Trends to Watch - November
November 1, 2015
If Halloween - or the first two months of the NFL season - failed to deliver more treats than tricks during October, it's time we turn the calendar to November for some delectable team trends.
Listed below are some Good, Bad and downright Ugly trends compiled by NFL teams throughout the month of November. Remember, unlike ghosts and goblins, these have stood the test of time dating back to 1990. Enjoy…
HOME TEAMS
Keep an eye on (Good): Known for being a very good road team against the spread for years, Carolina is a 30-18 ATS in Charlotte more recently and will have three shots at improving that record against Indianapolis on Monday night (11/2), Green Bay six days later (11/8) and Washington two weeks hence (11/22).
Dallas is another who has thrived at 37-24 ATS and catches Seattle and Philadelphia on the first two Sunday's, the Eagles a night game and a traditional Thanksgiving clash with Panthers in town.
Bad: There are some nasty November home teams and we start with St. Louis at 17-35 ATS. The Rams will have two chances to show better against weaker clubs in San Francisco (11/1) and Chicago (11/15).
Like Broadway performers, the New York Giants are right in step at 16-32 ATS but have only one contest in the Meadowlands on the 15th. However, it is against New England.
Keep an eye on (Bad): We have a lot of teams that start to fail in the second half of the season against the spread and overall. We will go in alphabetical order.
Cleveland is 11-20 ATS and welcomes Arizona (11/1) early and Baltimore late (11/30). Indianapolis, one of the biggest disappointments this season and equally disappointing at home with 21-32 ATS mark, has Peyton Manning and Denver on the 8th and Tampa Bay on the fifth Sunday.
Improving Oakland will be out to better its 16-30 ATS record with the Jets (11/1) and Minnesota (11/15) in the Bay Area. San Francisco, trying desperately to solve November dilemma (20-30 ATS), has former division partner Atlanta (11/8) and current division partner Arizona (11/29) in Santa Clara. Washington brings up the rear at 18-30 ATS and while they try and determine what to do with RG3, New Orleans (11/15) and the Giants (11/29) will pay a visit.
AWAY TEAMS
Good: With the kind of season Houston is putting together, it sure feels like a stretch to think they can improve upon 17-8 ATS road record. The Texans will have only one opportunity see what they have, a Monday night matchup in Cincinnati on the 16th.
Keep an eye on (Good): While talking about the Bengals, they have been a quality road club at 28-17 ATS. Cincinnati can really prove who they are by not only covering but also beating Pittsburgh (11/1) and Arizona (11/22) in the visiting uniforms.
Tampa Bay has not been too shabby either 33-22 against the spread. The Buccaneers will hit the road three times on Sunday's this month and if you think about them facing the Falcons (11/1), Eagles (11/22) and Colts (11/29) and what the lines might be, they will have shot of at least covering two.
Keep an eye on (Bad): Detroit has been incredibly disappointing this season and the same holds true on the November road. The Lions are unsightly 15-29 ATS and start the month with a new play-caller, with the last jettisoned. While a trip to London is not a true away game, it is not a home one either, facing Kansas City to begin the month. On the 15th is a trip to the frozen tundra, which is never good news for Detroit.
FAVORITES
Keep an eye on (Good): Buffalo is 27-18 ATS in this role and it appears they will be in this position only once on Nov. 8th, as standard spread home favorite against Miami.
Carolina also qualifies at 20-13 ATS and could be favored four times, with home game against the Packers (11/8) the only uncertainty.
Bad: Depending on how the month plays out, Washington might be home favorites against New Orleans (11/15) and the Giants (11/29). If they are, you now know they are 12-29 ATS this month giving points.
Keep an eye on (Bad): Oakland is 15-27 ATS and depending how they play early in the month and if Detroit and Tennessee continue to slump, outside chance the Raiders could be tiny road favorites.
With the Rams pedestrian offense, backing them as home chalk versus San Francisco and Chicago could be risky, especially with 15-25 ATS mark. Kansas City is 22-36 doling out digits the month when turkey and stuffing is passed around. The Chiefs are favored in London against the Lions and will be the Sunday after turkey day with Rex's Bills in the land of barbeque.
UNDERDOGS
Keep an eye on (Good): Tampa Bay's season is usually over by now and they have nothing to play for and few opponents take them seriously, which partially explains its superb 38-22 ATS record. The Bucs could be dogs five times this month, though a home game with Dallas (11/15) and at Indianapolis (11/29) are in question to start the month.
Bad: There has been a great amount of money made by going against the New York Giants this month and none more so than as underdogs at 12-31 ATS. Big Blue begins as pooch in the Big Easy on the first, at home versus the Pats two weeks later and possibly at Washington to conclude the month.
Keep an eye on (Bad): Detroit fans are used to what they are seeing this season and are well aware of 22-40 ATS record receiving points. The Lions will be underdogs in London (11/1), at Green Bay (11/15) and home on turkey day to Philadelphia.
DIVISION
Keep an eye on (Good): The Patriots will host the frustrated Buffalo Bills on the Monday before Thanksgiving, fully intent on making life miserable for Rex Ryan while moving to 27-17 ATS in division battles this month.
Keep an eye on (Bad): St. Louis is nearly double-digit home favorites over San Francisco on Nov. 1st, which sounds like a lot of points considering the Rams 18-30 ATS mark. Kansas City after their bye week has back to back trips to Denver (11/15) and San Diego (11/22) and is a dismal 16-29 ATS this month in AFC West action.
Enjoy the games and be sure to give thanks for all you have in your life. I’ll return next month with a look into December’s NFL team trends.
November 1, 2015
If Halloween - or the first two months of the NFL season - failed to deliver more treats than tricks during October, it's time we turn the calendar to November for some delectable team trends.
Listed below are some Good, Bad and downright Ugly trends compiled by NFL teams throughout the month of November. Remember, unlike ghosts and goblins, these have stood the test of time dating back to 1990. Enjoy…
HOME TEAMS
Keep an eye on (Good): Known for being a very good road team against the spread for years, Carolina is a 30-18 ATS in Charlotte more recently and will have three shots at improving that record against Indianapolis on Monday night (11/2), Green Bay six days later (11/8) and Washington two weeks hence (11/22).
Dallas is another who has thrived at 37-24 ATS and catches Seattle and Philadelphia on the first two Sunday's, the Eagles a night game and a traditional Thanksgiving clash with Panthers in town.
Bad: There are some nasty November home teams and we start with St. Louis at 17-35 ATS. The Rams will have two chances to show better against weaker clubs in San Francisco (11/1) and Chicago (11/15).
Like Broadway performers, the New York Giants are right in step at 16-32 ATS but have only one contest in the Meadowlands on the 15th. However, it is against New England.
Keep an eye on (Bad): We have a lot of teams that start to fail in the second half of the season against the spread and overall. We will go in alphabetical order.
Cleveland is 11-20 ATS and welcomes Arizona (11/1) early and Baltimore late (11/30). Indianapolis, one of the biggest disappointments this season and equally disappointing at home with 21-32 ATS mark, has Peyton Manning and Denver on the 8th and Tampa Bay on the fifth Sunday.
Improving Oakland will be out to better its 16-30 ATS record with the Jets (11/1) and Minnesota (11/15) in the Bay Area. San Francisco, trying desperately to solve November dilemma (20-30 ATS), has former division partner Atlanta (11/8) and current division partner Arizona (11/29) in Santa Clara. Washington brings up the rear at 18-30 ATS and while they try and determine what to do with RG3, New Orleans (11/15) and the Giants (11/29) will pay a visit.
AWAY TEAMS
Good: With the kind of season Houston is putting together, it sure feels like a stretch to think they can improve upon 17-8 ATS road record. The Texans will have only one opportunity see what they have, a Monday night matchup in Cincinnati on the 16th.
Keep an eye on (Good): While talking about the Bengals, they have been a quality road club at 28-17 ATS. Cincinnati can really prove who they are by not only covering but also beating Pittsburgh (11/1) and Arizona (11/22) in the visiting uniforms.
Tampa Bay has not been too shabby either 33-22 against the spread. The Buccaneers will hit the road three times on Sunday's this month and if you think about them facing the Falcons (11/1), Eagles (11/22) and Colts (11/29) and what the lines might be, they will have shot of at least covering two.
Keep an eye on (Bad): Detroit has been incredibly disappointing this season and the same holds true on the November road. The Lions are unsightly 15-29 ATS and start the month with a new play-caller, with the last jettisoned. While a trip to London is not a true away game, it is not a home one either, facing Kansas City to begin the month. On the 15th is a trip to the frozen tundra, which is never good news for Detroit.
FAVORITES
Keep an eye on (Good): Buffalo is 27-18 ATS in this role and it appears they will be in this position only once on Nov. 8th, as standard spread home favorite against Miami.
Carolina also qualifies at 20-13 ATS and could be favored four times, with home game against the Packers (11/8) the only uncertainty.
Bad: Depending on how the month plays out, Washington might be home favorites against New Orleans (11/15) and the Giants (11/29). If they are, you now know they are 12-29 ATS this month giving points.
Keep an eye on (Bad): Oakland is 15-27 ATS and depending how they play early in the month and if Detroit and Tennessee continue to slump, outside chance the Raiders could be tiny road favorites.
With the Rams pedestrian offense, backing them as home chalk versus San Francisco and Chicago could be risky, especially with 15-25 ATS mark. Kansas City is 22-36 doling out digits the month when turkey and stuffing is passed around. The Chiefs are favored in London against the Lions and will be the Sunday after turkey day with Rex's Bills in the land of barbeque.
UNDERDOGS
Keep an eye on (Good): Tampa Bay's season is usually over by now and they have nothing to play for and few opponents take them seriously, which partially explains its superb 38-22 ATS record. The Bucs could be dogs five times this month, though a home game with Dallas (11/15) and at Indianapolis (11/29) are in question to start the month.
Bad: There has been a great amount of money made by going against the New York Giants this month and none more so than as underdogs at 12-31 ATS. Big Blue begins as pooch in the Big Easy on the first, at home versus the Pats two weeks later and possibly at Washington to conclude the month.
Keep an eye on (Bad): Detroit fans are used to what they are seeing this season and are well aware of 22-40 ATS record receiving points. The Lions will be underdogs in London (11/1), at Green Bay (11/15) and home on turkey day to Philadelphia.
DIVISION
Keep an eye on (Good): The Patriots will host the frustrated Buffalo Bills on the Monday before Thanksgiving, fully intent on making life miserable for Rex Ryan while moving to 27-17 ATS in division battles this month.
Keep an eye on (Bad): St. Louis is nearly double-digit home favorites over San Francisco on Nov. 1st, which sounds like a lot of points considering the Rams 18-30 ATS mark. Kansas City after their bye week has back to back trips to Denver (11/15) and San Diego (11/22) and is a dismal 16-29 ATS this month in AFC West action.
Enjoy the games and be sure to give thanks for all you have in your life. I’ll return next month with a look into December’s NFL team trends.
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