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**Udog** · 12-07-2015, 06:44 PM

No. 1 Clemson not favored in Orange Bowl as playoff field set

Clemson may have been ranked No. 1 by the College Football Playoff committee, they open as 2.5-point dogs in the Orange Bowl.

College football’s Football Bowl Subdivision now has the four teams in place for its national semifinal playoff games. And while Clemson is the No. 1 seed, the Tigers aren’t the biggest favorite. In fact, they’re not favored at all.

Rather, it appears oddsmakers and bettors believe No. 2 seed Alabama is the best team in the championship field. Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas, installed the Crimson Tide as 8.5-point chalk against No. 3 seed Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium on New Year’s Eve.

Cotton Bowl - Michigan State vs. Alabama (-8.5)

Alabama (12-1 SU, 7-6 ATS), the SEC champion, has won 10 in a row SU since a stunning home loss to Mississippi. That includes Saturday’s 29-15 victory over Florida in the conference title game, though the Tide failed to cash as a hefty 16.5-point fave.

“The Alabama offense hasn’t lit it up this year, but it has done enough to win football games while covering the spread in six of the 11 games we booked this year (Charleston Southern excluded),” Avello said. “Quarterback Jake Coker isn’t flashy, but he makes the big play when needed and keeps the turnovers to a minimum.

But Avello isn’t dismissing Big Ten champ Michigan State, by any means. The Spartans (12-1 SU, 5-7-1 ATS) upset Ohio State on the road last month, then got a touchdown in the final minute of the Big Ten title game Saturday to edge Iowa 16-13 and get a push as 3-point chalk. Avello thinks Michigan State might like its draw in the Cotton Bowl.

“This is the type of game the Spartans like to play – a low-scoring, cat-and-mouse, who-can-make-the-least-mistakes type of contest,” he said. “Alabama’s rush defense is the best in the country, and Michigan State’s is seventh. I opened the Tide an 8.5 point favorite, so let’s see where the bettors take the number.”

Orange Bowl - Oklahoma (-3) vs. Clemson

The fourth-seeded Sooners got the oddsmakers’ nod of approval in the other New Year’s Eve semifinal, with Avello making them a 3-point favorite against the only undefeated team in the country. There is no Big 12 championship game, so Oklahoma was off this past weekend, but it has made a statement the past several weeks.

After a shocking loss to Texas in the Red River Rivalry, the Sooners (11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS) went on a 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS tear to finish the regular season. Six of those wins were by double digits, and five were flat-out routs, capped by the Bedlam Game at Oklahoma State – a 58-23 beatdown with Oklahoma laying 7.5 points.

Clemson (13-0 SU, 6-7 ATS) hasn’t been quite that impressive on its way to the ACC title, but the Tigers have knocked down everyone the schedule makers have put in front of them. On Saturday, in the conference final, Clemson held off a North Carolina rally for a 45-37 victory to cash as a 6.5-point fave.

“I realize Clemson is the No. 1 seed, but I opened Oklahoma -3,” Avello said, pointing to several factors – including revenge from the 2014 bowl season. “Stronger schedule, more potent offense, program recognition and a 40-6 loss in the Russell Athletic Bowl last year as a 5-point favorite. The Sooners were held to 275 yards of total offense and didn’t score until late in that meaningless bowl game last year. I anticipate a better effort with so much more at stake.”

**Udog** · 12-07-2015, 06:46 PM

Ohio State opens as a healthy favorite versus Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl

The Buckeyes crushed the Michigan Wolverines 42-13 as 1.5-point favorites in the regular season finale.

College football’s four-team playoff will certainly be riveting come New Year’s Eve, when the two semifinals will be contested. But the rest of the so-called New Year’s Six bowl games will also certainly be appealing to bettors and fans alike.

Most notable among them: a matchup of traditional powers Notre Dame and Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl, on New Year’s Day in Glendale, Ariz. The Buckeyes were No. 7 in the College Football Playoff rankings released Sunday, just one spot above the Fighting Irish, but Ohio State is a healthy favorite in this contest.

Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas, sent the Buckeyes out as 6-point favorites.

Ohio State (11-1 SU, 5-7 ATS) didn’t make it to the Big Ten title game, but bounced back from an upset home loss to Michigan State by hammering Michigan 42-13 as a 1.5-point road chalk in the regular-season finale.

Notre Dame had a chance to play its way into consideration for the playoff, but fell in its regular-season finale at Stanford. The Irish (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) scored a touchdown with 30 seconds left to take a 36-35 lead, but let the Cardinal get a last-second field goal, losing 38-36 catching 4 points.

Notre Dame’s two losses came by a total of four points.

“Notre Dame didn't play a Big 10 team this year, and now the Irish probably get the best the conference has to offer,” Avello said. “With a little luck, both of these teams could have been undefeated this year, but make no mistake, this game will be as popular as either of the playoff games.”

Rose Bowl - Stanford Cardinal (-6) vs. Iowa Hawkeyes

The Hawkeyes saw their perfect season thwarted, and with it a berth in the four-team playoff, in the Big Ten title game Saturday. Iowa allowed Michigan State to consume nine minutes of the fourth quarter, giving up a touchdown in the waning seconds of a 16-13 loss to push as a 3-point underdog.

But the Hawkeyes (12-1 SU, 7-5 ATS), fifth in the final playoff rankings, got a nice consolation prize with their first trip to Pasadena in 25 years.

No. 6 Stanford, meanwhile, followed up its thrilling win over Notre Dame with a relatively easy victory in Saturday’s Pac-12 title game. The Cardinal (11-2 SU, 9-4 ATS), riding the versatility of Christian McCaffery, ripped Southern California 41-22 giving 4.5 points.

“My initial thinking was that this game would be an Ohio State-Stanford matchup, but the committee dropped Iowa just one notch after its loss to Michigan State,” Avello said. “Stanford is going to be close to a touchdown favorite here, because the Cardinal are playing as good as any of the teams in the four-team playoff.”

Sugar Bowl - Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Mississippi Rebels (-7)

The Rebels (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS) finished the season with a pair of good wins, cashing in both efforts. After thumping Louisiana State 38-17 as a 7-point home fave, Ole Miss capped the regular season with a 38-27 Egg Bowl victory as a 2-point road chalk against Mississippi State.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma State started out 10-0 SU, but ended the regular season on a sour note, losing its last two SU and ATS. In the regular-season finale, the Bedlam Game, the Cowboys (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS) got hammered by Oklahoma 58-23 as a 7.5-point home pup. But they still managed the invite to a New Year’s Six game as the second-place team from the Big 12.

“Oklahoma State finished the season losing their last two, and no matter who the Cowboys play, they're going to give up big numbers,” Avello said. “Mississippi has played a very tough schedule this year, and nothing should surprise the Rebels.”

Peach Bowl - Houston Cougars vs. Florida State Seminoles (-7)

The Seminoles (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) were ninth in the playoff rankings, above Mississippi (12th) and Oklahoma State (16th), but got the less-glamorous matchup with a trip to Atlanta. Florida State finished the season pretty strong, cashing five in a row while going 4-1 SU, with the only loss at Clemson. The ‘Noles capped the regular season with a 27-2 beatdown of Florida giving 2.5 points on the road.

Houston (12-1 SU, 8-5 ATS) got into a New Year’s Six bowl by virtue of being the highest-rated team from the Group of 5 – the five non-power conferences. The Cougars, ranked 18th, won Saturday’s American Athletic Conference title game 24-13 giving 5.5 points against Temple.

“This is a big spot for a Houston team that normally plays in the Armed Forces Bowl or the Compass Bowl,” Avello said. “The Cougars catch a very successful team during the bowl season in Florida State, which has won six of its last seven bowl games. It's all about preparation, and we'll see if Houston coach Tom Herman, the former Ohio State offensive coordinator, learned anything from Buckeyes coach Urban Meyer.”

**Dr. Bubba** · 12-08-2015, 11:32 PM

Thanks Udog, glad to see you seem to be doing ok !

**Udog** · 12-09-2015, 10:22 PM

Originally posted by Dr. Bubba View Post

Thanks Udog, glad to see you seem to be doing ok !

So far, so good, Bubba. It seems to be coming right along. I don't have that awful soreness anymore and that's a major gift!

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