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Saturday's Top Action
December 2, 2015
FLORIDA GATORS (10-2) vs. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (11-1)
Georgia Dome - Atlanta, GA
Kickoff: Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Alabama -17.5, Total: 40
Florida and Alabama will meet once again in Atlanta this Saturday for their 8th SEC Championship matchup.
The 18th-ranked Gators (10-2 SU and 6-5-1 ATS) find themselves in their 11th SEC Championship game since 1992, hoping to erase the memory of their embarrassing 27-2 home loss to Florida State last weekend.
Meanwhile, the 2nd-ranked Crimson Tide (11-1 SU and 7-5 ATS), the defending conference champions, have won nine straight games including a 29-13 victory on the road against rival Auburn last week. The Tide, who are heavy favorites in Saturday’s game, have gotten the better of the Gators over the past few decades, beating them 8-6 SU and 9-4 ATS since 1992 and winning the past four meetings.
The teams last met in September 2014, when Alabama doubled up on Florida to cover the spread 42-21 while limiting its opponent to just 93 passing yards. Bettors can find favorable trends for both teams heading into Saturday. The Gators are 38-17 ATS after a two-game homestand since 1992, and 40-22 ATS over the same period on the road against good passing teams (58%+completion pct). In their opponents’ favor, the Crimson Tide are 32-16 ATS against good passing defenses (allowing 5.75 or fewer YPA) since 1992, and the team is 40-22 ATS after three or more consecutive SU wins under head coach Nick Saban.
Injuries are decimating Florida on both sides of the ball this week. LB Alex Anzalone (shoulder), OL Jordan Sherit (hamstring), DL Andrew Ivie (knee), OL Alex McCalister (foot), WR Raphael Andrades (undisclosed), DB Chris Williamson (back), WR C.J. Worton (undisclosed), DL Taven Bryan (undisclosed), and WR Demarcus Robinson (suspension) are questionable to play Saturday night, while DLs Jonathan Bullard (knee) and Joey Ivie (knee) have been upgraded to probable.
Alabama is relatively healthy, though RB Kenyan Drake (arm) is listed as questionable and LB Denzel Devall (knee), who sustained his injury last week, has been upgraded to probable for Saturday’s game.
For a team competing for a major conference championship, the Florida offense has been well below average this season. The Gators score just 25.2 PPG (92nd in FBS) and have been slipping in recent weeks -- failing to score on offense against Florida State as part of their anemic 15.3 PPG in the past three games.
Sophomore QB Treon Harris has filled in ably, albeit unremarkably, during the back half of the season for starting QB Will Grier, who has been suspended since mid-October. In his turn at the helm, Harris has completed 102-of-190 passes (54%) for 1,365 yards, eight touchdowns and four interceptions, while adding 193 yards on 73 runs. He struggled last week against the Seminoles though, connecting on 19-of-38 throws (50%) for just 134 yards and no scores.
RB Kelvin Taylor has been the Gators leading scorer this season, finding the end zone 13 times – more than triple the team’s next highest scorers. They have effectively controlled game flow this season, particularly on the road, where they average 34:57 of ball possession per game. Like its Saturday opponent, Florida’s defense has been outstanding this season, giving up just 15.5 PPG (5th in nation) and 283.6 total YPG.
Alabama, which can secure a berth in the College Football Playoff with a win on Saturday, has been formidable on both sides of the ball this season. The team, which averages 34.5 PPG (33rd in FBS) and 421.3 YPG, has been on fire its past three games – upping its points per game to 38.7.
Junior RB Derrick Henry, the leading rusher in the nation with 1,797 yards and 22 TD, has been the centerpiece of the Alabama offense. Henry set a school record in last week’s game against Auburn with 46 rushing attempts, gaining 271 yards along the way, his fourth 200+ yard effort in just six games.
Senior QB Jake Coker has been solid at the helm for the team, connecting on 204-of-312 (65.4%) for 2,285 yards, 15 TD, and 8 INT on the season. Like their opponent, the Crimson Tide have excelled at clock management, controlling the ball for an average of 33:04 per game.
Alabama’s defense has been elite, limiting opponents to just 14.3 PPG (3rd in FBS), including a mere 8.3 PPG over the past three contests, and a scant 246.6 total YPG. The squad has been particularly effective defending the run, giving up just 79 YPG, and allowing only two opponents all season to hit the 100-yard rushing mark.
STANFORD CARDINAL (10-2) vs. USC TROJANS (8-4)
Levi's Stadium - Santa Clara, CA
Kickoff: Saturday, 7:45 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Stanford -5, Total: 61
No. 9 Stanford meets unranked USC in Saturday’s Pac-12 Championship game.
The Cardinal (10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS) enter this weekend’s conference title game riding high off last Saturday’s thrilling, last-second 38-36 victory over Notre Dame, and will be looking to win their third conference championship in four seasons.
After a rocky start to the 2015 campaign and a mid-season coaching change, the Trojans (8-4 SU and 6-6 ATS) have won five of their past six contests. They beat arch rival UCLA last week 40-21 to secure a first-place finish in the Pac-12 South Division.
Stanford, a small favorite this weekend, upset then-No. 6 USC 41-31 in the earlier matchup this season in Week 3. Dating back to 1992, the Trojans are 13-11 SU against their opponent, though the Cardinal have a 13-10-1 edge ATS.
Bettors looking to back Stanford have several trends in their favor, as the team is 33-17 ATS in road games against good passing teams (250+ passing YPG) since 1992, and 17-4 ATS over the same time period on the road after playing a game where 70+ total points were scored. USC doesn’t have many trends running in its direction, though it is 19-7 ATS on the road off 2+ consecutive Overs since 1992 and 2-1 ATS versus its opponent over the past three seasons.
Stanford’s offense has been consistently prolific this season, scoring at least 30 points in all but one game this season, and averaging 36.9 PPG (20th in FBS) and 438 total YPG of offense (39th in nation). Senior QB Kevin Hogan went 18-of-23 (78%) for 279 yards in his first meeting with USC earlier this season, adding a pair of touchdown throws and 28 rushing yards.
Sophomore RB Christian McCaffrey, the NCAA leader in yards from scrimmage this season, had a relatively quiet game against the Trojans in September, gaining “only” 115 rushing yards on 26 attempts and adding three receptions for 37 yards. RB Remound Wright, the team’s touchdown leader, ran in three touchdowns in that Sept. 19 victory.
Stanford’s key to success this season has been its mastery of game flow – the team holds the ball for an average of 35:19 per contest, and limited USC to just 20:31 of offense earlier this year. The Cardinal defense limits opponents to 23.2 PPG (43rd in FBS), but has shown signs of weakness in recent weeks by giving up 32.0 PPG and 488 YPG in their past three games.
USC has been almost as productive on offense as its opponent, racking up 36.0 PPG (26th in FBS) and 457 YPG (32nd in nation). Senior QB Cody Kessler virtually matched Hogan’s performance in their last match, connecting on 25-of-32 throws (78%) for 272 yards and 3 TD.
Kessler’s primary offensive weapon, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, has been the unrivaled centerpiece of the Trojans offense by tallying more than double the number of receptions (74) as the next highest receiver and leading the team with 10 touchdowns. Smith-Schuster caught eight balls for 153 yards and a touchdown against the Cardinal earlier this year in one of his best performances of the season.
USC’s running game is handled between RBs Justin Davis (140 rush, 776 yds, 5 TD), Ronald Jones (139 rush, 890 yds, 7 TD), and Tre Madden (84 rush, 450 yds, 5 TD).
The Trojans’ defense spots opponents 24.7 PPG (51st in FBS) and 400 total YPG, though they have not performed as well on the road, surrendering 29.6 PPG and 436 total YPG. The squad averages a possession time of 29:49 on defense per game, a stat that will be tested by Stanford.
NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (11-1) vs. CLEMSON TIGERS (12-0)
Bank of America Stadium - Charlotte, NC
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Clemson -5.5, Total: 67.5
Top-ranked Clemson looks to punch its ticket to the national semifinals when it collides with red-hot North Carolina on Saturday night in the ACC Championship Game.
The Tar Heels are sizzling with 11 straight wins (8-3 ATS) since losing the season opener to South Carolina. But while their margin of victory is a hefty +31.7 PPG at home, even with last week's impressive 45-34 road win at rival NC State, they are outscoring opponents by only +4.8 PPG in road/neutral contests.
The Tigers (5-6-1 ATS) haven't lost at all this season, but have dropped four in a row ATS with the closest of those games being a slim 37-32 victory at 20.5-point underdog South Carolina last week. Part of the reason for their struggles against the lines is 10 giveaways over the past three contests.
These conference foes have played just once in the past four seasons, which was a 50-35 Clemson home win when North Carolina was penalized a ridiculous 15 times for 130 yards. The home team has prevailed five straight times in the series (4-1 ATS) but Saturday's game will be at a neutral site in Charlotte.
Both schools have a handful of strong betting trends on Saturday, as the Tar Heels are 14-5 ATS in the second half of the season since 2013, and fall into the category of underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points coming off a double-digit conference win going 44-17 ATS (72%) since 1992 when facing an opponent coming off a road game where both teams scored 31+ points. But under head coach Dabo Swinney, the Tigers are 23-10 ATS after gaining 6.25+ yards per play in their previous game and 12-4 ATS on the road after scoring 37+ points in their previous contest.
North Carolina has been rolling on offense all season with 41.2 PPG on 496 total YPG (7.5 yards per play). Although the club scores just 30.4 PPG on the road, it has piled up 42.5 PPG and 501 total YPG in ACC play. The Heels like to play fast, as they have needed only 25:49 per game to amass 230 rushing YPG (6.0 YPC) and 266 passing YPG (9.5 YPA).
Dynamic senior QB Marquise Williams plays a huge role in both of these methods of attack with 2,605 passing yards (9.1 YPA), 18 TD and 8 INT through the air plus 786 yards (6.3 YPC) and 10 touchdowns on the ground. Although Williams had a huge throwing game at Clemson last year with 345 yards (9.1 YPA) and 4 TD passes, he was held to minus-3 yards on the ground.
UNC's big ground gainer that day was RB Elijah Hood, who ran for 71 yards on 13 carries (5.5 YPC) and a touchdown, but those numbers are quite mild compared to what he's done as a sophomore. Hood has increased his season YPC from 3.9 to 6.7 with 1,280 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns. He has rushed for more than 100 yards on seven different occasions and is coming off a career-high 220 yards on just 21 carries (10.5 YPC) and two scores at NC State.
While the Carolina offense should be able to put up points, it's not certain the defense can contain Clemson's attack. UNC gives up only 20.7 PPG on 395 total YPG this year, but those numbers have jumped to 27.3 PPG on 447 total YPG over the past three contests. The run-stop unit has been steamrolled for 209 YPG on 4.7 YPC, but the passing defense has been much more sound with allowing 186 YPG on 6.0 YPA and 54% completions. Carolina has also forced 16 turnovers during the past six games and hopes that the Tigers cough up the football at least three more times like it has done for three consecutive games.
Despite Clemson's turnover woes, it is still producing a hefty 37.9 PPG on 502 total YPG this season. While the team is more proficient in gaining yards through the air with 289 YPG (8.5 YPA, 70% completions), the ground game also rolls up 213 YPG on 4.9 YPC.
This great balance is largely a product of QB Deshaun Watson, who has thrown for 3,223 yards (8.7 YPA), 27 TD and 10 TD this season, while also rushing for 756 yards (5.4 YPC) and 9 TD. Watson had a field day against North Carolina last season when he completed 27-of-36 throws for 435 yards (12.1 YPA) and six touchdowns, and picked up 28 yards with his legs. Watson does a great job of progressing through his reads, as four different Clemson receivers have at least 400 yards and 4 TD this season. Sophomore WR Artavis Scott (77 rec, 709 yds, 4 TD) leads this group, and he caught eight passes for 66 yards and a touchdown in last year's win versus the Tar Heels.
To keep defenses honest, the Tigers will lean heavily on RB Wayne Gallman who has carried the football 215 times this season for 1,145 yards (5.3 YPC) and nine touchdowns. In the past nine games, Gallman has rushed for at least 100 yards on seven different occasions, including 102 on 19 carries (5.4 YPC) last week.
The Clemson defense is sometimes overshadowed by the offense, but this unit has been stellar all season in holding opponents to 18.8 PPG on 289 total YPG. As good as the run defense has been in limiting teams to 128 YPG on 3.7 YPC, the Tigers have been outstanding in preventing big plays through the air with only 161 YPG on 5.8 YPA and a meager 47% completion rate for opposing quarterbacks. They are also skilled in taking away the football with 10 forced turnovers in the past six games, and are facing a Carolina offense with three turnovers in two straight contests.
MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (11-1) vs. IOWA HAWKEYES (12-0)
Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, IN
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Michigan State -3.5, Total: 52.5
A ticket to the College Football Playoff is likely on the line Saturday as Michigan State takes on undefeated Iowa in the Big Ten Championship in Indianapolis.
The 5th-ranked Spartans (11-1 SU and 5-7 ATS) are riding high into their third conference championship game in five seasons, thanks to a decisive 55-16 victory over Penn State last week.
Meanwhile, the undefeated, 4th-ranked Hawkeyes (12-0 SU and 7-5 ATS) secured a perfect regular season last weekend by grinding out a 28-20 win on the road against Nebraska.
The Hawkeyes, who are slight underdogs on Saturday, have held an edge over the Spartans in recent years – winning 10-7 SU and 12-5 ATS since 1992.
In their last meeting in 2013, Michigan State got the best of its opponent, upsetting Iowa 26-14 while limiting its ground game to just 23 rushing yards. This week, both teams have strong trends running in their favor to cover the spread. The Spartans are 7-0 ATS on the road playing against a top-level team (75%+ win pct.) over the past three seasons and 9-0 ATS after having won four or five of their previous six games in the past two years. Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes are 8-1 ATS on the road against good offensive teams (scoring 31+ PPG) in the past three seasons and 10-2 ATS away from home against Big Ten opponents over the same time period.
Each school is fairly healthy going into Saturday’s game. FB Trevon Pendleton (leg), who was injured last week, is doubtful to play for Michigan State, while Iowa has no new injuries to report.
Michigan State’s offense has been productive on the season, tallying 33.4 PPG (42nd in nation) while averaging 399.4 YPG.
Senior QB Connor Cook has been the heart and soul of the Spartans’ offensive game, completing 193-of-336 (57.4%) for 2,720 yards, 24 TD, and just 4 INT. Cook was hot against Penn State last weekend, completing 19-of-26 (73.1%) for 248 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions.
WR Aaron Burbridge has remained Cook’s primary target throughout the season, catching 74 passes for 1,148 yards and 7 TD. The Spartans’ RB tandem of Gerald Holmes and LJ Scott have split work all season, with each contributing a rushing touchdown last week.
On defense, Michigan State has been impressive in limiting opponents to 21.1 PPG (24th in FBS) and 349.0 YPG. The squad has really been on point the past three weeks, giving up just 12.3 PPG and 279.7 YPG while forcing three turnovers per game.
Iowa’s offense has performed virtually as well as its Saturday opponent, averaging 33.7 PPG (41st in the nation) and gaining 404.2 YPG.
Junior QB C.J. Beathard has been a reliable steward of the team, completing 184-of-303 passes (60.7%) for 2,354 yards, 14 TD and just 3 INT. Beathard had a subdued game last week against Nebraska, going 9-for-16 (56.3%) for only 97 yards and a touchdown.
Most of the Hawkeyes’ points have come on the ground this season, with RBs Jordan Canzeri (176 rush, 964 yds, 5.5 YPC, 12 TD), LeShun Daniels Jr. (127 rush, 592 yds, 4.7 YPC, 8 TD), and Akrum Wadley (69 rush, 449 yds, 6.5 YPC, 7 TD) contributing the bulk of the production, and Beathard adding 82 rushes for 285 yards and six scores.
Canzeri had himself a solid performance last week, running 17 times for 140 yards and a pair of touchdowns. WR Matt VandeBerg has been Beathard’s go-to receiver on the season, earning more than twice as many receptions (59) as any of his teammates (29), though his production has dwindled in his past few games.
Iowa’s defense has been stout this season, ceding just 18.7 PPG (15th in FBS) and 333.6 total YPG. However, unlike its Saturday opponent, the squad has struggled in the past few weeks, surrendering 25.0 PPG and 424.0 total YPG in their past three contests.
December 2, 2015
FLORIDA GATORS (10-2) vs. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (11-1)
Georgia Dome - Atlanta, GA
Kickoff: Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Alabama -17.5, Total: 40
Florida and Alabama will meet once again in Atlanta this Saturday for their 8th SEC Championship matchup.
The 18th-ranked Gators (10-2 SU and 6-5-1 ATS) find themselves in their 11th SEC Championship game since 1992, hoping to erase the memory of their embarrassing 27-2 home loss to Florida State last weekend.
Meanwhile, the 2nd-ranked Crimson Tide (11-1 SU and 7-5 ATS), the defending conference champions, have won nine straight games including a 29-13 victory on the road against rival Auburn last week. The Tide, who are heavy favorites in Saturday’s game, have gotten the better of the Gators over the past few decades, beating them 8-6 SU and 9-4 ATS since 1992 and winning the past four meetings.
The teams last met in September 2014, when Alabama doubled up on Florida to cover the spread 42-21 while limiting its opponent to just 93 passing yards. Bettors can find favorable trends for both teams heading into Saturday. The Gators are 38-17 ATS after a two-game homestand since 1992, and 40-22 ATS over the same period on the road against good passing teams (58%+completion pct). In their opponents’ favor, the Crimson Tide are 32-16 ATS against good passing defenses (allowing 5.75 or fewer YPA) since 1992, and the team is 40-22 ATS after three or more consecutive SU wins under head coach Nick Saban.
Injuries are decimating Florida on both sides of the ball this week. LB Alex Anzalone (shoulder), OL Jordan Sherit (hamstring), DL Andrew Ivie (knee), OL Alex McCalister (foot), WR Raphael Andrades (undisclosed), DB Chris Williamson (back), WR C.J. Worton (undisclosed), DL Taven Bryan (undisclosed), and WR Demarcus Robinson (suspension) are questionable to play Saturday night, while DLs Jonathan Bullard (knee) and Joey Ivie (knee) have been upgraded to probable.
Alabama is relatively healthy, though RB Kenyan Drake (arm) is listed as questionable and LB Denzel Devall (knee), who sustained his injury last week, has been upgraded to probable for Saturday’s game.
For a team competing for a major conference championship, the Florida offense has been well below average this season. The Gators score just 25.2 PPG (92nd in FBS) and have been slipping in recent weeks -- failing to score on offense against Florida State as part of their anemic 15.3 PPG in the past three games.
Sophomore QB Treon Harris has filled in ably, albeit unremarkably, during the back half of the season for starting QB Will Grier, who has been suspended since mid-October. In his turn at the helm, Harris has completed 102-of-190 passes (54%) for 1,365 yards, eight touchdowns and four interceptions, while adding 193 yards on 73 runs. He struggled last week against the Seminoles though, connecting on 19-of-38 throws (50%) for just 134 yards and no scores.
RB Kelvin Taylor has been the Gators leading scorer this season, finding the end zone 13 times – more than triple the team’s next highest scorers. They have effectively controlled game flow this season, particularly on the road, where they average 34:57 of ball possession per game. Like its Saturday opponent, Florida’s defense has been outstanding this season, giving up just 15.5 PPG (5th in nation) and 283.6 total YPG.
Alabama, which can secure a berth in the College Football Playoff with a win on Saturday, has been formidable on both sides of the ball this season. The team, which averages 34.5 PPG (33rd in FBS) and 421.3 YPG, has been on fire its past three games – upping its points per game to 38.7.
Junior RB Derrick Henry, the leading rusher in the nation with 1,797 yards and 22 TD, has been the centerpiece of the Alabama offense. Henry set a school record in last week’s game against Auburn with 46 rushing attempts, gaining 271 yards along the way, his fourth 200+ yard effort in just six games.
Senior QB Jake Coker has been solid at the helm for the team, connecting on 204-of-312 (65.4%) for 2,285 yards, 15 TD, and 8 INT on the season. Like their opponent, the Crimson Tide have excelled at clock management, controlling the ball for an average of 33:04 per game.
Alabama’s defense has been elite, limiting opponents to just 14.3 PPG (3rd in FBS), including a mere 8.3 PPG over the past three contests, and a scant 246.6 total YPG. The squad has been particularly effective defending the run, giving up just 79 YPG, and allowing only two opponents all season to hit the 100-yard rushing mark.
STANFORD CARDINAL (10-2) vs. USC TROJANS (8-4)
Levi's Stadium - Santa Clara, CA
Kickoff: Saturday, 7:45 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Stanford -5, Total: 61
No. 9 Stanford meets unranked USC in Saturday’s Pac-12 Championship game.
The Cardinal (10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS) enter this weekend’s conference title game riding high off last Saturday’s thrilling, last-second 38-36 victory over Notre Dame, and will be looking to win their third conference championship in four seasons.
After a rocky start to the 2015 campaign and a mid-season coaching change, the Trojans (8-4 SU and 6-6 ATS) have won five of their past six contests. They beat arch rival UCLA last week 40-21 to secure a first-place finish in the Pac-12 South Division.
Stanford, a small favorite this weekend, upset then-No. 6 USC 41-31 in the earlier matchup this season in Week 3. Dating back to 1992, the Trojans are 13-11 SU against their opponent, though the Cardinal have a 13-10-1 edge ATS.
Bettors looking to back Stanford have several trends in their favor, as the team is 33-17 ATS in road games against good passing teams (250+ passing YPG) since 1992, and 17-4 ATS over the same time period on the road after playing a game where 70+ total points were scored. USC doesn’t have many trends running in its direction, though it is 19-7 ATS on the road off 2+ consecutive Overs since 1992 and 2-1 ATS versus its opponent over the past three seasons.
Stanford’s offense has been consistently prolific this season, scoring at least 30 points in all but one game this season, and averaging 36.9 PPG (20th in FBS) and 438 total YPG of offense (39th in nation). Senior QB Kevin Hogan went 18-of-23 (78%) for 279 yards in his first meeting with USC earlier this season, adding a pair of touchdown throws and 28 rushing yards.
Sophomore RB Christian McCaffrey, the NCAA leader in yards from scrimmage this season, had a relatively quiet game against the Trojans in September, gaining “only” 115 rushing yards on 26 attempts and adding three receptions for 37 yards. RB Remound Wright, the team’s touchdown leader, ran in three touchdowns in that Sept. 19 victory.
Stanford’s key to success this season has been its mastery of game flow – the team holds the ball for an average of 35:19 per contest, and limited USC to just 20:31 of offense earlier this year. The Cardinal defense limits opponents to 23.2 PPG (43rd in FBS), but has shown signs of weakness in recent weeks by giving up 32.0 PPG and 488 YPG in their past three games.
USC has been almost as productive on offense as its opponent, racking up 36.0 PPG (26th in FBS) and 457 YPG (32nd in nation). Senior QB Cody Kessler virtually matched Hogan’s performance in their last match, connecting on 25-of-32 throws (78%) for 272 yards and 3 TD.
Kessler’s primary offensive weapon, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, has been the unrivaled centerpiece of the Trojans offense by tallying more than double the number of receptions (74) as the next highest receiver and leading the team with 10 touchdowns. Smith-Schuster caught eight balls for 153 yards and a touchdown against the Cardinal earlier this year in one of his best performances of the season.
USC’s running game is handled between RBs Justin Davis (140 rush, 776 yds, 5 TD), Ronald Jones (139 rush, 890 yds, 7 TD), and Tre Madden (84 rush, 450 yds, 5 TD).
The Trojans’ defense spots opponents 24.7 PPG (51st in FBS) and 400 total YPG, though they have not performed as well on the road, surrendering 29.6 PPG and 436 total YPG. The squad averages a possession time of 29:49 on defense per game, a stat that will be tested by Stanford.
NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (11-1) vs. CLEMSON TIGERS (12-0)
Bank of America Stadium - Charlotte, NC
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Clemson -5.5, Total: 67.5
Top-ranked Clemson looks to punch its ticket to the national semifinals when it collides with red-hot North Carolina on Saturday night in the ACC Championship Game.
The Tar Heels are sizzling with 11 straight wins (8-3 ATS) since losing the season opener to South Carolina. But while their margin of victory is a hefty +31.7 PPG at home, even with last week's impressive 45-34 road win at rival NC State, they are outscoring opponents by only +4.8 PPG in road/neutral contests.
The Tigers (5-6-1 ATS) haven't lost at all this season, but have dropped four in a row ATS with the closest of those games being a slim 37-32 victory at 20.5-point underdog South Carolina last week. Part of the reason for their struggles against the lines is 10 giveaways over the past three contests.
These conference foes have played just once in the past four seasons, which was a 50-35 Clemson home win when North Carolina was penalized a ridiculous 15 times for 130 yards. The home team has prevailed five straight times in the series (4-1 ATS) but Saturday's game will be at a neutral site in Charlotte.
Both schools have a handful of strong betting trends on Saturday, as the Tar Heels are 14-5 ATS in the second half of the season since 2013, and fall into the category of underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points coming off a double-digit conference win going 44-17 ATS (72%) since 1992 when facing an opponent coming off a road game where both teams scored 31+ points. But under head coach Dabo Swinney, the Tigers are 23-10 ATS after gaining 6.25+ yards per play in their previous game and 12-4 ATS on the road after scoring 37+ points in their previous contest.
North Carolina has been rolling on offense all season with 41.2 PPG on 496 total YPG (7.5 yards per play). Although the club scores just 30.4 PPG on the road, it has piled up 42.5 PPG and 501 total YPG in ACC play. The Heels like to play fast, as they have needed only 25:49 per game to amass 230 rushing YPG (6.0 YPC) and 266 passing YPG (9.5 YPA).
Dynamic senior QB Marquise Williams plays a huge role in both of these methods of attack with 2,605 passing yards (9.1 YPA), 18 TD and 8 INT through the air plus 786 yards (6.3 YPC) and 10 touchdowns on the ground. Although Williams had a huge throwing game at Clemson last year with 345 yards (9.1 YPA) and 4 TD passes, he was held to minus-3 yards on the ground.
UNC's big ground gainer that day was RB Elijah Hood, who ran for 71 yards on 13 carries (5.5 YPC) and a touchdown, but those numbers are quite mild compared to what he's done as a sophomore. Hood has increased his season YPC from 3.9 to 6.7 with 1,280 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns. He has rushed for more than 100 yards on seven different occasions and is coming off a career-high 220 yards on just 21 carries (10.5 YPC) and two scores at NC State.
While the Carolina offense should be able to put up points, it's not certain the defense can contain Clemson's attack. UNC gives up only 20.7 PPG on 395 total YPG this year, but those numbers have jumped to 27.3 PPG on 447 total YPG over the past three contests. The run-stop unit has been steamrolled for 209 YPG on 4.7 YPC, but the passing defense has been much more sound with allowing 186 YPG on 6.0 YPA and 54% completions. Carolina has also forced 16 turnovers during the past six games and hopes that the Tigers cough up the football at least three more times like it has done for three consecutive games.
Despite Clemson's turnover woes, it is still producing a hefty 37.9 PPG on 502 total YPG this season. While the team is more proficient in gaining yards through the air with 289 YPG (8.5 YPA, 70% completions), the ground game also rolls up 213 YPG on 4.9 YPC.
This great balance is largely a product of QB Deshaun Watson, who has thrown for 3,223 yards (8.7 YPA), 27 TD and 10 TD this season, while also rushing for 756 yards (5.4 YPC) and 9 TD. Watson had a field day against North Carolina last season when he completed 27-of-36 throws for 435 yards (12.1 YPA) and six touchdowns, and picked up 28 yards with his legs. Watson does a great job of progressing through his reads, as four different Clemson receivers have at least 400 yards and 4 TD this season. Sophomore WR Artavis Scott (77 rec, 709 yds, 4 TD) leads this group, and he caught eight passes for 66 yards and a touchdown in last year's win versus the Tar Heels.
To keep defenses honest, the Tigers will lean heavily on RB Wayne Gallman who has carried the football 215 times this season for 1,145 yards (5.3 YPC) and nine touchdowns. In the past nine games, Gallman has rushed for at least 100 yards on seven different occasions, including 102 on 19 carries (5.4 YPC) last week.
The Clemson defense is sometimes overshadowed by the offense, but this unit has been stellar all season in holding opponents to 18.8 PPG on 289 total YPG. As good as the run defense has been in limiting teams to 128 YPG on 3.7 YPC, the Tigers have been outstanding in preventing big plays through the air with only 161 YPG on 5.8 YPA and a meager 47% completion rate for opposing quarterbacks. They are also skilled in taking away the football with 10 forced turnovers in the past six games, and are facing a Carolina offense with three turnovers in two straight contests.
MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (11-1) vs. IOWA HAWKEYES (12-0)
Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, IN
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Michigan State -3.5, Total: 52.5
A ticket to the College Football Playoff is likely on the line Saturday as Michigan State takes on undefeated Iowa in the Big Ten Championship in Indianapolis.
The 5th-ranked Spartans (11-1 SU and 5-7 ATS) are riding high into their third conference championship game in five seasons, thanks to a decisive 55-16 victory over Penn State last week.
Meanwhile, the undefeated, 4th-ranked Hawkeyes (12-0 SU and 7-5 ATS) secured a perfect regular season last weekend by grinding out a 28-20 win on the road against Nebraska.
The Hawkeyes, who are slight underdogs on Saturday, have held an edge over the Spartans in recent years – winning 10-7 SU and 12-5 ATS since 1992.
In their last meeting in 2013, Michigan State got the best of its opponent, upsetting Iowa 26-14 while limiting its ground game to just 23 rushing yards. This week, both teams have strong trends running in their favor to cover the spread. The Spartans are 7-0 ATS on the road playing against a top-level team (75%+ win pct.) over the past three seasons and 9-0 ATS after having won four or five of their previous six games in the past two years. Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes are 8-1 ATS on the road against good offensive teams (scoring 31+ PPG) in the past three seasons and 10-2 ATS away from home against Big Ten opponents over the same time period.
Each school is fairly healthy going into Saturday’s game. FB Trevon Pendleton (leg), who was injured last week, is doubtful to play for Michigan State, while Iowa has no new injuries to report.
Michigan State’s offense has been productive on the season, tallying 33.4 PPG (42nd in nation) while averaging 399.4 YPG.
Senior QB Connor Cook has been the heart and soul of the Spartans’ offensive game, completing 193-of-336 (57.4%) for 2,720 yards, 24 TD, and just 4 INT. Cook was hot against Penn State last weekend, completing 19-of-26 (73.1%) for 248 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions.
WR Aaron Burbridge has remained Cook’s primary target throughout the season, catching 74 passes for 1,148 yards and 7 TD. The Spartans’ RB tandem of Gerald Holmes and LJ Scott have split work all season, with each contributing a rushing touchdown last week.
On defense, Michigan State has been impressive in limiting opponents to 21.1 PPG (24th in FBS) and 349.0 YPG. The squad has really been on point the past three weeks, giving up just 12.3 PPG and 279.7 YPG while forcing three turnovers per game.
Iowa’s offense has performed virtually as well as its Saturday opponent, averaging 33.7 PPG (41st in the nation) and gaining 404.2 YPG.
Junior QB C.J. Beathard has been a reliable steward of the team, completing 184-of-303 passes (60.7%) for 2,354 yards, 14 TD and just 3 INT. Beathard had a subdued game last week against Nebraska, going 9-for-16 (56.3%) for only 97 yards and a touchdown.
Most of the Hawkeyes’ points have come on the ground this season, with RBs Jordan Canzeri (176 rush, 964 yds, 5.5 YPC, 12 TD), LeShun Daniels Jr. (127 rush, 592 yds, 4.7 YPC, 8 TD), and Akrum Wadley (69 rush, 449 yds, 6.5 YPC, 7 TD) contributing the bulk of the production, and Beathard adding 82 rushes for 285 yards and six scores.
Canzeri had himself a solid performance last week, running 17 times for 140 yards and a pair of touchdowns. WR Matt VandeBerg has been Beathard’s go-to receiver on the season, earning more than twice as many receptions (59) as any of his teammates (29), though his production has dwindled in his past few games.
Iowa’s defense has been stout this season, ceding just 18.7 PPG (15th in FBS) and 333.6 total YPG. However, unlike its Saturday opponent, the squad has struggled in the past few weeks, surrendering 25.0 PPG and 424.0 total YPG in their past three contests.
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