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Its been a while since I posted...good luck
Based on 1-5*
Note: As usual, the lines have moved a lot after I bet these games (often with my plays). Following me on Twitter is the best way to get the lines posted.
3* GB/Denver 1st half under 23.5 (-115)
Likely upgrade
Play at 23+
Note: I may have a play on under in game wagering as well...stay tuned on Twitter
I love the 1st half under in this one! My numbers make this total 38! GB offense is very good (10th in rushing, 2nd in passing eff) but Denver has the best defense in the league allowing only 4.3 YPP (1st). They are 6th in rushing def effic and 1st in passing def effic (and 1st overall). Conversely, Denver’s offense is dead last in the league in efficiency (31st in run, 32nd in pass). They won’t be able to move the ball at all versus a GB defense that is 7th in efficiency. GB’s weakest part of their def is their running D (16th) and Manning will know this and try to run the ball (hence running the clock). Love it!
2* Chicago over Minn
Play at +1 or better
The wrong team is favored here. The Vikes keep getting bookmaker love based on preseason hype, but the fact is they are not a good football team and don’t deserve to be a road fav here. The Vikes are 25th in rushing off effic and 28th in passing offensive efficiency…that is one of the worst in the leagues! Defensively they are not much better; 27th vs the run and 18th vs the pass. They are -0.4 in YPP (22nd in league). Chicago’s numbers are very similar; 22nd in offensive effic and 29th in def efficiency. The Bears are off a bye and the Vikes are off a div road win...great spot. I have the Bears as a 2 point favorite here…give me the Dog.
2* Jets -1.5 over Oak
Play at -2.5 or better
The Jets are still being undervalued in the market place. We all know their defense is one of the best in the leagues; 1st vs the run and 3rd vs the pass. But, their offense is also very good; they are 6th in total offensive efficiency. They are 2nd in the league in YPP differential at +1.1 (behind Ari) . Oak is an improved football team and they are average on both sides of the ball (14th in def and off effic) but I don’t think they will be able to move the ball effectively vs the Jets. My numbers have the Jets as a 4 poit favorite. There is a 110-56 ATS trend favoring the Jets also.
2* Balt/SD over 50
Play at 51 or better
This is going to be a high scoring game as my algorithm predicts 57 points. SD has the 3rd worst def based on efficiency including the 31st rushing defense which will play into the hands of Balt who is 11th in rushing offense based on efficiency. Baltimore’s defense is very bad also (23rd in effic) including 25th in defensive effic which SD will take advantage of as they are 5th in offensive passing effic. I see very high scoring game. Weather won’t be a factor as it is supposed to be 60 degrees with no wind or precipitation.
1* Detroit +4.5 over KC
Play at 4+
Nobody want to back Detroit right now…that is usually a good time to bet a team. KC doesn’t deserve to be such a big favorite here, it is based on public perception. The Chiefs Def is 22nd in effic and 13th in offensive efficiency. The Lions are not good by any means (24th in off effic and 26th in def effic), but I think getting a new OC will give them a boost (similar to what we saw for the Dolphins this year). Don’t make too much of KC’s win over Pitt last week, they were outgained on a YPP basis but were +3 in TOs. My numbers come out to KC -2.5 on a neutral site in London so getting over 3 is a great play. There is a 82-41 trend favoring the Lions based on their recent poor performances.
Based on 1-5*
Note: As usual, the lines have moved a lot after I bet these games (often with my plays). Following me on Twitter is the best way to get the lines posted.
3* GB/Denver 1st half under 23.5 (-115)
Likely upgrade
Play at 23+
Note: I may have a play on under in game wagering as well...stay tuned on Twitter
I love the 1st half under in this one! My numbers make this total 38! GB offense is very good (10th in rushing, 2nd in passing eff) but Denver has the best defense in the league allowing only 4.3 YPP (1st). They are 6th in rushing def effic and 1st in passing def effic (and 1st overall). Conversely, Denver’s offense is dead last in the league in efficiency (31st in run, 32nd in pass). They won’t be able to move the ball at all versus a GB defense that is 7th in efficiency. GB’s weakest part of their def is their running D (16th) and Manning will know this and try to run the ball (hence running the clock). Love it!
2* Chicago over Minn
Play at +1 or better
The wrong team is favored here. The Vikes keep getting bookmaker love based on preseason hype, but the fact is they are not a good football team and don’t deserve to be a road fav here. The Vikes are 25th in rushing off effic and 28th in passing offensive efficiency…that is one of the worst in the leagues! Defensively they are not much better; 27th vs the run and 18th vs the pass. They are -0.4 in YPP (22nd in league). Chicago’s numbers are very similar; 22nd in offensive effic and 29th in def efficiency. The Bears are off a bye and the Vikes are off a div road win...great spot. I have the Bears as a 2 point favorite here…give me the Dog.
2* Jets -1.5 over Oak
Play at -2.5 or better
The Jets are still being undervalued in the market place. We all know their defense is one of the best in the leagues; 1st vs the run and 3rd vs the pass. But, their offense is also very good; they are 6th in total offensive efficiency. They are 2nd in the league in YPP differential at +1.1 (behind Ari) . Oak is an improved football team and they are average on both sides of the ball (14th in def and off effic) but I don’t think they will be able to move the ball effectively vs the Jets. My numbers have the Jets as a 4 poit favorite. There is a 110-56 ATS trend favoring the Jets also.
2* Balt/SD over 50
Play at 51 or better
This is going to be a high scoring game as my algorithm predicts 57 points. SD has the 3rd worst def based on efficiency including the 31st rushing defense which will play into the hands of Balt who is 11th in rushing offense based on efficiency. Baltimore’s defense is very bad also (23rd in effic) including 25th in defensive effic which SD will take advantage of as they are 5th in offensive passing effic. I see very high scoring game. Weather won’t be a factor as it is supposed to be 60 degrees with no wind or precipitation.
1* Detroit +4.5 over KC
Play at 4+
Nobody want to back Detroit right now…that is usually a good time to bet a team. KC doesn’t deserve to be such a big favorite here, it is based on public perception. The Chiefs Def is 22nd in effic and 13th in offensive efficiency. The Lions are not good by any means (24th in off effic and 26th in def effic), but I think getting a new OC will give them a boost (similar to what we saw for the Dolphins this year). Don’t make too much of KC’s win over Pitt last week, they were outgained on a YPP basis but were +3 in TOs. My numbers come out to KC -2.5 on a neutral site in London so getting over 3 is a great play. There is a 82-41 trend favoring the Lions based on their recent poor performances.
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