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**StarDust Bum** · 11-24-2015, 05:36 PM

Close Calls - Week 11
November 24, 2015

Each week a handful of NFL games go down to the wire not only on the scoreboard but relative to the pointspread. Here is a look at last week’s outcome impacting fourth quarters in Week 11 of the NFL season with a handful of games that were very close to finishing with a different result.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) 19, Tennessee Titans 13: With the AFC South still wide open, this Thursday matchup between losing teams had some importance. After field goals early, Tennessee broke through with the first touchdown of the game on a Marcus Mariota scramble late in the third quarter, putting the Titans up by four heading into the fourth quarter. Early in the final frame, the Titans missed a field goal with a chance to pull away further but an interception ended a threat from the Jaguars on the next possession. After an exchange of punts, Tennessee fell just short of a first down in its own territory with less than four minutes to go, still holding that four-point lead to make backers of the Titans feel pretty comfortable of a push being the worst-case scenario.

Rashad Greene delivered a 63-yard punt return for the Jaguars to the Tennessee 5-yard line to completely change the game. On first down, the Jaguars connected for the touchdown and led by three, even with the spread with still over three minutes to go. On Tennessee’s first play from scrimmage, a solid gain turned disastrous with a fumble and the Jaguars had the ball right back. Jacksonville forced Tennessee to use its final timeouts and kicked a 36-yard field goal as the Jaguars posted 10 points with a net total of 14 offensive yards. Mariota and the Titans gave Tennessee a shot in the final minute driving to the Jacksonville 23-yard line, but a sack ended the game and gave Jacksonville a second straight improbable late comeback win, this time flipping the spread result as well.

Detroit Lions (+1) 18, Oakland Raiders 13: This matchup was not the offensive display many expected as the Lions led 9-0 at the half with three field goals. Oakland turned the tables in the third quarter with an 80-yard touchdown drive and took advantage of good field position due to Detroit penalties later in the quarter to add two field goals, leading 13-9. In the fourth quarter, the Lions answered with a touchdown drive to go back in front 16-13 on a game that featured a near-even spread. Oakland was pinned deep on its final two possessions, the second of which wound up resulting in a safety as Detroit held on for its second win in a row.

Dallas Cowboys (-2) 24, Miami Dolphins 14: The Cowboys got Tony Romo back last week and they also snapped a seven-game slide. After a 14-0 lead was produced with a touchdown late in the second quarter, Miami flipped the momentum scoring a touchdown in the final seconds of the first half to stay in the game. The Dolphins tied the game in the third quarter, but Dallas completed a touchdown drive on the first play of the fourth quarter to go back up by seven. Dallas added a field goal to seal the game later in the quarter as Miami did not threaten to score on three fourth quarter possessions as the Dallas defense finished a game for a great departure from the recent results with several blown late leads.

Indianapolis Colts (+3½) 24, Atlanta Falcons 21: The Falcons took a 21-7 lead early in the third quarter, but the Colts were back within seven heading into the fourth quarter. After that score, the teams traded turnovers and then later in the final frame, Matt Ryan had a terrible interception that was returned just six yards for the tying touchdown with the Colts sitting as an underdog that fell from as high as +6 down to +3½ by kickoff. Both teams punted on the next possessions and the Colts defense forced another punt from the Falcons with less than five minutes to go. Matt Hasselbeck converted a big third down just past midfield just after the two-minute warning and with less than a minute to go Adam Vinatieri hit the go-ahead field goal from 43 yards. Atlanta picked up 20 yards on its final possession, but ultimately the game ended with another interception.

Baltimore Ravens (-3) 16, St. Louis Rams 13: The Rams led 13-3 heading into the fourth quarter in a defensive battle, but the Ravens took advantage of a Todd Gurley fumble early in the final quarter to score a touchdown on a short field to get within three points. After forcing a punt, the Ravens were back in business after a 46-yard pass play and although they reached the St. Louis two-yard line, they had to settle for a tying field goal. The Rams got a shot to go in front late, but a 52-yard field goal was missed and then the Ravens did the same with just over a minute to go, missing from 51 yards. Case Keenum was sacked with about a minute to go to give Baltimore the ball back just past midfield and while Joe Flacco was injured on the final drive, Justin Tucker connected from 47 yards to put the Ravens in front, leaving most with a push although Baltimore was a slighter favorite early in the week.

Denver Broncos (-2½) 17, Chicago Bears 15: The line on this game jumped around quite a bit opening even and then shooting to Denver -2 before flipping as the Bears were briefly the favorite in the game late in the week. By Sunday, the Broncos were back to -1 and climbing, up to -2 and in the minutes before kickoff hitting -2½. It didn’t seem like it would matter as Denver took a 17-9 lead in the fourth quarter as Brock Osweiler completed his second touchdown drive of the game in his first start. With the help of a 15-yard penalty which would be theme of the fourth quarter in a game where the Broncos were penalized 118 yards compared to zero for the Bears, Chicago moved inside the Denver 10 with about 10 minutes to go. Down eight, Chicago opted to go for it on 4th-and-4 but wound up with an incompletion.

Denver reached the Chicago 44 on its next drive, but opted to punt and Jay Cutler fumbled on the next Chicago possession following being handed great field position on a pass interference penalty. Just after the two-minute warning, Denver had to punt again leaving the Bears with one more opportunity. Another pass interference call was the biggest play of the drive and the Bears were down to the Denver two-yard line with about 30 seconds to go. On third down, Jeremy Langford rushed into the end zone to put the Bears within two, but the rush attempt for the conversion was stopped which left mixed results on the game depending on the timing.

Seattle Seahawks (-14) 29, San Francisco 49ers 13: Seattle took a 20-0 lead in the second quarter, but the 49ers chipped away, making it a 10-point game twice in the third quarter. To start the final frame, the Seahawks got a big run from Thomas Rawls for a touchdown, going up 15 as the extra point try was blocked. San Francisco approached midfield on its next possession, but the Seattle defense dominated the final frame and the Seahawks held on for the heavy favorite cover.

Arizona Cardinals (-3½) 34, Cincinnati Bengals 31: Cincinnati led 14-7 at the half, but Arizona took control in the third quarter Sunday night, getting three touchdowns in about 10 minutes of game clock to lead 28-14, setting up a wild fourth quarter. Down 14, the Bengals aggressively went for it on fourth down early in the fourth quarter in field goal range. The Bengals got the yardage and found the end zone two plays later to get within seven. After Cincinnati got the ball back, a sack led to a fumble handing Arizona the ball on the Cincinnati 10-yard line. Arizona had to settle for a field goal, actually surviving a fumble as well to retain possession. With less than four minutes to go the Bengals completed a touchdown drive to get within three and Arizona came up just short on a key third-and-short play, needing to punt with less than three minutes to go.

The Bengals were able to put together a great drive to tie the game with a 43-yard field goal with just over a minute left on the clock. Arizona had plenty of time and a few quick Larry Fitzgerald catches, the Cardinals were to the edge of field goal range but without a timeout. Carson Palmer took a knee on the Cincinnati 27-yard line to burn the rest of the clock to set up a final field goal, but on the attempt an Arizona lineman clearly flinched. Had a false start been called a 10 second run off would have sent the game to overtime but instead Cincinnati was flagged 15 yards for simulating the snap count and the game-winning field goal was moved up to only 32 yards, giving the Cardinals the win, but not the cover which they at least still would have had a chance for in overtime.

New England Patriots (-7) 20, Buffalo Bills 13: The Monday night game featured some strange plays, but it was a tie at 10-10 early in the second half after a Bills touchdown followed a missed Patriots field goal on a drive that featured a controversial inadvertent whistle play. New England found the end zone a few minutes later to lead by seven and even with the spread on the game and after a Buffalo fumble, New England went up by 10 with a short field goal. Tom Brady was intercepted deep in Buffalo territory early in the fourth quarter and the Bills shifted the field position with the teams exchanging punts. With just over three minutes to go, the Bills were able to get a field goal to get back within seven and the Patriots were not able to run out the clock completely.

The final drive featured two replay reviews including a clear catch by Sammy Watkins on a fourth down play that was initially ruled an incompletion. The Bills still had a long ways to go with a sack eating much of the clock, but Watkins made a catch in bounds and rolled out of bounds to preserve at least a final heave from midfield. The officials ruled that he was down in bounds and the play was not reviewed as the game ended with that officiating error and left the spread result a push.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-24-2015, 05:37 PM

Books squeak out Week 11 win
November 23, 2015

Over the past few weeks the betting public has soured on the Seahawks while waiting for its dominant defense to show up again. It’s not hard to understand as they’ve thrown away lots of money on this Seattle squad that’s still searching for its true identity while posting a 2-6-1 record against the spread through its first nine games.

However, when the public gets backed into a corner and there are only three games to choose from in a time slot, their normal rationale goes out the window. In fact their whole opinion can rapidly change on a team if that team they’re sour on is playing a team they believe to be one of the worst in the league led by one of the worst perceived quarterbacks in the league.

That’s kind of back-story behind why several Las Vegas sports books saw so much one-sided action on the 49ers laying 14-points at home against the Blaine Gabbert led 49ers in Sunday’s Week 11 NFL action.

“We just couldn’t get an money on San Francisco,” said MGM Resorts VP of race and sports Jay Rood. “After having a decent morning session (win), we gave it all back with the three afternoon games and Seattle was the most popular of those.”

Seattle’s 29-13 win made them 8-0-1 against the 49ers in their last nine meetings and two of its three covers on the season came against San Francisco.

In the other two afternoon games, the public also had no problem laying 3-points with Kansas City at San Diego and Green Bay getting +1 at Minnesota. The Chiefs 33-3 win made it four straight covers against Chargers and was also its fourth straight cover on the season. The Chargers woes continue, especially against AFC teams where they have now gone 2-13 ATS over its last 15.

The Packers have kind of been put in that room of sour by the public after not covering its past four games, while the Vikings have covered eight straight since its season opening loss at san Francisco. The public is starting to believe in Minnesota’s defense, but they still came around slightly with Green Bay taking +1 in parlay action and the Packers rewarded them with one of its better all-around performances of the season where the running game miraculously showed up in its 30-13 win.

“We’re basically starting the day from scratch again,” said Rood as the Sunday night game between the Bengals and Cardinals (-3.5) was about to kick off.

Rood’s book got the decision they needed with Arizona blowing a late 10-point lead only to win 34-31 with a field goal in the final seconds. He said the public “was betting Cincinnati like crazy” at his books and they needed the Cardinals to cover.

Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick said his 19 books -- mostly located on the outskirts of town -- “needed the Bengals and UNDER combination for the best scenario” and that “the game was sitting as a four-way loser after the first 11 NFL games were posted final.”

Arizona has become one of the more popular public teams for bettors of the NFL just because they score in bunches averaging 34-points a game. But it’s obvious by action on the strip at Rood’s properties that there was still some love for the Bengals after not scoring a touchdown at home against the Texans in last Monday night’s loss.

For McCormick’s books, he had another element he was dealing with in the late stages of his Sunday risk management.

“We need the Nuggets. These late Warrior games are becoming a sweat every night.”

The Nuggets gave it all they had, but came up short at home in a 118-105 loss. Golden State covered the 12.5-point spread by a half-point much to the delight of the bettors and the W's are now a perfect 15-0 on the season.

Because of the popularity of the NBA early on, especially with Golden State, McCormick and his staff posted a prop asking what there will more of in the regular season: Warriors wins or 76ers losses? Philadelphia is currently 0-14. McCormick posted the number at pick ‘em.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-24-2015, 05:40 PM

Browns bench Manziel for off-field antics
November 24, 2015

BEREA, Ohio (AP) From starter to third-stringer. Johnny Manziel partied his way out of the lineup during Cleveland's bye week.

Browns coach Mike Pettine benched the polarizing quarterback on Monday for his off-field behavior, a move that could signal Manziel's days with the team are numbered.

Pettine said Josh McCown will start Monday night's game against Baltimore in place of Manziel, who was recently handed the starting job but couldn't keep it while the team had a week off.

Manziel's benching comes in the wake of a video surfacing of him partying last weekend in Texas. He had promised not to bring any embarrassment to the team during its week off, but Pettine said he was both disappointed and frustrated by Manziel's actions. The video showed Manziel holding a champagne bottle and rapping profane lyrics in a nightclub.

Pettine spoke with Manziel following practice Tuesday and informed him of his choice to bench him. Pettine said owner Jimmy Haslam and general manager Ray Farmer support his decision.

''Everyone in this organization wants what is best for Johnny just like we do for every player in our locker room. I'm especially disappointed in his actions and behavior because he has been working very hard,'' Pettine said. ''The improvements from last year to this year have been tremendous but he still has to consistently demonstrate that he has gained a good understanding of what it takes to be successful at the quarterback position on this level.

''It goes well beyond the field. We are going to continue to support him in every way possible, but at this point, we've decided it's best to go with Josh as the starter going forward.''

The 22-year-old Manziel has shown progress on the field during his second NFL season. However, despite saying he had learned from his past, Manziel, who spent 70 days during the offseason in a rehab facility specializing in alcohol and drug treatment, he has not shown the maturity the Browns are looking for from their quarterback.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-25-2015, 12:37 AM

Tech Trends - Week 12

THURSDAY, NOV. 22

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
PHILADELPHIA at DETROIT (FOX, 12:30 p.m. ET)

First time Eagles in Detroit on Thanksgiving since 1968, when Birds won in the mud 12-0 on four Sam Baker field goals! Eagles surprisingly "under" 7-3 this season. Lions 1-4 vs. line at Ford Field this year, and have lost 9 of last 11 on Thanksgiving (though have won and covered last two).
Tech Edge: "Under" and slight to Eagles, based on "totals" and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CAROLINA at DALLAS (CBS, 4:30 p.m. ET)

Panthers 14-0 SU, 10-3-1 last 14 regular season games since last December. Also 4-0 vs. spread this season on road. Dallas 2-7 vs., spread last nine at Arlington, and Cowboys no covers last four on Thanksgiving.
Tech Edge: Panthers, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CHICAGO at GREEN BAY (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)

Bears did win at GB in 2013 in the game they KO'd Rodgers, but have lost and failed to cover subsequent four vs. Pack and are 1-8 vs. line last nine in series. But Bears 4-2-1 vs. line last seven this year and Pack 1-4 vs. line last five in 2015.
Tech Edge: Slight to Bears, based on recent trends.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-25-2015, 12:41 AM

SUNDAY, NOV. 29

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NEW ORLEANS at HOUSTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Saints no covers last three this seson and now "over" 17-9-1 last 27 regular season games. Texans "over" 6-3-1 last 10.
Tech Edge: "Over" and Texans, based on "totals" and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
MINNESOTA at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Vikings have covered 8 of last 9, Falcons no covers last six this season. Note coach Mike Zimmer "over" 3-0-1 last four on road, though Vikes "under" 15-9-2 since last year. Falcons "under" 10-2-1 last 13.
Tech Edge: Vikings and "under," based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ST. LOUIS at CINCINNATI (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Marvin Lewis still 8-1-1 vs. line this season even after losses to Texans and Cardinals. Bengals 16-4-2 last 22 vs. spread at Paul Brown in regular season. Rams 1-4 vs. line away (all as underdog) this year.
Tech Edge: Bengals, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
TAMPA BAY at INDIANAPOLIS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Lovie Smith 4-1 vs. line away this season, 9-3 last 12 vs. spread as visitor. Also "under" 8-4 last 12 away games. Colts 0-3 as home chalk this season.
Tech Edge: Bucs and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
N.Y. GIANTS at WASHINGTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
G-Men bossing this series lately, wins and covers in last five meetings. Eli 6-1 vs. line last seven as visitor and also "over" 13-7 last 20 since mid 2014 season.
Tech Edge: Giants and "over," based on series and "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
OAKLAND at TENNESSEE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Raiders 3-2 vs. line away this year and also "over" 7-3 in 2015. Titans 3-2 vs. line at Nissan Stadium this season but were 1-12-1 previous 14 vs. spread as host.
Tech Edge: Slight to Raiders and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
BUFFALO at KANSAS CITY (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Andy Reid has won and covered last two years vs. Bills. Chiefs surging with four wins and covers in a row. After Monday vs. Patriots, Rex unbeaten last three vs. number after dropping previous four vs. line.
Tech Edge: Slight to Chiefs, based on recent series trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
MIAMI at N.Y. JETS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Note that visiting team has won seven straight meetings (6-1 vs. line; not counting London game earlier this season). Dolphins 6-1 SU and 5-2 vs. line last seven as series visitor. Jets no covers last four this season.
Tech Edge: Dolphins, based on series trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SAN DIEGO at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bolts now on 5-16 spread skid since mid 2014, though they have covered last two on road. Jags on 4-game cover streak, their longest since 2010!
Tech Edge: Slight to Jags, based on recent trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ARIZONA at SAN FRANCISCO (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)

Bruce Arians 28-13-1 in regular season since arriving with Big Red in 2013. Cards three straight covers vs. 49ers. Cards also "over" 8-2 this year. Six straight wins as series host for 49ers, though they're just 5-8 vs. line at Levi's since 2014.
Tech Edge: Cards and slight to "over," based on Big Reds trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
PITTSBURGH at SEATTLE (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Seahawks only 3-6-1 vs. line this year and only one cover last four as host. Steelers 4-1-1 vs. line last six away, and also "under" 11-2 last 13 since late last season.
Tech Edge: Steelers and slight to "under," based on recent and "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NEW ENGLAND at DENVER (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)

The last 4 reg.-season meetings between the pair went 'over' though 2013 AFC title game was 'under.' Belichick has won and covered last 4 reg.-season meetings vs. the Broncos, but is 1-5 SU/ATS in last six at Denver. Belichick also just 7-11 ATS last 18 as visitor, and only win since 2000 in Denver came against Tim Tebow.
Tech Edge: "Over" and Broncos, based on team and "totals" trends.

MONDAY, NOV. 30

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
BALTIMORE at CLEVELAND (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)

Ravens just 3-10 vs. spread last 13 regular season games and John Harbaugh is 6-1 SU and vs. line in seven games at Cleveland. Brownies no covers last four and "over" 7-3 this season, including 33-30 win at Baltimore on Oct. 11 (last Cleveland SU win).
Tech Edge: Ravens, based on series trends.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-25-2015, 01:07 PM

NFL oddsmakers stun with Cowboys as faves vs. 10-0 Panthers

“There will be a lot of folks scratching their heads at this line, but we feel very confident in opening the Cowboys as short chalk." - John Lester, Bookmaker.eu.

If you’re an NFL bettor, Week 12 is arguably the most wonderful week of the year. You get a triple-helping of football on Thanksgiving, and the middle of that pigskin sandwich features the most appealing matchup: Carolina at Dallas.

“How can that be?”, you might ask, with the Cowboys just 3-7 SU and ATS? Well, thanks to the mediocrity that reigns in the NFC East, Dallas is mathematically still in the playoff hunt. And Tony Romo & Co. will be hosting the conference’s lone unbeaten team in the Panthers.

The Cowboys finally got Romo back in the lineup for Week 11, and in doing so were able to end the seven-game losing streak that encapsulated all of Romo’s absence due to a broken collarbone. On Sunday, Dallas topped Miami 24-14 as a 2.5-point road favorite.

Cam Newton and Carolina (10-0 SU, 8-2 ATS) continued to shine on the field and at the betting window, dumping Washington 44-16 Sunday as a 7-point home chalk.

John Lester, senior lines manager for Bookmaker.eu, opened the game at Dallas -1.

“There will be a lot of folks scratching their heads at this line, but we feel very confident in opening the Cowboys as short chalk,” Lester said. “Tony Romo is back commanding the headlines, but Cam Newton is playing like the league MVP, and he should be fired up for another game with America watching. The Panthers have been nothing short of impressive this past month.”

Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports at Wynn Las Vegas, said there’s some sound logic to Dallas getting the nod on the opening line.

“The Panthers are an underdog for only the third time this year and to a 3-7 team. Why? A desperate situation for the Cowboys and an optimistic boost with their leader back,” Avello said.

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (N/A)

No doubt NBC had this Sunday night game circled in red, hoping for another epic battle between future Hall of Famers Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. But Manning’s status is uncertain due to a torn plantar fascia in his right foot that kept him out in Week 11.

Denver (8-2 SU, 5-5 ATS) rode backup QB Brock Osweiler and its stout defense to a 17-15 win Sunday at Chicago, snapping a two-game SU skid but falling short as a 2.5-point favorite.

The Patriots (9-0 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) still have some Week 11 work left to do, as they host Buffalo in the Monday nighter. They nearly fell from the ranks of the unbeaten in Week 10, needing a last-second field goal to beat the host New York Giants 27-26 as a 7-point fave.

With Manning’s status uncertain and the Pats playing Monday, oddsmakers had to hold off on setting the line, though Avello doesn’t expect Manning to play.

“This appeared to be the one of the best matchups of the year, but with Manning out, it's lost some steam,” he said. “I would guess the game plan for Denver is for Osweiler to make few mistakes (like he did at Chicago) and the defense to shut down the opponent. Good luck with that.”

Lester thinks the Broncos would be better off with Osweiler, but expects to make the Pats solid road favorites regardless.

“If Peyton Manning is playing, we may have to downgrade Denver’s value, as Osweiler is the better option right now,” he said. “If the Pats don’t suffer any major injuries tonight, we’ll look to make them between 5- and 6-point favorites.”

Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks (-4)

The two-time defending NFC champion Seahawks need to start stringing victories together if they hope to make a third straight Super Bowl appearance. Seattle (5-5 SU, 3-6-1 ATS) got a little breather Sunday, going off as 14-point home chalk against hapless San Francisco and posting a 29-13 victory.

Pittsburgh is also aiming to make some playoff noise. Banged-up quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers (6-4 SU, 6-3-1 ATS) are coming off a much-needed bye, after Roethlisberger keyed a 30-9 victory over Cleveland as a 7-point home favorite in Week 10.

“We moved Seattle to -5 shortly after opening,” Lester said. “You’ve got the Steelers coming off the bye and a fully healthy Big Ben, although he looked just fine in his relief appearance a couple of weeks ago. The Seahawks are starting to come alive, but you don’t get the feeling that they’ve really hit their stride yet.”

Avello made the line five from the start.

“Seattle is 3-2 at home, beating the feeble and losing to the competent,” he said. “The Steelers would be the semi-competent, and the line set accordingly at 5 points.”

Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons (-2)

Atlanta got out of the gate quickly with a 5-0 SU start, covering in four of those games, but has fallen on hard times since. The Falcons (6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS) have dropped three in a row and four of their last five, including Sunday’s 24-21 home loss laying 3.5 points against an Indianapolis team that didn’t have Andrew Luck.

Minnesota finally cooled off after a five-game SU and eight-game ATS winning streak. The Vikings (7-3 SU, 8-2 ATS), who had surged to the top of the NFC North and were giving one point at home to Green Bay, tumbled 30-13.

Avello pegs this contest as more key for Atlanta.

“The Falcons are in line for a playoff spot, but they are fading fast and I doubt they're around come January,” he said. “This is a must-win as they head on the road for three straight against teams playing well.”

Lester echoed Avello’s sentiment.

“The Falcons have looked awful since their hot start, which feels like eons ago. They really need this one for confidence, but I’m not so sure they can win,” he said. “It will be interesting to see if there’s any hangover for Minnesota. The Vikings’ lack of playmakers at the wideout position was overly glaring against Green Bay. They can’t afford to fall behind early here.”

**StarDust Bum** · 11-25-2015, 01:09 PM

Football bettors must react quickly to these NFL Week 12 odds

Eddie Lacy had 100 yards against the Vikings, and if he can put similar numbers up against the Bears, it will make life much easier for Rodgers.

Game to bet now

Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys (pick)

Greg Hardy is going up against his old team, and will be ramming his body into the Panthers’ left tackle 30 or more times. What are the chances he keeps his cool in this one? Hardy says it’s just another game, but no one believes anything he says, anyway.

On the surface, this seems like easy pickings for the 10-0 Panthers, even if Dallas has Tony Romo back calling signals. Dallas is 3-7 and only owner/GM-for-life Jerry Jones thinks his team has a chance of getting into the playoffs. One more loss should just about end that fantasy, and by a 2-1 margin early bettors believe that Carolina will deliver that defeat.

Game to wait on

Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks (-5)

Week 12 is upon us, and in the AFC the Steelers are one of just four AFC to have six wins. Pittsburgh is a solid 6-3-1 ATS this season but now starts a stretch of four tough games (Seattle, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Denver). The Steelers have the advantage of having their bye week before dealing with a cross country flight and the crazy atmosphere in Seattle.

The problem with jumping quickly is the awkward 5-point line - down from 5.5 at opening – which has been driven down by heavy money on the Steelers, perhaps due to the Seahawks’ inability to cover (3-6-1 ATS) this season.

Total to watch

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (47.5)

Everyone in Wisconsin can exhale now after Aaron Rodgers and the Packers put 30 points on the board in a surprisingly easy win at Minnesota. Best of all, Green Bay finally seems to have the semblance of a running game now that Eddie Lacy has emerged from the witness protection program.

Lacy had 100 yards against the Vikings, and if he can put similar numbers up against the Bears, it will make life much easier for Rodgers. The Over deserves a look here, based on Green Bay’s awakened offense, Chicago’s tendency to turn over the ball, and the Bears’ awful defensive play in division games this season (30 ppg allowed in NFC North games).

**StarDust Bum** · 11-25-2015, 01:10 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Thursday, November 26

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PHILADELPHIA (4 - 6) at DETROIT (3 - 7) - 11/26/2015, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
DETROIT is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 38-59 ATS (-26.9 Units) in November games since 1992.
DETROIT is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (10 - 0) at DALLAS (3 - 7) - 11/26/2015, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
CAROLINA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
CAROLINA is 69-46 ATS (+18.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 151-116 ATS (+23.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
CAROLINA is 78-43 ATS (+30.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 52-25 ATS (+24.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CHICAGO (4 - 6) at GREEN BAY (7 - 3) - 11/26/2015, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 169-120 ATS (+37.0 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 4-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 4-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, November 29

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NEW ORLEANS (4 - 6) at HOUSTON (5 - 5) - 11/29/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (7 - 3) at ATLANTA (6 - 4) - 11/29/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
MINNESOTA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
MINNESOTA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
MINNESOTA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ST LOUIS (4 - 6) at CINCINNATI (8 - 2) - 11/29/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 147-185 ATS (-56.5 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 147-185 ATS (-56.5 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 114-147 ATS (-47.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 23-44 ATS (-25.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games this season.
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
CINCINNATI is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CINCINNATI is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (5 - 5) at INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 5) - 11/29/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 59-34 ATS (+21.6 Units) in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY GIANTS (5 - 5) at WASHINGTON (4 - 6) - 11/29/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 33-59 ATS (-31.9 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 31-54 ATS (-28.4 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 77-106 ATS (-39.6 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 77-106 ATS (-39.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 77-106 ATS (-39.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 5-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 5-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (4 - 6) at TENNESSEE (2 - 8) - 11/29/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 38-75 ATS (-44.5 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 34-73 ATS (-46.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 18-40 ATS (-26.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 1-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 1-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
0 of 0 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (5 - 5) at KANSAS CITY (5 - 5) - 11/29/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 2-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 2-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (4 - 6) at NY JETS (5 - 5) - 11/29/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 4-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 3-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO (2 - 8) at JACKSONVILLE (4 - 6) - 11/29/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 88-63 ATS (+18.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 24-3 ATS (+20.7 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 2-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 2-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (8 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (3 - 7) - 11/29/2015, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (6 - 4) at SEATTLE (5 - 5) - 11/29/2015, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 72-50 ATS (+17.0 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ENGLAND (10 - 0) at DENVER (8 - 2) - 11/29/2015, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 51-32 ATS (+15.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 219-178 ATS (+23.2 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 219-178 ATS (+23.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 170-129 ATS (+28.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 107-77 ATS (+22.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 75-49 ATS (+21.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, November 30

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BALTIMORE (3 - 7) at CLEVELAND (2 - 8) - 11/30/2015, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games this season.
BALTIMORE is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
BALTIMORE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) against conference opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 3-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-2 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**StarDust Bum** · 11-25-2015, 01:11 PM

NFL

Week 12

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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 26

12:30 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 10 games
Detroit is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia

See more trends!
NOVEMBER 26, 4:30 PM
CAROLINA vs. DALLAS
Carolina is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Carolina is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Dallas is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina

See more trends!
NOVEMBER 26, 8:30 PM
CHICAGO vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games on the road
Green Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Green Bay's last 7 games

Sunday, November 29

See more trends!
NOVEMBER 29, 1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. ATLANTA
Minnesota is 5-16-1 SU in its last 22 games ,on the road
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing at home against Minnesota

See more trends!
NOVEMBER 29, 1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Buffalo's last 11 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Buffalo's last 13 games on the road
Kansas City is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
Kansas City is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Buffalo

See more trends!
NOVEMBER 29, 1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. TENNESSEE
Oakland is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Tennessee
Oakland is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tennessee's last 8 games at home

See more trends!
NOVEMBER 29, 1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games on the road
San Diego is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games
Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Diego

See more trends!
NOVEMBER 29, 1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. NY JETS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing NY Jets
Miami is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Jets last 6 games when playing Miami
NY Jets are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games

See more trends!
NOVEMBER 29, 1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Tampa Bay is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Indianapolis's last 17 games

See more trends!
NOVEMBER 29, 1:00 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. CINCINNATI
St. Louis is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games
Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Cincinnati is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games

See more trends!
NOVEMBER 29, 1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. HOUSTON
New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
New Orleans is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games

See more trends!
NOVEMBER 29, 1:00 PM
NY GIANTS vs. WASHINGTON
NY Giants are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing Washington
NY Giants are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Washington is 2-7 SU in their last 9 games when playing at home against NY Giants

See more trends!
NOVEMBER 29, 4:05 PM
ARIZONA vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Arizona is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
San Francisco is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona

See more trends!
NOVEMBER 29, 4:25 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games
Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Seattle is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

See more trends!
NOVEMBER 29, 8:30 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. DENVER
New England is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Denver is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home
Denver is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Monday, November 30

See more trends!
NOVEMBER 30, 8:30 PM
BALTIMORE vs. CLEVELAND
Baltimore is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cleveland's last 10 games

**StarDust Bum** · 11-25-2015, 01:13 PM

Thursday's Top Action
November 25, 2015

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (4-6) at DETROIT LIONS (3-7)
Kickoff: Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Even, Total: 45.5

The Eagles swoop into the Motor City Thursday hoping to feast on the Lions in a Thanksgiving matchup.

Philadelphia (4-6 SU and ATS) is still in the hunt for a playoff spot in the chaotic NFC East, where it remains one game out of first place despite having lost three out of its past four games. Meanwhile, Detroit (3-7 SU and ATS) has enjoyed relative success since its Week 9 bye, upsetting the Packers and knocking off the Raiders to earn its only pair of regulation wins on the season.

The Eagles have had the upper hand over the Lions in recent history, beating them 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS since 1992. Their last meeting occurred in 2013, in a game that saw Philly rally from a 14-6, fourth-quarter deficit to win 34-20. Both teams enjoy favorable trends to cover the spread in this week's game. The Eagles are 9-1 ATS coming off a blowout loss (21+ points) since 1992, while road teams are 71-32 in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the past 10 seasons after being beaten by the spread by 21+ points total in their past three games.

Meanwhile, underdogs like Detroit are 169-107 ATS since 1983 in games involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG) after allowing 14 points or fewer in their previous game, and the Lions' opponent is 3-13 ATS in road games versus poor teams (outscored by 6+ PPG on the season) in the second half of the season since 1992.

Philadelphia is likely to once again start QB Mark Sanchez in place of top QB Sam Bradford (concussion), who is doubtful to play Thursday. The team may be missing a few other offensive pieces as well, as RB Ryan Mathews (concussion) and TE Zach Ertz (concussion) are both listed as questionable. The Lions are relatively healthy at this point in the season, though DT Gabe Wright (ankle) is questionable to play on Thursday.

Philadelphia has been pedestrian on both sides of the ball this season, a stat reflected in its middle-of-the-road 4-6 record. The team's offense has scored an average of 22.9 PPG (15th in NFL), while totaling 347.4 YPG (8th in league) and coughing up 20 turnovers (5th-worst in league). QB Mark Sanchez began hot in his first start of the season last week, connecting with WR Josh Huff for a 39-yard TD in the first four minutes. He quickly came back down to earth though, ending the day 26-of-41 for 261 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions. Sanchez is 1-0 in his career against Detroit, throwing for 323 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT with the Jets.

RB DeMarco Murray, the team's leading rusher, ran 13 times for 64 yards, adding four catches for 27 yards and also lost a fumble. The Eagles will be hoping for the return of RB Ryan Mathews, who has gained 5.7 yards per carry compared to Murray's 3.7, and has scored in four of his past five games. Philadelphia's defense has allowed as many points as its offense scores, 22.9 PPG (16th in the NFL), though the squad has struggled recently, surrendering 30.7 PPG in the past three games.

Tampa Bay was able to dominate the defense last week, scoring 45 points and allowing QB Jameis Winston to throw five touchdowns and RB Doug Martin to gain 235 yards on the ground. To the Eagles' credit, they have excelled at creating turnovers with 21 (3rd in league), and have limited opposing runners to score just three touchdowns all season (2nd in NFL).

Detroit has similarly been balanced on both sides of the ball this season -- unfortunately, the team is toward the bottom of the league in both instances. The Lions' offense is the fourth-lowest scoring bunch in the league, averaging 18.5 PPG and 336.5 YPG (25th in NFL), while turning the ball over the second-most of any team, a cringe-worthy 21 times. The team has had to lean heavily on QB Matthew Stafford, who has thrown the football 412 times (4th-most in league), scoring 16 TD (15th in league) but also giving up 13 interceptions (29th in NFL) along the way. Stafford is 1-1 in his career against the Eagles, averaging an underwhelming 45.7% completion rate, 229.5 YPG, and managing just one touchdown in two games.

WR Calvin Johnson has looked more human than his nickname "Megatron" this season, leading the team in receptions and yards, but scoring just three times and averaging the lowest yards per reception of his career at 14.0 yards per catch. Meanwhile, Detroit's running corps is the worst in the league. RBs Ameer Abdullah, Joique Bell and Theo Riddick are averaging the fewest combined rushing attempts (20.7) and yards per game (71.1), scoring just three times (28th in NFL) and averaging a paltry 3.4 yards per attempt (30th in NFL).

The Lions' defense hasn't fared much better, giving opponents 27.4 PPG (4th-worst in league) and proving particularly susceptible to the run, giving up a league-worst 15 touchdowns on the ground.

CAROLINA PANTHERS (10-0) at DALLAS COWBOYS (3-7)
Kickoff: Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Carolina -1, Total: 46

The Cowboys are hoping for a Thanksgiving miracle as they host the undefeated Panthers on Thursday afternoon.

Carolina (10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS) continued its domination tour last week, dismantling Washington 44-16 in a game that saw QB Cam Newton toss five touchdowns to five different receivers. Struggling Dallas (3-7 SU and ATS) hopes its troubles are over now that QB Tony Romo has returned, with the team winning their first game since Week 2 last Sunday. The Cowboys have held the advantage over the Panthers all-time, going 9-3 SU and 6-5 ATS. Newton and Romo last met in 2012, with Dallas fending off a Carolina comeback in eking out a 19-14 victory.

Betting trends largely favor the Panthers this week, as they are 16-2 ATS all-time after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better, and under head coach Ron Rivera the squad is 15-4 ATS when playing against a bad team (25% to 40% win pct.). Bettors looking to wager on the Cowboys can find a few positive trends to hang their hats on. The team is 15-5 ATS against opponents who force 2.5+ turnovers per game in the second half of the season since 1992, and 17-6 ATS at home after having lost three of the past four games in the same time period.

Carolina is monitoring several injuries going into this week's game, including DE Charles Johnson (hamstring), G Andrew Norwell (hamstring), WR Philly Brown (shoulder), and CB Charles Tillman (knee), who are all listed as questionable. Dallas is finally starting to get healthy now that Romo and WR Dez Bryant have returned from protracted injuries. Nevertheless, they may be without WR Brice Butler (hamstring), CB Morris Claiborne (hamstring) and DE Ryan Russell (abdominal), who are questionable to play Thursday.

As one would expect of a 10-0 team, Carolina has excelled on both sides of the ball this season. Captained by QB Cam Newton, the team's offense has scored 29.9 PPG (3rd in NFL) and generated 354.2 total YPG (15th in league). Newton doesn't attempt many passes (30.6 attempts per game, 27th in NFL), but connects when it counts, recording 20 passing TD (6th in league). Led by RB Jonathan Stewart, and supplemented by Newton and FB Mike Tolbert, the Panthers run more than any other team (34.2 attempts per game), tallying 140 YPG on the ground and 11 rushing touchdowns (both good for 5th-best in NFL).

With last year's rookie phenom WR Kelvin Benjamin out all this season on the IR, Newton has managed to excel with a receiving corps patched together from a star tight end (Greg Olsen), scrappy newcomers (WRs Philly Brown and Devin Funchess), and tossed-away veterans (WRs Ted Ginn, and Jerricho Cotchery). The team has been hitting its stride in recent weeks, averaging 36.0 PPG and 366 YPG in its past three games. The Panthers' defense has been fierce as well, giving up just 19.1 PPG (5th in league) and 322.8 total YPG (4th in NFL), while leading the league in forced turnovers at 2.5 per game.

In the wake of injuries to its star skill players, the Dallas offense has struggled on the season, averaging only 19.0 PPG (27th in league) and 343.0 total YPG (20th in NFL). However, with No. 1 QB Tony Romo under center, the team averages a more respectable 23.7 PPG and 393.7 YPG. He was understandably a bit rusty in his first game back last week against the Dolphins, but still managed to secure the win while completing 18-of-28 passes for 227 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Cowboys fans will hope Romo's good luck streak against the Panthers continues on Thursday, as he's 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) in his career in this matchup, averaging a 68% completion rate for 252 YPG and tallying three touchdowns against his opponent.

Among the few relative bright spots for the Dallas offense has been veteran RB Darren McFadden, who has emerged at front of the depleted Cowboys' running corps to produce three 100+ yard games in his past five contests, though he's managed only a single rushing touchdown during the same period. Not surprisingly, the most reliable component of the team has been 33-year-old TE Jason Witten, who leads the squad in targets, receptions, and yards.

Defensively, Dallas is giving up only 22.8 PPG and 336 total YPG this season, and those numbers jump to 28.2 PPG and 373 total YPG at home. Despite being on the field for an average time of just 26:16 per game, the unit is still giving up 104 rushing YPG on 4.2 YPC and 231 passing YPG on 7.0 YPA and 64% completions. The Cowboys defense didn't force a single turnover in three October games, but has four takeaways over the past four contests, and will need to create some mistakes to knock off the top team in the NFC.

CHICAGO BEARS (4-6) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (7-3)
Kickoff: Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Green Bay -9, Total: 47

The latest chapter in the NFL’s oldest rivalry will play out on Thanksgiving night when the Bears and Packers square off at Lambeau Field.

Chicago (4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS) saw its two-game win streak end at the hands of the Broncos on Sunday in a 17-15 affair, though the team did cover for the sixth time in seven games after starting the season 0-3 ATS. The Packers (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) got back in the SU and ATS win columns following three-game losing skids in both categories with a 30-13 road victory over the Vikings, re-claiming first place in the NFC North by virtue of the head-to-head win. The long-time foes will square off for the 192nd time, with Chicago holding the narrowest of advantages, 93-92-6. The Packers won their encounter 31-23 back in Week 1 despite allowing a season-high 189 rushing yards (also the Bears’ offensive season high).

Betting trends for the game favor the Packers, who are 35-13 SU and 31-16-1 ATS against the Bears since 1992, including 4-1 SU & ATS since the start of the 2013 season. Green Bay is 6-0 ATS following a road win since the start of last season, and 9-2 ATS following any road game in this same timeframe. Also, head coach Mike McCarthy is 40-19 ATS against NFC North opponents as head coach of the Packers, including 8-1 ATS in home games against bad teams (25% to 40% win pct.) in the second half of the season.

Chicago, which is 9-0 ATS since 1992 off a home cover where the team lost as an underdog, comes in dealing with injuries to key offensive players, including RB Matt Forte (knee), WR Alshon Jeffrey (groin), WR Eddie Royal (knee) and RB Ka’Deem Carey (concussion), all of whom are questionable, as is S Antrel Rolle (ankle). Green Bay comes in with a near clean sheet, with the exception of WR Ty Montgomery (ankle), who is listed as questionable.

Chicago's offense hasn't been great this season with only 21.4 PPG but has gained a respectable 352 total YPG. The team is nearly 50/50 in play selection with the Bears throwing 34 times per game for 240 YPG on 7.0 YPA while running for 112 YPG on 3.9 YPC. But Chicago's ground attack stalled last week with a season-low 86 rushing yards while allowing a season-high 170 rushing yards to the Broncos. While Veteran QB Jay Cutler has had his moments this season with 257 passing YPG, 13 TD and 8 INT, he is just 1-12 SU (2-11 ATS) against the Packers in his career with 15 touchdowns and 23 picks.

The Bears defense has produced mixed results so far this season, allowing only 217.2 YPG through the air (4th in NFL), but surrendering 123.7 YPG on the ground (25th in NFL). On a per-carry basis, Chicago is allowing 4.6 YPC (T-28th in NFL), which good news for Green Bay’s run game.

Packers ball carriers are currently averaging a pedestrian 110 rushing YPG (16th in NFL) on 4.2 YPC (12th in league), but racked up 124 yards last Sunday, which marked the first triple-digit rushing output since 133 yards versus San Diego on Oct. 18. Star QB Aaron Rodgers has failed to re-capture his MVP-winning form from last year, entering Thanksgiving averaging 232.3 passing YPG (22nd in the league), and on pace to set a new career low for passing YPA, which currently stands at 7.15 (20th in the league), more than one yard per attempt less than his 2014 and 2013 performances. But Green Bay is 13-3 SU and ATS against the Bears with Aaron Rodgers, who has thrown for 243 YPG, 34 TD and only 10 INT in these 16 meetings.

The Packers have a bend-but-don't-break defense that gives up gobs of yardage (369 total YPG), but limits opponents to 19.8 PPG. The run-stop unit is allowing 114 YPG on 4.3 YPA while the passing defense gives up 255 YPG on 7.0 YPA.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-25-2015, 01:15 PM

Total Talk - Thanksgiving
November 25, 2015

After watching the ‘over’ go 6-0 the two previous seasons on Thanksgiving Day, total bettors saw the ‘under’ produce profits with a 2-1 record last season.

This week’s card is a tough handicap with every total hovering around 46 points. Also, all six teams in action on Thursday are represented by the NFC and only one of them has leaned to the ‘over’ this season, which is surprisingly Carolina (6-3-1).

Let’s take a closer look at the holiday totals.

Philadelphia at Detroit (FOX, 12:30 p.m. ET)

The opening game for Thursday looks like the oddsmakers are setting an ‘over’ trap for bettors. The total (46) appears to be too low for the Eagles and Chip Kelly’s fast-paced attack but if you look at the form of both clubs involved, it’s a fair line.

Philadelphia is averaging 22.9 points per game this season which is almost a touchdown drop-off (29.6 PPG) from last season and its ranked 23rd in red zone conversions. The quarterback play has been inconsistent and with Mark Sanchez taking over for Sam Bradford, it’s been worse.

Now the Eagles face a Lions team that has changed their identity the last few weeks with a ball-control style. Detroit has rattled off two wins and managed to slow down two of the better passing offenses this season in the Packers and Raiders. In the wins, the Lions ran the ball 26 and 31 times the last two weeks and controlled the clock. Knowing that everybody wins the possession battle against the Eagles, it’s easy to see Detroit sticking to this game plan that has produced back-to-back victories.

Defensively, you can make a case for the ‘over’ based on the form of the Eagles alone. They’ve allowed 30.7 PPG in their last three games and they just made Buccaneers rookie QB Jameis Winston look incredible last Sunday.

Philadelphia has seen the ‘under’ go 7-3 this season and of the three ‘over’ winners, only last week’s result versus Tampa Bay was never in doubt. The obvious bet is to lean high with the Birds but if you do go that route, then expect to work a full 60 minutes to cash.

Detroit has been a great ‘over’ investment on Turkey Day, going 6-2 to the high side the last eight seasons. The lowest combined points scored during this span was 42. The Eagles played on Thanksgiving last season and they looked good, beating Dallas 33-10.

Carolina at Dallas (CBS, 4:30 p.m. ET)

Of the three games on tap for Thursday, this is the must-see matchup and the game is hovering at a pick ‘em at most betting shops. From a total perspective, the opener (46 ½) seemed too high but Carolina’s offense was coming off a season-high 44-point performance and Dallas is obviously better offensively with Tony Romo under center. The number has been adjusted and is sitting at 45 ½ as of Wednesday morning and I believe it could go lower.

Even with Romo back, the Cowboys are a run-first team. They ran the ball 38 times for 179 yards in last week’s win over Miami and head coach Jason Garrett knows his team is more successful when they run the ball. Dallas should have its hands full trying that approach against Carolina, who is only allowing 19.1 PPG and 94.5 YPG on the ground, ranked sixth and eighth respectively.

Similar to Dallas, the Panthers like to run the ball too and they lead the league with 34.2 attempts per game. Dallas has played well defensively the past couple weeks, only allowing 24 points but Carolina has proven that it can score on the road (27.6 PPG) this season.

The Panthers have only had three ‘under’ tickets connect this season, two of them occurring on the road. Dallas has seen the ‘over’ go 3-2 at home but a couple of those winners (Giants, Eagles) were helped with late surges.

Dallas has seen the ‘over’ cash in two of its last three games on the holiday but is coming off a 33-10 loss to the Eagles last season. The Panthers have never played on Thanksgiving Day.

Chicago at Green Bay (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)

The Packers defeated the Bears 31-23 in Week 1 and the combined 54 points jumped ‘over’ the closing total of 48 ½. This was the fourth straight game that the pair played to the high side and most of the effort was coming from Green Bay’s offense during this span (39.3 PPG). This game is expected to be more of a slugfest than a shootout and it’s hard to argue for the latter despite the recent history between these clubs.

Green Bay has been a solid ‘under’ bet (7-3) all season and even though it has Aaron Rodgers at QB, the Pack finally got the ground game back on track last week with Eddie Lacy. After starting 0-3, Chicago has produced a 4-3 record and you can see the team taking the shape of its head coach John Fox. The defense has buckled down during this stretch (20.9 PPG) and their doing it without a lot of big names.

The Bears will have running back Matt Forte in the lineup and I believe Fox will try to run on the Packers, who have been suspect (114 YPG) against the run this season. The Broncos and Panthers both ran over Green Bay and Rams rookie Todd Gurley went nuts (159 yards) earlier in the season. With that being said, I expect Chicago to move the ball but an issue has been scoring. The Bears haven’t been able to close drives, posting more field goals (23) than touchdowns (21) this season.

This will be the 10th season that the NFL will have a primetime game on Thanksgiving. In the first nine matchups, the ‘under’ has gone 5-4. For those wondering, home teams have produced a 6-3 record in those nine games. Chicago played at Detroit on the holiday last season and was beat 34-17 and Green Bay made the Turkey Day trip to Ford Field in the 2013 season and was also humbled, losing 40-10 to the Lions.

Low temperatures expected for this matchup and there is a possibility of snow at Lambeau Field by kickoff.

Fearless Predictions

As I’ve said before in past pieces on this holiday, if you’re reading this then you’re probably betting and for that, be thankful that you can. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck and Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours!

Best Over: Philadelphia-Carolina 45 ½

Best Under: Chicago-Green Bay 46 ½

Best Team Total: Under 27 ½ Green Bay

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over Philadelphia-Carolina 36 ½
Under Carolina-Dallas 55
Under Chicago-Green Bay 55 ½

**StarDust Bum** · 11-26-2015, 01:17 AM

NFL ATS

NFL > (261) OAKLAND@ (262) TENNESSEE | 2015-11-29 13:00:00 - 2015-11-29 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE against the spread in All games when playing against a team with a losing record
The record is 1 Wins and 10 Losses for the last two seasons (-10 units)

NFL > (261) OAKLAND@ (262) TENNESSEE | 2015-11-29 13:00:00 - 2015-11-29 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE against the spread in All games against conference opponents
The record is 3 Wins and 14 Losses for the last two seasons (-12.4 units)

NFL > (253) MINNESOTA@ (254) ATLANTA | 2015-11-29 13:00:00 - 2015-11-29 13:00:00
Play ON MINNESOTA against the spread in All games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 25 Wins and 8 Losses for the last three seasons (+16.2 units)

NFL > (269) ARIZONA@ (270) SAN FRANCISCO | 2015-11-29 16:05:00 - 2015-11-29 16:05:00
Play AGAINST SAN FRANCISCO against the spread in All games versus division opponents
The record is 1 Wins and 9 Losses for the last two seasons (-8.9 units)

----------------------

NFL MONEYLINE

NFL > (261) OAKLAND@ (262) TENNESSEE | 2015-11-29 13:00:00 - 2015-11-29 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE using money line in All games in weeks 10 through 13
The record is 1 Wins and 9 Losses for the last three seasons (-13 units)

NFL > (271) PITTSBURGH@ (272) SEATTLE | 2015-11-29 16:25:00 - 2015-11-29 16:25:00
Play ON SEATTLE using money line in All games off a division game
The record is 13 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+12.1 units)

NFL > (107) CAROLINA@ (108) DALLAS | 2015-11-26 16:30:00 - 2015-11-26 16:30:00
Play ON CAROLINA using money line in All games when playing against a team with a losing record
The record is 14 Wins and 3 Losses for the last three seasons (+14.8 units)

NFL > (267) SAN DIEGO@ (268) JACKSONVILLE | 2015-11-29 13:00:00 - 2015-11-29 13:00:00
Play ON SAN DIEGO using money line in All games against AFC South division opponents
The record is 22 Wins and 6 Losses for the since 1992 (+20.95 units)

NFL > (273) NEW ENGLAND@ (274) DENVER | 2015-11-29 20:30:00 - 2015-11-29 20:30:00
Play ON NEW ENGLAND using money line in All games when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 14 Wins and 2 Losses for the last two seasons (+12.1 units)

NFL > (107) CAROLINA@ (108) DALLAS | 2015-11-26 16:30:00 - 2015-11-26 16:30:00
Play ON CAROLINA using money line in All games after 2 or more consecutive wins
The record is 18 Wins and 4 Losses for the last three seasons (+16.05 units)

NFL > (273) NEW ENGLAND@ (274) DENVER | 2015-11-29 20:30:00 - 2015-11-29 20:30:00
Play ON NEW ENGLAND using money line in All games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 15 Wins and 2 Losses for the last two seasons (+12.8 units)

NFL > (259) NY GIANTS@ (260) WASHINGTON | 2015-11-29 13:00:00 - 2015-11-29 13:00:00
Play AGAINST NY GIANTS using money line in All games in weeks 10 through 13
The record is 31 Wins and 56 Losses for the since 1992 (-48.5 units)

NFL > (257) TAMPA BAY@ (258) INDIANAPOLIS | 2015-11-29 13:00:00 - 2015-11-29 13:00:00
Play ON INDIANAPOLIS using money line in All games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 15 Wins and 4 Losses for the last two seasons (+12.1 units)

NFL > (251) NEW ORLEANS@ (252) HOUSTON | 2015-11-29 13:00:00 - 2015-11-29 13:00:00
Play AGAINST HOUSTON using money line in All games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 11 Wins and 22 Losses for the last three seasons (-23.05 units)

NFL > (271) PITTSBURGH@ (272) SEATTLE | 2015-11-29 16:25:00 - 2015-11-29 16:25:00
Play ON PITTSBURGH using money line in All games in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points
The record is 62 Wins and 29 Losses for the since 1992 (+34.85 units)

----------------------------

NFL TEASER

NFL > (275) BALTIMORE@ (276) CLEVELAND | 2015-11-30 20:30:00 - 2015-11-30 20:30:00
Play ON BALTIMORE in a teaser in All games as a road underdog of 3 or less in a 6 point teaser
The record is 39 Wins and 3 Losses for the since 1992 (+35.7 units)

-----------------------------

NFL FIRST HALF

NFL > (255) ST LOUIS@ (256) CINCINNATI | 2015-11-29 13:00:00 - 2015-11-29 13:00:00
Play ON ST LOUIS ?>in the first halfin Road games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 11 Wins and 1 Losses for the last two seasons (+9.9 units)

NFL > (255) ST LOUIS@ (256) CINCINNATI | 2015-11-29 13:00:00 - 2015-11-29 13:00:00
Play ON ST LOUIS ?>in the first halfin All games in November games
The record is 11 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+9.9 units)

NFL > (107) CAROLINA@ (108) DALLAS | 2015-11-26 16:30:00 - 2015-11-26 16:30:00
Play ON CAROLINA ?>in the first halfin Road games against NFC East division opponents
The record is 18 Wins and 4 Losses for the since 1992 (+13.6 units)

NFL > (263) BUFFALO@ (264) KANSAS CITY | 2015-11-29 13:00:00 - 2015-11-29 13:00:00
Play ON BUFFALO ?>in the first halfin All games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest
The record is 19 Wins and 5 Losses for the since 1992 (+13.5 units)

NFL > (265) MIAMI@ (266) NY JETS | 2015-11-29 13:00:00 - 2015-11-29 13:00:00
Play AGAINST MIAMI ?>in the first halfin All games versus division opponents
The record is 1 Wins and 9 Losses for the last two seasons (-8.9 units)

-------------------------

NFL TOTALS

NFL > (107) CAROLINA@ (108) DALLAS | 2015-11-26 16:30:00 - 2015-11-26 16:30:00
Play OVER CAROLINA on the totalin Road games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 8 Overs and 0 Unders for the last two seasons (+8 units)

NFL > (273) NEW ENGLAND@ (274) DENVER | 2015-11-29 20:30:00 - 2015-11-29 20:30:00
Play OVER DENVER on the totalin All games in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points
The record is 36 Overs and 11 Unders for the since 1992 (+23.9 units)

NFL > (255) ST LOUIS@ (256) CINCINNATI | 2015-11-29 13:00:00 - 2015-11-29 13:00:00
Play UNDER CINCINNATI on the totalin All games as a home favorite of 4 to 6 points vs. the 1rst half line
The record is 1 Overs and 12 Unders for the since 1992 (+10.9 units)

NFL > (271) PITTSBURGH@ (272) SEATTLE | 2015-11-29 16:25:00 - 2015-11-29 16:25:00
Play UNDER PITTSBURGH on the totalin All games as an underdog
The record is 0 Overs and 7 Unders for the this season (+7 units)

NFL > (271) PITTSBURGH@ (272) SEATTLE | 2015-11-29 16:25:00 - 2015-11-29 16:25:00
Play UNDER PITTSBURGH on the totalin All games as an underdog vs. the 1rst half line
The record is 0 Overs and 7 Unders for the this season (+7 units)

NFL > (265) MIAMI@ (266) NY JETS | 2015-11-29 13:00:00 - 2015-11-29 13:00:00
Play UNDER NY JETS on the totalin Home games when playing against a team with a losing record
The record is 18 Overs and 44 Unders for the since 1992 (+24.2 units)

NFL > (251) NEW ORLEANS@ (252) HOUSTON | 2015-11-29 13:00:00 - 2015-11-29 13:00:00
Play UNDER NEW ORLEANS on the totalin Road games against AFC South division opponents
The record is 0 Overs and 8 Unders for the since 1992 (+8 units)

NFL > (265) MIAMI@ (266) NY JETS | 2015-11-29 13:00:00 - 2015-11-29 13:00:00
Play UNDER NY JETS on the totalin All games as a home favorite of 2 to 3.5 points vs. the 1rst half line
The record is 11 Overs and 31 Unders for the since 1992 (+18.9 units)

NFL > (261) OAKLAND@ (262) TENNESSEE | 2015-11-29 13:00:00 - 2015-11-29 13:00:00
Play UNDER TENNESSEE on the totalin All games when playing against a team with a losing record
The record is 3 Overs and 14 Unders for the last three seasons (+10.7 units)

NFL > (251) NEW ORLEANS@ (252) HOUSTON | 2015-11-29 13:00:00 - 2015-11-29 13:00:00
Play UNDER NEW ORLEANS on the totalin All games as an underdog vs. the 1rst half line
The record is 0 Overs and 7 Unders for the last two seasons (+7 units)

NFL > (263) BUFFALO@ (264) KANSAS CITY | 2015-11-29 13:00:00 - 2015-11-29 13:00:00
Play UNDER BUFFALO on the totalin All games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points
The record is 0 Overs and 7 Unders for the last two seasons (+7 units)

NFL > (269) ARIZONA@ (270) SAN FRANCISCO | 2015-11-29 16:05:00 - 2015-11-29 16:05:00
Play UNDER SAN FRANCISCO on the totalin Home games against conference opponents
The record is 1 Overs and 9 Unders for the last two seasons (+7.9 units)

**StarDust Bum** · 11-26-2015, 01:19 AM

Public Fades - Week 12
November 25, 2015

Heading into Thanksgiving weekend, 23 of 32 teams in the NFL own records of 5-5 or worse with limited elite squads at the top of the food chain. Cincinnati belonged to that elite club two weeks ago with a perfect 8-0 record prior to back-to-back losses to Houston and Arizona, but the Bengals are still in control of the AFC North. Meanwhile, the Giants are atop the NFC East in spite of a 5-5 mark, as the Eagles and Redskins are one game behind and the Cowboys are ready to make a charge with Tony Romo back under center.

The Bengals and Giants are two of the biggest teams that the public will be backing on Sunday, as Cincinnati hosts struggling St. Louis while New York goes for the season sweep of Washington. We’ll take a look at why you should back the underdogs in this week’s edition of "Public Fades."

Rams at Bengals (-9, 42) – 1:00 PM EST

Three weeks ago, St. Louis (4-6 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) was in the mix for a Wild Card spot in the NFC at 4-3. The Rams lost in overtime to the Vikings and have spiraled out of control ever since by dropping games to the Bears and Ravens the past weeks. To make matters worse, controversy surrounded the Rams as Case Keenum left last week’s setback at Baltimore with concussion-like symptoms even though the team wasn’t made aware of his injury. The Rams’ offense has been poor regardless of who’s at quarterback, scoring 18 points or less in all six losses, while reaching the end zone once in each of the past three defeats.

Cincinnati (8-2 SU, 8-1-1 ATS) leads the AFC North in spite of losses the last two weeks, as the Bengals dropped a 34-31 decision at Arizona last Sunday night as four-point road underdogs. The Bengals will battle it out with the Broncos for the second seed in the AFC playoffs behind the Patriots over the next month, as Cincinnati had allowed a total of 30 points in the previous three games prior to the Arizona game. Marvin Lewis’ team has won 17 of the past 21 regular season games at Paul Brown Stadium, while posting a 4-0-1 ATS and 3-1-1 SU record against NFC foes at home since 2013.

So why back the Rams?

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says in spite of St. Louis’ recent struggles, this could be a look-ahead spot for the Bengals, “A Cincinnati squad that is reeling with back-to-back losses will face a tough matchup coming off a marquee Sunday night game with the offense showing a decline in the past month, scoring just over 22 points per game in the last four games after scoring over 30 points per game in the 6-0 start. Cincinnati has division games the next two weeks and with a comfortable two-game lead plus the tiebreaker in the division standings this is a game the team may not be quite as focused for.”

For all the problems the Rams have experienced of late, Nelson believes St. Louis is worth a strong look, “St. Louis is just 1-4 on the road but the one win came at Arizona and the Rams also played Green Bay and Minnesota very tough in narrow road defeats. Only twice in five home dates have the Bengals won by more than five points and this will be a steep spread for Cincinnati, with the Bengals on a 5-12-2 ATS run as a favorite of seven or more points going back to 2007.”

Giants (-2 ½, 47) at Redskins – 1:00 PM EST

The NFC East race isn’t done yet, with New York (5-5 SU, 6-3-1 ATS) leading the pack in spite of a 2-3 record the last five games. The Giants are fresh off the bye week after a heartbreaking 24-23 loss to the Patriots at home two weeks ago on a last-second field goal. Tom Coughlin’s club has lost three of five games away from Met Life Stadium including divisional matchups at Dallas and Philadelphia. The Giants have owned the Redskins the last few seasons, winning five straight matchups, including a 32-21 home triumph back in September as three-point favorites.

Out of all the teams below .500 in the NFL, the Redskins (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS) own the best home record at 4-1. Following an opening week loss to the Dolphins, Washington has run off four consecutive home victories, capped off by a 47-14 blowout of New Orleans two weeks ago. The Redskins were chased by the undefeated Panthers last Sunday, 44-16, while being held below 21 points in all five road losses. Washington has cashed in three of four games as a home underdog this season, which includes an outright victory over division rival Philadelphia last month.

So why back the Redskins?

Nelson says the New York defense has been exposed over the past month, “While the Giants are in first place in the NFC East, they are just 5-5 and only the Saints team that Washington blew out in Week 10 has allowed more yards per game on defense as the Giants have surrendered 421 yards per game and over 25 points per game this season despite being a first place team. While any division road game is a big game and this is a big rivalry, a highly anticipated matchup with the Jets is up next for the Giants, a series that occurs only every four years in the current scheduling format despite the teams sharing the same home stadium.”

NFL expert Vince Akins ties in an angle supporting both St. Louis and Washington thanks to recent fumbling issues, “Fumbles are for the most part a random occurrence. Occasionally a player will have true fumbling issues, but for teams, the amount of fumbles throughout the year and year-over-year is mainly a subject of luck. So it stands to reason that teams that had bad fumble luck last game will regress to the mean next game. We indeed see that is the case, as teams which lost at least four fumbles last game have covered 58% of the time next game.”

Akins continues, “What is particularly amazing about this angle this week is that it is active with BOTH games featured in this article. St Louis fumbled five times last week and lost all four and it was definitely the difference in handing the Ravens a 16-13 win. Likewise, Washington fumbled five times and lost four as they were blown out in Carolina. Considering that this fumble factor has only been active twice so far this season and was active a mere two times total in the 2013 and 2014 seasons combined, this is definitely something to take advantage of while the opportunity is available.”

**StarDust Bum** · 11-26-2015, 01:23 AM

Eagles hoping to halt 'panic' with win
November 25, 2015

DETROIT (AP) There won't be any mud puddles on the field when the Detroit Lions host Philadelphia this Thanksgiving. No snow, either.

These two teams - who have a bit of a history of bad-weather games - will play indoors in the comfortable confines of Ford Field, where Chip Kelly's offense (and that of his opponent) can operate unencumbered by any wintery elements.

After two straight losses, the Eagles are still only a game out of first place in the NFC East, but a loss at Detroit on Thursday would leave Kelly and his team facing even more criticism in what's been a trying season so far. Kelly's third year as Philadelphia's coach has been the most difficult, but there's still time to salvage it.

''I think sometimes people panic and throw the baby out with the bathwater,'' Kelly said. ''I think we have a really good football team, and I'm very confident in those football players.''

The Eagles (4-6) still have one of the higher-ranked offenses in the league - they're eighth in yards per game - but the defense unraveled last weekend in a 45-17 loss to Tampa Bay. Detroit (3-7) isn't exactly humming along offensively. The Lions have won two in a row, but scored only 18 points in each of those games.

Philadelphia hasn't played at Detroit on Thanksgiving since 1968, when the Eagles won 12-0 at Tiger Stadium in a game remembered largely for its muddy conditions. The last time the teams met anywhere was in December 2013, when the Eagles won 34-20 during a Philadelphia snowstorm.

Here are a few things to watch in Thursday's matchup:

QUARTERBACK UNCERTAINTY: Philadelphia's Sam Bradford passed through his concussion protocol, but has still been bothered by an issue with his non-throwing shoulder. Mark Sanchez played last weekend against Tampa Bay and threw three interceptions.

GROUND GAME: Detroit is last in the league in rushing, so in that sense, this game could be a reprieve for the beleaguered Philadelphia defense. But the Lions do have rookie RB Ameer Abdullah, who has shown flashes of talent amid fumbling problems. Detroit's Theo Riddick had a solid game against Oakland last weekend, but he looks more effective as a pass catcher than a runner.

TURNING IT AROUND: The Lions had lost nine consecutive Thanksgiving games before winning their past two against Green Bay and Chicago. No matter how badly the season is going - and there have been some rough ones in Detroit - the city always appreciates its holiday football showcase.

''I love playing it,'' quarterback Matthew Stafford said. ''As I get older, it's harder to get physically ready for it. I feel like I feel the hits a little bit more, but I enjoy playing in it.''

UNDER PRESSURE: Philadelphia's passers have a league-worst 60.9 rating in blitz situations, so the best way to slow the Eagles down may be with aggression on passing downs. Of course, Philadelphia has its own way of exerting pressure - the quick pace of its offense makes it harder for opponents to substitute.

''You have to make some adjustments,'' Lions coach Jim Caldwell said. ''Every game is going to create some of those issues. The Packers do some of it sometimes, they pick up the pace, and obviously the Bears have done some. We've bumped into some teams that have had that within their package.''

TURNOVERS: The Lions have an NFL-worst turnover differential of minus-10. After forcing 19 turnovers in the first seven games, the Eagles have only three takeaways in their past three games.

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The Bum's National Football League Week # 12 Rated Plays - Trends - News Etc. !!

The Bum's National Football League Week # 12 Rated Plays - Trends - News Etc. !!

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