The Bum's National Football League Week # 15 Rated Plays - Trends - News Etc. !!

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 15

THURSDAY, DEC. 17

TAMPA BAY at ST. LOUIS (NFL NETWORK, 8:25 p.m. ET)
Bucs 9-4 vs. spread last 13 as visitor, while Rams 1-4-1 last six vs. line this season. Rams also “under” 8-1 last nine in 2015.
Tech Edge: Bucs and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


SATURDAY, DEC. 19

N.Y. JETS at DALLAS (NFL NETWORK, 8:25 p.m. ET)
Cowboys 3-8 vs. line last 11 this season, also 1-5 vs. spread in 2015 at Arlington. Jets have covered last three TY and 6-2 vs. spread last 8 as visitor.
Tech Edge: Jets, based on team trends.


SUNDAY, DEC. 20

CHICAGO at MINNESOTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Vikes 10-3 vs. line this season, now 18-5 last 23 vs. number since mid 2014. Bears, however, are 4-0-1 vs. spread last five away. Minny also “under” 14-8-2 since mid 2014.
Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Vikings, based on “totals” and team trends.


ATLANTA at JACKSONVILLE (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Falcons no covers last nine this season! Jags 5-2 last seven vs. spread, also “over” last 3 and 10 of last 14 since late 2014.
Tech Edge: Jags and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


HOUSTON at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Colts 6-0 SU, 5-0-1 vs. line last six meetings. Texans “over” 4-1-1 away this season.
Tech Edge: Slight to Colts and “over,” based on series and “totals” trends.


KANSAS CITY at BALTIMORE (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Ravens 0–5-1 vs. spread as host this season, 0-8-1 last nine vs. number at M&T Bank Stadium. Ravens also “under” 4-1 last five this season. Chiefs 7-0 SU, 6-1 vs. line last seven in 2015.
Tech Edge: Chiefs and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


BUFFALO at WASHINGTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Skins 5-2 SU, 4-3 vs. line at FedEx Field this season. Also “under” 5-2 as host this season. Bills 1-4-1 vs. line last six away from Orchard Park.
Tech Edge: Slight to Redskins and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


TENNESSEE at NEW ENGLAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Patriots 8-4-2 last 14 vs. spread at Gillette, 2-0 as DD chalk this season though just 3-8 in that role since 2012. Belichick has won last three vs. Titans since 2006 by 17, 59, and 21 points. Titans just 4-12-1 last 17 vs. number on road (2-4 this season).
Tech Edge: Patriots and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


CAROLINA at N.Y. GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Panthers 13-0 SU, 10-3 vs. line TY, now 17-0 SU and 12-4-1 vs. spread last 17 reg.-season games. G-Men just 2-5 last seven as home dog (1-1 TY).
Tech Edge: Panthers, based on team trends.


CLEVELAND at SEATTLE (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Seattle 20-4-1 vs. line in last seven games of regular season since 2012. Browns 1-6 vs. line last seven this season.
Tech Edge: Seahawks, based on team trends.


GREEN BAY at OAKLAND (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Pack only 7-7 vs. line last 14 away in reg.-season play. Pack also “under” 13-6 last 19 reg.-season games. Raiders, however, “over” 9-4 this season, but just 2-4 vs. spread at Coliseum in 2015.
Tech Edge: Slight to packers, based on team trends.


MIAMI at SAN DIEGO (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Chargers 7-17 last 24 vs. line since early 2014, no covers last six and 1-11 vs. line last 12 at Qualcomm. Dolphins 15 vs. line last six this season.
Tech Edge: Slight to Dolphins, based on Charger negatives.


DENVER at PITTSBURGH (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Denver 6-3-1 vs. number last ten away and 3-0 as dog this season. Steel “over” last three TY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Broncos, based on recent Denver underdog mark.


CINCINNATI at SAN FRANCISCO (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Cincy 10-2-1 vs. line this season, but 0-1 SU and vs. line in games when Andy Dalton did not finish. 49ers 4-2 vs. line at Levi’s this season, all as dog. SF also “under” 6-1 last seven at home.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on 49er home “totals” trends.


ARIZONA at PHILADELPHIA (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Cards “under” last three after “over” 8-2 first ten this season. Big Red 4-2 vs. line away TY. Birds had been “over” three straight prior to Bills game.
Tech Edge: Slight to Cards, based on team trends.


MONDAY, DEC. 21

DETROIT at NEW ORLEANS (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Saints on their third 2-game cover streak this season, but have yet to cover three in a row. Saints also “over” 8-4-1 last 13 at Superdome. Lions 2-4 vs. spread away this season, 2-9 vs. number last 11 away from Ford Field.
Tech Edge: Saints and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.
Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 15


Tampa Bay @ St. Louis

Game 301-302
December 17, 2015 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
129.541
St. Louis
126.512
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 3
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
St. Louis
by 3
41
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+3); Under


NY Jets @ Dallas

Game 303-304
December 19, 2015 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
131.247
Dallas
130.182
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Jets
by 1
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Jets
by 3 1/2
42
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+3 1/2); Under


Houston @ Indianapolis

Game 309-310
December 20, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
124.464
Indianapolis
128.545
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 4
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
N/A

Kansas City @ Baltimore

Game 311-312
December 20, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
141.266
Baltimore
126.743
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 14 1/2
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 7
42
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-7); Under

Buffalo @ Washington

Game 313-314
December 20, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
133.637
Washington
129.092
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 4 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 1
44
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(-1); Over

Tennessee @ New England

Game 315-316
December 20, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
122.009
New England
140.492
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 18
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 14
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-14); Over

Arizona @ Philadelphia

Game 317-318
December 20, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
135.402
Philadelphia
133.996
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 1 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 4
50
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+4); Over

Carolina @ NY Giants

Game 319-320
December 20, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
143.436
NY Giants
133.908
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 9 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 5
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-5); Over

Cleveland @ Seattle

Game 321-322
December 20, 2015 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
123.421
Seattle
146.630
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 23
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 14
43
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-14); Under

Green Bay @ Oakland

Game 323-324
December 20, 2015 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
137.262
Oakland
130.878
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 6 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 3
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-3); Under

Miami @ San Diego

Game 325-326
December 20, 2015 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
124.319
San Diego
130.265
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 6
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego
by 1 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(-1 1/2); Over

Chicago @ Minnesota

Game 305-306
December 20, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
126.034
Minnesota
133.552
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 7 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 5
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-5); Over

Denver @ Pittsburgh

Game 327-328
December 20, 2015 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
133.957
Pittsburgh
136.954
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 3
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 6 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+6 1/2); Over

Atlanta @ Jacksonville

Game 307-308
December 20, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
131.179
Jacksonville
130.201
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 1
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Jacksonville
by 3
48
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+3); Over

Cincinnati @ San Francisco

Game 329-330
December 20, 2015 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
130.833
San Francisco
128.488
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 2 1/2
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 5
41
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+5); Under


Detroit @ New Orleans

Game 331-332
December 21, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
131.414
New Orleans
128.422
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 3
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 3
51
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+3); Under

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 15

Buccaneers (6-7) @ Rams (5-8)-- Tampa Bay was all but KO'd by home loss to Saints last week; Bucs are 4-2 vs spread on road- this is their fifth dome game this year (2-2, with all four staying under). Rams snapped 5-game skid LW; they're 4-3 at home this year- there is an undercurrent that this could easily be Rams' last game in St Louis, should team move out to LA. St Louis won last three series games; two of three were in Tampa. Bucs lost three of four visits here, losing 23-13 in last visit here, in '13. NFC West non-divisional home teams are 9-8 vs spread; NFC South road clubs are 11-7. Under is 4-1 in Bucs' last five games, 8-1 in last nine St Louis games. Tampa Bay is 1-5 if it scores less than 23 points, a figure Rams held five of last eight opponents under.

Jets (8-5) @ Cowboys (4-9)-- Jets won last three games, scoring 30.3 ppg; they're in 3-way battle for two Wild Card slots. Dallas is 1-8 in games started by backups; in their last three games they were outscored 40-6 in first half, with no TDs. Cowboys are 1-5 at home, with only win by point over Giants in Week 1. Jets are +15 in turnovers in their eight wins, -13 in five losses; Cowboys has eight takeaways all season (-15). Gang Green lost its last three true road games by 7-14-7 points- their only true road victory was 20-7 at Indy in Week 2. Dallas is 7-3 in series, with all seven wins by 10+ points; Jets lost two of three visits here, with last visit in '07. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 8-13 vs spread, 4-5 at home; AFC East road favorites are 4-6. Under is 4-1 in last five games for both teams.

Bears (5-8) @ Vikings (8-5)-- Minnesota scored 10 points in last 1:49 to nip Bears 23-20 in Chicago in Week 8 (-1), first road series win in last seven meetings. Bears lost last three in Minnesota by 7-3-4 points. Four of last five series games were decided by 4 or less points. Nine of Bears' last ten games were decided by 6 or less points; Chicago won last three road games, is 5-0 vs spread on road with Cutler at QB (Clausen lost 26-0 at Seattle). Vikings are 1-3 in last four games- the lost last two home tilts by combined 68-20. Home teams are 1-8 vs spread in NFC North divisional games this year. Minnesota is 10-3 vs spread this year, 4-1 as home favorite; they've had three extra days since Thursday loss to Arizona. Under is 4-1-1 in last six Minnesota games.

Falcons (6-7) @ Jaguars (5-8)-- Free-falling Atlanta lost seven of eight games since starting 5-0; Jaguars are 4-3 in last seven games after 1-5 start- they're only game out of first place in hideous AFC South. Jags outscored Indy 42-3 in second half Sunday;the average total in their last three games is 68. Jax is 5-1-1 vs spread in last seven games; they're 3-3 at home, 1-2 as home favorites. Falcons are 2-1 as underdogs; they're 0-9 vs spread last nine weeks. AFC South non-divisional home favorites are 3-5 vs spread; NFC South road underdogs are 5-5. Underdogs are 5-1 vs spread week after playing Carolina; favorites are 0-4-2 week after playing J'ville. Last seven Atlanta games stayed under total; over is 9-3 in last dozen Jaguar games. If you value positive/negative momentum, Jaguars are the side for you.

Texans (6-7) @ Colts (6-7)-- Indy (+5) won 27-20 at Houston in Week 5, thanks to plus-2 turnover ratio and Texans scoring one TD on three red zone drives. Colts won last six series games; Texans are 0-13 in Indy, losing last three visits here by 12-22-7 points. QB issues on both sides; could be TJ Yates vs Charlie Whitehurst in game with division lead on line. Colts lost 45-10/51-16 last two games; they were outscored 42-3 in second half Sunday by Jags. Indy is 3-3 at home, winning by 3-13-3 points (1-3 as home favorite). Houston lost 30-21/27-6 last two games; they're 2-4 as road underdogs, with all four losses by 7+ points. Teams are 3-6 week after playing Jaguars. Six of last nine Indy games went over total; five of last six Houston games stayed under.

Chiefs (8-5) @ Ravens (4-9)-- Streaking KC is first team since 1970 to win seven in a row after losing five in row; Chiefs won last three road games, all by 14+- they're 5-3 vs spread as favorite. Teams are 7-2-1 vs spread week after playing San Diego. 11 of 13 Raven games were decided by 6 or less points; 2-4 at home, with three losses by 4 or less- they're 3-2 as underdogs, 0-1 at home. Baltimore won three of last four games in series where visitor won six of last seven meetings. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 7-10 vs spread, 2-4 on road; AFC North underdogs are 8-7-1, 2-2 at home. Under is 3-1-1 in last five Raven games; over is 4-2-1 in KC road games. If Clausen is starting again, keep in mind he's started two games this year, both vs Seattle, losing 26-0/35-6.

Bills (6-7) @ Redskins (6-7)-- Buffalo is on road for fifth time in last six weeks; they've lost three in row on road, by 7-8-3 points. Bills won last six games with Redskins, last of which was a 23-0 win in Toronto. Last home game for Washington team that is 5-2 at home, losing last one to Dallas; Skins are tied for first in NFC Least, finish with Iggles/Dallas. Buffalo's defense allowed five TDs, two FGs on foes' first drive of second half; only Colts have given up more points. Redskins allowed 71.3 rushing ypg last three weeks; Buffalo has run ball for 156 ypg last three weeks but has struggled on red zone. NFC East non-divisional home teams are 6-10 vs spread, AFC East road teams 7-7. Under is 5-2 in Redskin home games, 4-1 in last five Buffalo road games.

Titans (3-10) @ Patriots (11-2)-- New England is #1 seed in AFC right now; they close at Jets/Miami, get home field thru playoffs if they win out. Patriots won last five games with Tennessee, last three all by 17+ points. This is 11th time in 14 games Pats are favored by 7+ points (4-3-3 as favorite of 7+)- they're 3-1-3 as home favorites. Tennessee was in tank at Swamp Sunday, trailing 27-0 at half; Titans are 3-3 as road dogs; three of four losses on road were by 14+ points. Tennessee scored 34+ in each of its three wins; they're 1-8 vs the spread when scoring less than 33 points. Under is 3-1-1 in last five Tennessee games, 5-2 in last seven Patriot tilts. In last five games, Tennessee started 38 drives 80+ yards from goal line, their opponents 20- they're getting killed in field position battle.

Cardinals (10-2) @ Eagles (6-7)-- Arizona won last seven games, clinches NFC West title with win here; Redbirds won last seven games, but covered one of last four- they're 4-2 as road favorites. Eagles scored 35-23 points in winning last two games; they're 6-1 if they score 23+ points, 0-6 if they don't. Arizona allowed 23+ in five of 13 games, none of last three. Cardinals had -3 turnover ratio in both losses this year. West non-divisional favorites are 9-9 vs spread, 5-3 on road; NFC East underdogs are 8-13, 4-5 at home. Last three Cardinal games stayed under total; three of last four Philly games went over. Arizona won four of last five series games; home side is 7-1 in last eight in series.

Panthers (13-0) @ Giants (6-7)-- Unbeaten Carolina is 5-4 vs Giants; last four in series were decided by 13+ points. Panthers scored 33+ in last four games; they're 4-1 as road favorites this year- five of their last six wins were by 8+. Giants allowed 25 ppg in losing last two home games; they're on short week after Monday nite win in Miami. Carolina has run ball for 147 ypg in last four games. Giants are 1-6 in games decided by less than 7 points. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 12-9, 5-3 on road; NFC East underdogs are 8-13, 4-5 at home. Over is 8-3 in last eleven Carolina games; three of last four Giant games stayed under the total.

Browns (3-10) @ Seahawks (8-5)-- Steamrolling Seattle scored 34.6 ppg in its five post-bye games, winning/covering last four; Seahawks haven't allowed an offensive TD in last two games- they're 3-3 as a home favorite- only TD they allowed in last two games was kick return when up 38-7. Cleveland lost seven of last eight games; they're 2-4 as road underdog, losing last three on road by combined 84-25. Teams split four series games; Browns lost 34-7 in only visit here, in '03. AFC North non-divisional road underdogs are 6-5-1 vs spread; NFC West home favorites are 4-6. Four of last five Cleveland games stayed under; over is 4-0-1 in last five Seattle games.

Packers (9-4) @ Raiders (6-7)-- McCarthy took over play calling last week and Green Bay ran ball for 230 yards on rainy day; they've won three of last four games, lead AFC North but have tough schedule rest of way. Pack is 3-2 as a road favorite. Oakland allowed 64 points in losing last two home games; they are 6-3 vs spread as an underdog this year. Packers won last six series games, last three by average of 42-10- this is only their third visit to Oakland (1-1, 1-1 vs Raiders in LA). NFC North non-divisional favorites are 9-7 vs spread, 1-3 on road; AFC West underdogs are 10-6, 3-1 at home. Eight of last ten Green Bay games stayed under total.

Dolphins (5-8) @ Chargers (3-10)-- This is likely Chargers' last home game in San Diego, will be an emotional day. Bolts are 1-8 since a 2-2 start; they tried hard in rainy Arrowhead LW, losing 10-3 with Rivers playing after being sick late in week. Chargers lost last five home games, didn't score TD in last two. Long travel on short week for Miami after Monday nite loss; Dolphins lost three of last four road games; they're 1-8 if they allow 20+ points, 4-0 if they hold foe under 20. Chargers scored more than 20 once in last five games. Home side won last five Dolphin-Charger games- Miami lost 23-13/26-16 in last two visits here. Four of last five San Diego games stayed under total.

Broncos (10-3) @ Steelers (8-5)-- Denver is 3-1 in Osweiler starts, but scored 17 or less points in three of four games. Steelers won four of last five games, scoring 30+ points in all five. Pitt is 3-1 as home favorite- their last three wins were all by 13+ points. Broncos are 4-0 SU as an underdog TY; they ran ball for only 34 yards LW, after running for 161 ypg in Osweiler's first three starts. Denver won four of last five series games; they won 24-21/31-20 in last two visits to Steel City. AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 10-6 vs spread, 7-5 on road. AFC North favorites are 9-7, 7-5 at home. Three of four Osweiler starts stayed under total; four of last five Steeler games went over.

Bengals (10-3) @ 49ers (4-9)-- McCarron gets first NFL start here, with Dalton out with broken thumb; last Alabama QB to win NFL start was Jeff Rutledge in 1988 (Giants). 49ers are 3-3 SU at home (4-2 as home dogs) losing by 14-17-6 points. Bengals are 2-3 last five games after an 8-0 start; they're 5-1 on road, with only loss by FG at Arizona, but that was with Dalton at QB. Cincinnati turned ball over three times last week for first time this year. Niners are 11-3 vs Cincy, including two Super Bowl wins; Bengals lost five of six visits here, with only win in 1974. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 10-7 vs spread, 3-2 on road; NFC West underdogs are 7-9, 5-2 at home. Under is 5-2 in last seven games for both sides.

Lions (4-9) @ Saints (5-8)-- New Orleans snapped 4-game skid LW; they are 3-3 at home TY, 1-2-1 as home favorites, with wins by 6-10-3 at home- they're 3-8-1 in last 12 games as home faves. Detroit lost two in row; they're 0-9 vs spread this season when allowing more than 16 points. Lions lost five of six road games, with only win at Green Bay, where they hadn't won since '91- they're 2-3 as road underdogs. Saints won four of last five series games, with average total, 57.8; Detroit lost five of last six visits here, with all five losses by 11+ points. NFC North non-divisional underdogs are 10-7 vs spread, 8-3 on road; NFC South favorites are 12-11, 7-6 at home. Since 2012, Detroit is 6-12 vs spread when getting points on the road.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Thursday, December 17

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football betting preview: Buccaneers at Rams
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tampa Bay's disappointing campaign has not deterred quarterback Jameis Winston, who threw for 182 yards versus the Saints to raise his season total to 3,059 - a franchise rookie record.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at St. Louis Rams (-1.5, 41)

A pair of high-profile rookies square off Thursday night as the St. Louis Rams host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in their final home game of the season. St. Louis halted its five-game losing streak last week with a 21-14 triumph over Detroit at the Edward Jones Dome, where it has recorded four of its five wins this campaign.

Todd Gurley led the way for the Rams, running for 140 yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries to climb within 25 of joining Eric Dickerson (1983) and Jerome Bettis (1993) as the only rookies in franchise history to rush for 1,000 yards. Tampa Bay's slim playoff hopes took a hit Sunday when it suffered a 24-17 loss to New Orleans at home. The Buccaneers, who haven't qualified for the postseason since 2007, are two games off the pace in the NFC wild-card race and could officially be eliminated from contention this weekend. Tampa Bay's disappointing campaign has not deterred quarterback Jameis Winston, who threw for 182 yards versus the Saints to raise his season total to 3,059 - a franchise rookie record.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened this game as a Pick, but that has moved to -1.5. The total has remained at the opening number of 41.

INJURY REPORT:

Bucs - DT Gerald McCoy (Probable, hand), LB Lavonte David (Probable, ankle), DT Akeem Spence (Questionable, ankle), G Logan Mankins (Questionable, undisclosed), DE George Johnson (Questionable, calf), DE Jacquies Smith (Questionable, hamstring), LB Bruce Carter (Questionable, leg), WR Vincent Jackson (Out indefinitely, knee), LB Kwon Alexander (Out for season, suspension), DT Clinton McDonald (I-R, pectoral), WR Louis Murphy (I-R, knee), T.J. Fatinikun (I-R, shoulder), WR Kenny Bell (I-R, hamstring), DE Larry English (I-R, knee).

Rams - RB Todd Gurley (Probable, knee), T Rob Havenstein (Questionable, calf), DE Robert Quinn (Questionable, back), T Andrew Donnal (Questionable, knee), CB Janoris Jenkins (Questionable, concussion), RB Trey Watts (Out for season, suspension), WR Stedman Bailey (I-R, head), S T.J. McDonald (I-R, shoulder), T Jamon Brown (I-R, leg), T Darrell Williams (I-R, wrist), CB E.J. Gaines (I-R, foot), LB Alec Ogletree (I-R, leg), G Rodger Saffold (I-R, shoulder).

WEATHER: N/A

POWER RANKINGS: Bucs (+1) + Rams (+5) + home field (-3.0) = Rams +1

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Bucs lost SU at home on Sunday, likely dooming their playoff chances. They also lost second leading receiver Vincent Jackson to a potential season ending MCL injury. Last week I wrote about Todd Gurley’s dramatic decline in this spot. Then Gurley stepped up with his best game in months on Sunday, gashing the Lions for 140 yards and two TD’s."

ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (6-7 SU, 7-6 ATS, 6-7 O/U): Doug Martin ranks second in the league with 1,214 rushing yards and third in the NFC with 1,413 yards from scrimmage. The 26-year-old has recorded six touchdowns in his last 10 games, including five on the ground. Winston is the third rookie quarterback in league history to eclipse the 3,000-yard mark.

ABOUT THE RAMS (5-8 SU, 5-7-1 ATS, 3-10 O/U): One bright spot for St. Louis this season has been its ability to get to the opposing quarterback. The Rams are second in the NFC with 36 sacks, including 11 by Aaron Donald. The 24-year-old, who is second in the conference in sacks, leads all NFL defensive tackles with 20 since the start of the 2014 campaign

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Underdog is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Buccaneers are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games in December.
* Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last six Thursday games.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-eight percent of bettors are backing the Rams.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL ATS

NFL > (329) CINCINNATI@ (330) SAN FRANCISCO | 2015-12-20 16:25:00 - 2015-12-20 16:25:00
Play AGAINST SAN FRANCISCO against the spread in All games in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points
The record is 0 Wins and 9 Losses for the last two seasons (-9.9 units)

NFL > (315) TENNESSEE@ (316) NEW ENGLAND | 2015-12-20 13:00:00 - 2015-12-20 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE against the spread in All games against conference opponents
The record is 3 Wins and 16 Losses for the last two seasons (-14.6 units)

NFL > (307) ATLANTA@ (308) JACKSONVILLE | 2015-12-20 13:00:00 - 2015-12-20 13:00:00
Play AGAINST ATLANTA against the spread in All games off a division game
The record is 0 Wins and 8 Losses for the last two seasons (-8.8 units)

NFL > (321) CLEVELAND@ (322) SEATTLE | 2015-12-20 16:05:00 - 2015-12-20 16:05:00
Play ON SEATTLE against the spread in All games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season
The record is 8 Wins and 0 Losses for the last three seasons (+8 units)

NFL > (315) TENNESSEE@ (316) NEW ENGLAND | 2015-12-20 13:00:00 - 2015-12-20 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE against the spread in All games in December games
The record is 0 Wins and 8 Losses for the last three seasons (-8.8 units)

NFL > (305) CHICAGO@ (306) MINNESOTA | 2015-12-20 13:00:00 - 2015-12-20 13:00:00
Play AGAINST CHICAGO against the spread in Road games in December games
The record is 11 Wins and 32 Losses for the since 1992 (-24.2 units)

NFL > (321) CLEVELAND@ (322) SEATTLE | 2015-12-20 16:05:00 - 2015-12-20 16:05:00
Play ON SEATTLE against the spread in All games in December games
The record is 10 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+8.9 units)

NFL > (327) DENVER@ (328) PITTSBURGH | 2015-12-20 16:25:00 - 2015-12-20 16:25:00
Play ON DENVER against the spread in Road games in games played on a grass field
The record is 10 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+8.9 units)

NFL > (325) MIAMI@ (326) SAN DIEGO | 2015-12-20 16:25:00 - 2015-12-20 16:25:00
Play AGAINST MIAMI against the spread in All games in December games
The record is 0 Wins and 7 Losses for the last two seasons (-7.7 units)

NFL > (329) CINCINNATI@ (330) SAN FRANCISCO | 2015-12-20 16:25:00 - 2015-12-20 16:25:00
Play ON CINCINNATI against the spread in all games
The record is 10 Wins and 2 Losses for the this season (+7.8 units)

-----------------------

NFL MONEYLINE

NFL > (319) CAROLINA@ (320) NY GIANTS | 2015-12-20 13:00:00 - 2015-12-20 13:00:00
Play ON CAROLINA using money line in All games after 2 or more consecutive wins
The record is 14 Wins and 2 Losses for the last two seasons (+13.2 units)

NFL > (331) DETROIT@ (332) NEW ORLEANS | 2015-12-21 20:30:00 - 2015-12-21 20:30:00
Play AGAINST NEW ORLEANS using money line in Home games in December games
The record is 20 Wins and 33 Losses for the since 1992 (-43.95 units)

NFL > (315) TENNESSEE@ (316) NEW ENGLAND | 2015-12-20 13:00:00 - 2015-12-20 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE using money line in All games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 7 Wins and 28 Losses for the last three seasons (-25.9 units)

NFL > (317) ARIZONA@ (318) PHILADELPHIA | 2015-12-20 20:30:00 - 2015-12-20 20:30:00
Play ON ARIZONA using money line in All games in games where the money line is +130 to -150
The record is 15 Wins and 2 Losses for the last three seasons (+13.8 units)

NFL > (319) CAROLINA@ (320) NY GIANTS | 2015-12-20 13:00:00 - 2015-12-20 13:00:00
Play ON CAROLINA using money line in All games as a favorite
The record is 16 Wins and 1 Losses for the last two seasons (+14.5 units)

NFL > (331) DETROIT@ (332) NEW ORLEANS | 2015-12-21 20:30:00 - 2015-12-21 20:30:00
Play AGAINST NEW ORLEANS using money line in Home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season
The record is 17 Wins and 19 Losses for the since 1992 (-37.2 units)

NFL > (315) TENNESSEE@ (316) NEW ENGLAND | 2015-12-20 13:00:00 - 2015-12-20 13:00:00
Play ON NEW ENGLAND using money line in All games in games played on turf
The record is 35 Wins and 4 Losses for the last three seasons (+27.2 units)

NFL > (303) NY JETS@ (304) DALLAS | 2015-12-19 20:25:00 - 2015-12-19 20:25:00
Play AGAINST DALLAS using money line in Home games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season
The record is 17 Wins and 22 Losses for the since 1992 (-36.8 units)

NFL > (319) CAROLINA@ (320) NY GIANTS | 2015-12-20 13:00:00 - 2015-12-20 13:00:00
Play ON CAROLINA using money line in All games in December games
The record is 10 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+11.3 units)

NFL > (325) MIAMI@ (326) SAN DIEGO | 2015-12-20 16:25:00 - 2015-12-20 16:25:00
Play ON MIAMI using money line in All games against AFC West division opponents
The record is 41 Wins and 15 Losses for the since 1992 (+32.6 units)

NFL > (301) TAMPA BAY@ (302) ST LOUIS | 2015-12-17 20:25:00 - 2015-12-17 20:25:00
Play AGAINST TAMPA BAY using money line in All games in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points
The record is 2 Wins and 13 Losses for the last three seasons (-14 units)

NFL > (313) BUFFALO@ (314) WASHINGTON | 2015-12-20 13:00:00 - 2015-12-20 13:00:00
Play AGAINST WASHINGTON using money line in Home games when playing against a team with a losing record
The record is 30 Wins and 33 Losses for the since 1992 (-47.75 units)

---------------------

NFL FIRST HALF

NFL > (311) KANSAS CITY@ (312) BALTIMORE | 2015-12-20 13:00:00 - 2015-12-20 13:00:00
Play AGAINST BALTIMORE ?>in the first halfin All games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 0 Wins and 8 Losses for the this season (-8.8 units)

NFL > (301) TAMPA BAY@ (302) ST LOUIS | 2015-12-17 20:25:00 - 2015-12-17 20:25:00
Play ON ST LOUIS ?>in the first halfin All games as an underdog vs. the 1rst half line
The record is 16 Wins and 3 Losses for the last two seasons (+12.7 units)

NFL > (325) MIAMI@ (326) SAN DIEGO | 2015-12-20 16:25:00 - 2015-12-20 16:25:00
Play AGAINST MIAMI ?>in the first halfin Road games after playing on Monday night football
The record is 3 Wins and 17 Losses for the since 1992 (-15.7 units)

NFL > (319) CAROLINA@ (320) NY GIANTS | 2015-12-20 13:00:00 - 2015-12-20 13:00:00
Play ON CAROLINA ?>in the first halfin Road games against NFC East division opponents
The record is 19 Wins and 4 Losses for the since 1992 (+14.6 units)

NFL > (327) DENVER@ (328) PITTSBURGH | 2015-12-20 16:25:00 - 2015-12-20 16:25:00
Play ON PITTSBURGH ?>in the first halfin Home games against conference opponents
The record is 15 Wins and 3 Losses for the last three seasons (+11.7 units)

NFL > (321) CLEVELAND@ (322) SEATTLE | 2015-12-20 16:05:00 - 2015-12-20 16:05:00
Play AGAINST SEATTLE ?>in the first halfin Home games after 2 or more consecutive wins
The record is 0 Wins and 7 Losses for the last two seasons (-7.7 units)

NFL > (301) TAMPA BAY@ (302) ST LOUIS | 2015-12-17 20:25:00 - 2015-12-17 20:25:00
Play ON ST LOUIS ?>in the first halfin All games as a home underdog of 1.5 points or less vs. the 1rst half line
The record is 21 Wins and 6 Losses for the since 1992 (+14.4 units)

NFL > (303) NY JETS@ (304) DALLAS | 2015-12-19 20:25:00 - 2015-12-19 20:25:00
Play AGAINST NY JETS ?>in the first halfin All games in games where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5
The record is 1 Wins and 9 Losses for the last two seasons (-8.9 units)

NFL > (307) ATLANTA@ (308) JACKSONVILLE | 2015-12-20 13:00:00 - 2015-12-20 13:00:00
Play AGAINST JACKSONVILLE ?>in the first halfin All games when playing against a team with a losing record
The record is 1 Wins and 9 Losses for the last two seasons (-8.9 units)

----------------------

NFL TOTALS

NFL > (331) DETROIT@ (332) NEW ORLEANS | 2015-12-21 20:30:00 - 2015-12-21 20:30:00
Play UNDER DETROIT on the totalin Road games in games played on turf
The record is 0 Overs and 10 Unders for the last three seasons (+10 units)

NFL > (319) CAROLINA@ (320) NY GIANTS | 2015-12-20 13:00:00 - 2015-12-20 13:00:00
Play OVER CAROLINA on the totalin Road games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 9 Overs and 0 Unders for the last two seasons (+9 units)

NFL > (307) ATLANTA@ (308) JACKSONVILLE | 2015-12-20 13:00:00 - 2015-12-20 13:00:00
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the totalin All games after 2 or more consecutive losses
The record is 0 Overs and 9 Unders for the last two seasons (+9 units)

NFL > (331) DETROIT@ (332) NEW ORLEANS | 2015-12-21 20:30:00 - 2015-12-21 20:30:00
Play UNDER DETROIT on the totalin Road games against conference opponents
The record is 2 Overs and 15 Unders for the last three seasons (+12.8 units)

NFL > (321) CLEVELAND@ (322) SEATTLE | 2015-12-20 16:05:00 - 2015-12-20 16:05:00
Play UNDER CLEVELAND on the totalin All games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season
The record is 0 Overs and 9 Unders for the last three seasons (+9 units)

NFL > (307) ATLANTA@ (308) JACKSONVILLE | 2015-12-20 13:00:00 - 2015-12-20 13:00:00
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the totalin Road games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 1 Overs and 11 Unders for the last two seasons (+9.9 units)

NFL > (331) DETROIT@ (332) NEW ORLEANS | 2015-12-21 20:30:00 - 2015-12-21 20:30:00
Play UNDER DETROIT on the totalin All games when playing on Monday night
The record is 1 Overs and 12 Unders for the since 1992 (+10.9 units)

NFL > (305) CHICAGO@ (306) MINNESOTA | 2015-12-20 13:00:00 - 2015-12-20 13:00:00
Play UNDER MINNESOTA on the totalin All games as a favorite
The record is 0 Overs and 7 Unders for the this season (+7 units)

NFL > (319) CAROLINA@ (320) NY GIANTS | 2015-12-20 13:00:00 - 2015-12-20 13:00:00
Play UNDER CAROLINA on the totalin All games off a win against a division rival
The record is 17 Overs and 46 Unders for the since 1992 (+27.3 units)

NFL > (331) DETROIT@ (332) NEW ORLEANS | 2015-12-21 20:30:00 - 2015-12-21 20:30:00
Play UNDER DETROIT on the totalin All games in all games where the first half total is 25 or higher
The record is 0 Overs and 8 Unders for the last three seasons (+8 units)

[StarDust Bum]

*NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 15*

Larry Fitzgerald has torched the Eagles in past meetings and Arizona will likely dominate time of possession against Philadelphia Sunday night.

*New York Jets at Dallas Cowboys (+3.5, 42)*

Jets’ third-down defense vs. Cowboys’ third-down troubles

The Cowboys welcome Gang Green to Jerry’s World for a special Saturday night showdown in Arlington. Dallas has sputtered on offense all season, despite having one of the most talented offensive lines in football. That line hasn’t lived up to the hype and has struggled to make way on even the shortest plays.

The Cowboys are dead last in the NFL in converting third-and-1 situations and have an overall conversion percentage of just over 35 percent on third downs this season. That number has dropped the past three weeks, with Big D moving the chains on third down less than 25 percent of the time. Dallas was a despicable 1 for 11 on third down in last week’s loss to Green Bay, and went 0 for 2 on fourth-down attempts.

New York enters Week 15 among the best teams in the NFL in ushering opponents off the field. The Jets have allowed foes to convert on third down in just under 34 percent of those plays, trimming that to 25 percent over the past three games – third in the league during that span. New York stumped Tennessee on all but three of their 14 third-down attempts last week and limited the Giants to 4 for 15 on third downs the week before.

Daily fantasy watch: Jets D/ST


*Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens (+7.5, 41)*

Chiefs’ pass rush vs. Ravens’ retooled offensive line

The Chiefs were supposed to take a big hit to their pass rush when defensive standout Justin Houston went down with a knee injury four weeks ago. Houston, who has 7.5 sacks and leads the NFL in QB hurries, hasn’t been missed much in the past three games, however. Kansas City continues to bring big-time pressure, recording 10 sacks and limiting opposing quarterbacks to a 59 percent completion rate with Houston in the lineup.

The Chiefs top the NFL in defensive hurries with 125, according to SportingCharts.com, which is 21 more than the next team, the Oakland Raiders. Kansas City is fourth in sacks with 39 QB kills heading into Week 15, and that pressure has rushed opponents to complete just 58 percent of their pass versus the Chiefs, who have also picked off 18 wayward throws.

Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh has begun tinkering with his trenches to get a head start on the 2016 season. That’s especially true with the Raven’s offensive line, which has been playing musical chairs for most of the month. Harbaugh, whose o-line has allowed only 20 sacks on the season, is turning to some young, untested protectors in the final games, and doesn’t have much to lose with tackling dummies like Jimmy Clausen, Matt Schaub, and Ryan Mallet under center.

Daily fantasy watch: Kansas City D/ST


*Green Bay Packers at Oakland Raiders (+3, 47)*

Packers’ yards after the catch vs. Raiders’ YAC allowed

Aaron Rodgers returns to the Bay Area for a date with the Raiders. The former California star will be looking for a big day back home, and many of those gains will come courtesy of his receivers picking up yards after the catch. Green Bay is among the best teams at tacking on extra yardage after the reception, averaging more than six YAC per catch which ranks third most in the NFL.

The Packers' explosive offense has been dumbed down this season, thanks in part to the absence of deep threat Jordy Nelson. Green Bay, however, is making up for that with solid efforts on short passes. Last week in the win over Dallas, running backs James Starks and Eddie Lacy combined for five receptions worth 56 yards and a touchdown, with their legs doing the heavy lifting on those catch-and-runs. And then there’s Randall Cobb, who has picked up 324 of his total 737 receiving yards after the catch.

Oakland has been burned by extra yardage all season. The Raiders allowed opponents to rack up 148.5 yards after the catch per game, which is second most in the league. Oakland has done a good job slowing down running backs on the ground – allowing only 101 rushing yards per game – but have watched those same rushers turn into potent receivers, allowing 638 total receiving yards and an average gain of almost eight yards to running backs through the air.

Daily fantasy watch: RB James Starks


*Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5, 50.5)*

Cardinals’ clock-eating offense vs. Eagles’ offensive pace

When it comes to time with the football, these birds are of a different feather. Arizona comes into Week 15 as the top team in time of possession, averaging 32:27 with the ball per game. That time has been pumped up the past three games, in which the Cardinals controlled the clock for 36:24 in that span.

The Eagles, on the other hand, treat the pigskin like a Christmas fruit cake: they’re always in a rush to give it away. Philadelphia’s frenetic pace eats up only 25:56 per game – dead last in the NFL. And in the last three weeks, the Eagles have been especially thrifty with the football, averaging a TOP of just 24:30.

Sunday night’s game could be all about which team imposes their pace on the other. Arizona will look to attack through the air, which often keeps the clock stopped more that running, but won’t be rushing to the line to call the next play. And with the Cardinals dialing up the blitz more than any other team in the NFL, Philadelphia will look to put Arizona on its heels and wear them out with Chip Kelly’s up-tempo attack. Either way, the Cardinals should end up with plenty of touches.

Daily fantasy watch: WR Larry Fitzgerald

[StarDust Bum]

Public Fades - Week 15
December 17, 2015

One of the hardest things to handicap at the end of any sports season is which teams have packed it in and which teams that are giving it their all in spite of being out of playoff contention. In this week’s edition of “Public Fades,” we’ll take a look at two NFC squads that are on the outside looking in from a postseason perspective that will try to spoil the playoff dreams of their opponents.

Bears at Vikings (-5 ½, 43) – 1:00 PM EST

Minnesota still controls its own destiny for a playoff position in the NFC at 8-5, while sitting one game behind Green Bay for the top spot in the NFC North. The Vikings have hit the skids lately by losing three of their past four contests, all to teams that are likely headed to the postseason (Cardinals, Seahawks, and Packers). Mike Zimmer’s team returns home from last Thursday’s 23-20 setback at Arizona, as Minnesota tries to improve on a 4-2 mark at TCF Bank Stadium.

Chicago has been awful at home this season, owning a dreadful 1-5 record at Soldier Field following close losses to San Francisco and Washington. However, John Fox’s club has performed better on the highway by owning a respectable 4-2 mark, including victories at Green Bay, St. Louis, San Diego, and Kansas City as an underdog. The Bears are playing with revenge after losing on a last-second field goal to the Vikings in Week 8 by a 23-20 count, the only underdog loss in their previous eight opportunities.

So why back the Bears?

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson makes a case for fading the Vikings, “Minnesota gave a commendable effort Thursday against Arizona in a 23-20 loss, but the defense remains banged up with four starters missing last week’s game. Minnesota’s offense has failed to top 20 points in any of the last four games as well with the unit ranking 30th in the league in yards per game.”

“The Vikings are 4-2 S/U and ATS at home this season, but they have lost outright in the past two home games and this will be the biggest favorite spread for Minnesota at home since hosting the Bears last December. Chicago has won and covered in eight of the last 12 meetings with the Vikings and this is a Bears team still playing hard with some close misses separating Chicago from a much stronger season,” Nelson says.

NFL expert Antony Dinero feels the Bears had the Vikings on the ropes the first time around and should be able to come through on Sunday, “Although the Vikings are in the driver’s seat for a playoff bid, a divisional game against the healthy Bears will present a number of challenges. Chicago had Minnesota down 20-13 inside of two minutes the first time they played and has Alshon Jeffery plugged in again following an injury-plagued season. With key defensive starters Linval Joseph, Anthony Barr and Harrison Smith all having missed last week’s game due to injuries, the Vikes appear vulnerable.”

Falcons at Jaguars (-3, 49) – 1:00 PM EST

Two months ago, Atlanta owned a 5-0 record and a playoff spot in the NFC seemed like a slam dunk. Dan Quinn’s team has fallen apart since that unblemished start by losing seven of its last eight games with the only victory coming back in Week 7 at Tennessee. The Falcons are coming off their worst loss of the season last Sunday in a 38-0 defeat against undefeated Carolina. The offense has let down Atlanta during this cold eight-game stretch, scoring 21 points or less during each of these contests.

Jacksonville was left for dead following a 1-5 start, but the Jaguars are still in the mix for the AFC South title with three weeks remaining. The Jags are coming off their most productive offensive game in franchise history by dropping 51 points in a 51-16 blowout of the Colts last Sunday. Gus Bradley’s squad connected on an 80-yard touchdown pass, a punt return for a score, and a fumble return for a touchdown, while putting up 42 points in the second half. Prior to last week’s rout, Jacksonville’s first four victories came by a combined 14 points, as the Jags improved to 5-1-1 ATS the past seven contests.

So why back the Falcons?

Nelson feels the Jaguars are receiving plenty of respect even though the numbers don’t translate to success, “No one can fault a downtrodden franchise finally showing some life for pouring it on, but the statistics are now a bit inflated and Jacksonville is an elevated favorite this week. The Jaguars have been a favorite just eight times since 2011 with half of those instances coming this season, splitting the last four home games as a slight favorite. This is still a Jaguars team that has won just a third of its home games the past five seasons.”

For the exception of last week’s blowout at Carolina, Nelson mentions that Atlanta has been competitive during this losing stretch, “Turnovers and late game management have been issues for the Falcons but four of the last six losses have come by four or fewer points as most of the games have been close. This is a rare third straight road game for Atlanta, but all of the games have been in the southeast for minimal travel and the Falcons have covered in four of the last six games as a road underdog going back to last season, winning outright in three of those contests.”

[StarDust Bum]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 15
December 18, 2015

Last week the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Steelers (8-5) as 4.5-point home favorites over the Broncos (10-3) in their Early Week 15 lines suggesting they had Pittsburgh rated 1.5-points higher than the Broncos. Following the Week 14 games, that rating differential doubled.

“The Steelers would be -3 or -3.5 on a neutral field so -6 at Pittsburgh was the right number,” said SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay, who re-opened the game Sunday night at -6. “I actually think -5 is closer to being the right number. Minus-7 might be a little excessive.”

But that’s where his betting public forced the number. On Friday morning the SuperBook moved Pittsburgh from -6.5 to -7 EVEN while most of the city sits at -6.5.

“The Steelers rating has climbed just over the past week while Denver’s has dropped. The Broncos have a good defense, but its offense can’t run or protect the quarterback. They scored 12 last week and 17 the week before against two lousy defenses (Oakland, San Diego).”

Pittsburgh has the league’s No. 2 offense at 404 yards-per-game while Denver has the No. 1 ranked defense allowing only 272 yards per game, which is 35 yards less a game than No. 2 ranked Seattle.

Last week's game at Denver was a complete mystery. The Raiders, down 12-0 at halftime, ended up winning 15-12 with only 126 yards of total offense. The Broncos threw the ball 51 times and ran it only 21 times for 34 yards, an odd ratio for a team that led most of the game. And, Oakland's Khalil Mack sacked Broncos QB Brock Osweiler five times.

“I’m not all that surprised with the Raiders winning last week just because (Jack) Del Rio knows the Broncos so well and it was a division game; also the fact that Denver‘s offense hasn’t been able to score. When you have to settle for four field goals instead getting at least one touchdown, you’ve got problems and it usually comes back to haunt you.”

Peyton Manning had 17 interceptions before sitting due to a battle with planters fascitis, and Osweiler has only three in five games, but Osweiler is extremely conservative and the book is still out on him in regards to his true rating.

“I think Osweiler is just average,” said Kornegay.

Kornegay was talking on the phone driving into work Friday morning and all of sudden he started chuckling. “Funny, the car I just pulled up behind at the stop light has a Broncos helmet on the back window.”

Kornegay, who is a die-hard Broncos supporter, has been impressed with the Steelers lately and says that no team in the AFC is going to want to face them in the playoffs. Right now the Steelers are outside looking in at the playoff picture with the Chiefs (8-5) and Jets (8-5) sitting as the prospective No. 5 and No. 6 seeds.

“This Steelers offense is pretty scary and while Denver does have a good defense, its not like they slowed good QBs down like Tom Brady. Ben Roethlisberger and his core of receivers have been clicking better than any offense over the past five weeks."

Pittsburgh has scored 30 points or more in its last five games, with the only loss coming at Seattle, 39-30. Big Ben put up 465 yards passing on the "Legion of Boom." It's in those recent offensive numbers that has seen Pittsburgh rating rise.

So far this has been the most wagered game at the SuperBook.

“This is definitely going to be the largest wagered game of the weekend. Arizona and Philadelphia Sunday night will be a big one as well just because its an isolated game, but we’ll handle more on the Broncos-Steelers.”

Here’s a look at all the Early Week 15 numbers posted at the SuperBook last Wednesday and where the line has gone to as of Friday afternoon.

The movement on each of the games is due to market adjustments on Sunday, rating adjustments following Week 14 results, injuries and then actual cash wagered.

N.Y. Jets at Dallas (Saturday): The Jets opened -3 EVEN and now it's a steady -3.5 across town with William Hill books sitting at -3 -125.

Chicago at Minnesota: The Vikings opened -4 and they’re now -6 after two consecutive awful Chicago losses at home (49ers, Redskins). MGM and William Hill are at -5.5.

Atlanta at Jacksonville: This one opened at pick ’em and it’s a steady -3 across town. The Falcons have failed to cover their last nine games after starting 4-0 ATS. The Jaguars have gone 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games.

Houston at Indianapolis: Off the board due to QB injuries for both teams. The Colts are currently -2 with Matt Hasseleck expected to start under center. TJ Yates will start at QB for Houston.

Kansas City at Baltimore: The Chiefs opened -5 and it's up to -7. Matt Schaub practiced Thursday, but was still in discomfort and there’s a possibility Jimmy Clausen will start at QB for the Ravens, which is a significant drop off.

Buffalo at Washington: The Bills opened -1 and it's up to -1.5. CG Technology books have the high number at -2.

Tennessee at New England: The Patriots opened -10 and its now -14 with Station books at a high of -14.5. The Titans have gone 0-4-1 ATS in its last five. Tom Brady has tight end Rob Gronkonski back in the lineup, which is obviously huge.

Arizona at Philadelphia: The Cardinals opened -3.5 and it’s still there. CG Tech books have the high number at -4.

Carolina at N.Y. Giants: The Panthers opened -3.5 and now it’s -4 with several other books at -4.5.

Cleveland at Seattle: The Seahawks opened -13.5 and now it’s up to -15. There’s an 80 percent chance of rain for this one. Seattle is still without running back Marshawn Lynch, but have won by an average score of 35-14 over its past four games (4-0 ATS).

Green Bay at Oakland: The Packers opened -3 (-120) and they’re still there.

Miami at San Diego: The Chargers opened -1 and now it’s -1.5. San Diego has gone 1-11 ATS in its last 12 home games. The Dolphisn have gone 1-6 ATS in its last seven and 0-9 in its last nine December games.

Denver at Pittsburgh: The Steelers opened -4.5 and were re-opened Sunday at -6 and bet up to -6.5 on Wednesday. Friday morning it was bet up to -7.

Cincinnati at San Francisco: The Bengals opened -7 when QB Andy Dalton and TE Tyler Eifert were expected to play, and now with A.J. McCarron expected to start at QB and Eifert 'doubtful' the Bengals are sitting at -6. Interesting.

Detroit at New Orleans: The Saints opened -1.5 and it’s now -3 EVEN.

WESTGATE LAS VEGAS SUPERBOOK
EARLY NFL WEEK 16 NUMBERS (POSTED WEDNESDAY)

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 24, 2015
CHARGERS
RAIDERS -6.5

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 26, 2015
REDSKINS
EAGLES -4

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 27, 2015
GIANTS
VIKINGS -3 -120

BEARS
BUCS -3 EVEN

PANTHERS -6.5
FALCONS

COWBOYS
BILLS -5.5

JAGUARS
SAINTS -3.5

49ERS
LIONS -7

BROWNS
CHIEFS -11.5

COLTS
DOLPHINS OFF

PATRIOTS -3
JETS

TEXANS
TITANS OFF

PACKERS
CARDINALS -4.5

RAMS
SEAHAWKS -14

STEELERS
RAVENS OFF


MONDAY, DECEMBER 28, 2015
BENGALS
BRONCOS -4

[StarDust Bum]

Week 15 Tip Sheet
December 18, 2015

Texans at Colts (-2, 42) – 1:00 PM EST

The top two teams in the AFC South square off in a pseudo-playoff game as the winner is in a prime spot to claim the division title. Houston (6-7 SU, 6-7 ATS) climbed above the .500 mark two weeks ago after winning its fourth straight game, but Bill O’Brien’s team has gone backwards the last two weeks. The Texans lost to the Bills and Patriots, as the defense allowed 57 points in the two defeats after giving up just 36 points during the four-game winning streak. T.J. Yates will be starting at quarterback for the Texans, who have lost six straight meetings with the Colts, including a 27-20 home defeat back in Week 5.

The Colts (6-7 SU, 6-7 ATS) will likely be turning to their third starting quarterback this season, as Andrew Luck is still sidelined and Matt Hasselbeck is nursing a rib injury. Former Titans’ signal-caller Charlie Whitehurst could be called upon to start if Hasselbeck can’t go, as the Colts are coming off consecutive blowout losses on the road at Pittsburgh and Jacksonville. Indianapolis got outscored 96-20 in those two defeats, while allowing 51 points in last week’s loss at Jacksonville to suffer its first division loss in four tries. Chuck Pagano’s squad has struggled in the favorite role this season by posting a 1-5 ATS mark when laying points.

Bills (- 1 ½, 44) at Redskins – 1:00 PM EST

Another matchup between below .500 teams takes place at FedEx Field as both Buffalo and Washington are in must-win spots. The Redskins (6-7 SU, 6-7 ATS) begin Week 15 in a three-way tie atop the NFC East alongside the Giants and Eagles, as Washington travels to Philadelphia next week. Jay Gruden’s club became the final team in the NFL to win a road game this season following five losses on the highway in last Sunday’s 24-21 triumph at Chicago as four-point underdogs. Kirk Cousins has thrown at least one touchdown pass in all 13 starts this season, while coming off a 300-yard performance at Chicago. The final hurdle the Redskins have to jump is winning consecutive games, which they have yet to do this season.

Buffalo (6-7 SU, 6-6-1 ATS) has no shot at winning the AFC East title, but Rex Ryan’s team needs a miracle in the final three weeks to qualify for the postseason. The Bills suffered a brutal loss at Philadelphia last week to fall two games behind the Chiefs, Jets, and Steelers for a Wild Card spot. Buffalo lost its third consecutive road game last Sunday and dropped to 0-2 against NFC foes. The Bills have cashed the ‘under’ in three of the past four games away from Orchard Park, while the ‘under’ has hit in four off six contests with a total listed at 44 or higher.

Panthers (-4, 48) at Giants – 1:00 PM EST

Three games remain as Carolina (13-0 SU, 10-3 ATS) looks to become the second team in NFL history to finish 16-0 in the regular season. The Panthers pulled off their first shutout of the season in last Sunday’s 38-0 blanking of the Falcons as 8 ½-point favorites. Ron Rivera’s club has covered in four of five opportunities as a road favorite with the lone ATS defeat coming in a 41-38 victory at New Orleans two weeks ago as 5 ½-point chalk. Carolina has cashed the ‘over’ in four of the last five away contests, while going 8-3 to the ‘over’ in the past 11 games overall.

The NFC East race will come down to the wire as the Giants (6-7 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) try to avoid a fifth loss this season while holding a lead late in the fourth quarter. Last Monday night, New York rallied past Miami, 31-24 thanks to a pair of second half touchdown connections between Eli Manning and Odell Beckham, Jr. The Giants have lost each of their last two home games by a combined four points to the Jets and Patriots, as Tom Coughlin’s club owns a dreadful 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS record as a home underdog since 2013. New York is hosting Carolina for the first time since opening week of the 2010 season when the Giants defeated the Panthers, 31-18 as 5 ½-point favorites.

Packers (-3 ½, 48) at Raiders – 4:05 PM EST

The NFC North race is starting to open as Green Bay (9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS) owns a one-game lead over Minnesota heading into the final three weeks. The Packers won their second straight since a 1-4 run in November after beating the Cowboys in Week 14 by a 28-7 count as six-point favorites. Green Bay’s rushing game finally woke up by racking up 230 yards on 44 carries, highlighted by Eddie Lacy’s season-high 124 yards. Mike McCarthy’s squad is riding a 7-2 run to the ‘under’ the last nine games, but each of those ‘overs’ came away from Lambeau Field.

One of the top turnarounds in the NFL this season has come from the Bay Area, as the Raiders (6-7 SU, 7-6 ATS) have already eclipsed their season win total of 5 ½. The clinching victory to cash those tickets came at Denver last Sunday in a 15-12 triumph as six-point underdogs. The Raiders erased a 12-0 halftime deficit by outscoring the Broncos, 15-0 in the second half, while Oakland’s defense limited Denver to four field goals. Jack Del Rio’s team has lost four of six games at the O.Co Coliseum this season, while the only home victory over a squad currently above .500 coming in Week 8 over the Jets.

Broncos at Steelers (-7, 44 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

Denver’s offense was held out of the end zone in last week’s 15-12 loss to Oakland, but the Broncos (10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS) still possess a two-game advantage over the Chiefs in the AFC West race. In four weeks since Brock Osweiler took over for Peyton Manning at quarterback, the Broncos have produced 17 points or less three times, but the defense has allowed their opponents to score 15 points or fewer three times. Denver has taken care of business on the highway this season, winning six of seven road contests, while Gary Kubiak’s club has won and covered all three times in the underdog role.

Six weeks ago, the Steelers (8-5 SU, 8-4-1 ATS) were teetering at 4-4, but Pittsburgh has won four of its past five games. Mike Tomlin’s squad prevented Cincinnati from clinching the AFC North title last Sunday in a 33-20 triumph over the Bengals as short underdogs. Pittsburgh has topped the 30-point mark in five consecutive contests, while the defense intercepted Cincinnati’s quarterbacks three times last week. The Steelers are hosting the Broncos for the first time since 2006, as Denver has won four of the past five meetings.

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Jets travel to Dallas
December 17, 2015


NEW YORK JETS (8-5) at DALLAS COWBOYS (4-9)
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: New York -3.5, Total: 42

The struggling Cowboys will be hosting a Jets team that is hungry for a chance to play in the postseason on Saturday.

New York looked like it was ready to fade away in the AFC playoff race, but the team has won three straight games. The Jets dominated the Titans in New York in Week 14, winning 30-8 as an eight-point home favorite. They are now 2-0-1 ATS in their past three contests and their last two games have gone Under the total.

The Cowboys, meanwhile, lost 28-7 in Green Bay last week. Dallas has won two of its past three games both SU and ATS. The team has also gone Under the total in its previous two games heading into this contest.

The Jets and Cowboys have met just five times since 1992. Dallas is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in those contests and three of the five have gone Under the total. Favoring the Jets in this one is the fact that the Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in home games after failing to cover in two of their past three games over the last three seasons. The Cowboys are, however, an impressive 33-17 ATS after a loss by 14 or more points since 1992.

The Jets were supposed to be relying on their defense this season, but they have actually been explosive on the offensive side of the ball over the past few weeks. Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing the best football of his life for New York, throwing for nine touchdowns and zero interceptions over the past three weeks. He has thrown for 263 yards or more in each of those games and will look to stay hot with a big performance on Saturday. He should be okay as long as he is giving his receivers a chance to make plays.

Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall have been one of the best pass-catching duos in the league this season, as Decker has 66 receptions for 875 yards and nine touchdowns and Marshall has 89 receptions for 1,187 yards and 11 touchdowns.

As long as the Jets can stop the run then they should be victorious in this game. That should not be a problem, as New York is allowing just 78.9 rushing yards per game (1st in NFL).

The Cowboys had high hopes this season, but a series of injuries has left Matt Cassel as the team’s starting quarterback. Cassel has not thrown a touchdown pass since Nov. 26 and he just is not getting the job done for Dallas. His completion percentage was 44.8% against the Packers and if he is not more effective on Saturday then he will likely lose his starting job.

The one thing that can keep the Cowboys in this game is the play of Darren McFadden. Dallas has been relying heavily on the running game and McFadden has answered the call, rushing for 798 yards with three touchdowns on the year. Not much was expected of him before the year, but he has been the least of Dallas’ concerns.

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B]Brady listed as questionable for Sunday[/B]
December 18, 2015

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. (AP) New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady was listed on the team's injury report Friday with an illness that made him questionable Sunday against the Tennessee Titans.

Brady did not practice with the team, according to the injury report.

Since he took over when Drew Bledsoe was injured in Week 2 of the 2001 season, Brady has played in every game of every season except for 2008, when he was injured in the first quarter of the opener and missed the rest of the season.

Backup Jimmy Garoppolo has appeared in four games this season and has not thrown a pass this year.

The injury report also said linebackers Eric Martin (concussion) and Jonathan Freeny (hand) would miss Sunday's game. Receiver Julian Edelman is doubtful, meaning he is likely to miss his fifth straight game since breaking his foot.

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Manning too sore to practice Friday
December 18, 2015

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. (AP) Peyton Manning's left foot was sore Friday so he didn't practice after running the Denver Broncos' scout team for two days.

Manning's foot has bothered him for months and he's been sidelined since mid-November with a torn plantar fascia that required a cast or boot for 10 days.

He returned to practice Wednesday but after two days of running the scout team, he reported to work saying he was sore.

''So we said, OK, we'll stop for the weekend and go from there,'' coach Gary Kubiak said.

Kubiak had already ruled out the league's only five-time MVP for Sunday's game at Pittsburgh (8-5), when Brock Osweiler will make his fifth consecutive start for Denver (10-3).

The Broncos practiced outside on damp fields Friday after spending two days inside because of a heavy snowstorm and frigid temperatures, but Kubiak said ''that had nothing to do with'' holding Manning out.

Manning was walking around after practice without any limp and Kubiak said Manning would make the trip ''and be a part of everything we're doing and he'll be on the sidelines, I'd assume. Sidelines or press box, one or the other, but I'd assume it would be sidelines.''

This will be the first trip Manning has made since being sidelined. He missed trips to Chicago and San Diego and watched the Patriots-Broncos game from inside the locker room before watching Denver's 15-12 loss to Oakland last weekend from the sideline.

Manning's father, Archie, said in a television interview this week that his son's left foot was bothering him since before the season even started. On Dec. 2, Manning told a few news outlets, including The Associated Press, in an interview at his locker that he'd been ailing for some time but he declined to say exactly when his foot began bothering him.

''I know that his foot has been sore since we left Indianapolis'' on Nov. 8, Kubiak said. ''So, it's something that we've been dealing with and trying to deal with it the right way to get him back to where he feels really good. The progress has been very good. That's all I know.''

In addition to Manning, Kubiak said safeties T.J. Ward (ankle) and Omar Bolden (hamstring) and linebacker Lerentee McCray (hamstring) would miss Sunday's game.

Also, safety Darian Stewart (hamstring) was 50-50 after missing practice all week. He's one of a half-dozen players listed as questionable.

For the second straight week, the Broncos had 22 players listed on their injury report.

''Half the damn team,'' Kubiak said.

He said he expects Ward to return to practice Wednesday.

But Bolden had a setback in his return. ''We thought he would be ready to go,'' Kubiak said. ''He practiced on Wednesday. He came out on Thursday, went about five minutes and said it was bothering him, so we shut him down.''

Notes: DL Malik Jackson returned to practice Friday as a proud first-time papa following the birth of his daughter, Nahla, on Thursday. ''My whole goal is just make her a trust-fund baby. I have the right job to be able to do that,'' said Jackson, a pending free agent who is in line for a big pay raise this offseason.

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NFL

Saturday, December 19

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Saturday Night Football betting preview: Jets at Cowboys
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The Jets are 9-1-1 against the spread in their last 11 games in December.

New York Jets at Dallas Cowboys (+3.5, 41.5)

The New York Jets look for their fourth straight win and try to keep pace in the playoff race when they visit the Dallas Cowboys on Saturday night. The Jets currently hold the final wild-card berth but don't control their own destiny as they need to continue to pile up the victories and have either Pittsburgh or Kansas City lose another game to have a shot at the postseason.

Led by Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Jets' offense is firing on all cylinders. Fitzpatrick enters Saturday's game with 24 touchdown passes, just five shy of Vinny Testaverde's franchise record. His top targets, Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, are also nearing milestones - Marshall is six receptions away from breaking Al Toon's team single-season mark of 93 and Decker needs 125 yards to reach 1,000 for the season. Dallas' offense is quite the opposite, falling completely apart since Tony Romo fractured his collarbone. Dez Bryant caught just one pass in the Cowboys' 28-7 loss at Green Bay last week and the Cowboys have plummeted to 28th in the league in total offense.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Cowboys as 3-point home dogs but that has moved to +3.5. The total opened at 42 but is down to 41.5.

WEATHER FORECAST: N/A

POWER RANKINGS: Jets (-2.5) - Cowboys (+4) + home field (-3.0) = Jets -3.5

INJURY REPORT:

Jets - WR Jeremy Kerley (Questionable, calf), DB Dion Bailey (Questionable, ankle), DB Marcus Williams (Questionable, knee), RB Zac Stacy (Out for season, ankle), WR Devin Smith (I-R, knee), DE Mike Catapano (I-R, foot), G Willie Colon (I-R, knee), K Nick Folk (I-R, quad), S Antonio Allen (I-R, Achilles), TE Jace Amaro (I-R, shoulder), TE Zach Sudfeld (I-R, knee).

Cowboys - DE Demarcus Lawrence (Questionable, chest), CB Morris Claiborne (Questionable, hamstring), OL Chaz Green (Questionable, hip), LB Mark Nzeocha (Questionable, knee), LB Rolando McClain (Questionable, concussion), QB Tony Romo (Out for season, collarbone), Ryan Russell (I-R, abdominal), RB Lance Dunbar (I-R, knee), DT Terrell McClain (I-R, toe), CB Orlando Scandrick (I-R, knee).

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "With a three TD effort against the Titans, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick set his career high for TD passes and is now ranked in the Top 10 in QB rating for the first time in his career. Dallas enters Saturday?s home game against the Jets riding a 12-26 ATS run at home dating back to the start of the 2011 campaign; just 1-5 SU and ATS at Jerry?s World this year."

ABOUT THE JETS (8-5 SU, 7-5-1 ATS, 7-6 O/U): New York has racked up 10 wins or more 10 times in its history and all 10 times it has reached the playoffs. This season, however, even 11 wins might not be enough for the Jets, who rank 10th in the NFL in points scored (25.0) and points allowed (19.7). New York lost receiver Devin Smith to a torn ACL last week and Jeremy Kerley is questionable with a calf injury, but its depth has been outstanding. Chris Ivory has rushed for 914 yards and his backup, Bilal Powell, has scored touchdowns in each of the past two weeks while amassing 190 yards from scrimmage.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (4-9 SU, 4-9 ATS, 5-8 O/U): Bryant admitted that his surgically repaired foot was hurting after last week's game but Dallas has no plans of shutting him down for the season. Perhaps that's because the Cowboys, who are 1-5 at home, are still mathematically alive for a playoff berth, but even owner Jerry Jones admitted those chances are "very, very slim." Darren McFadden was the lone bright spot last week, gaining 111 yards on nine carries to leave him 202 yards shy of a 1,000-yard season that would net him a $300,000 bonus.

TRENDS:

* Jets are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games in December.
* Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Under is 4-1 in Cowboys last five games following a straight up loss.
* Under is 4-1 in Jets last five games in December.

CONSENSUS: Seventy percent of bettors are backing the Jets.

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SNF - Jets at Cowboys
December 19, 2015


After stealing a game on a Monday night in Landover to close out Week 13, the Cowboys held out hope that their season-long nightmare might have a happy ending after all. Last week in Green Bay, the Packers basically snuffed out those aspirations with a 28-7 rout.

While still not mathematically eliminated, Dallas has to win out and hope everyone else in the NFC East loses in the right combination to sneak into the playoffs as a 7-9 team. The Cowboys have won once without injured QB Tony Romo despite the fact he’s played only four games, leaving half of them with collarbone injuries. Brandon Weeden went 0-3 and is now in Houston. Matt Cassel is 1-5 in starts and has shown little improvement, throwing for 114 yards against the Packers and giving his team very little chance to be successful.

Dez Bryant was targeted seven times in Green Bay last Sunday and made a single nine-yard reception while recording multiple drops. Although he claims to be healthy after breaking his foot in Week 1, he’s also had knee issues and has a single 100-yard receiving game out of the eight he’s participated in. Bryant has got six catches for 97 yards over the last three games and has only scored a pair of touchdowns all season. We’ll see if the challenge of going one-on-one with Darrelle Revis sparks him to a vintage effort. The Cowboys need him to help Cassel be successful against a complicated opponent.

The Jets arrive in Dallas on a season-long three-game winning streak and have been installed as 3.5-point favorites on Saturday night. They’ll be playing away from East Rutherford for the first time since a Nov. 22 loss at Houston, having beaten the Dolphins and Titans in addition to a “road” game against the Giants. They’ve covered in all three wins, outscoring their vanquished foes by a combined margin of 91-48. Their success has them in the playoff hunt, threatening to end a postseason drought that dates back to 2010. Their 8-5 record is even with Pittsburgh and Kansas City, in the mix for the final two AFC Wild Card spots.

After Mark Sanchez, Geno Smith and stints kicking around the tires on Michael Vick and Matt Simms, New York has finally found its quarterback. Despite never reaching the playoffs himself in five previous stops, Ryan Fitzpatrick is enjoying a Pro Bowl-caliber season, currently up to a career-best 25 touchdown passes and just 11 interceptions. He’s been exceptional during this current Jets run, tossing for 930 yards and nine TDs without an interception.

Picks have been a problem for Fitzpatrick in the past – he threw 23 in one season in 2011 -- but he’s consistently avoided mistakes while establishing great chemistry with top targets Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, who have already combined for 20 touchdowns and over 2,000 receiving yards. It’s definitely not a good week for the Cowboys to be down corner Morris Claiborne, who despite his struggles is one of the team’s most dynamic athletes. Defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli has done a nice job keeping the Cowboys in games despite their offensive woes, but he’ll likely be down a pair of key defenders. Claiborne is doubtful with a hamstring injury. LB Rolando McClain (concussion) has already been ruled out. DE DeMarcus Lawrence, Dallas’ sack leader with six, is probable after missing practice time with a chest injury and forms a dangerous duo up front with Greg Hardy.

The Jets will aim to keep the Cowboys pass rush from being overly aggressive with a heavy helping of the Chris Ivory-led run game and a steady diet of screens to Bilal Powell. Powell has a touchdown catch in each of the last two games and 20 receptions for 211 yards over the last four games. Ivory ranks fifth in the NFL with 914 rushing yards after posting a 101-yard day in Sunday’s 30-8 blowout of Tennessee. Dallas has the 18th-ranked defense against the run. New York ranks No. 1, surrendering just 78.9 yards per game. It will be interesting to see how they fare against formidable Cowboys offensive line that has helped spring Darren McFadden to four 100-yard rushing games since he became the starter on Oct. 25, eight games ago. He had runs of 50 and 45 yards against Green Bay that undoubtedly got the attention of the Jets defense in this week’s film study.

Total-wise, this is a weird game to get a grasp on since there are feared playmakers on both sides of the ball set to do battle. New York’s defensive front against the Dallas o-line. Bryant vs. Revis. Ivory vs. terrific Cowboys outside linebacker Sean Lee.

The number opened as high as 43 at a few offshore betting shops and has dropped to 41.5 as of Saturday morning. VegasInsider.com NFL totals expert Chris David believes the opener was high and agrees with the early move.

“The Cowboys have seen the ‘under’ go 8-5 this season and that includes a 4-1 run in their last five games. With Cassel at quarterback, Dallas is a one-dimensional team and they’re averaging 15 PPG in his seven starts this season. Defensively, the Cowboys are ranked ninth in total defense (334 YPG) and they are the third best team in time of possession. Two of the most important factors for winning ‘under’ tickets are a solid defense and a ball control offense, which Dallas certainly has.” explained David.

“The Jets have a little more pop on offense than the Cowboys but they’re definitely not a juggernaut and their offensive numbers are very inconsistent. At home, New York is averaging 27.9 PPG while nearly a touchdown less on the road (21.7 PPG). The Jets have slightly leaned to the ‘over’ (7-6) this season and with this number being so low, I wouldn’t be surprised to see another game go the high side knowing that the Jets have seen 41 or more combined points scored in 10 of their 13 games this season.”

The Jets have played in two primetime games this season and both went ‘under’ the total while Dallas is 3-1 to the ‘under’ in its four contests played under the lights in 2015.

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SATURDAY, DECEMBER 19

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

NYJ at DAL 08:25 PM

DAL +3.0 TRIPLE PLAY

U 41.0 TRIPLE PLAY