The Bum's National Football League Week # 12 Rated Plays - Trends - News Etc. !!

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NFL

Sunday, November 29

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Sunday Night Football betting preview: Patriots at Broncos
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The Patriots are just 1-4 against the spread in the previous five meetings in Denver.

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+2.5, 43)

Peyton Manning will be reduced to a spectator's role as the New England Patriots continue their pursuit of a perfect season when they visit the Denver Broncos on Sunday night in a showdown among AFC division leaders. Manning will sit out his second straight game due to a foot injury for the Broncos, who trail New England by two games for the conference's best record.

"I mean, there’s nobody that has more respect for Peyton than me outside of probably his parents and his brothers," Patriots quarterback Tom Brady said. “He’s been a tremendous player. It’s unfortunate." New England remained unbeaten despite being held to a season-low point total in Monday night's 20-13 win over division rival Buffalo. Brock Osweiler made his first career start last week and helped Denver halt a two-game losing streak with a 17-15 victory over Chicago. Osweiler was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Week after completing 20 of 27 passes for 250 yards, two touchdowns and zero turnovers.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Broncos as 3.5-pont home dogs, but that's moved to +2.5. The total is down to 43 from the opening 46.

INJURY REPORT:

Patriots - G Tre' Jackson (Questionable, knee), LB Jamie Collins (Questionable, illness), DB Justin Coleman (Questionable, hand), WR Keshawn Martin (Questionable, hamstring), WR Danny Amendola (Out, knee), WR Julian Edelman (Out indefinitely, foot), WR Brian Tyms (Out indefinitely, foot), WR Aaron Dobson (I-R, ankle), RB Dion Lewis (I-R, knee), OL Ryan Wendell (I-R, knee), LB Rufus Johnson (I-R, illness), CB Tarell Brown (I-R, foot), T Nate Solder (I-R, elbow), LB Dane Fletcher (I-R, knee), DB Darryl Roberts (I-R, wrist), FB James Develin (I-R, shin), WR Brandon Gibson (I-R, knee).

Broncos - WR Emmanuel Sanders (Probable, head), DE Vance Walker (Questionable, shoulder), LB Demarcus Ware (Out, back), QB Peyton Manning (Out, foot), TE Jeff Heuerman (Out for season, knee), T Ty Sambrailo (I-R, shoulder), T Ryan Clady (I-R, knee).

WEATHER: Temperatures expected to be in the low-20s with a 16 percent chance of snow early, but increasing to a 68 percent chance later on.

POWER RANKINGS: Patriots (-7) + Broncos (-3) + home field (-3) = Patriots -1

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Patriots remain at the No. 1 spot in my Power Rankings, but their power rating number has been trending downwards due to the barrage of injuries on the offensive side of the ball. It took one drive for Twitter to blow up, calling Brock Osweiler the better QB compared to Peyton Manning. He finished 20-27 for 250 yards and no INT?s in a hostile road environment."

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We’ve seen a serious divide here among our clients as the public is unsurprisingly on the Pats while the wiseguys are looking toward Denver. The squares just don’t believe that the Broncos are better without Peyton Manning while the smart players know they’re just as good or better. We’re still offering New England -3 and I think the line settles right on the key number."

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (10-0 SU, 5-3-2 ATS, 5-5 O/U): Brady started showing the effects of losing leading receiver Julian Edelman and running back Dion Lewis, completing a season-low 51.3 percent of his passes and failing to throw for multiple touchdowns for the first time. Wide receivers Danny Amendola and Aaron Dobson were hurt in the win and are not expected to play, which could force New England to lean on running back LeGarrette Blount against a defense yielding a league-low 190.6 yards passing. The Patriots are allowing a league-best 18.2 points and are second in the league with 32 sacks.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (8-2 SU, 5-5 ATS, 3-6-1 O/U): With starting wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders sidelined, Osweiler made good use of his tight end tandem of Vernon Davis and Owen Daniels, who combined for 10 receptions and 137 yards. Star wideout Demaryius Thomas caught only his second scoring pass of the season, ending a six-game drought, while Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson gave the sagging running game a lift with a combined 161 yards. Denver's defense not only leads the league with 34 sacks, it also is surrendering the fewest total yards (284.3) and has scored four touchdowns.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Denver.
* Under is 4-0-1 in Broncos last five home games.

CONSENSUS: Sixty-four percent of users are backing the Patriots.

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Ware joins Manning on the sideline again
November 27, 2015

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. (AP) DeMarcus Ware's lower back injury will keep him out of Sunday night's showdown between the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots.

Ware hasn't played since aggravating the injury against the Indianapolis Colts on Nov. 8 shortly after jumping into the top 10 on the all-time sacks list at 133 1-2.

Ware said he hopes to return next week at San Diego.

He was officially ruled out along with Peyton Manning (foot), who will be out until mid-December. Brock Osweiler will make his second straight start in Manning's place.

Left guard Evan Mathis is questionable with a sprained ankle. If he can't play, rookie Max Garcia will make his first NFL start in his place.

And receiver Emmanuel Sanders (ankle) is probable.

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SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 29

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

NO at HOU 01:00 PM

HOU -3.0 TRIPLE PLAY

U 50.5


MIN at ATL 01:00 PM

MIN +2.0 DOUBLE PLAY

O 45.0


STL at CIN 01:00 PM

CIN -10.0 BLOW OUT

U 42.0 TRIPLE PLAY


SD at JAC 01:00 PM

SD +5.0

U 47.0


OAK at TEN 01:00 PM

OAK -1.0 *****

O 45.0


MIA at NYJ 01:00 PM

MIA +4.5 DOUBLE PLAY

O 43.0


BUF at KC 01:00 PM

BUF +4.0 DOUBLE PLAY

O 41.0


NYG at WAS 01:00 PM

WAS +1.0

U 47.5


TB at IND 01:00 PM

TB +3.0 DOUBLE PLAY

O 46.5 DOUBLE PLAY


ARI at SF 04:05 PM

SF +8.5 DOUBLE PLAY

U 46.0


PIT at SEA 04:25 PM

PIT +3.0 DOUBLE PLAY

O 45.5


NE at DEN 08:30 PM

DEN +2.5 SUNDAY NIGHT GOM

U 43.0

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MNF - Ravens at Browns
November 29, 2015

It’s too bad the NFL can’t flex out Monday night games, but the national audience is stuck with an AFC North battle between the Ravens and Browns, two teams who have combined for a 5-15 record. Baltimore had high hopes this season following a divisional round playoff loss at New England, but could never finish off games in a positive fashion, losing six times by six points or less.

The Ravens (3-7 SU, 1-8-2 ATS) won a close game last Sunday, rallying past the Rams, 16-13, erasing a 13-3 fourth quarter deficit. Justin Tucker knocked in the game-winning field goal at the gun, but the Ravens suffered a huge loss as quarterback Joe Flacco tore ligaments in his left knee and his done for the season. The already-depleted offense will also be missing leading rusher Justin Forsett, who broke his right arm in the first half of the St. Louis victory. Besides the victory, the only positive from an individual standpoint came from wide receiver Crockett Gillmore, who hauled in a career-high 101 yards for the Ravens.

It’s been a Cleveland Browns-type of season in northern Ohio, as they try to avoid a last place finish in the AFC North for the fifth straight season. The Browns (2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS) lost their fifth straight game two weeks ago in a 30-9 setback to the Steelers as seven-point road underdogs. Cleveland’s defense allowed 459 yards to Pittsburgh, while the Browns’ running game didn’t accomplish much by gaining 15 yards on 14 carries. Johnny Manziel threw for a career-best 372 yards, but it was likely the final game for the Heisman Trophy winner, who was benched by head coach Mike Pettine after partying in Texas during the team’s bye week.

Josh McCown will replace Manziel at quarterback for the Browns following a two-game absence, as McCown torched the Baltimore defense for 457 yards and two touchdowns in a 33-30 overtime road victory in Week 5. The Browns haven’t won a game since that dramatic triumph at M&T Bank Stadium last month, as Cleveland put together its best offensive performance of the season by posting over 500 yards of offense. The Ravens had won nine of the 10 previous matchups dating back to 2010 prior to that defeat, while Baltimore has captured six of seven meetings in Cleveland since John Harbaugh took over as head coach in 2008.

Interestingly enough, Harbaugh has never had to worry about any other quarterback to start for him besides Flacco in his nearly eight seasons as head coach. The last time a quarterback other than Flacco started for the Ravens came in Week 17 of the 2007 season when Heisman winner Troy Smith took snaps under center. Baltimore turns to former Texans and Raiders signal-caller Matt Schaub on Monday night, as the former Pro Bowler has yet to throw a pass in a Ravens’ uniform. Schaub last started an NFL game in 2013, while losing in each of his past six starts, all with the Texans during their miserable 2-14 campaign.

Due to Flacco’s injury, the Browns are listed as a favorite for the third time this season, as Cleveland split in its first two opportunities at home against Tennessee and Oakland. Under Pettine, the Browns own a 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS record when laying points, which includes a 1-1 SU/ATS mark against division opponents. Since beating the Titans in Week 2, the Browns have dropped four straight home games, while going ‘over’ the total in all four contests at FirstEnergy Stadium this season.

Baltimore hasn’t much luck away from the Beltway this season, losing four of five road games with the only victory coming in overtime at Pittsburgh in Week 4. In spite of a dreadful 3-7 record, the Ravens are receiving points for just the third time this season, as Baltimore fell short at Denver as 4 ½-point underdogs in the season opener, while cashing late in a 26-18 setback at Arizona as 10-point ‘dogs last month.

The underdogs continue to dominate in Monday night action this season in spite of Buffalo’s push as seven-point ‘dogs at New England last week. Through 12 games played on Mondays in 2015, ‘dogs have compiled a solid 9-2-1 ATS record, including six outright wins with the latest coming in Week 10 by Houston at Cincinnati. The Ravens are making their second appearance on Monday night this season, as Baltimore scored a late touchdown along with converting the two-point conversion in an eight-point loss at Arizona in Week 7. The Browns last showed up on Monday night football in 2009, getting shut out at home by the Ravens, 16-0 as 11-point ‘dogs.

Cleveland is listed as a 3 ½-point favorite at most spots, while the total is floating between 41 and 41 ½. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-40’s at kickoff from FirstEnergy Stadium at 8:25 PM EST, as the game can be seen nationally on ESPN.

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Browns host Baltimore on MNF
November 30, 2015


BALTIMORE RAVENS (3-7) at CLEVELAND BROWNS (2-8)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Cleveland -3, Total: 41

The Ravens will play their first game in eight seasons without QB Joe Flacco when they visit the Browns on Monday night.

Due to Flacco tearing the ACL and MCL in his left knee last week, Baltimore (1-7-2 ATS) will start veteran Matt Schaub under center, marking its first game without Flacco since the 2007 season finale when Troy Smith was the signal caller. Cleveland (3-6-1 ATS) also has quarterback problems with Johnny Manziel demoted to third string after lying about the timeframe of a video of him partying during the team's bye week. Josh McCown will replace Manziel, who threw for 357 yards last week.

The Ravens enter this contest with two wins in their previous three games, while the Browns have lost five in a row, scoring 10 points or less in three of those defeats. Cleveland's last win this season came at Baltimore on Oct. 11, which was a 33-30 overtime victory. But that was just the Ravens' second loss in this series during the John Harbaugh era that spans 15 games, and the Browns are going for their first sweep of their AFC North foe since 2007. Since Cleveland rejoined the NFL in 1999, Baltimore is 24-9 SU (17-16 ATS) in this series, including a commanding 11-5 SU (10-6 ATS) advantage on the road.

There are several betting trends for both teams on Monday night, as the Ravens are 11-3 ATS under Harbaugh after ATS defeats in four or five of their previous six games, and NFL road underdogs (or pick) after allowing 5.5 or less YPA in two straight games are 42-17 ATS since 1983 when facing an opponent that has given up 7+ YPA in two consecutive contests. But the Browns fall into the category of favorites with a terrible passing defense (7.5+ YPA allowed) going 41-24 ATS in the past five seasons after allowing 7+ YPA in two straight games, and their Monday opponent is 0-6 ATS in conference play this season.

There are plenty of injuries to both teams, as Baltimore's offense will be without Flacco and top RB Justin Forsett (arm), while TE Nick Boyle (foot), OT Eugene Monroe (shoulder) and G Kelechi Osemele (knee) are all questionable. Despite coming off a bye week, Cleveland will also be missing key players in WR Andrew Hawkins and CB Joe Haden, who are both doubtful with concussion symptoms, while S Donte Whitner and WRs Brian Hartline and Taylor Gabriel are all considered questionable with less sever concussion woes.

Matt Schaub will make his first start in a Ravens uniform on Monday night, and it will be his first start since Week 17 of 2013 when he played for Houston. Although he has a winning record of 46-44 as a starter, Schaub lost six straight starts to close out that 2013 campaign. Schaub is also just 1-3 (SU and ATS) all-time versus Cleveland where he's thrown for only 2 TD and 4 INT. He won't have the services of either WRs Steve Smith Sr. (Achilles) and Breshad Perriman (knee), who are both on Injured Reserve, and top RB Justin Forsett will also not play after breaking his forearm last week.

Forsett rushed for 121 yards versus the Browns in the first meeting this year, and hopes rookie backup RB Javorius Allen can do the same against a miserable Cleveland run-stop unit that allows 139 YPG this year. Allen has rushed for 249 yards on 3.9 YPC and 0 TD this season, but will be the focal point of a Baltimore offense scoring 22.6 PPG on a strong 364 total YPG. The team has 266 YPG (6.4 YPA) through the air and only 98 YPG (3.9 YPC) occurring on the ground.

Defensively, the Ravens have struggled this season in allowing 24.9 PPG on 354 total YPG, but during the past three contests, those numbers have improved significantly to 20.3 PPG and 281 total YPG. The run-stop unit has allowed only 97 YPG on 3.7 YPC in 2015, but the passing defense has been burned for 257 YPG on 7.2 YPA and 63% completions. This unit failed to force a single turnover in a five-game span from Oct. 1 to Nov. 1, but has five takeaways in the past two weeks including four in the win over St. Louis last Sunday. With the Browns committing multiple turnovers in four of the past five games, expect Baltimore to aggressively pursue the football on Monday night.

Cleveland QB Josh McCown threw 51 times for a career-high 457 yards with 2 TD in the win at Baltimore last month, as TE Gary Barnidge caught a career-high eight passes for 139 yards and a score. The eighth-year pro is having a breakout season with seven touchdown grabs over the past eight games, and has caught at least six passes in six of those contests. McCown has been slowed by injured ribs this year, but his 2015 numbers are pretty strong with 1,897 passing yards on 7.5 YPA and 65% completions with 11 TD and only 4 INT. He is also 2-0 in his career versus Baltimore with 337 passing YPG, 3 TD and 0 INT.

McCown won't have a strong ground game to lean on either, as Cleveland has rushed for a meager 76 YPG on 3.3 YPC this season, and really needs top RB Isaiah Crowell (328 rush yds, 3.1 YPC, 1 TD) to improve his dreadful 1.5 YPC rate in November. Defensively, the Browns are subpar in most facets, surrendering 27.7 PPG and 407 total YPG. The run-stop unit gives up 139 YPG on a whopping 4.6 YPC, while the passing defense allows opposing quarterbacks to complete 61% of their throws for 268 YPG and 7.9 YPA. In the past three games, Cleveland has allowed 31.7 PPG on 440 total YPG. The one saving grace for this defense is its 10 forced turnovers in the past five contests, including two in the last game in Pittsburgh.