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**StarDust Bum** · 12-22-2015, 11:31 AM

Bettors dominate Week 15
December 21, 2015

After nine straight NFL Sunday’s of getting beat by the Las Vegas sports books, bettors exacted revenge in Week 15 with a furious assault on the posted numbers that led to a massive losing day for the house while turning it into a great Christmas gift for the masses. .

“Our worst day of the year,” said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. “We got stuck big with parlays.“

It was almost as if St. Nick himself had been watching the one-sided relationship between NFL bettors and the sports books the past two months and had seen enough of the little guy getting pushed around. Coal in the stocking for the naughty and greedy sports books while the public get cheer and jolly for Christmas.

By no means are the books to be painted out as some kind of villain or Grinch, because all they do is post the numbers and let bettors choose who they want.

It’s pretty simple, the books set the numbers on all the games and you give them money and then pick one side or the other. But where the books make all their money throughout the year is the exotic wagers such as parlays, where a bettor can make a lot for a small amount wagered by tying a couple team together.

Betting parlays was a profitable strategy early on in the season when the public won three of the first five weeks. But after the books ironed out the numbers with five weeks of data, the popular public teams were tougher to win with weekly.

Instead of laying -9 on a public team, you lay -11 and it doesn’t seem like that big of a deal until that team wins by 10.

For the past nine weeks, bettors couldn’t get that one week where four or five of their favorite teams all covered at the same time, but on Sunday all the stars seemed to align and it was the setting for the perfect storm -- in particular with the final six games of the day where all the favorites covered the spread.

Things started out decent for the for most of the books with the first seven games, especially when one of the most popular bets of the day blew a 28-point lead late in the third quarter. Carolina was a 4.5-point road favorite against the Giants. Sharps took the points, but the public loved Carolina and bet them at 80 percent clip at William Hill sports books.

With just over a minute in the game the Giants had come roaring back to a 35-35 tie, but Cam Newton came right back down the field so effortlessly and led the Panthers to a game winning field goal, 38-25. Sharps win, but the books beat out what was the early root parlay game tied to so many others. However, the Panthers teaser covered and was live and tied to popular big early favorites like Kansas City and New England which had also covered the regular spread.

When the final morning games were posted, the books could see that perfect storm brewing. Only six games were left on the Sunday schedule, but they hadn’t banked the type of money they usually do from the early games to absorb a possible afternoon hit. They won early with Atlanta -- finally -- which was the Falcons first cover in 10 games and Carolina didn‘t cover, but the carryover risk with parlays and teasers was extensive and the storm was brewing.

Usually as each game is posted final, a little bit of risk falls off other games that haven’t kicked off as the system instantly calculates the parlay and teaser risk. But on Sunday, those late games all stayed relatively the same, and the big powder keg of dynamite was all pointing to Arizona laying -3.5 in the isolated night game at Philadelphia. Everyone seemed to love the Cardinals on Sunday.

If the books could just manage winning two of the five afternoon games, a lot of that risk tied to Arizona would die down.

Ideally, the best scenario for the books would be Oakland and Denver covering, and the Broncos gave it their all with a 27-13 halftime lead at Pittsburgh, but would lose 34-27, the second straight week Denver failed to score in the second-half of a loss after leading at the half. The Steelers closed on the board at -7.5, but the majority of the wagers had been made at -6.5, including all the parlay cards. Bettors saw this as divine intervention after getting hosed on the Panthers game.

One by one the negative results started popping in and covering for the public and a couple by the narrowest of margins:

Seahawks (-14.5) beat the Browns 30-13
Packers (-4) win 30-20 at the Raiders
Chargers (-1) beat the Dolphins 30-14
Bengals (-6) win 24-14 at the 49ers

And then of course Pittsburgh.

Tie all those in to the Patriots and Chiefs from the morning and you’re looking at hefty seven-team parlay at 75/1 odds that many were holding.

Double that payout with a Cardinals cover!

For a teaser perspective the books had no shot on the day. Take all seven of those popular plays and then add the Panthers to the mix covering. Then take it a step further when most of those games had each side win on a teaser like the Raiders, Broncos, Giants and Browns.

In the Green Bay-Oakland and Tennessee-New England games, the all-way four team teaser hit when including totals.

After posting all the late favorite covers, the risk doubled in size for the Cardinals. The books couldn’t get out of a loss even if Philadelphia won by 4-points to beat the massive Cardinals teaser risk, or even if the game stayed UNDER 51.5 -- everyone seemed to have the OVER.

It’s an awful in time for the sports book boss from the time the last games posted in the afternoon until kickoff happens for the night game knowing you’re in the hole for $300,000 (hypothetical) and you’re going to lose $300,000 more if Arizona and OVER gets there. An Eagles win only loses $75,000, so that’s the best scenario to hope for. But then the game comes on and you don’t want to watch the train wreck happen, but you can’t take your eyes off it. And then sure enough, Arizona goes off with one big play after another and wins 40-17.

Worst off for the book boss is that he’s got to try and explain to the president or CEO of the company what happened Sunday. Executives were depending on the books to have one more great NFL Sunday before the fourth-quarter and fiscal year closes. Now, no matter what happens next Sunday -- the final Sunday of 2015 -- it won’t make up for the losses in Week 15.

Collectively from what I heard around town, I’d feel comfortable estimating that the Las Vegas books lost around $4 million and that may be a low estimate. I don’t ever ask the books for real win-loss numbers -- it’s always vague terms, but between seeing how Sunday shaped up and being in the same boat without an oar several times myself, I’m usually not far off. Parlays and teasers can do some serious damage.

Yes, it was a rough day for the sports books, but shed no tears. They’ll be back next week ready to take back some of those winnings. So have the merriest of Christmas courtesy of the sports books via the Cardinals, Steelers, Packers and the rest of the Week 15 vengeance gang.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-22-2015, 11:34 AM

Short spread hits the board as Jets host Patriots in key Week 16 NFL matchup

New England (12-2 SU, 7-5-2 ATS) has put a two-game SU hiccup behind it with a pair of easy victories, including Sunday’s 33-16 win over Tennessee as hefty 14.5-point home chalk.

If the New York Jets want to go to the playoffs, or at least stay firmly in the chase, they’re going to have to do something they’ve done just once since the beginning of the 2011 season.

Beat the New England Patriots.

As the NFL hits Week 16, the Jets-Pats matchup is among several key contests with playoff implications. The Jets are just 1-8 SU in their last eight meetings with New England, most recently losing 30-23 as 7-point road underdogs back in October. That began a 1-4 SU and 0-4-1 ATS skid, but New York has since rebounded to go 4-0 SU (3-0-1 ATS) and get the season back on track.

On Saturday night, the Jets (9-5 SU, 7-5-2 ATS) edged Dallas 19-16 on a last-minute field goal to push as 3-point road favorites.

Meanwhile, New England (12-2 SU, 7-5-2 ATS) has put a two-game SU hiccup behind it with a pair of easy victories, including Sunday’s 33-16 win over Tennessee as hefty 14.5-point home chalk.

John Lester, senior lines manager for Bookmaker.eu, installed the Pats as a 3-point favorite.

“We’re expecting another tight game between these two teams,” Lester said. “We opened the Jets too high in the first matchup, but they’ve earned our respect since. This is a good line that we don’t think will move too much, and it may not attract much interest from the sharp bettors.”

Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas, wouldn’t be surprised if Tom Brady’s arm gets another big workout in this game.

“In the first meeting this season, New England’s game plan was to pass and abandon the run. Brady threw 54 times and the running backs got only nine carries for 16 yards,” Avello said. “You can understand why, as the Jets’ pass defense is in the bottom third of the league. It’ll be a short spread for this one – the Pats by around a field goal.”

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (-4.5)

Two teams that have already punched their playoff tickets get a nice tune-up in the desert.

If not for Carolina’s improbable perfect season in progress, Arizona (12-2 SU, 8-6 ATS) would be all the rage in the NFC. Carson Palmer and Co. have ripped off eight consecutive SU wins (4-4 ATS), including Sunday night’s 40-17 shelling of Philadelphia as 3.5-point road faves.

Green Bay (10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS) is on a 4-1 SU and ATS stretch, winning and cashing its last three in a row. The Packers topped Oakland 30-20 Sunday as a 4-point road chalk.

With Arizona having played late Sunday, the line is still in the works.

“These two may be playing again in a few weeks, so this is a good ‘get to know you’ game,” Avello said. “The game actually does have meaning, as the second seed in the NFC and first place in the NFC North are both still undecided. This is Sunday’s showcase game.”

Lester said the Cards will certainly be favored, which could get the public on Green Bay.

“We’ll look to make Arizona around 4-point favorites,” Lester said. “The public should be looking to back the Pack getting points. It’s the second straight West Coast game for Green Bay, and the Cardinals are crazy good at home.”

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-3.5)

Two weeks ago, Denver was the AFC’s No. 1 seed – with a backup quarterback, no less – and had a home date against Oakland looking like a sure win. But the Broncos blew that game by getting just four field goals in a 15-12 loss laying 6 points, and on Sunday at Pittsburgh, Denver failed to score a second-half point, turning a 27-13 lead into a 34-27 loss catching 7.5 points.

So Denver (10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS) is now the No. 3 seed, and only a game ahead of red-hot Kansas City in the AFC West.

Cincinnati (11-3 SU, 11-2-1 ATS) was without Andy Dalton (broken thumb), but had enough in the tank to beat hapless San Francisco 24-14 giving 7 points on the road Sunday.

“Two of the better defenses we have go at it on ‘Monday Night Football,’” Avello said. “Look for conservative game plans from both squads in what could end up being a playoff preview. These are pretty evenly matched teams on paper, so we accounted for Denver’s home-field advantage when setting this line.”

Avello expects Brock Osweiler to again start for Denver in place of the healing Peyton Manning, and he believes the Broncos will give Cincy backup QB A.J. McCarron some trouble.

“For turnover purposes, McCarron was mistake-free for Cincinnati against the 49ers, but that may be more difficult against a Denver team that just let two straight games slip away,” Avello said. “Osweiler and the Broncos should be focused for a game that will likely decide the AFC’s No. 2 seed.”

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

The Redskins finally gave the NFC East one team without a losing record, taking over first place with a 35-25 victory catching 2.5 points against visiting Buffalo on Sunday. That moved Washington to .500 at 7-7 SU and ATS.

But Philadelphia (6-8 SU and ATS) still controls its own destiny, even after getting shelled by Arizona 40-17 on Sunday night as a 3.5-point home pup. If the Eagles win out – on Saturday night against Washington and in Week 17 at the New York Giants – they win the NFC East.

Back in October, host Washington edged Philly 23-20 as a 3-point home pup.

“We have a round-robin tournament over the next two weeks to determine the NFC East winner,” Avello said. “The ‘Skins won the first meeting by a field goal, and that’s how the last three in this rivalry have been decided. Expect more of the same.”

Lester hadn’t yet posted a number, but has a small one in mind.

“The Eagles will be in the 3-point chalk range for this Saturday night showdown,” he said. “The Redskins are starting to look like the team that wants to grab this slow-paced NFC East race. That said, Philly seems to win games it shouldn’t, and Washington hasn’t been great on the road.”

**StarDust Bum** · 12-22-2015, 11:36 AM

Football bettors must react quickly to these NFL Week 16 odds

The Chiefs are the hottest team in the AFC and bettors may want to grab their Week 16 spread now before it gets even bigger.

Spread to bet now

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5)

There’s no hotter cover team in the league than the Kansas City Chiefs, who were left for dead on the side of the road in mid-October but now have run off eight straight SU wins, covering the spread in seven of them.

The Chiefs have beaten good teams (Denver, Pittsburgh), bad teams (Baltimore, San Diego, Detroit) and average teams (Oakland) as they beat all odds in crowding into the playoff picture. They’re 9-5 with the cupcake Browns headed into Arrowhead this Sunday, and laying 12.5 points doesn’t seem all that unreasonable given that Cleveland was beaten up in Seattle Sunday and is on its annual trek to nowhere. Early money is on Kansas City, so if you like the Chiefs to cover you best jump before the line hits 13.

Spread to wait on

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5)

Heavy early money is down on the Seahawks, who have won five straight and have locked down a playoff spot. But is the public wrong on this one? The Seahawks have little to play for other than wanting to keep the freight train rolling downhill, and St. Louis isn’t exactly cashing in its chips.

The Rams, who might be again calling Los Angeles home in a few months, have won two in a row and have covered the number in both. Problem is, St. Louis has played poorly against decent teams - one rare exception being its win over Seattle on opening day. Might be a good idea to hold off a bit on this one and see if the line budges a half a point either way.

Total to watch

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (41)

Interesting dilemma faced here by the Bengals, who desperately need to win this one to hold off the Broncos and secure a bye in the first round of the playoffs, hopefully giving QB Andy Dalton time to heal and get back on the field.

A.J. McCarron did OK (15/21, TD) in Cincinnati’s win over San Francisco, but Denver’s defense will be smarting after getting taken apart by the Steelers Sunday. It’s hard to see the Bronco defense laying two eggs in a row. Still, 41 is a low number for two teams with a decent amount of playmakers, so an Over play deserves a hard look.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-22-2015, 11:40 AM

NFL Week 16 Essentials
December 22, 2015

The penultimate week of the NFL season may start off slow on Christmas Eve, but features presents galore over the weekend, bringing the playoff picture into clearer focus. Here are Week 16’s gifts:

Thursday, Dec. 24

San Diego at Oakland: If you need a drinking game to get festive with your egg nog, count the number of times Los Angeles is mentioned in this broadcast. Warning: You may not make it to the second quarter. Since both teams are in the mix for the well-publicized move to the nation’s No. 2 market and eliminated from playoff contention, there isn’t much to get excited about here. The Chargers saw their injury-riddled season continue in last week’s finale at Qualcomm when they lost rookie RB Melvin Gordon for the season after hurting his knee. Danny Woodhead scored four touchdowns in the win over Miami and should again be featured here. The Raiders are likely playing their final game in Oakland and will look to close on a high note, but are just 2-5 at the Coliseum this season. They won in San Diego 37-29 in Week 7 but have lost six of the last eight in this series between AFC West rivals.

Saturday, Dec. 26

Washington at Philadelphia: The Eagles fell to Arizona on Sunday night, but still control their destiny as they look to claim the NFC East and avoid consecutive seasons without making the playoffs under head coach Chip Kelly. They won 10 games last year in just missing out. In 2015, the only way they won’t make it is if they fail to reach .500, which would make Kelly’s offseason overhaul of the roster in his first year controlling all personnel decisions a complete failure. Sam Bradford continued a disappointing run as the starting quarterback with another crucial turnover against the Cardinals, but did connect with Jordan Matthews and Zach Ertz, who are finally producing in the manner they were expected to when the season began.

Washington won the first meeting between these teams at home 23-20 in Week 4 and have prevailed in the last two meetings by scoring on its last possession. Kirk Cousins engineered a 15-play, 90-yard drive to play hero in that one and comes off his second four-touchdown game of the season in beating Buffalo 35-25 to give his team a 6-2 home record. The ‘Skins are just 1-5 on the road in large part because Cousins has thrown nine interceptions and just six TDs away from Landover this season. The Eagles are 3-4 at “the Linc” and would suffer their fourth losing season at home in the last five years if they fail to get this one.

Sunday, Dec. 27

Chicago at Tampa Bay: Jay Cutler commented that the Bears will get to see who in the locker room has character over the next few weeks, hoping to finish strong after a disappointing result in Minneapolis. With first-year coach John Fox and his staff improving chemistry in the locker room as well as the on-field product, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Chicago finish strong. The Bears are actually 4-3 on the road and had a streak of three straight road games snapped by the Vikings. The Bucs will also be out to demonstrate improvement behind rookie Jameis Winston, who will be looking to prevent the first three-game losing streak of his career. Tampa Bay RB Doug Martin is in the thick of the race for the rushing title, ranking second (1,305 yds), just nine yards behind Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson. He’s got a favorable matchup against a Chicago run defense that ranks 25th of 32, surrendering 125.9 yards per game.

Carolina at Atlanta: The Falcons snapped a six-game losing streak with a 23-17 win to keep their microscopic playoff hopes alive with a 23-17 win in Jacksonville, but the Falcons will need the Seahawks and Vikings to both lose out and a strength of schedule tie-breaker to come into play just to have a shot at not squandering a 5-0 start. The Panthers are obviously 14-0 and have a shot at perfection, but they’ve already clinched a playoff bye, leaving head coach Ron Rivera to make the decision of just how hard he intends to push key figures like Cam Newton, Luke Kuechly and Josh Norman these final two games. All are expected to start here, but the team could continue to be cautious with Jonathan Stewart (foot), leaving Fozzy Whitaker and Mike Tolbert to carry the load in the backfield. Newton threw five TD passes for the third time this season in Sunday’s 38-35 win over the Giants, but his highest-rated game in terms of QBR came in the 38-0 win over the Falcons on Dec. 13. Carolina won in Atlanta 34-3 last December, so it has really dominated its NFC South rival of late.

Dallas at Buffalo: This was supposed to be a dream matchup. It’s one of only two interconference matchups this week and should have affected both playoff races. Instead, you may as well call this the Disappointment Bowl given the heightened expectations both teams started the season with. Injuries have played a large role in the demise of both, but so has inconsistency. The Cowboys will turn to their fourth starting QB of the season as fourth-year pro Kellen Moore gets a chance to try and build off his NFL debut against the Jets, where he threw one touchdown and three picks but moved the offense far better than veteran Matt Cassel. Moore beat the Bills in the preseason finale as a member of the Lions, which caused Rex Ryan to comment, “he’s a little biddy lefty, what do you want me to say? Big deal.” Ryan needs to win out to avoid a losing season in his first year in Buffalo. He won’t have the services of RB LeSean McCoy to rely on since the Bills’ top offseason acquisition tore his MCL in the loss at Washington. Rookie Karlos Williams is expected to get the bulk of the work in his place.

San Francisco at Detroit: The 49ers continued their run as the lowest-scoring team in the NFL on Sunday, scoring just 14 points – all in the last 18 minutes after they already trailed 24-0 – in losing at home to Cincinnati. Blaine Gabbert threw three interceptions, his most this season, in falling to 2-4 as the 49ers starter. The Lions beat New Orleans 35-27 on Monday night and continue to show some fight, finally crawling out of last place in the NFC North after an 0-5 start. They still share the cellar with Chicago, but are that disastrous Packers Hail Mary loss away from wins in five of six. Matthew Stafford has thrown 14 TDs and just two interceptions during the run and set a Lions franchise record by completing 22-of-25 passes. San Francisco has won nine consecutive meetings in this series and 14 out of 15, but they haven’t played since 2012. Detroit’s win came in ’95.

Cleveland at Kansas City: Johnny Manziel had some nice moments in Sunday’s 30-13 loss in Seattle, but is now 2-3 as the Browns starting QB this season and has yet to win on the road, falling to 0-7 in his appearances in opposing stadiums as a pro. Arrowhead is always a daunting venue, so he’ll be up against it as the Chiefs look to continue their postseason push. After losing its first two home games, Kansas City has won three straight there, part of an incredible eight-game winning streak that was extended in a 34-14 win at Baltimore. The defense scored a pair of touchdowns, picked off two passes and added a fumble recovery despite playing without top pass-rusher Justin Houston, who isn’t likely to return from a knee injury this week. QB Alex Smith has thrown 10 TDs and just one interception to key his team’s current run.

Indianapolis at Miami: Andrew Luck (kidney) has already been ruled out for this contest, so it will be on Matt Hasselbeck, “beat up from the feet up,” in the words of head coach Chuck Pagano, to keep hope alive for the Colts. He suffered a jaw injury in the 16-10 home loss to Houston, so he’s now banged up his ribs, back over the last month. Charlie Whitehurst could be pressed into action in South Florida against Ndamakong Suh and a depleted defense that’s unlikely to get back DT Earl Mitchell (calf), LB Koa Misi (back) and LB Jelani Jenkins (ankle). That unit hasn’t been the same since losing edge rusher Cameron Wake, who still leads the Dolphins in sacks despite being lost on Oct. 29. The Chargers were the third team in four games to drop at least 30 on Miami, so the Colts have an opportunity to snap out of a slump that has seen them average 12 points over the last three games.

New England at N.Y. Jets: The Patriots have clinched a bye, but are still playing meaningful football as they look to ensure the AFC playoffs go through Gillette Stadium and not Cincinnati. They lost WR Danny Amendola to a knee injury that will keep him out here and saw key defensive players Dont’a Hightower and Patrick Chung leave their win over Tennessee, which means the Jets could be facing a depleted group since DB Devin McCourty was held out of last week’s win and may not play until the postseason. New York held off Dallas on Saturday night to move to 9-5, its largest win total since 2010. Bill Belichick has beaten the Jets in nine of the last 10, but got a great challenge from new head coach Todd Bowles in their first meeting, needing a Tom Brady-led fourth-quarter comeback to win 30-23 in Week 7. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 295 yards and two scores in that game while Brady threw for 355.

Houston at Tennessee: After ending a 13-year run of futility in Indianapolis, the Texans are now in the driver’s seat for an AFC South title and the playoff berth that comes with it. QB Brandon Weeden led a comeback after T.J. Yates suffered a torn ACL, but regular starter Brian Hoyer could clear concussion protocol and be available for this final road trip of the regular season. If he’s unable to, Weeden would start and newly-signed B.J. Daniels would serve as the backup. WR DeAndre Hopkins is up to 97 receptions, tied for fourth in the NFL. J.J. Watt ranks second in the league with 13.5 sacks and will be getting after Titans backup Zach Mettenberger since Marcus Mariota injured his knee last week and won’t play here. Mettenberger threw for a pair of scores and 242 yards in Sunday’s 33-16 loss to the Patriots, his most prolific numbers of the season. He started the 20-6 Nov. 1 loss in Houston because Mariota was also out and got sacked seven times. Whitney Mercilus took him down on four occasions. The Texans have won six of seven in this series.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore: One of the NFL’s best rivalries won’t pack the punch it usually does due to the Ravens falling off this season, but you can count on optimum effort from John Harbaugh’s group with the Steelers in town. Injuries have depleted Baltimore, which is expected to again start Jimmy Clausen over a banged-up Matt Schaub here to try and end a three-game losing streak in which they’ve been outscored 84-33. They’ve dropped five home games in a single season for the first time since 1997 and have never dropped six since moving to the city from Cleveland in ‘96. Joe Flacco led the Ravens to a 23-20 win in Pittsburgh back in Week 4 in a game that was started by Michael Vick. Ben Roethlisberger has since returned to action and led the Steelers to three straight wins, completing 40 passes in Sunday’s 34-27 win over Denver. Antonio Brown is the NFL’s leader in receiving yards (1,586) and ranks second behind Julio Jones (118) with 116 catches.

Jacksonville at New Orleans: The Jaguars still have an outside shot at the playoffs, needing to win out and have the Texans lose this week and the Colts to fall at home against Tennessee in Week 17. While unlikely, Jacksonville will set its highest win total since 2010 if it can claim a sixth victory in either of the next two weeks. Blake Bortles already has 31 touchdown passes, ranking among the league’s top five quarterbacks in that category. Second-year WR Allen Robinson is tied for the NFL lead with 13 touchdowns. RB T.J. Yeldon is hoping to return from a knee injury, which is key since backup Denard Robinson left Sunday’s loss with a foot sprain. The Saints come off a 35-27 Monday night home loss to Detroit where Drew Brees fired three TD passes despite dealing with a foot injury most of the game. A loss here would drop New Orleans to 3-5 at the Superdome, the same home record as last year.

Green Bay at Arizona: This is the top matchup of the week, pitting two teams still vying to be the No. 2 seed in the NFC. The Packers would need to win this game and their season finale while hoping the Cardinals fall to the Seahawks in Week 17, an entirely plausible scenario. Complicating matters for the home team is that key defensive back Tyrann Mathieu suffered a torn ACL in Sunday night’s win in Philadelphia, so they’ll have to find a way to replace someone who they plug into numerous roles. Aaron Rodgers has helped lead the Packers to three consecutive wins after the team dropped four of five, clinching a postseason berth with Sunday’s 30-20 win in Oakland. He’ll look to get more consistent play from his receivers here, but it will also be critical for the Green Bay defense to find a way to the second highest-scoring team in the NFL. Rookie RB David Johnson had 229 total yards and three TDs in the 41-17 win in Philly, blessing Arizona with another dynamic weapon.

St. Louis at Seattle: The Rams beat the Seahawks 34-31 in the season opener, but have since fallen well off the pace and have been eliminated from the playoff chase. They have won consecutive games for only the second time all season and are hoping to play spoiler here, but they haven’t won two straight in this series since 2004, falling in 17 of the last 21 meetings. St. Louis rookie RB Todd Gurley is third in the league with 1,023 rushing yards, but will be facing the NFL’s No. 3 rush defense here. He didn’t play in the first meeting. Neither did QB Case Keenum, who comes off a 14-for-17 game against Tampa Bay, touchdown passes. Counterpart Russell Wilson has been brilliant during Seattle’s five-game winning streak (110-for-148, 1,420 yards, 19 TDs, 0 INTs), clicking most with Doug Baldwin, who joined Jerry Rice as the only receivers in league history to make 10 TD receptions in a four-game span with a pair of scores against Cleveland. The Seahawks have already clinched their fourth consecutive postseason appearance and are saving the banged-up Marshawn Lynch, leaving Bryce Brown, Fred Jackson, Christine Michael and Derrick Coleman to platoon, with Pete Carroll intending to ride the hot hand.

N.Y. Giants at Minnesota: After their comeback against Carolina fell short, the Giants have no room for error if they’re to make the playoffs by winning the NFC East. With Odell Beckham Jr. losing his mind against Norman and the Panthers, a team that has blown numerous fourth quarter leads continues to look like an undisciplined mess. He’s suspended for this one, so barring an unlikely win of his appeal, Eli Manning will have to rely on Reuben Randle and Dwayne Harris as top targets for this crucial visit to Minneapolis. Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater comes off the best game of his career against Chicago, throwing four TD passes and running for another to inch his team closer to the playoffs. Peterson was limited by an ankle injury against the Bears but should play here. Defensive standouts Harrison Smith, Anthony Barr and Linval Joseph have each missed the last two contests but could all return for this key Sunday night clash.

Monday, Dec. 28

Cincinnati at Denver: Look, it’s a Monday night game that actually means something. The Broncos and Bengals are vying for the No. 2 seed in the AFC and the bye that goes with it, so this may also be a potential preview of a divisional playoff game next month. The Bengals are hoping to have QB Andy Dalton back from his thumb injury by then, but saw backup A.J. McCarron fill in nicely in a 24-14 win over San Francisco that gives them hope he’ll be able to solve perhaps the league’s top defense. It would certainly help his cause if TE Tyler Eifert can return from a concussion. Coming off a rough second half in Pittsburgh, the Broncos elite secondary will be looking to rebound and hoping to get starting safeties Darian Stewart (hamstring) and T.J. Ward (ankle) back. QB Peyton Manning may return from his bout with plantar fasciitis, but Brock Osweiler is likely to remain the starter unless Manning can start getting in full practice work. Monitor this situation late in the week. A Denver loss and Kansas City win would even up the AFC West entering the final week of the regular season.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-24-2015, 11:22 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Thursday, December 24

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SAN DIEGO (4 - 10) at OAKLAND (6 - 8) - 12/24/2015, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 90-63 ATS (+20.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
OAKLAND is 70-96 ATS (-35.6 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 70-96 ATS (-35.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 24-45 ATS (-25.5 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 70-96 ATS (-35.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
OAKLAND is 30-56 ATS (-31.6 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 35-73 ATS (-45.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 19-40 ATS (-25.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 29-53 ATS (-29.3 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 4-1 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 3-2 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, December 26

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WASHINGTON (7 - 7) at PHILADELPHIA (6 - 8) - 12/26/2015, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 17-29 ATS (-14.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 17-29 ATS (-14.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 3-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, December 27

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NY GIANTS (6 - 8) at MINNESOTA (9 - 5) - 12/27/2015, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games this season.
MINNESOTA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
MINNESOTA is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
MINNESOTA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
MINNESOTA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games played on turf this season.
NY GIANTS are 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in road games against NFC North division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (5 - 9) at TAMPA BAY (6 - 8) - 12/27/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 38-58 ATS (-25.8 Units) in December games since 1992.
CHICAGO is 14-31 ATS (-20.1 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (14 - 0) at ATLANTA (7 - 7) - 12/27/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 71-47 ATS (+19.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CAROLINA is 54-31 ATS (+19.9 Units) in December games since 1992.
ATLANTA is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 4-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 4-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (4 - 10) at BUFFALO (6 - 8) - 12/27/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in games played on turf this season.
DALLAS is 36-55 ATS (-24.5 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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JACKSONVILLE (5 - 9) at NEW ORLEANS (5 - 9) - 12/27/2015, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 10) at DETROIT (5 - 9) - 12/27/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 26-48 ATS (-26.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 54-80 ATS (-34.0 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
DETROIT is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CLEVELAND (3 - 11) at KANSAS CITY (9 - 5) - 12/27/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (6 - 8) at MIAMI (5 - 9) - 12/27/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (12 - 2) at NY JETS (9 - 5) - 12/27/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 221-180 ATS (+23.0 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 221-180 ATS (+23.0 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 172-130 ATS (+29.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 47-29 ATS (+15.1 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 107-78 ATS (+21.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 75-50 ATS (+20.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 56-34 ATS (+18.6 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 4-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-1 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (7 - 7) at TENNESSEE (3 - 11) - 12/27/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 4-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (10 - 4) at ARIZONA (12 - 2) - 12/27/2015, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 29-17 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 29-17 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 62-36 ATS (+22.4 Units) in December games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 86-61 ATS (+18.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 64-38 ATS (+22.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 58-33 ATS (+21.7 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ST LOUIS (6 - 8) at SEATTLE (9 - 5) - 12/27/2015, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 149-187 ATS (-56.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 149-187 ATS (-56.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 107-147 ATS (-54.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 56-81 ATS (-33.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
SEATTLE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 3-2 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-2 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (9 - 5) at BALTIMORE (4 - 10) - 12/27/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games this season.
BALTIMORE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home lined games this season.
BALTIMORE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games in games played on turf this season.
BALTIMORE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games in December games over the last 3 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 4-2 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, December 28

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CINCINNATI (11 - 3) at DENVER (10 - 4) - 12/28/2015, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 52-32 ATS (+16.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all games this season.
CINCINNATI is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
CINCINNATI is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games this season.
CINCINNATI is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road lined games this season.
CINCINNATI is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**StarDust Bum** · 12-24-2015, 11:23 AM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 15

Thursday - Dec, 24

San Diego at Oakland, 8:25 ET
San Diego: 33-17 ATS on road when total is greater than or equal to 45.5
Oakland: 70-96 ATS in home games in games played on a grass field

Saturday - Dec, 26

Washington at Philadelphia, 8:25 ET
Washington: 6-15 ATS as a road underdog
Philadelphia: 21-8 ATS after a loss by 21 or more points

Sunday - Dec, 27

NY Giants at Minnesota, 8:30 ET
New York: 2-10 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game
Minnesota: 8-1 ATS off a division game

Chicago at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
Chicago: 11-23 ATS against conference opponents
Tampa Bay: 9-2 UNDER in home games against conference opponents

Carolina at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 7-1 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
Atlanta: 5-17 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7

Dallas at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
Dallas: 1-7 ATS in games played on turf
Buffalo: 48-27 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread

Jacksonville at New Orleans, 4:05 ET
Jacksonville: 1-10 ATS in non-conference games
New Orleans: 8-3 ATS after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game

San Francisco at Detroit, 1:00 ET
San Francisco: 29-15 ATS in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45
Detroit: 8-21 ATS after gaining 7 or more yards/play in their previous game

Cleveland at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 0-6 ATS after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7
Kansas City: 8-1 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games

Indianapolis at Miami, 1:00 ET
Indianapolis: 5-1 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite
Miami: 2-8 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game

New England at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
New England: 13-3 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
NY Jets: 73-100 ATS after playing their last game on the road

Houston at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Houston: 17-8 ATS after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games
Tennessee: 0-6 ATS after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games

Green Bay at Arizona, 4:25 ET
Green Bay: 29-14 ATS in the last 2 weeks of the regular season
Arizona: 12-25 ATS at home after a game with a t/o margin of +2 or better

St Louis at Seattle, 4:25 ET
St Louis: 0-8 ATS in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42
Seattle: 15-6 ATS off a home win

Pittsburgh at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
Pittsburgh: 8-1 ATS after 2 games where 50 total points or more were scored
Baltimore: 0-6 ATS in home games in games played on turf

Monday - Dec, 28

Cincinnati at Denver, 8:30 ET
Cincinnati: 8-2 ATS against conference opponents
Denver: 35-17 OVER against AFC North division opponents

**StarDust Bum** · 12-24-2015, 11:26 AM

NFL

Week 15

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, December 24

8:25 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. OAKLAND
San Diego is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
San Diego is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games when playing at home against San Diego
Oakland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

Saturday, December 26

8:25 PM
WASHINGTON vs. PHILADELPHIA
Washington is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Washington is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Philadelphia is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Washington
Philadelphia is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games at home

Sunday, December 27

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. TENNESSEE
Houston is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games on the road
Houston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tennessee's last 9 games when playing at home against Houston
Tennessee is 3-16-2 ATS in its last 21 games at home

1:00 PM
DALLAS vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing Buffalo
Dallas is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing Dallas
Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. NY JETS
New England is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Jets last 6 games
NY Jets are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. TAMPA BAY
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Chicago is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games when playing Chicago
Tampa Bay is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Miami
Indianapolis is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. KANSAS CITY
Cleveland is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games when playing Cleveland

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. ATLANTA
Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games
Atlanta is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games
Atlanta is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games at home

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. DETROIT
San Francisco is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing San Francisco

4:05 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Jacksonville's last 10 games
Jacksonville is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games
New Orleans is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 7 games

4:25 PM
GREEN BAY vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 6 games when playing Arizona
Green Bay is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games at home
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

4:25 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of St. Louis's last 8 games on the road
St. Louis is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against St. Louis

8:30 PM
NY GIANTS vs. MINNESOTA
NY Giants are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games on the road
NY Giants are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing NY Giants
Minnesota is 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games when playing NY Giants

Monday, December 28

8:30 PM
CINCINNATI vs. DENVER
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Cincinnati's last 14 games on the road
Cincinnati is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Denver is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

**StarDust Bum** · 12-24-2015, 11:26 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 16

Thursday's game
Chargers (4-10) @ Raiders (6-8)-- Oakland (+3.5) won 37-29 at San Diego in Week 7, racing out to 30-6 halftime lead; Raiders averaged 8.8 ypa, were +2 in turnovers-- they started 6 of 11 drives in San Diego territory. It was just their second win in last eight series games. Chargers won three of last four visits here, with wins by 12-8-3 points. Bolts had emotional win LW in what was likely their last-ever home game in San Diego; they've scored exactly three points in three of last five games- they are 4-0 vs spread in last four road games. Raiders could be playing its last home game ever in Oakland; they lost last three home games by 16-14-10 points. AFC West home teams are 0-9 vs spread this season in divisional games. Over is 5-2-2 in last nine Oakland games.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-24-2015, 11:29 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 16

Chris Ivory has had the fourth most rushing attempts inside the red zone this season, scoring six touchdowns inside the 20-yard line.

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (-4.5, 47)

Chargers’ fourth-quarter defense vs. Raiders’ late collapses

The Bolts don’t have much to hang their hat on in the final two games of the schedule, but one positive building steam in recent games has been the play of the defense. San Diego has limited its last three opponents to a total of 41 points – an average of just under two touchdowns per game – with just seven of those points coming in the fourth quarter. In fact, the Chargers blanked Denver and Kansas City in the final frame and those seven tallied came on a last-minute score from Miami in garbage time last Sunday.

Oakland has done much better than expected this season, but those fortunes really could have turned around had the Raiders been able to close out games. Instead, the Silver and Black were outscored by an average of more than five points in the fourth quarter heading into Week 16, and second-year passer Derek Carr has crumbled in the crunch. Carr, who boasts a QB rating of 105.6 through the first three quarters, plummets to 61.3 in the closing 15 minutes, completing just 55.6 percent of his throws with seven of his 11 total interceptions coming in the fourth.

Daily fantasy watch: San Diego D/ST

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 47)

Redskins’ pass defense vs. Eagles’ butter-fingered WRs

The Eagles have one of the more balanced playbooks in the NFL, passing the ball just over 58 percent of the time. However, with the way the receivers have dropped the ball, it’s a wonder Chip Kelly just doesn’t stick to the ground. According to SportingCharts.com, Philadelphia averages the second most amount of dropped passes per game at 5.5 percent. On the season, the Eagles targets have bumbled away 29 would-be catches for a completion percentage just under 64 percent.

The Redskins, looking to lock up the division title with a win, have caused chaos in the secondary, especially in recent outings. Washington’s defense has allowed the last three opposing passers – Dallas, Chicago, Buffalo - to connect on less than 59 percent of their attempts and SportingCharts has the Redskins ranked among the top teams in opponents drops, at 5.9 percent. Washington limited Philadelphia to 15-for-28 passing (53.5%) in its 24-20 win over the Eagles in Week 4.

Daily fantasy watch: Washington D/ST

New England Patriots at New York Jets (+3, 45.5)

Patriots’ red-zone defense vs. Jets’ red-zone defense

The Patriots defense doesn’t allow opponents inside the red zone too often, watching opponents crack the 20-yard line only 35 times this season – tied with two other teams for second lowest in the NFL. On the season, the Pats have allowed foes to score a touchdown in the red zone 57 percent of the time but in the past three weeks, that red-zone defense has crumbled. The last three opponents – Tennessee, Houston, Philadelphia – have found pay dirt on 75 percent of their visits inside the 20-yard line. The Titans scored a TD on their lone red-zone look last Sunday and the Eagles punched it in on both their tries in Week 13. The Texans were turned away in their lone red-zone series.

The Jets have tunnel vision inside the 20. New York ranks as the second best red-zone team, in terms of touchdown percentage in the NFL, picking up six points on almost 67 percent of their red-zone tries. The Jets have plenty of options too. Wide receivers Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall rank first and fourth in red-zone targets respectively, and running back Chris Ivory is fourth in the league in red-zone rushing attempts. That trio has combined for 23 total touchdowns inside the red zone this season. New York scored TDs on two of its trips inside the 20-yard line in its 30-23 loss to New England in Week 7.

Daily fantasy watch: Eric Decker WR

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-6, 46)

Giants’ kick returns vs. Vikings’ struggling special teams

The G-Men could be missing their biggest offensive weapon for this Sunday Night Football showdown with the Vikings, if Odell Beckham Jr.’s suspension holds up. That puts even more of an emphasis on New York’s kick and punt returns to give the offense a head start. The Giants have been among the better return units in the league, averaging 26.1 yards per kickoff return and bringing punts back for an average of 10.6 yards. Dwayne Harris has been a weapon on special teams, ranked fourth in average return yards (28.7) and seventh in punt returns (10.3).

The Vikings special teams, more specifically the kicking game, has been rotten. Minnesota had a bad week kicking the football against the Bears, allowing Chicago to run the ball back 49 yards on the opening kickoff – just one tackle short of a would-be touchdown – and punter Jeff Locke totaled just over 36 net yards on a trio of punts. For the season, the Vikes have given up 27.6 yards per kickoff return – second worst in the NFL.

Daily fantasy watch: Dwayne Harris WR

**StarDust Bum** · 12-24-2015, 11:30 AM

Dunkel

Week 16

San Diego @ Oakland

Game 101-102
December 24, 2015 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Diego
124.440
Oakland
134.039
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 9 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
by 6
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(-6); Over

**StarDust Bum** · 12-24-2015, 11:32 AM

TNF - Chargers at Raiders
December 24, 2015

You’re probably going to get some presents you’ll like more than others this holiday season. Think of the NFL’s Thursday night offering as something you ideally wouldn’t have picked out and purchased yourself, but might wind up coming in handy. Whether you like it or not, there’s no way to exchange it.

The Oakland Raiders host the San Diego Chargers in a battle between eliminated AFC West teams. Off the field, the intrigue lies in the fact they may wind up as co-tenants in Los Angeles, as both franchises are expected to petition the league to move from their current locations to a new stadium in Carson that they would share in the nation’s No. 2 market.

You’ll undoubtedly hear more about this on the broadcast, probably more than you care to. In the spirit of hoping they don’t go overboard on the topic, we’ll stop referencing it after the next paragraph, because the following actually affects Thursday’s on-field product.

Coming off Sunday’s emotional 30-14 win in what might be the final game at San Diego’s Qualcomm Stadium, will the Chargers fall flat a few days later? QB Philip Rivers teared up afterward and admitted that his pre-game message to his teammates revolved around making sure to respect fans that have been there before they were even born. Certainly, one can speculate that Oakland head coach Jack Del Rio will try and tap into the same sentiment to ensure his younger team is properly fired up. Beyond the potential relocation, legendary defensive back Charles Woodson has announced this will be his last season, so expect the team to rally around that.

Without doubt, the Black Hole will likely be on another level and a fan base that hasn’t seen much success since the franchise moved back from L.A. in 1995 will want at least one more victory.

Oakland hasn’t reached the playoffs since losing the Super Bowl in 2002. The Raiders haven’t even managed a second place finish in the AFC West. If this year’s group is able to win and reach .500 at 8-8, it will match the best mark any team has managed in those 13 years. They’re favored to get win No. 7 over San Diego, as bookmakers installed them as a five-point favorite at the beginning of the week and most have Oakland laying six as kickoff approaches.

Following up on a 30-20 home loss to Green Bay in which they actually led in the second half, it’s pretty obvious the Raiders are closer to a breakthrough than they have been in over a decade. Second-year QB Derek Carr has thrown for more for touchdowns (30) and fewer interceptions (11) this season than his counterpart Rivers (26, 12), a likely Hall of Famer.

Carr’s talent is immense and obvious. He’s coming off a game where he ran for 42 yards on four carries, surveying the field and making plays with his feet in a manner that could’ve passed as a tribute to Aaron Rodgers. He made mistakes, though, throwing a pair of interceptions, including one that put the Raiders in a 14-0 hole when it was returned for a touchdown. Oakland is 1-6 in games where he’s picked off, and he’s thrown five in his last three games.

San Diego ranks 25th in the league in interceptions, but has one of the game’s savviest safeties in Eric Weddle, who was banged up for a good part of the season but has stayed off the injury report and is an asset any time he’s on the field as a sure tackler and experienced veteran. Though they lost corner Brandon Flowers to a knee injury, he was having a rough season and gave way to Steve Williams, who is probable opposite former first-round pick Jason Verrett. There’s talent in the secondary, so Carr will have to be careful as he tries to get the ball to top WR Amari Cooper, another of the reasons Oakland is hoping the team stays put. The rookie had his first two-TD game in the loss to Green Bay and has already torched the San Diego secondary once, catching five of six targets for 133 yards and a score in the Raiders’ 37-29 Week 7 win. He’s special. Fellow wideout Michael Crabtree has a chance to match his most productive numbers ever recorded with the 49ers with a strong finish, just 151 yards shy of giving Oakland two 1,000-yard receivers. Tight ends Mychal Rivera and Clive Watford are also young and talented.

Third-year running back Latavius Murray is 44 yards shy of a 1,000-yard season himself and has provided balance to the offense, helping coordinator Bill Musgrave pile up prolific numbers. Only the Chiefs and Broncos, two of the NFL’s top defenses, have been able to get a handle on this Raiders offense.

Rivers hasn’t had the luxury of balance due to a disappointing season from first-round pick Melvin Gordon, who failed to record a 100-yard game and was lost to a to a knee injury. In fairness, his lack of production could indeed be partially attributed to the massive offensive line injuries that the Chargers had to suffer through for most of the season. Four of the team’s five projected starters all missed substantial time. Tackle D.J. Fluker has returned from concussion issues, but guards Chris Watt and Johnnie Troutman have been long gone and tackle King Dunlap will miss another game with an ankle issue.

San Diego may get WR Stevie Johnson back after missing the last few games with a groin injury. He and TE Ladarius Green, Antonio Gates' tag-team partner, are listed as questionable.

Rivers was doing a nice job of keeping the offense afloat in spite of the injuries and lack of balance, throwing for over 300 yards in six of the first eight games, including a 336-yard effort in the home loss to the Raiders, which came on the heels of a 503-yard output in a duel with Rodgers in Green Bay. Keenan Allen was among the NFL’s most prolific receivers before suffering a lacerated kidney against Baltimore on Nov. 1 and going on IR. Since that game, the Chargers have scored just three points on three occasions. They have to be encouraged by the 30-spot they put up on the Dolphins last week, feeding versatile RB Danny Woodhead eight carries and six catches and watching him find the end zone four times. Oakland’s defense knows all about him since he torched them for 11 catches and 101 yards from scrimmage on Oct. 25. The Raiders are aware of how resourceful San Diego’s offense can be despite all the attrition it has faced, and so are bookmakers.

The total on this game opened at 47 and has been holding steady all week, dipping to 46.5 at some spots. VegasInsider.com NFL totals expert Chris David offers up his opinion on the number.

“Handicapping these meaningless games are often a toss-up and you can find yourself making cases for both sides. The same can go for the totals too. San Diego was in this situation last week and it blasted Miami 30-14 in what could’ve been its last game Qualcomm Stadium. I’d normally lean to a high-scoring affair with both teams taking shots and playing a loose style, but this game does mean something to Oakland, which could create a more controlled tempo,” explained David. “From a totals perspective, Oakland has been a great ‘over’ bet (8-4-2) this season and that includes a 5-1-1 mark at the Coliseum. San Diego has watched the ‘under’ cash in five of six and even though they posted 30 points versus the Dolphins last week and 31 against the Jaguars in Week 12, you can’t ignore the fact that they were hold to a combined 28 points in the four other games during this stretch.”

The ‘under’ has gone 6-4 in the last 10 encounters between the pair but two of the last three went ‘over’ and bettors should note that Carr has posted solid numbers against the Chargers (7 TDs, 1 INT) while helping his unit score 71 points in three career games.

Carr is 1-2 against the Chargers, but certainly equipped to even the score. San Diego has won six of the past eight meetings. Since Rivers first took the field against Oakland in ’06, the Chargers have won 14 of 19. Although showers and wind are a part of the afternoon forecast, the weather is supposed to be clear for kick-off.

Enjoy the holiday action and have a merry one.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-24-2015, 11:34 AM

Raiders may be saying bye to Coliseum
December 24, 2015

OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) From the costume-clad crazies in the Black Hole who turn football Sundays into Halloween, the infield dirt that serves as an obstacle early in the season to the crumbling infrastructure, the Oakland Coliseum has provided a unique setting.

A relic from the era of multipurpose stadiums, the Coliseum is the only venue remaining that hosts the NFL and baseball. That era may be coming to an end as the Raiders could be playing their final game ever in Oakland on Thursday night against San Diego.

''We're human so it's hard not to think about it,'' Raiders fullback Marcel Reece said. ''One thing I'll tell those guys when I talk to them is if it's the last game here in Oakland, make it the best.''

With prospects for a new stadium in Oakland remaining bleak, the Raiders are one of three teams along with the St. Louis Rams and Chargers expected to apply next month for the right to relocate to the Los Angeles area.

Raiders owner Mark Davis and Chargers owner Dean Spanos are seeking to partner on building a stadium in Carson, which could lead to an unusual partnership between teams that have been fierce rivals for more than a half-century.

''It could be an odd marriage,'' Reece said. ''There's mutual respect but never any love. Business is business. For us as players that's way above our pay grade. No matter what, when we see each other on the field, you'll hear a whole lot of helmets cracking and there will be a lot of fire.''

The Rams are looking to build their stadium in Inglewood and are willing to take on a partner if needed.

The three teams are expected to apply to relocate in early January with a possible vote to be held on which teams will be allowed to move during meetings in Houston on Jan. 12-13.

''I don't know what the plans are. That's not my area,'' coach Jack Del Rio said. ''I let Mr. Davis, handle that stuff. I just continue to coach the football team and work on having our guys as prepared as possible.''

The Raiders already left Oakland once, departing for Los Angeles following the 1981 season. The NFL tried to block that move only to have late owner Al Davis sue his way south.

The team spent 14 years in Los Angeles before returning to Oakland amid much fanfare for the 1995 season. But the return stay has not been nearly as successful as the first tenure when the Raiders won two Super Bowls and were one of the league's top teams.

That was part of the heyday of Oakland sports when the Athletics, Warriors and Raiders combined to win six championships in a nine-season span. The city has just two titles since the Raiders won the Super Bowl in January 1981 and is danger of losing its teams. The Warriors have plans to build a new arena in San Francisco and the A's are also seeking a new home but seem more likely to stay in Oakland after a bid to move to San Jose was blocked because the San Francisco Giants have rights to that territory.

The Raiders have been unable to add to that success since their return outside of a three-year run starting in 2000 when the Raiders made it to two AFC title games and one Super Bowl. The team has failed to post a winning record or make the playoffs in the 18 other seasons.

The move back also wasn't very successful off the field as the city of Oakland and Alameda County were left holding the bag after personal seat licenses failed to cover the cost of the $220 million renovation that added more than 10,000 seats and luxury boxes in what was called Mount Davis.

The city and county still owe about $100 million in debt on the upgrade, which has made financing a new stadium problematic.

''The deal that was initially stuck was one that didn't work well for the city, the county or the Raiders,'' former Raiders CEO Amy Trask said. ''For years we heard it didn't work out well for city and county. That's true but it didn't work for the Raiders either.''

Trask said any chance to improve the deal early on after the move was thwarted when the Joint Powers Authority than ran the Coliseum filed a lawsuit against the Raiders instead of continuing negotiations.

In the ensuing years, the stadium grew more outdated and other teams built fancier homes that brought them many more millions in revenue than the Raiders were getting from the Coliseum.

But despite those shortcomings, the players have enjoyed their unique home environment.

''The fans in that Black Hole make it special,'' offensive lineman Khalif Barnes said. ''The Black Hole goes back decades. There's a lot of tradition in that stadium. A lot of great players, Hall of Fame players and icons have been a part of that stadium. I'll miss it.''

**StarDust Bum** · 12-24-2015, 08:04 PM

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 24

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

SD at OAK 08:25 PM

OAK -5.5 DOUBLE PLAY

U 46.5 DOUBLE PLAY

**StarDust Bum** · 12-25-2015, 11:41 PM

Public Fades - Week 16
December 24, 2015

Two weeks remain in the NFL regular season as six playoff spots have been clinched. Four division titles are on the line this week as the streaking Chiefs still have a shot to win the AFC West championship. Kansas City has won eight straight games as it looks to stay on fire against a struggling Cleveland squad as a double-digit favorite. The Chiefs are one of two public home favorites we’re looking to go against this Sunday in the Week 16 edition of “Public Fades.”

Browns at Chiefs (-11, 43) – 1:00 PM EST

Kansas City started the season in dire straits at 1-5 and things looked bleak for Andy Reid’s squad. Throw in running back Jamaal Charles’ season-ending knee injury in a Week 5 loss to the Bears and the playoffs seemed out of the question. Two weeks later, the Chiefs started an eight-game winning streak to improve to 9-5, while covering seven times in this stretch.

The Browns continue to be a circus at 3-11, tied with the Titans with the worst record in the league. Cleveland has lost eight of its last nine games, while posting a 2-7 ATS mark in this stretch. Johnny Manziel has won two of five starts under center for the Browns, as Cleveland has scored 13 points or less in each of his three away starts.

So why back the Browns?

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson breaks down Kansas City’s woes as a heavy favorite, “The Chiefs have a very reasonable shot to catch Denver in the AFC West should the Broncos lose this week in a tough matchup with Cincinnati so there should be no lack of incentive for the hosts even against the lowly Browns. This spread is similar to the price the Chiefs paid at home vs. the Chargers in Week 14 in the 10-3 win with the Chiefs holding off San Diego with a late goal line stand. Prior to that game, the Chiefs had not been favored by more than 10½ points since 2003 and the Chiefs are on an 11-23-1 ATS slide as a home favorite since 2007.”

Even though the Chiefs cruised past the Ravens last week, Nelson mentions it’s not because of an offensive explosion, “While it appeared that Kansas City cruised to an easy 34-14 win last week at Baltimore, it was a bit of a misleading final as the Chiefs had two defensive touchdowns including a 90-yard interception return touchdown with less than five minutes to go in the game that likely flipped the spread result. Kansas City benefited from three Baltimore turnovers in the game as the Jimmy Clausen-led Ravens offense had 89 more yards than the Chiefs. In each of the last three games, Alex Smith has failed to top 200 yards passing as Kansas City remains one of the more conservative offensive teams and winning by two touchdowns won’t be easy even if Kansas City controls this game as expected.”

NFL expert Antony Dinero says this can be the opportunity for Manziel to break through on the road, “Manziel has never appeared in a regular-season road game that he’s won. Well, as a pro, anyway. We know he owns Tuscaloosa, Auburn and Oxford, but as a pro, he’s never won anywhere but Cleveland. Still, he did show some signs of obvious improvement last week in the Browns loss in Seattle, doing so against an excellent defense that had given up 13 points combined in the previous two games and was actually down 7-0. Kansas City hasn’t won a home game by double-digits this season, unless you count being the “home” team in London when it demolished Detroit.”

49ers at Lions (-10, 43) – 1:00 PM EST

Detroit returns home following a 35-27 victory on Monday night at New Orleans as 2 ½-point underdogs. Matthew Stafford has thrown 12 touchdowns in the last four games compared to one interception for the Lions, while tossing three touchdown passes in the victory over the Saints. The Lions have won four of the last six games following a 1-7 start to the season, as Detroit is 2-1 in the past three contests at Ford Field.

San Francisco is one game worse than Detroit entering Sunday’s action at 4-10, as the 49ers are coming off consecutive losses to the Browns and Bengals. The 49ers own a 2-5 ATS record away from Levi’s Stadium, while scoring 18 points or less in five of those losses. Jim Tomsula’s club has played well against NFC North opponents this season, winning two of three games, including a 26-20 overtime triumph at Chicago in Week 13.

So why back the 49ers?

Nelson says in spite of San Francisco’s struggles, the Niners have found a way to be competitive lately, “The numbers are a tough sell to support the 49ers with near league worst statistics on both sides of the ball. With that said, the 49ers are 2-4 with Blaine Gabbert at quarterback and the losses have not been blowouts losing by 16, 6, 14, and 10 despite three of the defeats coming against three of the top teams in the NFL. Last week, San Francisco had four turnovers but out-gained Cincinnati by 76 yards despite losing by 10 and the team looks to be playing hard in what has been a difficult transition season.”

NFL handicapper Vince Akins provides a system to support San Francisco, “While Detroit has been a much improved team of late, you can see from some of their late game collapses still they are certainly not an elite team, just in case their 5-9 overall record left any doubt about that. Intuitively, it makes sense that you would not want to back teams with a poor to mediocre overall body of work when they are laying big points and the historic stats back that up. Detroit is not even sniffing .500 here, having won just 35.7% of their games this season. Teams that have won less than 40% of their games on the season, but have at least one win, are just 36.4% against the spread as favorites of more than a touchdown.”

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The Bum's National Football League Week # 16 Rated Plays - Trends - News Etc. !!

The Bum's National Football League Week # 16 Rated Plays - Trends - News Etc. !!

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