NBA System Play for Monday.....

[ez winners]

My system had a big loser yesterday with Sacramento, this is my play for Monday night......



1 STAR: MIAMI (+4) OVER Houston



NBA SYSTEM PLAYS RECORD

5 STAR RECORD 6-5 (+2.5 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 8-5 (+7.5 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 15-7 (+15.5 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 8-12 (-6.3 UNITS)

OVERALL RECORD 37-29 (+19.20 UNITS)
A $100 player would be up $1920.00

[Homer]

Good Luck

[savage1]

John,
I am by no means questioning your pick, but are you aware of trend that Houston is 8-2 ats this year when playing on back to back nights?

[ez winners]

Savage,

Yes, I am aware of that, and that is why I have keep this one at only a 1 star, but this is what the system came up with today, so I am going to run with it. We'll see how it goes.

[SweetLou]

Some added info to your play

Miami Heat--Home Dogs +2.5 or more, with a win percentage greater than .300, cover 93% of the time, if they're off a home dog win, and they're matched up against an unrested foe off back-to-back SU/ATS wins.

[savage1]

I guess it just comes down to which set of stats one wishes to use, and I don't mean that sarcastically.
My rules of thumb are 1) if a team is really hot and there is a system stating they won't cover in next game, throw it out and 2) and conversely,,if team is really cold and playing lousy but there are stats saying they should cover in next game, also throw it out;this applies in all sports.
ps Let me temper above statement-better choice of words is to de-emphasize the trend rather than throw it out entirely.

[ez winners]

WINNER!!!

:D

[frankb03]

ez

Congrats!

[SweetLou]

Right there with u bro!!

[dogpick]

Savage:

Systems are used to objectively show line value. It makes no sense to integrate subjective opinions into a logical system. If you do that, you might as well throw out the system. The system should make logical sense and therefore should continue to work regardless of what teams fall within it.

In essense, systems are used just to find out when the bettors have been right and when they have been wrong. Systems really have nothing to do with subjective opinions regarding the teams that are playing within the system.

[checkers]

as long as the system is $$$.. bring 'em !!!

[frankb03]

dog

I agree with you. The one good thing about trends, systems and situations is it removes the opinion and/or emotion from a pick. A perfect example was my selection on the Hawks Sunday. Why? Because the Hawks suck. I wrestled with that play all day before finally playing and posting the selection.

[savage1]

Dogpick and Frank-I agree to you to an extent.
Perhaps I wasn't clear in what I was trying to say.
Lets take this for an example:
Say team A has won and covered 10 straight.
In their next game they are playing team B, which is playing so-so.
Lets say their are trends that say team A should not cover in this spot and conversely Team B should.
For sake of argument lets say gambling public jumps all over team B figuring because of trends stated this will be the game team A loses and that team B co vers******;lets say because of this, line moves from team A favored by 3 to now team A favored by only 2.
Personally, using the contrarian theory I would either bet team A or pass the game because team A is on a winning streak ; one should never go against a streak, and by my way of thinking this will NOT be the game in which team A's winning streak ends especially since everyone is betting against team A(and that is usually a bad sign).
I think the streak will end in a future game probably when most of trends favor team A actually covering.
As I have stated before, one has to have a "shell game" mentality sometimes and take the less obvious game for a team to cover or not cover.
I certainly agree with the basic premise of streaks and that is why I follow Ez Winners and others who use this thinking.
I was merely trying to point out an instance in which I might not use this type of thinking.
Sorry if I casued any confusion.

[ez winners]

No confusion Savage,

I appreciate when trends are pointed out, when they go against of for my play. They can still be used to help decide how many units to play. I was aware of the strong trend of the Rockets on back to back games that why I keep this at a small play. But like Frank said about his play on Atlanta, you have to stick by the system, in good times and bad, for it to be successfull. We got the win last night, and some very constructive comments about systems and trends out of this, so thats all that matters. I encourage everyone to shrare the feels of comments about plays, because this is how we all work together to beat the man, and that is what it is all about!

[frankb03]

Originally posted by ez winners
I encourage everyone to shrare the feels of comments about plays, because this is how we all work together to beat the man, and that is what it is all about!

Ez, well said!