The Bum's National Football League Week # 16 Rated Plays - Trends - News Etc. !!

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Vegas Money Moves - Week 16
December 25, 2015

All was quiet during a Christmas week in Las Vegas with the exception of the sports books where bettors are fired up and armed with some serious cash after taking over $6 million from the books last Sunday.

I reported on Monday that the books lost around $4 million on Sunday, but through more conversations with other book operators, the losses were much larger -- possibly up to $7 million just in Las Vegas alone.

Bettors crushed the books in Week 15 with an array of winning 7-and-8 team parlays and while it might seem like a good idea to sock away the money for a vacation or pay some bills, most couldn’t wait to the attack Week 16 numbers. They’ve got a few teams they all seem to like in what will be the final Sunday of 2015.

Jason McCormick at Station Casinos says his top six parlay risk teams this week are Carolina, New England, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Kansas City and the Monday night game with Denver and its hard to argue against any of those sides.

The Panthers (10-4 against the spread) look to stay undefeated and are laying less than a touchdown (-6.5) on the road against a Falcons squad Carolina beat 38-0 two weeks ago. The Falcons ended a 0-9 ATS run by covering last week against Jacksonville.

New England (7-5-2 ATS) has won and covered two straight and are laying its third lowest (-3) number of the year at the Jets. The Jets have gone 4-0-1 ATS in its last five meetings against the Patriots, but none of the spreads were this low. Tight end Rob Gronkowski back in the mix has bettors excited.

Bettors love teams that score a lot of points and that’s what Pittsburgh (8-5-1 ATS) is all about lately having scored 30 points or more in its last six games -- winning five of them. The Ravens quarterback situation is awful so laying -10 on the road isn’t a big deal for most.

All the Vikings do is cover (11-3 ATS) and beat up on bad teams, and the Giants certainly qualify as bad. Laying -6 with a disciplined Minnesota squad is no problem for most.

Kansas City (8-6 ATS) has won its past eight games and covered seven of them. They’re blowing teams away weekly while Cleveland has only covered a spread once in its last eight games. Sure, laying 12-points is a no brainer and they’d probably lay -14.5 too.

The only real puzzling choice this week from the public is the Broncos (8-6 ATS) laying -3 on Monday night at home against Cincinnati. The Broncos have lost its last two while the Bengals have gone an NFL best 11-2-1 ATS this year, including a road win last week at san Francisco with A.J. McCarron making his first NFL start.

The fact that the Denver side is already being bet heavy from the public means that when all the results from Sunday are posted the risk on Denver is going to be through the roof.

Here’s a look at all the line movement at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook from the time they posted their Early NFL Week 16 numbers last Wednesday to wher it’s at on Friday afternoon.

The line movement is based on rating adjustments, market adjustments, week 15 results, injuries and of course actual cash wagered.

Washington at Philadelphia (Saturday): The Eagles opened -4 and its resting at -3 (EV) almost everywhere, except for the South Point which only uses flat number.

NY Giants at Minnesota: The Vikings opened -3 (-120) and was re-opened Sunday night at -4. On Monday, Minnesota was re-opened at -5.5 and it’s been bet up to -6.

Chicago at Tampa Bay: The Buccaneers opened -3 (EV) and it’s a solid -3 everywhere now.

Carolina at Atlanta: The Panthers opened -6.5 and it’s now -6.5 (-120 with a few -7 (EV) showing at places like William Hill and CG Technology. MGM books have -7 (+105).

Dallas at Buffalo: The Bills opened -5.5 and its up to -6.5 as of Friday afternoon.

Jacksonville at New Orleans: The Saints opened -3.5 when it was thought QB Drew Brees would be playing, but with uncertainty, the game still remains off the board. Brees didn’t practice all week but insists that he’ll play despite a bout with plantar fascia.

San Francisco at Detroit: The Lions opened -7 and it’s now -10 (EV) with other books ranging from -9 to -9.5.

Cleveland at Kansas City: The Chiefs opened -11.5 and it’s now -11 with William Hill and Wynn a city high at -12.

New England at N.Y. Jets: The Patirots opened -3 and it’s -3.5 (EV) now. A few books have -3 (-120 or -115) posted.

Indianapolis at Houston: No opening line due to the status of bot QBs for each team. Marcus Mariota is 'out' for the Titans and the drop off to Zach Mettenberger isn‘t that big -- maybe 1-point if any. The real problem with making a solid number here is who will start for the Texans. The drop off from Brian Hoyer to either back-up Brandon Weeden is a key to the number. Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White says “it’s about a 1.5-point differential“. Hoyer did practice Wednesday and Thursday, but Weeden took most of the snaps with the first string offense. Late Friday afternoon, the Westgate was the only book in town with a number opening the Texans -4.5. Houston controls its own playoff destiny.

Green Bay at Arizona: The Cardinals opened -4.5 and it’s still there with Wynn at a low of -4.

St. Louis at Seattle: The Seahawks opened -14 and it’s now -12.5 with several books at -13.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore: No line due to uncertainty over the Baltimore QB situation. The number is -10 everywhere with expectations that Matt Schaub will start for the Ravens after practicing fully on Thursday, although back-ups Jimmy Clausen and Ryan Mallet could also see time.

Cincinnati at Denver: The Broncos opened -4 and it’s now -3.5 (EV) with a low of -3 (-120) at William Hill.


WESTGATE LAS VEGAS SUPER BOOK
EARLY NFL WEEK 17 NUMBERS (POSTED WEDNESDAY)

SUNDAY, JANUARY 3, 2016
JETS
BILLS -1.5

BUCS
PANTHERS -10

PATRIOTS -3.5
DOLPHINS

RAVENS
BENGALS -10

SAINTS
FALCONS OFF

JAGUARS
TEXANS OFF

STEELERS -9.5
BROWNS

RAIDERS
CHIEFS -7

TITANS
COLTS -3

REDSKINS
COWBOYS PK

LIONS
BEARS -1.5

EAGLES
GIANTS -2.5 -120

VIKINGS
PACKERS -5.5

CHARGERS
BRONCOS -9.5

RAMS -2.5
49ERS

SEAHAWKS -2.5
CARDINALS

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NFL Week 16 Essentials
December 22, 2015


Saturday, Dec. 26

Washington at Philadelphia: The Eagles fell to Arizona on Sunday night, but still control their destiny as they look to claim the NFC East and avoid consecutive seasons without making the playoffs under head coach Chip Kelly. They won 10 games last year in just missing out. In 2015, the only way they won’t make it is if they fail to reach .500, which would make Kelly’s offseason overhaul of the roster in his first year controlling all personnel decisions a complete failure. Sam Bradford continued a disappointing run as the starting quarterback with another crucial turnover against the Cardinals, but did connect with Jordan Matthews and Zach Ertz, who are finally producing in the manner they were expected to when the season began.

Washington won the first meeting between these teams at home 23-20 in Week 4 and have prevailed in the last two meetings by scoring on its last possession. Kirk Cousins engineered a 15-play, 90-yard drive to play hero in that one and comes off his second four-touchdown game of the season in beating Buffalo 35-25 to give his team a 6-2 home record. The ‘Skins are just 1-5 on the road in large part because Cousins has thrown nine interceptions and just six TDs away from Landover this season. The Eagles are 3-4 at “the Linc” and would suffer their fourth losing season at home in the last five years if they fail to get this one.

Sunday, Dec. 27

Chicago at Tampa Bay: Jay Cutler commented that the Bears will get to see who in the locker room has character over the next few weeks, hoping to finish strong after a disappointing result in Minneapolis. With first-year coach John Fox and his staff improving chemistry in the locker room as well as the on-field product, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Chicago finish strong. The Bears are actually 4-3 on the road and had a streak of three straight road games snapped by the Vikings. The Bucs will also be out to demonstrate improvement behind rookie Jameis Winston, who will be looking to prevent the first three-game losing streak of his career. Tampa Bay RB Doug Martin is in the thick of the race for the rushing title, ranking second (1,305 yds), just nine yards behind Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson. He’s got a favorable matchup against a Chicago run defense that ranks 25th of 32, surrendering 125.9 yards per game.

Carolina at Atlanta: The Falcons snapped a six-game losing streak with a 23-17 win to keep their microscopic playoff hopes alive with a 23-17 win in Jacksonville, but the Falcons will need the Seahawks and Vikings to both lose out and a strength of schedule tie-breaker to come into play just to have a shot at not squandering a 5-0 start. The Panthers are obviously 14-0 and have a shot at perfection, but they’ve already clinched a playoff bye, leaving head coach Ron Rivera to make the decision of just how hard he intends to push key figures like Cam Newton, Luke Kuechly and Josh Norman these final two games. All are expected to start here, but the team could continue to be cautious with Jonathan Stewart (foot), leaving Fozzy Whitaker and Mike Tolbert to carry the load in the backfield. Newton threw five TD passes for the third time this season in Sunday’s 38-35 win over the Giants, but his highest-rated game in terms of QBR came in the 38-0 win over the Falcons on Dec. 13. Carolina won in Atlanta 34-3 last December, so it has really dominated its NFC South rival of late.

Dallas at Buffalo: This was supposed to be a dream matchup. It’s one of only two interconference matchups this week and should have affected both playoff races. Instead, you may as well call this the Disappointment Bowl given the heightened expectations both teams started the season with. Injuries have played a large role in the demise of both, but so has inconsistency. The Cowboys will turn to their fourth starting QB of the season as fourth-year pro Kellen Moore gets a chance to try and build off his NFL debut against the Jets, where he threw one touchdown and three picks but moved the offense far better than veteran Matt Cassel. Moore beat the Bills in the preseason finale as a member of the Lions, which caused Rex Ryan to comment, “he’s a little biddy lefty, what do you want me to say? Big deal.” Ryan needs to win out to avoid a losing season in his first year in Buffalo. He won’t have the services of RB LeSean McCoy to rely on since the Bills’ top offseason acquisition tore his MCL in the loss at Washington. Rookie Karlos Williams is expected to get the bulk of the work in his place.

San Francisco at Detroit: The 49ers continued their run as the lowest-scoring team in the NFL on Sunday, scoring just 14 points – all in the last 18 minutes after they already trailed 24-0 – in losing at home to Cincinnati. Blaine Gabbert threw three interceptions, his most this season, in falling to 2-4 as the 49ers starter. The Lions beat New Orleans 35-27 on Monday night and continue to show some fight, finally crawling out of last place in the NFC North after an 0-5 start. They still share the cellar with Chicago, but are that disastrous Packers Hail Mary loss away from wins in five of six. Matthew Stafford has thrown 14 TDs and just two interceptions during the run and set a Lions franchise record by completing 22-of-25 passes. San Francisco has won nine consecutive meetings in this series and 14 out of 15, but they haven’t played since 2012. Detroit’s win came in ’95.

Cleveland at Kansas City: Johnny Manziel had some nice moments in Sunday’s 30-13 loss in Seattle, but is now 2-3 as the Browns starting QB this season and has yet to win on the road, falling to 0-7 in his appearances in opposing stadiums as a pro. Arrowhead is always a daunting venue, so he’ll be up against it as the Chiefs look to continue their postseason push. After losing its first two home games, Kansas City has won three straight there, part of an incredible eight-game winning streak that was extended in a 34-14 win at Baltimore. The defense scored a pair of touchdowns, picked off two passes and added a fumble recovery despite playing without top pass-rusher Justin Houston, who isn’t likely to return from a knee injury this week. QB Alex Smith has thrown 10 TDs and just one interception to key his team’s current run.

Indianapolis at Miami: Andrew Luck (kidney) has already been ruled out for this contest, so it will be on Matt Hasselbeck, “beat up from the feet up,” in the words of head coach Chuck Pagano, to keep hope alive for the Colts. He suffered a jaw injury in the 16-10 home loss to Houston, so he’s now banged up his ribs, back over the last month. Charlie Whitehurst could be pressed into action in South Florida against Ndamakong Suh and a depleted defense that’s unlikely to get back DT Earl Mitchell (calf), LB Koa Misi (back) and LB Jelani Jenkins (ankle). That unit hasn’t been the same since losing edge rusher Cameron Wake, who still leads the Dolphins in sacks despite being lost on Oct. 29. The Chargers were the third team in four games to drop at least 30 on Miami, so the Colts have an opportunity to snap out of a slump that has seen them average 12 points over the last three games.

New England at N.Y. Jets: The Patriots have clinched a bye, but are still playing meaningful football as they look to ensure the AFC playoffs go through Gillette Stadium and not Cincinnati. They lost WR Danny Amendola to a knee injury that will keep him out here and saw key defensive players Dont’a Hightower and Patrick Chung leave their win over Tennessee, which means the Jets could be facing a depleted group since DB Devin McCourty was held out of last week’s win and may not play until the postseason. New York held off Dallas on Saturday night to move to 9-5, its largest win total since 2010. Bill Belichick has beaten the Jets in nine of the last 10, but got a great challenge from new head coach Todd Bowles in their first meeting, needing a Tom Brady-led fourth-quarter comeback to win 30-23 in Week 7. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 295 yards and two scores in that game while Brady threw for 355.

Houston at Tennessee: After ending a 13-year run of futility in Indianapolis, the Texans are now in the driver’s seat for an AFC South title and the playoff berth that comes with it. QB Brandon Weeden led a comeback after T.J. Yates suffered a torn ACL, but regular starter Brian Hoyer could clear concussion protocol and be available for this final road trip of the regular season. If he’s unable to, Weeden would start and newly-signed B.J. Daniels would serve as the backup. WR DeAndre Hopkins is up to 97 receptions, tied for fourth in the NFL. J.J. Watt ranks second in the league with 13.5 sacks and will be getting after Titans backup Zach Mettenberger since Marcus Mariota injured his knee last week and won’t play here. Mettenberger threw for a pair of scores and 242 yards in Sunday’s 33-16 loss to the Patriots, his most prolific numbers of the season. He started the 20-6 Nov. 1 loss in Houston because Mariota was also out and got sacked seven times. Whitney Mercilus took him down on four occasions. The Texans have won six of seven in this series.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore: One of the NFL’s best rivalries won’t pack the punch it usually does due to the Ravens falling off this season, but you can count on optimum effort from John Harbaugh’s group with the Steelers in town. Injuries have depleted Baltimore, which is expected to again start Jimmy Clausen over a banged-up Matt Schaub here to try and end a three-game losing streak in which they’ve been outscored 84-33. They’ve dropped five home games in a single season for the first time since 1997 and have never dropped six since moving to the city from Cleveland in ‘96. Joe Flacco led the Ravens to a 23-20 win in Pittsburgh back in Week 4 in a game that was started by Michael Vick. Ben Roethlisberger has since returned to action and led the Steelers to three straight wins, completing 40 passes in Sunday’s 34-27 win over Denver. Antonio Brown is the NFL’s leader in receiving yards (1,586) and ranks second behind Julio Jones (118) with 116 catches.

Jacksonville at New Orleans: The Jaguars still have an outside shot at the playoffs, needing to win out and have the Texans lose this week and the Colts to fall at home against Tennessee in Week 17. While unlikely, Jacksonville will set its highest win total since 2010 if it can claim a sixth victory in either of the next two weeks. Blake Bortles already has 31 touchdown passes, ranking among the league’s top five quarterbacks in that category. Second-year WR Allen Robinson is tied for the NFL lead with 13 touchdowns. RB T.J. Yeldon is hoping to return from a knee injury, which is key since backup Denard Robinson left Sunday’s loss with a foot sprain. The Saints come off a 35-27 Monday night home loss to Detroit where Drew Brees fired three TD passes despite dealing with a foot injury most of the game. A loss here would drop New Orleans to 3-5 at the Superdome, the same home record as last year.

Green Bay at Arizona: This is the top matchup of the week, pitting two teams still vying to be the No. 2 seed in the NFC. The Packers would need to win this game and their season finale while hoping the Cardinals fall to the Seahawks in Week 17, an entirely plausible scenario. Complicating matters for the home team is that key defensive back Tyrann Mathieu suffered a torn ACL in Sunday night’s win in Philadelphia, so they’ll have to find a way to replace someone who they plug into numerous roles. Aaron Rodgers has helped lead the Packers to three consecutive wins after the team dropped four of five, clinching a postseason berth with Sunday’s 30-20 win in Oakland. He’ll look to get more consistent play from his receivers here, but it will also be critical for the Green Bay defense to find a way to the second highest-scoring team in the NFL. Rookie RB David Johnson had 229 total yards and three TDs in the 41-17 win in Philly, blessing Arizona with another dynamic weapon.

St. Louis at Seattle: The Rams beat the Seahawks 34-31 in the season opener, but have since fallen well off the pace and have been eliminated from the playoff chase. They have won consecutive games for only the second time all season and are hoping to play spoiler here, but they haven’t won two straight in this series since 2004, falling in 17 of the last 21 meetings. St. Louis rookie RB Todd Gurley is third in the league with 1,023 rushing yards, but will be facing the NFL’s No. 3 rush defense here. He didn’t play in the first meeting. Neither did QB Case Keenum, who comes off a 14-for-17 game against Tampa Bay, touchdown passes. Counterpart Russell Wilson has been brilliant during Seattle’s five-game winning streak (110-for-148, 1,420 yards, 19 TDs, 0 INTs), clicking most with Doug Baldwin, who joined Jerry Rice as the only receivers in league history to make 10 TD receptions in a four-game span with a pair of scores against Cleveland. The Seahawks have already clinched their fourth consecutive postseason appearance and are saving the banged-up Marshawn Lynch, leaving Bryce Brown, Fred Jackson, Christine Michael and Derrick Coleman to platoon, with Pete Carroll intending to ride the hot hand.

N.Y. Giants at Minnesota: After their comeback against Carolina fell short, the Giants have no room for error if they’re to make the playoffs by winning the NFC East. With Odell Beckham Jr. losing his mind against Norman and the Panthers, a team that has blown numerous fourth quarter leads continues to look like an undisciplined mess. He’s suspended for this one, so barring an unlikely win of his appeal, Eli Manning will have to rely on Reuben Randle and Dwayne Harris as top targets for this crucial visit to Minneapolis. Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater comes off the best game of his career against Chicago, throwing four TD passes and running for another to inch his team closer to the playoffs. Peterson was limited by an ankle injury against the Bears but should play here. Defensive standouts Harrison Smith, Anthony Barr and Linval Joseph have each missed the last two contests but could all return for this key Sunday night clash.

Monday, Dec. 28

Cincinnati at Denver: Look, it’s a Monday night game that actually means something. The Broncos and Bengals are vying for the No. 2 seed in the AFC and the bye that goes with it, so this may also be a potential preview of a divisional playoff game next month. The Bengals are hoping to have QB Andy Dalton back from his thumb injury by then, but saw backup A.J. McCarron fill in nicely in a 24-14 win over San Francisco that gives them hope he’ll be able to solve perhaps the league’s top defense. It would certainly help his cause if TE Tyler Eifert can return from a concussion. Coming off a rough second half in Pittsburgh, the Broncos elite secondary will be looking to rebound and hoping to get starting safeties Darian Stewart (hamstring) and T.J. Ward (ankle) back. QB Peyton Manning may return from his bout with plantar fasciitis, but Brock Osweiler is likely to remain the starter unless Manning can start getting in full practice work. Monitor this situation late in the week. A Denver loss and Kansas City win would even up the AFC West entering the final week of the regular season.

Update: Beckham's suspension was upheld. Eifert and Peyton Manning have both been ruled out for Monday night.

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NFC East heats up Saturday
December 23, 2015


WASHINGTON REDSKINS (7-7) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (6-8)

Kickoff: Saturday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Philadelphia -3.0, Total: 47.5

The Redskins will be looking to clinch the NFC East title when they face the Eagles in Philadelphia on Saturday.

It has been a wild season for the Redskins, but a win 35-25 victory over the Bills in Week 15 has the team in position to make the postseason. If Washington beats Philadelphia on Saturday night then the team will clinch the division.

The Eagles really hurt themselves with a 40-17 loss at home against the Cardinals on Sunday night. Philadelphia would need to win out to make the postseason at this point. These teams met earlier in the season in Washington and the Redskins won that game 23-20 as a three-point home underdog. Yet, the Eagles have won two straight games against the Redskins in Philadelphia and will be hoping to spoil Washington’s party on Saturday.

Philadelphia is 10-2 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -4 or worse since 1992. The Eagles will also be up against a Redskins team that is 6-15 ATS as a road underdog over the past three seasons.

Philadelphia will have to overcome some significant injuries this week, as TE Zach Ertz (Concussion) and CB Byron Maxwell (Shoulder) are questionable for Saturday’s game. QB Sam Bradford (Shoulder) is likely to play, but he is banged up and won’t be at 100%.

If the Redskins are going to beat the Eagles and win the division on Saturday then Kirk Cousins is going to need to play one heck of a game. The quarterback has been a different person when playing at home versus on the road.

Cousins has thrown for 2,170 yards with 16 touchdowns and just two interceptions at home this season, but he has thrown for just 1,455 yards with six touchdowns and a miserable nine interceptions on the road. He will need to avoid mistakes on Saturday and ride the momentum he has going for him at the moment.

Defensively, this Redskins team is really playing well recently. Washington has allowed 21 or less points in three of the past four games. If the team can dig deep and hold the Eagles to a similar number then the Redskins should have a good chance of clinching their spot in the playoffs.

Philadelphia has been lousy defensively this season, allowing 25.9 PPG (27th in NFL). If this team is going to stay alive in the postseason race then it will need to make things difficult on Kirk Cousins. He is prone to throwing interceptions on the road, so the Eagles will need to send some pressure to make him uncomfortable in the pocket on Saturday.

Philadelphia will need Sam Bradford to play a good game on Saturday. He put up good numbers against Washington earlier in the season, throwing for 270 yards with three touchdowns and no picks. The stats didn’t translate into a win though and he must keep his defense off the field by putting together some long drives in this game.

The Eagles will also need to get things going on the ground in this one. DeMarco Murray has rushed for just 37 yards on 13 carries over the past two weeks and Ryan Mathews has rushed for only 86 yards on 24 carries in that time. The Eagles need to show more of a commitment to the rushing attack in Week 16.

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SATURDAY, DECEMBER 26

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


WAS at PHI 08:25 PM

PHI -3.0 TRIPLE PLAY

U 47.0 *****

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 16


Sunday's games
Bears (5-9) @ Buccaneers (6-8)-- Lovie Smith was 81-63 in nine years as Chicago's coach, winning NFC in third year, going 1-1 in playoffs next six years so they fired him. Both teams here come in on skids; Bucs lost three of last four games, but had three extra days to prep after loss in St Louis. Bears lost last three, giving up 29.3 ppg (11 TDs/30 drives); they won four of last five games with Bucs, with four of five decided by 6 or less points- two went OT. This is Chicago's first visit here in 10 years. NFC South non-divisional home favorites are 7-7 vs spread; NFC North road underdogs are 9-3. Last three Chicago games went over total; three of last four Buc games stayed under.

Panthers (14-0) @ Falcons (7-7)-- Carolina (-8.5) spanked Falcons 38-0 at home two weeks ago, outgaining them 424-230 in game that was 28-0 at half. Panthers are 5-1 in last six series games, winning 21-20/34-3 in last two visits here- they're 7-0 on the road after 38-35 win in Swamp LW, when they blew 35-7 lead. Atlanta snapped skid at six last week; they're 1-9 vs spread in last 10 games- they're 2-5 SU in last seven after 5-0 start- they lost last three home games, are 3-1 as underdogs, 1-0 at home. Will Rivera rest banged-up guys or go for 16-0 season? Six of last eight Carolina games went over total; last eight Atlanta games stayed under. Underdogs are 6-2 vs spread in NFC South divisional games this year.

Cowboys (4-10) @ Bills (6-8)-- Weather forecast is 47 degrees, 90% chance of rain for Kellen Moore's first NFL start- Boise alum is in his 4th NFL season, saw his first game action LW in loss to Jets (15-25/158, one TD, three INT). Dallas is 3-4 on road 2-4 as road dogs; they're 1-9 with backup QB starting (Moore is 3rd backup QB to start this year). Bills lost four of last five games; they won 33-17/30-21 in two home games since Halloween, running ball for 453 yards- they've run for 193 ypg in last three weeks. Pokes are -10 in turnovers last five weeks. NFC East non-divisional road dogs are 4-8 vs spread; AFC East home faves are 8-5-1. Five of last six Dallas games stayed under total; three of last four Buffalo games went over.

Jaguars (5-9) @ Saints (5-9)-- Brees hurt his foot Monday, is ?? to go here in series where home team won four of five meetings. Jaguars lost 17-13/41-24 in two visits here; they've lost three of last four games overall, are 3-2-1 vs spread on road, with losses by 34-3-7-5-3, and win at Baltimore. Saints lost six of last seven tilts thanks to a hideous defense; they've allowed 35.3 ppg in last seven games. Saints are 3-4 at home, 1-3-1 as home favorite- they allowed 166.4 rushing ypg the last five weeks. AFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 6-9 vs spread; NFC South home favorites are 7-7. Over is 3-1 in last four Jax games, 5-2 in last seven Saint games. New Orleans gave up 39.8 ppg in last four home games (1-3 SU).

49ers (4-10) @ Lions (5-9)-- Detroit is 4-2 since its bye; only one of the wins was by more than eight points. Lions are 3-4 at home, 1-2 as home favorites- they're 1-9 vs spread when allowing more than 16 points. 49ers are 1-4 since their bye, are 2-5 as road dogs, losing by 25-40-3-21-16-14 points- win was in Chicago. Niners won nine in row vs Detroit, with seven of nine wins by 7+ points; they're 4-1 in last five trips here, with loss in '95. NFC West non-divisional road underdogs are 2-7 vs spread; NFC North home favorites are 8-4. Six of last eight Niner games stayed under total; over is 7-3 in last ten Lion games. 49ers are 2-8 vs spread in its 10 losses, 4-7 vs the spread as an underdog of 6+ points.

Browns (3-11) @ Chiefs (9-5)-- Red-hot Chiefs won last eight games (7-1 vs spread) are 2-3 as home favorites, with wins by 10-8-7 points. KC is 4-3 in last seven series games; three of four wins were by 6 or less points. Cleveland lost eight of last nine games (1-7 vs spread in last eight); they're 2-5 as road underdogs, losing last four away games, all by 17+ points. AFC North non-divisional road underdogs are 6-5-1 vs spread; AFC West home favorites are 6-6. Chiefs have been plus in turnovers in nine of last ten games, with +19 TO ratio after being -4 in first four games. Five of last six Cleveland games stayed under; three of last four Chief games went over the total. KC has four defensive touchdowns in its last five games.

Colts (6-8) @ Dolphins (5-9)-- Indy hanging onto faint hope for an unlikely division title after home loss to Texans and their 5th-string QB LW. Colts won four of last five series games; all five were decided by 6 or less points, but Indy lost last three games overall by 35-35-6 points, scoring two TDs on last 36 drives- they've run for just 60 ypg in five post-bye games. 40-year old backup QB Hasselbeck is playing hurt and it shows. Miami lost six of last eight games (1-7 vs spread); they're 2-3 as favorite- its last two wins were by total of three points. AFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 6-9 vs spread; AFC East home favorites are 8-5-1. Five of Colts' last six road games went over total; four of last six Miami games stayed under.

Patriots (12-2) @ Jets (8-6)-- Pats (-7) won first meeting 30-23 in Week 7, running it only nine times for 16 yards whole game; they converted 8-16 on third down, were +1 in turnovers. Jets are +18 in turnovers in eight wins, -13 in six losses. Pats won eight of last nine series games; five of last seven were decided by 3 or less points. NE won three of last four visits here, with last two decided by total of four points; they're 2-3 as road favorites this year. Jets are playing for playoff spot; they won, covered last four games; they're 6-2 at home, getting extra home game because of Giant game. Jets are 2-0-1 as an underdog this year. Three of last four Patriot games went over total; five of last six Jet games stayed under.

Texans (7-7) @ Titans (6-8)-- Houston is game up with two to play for AFC South crown; they beat Titans 20-6 (-3.5) in first meeting in Week 8- Tennessee was just 1-12 on third down, averaged 2.3 ypa and was -3 in turnovers. Texans are 6-1 in last seven series games, winning three of last four here, with all three wins by 14+. Six of last seven Texan games stayed under the total. Tennessee lost five of its last six games (0-5-1 vs spread); they're 1-9 vs spread when scoring less than 33, a figure Texans allowed twice all year. Houston allowed 17 or less points in six of its seven wins; Titans scored 20+ in only two of last six games. Underdogs are 5-3-1 against spread in AFC South divisional games, 1-0 at home.

Packers (10-4) @ Cardinals (12-2)-- Arizona won its last eight games; they're 2-4 as home favorite, with only SU loss to Rams in Week 4- Cards were -3 in turnovers in both their losses. Green Bay won/covered last three games, starting with Hail Mary win in Detroit that ended 1-4 skid. Packers are 5-2 on road this year- they scored 16 or less points in three of four losses- they're 7-2 in last nine series games; their last visit here was in '09 playoff game. Arizona is +10 in turnovers in last four games, as offense hasn't turned ball over once. NFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 9-3 vs spread; NFC West home favorites are 6-6. Under is 8-3 in last 11 Green Bay games, 3-1 in four Cardinal tilts.

Rams (6-8) @ Seahawks (9-5)-- Seattle (-4) lost 34-31 in OT at St Louis in its opener, despite scoring TD on both defense/special teams; they won/covered five in a row overall, with four of five wins by 16+ points. Hawks are 4-3 as home favorites; over is 4-1-1 in their last six games, but 2-8 in Rams' last ten games. St Louis is 0-5 vs the spread outdoors this year- their only road cover was Week 4 win at Arizona. Rams are 0-10 in Seattle since beating Seahawks 27-20 in '04 playoff game, when both of them got into playoffs at 8-8. Seattle allowed total of 26 points in last three games (one TD on last 26 drives); they're 4-0 as double digit favorite this year- they're +8 in turnovers last six games- they lost in Week 1 despite +2 turnover ratio.

Steelers (9-5) @ Ravens (4-10)-- Baltimore (-2.5) beat Steelers 23-20 in OT back in Week 4, in game Vick started for Pitt. Ravens are now down to #3 QB Clausen; in his three starts this year, his offense was outscored 21-20 by other teams' defense, special teams- not good. Baltimore won four of last five games with Steelers, 3-1 in last four here, but absence of competent QB trumps all that. Steelers are playing for playoff spot; they've won/covered last three games, outscoring Denver 21-0 in 2nd half of comeback win LW. In last three games, Pitt outscored foes 62-13 in second half; they're 5-1 as favorite this year; only non-cover was 38-35 win over Raiders in Week 9. Last four Pittsburgh games went over the total.

Giants (6-8) @ Vikings (9-5)-- No Beckham for Giants in game flexed to night start in frigid Twin Cities; gametime temp expected to be in mid-teens. Giants won last two series games at home 21-3/23-7 after Vikings had won four in row- this is first visit here for Giants since '09. Minnesota is 6-2 vs spread as favorite; they lost two of last three at home, losing to Pack/Seattle. Giants are 5-2-1 as underdogs this year, are 3-4 SU on road, with three of four losses by 6 or less points. Vikings clinch spot in playoffs with win here; Giants were eliminated if Redskins won Saturday. NFC East non-divisional road dogs are 4-8 vs spread; NFC North home favorites are 8-4. Under is 4-2-1 in last seven Viking games, 1-3 in last four Giant road games.


Monday's game
Bengals (11-3) @ Broncos (10-4)-- Denver isn't in playoffs yet; they've been shut out in second half of last three games (36-0), losing last two weeks after leading by 12+ points at half. Denver win here vaults them above Bengals into #2 seed, which includes first round bye. Broncos' 37-28 loss at Cincy LY was their first in last five games with Bengals, but Cincy lost last nine visits here- their last win in Denver was back in '75. Bengals won McCarron's first NFL start LW, but three TD drives totaled just 67 yards. In four of last six games, Denver lost the field position battle by 8+ yards. AFC North non-divisional road underdogs are 6-5-1 vs spread; AFC West home favorites are 6-6. Six of last eight Cincy games stayed under total.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, December 27

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Sunday Night Football betting preview: Giants at Vikings
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Eli and the Giants will have to make due without Odell Beckham Sunday night against Minnesota.


New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5, 44.5)

Eli Manning will be without top wideout Odell Beckham Jr. on Sunday when the New York Giants continue their pursuit of the NFC East title with a road tilt versus the Minnesota Vikings. Manning found Beckham with his career-high 32nd touchdown pass last week, but the Giants' spirited rally came up short in a 38-35 setback to undefeated Carolina.

The testy matchup led to the one-game suspension of Beckham, who was flagged three times for unnecessary roughness against Panthers cornerback Josh Norman - with one altercation coming after a helmet-to-helmet hit where neither competitor was involved in the play. Replacing Beckham will be a tall task for the Giants, as the second-year star leads the team in receptions (91), yards (1,396) and touchdowns (13). "Outside of Eli Manning, (Beckham's) their best player," said Minnesota's Adrian Peterson, who told reporters that he texted his support for the wideout and didn't think his actions warranted a suspension. Peterson sprained his left ankle in last week's 38-17 victory over NFC North rival Chicago, but the NFL's leading rusher said he expects to play Sunday as Minnesota bids for a playoff berth.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: The Vikings opened as 6.5-point favorites, but it was the Giants who got the early support, moving the line to Vikings -5. Since then however, the line has come back to the Vikes and is back at the opening number. The total has been bet down a point-and-a-half from 46 to 44.5

INJURY REPORT:

Giants - DE G. Selvie (probable Sunday, concussion), RB O. Darkwa (probable Sunday, illness), T E. FLowers (probable Sunday, illness), WR D. Harris (questionable Sunday, knee), CB J. Hosley (questionable Sunday, undisclosed), LB D. Kennard (out Sunday, hamstring), S C. Taylor (out Sunday, concussion), WR O. Beckham (out Sunday, suspension), DT M. Kuhn (I-R, knee), LB J. Morris (I-R, quadricep), FB N. Whitlock (I-R, knee).

Vikings - WR C. Johnson (probable Sunday, ankle), RB J. McKinnon (probable Sunday, concussion), CB J. Robinson (probable Sunday, concussion), TE R. Ellison (probable Sunday, ankle), DE E. Griffen (probable Sunday, shoulder), DT L. Joseph (probable Sunday, foot), S H. Smith (probable Sunday, hamstring), LB A. Barr (probable Sunday, groin), RB A. Peterson (probable Sunday, ankle), C J. Sullivan (questionable Sunday, back), DE S. Crichton (I-R, concussion).

WEATHER REPORT: It will be a clear but chilly night for football in Minnesota. Temperatures will hover around a fridgid 20 degrees for the game, with a six-to-eight mile per hour wind blowing across the field from north to south.

POWER RANKINGS: Giants (0) - Vikings (-1.5) + home field (-3) = Vikings -4.5

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Adrian Peterson, talking about the recent improvement of QB Teddy Bridgewater: ?These last two weeks, I've seen a different look in his eyes. I really don't have to say much to him. Meanwhile, the betting markets moved against the Giants two full points when Odell Beckham Jr?s one game suspension was announced."

ABOUT THE GIANTS (6-8, 8-5-1 ATS, 9-5 O/U): Rashad Jennings became the first New York running back to rush for a triple-digit yardage total this season when he rolled up 107 versus the Panthers. The 30-year-old, who found the end zone for the first time since Week 4, has rushed 38 times for 188 yards in the last two contests after mustering just 28 yards total in the previous two. Wide receiver Rueben Randle, who should see an uptick in targets with Beckham suspended, has scored in back-to-back contests and four of his last six.

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (9-5, 11-3 ATS, 3-10-1 O/U): Should Green Bay falter against Arizona earlier in the day, Minnesota's contest on Sunday night would be rendered somewhat meaningless ahead of a pivotal Week 17 showdown with the Packers for the NFC North title. While Mike Zimmer admitted he would like to "be smart" in his approach, the coach expressed more of a desire to protect his players that are dealing with slight injuries. Teddy Bridgewater has been heating up of late, throwing for 335 yards against Arizona in Week 14 before recording a career-best five touchdowns (four passing, one rushing) versus the Bears.

TRENDS:

* Giants are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games in December.
* Vikings are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games in December.
* Over is 4-1 in Giants last 5 vs. NFC.
* Under is 11-3-1 in Vikings last 15 games overall.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-five percent of bettors are siding with the Giants in this NFC matchup. As for the total, 64 percent of wagers are on the over.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Westgate Super Contest (1,727 entrants-- prize pool is $2.5M)
Most popular picks 2-7 in Week 15 season record: 47-44-2

Redskins (+3) were 4th most popular pick; they played last night- W.

7) Browns +12 (335)-- People showing faith in big underdogs this week.

6) Rams +13.5 (353)-- St Louis lost its last ten visits to King County.

5) Patriots -3 (411)-- Don't get many chances at New England -3.

3) Vikings -4.5 (431)-- Going to be a frigid night in the Twin Cities. .

2) Steelers -10 (437)-- Jimmy Clausen is 0-3 against spread this year.

1) Broncos -3.5 (446)-- Denver could actually still miss the playoffs.

**********

Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Some notes on today's NFL games........

13) Bears (5-9) @ Buccaneers (6-8)-- Lovie Smith was 81-63 in nine years as Chicago's coach, winning NFC in third year, going 1-1 in playoffs next six years so they fired him. Can Smith's Tampa Bay players get him some revenge today?

12) Panthers (14-0) @ Falcons (7-7)--- Carolina (-8.5) spanked Falcons 38-0 at home two weeks ago, outgaining them 424-230 in game that was 28-0 at half. Atlanta is 1-9 vs spread in its last 10 games.

11) Cowboys (4-10) @ Bills (6-8)-- Kellen Moore gets his first NFL start in what is expected to be rainy, warm day in Orchard Park. Bills lost four of last five games; they won 33-17/30-21 in two home games since Halloween.

10) Jaguars (5-9) @ Saints (5-9)-- Saints lost six of last seven tilts thanks to a hideous defense; they've allowed 35.3 ppg in last seven games. Saints are 3-4 at home, 1-3-1 as home favorite- they allowed 166.4 rushing ypg the last five weeks.

9) 49ers (4-10) @ Lions (5-9)-- Detroit is 4-2 since its bye; only one of the wins was by more than eight points. 49ers are 2-8 vs spread in its 10 losses, 4-7 vs the spread as an underdog of 6+ points.

8) Browns (3-11) @ Chiefs (9-5)-- Red-hot Chiefs won last eight games (7-1 against spread) are 2-3 as home favorites, with wins by 10-8-7 points. Cleveland lost eight of last nine games (1-7 vs spread in last eight); they're 2-5 as road underdogs, losing last four away games, all by 17+ points.

7) Colts (6-8) @ Dolphins (5-9)-- Indy lost last three games overall by 35-35-6 points, scoring two TDs on last 36 drives- they've run for just 60 ypg in five post-bye games. Miami lost six of last eight games (1-7 vs spread); they're 2-3 as favorite- its last two wins were by total of three points.

6) Patriots (12-2) @ Jets (8-6)-- Jets are +18 in turnovers in eight wins, -13 in their six losses. Pats won eight of last nine series games; five of last seven were decided by 3 or less points. NE won three of last four visits here, with last two decided by total of four points.

5) Texans (7-7) @ Titans (6-8)--Tennessee lost five of its last six games (0-5-1 vs spread); they're 1-9 vs spread when scoring less than 33, a figure Texans allowed twice all year. Underdogs are 5-3-1 vs spread in AFC South divisional games, 1-0 at home.

4) Packers (10-4) @ Cardinals (12-2)-- Arizona won its last eight games; they're 2-4 as home favorite, with only SU loss to Rams in Week 4- Cards were -3 in turnovers in both their losses. Under is 8-3 in last 11 Green Bay games, 3-1 in four Cardinal tilts.

3) Rams (6-8) @ Seahawks (9-5)-- St Louis is 0-5 vs the spread outdoors this year- their only road cover was Week 4 win at Arizona. Rams are 0-10 in Seattle since they beat Seahawks 27-20 in '04 playoff game, when both of them got to playoffs at 8-8.

2) Steelers (9-5) @ Ravens (4-10)-- Ravens are down to #3 QB Clausen; in his three starts this season, his offense was outscored 21-20 by other teams' defense, special teams. In last three games, Pitt outscored foes 62-13 in second half; they're 5-1 as favorite this season.

1) Giants (6-8) @ Vikings (9-5)-- Minnesota is playng for playoff position; Giants are without Beckham- they got eliminated last night when Redskins won NFC East. NFC East non-divisional road dogs are 4-8 vs spread; NFC North home favorites are 8-4.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL ATS

NFL > (115) SAN FRANCISCO@ (116) DETROIT | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST SAN FRANCISCO against the spread in All games in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points
The record is 0 Wins and 10 Losses for the last two seasons (-11 units)

NFL > (123) HOUSTON@ (124) TENNESSEE | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE against the spread in All games against conference opponents
The record is 3 Wins and 17 Losses for the last two seasons (-15.7 units)

NFL > (123) HOUSTON@ (124) TENNESSEE | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE against the spread in All games in December games
The record is 0 Wins and 9 Losses for the last three seasons (-9.9 units)

NFL > (127) ST LOUIS@ (128) SEATTLE | 2015-12-27 16:25:00 - 2015-12-27 16:25:00
Play ON SEATTLE against the spread in All games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season
The record is 9 Wins and 0 Losses for the last three seasons (+9 units)

NFL > (119) INDIANAPOLIS@ (120) MIAMI | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST MIAMI against the spread in All games in December games
The record is 0 Wins and 8 Losses for the last two seasons (-8.8 units)

NFL > (127) ST LOUIS@ (128) SEATTLE | 2015-12-27 16:25:00 - 2015-12-27 16:25:00
Play ON SEATTLE against the spread in All games in December games
The record is 11 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+9.9 units)

NFL > (131) CINCINNATI@ (132) DENVER | 2015-12-28 20:30:00 - 2015-12-28 20:30:00
Play ON CINCINNATI against the spread in All games in road games
The record is 7 Wins and 0 Losses for the this season (+7 units)

NFL > (105) NY GIANTS@ (106) MINNESOTA | 2015-12-27 20:30:00 - 2015-12-27 20:30:00
Play ON MINNESOTA against the spread in All games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 27 Wins and 9 Losses for the last three seasons (+17.1 units)

NFL > (107) CHICAGO@ (108) TAMPA BAY | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST CHICAGO against the spread in Road games in December games
The record is 11 Wins and 33 Losses for the since 1992 (-25.3 units)

NFL > (113) JACKSONVILLE@ (114) NEW ORLEANS | 2015-12-27 16:05:00 - 2015-12-27 16:05:00
Play AGAINST JACKSONVILLE against the spread in All games in non-conference games
The record is 1 Wins and 10 Losses for the last three seasons (-10 units)

NFL > (105) NY GIANTS@ (106) MINNESOTA | 2015-12-27 20:30:00 - 2015-12-27 20:30:00
Play ON MINNESOTA against the spread in All games off a division game
The record is 12 Wins and 2 Losses for the last three seasons (+9.8 units)

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NFL MONEYLINE

NFL > (123) HOUSTON@ (124) TENNESSEE | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE using money line in All games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 7 Wins and 29 Losses for the last three seasons (-26.9 units)

NFL > (113) JACKSONVILLE@ (114) NEW ORLEANS | 2015-12-27 16:05:00 - 2015-12-27 16:05:00
Play AGAINST NEW ORLEANS using money line in Home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season
The record is 17 Wins and 20 Losses for the since 1992 (-38.5 units)

NFL > (113) JACKSONVILLE@ (114) NEW ORLEANS | 2015-12-27 16:05:00 - 2015-12-27 16:05:00
Play AGAINST NEW ORLEANS using money line in Home games in December games
The record is 20 Wins and 33 Losses for the since 1992 (-43.95 units)

NFL > (121) NEW ENGLAND@ (122) NY JETS | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play ON NEW ENGLAND using money line in All games in games played on turf
The record is 36 Wins and 4 Losses for the last three seasons (+28.2 units)

NFL > (115) SAN FRANCISCO@ (116) DETROIT | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST SAN FRANCISCO using money line in All games in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points
The record is 1 Wins and 9 Losses for the last two seasons (-11.45 units)

NFL > (117) CLEVELAND@ (118) KANSAS CITY | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST CLEVELAND using money line in All games in December games
The record is 1 Wins and 11 Losses for the last three seasons (-12.35 units)

NFL > (105) NY GIANTS@ (106) MINNESOTA | 2015-12-27 20:30:00 - 2015-12-27 20:30:00
Play ON NY GIANTS using money line in Road games against NFC North division opponents
The record is 16 Wins and 8 Losses for the since 1992 (+21.75 units)

NFL > (123) HOUSTON@ (124) TENNESSEE | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE using money line in Home games in games played on a grass field
The record is 5 Wins and 18 Losses for the last three seasons (-19.2 units)

NFL > (107) CHICAGO@ (108) TAMPA BAY | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TAMPA BAY using money line in Home games against conference opponents
The record is 3 Wins and 14 Losses for the last three seasons (-14.45 units)

NFL > (117) CLEVELAND@ (118) KANSAS CITY | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST CLEVELAND using money line in All games in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points
The record is 3 Wins and 14 Losses for the last three seasons (-14.4 units)

NFL > (125) GREEN BAY@ (126) ARIZONA | 2015-12-27 16:25:00 - 2015-12-27 16:25:00
Play ON ARIZONA using money line in All games in games played on turf
The record is 25 Wins and 8 Losses for the last three seasons (+18.3 units)

NFL > (129) PITTSBURGH@ (130) BALTIMORE | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST BALTIMORE using money line in All games in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points
The record is 1 Wins and 7 Losses for the this season (-9.3 units)

NFL > (121) NEW ENGLAND@ (122) NY JETS | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play ON NEW ENGLAND using money line in All games against conference opponents
The record is 20 Wins and 4 Losses for the last two seasons (+14.7 units)

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NFL FIRST HALF

NFL > (129) PITTSBURGH@ (130) BALTIMORE | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST BALTIMORE ?>in the first halfin All games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 0 Wins and 9 Losses for the this season (-9.9 units)

NFL > (127) ST LOUIS@ (128) SEATTLE | 2015-12-27 16:25:00 - 2015-12-27 16:25:00
Play ON ST LOUIS ?>in the first halfin All games as an underdog vs. the 1rst half line
The record is 16 Wins and 3 Losses for the last two seasons (+12.7 units)

NFL > (121) NEW ENGLAND@ (122) NY JETS | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST NY JETS ?>in the first halfin All games in games where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5
The record is 1 Wins and 10 Losses for the last two seasons (-10 units)

NFL > (107) CHICAGO@ (108) TAMPA BAY | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TAMPA BAY ?>in the first halfin Home games against conference opponents
The record is 1 Wins and 10 Losses for the last two seasons (-10 units)

NFL > (113) JACKSONVILLE@ (114) NEW ORLEANS | 2015-12-27 16:05:00 - 2015-12-27 16:05:00
Play AGAINST JACKSONVILLE ?>in the first halfin All games when playing against a team with a losing record
The record is 1 Wins and 10 Losses for the last two seasons (-10 units)

NFL > (109) CAROLINA@ (110) ATLANTA | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play ON CAROLINA ?>in the first halfin All games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 9 Wins and 1 Losses for the this season (+7.9 units)

NFL > (129) PITTSBURGH@ (130) BALTIMORE | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play AGAINST BALTIMORE ?>in the first halfin All games in December games
The record is 0 Wins and 7 Losses for the last two seasons (-7.7 units)

NFL > (113) JACKSONVILLE@ (114) NEW ORLEANS | 2015-12-27 16:05:00 - 2015-12-27 16:05:00
Play AGAINST JACKSONVILLE ?>in the first halfin All games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season
The record is 0 Wins and 7 Losses for the last two seasons (-7.7 units)

NFL > (109) CAROLINA@ (110) ATLANTA | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play ON CAROLINA ?>in the first halfin All games after 2 or more consecutive wins
The record is 10 Wins and 2 Losses for the this season (+7.8 units)

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NFL TOTALS

NFL > (109) CAROLINA@ (110) ATLANTA | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the totalin All games in all lined games
The record is 2 Overs and 12 Unders for the this season (+9.8 units)

NFL > (109) CAROLINA@ (110) ATLANTA | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the total in all games
The record is 2 Overs and 12 Unders for the this season (+9.8 units)

NFL > (117) CLEVELAND@ (118) KANSAS CITY | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play UNDER CLEVELAND on the totalin All games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season
The record is 0 Overs and 8 Unders for the last two seasons (+8 units)

NFL > (117) CLEVELAND@ (118) KANSAS CITY | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play UNDER CLEVELAND on the totalin All games in December games
The record is 0 Overs and 7 Unders for the last two seasons (+7 units)

NFL > (109) CAROLINA@ (110) ATLANTA | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Play OVER CAROLINA on the totalin Road games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 9 Overs and 1 Unders for the last two seasons (+7.9 units)

[StarDust Bum]

NFL TOP POWERLINES

NFL > (117) CLEVELAND @ (118) KANSAS CITY | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Line: KANSAS CITY-11 BTB PowerLine: KANSAS CITY-21
Edge On: KANSAS CITY (10)

NFL > (109) CAROLINA @ (110) ATLANTA | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Line: CAROLINA BTB PowerLine: CAROLINA12
Edge On: CAROLINA (5.5)

NFL > (121) NEW ENGLAND @ (122) NY JETS | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Line: NEW ENGLAND BTB PowerLine: NEW ENGLAND5
Edge On: NEW ENGLAND (3)

NFL > (111) DALLAS @ (112) BUFFALO | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Line: BUFFALO-6 BTB PowerLine: BUFFALO-7
Edge On: BUFFALO (1)

NFL > (129) PITTSBURGH @ (130) BALTIMORE | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Line: PITTSBURGH BTB PowerLine: PITTSBURGH11
Edge On: PITTSBURGH (0.5)

NFL > (115) SAN FRANCISCO @ (116) DETROIT | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Line: SAN FRANCISCO BTB PowerLine: SAN FRANCISCO-8
Edge On: SAN FRANCISCO (1)

NFL > (119) INDIANAPOLIS @ (120) MIAMI | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Line: MIAMI-2 BTB PowerLine: MIAMI-4
Edge On: MIAMI (2)

NFL > (123) HOUSTON @ (124) TENNESSEE | 2015-12-27 13:00:00 - 2015-12-27 13:00:00
Line: HOUSTON BTB PowerLine: HOUSTON5
Edge On: HOUSTON (1.5)

NFL > (113) JACKSONVILLE @ (114) NEW ORLEANS | 2015-12-27 16:05:00 - 2015-12-27 16:05:00
Line: JACKSONVILLE BTB PowerLine: JACKSONVILLE-1
Edge On: JACKSONVILLE (1.5)

NFL > (127) ST LOUIS @ (128) SEATTLE | 2015-12-27 16:25:00 - 2015-12-27 16:25:00
Line: SEATTLE-12 BTB PowerLine: SEATTLE-20
Edge On: SEATTLE (8)

NFL > (125) GREEN BAY @ (126) ARIZONA | 2015-12-27 16:25:00 - 2015-12-27 16:25:00
Line: ARIZONA-5.5 BTB PowerLine: ARIZONA-10
Edge On: ARIZONA (4.5)

NFL > (105) NY GIANTS @ (106) MINNESOTA | 2015-12-27 20:30:00 - 2015-12-27 20:30:00
Line: NY GIANTS BTB PowerLine: NY GIANTS-4
Edge On: NY GIANTS (2.5)

NFL > (131) CINCINNATI @ (132) DENVER | 2015-12-28 20:30:00 - 2015-12-28 20:30:00
Line: CINCINNATI BTB PowerLine: CINCINNATI2
Edge On: CINCINNATI (5)

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 27

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


CAR at ATL 01:00 PM

ATL +7.0 DOUBLE PLAY

O 46.5 DOUBLE PLAY


CLE at KC 01:00 PM

CLE +11.5

U 42.0


PIT at BAL 01:00 PM

PIT -10.5

O 47.5


NE at NYJ 01:00 PM

NE -2.5

U 45.0


DAL at BUF 01:00 PM

BUF -6.5 TRIPLE PLAY

U 42.0 TRIPLE PLAY


CHI at TB 01:00 PM

TB -3.0

O 44.0


HOU at TEN 01:00 PM

HOU -3.5 BLOW OUT

U 39.0


IND at MIA 01:00 PM

MIA -2.0

O 43.5


SF at DET 01:00 PM

SF +8.5 *****

O 43.0 *****

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 16
December 26, 2015


After watching the ‘under’ produced an eye opening 12-4 (75%) mark in Week 14, total bettors saw the ‘over’ rebound with a solid 10-6 (63%) record last weekend. After 15 weeks, the ‘over/under’ results stand at 110-110-4 and that shows how you back and forth the totals market has been this season.

Closing Strong

The old adage “Offense wins games, Defense wins championships” could be tossed out the window this season, especially when you look at the hottest teams in the league. Along with the unbeaten Carolina Panthers, there are three other clubs that have been perfect the last five weeks and two of them (Cardinals, Chiefs) have ripped off eight straight wins.

The one thing they all have in common right now is potent offensive units and those efforts have resulted in a combined ‘over’ record of 12-8. Also, savvy bettors that enjoy playing team totals have seen the ‘over’ produce an eye-opening 17-3 mark for this quartet.

Will those trends continue this weekend?

As Micah Roberts noted in his Vegas Money Moves piece, the public is backing them again.

-- Kansas City is averaging 28.2 PPG in its last five games and 29.3 PPG in its last eight.

-- Carolina leads the league in offense at 32.1 PPG and it hasn’t slowed down at all, averaging 38.8 PPG in its last five victories.

-- Arizona’s attack tempered off a bit between Week 13 and 15 but it silenced any doubts with a 40-point effort last Sunday.

-- Seattle’s offense has been very efficient during its current five-game winning streak, averaging 34.2 PPG. The ‘under’ has cashed the last two weeks but those results were helped with great defensive efforts (9.5 PPG).

-- Pittsburgh is just behind this group with a 4-1 record the last five weeks and 5-1 in its last six. The offense has been lights out, averaging 35 PPG during this stretch and that’s helped the ‘over’ go 5-1.

AFC vs. NFC

The ‘under’ went 4-2 in the six non-conference games last weekend and is now 40-20-2 (67%) on the season.

We have two more games on tap this weekend and it’s hard to justify ‘over’ plays based on the quarterback situations for a couple of the teams in action:

Jacksonville at New Orleans
Dallas at Buffalo

Divisional Battles

Including the first two primetime games this week, we only have seven divisional games in Week 16 and four of the final five will be played in the early session on Sunday.

Carolina at Atlanta: Two weeks ago, the Panthers blasted the Falcons 38-0 and ‘under’ (45) bettors were helped with no points scored in the fourth quarter. Including this result, the ‘under’ has cashed in five straight in this series and Atlanta enters this game on a 10-0 ‘under’ streak. Despite those stats, this week’s total is shaded a tad higher and while Carolina (32.1 PPG) has a great shot to do its job, you should be hesitant backing Atlanta’s inconsistent offense (21.6 PPG).

New England at N.Y. Jets: The Patriots held off the Jets 30-23 in Week 7 and the ‘over’ (47) connected for the eighth time in the last 10 meetings between the pair. The Jets defense has buckled down the last two weeks albeit against rookie and backup signal callers. New England has scored 27-plus in 12 of its 14 games but the lower total (45 ½) on this game suggests a tightly contested affair here.

Houston at Tennessee: Due to the QB situation for both teams, you’re better off passing both the side and total on this game. In the first meeting, the Texans defeated the Titans 20-6 on Nov. 1 at home and the ‘under’ (43) hit easily.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore: The ‘over’ is on a 5-4-1 in this series but the numbers in those games were all lower than this week’s total of 47 ½. The Steelers offense (see above) has scored 30-plus in six straight games while the Ravens have a combined 33 points in their last three games. On paper, this game is a mismatch but we all know that when it looks too easy, it usually isn’t!

St. Louis at Seattle: As noted above, the Seahawks are rolling right now on both sides of the ball. The Rams have won two straight while scoring 21 and 31 points and for those still following, this game does fit the “Thursday Night System” angle which hasn’t been profitable this season. St. Louis nipped Seattle 34-31 in Week 1 and the ‘over’ cashed easily but the ‘under’ has cashed in three straight meetings at CenturyLink Field.

Under the Lights

The ‘over’ went 3-1 in the four primetime games last week and all of those results were never in doubt. This past Thursday’s game between the Raiders and Chargers slid ‘under’ the number but it did have chances. Including that result, the ‘under’ stands at 28-20 (58%) in the night games and it looks like that number could improve with this week’s slate.

N.Y. Giants at Minnesota: When you look at the strong ‘under’ (10-3-1) numbers for Minnesota, it makes you believe that this week’s total (45) seems too high. Especially, with the Giants missing its best offensive weapon (Beckham) on the outside. However, even though Vikings coach Mike Zimmer has stressed defense and the running game, the team closed last season with a 3-2 ‘over’ mark and its 2-1 to the ‘over’ in its last three games this season. Also, everybody has had success against the atrocious defense of the Giants, which is ranked last in yards allowed (423) and 23rd in points (25.6).

Cincinnati at Denver: What once looked like a must-see matchup now appears to be a preseason matchup when you look at the players under center. This is the lowest total (39 ½) on the board and deservingly so with the defensive units of the Bengals (17.4 PPG) and Broncos (18.5 PPG). Denver is coming off a 34-27 shootout loss at Pittsburgh and bettors should be aware that the Broncos haven’t seen back-to-back ‘over’ tickets this season. Plus, the ‘under’ is 4-1-1 at Sports Authority Field this season and it could easily be a perfect 6-0 if it wasn’t for a couple late surges.

Fearless Predictions

We’ve all learned that you can’t handicap turnovers or penalties and that’s what doomed one of our losses as the Bengals scored 21 points in a three-minute span against the 49ers. That’s gambling and the deficit was two dollars ($200) on the week and four times that amount ($800) on the season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck and I wish you all a great Christmas and New Year!

Best Over: San Francisco-Detroit 43

Best Under: Chicago-Tampa Bay 46

Best Team Total: Over Falcons 21 ½

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 38 Carolina-Atlanta
Over 34 San Francisco-Detroit
Under 48 ½ Cincinnati-Denver

[StarDust Bum]

Week 16 Tip Sheet
December 26, 2015

Panthers (-7, 47 ½) at Falcons – 1:00 PM EST

Only two victories stand between the Panthers (14-0 SU, 10-4 ATS) and a perfect regular season. Ron Rivera’s team squandered a 35-7 lead over the Giants last Sunday, but Graham Gano kicked the game-winning field goal to lift Carolina to its 14th straight victory in a 38-35 triumph. Carolina failed to cash as 4 ½-point road favorites as the Panthers are 0-2 ATS in the past two games away from Charlotte. The Panthers have won five of the past six matchups with the Falcons, including a 38-0 shutout of Atlanta at Bank of America Stadium two weeks ago.

It’s very difficult to go nine consecutive games without a cover, but the Falcons (7-7 SU, 5-9 ATS) accomplished that dubious feat from mid-October through mid-December. However, Atlanta finally picked up an ATS win in last Sunday’s 23-17 triumph at Jacksonville as two-point underdogs, while snapping a six-game losing streak. Atlanta cashed another ‘under’ to improve to 9-0-1 to the ‘under’ the last 10 contests, as Dan Quinn’s club has finished ‘under’ the total in five of six games at the Georgia Dome. The Falcons have covered six of the last seven in the role of a home underdog since November 2013, including a 26-24 victory over the Eagles as three-point ‘dogs in the season opener.

Patriots (-3, 46) at Jets – 1:00 PM EST

Following a two-game losing streak, New England (12-2 SU, 7-5-2 ATS) has bounced back with consecutive double-digit victories over Houston and Tennessee. Tom Brady has thrown for less than 300 yards in four of the last five games, but the four-time Super Bowl champion quarterback has tossed 11 touchdowns in this span. The Patriots can clinch home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs with a win, as Bill Belichick’s club has won in three of the last four visits to Met Life Stadium.

The Jets (9-5 SU, 7-5-2 ATS) are still alive for a playoff berth in the AFC, but the Chiefs and Steelers have the inside track on the two Wild Card spots. New York is riding a four-game winning streak, although all four victories in this stretch have come against teams currently below the .500 mark, including a 19-16 triumph at Dallas last Saturday. Todd Bowles’ squad looks to avenge a 30-23 defeat at Gillette Stadium in Week 7, as the Jets led 20-16 in the fourth quarter prior to a pair of Brady touchdown passes.

Texans (-3 ½, 41) at Titans – 1:00 PM EST

The sloppy AFC South race can finally crown a champion on Sunday with a combination of a Houston win and an Indianapolis loss at Miami. The Texans (7-7 SU, 7-7 ATS) picked up a huge road victory against the Colts in Week 15 to grab a one-game edge in the division, but lost quarterback T.J. Yates to a torn ACL. Now, Houston will turn to its fourth starting quarterback of the season in Week 16, as former Cowboy Brandon Weeden gets the call under center. Weeden threw the go-ahead touchdown pass to Jaelen Strong in the fourth quarter of last Sunday’s 16-10 win at Indianapolis to improve to 3-1 in the AFC South.

Tennessee (3-11 SU, 4-9-1 ATS) hopes to avoid the worst record in the NFL with two games remaining, but will be without its top pick from last season’s draft on Sunday. Rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota suffered a right knee injury in a 33-16 loss at New England last week and is out against Houston. Zach Mettenberger will start in Mariota’s place, as the Titans look for revenge from a 20-6 setback at Houston in Week 8 as 3 ½-point underdogs. The Titans have lost six of the last seven matchups with the Texans since 2012, while Tennessee owns a dreadful 1-6 SU and 2-4-1 ATS record at Nissan Stadium this season.

Packers at Cardinals (-4 ½, 50 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

Both these teams are headed to the NFC playoffs, but seeding is still undetermined. Arizona (12-2 SU, 8-6 ATS) can clinch a first-round bye with a victory on Sunday, coming off a 40-17 rout of Philadelphia last week to wrap up the NFC West title. Since losing at Pittsburgh in mid-October, Bruce Arians’ club has ripped off eight consecutive victories, but the Cardinals are just 4-4 ATS in this span. Arizona has failed to cover in each of its last four games at University of Phoenix Stadium, as three of those contests were decided by three points or less.

For the seventh consecutive season, the Packers (10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS) are headed to the playoffs, as Green Bay stands one victory plus a Minnesota loss away from an NFC North championship. Following a 1-4 slump in November, Mike McCarthy’s team has rebounded with three straight wins, capped off by a 30-20 triumph at Oakland last Sunday as four-point favorites. Since back-to-back ugly showings at Denver and Carolina, the Packers have won three consecutive road games, while making its first visit to Arizona since a 51-45 overtime loss in the Wild Card round of the 2009 playoffs.

Rams at Seahawks (-12, 40 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

Some of the top teams in the NFC are playing its best football in December, which includes the two-time defending NFC champion Seahawks. Seattle (9-5 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) has won seven of its past eight games, while covering in each of its last five contests overall. Pete Carroll’s club cashed as a double-digit favorite for the second straight game, pounding Cleveland at home, 30-13 to cover as 14 ½-point chalk. Russell Wilson has been on fire during this five-game hot streak for Seattle, putting together an incredible 19-0 touchdown to interception ratio, including 10 scoring strikes to wide receiver Doug Baldwin.

It’s probably too little, too late for the Rams (6-8 SU, 6-7-1 ATS) to salvage their season with a potential move to Los Angeles next season. However, St. Louis has won each of its last two games at home against Detroit and Tampa Bay to finish with a 5-3 record at the Edward Jones Dome. The first of those five victories came in the season opener against Seattle in overtime, 34-31 to cash as 3 ½-point underdogs. The Rams haven’t much luck in the Pacific Northwest, dropping 10 straight visits to Seattle dating back to 2004, including a 2-8 ATS mark.

[StarDust Bum]

LATE GAMES:

JAC at NO 04:05 PM

NO -2.5 TRIPLE PLAY

O 53.0 TRIPLE PLAY


GB at ARI 04:25 PM

GB +6.0 DOUBLE PLAY

U 50.0 *****


STL at SEA 04:25 PM

SEA -12.0 BLOW OUT

U 42.0 BLOW OUT


NYG at MIN 08:30 PM

NYG +6.5 DOUBLE PLAY

O 44.0 DOUBLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Westgate Super Contest (1,727 entrants-- prize pool is $2.5M)
Most popular picks in Week 16 season record: 50-46-2

Redskins (+3) were 4th most popular pick; they played Saturday night- W.

7) Browns +12 (335)-- People showing faith in big underdogs this week- W.

6) Rams +13.5 (353)-- St Louis lost its last ten visits to King County- W.

5) Patriots -3 (411)-- Don't get many chances at New England -3- L.

3) Vikings -4.5 (431)-- Going to be a frigid night in the Twin Cities.- W.

2) Steelers -10 (437)-- Jimmy Clausen is 0-3 against spread this year- L.

1) Broncos -3.5 (446)-- Denver could actually still miss the playoffs.

**********

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday........

13) Rams 23, Seahawks 17-- St Louis sweeps Seahawks for first time in 11 years; at 7-8, Rams are finishing strong, but when they go 3-1 vs Arizona/Seattle and miss the playoffs, its an empty feeling. St Louis was +3 in turnovers; last two weeks, teams with +2 or better turnover ratio are 14-0 SU.

12) Bears 26, Buccaneers 21-- Tampa Bay faded down stretch, losing four of last five games; in those five games, Bucs started 37 drives 80+ yards from goal line, their opponents only 20. Bad special teams, lousy on 3rd down (9 of last 29). Up 14-13 in third quarter with ball in red zone, Winston threw an awful INT, giving up an easy FG. Chicago dominated game from that point on.

11) Falcons 20, Panthers 13-- First loss of season for Carolina; not sure it is worst thing, takes some pressure off- they can rest banged-up guys next week. Atlanta was eliminated when the Giants got beat in Minnesota last night- they started season 5-0, so missing the playoffs.makes this season a crummy one.

10) Bills 16, Cowboys 6-- Buffalo hosts the Jets next week, with chance to knock Rex Ryan's old team out of playoffs. Dallas is 1-10 with backup QB starting this year, and they used three of them. Broncos (Week 5) are only team this year to win a game they didn't score an offensive TD in, when other team did- Broncos also won a game in Week 1 when neither team scored an offensive TD.

9) Saints 38, Jaguars 27-- New Orleans had 10 drives; five TDs, three FGs, not good day for Jaguars, who have now lost four of last five games. If you're the Saints, would you trade your coach for a draft pick and if so, how high a pick would you want? Lot of rumors out there that the Dolphins/Colts are interested in Sean Payton.

8) Lions 32, 49ers 17-- Detroit won five of last seven games; if they're smart, they get rid of Jim Caldwell anyway, hire a defensive-minded coach who will keep OC Cooter on his staff. 49ers are 2-9 vs spread in its 11 losses, 4-8 vs the spread as an underdog of 6+ points. They must've really not liked Jim Harbaugh to fire him.

7) Chiefs 17, Browns 13-- Chiefs won last nine games (7-2 against spread) have made playoffs despite starting season 1-5. Cleveland lost nine of last ten games (2-8 against spread) as another dismal season comes to an end. This is good time to point out that all 16 games next weekend will be divisional rivalry games.

6) Colts 18, Dolphins 12-- Miami lost seven of last nine games (1-8 vs spread); their next coach will be a big name- they had ball in red zone five times in this game, scored only 12 points. Indy is still alive for playoff spot; they host hapless Titans, Houston plays Jacksonville. Still baffled how Ryan Tannehill never gets benched.

5) Jets 26, Patriots 20 OT-- I'm pretty sure last NFL coach who chose to kick off to start OT was Marty Mornhinweg, who got fired shortly thereafter; if defense keeps Jets out of EZ on first drive, no one says a word. They didn't.

Tom Brady used to date actress Bridget Moynihan- they had a kid together- the young man's name is John Edward Thomas, as in J-E-T. Not a coincidence. Apparently Ms Moynihan holds a grudge-- hope she bet the Jets in this game.

4) Texans 34, Titans 6-- Houston won six of its last eight games, despite using five QBs this season- they could be tough out in AFC playoffs. Tennessee lost six of its last seven games (0-6-1 vs spread); they're 1-10 vs spread when scoring less than 33 points. How happy will Jerry Jones be when Brandon Weeden starts a playoff game?

3) Cardinals 38, Packers 8-- Next week's Sunday night game: Vikings-Packers, so for second week in row, a game in frigid conditions gets moved from noon to 7:30pm local time kickoff. Does no one care about fans who buy tickets? Packers' OL was useless in this game. Arizona won last nine games; they were -3 in turnovers in both their losses- they're the best team in the NFL right now.

2) Ravens 20, Steelers 17-- Steelers now need to win in Cleveland and get help from Buffalo next week to make playoffs. Ravens found a competent backup QB in Mallett, who was cut by Houston when he missed plane to Miami game, after he took a day off when Hoyer was named starter this summer.

1) Vikings 49, Giants 17-- Tank job by Giants, who were eliminated when Redskins won Saturday night. If you owned the Giants and it was your money being spent, do you bring Tom Coughlin back as coach? It was pretty much assumed in the media last summer that if he missed the playoffs this year it was sayonara.

And if you do fire a coach who won two Super Bowls, who do you bring in who will be better? Do you fire the GM, who hasn't drafted well? Interesting questions.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Monday, December 28

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Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Bengals at Broncos
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If the Bengals win, they clinch a bye. If the Broncos win, they clinch a playoff spot.


Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-3.5, 39)

Both starting quarterbacks have been lost to injury, but the stakes are still high in Monday night's clash between the visiting Cincinnati Bengals and the Denver Broncos. Despite losing starter Andy Dalton to a fractured right thumb two weeks ago, the Bengals can wrap up the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye in the postseason with a victory.

Cincinnati, which holds a one-game edge over Denver and is one game behind New England for the best record in the AFC, can also wrap up the AFC North with a win. "It will be fun, it's a great opportunity," Bengals coach Marvin Lewis said. "Both teams have earned it, and we've got to have at it." Brock Osweiler will make his sixth consecutive start in place of Peyton Manning for Denver, which blew a 17-point halftime lead in a 34-27 defeat at Pittsburgh last weekend. The Broncos still have a chance at the No. 2 seed but also had their lead cut to one game over Kansas City in the AFC West.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Broncos opened as 3.5-point home favorites and were bet down to -3, but have come back up to the opening number. The total opened at 41 and has since come down 2-points to now sit at 39.

INJURY REPORT:

Bengals - WR A. Green (probable Monday, back), T J. Fisher (questionable Monday, concussion), S G. Iloka (questionable Monday, knee), WR M. Alford (questionable Monday, personal), TE T. Eifert (out Monday, concussion), QB A. Dalton (out indefinitely, thumb).

Broncos - RB C. Anderson (probable Monday, back), QB B. Osweiler (probable Monday, shoulder), S T. Ward (questionable Monday, ankle), S O. Bolden (questionable Monday, groin), S D. Stewart (questionable Monday, hamstring), LB L. McCray (questionable Monday, hamstring), QB P. Manning (out Monday, foot).

WEATHER REPORT: It will be a chilly night in Denver. It will be a clear night, but temperatures will be in the low 20's to high teens for the game.

POWER RANKINGS: Bengals (-3) - Broncos (-3) + home field (-3) = Broncos -3

CAPPERS SAY: "Despite the fact that TE Tyler Eifert didn?t play and AJ Green limped off the field early, backup QB AJ McCarron looked solid even with a VERY conservative gameplan at San Francisco. As for Denver, after going 8-8 on third downs while racking up 27 first half points against the Steelers, Brock Osweiler?s second half was ugly: 7-26 for 82 yards, with only one third down conversion."

ABOUT THE BENGALS (11-3, 11-2-1 ATS, 7-7 O/U): A.J. McCarron threw for two touchdowns and two interceptions in relief of Dalton in a loss to Pittsburgh, but was solid in a 24-14 win at San Francisco with 192 yards on 15-of-21 despite the absence of star tight end Tyler Eifert and limited nature of top wideout A.J. Green. With Eifert set to miss a second straight game due to a concussion and Cincinnati's ground game struggling the past two weeks, McCarron will have his hands full with the league's top-ranked defense. The Bengals are no slouches on the other side of the ball, allowing a league-low 17.4 points per game.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (10-4, 8-6 ATS, 5-8-1 O/U): Osweiler threw for three touchdowns and ran for another in the first half alone against Pittsburgh, but for the third straight week he was unable to put any points on the scoreboard in the second half as Denver lost its second in a row. The running game has not been much of a factor all season, but Emmanuel Sanders came alive with 10 catches for 181 yards and a touchdown and fellow wideout Demaryius Thomas had a pair of scoring receptions. The Broncos were torched by Pittsburgh's passing game, but they are tied for the league lead with 47 sacks and feature the No. 1 run defense.

TRENDS:

* Bengals are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games.
* Broncos are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 Monday games.
* Under is 4-1 in Bengals last 5 vs. AFC.
* Under is 5-1-1 in Broncos last 7 home games.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-seven percent of bettors are backing the Broncos in this Monday night matchup. As for the total, 61 percent of wagers are on the over.