bowl teams, scoring 29 ppg vs those teams, while the Huskies were -74 ypg vs bowl teams, putting up just 21 ppg in those games. I look for Boise to finish their year with a DD bowl win.
Play Boise State -7.5 over Northern Illinois
GLA
The Boise State Broncos come in off a four loss season, which is not something that they are used to. They struggled down the stretch losing two of their last three games with the two losses coming at home vs New Mexico and Air Force. Heck, they didn’t even reach the Mountain West Conference Title game this year. This is really uncharted territory for this team. The biggest issue for the for the Broncos during their 3-3 stretch to end the year was a defense that really struggled. In their 5-1 start to the year the Broncos allowed just 12 ppg, but in their last 6 game they have given up 30.7 ppg. The one thing they did do good all year was stopping the run, ranking 12th in that department, giving up just 117.7 ypg on the ground for the year. That is key as the Huskies are a running team. Offensively, they have had little troubles this year as they come in ranked 18th in in the nation in total yards and 16th in scoring, putting up 37.8 ppg.
The Northern Illinois Huskies had a decent year as they come in at 8-5 overall, but they did finish 0-2 down the stretch, which included a 34-14 loss to Bowling Green in the MAC Title game. They were 14 point dogs in that game, yet couldn’t cover the spread. The should have QB Ryan Graham back for this game after he missed the MAC Title game. Still the offense goes through mostly Joel Bouagnon, who ran for 1270 yards and 18 TDs this year. Therein lies the problem for the Huskies as the strength of their offense will be going up against the strength of the Broncos defense. The Huskies are 29th in rushing but just 64th in passing. On defense they have been very average this year as they check in at 66th overall and 54th in points allowed, giving up 25.5. They do struggle vs the pass, allowing 233.4 ypg, which is 78th in the nation. That weakness goes up against the strength of the Boise offense.
Strength on strength vs strength on weakness. That will be the theme of this game. The Northern Illinois Huskies are a running team. They average 47.2 rushes per game and that plays into the strength of the Broncos as they come in ranked 12th in the nation in rushing yards allowed, giving up just 117 ypg on the ground so far. If the Huskies can’t run then they will be put in many longdown situations and they don’t have the passing game to get them out of it. Now on the other side of the ball we have a Boise State offense that ranks 20th in the nation in passing (304 ypg), going up against a Huskie defense that ranks 78th in the nation vs the pass (233.4 ypg). The Broncos have clear edges on both sides of the ball, plus let’s also note that the Broncos were +70 ypg vs bowl teams, scoring 29 ppg vs those teams, while the Huskies were -74 ypg vs bowl teams, putting up just 21 ppg in those games. I look for Boise to finish their year with a DD bowl win.
Play Boise State -7.5 over Northern Illinois
GLA
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