The Bum's National Football League Week # 12 Rated Plays - Trends - News Etc. !!

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Lynch undergoes abdominal surgery
November 25, 2015

RENTON, Wash. (AP) Seattle Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch has undergone surgery to repair an injury related to a sports hernia and will be sidelined for three to four weeks.

Coach Pete Carroll confirmed Wednesday that Lynch underwent surgery in Philadelphia to repair an abdominal injury. Lynch traveled to Philadelphia on Monday to meet with Dr. William Meyers.

Carroll said Lynch will remain on the East Coast for several days to begin the recovery and will remain on the active roster in the hopes he can return late in the season.

Lynch was inactive for last week's win over San Francisco and played through the injury two weeks ago in a loss to Arizona.

Lynch missed 2 1/2 games earlier this season with a hamstring injury. Rookie Thomas Rawls has filled in and ran for 209 yards last week against San Francisco, the second-best performance in franchise history.

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Cowboys ready for 10-0 Panthers
November 25, 2015

ARLINGTON, Texas (AP) Carolina coach Ron Rivera sees a Dallas team on the verge of a run with Tony Romo back and trying to keep the Cowboys in the playoff picture.

Rivera should know. That's exactly what the Panthers did a year ago.

Cam Newton's team rallied from 3-8-1 to win four straight and qualify for the postseason. This time, Carolina is 10-0 for the first time in franchise history, making its Thanksgiving debut Thursday against the Cowboys (3-7).

Dallas just snapped a seven-game losing streak that covered all the games Romo missed with a broken collarbone, and four of the games All-Pro receiver Dez Bryant was out with a fractured foot.

''Their best receiver has been hurt, their tight end has been hurt, their running game is still in flux because it's just starting to develop and the runner is getting used to the blockers, and the blockers are just getting used to the quarterback being back,'' Rivera said of the defending NFC East champions. ''They're, I think, on the cusp of getting ready to start rolling again.''

Romo has a knack for winning these games. According to STATS, he's the only quarterback in NFL history with multiple wins against teams that were 9-0 or better - Indianapolis (9-0) in his fourth career start in 2006 and New Orleans (13-0) three years later.

While Newton and the Panthers are trying to ''manage our success,'' as Rivera put it, and in prime position for a first-round bye in the playoffs, Romo does at least share one thing with Carolina's dual-threat star. The four-time Pro Bowl quarterback is undefeated this season, too - in three starts.

''I just think we won a football game,'' Romo said when asked if last week's 24-14 victory at Miami was a lift for a fading team that somehow is only two games behind the division-leading New York Giants.

''As far as going into this week, it's such a short week you just forget about last week and you have to move right on. You get about four to six hours of enjoyment with it and then you are right on to Carolina.''

The Panthers have an NFL-best 14-game winning streak in the regular season, and are coming off a 44-16 rout of Washington, Dallas' division rival.

And yet Carolina was merely a pick-em on the betting line Wednesday. According to pregame.com, an undefeated team has never been an underdog against a team with a losing record in Week 10 or later.

Chalk it up to the power of Romo's return.

''We've never really pretty much paid attention to anybody being the underdog or whatnot,'' Newton said. ''It really is irrelevant. For us, it's just be ready to go on Thursday.''

Things to consider with the Cowboys going for their 30th Thanksgiving win:

HARDY REUNION: Dallas defensive end Greg Hardy wouldn't talk to reporters in the days before his first game against the team that drafted him. He missed the last 15 games with Carolina last season because of his arrest in a domestic violence case, and has been a target of heavy criticism - some of it self-inflicted - since serving a four-game suspension to start this season.

Rivera didn't want to get into his organization's decision not to bring back Hardy, and Dallas coach Jason Garrett didn't want to discuss details of the team's decision to sign him in free agency. Hardy had 34 sacks in 63 games with Carolina, including two seasons of 10-plus sacks.

''Greg is a great teammate, contrary to popular belief,'' Newton said. ''Greg is a person that came in and worked hard, gave everybody everything that he had and a person that you love to watch on Sundays. Anytime you've got a person like that, it's always great to watch.''

NEWTON RIDING HIGH: Newton is coming off one of his best games as a passer, throwing for a career-high five TDs against Redskins. Behind Newton, the high-powered Panthers have scored at least 27 points in 10 straight games this season and are third in the league in scoring, averaging 29.9 points per game.

SHORT WEEK: Romo had his worst game last season on Thanksgiving, and acknowledged the short rest affected his recovery with his surgically repaired back. But Garrett noted that Romo wasn't as far removed from back surgery a year ago, and the Cowboys played a Sunday night game before losing to Philadelphia four days later.

JOHNSON'S RETURN: Panthers defensive end Charles Johnson makes his return after missing seven games with a hamstring injury. Johnson has averaged more than 10 sacks per season over the past five seasons. The Panthers have 22 sacks in their past six games without Johnson.

TIGHT END WATCH: Dallas' Jason Witten still needs six catches to join Tony Gonzalez as the only NFL tight ends with at least 1,000 catches and 10,000 yards receiving. Carolina's Greg Olsen needs six receptions to become the team's leader among tight ends a week after setting the yardage record at the position.

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THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 26

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

PHI at DET 12:30 PM

DET -2.5 DOUBLE PLAY

O 46.0 *****



CAR at DAL 04:30 PM

DAL -1.0 BLOW OUT.....UPSET

U 45.5 DOUBLE PLAY



CHI at GB 08:30 PM

CHI +8.5 TRIPLE PLAY

U 45.0 *****

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 12

Thursday's game
Eagles (4-6) @ Lions (3-7)-- Detroit won both of its post-bye games 18-16/18-13, allowing 97 YR total (2.5 ypc); Lions are 2-3 at home- three of last four home tilts went over. Eagles lost three of last four games; win was in OT; they've got only two takeaways in last three games. Philly is 4-1 if it scores 24+ points, 0-5 if it doesn't; Lions allowed 16-13 in last two games, after allowing 24+ in seven of first eight games- they won last two Thanksgiving Day games, 40-10/34-17. Eagles won seven of last eight series games, winning 30-13/35-32 in last two visits here, last of which was in '10. NFC North non-divisional home teams are 8-5 vs spread; NFC East road teams are 4-7. Seven of ten Philly games stayed under total.

Panthers (10-0) @ Cowboys (3-7)-- Dallas is 3-0 when Romo starts, 0-7 when he doesn't; Carolina is 10-0 when Newton starts. Panthers scored 27.8 ppg in winning all four on road, winning 27-23 at Seattle, in only game on fake grass. Cowboys won last five series games; four of the five were in Charlotte; they're 1-4 at home, beating Giants 27-26 in opener after trailing by 10 in 4th quarter. Panthers won last four visits here by 7-1-4-14 points. Teams are 1-6 the week after playing Miami. Carolina is +7 in turnovers the last two games- they turned ball over once in last three weeks. NFC East non-divisional home teams are 5-8 vs spread; NFC South road teams are 10-5. Over is 6-2 in last eight Carolina games, 2-5 in last seven Dallas tilts.

Bears (4-6) @ Packers (7-3)-- Green Bay snapped 3-game skid with big win at Minnesota LW in first-place showdown; Pack (-7) won 31-23 at Chicago in season opener, despite 189 rushing yards by Chicago. Packers are 10-1 in last 11 series games, winning six of last seven on frozen tundra- they crushed Bears 55-14 here LY. Green Bay is 3-2 as a home favorite, winning home games by 10-10-14-7 points, losing to Detroit. Chicago is 5-2 vs spread in last seven games, covering all four road games that Cutler started- their last three losses are all by three of less points. Home side is 1-6 vs spread in NFC North games this year. Six of last seven Packer games stayed under total. Not sure if it matters, but Packers are retiring Brett Favre's #4 jersey at halftime.

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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Thanksgiving Day

Calvin Johnson is a monster on third down, picking up 301 of his total 828 receiving yards and averaging 16.7 yards per third-down reception.

Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions (-2, 45)

Eagles’ third-down defense vs. Lions’ pass-happy playbook

Philadelphia has a short week to figure out just what’s wrong with the team, staggering into the Thanksgiving Day schedule off a 45-17 beatdown at the hands of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 11, making Jameis Winston look like Tom Brady with five passing touchdowns and 246 yards through the air. The biggest issues was not getting the Bucs off the field on third down. Tampa Bay converted 10 of its 16 third down attempts.

According to 247Sports, Philadelphia has allowed opponents to move the chains on 61 of their 145 third-down tries - 42.1 percent – which ranks near the bottom of the league. What’s worse, teams are posting a 94.1 QB rating versus Philly on third downs and 49 of those 61 third-down conversions allowed have come through the air with 21 occurring in the past three games. The Eagles have also allowed five passing touchdowns on third down in that three-game stretch.

No one in the league throws the balls more for first downs than the Lions, who pick up more than 71 percent of their first downs with the pass. Detroit averages 14.2 passing first downs per game and while it hasn’t been great of third downs overall this season, it has improved the past two games, going 11 for 30 – and picking up wins over Green Bay and Oakland. Oh, and the Lions’ top target Calvin Johnson is a monster on third down, picking up 301 of his total 828 receiving yards and averaging 16.7 yards per third-down reception.

Daily fantasy watch: Calvin Johnson WR


Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys (-1.5, 45.5)

Panthers’ Thursday troubles vs. Cowboys’ Romo homecoming

Carolina bettors were stunned when oddsmakers made the home team Cowboys slim favorites on the Thanksgiving Day Thursday. But a closer look at the Panthers’ problems with these short weeks may have you thinking twice about this spread. Looking back at the Panthers’ lack of success on Thursdays, unveils a 1-4 SU and ATS mark in mid-week affairs but that record doesn’t begin to tell the tale.

In Carolina’s lone victory on Thursday, it knocked off Tampa Bay 31-13 on the road in 2013. However, in the six losses the Panthers have scored a combined 27 points while giving up 115 total points against. That’s an average loss of nearly 29-7 since 2009. Of course, this is a different season and different team – starting 10-0 after a cake walk against Washington last Sunday. However, Carolina travels on a short week to Dallas, which always packs a big crowd for the annual Thanksgiving Day game.

One game does not make a season, but the Cowboys looked like a completely different teams against the Dolphins with Tony Romo back under center last week. The offense was sharp, the defense was able to get some down time – thanks to a TOP of 38:50 – and Romo made plays that just weren’t there in his seven-week absence. Dallas is the only team in the NFL that can control the pace and clock better than Carolina, something the Panthers really rely on. AT&T Stadium will no doubt be rocking for Romo’s return to Arlington Thursday.

Daily fantasy watch: Darren McFadden RB, Dallas D/ST


Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-9, 45.5)

Bears’ pass-catching RBs vs. Packers’ defense vs. pass-catching RBs

The Bears offense utilizes the running back as a receiver more than most NFL teams, with talented playmakers in Matt Forte and rookie Jeremy Langford, who has stepped in with monster efforts since Forte went down with a knee injury. Langford has been a one-man offense, totaling 196 yards receiving to go along with his 170 yards on the ground the past three games. And now that Forte appears to be returning, Chicago has multiple pass-catching options coming out of the backfield.

Green Bay, on the other hand knows this. And welcomes it. The Packers have been tremendous against pass-catching running backs all season, including limiting Forte to only 25 yards on five catches in Week 1’s 31-23 victory in Chicago. For the season, the Packers have allowed 345 yards through the air to RBs on 46 catches – an average of only 7.5 yards per reception – and one touchdown. That ranks fifth lowest in the NFL.

Green Bay has faced some elite-level pass-catch backs as well, limiting the damage they’ve done through the air. Following the matchup with Forte, the Cheeseheads locked Seahawks RB Marshawn Lynch to 21 yards on three catches, limited Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles to 33 yards on five grabs, and held the mother of all receiving running back – San Diego’s Danny Woodhead – to 63 yards on five receptions, which isn’t bad considering what he can do.

Daily fantasy watch: Green Bay D/ST

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NFL

Thursday, November 26

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NFL Thanksgiving Day betting preview and odds
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Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions (-2, 45)

The Detroit Lions are beginning to string together some wins, just in time for their annual Thanksgiving showcase. The Lions attempt to secure their third straight victory when they host the slumping Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday.

Detroit began the season 1-7 with an average of 30.6 points allowed in those eight games before turning things around on the defensive end. The Lions held their last two opponents to a total of 29 points – just barely enough for their offense the scrape by and pick up the win. The Eagles’ offense has not been impressive of late, either, and failed to reach 20 points in back-to-back home losses to the Miami Dolphins and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. “We are what our record says we are,” Eagles safety Malcolm Jenkins told reporters following the 45-17 loss to Tampa Bay on Sunday. “Let’s not get that twisted. Who we are as individuals and a team has yet to be defined until the season is over. The good thing is, we can always change that next week.”

TV: 12:30 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE HISTORY: Since opening as 1-point home dogs, the line has steadily moved in the Lions favor, jumping the fence and moving all the way to Lions -2. The total has been bet down one point from 46 to 45.

INJURY REPORT:

Eagles - DE B. Blair (questionable Thursday, groin), G J. Andrews (questionable Thursday, concussion), RB R. Mathews (out Thursday, concussion), TE Z. Ertz (out Thursday, concussion), QB S. Bradford (questionable Thursday, shoulder).

Lions - CB A. Carter (questionable Thursday, ankle), T C. Robinson (questionable Thursday, ankle), DT G. Wright (questionable Thursday, ankle).

WEATHER REPORT: N/A.

POWER RANKINGS: Eagles (-0.5) - Lions (4.5) + home field (-3) = Lions +2

ABOUT THE EAGLES (4-6, 4-6 ATS, 3-7 O/U): Philadelphia was forced to go with Mark Sanchez at quarterback with Sam Bradford (shoulder, head) unavailable, and the veteran was not any better at coaxing explosiveness out of Chip Kelly’s offense. “We all look at ourselves and I can speak for our own unit and for myself, and we didn’t do enough to win the game on the offensive side of the ball,” Sanchez told reporters. “That’s it. That’s the way we think about it as an offense.” Bradford started throwing on a limited basis on Monday but is unlikely to take the field on Thursday.

ABOUT THE LIONS (3-7, 3-7 ATS, 5-5 O/U): Detroit stunned Green Bay 18-16 on the road in Week 10 and followed that up with an 18-13 home win over the Oakland Raiders in which the defense allowed a total of 214 yards. “It’s just playing better football, better techniques with tackling,” Lions coach Jim Caldwell told reporters. “We’re doing all of things that we are certainly capable of doing. We just hadn’t been doing them often enough.” Quarterback Matthew Stafford did not throw a TD pass in the game for the second time this season but recorded his first rushing TD of the campaign and did not turn the ball over.

TRENDS:

* Eagles are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit home loss.
* Lions are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games.
* Under is 4-1 in the Eagles last five road games.
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the Lions in the Thanksgiving opener, with 63 percent of wagers backing them. Fifty-two percent of wagers are on the over.


Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys (-1.5, 45.5)

The Carolina Panthers are one of two undefeated teams in the NFL and Cam Newton is looking like a fine choice for MVP after a five-touchdown performance last week. The Dallas Cowboys, who host the Panthers in the annual Thanksgiving game on Thursday, are in last place in the NFC East yet still have a decent shot at winning the division.

Tony Romo’s return brought a lot of optimism to the Cowboys’ sideline, and the veteran quarterback helped the team snap a seven-game slide when he made it back from a broken collarbone last week. “I got more comfortable as the game went on,” Romo told reporters. “I think what happened was, the combination of the situational thinking throughout the game - and that got better and better as the game went on - then my footwork got better and I got tighter with everything.” The Panthers beat two NFC East opponents – Philadelphia and Washington – by a combined 39 points and bring the third-highest scoring offense in the league into a stretch of four of five on the road beginning with Dallas. "The most important number right now is the win column," Newton told reporters. "It feels great. Usually we have 24 hours to celebrate, but we have a short week and we have to get ready for Dallas.”

TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE HISTORY: This line has been all over the place, opening at Cowboys -1, then jumping the fence and going as high as Panthers -1.5, then back to a Pick, before jumping back to Cowboys -1.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Panthers - G. A Norwell (questionable Thursday, leg), WR P. Brown (questionable Thursday, shoulder), CB C. Tillman (questionable Thursday, knee), DE F. Alexander (out for season, Achilles).

Cowboys - WR B. Butler (questionable Thursday, hamstring), CB M. Claiborne (questionable Thursday, hamstring), DE R. Russell (questionable Thursday, abdominal).

WEATHER REPORT: N/A.

POWER RANKINGS: Panthers (-6) - Cowboys (-3.5) + home field (-3) = Cowboys -0.5

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (10-0, 8-2 ATS, 6-3-1 O/U): Some of the pregame focus is likely to be on Dallas defensive end Greg Hardy, who is playing his former team for the first time since leaving in the offseason, but it is a different defensive end that Carolina is excited about this week. Charles Johnson (hamstring) is set to be activated off the injured reserve/designated for return list and figures to add to an already potent defensive front that added veteran Jared Allen in his absence. "It’s been a long time," Johnson told reporters. "I’m really amped to get back out there. I’m nervous and anxious all at the same time to go out there and do something."

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (3-7, 3-7 ATS, 4-6 O/U): Dallas is only two games behind the first-place New York Giants in the NFC East and even opened as the favorite in Thursday’s game before the line moved, once again displaying different expectations for the team with Romo under center. The 35-year-old is being asked to play two games in five days after sitting out for two months and will be treated carefully during the short week of practice. “He’s just got to get back to work,” Cowboys coach Jason Garrett told reporters. “Heat, ice, stim. And we’ve got a game at (4:30) on Thursday. The Carolina Panthers are coming to down and they’re a damn good football team.”

TRENDS:

* Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five versus NFC opponents.
* Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Over is 7-1 in Panthers last eight versus NFC opponents.
* Under is 4-1 in Cowboys last five games versus a team with a winning record.

CONSENSUS: The public is strongly behind the Panthers in this NFC showdown, with 65 percent of wagers backing Carolina. As for the total, 53 percent of wagers are backing the under.


Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-8.5, 45.5)

The Green Bay Packers have had their way with the Chicago Bears of late and are hoping last week’s strong performance carries over. The Packers attempt to put together back-to-back wins and stay in control of the NFC North when they host the Bears on Thursday.

Green Bay looked terrible at times during a three-game losing streak that culminated with an 18-16 home loss to the Detroit Lions in Week 10, but made sure to hang onto first place in the North by roughing up Minnesota in a 30-13 win on Sunday. "We've been taking it on the chin, rightfully so, the last three weeks after a couple real poor performances,” Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers told reporters. “This was an important week for us. We really stuck together." Chicago had its momentum swing the opposite way with a 17-15 home loss to Denver after back-to-back wins, dimming its slim wild card hopes. “Our margin for error isn’t that great,” Bears quarterback Jay Cutler said. “We have to play pretty good football for four quarters and we have to play really good football for the fourth quarter. Games that we have won we have figured out a way to do that and games we lost, we haven’t.”

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: The Packers opened as 8-point home favorites and were bet as high as -10, but have since been back down to -8.5. The total has been bet down from 47.5 to 45.

INJURY REPORT:

Bears - RB M. Forte (probable Thursday, knee), TE M. Bennett (questionable Thursday, ribs), WR E. Royal (questionable Thursday, knee), WR A. Jeffery (questionable Thursday, shoulder), RB K. Carey (questionable Thursday, head), S A. Rolle (doubtful Thursday, groin).

Packers - C C. Linsley (questionable Thursday, ankle), WR T. Montgomery (questionable Thursday, ankle), DB M. Hyde (questionable Thursday, leg).

WEATHER REPORT: It could be a messy night in Green Bay with a 100 percent chance of rain that could turn into ice pellets as the night moves on. Temperatures will be around the freezing point and there will be a strong 15-17 mile per hour wind gusting towards the southern end zone.

POWER RANKINGS: Bears (+2.5) - Packers (-4) + home field (-3) = Packers -9.5

ABOUT THE BEARS (4-6, 6-4 ATS, 4-6 O/U): Chicago has been dealing with key injuries on offense all season, and running back Matt Forte (knee) and wide receivers Alshon Jeffery (groin) and Eddie Royal (knee) are again questionable. “Yeah, we’re missing some guys but that’s nothing new,” Cutler, who also missed one game in September, told reporters. “We’ve had guys in and out of the lineup all year long. I thought (backup wide receivers Joshua Bellamy) and (Marquess Wilson) stepped in there and had a heck of a day for us. We tried to use the tight ends a little more.” Running back Jeremy Langford put up back-to-back performances with over 100 yards from scrimmage while taking over the load for Forte before being held to 25 yards on 13 carries in last week’s loss to Denver.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (7-3, 6-4 ATS, 3-7 O/U): Rodgers and Green Bay have dealt with their own injuries to the skill positions, and at least Rodgers (shoulder) was removed from the injury report this week after throwing a pair of touchdown passes on Sunday to help clip the losing streak. “If you could bottle it, I wouldn’t be standing here talking to you, that’s for sure,” Packers coach Mike McCarthy told reporters about the differences in his team week-to-week. “It’s a game of ebb and flow. There are a lot of variables that go into being successful each week.” Rodgers looked plenty healthy against Chicago in Week 1, when he went 18-of-23 for 189 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions in a 31-23 triumph.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Green Bay.
* Road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-seven percent of wagers are backing the Packers in this NFC North matchup, while 52 percent of wagers are on the under.

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NFL
Short Sheet

Week 13

Sunday - Nov, 29

New Orleans at Houston, 1:00 ET
New Orleans: 9-1 ATS on road after allowing 200 or more rushing yards last game
Houston: 46-24 OVER in games where the line is +3 to -3

Minnesota at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 11-2 ATS off a division game
Atlanta: 3-11 ATS as a favorite

St Louis at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
St Louis: 0-7 ATS in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42
Cincinnati: 15-5 ATS in home lined games

Tampa Bay at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 6-0 ATS in road games off 1 or more straight overs
Indianapolis: 74-51 UNDER in home games after playing their last game on the road

NY Giants at Washington, 1:00 ET
New York: 19-7 ATS in road games after 3 or more wins against the spread
Washington: 11-23 ATS as an underdog

Oakland at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Oakland: 21-9 ATS in road games after a loss by 6 or less points
Tennessee: 4-13 ATS in home lined games

Buffalo at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 8-1 ATS off a road loss
Kansas City: 18-33 ATS against AFC East division opponents

Miami at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Miami: 10-2 UNDER revenging a loss against opponent
New York: 2-11 ATS in home games off an upset loss as a road favorite

San Diego at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 19-7 ATS in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses
Jacksonville: 41-24 OVER in home games off a division game

Arizona at San Francisco, 4:05 ET
Arizona: 10-1 ATS off a non-conference game
San Francisco: 1-9 ATS versus division opponents

Pittsburgh at Seattle, 4:25 ET
Pittsburgh: 7-0 UNDER as an underdog
Seattle: 19-7 ATS at home after gaining 400 or more total yards in previous game

New England at Denver, 8:30 ET
New England: 6-0 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games
Denver: 15-29 ATS in home games off a non-conference game


Monday - Nov, 30

Baltimore at Cleveland, 8:30 ET
Baltimore: 0-6 ATS against conference opponents
Cleveland: 9-5 ATS off a road loss

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 12

Saints (4-6) @ Houston (5-5)-- Texans allowed three TDs on 36 drives, won their last three games; they're +8 in turnovers in last five games, after being -8 in first five. Houston is tied for top in AFC South, goes back to healthy Hoyer here; they've started three QBs in their ten games. Saints fired DC Ryan during bye week; they lost last two games, allowed 43.3 ppg in last three; NO is 1-4 on road, with only win at Indy. Home side won all three series games; Saints lost 23-10 (+1.5) in only visit to Reliant in 2007. Favorites are 1-3 vs spread week after playing the Jets. NFC South non-divisional underdogs are 7-4 vs spread, 5-3 on road. AFC South home favorites are 1-4. Five of last six Saints games went over total; last three Texan games stayed under.

Vikings (7-3) @ Falcons (6-4)-- Atlanta lost four of last five games after 5-0 start, losing its last three games by total of seven points. Ryan threw awful pick-6 LW when Atlanta had a 21-14 lead with 10:07 left. Falcons lost 41-28 at Minnesota LY; Vikings ran for 241 yards without Peterson. Minnesota lost 30-10/24-14 in last two visits here; they covered eight games in row overall before losing to Packers LW; Vikings won their last three road games, scoring 27 ppg- they're 3-0 as road dogs. Falcons are 1-3 as home favorites- they trailed at halftime in seven of ten games. Favorites are 0-3-2 vs spread week after playing Indy. NFC North non-divisional road dogs are 6-3 vs spread; NFC South home favorites are 7-5. Five of last six Falcon games stayed under total.

Rams (4-6) @ Bengals (8-2)-- St Louis offense is in disarray, with injury issues on OL, so QBs are getting pummeled; they gagged away LW's game vs 3-7 Ravens, don't figure to do any better here vs Bengal squad that lost last two games after 8-0 start. Cincy is 3-1-1 as a home favorite; four of its last six games were decided by six or less points. Rams are 1-4 on road, 1-3 as road dogs, scoring 15 ppg on foreign soil. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 8-6 vs spread, 5-4 at home; NFC West road dogs are 1-5. Underdogs are 4-1 vs spread week after playing Ravens; teams are 1-8 vs spread week after playing Arizona. Seven of last nine St Louis games, three of last four Bengal games stayed under total. Rams seem to play better vs better competition, but they also seem incapable of finishing off wins.

Buccaneers (5-5) @ Colts (5-5)-- Underdogs are 10-0 vs spread in Colt games this season; Indy is 0-2 as home favorite- both their home wins are by three points. Tampa Bay won its last three games, is 5-1 vs spread in last six; they're 4-1 as road underdogs, losing by 10 at Houston, 1 at Washington. Odd stat: Indy is 3-0 when backup QB Hasselbeck starts, 2-5 with Luck. Colts are 19-34 on third down in last two games. Bucs lost three of four visits here, with win in '97- their last visit here was in '07. NFC South road underdogs are 5-3 vs spread; AFC South favorites are 1-5. Teams are 2-6 week after playing Atlanta. Over is 5-2 in last seven Tampa Bay games, 4-2 in last six Indy games. This is fourth dome game out of six road games for Tampa Bay this year.

Giants (5-5) @ Redskins (4-6)-- Washington (+3) lost 32-21 in Swamp Stadium in Week 3 Thursday game; they've won last four home games, scoring 31.3 ppg- four of their last five losses were by 11+ points. Giants are 12-3 in last 15 games vs Washington, winning five in row by average score of 27-12; they won last two visits here 24-17/45-14. Big Blue is 2-3 on road, with close losses at Dallas/NO; they're 1-4 in games decided by less than 7 points. Four of last five Redskin games, three of last four Giant games went over total. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 5-7 vs spread. Teams coming off bye are 18-10 vs spread this year, 6-4 when favored. Giants won six of last seven post-bye games, covering five of last seven as a post-bye favorite.

Raiders (4-6) @ Titans (2-8)-- Oakland is 4-1 when they have positive turnover ratio, 0-5 if they do not; they lost last three games, scoring 14-13 points last two weeks- they're 2-3 on road, 0-2 as road favorites, with wins over Browns/Chargers, who are both 2-8. Titans lost seven of last eight games; they had extra prep time after Thursday tilt in Jacksonville LW. Tennessee is 0-5 at home, scoring just 10 ppg in last four home games. Tennessee won last three series games by 4-25-4 points; Raiders lost five of six visits here, with only win in '05. AFC West non-divisional road favorites are 1-4 vs spread; AFC South home dogs are 5-2. Titans lost field position by 10+ yards in three of last four games. Over is 3-1-1 in last five Oakland games; four of last five Titan games stayed under.

Bills (5-5) @ Chiefs (5-5)-- Third week in row on road for Buffalo, which lost late Monday in Foxboro and now travels again; QB Taylor was banged-up in 4th quarter, but finished it and is expected to play here. Buffalo is 1-5 outside its division, 3-1 in true road games, with only loss Monday night. KC won/covered last four games, all by 10+ points with turnover ratio of +12, after being -2 in first six games; Chiefs are 1-2 as home favorites- this is their first home game in five weeks. Bills are 5-0 when they allow less than 20 points, 0-5 when they allow more. Chiefs won 23-13/17-13 in Buffalo last two years; home team lost five of last seven series tilts, with four of last six series totals 36 or less. AFC East non-divisional road dogs are 2-6 vs spread; AFC West home favorites are 3-5.

Dolphins (4-6) @ Jets (5-5)-- Miami lost three of last four games, Jets four of last five, but they beat Fish 27-14 (-2) in London in Week 4, last game before Miami fired its head coach. Home side lost last six series games; Dolphins won six of last seven visits here, winning last three by 21-20-3 points. Jets are +12 in turnovers in five wins, -13 in five losses. Dolphins ran ball for 180-248 yards in Campbell's first two games as interim coach, but averaged only 72.5 in last four games. Miami turned ball over only twice in last three games; they're 3-3 in true road games. Favorites are 0-3 vs spread week after playing Houston. Seven of last ten series totals were 39 or less. Three of last four Miami games stayed under total; four of last six Jet games went over.

Chargers (2-8) @ Jaguars (4-6)-- Jacksonville won three of last four games (4-0 vs spread) and is only game out of first in AFC South. Six of last seven Jax games were decided by 7 or less points. Chargers lost last six games (2-4 vs spread); they got crushed 33-3 at home LW. In last eight games, Bolts started one drive in enemy territory, its opponents started 15. SD is 0-4 on road, 2-2 as road dogs, with only road loss by more than seven points. San Diego won last four series games, all by 18+ points; they won last two visits here 38-14/24-6- last visit here was in 2013. AFC West non-divisional road dogs are 6-5 vs spread; AFC South home favorites are 1-4. Jaguars' only TD drive last week was five years. Four of the last six Charger games stayed under total; four of last six Jax games went over.

Cardinals (8-2) @ 49ers (3-7)-- Redbirds (-6.5) crushed SF 47-7 in Week 3, scoring pair of defensive TDs, picking Kaepernick off four times (+3) in their third win in last 13 games vs 49ers. Arizona lost last six visits here, with five losses by 12+ points. Cardinals won last four games overall; they're 4-1 on road, with three wins by 14+ points- in both their losses, Arizona was -3 in turnovers. Niners lost three of last four games, losing by 17-21-16; they are 3-2 SU at home (dog in all five)- they've allowed 15.2 ppg at home, 35.2 ppg on foreign soil. Redbirds scored 34-39-34 points in last three games, despite having -2/-2/-1 TO ratios in those games. 49ers scored total of 39 points in last four games (three TDs on 44 drives); three of the four games stayed under. Eight of ten Arizona games went over total.

Steelers (6-4) @ Seahawks (5-5)-- Roethlisberger has been in NFL 12 years; this is his first game in Seattle. Pittsburgh shut Seattle out 24-0/21-0 in last two meetings; they beat 'em in Super Bowl meeting before that, so Seahawks have triple-revenge on their side. Steelers are 0-4 in last four visits here; their only win in seven trips to Seattle was in '83. Steelers won last two games, scoring 38-30 points; they're 2-2 on road. 1-1-1 as road dogs, losing by 7 in Foxboro, 10 in KC. Seattle won three of last four games, but two wins were over SF, third over Romo-less Dallas. Seahawks are 2-3 as home favorites, with both covers against a #2 QB. Pitt won six of last seven post-bye games; NFL-wide, teams off a bye are 18-10 vs spread this year, 11-5 as underdogs.

Patriots (10-0) @ Broncos (8-2)-- Long travel, short week for Patriots after 20-13 win over Buffalo Monday night. NE scored 32.8 ppg in its four road wins (1-2 as road faves); they have injury issues on OL and now WR Amendola is hurt, leaving them thin at WR. Denver won Osweiler's first career start in Chicago LW; Broncos are 3-1 at home, allowing average of 18 ppg- they ran ball for 170 yards last week, after averaging 52 ypg in previous couple games. Home side won nine of last 11 series tilts; Patriots lost four of last five visits here, with three losses by 8+ points. Five of last six series totals were 52+. Last four NE games stayed under total. Denver defense allowed only two TDs in last six red zone trips. AFC West home favorites are 4-6 vs spread; AFC East road dogs are 3-0.

Ravens (3-7) @ Browns (2-8)-- Since coming back to NFL in '99, Cleveland is 4-0 against spread as a post-bye favorite, but lost three of last four post-bye games overall. McCown is back at QB for Cleveland; Davis backs him up after Manziel threw for 372 yards in loss at Pittsburgh before the bye, but then went off wagon in Texas during bye week. Flacco is out for year (knee) so Schaub (46-44 as NFL starter, last start in '13) gets first Ravens start- all ten Baltimore games have been decided by 8 or less points. Baltimore also lost Forsett in last game; they're 1-4 on road and were favored in three of five games. Under is 3-1 in last four games for both sides. Cleveland lost last five games, scoring 11.3 ppg in last four after tough OT loss at home to then-undefeated Denver.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 12


St. Louis @ Cincinnati

Game 255-256
November 29, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
St. Louis
128.206
Cincinnati
140.305
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 12
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 8 1/2
42
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(-8 1/2); Under

Tampa Bay @ Indianapolis

Game 257-258
November 29, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
135.381
Indianapolis
133.837
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 1 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 3
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+3); Over

NY Giants @ Washington

Game 259-260
November 29, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
130.043
Washington
131.596
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 1 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Giants
by 3
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+3); Over

Oakland @ Tennessee

Game 261-262
November 29, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
130.617
Tennessee
126.709
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 4
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
by 1 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(-1 1/2); Under

Buffalo @ Kansas City

Game 263-264
November 29, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
133.441
Kansas City
146.908
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 13 1/2
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 5 1/2
42
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-5 1/2); Under

Miami @ NY Jets

Game 265-266
November 29, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
125.337
NY Jets
131.547
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Jets
by 6
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Jets
by 3 1/2
42
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(-3 1/2); Over

San Diego @ Jacksonville

Game 267-268
November 29, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Diego
123.311
Jacksonville
124.509
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 1
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Jacksonville
by 4
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(+4); Over

Arizona @ San Francisco

Game 269-270
November 29, 2015 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
134.308
San Francisco
127.584
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 7
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 10 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+10 1/2); Over

Pittsburgh @ Seattle

Game 271-272
November 29, 2015 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
136.125
Seattle
137.180
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 1
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 4
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(+4); Over

New Orleans @ Houston

Game 251-252
November 29, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
135.402
Houston
134.414
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 1
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 3
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(+3); Over

New England @ Denver

Game 273-274
November 29, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
143.234
Denver
136.240
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 7
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-3); Under

Minnesota @ Atlanta

Game 253-254
November 29, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
132.572
Atlanta
130.794
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 1 1/2
46
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(+1 1/2); Under


Baltimore @ Cleveland

Game 275-276
November 30, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
125.348
Cleveland
129.895
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 4 1/2
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 2 1/2
41 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(-2 1/2); Under

[StarDust Bum]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 12
November 27, 2015

South Point sports book director Bert Osborne made a quick decision on Friday morning to move the Patriots off the key number of -3 for Sunday night's marquee game at Denver. Even though his parlay handle was weighted heavily on the Patriots, he had some respected straight bet money built up on the Broncos taking +3 so he's now offering the only Patriots -2.5 number in Las Vegas.

You might think with the South Point showing the only -2.5 in the city that large money would come running fast, but no one had touched it after four hours. It's likely not to move and what we'll soon see is the rest of the city join in at the same number. Get to the right number quick is the strategy as 95 percent of the money taken on the game will happen over the next three days. Every other book in town has the Patriots -3 EVEN. Osborne always uses flat numbers. He never moves the money on a spread.

Side note: the only game Osborne has been burned on this season moving on and off of 3 was last week with the Rams at Baltimore. '3' is the most key number in the NFL with 16 percent of all games over the past decade landing on it. The Ravens game landed 3 when the number moved off -2.5. He paid back the money that took St. Louis +3, money that showed the game balanced on overall risk. But all the early money on Baltimore at -2.5 got paid and it was a loss for the house, and not just at the South Point, but at most books across the city.

The most one-sided bet game at the South Point this week has been the Cardinals laying -10.5 at San Francisco, which has been a common theme the past few weeks for both teams. The public loves the high scoring Cardinals while also hating Blaine Gabbert and the 49ers. Osborne says he's got a 12-to-1 cash ratio on parlays with the Cardinals.

The top public parlay games of the week have been Arizona (-10.5), NY Giants (-2.5), Kansas City (-6), Tampa Bay (+3), Oakland (+1) and the Patriots (-2.5).

The Cardinals are also the most bet team on teasers. Osborne's got the most teaser liability built up on them and the Bengals, the two largest spreads remaining on the week. The rest of the games are all 6-points or less, which isn't attractive for regular teaser bettors, or at least the favored side isn't.

Osborne said the Packers (-8.5) getting beat Thursday night wiped out a lot of the teaser risk that was tied to both Arizona and Cincinnati. He also said the Bears' 17-13 win allowed them to salvage the day after getting beat up with Detroit and Carolina covering where both games went OVER the total. It was a popular four-team parlay and several six-teamers were waiting to cash with Green Bay and the OVER.

Here's a look at what the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted last Wednesday in their early Week 12 NFL numbers and where they're at as of Friday afternoon. The changes are based on rating adjustments from week 11 results as well adjusting to the market and also cash wagered.

New Orleans at Houston: HOU opened -2.5 and have been a strong -3 all week at every book.

Minnesota at Atlanta: ATL opened -3 (EV) and were reopened at -2.5 on Sunday night, but MINN money has pushed the number down to -1.5. Several books are at -1.

St. Louis at Cincinnati: CIN opened -7 and was reopened at -7.5 on Sunday night, but after showing well on Sunday night at Arizona, they were reopened Monday at -9. South Point and William Hill books are using -9 while the Westgate is at -8.5. MGM books have a city low of -8.

Tampa Bay at Indianapolis: IND opened -3.5 (EV) and its now -3 (EV).

NY Giants at Washington: Opened pick 'em and NYG is now -2.5 (-120).

Oakland at Tennessee: OAK opened -1.5 and they're now -1.

Buffalo at Kansas City: KC opened -3 and they're now -6 with BUF QB Tyrod Taylor expected to start. The game was re-opend Sunday at -3.5 and taken down before MNF game between BUF and NE. On Tuesday it was reopened at -4.5 and quickly bet to -6.5. On Thursday it was moved back to -6.

Miami at NY Jets: NYJ opened -4 and was reopened Sunday night at -4.5. They were at -3.5 until going back to -4 on Thursday, but on Friday morning they were pushed down to -3.5.

San Diego at Jacksonville: JAC opened -1.5 and they've been a steady -4 all week since reopening numbers for betting on Sunday night.

Arizona at San Francisco: AZ opened -8 and was reopened Sunday night at -9.5. The move to -10 and then -10.5 happened on Monday and the move back to -10 came Wednesday.

Pittsburgh at Seattle: SEA opened -3.5 and the number still sits there.

New England at Denver: NE opened -5.5 and the same number was used to reopen with on Sunday night. Following the MNF game, NE opened -3.5 on Tuesday and DEN money was quickly taken moving the game to -3. On Friday morning, they moved DEN to +3 (-120).

Baltimore at Cleveland: BAL opened -2.5 and is now CLEV -3 with all the news items that occurred. When they reopened the numbers Sunday night knowing Joe Flacco was out, it opened pick 'em and CLEV was bet up to -1.5 quickly. It was -2.5 on Monday and then finally -3 on Thursday. Josh McCown will start at for CLEV, which is an upgrade over Johnny Manziel, who is now third string. Matt Schaub will start for Baltimore. Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White says Flacco is worth 4 points to the rating.

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 12
November 28, 2015


NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Seahawks are 10-0 ATS (9.2 ppg) since October 18, 2012 after a win where they threw for at least 250 yards.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Falcons are 0-11 ATS (-11.4 ppg) since December 30, 2012 as a favorite after a game where they forced at least two turnovers.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Chargers are 7-0 OU (15.3 ppg) since November 2011 as a dog of more than three points after Philip Rivers threw at least two touchdowns as a favorite last game.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Redskins are 0-12 OU (-11.2 ppg) since December 2007 after a road game where they did not force a turnover.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Chargers are 13-0 OU (15.4 ppg) since November 12, 2006 on the road after a home game where they had less than 28 minutes of possession.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Jets are 9-0 ATS as a dog vs a divisional opponent when they are on the road next.

NFL DFS STAT OF THE WEEK:

-- There are some stars that are known for having bounceback games after a down week and Adrian Peterson is one of those players. Nine times in his career he’s played a next game after rushing for less than 50 yards in the last one, as he did against Green Bay last week with 145 yards. In those games, Peterson has averaged 98.7 rushing yards and 1.2 rushing touchdowns.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 12
November 28, 2015


The “Under Express” continued last week with a 9-5 record and most of the results were clear-cut winners. Including those outcomes, the ‘under’ is 17-9-2 (65%) the last two weeks.

The pendulum swung back on Thursday as a couple ‘over’ tickets connected and perhaps that’s a sign of what will occur this weekend. Excluding the holiday results, total bettors have seen the ‘over’ go 79-78-3 (50%) through 11 weeks of action.

Trending Under

The non-conference ‘under’ trend has been a very strong lean this season. The ‘under’ has produced a 31-15-1 (67%) record this season and that includes a 5-1 (83%) mark last week and the lone ‘over’ took place in the Cardinals-Bengals affair, which was helped with a big second-half.

Week 12 presents four AFC-NFC matchups for Sunday and here’s my quick handicap.

New Orleans at Houston: After winning three of four games behind its defense, New Orleans has come back to life and surrendered 49, 34 and 47 points in its last three. The club fired coordinator Rob Ryan soon after the latest beating and has all but been eliminated from the NFC playoff race at 4-6. The ‘over’ has gone 3-0 during this span and I don’t expect the identity to change. Putting up points against a rejuvenated Texans’ defense won’t be easy but Bill O’Brien’s attack should have a field day against the league’s worst defense (31.5 PPG, 424 YPG). The Saints enter this game rested and bettors should note that New Orleans has watched the ‘over’ go 8-1 after the bye since coach Sean Payton arrived.

St. Louis at Cincinnati: Low total for this game (42) and hard to imagine St. Louis (17.9 PPG) helping the cause with its offense. The Bengals have shown the ability to put up points in bunches (26.6 PPG) but their defense (18.6 PPG) is still one of the best in the league despite giving up 34 to Arizona last week. The Rams have seen the ‘under’ go 7-3 this season, which includes a 3-0 mark vs. AFC teams.

Tampa Bay at Indianapolis: Tough game to handicap for both the side and total. The Colts have gone 3-0 with Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback but all of the games were tight. Tampa Bay is playing with confidence and has looked much better offensively (26.6 PPG) on the road. Statistically, Indy is still ranked near the bottom in yards allowed (392 YPG) and they haven’t been able to keep teams out of the end zone (23.6 PPG) at home.

Pittsburgh at Seattle: The blueprint for betting Seattle this season has come down to opposing quarterbacks. Against quality gunslingers, the Seahawks have allowed 27, 27, 27 and 39 points, all four losses. Versus the weaker signal callers, they’ve given up 38 points. Most would agree that Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger fits into the first group and he’s helped the Steelers average 28.4 PPG in games that he’s started and finished.

Divisional Rematches

N.Y. Giants at Washington: The ‘over’ 45 connected in Week 3 when these teams met one another as the Giants defeated the Redskins 32-21 but 29 of those 53 points came in the fourth quarter. This week’s total is higher (47) and it makes sense based on what we’ve seen from the pair recently. Washington is on a 4-1 run the ‘over’ and New York has leaned to the high side (6-3-1) this season. The Giants are off the bye and the ‘over’ has gone 6-2 in their last eight games with rest.

Miami at N.Y. Jets: The ‘under’ has cashed in five of the last six in this series. Miami’s offense has been a mess the last four weeks (14.5 PPG), which has produced a 3-1 ‘under’ mark. However, the Jets defense has looked average and beat up recently. The unit has held an opponent under 20 points in six straight games and that’s helped the ‘over’ go 5-1.

Arizona at San Francisco: The Cardinals ripped the 49ers 47-7 in Week 3 and the ‘over’ (45 ½) cashed early. Bettors are loading up on Arizona to roll again this week but make a note that San Francisco has played solid defense (15.2 PPG) and that effort has led to a 4-1 ‘under’ record.

System Reboot

Two angles in play this weekend and even though the results aren’t perfect, they’ve been profitable over the past few seasons.

Road Angle - Play the ‘over’ in any game when the visitor is playing their third consecutive road game

Buffalo will head to Kansas City on Sunday and this will be its third straight game as a visitor. The total is hovering between 41 and 42 points. This angle has gone 1-1 this season and is 38-18-1 (68%) the past 11 seasons.

Thursday System – Find out who played at home the previous Thursday and play the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue.

Jacksonville just hosted Tennessee in Week 11 and now meets San Diego at home on Sunday. This angle produced a 25-6-1 mark the past two seasons but has tempered off to a 4-6 record this season.

Under the Lights

Including this past Thursday’s result in the Bears-Packers game, total bettors have seen the ‘under’ go 24-11 (69%) this season. Looking at this week’s game, you’re going to have a hard time making a case for an ‘over’ bet in Week 12.

New England at Denver: Key offensive injuries to both teams have knocked this total from 47 ½ to 43 ½ points. New England (18.2 PPG) and Denver (18.3 PPG) are both ranked first and second respectively in scoring defense and they’ll both be facing short-handed units. Brock Osweiler gets the start again for Denver and he actually looked good against Chicago (20-of-27, 250 yards, 2 TDs) but Gary Kubiak elected to establish the run (36 attempts) on the road. The ‘over’ has gone 5-1 in the last six meetings but past history can be ignored for this situation due to the aforementioned injuries.

Baltimore at Cleveland: This game has pass written all over it for both the side and the total. This could be a good night to please the partner, perhaps catch a movie, maybe put up the Christmas decorations? For those jonesing for action, the first meeting between the pair went ‘over’ (42 ½) as Cleveland earned a 33-30 road win over Baltimore. Prior to that result, the ‘under’ was 9-2-1 in the last 12 encounters. It’s rare to see a team get into the twenties and I doubt that happens again here but I’ll be on the sidelines and you should too.

Fearless Predictions

It was nice to get back into the black last week ($190) and that momentum carried over to the holiday ($190) this past Thursday. We’re still down on the season ($750) but for what it’s worth, I like this week’s card a lot. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Pittsburgh-Seattle 45 ½

Best Under: N.Y. Giants-Washington 47 ½

Best Team Total: Over 20 ½ San Diego

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over Buffalo-Kansas City 32 ½
Over Miami-N.Y. Jets 33 ½
Under New England-Denver 52 ½

[StarDust Bum]

Week 12 Tip Sheet
November 27, 2015

Vikings at Falcons (-1, 45 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

The NFC Wild Card race is heating up as two teams in the mix meet up at the Georgia Dome. Minnesota (7-3 SU, 8-2 ATS) had its five-game winning streak snapped in last Sunday’s 30-13 blowout home loss to Green Bay, as running back Adrian Peterson was limited to 45 yards rushing following three consecutive 100-yard performances. The Vikings have covered in all three opportunities as a road underdog this season, while Mike Zimmer’s team is 7-1 ATS in its last eight chances as an away ‘dog since last October. Minnesota ripped Atlanta last season at home as five-point underdogs, 41-28 as the Vikings amassed 558 yards of offense.

It’s been a rough go for the Falcons (6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS) since a 5-0 start, losing four of the past five games, with each defeat coming to teams currently at .500 or worse. The most recent setback was a heartbreaker as Atlanta squandered a 14-0 lead in a 24-21 loss to Indianapolis last Sunday, failing to cover as a favorite for the sixth consecutive game. The offense has suffered during this cold stretch, as Atlanta hasn’t busted the 21-point mark in the last five contests, while eclipsing the 24-point barrier in each of the first five victories. The Falcons are nearly an automatic ‘under’ at the Georgia Dome, cashing in four of five games.

Buccaneers at Colts (-3, 46 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Six months ago, Tampa Bay (5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS) owned the top pick in the NFL Draft following a miserable 2-14 record. The Buccaneers may fall short of a playoff berth in the NFC this season, but have made plenty of strides, while winning three times away from Raymond James Stadium in five tries. The latest victory came in last Sunday’s 45-17 rout of the reeling Eagles as seven-point road underdogs, led by five touchdown passes from Jameis Winston. Tampa Bay has covered four of five times on the road this season, but has lost two of three times to AFC South competition.

Indianapolis (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS) began the season as pointspread poison, failing to cover its first four games. Since that cold start, the Colts have put together a 4-1 ATS record with all four covers coming in the underdog role. Chuck Pagano’s team has yet to cash as a favorite, posting an 0-5 ATS record, while the only two straight-up wins in this situation have come by a total of five points. Andrew Luck remains sidelined with a lacerated kidney, but veteran Matt Hasselbeck has yet to lose this season by winning all three of starts, including a 24-21 triumph at Atlanta last Sunday as 3 ½-point underdogs.

Bills at Chiefs (-6, 41 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

The AFC Wild Card race is tightening up with six teams owning records between 6-4 and 5-5, as two of those .500 squads meet in Kansas City. The Bills (5-5 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) had their two-game winning streak snapped at undefeated New England last Monday night in a 20-13 setback as seven-point underdogs. Buffalo suffered its first true road loss of the season in three tries as quarterback Tyrod Taylor failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time in 2015. Rex Ryan’s team has been successful in the underdog role, posting a 4-1-1 ATS record when receiving points, while going ‘under’ the total in their last three road games (excluding the Jacksonville loss in London).

Following a dreadful 1-5 start, things are looking up in Kansas City (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS) after Andy Reid’s squad won its fourth straight game last Sunday at San Diego. The Chiefs remain three games behind the Broncos in the AFC West, but Kansas City picked up consecutive road divisional victories over Denver and San Diego to reach the .500 mark for the first time since Week 2. In all four wins, the Chiefs have cashed each time, including three times in the favorite role, while laying their second-highest total of the season after giving up 10 points to the Bears in a Week 5 loss. Kansas City has beaten Buffalo each of the past two seasons on the road, but has lost three of the past four meetings with the Bills since 2008.

Dolphins at Jets (-3 ½, 42 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

The Dan Campbell era started with consecutive blowouts of the Titans and Texans to even Miami’s mark at 3-3. Since that mini-winning streak, the Dolphins (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS) have lost three of their past four games to fall below the .500 mark, capped off by a 24-14 setback to the Cowboys last week. Miami’s offense hasn’t helped the cause during this cold stretch, scoring 17 points or less in each of the past three losses, while getting outgained by nearly 200 yards in a Week 4 defeat in London to the Jets, 27-14.

New York (5-5 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) cashed plenty of tickets through the first five weeks, posting a 4-1 ATS record. However, Todd Bowles’ team has failed to cover in each of the past four games, while winning only one time in the past five contests, a 28-23 home victory over the Jaguars in Week 9. The Jets will be without cornerback Darrelle Revis on Sunday due to a concussion, which won’t help a defense that has allowed 22 points or more in each of the past five games (4-1 to the ‘over’).

Steelers at Seahawks (-3 ½, 46) – 4:25 PM EST

It’s unfair to say Pittsburgh (6-4 SU, 6-3-1 ATS) is running away with a Wild Card spot in the AFC, but the Steelers are in control of the first Wild Card position. Mike Tomlin’s club looks for its first three-game winning streak of the season following consecutive victories over the Raiders and Browns at home. Pittsburgh is fresh off the bye week, giving Ben Roethlisberger an extra week of rest after he relieved Landry Jones in the 30-9 blowout of Cleveland, throwing for 379 yards and three touchdowns. The Steelers have covered in three of four opportunities as a road underdog, including an outright win at San Diego in their only trip to the West Coast.

When will the two-time defending NFC champions break through? The Seahawks (5-5 SU, 3-6-1 ATS) have underachieved this season, but are in the mix for a playoff spot with six weeks left after winning three of their past four games. Seattle whipped San Francisco for the second time this season in a 29-13 rout as 14-point favorites last Sunday, but will be without running back Marshawn Lynch, who underwent sports hernia surgery. Since last season, the Seahawks have lost four of six games to AFC opponents, including a 27-24 overtime loss at Cincinnati in Week 5.

[StarDust Bum]

SuperContest Picks - Week 12
November 28, 2015

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry, and it’s all a 100% payback. Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,727 entries, which is an all-time record. The winner of this year's top prize will be given a check for $906,675, plus the top 50 finishers will collect cash prizes too.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.


Through 11 weeks of the season, the Top 5 Consensus Picks have gone 30-23-2 (56%) in the SuperContest.

Week 12

1) Tampa Bay (567)

2) Pittsburgh (531)

3) Minnesota (429)

4) Denver (415)

5) Cleveland (409)


SUPERCONTEST WEEK 12 MATCHUPS & ODDS

Away Team Selections Home Team Selections

Philadelphia (+2.5) 181 Detroit (-2.5) 237

Carolina (+1.5) 370 Dallas (-1.5) 292

Chicago (+8.5) 160 Green Bay (-8.5) 223

New Orleans (+3) 175 Houston (-3) 384

Minnesota (PK) 429 Atlanta (PK) 251

St. Louis (+8.5) 170 Cincinnati (-8.5) 198

Tampa Bay (+3.5) 567 Indianapolis (-3.5) 117

N.Y. Giants (-3) 385 Washington (+3) 289

Oakland (-1.5) 166 Tennessee (+1.5) 208

Buffalo (+6.5) 306 Kansas City (-6.5) 228

Miami (+3.5) 172 N.Y. Jets (-3.5) 108

San Diego (+4) 198 Jacksonville (-4) 204

Arizona (-10.5) 171 San Francisco (+10.5) 168

Pittsburgh (+3.5) 531 Seattle (-3.5) 177

New England (-3) 407 Denver (+3) 415

Baltimore (+2.5) 64 Cleveland (-2.5) 409

[StarDust Bum]

SNF - Patriots at Broncos
November 26, 2015


NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (10-0) at DENVER BRONCOS (8-2)

Sportsbook.ag Line: New England -3, Total: 43

It might not be the 17th edition of Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning, but it will be two of the AFC’s best going at it on Sunday Night Football when the Patriots travel to Denver to take on the Broncos.

The Patriots (10-0 SU, 5-2-3 ATS) continued their perfect season with a 20-13 victory at home over long-time foe Rex Ryan and the Buffalo Bills. New England played to a push ATS, their 3rd push of the season, all of them coming in home games as a 7-point favorite.

The Broncos (8-2 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) got back to their winning ways on Sunday afternoon, following a two-game losing streak after an 8-0 start to the season, with a 17-15 road win over the Bears. Brock Osweiler was excellent in his first career start for the injured Manning, completing 74% of his passes, averaging 10.7 YPA, and throwing for two TDs with no INTs.

Betting trends are a mixed bag in this one. New England is 14-9 ATS following a home win since the start of the 2012 season, but they’re also just 8-13 ATS in road games over that same time span. Both teams have had success ATS facing teams with winning records; Denver is 51-32 in home games since 1992, while the Patriots are 107-77 in all games over that same time span. Bill Belichick is 118-83 ATS against the AFC as New England head coach.

After finishing outside the Top 10 in total offense in 2014, the Patriots have returned to true offensive prominence so far this season, averaging 412.4 YPG (3rd in NFL), led by Tom Brady and a passing attack averaging 320.4 YPG (1st in NFL). Rob Gronkowski is a matchup nightmare all over the field and the Patriots will be hoping to get him into some open space in Sunday’s game.

The team will also need to find a way to make sure Brandon LaFell can be productive moving forward. While New England’s rushing offense has managed just 92 rushing YPG (28th in NFL), their run defense has been excellent, allowing 88.8 YPG (2nd in NFL), helping to balance out a unit that ranks 21st against the pass in YPG allowed.

Denver, which has had a Top 5 offense each of the last two years, including their top-ranked, record-setting unit of 2013, has, on the contrary, been carried by their defense thus far this year, allowing just 284.3 total YPG (1st in NFL). Denver’s pass defense has been superb, allowing just 190.6 passing YPG while recording 18 INTs (both 1st in NFL).

The Broncos have been one of the few teams Tom Brady has not had overwhelming success again, winning 5 of their 10 regular season meetings and two of their three postseason meetings since Brady became New England’s starting QB back in 2001. Brady has been held to a YPA of 6.77 in the matchup, his 3rd-worst mark against any team in the league as a starter.