The Bum's National Football League Week # 15 Rated Plays - Trends - News Etc. !!

[StarDust Bum]

SuperContest Picks - Week 15
December 19, 2015

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry, and it’s all a 100% payback. Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,727 entries, which is an all-time record. The winner of this year's top prize will be given a check for $906,675, plus the top 50 finishers will collect cash prizes too.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Through 14 weeks of the season, the Top 5 Consensus Picks have gone 38-30-2 (55%) in the SuperContest.


Week 15

1) N.Y. Jets (556)

2) N.Y. Giants (555)

3) Green Bay (551)

4) Arizona (442)

5) Denver (411)



SUPERCONTEST WEEK 15 MATCHUPS & ODDS

Away Team Selections Home Team Selections

Tampa Bay (+2.5) 76 St. Louis (-2.5) 70

N.Y. Jets (-3.5) 556 Dallas (+3.5) 195

Chicago (+5.5) 383 Minnesota (-5.5) 225

Atlanta (+3) 236 Jacksonville (-3) 300

Houston (+2) 252 Indianapolis (-2) 95

Kansas City (-7.5) 210 Baltimore (+7.5) 246

Buffalo (-1) 269 Washington (+1) 287

Tennessee (+14) 104 New England (-14) 240

Arizona (-3.5) 442 Philadelphia (+3.5) 254

Carolina (-4.5) 255 N.Y. Giants (+4.5) 555

Cleveland (+14.5) 103 Seattle (-14.5) 302

Green Bay (-3) 551 Oakland (+3) 160

Miami (+2) 106 San Diego (-2) 213

Denver (+6.5) 411 Pittsburgh (-6.5) 283

Cincinnati (-4.5) 358 San Francisco (+4.5) 116

Detroit (+3) 159 New Orleans (-3) 298

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 15
December 19, 2015


NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Seahawks are 13-0 ATS (11.04 ppg) since Oct 18, 2012 after a win with at least 250 passing yards.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Dolphins are 0-10 ATS (-10.05 ppg) since Nov 15, 2012 when they are on the road between two home games.

TOP NFL PLAYER ATS TREND:

-- The Chargers are 0-7 ATS (-11.86 ppg) since Oct 19, 2014 after a road game where Philip Rivers threw for at least 250 yards.

NFL CHOICE TRENDS:

-- The 49ers are 0-10 OU (-15.25 ppg) since Dec 04, 2005 as a home dog off a game as a road dog where they gained no more than 18 first downs.

-- The Titans are 11-0 OU (13.50 ppg) since Oct 01, 2006 as a dog after a road loss where they had no more than 15 first downs.

TOP NFL PLAYER OU TREND:

-- The Packers are 0-7 OU (-11.14 ppg) since Oct 04, 2015 after a game where Aaron Rodgers threw for at least two touchdowns.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Raiders are 12-0-1 OU (12.50 ppg) since Oct 03, 2010 as a dog after a road game where they covered.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Cardinals are 0-13-1 OU (-8.71 ppg) since Sep 21, 2008 on the road the week after a win in which passing for three times as many yards as they rushed for.

SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:

-- Since 2010, teams are 27-50-4 ATS with less than eight days rest coming off a game against Seattle. Active against Baltimore.

NFL BIBLE ATS ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Chargers are 9-0 ATS the week following a game in which they had fewer than 50 yards rushing.

NFL BIBLE O/U ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Titans are 10-0 OU as a FG-plus dog when facing a team that just allowed 275 yards or fewer of offense.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 15
December 19, 2015

Even though we had six teams put up 30-plus points last weekend, the ‘under’ produced a 12-4 (75%) mark, which was the most lopsided total results this season. After 14 weeks, the ‘under’ now holds a 104-100-4 record.

Head-to-Head

We only have two divisional games on tap this Sunday but that will change over the final two weeks.

Chicago at Minnesota: These teams met at Soldier Field in Week 8 and the Vikings defeated the Bears 23-20 with a game-winning field goal as time expired. The game went ‘under’ (44) and that’s been the trend in this series. Including that result, the ‘under’ has cashed in four straight and seven of the last 10 meetings. Minnesota has been a great ‘under’ bet (10-2-1) all season and Chicago has slightly leaned to the low side (7-6) but its defense (50 points) hasn’t looked sharp the last two weeks.

Houston at Indianapolis: Low total (41) for this game and I’m surprised it’s not lower considering it looks like a preseason game with a pair of backup quarterbacks going head-to-head. The ‘under’ is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings and that includes a 5-0 run in games at Lucas Oil Stadium. I doubt the winner will score more than 20 points and after watching the Colts allow 96 points the last two weeks on the road, you can’t get much worse and I expect the unit to play better at home.

Holiday Road

The road system returns for the fourth and final time this season as Atlanta pays a visit to Jacksonville.

What’s the angle?

Play the ‘over’ in any game when the visitor is playing their third consecutive road game

The Falcons played lost 23-19 to the Buccaneers in Week 13 and were embarrassed 38-0 at Carolina last Sunday.

The previous situations from this season are listed below:

Week 5: Jacksonville 31 at Tampa Bay 38 (Over 41 ½)

Week 10: Miami 20 at Philadelphia 19 (Under 49 ½)

Week 12: Buffalo 22 at Kansas City 30 (Over 41)

The system has produced a 2-1 record this season and if you followed the Dolphins-Eagles game, you’re well aware that the game was 16-3 after the first quarter and plenty of points were left off the board. Still, a loss is a loss and no system is ever perfect.

Including those results, this system has produced a 39-18-1 (68%) record the past 11 seasons.

Last Chance to Brag

Through 14 weeks of the regular season, bettors have watched the ‘under’ go 36-18-2 (65%) in non-conference games and that includes a 12-4 (75%) run the last four weeks. We only have eight games left and six take place this weekend, five on Sunday.

N.Y. Jets at Dallas: This matchup kicks on Saturday night and I provided my total thoughts in our weekly preview piece.

Atlanta at Jacksonville: Based on the above system, I’m leaning ‘over’ and I also like the high side because the Jaguars have finally found out how to score recently. Jacksonville is the best ‘over’ team in the league (9-4) but you can’t ignore the fact that Atlanta has produced the top ‘under’ record (11-2) this season.

Buffalo at Washington: This total looks a little high to me and I’m actually leaning to Buffalo only because the Redskins haven’t won back-to-back games all season. Knowing that Washington’s defense (17.7 PPG) has been much better at home, maybe the oddsmakers are telling us something with the Bills listed as road favorites. The Redskins are 0-3 versus the AFC East this season, allowing 26 PPG.

Green Bay at Oakland: The Packers have seen the ‘under’ go 9-4 this season yet the total for this week’s game is 48. Despite looking lackluster at times, Green Bay has still scored 28 and 27 the last two weeks and now it’s facing a Raiders defense that is very suspect (271 YPG) against the pass. The Packers secondary is banged up and Oakland’s offense has improved by eight PPG (23-15) this season. Oakland has watched the ‘over’ go 4-1-1 at home but it has struggled offensively (15.6 PPG) in its first three games against the NFC North this season (0-3 record).

Cleveland at Seattle: The Seahawks are on a 4-0-1 ‘over’ run and you can expect plenty of bettors pounding the Seattle-Over combo late Sunday afternoon. It seems too easy but you can’t ignore what the ‘Hawks have done over the last five weeks, averaging 34.6 PPG. The Browns started the season 6-0 to the ‘over’ but have watched the ‘under’ go 5-2 in the last seven. Johnny Manziel is a tough player to handicap and while Seattle might score, you wonder if the Browns can do their part. Keep an eye on the weather as rain and wind could play factors.

Cincinnati at San Francisco: This is the lowest total (40 ½) on the board and with Andy Dalton out for the Bengals, I expect Marvin Lewis to tighten up the play-calling and try to shorten the game and win with his defense. San Francisco is 5-1 to the ‘under’ at home and its defense (15.8 PPG) has played some great football. Barring turnovers, I don’t see either club getting 20 points on the board in this game.

Under the Lights

Including this past Thursday’s unexpected shootout between the Buccaneers and Rams, the ‘under’ has gone 26-17 (60%) in primetime games. Based on the opening numbers, it appears the oddsmakers are expecting another pair of back-and-forth games this weekend.

Arizona at Philadelphia: The Cardinals have seen the ‘under’ cash in three straight and the Carson Palmer-led offense hasn’t looked crisp lately. Arizona has shined under the lights this season, going 4-0 while averaging 30.5 PPG. Chip Kelly’s team has leaned to the ‘under’ (8-5) this season but the ‘over’ has cashed three of the last four. If you delve into Philadelphia’s total numbers, you could argue that only two of them were clear-cut winners. The other 11 games could’ve easily been flip-flopped and if you’re playing this game, get ready for three-plus hours of action.

Detroit at New Orleans: It’s very hard to play the ‘under’ when New Orleans lines up only because it’s a mess defensively (414 YPG, 30.5 PPG). Plus, they have Drew Brees at QB and while he continues to regress, he’s still capable of moving the chains. The Lions looked horrible last week at the Rams and that letdown was expected after the Hail Mary loss to the Packers. Prior to those setbacks, Detroit won three in a row behind good defense and running the football. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Lions go back to that plan, especially against the worst run defense (136 YPG) in the league.

Fearless Predictions

For the second consecutive week we produced a split ($20) and while the team total loser with the Eagles was tough to stomach, the ‘under’ in the Panthers-Falcons was fortunate to cash. The deficit is $600 with three weeks left in the regular season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Atlanta-Jacksonville 49

Best Under: Denver-Pittsburgh 45

Best Team Total: Under Cincinnati 23 ½

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 40 Atlanta-Jacksonville
Over 42 Arizona-Philadelphia
Under 50 Cincinnati-San Francisco

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 20

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

CHI at MIN 01:00 PM

MIN -4.0 TRIPLE PLAY

O 43.5 *****


ATL at JAC 01:00 PM

ATL +2.5

O 48.0 DOUBLE PLAY


HOU at IND 01:00 PM

HOU +1.5 DOUBLE PLAY

O 42.0 DOUBLE PLAY


TEN at NE 01:00 PM

TEN +14.5 TRIPLE PLAY


CAR at NYG 01:00 PM

U 46.5 TRIPLE PLAY


CLE at SEA 04:05 PM

CLE +14.5


GB at OAK 04:05 PM

GB -4.0 BLOW OUT


CIN at SF 04:25 PM

CIN -6.5 BLOW OUT


MIA at SD 04:25 PM

SD -2.5 DOUBLE PLAY

O 46.5 TRIPLE PLAY


ARI at PHI 08:30 PM

PHI +3.5 TRIPLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

Monday's six-pack

Westgate Super Contest (1,727 entrants-- prize pool is $2.5M)

Most popular picks 2-7 in Week 15 season record: 46-44-2

Jets (-3.5) were most popular pick; they played last night- L.

7) Bengals -4.5 (358)-- Lot of faith in first time starter, QB McCarron- W

6) Bears +5.5 (383)-- Chicago has played lot of close games this year- L

5) Broncos +6.5 (411)-- Will Osweiler lose starting job if Denver loses? - L

4) Cardinals -3.5 (442)-- Lot of trust in dome team; was 37 degrees at kickoff- W.

3) Giants +4.5 (505)-- It is comical how underrated the Panthers are.- L.

2) Packers -3 (551)-- Aaron Rodgers returns to Bay Area; he played at Cal.- W

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Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday........

13) Steelers 34, Broncos 27-- Denver led 27-13 at half, never scored again; in second half, they ran nine drives: 35 plays, 72 yards, zero points. Bad news for Jets, Chiefs as teams scramble for AFC Wild Card position.

12) Panthers 38, Giants 35-- In 2001, Vince McMahon owned XFL, a minor league football operation that was part football, part-WWE. This game resembled that, with Norman/Beckham swatting each other throughout the first quarter as officials refused to police the action and Troy Aikman bitched about it in the FOX TV booth.

Carolina led this game 35-7, blew the lead, won on a last-second FG, but not before both sides were an embarrassment to their employers, with Norman/Beckham swatting each other during/after most every play. Beckham had three personal foul penalties, scored the tying TD, both of which I'm guessing will lead to more commercials.

11) Chiefs 34, Ravens 14-- "More games are lost than won."- George Allen. Chiefs had two defensive TDs, one of their two TD drives was 24 yards, as Jimmy Clausen falls to 0-3 this season with losses by 26-0/35-6/34-14 scores. Chiefs haven't lost since the Royals won the World Series- they still have work to do to make the playoffs.

10) Texans 16, Colts 10-- Houston takes over first place in AFC South behind 5th-string QB Weeden, who was cut by Dallas earlier this season. Texans are 7-7 after 1-4 start, so they'll have positive momentum if they make the playoffs, and a home game in the first round. Colts and Giants are both going to be looking for new coaches soon.

9) Falcons 23, Jaguars 17-- Atlanta ends six-game skid by going 7-14 on 3rd down; Jags were 0-8. Game swung in last 0:10 of first half; down 14-3, Jax had ball on 1-yard line but pass was picked and run back 86 yards, where Falcons kicked FG on last play of half to go up 17-3. 6 or 10-point swing was the difference.

8) Vikings 38, Bears 17-- Minnesota-Green Bay could be playing for first round bye in Week 17; Minnesota was +2 in turnovers here. This week, teams that were +2 or better in turnovers are 6-0 so far. When Vikings average 10.5 ypa, they will win, since that is one of weaker parts of their game.

7) Patriots 33, Titans 16-- Now there are rumors that Bill Polian is going to come to Nashville to run the Titans and bring in Peyton Manning to work with him in the front office. Chicago OC Adam Gase is rumored as a probably head coaching candidate.

6) Redskins 35, Bills 25-- Washington has leg up on winning NFC East; they threw for 10.6 yards/attempt in this game, as rumors persist that Rex Ryan and front office aren't getting along. Buffalo just played five road games in six weeks, which is unkind scheduling; they get Kellen Moore's Dallas Cowboys in Orchard Park next week.

5) Packers 30, Raiders 20-- Green Bay scored two TDs in 0:15 to take an early 14-0 lead on a rainy, dismal day in Oakland. Raiders are 2-5 at home and could be playing their last game ever in the Coliseum against the Chargers next week.

4) Seahawks 30, Browns 13-- Russell Wilson is so valuable because of his mobility; Seattle was 9-12 on third down, ran ball for 182 yards and is a team no one wants to face in mid or late January. As for the Browns, they'll be a curious team to follow in winter/spring months. Not sure they know what they're doing.

3) Chargers 30, Dolphins 14-- Female blackjack dealer in casino here had a great Dan Fouts throwback jersey on today, the light blue one with big gold lightning bolts on each shoulder. Sad day for San Diego, probably their last game ever in Qualcomm, and that doesn't seem fair. San Diego supported the team, deserves to keep it.

2) Bengals 24, 49ers 14-- AJ McCarron is first Alabama QB since 1987 to start/win an NFL game (Rutledge); they scored three TDs in 4:23 near end of first half, on three scoring drives totalling 67 yards, with two 49er turnovers involved. 49ers are 0 for 6 on replay challenges this year, while former coach Harbaugh has his Wolverines in a New Year's Day bowl game. Maybe they should've kept him.

1) Cardinals 40, Eagles 17-- If I was an Eagles fan, I'd seriously question what the hell Chip Kelly is doing; they've gotten worse in Years 2-3 of his regime, but they could create chaos in NFC East by beating Washington Saturday night. Best part of the big Foles-Bradford trade for me is this: Rams get a mid-round draft pick in April. .

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Monday, December 21

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Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Lions at Saints
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Drew Brees threw a pair of scoring passes last week, on the way to halting a four-game losing streak with a 24-17 victory at Tampa Bay.

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-2.5, 51)

A pair of teams that harbored playoff aspirations but are now reduced to playing out the string will square off when the New Orleans Saints host the Detroit Lions on Monday night. The Lions expected to be in the hunt for the NFC North title while the Saints hoped to contend for the NFC South, but both teams are mired in the basement of their respective divisions.

New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees threw a pair of scoring passes last week to move past Dan Marino (420) for fourth place on the all-time list, but he said such milestones are not his main focus. “For me, at this stage of my career, it is about winning," Brees said. "It is about finding a way to win another championship. I want to go win another championship." While the Saints halted a four-game losing streak with a 24-17 victory at Tampa Bay last week, Detroit dropped its second in a row following a three-game winning streak with a 21-14 setback at St. Louis. The Lions are 1-5 on the road, including three defeats during their season-opening five-game losing streak.

TV: 8:30 ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Saints opened as 3-point home favorites and have been bet down a half-point to sit at -2.5. The total has been bet up one-point, going from 50 to 51.

INJURY REPORT:

Lions - WR L. Moore (probable Monday, ankle), WR C. Johnson (probable Monday, ankle), DT G. Wright (questionable Monday, ankle), TE B. Pettigrew (I-R, knee).

Saints - NT J. Jenkins (questionable Monday, concussion), G J. Evans (questionable Monday, ankle), CB D. Swann (I-R, concussion), RB M. Ingram (I-R, shoulder).

POWER RANKINGS: Lions (+4) - Saints (+2.5) + home field (-3) = Saints -4.5

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Saints utilized a ball control offense in their win at Tampa. Only two Drew Brees passes went for more than 20 yards and the Saints had more than 37 minutes of possession. While for the Lions, in the midst of a dismal overall season, DE Ziggy Ansah has been a bright spot with 13.5 sacks, just ½ a sack off the NFL lead."

ABOUT THE LIONS (4-9, 4-9 ATS, 7-6 O/U): Matthew Stafford has played well over the past five weeks with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions and has put up some huge numbers against the Saints, averaging 362.3 yards passing in the past three meetings (playoffs included). Golden Tate had nine catches and a pair of touchdowns a week ago, but star wideout Calvin Johnson was held to one reception after hauling in four touchdown passes over the previous two weeks. Detroit's running game ranks last in the NFL at 79.3 yards per game, while defensive end Ezekiel Ansah is among the bright spots on the other side of the ball.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (5-8, 6-6-1 ATS, 7-5-1 O/U): New Orleans ranks last in the league in points allowed (30.5) and is 31st in total yards surrendered (414.8), although it permitted a season-low 291 yards in last week's victory. Brees halted a six-game interception streak against the Buccaneers and received some surprising support from fourth-string running back Tim Hightower, who had sat out the previous three seasons but had 85 yards on 28 carries in his first extensive action since 2011. Rookie Willie Snead returned to the lineup after a one-game absence and had seven receptions for 122 yards.

TRENDS:

* Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last five Monday games.
* Saints are 0-6 ATS in their last six games versus a team with a losing record.
* Under is 8-1 in Lions last nine Monday games.
* Over is 3-0-1 in Saints last four home games.

CONSENSUS: A heavy majority of bettors are backing the Saints in this matchup, with 70 percent of wagers on New Orleans. Bettors also think this will be a high scoring affair with 73 percent of wagers on the over.

[StarDust Bum]

Lions (4-9) @ Saints (5-8)-- New Orleans snapped 4-game skid LW; they are 3-3 at home TY, 1-2-1 as home favorites, with wins by 6-10-3 at home- they're 3-8-1 in last 12 games as home faves. Detroit lost two in row; they're 0-9 vs spread this season when allowing more than 16 points. Lions lost five of six road games, with only win at Green Bay, where they hadn't won since '91- they're 2-3 as road underdogs. Saints won four of last five series games, with average total, 57.8; Detroit lost five of last six visits here, with all five losses by 11+ points. NFC North non-divisional underdogs are 10-7 vs spread, 8-3 on road; NFC South favorites are 12-11, 7-6 at home. Since 2012, Detroit is 6-12 vs spread when getting points on the road.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL MONEYLINE

NFL > (331) DETROIT@ (332) NEW ORLEANS | 2015-12-21 20:30:00 - 2015-12-21 20:30:00
Play AGAINST NEW ORLEANS using money line in Home games in December games
The record is 20 Wins and 33 Losses for the since 1992 (-43.95 units)

NFL > (331) DETROIT@ (332) NEW ORLEANS | 2015-12-21 20:30:00 - 2015-12-21 20:30:00
Play AGAINST NEW ORLEANS using money line in Home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season
The record is 17 Wins and 19 Losses for the since 1992 (-37.2 units)

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NFL TOTALS

NFL > (331) DETROIT@ (332) NEW ORLEANS | 2015-12-21 20:30:00 - 2015-12-21 20:30:00
Play UNDER DETROIT on the totalin Road games in games played on turf
The record is 0 Overs and 10 Unders for the last three seasons (+10 units)

NFL > (331) DETROIT@ (332) NEW ORLEANS | 2015-12-21 20:30:00 - 2015-12-21 20:30:00
Play UNDER DETROIT on the totalin Road games against conference opponents
The record is 2 Overs and 15 Unders for the last three seasons (+12.8 units)

NFL > (331) DETROIT@ (332) NEW ORLEANS | 2015-12-21 20:30:00 - 2015-12-21 20:30:00
Play UNDER DETROIT on the totalin All games when playing on Monday night
The record is 1 Overs and 12 Unders for the since 1992 (+10.9 units)

NFL > (331) DETROIT@ (332) NEW ORLEANS | 2015-12-21 20:30:00 - 2015-12-21 20:30:00
Play UNDER DETROIT on the totalin All games in all games where the first half total is 25 or higher
The record is 0 Overs and 8 Unders for the last three seasons (+8 units)

[StarDust Bum]

ONLINE
12/21/2015
10:20 AM

[Ticket #: 238973305] PARLAY (4 TEAMS)

12/21/2015 @ 05:30 PM NFL [331] TOTAL o51.5 1.91

(DETROIT vrs NEW ORLEANS)

12/21/2015 @ 05:30 PM NFL [332] NEW ORLEANS -2.5 1.91

12/21/2015 @ 11:30 AM CFB [212] SOUTH FLORIDA +3 1.91

12/21/2015 @ 11:30 AM CFB [212] TOTAL u68 1.91

(WESTERN KENTUCKY vrs SOUTH FLORIDA)

50.00 614.17

[StarDust Bum]

12/21/2015 @ 05:30 PM NFL [331] TOTAL o51.5 1.91 TRIPLE PLAY

(DETROIT vrs NEW ORLEANS)

12/21/2015 @ 05:30 PM NFL [332] NEW ORLEANS -2.5 1.91 TRIPLE PLAY