Announcement

**Udog** · 12-09-2015, 10:35 PM

NFL Week 14 betting odds coming down hard on patchwork Patriots

“The Patriots didn’t deserve to drop their last two games, especially this week, but they could lose a legit one here." - John Lester, Bookmaker.eu.

As Week 14 dawns in the NFL, the seemingly impervious New England Patriots suddenly look, well, pervious. The Pats got out to a 10-0 SU start, then were a 2.5-point favorite against a backup quarterback at Denver two weekends ago and lost outright, 30-24 in overtime.

Sunday’s result, though, was much more surprising. New England (10-2 SU, 5-5-2 ATS) went off as 9.5-point home chalk against underwhelming Philadelphia, gave up 28 straight points after taking a 14-0 lead, and lost 35-28.

Now, the banged-up Patriots have their second Sunday night road game in three weeks, traveling to face a Houston team desperate to stay in the playoff hunt. The Texans (6-6 SU and ATS) had their four-game SU and ATS win streak iced in Buffalo Sunday, losing 30-21 as 3-point underdogs.

John Lester, senior lines manager at Bookmaker.eu, sent New England out as a field-goal favorite.

“The Patriots didn’t deserve to drop their last two games, especially this week, but they could lose a legit one here,” Lester said. “Most people are going to scratch their heads at this line, but if we hang New England any higher, the sharps would hammer Houston. This is going to be a great Sunday night matchup.”

Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals (-7)

After surprisingly rising to the top of the NFC North, Minnesota (8-4 SU, 9-3 ATS) has cooled off with two losses – both at home – in its last three games. That includes Sunday’s beatdown at the hands of two-time defending NFC champion Seattle, which dealt the 2.5-point underdog Vikings a 38-7 loss.

On the flip side, Arizona (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS) is riding a six-game SU winning streak (3-3 ATS). The Cardinals, 3.5-point faves at St. Louis Sunday, rolled to a 27-3 victory.

“The Cardinals have the personnel in the secondary to employ exactly the same game plan the Seahawks did against Minnesota in Week 13,” Lester said. “We felt comfortable opening this spread at a touchdown, and the early money came in on Arizona. There’s no doubt the Cards are a head above where the improving Vikings are, and Arizona is very dangerous at home.”

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)

The Bengals used weak foes to regain their form, after a pair of losses following their 8-0 SU start. Cincinnati (10-2 SU) ripped host St. Louis in Week 12, then drubbed Cleveland Sunday 37-3 giving 7.5 points at home, and the Bengals now lead the league with a 10-1-1 ATS record.

Pittsburgh also had a huge offensive outburst in the Sunday night contest. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger had no ill effects from a concussion suffered a week earlier, as the Steelers (7-5 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) drubbed Indianapolis 45-10 giving 10 points at home.

But with the game on Sunday night, Lester said he’d hold off on the line.

“If the Steelers come through Sunday night relatively healthy, we’ll look to make Cincinnati around a 3-point favorite,” he said. “The Bengals have been absolutely steam-rolling weak competition of late, but this should be an old-fashioned AFC North battle.”

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (N/A)

Green Bay got easily the most stunning victory of Week 13, converting a Hail Mary on an untimed down, due to penalty as time expired in Thursday’s game at Detroit. The Packers (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) won 27-23 as 2.5-point road faves to end a 1-4 SU and ATS slide.

Dallas, amazingly enough, remains in the hunt in the dismal NFC East. But the Cowboys (3-8 SU and ATS) still have Week 13 work left to do, playing at Washington in the Monday night contest, and they won’t have QB Tony Romo (collarbone, again) the rest of the season. So Matt Cassel will take the helm.

“If the Cowboys pull out a win Monday night, there will be plenty of public bettors predicting they will make the playoffs. So Monday’s game will somewhat dictate how we set this line,” Lester said. “Green Bay has looked like a shell of its former self, and Dallas has a defense that can disrupt Aaron Rodgers and Co. Of course, you’ve got a bit of a revenge angle for the Cowboys too.”

That would be due to Dallas’ controversial 26-21 playoff loss at Green Bay last January.

Don't miss the best betting value with these NFL Week 14 odds

The Panthers are making the 1972 Dolphins nervous and aren't get much respect from oddsmakers against the flightless Falcons in Week 14.

Spread to bet now

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-7.5)

Isn’t this about the time that the cranky old 1972 Dolphins of Mercury Morris and Don Shula start to worry? Carolina is four wins away from an undefeated regular season, which would match New England’s 2007 mark and begin speculation about besting the Fins’ run-the-table season 43 years ago.

First up is offense-starved Atlanta, which averaged better than 32 points in winning its first five games but in its last seven (1-6) has not scored more than 21 as its season has come crashing down. The Falcons have gone more than two months (Oct. 4) without covering a spread, and aren’t getting much love from early bettors in this one – even with the half point. Unless Cam Newton is lying and really is concussed, this line stays put.

Spread to wait on

Detroit Lions at St. Louis Rams (-1)

This basically a pick’em game anyway, but with significant early money down on the Lions, the Rams might not have to give even the one by the time this one kicks off. There’s not much in the way of motivation for either team (both are 4-8 and just about out of playoff contention), but by the time this one kicks off Detroit will have had several things going its way.

The Lions are on a few extra days of rest after playing on Thursday (Dec. 3) as well as decent momentum despite losing on the Aaron Rodgers Hail Mary. The Lions had won three in a row prior, including a mid-November win in Green Bay. St. Louis goes in with five straight SU losses (0-4-1 ATS). Number could easily slide to pick’em.

Total to watch

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (51)

Quietly and away from the Jameis Winston spotlight, the Buccaneers have strung together a month of decent defensive efforts. In games against Dallas, Philadelphia, Indianapolis an Atlanta, the Bucs have given up an average of fewer than 17 points a game in pulling to 6-6 and remaining on the fringes of a playoff spot. The Saints (7-4-1 on the over this season) will provide a good barometer for Tampa Bay’s defense.

**Udog** · 12-09-2015, 10:36 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Thursday, December 10

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MINNESOTA (8 - 4) at ARIZONA (10 - 2) - 12/10/2015, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Sunday, December 13

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PITTSBURGH (7 - 5) at CINCINNATI (10 - 2) - 12/13/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games this season.
CINCINNATI is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
CINCINNATI is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
CINCINNATI is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.
CINCINNATI is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CINCINNATI is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games played on turf this season.
PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-2 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-2 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (6 - 6) at PHILADELPHIA (5 - 7) - 12/13/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (6 - 6) at CAROLINA (12 - 0) - 12/13/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 70-46 ATS (+19.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CAROLINA is 53-30 ATS (+20.0 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 8) at CLEVELAND (2 - 10) - 12/13/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 23-40 ATS (-21.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (5 - 7) at CHICAGO (5 - 7) - 12/13/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 1-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (4 - 8) at ST LOUIS (4 - 8) - 12/13/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 59-84 ATS (-33.4 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
DETROIT is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) in road games against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
DETROIT is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 147-187 ATS (-58.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 147-187 ATS (-58.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 105-147 ATS (-56.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 114-149 ATS (-49.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN DIEGO (3 - 9) at KANSAS CITY (7 - 5) - 12/13/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 89-63 ATS (+19.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 4-1 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 3-2 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (4 - 8) at TAMPA BAY (6 - 6) - 12/13/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 4-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (6 - 6) at JACKSONVILLE (4 - 8) - 12/13/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-1 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 5-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (3 - 9) at NY JETS (7 - 5) - 12/13/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 1-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (10 - 2) at HOUSTON (6 - 6) - 12/13/2015, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 170-130 ATS (+27.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 54-34 ATS (+16.6 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (5 - 7) at DENVER (10 - 2) - 12/13/2015, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 29-55 ATS (-31.5 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 28-52 ATS (-29.2 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
DENVER is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
DENVER is 24-41 ATS (-21.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 4-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 5-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (4 - 8) at GREEN BAY (8 - 4) - 12/13/2015, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 2-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (7 - 5) at BALTIMORE (4 - 8) - 12/13/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, December 14

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NY GIANTS (5 - 7) at MIAMI (5 - 7) - 12/14/2015, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
MIAMI is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
MIAMI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 29-49 ATS (-24.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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**Udog** · 12-09-2015, 10:37 PM

NFL

Week 14

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Trend Report
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Thursday, December 10

8:25 PM
MINNESOTA vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Minnesota is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games at home
Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Sunday, December 13

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. NY JETS
Tennessee is 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
Tennessee is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games on the road
NY Jets are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of the NY Jets last 8 games

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. ST. LOUIS
Detroit is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis
Detroit is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games
St. Louis is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Detroit
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. TAMPA BAY
New Orleans is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. CHICAGO
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chicago's last 10 games

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. KANSAS CITY
San Diego is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 games
San Diego is 6-11-1 ATS in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home
Kansas City is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against San Diego

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. PHILADELPHIA
Buffalo is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games
Philadelphia is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
Philadelphia is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Buffalo

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Seattle is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Baltimore is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Seattle

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games
San Francisco is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Indianapolis's last 9 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. CAROLINA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Carolina's last 20 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

4:05 PM
OAKLAND vs. DENVER
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Oakland's last 15 games
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing at home against Oakland
Denver is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games

4:25 PM
DALLAS vs. GREEN BAY
Dallas is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games
Dallas is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
Green Bay is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Green Bay is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games

8:30 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. HOUSTON
New England is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing New England
Houston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing New England

Monday, December 14

8:30 PM
NY GIANTS vs. MIAMI
NY Giants are 8-17 SU in their last 25 games on the road
NY Giants are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games

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**Udog** · 12-09-2015, 10:37 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 14

Thursday's game
Vikings (8-4) @ Cardinals (10-2)-- Minnesota lost two of last three games after winning 5 in row before that; Vikings are 4-2 SU on road, 4-0 vs spread when a dog. Arizona is 4-1 at home, 2-3 as home favorite- they're 40 for last 74 on third down. Cardinals have three-game lead in NFC West; Vikings are tied with Packers atop NFC North. Arizona held five of last six opponents under 100 yards rushing; Vikings scored 9.8 ppg this year when running for less than 100 yards. Minnesota is 10-2 in last 12 series games, winning last three by 3-24-7 points; Vikings' last visit here was '09. NFC North non-divisional road underdogs are 7-3 vs spread; NFC West home favorites are 4-5. Four of five Arizona home games went over the total; under is 3-1-1 in last five Viking games.

**Udog** · 12-09-2015, 10:41 PM

NFL

Thursday, December 10

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Thursday Night Football Betting Preview: Vikings at Cardinals
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The Cardinals will try to win their seventh consecutive game by doing what divsion rival Seattle did last week and beat the Vikings.

Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals (-7.5, 46)

Coming off their worst loss of the season, the Minnesota Vikings hope to have better success against another NFC West opponent when they visit the surging Arizona Cardinals on Thursday night. The Vikings absorbed a 38-7 shellacking by visiting Seattle on Sunday and now must contend with the Cardinals, who have ripped off six consecutive victories.

Running back Adrian Peterson created a stir when he said the Vikings were outplayed and "outcoached" in the drubbing by the Seahawks, but he defended his remarks Tuesday. "We are a team. We win together, and we lose together," Peterson said. "And we lost together. We didn't play well as players and the coaches didn't coach well." The Cardinals breezed to a 27-3 victory at St. Louis on Sunday to improve to 10-2 for the first time since 1948. Arizona holds a three-game lead over Seattle atop the NFC West and a two-game advantage for the No. 2 seed in the conference.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The Cardinals opened favored by 7.5-points and have not moved from the opening number so far. The total has been bet up slightly from 45 to 46. Check out the complete line history here.

INJURY REPORT:

Vikings - S R. Blanton (questionable Thursday, knee), S A. Sendejo (questionable Thursday, knee), C J. Sullivan (questionable Thursday, back) DT L. Joseph (out Thursday, foot), LB A. Barr (out Thursday, groin), S H. Smith (out Thursday, hamstring), S A. Exum (I-R, ribs).

Cardinals - S R. Johnson (probable Thursday, ankle), RB S. Taylor (probable Thursday, shoulder), LS M. Leach (probable Thursday, knee), WR M. Floyd (questionable Thursday, ankle), S T. Jefferson (questionable Thursday, hamstring), DE C. Redding (questionable Thursday, ankle), DE F. Rucker (doubtful Thursday, ankle), CB J. Powers (doubtful Thursday, calf), RB A. Ellington (out Thursday, toe), TE J. Gresham (out Thursday, knee), G E. Walford (I-R, hand).

POWER RANKINGS: Vikings (-0.5) - Cardinals (-5.5) + home field (-3) = Cardinals -8

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Vikings have gone over the total in only two of their 12 games this season and those were by 2 and 2.5 points each. They have also stayed under the total in nine of 12 games when playing off a loss under Mike Zimmer. No surprise to see more of the same this evening."

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (8-4, 9-3 ATS, 2-9-1 O/U): Peterson, who leads the NFL with 1,182 rushing yards, was unhappy after receiving only eight carries for 18 yards against Seattle, so Minnesota figures to feed him early and often to keep Arizona's top-ranked offense off the field. Second-year quarterback Teddy Bridgewater threw for a season-low 118 yards in Sunday's loss and has only three touchdowns against four interceptions in his last six games. Minnesota's defense had held nine opponents to 20 points or fewer but has surrendered at least 30 in two of the last three contests.

ABOUT THE CARDINALS (10-2, 7-5 ATS, 8-4 O/U): Arizona is averaging a league-best 31.8 points behind quarterback Carson Palmer, who ranks second in the NFL with 29 touchdown passes and has thrown for 3,693 yards. Veteran Larry Fitzgerald became the youngest player to reach 1,000 career receptions on Sunday, while fellow wide receivers Michael Floyd and John Brown each went over 100 yards. With running backs Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington injured in a Week 12 victory at San Francisco, rookie David Johnson filled the void by rushing for 99 yards and catching a TD pass in his first NFL start.

TRENDS:

* Vikings are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.
* Cardinals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in December.
* Under is 8-2 in Vikings last 10 games versus the NFC.
* Over is 5-1 in Cardinals last six home games.

CONSENSUS: Bettors think the Vikings will bounce back this week, with 56 percent of wagers on Minnesota. As for the total market, 55 percent of bettors are on the over.

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**Udog** · 12-09-2015, 10:48 PM

Week 14 weather that could affect your bets

We look ahead to the weather forecast for Week 14 in the NFL and it looks like it will be a messy one.

With potential inclement weather in several stadiums this Sunday, we break down the forecast that could affect your bets. So check it out before placing your NFL wagers.

Washington at Chicago Bears (-3.5, OFF)

It could get very slick and muddy at Solider Field, with an 80 percent chance of rain at gametime and there is even a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast.

Temperatures will be in the mid 50's and there will be a 12-15 mile per hour wind gusting towards the northern endzone.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 49.5)

This important AFC North showdown could be a wet one, with a 59 percent chance of rain in the forecast for kickoff.

There will also be a 11-13 mile per hour wind gusting towards the northern most corner of the northern end zone. Temperatures will be in the high 50's for this one.

San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns (-1.5, 41)

Just down the highway in Cleveland, there is more win and rain in the forecast.

The chance of rain isn't as great at 36 percent at gametime, but the wind will be just as strong, gusting at 12-15 miles per hour across the field from south to north, with temperatures in the low 60's.

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 45)

It feels like the wet weather just keeps sticking around Kansas City, as there is a 60-80 percent chance of rain at Arrowhead Sunday. It will be a cold rain too, with temperatures in the low 40's.

There will also be a 9-10 mile per hour wind gusting towards the southeast end zone.

Tennessee Titans at New York Jets (-7.5, 43)

There is just a slight 27 percent chance of rain at MetLife Stadium with temperatures in the high 50's.

There will be a minimal 3-5 mile per hour wind blowing towards the northern end zone.

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-7.5, OFF)

The tundra at Lambeau Field isn't frozen just yet, but it's getting there and this week it will more than likely be wet, with a 67 percent chance of rain in the forecast.

Temperatures will be in the high 30's with a chilly 0-12 mile per hour wind blowing across the field from east to west.

**Udog** · 12-10-2015, 08:15 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 14

Minnesota @ Arizona

Game 101-102
December 10, 2015 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
132.067
Arizona
137.588
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 5 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 9
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(+9); Under

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 14

Thursday - Dec, 10

Minnesota at Arizona, 8:25 ET
Minnesota: 17-6 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses
Arizona: 9-21 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games

**Udog** · 12-10-2015, 02:17 PM

This unique NFL betting situation will make you a believer in trap games

The Chicago Bears were in a unique spot in Week 13, coming off a win as big underdogs and taking on the 49ers as big home favorites.

Two Sundays ago, the Chicago Bears went into Lambeau Field and shocked the world, producing a 4-point victory against the 7.5-point favorites, the Green Bay Packers.

That win improved the Bears to 5-6 SU and gave them a sliver of postseason hope. But the next weekend, fresh off this huge victory, Chicago hosted the struggling San Francisco 49ers at home as a 6-point favorite and fell to the 49ers in overtime. This was a severe blow to the Bears’ playoff hopes, not eliminating them completely but making it much harder for them to sneak in.

Trap games have long been considered a real phenomenon in the NFL. Although the definition of a trap is a little nebulous and hard to define, it’s most commonly thought of as a game that is a mismatch on paper - i.e. one team is considered better than the other, and the better team is coming off of a big win or looking forward to big game.

When you’re a mediocre team like the Bears, it’s questionable whether you can even have trap games. Yet their game last weekend against the 49ers certainly looked like one (hindsight is 20/20 and all, but even before that it did). This also represents a particular type of trap game where a team is coming off a surprising upset and is playing a team so bad, they are massively favored in their next game.

As you might imagine, this does not occur that often. Usually, if a team is bad enough to be large underdogs one week they are not good enough to be large favorites the next week. It only happens when you have a pretty mediocre team (the Bears) playing a top-tier team one week (the Packers) and then one of the worst teams the next (the 49ers). For example, only 44 teams in our database were +7.5 or worse one week and then -6 the next. Therefore, for our analysis we may want to expand the boundaries a little.

Aside from the actual effect of the trap game, that players may overlook their opponent and play better, there may also be another force that’s affecting the line and making it look like a trap game. Bettors may have seen the Bears win and thought that the Bears were better than they actually are.

In other words, although the Packers-Bears game reveals more information about each team’s true talent level, if bettors read too much into the game and end up thinking that the Bears are better than they actually are because of that one game, then the line next week may be higher than it should be. There are two effects here and it is hard to determine which of them is dominant. But for betting purposes it doesn’t matter, both help us make money.

So we want to look at teams that were underdogs and won and then were favorites in their next game. But how big of underdogs should they have to be to be included in our analysis? And how big of favorites the next week?

We first decided to look at teams that were more than 5-point underdogs and then more than 5-point favorites, since that is nice round number and means they were basically two field goals/a touchdown underdogs/favorites.

There were 128 instances where teams were 5-point underdogs and then 5-point favorites the subsequent week. The team only covered 51 times or 39.8 percent of the time. That is extremely practically significant, even considering the 5 percent vig, and we would be able to make a decent amount of money betting against these teams.

Had we bet $105 to win $100 against all these teams, we would have made $2,345 - good for a 17.5 percent return rate. This is also a statistically significant difference, with a p-value of 0.02674. This makes it safe to assume that even if there isn’t really a trap game effect, there is something that pushes the lines too much towards those teams - either way, you should bet against them.

What happens if we widen our scope a little bit to include games where the team was as a greater than 3-point underdog the game before and is now a 3-point (or more) favorite? We now have 346 observations, and the team managed to cover the spread in 155 or 44.8 percent of those games.

That is statistically significant, with a p-value of 0.059. So clearly, it’s not as large of a difference as before, suggesting that as you shrink what you consider to be a “large” upset and a “large” favorite, there doesn’t appear as large of a trap game effect.

Although, as I said before, it is hard to tell whether teams actually play worse in a trap game or if it’s just bettors reading too much into a big win. In addition to these types of trap games, we also have the situations where a team is coming off a tough win against a quality opponent and then plays a bad team.

For this, we would want to look at teams that won with a spread of between around -3 and +3, suggesting a close game, and then play in a game where they are favored by more than a touchdown, suggesting a game where they’re playing what is considered an inferior opponent.

Does it matter how much they won by the week before to be considered a trap game? If the idea is that they’re coming off a big win and feeling good and confident, then yes one would think it matters.

As it turns out, when looking at the data, that it doesn’t matter. If we look at all teams who meet the previous criterion without considering how much they won by, we have 361 teams, of which 181 won against the spread - nearly 50 percent. If we look at only teams that won by a touchdown or more, we have 246 teams of which 124 won the next week against the spread… also nearly 50 percent.

Although that doesn’t prove definitively that trap games of that sort don’t exist, it suggests that most of the difference we saw in earlier situations - the kind that the Bears found themselves in - is due to bettors giving them too much credit and thinking that they’re better than they actually are.

So does this help you going into the upcoming week? There were two teams who won the past weekend as an underdog of 5-points or greater: the Philadelphia Eagles and the San Francisco 49ers.

However, the Eagles are 1.5-point underdogs against the Buffalo Bills, while the 49ers are also 1.5-point underdogs against the Cleveland Browns. While there may not be any opportunities to put this newfound knowledge to work this week, keep an eye out in the future.

**Udog** · 12-10-2015, 02:43 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 14

Sunday - Dec, 13

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Pittsburgh: 7-1 UNDER as an underdog
Cincinnati: 7-1 ATS as a favorite

Buffalo at Philadelphia, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 14-5 UNDER in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49
Philadelphia: 8-19 ATS at home where the total is between 45.5 and 49

Atlanta at Carolina, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 0-6 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Carolina: 7-1 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest

San Francisco at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
San Francisco: 0-9 ATS in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42
Cleveland: 28-10 UNDER as a home favorite of 3 points or less

Washington at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Washington: 2-8 ATS off 2 or more consecutive unders
Chicago: 61-50 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3

Detroit at St Louis, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 8-1 UNDER after a loss by 10 or more points
St Louis: 9-21 ATS after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games

San Diego at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 0-6 ATS revenging a loss against opponent
Kansas City: 6-0 ATS after 2 games with a turnover margin of +1 or better

New Orleans at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
New Orleans: 16-5 ATS on road after allowing 175 or more rush yds last game
Tampa Bay: 71-49 UNDER as a home favorite

Indianapolis at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Indianapolis: 5-1 ATS after allowing 40 points or more last game
Jacksonville: 1-6 ATS after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game

Tennessee at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 16-5 ATS after gaining 200 or more rushing yards last game
New York: 72-100 ATS after playing their last game on the road

New England at Houston, 8:30 ET
New England: 12-3 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
Houston: 16-4 OVER as a home underdog of 3 points or less

Oakland at Denver, 4:05 ET
Oakland: 29-55 ATS in December games
Denver: 23-11 ATS in games played on a grass field

Dallas at Green Bay, 4:25 ET
Dallas: 16-31 ATS in road games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3
Green Bay: 58-37 ATS off a road win

Seattle at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
Seattle: 14-6 ATS after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games
Baltimore: 1-3 ATS after a loss by 6 or less points

Monday - Dec, 14

NY Giants at Miami, 8:30 ET
New York: 19-7 ATS against AFC East division opponents
Miami: 2-10 ATS after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games

**Udog** · 12-10-2015, 02:45 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 14

Sunday's games
Steelers (7-5) @ Bengals (10-2)-- Cincy (even) won 16-10 at Pittsburgh in Week 8, its first win in last four series games; series was swept in six of last eight years. Steelers are 4-1 in last five visits here. Steelers won three of last four games, scoring 30+ points all four games- they're 2-3 on road (1-2-1 as road dogs) with their only road wins at woeful Rams/Chargers. Bengals are 4-1-1 as home favorites this year; they won glorified scrimmages last couple of weeks over Rams/Browns by total of 68-10; they're 10-1-1 vs spread this year. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 14-24-3 vs spread. Three of last four Pitt games went over the total; five of last six Bengal games stayed under. Teams are 3-6-2 vs spread this year week after playing Indianapolis.

Bills (6-6) @ Eagles (5-7)-- LeSean McCoy returns to Philly with Buffalo squad playing its fourth road game in five weeks; Bills are 5-0 this year with positive turnover ratio, 1-6 in its other games. Eagles have only three takeaways (-5) in last four games. Eagles snapped skid at Foxboro LY, scoring two special teams TDs and one on defense- they're 5-1 when they score 24+ points, 0-6 when they don't. Bills held four of last five opponents to 21 or less points. Buffalo won five of last seven series games; their last visit here was in '07. Average total in first half of last four Eagle games: 32.5. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 7-12 vs spread, 4-5 at home; AFC East road favorites are 3-6. Five of last seven Buffalo games, four of last five Philly games went over total.

Falcons (6-6) @ Panthers (12-0)-- Skidding Atlanta lost six of last seven games, four of its last five losses were by 4 or less points. Falcons lost four of last five games with Carolina; three of four losses were by 10+ points. Atlanta is 5-4 in last nine visits here. Falcons split six road games; this is first time they're underdog since first two weeks (2-0) of this season. Carolina scored 39.3 ppg in last three games; they're 3-2 as home favorites; four of its six home wins are by 8 or less points. Panthers ran ball for 148.7 ypg last three weeks; they trailed at halftime LW for first time this season. Underdogs covered five of six NFC South divisional games this year. Last six Atlanta games stayed under the total; eight of last ten Carolina games went over.

49ers (4-8) @ Browns (2-10)-- Cleveland goes back to Manziel at QB; they've lost seven games in row (0-6 vs spread in last six), allowing 30+ points in last five-they've run ball for 50.6 ypg in last five games. 49ers are 2-2 (3-1 against spread) with Gabbert at QB, winning in OT LW at Chicago, their first road win in six tries- they're 4-0 vs spread when scoring 20+ points, 2-6 when they don't. Browns won two of three series games, with average total of 27.3 in three games. Cleveland is 1-4 in games decided by 7 or less points. AFC North non-divisional home teams are 10-5 vs spread; NFC West road teams are 6-9. Four of last six 49er games, three of last four Cleveland games stayed under the total, but five of six SF road games went over.

Redskins (5-7) @ Bears (5-7)-- Both teams lost on last play LW, Chicago missing 35-yard FG on last play of regulation before losing in OT, Redskins losing to Dallas Monday night on late FG. Redskins are still tied for first in NFC East; they're 11-2 in last 13 series games, winning last five, four by 4 or less points- they won six of last seven visits here. Eight of last nine Chicago games were decided by four or less points or in OT; they're 1-5 at home, with only win 22-20 over Oakland. Washington is 0-5 on road, 1-4 vs spread, losing by an average of 32-17. NFC East non-divisional road teams are 5-8 vs spread; NFC North home teams are 9-7. Four of six Chicago home games went over total. Jay Cutler's brother-in-law has been missing for over a week; not sure if that is affecting his play.

Lions (4-8) @ Rams (4-8)-- Detroit is 3-1 since its bye, losing on a 61-yard Hail Mary LW to Green Bay; they've had three extra days to prep here. Rams are in freefall, losing five in a row (0-5 vs spread), firing their OC Monday. Lions are 1-3 on road; this is only their third true road game since Week 2. Detroit won six of last nine series games, last of which was a 27-23 win in Fisher's first game as Rams' coach in 2012. Keenum is expected to start at QB for Rams' squad that scored five TDs on 63 drives in last five games; there won't be many people at this game, with Rams rumored to be headed to LA. NFC North non-divisional road teams are 8-5 vs spread; NFC West home teams are 8-7. Six of last eight Detroit games went over total; seven of last eight St Louis games stayed under.

Chargers (3-9) @ Chiefs (7-5)-- KC (-3) crushed Chargers 33-3 at Qualcomm three weeks ago, outgaining Bolts 385-201; they've won three in row vs San Diego, after losing 11 of 13 to Chargers before that. Chiefs won/covered their last six games- they're +15 in turnovers in those six, after being -2 in first six games. San Diego covered last three road games; they are 1-4 on road, with only one road loss by more than seven points. KC scored three TDs in 4th quarter at Oakland LW, with defensive score and TD drives of 13-2 yards- they picked Carr off three times in fourth quarter. Home teams are 0-7 SU/ATS in AFC West divisional games this year. Three of last four Charger games stayed under total; over is 3-1-1 in last five Chief games.

Saints (4-8) @ Buccaneers (6-6)-- Winston got first NFL win at Superdome back in Week 2 with 26-19 (+9) win, snapping 7-game skid vs Saints, who won last three visits here, by 7-2-3 points. Bucs are 5-3 in last eight games, allowing one TD on 21 drives in last two home games; they're 5-1 allowing 20 or less points, 1-5 if they allow more. Saints lost last four in row, allowing 36.5 ppg; they're 1-5 on road, with four losses by 12+ points- their only road win was 27-21 at Indy. New Orleans is 0-3 outdoors, outscored 113-53; they've allowed 23 TDs on last 55 drives, gave up 189 rushing ypg in last three games. Underdogs covered five of six NFC South divisional games. Six of last eight Saint games went over total; three of Bucs' last four games stayed under.

Colts (6-6) @ Jaguars (4-8)-- Indy was outgained 431-321, ran for only 60 yards in 16-13 OT win over Jaguars at home in Week 4, their sixth series win in row. Colts won last three visits here, by 27-10/37-3/44-17, they're 3-0 in division games this year, winning by 2-3-7 points, 3-3 on road, winning by 2-7-3. Jax lost last two games despite scoring 64 points in losses by 6-3 points; their last six games were all decided by 6 or less points. Jags are 2-3 at home, beating Miami/Titans. Hasselbeck has rib separation, is expected to play; backup is veteran standby Whitehurst. Over is 5-3 in last eight Indy games, 6-2 in last eight Jax tilts. Home teams are 5-2 SU in AFC South games this year. Jaguars missed two PATs and two-point play in 42-39 loss at Tennessee LW- not good to score six TDs and still lose.

Titans (3-9) @ Jets (7-5)-- Gang Green rallied from behind to beat Giants in OT LW; they are +14 in turnovers in their seven wins, -13 in six losses- Jets are 4-3 as home faves; they are 6-1 when scoring 23+ points, 1-4 when they don't. Tennessee scored 42-34-42 points in its three wins; they're -8 in turnovers; 2-2 as road dogs- five of their last seven games were decided by 6 or less points. Titans are 1-7 vs spread when scoring less than 33. Underdogs are 1-3 vs spread week after playing Jaguars. AFC East non-divisional home favorites are 6-3-1 vs spread; AFC South road underdogs are 6-7. Under is 4-2-1 in last seven Tennessee games, 3-1 in last four Jet games. Jets have been outscored in second half only one time all year, in Week 7 loss to the Patriots (9-1-2).

Raiders (5-7) @ Broncos (10-2)-- Denver (-5.5) won 16-10 at Oakland in Week 5, the only NFL game this year where team won despite not scoring offenisve TD; neither team gained 300 yards in game, Denver's 8th straight series win (seven by 13+). Raiders lost last three visits to Mile High City, 37-6/37-21/47-14; they lost three of last four games, are 3-0 as a road underdog this year, with road losses by 2-3-5 points (3-3SU). Denver won all three of Osweiler's starts, running ball for 161.3 ypg- they're 1-2 as home favorites. Broncos are -7 in turnovers in their losses, +10 in wins; Raiders turned ball over 11 times in their last five games (-5). Home sides are 0-7 SU/ATS in AFC West games this year. Over is 4-1-2 in the last seven Oakland games.

Seahawks (7-5) @ Ravens (4-8)-- Seattle won/covered last three games; they scored average of 34.5 ppg in last four games- they ran ball for 176 ypg last three weeks, allowed one TD on 28 drives in winning last three road games, by 17-1-31 points. Baltimore has problems at QB; backup Schaub is banged up, which would leave Clausen as QB- he lost 26-0 to Seattle in Week 3 while starting for Bears. All 12 Raven games have been decided by eight or less points- they're 3-1 as an underdog. Home side won last four series games; Seattle lost last two visits here 31-24/44-41ot. AFC North non-divisional home teams are 8-6 vs spread; NFC West road favorites are 4-3. Last four Seattle games went over total; three of last four Raven games stayed under.

Cowboys (4-8) @ Packers (8-4)-- Green Bay needed 61-yard Hail Mary to win in Detroit LW, just second win in last six games; they lost last two home games by total of six points. Pack is 3-3 as home favorite, failing to cover last three. Cowboys held four of last six foes to 16 or less points, winning last two road games; they're 2-3 as road dogs, but 1-7 SU with backup QB starting. Packers won last four series games, beating Pokes 26-21 in playoffs LY. Dallas lost eight of last nine visits here, with win in '08. NFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 3-7; NFC North home favorites are 7-3. Seven of last nine Dallas games, three of last four Packer games stayed under total. Green Bay is 5-23 on third down last couple weeks; they had three extra days to prep here after Thursday night win.

Patriots (10-2) @ Texans (6-6)-- New England lost last two games, blowing 14-point leads in both; they gave up two special teams TDs in home loss LW. Pats won five of six series games, with average total of 56.8- they won two of three visits here, with both wins by FG. O'Brien/Hoyer are former Patriots. Houston won four of last five games, allowing 17 or less points in the wins- they won last three road games, allowing 9.7 ppg. Pats are 1-3 as road favorites- four of their five road wins by 7+ points. AFC South non-divisional home dogs are 5-3 vs spread. Houston is tied atop AFC South despite starting three different QBs this year; they're +7 in turnovers last seven games, after being -8 in first five games. Four of last five Texan games stayed under total.

Monday's game
Giants (5-7) @ Dolphins (5-7)-- Giants have lost four games in last minute when they had lead, most by any team since 1970. Big Blue lost last three games, all by 6 or less points- they're 1-2 on natural grass, scoring 17.8 ppg. Miami lost four of last six games, with two wins by total of three points- they're 2-2 at home. Giants ran ball for only 62.3 ypg in last three games; they won five of last seven series games, winning 19-14/17-7 in last two visits here- last seven series totals were 37 or less. NFC East non-divisional road teams are 5-8 vs spread; AFC East home teams are 7-7-1. Last three Giant games, three of last four Miami games stayed under total. Teams have same record, but Miami is playing out string, while Giants are tied for first place, despite blowing those late leads.

**Udog** · 12-10-2015, 02:48 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 14

Washington @ Chicago

Game 113-114
December 13, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
128.798
Chicago
133.829
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 5
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 3
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(-3); Over

Detroit @ St. Louis

Game 115-116
December 13, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
131.974
St. Louis
125.989
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 6
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
St. Louis
by 1
40 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+1); Over

San Diego @ Kansas City

Game 117-118
December 13, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Diego
125.264
Kansas City
146.266
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 21
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 10
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-10); Under

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay

Game 119-120
December 13, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
125.015
Tampa Bay
132.911
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 8
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 3 1/2
51
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-3 1/2); Under

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville

Game 121-122
December 13, 2015 @ 2:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
130.003
Jacksonville
126.143
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 4
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
N/A

Tennessee @ NY Jets

Game 123-124
December 13, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
124.450
NY Jets
134.806
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Jets
by 10 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Jets
by 7
43
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(-7); Over

New England @ Houston

Game 125-126
December 13, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
140.943
Houston
134.913
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 6
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 3
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-3); Over

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati

Game 105-106
December 13, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
138.369
Cincinnati
144.418
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 6
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 3
50
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(-3); Under

Oakland @ Denver

Game 127-128
December 13, 2015 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
128.492
Denver
140.343
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 12
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 7
43
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-7); Over

Buffalo @ Philadelphia

Game 107-108
December 13, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
135.897
Philadelphia
131.738
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 4
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 1
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(-1); Over

Dallas @ Green Bay

Game 129-130
December 13, 2015 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
131.912
Green Bay
137.532
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 5 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 7 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+7 1/2); Over

Atlanta @ Carolina

Game 109-110
December 13, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
126.513
Carolina
143.102
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 16 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 7 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-7 1/2); Over

Seattle @ Baltimore

Game 131-132
December 13, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
141.027
Baltimore
129.646
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 11 1/2
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
N/A

San Francisco @ Cleveland

Game 111-112
December 13, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
129.954
Cleveland
121.955
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 8
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 2
41
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+2); Under

NY Giants @ Miami

Game 133-134
December 14, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
127.456
Miami
130.791
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 3 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Giants
by 1 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+1 1/2); Under

**Udog** · 12-10-2015, 10:32 PM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 14

Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles (+1.5, 47)

Bills’ penalty problems vs. Eagles’ up-tempo offense

Nothing breeds chaos quick like speed. And no team is as chaotic – on and off the field – as the Eagles. Chip Kelly’s up-tempo offense is second in the NFL in plays per game, taking an average of just under 69 offensive snaps. With different looks and some creative sets, Philadelphia keeps opposing defenses on their toes.

This will be an issue for the Bills. Buffalo enters Week 14 as the second-most penalized team in football, with a total of 109 accepted infractions, according to NFLpenalties.com. Those flags have equaled up to 985 free yards for the Bills’ opponents. Forty of those penalties have been on the defense and 10 of those have been defensive pass interference along with six for defensive holding.

On the flip of this, the Eagles have benefited from 97 penalties on their foes – fourth most in the NFL. Philadelphia has forced opponents to break the rules for 858 extra gains including nine pass interference calls that have handed Kelly & Co. 139 yards. Things get even more out of hand when the Bills are on the road, with 68 of their penalties coming as visitors. Lincoln Financial will be rocking for LeSean McCoy’s homecoming Sunday.

Daily fantasy watch: WR Jordan Matthews

Tennessee Titans at New York Jets (-7.5, 43)

Titans’ fourth-quarter defense vs. Jets’ fourth-quarter offense

When you're dealing with that half-point hook on the touchdown, like Jets bettors are with this Week 14 home game, you always lose a little sleep dreading the backdoor cover. You can see it happening: New York up by 14 points in the fourth quarter when Tennessee sneaks one into the end zone in the dying minutes.

However, look at the makeup of these two teams, Jets bettors should be resting a little easier – despite the 7.5-point spread. New York has turned it on in the final frame of their games, averaging eight points per fourth quarter on the season and turning that up to 11.3 over the last three games. Last week, the Jets forced overtime against the Giants with a 10-point push in the closing 15 minutes. And the week before they hit the Dolphins for 17 fourth-quarter points to absorb a 13-point push from Miami in the final act, holding on to the ATS win.

The Titans, while having an understated defense, have been trash in the fourth quarter. Tennessee has allowed opponents to score an average of 9.4 points in the fourth and things have gotten out of hand in the last three games. The Titans watched Jacksonville put 10 points on the board in the closing quarter in Week 11, then allowed just a touchdown in the fourth versus the Raiders (be it a game-winning score with 1:21 remaining) in Week 12. Last Sunday, Tennessee was torched for 20 points in the last 15 minutes against the Jaguars, forcing their bettors to settle for a push.

Daily fantasy watch: WR Eric Decker

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-7.5, 42.5)

Cowboys’ budding blitz vs. Packers’ injured o-line

The Cowboys were one of the most passive defenses in the entire NFL, in fact the most passive with defensive coordinator Rob Marinelli dialing up the blitz once every blue moon and relying on a four-man rush. But in the win over Washington Monday, Marinelli unleashed hell on a young and hobbled Redskins offensive line and constantly closed the pocket on QB Kirk Cousins. Dallas, which has only 23 sacks on the season, recorded three sacks – two coming from hybrid LB/DE DeMarcus Lawrence.

The big question on everyone’s mind this week is if the Cowboys will stick to this aggressive rush or go back to playing it safe against the Packers? Normally, Aaron Rodgers would make opponents pay for bringing extras but the Green Bay passing attack just isn’t the same and is lacking that deep-threat option (save for an occasional miracle Hail Mary). The Packers actually rank as the seventh weakest passing offense over the past three weeks, averaging only 210 yards through the air in that span.

Two other things would indicate that Dallas may keep the blitz coming in Week 12. 1. Green Bay, much like Washington, has a patchwork offensive line, with injuries up and down the depth chart. The Packers are an injury or two away from bringing in long snappers and defenders to protect. They’ve given up 29 sacks this season after allowing 30 last season. And 2. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones was very vocal with his praise of this new aggressive style. And, as we know, what Jerry wants, Jerry gets.

Daily fantasy watch: D/ST Dallas

New England Patriots at Houston Texans (+3, 45)

Patriots kick coverage vs. Texan’s sucking starting field position

One of the unsung strengths of this Patriots teams has been its ability to pin opponents deep in their own end, giving the defense a head start each drive. New England tops the NFL in opponents’ starting field position, forcing foes to open drives at an average of their own 23-yard line. On the flip of this, the Pats are fourth in offensive starting field position, according to FootballOutsiders.com, beginning their drives at an average beyond the 30-yard line.

Houston is at the bottom of that stats table, sitting 28th in average starting field position. The Texans open their drives at an average of just over the 25-yard line, which has helped slow down an already one-dimensional playbook producing just over 21 points per game. Houston has record 40 three-and-out drives this season, third most in the NFL, and bad field position doesn’t help move the chains.

The Texans’ special teams aren’t doing much to remedy that either. Houston averages 24.2 yards per kickoff return and only 7.3 yards on punt runbacks. They go up against a Patriots coverage unit that is allowing a mere 18.6 yards on kickoffs –second lowest in the league - and 8.3 yards on punt returns. New England averages 4.2 touchbacks per game, which is also second in the NFL.

Daily fantasy watch: D/ST New England

**Udog** · 12-12-2015, 11:07 AM

SUNDAY NFL INJURY REPORT

ATLANTA FALCONS at CAROLINA PANTHERS

ATLANTA FALCONS

--Out: DT Paul Soliai (calf)

--Probable: S Ricardo Allen (shin), G Chris Chester (shoulder, knee), WR Devin Hester (toe), S Kemal Ishmael (shoulder), WR Julio Jones (knee), TE Tony Moeaki (hamstring), TE Jacob Tamme (shoulder)

CAROLINA PANTHERS

--Doubtful: WR Brenton Bersin (groin), CB Charles Tillman (knee)

--Probable: DE Mario Addison (ankle), DE Jared Allen (not injury related), WR Jerricho Cotchery (not injury related), LB Thomas Davis (not injury related), DT Dwan Edwards (not injury related), WR Ted Ginn (not injury related), S Roman Harper (not injury related), C Ryan Kalil (not injury related), TE Greg Olsen (not injury related), RB Jonathan Stewart (not injury related)

BUFFALO BILLS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

BUFFALO BILLS

--Out: LB Nigel Bradham (ankle), CB Ron Brooks (concussion, neck), CB Stephon Gilmore (shoulder), RB Karlos Williams (shoulder)

--Questionable: G John Miller (ankle)

--Probable: TE Charles Clay (knee), T Seantrel Henderson (illness), WR Chris Hogan (knee), DE Mario Williams (hand)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

--Probable: RB Kenjon Barner (ankle), QB Sam Bradford (left shoulder), TE Zach Ertz (hip), T Lane Johnson (shoulder), DT Bennie Logan (knee), RB Ryan Mathews (concussion, groin), CB Eric Rowe (ankle), DE Cedric Thornton (ankle), S Walter Thurmond (elbow, shoulder)

DALLAS COWBOYS at GREEN BAY PACKERS

DALLAS COWBOYS

--Out: QB Tony Romo (left shoulder)

--Probable: WR Dez Bryant (foot, knee), DE Greg Hardy (shin), S Jeff Heath (shoulder)

GREEN BAY PACKERS

--Doubtful: C Corey Linsley (ankle)

--Questionable: T Bryan Bulaga (ankle), WR Ty Montgomery (ankle), LB Nick Perry (shoulder)

--Probable: T David Bakhtiari (knee), G T.J. Lang (shoulder), LB Clay Matthews (ankle), CB Damarious Randall (hamstring), G Josh Sitton (back)

DETROIT LIONS at ST. LOUIS RAMS

DETROIT LIONS

--Questionable: DE Ezekiel Ansah (hamstring, elbow), WR Calvin Johnson (ankle), LB Travis Lewis (ankle), WR Lance Moore (ankle), T Michael Ola (knee), S Glover Quin (ankle), DT Caraun Reid (ankle), C Travis Swanson (ankle)

ST. LOUIS RAMS

--Out: T Andrew Donnal (knee), DE Robert Quinn (back)

--Doubtful: CB Janoris Jenkins (concussion)

--Probable: DE William Hayes (thigh), P Johnny Hekker (not injury related), K Zach Hocker (right thigh), CB Trumaine Johnson (thigh), QB Case Keenum (concussion), TE Lance Kendricks (concussion), WR Wes Welker (calf), K Greg Zuerlein (right hip)

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

--Out: LB Daniel Adongo (not injury related), T Anthony Castonzo (knee), LB Jerrell Freeman (hamstring, ribs), QB Andrew Luck (abdomen, kidney)

--Doubtful: LB Erik Walden (foot)

--Questionable: S Colt Anderson (ankle), C Khaled Holmes (fibula), LB D'Qwell Jackson (quadricep), CB Gregory Toler (knee)

--Probable: WR Phillip Dorsett (ankle), QB Matt Hasselbeck (neck, back), G Hugh Thornton (elbow), WR Griff Whalen (hamstring)

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

--Out: LB Paul Posluszny (hand)

--Questionable: DE Ryan Davis (knee), TE Nic Jacobs (hamstring), WR Bryan Walters (back)

--Probable: S Sergio Brown (hamstring), DE Chris Clemons (not injury related), S Johnathan Cyprien (neck), DT Roy Miller (knee), T Jermey Parnell (knee), LB Dan Skuta (groin), RB T.J. Yeldon (groin)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

--Out: G Jahri Evans (ankle), DT John Jenkins (concussion)

--Probable: T Terron Armstead (knee), CB Delvin Breaux (hamstring), WR Marques Colston (not injury related), WR Brandin Cooks (concussion), CB Brian Dixon (abdomen), LB Dannell Ellerbe (hip), DE Bobby Richardson (hamstring), WR Willie Snead (calf), T Zach Strief (shoulder)

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

--Out: DE Jacquies Smith (hamstring)

--Doubtful: DE George Johnson (calf)

--Questionable: LB Lavonte David (ankle), DT Gerald McCoy (hand)

--Probable: CB Jude Adjei-Barimah (elbow), LB Bruce Carter (concussion), T Gosder Cherilus (knee), DE William Gholston (concussion), WR Vincent Jackson (knee), G Logan Mankins (not injury related)

OAKLAND RAIDERS at DENVER BRONCOS

OAKLAND RAIDERS

--Out: S Nate Allen (knee), LB Neiron Ball (knee)

--Questionable: DE Shelby Harris (ankle), RB Taiwan Jones (knee)

--Probable: WR Amari Cooper (foot), C Rodney Hudson (ankle), DE Khalil Mack (knee), CB Keith McGill (ankle), LB Korey Toomer (ankle), S Charles Woodson (shoulder)

DENVER BRONCOS

--Out: QB Peyton Manning (foot), LB Danny Trevathan (concussion), S T.J. Ward (ankle)

--Questionable: RB C.J. Anderson (ankle), S Omar Bolden (hamstring), S David Bruton (knee), WR Andre Caldwell (quadricep), TE Vernon Davis (concussion), WR Bennie Fowler (ankle), RB Ronnie Hillman (foot)

--Probable: TE Owen Daniels (knee), T Ryan Harris (knee), G Evan Mathis (ankle), C Matt Paradis (ankle), LB Shane Ray (illness), WR Emmanuel Sanders (ankle, finger), T Michael Schofield (ankle), S Darian Stewart (hamstring), G Louis Vasquez (groin), DE Vance Walker (shoulder), LB DeMarcus Ware (back), DT Sylvester Williams (ankle)

PITTSBURGH STEELERS at CINCINNATI BENGALS

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

--Probable: WR Sammie Coates (illness), CB William Gay (concussion, not injury related), LB James Harrison (not injury related), TE Heath Miller (rib), TE Matt Spaeth (knee), LB Sean Spence (hamstring), LS Greg Warren (not injury related)

CINCINNATI BENGALS

--Doubtful: T Jake Fisher (concussion), CB Adam Jones (foot)

--Questionable: WR Mario Alford (not injury related), CB Leon Hall (back), S George Iloka (groin)

--Probable: G Clint Boling (neck), TE Tyler Eifert (neck), TE Ryan Hewitt (knee), CB Dre Kirkpatrick (knee), CB Josh Shaw (back)

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

--Out: CB Brandon Flowers (knee), WR Dontrelle Inman (neck), WR Steve Johnson (groin), DT Corey Liuget (foot)

--Doubtful: DT Sean Lissemore (shoulder)

--Questionable: G D.J. Fluker (concussion)

--Probable: T King Dunlap (ankle), TE Ladarius Green (ankle), T Chris Hairston (abdomen), QB Philip Rivers (foot), CB Steve Williams (concussion)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

--Out: S Husain Abdullah (concussion), DE Mike Devito (concussion, shoulder), LB Justin Houston (knee), WR De'Anthony Thomas (concussion)

--Questionable: G Jeff Allen (ankle)

--Probable: DE Allen Bailey (calf), P Dustin Colquitt (right knee), LB Tamba Hali (knee), TE Travis Kelce (groin), C Mitch Morse (concussion)

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS at CLEVELAND BROWNS

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

--Out: RB Carlos Hyde (foot), TE Vance McDonald (concussion), LB Michael Wilhoite (ankle)

--Questionable: CB Tramaine Brock (foot), LB Aaron Lynch (concussion), WR Torrey Smith (back, toe)

--Probable: DT Arik Armstead (shoulder), WR Anquan Boldin (hamstring), G Alex Boone (knee), LB Navorro Bowman (shoulder, finger), DT Quinton Dial (shoulder), RB Kendall Gaskins (hamstring), LB Eli Harold (shoulder), C Marcus Martin (ankle), T Erik Pears (knee), DT Mike Purcell (shoulder), T Joe Staley (knee), S Jaquiski Tartt (ankle), G Andrew Tiller (knee)

CLEVELAND BROWNS

--Out: CB Justin Gilbert (concussion), CB Joe Haden (concussion), WR Andrew Hawkins (concussion)

--Questionable: TE Gary Barnidge (ankle), WR Travis Benjamin (shoulder), WR Taylor Gabriel (concussion), WR Brian Hartline (hip), WR Marlon Moore (ribs)

--Probable: G Cameron Erving (ankle), QB Johnny Manziel (right elbow)

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at BALTIMORE RAVENS

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

--Out: DE Demarcus Dobbs (concussion), RB Marshawn Lynch (abdomen)

--Doubtful: DT Jordan Hill (toe)

--Probable: DE Cliff Avril (not injury related), DE Michael Bennett (not injury related)

BALTIMORE RAVENS

--Out: T Eugene Monroe (shoulder)

--Doubtful: WR Marlon Brown (back), TE Crockett Gillmore (back)

--Questionable: QB Matt Schaub (chest)

--Probable: DE Chris Canty (not injury related), LB Elvis Dumervil (not injury related), LB Daryl Smith (not injury related), CB Jimmy Smith (knee), T Ricky Wagner (ankle), DT Brandon Williams (shoulder), TE Maxx Williams (concussion)

TENNESSEE TITANS at NEW YORK JETS

TENNESSEE TITANS

--Out: LB Yannik Cudjoe-Virgil (knee), DT Mike Martin (knee), LB Derrick Morgan (shoulder), WR Kendall Wright (ribs)

--Questionable: WR Tre McBride (abdomen)

--Probable: TE Anthony Fasano (shoulder), DT Sammie Lee Hill (knee), RB Dexter McCluster (knee)

NEW YORK JETS

--Questionable: CB Marcus Williams (knee)

--Probable: S Dion Bailey (ankle), CB Antonio Cromartie (hip), TE Kellen Davis (hand), WR Eric Decker (knee), QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (left thumb), WR Jeremy Kerley (illness), C Nick Mangold (hand), WR Brandon Marshall (ribs, ankle), LB Calvin Pace (abdomen), S Calvin Pryor (neck), CB Darrelle Revis (concussion)

WASHINGTON REDSKINS at CHICAGO BEARS

WASHINGTON REDSKINS

--Out: S Jeron Johnson (hamstring), LB Perry Riley (foot), RB Chris Thompson (shoulder)

--Questionable: TE Derek Carrier (ankle), DE Jason Hatcher (neck, ankle), WR Andre Roberts (knee), LB Keenan Robinson (shoulder)

--Probable: LB Will Compton (shoulder), CB Quinton Dunbar (finger), CB Deshazor Everett (hamstring), S Dashon Goldson (knee, hamstring, wrist), CB DeAngelo Hall (toe)

CHICAGO BEARS

--Out: WR Marquess Wilson (foot)

--Doubtful: LB Pernell McPhee (knee)

--Questionable: LB Sam Acho (shoulder), CB Bryce Callahan (quadricep), TE Zach Miller (ribs), CB Tracy Porter (ankle), S Antrel Rolle (knee), WR Eddie Royal (knee)

--Probable: LB Shea McClellin (ankle)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at HOUSTON TEXANS (Sunday night)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

--Out: WR Julian Edelman (foot)

--Questionable: WR Danny Amendola (knee), TE Scott Chandler (knee), S Patrick Chung (foot), CB Justin Coleman (hand), TE Rob Gronkowski (knee), LB Dont'a Hightower (knee), G Josh Kline (shoulder), WR Matt Slater (stinger)

--Probable: T Marcus Cannon (toe), DE Chandler Jones (abdomen), S Devin McCourty (shoulder), TE Michael Williams (knee)

HOUSTON TEXANS

--Probable: RB Alfred Blue (back), G Brandon Brooks (illness, toe), T Duane Brown (knee), LB Max Bullough (shoulder), LB Jadeveon Clowney (hamstring), DT Christian Covington (knee), WR DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring), CB Kareem Jackson (ankle), CB Charles James (calf), C Ben Jones (hip), CB Johnathan Joseph (knee), LB Whitney Mercilus (back), T Derek Newton (elbow, knee), RB Chris Polk (knee), WR Cecil Shorts (hamstring), DE J.J. Watt (groin, hand)

**Udog** · 12-13-2015, 08:33 AM

NFL

Sunday, December 12

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Sunday Night Football betting preview: Patriots at Texans
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New England are slight favorites in Houston, as they try to avoid losing three games in a row for the first time in 13 years.

New England Patriots at Houston Texans (+3.5, 45)

With their bid for a perfect season now ancient history, the New England Patriots will attempt to avoid their first three-game losing streak in 13 years when they visit the resurgent Houston Texans on Sunday night. A rash of injuries finally appeared to catch up to the Patriots in a 35-28 home loss to Philadelphia last week, marking their first back-to-back defeats since September 2012.

"We'd love to have everybody healthy," New England quarterback Tom Brady said. "I think everybody would love that. It's just not the reality at this point." The two-game skid has dropped the Patriots to the No. 3 seed in the AFC behind Cincinnati and Denver. Meanwhile, the Texans have fought back from a 1-4 start to move into a tie with Indianapolis atop the AFC South despite last week's 30-21 loss at Buffalo. Standout defensive end J.J. Watt broke his hand in practice Wednesday but said he will play Sunday.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened as 3.5-point road favorites, were bet down to -3, before getting back up to the opening number. The total has bounced back and forth between the current number of 44.5 and the opening number of 45.

INJURY REPORT:

Patriots - OL M. Cannon (probable Sunday, toe), DE C. Jones (probable Sunday, abdominal), DB D. McCourty (probable Sunday, shoulder), TE M. WIlliams (Probable Sunday, knee), TE R. Gronkowski (questionable Sunday, knee), OL J. Kline (questionable Sunday, shoulder), S P. Chung (questionable Sunday, foot), TE S. Chandler (questionable Sunday, knee), WR D. Amendola (questionable Sunday, knee), DB J. Coleman (questionable Sunday, hand), LB D. Hightower (questionable Sunday, knee), DL D. Easley (questionable Sunday, ankle), WR M. Slater (questionable Sunday, stinger), J. Edelman (out indefinitely, foot).

Texans - B. Brooks (probable Sunday, Illness), WR C. Shorts (probable Sunday, hamsting), RB A. Blue (probable Sunday, back), T D. Brown (probable Sunday, knee), LB M. Bullough (probable Sunday, shoulder), LB J. Clowney (probable Sunday, hamstring), DT C. Covington (probable Sunday, knee), DB K. Jackson (probable Sunday, ankle), DB C. James (probable Sunday, calf), C B. Jones (probable Sunday, hip), J. Joseph (probable Sunday, knee), LB, W. Mercilus (probable Sunday, back), T D. Newton (probable Sunday, elbow), RB C. Polk (probable Sunday, knee), WR D. Hopkins (probable Sunday, hamstring), DE J. Watt (probable Sunday, hand).

POWER RANKINGS: Patriots (-4) - Texans (0) + home field (-3) = Texans +1

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Split decision here as the public like the Pats and the smart bettors are backing the Texans. Both sides of the spectrum like the over as we have around 70 percent of our take on that side, forcing an adjustment up to 45.5. We haven’t moved off the spread open of New England -3 but I expect the juice to cascade and it may mean a move to -3.5."

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Pats are in pointspread freefall right now, notching only two ATS covers since their post-bye Week 5 blowout win at Dallas, including four straight spread losses. Meanwhile, the Texans have used 18 different offensive line combinations this season, and starting guard Brandon Brooks might not be able to suit up this Sunday, sidelined by a mysterious illness."

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (10-2, 5-5-2 ATS, 7-5 O/U): Star tight end Rob Gronkowski, who suffered a knee injury in an overtime loss at Denver on Nov. 29, practiced on a limited basis Thursday for the first time since he was hurt but his status is unclear for the Texans. Without Gronkowski and slot receiver Julian Edelman unavailable, Brady completed only 51.8 percent of his passes and had his first multiple-interception game of the season, including a 99-yard return for a touchdown in the loss to the Eagles. New England has blown 14-0 leads in consecutive weeks, although Philadelphia scored three TDs via defense and special teams.

ABOUT THE TEXANS (6-6, 6-6 ATS, 7-4-1 O/U): After surrendering a total of 35 points during a perfect 4-0 November, including six on three occasions, Houston was unable to slow Buffalo last week in permitting 187 yards rushing. Quarterback Brian Hoyer tossed three scoring passes last week - the sixth time in seven games he has multiple touchdown passes - and has an emerging superstar in DeAndre Hopkins, who has 10 touchdown receptions and is third in the league with 1,169 yards. Watt has an NFL-best 13.5 sacks for the Texans, who rank third in the league by allowing an average of 218.3 yards passing per game.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
* Home team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Over is 5-1 in the Patriots last six road games.
* Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.

CONSENSUS: The public loves the Patriots in this Sunday night showdown, with 70 percent of wagers backing New England. In the totals market, 65 percent of wagers are on the over.

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Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 14 (Thursday, December 10 - Monday, December 14)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 14 (Thursday, December 10 - Monday, December 14)

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