Betting Recap - Week 9
November 1, 2015
Overall Notes
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 9 RESULTS
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 42-10
Against the Spread 26-26
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 29-23
Against the Spread 24-28
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 23-29
The largest underdog to win straight up
Miami, Fla. (+10, ML +330) at Duke, 30-27
The largest favorite to cover
Oklahoma (-39) at Kansas, 62-7
Top 25 Notes
-- It's a growing epidemic in college football. For the third consecutive weekend a Top 25 team fell on the final play of the game due to a special teams mistake. Duke trailed Miami-Florida 24-12 with less than six minutes remaining in regulation, but the Blue Devils were able to fight back and take the lead with a touchdown and two-point conversion with :06 left. Good for Duke, right? Well, the Hurricanes used a series of eight laterals to get what appeared to be a miraculous win. However, there was a block in the back flag which was called, then picked up...and, of course, a lengthy, lengthy review process and discussion ad nauseum by the commentators looking at every single angle while offering mindless babble to fill the air time. In the end, while a photo showing a Miami player's knee clear on the ground before one of the eight laterals was spread around on social media like wildfire, apparently the referee crouching right down a few feet from the play, as well as the replay official did not see it. Touchdown Miami. Duke suffers its first conference setback, and a crushing blow in their chances in the Coastal Division. There was also a bad beat in this game (see below).
-- Last time we saw Michigan they suffering an agonizing defeat on a last-second special teams gaffe and loss to Michigan State Oct. 17. This time, it was the Wolverines winning on the final play of the game at Minnesota, standing tall at the end to snuff out a quarterback sneak from the half-yard line with no time remaining, thwarting a Golden Gophers upset bid. ... It was easy come, easy go for Iowa side bettors. The unbeaten Hawkeyes went up 31-7 on Maryland with 7:38 to go thanks to an 88-yard interception return for touchdown, and Iowa was covering. However, on the ensuing kickoff the Terps took it 100 yards for the backdoor cover at 7:26 to go, and there were no more scores.
-- A loss in the Red River rivalry game was certainly a wake-up call for Oklahoma, and it came at an unforunate time for both of the Kansas schools. After their stunning 24-17 setback Oct. 10, Oklahoma has rattled off three straight wins and covers, including two road wins at Kansas State (55-0) and Kansas (62-7). The 'over' is now 5-1 in the past six games for the Sooners.
-- Houston is flying a bit under the radar at No. 19, but they easily handled Vanderbilt by a 34-0 count to cover for the third straight game, and sixth time in seven outings. The Cougars have scored at least 34 points in each of their eight games this season, but it is their defense which is doing a much better job lately. The Cougars have allowed a total of 17 points in the past three games.
-- Stanford headed up to the Palouse to battle Washington State, entering 6-0SU/ATS in the past six while favored by 10 points. The Cardinal had been 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings, and the favorite 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings, but none of that matters to Mike Leach and his Cougars. Washington State nearly pulled off the Pac-12 upset to win their fourth straight, narrowly falling 30-28. WaZu does cover for the fifth consecutive outing. Previously the Cougs were 2-1 SU/1-2 ATS in three home dates.
Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)
-- After a stunning loss last week, Florida State picked themselves up by the bootstraps and came home to hammer Syracuse, 45-21. FSU improved to 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS at home, and the 'over' is now 3-2. Speaking of 'overs', that is the specialty for Syracuse. After their only 'under' of the season in last week's loss to Pittsburgh, the 'over was back for the Orange. The 'over' is now 7-1 for 'Cuse. ... After last week's shocking win, Georgia Tech figured to be flying high. However, it was back to losing for the Yellow Jackets, falling 27-21 at Virginia. The Jackets are now just 1-6 SU/ATS over the past seven games. UVA has now won three of their past four at Scott Stadium.
-- Nebraska now has six losses before the calendar has turned to November. That is stunning. They combined with Purdue to post 100 points on the scoreboard at Ross-Ade Saturday. That's three straight overs for the Huskers, who have forgotten how to play defense. They have allowed 38.3 points per game over the past three. ... Penn State started slow with a 27-10 loss at Temple back on Sept. 5. Suddenly, that loss doesn't look that bad. Plus, the Nittany Lions have rattled off wins in seven of their past eight games, and the defense has stepped up. The blanked Illinois 39-0 Saturday, and have allowed 14 or fewer points in five of their nine games. The under is 4-1 in the past five games, and 7-2 overall this season.
-- Oklahoma State and Texas Tech combined for 123 points. The Cowboys have rattled off 30 or more points in seven straight games, and they're averaging 64.0 PPG over their past two outings. For the Red Raiders, they have allowed 66.5 PPG over the past two outings, with the over going 5-1 in their past six and 7-2 in their nine games overall. However, Texas Tech is 0-3 ATS and they head to West Virginia for a tough game next Saturday.
-- Southern California went to Berkeley and came away with a 27-21 win over California, its second straight impressive conference victory. That's back-to-back covers for the first time since Sept. 5-12 for USC. Cal is suddenly in a tailspin, losing three straight and they're 1-3 ATS over the past four. The 'under' has connected in five straight, so remember that for their road trip to Oregon Nov. 7. ... UCLA held off Colorado 35-31, winning for the second straight game after a two-game skid. However, UCLA is still just 1-3 ATS over the past four, and a marginal 3-4-1 ATS in eight games overall.
-- Florida hammered Georgia 27-3 in the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party in Jacksonville, as the Bulldogs have now dropped three of their past four while going 0-5 ATS over the past five games. The 'under' has been the play recently for UGA, hitting in four of their past five games. It's an understatement, and rather obvious, but this team just hasn't been the same since Nick Chubb suffered his season-ending injury. ... Mississippi won and covered for some in their 27-19 win at Auburn, as they remain in the driver's seat in the SEC West. The line opened at -6, fell briefly to -5.5, and then was -7.5 as early as Saturday morning. However, for some unfortunate souls late to the party, they were laying -8.5 and that was a losing bet.
Mid-Major Report
-- Navy has kinda flown under the radar this season, but they won and covered against a decent South Florida team, 29-17. The Midshipmen improved to 6-1 SU, with its only loss outside the conference in their rivalry game at Notre Dame. Overall the Middies are 5-2 ATS, including 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS in conference. ... Tulsa bagged a 40-31 road win at Southern Methodist, squaring up at 4-4 SU. They're a respectable 4-2-1 ATS over the past seven games, and the under has been a frequent play, going 4-1 over the past five for the Golden Hurricane.
-- Southern Mississippi won again, improve to 6-3 SU, but that's not the story here. The 'under' cashed for the sixth consectuve game in their win against Texas-El Paso, 34-13. ... Florida Atlantic won 31-17 against rival Florida International, snapping a three-game losing and non-cover streak. The 'under' also hit for FAU for the second straight, and fifth time in the past six games. ... North Texas won 30-23 against Texas-San Antonio, winning for the first time in eight games. More importantly after going 0-5 ATS, UNT is 3-0 ATS over the past three outings.
-- Central Michigan posted a 14-6 win on the road against Akron, improving to 5-4 SU. More importantly the Chippewas have turned in an impressive 8-1 ATS mark heading into thier showdown with Toledo Nov. 10. ... Western Michigan won its fourth straight at Eastern Michigan Thursday, 58-28. The 'over' improved to 5-2-1 for the Broncos. For the Eagles of EMU, the 'over' has now connected in six in a row, and eight of nine heading into its game Nov. 7 at Miami-Ohio.
-- Wyoming hit the road for Utah State Friday night with a 4-0 ATS mark in tow, but they failed to cover in this one. The Aggies routed them 58-27, covering for the fourth time in five games. The 'over' is now a perfect 6-0 in the past six for USU heading into its road game with New Mexico Nov. 7. ... It's been a tale of two seasons for San Diego State, straight up and against the spread. The Aztecs started out 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS through four games, but they have won and covered each of the past five in rather convincing fashion. They'll have two full weeks to prepare for a poor Wyoming team, and they'll likely be favored by double digits.
-- Georgia State might not be winning a lot of games, but they're covering for bettors. In four road games they're 2-2 SU and 4-0 ATS, and the 'over' has cashed in three of those outings. ... Troy lost a heartbreaker at Appalachian State, but they were able to cover for the third time in four games. The 'over' is also 3-1 in their past four outings.
Bad Beats
-- So Miami led Duke 24-12 with 5:56 to go in Durham with a total of (51.5) for some. Duke fought and clawed to take a 25-24 lead with :06 and went for two. They converted, pushing for some total bettors, but still cashing under for those with 51.5 tickets. However, you know the rest. A series of laterals, a phantom flag and a missed knee to the ground had Miami celebrating an improbable win, and total bettors suffering not just a bad bet, but a terrible beat.
-- Clemson led 53-41 with 10:58 to go, and N.C. State was covering the 13 1/2-point spread at home. However, a Clemson field goal with 5:52 to go gave the Tigers a road cover, and the Wolfpack side bettors were left shaking their head after covering for most of the day.
-- Minnesota moneyline bettors (+425) were oh-so-close to cashing a winning ticket against Michigan. In fact, they were 18 inches from a win. But the Wolverines bowed their backs and got the stop on a quarterback sneak at the gun, hanging on for a 29-26 win. On the bright side, Gophers side bettors were never in danger of a non-cover.
-- In Thursday's action, Buffalo led 29-17 late into the fourth quarter, so things were looking good for 'under' (50) bettors and for side bettors of the Bulls. However, with one touchdown at 2:21, Miami-Ohio pushed the total over and secured the backdoor cover to change two results on one play.
November 1, 2015
Overall Notes
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 9 RESULTS
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 42-10
Against the Spread 26-26
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 29-23
Against the Spread 24-28
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 23-29
The largest underdog to win straight up
Miami, Fla. (+10, ML +330) at Duke, 30-27
The largest favorite to cover
Oklahoma (-39) at Kansas, 62-7
Top 25 Notes
-- It's a growing epidemic in college football. For the third consecutive weekend a Top 25 team fell on the final play of the game due to a special teams mistake. Duke trailed Miami-Florida 24-12 with less than six minutes remaining in regulation, but the Blue Devils were able to fight back and take the lead with a touchdown and two-point conversion with :06 left. Good for Duke, right? Well, the Hurricanes used a series of eight laterals to get what appeared to be a miraculous win. However, there was a block in the back flag which was called, then picked up...and, of course, a lengthy, lengthy review process and discussion ad nauseum by the commentators looking at every single angle while offering mindless babble to fill the air time. In the end, while a photo showing a Miami player's knee clear on the ground before one of the eight laterals was spread around on social media like wildfire, apparently the referee crouching right down a few feet from the play, as well as the replay official did not see it. Touchdown Miami. Duke suffers its first conference setback, and a crushing blow in their chances in the Coastal Division. There was also a bad beat in this game (see below).
-- Last time we saw Michigan they suffering an agonizing defeat on a last-second special teams gaffe and loss to Michigan State Oct. 17. This time, it was the Wolverines winning on the final play of the game at Minnesota, standing tall at the end to snuff out a quarterback sneak from the half-yard line with no time remaining, thwarting a Golden Gophers upset bid. ... It was easy come, easy go for Iowa side bettors. The unbeaten Hawkeyes went up 31-7 on Maryland with 7:38 to go thanks to an 88-yard interception return for touchdown, and Iowa was covering. However, on the ensuing kickoff the Terps took it 100 yards for the backdoor cover at 7:26 to go, and there were no more scores.
-- A loss in the Red River rivalry game was certainly a wake-up call for Oklahoma, and it came at an unforunate time for both of the Kansas schools. After their stunning 24-17 setback Oct. 10, Oklahoma has rattled off three straight wins and covers, including two road wins at Kansas State (55-0) and Kansas (62-7). The 'over' is now 5-1 in the past six games for the Sooners.
-- Houston is flying a bit under the radar at No. 19, but they easily handled Vanderbilt by a 34-0 count to cover for the third straight game, and sixth time in seven outings. The Cougars have scored at least 34 points in each of their eight games this season, but it is their defense which is doing a much better job lately. The Cougars have allowed a total of 17 points in the past three games.
-- Stanford headed up to the Palouse to battle Washington State, entering 6-0SU/ATS in the past six while favored by 10 points. The Cardinal had been 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings, and the favorite 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings, but none of that matters to Mike Leach and his Cougars. Washington State nearly pulled off the Pac-12 upset to win their fourth straight, narrowly falling 30-28. WaZu does cover for the fifth consecutive outing. Previously the Cougs were 2-1 SU/1-2 ATS in three home dates.
Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)
-- After a stunning loss last week, Florida State picked themselves up by the bootstraps and came home to hammer Syracuse, 45-21. FSU improved to 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS at home, and the 'over' is now 3-2. Speaking of 'overs', that is the specialty for Syracuse. After their only 'under' of the season in last week's loss to Pittsburgh, the 'over was back for the Orange. The 'over' is now 7-1 for 'Cuse. ... After last week's shocking win, Georgia Tech figured to be flying high. However, it was back to losing for the Yellow Jackets, falling 27-21 at Virginia. The Jackets are now just 1-6 SU/ATS over the past seven games. UVA has now won three of their past four at Scott Stadium.
-- Nebraska now has six losses before the calendar has turned to November. That is stunning. They combined with Purdue to post 100 points on the scoreboard at Ross-Ade Saturday. That's three straight overs for the Huskers, who have forgotten how to play defense. They have allowed 38.3 points per game over the past three. ... Penn State started slow with a 27-10 loss at Temple back on Sept. 5. Suddenly, that loss doesn't look that bad. Plus, the Nittany Lions have rattled off wins in seven of their past eight games, and the defense has stepped up. The blanked Illinois 39-0 Saturday, and have allowed 14 or fewer points in five of their nine games. The under is 4-1 in the past five games, and 7-2 overall this season.
-- Oklahoma State and Texas Tech combined for 123 points. The Cowboys have rattled off 30 or more points in seven straight games, and they're averaging 64.0 PPG over their past two outings. For the Red Raiders, they have allowed 66.5 PPG over the past two outings, with the over going 5-1 in their past six and 7-2 in their nine games overall. However, Texas Tech is 0-3 ATS and they head to West Virginia for a tough game next Saturday.
-- Southern California went to Berkeley and came away with a 27-21 win over California, its second straight impressive conference victory. That's back-to-back covers for the first time since Sept. 5-12 for USC. Cal is suddenly in a tailspin, losing three straight and they're 1-3 ATS over the past four. The 'under' has connected in five straight, so remember that for their road trip to Oregon Nov. 7. ... UCLA held off Colorado 35-31, winning for the second straight game after a two-game skid. However, UCLA is still just 1-3 ATS over the past four, and a marginal 3-4-1 ATS in eight games overall.
-- Florida hammered Georgia 27-3 in the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party in Jacksonville, as the Bulldogs have now dropped three of their past four while going 0-5 ATS over the past five games. The 'under' has been the play recently for UGA, hitting in four of their past five games. It's an understatement, and rather obvious, but this team just hasn't been the same since Nick Chubb suffered his season-ending injury. ... Mississippi won and covered for some in their 27-19 win at Auburn, as they remain in the driver's seat in the SEC West. The line opened at -6, fell briefly to -5.5, and then was -7.5 as early as Saturday morning. However, for some unfortunate souls late to the party, they were laying -8.5 and that was a losing bet.
Mid-Major Report
-- Navy has kinda flown under the radar this season, but they won and covered against a decent South Florida team, 29-17. The Midshipmen improved to 6-1 SU, with its only loss outside the conference in their rivalry game at Notre Dame. Overall the Middies are 5-2 ATS, including 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS in conference. ... Tulsa bagged a 40-31 road win at Southern Methodist, squaring up at 4-4 SU. They're a respectable 4-2-1 ATS over the past seven games, and the under has been a frequent play, going 4-1 over the past five for the Golden Hurricane.
-- Southern Mississippi won again, improve to 6-3 SU, but that's not the story here. The 'under' cashed for the sixth consectuve game in their win against Texas-El Paso, 34-13. ... Florida Atlantic won 31-17 against rival Florida International, snapping a three-game losing and non-cover streak. The 'under' also hit for FAU for the second straight, and fifth time in the past six games. ... North Texas won 30-23 against Texas-San Antonio, winning for the first time in eight games. More importantly after going 0-5 ATS, UNT is 3-0 ATS over the past three outings.
-- Central Michigan posted a 14-6 win on the road against Akron, improving to 5-4 SU. More importantly the Chippewas have turned in an impressive 8-1 ATS mark heading into thier showdown with Toledo Nov. 10. ... Western Michigan won its fourth straight at Eastern Michigan Thursday, 58-28. The 'over' improved to 5-2-1 for the Broncos. For the Eagles of EMU, the 'over' has now connected in six in a row, and eight of nine heading into its game Nov. 7 at Miami-Ohio.
-- Wyoming hit the road for Utah State Friday night with a 4-0 ATS mark in tow, but they failed to cover in this one. The Aggies routed them 58-27, covering for the fourth time in five games. The 'over' is now a perfect 6-0 in the past six for USU heading into its road game with New Mexico Nov. 7. ... It's been a tale of two seasons for San Diego State, straight up and against the spread. The Aztecs started out 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS through four games, but they have won and covered each of the past five in rather convincing fashion. They'll have two full weeks to prepare for a poor Wyoming team, and they'll likely be favored by double digits.
-- Georgia State might not be winning a lot of games, but they're covering for bettors. In four road games they're 2-2 SU and 4-0 ATS, and the 'over' has cashed in three of those outings. ... Troy lost a heartbreaker at Appalachian State, but they were able to cover for the third time in four games. The 'over' is also 3-1 in their past four outings.
Bad Beats
-- So Miami led Duke 24-12 with 5:56 to go in Durham with a total of (51.5) for some. Duke fought and clawed to take a 25-24 lead with :06 and went for two. They converted, pushing for some total bettors, but still cashing under for those with 51.5 tickets. However, you know the rest. A series of laterals, a phantom flag and a missed knee to the ground had Miami celebrating an improbable win, and total bettors suffering not just a bad bet, but a terrible beat.
-- Clemson led 53-41 with 10:58 to go, and N.C. State was covering the 13 1/2-point spread at home. However, a Clemson field goal with 5:52 to go gave the Tigers a road cover, and the Wolfpack side bettors were left shaking their head after covering for most of the day.
-- Minnesota moneyline bettors (+425) were oh-so-close to cashing a winning ticket against Michigan. In fact, they were 18 inches from a win. But the Wolverines bowed their backs and got the stop on a quarterback sneak at the gun, hanging on for a 29-26 win. On the bright side, Gophers side bettors were never in danger of a non-cover.
-- In Thursday's action, Buffalo led 29-17 late into the fourth quarter, so things were looking good for 'under' (50) bettors and for side bettors of the Bulls. However, with one touchdown at 2:21, Miami-Ohio pushed the total over and secured the backdoor cover to change two results on one play.
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