Announcement

**Udog** · 10-27-2015, 10:08 PM

Books struggle to show Denver respect with NFL Week 8 odds

“It's very rare when Denver is an underdog at home, but this is one of those rare times." - John Avello, Wynn Las Vegas

For many observers, the Denver Broncos’ unbeaten record is a lot of smoke and mirrors. A stout defense has bailed out an embarrassingly-ineffective offense led by a surprisingly pedestrian Peyton Manning.

In Week 8, that smoke could clear and the mirrors could break, with Denver (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) hosting a team that looks much more worthy of its perfect mark – the Green Bay Packers (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS).

Both teams are coming off their bye week. In Week 6, Green Bay held off San Diego 27-20 as a healthy 10.5-point home favorite – the first time this season the Packers haven’t covered the spread. Denver, meanwhile, is arguably coming off the ugliest of several ugly wins, edging Cleveland 26-23 in overtime as 3.5-point road chalk.

John Lester, senior lines manager for Bookmaker.eu, said the line opened as a pick ‘em for the Sunday night game in the Mile High City, but it moved toward the Packers in a hurry.

“The pros were ready to pounce when we opened this, and in a matter of minutes the number had moved to -2.5 in favor of Green Bay,” Lester tells Covers. “Both teams had a week to prepare, and sit and think about their perfect records. It’s no secret the public is down on Denver due to the negativity surrounding Manning, but it’s not as if Green Bay has destroyed any of its opponents this year.

“I can see this getting to -3 at some point, but there will be some sharps who enter the underdog mix then. The smartest play is probably the Under.”

John Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas, said Denver has played its way into being a home pup.

“It's very rare when Denver is an underdog at home, but this is one of those rare times. In their two home games, the Broncos just squeaked by the Ravens and Vikings,” Avello tells Covers. “I will say both defenses have played extremely well.”

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (N/A)

Cincinnati (6-0 SU, 5-0-1 ATS) has been a great on the field and at the betting window, and now has a chance to put a stranglehold on the AFC North. The Bengals are coming off their bye week, after beating Buffalo 34-21, laying three points on the road in Week 6.

Since losing quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (knee) in Week 3, Pittsburgh has just hoped to tread water, and has ostensibly done that, going 2-2 SU. The Steelers had a two-game SU and ATS uptick halted at Kansas City, losing 23-13 as 3.5-point underdogs Sunday, and they’ll hope to have Roethlisberger back in the fold this week.

But with that unknown, the line on this game will have to wait.

“The Steelers need Big Ben back, and I believe he will show up for this one,” Avello says. “If that's the case, expect to see the Bengals getting points, and with their ATS record, that's frightening.”

Lester is also prepping for Roethlisberger’s return.

“Big Ben is closer and closer to being ready, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s back for this division showdown,” Lester says. “The guy is tough as nails, and him on one leg is better than a healthy Landry Jones or Mike Vick. We’ll hold off on releasing a line until his status becomes clearer. Roethlisberger is worth a full touchdown to a line, so if he’s ready, the Steelers will be favored.”

Seattle Seahawks (-5) at Dallas Cowboys

It’s a battle of two teams that made the playoffs last year, but as November dawns, both are in positions where they can’t afford another loss. Two-time defending NFC champion Seattle (3-4 SU, 2-4-1 ATS) opened Week 7 in the Thursday night game, shutting down San Francisco 20-3 giving 6.5 points on the road.

Dallas (2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS) has lost its way without quarterback Tony Romo and wideout Dez Bryant. The Cowboys dropped their fourth in a row SU and ATS Sunday, losing to the New York Giants 27-20 as a 3-point road underdog. Bryant could be back this week, but Romo is out until at least Week 11, meaning Matt Cassel (3 INTs Sunday, including a pick-six) will again be the starter.

“Money came in on the road chalk Sunday night, and we quickly moved to -6,” Lester says. “The public may pile on and get this to the key number at some point, but I don’t expect it will finish there. Matt Cassel was absolutely an upgrade over Brandon Weeden at the pivot for Dallas, and the offensive line had an excellent game at New York. The Cowboys could steal a win here, especially if Dez Bryant is back in the lineup.”

Avello wasn’t quite as sold on Cassel.

“The Cowboys tried a new QB this week and that didn't work, and now they are really desperate for a win,” he says. “The Seahawks aren't that far from desperation either, knowing that Arizona is probably not fading this year, so they must keep pace in the wild-card hunt.”

Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers (N/A)

Carolina reached the playoffs last season by winning a dismal NFC South Division with a 7-9 SU record. This year, the Panthers (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS) are already on the brink of that same number of wins, after dispatching Philadelphia 27-16 laying three points at home in the Sunday night game. They’ll be in the spotlight again for Week 8, on Monday night.

Meanwhile, Indianapolis – which reached the AFC Championship Game last season – has to be grateful that the AFC South is the top contender for this season’s dismal division award. The Colts (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS), 5.5-point home favorites Sunday against New Orleans, trailed 27-0 at one point and lost 27-21.

“The Colts have looked flat-out bad, and if not for playing in the weakest division in the NFL, they would have no shot at the playoffs,” Avello says. “Carolina keeps rolling at 6-0, and this pointspread may end up higher than I initially thought, due to the direction each team is going.”

Says Lester, “We’ll look to make Carolina around 6-point chalk if everything goes accordingly Sunday night against Philadelphia. The internal turmoil in Indy appears to be affecting performance on the field. Well, that, a bad offensive line and a Swiss-cheese defense.

“It’s two straight prime-time games for a Panthers team that seems to be finally growing accustomed to winning on the big stage.”

**Udog** · 10-27-2015, 10:10 PM

Football bettors must react quickly to these NFL Week 8 odds

The Panthers could move to touchdown favorites versus the Colts, but you'll likely have to wait for the line move later in the week.

Spread to bet now

Green Bay Packets at Denver Broncos (+2.5)

The half point hook below a field goal makes this an attractive number for Packers backers as two of the NFL’s remaining undefeated teams go at it this Sunday night in Denver. Heavy early money has flowed in on the 6-0 Packers, as bettors no doubt believe that Green Bay has a decided advantage at the quarterback position after several lackluster performances from Peyton Manning.

Manning has dropped like a stone in key offensive categories, and now ranks 17th in passing yards, 26th in TD passes and is a stunning 31st (only Ryan Mallett is worse) in QB rating. There is a widespread belief league-wide that the Broncos are 6-0 despite Manning, not because of him.

In fact, the Broncos are only a handful of plays from being 1-5. Green Bay, meanwhile, is a solid 5-1 ATS. Both teams are coming off their bye week.

Spread to wait on

Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers (-6.5)

No reason to jump here, especially if you’re among the dwindling number of bettors who have not yet given up on the Colts. Heavy action on the Panthers might be enough to push the line to seven, especially for bettors who don’t mind shopping around.

Indianapolis’ second-half comeback last Sunday at home against the Saints gave Colts backers something to hang their hats on, even as they embark on a nasty three-game schedule: at Carolina, home versus Denver, and at Atlanta.

Total to watch

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (51.5)

Over bettors have cashed handsomely (both are 4-2 O/U) on these AFC East teams this year. New England’s offense has been devastating at home and the 51 points the Patriots scored against Jacksonville were not even as impressive as the 30 they put up on the Jets’ best-in-the-NFL defense last Sunday.

Miami has seemed to come alive offensively, and should be able to move the ball against a New England defense that is always willing to give up yards for clock when ahead in the game. The last time the teams played in Gillette Stadium, the Pats won 41-13. This could be a similar result.

**Udog** · 10-27-2015, 10:11 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 29

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MIAMI (3 - 3) at NEW ENGLAND (6 - 0) - 10/29/2015, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 66-91 ATS (-34.1 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 169-129 ATS (+27.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-2 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 2-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, November 1

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DETROIT (1 - 6) vs. KANSAS CITY (2 - 5) - 11/1/2015, 9:30 AM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 36-58 ATS (-27.8 Units) in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (4 - 2) at CHICAGO (2 - 4) - 11/1/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 2-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 2-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (2 - 4) at ATLANTA (6 - 1) - 11/1/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 56-33 ATS (+19.7 Units) in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-1 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-1 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (4 - 3) at NEW ORLEANS (3 - 4) - 11/1/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 31-59 ATS (-33.9 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 51-31 ATS (+16.9 Units) in road games off a division game since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 52-32 ATS (+16.8 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 5) at ST LOUIS (3 - 3) - 11/1/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 146-183 ATS (-55.3 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 146-183 ATS (-55.3 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 104-144 ATS (-54.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-1 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (5 - 2) at CLEVELAND (2 - 5) - 11/1/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CINCINNATI (6 - 0) at PITTSBURGH (4 - 3) - 11/1/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 65-92 ATS (-36.2 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 72-49 ATS (+18.1 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 82-57 ATS (+19.3 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 64-37 ATS (+23.3 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO (2 - 5) at BALTIMORE (1 - 6) - 11/1/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 43-25 ATS (+15.5 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (1 - 5) at HOUSTON (2 - 5) - 11/1/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (4 - 2) at OAKLAND (3 - 3) - 11/1/2015, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 37-73 ATS (-43.3 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 1-1 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 2-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (3 - 4) at DALLAS (2 - 4) - 11/1/2015, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 39-62 ATS (-29.2 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
SEATTLE is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 1-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (6 - 0) at DENVER (6 - 0) - 11/1/2015, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
DENVER is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
DENVER is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 85-59 ATS (+20.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
DENVER is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) against NFC North division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, November 2

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INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 4) at CAROLINA (6 - 0) - 11/2/2015, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 66-45 ATS (+16.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 76-42 ATS (+29.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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**Udog** · 10-27-2015, 10:12 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 8

Thursday - Oct, 29

Miami at New England, 8:25 ET
Miami: 66-91 ATS versus division opponents
New England: 6-0 ATS in home games off a home win

Sunday - Nov, 1

Detroit at Kansas City, 9:30 AM ET
Detroit: 3-13 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
Kansas City: 7-0 ATS off 2 or more consecutive unders

Minnesota at Chicago, 9:30 ET
Minnesota: 13-4 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest
Chicago: 1-9 ATS after having won 2 out of their last 3

Tampa Bay at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 31-13 ATS after scoring 30 points or more last game
Atlanta: 6-25 ATS after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games

NY Giants at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
New York: 65-39 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins
New Orleans: 12-28 ATS at home after game with a t/o margin of +2 or better

San Francisco at St Louis, 1:00 ET
San Francisco: 0-7 ATS in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42
St Louis: 8-1 ATS off a non-conference game

Arizona at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Arizona: 19-8 UNDER as a road favorite of 7 points or less
Cleveland: 9-2 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, 1:00 ET
Cincinnati: 6-16 ATS off 4 or more consecutive overs
Pittsburgh: 6-0 ATS at home after covering the spread in 2 out of 3

San Diego at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 4-12 ATS against conference opponents
Baltimore: 38-21 ATS after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards

Tennessee at Houston, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 1-7 ATS after 4 or more consecutive losses
Houston: 37-28 ATS off a road loss

NY Jets at Oakland, 4:05 ET
New York: 36-20 OVER after 2 games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse
Oakland: 0-6 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better

Seattle at Dallas, 4:25 ET
Seattle: 13-4 ATS in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42
Dallas: 8-1 OVER after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game

Green Bay at Denver, 8:30 ET
Green Bay: 14-5 ATS as a favorite
Denver: 7-18 ATS against NFC North division opponents
nfl football betting online bovada

Monday - Nov, 2

Indianapolis at Carolina, 8:30 ET
Indianapolis: 7-0 OVER off 2 consecutive home losses
Carolina: 66-45 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49

**Udog** · 10-27-2015, 10:13 PM

NFL

Week 8

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Trend Report
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Thursday, October 29

8:25 PM
MIAMI vs. NEW ENGLAND
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing New England
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Sunday, November 1

9:30 AM
DETROIT vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Detroit is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Kansas City is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Tennessee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games at home
Houston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. CLEVELAND
Arizona is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona's last 8 games
Cleveland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
Cleveland is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. ST. LOUIS
San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games
St. Louis is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
St. Louis is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing Chicago
Minnesota is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 9 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Chicago is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. PITTSBURGH
Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Atlanta is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

1:00 PM
NY GIANTS vs. NEW ORLEANS
NY Giants are 7-16 SU in their last 23 games on the road
NY Giants are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Giants
New Orleans is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. BALTIMORE
San Diego is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
San Diego is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Baltimore is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games

4:05 PM
NY JETS vs. OAKLAND
NY Jets are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games when playing Oakland
NY Jets are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road
Oakland is 2-6 SU in their last 8 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Oakland's last 9 games

4:25 PM
SEATTLE vs. DALLAS
Seattle is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Seattle is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games at home

8:30 PM
GREEN BAY vs. DENVER
Green Bay is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 7 games when playing Denver
Denver is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
Denver is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Green Bay

Monday, November 2

8:30 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. CAROLINA
Indianapolis is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Indianapolis's last 14 games
Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

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**Udog** · 10-27-2015, 10:19 PM

STARDUST BUM'S NFL RATED GAMES: (as of 10/29/15 )

MONDAY'S RESULTS: ( 10/26/15 )

*****......................... 0 - 0 - 0
DOUBLE PLAYS.............0 - 1 - 0
TRIPLE PLAY.................1 - 0 - 0
BLOW OUT....................0 - 0
GOM.............................0 - 0
TOM..............................0 - 0

OVER ALL RATED PLAYS

*****.......................................... 13 - 12 - 2
double play...................................29 - 20 - 2
triple play......................................15 - 14 - 1
blow out........................................ 4- 2 - 0
gom............................................... 1 - 0
goy............................................... 0 - 0
tom............................................... 1 - 1
totals............................................ 26 - 12 - 2 ( TOTALS INCLUDED IN RATED PLAYS )

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

******.....................................2 - 0 - 1
DOUBLE PLAY............................1 - 3 - 1
TRIPLE PLAY..............................3 - 2 - 1
BLOW OUT.................................0 - 0
THURSDAY NIGHT GOM..............0 - 0
THURS. NIGHT GOY....................0 - 0

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

SINGLE PLAY........................... 3 - 2 - 0
DOUBLE PLAY.......................... 4 - 1
TRIPLE PLAY............................ 1 - 2
BLOW OUT............................... 0 - 0
SUNDAY NIGHT GOM.................1 - 0
SUNDAY NIGHT TOM..................0 - 1
SUNDAY NIGHT GOY...............

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

******......................................1 - 0
DOUBLE PLAY...........................4 - 2
TRIPLE PLAY.............................3 - 2
BLOW OUT................................0 - 0
MONDAY NIGHT GOM...............0 - 0
MONDAY NIGHT GOY................0 - 0

GOING INTO THURSDAY'S FOOTBALL GAMES: 10/29/15

**Udog** · 10-27-2015, 10:20 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 8

Thursday's game
Dolphins (3-3) @ Patriots (6-0)-- Miami is 2-0 under interim coach Campbell, running ball for 428 yards, completing 84% of passes, but that was vs Titans/Texans. Dolphins are 0-6 in last six visits to Foxboro, with five losses by 10+ points- they did beat Patriots last two years in Miami. Patriots are 27-20-2 as home favorites since '09 (1-0-2 this year) winning by 7-34-7 points. In last four games, NE foes started 36 of 41 drives 80+ yards from goal line; they're dominating field position. Since '07, Dolphins are 34-19-2 as road underdogs (1-0 this year). Pats won last four Thursday games (2-2 vs spread); Miami lost three of last five Thursday tilts. Over is 4-1 in last five games for both teams; Miami scored TD on defense in each of their last two games.

**Udog** · 10-29-2015, 07:37 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 8

Miami @ New England

Game 101-102
October 29, 2015 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
135.278
New England
139.314
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 4
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 8 1/2
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+8 1/2); Over

**Udog** · 10-29-2015, 07:41 AM

NFL

Thursday, October 29

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football betting preview: Dolphins at Patriots
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The home team has covered in six consecutive meetings between the AFC East rivals.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-8, 50.5)

A change in head coaches has been akin to a magic wand for the revitalized Miami Dolphins, who have rolled up 82 points in romping to a pair of lopsided victories since Dan Campbell replaced the fired Joe Philbin. The Dolphins may need some magic when they head north to visit Tom Brady and the undefeated New England Patriots in an AFC East matchup on Thursday night.

Miami had lost three in a row and failed to score more than 20 points in each of its first four games before Philbin was let go, but it has responded to the change with a 38-10 romp at Tennessee before a 44-26 mauling of Houston on Sunday. “You look at our work out there and it really was a team effort,” Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill said after leading his team to a 41-0 halftime lead over the Texans on Sunday. New England rallied from a 20-16 fourth-quarter deficit to beat the visiting New York Jets 30-23 in a showdown for division supremacy. The Patriots, who are averaging a league-best 35.5 points, have won eight of the last 10 meetings versus Miami.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened as 8.5-point home favorites and have been bet down slightly to the current number of New England -8. The total has been bet down from 51.5 to 50.5.

POWER RANKINGS: Miami (-2) - Patriots (-9.5) + home field (-3) = Patriots -10.5

INJURY REPORT:

Miami - CB B. McCain (probable Thursday, knee), CB B. Grimes (probable Thursday, knee), C M. Pouncey (probable Thursday, hip), LB S. Paysinger (probable Thursday, groin), DB Z. Bowman (probable Thursday, shoulder), DT A. Francis (questionable Thursday, back).

Patriots - OL S. Mason (questionable Thursday, knee), RB B. Bolden (questionable Thursday, knee), RB D. Lewis (questionable Thursday, abdominal), WR K. Martin (questionable Thursday, hamstring), OL M. Cannon (out Thursday, toe).

WEATHER REPORT: It will be partly cloudy around kickoff, but should clear up throughout the evening. There is just a 10 percent chance of rain and with temperatures in the low 50's. There will also be an eight mile per hour wind blowing across the field.

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (3-3, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 O/U): Tannehill compiled a perfect passer rating of 158.3 while going 18-of-19 for 282 yards with four touchdowns while establishing an NFL record with 25 consecutive completions over a two-game span. The biggest beneficiary of the coaching change has been running back Lamar Miller, who averaged 32.8 yards rushing in his first four games before putting up 113 yards against Tennessee and 175 versus Houston while scoring in both games. The Dolphins have also come alive on the other side of the ball by recording nine of their sacks over the past two games.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (6-0, 3-2-1 ATS, 4-2 O/U): Facing a Jets defense that ranked among the league leaders in nearly every category, New England eschewed the run and put the ball in the hands of Brady, who threw for 355 yards and a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns. Brady, who became the fifth QB in league history to surpass 55,000 yards, has 16 TD passes versus one interception and his favorite targets are Julian Edelman (45 receptions, four TDs) and behemoth tight end Rob Gronkowski, who already has six receiving scores. The Patriots are allowing 21 points per game but rank fourth in the league with 21 sacks.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Favorites are 4-1 ATS in their five meetings.
* Under is 6-0-1 in the Dolphins last seven Thursday games.
* Over is 4-1 in Patriots last five games overall.

CONSENSUS: The public is fairly split for this AFC East showdown, with 53. 38 percent of wagers backing the Patriots.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 10-29-2015, 07:44 AM

Why Week 8 is a crucial tipping point for NFL Over/Under bettors

The Bengals roster is loaded with offensive weapons, which has Cincinnati going 5-1 Over/Under heading into Week 8.

We are nearly at the halfway mark in the NFL season, and the power dynamics of the NFL are coming into focus. The Patriots seem intent on destroying everyone, the Broncos remain undefeated despite looking extremely beatable, and Texans, despite shining on HBO’s Hard Knocks, don’t seemed to have improved much. But how will our observations hold up over the remainder of the season?

Turning our attention to totals, will Cleveland, Houston and Cincinnati - which have each hit the Over in all but one game so far - continue to produce high-scoring finishes? Will Minnesota, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia - all of which have only gone Over once so far - continue to be involved in low-scoring games?

Essentially, we wanted to know if we can use a team’s performance in the first half-ish of the season (prior to Week 8) to predict its Over/Under performance for the remainder of the season (Week 8 and later).

We looked into this using a long-term dataset, going back to 1985. For each team, we looked at the percentage of games that went Over the total for both before and after (and including) Week 8. We then ran a regression, trying to predict the percentage of games a team would go Over the total in the second half of the season using their Over/Under percentage from the first half as the independent variable.

We looked at whether teams that went Over the total continued that trend in the second half. Running a regression, we found there to be a significant correlation between performance in the first half versus the second half. The coefficient of the previous half performance was negative and highly significant with a p-value of 0.000315.

The negative coefficient is interesting, as it shows that teams that often play Over the total in the first half actually go Under the total more often than not in the second half of the season. This suggests that the betting market expects teams in high-scoring games to continue to be in high-scoring games, leading the totals being raised for said teams. This again reflects, as we’ve said in previous posts, how the betting public see streams that contain some randomness and assign to them more significance than they deserve.

Looking at the numbers, let’s focus on the extremes: teams that are consistently going either Over or Under. Let’s look at teams that went Over either greater than 80 percent or less than 20 percent of the time. This would basically be going all but one game Over, or all but one game Under.

Since 1985, there have 62 teams that have gone Over at least 80 percent of the time prior to Week 8. Those teams have been involved in 853 unique games after Week 8, seven of which pushed for the total.

Of the games that didn’t push, only 395 of them went Over - just 46.6 percent. Although this isn’t a huge difference, given the large sample size, it’s statistically significant, with a p-value of 0.054.

We can also see that there have been 82 teams that have gone Over in less than 20 percent of their games before Week 8, and have been involved in 1161 unique games after Week 8 in the the total bet did not push. Of those, 625 of them - 53.8 percent - ended up going Over the total. Again, this is not a huge difference but is pretty significant, with a p-value of 0.009774.

So all of this suggests that bettors see teams scoring a lot of points, letting up a lot of points, and generally just being involved in high-scoring games (or vice versa with low-scoring game) and assume that trend will continue to the second half of the season.

It’s also interesting that same thing is not happening with teams who win ATS more often than not, because this suggests that bettors know how to properly evaluate teams that do so. Either they don’t raise their expectations that much, or it is a sign that the team is actually better than expected. For the discrepancy that we see with totals, however, it suggests that bettors may be reading too much into a series of especially high or low-scoring games.

Looking at this season, there are six teams that fit into one of the categories that we looked at. Cleveland, Houston and Cincinnati have all gone Over the total in all but one game, and so you might now look for totals that seem too high for those teams and take the Under on those games. Meanwhile, Minnesota, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh have gone Over the total line in less than 20 percent of their games, so it might be wise to take a long look at the Over in their remaining games.

**Udog** · 10-29-2015, 02:20 PM

NFL

Thursday, October 29

Under bets trending in primetime games

Heading into Thursday night's meeting between the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots, the Over/Under count in primetime games is 7-14-1.

So far, that number is a stark contrast to what we saw last season when the Over was the king of primetime games, going 34-16 on the season.

Underdogs have also been hot on the national stage, going 13-8-1 against the spread in primetime action.

Books opened the total for Thursday's game at 51.5, but that has since come down to 50.5.

**Udog** · 10-29-2015, 08:52 PM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 8

Standout WR DeAndre Hopkins has recorded 319 of his total 776 receiving yards in the fourth quarter, along with three of his five TD catches.

Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-5, 45)

Lions’ new OC Jim Bob Cooter vs. Chiefs' improving defense

New Detroit offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter, whose name seems ripped from “The Dukes of Hazard”, doesn’t have much time to put his schemes in action after replacing former OC Joe Lombardi. Cooter has mere days to familiarize his offense and find a balance between what he wants to do and what this offense already knows. And on top of that, Detroit has to travel to London, England for Week 8's date.

Given that Cooter was the QB coach in Detroit for the past season and a half, bettors should expect the Lions to air it out even more, despite the fact that they already throw the ball on a league-high 69.98 percent of their snaps. That's bred 18 total turnovers - most in the NFL - with 10 of those coming via interception. The Lions face a Chiefs defense with six picks in seven games, including three from standout rookie corner Marcus Peters.

And as far as Detroit's playcalling at the line of scrimmage, Kansas City has benefited from nine false start penalties already this season – totaling 44 yards against opponents. The Chiefs stop unit has really taken off in recent weeks, allowing an average of just over 329 yards for 15.7 points per game in their last three contests – second lowest in the NFL in that span.

Daily fantasy watch: Buy - Chiefs D/ST, Sell - QB Matthew Stafford

Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns (+4.5, 46)

Cardinals explosive run game vs. Browns’ big-play problems

The Cardinals rushing game has stunned NFL pundits, continuing to get production from a ho-hum running back corps led by the resurrected Chris Johnson, who sits second in the NFL in rushing yards. Johnson is coming off a 122-yard performance against the Ravens last Monday, picking up the bulk of those yards on a 26-yard TD run and a 62-yard dash in which Baltimore thought they had tackled the former rushing champ.

Johnson is burning up the turf for 5.1 yards per carry and has rumbled for 15 runs of 10 yards or more this season, headlining an Arizona offense that has 27 total runs of 10-plus yards on the season – fourth most in the league. That’s helped average 125.6 yards on the ground per game, keeping defenses honest and off the back of QB Carson Palmer.

Cleveland is allowing 151 yards rushing per game – worst in the NFL – and has been bulldozed for 163.7 yards on the ground over its last three contests. Last week, the Browns watched Rams rookie RB Todd Gurley slice them up for 128 yards on 19 carries, including a 48-yard run. Add that to the big plays Cleveland has given up on the season, which sits at 29 runs of 10 or more yards heading into Week 8.

Daily fantasy watch: Buy - RB Chris Johnson, Sell - Cleveland D/ST

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-4/ N/A)

Titans’ late-game collapses vs. Texans’ fantastic fourth quarters

The big question for this game is the health of Titans rookie QB Marcus Mariota, who missed last week with a sprained knee. However, it might not matter who’s under center for Tennessee if its defense keeps coughing up points in the fourth quarter. The Titans stop unit has allowed opponents to score 9.3 points per final frame this season, which sits fifth worst in the NFL.

Outside of pitching fourth-quarter shutouts last week versus Atlanta and in Week 1 versus Tampa Bay, Tennessee has allowed 49 total points in the last 15 minutes. That type of defensive dwindling sets up for some painful backdoor covers the other way, especially against teams like Houston. The Texans have certainly been saving their best for last, as it pertains to fourth-quarter production.

Houston averages a league-high 12.1 points per fourth quarter this season, including 13 garbage-time points in the final quarter during a blowout loss to the Dolphins last week. In Week 6, the Texans put up 21 points in the closing 15 minutes to edge the Jaguars. Standout WR DeAndre Hopkins has recorded 319 of his total 776 receiving yards in the fourth quarter, along with three of his five TD catches. However, the biggest closer for the Texans in the fourth quarter actually hasn’t been the offense: it’s the defense. Houston is giving up only 4.1 points per fourth quarter on the year – third best in the NFL – allowing the team to outscore opponents by eight points in the fourth act of each contest.

Daily fantasy watch: Buy - WR DeAndre Hopkins, Sell - Titans D/ST

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (+6, 41)

Seahawks’ poor pass protection vs. Cowboys’ improving pass rush

When Russell Wilson gets sacked in AT&T Stadium Sunday, at least he’ll have that awesome Jumbo-Tron to look at rather than the usual blue sky or beams and girders. It may seem a little presumptuous to say the Seahawks QB will get sacked in Dallas, but with the way Seattle has protected its franchise player it’s a safe bet Wilson ends up on his back more than a few times.

The Seahawks have allowed Wilson to get sacked 31 times this season – five more than any other teams in the NFL (and that other team is Cleveland). Wilson was sacked five times in a blowout win over San Francisco last Thursday – a Niners pass rush that has only nine sacks prior to that game. The offensive line has been blown up by the blitz, which according to ESPN, has sacked Wilson 18.6 percent of the time when rushing more than four.

It’s well established that Hardy is not a nice person, and he’s done his part to play the role of the bad guy, but this guy can flat out crush QBs. He has three sacks in his first two games back from suspension, has recorded a sack in six straight games going back to 2013, and gets some help on the pass rush with rookie DE Randy Gregory getting healthy and second-year DE/LB DeMarcus Lawrence expected to play. Dallas has seven sacks in the last two games, a big turnaround from its total of just six combined in the four games previous.

Daily fantasy watch: Buy - Dallas D/ST, Sell - QB Russell Wilson

**Udog** · 10-30-2015, 02:25 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 8

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta

Game 255-256
November 1, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
125.568
Atlanta
130.909
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 4 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 7 1/2
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+7 1/2); Over

NY Giants @ New Orleans

Game 257-258
November 1, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
131.620
New Orleans
132.717
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 1
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 3 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(+3 1/2); Under

San Francisco @ St. Louis

Game 259-260
November 1, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
127.253
St. Louis
138.430
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
St. Louis
by 11
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
St. Louis
by 8
39 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
St. Louis
(-8); Over

Arizona @ Cleveland

Game 261-262
November 1, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
136.054
Cleveland
129.159
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 7
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 4 1/2
46
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(-4 1/2); Over

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh

Game 263-264
November 1, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
139.906
Pittsburgh
136.589
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 3 1/2
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
Pick
48
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
Over

San Diego @ Baltimore

Game 265-266
November 1, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Diego
126.748
Baltimore
132.336
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 5 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 3
50
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(-3); Over

Tennessee @ Houston

Game 267-268
November 1, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
124.678
Houston
125.773
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 4
No Total
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+4); N/A

NY Jets @ Oakland

Game 269-270
November 1, 2015 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
131.587
Oakland
132.508
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 1
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Jets
by 2 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(+2 1/2); Under

Seattle @ Dallas

Game 271-272
November 1, 2015 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
136.417
Dallas
126.358
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 10
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 6
41
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-6); Over

Detroit @ Kansas City

Game 251-252
November 1, 2015 @ 9:30 am

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
126.877
Kansas City
134.476
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 7 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 5 1/2
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-5 1/2); Under

Green Bay @ Denver

Game 273-274
November 1, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
140.096
Denver
139.129
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 1
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 3 1/2
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+3 1/2); Over

Minnesota @ Chicago

Game 253-254
November 1, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
130.155
Chicago
131.567
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 1 1/2
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 2 1/2
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+2 1/2); Under

Indianapolis @ Carolina

Game 275-276
November 2, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
132.616
Carolina
135.517
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 3
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 7
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(+7); Under

**Udog** · 10-30-2015, 02:26 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 8

Chiefs (2-5) vs Lions (1-6) (@ London)-- Two teams having dismal season head over pond here; Detroit is on road for first time since Monday night loss in Seattle- they lost two of three on homestand- its possible Stafford broke non-throwing hand Sunday. Lions allowed 7.3+ ypa in every game this season; not good. Detroit hammered KC 48-3 last time teams met in 2011, long time ago. Chiefs are +5 in turnovers last three games, but scored only 3.6 ppp on ten red zone drives; not good- they haven't averaged more than 7.0 ypa any game this season. NFC North teams are 10-7 vs spread outside its division (4-5 as underdogs); AFC West teams are 8-12 (4-6 as favorites). Last three Detroit games went over total; last three Chief games stayed under.

Vikings (4-2) @ Bears (2-4)-- Home side won last six series games; Vikings are 1-13 in last 14 visits here, losing last seven, with four of last five by 7+ points. Last year, NFL teams were 11-20-1 vs spread coming off a bye; this year, they're 8-2. Bears won four of last five post-bye games; they're 7-4 against spread in last 11 tries as post-bye dog. Chicago's last three games were decided by total of six points. Vikings won four of last five games since opening loss in SF, with only loss by FG in Denver; they're 4-0 on carpet this year, 0-2 on natural grass. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 4-5 vs spread. Over is 3-1 in last four Viking games, 1-3 in last four Chicago games. If playoffs started today, Minnesota would be in #6 NFC seed; this is a game they normally lose- win here would be big plus.

Buccaneers (2-4) @ Falcons (6-1)-- Atlanta is 6-1, despite trailing in 4th quarter in four of six wins, plus lackluster 10-7 win in Nashville Sunday; since 2012, they're 8-11 as a home favorite. Falcons won 10 of last 13 games vs Tampa Bay, winning six of last seven here, with last three all by 8+ points. Bucs lost three of last four games but scored 30.3 ppg in last three, as WR Evans (8 catches/164 yds LW) is bonafide star. Tampa also ran ball for 171. ypg in last three games so they're improved team with balanced offense, but blowing 24-0 lead in Washington LW hurts. Atlanta held last four opponents to 81 or less yards on ground. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 5-16-1 vs spread. Last three Tampa Bay games went over the total.

Giants (4-3) @ Saints (3-4)-- Eli Manning comes home for this one, as well as both Giant WRs, Beckham/Randle (LSU guys); Giants lost last four trips to Superdome; their last win here was in '93 (last three losses here all by 21+). Since '11, Big Blue is 15-11 as road dogs, 2-1 this year. Saints won three of last four games after 0-3 start; they're +5 in turnovers in last two games, after being -5 in first five. NO is 21-10-1 as a home favorite last 4.5 years, 1-1 so far this year. Last six series games were decided by 7+ points. Saints have seven TDs on last nine red zone drives. Giants have 16 takeaways, eight in last two weeks. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 3-6 vs spread, 2-3 on road. NFC South favorites are 8-3 outside its division, 5-2 at home.

49ers (2-5) @ Rams (3-3)-- Emergence of rookie RB Gurley has improved Rams at .500 at 3-3; they scored 24+ points in three wins, 10-6-10 in losses. Last three games, St Louis ran ball for average of 152.6 ypg, has 10 takeaways (+5). 49ers are 0-3 on road, allowing 40.0 ppg (allow 15 ppg at home); they're 10-3-1 in last 14 series games, 6-2 in last eight here-- road team won both meetings LY. Rams are 6-6 as home favorite under Fisher, 1-1 so far this year; Niners are 3-5-1 in last nine games as road dog. Four of last five St Louis games stayed under; four of last five 49er games went over. 49ers played last Thursday; teams are 9-3 vs spread this year coming off Thursday game (7-1 if underdogs). Rams opponents are just 9 for last 36 on third down.

Cardinals (5-2) @ Browns (2-5)-- Cleveland QB McCown (shoulder) is iffy here, Manziel would make second '15 start if he can't go. Arizona has long travel on short week after win over Ravens Monday night; Cardinals are 2-1 on road this year; all five of their wins are by 8+ points. Under Arians, Arizona is 14-6-1 as a favorite, 5-2 on road. Since '12, Cleveland is 9-5 as a home dog; they're 1-2 at home this year, losing to Oakland/Denver. Home side won three of last four series games; Redbirds were last here in '03. Over is 5-2 in Arizona games, 6-1 in Cleveland tilts. NFC North teams are 11-7-1 vs spread outside its division, 5-1 at home. NFC West teams are 8-10, 3-5 on road. Browns turned ball over seven times in last two games, after turning it over only three times in previous four.

Bengals (6-0) @ Steelers (4-3)-- Big Ben expected back for Pitt, which won eight of last ten games with Cincy, four of last five here (all wins by 10+ points). This will be first game this season Steelers have Roethlisberger/Bell together on field. 6-0 Bengals are off their bye; teams are 8-2 vs spread off a bye this year, but Cincy is 4-11-1 in last 16 post-bye games- they've averaged 7.4+ ypa in five of six games. Steelers ran ball for 152.5 ypg in last four games, without passing threat that Big Ben provides; they're 4-0 allowing 20 or less points, 0-3 when they allow more. Cincinnati scored 24+ points in every game this season. Home side is 9-21-1 vs spread in divisional games this year. Last four Bengal games went over total; last five Steeler games stayed under.

Chargers (2-5) @ Ravens (1-6)-- Couple of sliding teams; San Diego lost five of its last six games; they've given up 24+ points in all seven games. 1-6 Baltimore has already played four games out west, losing all four; they're 7-13 as home favorite since '12 (0-2 this year, losing SU to Bengals/Browns). Chargers are 14-8-1 as road dogs, 1-2 this year- this is their 4th trip east of Mississippi this year. These teams split last 10 meetings; three of last four were decided by 5 or less points- Chargers (+6) won 34-33 here LY, Rivers threw for 376 yards in game where Ravens were +2 in turnovers, had 15-yard edge in field position. AFC West non-divisional road underdogs are 3-5 against spread; NFC North favorites are 6-3.

Titans (1-5) @ Texans (2-5)-- Not much to choose from here; Tennessee lost its last five games, scoring 10 ppg in last three (three TDs on last 32 drives). Houston lost three of last four games, allowing 34 ppg; they've trailed 28-0/41-0 at halftime already this year, had to cut their backup QB for non-football reasons. JJ Watt is banged-up; coach is on hot seat. Texans won five of last six series games,, with four wins by 14+ points; Titans lost three in row here by 24-6-24 points. This is Tennessee's first road game since Week 2; they won at Tampa, lost 28-14 in Cleveland. If Mariota can't go, backup Mettenberger is 0-7 in his career as NFL starter. Last four Houston games, four of six Titan games went over total.

Jets (4-2) @ Raiders (3-3)-- Home side won six of last seven series games; Jets won six of last eight, but are here for first time since 2011. NJ (-5) beat Raiders 19-14 at home LY, outgaining Oakland 402-158; Jets have 14 takeaways (+8) in four wins, one (-4) in their two losses; they allowed 14 or less points in three of four wins, 24-30 in losses to Eagles and Patriots. Improved Raiders scored 27+ points in their three wins, 13-20-10 in losses, but they lost two of three home games. Jets are 21 of last 44 on 3rd down; they're 1-1 on road, winning in Indy, losing at Foxboro- they won in London on a neutral field. Four of six Oakland games went over total. AFC East non-divisional faves are 6-4-1 vs spread; AFC West underdogs are 4-6.

Seahawks (3-4) @ Cowboys (2-4)-- Dallas won four of five series games since losing '06 playoff game after Romo botched snap from center on a kick. Cassel gets his second start after tossing three picks in Swamp (-4 TOs) last week; Cowboys are 0-4 since Romo was injured, losing by 11-6-24-7 points- their defense didn't force turnover in any of their four losses (-7). Seattle allowed total of 13 points in its three wins; they gave up 27+ points in all four losses; Seahawks are 1-3 on road with two 3-point losses; they played last week on Thursday- teams are 9-3 vs spread coming off Thursday night games. Seattle opponents are 17 of 63 (27%) on third down in five games since Chancellor came back. Seahawks lost last three visits to Dallas, by 25-21-10 points.

Packers (6-0) @ Broncos (6-0)-- Pair of unbeatens coming off bye, with Broncos as home dog on night they honor owner Pat Bowlen, who is very ill. Denver hasn't been a home dog since 2012; they're 1-4 in last five games as home dog. Green Bay won last visit here in OT in 2007, its last visit here and only win in six trips to Denver. Packers are 6-2 in last eight games as road favorite, 2-0 this year, winning 31-23 in Chicago, 17-3 at SF. Denver defense scored three TDs, offense only nine; they beat Ravens 19-13, Vikings 23-20 in only home games so far. Packers have been +1 in turnovers in all six games so far; they scored 24+ in five of six games, SF being exception. Last three Green Bay games stayed under the total.

Colts (3-4) @ Panthers (6-0)-- Indy is house divided with lame-duck coach; all three of its wins are vs bad division rivals, with two of three on road. Colts are 2-0 as underdogs this season, they're 5-4 in last nine games as road underdog. Carolina won four of last five series games; visitors won four of those five. Indy split pair here; last visit was in '07. Carolina is 6-0, with home wins by 7-5-11 points; they've run ball for 152.6 ypg in last five tilts. NFC South teams are 8-3 as non-divisional favorites, 5-2 at home; AFC South road dogs are 1-5. Panthers are 9-3-2 vs spread in last 14 games as home favorite; they scored 10+ points in 11 of 12 halves this season- consistent. Three of last four Carolina games went over total.

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 8 (Thursday, October 29 - Monday, November 2)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 8 (Thursday, October 29 - Monday, November 2)

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