NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Army/Navy and Bowl Season (Saturday, December 12 - Saturday, January 2)

[Udog]

NCAAF

Friday, January 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Day: College football New Year's Day bowl games
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Ohio State Buckeyes are 5-2 ATS in their last seven bowl games.


Outback Bowl

(12) Northwestern Wildcats vs. Tennessee Volunteers (-8, 48)

Game played at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida

1. Tennessee and Northwestern look to end breakout seasons on a high note when they meet in the Outback Bowl on Jan. 1 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. Tennessee won its last five to reach eight victories for the first time since posting 10 with a win at the Outback Bowl in 2007. The Wildcats finished the regular season with five consecutive victories and go for a school-record 11th in Tampa where they lost 38-35 in overtime Jan. 1, 2010 at the Outback Bowl.

2. Both teams depend on their rushing attacks with multi-purpose quarterbacks and 1,000-yard sophomore running backs leading the way. Northwestern’s freshman signal caller Clayton Thorson has thrown for seven touchdowns and rushed for another five while Justin Jackson was fourth in the Big Ten in all-purpose yards with 1,491 – 1,344 on the ground with four scores. Jalen Hurd was fourth in the SEC with 1,158 yards rushing to go along with 11 scores for the Volunteers and quarterback Joshua Dobbs accounted for 24 touchdowns – 15 passing and nine rushing.

3. Special teams could become a major factor as Tennessee boasts six return touchdowns this season – three on punts and three on kickoffs. Evan Berry took three kickoffs back for scores and averaged a national-best 38.3 yards per return while Cameron Sutton (18.7 yards per return, leading the country) scored twice and Alvin Kamara once returning punts for the Volunteers. Tennessee led the nation in kick returns while ranking second behind Texas A&M on punts and Northwestern is 56th and fourth (2.13), respectively, defending them.

TV: Noon ET, ESPN2.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Vols as 9-point faves, but that has moved to -8. The total is up to 48 from the opening 45.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the high 70s under partly cloudy skies.

ABOUT NORTHWESTERN (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS, 4-8 O/U): The Wildcats’ defense allowed an average of 14 points the last four games, led by sophomore linebacker Anthony Walker and senior defensive lineman Deonte Gibson. Walker, who was named to the Big Ten first team, has 113 tackles – 19.5 for loss – this season and Gibson boasts nine sacks, but All-Big Ten second team cornerback Nick VanHoose (three interceptions) is not expected to play due to a finger injury. Thorson has been intercepted seven times and completed only 51.6 percent of his passes with fullback Dan Vitale (33 catches, 355 yards) as his top target.

ABOUT TENNESSEE (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS, 6-6 O/U): Dobbs has raised his production as a junior with 2,125 yards through the air, a near 60 percent completion rate and just five interceptions. Dobbs, who was picked off 12 times in his first two seasons while throwing fewer passes combined than he did during the 2015 campaign, has found seven different players for at least two scoring strikes, five of whom have 270 receiving yards or more. Josh Malone has 29 receptions for 388 yards to lead the way and Kamara is a key versatile performer for the Volunteers, scoring 10 times and accumulating 1,016 all-purpose yards.

TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl games.
* Volunteers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Under is 16-5 in Wildcats last 21 non-conference games.
* Over is 5-0 in Volunteers last five neutral site games.



BATTLEFROG FIESTA BOWL

(9) Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (-6.5, 57.5)

Game played at University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona

BATTLEFROG FIESTA BOWL STORYLINES

1. No. 7 Ohio State and No. 8 Notre Dame were each only a few plays away from clinching a spot in the College Football Playoff but instead will have to be content with a New Year’s Six Bowl when they square off in the BattleFrog Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, Ariz., on Jan. 1. The defending-champion Buckeyes were in the top four until a 17-14 home loss to Michigan State in the penultimate game of the regular season knocked them out of a spot in the Big Ten title game. The Fighting Irish spent a week in the top four as well but dropped after closing the campaign with a 38-36 setback at Stanford.

2. Notre Dame’s explosive offense averaged 34.8 points – 31st in the nation – despite making a change at quarterback and losing top rusher C.J. Prosise down the stretch. Prosise (ankle) could be back for the bowl game but will be going against an Ohio State defense that finished second in the nation while allowing opponents an average of 14 points. Buckeyes co-defensive coordinator Chris Ash is set to leave to take the head coaching job at Rutgers after the bowl game, but former NFL and college head coach Greg Schiano was brought in to ease the transition and will serve as the co-defensive coordinator moving forward.

3. The Fighting Irish and the Buckeyes both switched quarterbacks during the season, though Notre Dame’s change was injury related. Malik Zaire went down in the second game of the season at Virginia and sophomore DeShone Kizer stepped in to throw for 2,600 yards and 19 touchdowns while adding nine scores on the ground. Ohio State went back and forth between Cardale Jones and J.T. Barrett before settling on Barrett, who will get the starting nod in the Fiesta Bowl.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened Ohio State as a 6.5-point fave, but is now -6. The total is up to 57.5 from the opening 54.

WEATHER: N/A

ABOUT NOTRE DAME (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS, 6-6 O/U): The Fighting Irish suffered their two losses by a total of four points on the road at No. 1 Clemson and No. 6 Stanford. “Our scout teams have done a great job all year,” Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly told reporters. “We're going to lean on them again one more time to provide us with the kind of look necessary to prepare our defense. But no, we know the challenge that Ohio State brings, and we're going to have to do a great job of preparing our defense.” That defense allowed an average of 22.4 points in the regular season and was at its best against the pass, limiting opponents to 195.9 yards through the air.

ABOUT OHIO STATE (11-1 SU, 5-7 ATS, 3-9 O/U): Buckeyes running back Ezekiel Elliott ran for 1,672 yards and 19 touchdowns but was critical of his usage after logging just 33 yards on 12 carries in the lone loss to Michigan State. Elliott bounced back with 214 yards and two scores the following week and figures to be a big part of the offense in the bowl game. Elliott is one of several Ohio State stars, including Jones and presumptive top-5 pick defensive lineman Joey Bosa, who could be headed for the NFL draft in the spring.

TRENDS:

* Fighting Irish are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six vs. Big Ten.
* Buckeyes are 5-2 ATS in their last seven bowl games.
* Under is 4-1 in Fighting Irish last five neutral site games.
* Under is 5-1 in Buckeyes last six games overall.



Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl

(17) Michigan Wolverines vs. (18) Florida Gators (+4, 38.5)

Game played at Orlando Citrus Bowl, Orlando, Florida

BUFFALO WILD WINGS CITRUS BOWL

1. Florida coach Jim McElwain and Michigan counterpart Jim Harbaugh resurrected dormant programs in their first year on the sidelines and look to cap off encouraging campaigns with a victory when the Gators and Wolverines meet in the Citrus Bowl in Orlando, Fla., on Jan. 1. McElwain led Florida to the SEC Eastern Division title before losing 29-15 to College Football Playoff participant Alabama in the SEC championship game, while Harbaugh had Michigan in contention for the Big Ten East Division crown heading into the final week of the regular season. Defense has been the catalyst for the dramatic turnaround for both teams as the Gators rank eighth nationally in scoring defense (16.4 points per game) while the Wolverines are fourth in total defense (281.3 yards).

2. Florida's offense has sputtered without suspended quarterback Will Grier as the Gators were held to 17 points in their last two games, and couldn't manage an offensive score in the 27-2 setback to Florida State on Nov. 28. Michigan's Jake Rudock suffered a shoulder injury in the 42-13 loss to Ohio State, and it was initially feared that he would miss the bowl game, but the senior quarterback will make his final collegiate start on New Year's Day. Rudock struggled with the command of a new offense after transfering from Iowa before ending the season on a tear by throwing for 1,296 yards and 11 touchdowns in his last four games.

3. The Wolverines and Gators have meet twice previously in the postseason with Michigan emerging 38-30 victors in the 2003 Outback Bowl before downing Florida 41-35 in Lloyd Carr's final game as coach in the 2008 Capital One Bowl. The Gators last met a Big Ten team in 2012 when they beat Ohio State in the Gator Bowl and McElwain, who is one of six finalists for the Dodd Trophy - awarded to the top coach in the country - is keen to lead Florida to its third straight win over a Big Ten opponent. "We're here to win a ballgame," McElwain told reporters. "We aren't here just to go on rides."

TV: 1 p.m. ET, ABC.

LINE HISTORY: The Gators opened as 4-point dogs. The total is down to 38.5 from the opening 41.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the high-70s with a 27 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow across the field at around 4 mph.

ABOUT MICHIGAN (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS, 7-5 O/U): Jake Butt and Jourdan Lewis announced they will return for the senior seasons after the junior tight end caught 48 passes for 620 yards and three touchdowns, while the junior cornerback was ranked third nationally with 19 pass breakups. Safety Jabrill Peppers (two rushing touchdowns, eight receptions), who won the Big Ten Freshman of the Year award after making an impact as a three-way player, could miss the bowl game after suffering a suspected hand injury. "He's working through something," Harbaugh told reporters. "We'll see."

ABOUT FLORIDA (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS, 5-8 O/U): Starting quarterback Treon Harris has struggled to move the ball through the air and has failed to throw for 200 yards in each of his last three games. Vernon Hargreaves III, who is the Gators' first unanimous All-America pick since 2009, will likely play his last game as the junior cornerback is considered a surefire first-round pick in the 2015 NFL Draft. Defensive end Alex McCalister has been sidelined with a foot injury since Nov. 15 and will likely miss the game while wide receiver Brandon Powell is questionable because of a foot problem.

TRENDS:

* Wolverines are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games.
* Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games.
* Over is 7-0 in Wolverines last seven games overall.
* Under is 5-1 in Gators last six games overall.



ROSE BOWL GAME PRESENTED BY NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL

(6) Stanford Cardinal vs. (7) Iowa Hawkeyes (+6, 53)

Game played at Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California

ROSE BOWL GAME PRESENTED BY NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL STORYLINES

1. Two teams that barely missed out on a spot in the College Football Playoff meet Jan. 1 as Iowa takes on Stanford in the Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual in Pasadena, Calif. “If the Rose Bowl is the consolation prize, what a deal for both of us,” Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz told reporters. The Hawkeyes suffered their first loss with a 16-13 defeat to Michigan State in the Big Ten championship game, while Stanford earned its third Rose Bowl berth in the last four years with a 41-22 win over USC in the Pac-12 title game.

2. Iowa began the season unranked after finishing 7-6 a year ago but improved every week to earn its first trip to the Rose Bowl since 1991. The Big Ten West Division champions rely heavily on their run defense, which ranks 10th in the nation at fewer than 115 yards per game. The impressive unit will be tested by a powerful Stanford offensive attack led by sophomore running back Christian McCaffrey, who finished second in the Heisman Trophy race after breaking Barry Sanders' single-season all-purpose yards record with 3,496.

3. Stanford struggled in its only other meeting against a Big Ten opponent this season as the Cardinal scored their fewest points since 2007 and lost their opener 16-6 at Northwestern. Following that low point, however, coach David Shaw’s squad strung together eight straight wins before losing 38-36 to Oregon on Nov. 14. In addition to McCaffrey, the Cardinal boast a steady hand at quarterback in senior Kevin Hogan, who has thrown for 2,644 yards and 24 touchdowns against seven interceptions while completing 68.6 percent of his passes.

TV: 5 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened Iowa as a 6.5-point dog but is now +6. The total is at the opening number of 53.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low-60s under clear skies. Wind will blow toward the north end zone at around 6 mph.

ABOUT STANFORD (11-2 SU, 9-4 ATS, 7-6 O/U): The Hawkeyes can expect a heavy dose of McCaffrey, who rushed for 1,847 yards and eight touchdowns while adding 540 receiving yards and four more scores through the air. “He’s the best player in the nation," coach David Shaw told reporters after McCaffrey recorded 461 yards in total offense in the Pac-12 title game. “I don't know if that's even a question. There's nobody in the nation doing what he's been doing. It's not even a debate.” Linebacker Blake Martinez averages a Pac-12-high 10.2 tackles per game to lead the defense, which benefits from a Stanford offense that leads the nation in time of possession.

ABOUT IOWA (12-1 SU, 7-5-1 ATS, 7-5-1 O/U): For the Hawkeyes to win their school-record 13th game and their first Rose Bowl since beating Cal in 1959, they’ll need another solid outing from quarterback C.J. Beathard, who threw 15 touchdowns against three interceptions and rushed for six scores. Beathard could be without the services of leading rusher Jordan Canzeri, who ran for 12 touchdowns but left the Big Ten championship game with a sprained right ankle and is listed as questionable for the Rose Bowl. Iowa’s secondary is led by first team All-American Desmond King, who received the Jim Thorpe Award as the nation’s top defensive back after recording eight interceptions while averaging 25.6 yards per kickoff return and 12.7 yards on punts.

TRENDS:

* Cardinal are 5-1 ATS in their last six bowl games.
* Hawkeyes are 5-2 ATS in their last seven bowl games.
* Over is 8-3 in Cardinal last 11 games following a straight up win.
* Under is 8-2 in Hawkeyes last 10 neutral site games.



Allstate Sugar Bowl

Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Ole Miss Rebels (-7.5, 67.5)

Game played at Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana

ALLSTATE SUGAR BOWL STORYLINES

1. After a humbling defeat a year ago in the postseason, Ole Miss looks to make amends when it takes on Oklahoma State in the Allstate Sugar Bowl Jan. 1 in New Orleans. The Rebels absorbed a 42-3 loss in last season’s Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl against TCU and now must contend with another talented team from the Big 12. The Cowboys started 10-0 and had hopes of reaching the College Football Playoff before ending the regular season with back-to-back losses.

2. Ole Miss junior defensive lineman Robert Nkemdiche - the team’s best defensive player - fell 15 feet twice from a window in mid-December and had to be hospitalized. The team announced Dec. 20 that Nkemdiche, who was charged with misdemeanor marijuana possession following the incident, will be suspended for the bowl game. "I have learned a valuable lesson in the last week, and I look forward to showing NFL personnel that this is not representative of my true character," said Nkemdiche, who announced he will enter the NFL draft, where he likely will be a top-10 pick. "I want to thank my coaches, my teammates and Rebel Nation for their support these past three years, and I look forward to making them proud for years to come."

3. Oklahoma State has some injury issues of its own with quarterback Mason Rudolph employing a walking boot on his right foot with the bowl game less than two weeks away. Still, coach Mike Gundy seems to be unconcerned about the status of Rudolph and two of his weapons, tight end Blake Jarwin (ribs) and fullback Jeremy Seaton (undisclosed). Rudolph led the Big 12 with 57 passes of 20 yards or more and finished his sophomore regular season with 3,591 passing yards, 21 touchdowns and nine interceptions.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened Ole Miss as a 6.5-point fave but is now -7.5. the total is up a half-point from the opening 67.

WEATHER: N/A

ABOUT OKLAHOMA STATE (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS, 8-4 O/U): The Cowboys rank in the top 10 nationally in passing yards (seventh) and points per game (ninth). They have tons of weapons on offense, but sophomore wide receiver James Washington (52 catches, 1,077 yards, 10 touchdowns) is the best of the bunch. Oklahoma State’s running game is relatively mediocre with only Chris Carson (504 yards) having amassed more than 300 and the team averaging just 3.7 yards per carry.

ABOUT OLE MISS (9-3 7-5 ATS, 4-8 O/U): The Rebels’ offense is centered around dynamic receiver Laquon Treadwell (76 catches, 1,082 yards, eight TDs), who had found the end zone in six straight games prior to a quiet day against Mississippi State to end the regular season. Chad Kelly threw 27 touchdowns during the year, including three in a signature win against Alabama back in September. A one-point overtime loss to a strong Arkansas team is the only thing separating Ole Miss from entering the postseason on a five-game winning streak.

TRENDS:

* Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games.
* Rebels are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.
* Over is 6-0 in Cowboys last six games overall.
* Under is 5-1 in Rebels last six neutral site games.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Outback Bowl, Tampa, January 1
Tennessee is 7-5 this year, despite blowing double digit leads in two home losses; both teams here won last five games. Last six years, SEC bowl favorites are 27-16-1 vs spread. SEC teams are 4-2 vs Big 14 teams in this bowl last six years; under is 3-0-1 in last four. Northwestern lost consecutive games 38-0/40-10 after a 5-0 start; they're 6-2 vs bowl teams. Vols are 2-4 vs bowl teams. Jones is 2-2 in bowls, winning 45-28 LY in his first bowl with Tennessee. Fitzgerald is 1-4 SU in bowls but covered four of the five games; that bowl win is only one in school history.

Citrus Bowl, Orlando
Michigan allowed 16 or less points in seven of nine wins; they are 2-3 allowing more than 16. Harbaugh split two bowls when he was at Stanford. Florida was outscored 56-17 in losing last two games after 10-1 start; they gained 262 or less TY in last three tilts. SEC teams beat Big 14 in this bowl the last five years, covering four of them; last three went over total. Michigan lost thee of its last four bowls; favorites were 3-0-1 vs spread in those games. Florida won four of last five bowls; McElwain won his only bowl at Colorado State. Florida OC Nussmeier had same job at Michigan LY.

Fiesta Bowl, Glendale AZ
Ohio State allowed 17 or less points in its last six games, losing to Michigan State on last play; Buckeyes won national title LY but had QB issues this year- they threw for total of 159 yards in last two games. Notre Dame is 3-2 in its last five bowls, despite being underdog in four of five; Kelly is 5-3 overall in bowls. Ohio State is 3-2 in last five bowl games; underdogs won last three SU. Dogs covered this bowl three of last four years; over is 3-1-1 in last five Fiesta Bowls. Meyer is 9-2 in bowl games, winning 2 of 3 at OSU. Irish covered five of six vs bowl teams TY, is 3-0 as an underdog.

Rose Bowl, Pasadena
Stanford is 3-2 in last five bowls, splitting pair here; this is third Rose Bowl in last four years for Cardinal. Iowa is in Rose Bowl for first time in 25 years; they lost last three bowls by 17-7-17 points. Hawkeyes are expected to have big crowd edge here. Cardinal is 11-1 in last 12 games, scoring 30+ in all 12, after 16-6 openng loss at Northwestern. Stanford beat USC twice, UCLA, Notre Dame, Cal, Wazzu, lost to Oregon by 2- their schedule was much harder than Iowa's. Pac-12 teams won this bowl four of last five years; three of last four went over total.

Sugar Bowl, New Orleans
Last seven years, SEC teams are 10-2 in bowls vs Big X squads; last three Sugar Bowls were won by underdogs of 8-14-15 points- five of last six went over total. Oklahoma State was 10-0, then lost last two games, allowing 103 points; QB Rudolph was banged-up and that limited their offense. Cowboys won four of last five bowl games, scoring 39.2 ppg. Ole Miss is 5-3 vs bowl teams this year; they lost 42-3 in bowl LY after winning previous six bowls- they allowed 300+ passing yards in three of last four games, 427+ TY in four of last six. Ole Miss QB Kelly is Jim Kelly's nephew.

[Udog]

Best (and worst) bets of 2015

Another year down has flown by so it's time to take a look at which teams were the best and worst bets in the calendar year.

Best and Worst of the NFL in 2015

** NFL numbers from 2015 regular season through Week 16.

Top 5 NFL ATS teams

1. Cincinnati Bengals (12-2-1 ATS)

2. Minnesota Vikings (12-3 ATS)

3. Carolina Panthers (10-5 ATS)

4. Arizona Cardinals (9-6 ATS)

5. Green Bay Packers (9-6 ATS)

Bottom 5 NFL ATS teams

1. Miami Dolphins (4-11 ATS)

2. Tennessee Titans (4-10-1 ATS)

3. Dallas Cowboys (4-10-1 ATS)

4. Baltimore Ravens (4-9-2 ATS)

5. San Francisco 49ers (6-9 ATS)

Top 5 NFL Over teams

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-5 O/U)

2. New York Giants (10-5 O/U)

3. Carolina Panthers (9-5-1 O/U)

4. New Orleans Saints (9-5-1 O/U)

5. Arizona Cardinals (9-6 O/U)

Top 5 NFL Under teams

1. Atlanta Falcons (2-12-1 O/U)

2. St. Louis Cardinals (4-11 O/U)

3. Minnesota Vikings (4-10-1 O/U)

4. San Diego Chargers (5-10 O/U)

5. Green Bay Packers/Dallas Cowboys (5-10 O/U)


Best and worst of college football in 2015

* College football numbers from 2015 regular season.

Top 5 college football ATS teams

1. South Florida Bulls (9-2-1 ATS)

2. Toledo Rockets (8-2-1 ATS)

3. Bowling Green Falcons (10-3 ATS)

4. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (10-3 ATS)

5. Central Michigan Chippewas (9-3 ATS)

5. Oklahoma Sooners (9-3 ATS)

5. Washington State Cougars (9-3 ATS)

Bottom 5 college football ATS teams

1. Central Florida Knights (2-10 ATS)

2. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (3-10 ATS)

3. Texas State Bobcats (3-9 ATS)

3. Oregon State Beavers (3-9 ATS)

3. Missouri Tigers (3-9 ATS)

3. Kentucky Wildcats (3-9 ATS)

3. Kent State Golden Flashes (3-9 ATS)

3. Kansas Jayhawks (3-9 ATS)

3. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (3-9 ATS)

3. Auburn Tigers (3-9 ATS)

4. Charlotte 49ers (2-7-2 ATS)

5. Old Dominion Monarchs (3-8-1 ATS)

Top 5 college football Over teams

1. New Mexico State Aggies (10-2 O/U)

2. Syracuse Orange (10-2 O/U)

3. Indiana Hoosiers (9-2-1 O/U)

4. Arizona Wildcats (9-3 O/U)

4. Arkansas State Red Wolves (9-3 O/U)

4. Eastern Michigan Eagles (9-3 O/U)

4. Fresno State Bulldogs (9-3 O/U)

4. Idaho Vandals (9-3 O/U)

4. Texas Tech Red Raiders (9-3 O/U)

4. UNLV Rebels (9-3 O/U)

4. Utah State Aggies (9-3 O/U)

5. Air Force Falcons (9-4 O/U)

5. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (9-4 O/U)

Top 5 college football Under teams

1. Missouri Tigers (1-11 O/U)

2. Vanderbilt Commodores (1-10-1 O/U)

3. Connecticut Huskies (2-10 O/U)

4. Boston College Eagles (2-10 O/U)

5. Western Virginia Mountaineers (3-9 O/U)

5. Ohio State Buckeyes (3-9 O/U)

5. Georgia Bulldogs (3-9 O/U)


Best and worst of MLB 2015

* MLB numbers from regular season only.

Top 5 MLB moneyline teams

1. Texas Rangers (88-74) +$2955

2. St. Louis Cardinals (100-62) +$2247

3. Pittsburgh Pirates (98-64) +$2135

4. Minnesota Twins (83-79) +$2029

5. Kansas City Royals (95-67) +$1944

Bottom 5 MLB moneyline teams

1. Cincinnati Reds (64-98) -$3110

2. Oakland A's (68-94) -$2942

3. Milwaukee Brewers (68-94) -$2081

4. Seattle mariners (76-86) -$2056

5. San Diego Padres (74-88) -$1925

Top 5 MLB Over teams

1. San Diego Padres (93-62-7 O/U)

2. Philadelphia Philles (86-64-12 O/U)

3. Oakland A's (86-66-10 O/U)

4. Detroit Tigers (85-68-8 O/U)

5. New York Mets (84-72-6 O/U)

Top 5 MLB Under teams

1. St. Louis Cardinals (66-85-11 O/U)

2. Chicago Cubs (71-81-10 O/U)

3. Texas Rangers (72-80-10 O/U)

4. Minnesota Twins (72-78-12 O/U)

5. Baltimore Orioles (73-80-9 O/U)

Top 5 MLB starting pitcher money stats

1. Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs (Team 25-8) +$1372

2. Carlos Martinez, St. Louis Cardinals (Team 22-7) +$1129

3. Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates (Team 23-9) +$1043

4. Carlos Rodon, Chicago White Sox (Team 15-8) +$1013

5. Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros (Team 23-10) +$973

Bottom 5 MLB starting pitcher money stats

1. Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians (Team 11-21) -$1747

2. Jesse Chavez, Oakland A's (Team 8-18) -$1147

3. Shelby Miller, Atlanta Braves (Team 11-22) -$1062

4. Lance McCullers, Houston Astros (Team 8-14) -$979

5. Johnny Cueto, Kansas City Royals (Team 4-9) -$934

Top 5 MLB homer umpires (minimum 10 games behind home plate)

1. Jim Reynolds (home team 26-6)

2. Clint Fagan (home team 23-8)

3. Jerry Meals (home team 23-9)

4. Sam Holbrook (home team 18-8)

5. Bill Welke (home team 19-9)

Top 5 MLB Over umpires (minimum 10 games behind home plate)

1. Dana Demuth (18-7 O/U)

2. Dale Scott (18-8 O/U)

3. Bob Davidson (20-10 O/U)

4. Lazaro Diaz (19-10 O/U)

5. Joe West (22-12 O/U)

Top 5 MLB Under umpires (minimum 10 games behind home plate)

1. Toby Basner (4-14 O/U)

2. John Tumpane (8-18 O/U)

3. Greg Gibson (10-17 O/U)

4. Ben May (8-13 O/U)

5. Mark Ripperger (10-16 O/U)


Best and worst of the NBA 2015

* NBA numbers from 2014-15 and 2015-16 regular seasons only.

Top 5 NBA ATS teams

1. Boston Celtics (53-29-2 ATS)

2. San Antonio Spurs (48-31-2 ATS)

3. Detroit Pistons (48-33-1 ATS)

4. Golden State Warriors (47-33-2 ATS)

5. Atlanta Hawks (46-35-3 ATS)

Bottom 5 NBA ATS teams

1. Los Angeles Lakers (33-46-3 ATS)

2. Sacramento Kings (34-46-1 ATS)

3. Washington Wizards (34-43-3 ATS)

4. Chicago Bulls (35-44 ATS)

5. Miami Heat (35-40-4 ATS)

Top 5 NBA Over teams

1. Golden State Warriors (44-38 O/U)

2. Minnesota Timberwolves (44-38-1 O/U)

3. Portland Trail Blazers (42-39-1 O/U)

4. Houston Rockets (42-41 O/U)

5. Washington Wizards (41-36-3 O/U)

Top 5 NBA Under teams

1. Memphis Grizzlies (32-51-1 O/U)

2. Miami Heat (31-48 O/U)

3. Utah Jazz (32-47 O/U)

4. Phoenix Suns (32-47-2 O/U)

5. Cleveland Cavs (34-45 O/U)


Best and worst from college basketball 2015

Top 5 college basketball ATS teams

1. Arizona Wildcats (24-14 ATS)

2. Villanova Wildcats (22-11-1 ATS)

3. Duke Blue Devils (22-15-1 ATS)

4. Michigan State Spartans (22-15 ATS)

5. IUPUI-Ft. Wayne Mastadons (21-7 ATS)

Bottom 5 college basketball ATS teams

1. Saint Louis Billikens (7-19 ATS)

2. Arkansas St. Red Wolves (7-18 ATS)

3. Charleston Cougars (7-18-1 ATS)

4. Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-21 ATS)

5. Ball St. Cardinals (8-18 ATS)


Best and worst of the NHL in 2015

Top 5 NHL puckline teams

1. Colorado Avalanche (50-32)

2. Edmonton Oilers (49-32)

3. Florida Panthers (49-34)

4. Dallas Stars (48-35)

5. Buffalo Sabres (48-32)

Bottom 5 NHL puckline teams

1. Los Angeles Kings (28-51)

2. Chicago Blackhawks (29-53)

3. Boston Bruins (31-48)

4. Nashville Predators (32-50)

5. Anaheim Ducks (32-45)

Top 5 NHL straight up records

1. Washington Capitals (54-27)

2. New York Rangers (53-41)

3. St. Louis Blues (51-32)

4. Dallas Stars (52-32)

5. Minnesota Wild (48-34)

Bottom 5 NHL straight up records

1. Toronto Maple Leafs (22-56)

2. Buffalo Sabres (24-56)

3. Arizona Coyotes (27-53)

4. Edmonton Oilers (31-50)

5. Philadelphia Flyers (34-46)

Top 5 NHL Over teams

1. San Jose Sharks (45-28-6 O/U)

2. Edmonton Oilers (45-34-2 O/U)

3. Dallas Stars (45-38 O/U)

4. Columbus Blue Jackets (44-36-5 O/U)

5. Winnipeg Jets (41-35-3 O/U)

Top 5 NHL Under teams

1. New York Islanders (31-45-5 O/U)

2. Pittsburgh Penguins (27-44-9 O/U)

3. Philadelphia Flyers (25-44-11 O/U)

4. Chicago Blackhawks (27-42-13 O/U)

5. Toronto Maple Leafs (31-42-5 O/U)

[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, January 2

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Day: Saturday's college football bowl games
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Oregon Ducks finished the season with six-straight wins and covered the spread in five of those games.


Taxslayer Bowl

Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Georgia Bulldogs (-6, 42.5)

Game played at EverBank Field, Jacksonville, Florida

TAXSLAYER BOWL STORYLINES

1. For the first time since 2000, Georgia will take the field without Mark Richt patrolling the sidelines when the Bulldogs face Penn State in the TaxSlayer Bowl on Jan. 2 in Jacksonville, Fla. Interim head coach Bryan McClendon will direct the Bulldogs in the bowl game before Kirby Smart takes over at his alma mater, after Georgia fired Richt on Nov. 29. Preparations for the Bulldogs’ 19th consecutive bowl appearance have been different for a program accustomed to continuity, as most of the coaching staff is not expected to return for 2016.

2. The Nittany Lions have struggled offensively the past two seasons, ranking 106th and 114th in the nation in total offense and leading to the firing of offensive coordinator John Donovan. New coordinator Joe Moorhead will not take over until after the bowl game, leaving head coach James Franklin and quarterbacks coach Ricky Rahne to build the game plan against a Georgia defense ranked ninth in the country in points allowed per game (16.9). Penn State, which has lost three in a row, will rely on freshman running back Saquon Barkley (1,007 yards rushing, seven touchdowns) and junior quarterback Christian Hackenberg (2,386 yards passing, 16 touchdowns) to generate offense, but the offensive line must play better after allowing 39 sacks in 12 games.

3. Like Penn State, Georgia’s offense has struggled – in particular after Heisman hopeful running back Nick Chubb suffered a season-ending knee injury in early October. Junior quarterback Greyson Lambert (1,844 yards passing, 11 touchdowns) battled inconsistency, leading the Bulldogs to rely more on a running game now led by sophomore Sony Michel (1,076 yards rushing, seven touchdowns). The Nittany Lions, paced by defensive end and Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Carl Nassib, lead the nation in sacks and are 14th in total defense (324.3 yards per game).

TV: Noon ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened Georgia as a 7-point fave, but that has moved to -6. The total is up to 42.5 from the opening 41.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low-60s under mostly cloudy skies. Wind will blow toward the south end zone at around six mph.

ABOUT PENN STATE (7-5 SU, 4-8 ATS, 5-7 O/U): Barkley provides some promise at running back, averaging 6.4 yards per carry while averaging 100.7 yards per game, but Hackenberg’s NFL prospects suffered as he completed 53.3 percent of his passes, throwing as many interceptions (three) as touchdowns in the past three games. Nassib led the nation with 15½ sacks and tied for the national lead with 19½ tackles for loss, but the Nittany Lions allowed 35.3 points per game in their final three contests. Middle linebacker Jason Cabinda moved from outside linebacker after a season-ending injury to Nyeem Wartman-White in Week 1 and excelled, leading Penn State in tackles (92).

ABOUT GEORGIA (9-3 SU, 5-7 ATS, 3-9 O/U): Lambert will start in the Bulldogs’ second appearance in Jacksonville this season; he did not play in the first game, a 27-3 blowout loss to Florida that many believe sealed Richt’s fate. Michel has been impressive in picking up the rushing load for Chubb, but Georgia’s defense has anchored the Bulldogs’ better play down the stretch. Jake Ganus, Leonard Floyd and Jordan Jenkins combined for 220 tackles and 9½ sacks while forming one of the best linebacker corps in the nation, and the Bulldogs held opponents to 10 points per game in winning their final four games.

TRENDS:

* Nittany Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
* Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a ATS win.
* Over is 4-1 in Nittany Lions last five games overall.
* Under is 6-0 in Bulldogs last six games overall.



Autozone Liberty Bowl

Kansas State Wildcats vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (-13, 55.5)

Game played at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, Memphis, Tennessee

AUTOZONE LIBERTY BOWL STORYLINES

1. A pair of major-conference schools that are no strangers to bowl games -- Arkansas and Kansas State -- face off in the Liberty Bowl in Memphis on Jan. 2. The Razorbacks are in their seventh bowl game in the last nine seasons, which includes a victory over the Wildcats in the 2012 Cotton Bowl, while Kansas State is in a bowl game for the sixth straight season. Coaches Bret Bielema and Bill Snyder have plenty of experience in bowl games as well, combining for 10 victories in their 23 bowl appearances as head coaches.

2. After a 2-4 start to the season, the Razorbacks came roaring back to finish the regular season at 7-5, with the lone loss being a 51-50 shootout to Mississippi State. The Wildcats, on the other hand, had to recover with wins in their last three games just to get to 6-6, with a five-game losing streak putting them in that hole. Arkansas will look to control the clock with its running game, which averages 192.6 yards, while Kansas State's run defense will try to slow down the Razorbacks after holding opponents to 159.4 yards on the ground.

3. The two coaches in the game, Snyder and Bielema, are more than familiar with each other, having coached together with the Wildcats in 2002 and 2003. Bielema served as Snyder's co-defensive coordinator those years before moving on to Wisconsin. Both have roots with Iowa as well, where Bielema was a player, graduate assistant and linebackers coach prior to joining Snyder's staff, and Snyder spent nine seasons from 1979 to 1988 as quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator.

TV: 3:20 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened Arkansas as a 12-point fave, but that has moved to -13. The total is down to 55.5 from the opening 59.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the high-40s under clear skies. Wind will blow across the field at around six mph.

ABOUT KANSAS STATE (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS, 7-5 O/U): As they head into the Liberty Bowl, the Wildcats are still unsure who will start under center, with Joe Hubener and Kody Cook both remaining options. Hubener has the gaudier stats, throwing for 1,837 yards and nine touchdowns to go with nine interceptions, while Cook, a receiver with 27 catches when he's not at quarterback, had 284 yards passing with three touchdowns and three interceptions. "We practice both of them there every single day," Snyder told reporters. "They take an equal amount of reps, which has been reasonably consistent throughout the latter stages of the season. Nothing changes there."

ABOUT ARKANSAS (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS, 5-7 O/U): If there's one player the Razorbacks want to get going in the bowl game, it's junior running back Alex Collins, who has been on a roll in the late part of the season. Collins had six 100-yard games in SEC action this year, equalling the school record, and his 17 touchdowns are tied for second-most in Arkansas single-season history. While the Wildcats will be keying on Collins to try to slow down the Razorbacks' ground attack, look for him to get the ball plenty early in the game to try to set up the rest of the Arkansas offense.

TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games.
* Razorbacks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. Big 12.
* Over is 7-3 in Wildcats last 10 games overall.
* Under is 7-0 in Razorbacks last seven Bowl games.



Valero Alamo Bowl

(14) Oregon Ducks vs. (10) TCU Horned Frogs (+7, 73.5)

Game played at Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas

VALERO ALAMO BOWL STORYLINES

1. Two high-octane offenses will be looking to put a bushel of points on the scoreboard when TCU - without suspended senior quarterback Trevone Boykin - faces Oregon in the Valero Alamo Bowl on Jan. 2 at San Antonio. The Horned Frogs average 41.7 points per game and scored 50 or more points on five occasions while Oregon checks in with a 43.2 average and four outings of over 50. The Ducks are shaky on defense - allowing 36.8 per contest - despite ending the regular season with six consecutive victories.

2. Boykin was suspended two days before the contest after being arrested outside a San Antonio bar and charged with assault on a public servant, a third-degree felony. Boykin, who passed for 3,575 yards and 31 touchdowns, allegedly fought employees of the bar as they attempted to get him to leave and could also face charges of resisting arrest and public intoxication. Either senior Bram Kohlhausen (369 yards, three touchdowns, one interception) or redshirt freshman Foster Sawyer (155 yards, two touchdowns, three interceptions) will start in Boykin's place.

3. Ducks sophomore running back Royce Freeman somehow flies under the national radar despite racking up 1,706 yards and 14 touchdowns. Freeman posted 10 100-yard rushing games this season and needs an even 100 yards to break the school's season-single rushing mark set by LaMichael James in 2011. "He's a guy that I think was very overshadowed, unfortunately, with kind of some early losses," Oregon coach Mark Helfrich told reporters. "He was out of any talk for individual awards and accolades. I know that doesn't mean a ton to him, but it's unfortunate for him."

TV: 6:45 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: TCU opened as a 1.5-point fave, but that moved to +7 following the Boykin suspension. The total is now 73.5 after originally opening at 78.

WEATHER: N/A

ABOUT OREGON (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS, 8-4 O/U): Senior quarterback Vernon Adams overcame an early season finger injury to pass for 2,446 yards and 25 touchdowns and the offense took off once he was healthy. Junior wideout Bralon Addison caught 58 passes for 775 yards and 10 touchdowns, while big-play sophomore Darren Carrington averaged 20.1 yards per catch and had five touchdowns in six games after returning from an NCAA suspension for failing a drug test prior to last season's College Football Playoff title game. Senior defensive end DeForest Buckner is the star of the defense with 16 tackles for losses (including 9.5 sacks) with senior linebacker Tyson Coleman (10 tackles for losses), senior inside linebacker Joe Walker (team-best 82 tackles) and sophomore strong safety Tyree Robinson (team-high three interceptions) also being key figures.

ABOUT TCU (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS, 5-7 O/U): Senior receiver Josh Doctson was enjoying the best receiving season in school history - 79 receptions for 1,327 yards and 14 touchdowns - before breaking his left wrist in early November. He was recently ruled out for the contest and his absence takes away more firepower from an offense that also has a strong running back in senior Aaron Green (1,171 yards, 10 touchdowns). The Horned Frogs allow 26.1 points per game and had to patch holes on defense most of the season due to injuries but have a couple of dependable standouts in senior free safety Derrick Kindred (79 tackles, team-best two interceptions) and junior defensive end Josh Carraway (team-leading eight sacks).

TRENDS:

* Ducks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Horned Frogs are 6-2 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.
* Under is 5-1 in Ducks last six Bowl games.
* Under is 8-0-1 in Horned Frogs last nine Bowl games.



Motel 6 Cactus Bowl

West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Arizona State Sun Devils (+1, 64.5)

Game played at Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona

MOTEL 6 CACTUS BOWL STORYLINES

1. A pair of prolific offenses square off in the Motel 6 Cactus Bowl when West Virginia travels to Phoenix to take on Arizona State on Jan. 2. Both teams rank in the top 30 nationally in total offense and in the top 50 in scoring, and both boast balanced attacks. Each team has scored 30 points or more in seven of its 12 games and topped 40 points four times.

2. West Virginia has recorded 23 interceptions among its 31 turnovers – both ranked second nationally – and has posted two or more takeaways eight times. With one more interception, the Mountaineers would match the school record set in 1948 and tied in 2000. Arizona State had a huge edge in turnover margin its first three years under coach Todd Graham but has 19 takeaways and 19 giveaways this season and has been outscored 68-49 in points off turnovers.

3. Arizona State leads the nation in sacks per game (3.67) and ranks fourth in tackles for loss (8.9 per game). When the Sun Devils don’t make a big play behind the line of scrimmage, though, they’re prone to giving up big plays. They’ve allowed at least 449 total yards in five straight games including a season-high 680 in a 48-46 loss at California in the regular-season finale.

TV: 10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened Arizona State as a 1.5-point fave but that has moved to +1. The total is down to 64.5 after opening at 66.

WEATHER: N/A

ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS, 3-9 O/U): The Mountaineers boast the dynamic offense coach Dana Holgorsen’s teams have come to be known for with quarterback Skyler Howard leading a balanced attack. Howard has passed for 2,613 yards with 21 touchdowns and 12 interceptions while adding 479 yards and six touchdowns on the ground to complement running back Wendell Smallwood (1,447 rushing yards, 9 TDs). The defense, led by All-Big 12 linebacker Nick Kwiatkoski, was torched for more than 600 yards in consecutive games against Baylor and TCU in October but played well down the stretch, holding its last three opponents to an average of 265.7 total yards and keeping all three under 100 yards rushing.

ABOUT ARIZONA STATE (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS, 5-7 O/U): Quarterback Mike Bercovici (3,437 yards, 26 TDs, 9 INTs) ranks in the top three in school history in most single-season passing categories and does a nice job of spreading the ball around with a trio of receivers with at least 50 receptions and 500 yards, including Devin Lucien (57 receptions, 931 yards, 7 TDs) and D.J. Foster (54 receptions, 544 yards, 3 TDs), who has caught at least one pass in a Pac-12 record 52 consecutive games. The Sun Devils can also move the ball on the ground, though, as Demario Richard (1,056 rushing yards, 7 TDs) has topped 100 yards rushing in seven straight games. If it comes down to the kicking game, the Sun Devils could have the edge with junior kicker Zane Gonzalez, who ranks second in school history for field goals (69) and points (370) and needs just 11 points to surpass Luis Zendejas’ school scoring record.

TRENDS:

* Mountaineers are 1-5 ATS in their last six bowl games.
* Sun Devils are 1-6 ATS in their last seven bowl games.
* Under is 17-4 in Mountaineers last 21 games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Sun Devils last five Bowl games.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Tax Slayer Bowl, Jackaonville, Jan 2
Last six years, SEC teams are 13-7 vs Big 14 teams in bowls, 2-1 in this year's games. Georgia is 2-3 in last five bowls, with losses by 5 or less points; they were fsvored in all five games. Penn State is 2-3 in last five bowls; they were dog in all five- Franklin is 3-1 in bowls, 1-0 here. Penn State lost its last three games after 7-2 start; Lions are 2-5 vs bowl teams this year. Georgia fired its coach after a 9-3 season; they allowed 17 or less points in 8 of 9 wins, are 0-3 when they allow more than 20 points. Dawgs are 2-3 vs teams in bowls- they averaged only 15.8 ppg in their last six games. SEC bowl favorites are 6-1 vs spread this season.

Liberty Bowl, Memphis
Kansas State lost four of last five bowls; favorites covered last four. Wildcats get to bowl despite losing six games in row, giving up average of 42.7 ppg in mid-part of season, before winning last three games to get to 6-6- they're 2-5 vs bowl teams. Razorbacks won three of last four bowls; Bielema is 3-4 in his bowl games, 1-0 with Hogs. Arkansas won five of its last six games after a 2-4 start that included a home loss to Toledo. SEC teams are 5-2 in bowls this year, 3-2 in this bowl last six years; under is 3-2-1 in last six Liberty Bowls. Last seven years, SEC teams are 10-2 in bowls vs Big X teams.

Alamo Bowl, San Antonio
TCU QB Boykin was arrested/suspended two nights ago after bar fight so they're screwed as far as a QB goes here. Frogs won first eight games, scoring 40+ seven times; once WR Doctson got hurt, they went 2-2, scoring less than 30 all four games. TCU won three of last four bowls; they allowd 16 ppg in last five. Oregon had four-bowl win streak snapped by Ohio State in national title game LY; they beat Texas 30-7 in this game in 2013. Favorites are 5-1 SU/ATS in this bowl the last six years; three of last four went over the total. Last six years, Pac-12 teams are 18-15-1 as favorites in bowl games.

Cactus Bowl, Phoenix
Arizona State is first Pac-12 bowl underdog since 2012; they're the home team here too, playing in Diamondbacks' park in downtown Phoenix; ASU is 2-3 in last five bowls, with average total of 76.2. West Virginia lost four of last five bowls; one win was 70-33 over Clemson three years ago. Underdogs won/covered this bowl four of last six years, with last four staying under total. ASU lost four of last six games, allowing 34+ points in five of the six; they're 4-6 vs bowl teams this year. Last four years, Big X teams are 10-15 in bowl games, 1-2 this season.