NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 16 (Thursday, December 24 - Monday, December 28)

[Udog]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Westgate Super Contest (1,727 entrants-- prize pool is $2.5M)
Most popular picks 2-7 in Week 15 season record: 47-44-2

Redskins (+3) were 4th most popular pick; they played last night- W.

7) Browns +12 (335)-- People showing faith in big underdogs this week.

6) Rams +13.5 (353)-- St Louis lost its last ten visits to King County.

5) Patriots -3 (411)-- Don't get many chances at New England -3.

3) Vikings -4.5 (431)-- Going to be a frigid night in the Twin Cities. .

2) Steelers -10 (437)-- Jimmy Clausen is 0-3 against spread this year.

1) Broncos -3.5 (446)-- Denver could actually still miss the playoffs.

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Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Some notes on today's NFL games........

13) Bears (5-9) @ Buccaneers (6-8)-- Lovie Smith was 81-63 in nine years as Chicago's coach, winning NFC in third year, going 1-1 in playoffs next six years so they fired him. Can Smith's Tampa Bay players get him some revenge today?

12) Panthers (14-0) @ Falcons (7-7)--- Carolina (-8.5) spanked Falcons 38-0 at home two weeks ago, outgaining them 424-230 in game that was 28-0 at half. Atlanta is 1-9 vs spread in its last 10 games.

11) Cowboys (4-10) @ Bills (6-8)-- Kellen Moore gets his first NFL start in what is expected to be rainy, warm day in Orchard Park. Bills lost four of last five games; they won 33-17/30-21 in two home games since Halloween.

10) Jaguars (5-9) @ Saints (5-9)-- Saints lost six of last seven tilts thanks to a hideous defense; they've allowed 35.3 ppg in last seven games. Saints are 3-4 at home, 1-3-1 as home favorite- they allowed 166.4 rushing ypg the last five weeks.

9) 49ers (4-10) @ Lions (5-9)-- Detroit is 4-2 since its bye; only one of the wins was by more than eight points. 49ers are 2-8 vs spread in its 10 losses, 4-7 vs the spread as an underdog of 6+ points.

8) Browns (3-11) @ Chiefs (9-5)-- Red-hot Chiefs won last eight games (7-1 against spread) are 2-3 as home favorites, with wins by 10-8-7 points. Cleveland lost eight of last nine games (1-7 vs spread in last eight); they're 2-5 as road underdogs, losing last four away games, all by 17+ points.

7) Colts (6-8) @ Dolphins (5-9)-- Indy lost last three games overall by 35-35-6 points, scoring two TDs on last 36 drives- they've run for just 60 ypg in five post-bye games. Miami lost six of last eight games (1-7 vs spread); they're 2-3 as favorite- its last two wins were by total of three points.

6) Patriots (12-2) @ Jets (8-6)-- Jets are +18 in turnovers in eight wins, -13 in their six losses. Pats won eight of last nine series games; five of last seven were decided by 3 or less points. NE won three of last four visits here, with last two decided by total of four points.

5) Texans (7-7) @ Titans (6-8)--Tennessee lost five of its last six games (0-5-1 vs spread); they're 1-9 vs spread when scoring less than 33, a figure Texans allowed twice all year. Underdogs are 5-3-1 vs spread in AFC South divisional games, 1-0 at home.

4) Packers (10-4) @ Cardinals (12-2)-- Arizona won its last eight games; they're 2-4 as home favorite, with only SU loss to Rams in Week 4- Cards were -3 in turnovers in both their losses. Under is 8-3 in last 11 Green Bay games, 3-1 in four Cardinal tilts.

3) Rams (6-8) @ Seahawks (9-5)-- St Louis is 0-5 vs the spread outdoors this year- their only road cover was Week 4 win at Arizona. Rams are 0-10 in Seattle since they beat Seahawks 27-20 in '04 playoff game, when both of them got to playoffs at 8-8.

2) Steelers (9-5) @ Ravens (4-10)-- Ravens are down to #3 QB Clausen; in his three starts this season, his offense was outscored 21-20 by other teams' defense, special teams. In last three games, Pitt outscored foes 62-13 in second half; they're 5-1 as favorite this season.

1) Giants (6-8) @ Vikings (9-5)-- Minnesota is playng for playoff position; Giants are without Beckham- they got eliminated last night when Redskins won NFC East. NFC East non-divisional road dogs are 4-8 vs spread; NFC North home favorites are 8-4.

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, December 28

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Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Bengals at Broncos
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If the Bengals win, they clinch a bye. If the Broncos win, they clinch a playoff spot.


Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-3.5, 39)

Both starting quarterbacks have been lost to injury, but the stakes are still high in Monday night's clash between the visiting Cincinnati Bengals and the Denver Broncos. Despite losing starter Andy Dalton to a fractured right thumb two weeks ago, the Bengals can wrap up the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye in the postseason with a victory.

Cincinnati, which holds a one-game edge over Denver and is one game behind New England for the best record in the AFC, can also wrap up the AFC North with a win. "It will be fun, it's a great opportunity," Bengals coach Marvin Lewis said. "Both teams have earned it, and we've got to have at it." Brock Osweiler will make his sixth consecutive start in place of Peyton Manning for Denver, which blew a 17-point halftime lead in a 34-27 defeat at Pittsburgh last weekend. The Broncos still have a chance at the No. 2 seed but also had their lead cut to one game over Kansas City in the AFC West.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Broncos opened as 3.5-point home favorites and were bet down to -3, but have come back up to the opening number. The total opened at 41 and has since come down 2-points to now sit at 39.

INJURY REPORT:

Bengals - WR A. Green (probable Monday, back), T J. Fisher (questionable Monday, concussion), S G. Iloka (questionable Monday, knee), WR M. Alford (questionable Monday, personal), TE T. Eifert (out Monday, concussion), QB A. Dalton (out indefinitely, thumb).

Broncos - RB C. Anderson (probable Monday, back), QB B. Osweiler (probable Monday, shoulder), S T. Ward (questionable Monday, ankle), S O. Bolden (questionable Monday, groin), S D. Stewart (questionable Monday, hamstring), LB L. McCray (questionable Monday, hamstring), QB P. Manning (out Monday, foot).

WEATHER REPORT: It will be a chilly night in Denver. It will be a clear night, but temperatures will be in the low 20's to high teens for the game.

POWER RANKINGS: Bengals (-3) - Broncos (-3) + home field (-3) = Broncos -3

CAPPERS SAY: "Despite the fact that TE Tyler Eifert didn?t play and AJ Green limped off the field early, backup QB AJ McCarron looked solid even with a VERY conservative gameplan at San Francisco. As for Denver, after going 8-8 on third downs while racking up 27 first half points against the Steelers, Brock Osweiler?s second half was ugly: 7-26 for 82 yards, with only one third down conversion."

ABOUT THE BENGALS (11-3, 11-2-1 ATS, 7-7 O/U): A.J. McCarron threw for two touchdowns and two interceptions in relief of Dalton in a loss to Pittsburgh, but was solid in a 24-14 win at San Francisco with 192 yards on 15-of-21 despite the absence of star tight end Tyler Eifert and limited nature of top wideout A.J. Green. With Eifert set to miss a second straight game due to a concussion and Cincinnati's ground game struggling the past two weeks, McCarron will have his hands full with the league's top-ranked defense. The Bengals are no slouches on the other side of the ball, allowing a league-low 17.4 points per game.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (10-4, 8-6 ATS, 5-8-1 O/U): Osweiler threw for three touchdowns and ran for another in the first half alone against Pittsburgh, but for the third straight week he was unable to put any points on the scoreboard in the second half as Denver lost its second in a row. The running game has not been much of a factor all season, but Emmanuel Sanders came alive with 10 catches for 181 yards and a touchdown and fellow wideout Demaryius Thomas had a pair of scoring receptions. The Broncos were torched by Pittsburgh's passing game, but they are tied for the league lead with 47 sacks and feature the No. 1 run defense.

TRENDS:

* Bengals are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games.
* Broncos are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 Monday games.
* Under is 4-1 in Bengals last 5 vs. AFC.
* Under is 5-1-1 in Broncos last 7 home games.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-seven percent of bettors are backing the Broncos in this Monday night matchup. As for the total, 61 percent of wagers are on the over.

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[Udog]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Westgate Super Contest (1,727 entrants-- prize pool is $2.5M)
Most popular picks in Week 16 season record: 50-46-2

Redskins (+3) were 4th most popular pick; they played Saturday night- W.

7) Browns +12 (335)-- People showing faith in big underdogs this week- W.

6) Rams +13.5 (353)-- St Louis lost its last ten visits to King County- W.

5) Patriots -3 (411)-- Don't get many chances at New England -3- L.

3) Vikings -4.5 (431)-- Going to be a frigid night in the Twin Cities.- W.

2) Steelers -10 (437)-- Jimmy Clausen is 0-3 against spread this year- L.

1) Broncos -3.5 (446)-- Denver could actually still miss the playoffs.

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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday........

13) Rams 23, Seahawks 17-- St Louis sweeps Seahawks for first time in 11 years; at 7-8, Rams are finishing strong, but when they go 3-1 vs Arizona/Seattle and miss the playoffs, its an empty feeling. St Louis was +3 in turnovers; last two weeks, teams with +2 or better turnover ratio are 14-0 SU.

12) Bears 26, Buccaneers 21-- Tampa Bay faded down stretch, losing four of last five games; in those five games, Bucs started 37 drives 80+ yards from goal line, their opponents only 20. Bad special teams, lousy on 3rd down (9 of last 29). Up 14-13 in third quarter with ball in red zone, Winston threw an awful INT, giving up an easy FG. Chicago dominated game from that point on.

11) Falcons 20, Panthers 13-- First loss of season for Carolina; not sure it is worst thing, takes some pressure off- they can rest banged-up guys next week. Atlanta was eliminated when the Giants got beat in Minnesota last night- they started season 5-0, so missing the playoffs.makes this season a crummy one.

10) Bills 16, Cowboys 6-- Buffalo hosts the Jets next week, with chance to knock Rex Ryan's old team out of playoffs. Dallas is 1-10 with backup QB starting this year, and they used three of them. Broncos (Week 5) are only team this year to win a game they didn't score an offensive TD in, when other team did- Broncos also won a game in Week 1 when neither team scored an offensive TD.

9) Saints 38, Jaguars 27-- New Orleans had 10 drives; five TDs, three FGs, not good day for Jaguars, who have now lost four of last five games. If you're the Saints, would you trade your coach for a draft pick and if so, how high a pick would you want? Lot of rumors out there that the Dolphins/Colts are interested in Sean Payton.

8) Lions 32, 49ers 17-- Detroit won five of last seven games; if they're smart, they get rid of Jim Caldwell anyway, hire a defensive-minded coach who will keep OC Cooter on his staff. 49ers are 2-9 vs spread in its 11 losses, 4-8 vs the spread as an underdog of 6+ points. They must've really not liked Jim Harbaugh to fire him.

7) Chiefs 17, Browns 13-- Chiefs won last nine games (7-2 against spread) have made playoffs despite starting season 1-5. Cleveland lost nine of last ten games (2-8 against spread) as another dismal season comes to an end. This is good time to point out that all 16 games next weekend will be divisional rivalry games.

6) Colts 18, Dolphins 12-- Miami lost seven of last nine games (1-8 vs spread); their next coach will be a big name- they had ball in red zone five times in this game, scored only 12 points. Indy is still alive for playoff spot; they host hapless Titans, Houston plays Jacksonville. Still baffled how Ryan Tannehill never gets benched.

5) Jets 26, Patriots 20 OT-- I'm pretty sure last NFL coach who chose to kick off to start OT was Marty Mornhinweg, who got fired shortly thereafter; if defense keeps Jets out of EZ on first drive, no one says a word. They didn't.

Tom Brady used to date actress Bridget Moynihan- they had a kid together- the young man's name is John Edward Thomas, as in J-E-T. Not a coincidence. Apparently Ms Moynihan holds a grudge-- hope she bet the Jets in this game.

4) Texans 34, Titans 6-- Houston won six of its last eight games, despite using five QBs this season- they could be tough out in AFC playoffs. Tennessee lost six of its last seven games (0-6-1 vs spread); they're 1-10 vs spread when scoring less than 33 points. How happy will Jerry Jones be when Brandon Weeden starts a playoff game?

3) Cardinals 38, Packers 8-- Next week's Sunday night game: Vikings-Packers, so for second week in row, a game in frigid conditions gets moved from noon to 7:30pm local time kickoff. Does no one care about fans who buy tickets? Packers' OL was useless in this game. Arizona won last nine games; they were -3 in turnovers in both their losses- they're the best team in the NFL right now.

2) Ravens 20, Steelers 17-- Steelers now need to win in Cleveland and get help from Buffalo next week to make playoffs. Ravens found a competent backup QB in Mallett, who was cut by Houston when he missed plane to Miami game, after he took a day off when Hoyer was named starter this summer.

1) Vikings 49, Giants 17-- Tank job by Giants, who were eliminated when Redskins won Saturday night. If you owned the Giants and it was your money being spent, do you bring Tom Coughlin back as coach? It was pretty much assumed in the media last summer that if he missed the playoffs this year it was sayonara.

And if you do fire a coach who won two Super Bowls, who do you bring in who will be better? Do you fire the GM, who hasn't drafted well? Interesting questions.

[Udog]

Packers open as 3-point home faves versus Vikings with NFC North title on the line

At 12-3 against the spread (10-5 straight up), the Minnesota Vikings are the second best spread wager in the NFL.

We’ve finally hit the last week of the regular season in the NFL, and with a host of games holding playoff ramifications, no less. Perhaps the most intriguing matchup will take place on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field, between NFC North rivals Green Bay and Minnesota.

Both teams have already punched their postseason tickets. But the winner of this game wins the division, which comes with the No. 3 seed and a home game in the wild-card round of the playoffs. Both teams also enter this game following Week 16 blowouts, though they were on opposite sides of those results.

Green Bay (10-5 SU, 9-6 SU) went to Arizona as a 6-point underdog and got waxed by the Cardinals 38-8 Sunday. The loss halted a 4-1 SU and ATS surge by the Packers, including 3-0 SU and ATS in their previous three games.

On the flip side, in the Sunday night game, Minnesota manhandled a New York Giants squad that already knew it had nothing to play for, due to the Washington Redskins’ victory at Philadelphia on Saturday. The Vikings (10-5 SU, 12-3 ATS), with the second-best spread-covering record in the league, plowed to a 49-17 home victory laying 7 points.

The Packers and Vikings met Nov. 22 in Minnesota, with the Pack rolling 30-13 as 1-point pups, the win that started Green Bay’s 4-1 SU and ATS streak. John Lester, senior lines manager for Bookmaker.eu, had to hold off on posting a line, waiting to see how Minnesota comes out of the Sunday night game injury-wise, but he expects Green Bay to be a solid home favorite.

“A division title will be on the line, so we’re in for a great Week 17 bout,” Lester said. “The first matchup was completely one-sided, as the Vikings got behind big early, and they aren’t a team that is built to win from behind. But quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has really looked like a more confident player over the past couple of weeks. If everything goes accordingly Sunday night, the Packers will open around touchdown chalk.”

Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas, was seeing things tighter than that.

“I thought about opening this line at 5 or so, but the way Green Bay played against Arizona, and with the Packers having only two quality wins all year, I'll settle around 3 points,” Avello said. “The Vikings haven't beat the Pack in their last five meetings, but this one has more meaning than the last five combined.”

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-4)

Arizona (13-2 SU, 9-6 ATS) is already guaranteed no worse than the No. 2 seed and a first-round playoff bye. But if somehow Tampa Bay beats Carolina in an early game next Sunday, the Cards could get the top seed by winning their late afternoon game against Seattle.

The Cardinals drubbed Green Bay 38-8 Sunday as 6-point home chalk for their ninth consecutive SU victory (5-4 ATS).

Seattle (9-6 SU, 7-7-1 ATS), locked into a wild-card playoff spot, was a hefty 11.5-point home fave Sunday against St. Louis, but couldn’t find a way to win, let alone cover. The Seahawks trailed 16-0 in the second quarter and ultimately lost 23-17.

Back in mid-November, Arizona went to Seattle as a 3-point pup and held on for a 39-32 outright victory.

“In meeting No. 1 this year, the Cards showed confidence as they jumped out to a big lead, fell behind and then rallied for the victory,” Avello said. “There's a changing of the guard in the NFC West, and the ‘Hawks need to play flawless to win in the desert.”

Lester pointed out that, should Carolina win, Arizona has nothing to play for.

“There was some discussion among our team to make the Cardinals a bit higher favorite, but considering there’s a chance they could sit some personnel, we settled on -4,” Lester said. “Seattle is also already in the second season and could do the same, but we aren’t anticipating that. Early money came in on the underdog, and we moved to -3 within the first half hour.”

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)

Now that Carolina has lost, Kansas City is tied with Arizona for the longest active winning streak in the NFL. The Chiefs (10-5 SU, 8-7 ATS) started out 1-5 SU and ATS, but they haven’t lost since. On Sunday, they won their ninth in a row (7-2 ATS) fending off Cleveland 17-13, though K.C. fell well short at the betting window as an 11.5-point home fave.

The Chiefs have locked up at least a wild-card bid, but could still catch or even overtake Denver and win the AFC West.

Oakland (7-8 SU and ATS) has been hit-and-miss all season, but is still far better than last year’s squad, which dropped its first 10 games en route to a 3-13 SU mark. On Thursday night, the Raiders squeaked by San Diego 23-20 in overtime, just short of cashing as a 4-point fave.

“Even though the Chiefs have clinched a playoff berth, we don’t think they’ll be diverting from the norm in Week 17, especially considering their norm is vanilla,” Lester said. “The Raiders have been a popular play among the public recently, and this spread will probably shift south at some point. I’d be hard-pressed to bet against K.C. at the moment, with the way that defense is playing.”

Indeed, during their current run, the Chiefs have held seven opponents to 14 points or less. But Avello expects a game effort from Oakland.

“Unlike season-ending games where teams have nothing to play for and just want to call it a year, the Raiders will not be experimenting and will bring the entire arsenal,” he said. “A 6- to 7-point spread should be about right here, with K.C.’s home-field advantage.”

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos

If Denver (10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS) doesn’t take care of business tonight at home against Cincinnati, it could be fighting for its playoff life against the Chargers. Recent performances certainly don’t bode well for the Broncos, who lost at home to Oakland in an uninspired Week 14 performance, then blew a 27-13 halftime lead at Pittsburgh in Week 15, losing 34-27 as 7.5-point pups.

San Diego (4-11 SU, 7-8 ATS) has a record that could easily be far better. The Chargers have lost seven games by a touchdown or less, including four by four points or less. That included last Thursday night’s 23-20 overtime setback catching 4 points at Oakland.

With Denver in the Monday nighter to cap Week 16, the line will have to wait on this contest. And there’s a chance that Peyton Manning might return for the regular-season finale, too.

“The Chargers have quietly been playing good ball the last couple of weeks, actually all year to some extent, but they don’t get any respect from the betting public,” Lester said. “We’ll have to be generous with the Denver side for this afternoon affair.”

Added Avello: “This one might or might not mean a thing, depending on Denver's Monday night outcome. Denver's offense has relied on its defense all year, and that defense is now starting to show signs of wear and tear.”




Football bettors must react quickly to these NFL Week 17 odds

A Green Bay loss means schlepping on the road in the opening round, and as their 38-8 loss at Arizona showed, the Packers are not the same team away from home.

Spread to bet on now

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-3)

Five straight wins, three straight losses, three straight wins. And now a 30-point mail-it-in loss to the Cardinals. What’s going on with the Packers?

Aaron Rodgers says not to worry, that when the real season starts the real Pack will be back. Well, this one qualifies as the real season, because it’s winner-take-all for the NFC title, a No. 3 seed in the playoffs and a home game on wild card weekend.

A GB loss means schlepping on the road in the opening round, and as their 38-8 loss at Arizona showed, the Packers are not the same team away from home. GB is 4-3 ATS at home this season, and this line is not likely to move.

Spread to wait on

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+9)

No one is crying about the injury problems facing the Patriots, but being banged up has had a major impact on New England’s offense. The Patriots have scored 30 points in a game only once (Tennessee) since October, and the offensive line is so hurting that NE has gone to a quick passing attack to protect Tom Brady and has almost completely abandoned the run.

Defenses are starting to adjust. Whether the listless Dolphins – who have lost three straight, five of their last six and haven’t covered a spread since Nov. 15 – can take advantage of the Pats’ issues is anyone’s guess.

New England has struggled in Miami, but this Dolphin team doesn’t seem to have any fight left in it. Lots of moving parts here in an awkward line that could shift as we find out who will play for NE, and who won’t.

Total to watch

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (43)

For all the talk of the Bills being ready to take the next step and finally challenge the Patriots in an AFC East that seems to be owned by New England, it was actually the Jets who have made things interesting this year.

Buffalo can max out at 8-8 this season after going 9-7 pre-Rex Ryan, and for all the talk about Ryan’s defensive acumen, Buffalo has been a below-average defensive team (20th overall).

The Jets, meanwhile, have been the real deal – holding their last five opponents to fewer than 20 points. For comparative purposes, Buffalo won 22-17, in their first meeting.